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Albertsons Companies is one of the largest grocers in the country, with around 20 grocery banners in its portfolio boasting around 2,200 stores in 34 states. Aside from its eponymous brand, Albertsons, the company owns major chains like Safeway and Vons, as well as smaller regional banners.
With Q1 2024 under wraps, we take a closer look at visit trends to some of Albertsons Companies’ main banners, examine the top-performing chains by state, and dive into the demographics in the company’s two largest markets.
Diving into 2023’s visits shows that the company’s eight major banners – Albertsons, Safeway, Vons, Jewel-Osco, ACME Markets, Shaw's Supermarket, United Supermarkets, and Tom Thumb – enjoyed year-over-year (YoY) visit growth during every quarters of the year. Visits to Jewel-Osco, and Shaw’s Supermarket were particularly elevated, with Q4 2023 visits YoY up 5.8%, and 5.9%, respectively.
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Albertsons Companies’ positive performance has continued in 2024. Visits to most of the chains remained positive YoY in January despite the chilling retail impact of early 2024’s arctic blast, and all banners saw significant growth in February and March.
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Albertsons Companies is headquartered in Boise, Idaho, and its eponymous banner is highly popular in the western United States. But the company has also gained a foothold in the South, Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast – and solidified its dominance in the West – through several successful mergers.
The company’s strategy of acquiring regional channels means that most states now have an Albertsons Companies’ banner catering to local grocery shoppers. Nationwide, the company’s most visited chains are Albertsons and Safeway – likely due to the sheer number of locations – but regional chains like Tom Thumb in Texas and Jewel-Osco in the Midwest are still the reigning Albertsons Companies banners in their areas.
California and Texas, the country's two most populous states, also boast the highest number of Albertsons Companies-owned grocery chains. Analyzing the demographic differences between the trade areas of the top three Albertsons Companies banners in each of the two states shows how the company leverages its banner variety to reach a larger audience.
According to the STI:Popstats 2023 dataset, the median household income (HHI) in Texas is $75.9K. Two of the top three Albertsons Companies’ banners in the state had a trade area median HHI below the Texas statewide median – United Supermarkets at $58.7K/year, and Albertsons at $68.3K/year – while Tom Thumb drew visitors from neighborhoods with a median HHI of $99.5K. And in California, although all three most visited Albertsons Companies banners drew visitors from neighborhoods with a median income above the statewide median, the trade area HHI also exhibited a range – from $99.2K/year for Albertsons to $115.0K/year for Safeway.
The variance in median HHI by banner and state highlights the benefit of operating grocery banners that can attract a range of shoppers from all along the income scale. By offering shopping options that cater to shoppers of all kinds, Albertsons Companies can hope to maximize its market reach and attract a diverse array of consumers.
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Albertsons Companies has set up shop across the country and offers a wide range of shoppers multiple grocery experiences across regions and price points. Will its grocery banners continue to see elevated foot traffic into 2024?
Visit placer.ai to stay on top of the latest grocery developments.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
About the Mall Index: The Index analyzes data from 100 top-tier indoor malls, 100 open-air shopping centers (not including outlet malls) and 100 outlet malls across the country, in both urban and suburban areas. Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the country.
Shopping centers are making a comeback. Following an unusually cold January that impacted retail visit trends across the country, mall visits increased year-over-year (YoY) in February 2024 and rose even higher in March: Last month, traffic to Indoor Malls, Open-Air Shopping Centers, and Outlet Malls was up 9.7%, 10.1%, and 10.7% respectively, compared to March 2023.
The positive visitation trends along with the rising consumer sentiment numbers capping off the first quarter of 2024 bode well for retail in general and discretionary categories in particular – and may signal the end of the retail challenges that plagued much of 2022 and 2023.
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Comparing Q1 visits to malls in 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 to Q1 2019 further highlights the positive trajectory of the ongoing mall recovery. The data reveals that the pre-pandemic visit gap has been steadily narrowing over the past four years across all shopping center formats. And in Q1 2024, visits to Open-Air Shopping Centers even exceeded 2019 levels for the first time since the lockdowns – indicating that retail has not yet fully settled into a “new normal” and the post-COVID recovery story is still being written.
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But even as mall visit numbers may be returning to pre-pandemic levels, analyzing the visitor journey for malls in Q1 2019 and Q1 2023 – which looks at where mall visitors were directly before and after their mall visit – indicates that some mall-based shopping habits have shifted.
Between Q1 2019 and Q1 2024, the share of shoppers coming to a mall directly from home or returning home directly following the mall visit decreased. And during the same period, the share of mall visitors coming from or going to dining venues or other retail locations before or after a mall visit generally increased across mall formats. The change in visitor journey between 2019 and 2024 indicates that more consumers are now visiting malls as one of multiple stops within a larger outing.
The fact that consumers are still visiting malls, even if they are no longer treating shopping centers like a one-stop-shop can be seen as another testament of malls’ resilience: Despite the string of big-name retailers expanding off-mall in recent years, shoppers continue incorporating malls into their shopping and dining routines – even as they expand their outing to add stops to off-mall shopping or dining locations as well.
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Despite the years of mall apocalypse predictions, consumer behavior continues to showcase the central role that malls play in the U.S. retail landscape. And even as consumer habits change, top shopping centers have proven capable at adapting their offerings to current consumer appetites to maintain their relevance in 2024 and beyond.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit our blog at placer.ai.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
The Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index: The office building index analyzes foot traffic data from some 1,000 office buildings across the country. It only includes commercial office buildings, and commercial office buildings with retail offerings on the first floor (like an office building that might include a national coffee chain on the ground floor). It does NOT include mixed-use buildings that are both residential and commercial.
Is return-to-office picking up steam?
Last month, location intelligence indicated that the office recovery needle was starting to move once again. Whether due to stricter corporate mandates – especially in the finance sector – or to employees seeking to reap the rewards of in-person collaboration and mentoring, office activity appeared to be on an upswing.
But what’s happened since then? Has the momentum worn off, or is RTO still trending on the ground?
Hybrid work may be here to stay – but the situation on the ground remains very much in flux. Last month, office visits nationwide were just 32.7% below what they were in March 2019 (pre-pandemic). This represents a significant narrowing of the visit gap in relation to March 2022 and March 2023 – when visits were down 48.2% and 36.3%, respectively.
And comparing monthly visits to a March 2022 baseline shows that visits last month were among the highest they’ve been since COVID. Only August 2023 (which had two more working days than March) and October 2023 featured higher visitation rates.
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Drilling down into the data for eleven major cities nationwide shows that Miami and New York are holding firmly onto their regional RTO leads – with less than a 20% visit gap compared to pre-pandemic levels. And RTO appears likely to continue apace in both cities, driven by tech companies in Miami and finance firms in the Big Apple. Indeed, in Miami, visits to office buildings in March 2024 were the highest they’ve been in four years. Washington, D.C., Dallas, Atlanta, and Denver also outperformed the nationwide baseline compared to pre-COVID, while Chicago, Boston, Houston, Los Angeles, and San Francisco lagged behind.
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But despite bringing up the rear for overall post-COVID office recovery, San Francisco has been experiencing outsize YoY office visit growth for some time now. And in March 2024, the city continued to lead the regional YoY visit recovery pack – tied for first place with Washington, D.C.
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Given San Francisco’s stubbornly large post-COVID visit gap, it may come as no surprise that the city’s office vacancy rate is higher than it’s ever been. But demand for office space in San Francisco is back on the rise, leading market observers to conclude that bright times may be ahead for the local market.
San Francisco’s strong YoY office visit performance may be a reflection of this increased demand, providing another sign of good things to come in the Golden Gate city.
Remote work carries plenty of benefits, but a variety of factors – from Gen Z work-from-home fatigue to the better wages and opportunities available to on-site employees – are driving increased office attendance. And if March 2024 data is any indication, further shifts in the RTO/WFH balance may yet be in the cards.
For more data-driven return-to-office updates, follow Placer.ai.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Every year in March and early April, thousands of young people descend on Florida beaches to soak up some sun, kick back with friends, and have a good time. But while the influx of revelers can be a boon to local businesses, some municipalities are pushing back against the mayhem. This year, Miami Beach famously announced its intention to “break up” with spring break (“It’s not us, it’s you”) – instituting a series of restrictive measures, from curfews to elevated parking fees, designed to temper the crowds.
But what’s happening on the ground? How did this year’s spring break impact local businesses in key Florida destinations like Miami, Key West, Panama City Beach, and Daytona Beach? Which retail segments continued to benefit from the excitement – and who were the visitors driving foot traffic to their venues?
Florida is home to the most-searched spring break destinations in the United States. And perhaps thanks to the influx of vacationers, location intelligence shows that Quick-Service Restaurants (QSR) and Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries, & Dessert Shops in Florida spring break hotspots enjoy significant annual visit boosts during March and early April.
The extent of the seasonal boost varies between CBSAs – and though this year’s traffic spikes were slightly lower than last year’s bumps, the two dining segments continued to benefit strongly from spring break-fueled visit bumps in 2024.
Visits to QSR & Fast-Food venues and Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries, & Dessert Shops in Panama City – known as the spring break capital of the world – were up 57.6% and 56.9%, respectively, during the week of March 11th 2024, compared to an early January 2023 baseline. This represents a minor decline from the comparable period last year (the week of March 13th, 2023), when visits were up a respective 59.2% and 68.6%.
QSR and coffee and breakfast chains in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Key West, and Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach CBSAs also experienced significant visit spikes during the week of March 11th, 2024. Though the March foot traffic increases in these CBSAs were smaller than those seen in Panama City, they were nearly on par with the visit bumps seen in the comparable period of 2023.
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Who are the visitors driving this spring break dining activity? Drilling down into the data for leading Panama City QSR and coffee chains shows that college student influxes are likely a major contributing factor.
In July 2023 – during Panama City’s peak summer season – the captured markets of local Whataburger, Dunkin’, Starbucks, and Chick-fil-A locations were nearly devoid of STI: Landscape’s “Collegian” segment – a category encompassing currently-enrolled college students. But in March 2024, the share of this segment in the brands’ captured markets skyrocketed.
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Analyzing the audiences of local Panama City resorts reveals a similar pattern. During the month of July, the captured markets of SpringHill Suites and Holiday Inn Resort – two venues popular among spring breakers – included miniscule shares of Collegians. But in March, the share of college students in the resorts’ captured markets jumped to 13.8% and 10.0%, respectively – highlighting the role of undergrads in driving hotel visits during this period.
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Spring break is party time – and Florida has traditionally been at the center of it all.
How will 2024 spring break continue to unfold this year in the Sunshine State? And what other retail categories stand to benefit from the excitement?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven civic and retail analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
DC residents and businesses have been on tenterhooks ever since plans were announced in December 2023 to move the Caps and Wizards to Potomac Yard in Alexandria, VA. Original plans called for a new Wizards practice facility, a separate performing arts center, a media studio, new hotels, a convention center, housing and shopping. Meanwhile, DC mayor Muriel Bowser worked furiously to keep the teams, eventually putting together a $500 million+ deal that was officially approved in the last week, so that the teams would stay in the District until “at least 2050.” That is good news for those businesses by Gallery Place/Chinatown, and the teams can keep the Washington moniker, as opposed to potentially being the “National Landing” teams were they to have moved to the Potomac Yard area.
Migration to the Mountain States, named for the sprawling Rocky Mountain range that runs through the region, has been on an upward trend in recent years. And one state in particular – Utah – has received an impressive influx of new residents.
Which areas are experiencing the most growth? And what is driving migration to the Beehive State? We take a closer look.
Utah, with its iconic national parks and burgeoning tech industry, is growing fast. According to Placer.ai’s Migration Trends Report, Utah experienced an 5.5% rise in population between January 2020 and January 2024, partially driven by inbound domestic migration: 1.8% of the state’s January 2024 population moved in between January 2020 and January 2024.
Utah has a relatively young population – the median age in Utah (according to the 2021 ACS 5-Year Projection dataset) is 31. But relocators to the state seem to be coming from older states – the weighted median age in the states of origins of newcomers moving to Utah over the past four years was 38.
But although Utah’s median age is lower than the median age in the states of origin, the median HHI in the Beehive State is higher than in its feeder states. Between January 2020 and January 2024, the weighted median HHI in the states feeding migration to Utah was $71K/year, lower than the Utah median of $79K/year (although higher than the national average of $69.0K/year).
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Although Utah as a whole has seen positive net migration over the past four years, the new residents are not evenly distributed across the state’s major metropolitan areas. Inbound domestic migration was particularly strong in the Provo-Orem and Ogden-Clearfield CBSAs (core-based statistical areas), with both states also seeing significant increases in their population (10.7% and 5.1%, respectively) over the past four years. But during the same period, the migrated share of the population of Utah’s largest CBSA – Salt Lake City – has declined, and the overall population in the Salt Lake City CBSA grew by just 1.0%. So what is driving migration to Provo-Orem and Ogden-Clearfield?
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January 2020 to January 2024 migration data reveals that relocators to Provo and Ogden come from CBSAs with a lower median age and HHI compared to those moving to Salt Lake City: Newcomers to the Provo-Orem and Ogden-Clearfield CBSAs came from CBSAs with a weighted median HHI of $73K and $72K, respectively, compared to a $75K median HHI for CBSAs feeding migration to the Salt Lake City CBSA. And the weighted median age in the CBSAs of origin for Provo-Orem and Ogden Clearfield was 25 and 32, respectively, compared to 33 in the CBSAs of origin for Salt Lake City.
The movement of younger people from lower-HHI areas to these CBSAs may indicate that many of those relocating to Utah to benefit from the state’s robust economy are specifically choosing the Provo-Orem and Ogden-Clearfield metro areas.
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Niche’s Neighborhood Grades – available in the Placer.ai Marketplace – assigns grades to various types of regions based on a variety of factors, including job opportunities. And comparing the Niche rating for “Jobs” assigned to Utah’s three largest CBSAs with the aggregate “Jobs” grade assigned to the CBSAs of origin also suggests that Provo and Ogden’s economic opportunities are driving migration to these smaller metro areas.
All three Utah CBSAs analyzed received a higher “Jobs” grade than their CBSAs of origin – indicating that the employment opportunities in all three metro areas are likely drawing newcomers. But while Salt Lake City only got a “B+” in “Jobs” – just one grade up from the aggregate grade assigned to its areas of origin – Provo-Orem and Ogden-Clearfield got a “Jobs” grade of “A-”, or two notches up from the “Jobs” grade in their CBSAs of origin. The highly robust job markets in these smaller CBSAs may explain why newcomers seem to prefer Provo-Orem and Ogden-Clearfield to Salt Lake City.
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Utah’s population growth makes it one of the most exciting states to watch, and the state’s promising employment opportunities seems to be a major draw for newcomers to the state.
Will Utah continue to experience population growth?
Visit placer.ai to keep up with the latest migration trends.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
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1) Value Wins in 2025: Discount & Dollar Stores and Off-Price Apparel are outperforming as consumers prioritize value and the “treasure-hunt” experience.
2) Small Splurges Over Big Projects: Clothing and Home Furnishing traffic remains strong as shoppers favor accessible wardrobe updates and decor refreshes instead of major renovations.
3) Big-Ticket Weakness: Electronics and Home Improvement visits continue to lag, reflecting a continued deferment of larger purchases.
4) Bifurcation in Apparel: Visits to off-price and luxury segments are growing, while general apparel, athleisure, and department stores face ongoing pressures from consumer trade-downs.
5) Income Dynamics Shape Apparel: Higher-income shoppers sustain luxury and athleisure, while off-price is driving traffic from more lower-income consumers.
6) Beauty Normalizes but Stays Relevant: After a pandemic-driven surge, YoY declines likely indicate that beauty visits are stabilizing; shorter trips are giving way to longer visits as retailers deploy new tech and immersive experiences.
Economic headwinds, including tariffs and higher everyday costs, are limiting discretionary budgets and prompting consumers to make more selective choices about where they spend. But despite these pressures, foot traffic to several discretionary retail categories continues to thrive year-over-year (YoY).
Of the discretionary categories analyzed, fitness and apparel had the strongest year-over-year traffic trends – likely thanks to consumers finding perceived value in these segments.
Fitness and apparel (boosted by off-price) appeal to value-driven, experience seeking consumers – fitness thanks to its membership model of unlimited visits for an often low fee, and off-price with its discount prices and treasure-hunt dynamic. Both categories may also be riding a cultural wave tied to the growing use of GLP-1s, as more consumers pursue fitness goals and refresh their wardrobes to match changing lifestyles and sizes.
Big-ticket categories, including electronics, also faced significant challenges, as tighter consumer budgets hamper growth in the space. Traffic to home improvement retailers also generally declined, as lagging home sales and consumers putting off costly renovations likely contributed to the softness in the space.
But home furnishing visits pulled ahead in July and August 2025 – benefitting from strong performances at discount chains such as HomeGoods – suggesting that consumers are directing their home-oriented spending towards more accessible decor.
The beauty sector – typically a resilient "affordable luxury" category – also experienced declines in recent months. The slowdown can be partially attributed to stabilization following several years of intense growth, but it may also mean that consumers are simplifying their beauty routines or shifting their beauty buying online.
> Traffic to fitness and apparel chains – led by off-price – continued to grow YoY in 2025, as value and experiences continue to draw consumers.
> Consumers are shopping for accessible home decor upgrades to refresh their space rather than undertaking major renovations.
> Shoppers are holding off on big-ticket purchases, leading to YoY declines in the electronics and home improvement categories.
> Beauty has experienced softening traffic trends as the sector stabilizes following its recent years of hypergrowth as shoppers simplify routines and shift some of their spending online.
After two years of visit declines, the Home Furnishings category rebounded in 2025, with visits up 4.9% YoY between January and August. By contrast, Home Improvement continued its multi-year downward trend, though the pace of decline appears to have slowed.
So what’s fueling Home Furnishings’ resurgence while Home Improvement visits remain soft? Probably a combination of factors, including a more affluent shopper base and a product mix that includes a variety of lower-ticket items.
On the audience side, this category draws a much larger share of visits from suburban and urban areas, with a median household income well above that of home improvement shoppers. The differences are especially pronounced when analyzing the audience in their captured markets – indicating that the gap stems not just from store locations, but from meaningful differences in the types of consumers each category attracts.
Home improvement's larger share of rural visits is not accidental – home improvement leaders have been intentionally expanding into smaller markets for a while. But while betting on rural markets is likely to pay off down the line, home improvement may continue to face headwinds in the near future as its rural shopper base grapples with fewer discretionary dollars.
On the merchandise side, home improvement chains cater to larger renovations and higher-cost projects – and have likely been impacted by the slowdown in larger-ticket purchases which is also impacting the electronics space. Meanwhile, home furnishing chains carry a large assortment of lower-ticket items, including home decor, accessories, and tableware.
Consumers are still spending more time at home now than they were pre-COVID, and investing in comfortable living spaces is more important than ever. And although many high-income consumers are also tightening their belts, upgrading tableware or even a piece of furniture is still much cheaper than undertaking a renovation – which could explain the differences in traffic trends.
Traditional apparel, mid-tier department stores, and activewear chains all experienced similar levels of YoY traffic declines in 2025 YTD, as shown in the graph above. But analyzing traffic data from 2021 shows that each segment's dip is part of a trajectory unique to that segment.
Traffic to mid-tier department stores has been trending downward since 2021, a shift tied not only to macroeconomic headwinds but also to structural changes in the sector. The pandemic accelerated e-commerce adoption, hitting department stores particularly hard as consumers seeking one-stop shopping and broad assortments increasingly turned to the convenience of online channels.
Traffic to traditional apparel chains has also not fully recovered from the pandemic, but the segment did consistently outperform mid-tier department stores and luxury retailers between 2021 and 2024. But in H1 2025, the dynamic with luxury shifted, so that traffic trends at luxury apparel retailers are now stronger than at traditional apparel both YoY and compared to Q1 2019. This highlights the current bifurcation of consumer spending also in the apparel space, as luxury and off-price segments outperform mid-market chains.
In contrast, the activewear & athleisure category continues to outperform its pre-pandemic baseline, despite experiencing a slight YoY softening in 2025 as consumers tighten their budgets. The category has capitalized on post-lockdown lifestyle shifts, and comfort-driven wardrobes that blur the line between work, fitness, and leisure remain entrenched consumer staples several years on.
The two segments with the highest YoY growth – off-price and luxury – are at the two ends of the spectrum in terms of household income levels, highlighting the bifurcation that has characterized much of the retail space in 2025. And luxury and off-price are also benefiting from larger consumer trends that are boosting performance at both premium and value-focused retailers.
In-store traffic behavior reveals that these two segments enjoy the longest average dwell times in the apparel category, with an average visit to a luxury or off-price retailer lasting 39.2 and 41.3 minutes, respectively. This suggests that consumers are drawn to the experiential aspect of both segments – treasure hunting at off-price chains or indulging in a sense of prestige at a luxury retailer. Together, these patterns highlight that – despite appealing to different consumer groups – both ends of the market are thriving by offering shopping experiences that foster longer engagement.
> Off-price and luxury segments are outperforming, while general apparel, athleisure, and department store visits lag YoY under tariff pressures and consumer trade-downs.
> Looking over the longer term reveals that athleisure is still far ahead of its pre-pandemic baseline – even if YoY demand has softened.
> Luxury and off-price both are thriving by offering shopping experiences that foster longer engagement.
The beauty sector has long benefitted from the “lipstick effect” — the tendency for consumers to indulge in small luxuries even when discretionary spending is constrained. And while the beauty category’s softening in today’s cautious spending environment could suggest that this effect has weakened, a longer view of the data tells a more nuanced story.
Beauty visits grew significantly between 2021 and 2024, fueled by a confluence of factors including post-pandemic “revenge shopping,” demand for bolder looks as consumers returned to social life, and new store openings and retail partnerships. Against that backdrop, recent YoY traffic dips are likely a sign of stabilization rather than true declines. Social commerce, and minimalist skincare routines may be moderating in-store traffic, but shoppers are still engaged, even as they blend online and offline shopping or seek out lower-cost alternatives to maximize value.
Analysis of average visit duration for three leading beauty chains – Ulta Beauty, Bath & Body Works, and Sally Beauty Supply – highlights the shifting role but continued relevance of physical stores in the space.
Average visit duration decreased post-pandemic – likely due to more purposeful trips and increased online product discovery. But that trend began to reverse in H1 2025, signaling the changing role of physical stores. Enhanced tech for in-store product exploration and rich experiences may be helping drive deeper engagement, underscoring beauty retail’s staying power even in a more measured spending environment.
Bottom Line:
> Beauty’s slight YoY visit declines point to a period of normalization following a post-pandemic boom, while longer-term trends show the category remains stronger than pre-pandemic levels.
> Visits grew shorter post-pandemic, driven by more purposeful trips and increased online product discovery – but dwell time is now lengthening again, signaling renewed in-store engagement driven by tech-enabled discovery and immersive experiences.
Foot traffic data highlight major differences in the recent performance of various discretionary apparel categories. Off-price, fitness, and home furnishings are pulling ahead, well-positioned to keep capitalizing on shifting priorities. Luxury also remains resilient, likely thanks to its higher-income visitor base.
At the same time, beauty’s normalization and the slowdown in mid-tier apparel, electronics, and home improvement show that caution persists across discretionary budgets. Moving forward, retailers that align with consumers’ demand for value, accessible upgrades, and immersive experiences may be best placed to thrive in this era of selective spending.
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1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery formats grew year-over-year in Q2 2025, with traditional grocers posting their first rebound since early 2024.
2) Value grocers slow: After leading during the 2022–24 trade-down wave, value grocer growth has decelerated as that shift matures.
3) Fresh formats surge: Now the fastest-growing segment, fueled by affluent shoppers seeking health, wellness, and convenience.
4) Bifurcation widens: Growth concentrated at both the low-income (value) and high-income (fresh) ends, highlighting polarized spending.
5) Shopping missions diverge: Short trips are rising, supporting fresh formats, while traditional grocers retain loyal stock-up customers and value chains capture fill-in trips through private labels.
6) Traditional grocers adapt: H-E-B and Harris Teeter outperformed by tailoring strategies to their core geographies and demographics.Bifurcation of Consumer Spending Help Fresh Format Lead Grocery Growth
Grocery traffic across all four major categories – value grocers, fresh format, traditional grocery, ethnic grocers – was up year over year in Q2 2025 as shoppers continue to engage with a wide range of grocery formats. Traditional grocery posted its first YoY traffic increase since Q1 2024, while ethnic grocers maintained their steady pattern of modest but consistent gains.
Value grocers, which dominated growth through most of 2024 as shoppers prioritized affordability, continued to expand but have now ceded leadership to fresh-format grocers. Rising food costs between 2022 and 2024 drove many consumers to chains like Aldi and Lidl, but much of this “trade-down” movement has already occurred. Although price sensitivity still shapes consumer choices – keeping the value segment on an upward trajectory – its growth momentum has slowed, making it less of a driver for the overall sector.
Fresh-format grocers have now taken the lead, posting the strongest YoY traffic gains of any category in 2025. This segment, anchored by players like Sprouts, appeals to the highest-income households of the four categories, signaling a growing influence of affluent shoppers on the competitive grocery landscape. Despite accounting for just 7.0% of total grocery visits in H1 2025, the segment’s rapid gains point to a broader shift: premium brands emphasizing health and wellness are emerging as the primary engine of growth in the grocery sector.
The fact that value grocers and fresh-format grocers – segments with the lowest and highest median household incomes among their customer bases – are the two categories driving the most growth underscores how the bifurcation of consumer spending is playing out in the grocery space as well. On one end, price-sensitive shoppers continue to seek out affordable options, while on the other, affluent consumers are fueling demand for premium, health-oriented formats. This dual-track growth pattern highlights how widening economic divides are reshaping competitive dynamics in grocery retail.
1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery categories posted YoY traffic gains in Q2 2025.
2) Traditional grocery rebound: First YoY increase since Q1 2024.
3) Ethnic grocers: Continued steady but modest upward trend.
4) Value grocers: Still growing, but slowing after most trade-down activity already occurred (2022–24).
5) Fresh formats: Now the fastest-growing segment, driven by affluent shoppers and interest in health & wellness.
6) Market shift: Premium, health-oriented brands are becoming the new growth driver in grocery.
7) Bifurcation of spending: Growth at both value and fresh-format grocers highlights a polarization in consumer spending patterns that is reshaping grocery competition.
Over the past two years, short grocery trips (under 10 minutes) have grown far more quickly than longer visits. While they still make up less than one-quarter of all U.S. grocery trips, their steady expansion suggests this behavioral shift is here to stay and that its full impact on the industry has yet to be realized.
One format particularly aligned with this trend is the fresh-format grocer, where average dwell times are shorter than in other categories. Yet despite benefiting from the rise of convenience-driven shopping, fresh formats attract the smallest share of loyal visitors (4+ times per month). This indicates they are rarely used for a primary weekly shop. Instead, they capture supplemental trips from consumers looking for specific needs – unique items, high-quality produce, or a prepared meal – who also value the ability to get in and out quickly.
In contrast, leading traditional grocers like H-E-B and Kroger thrive on a classic supermarket model built around frequent, comprehensive shopping trips. With the highest share of loyal visitors (38.5% and 27.6% respectively), they command a reliable customer base coming for full grocery runs and taking time to fill their carts.
Value grocers follow a different, but equally effective playbook. Positioned as primary “fill-in” stores, they sit between traditional and fresh formats in both dwell time and visit frequency. Many rely on limited assortments and a heavy emphasis on private-label goods, encouraging shoppers to build larger baskets around basics and store brands. Still, the data suggests consumers reserve their main grocery hauls for traditional supermarkets with broader selections, while using value grocers to stretch budgets and stock up on essentials.
1) Short trips surge: Under-10-minute visits have grown fastest, signaling a lasting behavioral shift.
2) Fresh formats thrive on convenience: Small footprints, prepared foods, and specialty items align with quick missions.
3) Traditional grocers retain loyalty: Traditional grocers such as H-E-B and Kroger attract frequent, comprehensive stock-up trips.
4) Value grocers fill the middle ground: Limited assortments and private label drive larger baskets, but main hauls remain with traditional supermarkets.
5) Fresh formats as supplements: Fresh format grocers such as The Fresh Market capture quick, specialized trips rather than weekly shops.
While broad market trends favor value and fresh-format grocers, certain traditional grocers are proving that a tailored strategy is a powerful tool for success. In the first half of 2025, H-E-B and Harris Teeter significantly outperformed their category's modest 0.6% average year-over-year visit growth, posting impressive gains of 5.6% and 2.8%, respectively. Their success demonstrates that even in a polarizing environment, there is ample room for traditional formats to thrive by deeply understanding and catering to a specific target audience.
These two brands achieve their success with distinctly different, yet equally focused, demographic strategies. H-E-B, a Texas powerhouse, leans heavily into major metropolitan areas like Austin and San Antonio. This urban focus is clear, with 32.6% of its visitors coming from urban centers and their peripheries, far above the category average. Conversely, Harris Teeter has cultivated a strong following in suburban and satellite cities in the South Atlantic region, drawing a massive 78.3% of its traffic from these areas. This deliberate targeting shows that knowing your customer's geography and lifestyle remains a winning formula for growth.
1) Traditional grocers can still be competitive: H-E-B (+5.6% YoY) and Harris Teeter (+2.8% YoY) outpaced the category average of +0.6% in H1 2025.
2) H-E-B’s strategy: Strong urban focus, with 32.6% of traffic from major metro areas like Austin and San Antonio.
3) Harris Teeter’s strategy: Suburban and satellite city focus, with 78.3% of traffic from South Atlantic suburbs.
