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After decades as America’s quintessential diner, Denny’s is entering a new era under the ownership of TriArtisan Capital Advisors, Treville Capital, and Yadav Enterprises. The move to take the company private comes at a time when the brand faces headwinds from store closures and evolving consumer habits – but also holds opportunities to reenergize its position in the family dining space.
We dove into the data to see where Denny’s stands today and what might be next for this legacy chain.
Visits to Denny’s fell 6.2% year over year (YoY) between November 2024 and October 2025, following a smaller 1.7% decline the prior year. This downturn partly reflects store closures, as Denny’s has been shuttering underperforming locations over the past two years to reposition the brand for sustainable growth.
The decline also reflects heightened competition from upscale breakfast chains such as First Watch – a challenge shared by peers like IHOP and Waffle House. Against this backdrop, Denny’s ability to limit traffic losses to single digits highlights its underlying brand resilience. And together with traffic gains at Keke’s Breakfast Café – the fast-growing concept Denny’s acquired in 2022 – this resilience provides a strong foundation for Denny’s and its new ownership group to reinvigorate the company’s success.
Visitor loyalty at Denny’s remains another bright spot. Between November 2024 and October 2025, roughly one in six Denny’s visitors returned within the same month, giving it a 17.3% average monthly loyal visitor share – the second highest among major breakfast chains after Waffle House (24.0%). This depth of loyalty shows that even with fewer restaurants, Denny’s retains a solid base of habitual diners who see it as their go-to comfort food spot. That connection also gives Denny’s – and other traditional diner concepts – a meaningful point of differentiation from more upscale competitors as the brand’s new ownership works to reenergize its business.
The data tells a clear story: Denny’s is in transition, not decline. Its loyal customer base provides stability, and its ability to limit traffic losses amid strategic rightsizing underscores real resilience. Now, as a privately held company, Denny’s has the flexibility to plan for the long term, positioning itself to evolve thoughtfully and make a comeback, one Grand Slam at a time.
For more data-driven dining analyses check out Placer.ai’s free industry trends tool.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
As the 2025 holiday season approaches, America’s most iconic shopping corridors are preparing for some of their biggest weeks of the year. From Manhattan’s 5th Avenue to Beverly Hills’ Rodeo Drive and Chicago’s Magnificent Mile, holiday shoppers are expected to turn out in force. We analyzed last year’s holiday visitation patterns to uncover what lies ahead for these corridors this year – and who their visitors are likely to be.
Urban shopping corridors like 5th Avenue, Rodeo Drive, and the Magnificent Mile come alive each year with holiday energy, drawing shoppers in search of gifts, experiences, and festive cheer. But while all three districts see substantial surges in foot traffic during the season, the magnitude of those gains relative to the rest of the year varies widely from one corridor to the next.
On New York City’s 5th Avenue, December stands out as the busiest month of the year by far. Rodeo Drive, by contrast, sees multiple peaks across the calendar – though its December surge consistently surpasses ones earlier in the year. The Magnificent Mile, meanwhile, typically records its highest visitation in July, with a more modest boost each December.
Zooming in on last year’s holiday foot traffic further underscores each corridor’s distinct seasonal rhythm. All three districts enjoyed notable Black Friday upticks, but their strongest gains came on other key occasions – each following its own festive cadence.
On 5th Avenue, visits surged on the three Saturdays leading up to Christmas – peaking on December 14th – as eager crowds turned out in droves to admire elaborate window displays, skate at Rockefeller Center, and soak in the city’s holiday magic. Out-of-market traffic to the Magnificent Mile, by contrast, reached a 12-month high during the November 23rd Wintrust Lights Festival, which kicked off the season with floats, marching bands, and fireworks. After that, visits eased before gradually ticking up and hitting another high on December 28th. Rodeo Drive also recorded its busiest day of the season on December 28th, surpassed only by the Concours d'Elegance on June 15th. For both the Magnificent Mile and Rodeo Drive, these late-season peaks underscore their enduring appeal for post-Christmas shopping, leisure, and celebration over the extended holiday weekend.
High-street retail corridors’ mix of luxury brands and flagship stores tends to attract affluent shoppers with money to spend. The median household income (HHI) of 5th Avenue’s out-of-market trade area during an average weekend this year stood at $118.3K, while Rodeo Drive’s reached $123.1K and the Magnificent Mile’s $104.4K.
During the holiday season, however, all three corridors saw a drop in median HHI – though each remained well above the national baseline of $79.6K. At the same time, the share of families with children increased across all three destinations. These shifts, most pronounced on 5th Avenue given its dramatic influx of visitors, highlight a seasonal pivot toward a broader, more family-driven audience than is typical throughout the rest of the year.
Still, young single adults remain a core driver of holiday foot traffic across major retail corridors. Visitors aged 25 to 34 made up an outsized share of holiday shoppers last season, though each destination drew a somewhat different mix.
“Educated Urbanites” – affluent singles earning an estimated $150K to $200K per year – were most prevalent on Rodeo Drive but were also strongly represented along 5th Avenue and the Magnificent Mile. “Young Urban Singles,” early in their careers and earning between $35K and $50K, were most concentrated on 5th Avenue, while “Young Professionals” starting white-collar or technical careers with incomes of $50K to $75K were most common on the Mag Mile.
Together, these dynamics point to another vibrant holiday season across the country’s premier retail corridors. Each destination will draw its own mix of locals, travelers, and tourists – but all are poised to see more shoppers, more experiences, and more energy lighting up America’s high streets through the end of the year.
For more data-driven retail insights follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Every year on Veterans Day, America’s restaurants find creative ways to honor the service of military members and their families. From free meals to fundraising efforts, many chains turn November 11th into a day of generosity and community.
And data from last year shows just how powerful that gesture can be – for both diners and the restaurants that serve them.
Eating out to honor those who served has become an American tradition. Leading chains from Applebee’s to Olive Garden and California Pizza Kitchen offer special deals to mark the occasion, drawing crowds nationwide. Last year, visits to these restaurants more than doubled compared to an average Monday, as Americans turned out to share a meal and show their appreciation.
For Applebee’s, November 11 wasn’t just a busy Monday – it was the busiest day of the entire year.
The brand’s all-day Veterans Day special allowed veterans and active-duty service members to enjoy a free entrée, creating steady traffic throughout the day. Eligible guests also received a $5 “Bounce Back” card to use in the following weeks – a small but effective way to say thank you and drive repeat visits. And while the all-day offer kept tables full, veterans and families hoping to avoid the lunchtime rush could still take advantage of the offer later in the day.
Other chains, like Golden Corral, took a different approach. The brand’s evening-only Military Appreciation Night began after 4:00 PM, offering free meals for veterans alongside a fundraising effort for Disabled American Veterans.
That timing produced a concentrated traffic surge. Visits peaked between 5:00 and 6:00 PM – likely boosted by some websites listing that as the start time – and remained well above average through the dinner hours. The data shows how a more focused event window can create strong evening momentum and a clear sense of occasion.
As November 11 approaches, full-service restaurants have another opportunity to align purpose with performance – honoring service members while strengthening ties with the communities they serve. How will this year’s Veterans Day dining trends unfold?
Follow Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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Digitally native brands have long been recognized for redefining retail through direct-to-consumer convenience and transparency. But as many of these once digital-only companies expand offline, physical stores prove to be key drivers of growth and engagement. Warby Parker stands out as an example of a brand translating digital roots into success in the brick-and-mortar space.
Warby Parker is entering the final quarter of 2025 on the tails of meaningful gains in foot traffic during the last twelve months (9.0% year-over-year (YoY)). With over 300 locations and being well on its way to 45 new stores this year, the chain’s continued expansion likely had an impact on YoY visits. But Warby Parker’s established footprint is also driving growth. Company management cited on-target revenue from both new stores and ones open for 12-months or more.
Unlike traditional retailers, digitally native brands built their businesses on a foundation of ecommerce fluency, so a well-oiled online shopping experience and the roll-out of fresh AI-tools is to be expected. However, where Warby Parker continues to excel is in its physical store experience, enhanced by digital infrastructure that drives efficiency and reflects its roots as a digitally native brand.
The graph below shows that through three quarters of 2025, Warby Parker maintained average visit length of 30.8 minutes, exceeding the beauty (26.8 minutes) and traditional apparel (28.7 minutes) categories. This means that, on average, Warby Parker shoppers spend more time choosing a frame than they do sampling makeup or trying on an outfit. Longer visits indicate that Warby Parker stores, with their in-house eye exams and inviting, library-like atmosphere, have become destinations for both vision care and thoughtful frame selection. If Warby Parker continues to capture more of the vision care journey – a key long-term goal – further increases in average visit length could be expected.
Yet Warby Parker also drove a larger share of visits under 10 minutes than the analyzed categories, underscoring its well-executed omnichannel capabilities that serve consumers looking for speed and convenience. The chain integrates online staples – such as virtual try-ons – in-store, and its “Point of Everything (POE)” sales tool quickly identifies which frames customers have “favorited” online to help streamline offline purchases. And while some of Warby Parker’s short visits may come from frame adjustments – typically a quick fix – POE helps to make that process more efficient as well.
This all points to why Warby Parker’s retail revenue growth outpaces its ecommerce growth – accounting for 73% of the business – and may also explain management’s decision to sunset its Home Try-On program. Noting that the majority of the program’s current users live within 30 minutes of a Warby Parker store, the brand likely hopes that users can be easily converted into offline customers.
Digitally native brands are reshaping the physical store into an extension of their digital DNA and creating spaces that deliver both engagement and convenience. Knowledgeable associates and in-store amenities elevate offline shopping, while digital infrastructure supports everyday efficiency.
Want more data-driven retail insights? Visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
With food prices remaining elevated, value grocers like Grocery Outlet Bargain Market are continuing to gain ground. We analyzed the latest traffic data to uncover what’s driving their sustained momentum.
Although food prices have now been elevated for several years – with 2025 bringing yet another uptick at the grocery till – traffic data suggests that consumers are continuing to adjust to this new normal. Value grocers are still gaining ground, with both Grocery Outlet Bargain Market and WinCo Foods experiencing strong year-over-year traffic gains.
Grocery Outlet Bargain Market – which has been expanding beyond its West Coast core markets – saw its traffic increase 7.5% year over year (YoY) over the past 12 months.
WinCo Foods – another value grocer rooted in the Western U.S. and growing in new regions – also experienced continued traffic growth.
Grocery Outlet Bargain Market and WinCo sustained momentum – even after years of high food prices – suggesting that grocery shopping habits change slowly. But while some shoppers may take longer to trade down from their traditional grocers, each additional month of high prices appears to draw more households toward value-focused chains. Value grocers' ongoing YoY visit gains point to a slow but steady realignment of consumer loyalties toward discount and private-label-driven formats that can keep prices low, even if it means a less familiar product mix.
At the same time, chains like Grocery Outlet and WinCo are meeting this demand head-on. Both are expanding into new markets and capturing shoppers who are now more willing to try new stores in search of savings. After several years of navigating higher grocery bills, consumers have become more intentional about where they shop and what they buy – and value grocers are benefiting from that sustained recalibration.
For the most up-to-date grocery insights, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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CAVA’s expansion in recent years has been largely focused on suburban markets. And analyzing the shift in its visitor base highlights that it is growing in ways that signal continued room for growth.
The median household income in CAVA’s trade area has dropped steadily over the years, from $122.7K in 2019 to $95.0K in 2025, reflecting its growing reach among middle-income, suburban households. At the same time, visits from the ultra-wealthy “Power Elite”, defined by Experian: Mosaic as “the wealthiest households in the U.S.”, have given way to growth among “Singles & Starters” – though a slight drop-off in 2025 may reflect pull-back from these households amidst economic uncertainty. Still, the data suggests that CAVA’s appeal is resonating with a much larger, more diverse group of consumers, positioning the chain for continued growth in the years ahead.
Looking deeper into the geographic segments that make up CAVA’s visitor base reveals another often-overlooked source of opportunity. As the company has expanded beyond its urban core, its share of visits from the “Urban Periphery” segment (defined by the Esri Analytics Bundle as residential communities just beyond major city centers) has climbed steadily. These neighborhoods present a significant opportunity for continued expansion in markets that bridge city and suburb – offering the chain further room for growth.
In expanding into suburban markets, CAVA has also evolved its operating model to emphasize speed and convenience. Visits have become noticeably faster as the brand expands its drive-thru lanes and digital ordering options, with average dwell time dropping from 42.3 minutes in Q3 2019 to 28 minutes in Q3 2025. This shift suggests that the chain’s approach is resonating with time-pressed consumers. At the same time, a still relatively leisurely dwell time (28 minutes in Q3 2025) indicates that many guests still choose to dine in-house – underscoring CAVA’s ability to serve both convenience-driven and sit-down customers.
Location analytics for CAVA reflects a brand that is maturing while still defining its core audience. The chain has democratized over the years, as seen by its widening customer base, while continuing to make operational changes that benefit its brand.
Will CAVA continue to thrive into Q4 2025 and beyond?
For the most up-to-date dining data, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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1) Value Wins in 2025: Discount & Dollar Stores and Off-Price Apparel are outperforming as consumers prioritize value and the “treasure-hunt” experience.
2) Small Splurges Over Big Projects: Clothing and Home Furnishing traffic remains strong as shoppers favor accessible wardrobe updates and decor refreshes instead of major renovations.
3) Big-Ticket Weakness: Electronics and Home Improvement visits continue to lag, reflecting a continued deferment of larger purchases.
4) Bifurcation in Apparel: Visits to off-price and luxury segments are growing, while general apparel, athleisure, and department stores face ongoing pressures from consumer trade-downs.
5) Income Dynamics Shape Apparel: Higher-income shoppers sustain luxury and athleisure, while off-price is driving traffic from more lower-income consumers.
6) Beauty Normalizes but Stays Relevant: After a pandemic-driven surge, YoY declines likely indicate that beauty visits are stabilizing; shorter trips are giving way to longer visits as retailers deploy new tech and immersive experiences.
Economic headwinds, including tariffs and higher everyday costs, are limiting discretionary budgets and prompting consumers to make more selective choices about where they spend. But despite these pressures, foot traffic to several discretionary retail categories continues to thrive year-over-year (YoY).
Of the discretionary categories analyzed, fitness and apparel had the strongest year-over-year traffic trends – likely thanks to consumers finding perceived value in these segments.
Fitness and apparel (boosted by off-price) appeal to value-driven, experience seeking consumers – fitness thanks to its membership model of unlimited visits for an often low fee, and off-price with its discount prices and treasure-hunt dynamic. Both categories may also be riding a cultural wave tied to the growing use of GLP-1s, as more consumers pursue fitness goals and refresh their wardrobes to match changing lifestyles and sizes.
Big-ticket categories, including electronics, also faced significant challenges, as tighter consumer budgets hamper growth in the space. Traffic to home improvement retailers also generally declined, as lagging home sales and consumers putting off costly renovations likely contributed to the softness in the space.
But home furnishing visits pulled ahead in July and August 2025 – benefitting from strong performances at discount chains such as HomeGoods – suggesting that consumers are directing their home-oriented spending towards more accessible decor.
The beauty sector – typically a resilient "affordable luxury" category – also experienced declines in recent months. The slowdown can be partially attributed to stabilization following several years of intense growth, but it may also mean that consumers are simplifying their beauty routines or shifting their beauty buying online.
> Traffic to fitness and apparel chains – led by off-price – continued to grow YoY in 2025, as value and experiences continue to draw consumers.
> Consumers are shopping for accessible home decor upgrades to refresh their space rather than undertaking major renovations.
> Shoppers are holding off on big-ticket purchases, leading to YoY declines in the electronics and home improvement categories.
> Beauty has experienced softening traffic trends as the sector stabilizes following its recent years of hypergrowth as shoppers simplify routines and shift some of their spending online.
After two years of visit declines, the Home Furnishings category rebounded in 2025, with visits up 4.9% YoY between January and August. By contrast, Home Improvement continued its multi-year downward trend, though the pace of decline appears to have slowed.
So what’s fueling Home Furnishings’ resurgence while Home Improvement visits remain soft? Probably a combination of factors, including a more affluent shopper base and a product mix that includes a variety of lower-ticket items.
On the audience side, this category draws a much larger share of visits from suburban and urban areas, with a median household income well above that of home improvement shoppers. The differences are especially pronounced when analyzing the audience in their captured markets – indicating that the gap stems not just from store locations, but from meaningful differences in the types of consumers each category attracts.
Home improvement's larger share of rural visits is not accidental – home improvement leaders have been intentionally expanding into smaller markets for a while. But while betting on rural markets is likely to pay off down the line, home improvement may continue to face headwinds in the near future as its rural shopper base grapples with fewer discretionary dollars.
On the merchandise side, home improvement chains cater to larger renovations and higher-cost projects – and have likely been impacted by the slowdown in larger-ticket purchases which is also impacting the electronics space. Meanwhile, home furnishing chains carry a large assortment of lower-ticket items, including home decor, accessories, and tableware.
Consumers are still spending more time at home now than they were pre-COVID, and investing in comfortable living spaces is more important than ever. And although many high-income consumers are also tightening their belts, upgrading tableware or even a piece of furniture is still much cheaper than undertaking a renovation – which could explain the differences in traffic trends.
Traditional apparel, mid-tier department stores, and activewear chains all experienced similar levels of YoY traffic declines in 2025 YTD, as shown in the graph above. But analyzing traffic data from 2021 shows that each segment's dip is part of a trajectory unique to that segment.
Traffic to mid-tier department stores has been trending downward since 2021, a shift tied not only to macroeconomic headwinds but also to structural changes in the sector. The pandemic accelerated e-commerce adoption, hitting department stores particularly hard as consumers seeking one-stop shopping and broad assortments increasingly turned to the convenience of online channels.
Traffic to traditional apparel chains has also not fully recovered from the pandemic, but the segment did consistently outperform mid-tier department stores and luxury retailers between 2021 and 2024. But in H1 2025, the dynamic with luxury shifted, so that traffic trends at luxury apparel retailers are now stronger than at traditional apparel both YoY and compared to Q1 2019. This highlights the current bifurcation of consumer spending also in the apparel space, as luxury and off-price segments outperform mid-market chains.
In contrast, the activewear & athleisure category continues to outperform its pre-pandemic baseline, despite experiencing a slight YoY softening in 2025 as consumers tighten their budgets. The category has capitalized on post-lockdown lifestyle shifts, and comfort-driven wardrobes that blur the line between work, fitness, and leisure remain entrenched consumer staples several years on.
The two segments with the highest YoY growth – off-price and luxury – are at the two ends of the spectrum in terms of household income levels, highlighting the bifurcation that has characterized much of the retail space in 2025. And luxury and off-price are also benefiting from larger consumer trends that are boosting performance at both premium and value-focused retailers.
In-store traffic behavior reveals that these two segments enjoy the longest average dwell times in the apparel category, with an average visit to a luxury or off-price retailer lasting 39.2 and 41.3 minutes, respectively. This suggests that consumers are drawn to the experiential aspect of both segments – treasure hunting at off-price chains or indulging in a sense of prestige at a luxury retailer. Together, these patterns highlight that – despite appealing to different consumer groups – both ends of the market are thriving by offering shopping experiences that foster longer engagement.
> Off-price and luxury segments are outperforming, while general apparel, athleisure, and department store visits lag YoY under tariff pressures and consumer trade-downs.
> Looking over the longer term reveals that athleisure is still far ahead of its pre-pandemic baseline – even if YoY demand has softened.
> Luxury and off-price both are thriving by offering shopping experiences that foster longer engagement.
The beauty sector has long benefitted from the “lipstick effect” — the tendency for consumers to indulge in small luxuries even when discretionary spending is constrained. And while the beauty category’s softening in today’s cautious spending environment could suggest that this effect has weakened, a longer view of the data tells a more nuanced story.
Beauty visits grew significantly between 2021 and 2024, fueled by a confluence of factors including post-pandemic “revenge shopping,” demand for bolder looks as consumers returned to social life, and new store openings and retail partnerships. Against that backdrop, recent YoY traffic dips are likely a sign of stabilization rather than true declines. Social commerce, and minimalist skincare routines may be moderating in-store traffic, but shoppers are still engaged, even as they blend online and offline shopping or seek out lower-cost alternatives to maximize value.
Analysis of average visit duration for three leading beauty chains – Ulta Beauty, Bath & Body Works, and Sally Beauty Supply – highlights the shifting role but continued relevance of physical stores in the space.
Average visit duration decreased post-pandemic – likely due to more purposeful trips and increased online product discovery. But that trend began to reverse in H1 2025, signaling the changing role of physical stores. Enhanced tech for in-store product exploration and rich experiences may be helping drive deeper engagement, underscoring beauty retail’s staying power even in a more measured spending environment.
Bottom Line:
> Beauty’s slight YoY visit declines point to a period of normalization following a post-pandemic boom, while longer-term trends show the category remains stronger than pre-pandemic levels.
> Visits grew shorter post-pandemic, driven by more purposeful trips and increased online product discovery – but dwell time is now lengthening again, signaling renewed in-store engagement driven by tech-enabled discovery and immersive experiences.
Foot traffic data highlight major differences in the recent performance of various discretionary apparel categories. Off-price, fitness, and home furnishings are pulling ahead, well-positioned to keep capitalizing on shifting priorities. Luxury also remains resilient, likely thanks to its higher-income visitor base.
At the same time, beauty’s normalization and the slowdown in mid-tier apparel, electronics, and home improvement show that caution persists across discretionary budgets. Moving forward, retailers that align with consumers’ demand for value, accessible upgrades, and immersive experiences may be best placed to thrive in this era of selective spending.
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1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery formats grew year-over-year in Q2 2025, with traditional grocers posting their first rebound since early 2024.
2) Value grocers slow: After leading during the 2022–24 trade-down wave, value grocer growth has decelerated as that shift matures.
3) Fresh formats surge: Now the fastest-growing segment, fueled by affluent shoppers seeking health, wellness, and convenience.
4) Bifurcation widens: Growth concentrated at both the low-income (value) and high-income (fresh) ends, highlighting polarized spending.
5) Shopping missions diverge: Short trips are rising, supporting fresh formats, while traditional grocers retain loyal stock-up customers and value chains capture fill-in trips through private labels.
6) Traditional grocers adapt: H-E-B and Harris Teeter outperformed by tailoring strategies to their core geographies and demographics.Bifurcation of Consumer Spending Help Fresh Format Lead Grocery Growth
Grocery traffic across all four major categories – value grocers, fresh format, traditional grocery, ethnic grocers – was up year over year in Q2 2025 as shoppers continue to engage with a wide range of grocery formats. Traditional grocery posted its first YoY traffic increase since Q1 2024, while ethnic grocers maintained their steady pattern of modest but consistent gains.
Value grocers, which dominated growth through most of 2024 as shoppers prioritized affordability, continued to expand but have now ceded leadership to fresh-format grocers. Rising food costs between 2022 and 2024 drove many consumers to chains like Aldi and Lidl, but much of this “trade-down” movement has already occurred. Although price sensitivity still shapes consumer choices – keeping the value segment on an upward trajectory – its growth momentum has slowed, making it less of a driver for the overall sector.
Fresh-format grocers have now taken the lead, posting the strongest YoY traffic gains of any category in 2025. This segment, anchored by players like Sprouts, appeals to the highest-income households of the four categories, signaling a growing influence of affluent shoppers on the competitive grocery landscape. Despite accounting for just 7.0% of total grocery visits in H1 2025, the segment’s rapid gains point to a broader shift: premium brands emphasizing health and wellness are emerging as the primary engine of growth in the grocery sector.
The fact that value grocers and fresh-format grocers – segments with the lowest and highest median household incomes among their customer bases – are the two categories driving the most growth underscores how the bifurcation of consumer spending is playing out in the grocery space as well. On one end, price-sensitive shoppers continue to seek out affordable options, while on the other, affluent consumers are fueling demand for premium, health-oriented formats. This dual-track growth pattern highlights how widening economic divides are reshaping competitive dynamics in grocery retail.
1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery categories posted YoY traffic gains in Q2 2025.
2) Traditional grocery rebound: First YoY increase since Q1 2024.
3) Ethnic grocers: Continued steady but modest upward trend.
4) Value grocers: Still growing, but slowing after most trade-down activity already occurred (2022–24).
5) Fresh formats: Now the fastest-growing segment, driven by affluent shoppers and interest in health & wellness.
6) Market shift: Premium, health-oriented brands are becoming the new growth driver in grocery.
7) Bifurcation of spending: Growth at both value and fresh-format grocers highlights a polarization in consumer spending patterns that is reshaping grocery competition.
Over the past two years, short grocery trips (under 10 minutes) have grown far more quickly than longer visits. While they still make up less than one-quarter of all U.S. grocery trips, their steady expansion suggests this behavioral shift is here to stay and that its full impact on the industry has yet to be realized.
One format particularly aligned with this trend is the fresh-format grocer, where average dwell times are shorter than in other categories. Yet despite benefiting from the rise of convenience-driven shopping, fresh formats attract the smallest share of loyal visitors (4+ times per month). This indicates they are rarely used for a primary weekly shop. Instead, they capture supplemental trips from consumers looking for specific needs – unique items, high-quality produce, or a prepared meal – who also value the ability to get in and out quickly.
In contrast, leading traditional grocers like H-E-B and Kroger thrive on a classic supermarket model built around frequent, comprehensive shopping trips. With the highest share of loyal visitors (38.5% and 27.6% respectively), they command a reliable customer base coming for full grocery runs and taking time to fill their carts.
Value grocers follow a different, but equally effective playbook. Positioned as primary “fill-in” stores, they sit between traditional and fresh formats in both dwell time and visit frequency. Many rely on limited assortments and a heavy emphasis on private-label goods, encouraging shoppers to build larger baskets around basics and store brands. Still, the data suggests consumers reserve their main grocery hauls for traditional supermarkets with broader selections, while using value grocers to stretch budgets and stock up on essentials.
1) Short trips surge: Under-10-minute visits have grown fastest, signaling a lasting behavioral shift.
2) Fresh formats thrive on convenience: Small footprints, prepared foods, and specialty items align with quick missions.
3) Traditional grocers retain loyalty: Traditional grocers such as H-E-B and Kroger attract frequent, comprehensive stock-up trips.
4) Value grocers fill the middle ground: Limited assortments and private label drive larger baskets, but main hauls remain with traditional supermarkets.
5) Fresh formats as supplements: Fresh format grocers such as The Fresh Market capture quick, specialized trips rather than weekly shops.
While broad market trends favor value and fresh-format grocers, certain traditional grocers are proving that a tailored strategy is a powerful tool for success. In the first half of 2025, H-E-B and Harris Teeter significantly outperformed their category's modest 0.6% average year-over-year visit growth, posting impressive gains of 5.6% and 2.8%, respectively. Their success demonstrates that even in a polarizing environment, there is ample room for traditional formats to thrive by deeply understanding and catering to a specific target audience.
These two brands achieve their success with distinctly different, yet equally focused, demographic strategies. H-E-B, a Texas powerhouse, leans heavily into major metropolitan areas like Austin and San Antonio. This urban focus is clear, with 32.6% of its visitors coming from urban centers and their peripheries, far above the category average. Conversely, Harris Teeter has cultivated a strong following in suburban and satellite cities in the South Atlantic region, drawing a massive 78.3% of its traffic from these areas. This deliberate targeting shows that knowing your customer's geography and lifestyle remains a winning formula for growth.
1) Traditional grocers can still be competitive: H-E-B (+5.6% YoY) and Harris Teeter (+2.8% YoY) outpaced the category average of +0.6% in H1 2025.
2) H-E-B’s strategy: Strong urban focus, with 32.6% of traffic from major metro areas like Austin and San Antonio.
3) Harris Teeter’s strategy: Suburban and satellite city focus, with 78.3% of traffic from South Atlantic suburbs.
