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Visits to Starbucks usually spike on its annual Red Cup Day, as patrons flock to the chain to order a specialty holiday beverage and receive a complimentary reusable red cup. But last year, the chain’s Red Cup Day performance was relatively muted – although foot traffic still got a boost, the jump was not quite as significant as in previous years. Was the promotion more effective in 2024? We dove into the data to find out.
Starbucks’ Red Cup Day came roaring back in 2024, with Thursday, November 14th – the day of the promotion – receiving 42.4% more visits than the recent Thursday daily visit average. And Red Cup Day didn’t just drive visits relative to a regular weekday – the promotion brought a 9.4% lift in overall weekly visits to Starbucks during the week of the event.
The relative visit bump was significantly higher than on Red Cup Day 2023 – when visits on Thursday, November 16th 2023 were only 25.0% higher than the previous five Thursday averages – and even outshined the already strong performance of Red Cup Day 2022.
As usual, Red Cup Day at Starbucks drove a larger visit spike than the launch of the chain’s popular Pumpkin Spice Latte (PSL): During the week of the PSL launch, visits rose 9.7% compared to the first week of H2 (July 1st-7th 2024), while Red Cup Day drove a 12.9% foot traffic bump relative to that same baseline.
Nevertheless, the recent data also indicates that the PSL remains a seasonal fan favorite – Starbucks received more weekly visits on the PSL’s arrival week than it did when it launched the holiday menu, when visits increased 6.7% relative to the beginning of H2.
This year’s Red Cup Day followed several weeks of year-over-year (YoY) visit dips at Starbucks, with weekly foot traffic between September 2nd and November 10th 2024 down an average of 4.4% YoY. But the success of the promotion – which drove YoY visit growth for the first time since August – showcases Starbucks’ expertise at driving visits by owning the calendar.
The chain has succeeded in establishing a yearly buzz around its branded cups that drive visits during what would otherwise be an off-season for the chain. And even this year, when consumers seem to be tightening their purse strings and cutting down on discretionary spending ahead of the holidays, Red Cup Day still managed to drive patrons to Starbucks stores in search of holiday beverages and free swag.
How will Starbucks perform throughout the end of 2024?
Visit placer.ai to find out.
How did leading eatertainment chains Dave & Buster’s and Chuck E. Cheese perform in Q3 2024? We dove into the data to find out.
Since January 2024, Dave & Buster’s has enjoyed mainly positive YoY visit growth, fueled in part by the eatertainment leader’s continued expansion. In Q2 and Q3 2024, visits to the chain were up 3.2% and 7.3%, respectively. And though YoY foot traffic to the chain slowed down in Q3 2024, a look at Dave & Buster’s monthly visit patterns shows that this may have been due in part to a summer visit peak that was slightly lower – but more extended – than that seen last year.
In 2023, Dave & Buster’s experienced three distinct visit spikes – in March, July, and December – with the restaurant’s 14.6% July visit boost (compared to a monthly average for Jan. ‘23 - Oct. ‘24) preceded by a relatively quiet June (+2.0%). But this year, summer foot traffic began to trend upwards earlier, with both June and July seeing substantial upticks – 13.6% and 13.4%, respectively. (June is in Q2 and so this part of the uptick would not have been included in Q3 foot traffic numbers). And though September, usually a down period for Dave & Buster’s, saw a modest drop in visitors compared to 2023, the chain’s March peak was higher than last year’s.
Digging even deeper into the data shows that even as YoY quarterly visits to Dave & Buster’s remained flat in Q3 2024, mid-week visits to the chain continued to climb. Dave & Buster’s has been investing heavily in mid-week promotions meant to drive traffic during quieter periods, and its efforts are clearly paying off. On Wednesdays, Dave & Buster’s offers a 50% discount on games – and the average number of Wednesday visits to the chain were up 7.0% YoY. Thursdays, too, saw an 11.3% YoY foot traffic increase, likely fueled by diners drawn to Thursday specials as the most intensive part of the work week wound down. (In Q3 2024, July 4th fell on a Thursday, which also generated a significant visit bump – but even when discounting the week of the holiday, Thursday visits were up 6.4% on average.)
Against the backdrop of solid seasonal peaks and impressive mid-week visitation trends, Dave & Buster’s appears poised to enjoy a robust December – another important seasonal milestone for the restaurant. And keep an eye out for the week after Christmas, traditionally Dave & Buster’s busiest week of the year: Last year, the week starting December 25th drove a 65.0% visit spike to the chain compared to a 2023 weekly average.
Speaking of promotions – Chuck E. Cheese is another eatertainment leader that has been finding success by leaning into special deals, making it easier for price-conscious consumers to treat their kids to pizza and fun.
Following a lackluster start to the year, YoY visits to Chuck E. Cheese began trending upwards in May 2024 and have remained elevated ever since. Between June and August 2024, foot traffic to Chuck E. Cheese was up between 20.1% and 26.8% compared to the equivalent period of 2023. And though the pace of visit growth began to taper in September as kids went back to school, visits remained substantially higher than last year.
What’s behind Chuck E. Cheese’s summer flourishing? A look at shifts in loyalty trends at the chain suggests that the success of this year’s Summer Fun Pass may be a big part of the story.
On average, the share of loyal visitors to Chuck E. Cheese – i.e. those frequenting the restaurant at least twice in a month – tends to range between five and seven percent. Last summer, this percentage increased to 8.1%, as parents sought out indoor activities to keep kids occupied when school was out. But this year’s summer loyalty spike – just over 12.0% in both June and July – was significantly higher.
Though Chuck E. Cheese also offered a Summer Fun Pass last year, this year’s deal provided even greater value – including unlimited visits over a two-month period, steep discounts on food, and up to 250 games per day. And the promotion was such a smashing success that Chuck E. Cheese has launched a new unlimited-visit pass meant to make frequent trips to the chain more affordable for families all year round. As the kids’ eatertainment leader continues to revamp its offerings – remodeling locations and adding new activities like indoor trampolines – Chuck E. Cheese appears poised to keep drawing the crowds.
Today’s cautious consumers are always on the lookout for ways to save – and eatertainment chains are paying attention. Will Dave & Buster’s post-Christmas visit spike outperform last year’s? And will Chuck E. Cheese’s new unlimited play model continue to drive traffic throughout Q4?
Follow Placer.ai’s data driven analyses to find out.
Shoppers continue to prioritize value in 2024, offering opportunities for discount and dollar stores to thrive during the upcoming holiday season.
With that in mind, we took a look at visitation metrics – both from 2024 and from previous years – to see how the segment is performing and what the crucial holiday season might hold for discount retailers Dollar Tree and Dollar General.
Discount and dollar stores continue to benefit from an inflation-impacted economy, with category leaders like Dollar Tree and Dollar General continuing to expand their footprints to serve the increasing number of budget-conscious shoppers.
And in large part thanks to the increased store count, visits to Dollar Tree and Dollar General have continued to increase – Q3 2024 visits to the chains were up by 5.3% and 4.8% YoY, respectively. Monthly visits also showed impressive growth, with October 2024 visits up by 7.6% at Dollar Tree and 7.8% at Dollar General. These growth numbers may be slightly lower than the visit increases posted by the category in the past – but the ongoing positive performance by discount & dollar store leaders indicates that the category remains one of the most consistently strong players in the wider retail space.
November and December are typically the most important months for retailers as multiple shopping events – Turkey Wednesday, Black Friday, Christmas Eve Eve, and Boxing Day – drive consumers to the tills. And while many retailers open the holiday season with visit spikes driven by big Black Friday discounts, the visitation patterns look slightly different at discount chains, where prices are already low and discounts are – as their name implies – already applied. So when do these retailers get their holiday visit boosts?
Comparing weekly visit numbers in 2021, 2022, and 2023 to each year’s weekly average reveals differences between the two discount & dollar store leaders. Visits to Dollar Tree gradually increase from early November onward and peak on the last full week before Christmas, likely driven by shoppers flocking to its stores to pick up snacks, gift wrap, and stocking stuffers. Meanwhile, Dollar General’s visits exhibited more stability – although visits were higher than average between Black Friday and Christmas Eve Eve, the increase was much more muted relative to Dollar Tree’s holiday spike. Dollar General’s softer holiday traffic may be due to the expansion of its Dollar General Market concept, which turned many of its stores into destinations for fresh foods – so consumers may be treating Dollar General more like a grocery store and less like a holiday shopping spot.
Previous years’ visitation patterns indicate that the busiest time of the year is still ahead for Dollar General and Dollar Tree. How will these retailers perform during the critical pre-Christmas rush? Visit Placer.ai to find out.
Heading into the Q3 2024 retailer reporting period, most expected Walmart to continue gaining market share from essentials-focused retailers. In our coverage of Walmart’s Q2 2024 update, we highlighted the chain’s significant disruption in the grocery category, driven by everyday low pricing, Walmart+ store delivery orders, store remodeling efforts, an improved selection of premium merchandise, and a broadened marketplace offering. These strategies notably boosted visits among higher-income households earning $100,000 or more annually.
While Walmart did indeed disrupt essentials retailers this quarter, what stood out even more was its impact across discretionary categories. Management reported low-single-digit comparable sales growth in general merchandise, with mid-single-digit unit growth offsetting low-to-mid single-digit price deflation. Categories like home, toys, and hardlines led this growth, complemented by strength in beauty, fashion, and apparel. Walmart’s marketplace played a key role in this success, offering consumers a broader selection of brands and items than in-store. Marketplace sales in beauty, toys, hardlines, and home each grew by 20% year-over-year.
To assess Walmart’s impact on other general merchandise retailers, we analyzed cross-visitation trends. Our data indicates that year-over-year cross-visitation between Walmart and other hardgoods retailers like Best Buy, GameStop, Lowe’s, Home Depot, Hibbett Sports, Sportsman Warehouse, and Big 5—as well as pet retailers like Petco and PetSmart—declined. This suggests a potential shift in consumer behavior, with shoppers consolidating more of their general merchandise purchases at Walmart.
To confirm Walmart's impact on general merchandise, we analyzed visitation trends across several discretionary categories from July to November 2024 (below). With the exceptions of beauty and home furnishings—more on that category in a minute—most categories experienced year-over-year declines throughout much of the August to October quarter. Notably, mid-October brought a temporary improvement in visit trends, coinciding with major promotional events such as Amazon’s Big Deal Days, Walmart’s Holiday Deals Event, and Target’s Circle Week, underscoring how deal-driven consumers are in today’s environment. Following these promotions, shopping activity largely paused until last week, when Black Friday deal announcements began to drive renewed interest.
Home furnishings deserve a closer look. Earlier this year, we noted strong visit trends in housewares retail, and that momentum has largely continued. Mattress retailers, which began the year on a high note, have also maintained positive year-over-year visitation growth in the second half of 2024. Notably, furniture retailers—both value-focused and full-priced—saw year-over-year visitation gains during the quarter, though there was a slight pause in November as consumers waited for Black Friday deals.
These trends align with the third-quarter 2024 update from Williams-Sonoma, where management highlighted improvements in furniture sales at its West Elm and Pottery Barn brands. Additionally, the company cited strength in seasonal items and housewares, suggesting that Walmart’s strong performance in the home category reflects both broader industry trends and its own merchandising improvements. These patterns may also mark the early stages of a new home furnishings cycle as we near the five-year anniversary of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Walmart’s strong performance in discretionary categories serves as a warning to other discretionary retailers to elevate their strategies ahead of the holiday shopping season. With in-store merchandise enhancements and a robust third-party marketplace offering access to over 700 million stock-keeping units (SKUs), Walmart is positioned to be even more competitive this holiday season.
With the rise of hybrid and remote work, we’ve observed a notable shift in everyday consumer behaviors, particularly around fitness, shopping, running errands, and grabbing takeout. Without the need to commute on certain days, it’s easier for consumers to squeeze in a workout or make a quick trip to a store. Local outdoor shopping centers have become prime beneficiaries of this new “pop-in, pop-out” behavior. Here, we explore some of the brands poised to thrive in this evolving landscape.
At the start of this year, we predicted that the beauty category boom we witnessed last year would persist, with wellness and self-care becoming integral parts of that definition. For many, self-care includes a good workout, whether low-impact or high-intensity. We've previously highlighted fitness trends, with brands like Club Pilates and Orangetheory Fitness continuing to demonstrate year-over-year growth. A perfect post-workout activity might include a massage or chiropractic session to ease sore muscles or restore alignment—services that have driven increased traffic for brands like Massage Envy and Joint Chiropractic. Another standout is Madison Reed, which offers "salon results without salon cost or time" and continues to expand its footprint.
The next group of brands stands out for their ubiquity—you’re likely to find one or more of these stores in any local outdoor shopping center. UPS is indispensable for shipping and returning items, serving as a go-to for everyday logistics. Meanwhile, telecommunications and internet service providers like AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, and Xfinity maintain a steady customer base, driven by the regular upgrade cycle for cell phones and service plans.
Another home improvement and furnishings replacement cycle may be upon us. Pandemic-driven nesting behaviors accelerated demand in previous years, but now, many consumers are cautiously approaching this phase. Instead of investing in big-ticket items like dining or living room furniture, there’s growing enthusiasm for budget-friendly updates, such as applying a fresh coat of paint. Sherwin-Williams stands out as a key player, experiencing increased foot traffic. This rise in paint store visits could signal a positive trend for future investments in home improvement, redecorating, and refurnishing.
Next, we have some tasty additions perfect for local outdoor shopping centers. Americans’ love affair with chicken shows no signs of slowing down. Dave’s Hot Chicken has developed a cult following for its juicy, flavorful chicken, while Raising Cane’s draws loyal fans for its irresistible tenders and signature sauce. Bb.q Chicken offers a unique twist, boasting over a dozen wing flavors, including Caribbean Spice, Hot Mala, and Cheesling cheese dust.
With Black Friday just a week away, it's the perfect time to reflect on the state of retail and what lies ahead over the next 28 days as consumers prepare for holiday gatherings, celebrations, and gift-giving. The retail industry in 2024 has been anything but consistent—some categories continue to thrive, others have struggled, and a few are clawing their way back to prominence.
This year’s holiday season is likely to follow a similar pattern, but the key differentiator is time. As we highlighted in our TL;DR newsletter on LinkedIn this week, the 2024 holiday shopping period has five fewer days compared to last year, reminiscent of the 2019 vs. 2018 holiday timeline. Holiday shopping kicked off earlier this year, with department stores seeing increased activity in October. With a condensed holiday window, it’s now up to retailers to drive more frequent visits and encourage consumers to linger longer in their stores.
Analyzing daily visits during last year’s holiday season, there were five weekends compared to four this year. Across key holiday gifting retail categories in 2023, those five weekends (Saturday and Sunday combined) accounted for 39% of total holiday season visits, defined as Thanksgiving Day through Christmas Eve. Individually, each weekend contributed between 7% and 9% of total sector visitation, with the last two weekends each capturing 9%. In 2024, each weekend would need to account for approximately 10% of total holiday season visits to match last year’s pace.
One advantage of having fewer weekends between Thanksgiving and Christmas is the reduction in lull periods, which are traditionally challenging for retailers trying to attract visitors. This year, two of the four weekends include Black Friday weekend and Super Saturday. In 2023, Black Friday alone accounted for 7% of total holiday visitation across the analyzed sectors, meaning a strong Black Friday could help offset the impact of having fewer weekends. By sector, Black Friday holds particular importance for department stores and consumer electronics retailers, as they typically see a higher share of visits on that day compared to other categories.
Another way to offset the five fewer shopping days? Increasing the time consumers spend in stores. In 2023, dwell times during Black Friday weekend (Thursday–Sunday) were, on average, three minutes longer than the full-year average across the analyzed sectors. Department stores had the largest gap, with visitors staying six minutes longer than average on Black Friday, followed by consumer electronics, superstores, and beauty retailers. These sectors are among the most popular for holiday shoppers during Black Friday weekend, making it encouraging that visitors stayed longer while seeking holiday deals.
A final advantage for physical retail is that fewer shopping days mean a shorter delivery window for e-commerce. With less time to shop, the holidays could sneak up on consumers, potentially driving more visitors into stores this year. While this is purely speculative, our enthusiasm for physical retail at Placer compels us to make at least one bold prediction!
1) Retail foot traffic faces lingering pressure – making promotions more critical than ever. Financial uncertainty, tariffs, and inflation continue to weigh on discretionary spending, making well-timed, targeted holiday promotions essential to reignite demand and drive in-store traffic.
2) The retail divide appears set to widen this holiday season – Luxury and off-price apparel are both outpacing overall retail, reflecting a deepening bifurcation of consumer behavior. And this December, the affluence gap between the two categories is expected to expand further, underscoring opportunities to engage both premium and value-focused shoppers across segments.
3) Despite slower overall performance, beauty and electronics have performed well during recent retail milestones. To make the most of this momentum, advertisers should align campaigns with shifting holiday audiences – electronics toward married homeowners and beauty toward affluent suburban families.
4) Early Promotions Could Lift In-Store Traffic – Last year, early holiday campaigns helped offset a shorter shopping season and sustain strong results. With another condensed window and continued shipping disruptions, retailers who start early and emphasize in-store availability will be best positioned to capture additional visits and outperform 2024’s results.
The holiday season is fast approaching, but this year’s backdrop looks especially complex. Consumers are navigating heightened financial uncertainty, with tariffs driving up prices and disrupting supply, while inflation continues to weigh on discretionary spending.
For retailers and advertisers, the stakes are high. The holiday period remains a critical window for promotional engagement, and success will depend on understanding consumer behavior and crafting promotions that are timed, targeted, and designed to meet shoppers where they are.
We turned to foot traffic data to uncover the key trends shaping this season’s retail environment, and to identify promotional strategies likely to succeed.
Consumer activity appeared strong in most of early 2025 – except in February, when extreme weather and leap-year comparisons drove sharp year-over-year (YoY) declines. But foot traffic slowed this summer, highlighting the toll of lingering financial uncertainty and strain.
For advertisers, this underscores how pivotal seasonal promotions will be in reigniting demand. With many consumers cutting back on discretionary spending, well-timed and well-targeted campaigns will be essential to encourage shoppers to spend more freely during the holidays. These promotions don’t have to rely solely on price cuts — pop-culture collaborations and other creative product launches have also proven highly effective in driving traffic this year.
> Financial uncertainty and tighter household budgets are weighing on retail foot traffic this year – making effective holiday promotions more critical than ever.
Still, not all retail categories have been equally affected by broader economic headwinds. Some segments have experienced softer demand, signaling where advertisers may need to take a more measured, efficiency-focused approach. Others, however, have shown notable resilience – offering opportunities to double down on creative promotions that deepen engagement during the holidays.
One such segment is home furnishings, which has seen YoY traffic gains over the past 12 months, driven by the strong performance of discount chains as shoppers favor accessible décor updates over large-scale renovations. Strategic campaigns highlighting affordable refreshes and quick “holiday-ready” makeovers could give the category an additional lift in Q4, as households look to update their spaces in preparation for hosting family and friends.
But the biggest gains have been in the apparel category, where a bifurcation trend has emerged, boosting visits at both luxury and off-price retailers. The success of both segments underscores promotional strategies that can amplify momentum – steep-value discounts on one end of the spectrum, and exclusivity and quality on the other. Advertisers across retail segments can adapt this dual approach to engage both budget-driven and premium audiences effectively.
And demographic data reveals just how deeply entrenched this bifurcation has become – especially during the holiday season.
The chart below examines monthly changes in the median household incomes (HHIs) of luxury and off-price retailers’ captured markets since January 2023. Even small shifts in HHI across major retail categories can signal meaningful changes in audience composition – and these patterns tell a clear story.
In luxury apparel, where the median HHI is well above the national average of $79.6K, visitor income follows a distinct seasonal rhythm. During the early holiday shopping period, HHI remains lower in October and dips slightly in November as middle-income shoppers take advantage of early promotions to snag products that may be out of reach the rest of the year. It then rises in December as affluent consumers return to purchase gifts. Notably, luxury HHI has trended upward since 2023 – with each holiday peak higher than the last – suggesting that this December’s visitor base will be even more affluent than last year.
For advertisers, this means late-season campaigns should prioritize prestige audiences while still engaging aspirational shoppers during early holiday promotions like Black Friday.
In the off-price apparel segment, on the other hand, median HHI typically declines during the holidays – especially in December – indicating an influx of more price-sensitive shoppers. And over time, this visitor base has become even more value-driven, reinforcing the importance of promotional messaging that emphasizes unbeatable deals and savings.
Together, these patterns once again highlight the growing need for tailored strategies: premium experiences for high earners and sharp value propositions for cost-conscious consumers – a lesson that may extend well beyond these categories.
>The retail divide is expected to deepen further in December 2025, with off-price retailers drawing more value-driven shoppers and luxury brands attracting increasingly affluent consumers.
In a challenging economic environment, one might expect promotions around key retail milestones to prompt consumers to deviate from their usual habits, experimenting with new brands or categories. Yet the data shows that, for the most part, shoppers instead deepened their engagement with the retailers they already patronize – utilizing holiday promotions to buy the same products at better prices.
The graph below shows that during recent shopping milestones, the off-price and luxury categories both stood out in YoY performance – reflecting the strong momentum sustained by both segments over the past twelve months.
Still, the graph above also highlights two additional segments potentially poised for holiday success: beauty & self care and electronics.
Despite slower traffic over the past year, beauty retailers saw notable spikes around key recent promotional moments – including Black Friday, Mother’s Day, and Memorial Day. And although electronics retailers continued to face headwinds as consumers delayed big-ticket purchases – including during last year’s Black Friday – more recent milestones have seen traffic stabilize or even increase YoY.
This indicates that the right promotional environment can still effectively drive engagement in these discretionary categories, and that deal-driven behavior is likely to remain a defining theme this holiday season. In addition, as the replacement cycle begins for major electronics first purchased during the pandemic, shoppers may be especially willing to upgrade to a new TV or laptop if the right offer comes along.
But to make the most of the opportunity presented by Q4, advertisers and retailers in the beauty and electronics spaces should pay close attention to the shifting demographics of their in-store audiences during the holiday season.
For electronics retailers, married couples and homeowners become increasingly important during the peak holiday shopping period. Their share in the category’s captured market rises consistently each December, indicating that campaigns emphasizing household upgrades, family entertainment, and quality-of-life improvements may resonate most effectively in late Q4.
In contrast, beauty retailers – typically buoyed by young professionals – see their audience composition shift towards suburbia during the holidays. In December, the share of wealthy suburban families in beauty retailers’ captured markets grows meaningfully, while the share of young professionals declines. Advertisers can capitalize by highlighting premium bundles, limited-edition sets, and gifting options that speak directly to these households’ desire for premium, family-oriented products.
> Off-price and luxury retailers maintained strong performance during major retail milestones, but beauty and electronics stand out as rising opportunities for the 2025 holiday season.
> As holiday demographics shift during the holiday season – with electronics drawing more married homeowners and beauty attracting wealthier suburban families – campaigns that reflect these audiences’ lifestyles and priorities will resonate most.
Timing is also a decisive factor in retailer and advertiser success during the holiday season.
Traditionally, the “core” holiday retail period begins with Black Friday and continues until Christmas Eve. But in 2024, there was one fewer week between these two milestones compared to the previous year. And to compensate, many retailers launched an “early” holiday season, rolling out promotions in October and early November to maximize consumer engagement.
As the graph below shows, the shorter “core” season of 2024 unsurprisingly drew less in-store traffic across retail categories than the longer period the year before. Yet by embracing early promotions, retailers offset much of this shortfall, leading to overall holiday season results that, in many cases, matched or even exceeded 2023’s performance.
Looking ahead, 2025 once again brings a compressed “core” shopping window. And with shipping disruptions still influenced by shifting tariff regulations, more consumers may turn to brick-and-mortar stores earlier in the season to ensure timely purchases – further supporting offline traffic.
If retailers and advertisers double down on early-season engagement while continuing to drive momentum through the “core” weeks, YoY traffic for the 2025 holiday season could deliver even bigger overall gains than those seen in 2024.
> Last year, early holiday promotions helped offset a shorter core holiday season.
> In 2025, retail and advertising professionals are again faced with a relatively short core shopping season. And aware of the condensed timeline and shipping disruptions, more shoppers may opt for early in-store purchases to avoid the risk of delayed deliveries.
This holiday season will reward advertisers and retailers who recognize the growing retail divide and tailor their messaging to the shoppers most likely to visit during the holidays – whether married homeowners on the hunt for electronics or affluent suburban families seeking beauty products. As in 2024, acting early to offset a shorter core shopping period will be essential to capturing demand. And those who combine sharp timing with audience insight will be best positioned to turn a complex season into a strong finish.
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1) Value Wins in 2025: Discount & Dollar Stores and Off-Price Apparel are outperforming as consumers prioritize value and the “treasure-hunt” experience.
2) Small Splurges Over Big Projects: Clothing and Home Furnishing traffic remains strong as shoppers favor accessible wardrobe updates and decor refreshes instead of major renovations.
3) Big-Ticket Weakness: Electronics and Home Improvement visits continue to lag, reflecting a continued deferment of larger purchases.
4) Bifurcation in Apparel: Visits to off-price and luxury segments are growing, while general apparel, athleisure, and department stores face ongoing pressures from consumer trade-downs.
5) Income Dynamics Shape Apparel: Higher-income shoppers sustain luxury and athleisure, while off-price is driving traffic from more lower-income consumers.
6) Beauty Normalizes but Stays Relevant: After a pandemic-driven surge, YoY declines likely indicate that beauty visits are stabilizing; shorter trips are giving way to longer visits as retailers deploy new tech and immersive experiences.
Economic headwinds, including tariffs and higher everyday costs, are limiting discretionary budgets and prompting consumers to make more selective choices about where they spend. But despite these pressures, foot traffic to several discretionary retail categories continues to thrive year-over-year (YoY).
Of the discretionary categories analyzed, fitness and apparel had the strongest year-over-year traffic trends – likely thanks to consumers finding perceived value in these segments.
Fitness and apparel (boosted by off-price) appeal to value-driven, experience seeking consumers – fitness thanks to its membership model of unlimited visits for an often low fee, and off-price with its discount prices and treasure-hunt dynamic. Both categories may also be riding a cultural wave tied to the growing use of GLP-1s, as more consumers pursue fitness goals and refresh their wardrobes to match changing lifestyles and sizes.
Big-ticket categories, including electronics, also faced significant challenges, as tighter consumer budgets hamper growth in the space. Traffic to home improvement retailers also generally declined, as lagging home sales and consumers putting off costly renovations likely contributed to the softness in the space.
But home furnishing visits pulled ahead in July and August 2025 – benefitting from strong performances at discount chains such as HomeGoods – suggesting that consumers are directing their home-oriented spending towards more accessible decor.
The beauty sector – typically a resilient "affordable luxury" category – also experienced declines in recent months. The slowdown can be partially attributed to stabilization following several years of intense growth, but it may also mean that consumers are simplifying their beauty routines or shifting their beauty buying online.
> Traffic to fitness and apparel chains – led by off-price – continued to grow YoY in 2025, as value and experiences continue to draw consumers.
> Consumers are shopping for accessible home decor upgrades to refresh their space rather than undertaking major renovations.
> Shoppers are holding off on big-ticket purchases, leading to YoY declines in the electronics and home improvement categories.
> Beauty has experienced softening traffic trends as the sector stabilizes following its recent years of hypergrowth as shoppers simplify routines and shift some of their spending online.
After two years of visit declines, the Home Furnishings category rebounded in 2025, with visits up 4.9% YoY between January and August. By contrast, Home Improvement continued its multi-year downward trend, though the pace of decline appears to have slowed.
So what’s fueling Home Furnishings’ resurgence while Home Improvement visits remain soft? Probably a combination of factors, including a more affluent shopper base and a product mix that includes a variety of lower-ticket items.
On the audience side, this category draws a much larger share of visits from suburban and urban areas, with a median household income well above that of home improvement shoppers. The differences are especially pronounced when analyzing the audience in their captured markets – indicating that the gap stems not just from store locations, but from meaningful differences in the types of consumers each category attracts.
Home improvement's larger share of rural visits is not accidental – home improvement leaders have been intentionally expanding into smaller markets for a while. But while betting on rural markets is likely to pay off down the line, home improvement may continue to face headwinds in the near future as its rural shopper base grapples with fewer discretionary dollars.
On the merchandise side, home improvement chains cater to larger renovations and higher-cost projects – and have likely been impacted by the slowdown in larger-ticket purchases which is also impacting the electronics space. Meanwhile, home furnishing chains carry a large assortment of lower-ticket items, including home decor, accessories, and tableware.
Consumers are still spending more time at home now than they were pre-COVID, and investing in comfortable living spaces is more important than ever. And although many high-income consumers are also tightening their belts, upgrading tableware or even a piece of furniture is still much cheaper than undertaking a renovation – which could explain the differences in traffic trends.
Traditional apparel, mid-tier department stores, and activewear chains all experienced similar levels of YoY traffic declines in 2025 YTD, as shown in the graph above. But analyzing traffic data from 2021 shows that each segment's dip is part of a trajectory unique to that segment.
Traffic to mid-tier department stores has been trending downward since 2021, a shift tied not only to macroeconomic headwinds but also to structural changes in the sector. The pandemic accelerated e-commerce adoption, hitting department stores particularly hard as consumers seeking one-stop shopping and broad assortments increasingly turned to the convenience of online channels.
Traffic to traditional apparel chains has also not fully recovered from the pandemic, but the segment did consistently outperform mid-tier department stores and luxury retailers between 2021 and 2024. But in H1 2025, the dynamic with luxury shifted, so that traffic trends at luxury apparel retailers are now stronger than at traditional apparel both YoY and compared to Q1 2019. This highlights the current bifurcation of consumer spending also in the apparel space, as luxury and off-price segments outperform mid-market chains.
In contrast, the activewear & athleisure category continues to outperform its pre-pandemic baseline, despite experiencing a slight YoY softening in 2025 as consumers tighten their budgets. The category has capitalized on post-lockdown lifestyle shifts, and comfort-driven wardrobes that blur the line between work, fitness, and leisure remain entrenched consumer staples several years on.
The two segments with the highest YoY growth – off-price and luxury – are at the two ends of the spectrum in terms of household income levels, highlighting the bifurcation that has characterized much of the retail space in 2025. And luxury and off-price are also benefiting from larger consumer trends that are boosting performance at both premium and value-focused retailers.
In-store traffic behavior reveals that these two segments enjoy the longest average dwell times in the apparel category, with an average visit to a luxury or off-price retailer lasting 39.2 and 41.3 minutes, respectively. This suggests that consumers are drawn to the experiential aspect of both segments – treasure hunting at off-price chains or indulging in a sense of prestige at a luxury retailer. Together, these patterns highlight that – despite appealing to different consumer groups – both ends of the market are thriving by offering shopping experiences that foster longer engagement.
> Off-price and luxury segments are outperforming, while general apparel, athleisure, and department store visits lag YoY under tariff pressures and consumer trade-downs.
> Looking over the longer term reveals that athleisure is still far ahead of its pre-pandemic baseline – even if YoY demand has softened.
> Luxury and off-price both are thriving by offering shopping experiences that foster longer engagement.
The beauty sector has long benefitted from the “lipstick effect” — the tendency for consumers to indulge in small luxuries even when discretionary spending is constrained. And while the beauty category’s softening in today’s cautious spending environment could suggest that this effect has weakened, a longer view of the data tells a more nuanced story.
Beauty visits grew significantly between 2021 and 2024, fueled by a confluence of factors including post-pandemic “revenge shopping,” demand for bolder looks as consumers returned to social life, and new store openings and retail partnerships. Against that backdrop, recent YoY traffic dips are likely a sign of stabilization rather than true declines. Social commerce, and minimalist skincare routines may be moderating in-store traffic, but shoppers are still engaged, even as they blend online and offline shopping or seek out lower-cost alternatives to maximize value.
Analysis of average visit duration for three leading beauty chains – Ulta Beauty, Bath & Body Works, and Sally Beauty Supply – highlights the shifting role but continued relevance of physical stores in the space.
Average visit duration decreased post-pandemic – likely due to more purposeful trips and increased online product discovery. But that trend began to reverse in H1 2025, signaling the changing role of physical stores. Enhanced tech for in-store product exploration and rich experiences may be helping drive deeper engagement, underscoring beauty retail’s staying power even in a more measured spending environment.
Bottom Line:
> Beauty’s slight YoY visit declines point to a period of normalization following a post-pandemic boom, while longer-term trends show the category remains stronger than pre-pandemic levels.
> Visits grew shorter post-pandemic, driven by more purposeful trips and increased online product discovery – but dwell time is now lengthening again, signaling renewed in-store engagement driven by tech-enabled discovery and immersive experiences.
Foot traffic data highlight major differences in the recent performance of various discretionary apparel categories. Off-price, fitness, and home furnishings are pulling ahead, well-positioned to keep capitalizing on shifting priorities. Luxury also remains resilient, likely thanks to its higher-income visitor base.
At the same time, beauty’s normalization and the slowdown in mid-tier apparel, electronics, and home improvement show that caution persists across discretionary budgets. Moving forward, retailers that align with consumers’ demand for value, accessible upgrades, and immersive experiences may be best placed to thrive in this era of selective spending.
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1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery formats grew year-over-year in Q2 2025, with traditional grocers posting their first rebound since early 2024.
2) Value grocers slow: After leading during the 2022–24 trade-down wave, value grocer growth has decelerated as that shift matures.
3) Fresh formats surge: Now the fastest-growing segment, fueled by affluent shoppers seeking health, wellness, and convenience.
4) Bifurcation widens: Growth concentrated at both the low-income (value) and high-income (fresh) ends, highlighting polarized spending.
5) Shopping missions diverge: Short trips are rising, supporting fresh formats, while traditional grocers retain loyal stock-up customers and value chains capture fill-in trips through private labels.
6) Traditional grocers adapt: H-E-B and Harris Teeter outperformed by tailoring strategies to their core geographies and demographics.Bifurcation of Consumer Spending Help Fresh Format Lead Grocery Growth
Grocery traffic across all four major categories – value grocers, fresh format, traditional grocery, ethnic grocers – was up year over year in Q2 2025 as shoppers continue to engage with a wide range of grocery formats. Traditional grocery posted its first YoY traffic increase since Q1 2024, while ethnic grocers maintained their steady pattern of modest but consistent gains.
Value grocers, which dominated growth through most of 2024 as shoppers prioritized affordability, continued to expand but have now ceded leadership to fresh-format grocers. Rising food costs between 2022 and 2024 drove many consumers to chains like Aldi and Lidl, but much of this “trade-down” movement has already occurred. Although price sensitivity still shapes consumer choices – keeping the value segment on an upward trajectory – its growth momentum has slowed, making it less of a driver for the overall sector.
Fresh-format grocers have now taken the lead, posting the strongest YoY traffic gains of any category in 2025. This segment, anchored by players like Sprouts, appeals to the highest-income households of the four categories, signaling a growing influence of affluent shoppers on the competitive grocery landscape. Despite accounting for just 7.0% of total grocery visits in H1 2025, the segment’s rapid gains point to a broader shift: premium brands emphasizing health and wellness are emerging as the primary engine of growth in the grocery sector.
The fact that value grocers and fresh-format grocers – segments with the lowest and highest median household incomes among their customer bases – are the two categories driving the most growth underscores how the bifurcation of consumer spending is playing out in the grocery space as well. On one end, price-sensitive shoppers continue to seek out affordable options, while on the other, affluent consumers are fueling demand for premium, health-oriented formats. This dual-track growth pattern highlights how widening economic divides are reshaping competitive dynamics in grocery retail.
1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery categories posted YoY traffic gains in Q2 2025.
2) Traditional grocery rebound: First YoY increase since Q1 2024.
3) Ethnic grocers: Continued steady but modest upward trend.
4) Value grocers: Still growing, but slowing after most trade-down activity already occurred (2022–24).
5) Fresh formats: Now the fastest-growing segment, driven by affluent shoppers and interest in health & wellness.
6) Market shift: Premium, health-oriented brands are becoming the new growth driver in grocery.
7) Bifurcation of spending: Growth at both value and fresh-format grocers highlights a polarization in consumer spending patterns that is reshaping grocery competition.
Over the past two years, short grocery trips (under 10 minutes) have grown far more quickly than longer visits. While they still make up less than one-quarter of all U.S. grocery trips, their steady expansion suggests this behavioral shift is here to stay and that its full impact on the industry has yet to be realized.
One format particularly aligned with this trend is the fresh-format grocer, where average dwell times are shorter than in other categories. Yet despite benefiting from the rise of convenience-driven shopping, fresh formats attract the smallest share of loyal visitors (4+ times per month). This indicates they are rarely used for a primary weekly shop. Instead, they capture supplemental trips from consumers looking for specific needs – unique items, high-quality produce, or a prepared meal – who also value the ability to get in and out quickly.
In contrast, leading traditional grocers like H-E-B and Kroger thrive on a classic supermarket model built around frequent, comprehensive shopping trips. With the highest share of loyal visitors (38.5% and 27.6% respectively), they command a reliable customer base coming for full grocery runs and taking time to fill their carts.
Value grocers follow a different, but equally effective playbook. Positioned as primary “fill-in” stores, they sit between traditional and fresh formats in both dwell time and visit frequency. Many rely on limited assortments and a heavy emphasis on private-label goods, encouraging shoppers to build larger baskets around basics and store brands. Still, the data suggests consumers reserve their main grocery hauls for traditional supermarkets with broader selections, while using value grocers to stretch budgets and stock up on essentials.
1) Short trips surge: Under-10-minute visits have grown fastest, signaling a lasting behavioral shift.
2) Fresh formats thrive on convenience: Small footprints, prepared foods, and specialty items align with quick missions.
3) Traditional grocers retain loyalty: Traditional grocers such as H-E-B and Kroger attract frequent, comprehensive stock-up trips.
4) Value grocers fill the middle ground: Limited assortments and private label drive larger baskets, but main hauls remain with traditional supermarkets.
5) Fresh formats as supplements: Fresh format grocers such as The Fresh Market capture quick, specialized trips rather than weekly shops.
While broad market trends favor value and fresh-format grocers, certain traditional grocers are proving that a tailored strategy is a powerful tool for success. In the first half of 2025, H-E-B and Harris Teeter significantly outperformed their category's modest 0.6% average year-over-year visit growth, posting impressive gains of 5.6% and 2.8%, respectively. Their success demonstrates that even in a polarizing environment, there is ample room for traditional formats to thrive by deeply understanding and catering to a specific target audience.
These two brands achieve their success with distinctly different, yet equally focused, demographic strategies. H-E-B, a Texas powerhouse, leans heavily into major metropolitan areas like Austin and San Antonio. This urban focus is clear, with 32.6% of its visitors coming from urban centers and their peripheries, far above the category average. Conversely, Harris Teeter has cultivated a strong following in suburban and satellite cities in the South Atlantic region, drawing a massive 78.3% of its traffic from these areas. This deliberate targeting shows that knowing your customer's geography and lifestyle remains a winning formula for growth.
1) Traditional grocers can still be competitive: H-E-B (+5.6% YoY) and Harris Teeter (+2.8% YoY) outpaced the category average of +0.6% in H1 2025.
2) H-E-B’s strategy: Strong urban focus, with 32.6% of traffic from major metro areas like Austin and San Antonio.
3) Harris Teeter’s strategy: Suburban and satellite city focus, with 78.3% of traffic from South Atlantic suburbs.
