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Off-price apparel chains continue to resonate with inflation-conscious shoppers seeking their favorite brands without significant expense. We examined the visitation patterns for several major players in this sector – T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, Ross Dress for Less, and Burlington – to gain insight into their performance during the first half of the year.
Off-price leaders continued to enjoy elevated visits throughout Q1 2025, with all of the analyzed chains experiencing visit growth. Burlington led the visit growth charge with 6.5% more visits in Q1 2025 than in Q1 2024, followed by T.J. Maxx and Marshalls (both owned by parent company TJX Companies), at 3.8% and 3.3%, respectively. Ross experienced the most modest year-over-year (YoY) visit growth of 0.5% in Q1 2025 – but still outpaced the overall apparel segment, which saw visits dip by 3.2% YoY.
Average visits per location showed slightly more variance, however, with Ross and Burlington experiencing dips of 2.7% and 1.9% YoY. Still, both chains expanded their store fleets somewhat significantly in recent months, and these visit-per-location lags may diminish as customer traffic normalizes across their newer locations.
Diving into monthly visitation patterns – most months experienced growth, though YoY visits took a significant dive in February 2025, likely owing to inclement weather that kept many at home. And visits rebounded in March and April, while overall visits to the apparel segment remained below growth – highlighting off-price retailers’ continued ability to attract and retain consumers amid broader challenges facing retail.
But what lies behind off-price’s continuous rise? This segment has thrived for the past few years, defying the overall trends facing the apparel sector. A significant part of this success may stem from the segment’s inherent “treasure-hunt” experience – off-price shopping cultivates a browsing mentality, encouraging visitors to linger and explore the constantly changing inventory.
A closer look at average dwell times over the past few years – from the pre-pandemic era through the inflationary surges of 2023 and 2024 – reveals that visitors to off-price retailers linger significantly longer than those at overall apparel chains. For example, in 2025, visitors to T.J. Maxx and Burlington spent 40.3 and 43.9 minutes shopping, respectively, while visitors to apparel chains averaged just 33.3 minutes. To be sure, dwell times have slightly decreased across the board since COVID, likely due to factors such as increased interest in online shopping. But the longer dwell times at off-price stores highlight the sustained appeal of brick-and-mortar retail – especially when it offers added value.
And further cementing the “treasure hunt” engagement shopping aspect of off-price retail, visitors to the analyzed chains were significantly more likely to shop in the evening – between 6:00 and 10:00 PM – than visitors to other apparel chains.
This difference in visit timing suggests that off-price shoppers are indeed making a dedicated trip, reserving a good chunk of their evening – once their daily duties were taken care of – for extended browsing sessions. This strong engagement during evening hours may signify that shoppers are receptive to longer shopping hours.
Off-price retail continues to thrive, fueled, in part, by the “treasure hunt” experience. Shoppers to these chains are increasingly staying longer, and coming later in the day to maximize their shopping times – proving that, even in an unclear economic climate, there’s plenty of ways for retail to thrive.
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Department stores have faced their fair share of challenges in recent years – and many of these household names are still figuring out how to remain relevant and adapt to a challenging economic environment.
With the first half of the year nearly behind us, we took a look at the visit performance for some of the major players in the department store space to understand their current standing.
As consumer budgets continue to react to the strain of rising prices, department stores are experiencing mixed visitation patterns. While luxury shoppers have, in some cases, been more insulated from the effects of inflation and rising costs, visits to high-end department stores have not been spared from this overall volatility.
However, some department stores are rallying. Visits to Nordstrom (which will be shifting to private ownership soon) and Bloomingdale’s grew by 3.3% and 2.7%, respectively, in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024. Meanwhile, Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus – which recently merged – saw their Q1 2025 visits drop by -6.0% and -5.9% YoY, respectively.
Average visits per location showed more variance, with Nordstrom the only department store to experience growth in this metric (+4.1%).
Analyzing visits into April showed a continuation of the quarterly trends explored above. Nordstrom and Bloomingdale’s continued to enjoy visit growth for the most part, while Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus visits declined slightly relative to 2024.
While Nordstrom, Macy’s, and Saks are known for their luxury offerings, several other department stores cater to a more mid-range consumer – and like their luxury counterparts, their visit performance has varied since the start of the year.
In Q1 2025, Macy’s was the sole department store among those analyzed to experience overall visit growth – though none of the chains saw their average visits per location surpass those of Q1 2024. However, April visits offered a more positive outlook, with Belk and JCPenney, in particular, showing elevated visits in all but one week of April 2025. Dillard's also displayed promising visitation patterns, with weekly visits up for two weeks of April.
And in an environment where so many department stores are struggling, the ability for these brands to keep visits near, or above, previous years’ levels suggests that this segment is enjoying stability.
Despite the challenges facing the overall retail segment, department stores are proving their staying power. The strong visit performance of some – like Nordstrom and Belk – alongside the visit declines of others highlight that the way ahead looks different for every store.
With plenty of changes – including in ownership and merchandising initiatives – coming up for many of these chains, will visits continue to grow?
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Superstores remain American retail staples, and once again, wholesale clubs were the foot traffic winners of the space in Q1 2025. We dove into the data to explore how weather and expanding footprints played a part in visitation trends for Target, Walmart, Sam’s Club, BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Costco Wholesale and how the demographic characteristics of visitors impacted in-store shopping behavior.
Wholesale clubs outperformed traditional superstores in Q1 2025, as BJ’s, Sam’s Club, and Costco saw 2.7% to 6.1% YoY visit increases. BJ’s and Costco expanded their footprints over the past year, which likely caused overall visit growth to outpace visit-per-location increases.
Zooming in on monthly visits reveals more nuanced foot traffic patterns. After a strong January 2025, February’s YoY visits were impacted by the comparison to 2024’s leap year. And despite severe weather, YoY traffic to all of the analyzed chains improved in March 2025, perhaps due to consumers stocking up on essentials in preparation for the storms.
Although Walmart and Target saw YoY foot traffic declines in Q1 2025 overall, Walmart saw a 4.5% YoY visit increase in April, while Target saw its visit gap narrow. Some of the April strength may have been due to the pull-forward of consumer demand ahead of anticipated price hikes and supply constraints.
The two chains’ improved April performance was likely also aided by pre-Easter shopping, with Walmart receiving the more sizable visit boost. Last year, Easter fell during the week of March 25th, ‘24, but this year, Easter fell during the week of April 14th, ‘25, giving Walmart a 15.5% weekly visit boost while Target benefitted from a smaller 0.9% visit lift (compared to the weekly average YTD). Clearly, Walmart is a more popular pre-Easter shopping destination and the calendar shift played a part in the chain’s YoY visit growth in April.
All three of the leading wholesale clubs – BJ’s, Sam’s Club, and Costco – carry a variety of essentials sold in-bulk, as well as products from discretionary categories such as apparel, housewares, and electronics. But diving into the retailers’ captured trade areas in Q1 2025 reveals that each chain serves a slightly different audience.
Costco tends to attract visitors from higher-income areas and larger households (including those with children and non-family roommates) than either Sam’s Club or BJ’s. And since larger households may need to stock-up on essentials more frequently, this could account for Costco’s higher average share of repeat monthly visitors, and by extension, its strong membership renewal rate.
Meanwhile, Sam’s Club and BJ’s typically attract more single-person households and visitors from lower-income areas – at least in part because singles are often younger consumers who have yet to reach their peak earning years. This clientele presents an opportunity for Sam’s Club and BJ’s to foster lifetime brand loyalty among digitally-driven Millennials and Gen Z-ers and shoppers seeking value in what remains a challenging economic environment.
Visitors to Sam’s Club, BJ’s, and Costco also exhibit different in-store shopping behaviors. BJ’s and Sam’s Club visitors appear to make quicker trips, with both brands seeing a larger share of visits under thirty minutes than Costco in Q1 2025 – which may be due to the use of time-saving self-checkout apps and curbside pickup. Meanwhile, Costco experienced a greater share of weekday visits than either BJ’s or Sam’s Club – perhaps since shoppers from larger households are likely to replenish essentials mid-week and prepare for large weekend gatherings. An understanding of these consumer preferences and behaviors could help the chains build out their retail media networks and put the right promotions in front of shoppers at the right time.
Wholesale clubs and superstores remain go-to destinations for essentials – and nearly everything else – and are likely to maintain their positions as retail powerhouses going forward. Using location analytics, brands can better understand their consumer base and hone their retail strategies to drive further growth.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai.
We dove into the data to explore The Home Depot and Lowe’s recent foot traffic performance, audience profiles, and consumer trends shaping what lies ahead for the chains.
The home improvement space has seen YoY traffic lag for quite some time, as sustained challenges in the housing market and tight budgets have resulted in fewer home improvement projects. Despite these trends continuing in Q1 2025, YoY visit gaps to home improvement retailers remained relatively minor; The Home Depot received 3.8% less visits in Q1 2025 than in Q1 2024 while Lowe’s received 3.6% fewer visits.
Zooming in on monthly visits reveals more nuanced foot traffic patterns to The Home Depot and Lowe’s. February’s relatively dramatic declines in YoY visits were likely impacted by the comparison to 2024’s leap year. And in spite of severe weather, YoY traffic to the chains improved in March 2025 as consumers prepared their homes for storms.
Despite Q1 2025’s lackluster performance, analysis of weekly visits suggests that there is reason for optimism in the home improvement space. In 2024, industry foot traffic peaked in mid-May – perhaps as consumers took on pre-Summer projects – indicating that the next few weeks of 2025 present an opportunity for The Home Depot and Lowe’s to drive significant seasonal traffic.
As traffic to the home improvement space begins to turn a corner, analysis of the trade areas from which The Home Depot and Lowe’s attract visitors reveals that each chain serves a slightly different mix of rural, suburban, and urban audience segments.
In Q1 2025, both The Home Depot and Lowe’s were popular among consumers in regions defined as “Suburban Periphery” and “Metro Cities” (i.e. small metro areas and satellite cities). However, Lowe’s drove higher shares of traffic from rural segments and The Home Depot from strongly urbanized ones. This audience segmentation highlights several differences between the chains’ retail footprints and the regions from which they command traffic.
Despite prevailing headwinds, the home improvement space may be gearing up for a seasonal boost, particularly if consumers feel a little wiggle room in their budgets or decide to take on bigger projects in anticipation of price hikes and supply constraints.
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Boot Barn is one of the fast growing brick-and-mortar apparel brands, with the company seeing a 13.5% year-over-year (YoY) increase in overall visits in Q1 2025. And while much of the growth is driven by the chain’s expansion, the average number of visits per location has remained stable (+0.2% YoY in Q1 2025), suggesting that Boot Barn’s expansion is catering to an existing and eager consumer base.
The company’s strength continued into April, with average visits per venue up by 3.3% YoY – the strongest increase all year – perhaps boosted by consumers’ stocking up on apparel ahead of anticipated price hikes.
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Like many consumer companies, the first quarter of 2025 was a challenging one for quick-service restaurants (QSRs). Consistent with commentary from the management teams at several QSR chains that have reported first-quarter 2025 results, year-over-year foot traffic decreased amid increased economic uncertainty for consumers, with our data indicating a 1.6% decrease year over year (YoY). Major chains like McDonald's reported a 3.6% decrease in U.S. same-store sales, driven largely by reduced visits from lower- and middle-income consumers according to management. Despite efforts to attract budget-conscious diners through value promotions like $5 meal deals, many consumers opted to dine at home or shift to more affordable grocery options. However, some brands, including Taco Bell and Wingstop, managed to buck the trend by leveraging unique products and targeted promotions to drive traffic growth.
Below, we build upon our Q1 recap analyses and review year-to-date visitation trends for some of the more notable limited service chains.
McDonald's has not been immune to the increasingly challenging operating environment faced by QSR operators, reporting a 3.6% drop in U.S. same-store sales – the steepest since 2020. This reduction in guests comes amid heightened economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures, which particularly impacted low- and middle-income consumers and led to YoY decreases in visits across much of the retail sector. Our data indicated a 3.3% decrease in visits per location for the quarter, which compares favorably with McDonald’s reported results when adjusting for YoY menu price increases and product mix (an increase in McValue menu purchases has put downward pressure on the average check size). However, weekly visit per location trends have improved since the quarter ended, helped by new menu items, including chicken strips and a Minecraft-themed Happy Meal, to attract cost-conscious diners.
Chipotle Mexican Grill reported a comparable restaurant sales decline of 0.4% during Q1 2025, marking the first such drop since 2020. The comparable store sales decrease was driven by a 2.3% decrease in transaction volume, partially offset by a 1.9% increase in average check size. Our data indicated a 2.1% decrease in visits per location for the full quarter, aligning with the company’s reported results.
Like McDonald’s, Chipotle saw improved visitation trends in March, helped by the introduction of Honey Chicken Since as a protein option in March. According to management, the percentage of Honey Chicken orders as a percent of total has been higher than any other previous limited time offer and even surpassing its two-market pilot test. However, on its first-quarter update, management also called out a slowdown in underlying transaction trends during April as consumers reduced their frequency of restaurant visits amid economic concerns.
Starbucks' also faced a challenging consumer backdrop in the U.S. during its January-March 2025 quarter, with comparable store sales declining 2% year-over-year. This decrease was primarily driven by a 4% drop in transaction volume, partially offset by a 3% increase in average ticket size. Our data indicated [a 5.6% decrease in visits per location and 3.7% decrease in comparable visits]. The company attributed these pressures to decreased foot traffic and increased labor investments associated with its "Back to Starbucks" turnaround strategy. Despite these headwinds, CEO Brian Niccol expressed confidence in the ongoing transformation efforts aimed at enhancing customer experience and operational efficiency.
While Starbucks is still in the early days of implementing its turnaround strategies, competition from mid-sized chains like Dutch Bros, Scooter’s Coffee, and 7 Brew Coffee has become more pronounced. As we recently discussed, these emerging competitors experienced significant year-over-year visit increases—13.4% for Dutch Bros, 15.3% for Scooter’s, and an impressive 87.3% for 7 Brew—suggesting that consumers are increasingly drawn to unique, indulgent offerings and convenient formats such as drive-thrus. Despite Starbucks' strong customer loyalty, the rise of these agile rivals indicates a shift in consumer preferences toward more personalized and experiential coffee options.
In Q1 2025, Taco Bell's emphasis on product innovation significantly contributed to its strong performance, with U.S. same-store sales increasing by 9%. Management noted that "Taco Bell saw a significant expansion in consumer penetration" which helped the brand to grow traffic low single digits, which is consistent with our year-over-year visit per location trends shown below.
The brand introduced a variety of new menu items, including the Caliente Cantina Chicken Menu featuring a spicy red jalapeño sauce, and the Flamin' Hot Burrito filled with seasoned beef, nacho cheese sauce, and Flamin' Hot Cheetos. Additionally, Taco Bell brought back its crispy chicken nuggets, marinated in jalapeño buttermilk and coated with breadcrumbs and tortilla chips, aiming to make them a permanent menu item by 2026. These innovative offerings, alongside value-focused options like the $5, $7, and $9 Luxe Cravings Boxes, have attracted a broad customer base, reinforcing Taco Bell's position as a leader in the quick-service restaurant industry.
Conclusion
Overall, the first quarter of 2025 underscored the increasingly competitive and economically sensitive landscape facing quick-service restaurant chains. While many brands struggled with softer consumer demand and declining visit volumes, a few outliers like Taco Bell and Wingstop demonstrated the power of targeted innovation and promotional strategies. As macroeconomic pressures persist, success in the QSR space will likely hinge on a brand’s ability to balance value offerings with menu excitement, respond quickly to evolving consumer behaviors, and differentiate through experience—whether through digital innovation, drive-thru efficiency, or localized product development.
For more data-driven dining analysis, visit placer.ai/anchor.
1) Retail foot traffic faces lingering pressure – making promotions more critical than ever. Financial uncertainty, tariffs, and inflation continue to weigh on discretionary spending, making well-timed, targeted holiday promotions essential to reignite demand and drive in-store traffic.
2) The retail divide appears set to widen this holiday season – Luxury and off-price apparel are both outpacing overall retail, reflecting a deepening bifurcation of consumer behavior. And this December, the affluence gap between the two categories is expected to expand further, underscoring opportunities to engage both premium and value-focused shoppers across segments.
3) Despite slower overall performance, beauty and electronics have performed well during recent retail milestones. To make the most of this momentum, advertisers should align campaigns with shifting holiday audiences – electronics toward married homeowners and beauty toward affluent suburban families.
4) Early Promotions Could Lift In-Store Traffic – Last year, early holiday campaigns helped offset a shorter shopping season and sustain strong results. With another condensed window and continued shipping disruptions, retailers who start early and emphasize in-store availability will be best positioned to capture additional visits and outperform 2024’s results.
The holiday season is fast approaching, but this year’s backdrop looks especially complex. Consumers are navigating heightened financial uncertainty, with tariffs driving up prices and disrupting supply, while inflation continues to weigh on discretionary spending.
For retailers and advertisers, the stakes are high. The holiday period remains a critical window for promotional engagement, and success will depend on understanding consumer behavior and crafting promotions that are timed, targeted, and designed to meet shoppers where they are.
We turned to foot traffic data to uncover the key trends shaping this season’s retail environment, and to identify promotional strategies likely to succeed.
Consumer activity appeared strong in most of early 2025 – except in February, when extreme weather and leap-year comparisons drove sharp year-over-year (YoY) declines. But foot traffic slowed this summer, highlighting the toll of lingering financial uncertainty and strain.
For advertisers, this underscores how pivotal seasonal promotions will be in reigniting demand. With many consumers cutting back on discretionary spending, well-timed and well-targeted campaigns will be essential to encourage shoppers to spend more freely during the holidays. These promotions don’t have to rely solely on price cuts — pop-culture collaborations and other creative product launches have also proven highly effective in driving traffic this year.
> Financial uncertainty and tighter household budgets are weighing on retail foot traffic this year – making effective holiday promotions more critical than ever.
Still, not all retail categories have been equally affected by broader economic headwinds. Some segments have experienced softer demand, signaling where advertisers may need to take a more measured, efficiency-focused approach. Others, however, have shown notable resilience – offering opportunities to double down on creative promotions that deepen engagement during the holidays.
One such segment is home furnishings, which has seen YoY traffic gains over the past 12 months, driven by the strong performance of discount chains as shoppers favor accessible décor updates over large-scale renovations. Strategic campaigns highlighting affordable refreshes and quick “holiday-ready” makeovers could give the category an additional lift in Q4, as households look to update their spaces in preparation for hosting family and friends.
But the biggest gains have been in the apparel category, where a bifurcation trend has emerged, boosting visits at both luxury and off-price retailers. The success of both segments underscores promotional strategies that can amplify momentum – steep-value discounts on one end of the spectrum, and exclusivity and quality on the other. Advertisers across retail segments can adapt this dual approach to engage both budget-driven and premium audiences effectively.
And demographic data reveals just how deeply entrenched this bifurcation has become – especially during the holiday season.
The chart below examines monthly changes in the median household incomes (HHIs) of luxury and off-price retailers’ captured markets since January 2023. Even small shifts in HHI across major retail categories can signal meaningful changes in audience composition – and these patterns tell a clear story.
In luxury apparel, where the median HHI is well above the national average of $79.6K, visitor income follows a distinct seasonal rhythm. During the early holiday shopping period, HHI remains lower in October and dips slightly in November as middle-income shoppers take advantage of early promotions to snag products that may be out of reach the rest of the year. It then rises in December as affluent consumers return to purchase gifts. Notably, luxury HHI has trended upward since 2023 – with each holiday peak higher than the last – suggesting that this December’s visitor base will be even more affluent than last year.
For advertisers, this means late-season campaigns should prioritize prestige audiences while still engaging aspirational shoppers during early holiday promotions like Black Friday.
In the off-price apparel segment, on the other hand, median HHI typically declines during the holidays – especially in December – indicating an influx of more price-sensitive shoppers. And over time, this visitor base has become even more value-driven, reinforcing the importance of promotional messaging that emphasizes unbeatable deals and savings.
Together, these patterns once again highlight the growing need for tailored strategies: premium experiences for high earners and sharp value propositions for cost-conscious consumers – a lesson that may extend well beyond these categories.
>The retail divide is expected to deepen further in December 2025, with off-price retailers drawing more value-driven shoppers and luxury brands attracting increasingly affluent consumers.
In a challenging economic environment, one might expect promotions around key retail milestones to prompt consumers to deviate from their usual habits, experimenting with new brands or categories. Yet the data shows that, for the most part, shoppers instead deepened their engagement with the retailers they already patronize – utilizing holiday promotions to buy the same products at better prices.
The graph below shows that during recent shopping milestones, the off-price and luxury categories both stood out in YoY performance – reflecting the strong momentum sustained by both segments over the past twelve months.
Still, the graph above also highlights two additional segments potentially poised for holiday success: beauty & self care and electronics.
Despite slower traffic over the past year, beauty retailers saw notable spikes around key recent promotional moments – including Black Friday, Mother’s Day, and Memorial Day. And although electronics retailers continued to face headwinds as consumers delayed big-ticket purchases – including during last year’s Black Friday – more recent milestones have seen traffic stabilize or even increase YoY.
This indicates that the right promotional environment can still effectively drive engagement in these discretionary categories, and that deal-driven behavior is likely to remain a defining theme this holiday season. In addition, as the replacement cycle begins for major electronics first purchased during the pandemic, shoppers may be especially willing to upgrade to a new TV or laptop if the right offer comes along.
But to make the most of the opportunity presented by Q4, advertisers and retailers in the beauty and electronics spaces should pay close attention to the shifting demographics of their in-store audiences during the holiday season.
For electronics retailers, married couples and homeowners become increasingly important during the peak holiday shopping period. Their share in the category’s captured market rises consistently each December, indicating that campaigns emphasizing household upgrades, family entertainment, and quality-of-life improvements may resonate most effectively in late Q4.
In contrast, beauty retailers – typically buoyed by young professionals – see their audience composition shift towards suburbia during the holidays. In December, the share of wealthy suburban families in beauty retailers’ captured markets grows meaningfully, while the share of young professionals declines. Advertisers can capitalize by highlighting premium bundles, limited-edition sets, and gifting options that speak directly to these households’ desire for premium, family-oriented products.
> Off-price and luxury retailers maintained strong performance during major retail milestones, but beauty and electronics stand out as rising opportunities for the 2025 holiday season.
> As holiday demographics shift during the holiday season – with electronics drawing more married homeowners and beauty attracting wealthier suburban families – campaigns that reflect these audiences’ lifestyles and priorities will resonate most.
Timing is also a decisive factor in retailer and advertiser success during the holiday season.
Traditionally, the “core” holiday retail period begins with Black Friday and continues until Christmas Eve. But in 2024, there was one fewer week between these two milestones compared to the previous year. And to compensate, many retailers launched an “early” holiday season, rolling out promotions in October and early November to maximize consumer engagement.
As the graph below shows, the shorter “core” season of 2024 unsurprisingly drew less in-store traffic across retail categories than the longer period the year before. Yet by embracing early promotions, retailers offset much of this shortfall, leading to overall holiday season results that, in many cases, matched or even exceeded 2023’s performance.
Looking ahead, 2025 once again brings a compressed “core” shopping window. And with shipping disruptions still influenced by shifting tariff regulations, more consumers may turn to brick-and-mortar stores earlier in the season to ensure timely purchases – further supporting offline traffic.
If retailers and advertisers double down on early-season engagement while continuing to drive momentum through the “core” weeks, YoY traffic for the 2025 holiday season could deliver even bigger overall gains than those seen in 2024.
> Last year, early holiday promotions helped offset a shorter core holiday season.
> In 2025, retail and advertising professionals are again faced with a relatively short core shopping season. And aware of the condensed timeline and shipping disruptions, more shoppers may opt for early in-store purchases to avoid the risk of delayed deliveries.
This holiday season will reward advertisers and retailers who recognize the growing retail divide and tailor their messaging to the shoppers most likely to visit during the holidays – whether married homeowners on the hunt for electronics or affluent suburban families seeking beauty products. As in 2024, acting early to offset a shorter core shopping period will be essential to capturing demand. And those who combine sharp timing with audience insight will be best positioned to turn a complex season into a strong finish.
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1) Value Wins in 2025: Discount & Dollar Stores and Off-Price Apparel are outperforming as consumers prioritize value and the “treasure-hunt” experience.
2) Small Splurges Over Big Projects: Clothing and Home Furnishing traffic remains strong as shoppers favor accessible wardrobe updates and decor refreshes instead of major renovations.
3) Big-Ticket Weakness: Electronics and Home Improvement visits continue to lag, reflecting a continued deferment of larger purchases.
4) Bifurcation in Apparel: Visits to off-price and luxury segments are growing, while general apparel, athleisure, and department stores face ongoing pressures from consumer trade-downs.
5) Income Dynamics Shape Apparel: Higher-income shoppers sustain luxury and athleisure, while off-price is driving traffic from more lower-income consumers.
6) Beauty Normalizes but Stays Relevant: After a pandemic-driven surge, YoY declines likely indicate that beauty visits are stabilizing; shorter trips are giving way to longer visits as retailers deploy new tech and immersive experiences.
Economic headwinds, including tariffs and higher everyday costs, are limiting discretionary budgets and prompting consumers to make more selective choices about where they spend. But despite these pressures, foot traffic to several discretionary retail categories continues to thrive year-over-year (YoY).
Of the discretionary categories analyzed, fitness and apparel had the strongest year-over-year traffic trends – likely thanks to consumers finding perceived value in these segments.
Fitness and apparel (boosted by off-price) appeal to value-driven, experience seeking consumers – fitness thanks to its membership model of unlimited visits for an often low fee, and off-price with its discount prices and treasure-hunt dynamic. Both categories may also be riding a cultural wave tied to the growing use of GLP-1s, as more consumers pursue fitness goals and refresh their wardrobes to match changing lifestyles and sizes.
Big-ticket categories, including electronics, also faced significant challenges, as tighter consumer budgets hamper growth in the space. Traffic to home improvement retailers also generally declined, as lagging home sales and consumers putting off costly renovations likely contributed to the softness in the space.
But home furnishing visits pulled ahead in July and August 2025 – benefitting from strong performances at discount chains such as HomeGoods – suggesting that consumers are directing their home-oriented spending towards more accessible decor.
The beauty sector – typically a resilient "affordable luxury" category – also experienced declines in recent months. The slowdown can be partially attributed to stabilization following several years of intense growth, but it may also mean that consumers are simplifying their beauty routines or shifting their beauty buying online.
> Traffic to fitness and apparel chains – led by off-price – continued to grow YoY in 2025, as value and experiences continue to draw consumers.
> Consumers are shopping for accessible home decor upgrades to refresh their space rather than undertaking major renovations.
> Shoppers are holding off on big-ticket purchases, leading to YoY declines in the electronics and home improvement categories.
> Beauty has experienced softening traffic trends as the sector stabilizes following its recent years of hypergrowth as shoppers simplify routines and shift some of their spending online.
After two years of visit declines, the Home Furnishings category rebounded in 2025, with visits up 4.9% YoY between January and August. By contrast, Home Improvement continued its multi-year downward trend, though the pace of decline appears to have slowed.
So what’s fueling Home Furnishings’ resurgence while Home Improvement visits remain soft? Probably a combination of factors, including a more affluent shopper base and a product mix that includes a variety of lower-ticket items.
On the audience side, this category draws a much larger share of visits from suburban and urban areas, with a median household income well above that of home improvement shoppers. The differences are especially pronounced when analyzing the audience in their captured markets – indicating that the gap stems not just from store locations, but from meaningful differences in the types of consumers each category attracts.
Home improvement's larger share of rural visits is not accidental – home improvement leaders have been intentionally expanding into smaller markets for a while. But while betting on rural markets is likely to pay off down the line, home improvement may continue to face headwinds in the near future as its rural shopper base grapples with fewer discretionary dollars.
On the merchandise side, home improvement chains cater to larger renovations and higher-cost projects – and have likely been impacted by the slowdown in larger-ticket purchases which is also impacting the electronics space. Meanwhile, home furnishing chains carry a large assortment of lower-ticket items, including home decor, accessories, and tableware.
Consumers are still spending more time at home now than they were pre-COVID, and investing in comfortable living spaces is more important than ever. And although many high-income consumers are also tightening their belts, upgrading tableware or even a piece of furniture is still much cheaper than undertaking a renovation – which could explain the differences in traffic trends.
Traditional apparel, mid-tier department stores, and activewear chains all experienced similar levels of YoY traffic declines in 2025 YTD, as shown in the graph above. But analyzing traffic data from 2021 shows that each segment's dip is part of a trajectory unique to that segment.
Traffic to mid-tier department stores has been trending downward since 2021, a shift tied not only to macroeconomic headwinds but also to structural changes in the sector. The pandemic accelerated e-commerce adoption, hitting department stores particularly hard as consumers seeking one-stop shopping and broad assortments increasingly turned to the convenience of online channels.
Traffic to traditional apparel chains has also not fully recovered from the pandemic, but the segment did consistently outperform mid-tier department stores and luxury retailers between 2021 and 2024. But in H1 2025, the dynamic with luxury shifted, so that traffic trends at luxury apparel retailers are now stronger than at traditional apparel both YoY and compared to Q1 2019. This highlights the current bifurcation of consumer spending also in the apparel space, as luxury and off-price segments outperform mid-market chains.
In contrast, the activewear & athleisure category continues to outperform its pre-pandemic baseline, despite experiencing a slight YoY softening in 2025 as consumers tighten their budgets. The category has capitalized on post-lockdown lifestyle shifts, and comfort-driven wardrobes that blur the line between work, fitness, and leisure remain entrenched consumer staples several years on.
The two segments with the highest YoY growth – off-price and luxury – are at the two ends of the spectrum in terms of household income levels, highlighting the bifurcation that has characterized much of the retail space in 2025. And luxury and off-price are also benefiting from larger consumer trends that are boosting performance at both premium and value-focused retailers.
In-store traffic behavior reveals that these two segments enjoy the longest average dwell times in the apparel category, with an average visit to a luxury or off-price retailer lasting 39.2 and 41.3 minutes, respectively. This suggests that consumers are drawn to the experiential aspect of both segments – treasure hunting at off-price chains or indulging in a sense of prestige at a luxury retailer. Together, these patterns highlight that – despite appealing to different consumer groups – both ends of the market are thriving by offering shopping experiences that foster longer engagement.
> Off-price and luxury segments are outperforming, while general apparel, athleisure, and department store visits lag YoY under tariff pressures and consumer trade-downs.
> Looking over the longer term reveals that athleisure is still far ahead of its pre-pandemic baseline – even if YoY demand has softened.
> Luxury and off-price both are thriving by offering shopping experiences that foster longer engagement.
The beauty sector has long benefitted from the “lipstick effect” — the tendency for consumers to indulge in small luxuries even when discretionary spending is constrained. And while the beauty category’s softening in today’s cautious spending environment could suggest that this effect has weakened, a longer view of the data tells a more nuanced story.
Beauty visits grew significantly between 2021 and 2024, fueled by a confluence of factors including post-pandemic “revenge shopping,” demand for bolder looks as consumers returned to social life, and new store openings and retail partnerships. Against that backdrop, recent YoY traffic dips are likely a sign of stabilization rather than true declines. Social commerce, and minimalist skincare routines may be moderating in-store traffic, but shoppers are still engaged, even as they blend online and offline shopping or seek out lower-cost alternatives to maximize value.
Analysis of average visit duration for three leading beauty chains – Ulta Beauty, Bath & Body Works, and Sally Beauty Supply – highlights the shifting role but continued relevance of physical stores in the space.
Average visit duration decreased post-pandemic – likely due to more purposeful trips and increased online product discovery. But that trend began to reverse in H1 2025, signaling the changing role of physical stores. Enhanced tech for in-store product exploration and rich experiences may be helping drive deeper engagement, underscoring beauty retail’s staying power even in a more measured spending environment.
Bottom Line:
> Beauty’s slight YoY visit declines point to a period of normalization following a post-pandemic boom, while longer-term trends show the category remains stronger than pre-pandemic levels.
> Visits grew shorter post-pandemic, driven by more purposeful trips and increased online product discovery – but dwell time is now lengthening again, signaling renewed in-store engagement driven by tech-enabled discovery and immersive experiences.
Foot traffic data highlight major differences in the recent performance of various discretionary apparel categories. Off-price, fitness, and home furnishings are pulling ahead, well-positioned to keep capitalizing on shifting priorities. Luxury also remains resilient, likely thanks to its higher-income visitor base.
At the same time, beauty’s normalization and the slowdown in mid-tier apparel, electronics, and home improvement show that caution persists across discretionary budgets. Moving forward, retailers that align with consumers’ demand for value, accessible upgrades, and immersive experiences may be best placed to thrive in this era of selective spending.
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1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery formats grew year-over-year in Q2 2025, with traditional grocers posting their first rebound since early 2024.
2) Value grocers slow: After leading during the 2022–24 trade-down wave, value grocer growth has decelerated as that shift matures.
3) Fresh formats surge: Now the fastest-growing segment, fueled by affluent shoppers seeking health, wellness, and convenience.
4) Bifurcation widens: Growth concentrated at both the low-income (value) and high-income (fresh) ends, highlighting polarized spending.
5) Shopping missions diverge: Short trips are rising, supporting fresh formats, while traditional grocers retain loyal stock-up customers and value chains capture fill-in trips through private labels.
6) Traditional grocers adapt: H-E-B and Harris Teeter outperformed by tailoring strategies to their core geographies and demographics.Bifurcation of Consumer Spending Help Fresh Format Lead Grocery Growth
Grocery traffic across all four major categories – value grocers, fresh format, traditional grocery, ethnic grocers – was up year over year in Q2 2025 as shoppers continue to engage with a wide range of grocery formats. Traditional grocery posted its first YoY traffic increase since Q1 2024, while ethnic grocers maintained their steady pattern of modest but consistent gains.
Value grocers, which dominated growth through most of 2024 as shoppers prioritized affordability, continued to expand but have now ceded leadership to fresh-format grocers. Rising food costs between 2022 and 2024 drove many consumers to chains like Aldi and Lidl, but much of this “trade-down” movement has already occurred. Although price sensitivity still shapes consumer choices – keeping the value segment on an upward trajectory – its growth momentum has slowed, making it less of a driver for the overall sector.
Fresh-format grocers have now taken the lead, posting the strongest YoY traffic gains of any category in 2025. This segment, anchored by players like Sprouts, appeals to the highest-income households of the four categories, signaling a growing influence of affluent shoppers on the competitive grocery landscape. Despite accounting for just 7.0% of total grocery visits in H1 2025, the segment’s rapid gains point to a broader shift: premium brands emphasizing health and wellness are emerging as the primary engine of growth in the grocery sector.
The fact that value grocers and fresh-format grocers – segments with the lowest and highest median household incomes among their customer bases – are the two categories driving the most growth underscores how the bifurcation of consumer spending is playing out in the grocery space as well. On one end, price-sensitive shoppers continue to seek out affordable options, while on the other, affluent consumers are fueling demand for premium, health-oriented formats. This dual-track growth pattern highlights how widening economic divides are reshaping competitive dynamics in grocery retail.
1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery categories posted YoY traffic gains in Q2 2025.
2) Traditional grocery rebound: First YoY increase since Q1 2024.
3) Ethnic grocers: Continued steady but modest upward trend.
4) Value grocers: Still growing, but slowing after most trade-down activity already occurred (2022–24).
5) Fresh formats: Now the fastest-growing segment, driven by affluent shoppers and interest in health & wellness.
6) Market shift: Premium, health-oriented brands are becoming the new growth driver in grocery.
7) Bifurcation of spending: Growth at both value and fresh-format grocers highlights a polarization in consumer spending patterns that is reshaping grocery competition.
Over the past two years, short grocery trips (under 10 minutes) have grown far more quickly than longer visits. While they still make up less than one-quarter of all U.S. grocery trips, their steady expansion suggests this behavioral shift is here to stay and that its full impact on the industry has yet to be realized.
One format particularly aligned with this trend is the fresh-format grocer, where average dwell times are shorter than in other categories. Yet despite benefiting from the rise of convenience-driven shopping, fresh formats attract the smallest share of loyal visitors (4+ times per month). This indicates they are rarely used for a primary weekly shop. Instead, they capture supplemental trips from consumers looking for specific needs – unique items, high-quality produce, or a prepared meal – who also value the ability to get in and out quickly.
In contrast, leading traditional grocers like H-E-B and Kroger thrive on a classic supermarket model built around frequent, comprehensive shopping trips. With the highest share of loyal visitors (38.5% and 27.6% respectively), they command a reliable customer base coming for full grocery runs and taking time to fill their carts.
Value grocers follow a different, but equally effective playbook. Positioned as primary “fill-in” stores, they sit between traditional and fresh formats in both dwell time and visit frequency. Many rely on limited assortments and a heavy emphasis on private-label goods, encouraging shoppers to build larger baskets around basics and store brands. Still, the data suggests consumers reserve their main grocery hauls for traditional supermarkets with broader selections, while using value grocers to stretch budgets and stock up on essentials.
1) Short trips surge: Under-10-minute visits have grown fastest, signaling a lasting behavioral shift.
2) Fresh formats thrive on convenience: Small footprints, prepared foods, and specialty items align with quick missions.
3) Traditional grocers retain loyalty: Traditional grocers such as H-E-B and Kroger attract frequent, comprehensive stock-up trips.
4) Value grocers fill the middle ground: Limited assortments and private label drive larger baskets, but main hauls remain with traditional supermarkets.
5) Fresh formats as supplements: Fresh format grocers such as The Fresh Market capture quick, specialized trips rather than weekly shops.
While broad market trends favor value and fresh-format grocers, certain traditional grocers are proving that a tailored strategy is a powerful tool for success. In the first half of 2025, H-E-B and Harris Teeter significantly outperformed their category's modest 0.6% average year-over-year visit growth, posting impressive gains of 5.6% and 2.8%, respectively. Their success demonstrates that even in a polarizing environment, there is ample room for traditional formats to thrive by deeply understanding and catering to a specific target audience.
These two brands achieve their success with distinctly different, yet equally focused, demographic strategies. H-E-B, a Texas powerhouse, leans heavily into major metropolitan areas like Austin and San Antonio. This urban focus is clear, with 32.6% of its visitors coming from urban centers and their peripheries, far above the category average. Conversely, Harris Teeter has cultivated a strong following in suburban and satellite cities in the South Atlantic region, drawing a massive 78.3% of its traffic from these areas. This deliberate targeting shows that knowing your customer's geography and lifestyle remains a winning formula for growth.
1) Traditional grocers can still be competitive: H-E-B (+5.6% YoY) and Harris Teeter (+2.8% YoY) outpaced the category average of +0.6% in H1 2025.
2) H-E-B’s strategy: Strong urban focus, with 32.6% of traffic from major metro areas like Austin and San Antonio.
3) Harris Teeter’s strategy: Suburban and satellite city focus, with 78.3% of traffic from South Atlantic suburbs.
