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Overall visits to Gap Banners declined 3.8% in Q1 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, with average visits per location falling 4.2%. The company’s performance appears to have been impacted by a particularly challenging February, when the absence of a leap year day and severe weather events led to a 10.2% drop in overall visits and an 11.0% decrease in average visits per venue compared to February 2024.
The company’s traffic was also somewhat weighed down by Banana Republic’s performance, which posted the largest year-over-year (YoY) declines of all Gap banners during the analyzed period. Meanwhile, the Athleta banner – which struggled somewhat in 2024 – returned to modest growth in Q1 2025, with overall visits up 0.4% and average visits per location up 1.1% YoY.
Gap’s performance improved significantly in April, with the Gap and Old Navy banners seeing YoY increases in both overall visits and average visits per venue. Old Navy in particular saw its overall traffic jump 10.2% and average visits per location increase by 9.1% compared to April 2024 – likely boosted by a tariff-driven pull-forward in consumer demand.
Average visits per venue also increased at Banana Republic and Athleta – although both banners saw minor YoY declines in overall traffic. The positive April data may indicate that the company is gaining traction and could suggest a more robust year ahead.
Ulta saw YoY declines of 3.7% in total visits and 7.1% in average visits per venue in Q1 2025, driven in part by difficult comparisons to a strong Q1 2024. Like Gap, the company’s February performance likely hurt its Q1 performance, with February traffic down 7.4% and average visits per venue down 10.7% compared to February 2024. But Ulta’s visit metrics improved in March 2025, with visits just 1.0% lower than in March 2024, and average visits per venue metrics narrowing to a 4.3% decline.
By April 2025, overall visits were up 0.4% YoY, and visits per venue down just 2.8% – suggesting that Ulta, like Gap, is now on a potential upward trajectory.
While Q1 2025 presented challenges for both Gap and Ulta, the rebound in April traffic offers a hopeful indication of strengthening consumer engagement. Will the companies maintain their momentum, or was the April rally the result of a temporary pull-forward of demand?
Keep up with The Anchor to find out.
In early May 2025, horse racing fans were treated to the 151st Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs in Louisville, KY, with thoroughbred Sovereignty coming out the winner. And while all eyes were on the horses, (and maybe the hats,) we dove into the location analytics and psychographic characteristics of visitors to find out who attends the Kentucky Derby.
Analysis of Churchill Downs’ captured trade area over the last twelve months reveals that the racetrack tends to drive traffic from an affluent visitor base. Between May 2024 and April 2025 the dominant trade area audience segment was “Ultra Wealthy Families” (13.2%) – the Spatial.ai: Personalive grouping for the nation’s wealthiest households. This share of this segment within the racetrack’s trade area was well above the nationwide benchmark, more so than any other leading segment.
But digging deeper reveals Churchill Downs’ trade area contained significant shares of several suburban and rural segments as well, highlighting the non-urban quality of the racetrack’s visitors. The presence of large shares of “Wealthy Suburban Families” (12.1%) and “Upper Suburban Diverse Families” (11.4%) segments reflects a significant affluent suburban audience, while above-average shares of the “Rural Average Income” (8.6%) and “Rural High Income” (7.4%) segments indicates robust visitation from rural households with a range of incomes.
But on Kentucky Derby raceday in 2025, Churchill Downs’ audience changed significantly. The share of “Ultra Wealthy Families” within the venue’s trade area jumped to 20.1%, indicating that the race drove traffic from an even more affluent audience than usual, likely due to the many celebrities and other affluent guests descending on the event. Meanwhile, the share of the “Young Professionals” segment – singles still in school or starting their careers in white-collar and technical jobs – also increased (from 6.0% to 10.3%), perhaps indicating that the Kentucky Derby succeeded in attracting younger urban audiences looking for recreation and a cultural experience.
Still, non-urbanized audience segments remained well-represented within the race’s trade area (only the share of “Rural Average Income” households slipped below the segment’s nationwide benchmark), indicating that the event maintained much of Churchill Down’s typical spectator base.
Analysis of the 2025 Kentucky Derby’s physical trade area, which reflects the regions from which Churchill Downs Racetrack received visitors on the day, provides further insight into the event’s attendees.
The map below shows that the event drew spectators from the country’s major metro areas – and from some of the wealthiest – including New York City, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Miami. And some of these visitors may have come to Louisville for an extended stay – taking advantage of multiple Derby Week events and parties – contributing to a significant economic boost for the region.
Analyzing visitors’ area of origin also revealed robust visitation from Louisville and Lexington, KY, and both urban and non-urban areas in the East North Central region as a whole, as diverse local racing fans appeared to take advantage of their proximity to the most exciting two minutes in sports.
The Kentucky Derby is just the first event of thoroughbred racing’s Triple Crown, which continues with the fast approaching Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes.
What will audiences to these high-stakes races and other upcoming sporting events look like?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
In a year marked by shifting consumer habits and mounting challenges across the restaurant industry, Chili’s emerged as one of the breakout success stories of 2024 – and early signs suggest the momentum could continue into 2025.
Although many casual dining chains have struggled in recent years, Chili’s is standing out with strong year-over-year visitation growth, boosted by compelling value promotions, operational improvements, and a renewed focus on customer loyalty. The brand’s ability to balance affordability with innovation has resonated with price-conscious diners, helping it outperform both its casual dining peers and broader industry benchmarks. As economic uncertainty persists, Chili’s strategic approach may serve as a blueprint for how full-service restaurants can thrive in today’s competitive landscape.
According to our visitation data, Chili's share of the overall category has increased from approximately 6% to around 8%, a substantial jump. This growth is especially notable given that Chili’s U.S. restaurant count actually declined over the past year, from 1,230 locations in December 2023 to 1,209 as of December 2024.
Who is Chili’s taking visit share from? Essentially, everyone. Our data indicates that in Q1 2025, a meaningfully larger percentage of visitors from most leading quick-service and full-service chains also visited Chili’s, compared to Q1 2024. Admittedly, this increase in cross-visitation is partly because there are more Chili’s visitors than ever before – but the data also highlights Chili’s growing momentum, as the chain has succeeded in pulling traffic from both casual and quick-service competitors.
Chili's undeniably carved out a remarkable success story in 2024, and the compelling early 2025 data suggests the brand is strongly positioned to continue its impressive trajectory. The ability to significantly grow its market share and draw customers from a wide array of competitors speaks volumes about the effectiveness of its value promotions, operational improvements, and customer loyalty strategies.
Chili’s continues to demonstrate a potent combination of broad appeal and deepening customer engagement. While the full narrative of 2025 for the restaurant industry continues to unfold, Chili's appears to be on track to replicate its 2024 success and could very well solidify its status as the restaurant industry's standout performer for a second consecutive year.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Dollar Tree and Dollar General have been major foot traffic winners in recent years, attracting an ever-increasing customer base to their dramatically expanded store counts. And while this growth hasn’t been without its setbacks – like the sale of Family Dollar and recently announced store closures – the segment’s overall strength suggests that there is still room for these chains to continue growing.
We take a closer look at the foot traffic to the two biggest players in the space – Dollar General and Dollar Tree – to understand where the two brands stand.
Dollar General, one of the largest retailers in the United States, demonstrated a robust start to the year. Overall visits were up by 1.9% YoY in Q1 2025, while average visits per location held steady.
Diving into the monthly visit data offers insight into the slight dips in per-location visits – and potential trends for the chain heading into the second quarter. Dollar General got a strong start to the year, with both overall visits and visits per location elevated in January 2025. However, February’s inclement weather along with the comparison to last year’s leap year drove YoY visits down in February – but by March, foot traffic to the chain had mostly recovered.
By April 2025, YoY visits and visits per location were up 6.5% and 5.4%, respectively – perhaps due to pull-forward of demand ahead of tariffs, but also suggesting a strong start to Q2 2025. Indeed, the company has announced plans to open an additional 725 stores in 2025 – an ambitious goal for a company in a solid position.
Dollar General also operates pOpshelf, a smaller chain offering items at a slightly elevated price point compared to the company’s flagship Dollar General banner. And while pOpshelf will be rightsizing in 2025, with 45 store closures planned, Dollar General continues to build out this higher-priced brand concept, expanding its product offerings to reach a wider range of customers.
This investment in both the pOpshelf and Dollar General concepts suggests that the company is well-positioned to capture a wider customer base across a range of discount retail styles.
Dollar Tree, the second-largest discount retailer in the country, has experienced similar visitation patterns to Dollar General. The company, which recently announced the sale of its Family Dollar banner, saw Q1 2025 visits to the Dollar Tree banner increase by 4.8% YoY, while visits per location dipped slightly.
But, like Dollar General, Dollar Tree experienced strong monthly visit growth in April 2025, with visits and visits per location elevated year-over-year by a significant 21.2% and 16.1%, respectively, likely due in part to the pull-forward of demand but also highlighting Dollar Tree’s fundamental strength.
Dollar Tree is aiming to continue this momentum, with a goal of opening around 300 stores by the end of the year and actively expanding its “3.0 Model.” This new store format is designed to offer shoppers a more comfortable experience and includes the addition of extended freezer and refrigerator offerings – suggesting that Dollar Tree may be looking to more directly compete with Dollar General’s grocery offerings.
Discount and dollar stores definitively proved their staying power over the past few years. The segment continues to adapt to a rapidly changing economic environment and the shifting needs of consumers – whether by building out extended grocery options or offering discount products across a wider price range.
Will discount stores continue to hold onto their dominance in Q2 and beyond?
Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven retail insights.
Big Chicken's moment in the spotlight has been building for the past few years. The surge in chicken offerings – from Chili’s popular sandwich to the expansion of local and international chicken chains and McDonald’s recently launched McCrispy strips – has spurred considerable traffic in the fast-casual and quick-service dining sectors.
With the year’s midpoint quickly approaching, we took a look at some of the most popular players in the game to see how visits are performing.
Chicken is the most popular protein in America, so it’s no surprise that chicken-centric restaurants are thriving. Still, even within this favorable dining landscape, recent years have seen chains like Dave’s Hot Chicken and Raising Cane’s significantly outpace other dining concepts in terms of growth.
Visits to chicken restaurants Huey Magoo’s, Super Chix, Dave’s Hot Chicken, and Raising Cane’s showed impressive year-over-year (YoY) growth in Q1 2025. Dave’s Hot Chicken, recently acquired in a $1 billion deal, experienced the most significant YoY visit growth – 67.2% in Q4 2024 and 60.0% in Q1 2025, followed by Super Chix (26.9% and 19.7%, respectively), with Raising Cane’s and Huey Magoo’s following closely. In contrast, overall fast-casual restaurants saw much more muted growth – and quick-service visits declined slightly in both quarters.
Some of the visit growth is driven by expansions – all of the analyzed chicken chains are growing their footprint to meet growing demand. And most brands are either growing or seeing only minor declines in their average visits per location numbers – suggesting that demand is keeping up with supply.
In terms of performance, Dave’s and Raising Cane’s also saw the most year-over-year growth in average visits per location in Q1 2025, up 11.6% and 3.6%, respectively. While Huey Magoo’s and Super Chix experienced a slight slowdown in visits per location, their numbers tracked closely with those of previous years and the wider fast-casual and quick-service dining segments.
Overall, weekly visits in April generally maintained their upward trend. Although the week of April 14th saw a slight dip in visits for Huey Magoo’s and Raising Cane’s, both chains quickly returned to growth in subsequent weeks.
And once again, Dave’s Hot Chicken continued to drive the most significant visit increases, with weekly visits surging by 55.1% during the week of April 28th.
Each of the analyzed chains has its own unique draw. Huey Magoo’s fans call the chain the “Filet Mignon of Chicken,” while Dave’s Hot Chicken is known for its meticulous, chef-driven approach to fried chicken. Still, diving into the geographic segmentation data for each chain highlights a common thread uniting them: their strength in the suburbs and mid-sized cities.
In Q1 2025, all four chains saw significant shares of visitors originating from the “Suburban Periphery” and “Metro Cities” – defined by the Esri: Tapestry Segmentation dataset as commuter-oriented suburbs and mid-sized cities. However, despite these similarities across major geographic segments, visitors to these chains had their own distinctions as well. Notably, Huey Magoo’s drew 15.4% of its visitors from “Rural” areas, while only 1.9% and 4.4% of Dave’s Hot Chicken and Raising Cane’s Chicken Fingers visitors, respectively, came from those areas.
This highlights that while a significant portion of visitors to these chicken chains come from relatively similar areas, enough distinctions remain within their customer bases to allow for individual brand differentiation.
Chicken chains continue to be one of the most exciting dining categories to watch. As the chains continue to spread their wings, will visits continue to fly with them? Or will the cluck stop?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven dining insights.
Analyzing location intelligence for Saturday, May 10th (the day before Mother’s Day) and on Sunday, May 11th (Mother’s Day) can reveal how some consumers chose to celebrate the occasion.
Full-service restaurants – including breakfast-first casual dining chains such as IHOP and Waffle House – saw significant visit spikes on Mother’s Day, with traffic also rising on Saturday (almost 10% up compared to the average Saturday to date). In fact, Mother’s Day and the day before Mother’s Day were the busiest Sunday and Saturday in 2025 so far, respectively. Coffee chains also received a boost – both before Mother’s day and an even larger spike on Mother’s Day itself.
May 10th and 11th were also the most visited Saturdays and Sundays in 2025 so far at greeting card retailers – both specialized stores like Hallmark and chains with a large greeting card selection such as CVS and Walgreens. Finally, Ulta also received a boost – likely from shoppers looking for the perfect Mother’s Day gift.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
1) Retail foot traffic faces lingering pressure – making promotions more critical than ever. Financial uncertainty, tariffs, and inflation continue to weigh on discretionary spending, making well-timed, targeted holiday promotions essential to reignite demand and drive in-store traffic.
2) The retail divide appears set to widen this holiday season – Luxury and off-price apparel are both outpacing overall retail, reflecting a deepening bifurcation of consumer behavior. And this December, the affluence gap between the two categories is expected to expand further, underscoring opportunities to engage both premium and value-focused shoppers across segments.
3) Despite slower overall performance, beauty and electronics have performed well during recent retail milestones. To make the most of this momentum, advertisers should align campaigns with shifting holiday audiences – electronics toward married homeowners and beauty toward affluent suburban families.
4) Early Promotions Could Lift In-Store Traffic – Last year, early holiday campaigns helped offset a shorter shopping season and sustain strong results. With another condensed window and continued shipping disruptions, retailers who start early and emphasize in-store availability will be best positioned to capture additional visits and outperform 2024’s results.
The holiday season is fast approaching, but this year’s backdrop looks especially complex. Consumers are navigating heightened financial uncertainty, with tariffs driving up prices and disrupting supply, while inflation continues to weigh on discretionary spending.
For retailers and advertisers, the stakes are high. The holiday period remains a critical window for promotional engagement, and success will depend on understanding consumer behavior and crafting promotions that are timed, targeted, and designed to meet shoppers where they are.
We turned to foot traffic data to uncover the key trends shaping this season’s retail environment, and to identify promotional strategies likely to succeed.
Consumer activity appeared strong in most of early 2025 – except in February, when extreme weather and leap-year comparisons drove sharp year-over-year (YoY) declines. But foot traffic slowed this summer, highlighting the toll of lingering financial uncertainty and strain.
For advertisers, this underscores how pivotal seasonal promotions will be in reigniting demand. With many consumers cutting back on discretionary spending, well-timed and well-targeted campaigns will be essential to encourage shoppers to spend more freely during the holidays. These promotions don’t have to rely solely on price cuts — pop-culture collaborations and other creative product launches have also proven highly effective in driving traffic this year.
> Financial uncertainty and tighter household budgets are weighing on retail foot traffic this year – making effective holiday promotions more critical than ever.
Still, not all retail categories have been equally affected by broader economic headwinds. Some segments have experienced softer demand, signaling where advertisers may need to take a more measured, efficiency-focused approach. Others, however, have shown notable resilience – offering opportunities to double down on creative promotions that deepen engagement during the holidays.
One such segment is home furnishings, which has seen YoY traffic gains over the past 12 months, driven by the strong performance of discount chains as shoppers favor accessible décor updates over large-scale renovations. Strategic campaigns highlighting affordable refreshes and quick “holiday-ready” makeovers could give the category an additional lift in Q4, as households look to update their spaces in preparation for hosting family and friends.
But the biggest gains have been in the apparel category, where a bifurcation trend has emerged, boosting visits at both luxury and off-price retailers. The success of both segments underscores promotional strategies that can amplify momentum – steep-value discounts on one end of the spectrum, and exclusivity and quality on the other. Advertisers across retail segments can adapt this dual approach to engage both budget-driven and premium audiences effectively.
And demographic data reveals just how deeply entrenched this bifurcation has become – especially during the holiday season.
The chart below examines monthly changes in the median household incomes (HHIs) of luxury and off-price retailers’ captured markets since January 2023. Even small shifts in HHI across major retail categories can signal meaningful changes in audience composition – and these patterns tell a clear story.
In luxury apparel, where the median HHI is well above the national average of $79.6K, visitor income follows a distinct seasonal rhythm. During the early holiday shopping period, HHI remains lower in October and dips slightly in November as middle-income shoppers take advantage of early promotions to snag products that may be out of reach the rest of the year. It then rises in December as affluent consumers return to purchase gifts. Notably, luxury HHI has trended upward since 2023 – with each holiday peak higher than the last – suggesting that this December’s visitor base will be even more affluent than last year.
For advertisers, this means late-season campaigns should prioritize prestige audiences while still engaging aspirational shoppers during early holiday promotions like Black Friday.
In the off-price apparel segment, on the other hand, median HHI typically declines during the holidays – especially in December – indicating an influx of more price-sensitive shoppers. And over time, this visitor base has become even more value-driven, reinforcing the importance of promotional messaging that emphasizes unbeatable deals and savings.
Together, these patterns once again highlight the growing need for tailored strategies: premium experiences for high earners and sharp value propositions for cost-conscious consumers – a lesson that may extend well beyond these categories.
>The retail divide is expected to deepen further in December 2025, with off-price retailers drawing more value-driven shoppers and luxury brands attracting increasingly affluent consumers.
In a challenging economic environment, one might expect promotions around key retail milestones to prompt consumers to deviate from their usual habits, experimenting with new brands or categories. Yet the data shows that, for the most part, shoppers instead deepened their engagement with the retailers they already patronize – utilizing holiday promotions to buy the same products at better prices.
The graph below shows that during recent shopping milestones, the off-price and luxury categories both stood out in YoY performance – reflecting the strong momentum sustained by both segments over the past twelve months.
Still, the graph above also highlights two additional segments potentially poised for holiday success: beauty & self care and electronics.
Despite slower traffic over the past year, beauty retailers saw notable spikes around key recent promotional moments – including Black Friday, Mother’s Day, and Memorial Day. And although electronics retailers continued to face headwinds as consumers delayed big-ticket purchases – including during last year’s Black Friday – more recent milestones have seen traffic stabilize or even increase YoY.
This indicates that the right promotional environment can still effectively drive engagement in these discretionary categories, and that deal-driven behavior is likely to remain a defining theme this holiday season. In addition, as the replacement cycle begins for major electronics first purchased during the pandemic, shoppers may be especially willing to upgrade to a new TV or laptop if the right offer comes along.
But to make the most of the opportunity presented by Q4, advertisers and retailers in the beauty and electronics spaces should pay close attention to the shifting demographics of their in-store audiences during the holiday season.
For electronics retailers, married couples and homeowners become increasingly important during the peak holiday shopping period. Their share in the category’s captured market rises consistently each December, indicating that campaigns emphasizing household upgrades, family entertainment, and quality-of-life improvements may resonate most effectively in late Q4.
In contrast, beauty retailers – typically buoyed by young professionals – see their audience composition shift towards suburbia during the holidays. In December, the share of wealthy suburban families in beauty retailers’ captured markets grows meaningfully, while the share of young professionals declines. Advertisers can capitalize by highlighting premium bundles, limited-edition sets, and gifting options that speak directly to these households’ desire for premium, family-oriented products.
> Off-price and luxury retailers maintained strong performance during major retail milestones, but beauty and electronics stand out as rising opportunities for the 2025 holiday season.
> As holiday demographics shift during the holiday season – with electronics drawing more married homeowners and beauty attracting wealthier suburban families – campaigns that reflect these audiences’ lifestyles and priorities will resonate most.
Timing is also a decisive factor in retailer and advertiser success during the holiday season.
Traditionally, the “core” holiday retail period begins with Black Friday and continues until Christmas Eve. But in 2024, there was one fewer week between these two milestones compared to the previous year. And to compensate, many retailers launched an “early” holiday season, rolling out promotions in October and early November to maximize consumer engagement.
As the graph below shows, the shorter “core” season of 2024 unsurprisingly drew less in-store traffic across retail categories than the longer period the year before. Yet by embracing early promotions, retailers offset much of this shortfall, leading to overall holiday season results that, in many cases, matched or even exceeded 2023’s performance.
Looking ahead, 2025 once again brings a compressed “core” shopping window. And with shipping disruptions still influenced by shifting tariff regulations, more consumers may turn to brick-and-mortar stores earlier in the season to ensure timely purchases – further supporting offline traffic.
If retailers and advertisers double down on early-season engagement while continuing to drive momentum through the “core” weeks, YoY traffic for the 2025 holiday season could deliver even bigger overall gains than those seen in 2024.
> Last year, early holiday promotions helped offset a shorter core holiday season.
> In 2025, retail and advertising professionals are again faced with a relatively short core shopping season. And aware of the condensed timeline and shipping disruptions, more shoppers may opt for early in-store purchases to avoid the risk of delayed deliveries.
This holiday season will reward advertisers and retailers who recognize the growing retail divide and tailor their messaging to the shoppers most likely to visit during the holidays – whether married homeowners on the hunt for electronics or affluent suburban families seeking beauty products. As in 2024, acting early to offset a shorter core shopping period will be essential to capturing demand. And those who combine sharp timing with audience insight will be best positioned to turn a complex season into a strong finish.
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1) Value Wins in 2025: Discount & Dollar Stores and Off-Price Apparel are outperforming as consumers prioritize value and the “treasure-hunt” experience.
2) Small Splurges Over Big Projects: Clothing and Home Furnishing traffic remains strong as shoppers favor accessible wardrobe updates and decor refreshes instead of major renovations.
3) Big-Ticket Weakness: Electronics and Home Improvement visits continue to lag, reflecting a continued deferment of larger purchases.
4) Bifurcation in Apparel: Visits to off-price and luxury segments are growing, while general apparel, athleisure, and department stores face ongoing pressures from consumer trade-downs.
5) Income Dynamics Shape Apparel: Higher-income shoppers sustain luxury and athleisure, while off-price is driving traffic from more lower-income consumers.
6) Beauty Normalizes but Stays Relevant: After a pandemic-driven surge, YoY declines likely indicate that beauty visits are stabilizing; shorter trips are giving way to longer visits as retailers deploy new tech and immersive experiences.
Economic headwinds, including tariffs and higher everyday costs, are limiting discretionary budgets and prompting consumers to make more selective choices about where they spend. But despite these pressures, foot traffic to several discretionary retail categories continues to thrive year-over-year (YoY).
Of the discretionary categories analyzed, fitness and apparel had the strongest year-over-year traffic trends – likely thanks to consumers finding perceived value in these segments.
Fitness and apparel (boosted by off-price) appeal to value-driven, experience seeking consumers – fitness thanks to its membership model of unlimited visits for an often low fee, and off-price with its discount prices and treasure-hunt dynamic. Both categories may also be riding a cultural wave tied to the growing use of GLP-1s, as more consumers pursue fitness goals and refresh their wardrobes to match changing lifestyles and sizes.
Big-ticket categories, including electronics, also faced significant challenges, as tighter consumer budgets hamper growth in the space. Traffic to home improvement retailers also generally declined, as lagging home sales and consumers putting off costly renovations likely contributed to the softness in the space.
But home furnishing visits pulled ahead in July and August 2025 – benefitting from strong performances at discount chains such as HomeGoods – suggesting that consumers are directing their home-oriented spending towards more accessible decor.
The beauty sector – typically a resilient "affordable luxury" category – also experienced declines in recent months. The slowdown can be partially attributed to stabilization following several years of intense growth, but it may also mean that consumers are simplifying their beauty routines or shifting their beauty buying online.
> Traffic to fitness and apparel chains – led by off-price – continued to grow YoY in 2025, as value and experiences continue to draw consumers.
> Consumers are shopping for accessible home decor upgrades to refresh their space rather than undertaking major renovations.
> Shoppers are holding off on big-ticket purchases, leading to YoY declines in the electronics and home improvement categories.
> Beauty has experienced softening traffic trends as the sector stabilizes following its recent years of hypergrowth as shoppers simplify routines and shift some of their spending online.
After two years of visit declines, the Home Furnishings category rebounded in 2025, with visits up 4.9% YoY between January and August. By contrast, Home Improvement continued its multi-year downward trend, though the pace of decline appears to have slowed.
So what’s fueling Home Furnishings’ resurgence while Home Improvement visits remain soft? Probably a combination of factors, including a more affluent shopper base and a product mix that includes a variety of lower-ticket items.
On the audience side, this category draws a much larger share of visits from suburban and urban areas, with a median household income well above that of home improvement shoppers. The differences are especially pronounced when analyzing the audience in their captured markets – indicating that the gap stems not just from store locations, but from meaningful differences in the types of consumers each category attracts.
Home improvement's larger share of rural visits is not accidental – home improvement leaders have been intentionally expanding into smaller markets for a while. But while betting on rural markets is likely to pay off down the line, home improvement may continue to face headwinds in the near future as its rural shopper base grapples with fewer discretionary dollars.
On the merchandise side, home improvement chains cater to larger renovations and higher-cost projects – and have likely been impacted by the slowdown in larger-ticket purchases which is also impacting the electronics space. Meanwhile, home furnishing chains carry a large assortment of lower-ticket items, including home decor, accessories, and tableware.
Consumers are still spending more time at home now than they were pre-COVID, and investing in comfortable living spaces is more important than ever. And although many high-income consumers are also tightening their belts, upgrading tableware or even a piece of furniture is still much cheaper than undertaking a renovation – which could explain the differences in traffic trends.
Traditional apparel, mid-tier department stores, and activewear chains all experienced similar levels of YoY traffic declines in 2025 YTD, as shown in the graph above. But analyzing traffic data from 2021 shows that each segment's dip is part of a trajectory unique to that segment.
Traffic to mid-tier department stores has been trending downward since 2021, a shift tied not only to macroeconomic headwinds but also to structural changes in the sector. The pandemic accelerated e-commerce adoption, hitting department stores particularly hard as consumers seeking one-stop shopping and broad assortments increasingly turned to the convenience of online channels.
Traffic to traditional apparel chains has also not fully recovered from the pandemic, but the segment did consistently outperform mid-tier department stores and luxury retailers between 2021 and 2024. But in H1 2025, the dynamic with luxury shifted, so that traffic trends at luxury apparel retailers are now stronger than at traditional apparel both YoY and compared to Q1 2019. This highlights the current bifurcation of consumer spending also in the apparel space, as luxury and off-price segments outperform mid-market chains.
In contrast, the activewear & athleisure category continues to outperform its pre-pandemic baseline, despite experiencing a slight YoY softening in 2025 as consumers tighten their budgets. The category has capitalized on post-lockdown lifestyle shifts, and comfort-driven wardrobes that blur the line between work, fitness, and leisure remain entrenched consumer staples several years on.
The two segments with the highest YoY growth – off-price and luxury – are at the two ends of the spectrum in terms of household income levels, highlighting the bifurcation that has characterized much of the retail space in 2025. And luxury and off-price are also benefiting from larger consumer trends that are boosting performance at both premium and value-focused retailers.
In-store traffic behavior reveals that these two segments enjoy the longest average dwell times in the apparel category, with an average visit to a luxury or off-price retailer lasting 39.2 and 41.3 minutes, respectively. This suggests that consumers are drawn to the experiential aspect of both segments – treasure hunting at off-price chains or indulging in a sense of prestige at a luxury retailer. Together, these patterns highlight that – despite appealing to different consumer groups – both ends of the market are thriving by offering shopping experiences that foster longer engagement.
> Off-price and luxury segments are outperforming, while general apparel, athleisure, and department store visits lag YoY under tariff pressures and consumer trade-downs.
> Looking over the longer term reveals that athleisure is still far ahead of its pre-pandemic baseline – even if YoY demand has softened.
> Luxury and off-price both are thriving by offering shopping experiences that foster longer engagement.
The beauty sector has long benefitted from the “lipstick effect” — the tendency for consumers to indulge in small luxuries even when discretionary spending is constrained. And while the beauty category’s softening in today’s cautious spending environment could suggest that this effect has weakened, a longer view of the data tells a more nuanced story.
Beauty visits grew significantly between 2021 and 2024, fueled by a confluence of factors including post-pandemic “revenge shopping,” demand for bolder looks as consumers returned to social life, and new store openings and retail partnerships. Against that backdrop, recent YoY traffic dips are likely a sign of stabilization rather than true declines. Social commerce, and minimalist skincare routines may be moderating in-store traffic, but shoppers are still engaged, even as they blend online and offline shopping or seek out lower-cost alternatives to maximize value.
Analysis of average visit duration for three leading beauty chains – Ulta Beauty, Bath & Body Works, and Sally Beauty Supply – highlights the shifting role but continued relevance of physical stores in the space.
Average visit duration decreased post-pandemic – likely due to more purposeful trips and increased online product discovery. But that trend began to reverse in H1 2025, signaling the changing role of physical stores. Enhanced tech for in-store product exploration and rich experiences may be helping drive deeper engagement, underscoring beauty retail’s staying power even in a more measured spending environment.
Bottom Line:
> Beauty’s slight YoY visit declines point to a period of normalization following a post-pandemic boom, while longer-term trends show the category remains stronger than pre-pandemic levels.
> Visits grew shorter post-pandemic, driven by more purposeful trips and increased online product discovery – but dwell time is now lengthening again, signaling renewed in-store engagement driven by tech-enabled discovery and immersive experiences.
Foot traffic data highlight major differences in the recent performance of various discretionary apparel categories. Off-price, fitness, and home furnishings are pulling ahead, well-positioned to keep capitalizing on shifting priorities. Luxury also remains resilient, likely thanks to its higher-income visitor base.
At the same time, beauty’s normalization and the slowdown in mid-tier apparel, electronics, and home improvement show that caution persists across discretionary budgets. Moving forward, retailers that align with consumers’ demand for value, accessible upgrades, and immersive experiences may be best placed to thrive in this era of selective spending.
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1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery formats grew year-over-year in Q2 2025, with traditional grocers posting their first rebound since early 2024.
2) Value grocers slow: After leading during the 2022–24 trade-down wave, value grocer growth has decelerated as that shift matures.
3) Fresh formats surge: Now the fastest-growing segment, fueled by affluent shoppers seeking health, wellness, and convenience.
4) Bifurcation widens: Growth concentrated at both the low-income (value) and high-income (fresh) ends, highlighting polarized spending.
5) Shopping missions diverge: Short trips are rising, supporting fresh formats, while traditional grocers retain loyal stock-up customers and value chains capture fill-in trips through private labels.
6) Traditional grocers adapt: H-E-B and Harris Teeter outperformed by tailoring strategies to their core geographies and demographics.Bifurcation of Consumer Spending Help Fresh Format Lead Grocery Growth
Grocery traffic across all four major categories – value grocers, fresh format, traditional grocery, ethnic grocers – was up year over year in Q2 2025 as shoppers continue to engage with a wide range of grocery formats. Traditional grocery posted its first YoY traffic increase since Q1 2024, while ethnic grocers maintained their steady pattern of modest but consistent gains.
Value grocers, which dominated growth through most of 2024 as shoppers prioritized affordability, continued to expand but have now ceded leadership to fresh-format grocers. Rising food costs between 2022 and 2024 drove many consumers to chains like Aldi and Lidl, but much of this “trade-down” movement has already occurred. Although price sensitivity still shapes consumer choices – keeping the value segment on an upward trajectory – its growth momentum has slowed, making it less of a driver for the overall sector.
Fresh-format grocers have now taken the lead, posting the strongest YoY traffic gains of any category in 2025. This segment, anchored by players like Sprouts, appeals to the highest-income households of the four categories, signaling a growing influence of affluent shoppers on the competitive grocery landscape. Despite accounting for just 7.0% of total grocery visits in H1 2025, the segment’s rapid gains point to a broader shift: premium brands emphasizing health and wellness are emerging as the primary engine of growth in the grocery sector.
The fact that value grocers and fresh-format grocers – segments with the lowest and highest median household incomes among their customer bases – are the two categories driving the most growth underscores how the bifurcation of consumer spending is playing out in the grocery space as well. On one end, price-sensitive shoppers continue to seek out affordable options, while on the other, affluent consumers are fueling demand for premium, health-oriented formats. This dual-track growth pattern highlights how widening economic divides are reshaping competitive dynamics in grocery retail.
1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery categories posted YoY traffic gains in Q2 2025.
2) Traditional grocery rebound: First YoY increase since Q1 2024.
3) Ethnic grocers: Continued steady but modest upward trend.
4) Value grocers: Still growing, but slowing after most trade-down activity already occurred (2022–24).
5) Fresh formats: Now the fastest-growing segment, driven by affluent shoppers and interest in health & wellness.
6) Market shift: Premium, health-oriented brands are becoming the new growth driver in grocery.
7) Bifurcation of spending: Growth at both value and fresh-format grocers highlights a polarization in consumer spending patterns that is reshaping grocery competition.
Over the past two years, short grocery trips (under 10 minutes) have grown far more quickly than longer visits. While they still make up less than one-quarter of all U.S. grocery trips, their steady expansion suggests this behavioral shift is here to stay and that its full impact on the industry has yet to be realized.
One format particularly aligned with this trend is the fresh-format grocer, where average dwell times are shorter than in other categories. Yet despite benefiting from the rise of convenience-driven shopping, fresh formats attract the smallest share of loyal visitors (4+ times per month). This indicates they are rarely used for a primary weekly shop. Instead, they capture supplemental trips from consumers looking for specific needs – unique items, high-quality produce, or a prepared meal – who also value the ability to get in and out quickly.
In contrast, leading traditional grocers like H-E-B and Kroger thrive on a classic supermarket model built around frequent, comprehensive shopping trips. With the highest share of loyal visitors (38.5% and 27.6% respectively), they command a reliable customer base coming for full grocery runs and taking time to fill their carts.
Value grocers follow a different, but equally effective playbook. Positioned as primary “fill-in” stores, they sit between traditional and fresh formats in both dwell time and visit frequency. Many rely on limited assortments and a heavy emphasis on private-label goods, encouraging shoppers to build larger baskets around basics and store brands. Still, the data suggests consumers reserve their main grocery hauls for traditional supermarkets with broader selections, while using value grocers to stretch budgets and stock up on essentials.
1) Short trips surge: Under-10-minute visits have grown fastest, signaling a lasting behavioral shift.
2) Fresh formats thrive on convenience: Small footprints, prepared foods, and specialty items align with quick missions.
3) Traditional grocers retain loyalty: Traditional grocers such as H-E-B and Kroger attract frequent, comprehensive stock-up trips.
4) Value grocers fill the middle ground: Limited assortments and private label drive larger baskets, but main hauls remain with traditional supermarkets.
5) Fresh formats as supplements: Fresh format grocers such as The Fresh Market capture quick, specialized trips rather than weekly shops.
While broad market trends favor value and fresh-format grocers, certain traditional grocers are proving that a tailored strategy is a powerful tool for success. In the first half of 2025, H-E-B and Harris Teeter significantly outperformed their category's modest 0.6% average year-over-year visit growth, posting impressive gains of 5.6% and 2.8%, respectively. Their success demonstrates that even in a polarizing environment, there is ample room for traditional formats to thrive by deeply understanding and catering to a specific target audience.
These two brands achieve their success with distinctly different, yet equally focused, demographic strategies. H-E-B, a Texas powerhouse, leans heavily into major metropolitan areas like Austin and San Antonio. This urban focus is clear, with 32.6% of its visitors coming from urban centers and their peripheries, far above the category average. Conversely, Harris Teeter has cultivated a strong following in suburban and satellite cities in the South Atlantic region, drawing a massive 78.3% of its traffic from these areas. This deliberate targeting shows that knowing your customer's geography and lifestyle remains a winning formula for growth.
1) Traditional grocers can still be competitive: H-E-B (+5.6% YoY) and Harris Teeter (+2.8% YoY) outpaced the category average of +0.6% in H1 2025.
2) H-E-B’s strategy: Strong urban focus, with 32.6% of traffic from major metro areas like Austin and San Antonio.
3) Harris Teeter’s strategy: Suburban and satellite city focus, with 78.3% of traffic from South Atlantic suburbs.
