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The coffee space has become increasingly competitive in recent years. And while traffic to the segment is up, the growth of small and medium sized chains may be coming at the expense of Starbucks. Visits to the reigning coffee giant were down slightly (0.1%) YoY in Q2 2025 while average visits per location declined 4.2% in the same period.
Still, these trends mark an improvement compared to last quarter, when YoY visits and average visits per venue were down 0.9% and 5.4%, respectively – suggesting that the company's "Back to Starbucks" strategy and recent menu innovations are beginning to drive a turnaround.
Meanwhile, Dunkin' – the second-largest coffee chain in the country – is seeing modest growth, with overall visits and average visits per venue up 1.7% and 0.3% YoY, respectively, in Q2 2025. Like Starbucks, Dunkin' showed improvement in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025 – perhaps an early sign of strengthening consumer confidence.
But while broader market forces may have helped, Dunkin's Q2 2025 turnaround may also be attributed to the chain's promotional efforts – including a new ad campaign to promote the chain's $6 Meal Deals. As value continues to drive consumer decision-making, Dunkin's emphasis on affordable bundles positions it well to maintain its visit share despite the growing competition in the space.
Dutch Bros, one of the fastest growing coffee brands in recent years, maintained its momentum in Q2 2025, as coffee chains betting on small-format, largely drive-thru locations – including 7Brew, PJ's Coffee, Biggby, and Foxtail – continue to resonate with consumers.
Overall visits to the Oregon-based chain grew 13.8% YoY alongside a 0.8% increase in average visits per venue – indicating that the chain's ongoing expansion is not cannibalizing traffic from existing venues. This bodes well for the brand as it continues its aggressive expansion – 2,029 stores by 2029.
As we look to the second half of 2025, the coffee sector will be characterized by the distinct strategies of its key players. Dutch Bros' aggressive expansion will continue to challenge the incumbents on a local level, while Dunkin's focus on value will likely remain a key advantage with budget-conscious consumers. The ultimate test will be for Starbucks, as the industry leader's ability to translate its strategic innovations into sustained visit growth will determine its capacity to defend its market share.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Shake Shack traffic increased an impressive 13.7% year-over-year (YoY) in Q2 2025 while average visits per venue held relatively steady at -1.7% – indicating that the chain's aggressive expansion strategy is capturing new market share without cannibalizing existing locations.
Meanwhile, although Q2 2025 visits to Wingstop were up 3.6%, the chain's average visits per venue declined 6.3% – which may suggest that discretionary dining brands serving lower-income consumers may be experiencing pressure from tightening household budgets.
Analyzing trade area demographic data reveals that Wingstop's captured market has a median household income of $69.5K – significantly lower than Shake Shack's $97.0K. Wingstop's trade area also includes a much higher proportion of households with children.
Wingstop attracts families with tighter budgets who must stretch their dining dollars further, which likely contributed to the decline in average visits per venue during this period of economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, Shake Shack's appeals to higher-income consumers with more discretionary spending power could explain the chain's impressive visit strength despite the ongoing headwinds.
Looking at the change in visit frequency compared to 2024 also suggests that Wingstop is feeling the impact of its visitors' tighter budgets.
Wingstop still maintains a significant advantage in customer loyalty, with 16.8% to 18.1% repeat monthly visitors in H1 2025 compared to Shake Shack's 10.5% to 11.4%. But comparing these numbers to 2024 reveals that Wingstop's share of repeat visitors has declined slightly since 2024, while Shake Shack has posted modest monthly gains throughout H1 2025.
This shift suggests that budget-conscious families may be reducing their regular Wingstop visits to save money, while Shake Shack's strategic expansion is bringing locations closer to customers which could be driving increased repeat visitation.
Despite facing economic headwinds, Wingstop's continued positive visit growth and superior customer loyalty metrics demonstrate the brand's strong fundamentals and deep connection with its core family demographic.
As economic conditions stabilize, Wingstop's established customer base and proven appeal to budget-conscious families positions the chain for a strong rebound, particularly given that families with children represent a large and resilient market segment that will likely return to regular dining patterns when household budgets recover.
Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven dining insights.
Eyewear chain Warby Parker continues to be a disruptor. The glasses chain got its start online and made the pivot to brick-and-mortar in 2013. And while many retailers who made that move have since shifted to other retail formats, Warby Parker is pressing on – the brand has plans to open 45 new locations in 2025 alone and is partnering with Target to open store-in-stores in H2 2025.
The chain's ongoing expansion drove year-over-year (YoY) visit increases for all months of 2025 so far. Average visits per location showed more variance – average visits per venue declined 2.7% YoY in Q2 2025 – perhaps reflecting the brand's deliberate focus on market penetration and its use of stores as strategic omnichannel touchpoints rather than purely traffic-dependent locations.
Like Warby Parker, footwear brand Allbirds began online before pivoting to physical retail. But Allbirds is now going in a different direction and shrinking rather than expanding its footprint. In March 2024, the company made the strategic decision to shutter about one-third of its store fleet – and the result has been impressive. While overall visits declined YoY by -12.5% in Q2 2025, visits per location surged, increasing by 18.2% in the same period.
Monthly visits followed a similar pattern, with overall visits generally lower than they were in 2024 while visits per location were largely positive – and looking at visits since the beginning of 2025 shows that the YoY overall visit gap has also been narrowing. Visits in January 2025 were 37.1% lower than they were in January 2024, but by June 2025 that visit gap had narrowed to just 15.1%. Meanwhile, average visits per location were elevated by 13.2% YoY in June 2025. This impressive shift highlights that demand for in-store shopping at Allbirds is strong, and the decision to focus on its highest-performing stores has had the intended effect.
Warby Parker and Allbirds have taken divergent approaches to their brick-and-mortar strategy, and both chains are managing to keep things moving forward.
What will H2 look like for these brands? Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven retail insights.
Movie theater visits were up year-over-year in Q2 2025, but traffic generally remains significantly below 2019 levels – with the exception of Cinemark, where visits are almost on par with pre-pandemic levels. We analyzed the data to understand how movie-going behavior has changed since COVID and why Cinemark is staying ahead of the curve.
Movie theater traffic jumped year-over-year (YoY) in Q2 2025 thanks to the release of several successful blockbusters, including A Minecraft Movie, Sinners, Lilo & Stitch, and Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning.
Still, baseline movie theater attendance remains significantly lower than it was pre-pandemic. And although YoY trends for AMC, Regal, and Cinemark were relatively consistent, comparing these chains' recent visit trends to pre-pandemic traffic reveals major differences in long-term performance.
Between July 2024 and June 2025, visits to the two largest chains – AMC and Regal – were 33.2% and 40.0% lower, respectively, than they were between July 2018 to June 2019. The visits per location gap was slightly narrower – due to rightsizing efforts that consolidated traffic into fewer movie theaters – but the data still indicates that AMC and Regal theaters are generally emptier than they were in 2018-2019.
But bucking the trend is Cinemark, which saw traffic to its flagship Cinemark brand dip just 2.6% compared to pre-COVID, while average visits per location were relatively stable at -0.8%. Thanks to this impressive recovery, Cinemark has significantly strengthened its position in the wider movie theater landscape.
A deeper look at the data confirms Cinemark's success in attracting moviegoers. Cinemark theaters average more visits both per location and per square foot, indicating that their higher visit numbers stem from fuller theaters rather than larger venues or more locations.
But just because Cinemark's visit numbers are relatively aligned with 2018-2019 traffic levels does not mean that the chain has not been impacted by the shift in post-COVID movie-going behavior.
Comparing monthly visits between July 2018-June 2019 and July 2024-June 2025 reveals increased traffic volatility at all three chains, with higher peaks and deeper valleys compared to average monthly baselines. This volatility likely stems from blockbusters playing a more central role in driving movie visits. Fewer consumers now go to movies casually – instead, they save their limited movie budgets for major releases.
The data also shows that all three chains have seen a relative drop in visits to matinee screenings (before 5 PM) along with a relative increase in late-night visits (9 PM to 1 AM) – which could also be consistent with a more intentional and less casual movie-going pattern.
And Cinemark hasn't been immune to these changes. The chain has also experienced similar monthly visit volatility, fewer matinee visits, and more late-night visits – matching the patterns seen at AMC and Regal.
So what is driving Cinemark's success? Some of the answer may lie in its strategic focus on less affluent family audiences. Compared to AMC and Regal, Cinemark attracts visitors from areas with lower median household incomes and higher concentrations of families – a positioning the chain seems to be deliberately cultivating.
Cinemark has built an ecosystem designed for budget-conscious families: their Movie Club membership includes monthly rollover ticket credits and concession discounts, while their Summer Movie Clubhouse offers discounted family packages. Select locations also feature Camp Cinemark auditoriums – screening rooms specifically designed to be child-friendly.
This strategy creates a virtuous cycle. While Cinemark's lower-income audience has tighter entertainment budgets, they're also less likely to have premium home theater setups that compete with the theatrical experience.
When these families do decide to splurge on entertainment, Cinemark's value-oriented approach and family-friendly amenities make it the logical choice – turning occasional visits into a more loyal customer base that sustains traffic even during industry-wide downturns.
While most movie theater chains continue to struggle with significantly lower attendance compared to pre-pandemic levels, the strong YoY performance suggests that the movie theater recovery story is still being written. Cinemark's success demonstrates that chains willing to adapt their strategies to serve underserved audiences can not only survive but thrive in the transformed post-pandemic entertainment landscape.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Major retailers held promotional events around Amazon's Prime Day sales event. How did the promotional events impact retail foot traffic? And what does the data reveal about the state of consumers going into the second half of 2025?
Comparing daily visits to major retailers during their July campaigns against same-day YTD averages (e.g., Sunday July 6th traffic versus average Sunday visits in 2025) reveals that sales primarily boosted weekday traffic. Visits increased Monday through Friday during the promotional periods, but every retailer that extended its campaign to Saturday – typically the busiest in-store shopping day – experienced traffic declines compared to YTD Saturday averages.
Individual retailer analysis shows Best Buy achieved the strongest response, with visits increasing 13.2% to 21.9% between July 7th and 11th compared to same-day YTD averages, and the final day (Sunday July 13th) posting a 7.2% increase. Conversely, Dollar General saw the weakest performance – only three of seven promotional days generated visit increases, all remaining in low single digits.
This pattern suggests consumers leveraged sales for big-ticket purchases at discounts but didn't use the opportunity to stock up on lower-priced items.
Comparing average daily visits during 2024 and 2025 July campaigns shows generally lower in-store traffic this year. Timing likely played a role – except for Best Buy, all analyzed retailers ran their 2024 campaigns before Amazon Prime Day, while this year all five overlapped with Amazon's event. This means that, unlike in 2024, Target, Walmart, Kohl's, and Dollar General directly competed with Amazon Prime Day in 2025, potentially driving the in-store traffic decline.
This calendar shift makes Walmart's performance particularly noteworthy. Average daily visits during "Walmart Deals" increased 8.9% compared to last year – despite facing direct Amazon competition for the first time.
Walmart's strength may stem from its recent "Who Knew?" advertising campaign, which may have kept the retailer top-of-mind for many customers during this period of intense retail competition.
The YoY visit growth during July campaigns represents another milestone in the company's turnaround and brand refresh, demonstrating the legacy retailer's continued relevance in today's competitive retail landscape.
The data reveals that consumers approached July 2025 promotional events with strategic intent, focusing on high-value purchases during convenient weekday shopping windows rather than impulse buying across all categories.
Walmart's standout performance amid increased competition suggests that strong brand messaging and strategic positioning can overcome market headwinds, providing optimism for retailers heading into the second half of 2025.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
McDonald's recent re-introduction of the snack wrap joins the recent wave of nostalgia-driven menu innovations – and initial data suggests that the fan-favorite is already driving up visits to the chain. On July 10th – the day of the launch – McDonald's traffic nationwide was up 15.0% compared to the 2025 YTD daily average and 11.4% higher than the YTD Thursday average, and visits remained high on Friday and Saturday as well.
The Snack Wrap's return comes at a critical time for McDonald's, as the chain continues to lean on menu innovations to turn around its recent traffic plateau plateau and sales dips.
Will the initial excitement translate into a sustained visit hike?
Visit placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven dining analysis.
1) Retail foot traffic faces lingering pressure – making promotions more critical than ever. Financial uncertainty, tariffs, and inflation continue to weigh on discretionary spending, making well-timed, targeted holiday promotions essential to reignite demand and drive in-store traffic.
2) The retail divide appears set to widen this holiday season – Luxury and off-price apparel are both outpacing overall retail, reflecting a deepening bifurcation of consumer behavior. And this December, the affluence gap between the two categories is expected to expand further, underscoring opportunities to engage both premium and value-focused shoppers across segments.
3) Despite slower overall performance, beauty and electronics have performed well during recent retail milestones. To make the most of this momentum, advertisers should align campaigns with shifting holiday audiences – electronics toward married homeowners and beauty toward affluent suburban families.
4) Early Promotions Could Lift In-Store Traffic – Last year, early holiday campaigns helped offset a shorter shopping season and sustain strong results. With another condensed window and continued shipping disruptions, retailers who start early and emphasize in-store availability will be best positioned to capture additional visits and outperform 2024’s results.
The holiday season is fast approaching, but this year’s backdrop looks especially complex. Consumers are navigating heightened financial uncertainty, with tariffs driving up prices and disrupting supply, while inflation continues to weigh on discretionary spending.
For retailers and advertisers, the stakes are high. The holiday period remains a critical window for promotional engagement, and success will depend on understanding consumer behavior and crafting promotions that are timed, targeted, and designed to meet shoppers where they are.
We turned to foot traffic data to uncover the key trends shaping this season’s retail environment, and to identify promotional strategies likely to succeed.
Consumer activity appeared strong in most of early 2025 – except in February, when extreme weather and leap-year comparisons drove sharp year-over-year (YoY) declines. But foot traffic slowed this summer, highlighting the toll of lingering financial uncertainty and strain.
For advertisers, this underscores how pivotal seasonal promotions will be in reigniting demand. With many consumers cutting back on discretionary spending, well-timed and well-targeted campaigns will be essential to encourage shoppers to spend more freely during the holidays. These promotions don’t have to rely solely on price cuts — pop-culture collaborations and other creative product launches have also proven highly effective in driving traffic this year.
> Financial uncertainty and tighter household budgets are weighing on retail foot traffic this year – making effective holiday promotions more critical than ever.
Still, not all retail categories have been equally affected by broader economic headwinds. Some segments have experienced softer demand, signaling where advertisers may need to take a more measured, efficiency-focused approach. Others, however, have shown notable resilience – offering opportunities to double down on creative promotions that deepen engagement during the holidays.
One such segment is home furnishings, which has seen YoY traffic gains over the past 12 months, driven by the strong performance of discount chains as shoppers favor accessible décor updates over large-scale renovations. Strategic campaigns highlighting affordable refreshes and quick “holiday-ready” makeovers could give the category an additional lift in Q4, as households look to update their spaces in preparation for hosting family and friends.
But the biggest gains have been in the apparel category, where a bifurcation trend has emerged, boosting visits at both luxury and off-price retailers. The success of both segments underscores promotional strategies that can amplify momentum – steep-value discounts on one end of the spectrum, and exclusivity and quality on the other. Advertisers across retail segments can adapt this dual approach to engage both budget-driven and premium audiences effectively.
And demographic data reveals just how deeply entrenched this bifurcation has become – especially during the holiday season.
The chart below examines monthly changes in the median household incomes (HHIs) of luxury and off-price retailers’ captured markets since January 2023. Even small shifts in HHI across major retail categories can signal meaningful changes in audience composition – and these patterns tell a clear story.
In luxury apparel, where the median HHI is well above the national average of $79.6K, visitor income follows a distinct seasonal rhythm. During the early holiday shopping period, HHI remains lower in October and dips slightly in November as middle-income shoppers take advantage of early promotions to snag products that may be out of reach the rest of the year. It then rises in December as affluent consumers return to purchase gifts. Notably, luxury HHI has trended upward since 2023 – with each holiday peak higher than the last – suggesting that this December’s visitor base will be even more affluent than last year.
For advertisers, this means late-season campaigns should prioritize prestige audiences while still engaging aspirational shoppers during early holiday promotions like Black Friday.
In the off-price apparel segment, on the other hand, median HHI typically declines during the holidays – especially in December – indicating an influx of more price-sensitive shoppers. And over time, this visitor base has become even more value-driven, reinforcing the importance of promotional messaging that emphasizes unbeatable deals and savings.
Together, these patterns once again highlight the growing need for tailored strategies: premium experiences for high earners and sharp value propositions for cost-conscious consumers – a lesson that may extend well beyond these categories.
>The retail divide is expected to deepen further in December 2025, with off-price retailers drawing more value-driven shoppers and luxury brands attracting increasingly affluent consumers.
In a challenging economic environment, one might expect promotions around key retail milestones to prompt consumers to deviate from their usual habits, experimenting with new brands or categories. Yet the data shows that, for the most part, shoppers instead deepened their engagement with the retailers they already patronize – utilizing holiday promotions to buy the same products at better prices.
The graph below shows that during recent shopping milestones, the off-price and luxury categories both stood out in YoY performance – reflecting the strong momentum sustained by both segments over the past twelve months.
Still, the graph above also highlights two additional segments potentially poised for holiday success: beauty & self care and electronics.
Despite slower traffic over the past year, beauty retailers saw notable spikes around key recent promotional moments – including Black Friday, Mother’s Day, and Memorial Day. And although electronics retailers continued to face headwinds as consumers delayed big-ticket purchases – including during last year’s Black Friday – more recent milestones have seen traffic stabilize or even increase YoY.
This indicates that the right promotional environment can still effectively drive engagement in these discretionary categories, and that deal-driven behavior is likely to remain a defining theme this holiday season. In addition, as the replacement cycle begins for major electronics first purchased during the pandemic, shoppers may be especially willing to upgrade to a new TV or laptop if the right offer comes along.
But to make the most of the opportunity presented by Q4, advertisers and retailers in the beauty and electronics spaces should pay close attention to the shifting demographics of their in-store audiences during the holiday season.
For electronics retailers, married couples and homeowners become increasingly important during the peak holiday shopping period. Their share in the category’s captured market rises consistently each December, indicating that campaigns emphasizing household upgrades, family entertainment, and quality-of-life improvements may resonate most effectively in late Q4.
In contrast, beauty retailers – typically buoyed by young professionals – see their audience composition shift towards suburbia during the holidays. In December, the share of wealthy suburban families in beauty retailers’ captured markets grows meaningfully, while the share of young professionals declines. Advertisers can capitalize by highlighting premium bundles, limited-edition sets, and gifting options that speak directly to these households’ desire for premium, family-oriented products.
> Off-price and luxury retailers maintained strong performance during major retail milestones, but beauty and electronics stand out as rising opportunities for the 2025 holiday season.
> As holiday demographics shift during the holiday season – with electronics drawing more married homeowners and beauty attracting wealthier suburban families – campaigns that reflect these audiences’ lifestyles and priorities will resonate most.
Timing is also a decisive factor in retailer and advertiser success during the holiday season.
Traditionally, the “core” holiday retail period begins with Black Friday and continues until Christmas Eve. But in 2024, there was one fewer week between these two milestones compared to the previous year. And to compensate, many retailers launched an “early” holiday season, rolling out promotions in October and early November to maximize consumer engagement.
As the graph below shows, the shorter “core” season of 2024 unsurprisingly drew less in-store traffic across retail categories than the longer period the year before. Yet by embracing early promotions, retailers offset much of this shortfall, leading to overall holiday season results that, in many cases, matched or even exceeded 2023’s performance.
Looking ahead, 2025 once again brings a compressed “core” shopping window. And with shipping disruptions still influenced by shifting tariff regulations, more consumers may turn to brick-and-mortar stores earlier in the season to ensure timely purchases – further supporting offline traffic.
If retailers and advertisers double down on early-season engagement while continuing to drive momentum through the “core” weeks, YoY traffic for the 2025 holiday season could deliver even bigger overall gains than those seen in 2024.
> Last year, early holiday promotions helped offset a shorter core holiday season.
> In 2025, retail and advertising professionals are again faced with a relatively short core shopping season. And aware of the condensed timeline and shipping disruptions, more shoppers may opt for early in-store purchases to avoid the risk of delayed deliveries.
This holiday season will reward advertisers and retailers who recognize the growing retail divide and tailor their messaging to the shoppers most likely to visit during the holidays – whether married homeowners on the hunt for electronics or affluent suburban families seeking beauty products. As in 2024, acting early to offset a shorter core shopping period will be essential to capturing demand. And those who combine sharp timing with audience insight will be best positioned to turn a complex season into a strong finish.
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1) Value Wins in 2025: Discount & Dollar Stores and Off-Price Apparel are outperforming as consumers prioritize value and the “treasure-hunt” experience.
2) Small Splurges Over Big Projects: Clothing and Home Furnishing traffic remains strong as shoppers favor accessible wardrobe updates and decor refreshes instead of major renovations.
3) Big-Ticket Weakness: Electronics and Home Improvement visits continue to lag, reflecting a continued deferment of larger purchases.
4) Bifurcation in Apparel: Visits to off-price and luxury segments are growing, while general apparel, athleisure, and department stores face ongoing pressures from consumer trade-downs.
5) Income Dynamics Shape Apparel: Higher-income shoppers sustain luxury and athleisure, while off-price is driving traffic from more lower-income consumers.
6) Beauty Normalizes but Stays Relevant: After a pandemic-driven surge, YoY declines likely indicate that beauty visits are stabilizing; shorter trips are giving way to longer visits as retailers deploy new tech and immersive experiences.
Economic headwinds, including tariffs and higher everyday costs, are limiting discretionary budgets and prompting consumers to make more selective choices about where they spend. But despite these pressures, foot traffic to several discretionary retail categories continues to thrive year-over-year (YoY).
Of the discretionary categories analyzed, fitness and apparel had the strongest year-over-year traffic trends – likely thanks to consumers finding perceived value in these segments.
Fitness and apparel (boosted by off-price) appeal to value-driven, experience seeking consumers – fitness thanks to its membership model of unlimited visits for an often low fee, and off-price with its discount prices and treasure-hunt dynamic. Both categories may also be riding a cultural wave tied to the growing use of GLP-1s, as more consumers pursue fitness goals and refresh their wardrobes to match changing lifestyles and sizes.
Big-ticket categories, including electronics, also faced significant challenges, as tighter consumer budgets hamper growth in the space. Traffic to home improvement retailers also generally declined, as lagging home sales and consumers putting off costly renovations likely contributed to the softness in the space.
But home furnishing visits pulled ahead in July and August 2025 – benefitting from strong performances at discount chains such as HomeGoods – suggesting that consumers are directing their home-oriented spending towards more accessible decor.
The beauty sector – typically a resilient "affordable luxury" category – also experienced declines in recent months. The slowdown can be partially attributed to stabilization following several years of intense growth, but it may also mean that consumers are simplifying their beauty routines or shifting their beauty buying online.
> Traffic to fitness and apparel chains – led by off-price – continued to grow YoY in 2025, as value and experiences continue to draw consumers.
> Consumers are shopping for accessible home decor upgrades to refresh their space rather than undertaking major renovations.
> Shoppers are holding off on big-ticket purchases, leading to YoY declines in the electronics and home improvement categories.
> Beauty has experienced softening traffic trends as the sector stabilizes following its recent years of hypergrowth as shoppers simplify routines and shift some of their spending online.
After two years of visit declines, the Home Furnishings category rebounded in 2025, with visits up 4.9% YoY between January and August. By contrast, Home Improvement continued its multi-year downward trend, though the pace of decline appears to have slowed.
So what’s fueling Home Furnishings’ resurgence while Home Improvement visits remain soft? Probably a combination of factors, including a more affluent shopper base and a product mix that includes a variety of lower-ticket items.
On the audience side, this category draws a much larger share of visits from suburban and urban areas, with a median household income well above that of home improvement shoppers. The differences are especially pronounced when analyzing the audience in their captured markets – indicating that the gap stems not just from store locations, but from meaningful differences in the types of consumers each category attracts.
Home improvement's larger share of rural visits is not accidental – home improvement leaders have been intentionally expanding into smaller markets for a while. But while betting on rural markets is likely to pay off down the line, home improvement may continue to face headwinds in the near future as its rural shopper base grapples with fewer discretionary dollars.
On the merchandise side, home improvement chains cater to larger renovations and higher-cost projects – and have likely been impacted by the slowdown in larger-ticket purchases which is also impacting the electronics space. Meanwhile, home furnishing chains carry a large assortment of lower-ticket items, including home decor, accessories, and tableware.
Consumers are still spending more time at home now than they were pre-COVID, and investing in comfortable living spaces is more important than ever. And although many high-income consumers are also tightening their belts, upgrading tableware or even a piece of furniture is still much cheaper than undertaking a renovation – which could explain the differences in traffic trends.
Traditional apparel, mid-tier department stores, and activewear chains all experienced similar levels of YoY traffic declines in 2025 YTD, as shown in the graph above. But analyzing traffic data from 2021 shows that each segment's dip is part of a trajectory unique to that segment.
Traffic to mid-tier department stores has been trending downward since 2021, a shift tied not only to macroeconomic headwinds but also to structural changes in the sector. The pandemic accelerated e-commerce adoption, hitting department stores particularly hard as consumers seeking one-stop shopping and broad assortments increasingly turned to the convenience of online channels.
Traffic to traditional apparel chains has also not fully recovered from the pandemic, but the segment did consistently outperform mid-tier department stores and luxury retailers between 2021 and 2024. But in H1 2025, the dynamic with luxury shifted, so that traffic trends at luxury apparel retailers are now stronger than at traditional apparel both YoY and compared to Q1 2019. This highlights the current bifurcation of consumer spending also in the apparel space, as luxury and off-price segments outperform mid-market chains.
In contrast, the activewear & athleisure category continues to outperform its pre-pandemic baseline, despite experiencing a slight YoY softening in 2025 as consumers tighten their budgets. The category has capitalized on post-lockdown lifestyle shifts, and comfort-driven wardrobes that blur the line between work, fitness, and leisure remain entrenched consumer staples several years on.
The two segments with the highest YoY growth – off-price and luxury – are at the two ends of the spectrum in terms of household income levels, highlighting the bifurcation that has characterized much of the retail space in 2025. And luxury and off-price are also benefiting from larger consumer trends that are boosting performance at both premium and value-focused retailers.
In-store traffic behavior reveals that these two segments enjoy the longest average dwell times in the apparel category, with an average visit to a luxury or off-price retailer lasting 39.2 and 41.3 minutes, respectively. This suggests that consumers are drawn to the experiential aspect of both segments – treasure hunting at off-price chains or indulging in a sense of prestige at a luxury retailer. Together, these patterns highlight that – despite appealing to different consumer groups – both ends of the market are thriving by offering shopping experiences that foster longer engagement.
> Off-price and luxury segments are outperforming, while general apparel, athleisure, and department store visits lag YoY under tariff pressures and consumer trade-downs.
> Looking over the longer term reveals that athleisure is still far ahead of its pre-pandemic baseline – even if YoY demand has softened.
> Luxury and off-price both are thriving by offering shopping experiences that foster longer engagement.
The beauty sector has long benefitted from the “lipstick effect” — the tendency for consumers to indulge in small luxuries even when discretionary spending is constrained. And while the beauty category’s softening in today’s cautious spending environment could suggest that this effect has weakened, a longer view of the data tells a more nuanced story.
Beauty visits grew significantly between 2021 and 2024, fueled by a confluence of factors including post-pandemic “revenge shopping,” demand for bolder looks as consumers returned to social life, and new store openings and retail partnerships. Against that backdrop, recent YoY traffic dips are likely a sign of stabilization rather than true declines. Social commerce, and minimalist skincare routines may be moderating in-store traffic, but shoppers are still engaged, even as they blend online and offline shopping or seek out lower-cost alternatives to maximize value.
Analysis of average visit duration for three leading beauty chains – Ulta Beauty, Bath & Body Works, and Sally Beauty Supply – highlights the shifting role but continued relevance of physical stores in the space.
Average visit duration decreased post-pandemic – likely due to more purposeful trips and increased online product discovery. But that trend began to reverse in H1 2025, signaling the changing role of physical stores. Enhanced tech for in-store product exploration and rich experiences may be helping drive deeper engagement, underscoring beauty retail’s staying power even in a more measured spending environment.
Bottom Line:
> Beauty’s slight YoY visit declines point to a period of normalization following a post-pandemic boom, while longer-term trends show the category remains stronger than pre-pandemic levels.
> Visits grew shorter post-pandemic, driven by more purposeful trips and increased online product discovery – but dwell time is now lengthening again, signaling renewed in-store engagement driven by tech-enabled discovery and immersive experiences.
Foot traffic data highlight major differences in the recent performance of various discretionary apparel categories. Off-price, fitness, and home furnishings are pulling ahead, well-positioned to keep capitalizing on shifting priorities. Luxury also remains resilient, likely thanks to its higher-income visitor base.
At the same time, beauty’s normalization and the slowdown in mid-tier apparel, electronics, and home improvement show that caution persists across discretionary budgets. Moving forward, retailers that align with consumers’ demand for value, accessible upgrades, and immersive experiences may be best placed to thrive in this era of selective spending.
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1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery formats grew year-over-year in Q2 2025, with traditional grocers posting their first rebound since early 2024.
2) Value grocers slow: After leading during the 2022–24 trade-down wave, value grocer growth has decelerated as that shift matures.
3) Fresh formats surge: Now the fastest-growing segment, fueled by affluent shoppers seeking health, wellness, and convenience.
4) Bifurcation widens: Growth concentrated at both the low-income (value) and high-income (fresh) ends, highlighting polarized spending.
5) Shopping missions diverge: Short trips are rising, supporting fresh formats, while traditional grocers retain loyal stock-up customers and value chains capture fill-in trips through private labels.
6) Traditional grocers adapt: H-E-B and Harris Teeter outperformed by tailoring strategies to their core geographies and demographics.Bifurcation of Consumer Spending Help Fresh Format Lead Grocery Growth
Grocery traffic across all four major categories – value grocers, fresh format, traditional grocery, ethnic grocers – was up year over year in Q2 2025 as shoppers continue to engage with a wide range of grocery formats. Traditional grocery posted its first YoY traffic increase since Q1 2024, while ethnic grocers maintained their steady pattern of modest but consistent gains.
Value grocers, which dominated growth through most of 2024 as shoppers prioritized affordability, continued to expand but have now ceded leadership to fresh-format grocers. Rising food costs between 2022 and 2024 drove many consumers to chains like Aldi and Lidl, but much of this “trade-down” movement has already occurred. Although price sensitivity still shapes consumer choices – keeping the value segment on an upward trajectory – its growth momentum has slowed, making it less of a driver for the overall sector.
Fresh-format grocers have now taken the lead, posting the strongest YoY traffic gains of any category in 2025. This segment, anchored by players like Sprouts, appeals to the highest-income households of the four categories, signaling a growing influence of affluent shoppers on the competitive grocery landscape. Despite accounting for just 7.0% of total grocery visits in H1 2025, the segment’s rapid gains point to a broader shift: premium brands emphasizing health and wellness are emerging as the primary engine of growth in the grocery sector.
The fact that value grocers and fresh-format grocers – segments with the lowest and highest median household incomes among their customer bases – are the two categories driving the most growth underscores how the bifurcation of consumer spending is playing out in the grocery space as well. On one end, price-sensitive shoppers continue to seek out affordable options, while on the other, affluent consumers are fueling demand for premium, health-oriented formats. This dual-track growth pattern highlights how widening economic divides are reshaping competitive dynamics in grocery retail.
1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery categories posted YoY traffic gains in Q2 2025.
2) Traditional grocery rebound: First YoY increase since Q1 2024.
3) Ethnic grocers: Continued steady but modest upward trend.
4) Value grocers: Still growing, but slowing after most trade-down activity already occurred (2022–24).
5) Fresh formats: Now the fastest-growing segment, driven by affluent shoppers and interest in health & wellness.
6) Market shift: Premium, health-oriented brands are becoming the new growth driver in grocery.
7) Bifurcation of spending: Growth at both value and fresh-format grocers highlights a polarization in consumer spending patterns that is reshaping grocery competition.
Over the past two years, short grocery trips (under 10 minutes) have grown far more quickly than longer visits. While they still make up less than one-quarter of all U.S. grocery trips, their steady expansion suggests this behavioral shift is here to stay and that its full impact on the industry has yet to be realized.
One format particularly aligned with this trend is the fresh-format grocer, where average dwell times are shorter than in other categories. Yet despite benefiting from the rise of convenience-driven shopping, fresh formats attract the smallest share of loyal visitors (4+ times per month). This indicates they are rarely used for a primary weekly shop. Instead, they capture supplemental trips from consumers looking for specific needs – unique items, high-quality produce, or a prepared meal – who also value the ability to get in and out quickly.
In contrast, leading traditional grocers like H-E-B and Kroger thrive on a classic supermarket model built around frequent, comprehensive shopping trips. With the highest share of loyal visitors (38.5% and 27.6% respectively), they command a reliable customer base coming for full grocery runs and taking time to fill their carts.
Value grocers follow a different, but equally effective playbook. Positioned as primary “fill-in” stores, they sit between traditional and fresh formats in both dwell time and visit frequency. Many rely on limited assortments and a heavy emphasis on private-label goods, encouraging shoppers to build larger baskets around basics and store brands. Still, the data suggests consumers reserve their main grocery hauls for traditional supermarkets with broader selections, while using value grocers to stretch budgets and stock up on essentials.
1) Short trips surge: Under-10-minute visits have grown fastest, signaling a lasting behavioral shift.
2) Fresh formats thrive on convenience: Small footprints, prepared foods, and specialty items align with quick missions.
3) Traditional grocers retain loyalty: Traditional grocers such as H-E-B and Kroger attract frequent, comprehensive stock-up trips.
4) Value grocers fill the middle ground: Limited assortments and private label drive larger baskets, but main hauls remain with traditional supermarkets.
5) Fresh formats as supplements: Fresh format grocers such as The Fresh Market capture quick, specialized trips rather than weekly shops.
While broad market trends favor value and fresh-format grocers, certain traditional grocers are proving that a tailored strategy is a powerful tool for success. In the first half of 2025, H-E-B and Harris Teeter significantly outperformed their category's modest 0.6% average year-over-year visit growth, posting impressive gains of 5.6% and 2.8%, respectively. Their success demonstrates that even in a polarizing environment, there is ample room for traditional formats to thrive by deeply understanding and catering to a specific target audience.
These two brands achieve their success with distinctly different, yet equally focused, demographic strategies. H-E-B, a Texas powerhouse, leans heavily into major metropolitan areas like Austin and San Antonio. This urban focus is clear, with 32.6% of its visitors coming from urban centers and their peripheries, far above the category average. Conversely, Harris Teeter has cultivated a strong following in suburban and satellite cities in the South Atlantic region, drawing a massive 78.3% of its traffic from these areas. This deliberate targeting shows that knowing your customer's geography and lifestyle remains a winning formula for growth.
1) Traditional grocers can still be competitive: H-E-B (+5.6% YoY) and Harris Teeter (+2.8% YoY) outpaced the category average of +0.6% in H1 2025.
2) H-E-B’s strategy: Strong urban focus, with 32.6% of traffic from major metro areas like Austin and San Antonio.
3) Harris Teeter’s strategy: Suburban and satellite city focus, with 78.3% of traffic from South Atlantic suburbs.
