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Off-price apparel chains continue to drive traffic in 2024. We dove into the latest location analytics for four of the largest brands – T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, Ross Dress for Less, and Burlington – to take a closer look at these retailers’ foot traffic growth and evolving visitor bases.
The off-price sector started off 2024 strong, with the four off-price leaders – T.J. Maxx, Marshalls (both owned by TJX Companies), Ross Dress for Less, and Burlington – consistently outperforming the wider non-off-price apparel segment. YoY visits to the four brands were also mostly positive for the period analyzed, in part thanks to the companies’ ongoing expansions.
Diving into the demographic composition of the four chains’ trade areas reveals that there are many formulas for success in the off-price space. And while some companies have found success by attracting families looking to stretch their budgets, others are growing their visits by drawing singles looking to stock up on the latest styles without breaking the bank.
T.J. Maxx and Marshalls – where YoY Q1 2024 visits grew 8.9% and 7.9%, respectively – both have relatively large shares of one-person households in their trade areas. Members of these one-person households are typically younger – often belonging to the coveted Gen-Z demographic – and TJX C.E.O. Ernie Herrman has emphasized the company’s success among this audience segment as an important growth driver.
Meanwhile, the 1.1% YoY increase in overall visits for Ross Dress for Less in Q1 2024 seems driven by the chain’s popularity among families – 28.4% of the chain’s captured market consists of households with children. And Burlington achieved its Q1 7.6% YoY visit growth by appealing to both demographics.
It seems, then, that each off-price leader has found a different formula for success by catering to a unique demographic mix.
Over the last several months, off-price apparel chains have outperformed traditional apparel retailers in YoY visits as they expand their real estate footprints. Taking on new territory, off-price retailers drive visits from a unique mix of households with children and singles.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai.
As visits to Superstores continue to rise, we analyzed recent foot traffic data for Walmart, Target, Costco Wholesale, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s Wholesale Club and dove into Walmart’s Q1 2024 regional performance.
Wholesale chains – which receive about 20% of all visits to Walmart, Target, Costco Wholesale, Sam’s Club (owned by Walmart), and BJ’s Wholesale Club – generally outperformed classic superstore banners Target and Walmart during the first four months of the year. Visits to all three wholesale clubs analyzed were up every month on a year-over-year (YoY) basis, with Costco maintaining its lead in the space. Some of the success of wholesale clubs may be due to the makeup of their visitor base – Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s tend to serve a large share of consumers from family households, and these may be opting for more buying in bulk in an effort to stretch budgets.
But visits to more classic superstores are also heating up – following a muted performance in January, when an arctic blast kept many at home, foot traffic to Target grew YoY in February, March, and April.
Walmart also experienced visit growth for most of the period, despite the slight dip in April due to calendar shifts: Visits for the superstore giant dropped 8.5% in YoY for the week of April 1st - 8th 2024 compared to the traffic surges of Easter week 2023 (April 3rd - 9th 2023), impacting the overall monthly numbers, but visits returned to growth during the last two weeks of April (4.3% and 4.0% YoY, respectively, for the weeks of April 15th - 21st and 22nd -28th).
And while Walmart’s growth may not be quite as impressive as that of smaller superstores, the company has retained its position as the largest retailer in the U.S. Nationwide, the Walmart banner receives over 60% of all visits to Target, Walmart, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s, and in most of the south, the superstore’s relative visit share exceeds 70%. In a handful of states – including the retailer’s home state of Arkansas along with Mississippi, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Wyoming – 4 out of every 5 visits to the five superstore chains analyzed go to Walmart.
And even as Walmart optimizes its fleet, analyzing the retailer’s Q1 2024 YoY visit increases by region reveals pockets of major growth throughout the country. In addition to the 2-5% traffic increases across most of the South – where the retailer already dominates the superstore space – Walmart is also posting impressive visit increases in the Northeast, Midwest, and Northwest, with the strongest growth in Minnesota, Wyoming, and the Dakotas.
As budget-strapped consumers continue looking for bargains, the legacy retail giant may still have room to grow even larger in 2024.
Superstore and wholesale club visits are on the rise as U.S. shoppers continue to defy predictions of a consumer spending slowdown while still looking for ways to stretch their budgets.
Will these trends continue as the year progresses?
Visit placer.ai to find out.
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Discount & Dollar Stores have become an important part of the wider retail landscape over the past couple of years, and location intelligence indicates that the category is continuing to gain momentum in 2024. We dove into the data for Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Family Dollar to understand how these banners are performing and analyze the regional reach of each chain.
Recent visitation data for the major Discount & Dollar Store banners indicates that the category is still on the rise: Monthly visits to both Dollar General and Dollar Tree grew year-over-year (YoY) between December 2023 and March 2024. Dollar Tree-owned Family Dollar – which recently announced the closure of 1000 stores over the next couple of years – also saw its YoY traffic grow in February and March.
With the exception of the week of April 1st 2024 – when the Easter calendar shift caused a regular week in 2024 to be compared to the week of Easter in 2023 – visitation trends remained positive in April, highlighting the ongoing strength of the Discount & Dollar Store category. Even Family Dollar – which has already begun to close stores – saw its numbers remain on par with last year’s visit levels, indicating the ongoing demand for value-priced goods in 2024.
Looking at the Q1 2024 state-by-state relative visit share of the three chains – Dollar General, Dollar Tree, or Family Dollar – reveals some clear regional differences in consumer preferences across states.
Dollar Tree was more popular in the West, with the Dollar Tree brand leading in most western states and the company’s Family Dollar banner receiving the plurality of visits in Wyoming. Dollar Tree was also the most-visited chain in several states on the East Coast, including Maryland, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Massachusetts.
Dollar General, meanwhile, received the majority or plurality of the visit share in the rest of the country.
But although Dollar General does receive a majority of the combined Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Family Dollar visit share nationwide, the Discount & Dollar Store category does not conform to a “winner-take-all” model. In many states, Dollar Tree’s visit share is just slightly lower than that of Dollar General.
In New York, for example, where Dollar General received 44.6% of the combined visit share in Q1 2024, 38.1% of visits in the same period went to Dollar Tree. And in Florida, where 44.2% of the combined visits to the three banners went to Dollar General, 38.2% of visits went to Dollar Tree. It seems, then, that even in states where Dollar General takes the lead, there is plenty of Discount & Dollar Store demand to sustain multiple players in the space.
Early 2024 data suggests that the Discount & Dollar Store sector is not slowing down any time soon. What will the rest of the year have in store for the space?
Visit placer.ai to find out.
Equinox hit the news this week as they rolled out a new $40,000 per year longevity membership called “Optimize by Equinox.” This program promises to provide a personalized health plan of action that includes personal training, nutrition, sleep coaching, and massage therapy. There will also be biomarker testing in partnership with Function Health and fitness testing. New York City and Highland Park, Texas are the pioneering locations for this program, with more to come. Placer took a look at the Highland Park location as well as one on Greenwich Ave in New York City. The Highland Park location has shown extraordinary year-over-year growth, with each month of the year showing increases compared to the prior year. The New York City location is a bit more mixed but had a strong showing year-over-year last fall and at the beginning of 2024.
A 2023 survey by A/B Consulting and Maveron VC suggested that almost half (46%) of people earning over $250,000 would spend the majority of their discretionary income on trying to improve health and longevity, compared to only 34% of people earning under $50,000. Bryan Johnson is a tech millionaire who is often in the press with his latest experiments at reversing aging. From routine MRIs to frequent sampling of bodily fluids, he is a rare example of what one might do to try to live forever if one had nearly unlimited means to do so. While not all of us have millions to spend on unlocking the secrets to the fountain of youth, there’s no doubt that wellness and longevity are top of mind for many people, be it endeavoring to walk 10,000 steps a day or aiming for a rainbow diet. Looking at Equinox in Highland Park in Dallas, TX we see that indeed, this wealthy enclave is an apt location to pioneer this longevity offering. In the true trade area capturing 70% of visits, more than 3 in 10 have a household income exceeding $200K.
The Spatial.ai PersonaLive dataset further cements the fact that the top visitor segments are a group with higher-than-average discretionary incomes, such as Young Professionals, Educated Urbanites, Sunset Boomers, and Ultra Wealthy Families.
Additional data from the AGS Behavior & Attitudes dataset indicates that among those living in trade areas comprising 70% of visits to the Highland Park Equinox, many are indeed health-oriented, over-indexing on behaviors such as exercising (index 122), being yoga enthusiasts (index 168), and utilizing mobile app fitness trackers (index 160). However, they tend to under-index on getting regular medical checkups (index 86) - which is exactly where Optimize could fit in with its frequent testing and personalized approach. In addition, this particular location might want to take advantage of the clamor for pedicures (index 137) and manicures (index 147) and consider increased retail media network exposure due to enthusiasm for health info from TV (index 159).
Of all the specialty retail sectors, baby has been one of the most interesting to watch over the past few years for a few reasons. The industry is closely tied to a specific consumer life stage, and the CDC recently reported that the birth rate in the United States declined 2% in 2023, reaching the lowest rate recorded. If fewer consumers enter the family formation life stage, or have fewer children, the pool of potential visitors for retailers to draw from slowly dries up. The industry also faced massive disruption over the past year with the bankruptcy of Bed Bath & Beyond and the shuttering of its buybuy Baby chain last summer. The buybuy Baby closure marked the end of the large specialty baby chain sector in the retail industry, with the category facing the bifurcation of sales and traffic between big box retailers + Amazon and small independent specialty retailers.
Still, there have been some signs of life for baby-based retail despite the headwinds. Babylist, a popular online registry tool, launched its first brick-and-mortar outpost in Los Angeles last year. Buybuy Baby’s new owners reopened 11 locations in late 2023, concentrated in New England and the Mid-Atlantic. Then, in March, Kohl’s announced its partnership with WHP Global to bring Babies“R”Us to its stores. The Babies“R”Us shop-in-shop format receives a lot of positive momentum from both the Sephora at Kohl's partnership as well as the Toys“R”Us & Macy’s partnership; both predecessor collaborations have been rolled out to a majority, if not all, doors.
This week, we learned of the 200 initial locations receiving the Babies“R”Us (BRU) concept this summer, which will receive a wide assortment of hardgoods and softgoods, and be positioned next to the children’s apparel department. This new partnership is no doubt a continuation of Kohl’s strategy to attract and retain younger visitors, and the Babies“R”Us model can hopefully help the retailer hold onto Sephora shoppers as they enter the family formation period. Another likely goal is to steal some market share away from the mass merchants dominating in baby and lure some former buybuy Baby shoppers.
According to Placer.ai data, The Babies“R”Us + Kohl’s locations performed similarly to the total Kohl’s chain in 2024, with both chains showing visits down 23% year-over-year. The Babies“R”Us + Kohl’s locations do have a slightly higher visitor median household income of $84k compared to the total chain at $81K, which supports the notion that the Sephora & Babies“R”Us partnerships are meant to bring premium offerings to the typical store.
The partnership launch, as mentioned above, is a clear offensive move to capture some of the former buybuy Baby business in the areas where the locations did not reopen. Using Placer’s location analytics, we compared a national subset of 16 former buybuy Baby locations to the newly announced Babies”R”Us + Kohl’s locations. Looking at the visit demographics between the Kohl’s locations in the first four months of 2024 and the former buybuy Baby locations in 2023, it’s clear that Kohl’s attracts a suburban family and more mature consumer base, as where buybuy Baby locations were a stronghold with young urban singles and young professionals. Kohl’s may have an opportunity to attract new or existing grandparents to the partner stores, but will need to use the Sephora angle to attract younger consumers who may also be looking to start a family in the next few years.
Kohl’s is also betting big on the East Coast, with a number of partnership stores located in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Massachusetts. A few of these locations are in direct competition with the newly reopened buybuy Baby locations and will create some fascinating local competition. In the Boston metro area, there are both a Kohl’s and buybuy Baby location within 9 miles of each other but have local differences that may benefit Kohl’s entry into the market. Kohl’s has a median household income of about $30k more than visits to buybuy Baby and also captures more loyalty, with more loyal visits than buybuy Baby throughout the first four months of 2024.
This particular Kohl’s location has a smaller disparity to buybuy Baby in attracting young professionals, but it also attracts wealthier and more mature visitors that once again may translate into attracting parents and grandparents. 22% of buybuy Baby’s trade area overlaps with Kohl’s and the two share 11 square miles of overlapping trade area, so it will be interesting to see how Kohl’s can pull visits away from the competition.
As 2024 progresses, Kohl’s opens its partnership locations, baby retail will hopefully find its footing and provide retail solutions for potential and new parents. E-commerce has filled the void for baby registry services, but brick-and-mortar retail still holds a lot of importance for parents. Baby specialty retail is essential to the success of baby products and brands, and there is a lot of white space opportunity in the category for retailers to emerge to take share. Consumers, even if there are fewer of them, need experiences and solutions provided by retailers, and baby retail is a cautionary, but optimistic tale for other specialty sectors for the remainder of the year.
How did the home improvement and decor segments fare in the first months of 2024? We checked in with some of the categories’ biggest names – including Home Depot, Lowe’s, Tractor Supply Co., Harbor Freight Tools, Homesense, HomeGoods, and At Home – to see what Q1 portends for their performance the rest of the year.
Last year was a challenging one for the home improvement space – as consumers cut back on discretionary spending and put pricey renovations on hold. But Q1 2024 visit data suggests that the category may be ready for a comeback. Throughout Q1 2024, Lowe’s saw its monthly visit gap narrow steadily – and in April 2024 saw the first YoY visit uptick the chain has experienced since 2021. And YoY visits to Home Depot were down just 0.3% in February 2024 and up 1.0% in March. Though Home Depot saw a minor visit gap emerge once again in April, the home improvement powerhouse appears to be on solid footing heading into the spring season.
While Home Depot and Lowe’s are rebounding, other home improvement chains are thriving. Discount chain Harbor Freight Tools continued to grow its footprint – and its visits – by expanding into new markets and cementing its role as a go-to destination for inexpensive home maintenance supplies. And farming essentials retailer Tractor Supply Co. also increased its store count together with its traffic. By occupying somewhat less discretionary niches, these two retailers have managed to avoid some of the headwinds plaguing the category.
The home decor segment, including brands like Homesense, HomeGoods (both owned by parent company TJX Companies), and At Home, offers consumers a way to enhance their living spaces while avoiding the high costs associated with renovations or moving. And in Q1 2024, shoppers leaned into the category’s offerings.
Despite lapping a strong 2023, Homesense – which recently decided to close its ecommerce channel and focus on offline expansion – saw YoY visit growth throughout Q1. And though inclement weather weighed on HomeGoods’ and At Home’s January performance, YoY visits to the two brands increased or remained stable in February and March. In April 2024, all three chains held steady with slight YoY visit gaps – no small feat given the category’s largely discretionary nature.
Indeed, diving into the demographics of visitors to Homesense, HomeGoods, and At Home reveals that it is more affluent consumers that are driving visits to the three chains. Each chain's potential market* boasts a median household income (HHI) close to or above the nationwide median of $76.1K/year. But the median HHI of each chain’s captured market is notably higher – suggesting it is the wealthiest consumer segments in each chain’s trade area that are visiting the brands.
*A chain’s potential market refers to the population residing in a given trade area, where the Census Block Groups (CBGs) making up the trade area are weighted to reflect the number of households in each CBG. A chain’s captured market weighs each CBG according to the actual number of visits originating to the chain from that CBG.
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Home improvement and decor chains have seen their shares of ups and downs over the past few years, from pandemic highs to inflationary lows. And while some players thrived in Q1 2024, others weathered headwinds while maintaining their equilibrium. How will the space continue to fare as 2024 progresses?
Follow Placer.ai to find out.
Sports leagues like the NBA, NFL, and MLB boast billion-dollar revenues – and the venues where these games unfold hold significant commercial potential in their own rights. Many stadiums host concerts and other shows in addition to regularly held sporting matches and can accommodate tens of thousands of spectators at once – creating massive retail, dining, and advertisement opportunities.
This white paper analyzes location intelligence metrics for some of the biggest stadiums across the country to reveal the commercial potential of these venues beyond simple ticketing revenue. Where do visitors of various stadiums like to shop? Do specific sporting and cultural events impact the nearby restaurant scene differently? How can stadium operators, local businesses, and advertisers tailor their offerings to a stadium’s particular audience and make the most of the stadium and the space throughout the year?
We take a closer look below.
The three major sports leagues – the National Basketball League (NBA), Major League Baseball (MLB), and the National Football League (NFL) – play at different points of the year, and the number of games each league holds during the season also varies.
MLB leads in game frequency, with each team playing 162 games during the regular season, which runs approximately from April through September. Basketball season is also around six months – roughly from mid-October to mid-April – but each NBA team plays only 82 games a season. And the NFL has both the shortest season – 18 weeks running from early September to early January (with the pre-season starting in August) – and the fewest number of matches per team. Understanding the monthly visitation patterns for the various types of stadiums can help advertisers, stadium operators, and other stakeholders ensure that they are leveraging the full potential of the venue throughout the year.
Unsurprisingly, the sports arenas serving the different leagues see visit spikes during their leagues’ respective season. But comparing visit numbers throughout the year to the average monthly visit numbers for each category in 2023 reveals that the relative visit increases and decreases during the on- and off-season vary for each type of stadium.
MLB stadiums display the steadiest visit strength during the on-season – perhaps due to MLB’s packed game schedule. MLB tickets also tend to be relatively affordable compared to tickets to pro football or basketball matches, which may also contribute to MLB’s consistently strong visit numbers throughout the season. During the MLB off-season, baseball fields – which tend to be uncovered – are relatively empty.
The seasonal visit spike to NBA arenas is less steady. The beginning and end of the season see strong peaks, and visits slow down slightly during the mid-season months of January and February. Visits then drop during the off-season spring and summer, but the off-season visit dip is not as low as it is for MLB fields – perhaps because the NBA arenas’ indoor nature make them suitable locations for concerts and other non-basketball events.
Meanwhile, NFL stadiums see the least dramatic drop in visits during the NFL off-season, as these venues’ enormous size also make them the ideal location for concerts and other cultural events that draw large crowds. These arenas’ strong almost year-round visitation numbers mean that sponsors and advertisers looking to expand beyond sports fans to reach a diverse audience may have the most success with these venues.
Although MLB offers the most budget-friendly outing, combining STI: Popstats demographic metrics with trade area data reveals that MLB stadium visitors reside in higher-income areas when compared with visitors to NBA or NFL stadiums.
Baseball fans tend to be older than fans of the other sports, which could partially explain MLB stadium visitors’ higher household income (HHI). The combination of lower ticket prices, higher median HHI among fans, and many games per season offers baseball stadiums significant opportunities to engage effectively with their fan bases.
But while NBA and NFL stadium attendees may not come from as high-income areas as do MLB stadium visitors, fans of live basketball and football still reside in trade areas with a higher HHI compared to the nationwide median. So by leveraging stadium space, advertisers and other stakeholders can reach tens of thousands of relatively high-income consumers easily and effectively.
Sports fans are known to be passionate, engaged, and willing to spend money on their team – but stadium visitors also shop for non-sports related goods and services. Retailers and advertisers can draw on location analytics to uncover the consumer preferences of stadium visitors and tailor campaigns, sponsorships, and collaborations accordingly.
Visitation data to the top five most visited MLB stadiums during 2023 showed differences between the apparel and sporting goods shopping preferences of the various stadiums’ attendees. While 39.4% of visitors to Truist Park also visited DICK’s in 2023, only 30.8% of Yankee Stadium visitors stopped by the sporting goods retailer in the same period. Similarly, while 29.9% of visitors to Yankee Stadium frequented Kohl’s, that percentage jumped to 47.3% for Busch Stadium visitors.
Harnessing location intelligence to see the consumer preferences of a stadium’s visitor base can help retailers, stadium operators, and even team managers choose partnerships and merchandising agreements that will yield the most effective results.
Sports and snacks go hand in hand – what would a baseball game be without a hot dog or peanuts? But while every stadium likely provides a similar core of traditional game day eats, each venue also offers a unique set of dining options, both on- and off-premise. And by leveraging location analytics to gain visibility into stadium-goers dining habits, stadium operators and local food businesses can understand how to best serve each arena’s audience.
Mapping where stadium visitors dine before and after games can help stakeholders in the stadium industry reach more fans.
The chart below shows the share of visitors coming to a stadium from a dining venue (on the x-axis) or going to a dining venue after visiting the stadium (on the y-axis). The data reveals a correlation between pre-stadium dining and post-stadium dining – stadiums where many guests visit dining venues before the stadium also tend to have a large share of guests going to dining venues after the event. For example, the AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, saw large shares of visitors grabbing a bite to eat on their journey to or from the stadium, while the M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland saw low rates of pre- and post stadium dining engagement.
These trends present opportunities for both local businesses and stadium stakeholders. For example, venues with high dining engagement can explore partnerships with local restaurants, while those with lower rates can build out their in-house dining options for hungry sports fans.
Stadiums looking to enhance their food offerings – or local entrepreneurs thinking of opening a restaurant near a stadium – can also get inspired by stadium visitors’ dining preferences. For example, psychographic data taken from the Spatial.ai: FollowGraph dataset reveals that visitors to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey have a much stronger preference for Asian cuisine compared to New Jersey residents overall. With that knowledge, the stadium can enhance the visitor experience by expanding its Asian food offerings.
On the other hand, MetLife Stadium goers seem much less partial to Brewery fare than average New Jerseyans, so the stadium operators and restaurateurs may want to avoid offering too many Brewery-themed dining options. Stadium stakeholders can reserve the craft beers for Caesars Stadium, M&T Bank Stadium, and Soldier Field Stadiums, where visitors seem to enjoy artisanal brews more than the average resident in Louisiana, Maryland, and Illinois, respectively.
All of the stadiums analyzed exhibited unique visitor dining tastes, a reminder that no customer or fan base is alike. Aligning on- or off-site dining options with offerings that align with a given customer base’s preferences can improve overall visitor satisfaction and boost revenues.
Zooming in to look at consumer behavior around individual events reveals further variability in dining preferences even among visitors to the same stadium, with different types of events driving distinct dining behaviors.
State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, is home to the Arizona Cardinals. The stadium hosted the 2023 Super Bowl, but the NFL stadium also acts as a concert venue for acts ranging from Taylor Swift to Metallica. And location intelligence reveals that the dining preferences of stadium visitors vary based on the events held at the venue.
During the Super Bowl, sports bars such as Yard House and Buffalo Wild Wings saw the largest increase in visits compared to the chains’ daily average. A month later, attendees at Taylor Swift's concert gave fried-chicken leader Raising Cane’s a significant boost.
Local restaurants can leverage location analytics to see what types of events are popular with their visitor base and craft collaborations and advertising campaigns that resonate effectively with their patrons.
Sports stadiums and arenas are not just spaces for sports and music enthusiasts to gather; they also offer significant commercial opportunities for the surrounding communities. Stadium operators and local businesses can fine-tune their offerings by utilizing location analytics to better connect with their visitor bases and uncover new retail opportunities.
The dining industry showcased its agility over the past couple of years as it rapidly adapted to shifts in consumer preference brought on by COVID and rising prices. And with a new year around the corner, the pace of change shows no signs of slowing down.
This white paper harnesses location analytics, including visitation patterns, demographic data, and psychographic insights, to explore the trends that will shape the dining space in 2024. Which dining segments are likely to pull ahead of the pack? How are chains responding to changes in visitor behavior? And where are brands driving dining foot traffic by taking advantage of a new advertising possibility? Read on to find out how dining leaders can tap into emerging trends to stay ahead of the competition in 2024.
Comparing quarterly visits in 2023 and 2022 highlights the impact of the ongoing economic headwinds on the dining industry. The year started off strong, with year-over-year (YoY) dining visits up overall in Q1 2023 – perhaps aided by the comparison to an Omicron-impacted muted Q1 2022. And while overall dining growth stalled in Q2 2023, several segments – including QSR, Fast Casual, and Coffee – continued posting YoY visit increases, likely bolstered by consumers trading down from pricier full-service concepts.
Foot traffic slowed significantly in Q3 2023 as inflation and tighter consumer budgets constrained discretionary spending. Overall dining visits fell 2.4% YoY, and full-service restaurants – with their relatively high price point compared to other dining segments – seemed to be particularly impacted by the wider economic outlook. But the data also revealed some bright spots: Fast Casual still succeeded in maintaining positive YoY visit numbers and Coffee saw its Q3 visit grow an impressive 5.4% YoY. As the return to office continues, a pre-work coffee run or lunchtime foray to a fast-casual chain may continue propelling the two segments forward.
Restaurant visitation patterns have evolved over the past few years. Although an 8 PM seating was once the most coveted slot at fine-dining restaurants, recent visitation data suggests that sitting down to dinner earlier is rising in popularity.
But among the QSR segment, the opposite trend is emerging, with late-night visits rising. Analyzing hourly foot traffic to several major QSR chains reveals that the share of visits between 9 PM and 12 AM increased significantly between Q3 2019 and Q3 2023. Even Taco Bell – already known for its popularity among the late-night crowd – saw a substantial increase in late-night visits YoY – from 15.4% to 20.3%.
Who is driving the late night visit surge? One reason restaurants have been expanding their opening hours is to capture more Gen-Z diners, who tend to seek out nighttime dining options. But location intelligence reveals that younger millennials are also taking advantage of the later QSR closing times.
An analysis of the captured market for trade areas of top locations within one of Taco Bell’s major markets – the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan area – reveals a year-over-four-year (Yo4Y) increase in “Singles & Starters.” The “Singles & Starters” segment is defined by Experian: Mosaic as young singles and starter families living in cities who are typically between 25 and 30 years old. As consumers continue to prioritize experiential entertainment and going out with friends, late-night dining may continue to see increased interest from young city-dwellers.
Millennials and Gen-Z consumers aren’t only heading to their favorite fast food joint for a late-night bite – these audience segments are also helping drive visits on the weekends. Smoothie King is one chain feeling the benefits of young, health-conscious consumers.
The chain, which opened in New Orleans, LA, in 1973 as a health food store, has since grown to over 1,100 locations nationwide and is currently expanding, focusing on the Dallas-Fort Worth CBSA. The area’s Smoothie King venues have seen strong visitation patterns, particularly on the weekends – weekend visits were up 3.4% YoY in Q3 2023. The smoothie brand’s trade areas in the greater Dallas region is also seeing a YoY increase in weekend visits from “Young Professionals” – defined by the Spatial.ai PersonaLive dataset as “well-educated young professionals starting their careers in white-collar or technical jobs.”
While some dining chains are appealing to the late-night or weekend crowd, others are driving visits by appealing to sports lovers. How have recent rule changes around student athletes changed the restaurant game, and how can college football teams drive business in their hometowns?
College sports have long been a major moneymaker, with top-tier teams raking in billions of dollars annually. And as of 2021, college athletes can enjoy a piece of the significant fan following of college sports thanks to the change in the NCAA’s Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) rules, which now allows student athletes to sign endorsement deals.
Since then, multiple restaurants have jumped on the opportunity to partner with student athletes, some of whom have millions of followers on Instagram and TikTok. Chains like Chipotle, Sweetgreen, Slim Chickens, and Hooters have all signed college athletes to various brand deals.
How can brands ensure they partner with athletes their customers will want to engage with? Analyzing a chain’s audience by looking at the interests of residents in a given chain’s trade area can reveal which type of athlete will be the most attractive to each brand’s customer base. For example, data from Spatial.ai: Followgraph provides insight into the social media activity of consumers in a given trade area and can highlight desirable partnerships.
Examining the trade areas of Chipotle, Sweetgreen, Slim Chickens, and Hooters, for instance, reveals that Sweetgreen’s visitors tended to have the largest share of Women’s Soccer followers. Conversely, Sweetgreen’s trade area had lower-than-average shares of College Football Fans or College Basketball Fans, while residents of the trade areas of the other three chains showed greater-than-average interest in these sports. Leveraging location intelligence can help companies choose brand deals that their customers resonate with and find the ideal athletes to represent the chain.
Finding the right college athlete partnership is one way for dining brands to appeal to college sports enthusiasts. But dining chains and venues located near major college stadiums also benefit from the popularity of their local team by enjoying a major game day visit boost.
One of the country’s most popular college football teams, the Ohio State Buckeyes, can draw millions of TV viewers, and its stadium has a capacity of 102,780 – one of the largest stadiums in the country. And while tailgating is a popular activity for Buckeyes fans, nearby restaurants are some of the biggest beneficiaries of the college football craze. Panera experienced a 235.3% increase on game days as compared to a typical day, Domino’s Pizza visits grew by 283.3%, and Tommy’s Pizza, a local pie shop, saw its visits jump by a whopping 600.9%.
This influx in diners also causes a major shift in game day visitor demographics, as revealed by changes in visitors at dining venues located near stadiums of two of the nation’s best college football teams – the Ohio State Buckeyes and Ole Miss Rebels. Based on Spatial.ai: Personalive data for the captured market of these dining venues, game day visitors tended to come from “Ultra Wealthy Families” when compared to visitors during a typical non-game day in September or October.
The analysis indicates that popular sporting events create a unique opportunity for restaurants near college stadiums to attract high-income customers game day after game day, year after year.
While some spend game day tailgating or visiting a college restaurant, others hold a viewing party – with a six-foot submarine. And the sub’s popularity extends beyond Superbowl Sundays. Sandwich chains including Jersey Mike’s, Firehouse Subs, Jimmy John’s, and Subway (recently purchased by the same company that owns Jimmy John’s) have seen sustained YoY increases in visits and visits per venue in the first three quarters of 2023.
Some of the growth to these chains may be related to their affordability, a draw at all times but especially during a period marked by consumer uncertainty and rising food costs. And subway leaders seem to be seizing the moment and striking while the iron is hot – Jersey Mike’s opened 350 stores in 2023 and still saw its YoY visits per venue grow by 6.6%. And Subway reported ten consecutive quarters of positive sales, a promising sign for its new owner.
The love for a healthy, affordable sandwich extends across all income levels, with all four chains seeing a range in their visitors' median household income (HHI). Out of the four chains analyzed, Jersey Mike’s – which has long prioritized a suburban, middle-income customer – had the highest trade area median household income of the four chains at $77.3K/year. Subway, known for its affordability, had the lowest, with $62.9K/year. The variance in median HHI combined with the strong foot traffic growth shows that when it comes to sandwiches, there’s something for everyone.
Persistent inflation and declining consumer sentiment may pose serious challenges for the dining space, but emerging trends are helping boost some restaurants. Customers seeking out a late-night bite drive visits to QSR chains, and health-conscious diners are boosting foot traffic to smoothie bars and sandwich shops. Meanwhile, sports sponsorships and game-day restaurant visits can provide a boost to dining businesses that take advantage of these opportunities.
“Retail media networks have turned retailers into ad moguls. That’s a huge change and nobody yet understands all the implications of it.”
Constantine von Hoffman, MARTECH
Companies operating consumer-facing brick-and-mortar venues traditionally relied on selling goods and services as their primary revenue stream. But recently, leading retailers such as Walmart and Target have begun to leverage their immense store fleet into a powerful advertising platform.
Online retailers have been tapping into the advertising power of their digital sites for years by relying on various automated tools to show third-party advertisements to relevant consumer segments. But now, retailers with a strong offline presence can also leverage physical marketing impressions and focus their campaigns while reaching consumers at the point of purchase. Retailers have long recognized the intent that drives a store visit, and understanding the full value of leveraging that visit to its full extent is an important new frontier.
Major retailers are continuing to see their physical visits outnumber their online ones.
And in spite of the gloomy predictions regarding the future of brick and mortar retail, major retailers are continuing to see their physical visits outnumber their online ones. Monthly numbers of visitors to Walmart and Target significantly outpace the brands’ online reach, according to web data from Similarweb. So although, up until recently, these brands have focused their media placements on their digital channels, it is becoming increasingly clear that these chains’ physical stores hold powerful – and currently untapped – advertising potential.
Online visitor data source: similarweb.com
And with the recent rise in digital advertising costs, retail media networks are becoming more attractive for companies looking to make the most of their ad budget. Retail media networks can also help brands reach rural communities, elderly Americans, and other consumer segments that are currently underserved by digital advertisers.
This white paper explores several retailers on the cutting edge of the retail media network revolution. Keep reading to find out how advertisers can use retail media networks to promote to hard-to-reach consumers, segment their ad spending, and optimize their campaigns.
Residents of rural areas use the internet less frequently, and have lower levels of technology ownership than their urban and suburban counterparts. As a result, companies that stick to digital advertising may have a harder time reaching rural consumers. Brick and mortar retailers popular in smaller markets can fill in the gaps and help brands promote their products and services to this hard-to-reach audience.
Brick and mortar retailers popular in smaller markets can help brands advertise to hard-to-reach audiences.
Dollar General saw significant success over the pandemic, with the current economic climate continuing to benefit the brand. Between January and August 2022, nationwide visits to Dollar General venues were 35.6% higher than they were between January and August 2019, while the number of visitors increased 25.4% in the same period.Visit numbers aggregate the visits to the chain’s various locations in a given period, while visitor numbers track the number of people who enter the brand’s stores.
The company has also been operating a media network since 2018. The Dollar General Media Network (DGMN) enables advertisers to reach Dollar General consumers across the company’s channels to build awareness both digitally and in physical spaces. Advertisers with DGMN can display in-store bollard, blade, and wipe stand signs, security pedestals, basket bottomers, and shelfAdz to deliver in-store messaging from parking lot to purchase. Recently, Dollar General announced that its ad platform was now working with 21 new advertising partners, including Unilever, General Mills, Hershey’s, and Colgate-Palmolive.
Embracing the Power of the Small Market
Advertising partners can leverage the DGMN to promote their goods and services to harder-to-reach consumers.
Dollar General has been serving rural residents for years, with the majority of the company’s stores located in communities with fewer than 20,00 residents. And while the brand is growing nationwide, Dollar General’s strength is particularly evident in small markets – which means that advertising partners can leverage the DGMN to promote their goods and services to harder-to-reach consumers.
Comparing year-over-three-year (Yo3Y) visit change to Dollar General stores in metropolitan and micropolitan core based statistical areas (CBSAs) highlights the company’s success in smaller markets. According to the United States Office of Management and Budget, metropolitan and micropolitan CBSAs have over and under 50,000 residents, respectively. Since January 2022, monthly Yo3Y visit growth to Dollar General venues in select Texas micropolitans has consistently outpaced foot traffic to nearby metropolitan areas. While the Sherman-Denison metro area saw August 2022 foot traffic hit a solid 24.5% increase over August 2019, the Gainesville, Texas micro area – around 35 miles east of Sherman – saw its foot traffic increase 54.5% in the same period.
Dollar General’s presence across a significant number of smaller markets means that advertising partners can use the growing DGMN to increase awareness and drive purchase consideration among these harder-to-reach consumers.
In the digital space, three tech giants – Alphabet (previously Google), Meta (previously Facebook), and Amazon – enjoy over 60% of the digital ad revenue in the United States. This means that companies are competing for impressions on a small number of platforms – and smaller brands geared at specific consumer segments may need to spend significant advertising budgets to outbid the larger players. Retail media networks create additional advertising platforms, and enable advertisers to diversify their ad spend, increase their (physical) impressions, focus on more specialized channels to better reach their audience, and potentially reach customers at their highest point of intent.
Retail media networks create additional advertising platforms and potentially reach customers at their highest point of intent.
Albertsons launched its retail media network, Albertsons Media Collective, in November 2021 with the goal of delivering “digitally native, shopper-centric and engaging branded content to the company’s ever-growing network of shoppers.” Currently, the grocer’s media network is primarily digital, but Albertsons’ head of retail media products Evan Hovorka recognizes the importance of leveraging in-store assets to deliver a unique advertising experience. The company is testing out smart carts that link with “Albertsons for U” loyalty program to display ads to shoppers – and Albertsons is likely to find more ways to reach in-store consumers as it continues to develop its retail media network.
The chain is also one of the most popular grocers nationwide. With the exception of March and April 2022, when inflation and high gas prices temporarily halted growth, the brand’s monthly visits and visitor numbers have consistently exceeded pre-pandemic levels. Monthly visits for Albertsons in August 2022 were up 5.7% and monthly visitors were up 5.4% on a Yo3Y basis. This means that advertisers with Albertsons can increase their reach and grow their physical ad impressions just by displaying their ads in Albertsons locations and tapping into the chain’s growing visitor base.
Looking beyond Albertsons' nationwide average foot traffic trends reveals some important regional differences. Between January and July 2022, visits to the brands increased 4.6% in Wyoming on a Yo3Y basis, while foot traffic to the brand’s locations in Oregon jumped 18.5% compared to January through July 2019. This means that a brand looking to reach consumers in Oregon can contract with Albertsons’ media network to show its ads to a fast-growing pool of visitors.
A larger visitor count translates to an increase in unique ad impressions, while more visits from fewer visitors can drive repeated exposures.
Diving deeper into the data reveals an additional layer of insight. Some states with only moderate visit growth are seeing a surge in visitor numbers, while other states are seeing a drop in visitor numbers but a rise in visits. A larger visitor count translates to an increase in unique ad impressions and more people exposed to the ads, while more visits from fewer visitors translates to more overall impressions that can drive repeated exposure among a smaller group of visitors. So advertisers can use segmented foot traffic data to decide where to focus their marketing depending on the goal of the campaign.
For example, Wyoming's moderate increase in visits hides a significant spike in visitors, which means that advertisers to Albertsons venues in Wyoming can get their impressions before a large number of different potential consumers. Meanwhile, Oregon's 18.5% increase in visits is the result of just a 9.4% increase in visitors – so Albertsons is cultivating an increasingly loyal following in the Beaver State, and the grocer’s advertising partners can expect that the same visitors will be exposed to their brand repeatedly.
So companies that want to increase unique ad impressions and build awareness can advertise to Albertsons customers in Wyoming, where their ads will be seen by a large number of new people. But in Oregon, companies may want to promote a campaign that focuses on moving Albertsons visitors through their funnel.
In order to accurately assess the ad distribution patterns in each location, brands operating retail media networks need to understand both visits and visitors trends in each region and for the chain as a whole.
Advertisers with retail media networks can use foot traffic data to refine their geographic audience by identifying the consumer preferences of a given brick-and-mortar brand on a store or city level.
In August 2020, CVS Pharmacy launched its media network, the CVS Media Exchange (cMx). The company estimates that 76% of U.S. consumers live within five miles of at least one store, and the cMx allows partners to tap into the chain’s reach by giving advertisers access to CVS’ online and offline channels, including in-store ads.
Although CVS has been closing locations recently, the brand is still one of the strongest players in the brick-and-mortar retail space. Its 2022 visit numbers have consistently exceeded pre-pandemic levels nationwide, and data from CVS locations in leading cities shows that its Yo3Y visits per venue and visitor numbers are even higher.
CVS’s nationally distributed fleet means that the brand’s locations in different regions attract distinct consumer bases.
CVS carries a varied product mix of daily essentials in addition to its healthcare offerings, so the brand attracts a wide range of consumer segments. And the chain’s nationally distributed store fleet means that CVS has locations in different regions that attract distinct consumer bases who do not all have the same lifestyle preferences. By using foot traffic data to understand the regional consumer preferences of CVS consumers beyond the store, advertising partners can refine their market and make the most of the cMx.
Different regions have different fitness cultures. Chains catering to health-conscious consumers can use retail media networks and foot traffic data to focus their efforts on areas where inhabitants exhibit a high demand for regular workouts.
Analyzing cross-visit data from CVS locations across five major urban centers in the U.S. shows that the percentage of those who also visited gyms or fitness studios varied significantly across each DMA. In the New York area, 62.7% of those who visited CVS in Q2 2022 also visited a fitness venue during that period, in contrast with only 38.0% of CVS visitors around Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX in the same period. This information can help advertising partners in the health and wellness space decide where to place their campaigns.
Looking at cross-visit data on a city-wide level can provide a sense of the consumer culture in each area, but advertisers that dive into foot traffic data for individual stores can refine their messaging even further.
On average, 43.8% of CVS visitors in the Chicago DMA also visited a gym in Q2 2022. But drilling down to the top CVS locations in the city reveals that the rate of cross-visits varies significantly from location to location. Both the E 53rd Street and W 103rd Street locations have a relatively high share of visitors who visit fitness locations – 52.5% and 49.2%, respectively. Meanwhile fitness cross-visits were at just 36.6% for the South Stony Island Avenue location. Advertisers promoting health and wellness related products and services may want to focus on the 103rd St. and 53rd St. CVS locations.
Diving into a customer’s behavior and preferences outside the store can help retail media network operators and advertising partners find the areas and locations best suited for each type of ad.
Cross-visit data is one way to identify consumer preferences beyond the physical store. Advertisers can also analyze digital preferences of offline visitors to focus their marketing on the most appropriate locations.
Advertisers can also analyze digital preferences of offline visitors to focus on the most appropriate locations.
Over the past couple of years, Macy’s has been finding ways to reinvent itself and optimize its store fleet – and foot traffic data indicates that the retailer's efforts are paying off. In the first half of 2022, Macy’s exceeded its H1 2021 overall visit and average visits per venue numbers and posted a positive year-over-year (YoY) visitor count. In Q2 2022, despite the wider economic challenges, Macy’s visitors, visits, and average visits per venue saw YoY increases of 3.4%, 4.0% and 9.9% increases.
Like CVS, Macy’s launched its media network in August 2020, and by February 2021 the Macy’s Media Network was already generating $35 million annually. In addition to advertising on the company’s digital channels, Macy’s also offers partners the use of in-store screen displays, package inserts, and the brand’s iconic billboard in New York City’s Herald Square.
Advertisers can optimize their advertising by analyzing the differences in consumer profiles between a chain’s various stores.
Advertisers that understand the differences in consumer profiles between a chain’s various stores can optimize their advertising efforts. While looking at variations in cross-visit trends is one way to identify interested brick-and-mortar consumers, diving into visitor’s digital behavior and online preferences can also provide valuable insights.
Tools such as Spatial.ai’s GeoWeb, which tracks online engagement with various trends and topics by neighborhood, can reveal how offline consumers behave online. An index score of 100 indicates that consumers in an area have an average interest in a given topic, while scores over (or under) 100 indicate that consumers are more (or less) interested in the topic when compared to the national average interest.
We used Spatial.ai’s GeoWeb tool to analyze the online behavior of consumers in the True Trade Areas (TTA) of five Macy’s locations in the Philadelphia, PA DMA – and found that residents of the different TTAs stores showed differing indexes. For example, the Macy’s in the King of Prussia Mall location showed a high index of 161 in “Men’s Business Clothes Shoppers,” while the Cottman Ave. location had an only slightly above average index of 102. This means that advertisers of men’s business apparel may see more results by focussing their advertising on visitors to the King of Prussia location.
Advertisers that use retail media networks do a lot more than just reach in-store shoppers. Stores exist in the physical world, so advertisers can also reach passers-by through physical venues’ windows, blade signs – or in the case of Macy’s, through its Herald Square Billboard. Here too, foot traffic data can reveal the consumer preferences of people walking by the sign.
We looked at the online behavior in the TTA around the traffic pin on the corner where the billboard is located (Broadway/6th Ave and 34th Street in New York) to understand which advertisers might benefit most from a billboard at that location. While the “Men’s Business Clothes Shoppers” category was over-indexed compared to the national average, as would be expected in midtown Manhattan, “Women’s Fashion Brand Shoppers” had an even higher index. “Gen Z Apparel Shoppers” were over-represented, but “Leather Good Shoppers” and ”Athleisure Shoppers” were under-represented. So a brand that carries both elegant wear and athleisure may want to display its less casual clothing lines on the billboard.
Understanding how consumers behave both on and offline can help retail media networks and advertising partners promote their campaigns most effectively.
To transform their physical store fleet into a media network, brands and companies need to analyze the reach of each venue. The same chain operating in multiple regions may be reaching different types of consumers in each area, or even in various neighborhoods of the same city. These distinct audiences may have contrasting products, brands, and shopping preferences.
Retailers that leverage their brick and mortar presence can transform the advertisement space as it exists today.
Retailers can also partner with advertising partners who wish to promote goods and services not carried by the retailer. For this to succeed, the retailer will need to analyze how consumers behave outside of its stores. Understanding what characterizes the overall behavior of consumers in each locations’ trade area will allow the retailer to reach a larger audience and truly compete with the digital giants. And by leveraging their brick and mortar presence, brick and mortar retail can transform the advertisement space as it exists today.
