.svg)
Economic pressures created a challenging backdrop for the QSR space in 2025. Many consumers adjusted their dining-out habits, leading to uneven foot traffic across the category. Within this environment, AI-powered location intelligence suggests that Yum! Brands – the parent company of Taco Bell, KFC, Pizza Hut, and Habit Burger & Grill – has been comparatively well positioned. We dove into the data for a closer look at how Yum! and its portfolio performed in 2025 and the most recent Q4.
Although limited-service restaurants faced headwinds in 2025, Yum! Brands appeared to stay ahead of the pack. As a whole, the company's portfolio – QSRs plus the smaller Habit Burger & Grill – posted year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic growth in every quarter, outperforming the broader QSR category, which recorded YoY visit declines during much of the year.
Beyond value and compelling menu innovation, convenience and ease of experience remain central to why consumers choose limited-service chains. To reinforce its advantage, Yum! has spent the past year expanding its suite of AI-driven technology tools across its brands – platforms designed to optimize restaurant operations, delivery, and digital ordering. The company has even pointed to its proprietary software as an enabler of daily menu drops and viral promotions, reinforcing the other two critical motivations for limited-service diners: craveability and value. As these tools roll out to more locations, the data suggests Yum!’s competitive edge could continue.
An analysis of foot traffic across Yum! Brands’ portfolio highlights which concepts are driving the company’s visit gains. Pizza Hut and Habit Burger & Grill recorded YoY monthly overall visit and same-store visit growth in most of Q4 2025 – indicating that underlying demand remains intact despite heightened volatility in the current economic environment.
Of the four brands, however, Taco Bell remains Yum!’s primary driver of growth. The brand delivered the largest and most consistent YoY monthly overall visit and same-store visit growth throughout Q4 2025 – with National Taco Day promotions and the return of Cheesy Dipping Burritos likely contributing to elevated traffic.
Meanwhile, KFC experienced month-to-month visit gaps throughout Q4 2025 while mustering nearly flat same-store visits. This could suggest that while the brand has consolidated its footprint, existing locations see sufficient demand to support a broader turnaround strategy.
Even as economic pressures continue to reshape how consumers engage with limited-service dining, Yum! Brands appears well positioned to navigate ongoing uncertainty. A combination of operational investment and consumer-facing innovation suggests the company’s portfolio has built a durable foundation to support evolving market conditions.
Want more restaurant industry insights? Visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Saks Global’s Chapter 11 filing reflects a convergence of balance-sheet pressure and evolving consumer behavior rather than a sudden collapse of its brands or customer relevance. Following the acquisition of Neiman Marcus in late 2024, the company carried a significantly higher debt load, which reduced financial flexibility at a time when the broader luxury department store sector was facing uneven demand.
But while a missed interest payment was the immediate catalyst for the bankruptcy filing, traffic data suggests that the challenges facing Saks Global extended beyond balance-sheet constraints. AI-powered traffic data shows that Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus were underperforming most major department stores both on average visits per venue and on rates of repeat visitors already in H1 – before supplier relationships became more visibly strained. So even if inventory constraints and vendor caution likely amplified these trends in H2, the data suggests that softer consumer engagement with these chains was also due to earlier challenges in delivering an experience that consistently brought shoppers through the door.
(Kohl’s is a notable exception – while it underperformed Neiman Marcus on year-over-year visits per venue in H1, the banner still maintained the highest rate of repeat visitation by far, pointing to a more resilient customer base that can help cushion short-term traffic volatility).
Analyzing in-store behavior at Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus relative to other premium department stores is also revealing. Both banners skew more heavily toward midday and weekday visits than Nordstrom or Bloomingdale’s, a pattern that suggests a greater reliance on proximity- and convenience-driven traffic rather than by planned destination trips.
In contrast, Nordstrom and Bloomingdale's capture more visits during evenings, and weekends – times typically associated with browsing, social shopping, and occasions when shoppers are more willing to spend time in-store. These visit patterns reinforce the idea that Saks and Neiman Marcus are currently attracting more “pop-in” visits than experience-led ones.
Looking ahead, Saks Global’s path out of bankruptcy depends on repairing its balance sheet while rebuilding in-store experiences that support destination-driven shopping. To remain competitive, the company will need to restore consistent inventory, sharpen merchandising curation, and reinvest in service and experiences that encourage planned visits rather than incidental stop-ins.
At the same time, the data suggests a clear framework for rationalizing the footprint. Underperforming locations are likely those that skew heavily toward weekday, midday, and low-frequency visits, signaling reliance on proximity rather than loyalty or experience. These stores may struggle to justify continued investment, particularly if they sit in markets with limited repeat demand or weak engagement relative to peers. By using traffic trends, visit timing, and repeat behavior to guide closure or consolidation decisions, Saks Global can emerge from bankruptcy with a smaller but healthier store base – one aligned around markets where the brand can reclaim its role as a destination. In that sense, bankruptcy offers not just a financial reset, but a chance to refocus the business around the stores and experiences most likely to drive sustainable, long-term demand.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Rising travel, lodging, and theme park costs are reshaping how people spend their leisure time. Instead of long-distance or high-ticket trips, consumers are increasingly turning to local outdoor spaces – an option that is lower cost, flexible, and repeatable. What began as a pandemic-era adjustment has solidified into a durable behavioral shift, with meaningful implications for retailers, restaurants, real estate owners, and civic leaders.
Visits to local parks remain well above 2019 levels, signaling that outdoor spaces are no longer a temporary substitute for other leisure options but a primary destination in their own right.
Importantly, people are not just showing up more often – they are staying longer. The share of park visits lasting more than 30 minutes has increased meaningfully compared to pre-pandemic norms, indicating deeper engagement rather than quick, utilitarian stops.
This shift elevates parks from passive amenities to active drivers of surrounding economic activity. Longer visits create more opportunities for nearby food, retail, and service businesses to capture spend before and after park usage.
Visits to outdoor retailers also remain mostly above pre-pandemic levels throughout 2025, even as year-over-year performance versus 2024 fluctuates month to month. Stronger comparisons against 2019 – especially during spring and fall – suggest that outdoor retail demand is supported by a structurally larger base of outdoor participation rather than a short-lived rebound. This resilience reinforces outdoor retail as a downstream beneficiary of sustained, lifestyle-driven shifts toward local recreation.
Park visitation patterns have also shifted later in the day. Evening visits – particularly between 6:00 PM and 10:00 PM – now account for a larger share of total traffic than they did in 2019. This reflects broader changes in work schedules, hybrid work adoption, and how people structure leisure around daily routines.
For businesses and municipalities alike, this timing shift is critical. Demand is increasingly concentrated outside traditional daytime hours, which has implications for operating hours, staffing, safety, and programming decisions
The sustained shift toward local, outdoor leisure has broad implications across retail, dining, real estate, and the public sector.
For retailers, especially those tied to outdoor activities or convenience-driven purchases, increased park visitation and longer dwell times translate into more frequent, trip-based shopping opportunities. Proximity to parks, trails, and outdoor corridors matters more as consumers increasingly combine recreation with same-day retail needs.
Dining operators can benefit from the same dynamics. As park visits stretch later into the day, food demand increasingly overlaps with evening meal and snack occasions. Restaurants positioned near parks or along common access routes are well placed to capture post-activity traffic, particularly if hours and menus align with evening usage.
For commercial real estate owners and developers, park adjacency has become a tangible performance factor rather than a soft placemaking feature. Consistent, repeat visitation to nearby outdoor spaces can help stabilize foot traffic for retail and mixed-use assets, especially as consumers pull back from destination-oriented travel and entertainment.
Civic stakeholders also play a central role. Rising visitation – particularly in the evening – raises the importance of lighting, safety, maintenance, and programming that reflect how residents actually use parks today. Well-supported parks not only improve quality of life but also generate economic spillovers for surrounding businesses.
Organizations that align their locations, operating hours, and investment decisions with this reality are best positioned to capture value as leisure continues to localize.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
.avif)
As Winter Storm Fern advanced across the U.S. in late January, consumer behavior followed a predictable pattern: early preparation gave way to a sharp pre-storm rush, followed by widening geographic divergence as conditions worsened. Retail visit data from January 22nd and 23rd highlights how quickly storm-driven demand intensified – and which categories and regions were best positioned to capture it.
Retailers saw a clear escalation in traffic from January 22nd to January 23rd, underscoring how storm proximity compressed shopping activity into a narrow window.
Home Improvement & Furnishings retailers saw the largest visit spikes on both January 22nd and 23rd as consumers focused on preparing their homes ahead of the storm. Visits were already 20.2% above the YTD (January 1st to 23rd) daily average on January 22nd and rose to 41.7% above average the following day – making the category the clear pre-storm leader. The pattern suggests shoppers were prioritizing purchases such as heating supplies, generators, weatherproofing materials, and snow-removal equipment as conditions grew more imminent.
Grocery Stores recorded the second-largest increases, reflecting consumers’ efforts to stock up on food and beverages in anticipation of staying home, with visits up 14.2% on January 22nd and climbing to 28.4% on January 23rd compared to the YTD daily average.
Value-oriented and necessity-driven categories also saw demand intensify. Discount & Dollar Stores experienced a modest 6.2% lift on January 22nd, which surged to 25.5% the following day. Drugstores & Pharmacies saw visits climb from 9.8% to 21.0%, while Superstores rose from 7.5% to 19.9% over the same period.
Pet Stores & Services stood out for their late-breaking surge: after seeing virtually flat traffic on January 22nd (+0.2%), visits jumped to 18.5% above average on January 23rd, suggesting that many consumers delayed pet-related preparedness until just before conditions worsened.
Across all categories, the doubling of visit lifts from one day to the next indicates that while some consumers planned ahead, a significant share delayed their storm preparations until the threat felt immediate.
The storm’s west-to-east progression was also reflected in shifting regional visitation patterns. On January 22nd, the largest visit surges were concentrated in parts of the Midwest, consistent with Winter Storm Fern’s earlier impacts across inland regions. By January 23rd, as the storm intensified and expanded across the South and Eastern Seaboard, retail visits spiked sharply in those areas as consumers rushed to complete last-minute errands ahead of worsening conditions. At the same time, parts of the Midwest saw more muted growth or visit slowdowns, suggesting that storm-related shopping activity there may have peaked earlier.
This data suggests that storm-related shopping remains a fundamentally local behavior, with consumers responding most strongly when severe conditions feel imminent in their immediate area. At the same time, the Midwest slowdown suggests that storm-related demand is finite and front-loaded, with visit activity tapering once households complete their initial preparation trips.
AI-driven location analytics reveals that storm-driven retail demand is not only intense but highly compressed, with visits surging in the brief window just before conditions deteriorate locally and fading quickly once preparation trips are complete. For retailers, capturing weather-driven demand seems to depend less on the size of the storm and more on aligning operations to where – and when – urgency is about to peak.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Tractor Supply’s growing footprint continues to stand out in a retail environment where many chains remain cautious about physical expansion. We took a closer look at Tractor Supply’s market positioning to better understand how the chain’s deliberate expansion strategy sets it up for success in 2026.
Tractor Supply continued to scale its physical footprint in 2025, leveraging the acquisition of former Big Lots sites and reinforcing store growth as a core lever of its “Life Out Here” strategy. The chain’s expansion likely contributed to its steady year-over-year (YoY) visit growth throughout 2025. Meanwhile, positive average visits per location in most months suggests that new stores were capturing incremental demand rather than diluting traffic at existing locations – reinforcing management’s commentary around limited cannibalization.
Tractor Supply intends to open around 100 new stores in 2026 as part of its longer-term roadmap to 3200 stores (the retailer currently has 2,398 locations), setting high expectations for continued foot traffic growth in 2026.
As Tractor Supply expands, its strategy has been focused on rural and western high-growth markets where demand remains underserved. And with a relatively small store format, Tractor Supply has a distinct advantage over big-box chains that often face site-selection challenges in these markets.
Analysis of AI-based potential market data combined with the STI: Market Outlook dataset shows that the unmet demand (demand minus supply) for building materials and supplies within Tractor Supply’s potential market – i.e. the areas from which it drives traffic – far surpasses unmet demand in the wider Home Improvement category’s potential market. This comparison – in just one of the retail categories that Tractor Supply occupies along with its peers – suggests substantial white space for the chain, driven by a footprint that prioritizes underserved markets rather than the more established ones where many industry counterparts compete.
And as Tractor Supply expanded between 2024 and 2025, unmet demand for building materials and supplies in the chain's potential market increased, even as unmet demand across the broader Home Improvement category declined. Together, these trends point to a site selection strategy that places Tractor Supply in high-demand regions where few retailers are positioned to fully meet consumer needs.
What can we learn from Tractor Supply’s strategy and 2025 performance? Sometimes, it pays to be smaller, and unlock demand away from the competitive landscapes where bigger players operate. By pairing an accelerated store-opening strategy with purposeful site selection, Tractor Supply appears well-positioned for sustained traffic growth.
Will Tractor Supply continue to build momentum in 2026? Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
_texasroadhouse_dine.png)
Recent traffic trends to major dining chains show the divergence within the full-service dining space going into 2026. While Brinker International's flagship brand Chili's Grill continued reaping the benefits of its popular food bundles and drinks specials, Maggiano's Little Italy – the company's more upscale concept – struggled to reach 2024 visitation levels in Q4 2025.
For both Dine Brands Global, Inc. and Texas Roadhouse, Inc., traffic changes were mostly due to storefleet reconfigurations. Dine Brands' three banners contracted in 2025, leading to overall visit declines at Applebee's and Fuzzy's (IHOP maintained stable traffic patterns) – but all three concepts outperformed in terms of average visits per venue as the company's rightsizing efforts appeared to be bearing fruit. Meanwhile, Texas Roadhouse, Inc. showed the opposite pattern as its three banners expanded, leading to overall visit growth – but average visits per venue decreased, suggesting that traffic gains were mostly driven by unit expansion.
These patterns reflect a more selective consumer environment heading into 2026, where growth is increasingly shaped by brand positioning, value perception, and disciplined fleet strategies rather than broad-based demand recovery. A closer look at monthly visit trends across major banners further illustrates these dynamics.
After leading the full-service restaurant category in 2024, Chili’s once again emerged as a standout performer in 2025, delivering consistent monthly visit gains despite a softer consumer environment. The brand has successfully established and maintained a clear value proposition, helping keep Chili’s top of mind for consumers seeking an affordable sit-down dining option
At the same time, recent monthly traffic trends suggest that sustaining this momentum into 2026 may require continued innovation, whether through refreshed bundled offerings, targeted promotions, or menu updates that reinforce value without eroding margins. But even if traffic growth moderates in the year ahead, maintaining the elevated visitation levels achieved over the past two years would still leave Chili’s in a notably strong competitive position within the full-service dining landscape.
Applebee’s and IHOP saw YoY declines in overall visits, but same-store traffic generally held up better – indicating that fleet rationalization helped stabilize per-restaurant demand. These trends point to the importance of right-sizing footprints and prioritizing unit-level productivity in a constrained consumer environment.
Visits to Texas Roadhouse in 2025 were up 2.1% compared to 2024, in part thanks to the chain's ongoing expansion. Same-store performance also remained positive for much of the year, suggesting that the larger store fleet can be supported by existing demand.
And even as traffic trends moderated toward the end of the year, the chain’s overall 2025 visit growth suggests an underlying demand that is strong enough to support Texas Roadhouse’s expanding footprint despite the most recent slowdown.
Overall, traffic patterns at these three major FSR players point to a more selective and competitive full-service dining environment heading into 2026, where broad-based demand recovery remains elusive. Brands that clearly communicate value or actively optimize their store fleets appear better positioned to defend store-level demand, while expansion-led growth models face increasing pressure to deliver stronger unit-level productivity. As consumer discretion remains constrained, execution and positioning – not scale alone – will likely define traffic winners in the year ahead.
Fore more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Over the past year, Fast-Casual & Quick-Service Restaurant (QSR) chains have thrived, consistently outperforming the Full-Service Dining segment with positive year-over-year (YoY) visit growth every quarter since 2023. In this white paper, we dive into the data for leading dining chains to take a closer look at what’s driving visitors to the QSR segment and what other dining categories can learn from fast-food’s success.
One of the key factors separating QSR chains – aptly known as “fast food” – from the rest of the dining industry is the speed at which diners can get a ready-to-eat meal in their hands. And within the QSR space, speed of service is one of the ways chains differentiate themselves from their competition.
Leading fast-food chains are investing heavily in technologies and systems designed to help them serve customers ever more quickly:
Taco Bell’s “Touch Display Kitchen System” is designed to optimize cooking operations and improve wait times, while the chain’s Go Mobile restaurant format seeks to alleviate bottlenecks in the drive-thru lane. Chick-fil-A also has dedicated channels for quick mobile order pick-up and is planning four-lane drive-thrus with second-floor kitchens to get meals out even faster. And to save time at the drive-thru, Wendy’s is experimenting with generative AI and developing an underground, robotic system to deliver digital orders to designated parking spots within seconds.
And location intelligence shows that all three chains are succeeding in reducing customer wait times. Over the past four years, Taco Bell, Chick-fil-A, and Wendy’s have seen steady increases in the share of visits to their venues lasting less than 10 minutes.
The data also suggests that investment in speed of service can increase overall visitation to QSR venues.
In late 2022, McDonald’s opened a to-go-only location outside of Dallas, TX with a lane dedicated to mobile order fulfillment via a conveyor belt. And in Q1 2024, this venue not only had a larger share of short visits compared to the other McDonald’s locations in the region, but also more visits compared to the McDonald’s average visits per venue in the Dallas-Fort Worth CBSA.
This provides further support for the power of fast order fulfillment to drive QSR visits, with customers motivated by the prospect of getting in and out quickly.
The success of the fast-food segment is even driving other restaurants to borrow typical QSR formats – especially during time slots when people are most likely to grab a bite to eat on the go.
In September 2023, full-service leader Applebee’s opened a new format: a fast casual location focusing on To Go orders in Deer Park, NY, featuring pick-up lockers for digital orders and limited dine-in options without table service.
And the new format is already attracting outsized weekday and lunchtime crowds. In Q1 2024, 20.5% of visits to the chain’s To Go venue took place during the 12:00 PM - 2:00 PM time slot, while the average Applebee’s in the New York-Newark-Jersey City CBSA received less than 10% of its daily visits during that daypart. The new restaurant also drew a significantly higher share of weekday visits than other nearby venues.
This suggests that takeaway-focused venues could help full-service chains grow their visit share during weekdays and the coveted lunch rush, when consumers may be less inclined to have a sit-down meal.
An additional factor contributing to QSR and Fast Casual success in 2024 may be the rise of chicken-based chains. Chicken is a versatile ingredient that has remained relatively affordable, which could be contributing to its growing popularity and the rapid expansion of several chicken chains.
Comparing the relative visit share (not including delivery) of various sub-segments within the wider Fast Casual & QSR space showed that the share of visits to chains with chicken-based menus has increased steadily between 2019 and 2023: In Q1 2024, 15.3% of Fast Casual & QSR visits were to a chicken restaurant concept, compared to just 13.4% in Q1 2019.
The strength of chicken-based concepts is also evident when comparing average visits per venue at leading chicken chains with the wider Fast Casual & QSR average.
Both Chick-fil-A, the nation’s predominant chicken chain, and Raising Cane’s, a rapidly expanding player in the fast-food chicken space, are receiving significantly more visits per venue than their Fast Casual & QSR peers: In Q1 2024, Raising Cane’s and Chick-fil-A restaurants saw an average of 153.0% and 237.7% more visits per venue, respectively, compared to the combined Fast Casual & QSR industries average.
The elevated traffic at chicken chains likely plays a part in their profitability per restaurant relative to other Fast Casual & QSR concepts with more sizable fleets.
QSR and Fast-Casual chains are also particularly adept at generating seasonal visit spikes through unique Limited Time Offers and holiday promotions adapted to the calendar.
Arby’s recently launched a 2 for $6 sandwich promotion on February 1st, with two of the three sandwich options on promotion being fish-based in an apparent attempt to entice diners eschewing meat in observance of Lent. The company also brought back a specialty fish sandwich, likely with the goal of further appealing to the Lent-observing demographic.
The offers seem to have driven significant traffic spikes, with foot traffic during the promotion period significantly higher than the January daily visit average. And traffic was particularly elevated during Lent – which this year fell on Wednesday, February 14th through Thursday, March 28th, with visits spiking on Fridays when those observing are most likely to seek out fish-based meals.
Some of the elevated visits in the second half of Q1 may be attributed to the comparison to a weaker January across the dining segment. But the success of the fish-forward promotion specifically during Lent suggests that the company’s calendar-appropriate LTO played a major role in driving visits to the chain.
Shorter-term promotions – even those lasting just a single day – can also drive major visit spikes.
Since 1991, White Castle has transformed its fast-food restaurants into a reservation-only, “fine-dining” experience for dinner on Valentine's Day. In 2024, Valentine’s Day fell on a Wednesday, and White Castle’s sit-down event drove a 11.8% visit increase relative to the average Wednesday in Q1 2024 and a 3.9% visit increase compared to the overall Q1 2024 daily average.
The elevated visit numbers over Valentine’s Day are even more impressive when considering that a full-service dining room can accommodate fewer visitors than the drive-thrus and counter service of White Castle’s typical QSR configuration. The spike in February 14th visits may also be attributed to an increased number of diners showing up throughout the day to take in the Valentine’s Day buzz.
QSR and Fast-Casual dining are having a moment. And the data shows that a combination of factors – including fast and efficient service, the rising popularity of chicken-based dining concepts, and effective LTOs – are all playing a part in the categories’ recent success.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
The first American mall opened in 1956 and reinvented retail – within a decade there were over 4,500 malls across the country. But a rise in e-commerce coupled with the oversaturation of mall options across the country paved the way for mall visits to slow, and many predicted that malls would go the way of the dinosaur.
But although malls were hit hard over the past few years as lockdowns and rising costs contributed to a significant drop in foot traffic, shopping centers have proven resilient. Leading players in the space have consistently reinvented themselves and explored alternate ways to draw in crowds – and as inflation cools, malls are bouncing back as well.
This white paper analyzes the Placer.ai Shopping Center Industry – a collection of over 3000 shopping centers across the United States – as well as the Placer.ai’s Mall Indexes, which focus on top-tier Indoor Malls, Open-Air Shopping Centers, Outlet Malls. The report examines how visits are shifting and where behaviors are changing – and where they’re staying the same – and takes a closer look at the strategies malls are using to attract shoppers in 2024.
Malls experienced a rocky few years as pandemic-related restrictions and economic headwinds kept many shoppers at home, and visits to all mall types in 2021 were between 10.7% to 15.3% lower than in 2019. But foot traffic trends improved significantly in 2022 – likely due to the fading out of COVID restrictions.
By 2023, visits to the wider Shopping Center Industry were just 2.3% lower than they had been in 2019, and the visit gaps for Indoor Malls and Open-Air Shopping Centers had narrowed to 5.8% and 1.0% lower, respectively. Outlet Malls also saw visits ticking up once again, with the visit gap compared to 2019 narrowing to 8.5% in 2023 after having dropped to 11.3% in 2022. This more sustained foot traffic dip may stem from consumers’ desire to save on gas costs or the impacts of inclement weather. However, the narrowing visit gaps suggest that shoppers are increasingly returning to the segment, and foot traffic may yet pick up again in 2024.
COVID-19 impacted more than just visit numbers – it also changed in-store consumer behavior. And now, with the Coronavirus a distant memory for many, some of these pandemic-acquired habits are fading away, while other shifts appear to be holding steady.
One visit metric that appears to have reverted to pre-COVID norms is the share of weekday vs. weekend visits. Weekday visits had increased in 2021 – at the height of COVID – as consumers found themselves with more free time midweek, but the balance of weekday vs. weekend visits has now returned to 2019 levels.
In 2023, the Shopping Center Industry, which includes a number of grocery-anchored centers along with open-air shopping centers and their relatively large variety of dining options, saw the largest share of weekday visits, followed by Indoor Malls. Outlet Malls received the lowest share of weekday visits – around 55% – likely due to the longer distances usually required to drive to these malls, making them ideal destinations for weekend day trips.
While the day of the week that people frequent malls hasn't changed significantly since 2019, there is one notable difference in mall foot traffic pre- and post-pandemic. Almost all mall categories are seeing fewer during the late morning-midday and late evening dayparts, while the amount of people heading to a mall in the afternoon and early evening has increased.
In 2019, Indoor Malls saw 20.1% of visits occurring between 10:00am and 1:00pm, but that share decreased to 18.6% in 2023. Meanwhile, the share of visits between 4:00-7:00 pm rose from 29.1% in 2019 to 32.4% in 2023. Similar patterns repeated across all shopping center categories, with the 1:00-4:00pm daypart seeing a slight increase, the 4:00-7:00 pm daypart receiving the largest boost and the 7:00-10:00 pm daypart seeing the largest drop. So although changes in work habits have not altered the weekly visit distribution, it seems like hybrid workers are taking advantage of their new, and likely more flexible schedules to frequent malls in the afternoon instead of reserving their mall trips for after work. The significant numbers of Americans moving to the suburbs in recent years may also be contributing to the decline of late night visits, with these suburban newcomers perhaps less likely to spend time outside the house during the evening hours.
Although malls have enjoyed consistent growth in foot traffic over the past two years, visits still remain below 2019 levels. How can shopping centers attract more shoppers and recover their pre-COVID foot traffic?
Some malls are attracting visitors by looking beyond traditional retail with offerings such as gyms, amusement parks, and even entertainment complexes. And with more traditional mall anchors shutting their doors than ever, even smaller shopping centers are adding lifestyle experiences options in newly vacant spaces – and incorporating unique elements into traditional retail spaces.
In September 2023, the Chandler Fashion Center in Arizona opened a giant SCHEELS store in its mall. The 250,000-square-foot sporting goods store boasts more than just sneakers – visitors can ride on a 45-foot Ferris Wheel or marvel at a 16,000-gallon saltwater aquarium. And monthly visitation data to the mall reveals the power of this new retail destination, with foot traffic to the mall experiencing a major jump from October 2023 onward. The excitement of the new SCHEELS seems to be sustaining itself, with February 2024 visits 23.3% higher than the same period of 2023.
Restaurants, too, can help bring people into malls. The Southgate Mall in Missoula, Montana, experienced a jump in monthly visits following the opening of a Texas Roadhouse steakhouse in November 2023. Customers seem to be receptive to this new addition – the mall saw a sustained increase in foot traffic from November 2023 onward, with year-over-year (YoY) visit growth of 17.0% in February 2024.
The addition of Texas Roadhouse provides Missoula residents with a family-friendly dining experience while tapping into the evergreen popularity of steakhouses.
Malls that don’t want to choose between adding a dining option and incorporating a novel entertainment venue can blend the two and go the “eatertainment” route. One shopping center – North Carolina’s Cross Creek Mall – is proving just how effective these concepts can be for a mall looking to grow its foot traffic.
Eatertainment destination Main Event opened at the mall in August 2023, bringing laser tag, video games, virtual reality, and 18 bowling lanes with it. Main Event’s opening also provided a boost in foot traffic to the mall – monthly visits to Cross Creek Mall surged following the opening. And this foot traffic boost sustained itself, particularly into the colder winter months – January and February 2024 saw YoY growth of 12.3% and 25.1%, respectively.
Integrating entertainment options at malls is one strategy for driving visits, but there are plenty of other ways to bring people through the doors. Pop-ups have been a particularly popular option of late, especially as more online brands venture into the world of physical retail. And malls, which typically tend to leave a small portion of their storefronts vacant, can be the perfect place to host a retailer for a limited time.
One brand – Shein – has been a leader in the pop-up space, bringing its affordable fashion to malls in Las Vegas, Seattle, and Indianapolis. These short-term residencies – typically no longer than three to four days – allow shoppers to try the popular online retailer’s products before they buy.
Shein has enjoyed success with its mall residencies, evidenced by the foot traffic at the Woodfield Mall in Illinois, which hosted a three-day pop-up from December 15-17, 2023. The retail event was hugely popular, with visits reaching Super Saturday (the last weekend before Christmas) proportions – even though this year’s Super Saturday coincided with Christmas Eve Eve (December 23rd) and drove unusually high traffic spikes.
Shein pop-ups are typically very short – no more than three to four days. This format, known for creating a sense of urgency among shoppers, has proven powerful in driving store visits. But can longer-lasting pop-ups find success as well?
Foot traffic data from pop-ups hosted by Swedish home furnisher IKEA suggests that yes – longer-term residencies can be successful. The chain is working on growing its presence across the country, particularly in malls. To that end, IKEA has been experimenting with mall pop-ups, beginning with a six-month residency at the Rosedale Center in Roseville, Minnesota.
IKEA opened its store on February 16, 2024, and visits to the mall increased significantly immediately after. The first week of the pop-up saw a 12.9% growth in visits compared to a January 1-7, 2024 baseline. And by the third week of the pop-up, there were still noticeably more people frequenting the mall than before the launch.
The luxury retail segment has had a great few years, and malls are tapping into this popularity. Nearly 40% of new high-end store openings in 2023 were in mall settings, many in Sunbelt states like Texas, Florida, and Arizona, perhaps driven in part by demand from an influx of wealthy newcomers to those states.
A comparison of upscale shopping malls to standard shopping centers across Sunbelt States reveals just how popular high-end retail is in the region. Malls with a high percentage of luxury and designer stores like the Lenox Square Mall in Georgia or the NorthPark Center in Texas saw considerably more YoY visit growth than the average visit growth for shopping centers in their respective states.
Lenox Square Mall saw foot traffic increase 31.2% YoY in 2023, while shopping centers in Georgia saw their visits grow by just 2.7% YoY in the same period. Similar trends repeated in Louisiana, Arizona, California, and Florida. And while some of this growth may be due to the resilience of these wealthier shoppers in the face of inflation, one thing is clear – luxury is here to stay.
Malls are thriving, carving out spaces for themselves in a competitive retail environment. By prioritizing experiential retail, entertainment, pop-up shops, and luxury offerings, shopping centers across the country are remaining relevant in a rapidly changing retail world. And mall operators that recognize the power of innovation and evolve along with their customers can hope to meet with continued success.
Consumer preferences have shifted over the past five years. COVID-19 and inflation impacted shopping habits and behaviors across the retail space – and while some of the changes were short-lived, others appear to have more staying power. Now, with memories of the lockdowns fading, and as the inflation that plagued much of 2022 and 2023 wanes (hopefully), we analyzed location intelligence data to understand what the retail and dining landscape looks like today.
This report leverages historical and current foot traffic data and trade area analysis to better understand the current retail and dining landscape and reveal consumer trends likely to shape 2024 and beyond. Which segments have benefited most from the shifts of the past five years? How are legacy brands staying on top of current shopping and dining trends? Where are people shopping and dining in 2024? And what characterizes the modern consumer?
One of the major retail stories of the past five years has been the rise of Discount & Dollar Stores. Category leaders such as Dollar General and Dollar Tree expanded significantly prior to the pandemic, which helped these essential retailers attract large numbers of customers during the initial months of lockdowns.
During this period, many Discount & Dollar Stores invested in more than just their store count – several leading chains also expanded their grocery selection, allowing these companies to compete more directly for Grocery and Superstore shoppers. As Discount & Dollar Stores continued growing their store fleets – and as the pandemic gave way to inflation concerns – shoppers looking for more affordable consumables options gravitated to this segment.
Location intelligence shows that the rapidly opening stores and stocking them with fresh groceries is working – since 2019, Discount & Dollar Stores have slowly but steadily grown their visit share relative to the Grocery and Superstore sectors.
In 2019, Discount & Dollar retailers captured 15.1% of the visit share between the three categories analyzed. This number grew by a full percentage point between 2019 and 2020 and the trend has continued, with the category enjoying 16.6% of the relative visit share in 2023. Meanwhile, Superstores’ relative visit share decreased during the same period, dropping from 41.7% in 2019 to 40.0% in 2023, while the relative visit share of Grocery Stores remained mostly stable.
Still, consumers are not giving up their regular Grocery or Superstore run quite yet – over 80% of combined visits to Grocery Stores, Superstore, and Discount & Dollar Store sectors still go to Grocery Stores and Superstores. But the data does indicate that some shoppers are likely choosing to shop for groceries and other consumables at Discount & Dollar Stores. And CPG companies and category managers looking to reach customers where they shop may want to consider adding Discount & Dollar Stores to their distribution channels.
The key question that remains is how much of the gained visit share can the Discount & Dollar leaders maintain as the economic environment improves. This metric will be the strongest sign of whether the short term gains made within a favorable context drove long term value.
Superstores’ visit share may be shrinking somewhat in the face of Discount & Dollar Stores’ growth. But diving into the Superstore leaders reveals that these macro-shifts are having a different impact on the various sub-categories within the wider Superstore segment.
Walmart remains the undisputed Superstore leader thanks to its 61.8% share of overall visits to Walmart, Target, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s in 2023. But 61.8% is still lower than the 66.3% relative visits share that the Superstore behemoth enjoyed in 2019. Meanwhile, Target grew its relative visit share from 17.3% in 2019 to 19.3% in 2023, while the combined visit share of the three membership club brands increased from 16.5% in 2019 to 18.9% in the same period.
Some of the shift in visit share can be attributed to Walmart closing several locations while Target, Costco Sam's Club, and BJ's expanded their fleet – but other factors are likely at play.
Costco and Target attract the most affluent clientele of the five chains analyzed, which could explain why these chains have seen significant growth at a time when many consumers are operating with tighter budgets. The success of these companies also suggests that there are enough consumers willing to spend beyond the basics – as shown with Target’s Stanley Cup success (more on that below) – to support a varied product selection that includes higher-priced options. It also speaks to a high upside on a per customer basis for chains that have proven effective at providing higher-end products alongside those with a value orientation. This speaks to a unique capacity to effectively address “the middle” – an audience that is defined neither solely by value-seeking nor by high-end product proclivities.
Sam's Club and BJ’s also give shoppers an opportunity to save by buying in bulk and cutting down on shopping trips – and related gas expenses – which may also have contributed to their success. The increase in the relative visit share of wholesale clubs indicates that today’s consumer might react positively to more options for bulk purchases in non-warehouse club chains as well.
Retail is not the only sector that has seen slow and steady shifts in recent years – the dining space was also significantly impacted by pandemic restrictions of 2020-2021 and the inflation of 2022-2023. Location intelligence reveals shifts in both the types of establishments favored by consumers and in the in-store behaviors of dining consumers.
Convenience stores’ dining options have evolved in recent years, with today’s consumers heading to Wawa for a freshly made specialty hoagie or to Buc-ee’s to enjoy the chain’s variety of specialty snacks.
Analyzing the visit distribution among C-Stores and other discretionary dining categories (Fast Food and QSR, Restaurants, and Breakfast & Coffee, not including Grocery and Superstores) showcases the growing role of C-Stores in the dining space. Between 2019 and 2023, C-stores' visit share relative to the other discretionary dining categories jumped from 24.2% to 27.1%. The relative visit share of Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries & Dessert Shops also grew slightly during the period. Meanwhile, Restaurants’ relative visit share dropped from 13.8% to 11.7% and Fast Food & QSR’s dipped from 51.8% to 50.6%.
Several factors are likely driving this evolution. Most Restaurants shuttered temporarily at the height of the pandemic while C-Stores remained open – and consumers likely took the opportunity to get acquainted with C-Stores’ food-away-from-home options. And many C-Stores expanded their footprint in recent years, while some dining chains downsized, which likely also contributed to the changes in relative visit share between the segments.
But the continued growth of C-Stores between 2021 and 2022, and again between 2022 and 2023, indicates that many diners are now embracing C-Store food out of choice and not just due to necessity. The rise of the Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries & Dessert Shops category alongside C-Stores in the past five years may also highlight the current appetite for affordable grab-and-go food options. And with C-Store operators embracing the shifts brought on by the pandemic and actively expanding their food options, diners are increasingly likely to consider C-Stores for their portable meals and packaged snacks.
C-Store visitors are increasingly receptive to trying new products at their local c-store. So how can C-Store operators and CPG companies determine which products will best appeal to customers? Analyzing the trade areas of seven major chains – 7-Eleven, Wawa, Casey’s, QuikTrip, Cumberland Farms, Plaid Pantry, and Buc-ee’s – using the Spatial.ai: FollowGraph dataset reveals significant variance in food preferences between the chains’ visitor bases.
For instance, Plaid Pantry visitors were 55% more likely than the nationwide average to fall into the “Asian Food Enthusiasts” segment in 2023, in contrast with Casey’s visitors who are 7% less likely to belong to this psychographic. Residents of the trade areas of QuikTrip and Buc-ee’s rank highest for "Fried Chicken Lovers," while Cumberland Farms and Plaid Pantry visitors register the least interest. C-Store operators, QSR franchisees, packaged food manufacturers, and other stakeholders can leverage these insights to optimize food offerings, identify promising partnership opportunities, and find new venues for product testing.
While C-Stores stores may be the exciting story of the day, Full-Service Restaurants continue to play a major role in the wider dining landscape. And despite the ongoing economic headwinds, several dining brands and categories are seeing growth – although location intelligence suggests that in-restaurant behavior may be changing as well.
For example, the hourly visits distribution for leading steakhouse chains has shifted over the past five years: Between 2019 and 2023, Texas Roadhouse, LongHorn Steakhouse, and Outback Steakhouse all saw a jump in the share of visits occurring between 2:00 PM and 6:00 PM – not typical steak eating hours.
Outback and Texas Roadhouse offer early bird dinner specials while LongHorn has a happy hour, so some diners may be choosing to visit these restaurant chains earlier in the evening in order to stretch their eating out budget. Other consumers who are still working from home most of the week may also be eating on a more flexible schedule, and these diners may be having more late lunches in 2023 when compared to 2019. Restaurant operators, drink providers, and menu developers may want to adapt their offerings to this emerging mid-afternoon rush.
The data examined above shows changes within key retail and dining segments over the past five years. So what do these shifts reveal about today’s consumer? What are shoppers and diners looking for in 2024?
The beginning of 2024 was marked by an Arctic blast and plunging temperatures. Consumers, unsurprisingly, hunkered down at home – and foot traffic to many retail categories took a dip. But the declines were short-lived, and by the fourth week of January 2024 foot traffic had rebounded across major categories.
Still, zooming into weekly visit performance for key retail and dining categories for the first eight weeks of the year reveals that the cold did not impact all segments equally – and the subsequent resurgence boosted some sectors more than others.
Discount & Dollar Stores had the strongest start to 2024, with YoY visits up almost every week since the start of the year, and the category showing even more substantial growth once the cold spell subsided. The Grocery category also succeeded in exceeding 2023 weekly visit levels almost every week, although its visit increases were more subdued than those in the Discount & Dollar Store segment.
Superstore and C-Store experienced relatively muted YoY declines in early January and saw significant weekly visit growth as Q1 progressed, with C-Stores outperforming Superstores by late January 2024. And Dining – which suffered a particularly heavy blow in early 2024 – also rebounded with gusto, offering another strong indicator of the resilience of today’s consumer.
Like in the wider Dining industry, weekly YoY visits to the QSR segment quickly rebounded following the unusual cold of the first three weeks of January 2024. And three chains from across the QSR spectrum – legacy chain Wingstop, rapidly expanding Raising Cane’s, and regional cult favorite Whataburger – are seeing particularly strong foot traffic performances.
Diving deeper into the location intelligence reveals that the three chains’ success may be due in part to their visitor base composition: The trade areas of all three brands included a larger share of four-person households compared to the nationwide average of 24.6%.
Wingstop, Raising Cane’s, and Whataburger’s menus all include larger orders to create shareable meals. And larger households seem to be particularly receptive to dining options that allow them to save money, which could explain the significant share of 4+ person households that visit these chains.
The success of these diverse QSR chains also indicates that, although larger households may have more expenses – and might therefore be more impacted by inflation – they can also drive visits to brands that cater to their needs. So dining operators and food manufacturers looking to attract family demographics may consider offering larger meal combos or larger packaging to help larger households splurge on affordable luxuries without breaking the bank.
Perhaps the most significant sign that today’s consumers are still willing to spend money on non-essentials is the recent success of the Starbucks X Stanley “Pink Cup”. The cup has caused such a sensation that re-sellers ask for up to six times the original $50 price – and for those unwilling to shell out the big bucks on the cup, enterprising cup owners offer photo shoots with the product for $5.
The Starbucks X Stanley “Pink Cup” was released on January 3rd, 2024 and could only be bought at Starbucks kiosks located inside a Target. Viral videos of the release circulated on social media, showing eager crowds lining up early in the morning for the chance to be first to grab their cup. Location intelligence reveals that these early morning visits were significant enough to change Target’s typical hourly visit pattern.
Foot traffic between 7:00 AM and 9:00 AM on January 3rd, 2024 accounted for 4.4% of daily visits, compared to 2.6% of daily visits occurring during that time slot on a typical Wednesday in January or February. And demand for the pink Stanley cup drove a spike in daily visits as well – overall daily visits to Target on January 3rd were 18.7% higher than the average Wednesday visits in January and February 2024.
The visit trends to Target on Pink Cup Day are particularly impressive given the freezing weather in some regions of the country and because consumers were coming off the holiday shopping season. And the success of the cup shows that 2024’s shopper is willing to show up – especially for a viral product. Creating buzzy marketing campaigns, then, may be the key to driving retail success.
The retail changes of the past few years have left their mark on how people shop, eat, and spend. And keeping ahead of these changes allows companies and product managers to ensure they can tailor their offerings – whether product selection or marketing campaigns – to the right audience.
