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Quick-service restaurants have faced significant headwinds, even as value offerings and limited-time promotions have helped stabilize traffic across the segment. Still, the largest restaurant groups are finding ways to outperform.
The latest visit data shows Yum! Brands and Restaurant Brands International (RBI) pulling ahead of the category – with growth in both cases driven by their leading brands and supported by the strength of their fast-casual concepts.
In Q1 2026, traffic to QSRs rose just 0.1% year over year (YoY), as increasingly cautious consumers pulled back on dining out. Against this backdrop, Yum! Brands’ 2.1% increase in overall portfolio traffic and 3.0% rise in average visits per location represent meaningful outperformance. While RBI lagged slightly in overall traffic, it still modestly outpaced the segment average in per-location traffic.
Diving into brand-level data, Taco Bell – which accounted for nearly three quarters of total Yum! visits in Q1 2026 – remained the company’s clear growth engine. A combination of strategic value pricing, ongoing menu innovation, and a strong digital loyalty program continued to drive same-store traffic growth and broaden the brand’s appeal across income cohorts – including higher-income consumers, families, and younger diners alike.
The Habit Burger Grill, Yum!’s fast-casual concept, also performed well in Q1, with same-store visits up in the mid- to high-single digits throughout the quarter. KFC, meanwhile, in the midst of a turnaround, saw mixed same-store visit trends – as did Pizza Hut, currently the subject of a strategic review.
On the RBI side, QSR leader Burger King continued to lead performance. After reporting a 2.6% same-store sales increase in Q4 2025, the chain delivered a 1.4% YoY rise in overall traffic in Q1 2026, with same-store visits increasing in both February and March. This momentum likely reflects ongoing execution of RBI’s “Reclaim the Flame” strategy, alongside ongoing menu innovation – including the January launch of the Ultimate Steakhouse Whopper, which was met with strong consumer response.
Fast-casual Firehouse Subs, which similarly posted a 2.4% increase in same-store sales in Q4 2025, also remained a bright spot in Q1, with positive same-store visit growth in January and February, and March performance roughly in line with the prior year.
By contrast, Tim Hortons continued to see traffic softness in the U.S., though ongoing expansion plans suggest confidence in its long-term opportunity. And Popeyes faced continued pressure, with RBI actively working to reposition the brand.
Both Yum! and RBI are successfully navigating a challenging QSR environment, driven by the strength of their flagship brands, solid performance in fast-casual concepts, and ongoing investments to stabilize underperforming chains. Will the companies be able to sustain this momentum in the coming months?
Follow Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
After the rollercoaster performance of the retail industry in 2025, the first quarter of 2026 would serve as a barometer for consumer sentiment, resilience and industry stability. In actuality, this past quarter has once again provided obstacles, including winter weather, geo political conflict and retail bankruptcies. However, even for discretionary categories, the outlook still remains positive amidst the uncertainty.
Foot traffic to major brick-and-mortar retail chains were up 1.5% year-over-year Q1 2026. And while some of that growth is due to somewhat easy comparisons, with discretionary industries stagnating over the past few years – especially in the first quarter of last year – the slight increase also suggests that some discretionary categories are beginning to regain traction. And while non-discretionary industries continue to outperform their general merchandise counterparts, there is still plenty to celebrate over the last three months.
The visitation trends this past quarter underscore that consumer resilience remains strong, as consumerism doesn’t take a backseat to economic uncertainty. All of the macro-economic trends point otherwise, with unemployment and layoffs rising, debt accumulating and the housing market cooling, but consumers are still shopping. Retail bifurcation continues, with value based offerings still driving much of the growth, but consumers in the U.S. can’t seem to talk themselves out of being influenced to buy.
Digging into some of the top trends and performances of the quarter, it is easier to see where consumers are putting their attention, and in turn how those categories highlight the shifts in consumer behavior.
One of the largest overall stories of the quarter was the intense winter weather that span across the majority of the country. Winter Storm Fern, which hit the eastern half of the U.S. during the last week of January, had a material impact on foot traffic across categories, in particular non-essential store trips. The week prior (January 19th) brought stock-ups and pre-emptive trips, while the following week brought temporarily shuttered stores and fewer trips in many states. While winter weather has always created disruptions for shoppers, this year felt particularly impactful with more store closures than in previous years.
In times of uncertainty, consumers crave hobbies and experiences that are celebratory and help them to feel good. Participating in or picking-up a new hobby gives consumers some agency and also allows them to connect to others in their communities or through social media. The power of the hobby began to show up on foot traffic in 2025, and the trend has only accelerated faster in the first quarter.
Michaels, Paper Source and Barnes & Noble have all grown traffic in the first quarter of this year, truly underscoring that there is still a place for discretionary spending with today’s consumer. These retailers have all succeeded in building a foundation for shoppers to see these visits as indispensable. This could be due in part to the experiences and services that these retailers offer alongside tangible products, such as stationary & invitations, author signings and readings, and framing service or classes, which help separate a visit from a simple transaction.
The consolidation of retail banners has also benefitted the major names in the hobby, gift and craft category, particularly in the case of Michaels. But, less competition in today’s retail industry doesn’t instantly signal success; these chains have had to define their reason to exist in a digital-first shopping world.
The home improvement category is another area that has reversed its 2025 trend in the first quarter. This category did benefit from favorable comparable periods, but its growth also reflects larger shifts amongst consumers.
Both Lowe’s & Home Depot posted growth in store visits in Q1 2026, a sign that traffic from professionals and do-it-yourself consumers are heading back into building and repair. This traffic increase is all the more impressive given the housing market's current uncertainty as sales slump amidst lower inventory and rising costs – which in some cases may push consumers to pull back on moving or upgrade plans.
It was anticipated that 2025 might bring about a replacement cycle for those who invested in their homes during the pandemic, whether through home improvement or decorating, but this prediction never fully materialized. Now, the positive traffic may indicate that some of that demand may have been delayed, shifting some of the consumption into 2026 as consumers are less bullish on the housing and job markets, and trying to improve what is currently in their possession.
Winter weather was also a factor in the growth for the major retailers, as consumers looked to prepare for storms in advance or outfit their homes with generators, snow removal equipment and other essentials. Looking at the week leading up to winter storm Fern, both major chains benefited from the increased stooking up.
Looking ahead to the second quarter, home improvement retail demand can be subject to volatility in the market. If geopolitical conflict continues and oil prices remain elevated, the cost of home materials could rise and cool the demand for the category once again.
One of the most watched categories as a barometer for discretionary demand has been apparel. It is a category that, in many ways, best exemplifies the current bifurcation of the retail industry based on consumer priorities. Value remains the north star of the category, while full-price chains in apparel, sporting goods and department stores struggle to find their place in the crowd. Even the luxury market has stalled over the last nine months, despite the resilience of higher-income households. Apparel continues to be the bellwether for demand.
Looking at the performance of the category in the first quarter, off-price was once again the winning sector, comping its strong performance last year. Even winter weather didn’t deter shoppers too much, as they looked to off-price chains for key items and winter gear. The frequency of visits to off-price retailers remains a key to their success; repeat visitation is higher for these chains, which helps to boost overall traffic.
Apparel chains and sporting goods retailers fared similarly, with slower traffic overall. Within these subcategories, shifting athleisure preference, value orientation and digital focus all play a role in the tepid performance. There are still some bright spots, with Gap Inc. and Victoria’s Secret improving their business.
A major headline early in the first quarter was the announced bankruptcy and restructuring of Saks Global. As part of the restructuring, the off-price based Saks Off Fifth banner has been shuttered as well as some full line Neiman Marcus and Saks Fifth Avenue locations.
The luxury market has not been immune to the shift in consumer behavior over the past year, and the first quarter of this year has shown a deceleration of traffic to luxury department stores, even despite the gains made last year from brands like Bloomingdale’s and Nordstrom. The stall in traffic to this category reverses much of what happened in 2025, and it will be interesting to see if shoppers return in the coming months.
Beauty, despite some small setbacks in early 2025, continues its dominance as the category to watch for growth. The category began to rebound in the middle of last year, and traffic grew in the first quarter of 2026. Beauty has maintained its momentum through innovation, in-store experience and shifting consumer needs, as the category responds seamlessly to its shoppers.
Major chains like Ulta Beauty and Bath & Body Works led the charge in terms of performance, while smaller brands like Bluemercury faced slower traffic trends. Beauty has always been a category that thrives in economic uncertainty, and with the expansion of the store footprints over the last few years, beauty retailers have been ready for the increased attention.
As mentioned earlier, consumers still want to shop despite lower consumer sentiment, and the dopamine boost of a beauty retail visit can sustain shoppers who might otherwise be trying to limit their spend. Small indulgences are still top of mind for consumers, which certainly will continue to benefit beauty throughout the remainder of the year.
Finally, at the end of the first quarter, it was announced that digitally native footwear retailer, Allbirds, would sell for only $39 million, despite its prior valuation at $4 billion. Digitally native brands have been expanding store fleets once again, but Allbirds serves as a discretionary cautionary tale.
The footwear category has always been dominated by fashion trends; one day a brand is on fire, the next day it’s almost extinct. Allbirds followed a similar trend, with rapid retail expansion during the pre-pandemic period.
As has been the case, remaining relevant to audiences is still a challenge, even for buzz-worthy digitally native brands. Building lasting relationships with shoppers extends beyond being the product of the moment, and many of these brands are pivoting to focus on planting deeper roots.
Digitally native brands have a right to exist in discretionary retail. In many ways, they are responsible for much of the innovation that has come out of general merchandise categories over the past decade. But, there is still a lot of risk in the business of building new brands, and in the case of Allbirds, diversification that might be needed to keep shoppers coming back.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Traffic to brick and mortar retail chains remained essentially flat in March 2026 following a period of steady year-over-year (YoY) gains – although calendar shifts may account for some of the apparent slowdown.
Saturday is typically the busiest day for in-store shopping, and March 2026 had one fewer Saturday than March 2025, which likely weighed on overall foot traffic, as average daily visits on each weekday in March 2026 were all higher than the monthly average. At the same time, the increase in average visits per weekday on most days was smaller than the YoY monthly growth in January and February – suggesting that consumer caution may have also played a role in the March traffic trends. April data should bring more clarity as to how much of the slowdown was driven by a calendar shift versus emerging consumer caution.
Meanwhile, traffic to e-commerce distribution centers skyrocketed in March – with visits rising 16.2% compared to March 2025 – perhaps helped by a different calendar shift. The shift in Easter – from April 20 in 2025 to April 5 in 2026 – likely pulled some holiday shopping into late March, boosting activity.
On the manufacturing side, foot traffic to plants remained relatively flat in March 2026, rising just 0.7% YoY nationwide.
The March ISM Manufacturing PMI showed growth in new orders and production compared to February, while employment declined – pulling foot traffic trends in opposite directions. The muted visit growth suggests facilities are maintaining operational intensity even as headcounts shrink, pointing to manufacturing activity becoming less labor-dependent, with output continuing to drive facility usage despite subdued hiring.
March’s data suggests that underlying consumer and industrial activity remains resilient, with calendar dynamics distorting headline trends rather than signaling a true slowdown. Looking ahead, as calendar effects normalize, retail and logistics activity may better reflect this underlying strength, while manufacturing continues its shift toward higher output with leaner workforces.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Dining closed out Q1 2026 on uneven ground. While February offered renewed momentum across segments, macroeconomic headwinds continue to influence dining behavior – putting some categories on more favorable growth trajectories than others. We dive into the data below.
Quarterly dining data underscores a clear standout. Fast casual posted a 3.1% year-over-year (YoY) increase in Q1 2026 visits – outperforming other dining formats and signaling strong demand for the segment.
The trend likely reflects the current economic climate. Fast casual’s perception of quality, at a price point still below full-service dining, appears to be resonating as consumers weigh discretionary spending.
By contrast, traffic for the QSR segment remained essentially on par with last year in Q1 2026 – a sign that LTOs and value offerings are helping maintain traffic, even as the segment faces pressure from lower-income pullback.
Lastly, full-service restaurants showed the weakest performance, with visits declining 1.4% YoY in Q1 2026 – potentially reflecting softer demand as consumers scale back on higher-cost dining occasions.
A broader view of monthly visit patterns provides additional context to these trends.
The graph below shows that between April and October 2025, QSR traffic was essentially flat or below the previous year’s levels, likely a reflection of consumer sentiment regarding inflation and a degraded value perception in fast food.
But during the same window, full-service restaurants mustered several YoY visit lifts, suggesting that higher-income consumers continued to support sit-down dining – even as more price-sensitive audiences reeled from inflation.
However, the landscape began to shift toward the end of 2025. QSR trends improved, reflecting refreshed value strategies and LTOs designed to re-engage cost-conscious diners.
At the same time, full-service performance weakened. After a sharp dip in December 2025, the segment saw only a partial recovery before declining again in March 2026 – likely influenced by one fewer Saturday compared to March 2025. But overall, this pattern suggests that sustained economic pressure may be prompting even higher-income consumers to moderate discretionary spending in recent months.
Fast casual, meanwhile, has maintained an upward growth trajectory throughout the last twelve months, reinforcing its role as a middle-ground that can succeed in dynamic economic conditions.
Examining visit patterns by day of week reveals another layer of evolving consumer dining behavior amid ongoing economic uncertainty.
Fast casual’s Q1 2026 strength was driven primarily by weekday traffic, which rose 4.7% YoY, alongside a more modest 1.3% increase on weekends. This imbalance suggests that fast casual’s momentum is tied to workweek routines – lunch breaks, quick dinners, and on-the-go meals – where demand for convenience and perceived quality intersect. In the current macroeconomic environment, these habitual visits appear more resilient than discretionary weekend outings.
QSR’s visits followed a more muted version of this pattern. Weekday visits rose 0.6%, while weekend traffic dipped slightly (-0.4%), indicating that mid-week promotions may be sustaining convenience-driven demand, but basic value may be less effective at driving weekend traffic.
Full service visits, meanwhile, declined across both weekparts, with a steeper drop on weekends (-1.9%) than weekdays (-0.6%). Weekends – when busy schedules free-up for socializing and celebrations – are a cornerstone for sit-down dining, and this gap may point to the increased vulnerability of the full-service segment as consumers reassess discretionary spend.
The data points to a dining environment increasingly defined by value – with nuance in how that value is delivered.
QSR’s steady performance underscores the importance of affordability, particularly for budget-conscious consumers, while fast casual’s growth suggests that value is increasingly defined by price, quality, and convenience that justify spend.
On the other hand, full-service restaurants, and their elevated experience, appear more exposed to value-conscious decision-making. If economic pressures persist, more discretionary, sit-down dining occasions may come under greater scrutiny from consumers.
For more dining insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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After a weather-disrupted start to the year, March delivered a clear signal that the office recovery is once again moving forward. The latest data points to a seasonal rebound alongside tightening workplace policies translating into sustained return-to-office (RTO) gains.
March 2026 marked the busiest March for office visits since the onset of COVID, with traffic just 26.5% below 2019 levels.
Part of this strength was calendar-driven, as the month included 22 working days compared to 21 in both 2019 and 2025. But even after adjusting for this difference, the underlying trend remained firmly positive. Average visits per working day were 29.8% below 2019 levels and 6.4% higher than March 2025, pointing to real and continuing momentum in the market.
On a regional basis, substantive year-over-year (YoY) gains were seen across every major market but Washington, D.C., where adjusting for working days revealed a 3.4% YoY visit gap – possibly influenced by a mid-month severe storm event that may have kept some workers home in a region relatively unaccustomed to such disruptions.
Miami and New York remained at the top of the recovery curve, with office visits exceeding 90% of pre-COVID baselines.
But the more interesting story is unfolding on the West Coast, where some of the nation’s biggest recovery laggards are making steady progress. Los Angeles recorded the strongest YoY growth of any analyzed market, supported in part by the comparison to early 2025, when the city was still reeling from January’s wildfires. San Francisco, where an AI-driven recovery remains in full swing, also continued to build momentum, with visits up 15.4% YoY. The city is steadily climbing the post-pandemic recovery rankings – after avoiding the bottom spot since September 2025, it edged up to third from last for the second month in a row.
As hybrid policies continue to tighten and companies like Stellantis join the growing list of employers requiring five-day-a-week attendance, workplace behavior is shifting slowly but surely toward more in-person work. And While office attendance is unlikely to return to pre-COVID norms, additional mandates set to take effect later this year at organizations ranging from Home Depot to the California state government point to continued gains in office utilization in the months ahead.
For more data-driven RTO analyses, follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
While artificial intelligence was the undeniable protagonist of Shoptalk Spring 2026, the discussions illuminated a landscape far more nuanced than simple automation. Retailers are currently navigating a perfect storm of behavioral shifts, ranging from the physiological impact of GLP-1 medications to the cultural resurgence of the mall driven by Gen Alpha. In response, the industry is moving away from rigid demand planning toward a model defined by extreme operational agility, where the lines between digital agents and physical storefronts are increasingly blurred – an evolution reflected in the four key takeaways from this year’s event.
The most significant evolution in the digital space is the transition from traditional e-commerce to Agentic Commerce, or "A-Commerce" (hat tip Shoptalk’s Joe Laszlo). As AI agents begin to autonomously manage discovery, price comparison, and purchasing for consumers, the retail industry must pivot to serve these non-human decision-makers. This shift has the potential to disrupt the long-standing trend of retail concentration. By lowering the cost of customer acquisition and brand formation, AI is effectively leveling the playing field, allowing niche brands to challenge established giants and potentially reversing a decade of market consolidation.
Consumer behavior is currently evolving faster than at any point in recent history. The widespread adoption of GLP-1 medications has created a "lifestyle domino effect" that stretches far beyond the pharmacy. Data shows these medications are not only shifting primary grocery destinations but are also triggering a chain reaction in discretionary spending. A significant weight loss often prompts a total wardrobe refresh, which in turn leads to increased spending on housewares as consumers feel a renewed desire to host social gatherings and showcase their updated personal aesthetic.
Simultaneously, Gen Alpha is coming of age and bringing a surprising nostalgia for the physical "mall hangout" culture. Brands are responding by leaning heavily into "recommerce" and resale markets to build long-term community engagement. In this environment, lifetime value is no longer just about the initial transaction but about fostering a continuous cycle of brand interaction through niche marketplaces and circular economies.
The physical store is not dying; it is being re-engineered to function like a high-end service environment. The industry is moving toward a "hotel check-in" model where computer vision and loyalty integrations allow retailers to identify customers the moment they cross the threshold. This level of tracking is part of a new value exchange: consumers grant access to their data in return for hyper-personalized in-store media and a frictionless shopping experience. This evolution notably aims to eliminate "security friction," such as locked display cabinets, by replacing them with seamless, background-monitoring technologies.
Behind these front-end changes lies a total re-engineering of the supply chain. The traditional discipline of demand planning, which relies on historical data, is being replaced by "demand sensing." This model uses real-time AI to create highly reactive inventory flows that can pivot instantly based on current market signals. Furthermore, the economics of fulfillment have reached a tipping point; micro-fulfillment centers are now financially viable at a threshold of just 500 orders per day. This democratization of automation allows a broader range of retailers to offer localized, rapid delivery that was once the exclusive domain of the industry's largest players.
The retail playbook is being aggressively rewritten in 2026 as the industry moves past the era of mere experimentation and into one of total operational integration. The convergence of autonomous "A-Commerce" agents, the physiological lifestyle shifts triggered by GLP-1 medications, and the unexpected cultural resurgence of the physical mall among Gen Alpha has rendered legacy forecasting models obsolete. Success in this new landscape now depends on a retailer’s ability to bridge the gap between high-tech digital convenience and hyper-personalized, frictionless physical experiences. Ultimately, the winners of this cycle will be those who replace static planning with real-time demand sensing, ensuring they remain as agile as the rapidly evolving consumers they serve.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Following COVID-era highs, domestic migration levels have begun to taper off – with the number of Americans moving within the U.S. hitting an all-time low, according to some sources, in 2023.
To be sure, some popular COVID-era destinations – including Idaho, the Carolinas, and Utah – saw their net domestic migration continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace. But other states which had been relocation hotspots between February 2020 and February 2023, such as Wyoming and Texas, experienced negative net migration between February 2023 and February 2024.
Analyzing CBSA-level migration data reveals differences and similarities between last year’s migration patterns and COVID-era trends.
Between February 2020 and February 2023, seven out of the ten CBSAs posting the largest population increases due to inbound domestic migration were located in Florida. But between February 2023 and February 2024, the top 10 CBSAs with the largest net migrated percent of the population were significantly more diverse. Only four out of the ten CBSAs were located in Florida, and several new metro areas – including Provo-Orem, UT, Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA, and Boulder, CO – joined the list.
This white paper leverages a variety of location intelligence tools – including Placer.ai’s Migration Report, Niche Neighborhood Grades, and ACS Census Data location intelligence – to analyze two migration hotspots. Specifically, the report focuses on Daytona Beach, FL, which already appeared on the February 2020 to February 2023 list and has continued to see steady growth, and Boulder, CO, which has emerged as a new top destination. The data highlights the potential of CBSAs with unique value propositions to continue to attract newcomers despite ongoing housing headwinds.
The Boulder, CO CBSA has emerged as a domestic migration hotspot: The net influx of population between February 2023 and February 2024 (i.e. the total number of people that moved to Boulder from elsewhere in the U.S., minus those that left) constituted 3.1% of the CBSA’s February 2024 population.
The strong migration is partially due to the University of Colorado, Boulder’s growing popularity. But the metro area has also emerged as a flourishing tech hub, with Google, Apple, and Amazon all setting up shop in town, along with a wealth of smaller start ups.
Most domestic relocators tend to remain within state lines – so unsurprisingly, many of the recent newcomers to Boulder moved from other CBSAs in Colorado. But perhaps due to Boulder’s robust tech ecosystem, many of the new residents also came from Los Angeles, CA (6.6%) and San Francisco, CA (3.4%) – other CBSAs known for their thriving tech scenes.
At the same time, looking at the other CBSAs feeding migration to the area indicates that tech is likely not the only draw attracting people to Boulder: A significant share of relocators came from the CBSAs of Chicago, IL (6.1%), Dallas , TX (4.9%), and New York, NY (3.9%). The move from these relatively urbanized CBSAs to scenic Boulder indicates that some of the domestic migration to the area is likely driven by people looking for better access to nature or a general lifestyle change.
According to the U.S. News & World Report, Boulder ranked in second place in terms of U.S. cities with the best quality of life. Using Niche Neighborhood Grades to compare quality of life attributes in the Boulder CBSA and in the areas of origin dataset highlights some of the draw factors attracting newcomers to Boulder beyond the thriving tech scene.
The Boulder CBSA ranked higher than the metro areas of origin for “Public Schools,” “Health & Fitness,” “Fit for Families,” and “Access to Outdoor Activities.” These migration draw factors are likely helping Boulder attract more senior executives alongside younger tech workers – and can also explain why relocators from more urban metro areas may be choosing to make Boulder their home.
Boulder’s strong inbound migration numbers over the past year – likely driven by its flourishing tech scene and beautiful natural surroundings – reveal the growth potential of certain CBSAs regardless of wider housing market headwinds.
Florida experienced a population boom during the pandemic, and several CBSAs in the state – including the Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL CBSA – have continued to welcome domestic relocators in high numbers. The CBSA’s anchor city, Daytona Beach – known for its Bike Week and NASCAR’s Daytona 500 – has also seen positive net migration between February 2023 and February 2024.
Americans planning for retirement or retirees operating on a fixed income are likely particularly interested in optimizing their living expenses. And given Daytona’s relative affordability, it’s no surprise that the median age in the areas of origin feeding migration to Daytona Beach tends to be on the older side.
According to the 2021 Census ACS 5-Year Projection data, the median age in Daytona Beach was 39.0. Meanwhile, the weighted median age in the areas of migration origin was 42.6, indicating that those moving to Daytona Beach may be older than the current residents of the city.
Zooming into the migration data on a zip code level also highlights Daytona Beach’s appeal to older Americans: The zip code welcoming the highest rates of domestic migration was 32124, home to both Jimmy Buffet’s Latitude Margaritaville’s 55+ community and the LPGA International Golf Club, host of the LPGA Tour. The median age in this zip code is also older than in Daytona Beach as a whole, and the weighted age in the zip codes of origin was even higher – suggesting that older Americans and retirees may be driving much of the migration to the area.
Looking at the migration draw factors for Daytona Beach also suggests that the city is particularly appealing to retirees, with the city scoring an A grade for its “Fit for Retirees.” But the city of Daytona Beach is also an attractive destination for anyone looking to elevate their leisure time, with the city scoring higher than Daytona Beach’s cities of migration origin for “Weather,” “Access to Restaurants,” or “Access to Nightlife.”
Like Boulder, Daytona’s scenery – including its famous beaches – is likely attracting newcomers looking to spend more time outdoors and improve their work-life balance. And like Boulder and its tech scene, Daytona Beach also has an extra pull factor – its affordability and fit for older Americans – that is likely helping the area continue to attract new residents, even as domestic migration slows down nationwide.
Although the overall pace of domestic migration has slowed, analyzing location intelligence data reveals several migration hotspots amidst the overall cooldown. Boulder and Daytona Beach each have a set of unique draw factors that seem to attract different populations – and the success of these regions highlights the many paths to migration growth in 2024.
The Fitness industry was a major post-pandemic winner. Visits to gyms across the country surged as stay-at-home orders ended and people returned to their in-person workout routines. And even as consumers reduced discretionary spending in the face of inflation, they kept going to the gym – finding room in their budgets for the chance to embrace wellness and get in shape while interacting with other people.
But no category can sustain such unabated growth forever – and as the segment inevitably stabilizes, gyms will need to stay nimble on their feet to maintain their competitive edge.
This white paper takes a closer look at the state of Fitness as the category transitions into a more stable growth phase following two years of outsize post-pandemic demand. The report digs into the location analytics to reveal how the Fitness space has changed – and what strategies gyms can adopt to stay ahead of the pack.
*This report excludes locations within Washington state due to local legislation.
Monthly visits to the Fitness category have grown consistently year over year (YoY) since early 2022, when COVID subsided and gyms returned to full capacity. And the segment is still doing remarkably well. Even in January and March 2024 – when visits were curtailed by an Arctic blast and by the Easter holiday weekend – YoY Fitness visits remained positive, despite the comparison to an already strong 2023.
Still, recent months have seen smaller YoY increases than last year, indicating that the Fitness category is entering a more normalized growth phase.
By keeping a close watch on evolving consumer preferences, fitness chains can uncover new opportunities for growth and adaptation within a stabilizing market – including leaning into increasingly popular dayparts.
Examining the evolving distribution of gym visits by daypart over the past six years shows that major shifts were brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Between Q1 2019 and Q1 2021, as remote work took hold, gyms saw their share of 2:00 PM - 5:00 PM visits increase from 15.8% to 18.6%. Though this trend partially reversed as the pandemic receded, afternoon visits remained elevated in Q1 2024 compared to pre-COVID – likely a reflection of hybrid work patterns that leave people free to take an exercise break during their workdays.
At the same time, the share of morning visits to fitness chains (between 8:00 AM and 11:00 AM) dropped from 20.5% in Q1 2019 to 17.2% in Q1 2024, while evening visits (between 8:00 PM and 11:00 PM) increased from 11.3% to 13.2%.
Gyms that recognize this changing behavior can adapt to new workout preferences – whether by incentivizing morning visits, scheduling popular classes mid-afternoon, or offering extended evening hours.
In fact, the data indicates that gyms that are leaning into the evening workout trend are already finding success: Of the top 12 most-visited gym chains in the country, those that saw bigger increases in their shares of evening visits also tended to see greater YoY visit growth.
EōS Fitness and Crunch Fitness, for example, have seen their shares of evening visits grow by 5.5% and 3.4%, respectively, since COVID – and in Q1 2024, their YoY visits grew by 29.0% and 21.8%, respectively. Other chains, including 24 Hour Fitness and Chuze Fitness, experienced similar shifts in visit patterns. At the same time, LA Fitness saw just a minor increase in its share of evening visits between Q1 2019 and Q1 2024, and a correspondingly small increase in YoY visits.
As the evening workout slot gains popularity, gym operators that can adapt to these new trends and encourage evening visits may see significant benefits in the years to come.
Diving into demographic data for the analyzed gym chains sheds light on some factors that may be driving this heightened preference for evening workouts at top-performing gyms.
The four fitness chains that experienced the greatest YoY visit boosts in Q1 – Crunch Fitness, EōS Fitness, 24 Hour Fitness, and Chuze Fitness – all featured trade areas with significantly higher-than-average shares of Young Professionals and Non-Family Households. (STI: PopStat’s Non-Family Household segment includes households with more than one person not defined as family members. Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s Young Professional consumer segment includes young professionals starting their careers in white collar or technical jobs.)
In plainer terms, these consumer segments – typically young, well-educated, and without children – and therefore more likely to be flexible in their workout times – are driving visits to some of the best-performing gyms across the country. And these audiences seem to be displaying a preference for nighttime sweat sessions – a factor that gyms can take into account when planning programming and marketing efforts.
Leaning into emerging gym visitation patterns is one way for fitness chains to thrive in 2024 – but it isn’t the only marker of success for the segment. Even after years of visit growth, the market remains open to new opportunities and innovations that meet health-conscious consumers where they are.
STRIDE Fitness, a gym that offers treadmill-based interval training, has sparked a trend among running enthusiasts. This niche player is finding success, particularly among a specific demographic: runners and endurance training enthusiasts.
Between January and April 2024, monthly YoY visits to STRIDE Fitness consistently outperformed the wider Fitness space. A standout month was January, when STRIDE Fitness’s visits soared by an impressive 33.6% YoY, surpassing the industry average of 5.7% for the same period.
Psychographic data from the Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph dataset – which looks at the social media activity of a given audience – suggests that STRIDE Fitness’ trade areas are well-positioned to attract those visitors most open to its offerings. Residents of STRIDE Fitness’s potential market are 24% more likely to be, or to be interested in, Endurance Athletes than the nationwide average – compared to just 3% for the Fitness industry as a whole. Similar patterns emerge for Marathon Runners and Triathlon Participants. This indicates that the chain is well-situated near consumers with a passion for endurance sports and long distance running, helping it maintain a competitive edge in the crowded gym market.
Pickleball, a game that blends elements of tennis, ping pong, and badminton, is the fastest-growing sport in the country. And recognizing its broad appeal, some fitness chains have begun incorporating pickleball courts into their facilities.
Arizona-based EōS Fitness added a pickleball court at a Phoenix, AZ location – and early 2024 data highlights the impact of this addition. Between January and April 2024, the location drew between 9.1% and 33.3% more monthly visits than the chain’s Arizona visit-per-location average.
And analyzing the demographic profile of the chain’s location with a pickleball court reinforces the game’s increasingly wide appeal. Young consumer segments have been embracing the game in large numbers – and the Phoenix EōS Fitness location’s potential market includes a significantly higher share of 18 to 34-year-olds than the chain’s overall Arizona potential market. Residents of the pickleball location’s trade area are also less affluent than the chain’s Arizona average.
Pickleball has typically been associated with more affluent consumer segments, and it seems like this may be shifting. With more people than ever embracing the game, gyms that choose to add courts to their facilities may reap the foot traffic benefits.
The Fitness industry has undergone a significant transformation since COVID-19. The category’s outsize post-pandemic visit growth has begun to stabilize, and gyms are staying ahead by adapting to changing consumer preferences. Evenings are emerging as crucial dayparts for gym operators, likely driven by younger consumer segments. And niche fitness chains are seeing visit success, proving that there are plenty of ways for the Fitness segment to succeed.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Grabbing a coffee or snack at a convenience store is a time-honored road trip tradition – but increasingly, Convenience Stores (C-Stores) have also emerged as places people go out of their way to visit.
Convenience stores have thrived in recent years, making inroads into the discretionary dining space and growing both their audiences and their sales. Between April 2023 and March 2024, C-Stores experienced consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit growth, generally outperforming Overall Retail. Unsurprisingly, C-Stores fell behind Overall Retail in November and December 2023, when holiday shoppers flocked to malls and superstores to buy gifts for loved ones. But in January 2024, the segment regained its lead, growing YoY visits even as Overall Retail languished in the face of an Arctic blast that had many consumers hunkering down at home.
C-Stores’ current strength is partially due to the significant innovation by leading players in the space: Chains like Casey’s, Maverik, Buc-ee’s, and Rutter’s are investing in both in their product offerings and in their physical venues to transform the humble C-Store from a stop along the way into a bona fide destination. Dive into the data to explore some of the key strategies helping C-Stores drive consumer engagement and stay ahead of the pack.
While chain expansion may explain some of the C-Store segment growth, a look at visit-per-location trends shows that demand is growing at the store level as well. Over the past year (April 2023 to March 2024), average visits per location on an industry-wide basis grew by 1.8%, compared to the year prior (April 2022 to 2023).
And within this growing segment, some brands are distinguishing themselves and outperforming category averages. Casey’s, for example, saw the average number of visits to each of its locations increase by 2.3% over the same time frame – while Maverik, Buc-ee’s and Rutter’s saw visits per location increase by 3.2%, 3.4% and 3.9%, respectively.
Each in its own way, Casey’s, Maverik, Buc-ee’s, and Rutter’s, are helping to transform C-Stores from pit stops where people can stretch their legs and grab a cup of coffee to destinations in and of themselves.
Midwestern gas and c-store chain Casey’s – famous for its breakfast pizza and other grab-and-go breakfast items – has emerged as a prime spot for fast food pizza lovers to grab a slice first thing in the morning. And Salt Lake City, Utah-based Maverik – which recently acquired Kum & Go and its 400-plus stores – is also establishing itself as a breakfast destination thanks to its specialty burritos and other chef-inspired creations.
Casey’s and Maverik’s popular breakfast options are likely helping the chains receive its larger-than-average share of morning visits: In Q1 2024, 16.3% of visits to Maverik and 17.5% of visits to Casey’s took place during the 7:00 AM - 10:00 AM daypart, compared to just 14.9% of visits to the wider C-Store category.
Psychographic data from the Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph dataset – which looks at the social media activity of a given audience – also suggests that Casey’s and Maverik’s have opened stores in locations that allow them to reach their target audience. Compared to the average consumer, residents of Casey’s potential market are 7% more likely to be “Fast Food Pizza Lovers” than both the average consumer and the average C-Store trade area resident. Residents of Maverik’s potential market are 16% more likely than the average consumer to be “Mexican Food Enthusiasts,” compared to residents of the average C-Store’s trade area who are only 1% more likely to fall into that category.
With both chains expanding, Casey’s and Maverik can hope to introduce new audiences to their unique breakfast options and solidify their hold over the morning daypart within the C-Store space over the next few years.
Everything is said to be bigger in the Lone Star State, and Texas-based convenience store chain Buc-ee’s – holder of the record for the worlds’ largest C-Store – is no exception. With a unique array of specialty food items and award-winning bathrooms, Buc-ee’s has emerged as a well-known tourist attraction. And the popular chain’s status as a visitor hotspot is reflected in two key metrics.
First, Buc-ee’s attracts a much greater share of weekend visits than other convenience store chains. In Q1 2024, 39.6% of visits to Buc-ee’s took place on the weekends, compared to just 28.3% for the wider C-Store industry. And second, Buc-ee’s captured markets feature higher-than-average shares of family-centric households – including those belonging to Experian: Mosaic’s Suburban Style, Flourishing Families, and Promising Families segments.
Rather than merely a place to stop on the way to work, Buc-ee’s has emerged as a favored destination for families and for people looking for something fun to do on their days off.
Buc-ee’s isn’t the only C-Store chain that believes bigger is better. Pennsylvania-based Rutter’s is increasing visits and customer dwell time by expanding its footprint – both in terms of store count and venue size. New stores will be 10,000 to 12,000 square feet – significantly larger than the industry average of around 3,100 square feet. And in more urban areas, where space is at a premium, the company is building upwards.
Rutter’s added a second floor to one of its existing locations in York, PA in December 2023. The remodel, which was met with enthusiasm by customers, provided additional seating for up to 30 diners, a beer cave, and an expanded wine selection. And in Q1 2024, the location experienced 15.6% YoY visit growth – compared to a chainwide average of 7.6%. Visitors to the newly remodeled Rutter’s also stayed significantly longer than they did pre-renovation. The share of extended visits to the store (longer than ten minutes) grew from 20.8% in Q1 2023 to 27.0% in Q1 2024 – likely from people browsing the chain’s selection of beers or grabbing a bite to eat.
Convenience stores are flourishing, transforming into some of the most exciting dining and tourist destinations in the country. Today, C-Store customers can expect to find brisket sandwiches, gourmet coffees, or craft beers, rather than the stale cups of coffee of old. And the data shows that customers are receptive to these innovations, helping drive the segment’s success.
