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What does 2024 hold for malls and shopping centers? We dove into the data to unearth the trends likely to shape the space in the coming year.
The move towards greater tenant diversity in malls shaped the shopping center space in recent years, and the trend appears set to be taken to the next level in 2024. Placemaking – crafting public spaces that go beyond utilitarian needs to foster social interaction and exchange – is at the forefront of many urban development initiatives, and the trend is already boosting retail performance in successful placemaking projects.
Fenton, a mixed-use district in Cary, N.C., opened in June 2022. The project showcases the potential of placemaking to transform an underutilized space into a vibrant “live-work-play” community with something for individuals and families of all ages. The retail and entertainment village includes shops, restaurants, seasonal attractions, entertainment venues, and other diverse offerings that are establishing Fenton as a community hub and a prime destination for residents. Visits were up 53.2% between July and December 2023 compared to the same period in 2022, while median dwell time increased from 64 to 83 minutes.
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Across the country, in Phoenix, AZ, Park Central Mall – the state’s first open-air shopping center – was also redesigned as a mixed-use development Park Central. The complex includes restaurants, office space, medical facilities, and bioscience research labs, with more hospitality and housing under construction. And although the project first reopened in 2019, visits to the revitalized Park Central continue to grow – between 2022 and 2023, foot traffic to Park Central increased by 32.8% while median dwell time grew from 75 to 80 minutes.
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In 2023, malls attracted relatively high income shoppers – and as the trend is likely to continue in 2024, with high-income shoppers displaying significantly stronger consumer confidence than their middle- and low-income counterparts.
Households in the potential market trade areas of Indoor Malls, Open-Air Lifestyle Centers, and Outlet Malls tended to have higher incomes relative to the nationwide median – and the median HHI was even higher in the malls’ captured market trade area. This means that many of these malls are located within relatively affluent communities (hence the relatively high potential market median HHI) and attract the higher-income shoppers within those areas (as shown by the even higher captured market median HHI).
With middle-income shoppers expected to tighten their budgets in 2024, high-income consumers will likely remain a significant share of mall-goers in 2024 as well.
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Malls used to be the place for teens to hang out on weekends – and it looks like shopping centers are once again attracting younger generations of consumers. Between 2019 and 2023, the share of “Young Professionals” and “Young Urban Singles” in the captured market trade areas of Indoor Malls, Open-Air Shopping Centers, and Outlet Malls increased. At the same time, the share of older segments – “Suburban Boomers” and “Sunset Boomers” – decreased.
As Gen-Z shoppers rediscover physical stores and increasingly seek out the mall-going experience, the share of younger consumers visiting shopping centers may well grow larger in the upcoming year.
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Last year’s ongoing inflation brought a unique set of challenges to a brick-and-mortar space still recovering from the pandemic’s impact. But 2023 ended with a surge in consumer confidence, and 2024 may well bring a positive shift to malls and the wider retail landscape. And shopping centers – especially those that offer a diversity of experience and succeed in catering high-income and/or younger shoppers – can take advantage of the opportunities in the year ahead.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/blog.
Few things are as universally loved as freshly baked bread. And the options for where to find a loaf are plentiful, from local artisan shops to bakery chains to grocery store bread counters. Is there room in the crowded bakery scene for everyone? We take a closer look at the visitation data for a few bakery chains that are on the rise to find out.
Paris Baguette, the South Korean bakery and cafe chain, inaugurated its first U.S. store in Los Angeles in 2005. True to its name, the chain offers a menu inspired by classic French boulangeries with a Korean twist – think mochi donuts sold alongside croissants.
Paris Baguette hopes to operate 1,000 stores across the country by 2030; to that end, it embraced a franchising approach in 2015 to accelerate growth and store openings. Visitation patterns suggest that this move has proven itself to be a winning one.
Examining the change in monthly visits to Paris Baguette locations since November 2019 underscores the brand’s remarkable growth. The chain operated 77 stores in the U.S. in November 2019; today, that number has nearly doubled. And visits have soared accordingly, with December 2023 seeing 96.7% more monthly visits than December 2019.
As Paris Baguette continues to see its success rising, the bakery chain appears well-positioned to maintain its momentum and achieve its ambitious expansion plans.
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85°C Bakery, often dubbed the "Starbucks of Taiwan," made its way to the U.S. in 2008. The chain, which operated 59 U.S. stores as of March 2023 in addition to its significant international presence, seeks to solidify its standing in the American market.
Named after the ideal coffee-brewing temperature, 85°C has enjoyed year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic growth throughout most of 2023. And the chain, which currently operates in the West and in Texas, announced plans for an East Coast expansion in August 2023, signaling its intent to reach new consumer segments.
Diving into the visitation data reveals that 85°C not only enjoys strong monthly foot traffic but also draws more family households (defined by the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset) to its trade areas compared to the statewide average. In California, Texas, and Washington, the trade areas show an overrepresentation of "Near-Urban Diverse Families," "Ultra Wealthy Families," and "Wealthy Suburban Families." This suggests that families – particularly affluent ones – are drawn to the chain.
As 85°C continues expanding, including into new markets and dining concepts – such as the recent addition of a dumpling shop – the chain hopes to continue bringing its Taiwanese flavors to a wider audience.
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Tartine and Porto’s are two Los Angeles natives with very different approaches to dough. Tartine, the brainchild of breadmasters Chad Robertson and Elizabeth Prueitt, is thought to have brought sourdough bread into the mainstream in the U.S. Porto’s, on the other hand, began as an immigrant-owned bakery in the 1970s, bringing the taste of Cuba to California.
And the two chains, while both based in the same city, see significant differences in their visitor demographics. Analyzing visitors to both bakery brands using the STI: Popstats dataset reveals that, while 29.1% of Porto’s captured market* trade area was made up of households with children – very close to the California median of 29.6% – only 17.3% of Tartine’s captured market* trade area was made up of households with children. And the median household income (HHI) also showed significant variance between the brands, with Tartine visitors earning significantly more than Porto’s and the California median HHI.
*A business’s captured market refers to the trade area with each census block weighted according to its share of visits to the chain or venue in question.
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The variance in demographics across these two iconic Los Angeles bakeries serves as testament to the city's diverse culinary landscape and ability to embrace and sustain a wide array of eateries.
The four bakeries prove that there is plenty of room in a crowded kitchen for different kinds of bakeries to succeed, from tiny artisan bakeries to major chains.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit placer.ai/blog.
Country clubs are changing with the times, moving away from the once-exclusive image of business dealings on the golf course. A more inclusive concept is taking root – and attracting a growing number of young members.
We took a closer look at the location intelligence metrics of country clubs throughout the country to understand how they are shifting and what might be driving these changes.
Golf and tennis, two country club stalwarts, surged in popularity over the COVID-19 pandemic, and that increase has sustained itself – more people than ever are playing the games. Looking at year-over-four-year (Yo4Y) visits to country clubs suggests that these establishments are reaping the benefits of the interest in both sports. Visits were elevated compared to the same period in 2019 for all but two months analyzed.
June, when the U.S. Open was held, saw the most impressive Yo4Y visit growth of 28.7%. The championship, the most-watched golf tournament since 2019, was held in the Los Angeles Country Club, and likely contributed to a spike in visits to golf clubs, either for U.S. Open-related events or a U.S. Open-inspired desire to golf. The year ended on a high note, with December visits to country clubs up by 12.1% Yo4Y – a solid indication that interest in membership clubs remains strong.
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Millennials, a consumer cohort that has historically shown little interest in joining country clubs, seem to be changing course and may be driving some of the visit growth. This population is increasingly seeking spaces to socialize and network – and in response, many golf clubs are shifting their offerings to appeal to a younger demographic. Location intelligence indicates that the strategy is working.
Examining country club demographics across the country – in Long Island, New York; Austin, Texas; Atlanta, Georgia; and Minneapolis, Minnesota – suggests a shift in membership makeup. Some of these areas have seen an influx of millennials in recent years, which likely expanded the pool of younger potential country club members. But the trade areas of many of the country clubs’ also skewed younger in 2023 than they did in 2019 – meaning that these clubs are attracting visitors from neighborhoods with lower median ages compared to the neighborhoods feeding visits to country clubs in 2019.
Some clubs, like the Capital City Country Club in Atlanta, Georgia, saw relatively small drops in median age – from 41.2 in 2019 to 40.2 in 2023. But other clubs saw much more pronounced drops – the Hazeltine National Golf Club near Minneapolis, Minnesota saw its median age drop by 7.8 years between 2019 and 2023. The Country Club Of The South in Atlanta, Georgia, also saw a Yo4Y drop in median age – from 38.0 to 31.8.
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Country clubs tend to have a steep financial barrier to entry, with costs including annual membership dues, initiation fees, and expenses for food and beverages. And perhaps unsurprisingly, most country club members boast a median household income (HHI) well above the nationwide median. And although younger demographics generally have to have less income than their older counterparts, the drop in median age across many country clubs does not seem to be having a major impact on the affluence of these clubs’ visitor bases.
Some clubs that experienced Yo4Y drops in the median age of visitors – Great Hills Country Club in Austin, Texas, for example – did see the median HHI of its visitors drop slightly. But for the most part, the median HHI of visitors to country clubs remained stable Yo4Y, and some, like the Edina Country Club in Minnesota, saw the median HHI grow Yo4Y. This suggests that the decline in median age within membership clubs may be driven by a desire for socializing and new experiences rather than a shift towards increased financial accessibility for a broader range of members.
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The shift in the demographics of country club visitors, marked by the rising number of younger members, is a trend that may solidify further. Clubs in tune with this demographic – young professionals and millennials – can consider what is important to this cohort to continue attracting the younger generation.
For more data-driven leisure and entertainment insights, visit placer.ai/blog.
Florida, known for its year-round sunny weather and iconic attractions like Disneyland and EPCOT, has long been a popular tourist destination. And though many people think of Miami and Orlando when planning a trip to Florida, Tampa is fast becoming one of the country's most popular getaway spots. The city has seen its tourism sector grow over the past few years, so we dove into the location analytics data to better understand these tourism trends.
Tampa has emerged as an attractive place for out-of-state home buyers and relocators in recent years – especially for younger generations looking to take advantage of the city’s status as an emerging tech hub as well as enjoy the pleasant climate and beautiful beaches. But examining foot traffic trends to Downtown Tampa also reveals Tampa’s growing popularity among out-of-state visitors.
Tampa International Airport – named the “best large airport in North America in 2023” – is growing fast, and visits to the Downtown Tampa POI from visitors coming from 250+ miles away were up almost every month of 2023, especially compared to pre-pandemic 2019. (Most places 250 miles or more outside Tampa are also outside Florida.) And although YoY foot traffic did dip some months, the drop was likely due to the comparison with a particularly strong 2022 that brought a record number of tourists to the Hillsborough County seat.
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Diving into the demographic data of visitors traveling to Downtown Tampa from at least 250 miles away helps shed light on who is driving this domestic tourism surge.
Between 2019 and 2023, the share of households with children in the trade areas feeding out-of-state visits to downtown Tampa grew from 25.9% in 2019 to 27.1% in 2023. Similarly, the median household income (HHI) of visitors to the city’s downtown also increased from $85.1K/year to $91.8K/year. These shifts in visitor demographics suggest that at least some of the tourism surge to the city may be driven by families with children and wealthy families.
It seems, then, that Tampa is on the rise not just as a retirement hub or as a millennial and Gen-Z hotspot. The city is also attracting an increasingly larger share of affluent families with children, indicating that this rising Florida star with something for everyone may soar even higher in 2024.
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With its pristine beaches and diverse attractions, Tampa has long boasted a robust tourism sector – and the city’s popularity has surged even higher post-pandemic. So far, 2024 looks promising for the city’s tourism segment. Will Tampa continue to attract vacationers and sight-seers?
Visit placer.ai/blog to find out.
As discussed last week, 2023 was a year that forced restaurant operators to stay agile amid inflationary headwinds and changes in consumer behavior, daypart shifts, new approaches to drive-thru, and population migration changes. This week’s ICR Conference also gave us a chance to speak with the management team from more than 25 restaurant chains as well as their investors to better understand their lessons from 2023 and how they plan to apply them in 2024.
Despite most chains reporting that visits are still down on a year-over-year basis, there was a sense of optimism among many of the operators we spoke to. Many acknowledged that there were still pressures weighing on consumer spending, but that the strategies put in place during 2023 to stabilize visitation trends had been working (including an emphasis on value, elevated experience, adopting new restaurant formats to better address a wider range of commercial property types, and new menu innovations). Several management teams acknowledged that the contractor availability and equipment supply chain bottlenecks that had plagued new store openings in 2023 had started to dissipate, with several chains planning to resume or even exceed their pre-pandemic pace of restaurant openings (although many admitted that new store buildout costs are still running 25%-30% higher than they were 5 years ago). Given the higher costs involved with new store openings (and the risk of opening a location in a subpar site), there was a heavy emphasis on harnessing new data sources to better understand migration trends, trade area demographics, and incumbent competition when making site selection opportunities (and thank you to customers like Dave & Buster’s and Chuy’s for highlighting how they are incorporating Placer data into these decisions).
Below, we discuss a few key trends that restaurant operators and their commercial real estate partners should be thinking about as we move into 2024.
Perhaps it shouldn’t be surprising at an event where several restaurant operators were looking to raise capital, but the overarching theme from most management teams that we spoke to this week was that they were ready to accelerate unit expansion plans. Expansion strategies differed by concept, but most operators planned to open new locations across a combination of existing and new markets. With respect to new markets, many operators told us they were prioritizing South and Southeastern markets for new market expansion, echoing what we heard from McDonald’s and others last year. Below, we’ve presented the latest data from Placer’s Migration Trends Report which shows total population changes by market from November 2019-November 2023. Indeed, our data confirms that many South (Phoenix, Texas) and Southeast (Central Florida, Carolinas) markets were among the highest growth populations in the U.S. over the past four years.
That said, with so many restaurant operators targeting these regions, we heard from several executives about the importance of fully understanding the makeup of the markets. Said another way, just because a market has seen meaningful population growth, it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a candidate for expansion. Below, we’ve presented the same migration map as above (2019-2023 population growth), but with a origin/destination household income filter. A red dot on this map indicates that a market saw the average household income fall because of migration, while a green dot indicates that a market saw an increase in household income. Here, we see a slightly different story, as many higher growth populations actually saw a decline in household income due to migration. We also see the impact of the urban/suburban migration shift that we’ve discussed in the past, with many smaller markets across the Carolinas and Central Florida seeing the highest household income growth versus 2019.
Below, we’ve attempted to bring the two charts together and identify markets that have not only seen population growth but also a significant increase in household income. We see markets like Las Vegas and other areas in Central Florida and the Carolinas region score well using this methodology, but a number of other markets like Boise City, ID, Lakeland, WI, and Spokane, WA also seeing increases in population but also an increase in their average household income.
Most U.S. markets have gone through significant changes post-pandemic both in terms of population size and population makeup. At the end of the day, it's important for restaurants and retailers to not only understand both of these factors when evaluating new markets for growth. We’ve certainly seen success stories–Portillo’s continues to thrive in Texas, for example–but we’ve also seen cases where restaurant openings haven’t been as successful in newer markets because of migration changes.
We spoke about trends in the eatertainment category last year with the conclusion being that these concepts were still key in driving traffic to commercial properties (despite facing tougher year-over-year comparisons from the great reopening we saw in 2022). There was a palpable sense of optimism among the eatertainment concepts we spoke to at the event, whether they were more focused on entertainment (including Dave & Buster’s, Puttshack, and Pinstripes) or interactive dining (Kura Revolving Sushi Bar or GEN Korean BBQ).
We’ve updated the eatertainment versus casual dining category visit per location analysis we’ve presented in the past below. Although eatertainment’s visit per location outperformance narrowed versus casual dining during Q4 2023, we believe this is a byproduct of seasonality (shift to sit-down dining during the holiday season) and expect the gap to widen once again during Q1 2024.
Most of the eatertainment concepts we spoke to at the ICR conference planned a two-pronged approach to unit expansion in 2024: infilling existing markets and establishing a beachhead in newer markets. Most concepts in this category were planning to grow their store bases by at least double-digit growth rates in 2024, with some like Pinstripes are forecasting 30%+ unit growth this year. Other like Dave & Buster’s are planning to focus on remodeling activity on top of new unit openings to modernize their locations. As demand for eatertainment remains strong among consumers and mall owners, we anticipate that this will remain one of the past growing categories in dining during 2024.
Casual dining concepts often have a reputation of catering to an older population. However, Darden’s management team called out several demographic trends that should benefit its different brands (including Olive Garden, Longhorn Steakhouse, Cheddar’s, Yardhouse, and others). First, while the percentage of the population in their peak earning years (typically between the ages of 35 and 55) had been on a downward trend for much of the 2000s and part of the 2010s, we’ve seen a reversal of this trend in recent years, which should stimulate demand for full-service dining. Second, the company noted that it over-indexes to millennials. Our data reinforces this, as the potential trade area audience profile by age cohort for Olive Garden (below) indicates a higher percentage of population between the ages of 30-49, encapsulating much of the millennial age range (roughly 27-42 years old today). Last year, we noted that some of the shift to earlier dining times may have been due to changing demographic trends in cities, with an increase in younger families in urban markets needing earlier dining times. Darden's commentary offers further validation of these trends and offers hope for other casual dining chains as this generation cohort continues to enter their peak earning years.
Last year, we noted that some of the shift to earlier dining times may have been due to changing demographic trends in cities, with an increase in younger families in urban markets needing earlier dining times. Darden's commentary offers further validation of these trends and offers hope for other casual dining chains as this generation cohort continues to enter their peak earning years.
Grocery anchors proved to be a saving grace for many a shopping center during COVID. With apparel and dining shut down and only essential retailers allowed to open, many centers suddenly found that having a superstore/mass merchant like Walmart or Target, a warehouse like Costco or Sam’s Club, or a grocery store on the premises helped to steady some of the waves of traffic fluctuations. Whether it was as part of a specific center or more broadly adding grocery-anchored centers to a portfolio, REITs started looking more closely at the role of grocery in their centers. Indeed, we have written about the inclusion of specialty grocery stores and ethnic grocery stores in shopping centers being even rather quotidian these days. We’ve also written about the redevelopment of shopping centers that include food halls as part of their renaissance.
So it was rather surprising that Bristol Farms’ concept Newfound Market, which opened at the Irvine Spectrum in March 2022, recently announced that it is closing. The initial concept was to be “very much about experience…diving in deep on food and beverage…curated, yet everyday.” It was to feature seven of Bristol Farms’ own chef-created restaurant brands.
We take a look at some Placer statistics to see what might have accounted for reduced traffic for what sounded like an amazing concept. As a control, we compared the Bristol Farms in Irvine to one in nearby Newport Beach. We see that when Newfound Market first opened, it had nearly twice the traffic of the one in Newport Beach. This could be due to overall excitement about the chef-driven concepts, wanting to check out a new grocery store, or other factors. However, traffic for Newfound Market began dwindling in Fall 2022, and fell even further in Fall 2023, likely leading to its closure.
If we look at variance, we see that during the same time period, traffic grew for Irvine Spectrum Center as a whole (note it was one of our spectacular callouts for holiday shopping 2023 in terms of year-over-year growth), and traffic was fairly steady for the Newport Beach branch of the Bristol Farms.
How much did the number of Newfound Market shoppers change over time? We compared the Bristol Farms Newfound Market Shopper from Apr.-Dec. 2022 with that of the shopper from Apr.-Dec. 2023. During that time, there were over 150K fewer visits and around 100K fewer visitors. Visit frequency also decreased from 1.54 to 1.4 (below).
There was a slight dip in the average household income of the visitor.
There was a marked decrease in the proportion of Ultra Wealthy Families coming in 2023, and somewhat of a decrease of Wealthy Suburban Families.
Interestingly, the trade area has expanded from 2022 to 2023, as shown by the increase in red dots from further afield.
And indeed, Placer analysis reveals that the trade area increased by 28 square miles. On one hand, this is a plus, showing that there is a magnetic draw to a wider audience. On the other hand, given that most grocery stores live on weekly visits from a much tighter trade area, this could indicate that a trip to Irvine Spectrum and/or the Bristol Farms Newfound Market began to fall under the umbrella of a “destination” visit, rather than a regular “essential” visit. Over time, those locals who associate the Irvine Spectrum more with a Ferris Wheel might not have grocery shopping there as top-of-mind, and those who come from further away have already tried out the food hall.
The average visit frequency to Bristol Farms Newfound market was 1.54 from Apr.-Dec. 2022 and 1.40 from Apr.-Dec. 2023. In contrast, the average visit frequency to the top four most-trafficked Bristol Farms was closer to 3-4 visits, a rate more than double. Most telling is when we look at the bar chart below and see that the number of one-time visitors versus 30+ time visitors at Newfound Market is almost in direct contrast to its four other peers, who have a much higher proportion of their visits in the 10+ range.
This by no means negates the fact that grocery stores and food halls can be wonderful additions to shopping centers. For instance, 99 Ranch opened at Westfield Oakridge around the same time period (March 2022) and to date it has proven to have a steady stream of traffic. Keep in mind that Oakridge is more of your neighborhood mall with typical mall retailers, hence more likely to be part of a weekly or monthly routine.
Comparing year-over-year variance, the 99 Ranch at Oakridge has also overindexed on a percentage basis compared to the overall mall. The grocery store draws from a trade area of 58 square miles, with an average of 2.86 visits.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Over the past year, Fast-Casual & Quick-Service Restaurant (QSR) chains have thrived, consistently outperforming the Full-Service Dining segment with positive year-over-year (YoY) visit growth every quarter since 2023. In this white paper, we dive into the data for leading dining chains to take a closer look at what’s driving visitors to the QSR segment and what other dining categories can learn from fast-food’s success.
One of the key factors separating QSR chains – aptly known as “fast food” – from the rest of the dining industry is the speed at which diners can get a ready-to-eat meal in their hands. And within the QSR space, speed of service is one of the ways chains differentiate themselves from their competition.
Leading fast-food chains are investing heavily in technologies and systems designed to help them serve customers ever more quickly:
Taco Bell’s “Touch Display Kitchen System” is designed to optimize cooking operations and improve wait times, while the chain’s Go Mobile restaurant format seeks to alleviate bottlenecks in the drive-thru lane. Chick-fil-A also has dedicated channels for quick mobile order pick-up and is planning four-lane drive-thrus with second-floor kitchens to get meals out even faster. And to save time at the drive-thru, Wendy’s is experimenting with generative AI and developing an underground, robotic system to deliver digital orders to designated parking spots within seconds.
And location intelligence shows that all three chains are succeeding in reducing customer wait times. Over the past four years, Taco Bell, Chick-fil-A, and Wendy’s have seen steady increases in the share of visits to their venues lasting less than 10 minutes.
The data also suggests that investment in speed of service can increase overall visitation to QSR venues.
In late 2022, McDonald’s opened a to-go-only location outside of Dallas, TX with a lane dedicated to mobile order fulfillment via a conveyor belt. And in Q1 2024, this venue not only had a larger share of short visits compared to the other McDonald’s locations in the region, but also more visits compared to the McDonald’s average visits per venue in the Dallas-Fort Worth CBSA.
This provides further support for the power of fast order fulfillment to drive QSR visits, with customers motivated by the prospect of getting in and out quickly.
The success of the fast-food segment is even driving other restaurants to borrow typical QSR formats – especially during time slots when people are most likely to grab a bite to eat on the go.
In September 2023, full-service leader Applebee’s opened a new format: a fast casual location focusing on To Go orders in Deer Park, NY, featuring pick-up lockers for digital orders and limited dine-in options without table service.
And the new format is already attracting outsized weekday and lunchtime crowds. In Q1 2024, 20.5% of visits to the chain’s To Go venue took place during the 12:00 PM - 2:00 PM time slot, while the average Applebee’s in the New York-Newark-Jersey City CBSA received less than 10% of its daily visits during that daypart. The new restaurant also drew a significantly higher share of weekday visits than other nearby venues.
This suggests that takeaway-focused venues could help full-service chains grow their visit share during weekdays and the coveted lunch rush, when consumers may be less inclined to have a sit-down meal.
An additional factor contributing to QSR and Fast Casual success in 2024 may be the rise of chicken-based chains. Chicken is a versatile ingredient that has remained relatively affordable, which could be contributing to its growing popularity and the rapid expansion of several chicken chains.
Comparing the relative visit share (not including delivery) of various sub-segments within the wider Fast Casual & QSR space showed that the share of visits to chains with chicken-based menus has increased steadily between 2019 and 2023: In Q1 2024, 15.3% of Fast Casual & QSR visits were to a chicken restaurant concept, compared to just 13.4% in Q1 2019.
The strength of chicken-based concepts is also evident when comparing average visits per venue at leading chicken chains with the wider Fast Casual & QSR average.
Both Chick-fil-A, the nation’s predominant chicken chain, and Raising Cane’s, a rapidly expanding player in the fast-food chicken space, are receiving significantly more visits per venue than their Fast Casual & QSR peers: In Q1 2024, Raising Cane’s and Chick-fil-A restaurants saw an average of 153.0% and 237.7% more visits per venue, respectively, compared to the combined Fast Casual & QSR industries average.
The elevated traffic at chicken chains likely plays a part in their profitability per restaurant relative to other Fast Casual & QSR concepts with more sizable fleets.
QSR and Fast-Casual chains are also particularly adept at generating seasonal visit spikes through unique Limited Time Offers and holiday promotions adapted to the calendar.
Arby’s recently launched a 2 for $6 sandwich promotion on February 1st, with two of the three sandwich options on promotion being fish-based in an apparent attempt to entice diners eschewing meat in observance of Lent. The company also brought back a specialty fish sandwich, likely with the goal of further appealing to the Lent-observing demographic.
The offers seem to have driven significant traffic spikes, with foot traffic during the promotion period significantly higher than the January daily visit average. And traffic was particularly elevated during Lent – which this year fell on Wednesday, February 14th through Thursday, March 28th, with visits spiking on Fridays when those observing are most likely to seek out fish-based meals.
Some of the elevated visits in the second half of Q1 may be attributed to the comparison to a weaker January across the dining segment. But the success of the fish-forward promotion specifically during Lent suggests that the company’s calendar-appropriate LTO played a major role in driving visits to the chain.
Shorter-term promotions – even those lasting just a single day – can also drive major visit spikes.
Since 1991, White Castle has transformed its fast-food restaurants into a reservation-only, “fine-dining” experience for dinner on Valentine's Day. In 2024, Valentine’s Day fell on a Wednesday, and White Castle’s sit-down event drove a 11.8% visit increase relative to the average Wednesday in Q1 2024 and a 3.9% visit increase compared to the overall Q1 2024 daily average.
The elevated visit numbers over Valentine’s Day are even more impressive when considering that a full-service dining room can accommodate fewer visitors than the drive-thrus and counter service of White Castle’s typical QSR configuration. The spike in February 14th visits may also be attributed to an increased number of diners showing up throughout the day to take in the Valentine’s Day buzz.
QSR and Fast-Casual dining are having a moment. And the data shows that a combination of factors – including fast and efficient service, the rising popularity of chicken-based dining concepts, and effective LTOs – are all playing a part in the categories’ recent success.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
The first American mall opened in 1956 and reinvented retail – within a decade there were over 4,500 malls across the country. But a rise in e-commerce coupled with the oversaturation of mall options across the country paved the way for mall visits to slow, and many predicted that malls would go the way of the dinosaur.
But although malls were hit hard over the past few years as lockdowns and rising costs contributed to a significant drop in foot traffic, shopping centers have proven resilient. Leading players in the space have consistently reinvented themselves and explored alternate ways to draw in crowds – and as inflation cools, malls are bouncing back as well.
This white paper analyzes the Placer.ai Shopping Center Industry – a collection of over 3000 shopping centers across the United States – as well as the Placer.ai’s Mall Indexes, which focus on top-tier Indoor Malls, Open-Air Shopping Centers, Outlet Malls. The report examines how visits are shifting and where behaviors are changing – and where they’re staying the same – and takes a closer look at the strategies malls are using to attract shoppers in 2024.
Malls experienced a rocky few years as pandemic-related restrictions and economic headwinds kept many shoppers at home, and visits to all mall types in 2021 were between 10.7% to 15.3% lower than in 2019. But foot traffic trends improved significantly in 2022 – likely due to the fading out of COVID restrictions.
By 2023, visits to the wider Shopping Center Industry were just 2.3% lower than they had been in 2019, and the visit gaps for Indoor Malls and Open-Air Shopping Centers had narrowed to 5.8% and 1.0% lower, respectively. Outlet Malls also saw visits ticking up once again, with the visit gap compared to 2019 narrowing to 8.5% in 2023 after having dropped to 11.3% in 2022. This more sustained foot traffic dip may stem from consumers’ desire to save on gas costs or the impacts of inclement weather. However, the narrowing visit gaps suggest that shoppers are increasingly returning to the segment, and foot traffic may yet pick up again in 2024.
COVID-19 impacted more than just visit numbers – it also changed in-store consumer behavior. And now, with the Coronavirus a distant memory for many, some of these pandemic-acquired habits are fading away, while other shifts appear to be holding steady.
One visit metric that appears to have reverted to pre-COVID norms is the share of weekday vs. weekend visits. Weekday visits had increased in 2021 – at the height of COVID – as consumers found themselves with more free time midweek, but the balance of weekday vs. weekend visits has now returned to 2019 levels.
In 2023, the Shopping Center Industry, which includes a number of grocery-anchored centers along with open-air shopping centers and their relatively large variety of dining options, saw the largest share of weekday visits, followed by Indoor Malls. Outlet Malls received the lowest share of weekday visits – around 55% – likely due to the longer distances usually required to drive to these malls, making them ideal destinations for weekend day trips.
While the day of the week that people frequent malls hasn't changed significantly since 2019, there is one notable difference in mall foot traffic pre- and post-pandemic. Almost all mall categories are seeing fewer during the late morning-midday and late evening dayparts, while the amount of people heading to a mall in the afternoon and early evening has increased.
In 2019, Indoor Malls saw 20.1% of visits occurring between 10:00am and 1:00pm, but that share decreased to 18.6% in 2023. Meanwhile, the share of visits between 4:00-7:00 pm rose from 29.1% in 2019 to 32.4% in 2023. Similar patterns repeated across all shopping center categories, with the 1:00-4:00pm daypart seeing a slight increase, the 4:00-7:00 pm daypart receiving the largest boost and the 7:00-10:00 pm daypart seeing the largest drop. So although changes in work habits have not altered the weekly visit distribution, it seems like hybrid workers are taking advantage of their new, and likely more flexible schedules to frequent malls in the afternoon instead of reserving their mall trips for after work. The significant numbers of Americans moving to the suburbs in recent years may also be contributing to the decline of late night visits, with these suburban newcomers perhaps less likely to spend time outside the house during the evening hours.
Although malls have enjoyed consistent growth in foot traffic over the past two years, visits still remain below 2019 levels. How can shopping centers attract more shoppers and recover their pre-COVID foot traffic?
Some malls are attracting visitors by looking beyond traditional retail with offerings such as gyms, amusement parks, and even entertainment complexes. And with more traditional mall anchors shutting their doors than ever, even smaller shopping centers are adding lifestyle experiences options in newly vacant spaces – and incorporating unique elements into traditional retail spaces.
In September 2023, the Chandler Fashion Center in Arizona opened a giant SCHEELS store in its mall. The 250,000-square-foot sporting goods store boasts more than just sneakers – visitors can ride on a 45-foot Ferris Wheel or marvel at a 16,000-gallon saltwater aquarium. And monthly visitation data to the mall reveals the power of this new retail destination, with foot traffic to the mall experiencing a major jump from October 2023 onward. The excitement of the new SCHEELS seems to be sustaining itself, with February 2024 visits 23.3% higher than the same period of 2023.
Restaurants, too, can help bring people into malls. The Southgate Mall in Missoula, Montana, experienced a jump in monthly visits following the opening of a Texas Roadhouse steakhouse in November 2023. Customers seem to be receptive to this new addition – the mall saw a sustained increase in foot traffic from November 2023 onward, with year-over-year (YoY) visit growth of 17.0% in February 2024.
The addition of Texas Roadhouse provides Missoula residents with a family-friendly dining experience while tapping into the evergreen popularity of steakhouses.
Malls that don’t want to choose between adding a dining option and incorporating a novel entertainment venue can blend the two and go the “eatertainment” route. One shopping center – North Carolina’s Cross Creek Mall – is proving just how effective these concepts can be for a mall looking to grow its foot traffic.
Eatertainment destination Main Event opened at the mall in August 2023, bringing laser tag, video games, virtual reality, and 18 bowling lanes with it. Main Event’s opening also provided a boost in foot traffic to the mall – monthly visits to Cross Creek Mall surged following the opening. And this foot traffic boost sustained itself, particularly into the colder winter months – January and February 2024 saw YoY growth of 12.3% and 25.1%, respectively.
Integrating entertainment options at malls is one strategy for driving visits, but there are plenty of other ways to bring people through the doors. Pop-ups have been a particularly popular option of late, especially as more online brands venture into the world of physical retail. And malls, which typically tend to leave a small portion of their storefronts vacant, can be the perfect place to host a retailer for a limited time.
One brand – Shein – has been a leader in the pop-up space, bringing its affordable fashion to malls in Las Vegas, Seattle, and Indianapolis. These short-term residencies – typically no longer than three to four days – allow shoppers to try the popular online retailer’s products before they buy.
Shein has enjoyed success with its mall residencies, evidenced by the foot traffic at the Woodfield Mall in Illinois, which hosted a three-day pop-up from December 15-17, 2023. The retail event was hugely popular, with visits reaching Super Saturday (the last weekend before Christmas) proportions – even though this year’s Super Saturday coincided with Christmas Eve Eve (December 23rd) and drove unusually high traffic spikes.
Shein pop-ups are typically very short – no more than three to four days. This format, known for creating a sense of urgency among shoppers, has proven powerful in driving store visits. But can longer-lasting pop-ups find success as well?
Foot traffic data from pop-ups hosted by Swedish home furnisher IKEA suggests that yes – longer-term residencies can be successful. The chain is working on growing its presence across the country, particularly in malls. To that end, IKEA has been experimenting with mall pop-ups, beginning with a six-month residency at the Rosedale Center in Roseville, Minnesota.
IKEA opened its store on February 16, 2024, and visits to the mall increased significantly immediately after. The first week of the pop-up saw a 12.9% growth in visits compared to a January 1-7, 2024 baseline. And by the third week of the pop-up, there were still noticeably more people frequenting the mall than before the launch.
The luxury retail segment has had a great few years, and malls are tapping into this popularity. Nearly 40% of new high-end store openings in 2023 were in mall settings, many in Sunbelt states like Texas, Florida, and Arizona, perhaps driven in part by demand from an influx of wealthy newcomers to those states.
A comparison of upscale shopping malls to standard shopping centers across Sunbelt States reveals just how popular high-end retail is in the region. Malls with a high percentage of luxury and designer stores like the Lenox Square Mall in Georgia or the NorthPark Center in Texas saw considerably more YoY visit growth than the average visit growth for shopping centers in their respective states.
Lenox Square Mall saw foot traffic increase 31.2% YoY in 2023, while shopping centers in Georgia saw their visits grow by just 2.7% YoY in the same period. Similar trends repeated in Louisiana, Arizona, California, and Florida. And while some of this growth may be due to the resilience of these wealthier shoppers in the face of inflation, one thing is clear – luxury is here to stay.
Malls are thriving, carving out spaces for themselves in a competitive retail environment. By prioritizing experiential retail, entertainment, pop-up shops, and luxury offerings, shopping centers across the country are remaining relevant in a rapidly changing retail world. And mall operators that recognize the power of innovation and evolve along with their customers can hope to meet with continued success.
Consumer preferences have shifted over the past five years. COVID-19 and inflation impacted shopping habits and behaviors across the retail space – and while some of the changes were short-lived, others appear to have more staying power. Now, with memories of the lockdowns fading, and as the inflation that plagued much of 2022 and 2023 wanes (hopefully), we analyzed location intelligence data to understand what the retail and dining landscape looks like today.
This report leverages historical and current foot traffic data and trade area analysis to better understand the current retail and dining landscape and reveal consumer trends likely to shape 2024 and beyond. Which segments have benefited most from the shifts of the past five years? How are legacy brands staying on top of current shopping and dining trends? Where are people shopping and dining in 2024? And what characterizes the modern consumer?
One of the major retail stories of the past five years has been the rise of Discount & Dollar Stores. Category leaders such as Dollar General and Dollar Tree expanded significantly prior to the pandemic, which helped these essential retailers attract large numbers of customers during the initial months of lockdowns.
During this period, many Discount & Dollar Stores invested in more than just their store count – several leading chains also expanded their grocery selection, allowing these companies to compete more directly for Grocery and Superstore shoppers. As Discount & Dollar Stores continued growing their store fleets – and as the pandemic gave way to inflation concerns – shoppers looking for more affordable consumables options gravitated to this segment.
Location intelligence shows that the rapidly opening stores and stocking them with fresh groceries is working – since 2019, Discount & Dollar Stores have slowly but steadily grown their visit share relative to the Grocery and Superstore sectors.
In 2019, Discount & Dollar retailers captured 15.1% of the visit share between the three categories analyzed. This number grew by a full percentage point between 2019 and 2020 and the trend has continued, with the category enjoying 16.6% of the relative visit share in 2023. Meanwhile, Superstores’ relative visit share decreased during the same period, dropping from 41.7% in 2019 to 40.0% in 2023, while the relative visit share of Grocery Stores remained mostly stable.
Still, consumers are not giving up their regular Grocery or Superstore run quite yet – over 80% of combined visits to Grocery Stores, Superstore, and Discount & Dollar Store sectors still go to Grocery Stores and Superstores. But the data does indicate that some shoppers are likely choosing to shop for groceries and other consumables at Discount & Dollar Stores. And CPG companies and category managers looking to reach customers where they shop may want to consider adding Discount & Dollar Stores to their distribution channels.
The key question that remains is how much of the gained visit share can the Discount & Dollar leaders maintain as the economic environment improves. This metric will be the strongest sign of whether the short term gains made within a favorable context drove long term value.
Superstores’ visit share may be shrinking somewhat in the face of Discount & Dollar Stores’ growth. But diving into the Superstore leaders reveals that these macro-shifts are having a different impact on the various sub-categories within the wider Superstore segment.
Walmart remains the undisputed Superstore leader thanks to its 61.8% share of overall visits to Walmart, Target, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s in 2023. But 61.8% is still lower than the 66.3% relative visits share that the Superstore behemoth enjoyed in 2019. Meanwhile, Target grew its relative visit share from 17.3% in 2019 to 19.3% in 2023, while the combined visit share of the three membership club brands increased from 16.5% in 2019 to 18.9% in the same period.
Some of the shift in visit share can be attributed to Walmart closing several locations while Target, Costco Sam's Club, and BJ's expanded their fleet – but other factors are likely at play.
Costco and Target attract the most affluent clientele of the five chains analyzed, which could explain why these chains have seen significant growth at a time when many consumers are operating with tighter budgets. The success of these companies also suggests that there are enough consumers willing to spend beyond the basics – as shown with Target’s Stanley Cup success (more on that below) – to support a varied product selection that includes higher-priced options. It also speaks to a high upside on a per customer basis for chains that have proven effective at providing higher-end products alongside those with a value orientation. This speaks to a unique capacity to effectively address “the middle” – an audience that is defined neither solely by value-seeking nor by high-end product proclivities.
Sam's Club and BJ’s also give shoppers an opportunity to save by buying in bulk and cutting down on shopping trips – and related gas expenses – which may also have contributed to their success. The increase in the relative visit share of wholesale clubs indicates that today’s consumer might react positively to more options for bulk purchases in non-warehouse club chains as well.
Retail is not the only sector that has seen slow and steady shifts in recent years – the dining space was also significantly impacted by pandemic restrictions of 2020-2021 and the inflation of 2022-2023. Location intelligence reveals shifts in both the types of establishments favored by consumers and in the in-store behaviors of dining consumers.
Convenience stores’ dining options have evolved in recent years, with today’s consumers heading to Wawa for a freshly made specialty hoagie or to Buc-ee’s to enjoy the chain’s variety of specialty snacks.
Analyzing the visit distribution among C-Stores and other discretionary dining categories (Fast Food and QSR, Restaurants, and Breakfast & Coffee, not including Grocery and Superstores) showcases the growing role of C-Stores in the dining space. Between 2019 and 2023, C-stores' visit share relative to the other discretionary dining categories jumped from 24.2% to 27.1%. The relative visit share of Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries & Dessert Shops also grew slightly during the period. Meanwhile, Restaurants’ relative visit share dropped from 13.8% to 11.7% and Fast Food & QSR’s dipped from 51.8% to 50.6%.
Several factors are likely driving this evolution. Most Restaurants shuttered temporarily at the height of the pandemic while C-Stores remained open – and consumers likely took the opportunity to get acquainted with C-Stores’ food-away-from-home options. And many C-Stores expanded their footprint in recent years, while some dining chains downsized, which likely also contributed to the changes in relative visit share between the segments.
But the continued growth of C-Stores between 2021 and 2022, and again between 2022 and 2023, indicates that many diners are now embracing C-Store food out of choice and not just due to necessity. The rise of the Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries & Dessert Shops category alongside C-Stores in the past five years may also highlight the current appetite for affordable grab-and-go food options. And with C-Store operators embracing the shifts brought on by the pandemic and actively expanding their food options, diners are increasingly likely to consider C-Stores for their portable meals and packaged snacks.
C-Store visitors are increasingly receptive to trying new products at their local c-store. So how can C-Store operators and CPG companies determine which products will best appeal to customers? Analyzing the trade areas of seven major chains – 7-Eleven, Wawa, Casey’s, QuikTrip, Cumberland Farms, Plaid Pantry, and Buc-ee’s – using the Spatial.ai: FollowGraph dataset reveals significant variance in food preferences between the chains’ visitor bases.
For instance, Plaid Pantry visitors were 55% more likely than the nationwide average to fall into the “Asian Food Enthusiasts” segment in 2023, in contrast with Casey’s visitors who are 7% less likely to belong to this psychographic. Residents of the trade areas of QuikTrip and Buc-ee’s rank highest for "Fried Chicken Lovers," while Cumberland Farms and Plaid Pantry visitors register the least interest. C-Store operators, QSR franchisees, packaged food manufacturers, and other stakeholders can leverage these insights to optimize food offerings, identify promising partnership opportunities, and find new venues for product testing.
While C-Stores stores may be the exciting story of the day, Full-Service Restaurants continue to play a major role in the wider dining landscape. And despite the ongoing economic headwinds, several dining brands and categories are seeing growth – although location intelligence suggests that in-restaurant behavior may be changing as well.
For example, the hourly visits distribution for leading steakhouse chains has shifted over the past five years: Between 2019 and 2023, Texas Roadhouse, LongHorn Steakhouse, and Outback Steakhouse all saw a jump in the share of visits occurring between 2:00 PM and 6:00 PM – not typical steak eating hours.
Outback and Texas Roadhouse offer early bird dinner specials while LongHorn has a happy hour, so some diners may be choosing to visit these restaurant chains earlier in the evening in order to stretch their eating out budget. Other consumers who are still working from home most of the week may also be eating on a more flexible schedule, and these diners may be having more late lunches in 2023 when compared to 2019. Restaurant operators, drink providers, and menu developers may want to adapt their offerings to this emerging mid-afternoon rush.
The data examined above shows changes within key retail and dining segments over the past five years. So what do these shifts reveal about today’s consumer? What are shoppers and diners looking for in 2024?
The beginning of 2024 was marked by an Arctic blast and plunging temperatures. Consumers, unsurprisingly, hunkered down at home – and foot traffic to many retail categories took a dip. But the declines were short-lived, and by the fourth week of January 2024 foot traffic had rebounded across major categories.
Still, zooming into weekly visit performance for key retail and dining categories for the first eight weeks of the year reveals that the cold did not impact all segments equally – and the subsequent resurgence boosted some sectors more than others.
Discount & Dollar Stores had the strongest start to 2024, with YoY visits up almost every week since the start of the year, and the category showing even more substantial growth once the cold spell subsided. The Grocery category also succeeded in exceeding 2023 weekly visit levels almost every week, although its visit increases were more subdued than those in the Discount & Dollar Store segment.
Superstore and C-Store experienced relatively muted YoY declines in early January and saw significant weekly visit growth as Q1 progressed, with C-Stores outperforming Superstores by late January 2024. And Dining – which suffered a particularly heavy blow in early 2024 – also rebounded with gusto, offering another strong indicator of the resilience of today’s consumer.
Like in the wider Dining industry, weekly YoY visits to the QSR segment quickly rebounded following the unusual cold of the first three weeks of January 2024. And three chains from across the QSR spectrum – legacy chain Wingstop, rapidly expanding Raising Cane’s, and regional cult favorite Whataburger – are seeing particularly strong foot traffic performances.
Diving deeper into the location intelligence reveals that the three chains’ success may be due in part to their visitor base composition: The trade areas of all three brands included a larger share of four-person households compared to the nationwide average of 24.6%.
Wingstop, Raising Cane’s, and Whataburger’s menus all include larger orders to create shareable meals. And larger households seem to be particularly receptive to dining options that allow them to save money, which could explain the significant share of 4+ person households that visit these chains.
The success of these diverse QSR chains also indicates that, although larger households may have more expenses – and might therefore be more impacted by inflation – they can also drive visits to brands that cater to their needs. So dining operators and food manufacturers looking to attract family demographics may consider offering larger meal combos or larger packaging to help larger households splurge on affordable luxuries without breaking the bank.
Perhaps the most significant sign that today’s consumers are still willing to spend money on non-essentials is the recent success of the Starbucks X Stanley “Pink Cup”. The cup has caused such a sensation that re-sellers ask for up to six times the original $50 price – and for those unwilling to shell out the big bucks on the cup, enterprising cup owners offer photo shoots with the product for $5.
The Starbucks X Stanley “Pink Cup” was released on January 3rd, 2024 and could only be bought at Starbucks kiosks located inside a Target. Viral videos of the release circulated on social media, showing eager crowds lining up early in the morning for the chance to be first to grab their cup. Location intelligence reveals that these early morning visits were significant enough to change Target’s typical hourly visit pattern.
Foot traffic between 7:00 AM and 9:00 AM on January 3rd, 2024 accounted for 4.4% of daily visits, compared to 2.6% of daily visits occurring during that time slot on a typical Wednesday in January or February. And demand for the pink Stanley cup drove a spike in daily visits as well – overall daily visits to Target on January 3rd were 18.7% higher than the average Wednesday visits in January and February 2024.
The visit trends to Target on Pink Cup Day are particularly impressive given the freezing weather in some regions of the country and because consumers were coming off the holiday shopping season. And the success of the cup shows that 2024’s shopper is willing to show up – especially for a viral product. Creating buzzy marketing campaigns, then, may be the key to driving retail success.
The retail changes of the past few years have left their mark on how people shop, eat, and spend. And keeping ahead of these changes allows companies and product managers to ensure they can tailor their offerings – whether product selection or marketing campaigns – to the right audience.
