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Wingstop and Shake Shack are on a roll. We dove into recent location intelligence data to understand what is driving success at these two dining leaders.
Texas-based Wingstop and New York-based Shake Shack are growing fast. Over the past twelve months, both chains outperformed the fast casual segment and posted impressive traffic increases – in March 2024, visits to Wingstop and Shake Shack were up 25.6% and 32.6%, respectively, compared to March 2023.
Some of the visit strength is likely driven by the chains’ recent expansion. Last year, Wingstop opened around 200 of its almost 2000 U.S. locations, while Shake Shack opened around 40 new restaurants domestically for a total of more than 300 locations in December 2023.
A rapidly expanding footprint is not the only factor driving success for these fast casual leaders. Location intelligence suggests that both chains attract visitors looking for a more leisurely dining experience, which could be helping Wingstop and Shake Shack stay ahead of the competition.
Compared to the average fast-casual dining venue, Wingstop and Shake Shack receive fewer visits during the lunch rush (12:00 to 2:59 PM) when diners are looking for a quick bite to eat before returning to work. Instead, the two chains attract a larger share of visits in the evening hours (between 7:00 and 9:59 PM) – when guests tend to have more time to savor their meals. Both chains also receive a relatively sizable portion of their visits on weekends, when patrons have more time to linger on premises.
And the data indicates that Shake Shack and Wingstop visitors do indeed linger longer than the average fast casual patron: Over half of visits to Wingstop and almost two-thirds of Shake Shack visits last longer than 15 minutes, compared to just 48.2% of visits lasting 15+ minutes for the wider fast casual segment.
It seems, then, that consumers are not just visiting Shake Shack or Wingstop for a burger and shake combo or a platter of steaming wings. The data suggests that many guests are also visiting these chains during more leisurely times when they can focus on the dining experience and take in the chains’ atmosphere.
As the companies continue to expand into new markets and deepen their reach in existing ones, the willingness of consumers to dedicate evenings and weekends to eating at Shake Shack and Wingstop bodes well for these chains in 2024 – and beyond.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit placer.ai/blog.
We recently looked at where the home improvement retail category stood after 1Q 2024, noting that industry had seen improved visit trends and that we could see continued momentum in the second half of 2024 as housing turnover picks up. As a follow up to that analysis, we thought we’d examine a wider range of retailers in the home improvement retail category. Below, we’ve presented year-over-year visitation trends for the top retailers in the home improvement category in terms of visits. While Home Depot and Lowe’s are down on a year-over-year basis, we see that a number of smaller box chains like Harbor Freight and Ace Hardware are seeing year-over-year visits (Large-box Menards has also been relatively strong).
The trend of smaller box home improvement retailers outperforming has actually been going on for a while. Below, we show share visit data from 2017-2023 for the largest home improvement retailers. Here we also see big gains from Ace Hardware and Harbor Freight
What explains these trends? We believe a lot of it boils down to store expansion and migration trends. Both chains have been growing. We discussed Ace Hardware’s unit growth plans back in November 2022, with the chain reaching 5,800 stores globally (and more than 4,700 in the U.S.) after opening 160 locations in 2022 and 170 in 2023. We’ve also called out Harbor Freight’s recent growth–it was one of the reasons we named it to our Top 10 Brands to watch list this year–and the chain now operates almost 1,500 locations across the U.S. Below, using Placer’s new Map Studio feature to plot Harbor Freight and Ace Hardware locations nationwide. We see a heavy concentration of stores in the Eastern U.S. for both chains.
We’ve also presented a map from Placer’s Migration Report below showing population percentage growth from January 2020 to January 2024 at the market level. Green dots represent markers that have seen permanent population growth, while red represents markets that have seen population declines.
Examining the two maps together sheds some light on the success of Harbor Freight and Ace Hardware–they have a high degree of overlap with some of the highest growth markets in the U.S. We’ve covered the migration of consumers to these markets in the past, including markets have populations smaller than 500,000 people and often under 200,000 individuals. Here, having a smaller format box is an advantage for chains like Harbor Freight and Ace Hardware. Home Depot and Lowe’s both average more than 100,000 square feet per store, which can be difficult to justify in a smaller population market. However, the average Harbor Freight store is 15,000-16,500 square feet and the average Ace Hardware is 10,000 square feet (although ranging between 3,000 and 30,000 square feet). This has allowed both chains to tap smaller markets where much of the population (and household income) has transferred to.
Not surprising, we’ve seen a flood of announcements about retail chains planning to adopt smaller store formats over the past few months. We’ve previously discussed examples across a number of retail categories, including home furnishing (Arhaus and Ethan Allen) and department stores (Bloomie’s), but there has been a notable uptick in announcements from retailers unveiling smaller format stores, including Best Buy, Macy’s, and Whole Foods. Lowe’s has recognized this trend, announcing plans to more aggressively open stores in rural markets.
At a time when it’s more expensive for retailers to operate physical stores due to higher interest rates, higher rent costs (especially among A malls properties), minimum wage increases and labor scarcity, retailers are looking for any way they can to maximize the returns on their store properties, including retail media networks, store-in-store partnerships, and co-branded stores. However, in addition to generating more revenue from ancillary services like advertising or store-in-store partnerships, it’s clear that utilizing a smaller box to address population migration trends has become an increasingly attractive option
Commercial real estate is constantly coming up with new and inventive concepts, and one of the latest ideas is the dog park bar. Chains such as Bark Social and Fetch Park are two such entrants that noted the rise in pet ownership during Covid, and are capitalizing on pet owners’ love for their dogs, as well as desire for human companionship and playdates for their canines.
These dog park bars combine the joy of seeing your furry friend run around with other dogs, while the owners can enjoy a cold frosty brew.
Fetch Park has five locations in Georgia, including Buckhead and Alpharetta. Meanwhile, Bark Social has locations in Baltimore, Bethesda, Alexandria, and Philadelphia, with upcoming plans for Los Angeles and Columbia.
Fetch Park includes events such as “Ales, Tails, and Trivia”, weekly karaoke nights, stand-up comedy, and even a singles’ mingle to meet other like-minded pooch people. Bark Social styles itself as a bar for dog lovers, and includes Bark Rangers that oversee puppy activities such as holding your pet’s first birthday party. There is even doggy daycare and summer camp available.
And in sunny LA, it’s not the San Vicente Bungalows or SoHo House that’s getting attention, it’s Dog PPL in Santa Monica, a private dog park whose $80/month membership lets your dog play in style. There are “ruffarrees” on hand to keep the calm while owners socialize and imbibe rosé or kombucha. It can even serve as a co-working location or gym substitute with its dog yoga classes.
Source: Dog PPL
If you’re in the Midwest, check out Barkside in Detroit. This 10,000 sq ft location in the West Village combines a dog park, bar, and beer garden all in one. There is a special focus on Detroit and Michigan brands when it comes to libations, which include beer, wine, spritzers, and a variety of coffee drinks.
And if you truly can’t part from your furry friend for even a minute, new BARK Air has partnered with a jet charter service and offers a Gulfstream V so you and your pet can travel in style. For the price of $6,000 one-way, amenities include dog champagne (aka chicken broth), special blankets and pillows, and delicious dog treats. This service is only available for NY, LA, and London jetsetters, but if this concept takes off and comes to more cities, that would truly be paw-some.
If there’s one sector of the retail industry that continues to innovate, evolve and perform at a high level, it’s convenience stores. Convenience chains remained in lock step with their consumers over the past few years, a difficult feat for many retailers, and benefited from suburban and rural migration patterns. 2023 was a banner year for C-Stores, with visits to large scale chains growing by 6% compared to 2022 (though some of the growth was due to chain consolidation).
C-Stores have done a fantastic job of attracting more visitors through additions like EV charging, local autonomous delivery, and expanded service offerings. However, the winning formula for many C-Store chains has been the bet on fresh, prepared and made to order foods. Chains have transformed consumer thinking around convenience driven foodservice and the concept has won over consumer’s appetites and wallets.
Chains that prioritize prepared foods have higher dwell times, more weekend visits and strong traffic growth according to our data. In a retail industry that prioritizes uniqueness in experience and product, more foodservice options clearly move the needle for visitors. Compared to the large chain C-store average dwell time of 10 minutes in Q1 2024, chains such as Buc-ee’s, Wawa, and Sheetz have higher dwell times by at least a minute, while chains associated with grab-and-go have shorter than average dwell times.
Looking a little more closely at Buc-ee’s, the darling of both the southeast and TikTok fame, the dwell time is double the average of large chain C-Stores. Buc-ee’s has the unique ability to blend entertainment, kitsch and prepared foods in a way that enchants visitors. Maybe it’s the chain’s Beaver Nuggets or the house-smoked barbeque, or its beloved mascot?
Buc-ee’s has the highest percentage of visits lasting 15 minutes or longer, and excels in visits between 15 and 45 minutes compared to other C-Store chains (below). More than half of the visits to Buc-ee’s occur between Friday-Sunday, more than any other competitor. Buc-ee’s can be seen as a destination C-Store as opposed to a daily stop due to the size and location of stores, which certainly contributes to the higher dwell time. Other C-Store chains looking to improve food offerings can use Buc-ee’s as a source of inspiration when it comes to breadth of assortment and mix of specialty packaged items and foodservice options.
The most surprising metrics come from Casey’s, a chain that has publicly committed to foodservice, but can’t seem to capture longer visits. Casey’s dwell time more closely mirrors that of grab-and-go chains like Maverik or Kwik Trip than it does Buc-ee’s or Wawa. Looking at the differences in demographic segments between Buc-ee’s, Wawa and Casey’s, Wawa and Buc-ee’s attract a visitor that is suburban, younger and more affluent than Casey’s. There may be a correlation between made to order offerings and suburban locations that’s benefitting chains focused on both.
The C-Store evolution is quickly blurring the lines between grocery, QSR and traditional convenience models, and is a bellwether of what’s to come across other sectors in retail. The bi-furcation of c-store formats is likely to accelerate throughout the remainder of 2024. Blending the right product selection, on-demand offerings and a beneficial experience for visitors is necessary in today’s retail climate.
Sprouts, the natural and organic food focused grocery chain operating in 23 states nationwide, is going through a growth spurt. We dove into the visit and audience data to see where the chain stands today and what the rest of 2024 – and beyond – may have in store.
Sprouts is on the rise. Year-over-year (YoY) visits increased every month of last year and have been outperforming the nationwide Grocery average since mid-2023. And the chain continued to grow in Q1 2024, with visits up an impressive 13.3% and 11.9% in February and March 2024, respectively – an impressive feat given the comparison to an already strong Q1 2023.
Some of the growth is driven by expansion – the company opened 30 new stores in 2023 and expects to add 35 additional locations in 2024. But the increase in foot traffic is also a testament to the potential of specialty grocery stores to leverage their unique product selection to attract grocery shoppers, even in the face of growing competition in the space.
The relatively high income of Sprout’s visitor base is likely also helping the chain stay ahead of the grocery pack: Median HHI in Sprout’s trade areas nationwide is higher than the U.S. median HHI, and the data shows a similar trend in Sprout’s eight growth markets.
The relative affluence of Sprouts shoppers means that this segment may not be as impacted by high food prices as other grocery shoppers – so the retail headwinds predicted this year are not likely to slow down Sprout’s growth potential as the chain continues expanding its reach in 2024.
While Sprouts’ visitors across states seem to share a relatively high income level, diving deeper into the location intelligence data reveals some major differences in both in-store behavior and overall market composition.
For example, the share of weekend (as opposed to weekday) visits to Sprouts in Q1 2024 varied significantly – from 31.3% in California to 36.6% in Virginia. Shoppers in the company’s various growth markets also visited stores at different hours throughout the day: Mornings (8:00 AM to 9:59 PM) were popular with California, Delaware, and Pennsylvania residents, while evenings were favored by Pennsylvanians, Floridians, and Texans.
Understanding the in-store behavior of shoppers in each state will likely help Sprouts adapt its operations and staffing schedules as the company continues expanding in these markets.
In addition to highlighting the variance between the shopping habits of Sprouts visitors across markets, diving deeper into the location intelligence data also reveals differences in the relationship between Sprouts shoppers and the wider grocery markets in each state.
The chart below shows the most popular grocery alternative for Sprouts shoppers in each state (which other grocery chain was the most visited by Sprouts visitors) and what share of Sprouts shoppers visited that grocery chain in Q1 2024.
In Florida, over 90% of Sprouts shoppers also visited a Publix location in Q1 2024 – indicating that Sprouts in the Sunshine State is operating in a relatively consolidated grocery market and operating against an established crowd favorite. Meanwhile, only 46.9% of Texan Sprouts visitors also visited a Kroger – the other grocery chain most visited by Sprouts visitors – indicating that the Texas grocery market may be more fragmented, and so may respond to a different expansion strategy, than the Florida grocery market.
Sprouts strong visitation trends indicate that the grocery chain is expanding into willing markets, and the brand’s relatively affluent shopper base means that Sprouts is unlikely to be too impacted by whatever economic headwinds may lie ahead. As the chain continues making its presence felt in newer markets, location intelligence suggests that Sprouts has plenty of room to grow in 2024 and beyond.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit our blog at placer.ai.
Crocs’ rebrand from ugly to chic is one of retail’s most fascinating Cinderella stories (glass clog, anyone?). We dive into the latest location analytics and demographic data to explore the consumer behavior that drives Crocs’ continued success.
Embarking on a journey to become a fashionable brand, in 2017 Crocs inked a partnership with Christopher Kane who became the first designer to collaborate with the brand. A stampede of designer and celebrity-inspired styles followed in 2018 and 2019 including Balenciaga's iconic ten-inch platform Croc and Post Malone's take on the classic clog.
During the pandemic, Crocs built on its success in fashion and celebrity circles, and gained a new following from comfort-first shoe shoppers stuck at home or running errands.
Taking a wide lens on Crocs’ foot traffic since 2018 shows how a strategy of designer partnerships as well as recognition as a functional shoe drives visits to the brand. In 2018 and 2019, as designer Crocs rolled out, visits to the brand climbed to new heights.
And since the wider retail reopening in 2021, Crocs’ foot traffic growth has accelerated as comfort reigns supreme in and out of the home.
Compared to a Q1 2018 baseline, Crocs saw its largest monthly visit peak in Q3 2023 (199.1%) – the critical summer period. And foot traffic in the most recent Q1 2024 was 43.7% above the Q1 2018 baseline. This indicates that the shoe’s acceptance within pop-culture combined with demand for comfortable footwear is elevating the brand’s traffic to new levels.
As Crocs continues to gain traction, the company appears to be pursuing a real estate strategy aimed at repositioning the brand as an affordable shoe for the whole family. Although Crocs shrank its store count in the years leading up to the pandemic, the brand has now begun opening new locations in outlet malls – five in 2023, with plans for 30 new stores in outlet malls in 2024.
Analyzing Crocs’ trade areas between 2018 and 2023 suggests that this strategy is helping the brand reach its audience. According to the STI: Popstats 2023 dataset, in 2018, there was a gap of more than $6K between the median household income (HHI) in Crocs’ potential market ($81.0K/year) and in its captured market ($74.7K/year). But by 2023, the median HHI of the brand’s potential market ($75.5K) and captured market ($75.9K) had more closely aligned. This indicates that by opening stores in outlet malls – where consumers looking for discounts are likely to shop – Crocs’ potential market more closely reflects its actual visitors and the brand can drive additional traffic from its target audience.
From humble beginnings, Crocs have become runway-famous. And yet, the clogs are more popular than ever with the everyday consumer – at home or out on the town. How will Crocs shape the next chapter of this foam fairytale?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
The first American mall opened in 1956 and reinvented retail – within a decade there were over 4,500 malls across the country. But a rise in e-commerce coupled with the oversaturation of mall options across the country paved the way for mall visits to slow, and many predicted that malls would go the way of the dinosaur.
But although malls were hit hard over the past few years as lockdowns and rising costs contributed to a significant drop in foot traffic, shopping centers have proven resilient. Leading players in the space have consistently reinvented themselves and explored alternate ways to draw in crowds – and as inflation cools, malls are bouncing back as well.
This white paper analyzes the Placer.ai Shopping Center Industry – a collection of over 3000 shopping centers across the United States – as well as the Placer.ai’s Mall Indexes, which focus on top-tier Indoor Malls, Open-Air Shopping Centers, Outlet Malls. The report examines how visits are shifting and where behaviors are changing – and where they’re staying the same – and takes a closer look at the strategies malls are using to attract shoppers in 2024.
Malls experienced a rocky few years as pandemic-related restrictions and economic headwinds kept many shoppers at home, and visits to all mall types in 2021 were between 10.7% to 15.3% lower than in 2019. But foot traffic trends improved significantly in 2022 – likely due to the fading out of COVID restrictions.
By 2023, visits to the wider Shopping Center Industry were just 2.3% lower than they had been in 2019, and the visit gaps for Indoor Malls and Open-Air Shopping Centers had narrowed to 5.8% and 1.0% lower, respectively. Outlet Malls also saw visits ticking up once again, with the visit gap compared to 2019 narrowing to 8.5% in 2023 after having dropped to 11.3% in 2022. This more sustained foot traffic dip may stem from consumers’ desire to save on gas costs or the impacts of inclement weather. However, the narrowing visit gaps suggest that shoppers are increasingly returning to the segment, and foot traffic may yet pick up again in 2024.
COVID-19 impacted more than just visit numbers – it also changed in-store consumer behavior. And now, with the Coronavirus a distant memory for many, some of these pandemic-acquired habits are fading away, while other shifts appear to be holding steady.
One visit metric that appears to have reverted to pre-COVID norms is the share of weekday vs. weekend visits. Weekday visits had increased in 2021 – at the height of COVID – as consumers found themselves with more free time midweek, but the balance of weekday vs. weekend visits has now returned to 2019 levels.
In 2023, the Shopping Center Industry, which includes a number of grocery-anchored centers along with open-air shopping centers and their relatively large variety of dining options, saw the largest share of weekday visits, followed by Indoor Malls. Outlet Malls received the lowest share of weekday visits – around 55% – likely due to the longer distances usually required to drive to these malls, making them ideal destinations for weekend day trips.
While the day of the week that people frequent malls hasn't changed significantly since 2019, there is one notable difference in mall foot traffic pre- and post-pandemic. Almost all mall categories are seeing fewer during the late morning-midday and late evening dayparts, while the amount of people heading to a mall in the afternoon and early evening has increased.
In 2019, Indoor Malls saw 20.1% of visits occurring between 10:00am and 1:00pm, but that share decreased to 18.6% in 2023. Meanwhile, the share of visits between 4:00-7:00 pm rose from 29.1% in 2019 to 32.4% in 2023. Similar patterns repeated across all shopping center categories, with the 1:00-4:00pm daypart seeing a slight increase, the 4:00-7:00 pm daypart receiving the largest boost and the 7:00-10:00 pm daypart seeing the largest drop. So although changes in work habits have not altered the weekly visit distribution, it seems like hybrid workers are taking advantage of their new, and likely more flexible schedules to frequent malls in the afternoon instead of reserving their mall trips for after work. The significant numbers of Americans moving to the suburbs in recent years may also be contributing to the decline of late night visits, with these suburban newcomers perhaps less likely to spend time outside the house during the evening hours.
Although malls have enjoyed consistent growth in foot traffic over the past two years, visits still remain below 2019 levels. How can shopping centers attract more shoppers and recover their pre-COVID foot traffic?
Some malls are attracting visitors by looking beyond traditional retail with offerings such as gyms, amusement parks, and even entertainment complexes. And with more traditional mall anchors shutting their doors than ever, even smaller shopping centers are adding lifestyle experiences options in newly vacant spaces – and incorporating unique elements into traditional retail spaces.
In September 2023, the Chandler Fashion Center in Arizona opened a giant SCHEELS store in its mall. The 250,000-square-foot sporting goods store boasts more than just sneakers – visitors can ride on a 45-foot Ferris Wheel or marvel at a 16,000-gallon saltwater aquarium. And monthly visitation data to the mall reveals the power of this new retail destination, with foot traffic to the mall experiencing a major jump from October 2023 onward. The excitement of the new SCHEELS seems to be sustaining itself, with February 2024 visits 23.3% higher than the same period of 2023.
Restaurants, too, can help bring people into malls. The Southgate Mall in Missoula, Montana, experienced a jump in monthly visits following the opening of a Texas Roadhouse steakhouse in November 2023. Customers seem to be receptive to this new addition – the mall saw a sustained increase in foot traffic from November 2023 onward, with year-over-year (YoY) visit growth of 17.0% in February 2024.
The addition of Texas Roadhouse provides Missoula residents with a family-friendly dining experience while tapping into the evergreen popularity of steakhouses.
Malls that don’t want to choose between adding a dining option and incorporating a novel entertainment venue can blend the two and go the “eatertainment” route. One shopping center – North Carolina’s Cross Creek Mall – is proving just how effective these concepts can be for a mall looking to grow its foot traffic.
Eatertainment destination Main Event opened at the mall in August 2023, bringing laser tag, video games, virtual reality, and 18 bowling lanes with it. Main Event’s opening also provided a boost in foot traffic to the mall – monthly visits to Cross Creek Mall surged following the opening. And this foot traffic boost sustained itself, particularly into the colder winter months – January and February 2024 saw YoY growth of 12.3% and 25.1%, respectively.
Integrating entertainment options at malls is one strategy for driving visits, but there are plenty of other ways to bring people through the doors. Pop-ups have been a particularly popular option of late, especially as more online brands venture into the world of physical retail. And malls, which typically tend to leave a small portion of their storefronts vacant, can be the perfect place to host a retailer for a limited time.
One brand – Shein – has been a leader in the pop-up space, bringing its affordable fashion to malls in Las Vegas, Seattle, and Indianapolis. These short-term residencies – typically no longer than three to four days – allow shoppers to try the popular online retailer’s products before they buy.
Shein has enjoyed success with its mall residencies, evidenced by the foot traffic at the Woodfield Mall in Illinois, which hosted a three-day pop-up from December 15-17, 2023. The retail event was hugely popular, with visits reaching Super Saturday (the last weekend before Christmas) proportions – even though this year’s Super Saturday coincided with Christmas Eve Eve (December 23rd) and drove unusually high traffic spikes.
Shein pop-ups are typically very short – no more than three to four days. This format, known for creating a sense of urgency among shoppers, has proven powerful in driving store visits. But can longer-lasting pop-ups find success as well?
Foot traffic data from pop-ups hosted by Swedish home furnisher IKEA suggests that yes – longer-term residencies can be successful. The chain is working on growing its presence across the country, particularly in malls. To that end, IKEA has been experimenting with mall pop-ups, beginning with a six-month residency at the Rosedale Center in Roseville, Minnesota.
IKEA opened its store on February 16, 2024, and visits to the mall increased significantly immediately after. The first week of the pop-up saw a 12.9% growth in visits compared to a January 1-7, 2024 baseline. And by the third week of the pop-up, there were still noticeably more people frequenting the mall than before the launch.
The luxury retail segment has had a great few years, and malls are tapping into this popularity. Nearly 40% of new high-end store openings in 2023 were in mall settings, many in Sunbelt states like Texas, Florida, and Arizona, perhaps driven in part by demand from an influx of wealthy newcomers to those states.
A comparison of upscale shopping malls to standard shopping centers across Sunbelt States reveals just how popular high-end retail is in the region. Malls with a high percentage of luxury and designer stores like the Lenox Square Mall in Georgia or the NorthPark Center in Texas saw considerably more YoY visit growth than the average visit growth for shopping centers in their respective states.
Lenox Square Mall saw foot traffic increase 31.2% YoY in 2023, while shopping centers in Georgia saw their visits grow by just 2.7% YoY in the same period. Similar trends repeated in Louisiana, Arizona, California, and Florida. And while some of this growth may be due to the resilience of these wealthier shoppers in the face of inflation, one thing is clear – luxury is here to stay.
Malls are thriving, carving out spaces for themselves in a competitive retail environment. By prioritizing experiential retail, entertainment, pop-up shops, and luxury offerings, shopping centers across the country are remaining relevant in a rapidly changing retail world. And mall operators that recognize the power of innovation and evolve along with their customers can hope to meet with continued success.
Consumer preferences have shifted over the past five years. COVID-19 and inflation impacted shopping habits and behaviors across the retail space – and while some of the changes were short-lived, others appear to have more staying power. Now, with memories of the lockdowns fading, and as the inflation that plagued much of 2022 and 2023 wanes (hopefully), we analyzed location intelligence data to understand what the retail and dining landscape looks like today.
This report leverages historical and current foot traffic data and trade area analysis to better understand the current retail and dining landscape and reveal consumer trends likely to shape 2024 and beyond. Which segments have benefited most from the shifts of the past five years? How are legacy brands staying on top of current shopping and dining trends? Where are people shopping and dining in 2024? And what characterizes the modern consumer?
One of the major retail stories of the past five years has been the rise of Discount & Dollar Stores. Category leaders such as Dollar General and Dollar Tree expanded significantly prior to the pandemic, which helped these essential retailers attract large numbers of customers during the initial months of lockdowns.
During this period, many Discount & Dollar Stores invested in more than just their store count – several leading chains also expanded their grocery selection, allowing these companies to compete more directly for Grocery and Superstore shoppers. As Discount & Dollar Stores continued growing their store fleets – and as the pandemic gave way to inflation concerns – shoppers looking for more affordable consumables options gravitated to this segment.
Location intelligence shows that the rapidly opening stores and stocking them with fresh groceries is working – since 2019, Discount & Dollar Stores have slowly but steadily grown their visit share relative to the Grocery and Superstore sectors.
In 2019, Discount & Dollar retailers captured 15.1% of the visit share between the three categories analyzed. This number grew by a full percentage point between 2019 and 2020 and the trend has continued, with the category enjoying 16.6% of the relative visit share in 2023. Meanwhile, Superstores’ relative visit share decreased during the same period, dropping from 41.7% in 2019 to 40.0% in 2023, while the relative visit share of Grocery Stores remained mostly stable.
Still, consumers are not giving up their regular Grocery or Superstore run quite yet – over 80% of combined visits to Grocery Stores, Superstore, and Discount & Dollar Store sectors still go to Grocery Stores and Superstores. But the data does indicate that some shoppers are likely choosing to shop for groceries and other consumables at Discount & Dollar Stores. And CPG companies and category managers looking to reach customers where they shop may want to consider adding Discount & Dollar Stores to their distribution channels.
The key question that remains is how much of the gained visit share can the Discount & Dollar leaders maintain as the economic environment improves. This metric will be the strongest sign of whether the short term gains made within a favorable context drove long term value.
Superstores’ visit share may be shrinking somewhat in the face of Discount & Dollar Stores’ growth. But diving into the Superstore leaders reveals that these macro-shifts are having a different impact on the various sub-categories within the wider Superstore segment.
Walmart remains the undisputed Superstore leader thanks to its 61.8% share of overall visits to Walmart, Target, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s in 2023. But 61.8% is still lower than the 66.3% relative visits share that the Superstore behemoth enjoyed in 2019. Meanwhile, Target grew its relative visit share from 17.3% in 2019 to 19.3% in 2023, while the combined visit share of the three membership club brands increased from 16.5% in 2019 to 18.9% in the same period.
Some of the shift in visit share can be attributed to Walmart closing several locations while Target, Costco Sam's Club, and BJ's expanded their fleet – but other factors are likely at play.
Costco and Target attract the most affluent clientele of the five chains analyzed, which could explain why these chains have seen significant growth at a time when many consumers are operating with tighter budgets. The success of these companies also suggests that there are enough consumers willing to spend beyond the basics – as shown with Target’s Stanley Cup success (more on that below) – to support a varied product selection that includes higher-priced options. It also speaks to a high upside on a per customer basis for chains that have proven effective at providing higher-end products alongside those with a value orientation. This speaks to a unique capacity to effectively address “the middle” – an audience that is defined neither solely by value-seeking nor by high-end product proclivities.
Sam's Club and BJ’s also give shoppers an opportunity to save by buying in bulk and cutting down on shopping trips – and related gas expenses – which may also have contributed to their success. The increase in the relative visit share of wholesale clubs indicates that today’s consumer might react positively to more options for bulk purchases in non-warehouse club chains as well.
Retail is not the only sector that has seen slow and steady shifts in recent years – the dining space was also significantly impacted by pandemic restrictions of 2020-2021 and the inflation of 2022-2023. Location intelligence reveals shifts in both the types of establishments favored by consumers and in the in-store behaviors of dining consumers.
Convenience stores’ dining options have evolved in recent years, with today’s consumers heading to Wawa for a freshly made specialty hoagie or to Buc-ee’s to enjoy the chain’s variety of specialty snacks.
Analyzing the visit distribution among C-Stores and other discretionary dining categories (Fast Food and QSR, Restaurants, and Breakfast & Coffee, not including Grocery and Superstores) showcases the growing role of C-Stores in the dining space. Between 2019 and 2023, C-stores' visit share relative to the other discretionary dining categories jumped from 24.2% to 27.1%. The relative visit share of Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries & Dessert Shops also grew slightly during the period. Meanwhile, Restaurants’ relative visit share dropped from 13.8% to 11.7% and Fast Food & QSR’s dipped from 51.8% to 50.6%.
Several factors are likely driving this evolution. Most Restaurants shuttered temporarily at the height of the pandemic while C-Stores remained open – and consumers likely took the opportunity to get acquainted with C-Stores’ food-away-from-home options. And many C-Stores expanded their footprint in recent years, while some dining chains downsized, which likely also contributed to the changes in relative visit share between the segments.
But the continued growth of C-Stores between 2021 and 2022, and again between 2022 and 2023, indicates that many diners are now embracing C-Store food out of choice and not just due to necessity. The rise of the Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries & Dessert Shops category alongside C-Stores in the past five years may also highlight the current appetite for affordable grab-and-go food options. And with C-Store operators embracing the shifts brought on by the pandemic and actively expanding their food options, diners are increasingly likely to consider C-Stores for their portable meals and packaged snacks.
C-Store visitors are increasingly receptive to trying new products at their local c-store. So how can C-Store operators and CPG companies determine which products will best appeal to customers? Analyzing the trade areas of seven major chains – 7-Eleven, Wawa, Casey’s, QuikTrip, Cumberland Farms, Plaid Pantry, and Buc-ee’s – using the Spatial.ai: FollowGraph dataset reveals significant variance in food preferences between the chains’ visitor bases.
For instance, Plaid Pantry visitors were 55% more likely than the nationwide average to fall into the “Asian Food Enthusiasts” segment in 2023, in contrast with Casey’s visitors who are 7% less likely to belong to this psychographic. Residents of the trade areas of QuikTrip and Buc-ee’s rank highest for "Fried Chicken Lovers," while Cumberland Farms and Plaid Pantry visitors register the least interest. C-Store operators, QSR franchisees, packaged food manufacturers, and other stakeholders can leverage these insights to optimize food offerings, identify promising partnership opportunities, and find new venues for product testing.
While C-Stores stores may be the exciting story of the day, Full-Service Restaurants continue to play a major role in the wider dining landscape. And despite the ongoing economic headwinds, several dining brands and categories are seeing growth – although location intelligence suggests that in-restaurant behavior may be changing as well.
For example, the hourly visits distribution for leading steakhouse chains has shifted over the past five years: Between 2019 and 2023, Texas Roadhouse, LongHorn Steakhouse, and Outback Steakhouse all saw a jump in the share of visits occurring between 2:00 PM and 6:00 PM – not typical steak eating hours.
Outback and Texas Roadhouse offer early bird dinner specials while LongHorn has a happy hour, so some diners may be choosing to visit these restaurant chains earlier in the evening in order to stretch their eating out budget. Other consumers who are still working from home most of the week may also be eating on a more flexible schedule, and these diners may be having more late lunches in 2023 when compared to 2019. Restaurant operators, drink providers, and menu developers may want to adapt their offerings to this emerging mid-afternoon rush.
The data examined above shows changes within key retail and dining segments over the past five years. So what do these shifts reveal about today’s consumer? What are shoppers and diners looking for in 2024?
The beginning of 2024 was marked by an Arctic blast and plunging temperatures. Consumers, unsurprisingly, hunkered down at home – and foot traffic to many retail categories took a dip. But the declines were short-lived, and by the fourth week of January 2024 foot traffic had rebounded across major categories.
Still, zooming into weekly visit performance for key retail and dining categories for the first eight weeks of the year reveals that the cold did not impact all segments equally – and the subsequent resurgence boosted some sectors more than others.
Discount & Dollar Stores had the strongest start to 2024, with YoY visits up almost every week since the start of the year, and the category showing even more substantial growth once the cold spell subsided. The Grocery category also succeeded in exceeding 2023 weekly visit levels almost every week, although its visit increases were more subdued than those in the Discount & Dollar Store segment.
Superstore and C-Store experienced relatively muted YoY declines in early January and saw significant weekly visit growth as Q1 progressed, with C-Stores outperforming Superstores by late January 2024. And Dining – which suffered a particularly heavy blow in early 2024 – also rebounded with gusto, offering another strong indicator of the resilience of today’s consumer.
Like in the wider Dining industry, weekly YoY visits to the QSR segment quickly rebounded following the unusual cold of the first three weeks of January 2024. And three chains from across the QSR spectrum – legacy chain Wingstop, rapidly expanding Raising Cane’s, and regional cult favorite Whataburger – are seeing particularly strong foot traffic performances.
Diving deeper into the location intelligence reveals that the three chains’ success may be due in part to their visitor base composition: The trade areas of all three brands included a larger share of four-person households compared to the nationwide average of 24.6%.
Wingstop, Raising Cane’s, and Whataburger’s menus all include larger orders to create shareable meals. And larger households seem to be particularly receptive to dining options that allow them to save money, which could explain the significant share of 4+ person households that visit these chains.
The success of these diverse QSR chains also indicates that, although larger households may have more expenses – and might therefore be more impacted by inflation – they can also drive visits to brands that cater to their needs. So dining operators and food manufacturers looking to attract family demographics may consider offering larger meal combos or larger packaging to help larger households splurge on affordable luxuries without breaking the bank.
Perhaps the most significant sign that today’s consumers are still willing to spend money on non-essentials is the recent success of the Starbucks X Stanley “Pink Cup”. The cup has caused such a sensation that re-sellers ask for up to six times the original $50 price – and for those unwilling to shell out the big bucks on the cup, enterprising cup owners offer photo shoots with the product for $5.
The Starbucks X Stanley “Pink Cup” was released on January 3rd, 2024 and could only be bought at Starbucks kiosks located inside a Target. Viral videos of the release circulated on social media, showing eager crowds lining up early in the morning for the chance to be first to grab their cup. Location intelligence reveals that these early morning visits were significant enough to change Target’s typical hourly visit pattern.
Foot traffic between 7:00 AM and 9:00 AM on January 3rd, 2024 accounted for 4.4% of daily visits, compared to 2.6% of daily visits occurring during that time slot on a typical Wednesday in January or February. And demand for the pink Stanley cup drove a spike in daily visits as well – overall daily visits to Target on January 3rd were 18.7% higher than the average Wednesday visits in January and February 2024.
The visit trends to Target on Pink Cup Day are particularly impressive given the freezing weather in some regions of the country and because consumers were coming off the holiday shopping season. And the success of the cup shows that 2024’s shopper is willing to show up – especially for a viral product. Creating buzzy marketing campaigns, then, may be the key to driving retail success.
The retail changes of the past few years have left their mark on how people shop, eat, and spend. And keeping ahead of these changes allows companies and product managers to ensure they can tailor their offerings – whether product selection or marketing campaigns – to the right audience.
The Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index: The office building index analyzes foot traffic data from some 1,000 office buildings across the country. It only includes commercial office buildings, and commercial office buildings with retail offerings on the first floor (like an office building that might include a national coffee chain on the ground floor). It does NOT include mixed-use buildings that are both residential and commercial.
This white paper includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
The remote work war is far from over – and as the labor market cools, companies are ramping up efforts to get workers back in the office. But even those employers that are cracking down on WFH aren’t generally insisting that employees come in five days a week – for the most part.
Indeed, a growing consensus seems to posit that though in-person work carries important benefits, plugging in remotely at least part of the time also has its upsides. Nixing the daily commute can put the ever-elusive work/life balance within reach. And there’s evidence to suggest that remote work can enhance productivity – limiting distractions and letting workers lean into their individual biological clocks (so-called “chronoworking”).
But the precise contours of the new hybrid status-quo are still a work in progress. And to keep up, relevant stakeholders – from employers and workers to municipalities and local businesses – need to keep their fingers on the pulse of how this fast-changing reality is evolving on the ground.
This white paper dives into the data to explore some of the key trends shaping the office recovery. The analysis is based on Placer.ai’s Nationwide Office Index, which examines foot traffic data from more than 1,000 office buildings across the country. What was the trajectory of the post-COVID office recovery in 2023? What impact did return-to-office (RTO) mandates have on major cities nationwide, including New York, Dallas, San Francisco, and others? And how has the demographic and psychographic profile of office-goers changed since the pandemic?
Analyzing office building foot traffic over the past several years suggests that the office recovery story is still very much being written. After plummeting during COVID, nationwide office visits began a slow but steady upward climb in 2021, reaching about 70.0% of January 2019 levels in August 2023.
Since then, the recovery appears to have stalled – with some observers even proclaiming the death of RTO. But looking back at the office visit trajectory since 2019 shows that the process has been anything but linear, with plenty of jumps, dips, and plateaus along the way. And though office foot traffic tapered somewhat between November 2023 and January 2024, this may be a reflection of holiday work patterns and of January’s unusually cold and stormy weather, rather than of any true reversal of RTO gains. Indeed, if 2024 is anything like last year, office visits may yet experience an additional boost as the year wears on.
TGIF Vibes
But for now, at least, a full return to pre-COVID work norms doesn’t appear to be in the cards. And like in 2022, last year’s hybrid work week gave off some serious TGIF vibes.
On Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays, office foot traffic was just 33.2% to 35.3% lower than it was pre-COVID. But on Mondays and Fridays, visits were down a whopping 46.0% and 48.9%, respectively. From a Year-over-year (YoY) perspective too, the middle of the week experienced the most pronounced visit recovery, with Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday visits up about 27.0% compared to 2022.
The slower Monday and Friday office recovery may be driven in part by workers seeking to leverage the flexibility of WFH for extended weekend trips. (Indeed, hybrid work even gave rise to a new form of nuptials – the remote-work wedding.) So-called super commuters, many of whom decamped to more remote locales during COVID, may also prefer to concentrate visits mid-week to limit time on the road. And let’s face it – few people would object to easing in and out of the weekend by working in their pajamas. Whatever the motivating factors – and despite employer pushback – the TGIF work week appears poised to remain a fixture of the post-pandemic working world.
Analyzing nationwide office visitation patterns can shed important light on evolving work and commuting norms. But to really understand the dynamics of office recovery, it is crucial to zoom in on local trends. RTO in tech-heavy San Francisco doesn’t look the same as it does in New York’s financial districts. And commutes in Dallas are very different than in Chicago or Washington, D.C.
Overall, foot traffic to buildings in Placer.ai’s Nationwide Office Index was down 36.8% in 2023 compared to 2019 – and up 23.6% compared to 2022. But drilling down into the data for seven major markets shows that each one experienced a very different recovery trajectory.
In New York and Miami, offices drew just 22.5% and 21.9% less visits, respectively, in 2023 than in 2019 – meaning that they recovered nearly 80.0% of their pre-COVID foot traffic. In New York, remote work policy shifts by major employers like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan appear to have helped set a new tone for the financial sector. And Miami may have benefited from Florida’s early lifting of COVID restrictions in late 2020, as well as from the steady influx of tech companies over the past several years.
San Francisco, for its part, continued to lag behind the other major cities in 2023, with office building foot traffic still 55.1% below 2019 levels. But on a YoY basis, the northern California hub experienced the greatest visit growth of any analyzed city, indicating that San Francisco’s office recovery is still unfolding.
To better understand the relationship between employees’ occupational backgrounds and local office recovery trends, we examined the share of Financial, Insurance, and Real Estate sector workers in the captured markets of different cities’ office buildings. (A POI’s captured market is derived by weighting the census block groups (CBGs) in its True Trade Area according to the share of actual visits from each CBG – thus providing a snapshot of the people that actually visit the POI in practice). We then compared this metric to each city’s year-over-four-year (Yo4Y) office visit gap.
The analysis suggests that the finance sector has indeed been an important driver of office recovery. Generally speaking, cities with greater shares of employees from this sector tended to experience greater office recovery than other urban centers. And for New York City in particular, the dominance of the finance industry may go some way towards explaining the city’s emergence as an RTO leader.
Regional differences notwithstanding, office foot traffic has yet to rebound to pre-COVID levels in any major U.S. market. But counting visits only tells part of the RTO story. Stakeholders seeking to adapt to the new normal also need to understand the evolving characteristics of the in-office crowd. Are office-goers more or less affluent than they were four years ago? And is there a difference in the employee age breakdown?
To explore the evolution of the demographic and psychographic attributes of office-goers since COVID, we analyzed the captured markets of buildings included in the Placer.ai Office Indexes with data from STI (Popstats) and Spatial.ai (PersonaLive). And strikingly, despite stubborn Yo4Y office visit gaps, the profiles of last year’s office visitors largely resembled what they were before COVID – with some marked shifts. This may serve as a further indication that 2023 brought us closer to an emerging new normal.
The median household income (HHI) of the Office Indexes fell during COVID. But by 2022, the median HHI in the trade areas of the Office Indexes was climbing back nationwide in all cities analyzed, and fell just 0.6% short of 2019 levels in 2023. And in some cities, including San Francisco and Dallas, the median HHI of office-goers is higher now than it was pre-pandemic.
Better-paid, and more experienced employees often have more access to remote and hybrid work opportunities – and at the height of the pandemic, it was these workers that disproportionately stayed home. But as COVID receded, many of them came back to the office. Now, even if high-income workers – like many other employees – are coming in less frequently, their share of office visitors has very nearly bounced back to what it was before COVID.
Who are the affluent employees driving the median HHI back up? Foot traffic data suggests that much of the HHI rebound may be fueled by “Educated Urbanites” – a segment defined by Spatial.ai PersonaLive as affluent, educated singles between the ages of 24 and 35 living in urban areas.
For younger employees in particular, fully remote work can come at a significant cost. A lot of learning takes place at the water cooler – and informal interactions with more experienced colleagues can be critical for professional development. Out of sight can also equal out of mind, making it more difficult for younger workers that don’t develop personal bonds with their co-workers and to potentially take other steps to advance their careers.
Analyzing the trade areas of offices across major markets shows that – while parents were somewhat less likely to visit office buildings in 2023 than in 2019 – affluent young professionals are making in-person attendance a priority. Indeed, in 2023, the share of “Educated Urbanites” in offices’ captured markets exceeded pre-COVID levels in most analyzed cities – although the share of this segment still varied between regions, as did the magnitude of the shift over time.
Miami and Dallas, both of which feature relatively small shares of this demographic, saw more dramatic increases relative to their 2019 baselines – but smaller jumps in absolute terms. On the other end of the spectrum lay San Francisco, where the share of “Educated Urbanites” jumped from 47.8% in 2019 to a remarkable 50.0% in 2023. New York office buildings, for their parts, saw the share of this segment rise from 28.8% in 2019 to 31.0% in 2023.
Other segments’ RTO patterns seem a little more mixed. The share of “Ultra Wealthy Families” – a segment consisting of affluent Gen Xers between the ages of 45 and 54 – is still slightly below pre-COVID levels on a nationwide basis. In 2023, this segment made up 13.0% of the Nationwide Office Index’s captured market – down slightly from 13.3% in 2019. In New York and San Francisco, for example – both of which saw the share of “Educated Urbanites” exceed pre-COVID levels last year – the share of “Ultra Wealthy Families” remained lower in 2023 than in 2019. At the same time, some cities’ Office Indexes, such as Miami, Dallas, and Los Angeles, have seen the share of this segment grow Yo4Y.
Workers belonging to this demographic tend to be more established in their careers, and may be less likely to be caring for small children. Well-to-do Gen Xers may also be more likely to be executives, called back to the office to lead by example. But employees belonging to this segment may consider the return to in-person work to be a choice rather than a necessity, which could explain this cohort’s more varied pace of RTO.
COVID supercharged the WFH revolution, upending traditional commuting patterns and offering employees and companies alike a taste of the advantages of a more flexible approach to work. But as employers and workers seek to negotiate the right balance between at-home and in-person work, the office landscape remains very much in flux. And by keeping abreast of nationwide and regional foot traffic trends – as well as the shifting demographic and psychographic characteristics of today’s office-goers – stakeholders can adapt to this fast-changing reality.
