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2024 represented a year of transformation in U.S. luxury retail. After years of evading the impact of inflation and changing consumer behavior, ultra luxury brands and retailers began experiencing some of the challenges plaguing the wider retail space over this past year. Consumers of all income groups pulled back on spending and shifted focus towards value, which is inherently at odds with the luxury retail experience. Despite the aspirational nature of social media, many consumers who had been testing the waters of the luxury market can’t sustain their demand. There’s also been a rebound of the “accessible” luxury market, with brands like Coach and other smaller chains capturing the attention of the consumer.
How did 2024 end in terms of luxury retail visitation? Generally, visitation to luxury retail brands was down throughout the year, with visits for 2024 as a whole down 4% year-over-year. This is in stark contrast to the growth in visits we observed in 2022 and 2023, a clear signal that there’s been a shift in consumer demand for luxury brands here in the U.S. The elasticity of luxury visits waned in 2024, which could be attributed to a few factors; changes in demand for specific brands this past year or lower general demand for the categories.
The most interesting shift this past year was in the segmentation of visitors to luxury retailers. Using PersonaLive visitor segments, we observed changes in the types of demographic consumer segments visiting luxury brands. The percentage of visits by Ultra Wealthy Families increased over the past three years, with the cohort making up 20% of luxury retailers’ captured market in 2024, the largest of any visitor segment.
At the same time, we noted decreases in the share of Near-Urban Diverse Families, Young Urban Singles, and City Hopefuls in luxury retailers’ trade areas. These groups fall more into the aspirational customer segment for luxury brands, meaning that they might not be frequent shoppers or may have saved up for a large purchase. Luxury retailers now have to rely more on their traditional consumer base and have narrowed their pool of potential visitors.
Beyond the retailers themselves, luxury shopping centers also saw visitation decelerate in 2024. Looking at three key luxury centers, Americana Manhasset in Manhasset, NY, Bal Harbour Shops in Miami, and Highland Park Village in Dallas, each center slowed down compared to prior years. These shopping centers house ultra luxury brands, such as Hermes, Dior, and Chanel, as well as new luxury entrants like LoveShackFancy and beauty chain Bluemercury as well as upscale dining options; despite this strong mix of tenants, it’s clear that changing consumer behavior has impacted these centers, even those that still saw growth early in the year.
There weren’t any observable changes in visitor behavior in terms of how long visitors stayed or what day of the week they visited. All three luxury shopping centers rely heavily on weekend visitors, and as consumers pull back on the frequency of discretionary purchases, there might be less incentive to visit overall. More than 50% of Americana Manhasset and Highland Park Village’s trade area is made up of Ultra Wealthy Families, and that high concentration that once benefited luxury retailers may now present hurdles in sustaining traffic growth.
Luxury brands, despite the changing tides, are the true retail trend setters, and have the ability to pivot as needed to meet changing consumer demands. In 2024, we saw the triumphant rise of brands such as Miu Miu, Louis Vuitton and Hermes as consumers concentrated their purchases around the hottest labels. The luxury market faces more uncertainty in 2025 as the consumer fluctuates to adapt to changes across the U.S. and the need to provide a high touch experience and inherent value is critical to garner the attention of shoppers.
RBI and Yum! Brands own and operate some of the country’s most beloved and well-known dining chains. We took a look at the visit data for 2024 to see how the two companies fared in a period of economic headwinds and uncertainty.
Restaurant Brands International (RBI) and Yum! Brands are leaders in the fast food and fast casual dining segment. Each company operates four restaurants with major footprints across the country – RBI owns Tim Hortons, Burger King, Firehouse Subs, and Popeyes, and Yum! manages Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, KFC, and The Habit Burger Grill.
Yum! Brands enjoyed visit and visits per location growth in all but one quarter, capping off Q4 2024 with an 0.8% increase in visits and a 1.6% increase in visits per location on a YoY basis. RBI’s visits and visits per location, meanwhile, hovered at or just below 2023’s levels in all but one quarter of the year, highlighting the challenges facing the dining segment in 2024.
Of the four RBI brands, Popeyes enjoyed the strongest visitation patterns throughout 2024.The chain has been a standout for the past few years – likely owing to its popular chicken sandwiches – and Popeyes performed well in 2024 as well, with YoY visit growth during most quarters.
Following Popeyes in visit growth was Tim Hortons – Canada’s leading coffee chain – which saw positive momentum in the first half of 2024, though visits dipped in the latter half of the year. And though Burger King’s visits were sluggish, the chain has been focusing on optimizing its store fleets with strong results.
While overall visits across RBI’s brands were slightly below 2023 levels, their ability to remain close to last year’s numbers – and even achieve growth in some quarters – signals resilience.
Yum! Brands delivered a strong performance in 2024, buoyed by Pizza Hut and Taco Bell’s consistent growth. Taco Bell in particular stood out, driving foot traffic through promotions like its highly popular Taco Tuesday special. The chain experienced quarterly YoY visit growth throughout the year, culminating in a 2.1% increase in Q4 2024 relative to 2023.
Pizza Hut also experienced impressive visitation growth in 2024, especially in Q2. In contrast, KFC faced challenges with declining visits, while The Habit Burger Grill’s traffic remained steady, closely tracking 2023 levels.
RBI and Yum! Brands experienced ups and downs throughout 2024, with some of their chains thriving while others showed modest visit declines.
With the new year well underway, how might RBI and Yum! work to drive increased visits to their restaurants?
Visit Placer.ai for the latest data-driven dining updates.
They say that one man’s trash is another one’s treasure – and for Burlington Stores, opportunity knocked when Bed Bath & Beyond selected Burlington Stores as the successful bidder for many of its leases, with the latter taking over 44 locations for $12 million. Per CNBC, many of these new venues are scattered across the country.
Using Placer data, we are able to compare visitation trends to these locations when they were branded as a Bed Bath & Beyond store versus when the new leases took over.
In Avondale, AZ, the new Burlington store is receiving over twice the traffic (241.8% more visits per square foot) during the holiday shopping season in December 2024 compared to a similar time frame when it was a Bed Bath & Beyond in December 2021.
In comparing shopping center frequented by visitors to the analyzed venue, the profile of the shopper has changed somewhat. While both sets of shoppers frequented the nearby Gateway Crossings, Westgate Entertainment District, and Arrowhead Towne Center, Burlington shoppers had a penchant for Desert Sky Mall and Tanger Outlets Phoenix, whereas the Bed Bath & Beyond shoppers preferred Palm Valley Pavillions West and Coldwater Plaza.
Whereas the top four segments have remained consistent for both banners, Burlington attracts a higher proportion of Melting Pot Families - over 2x the rate compared to when it was a Bed Bath & Beyond.
In a head to head comparison using comparable months, Burlington attracted over 3x the traffic in its first year of opening, compared to when it was a Bed Bath and Beyond two years prior.
The number of visits across numerous visit durations was considerably higher to Burlington, and the average dwell time increased to 41 minutes compared to 31 minutes when it was a Bed Bath & Beyond.
While this is just one example of a Burlington takeover, it goes to show that while the location may stay the same, the audience it attracts will vary and this Burlington is off to an excellent start.
In recent years, Tennessee has emerged as a surprising migration hotspot. The state, which offers a growing tech scene, business-friendly tax regulations, and a relatively low cost of living is rapidly gaining popularity and attracting inbound migration from across the nation.
Where are newcomers coming from – and where within Tennessee are they going? Using Placer.ai’s Migration Trends Report, we took a closer look at the migration data to gain a more thorough understanding of the shifts taking place in the Volunteer State.
The state of Tennessee has experienced significant positive migration over the past few years. Between July 2020 and July 2024, the cumulative net migrated percent of Tennessee’s population increased steadily, with 2.1% of the state’s July 2024 population having moved there from elsewhere in the country over the previous four years.
Diving deeper into Tennessee’s migration patterns reveal that between July 2020 and July 2024, the state had net positive domestic migration from 41 out of 50 states – meaning Tennessee gained more residents from these states than it lost to those states. Illinois and California together accounted for almost 40% of Tennessee’s net positive domestic migration during the period, and the state also drew a large contingent (33.6% of net positive domestic migration) from the East Coast.
While Memphis, Tennessee’s second-largest city, has made headlines in recent years for its declining population, other metro areas in the state are experiencing strong interest from newcomers.
Between July 2020 and July 2024, the Nashville CBSA (core-based statistical area) received the largest share of net positive domestic migration, with 24.6% of newcomers to Tennessee settling in the Music City. Nashville has been establishing itself as a tech hub, a factor which may have driven its strong net migration.
Knoxville came in second, welcoming 18.7% of the positive net migration to Tennessee between July 2020 and July 2024. Other CBSAs rounding out the top five were Chattanooga (9.0% share of positive net migration), Kingsport-Bristol (8.7%), and Johnson City (6.0%).
The influx of new residents into Tennessee is not only helping drive the state’s population up – it’s also reshaping its demographic composition. Zooming into the top five CBSAs mentioned above reveals that newcomers generally are coming from CBSAs of origin where the weighted median age is younger than the existing population.
The only metro area bucking this trend was Clarksville, where incoming residents were slightly older than the youthful median 31 years of its residents, though this may be a reflection of its strong university and military presence.
The movement of younger people into these up-and-coming CBSAs reflects the opportunities available for people to grow their careers and put down roots in a state that is quickly becoming a hub for growth and opportunity.
Tennessee seems to have reinvented itself as a destination for young people seeking out opportunities for growth. By continuing to foster a business-friendly environment and supporting its diverse communities, the state is well-positioned to thrive.
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven migration trends.
How have McDonald’s and Chipotle, two of the most recognizable names in the quick-service and fast-casual dining scenes, fared over the last year? We take a closer look at each chain’s visit performance, and highlight some bright spots of 2024.
Visits to McDonald’s were mixed throughout 2024, with most months seeing minor visitation lags relative to 2023. Still, YoY traffic trends outpaced those of the overall QSR segment in all but one month (October 2024), highlighting the chain’s power relative to the rest of the market.
Some of the visitation dips at both McDonald's and the overall QSR segment are likely due to inflation impacting prices across the dining industry. And the rise of the budget-conscious consumer has prompted many chains to lean on limited-time offers and special releases to both offer affordable deals and turn a trip to a QSR into a special occasion. McDonald’s capitalized on this trend, driving impressive visit boosts following the June launch of its $5 Meal Deal. However, it was the chain’s special releases that delivered the most significant increases in weekly visits.
The introduction of the Chicken Big Mac on October 10th, 2024 proved to be a major success, driving a 7.2% increase in visits during the week of the launch (October 7th-13th) and an even larger 8.7% increase in the first full week following the release (October 14th-20th). The chain also enjoyed a jump in foot traffic from its limited-edition collector’s meal, launched on August 12th, 2024, further highlighting the effectiveness of these strategic, nostalgia-driven releases.
Chipotle has been a fast-casual darling for several years now, consistently driving YoY visit growth and expanding into new markets. And 2024 was no exception for the chain, with visits growing in all months analyzed. This included an impressive 21.1% year-over-year increase in April 2024, followed by sustained growth throughout the remainder of the year, culminating in an 8.8% increase in December 2024 compared to 2023. In contrast, the broader fast-casual category saw much more muted visitation patterns.
Some of Chipotle’s visit growth can be attributed to the aggressive growth strategy the company has undertaken, opening approximately 300 stores in 2024 with plans to add another 300 locations in 2025. A significant part of this expansion strategy focuses on rural and suburban markets in a bid to capture untapped demand beyond traditional urban hubs.
And diving into visits per location reveals that, overall, this strategy is working. All but eight states analyzed showed YoY visit per location growth in 2024 – and five of the top ten states for visits per location growth are among the least densely populated in the country. This suggests that Chipotle's decision to target smaller markets is paying off, enabling the brand to attract new audiences while reinforcing its stronghold in more densely populated areas.
Despite a challenging 2024, McDonald’s and Chipotle are surviving – and even thriving.
What might lie ahead for the two chains as 2025 gets underway?
Visit Placer.ai for the latest data-driven dining updates.
The Container Store has been a prime example of a specialty retailer that successfully catered to a highly specific and niche consumer need. The home organization trend gained traction in the early 2000s with the rise of custom closet solutions and continued to grow in popularity through influential figures like Marie Kondo and The Home Edit.
The home furnishings category experienced a surge during the pandemic as consumers focused on improving their living spaces, whether by purchasing new homes or renovating existing ones. However, as discretionary spending habits have normalized and interest rates have risen, consumer spending in this category has declined.
Additionally, the sector has seen significant consolidation, most notably with the closure of Bed Bath & Beyond, a major player in home furnishings and organization. The remaining retailers in the space now largely fall into two distinct categories: niche specialists and value-driven brands..
Those retailers that play in the more niche space – including The Container Store – have had an even more challenging path to meet changing consumer needs. Despite offering a high level of customization and expertise, the chain has struggled against increasing industry-wide promotional activity and waning interest in the home organization category. Additionally, mass merchants and other home retailers have expanded their offerings in this space, providing organization solutions at price points that better align with today’s cost-conscious consumers.
Placer’s foot traffic estimates indicate a clear rise in competition for The Container Store since 2022, aligning with a broader decline in demand for its category. In 2024, visitors to The Container Store cross-shopped at Target, HomeGoods, IKEA, and World Market at higher rates than in 2022. This growing preference for competitive alternatives – many of which emphasize greater value – has likely contributed to the retailer’s challenges.
Specialty retailers play a crucial role in the industry by offering expert knowledge, superior service, and a wider assortment of products. However, as we move into 2025, the retail landscape must continue evolving to meet shifting consumer expectations, making adaptation essential for specialty retailers.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
The first American mall opened in 1956 and reinvented retail – within a decade there were over 4,500 malls across the country. But a rise in e-commerce coupled with the oversaturation of mall options across the country paved the way for mall visits to slow, and many predicted that malls would go the way of the dinosaur.
But although malls were hit hard over the past few years as lockdowns and rising costs contributed to a significant drop in foot traffic, shopping centers have proven resilient. Leading players in the space have consistently reinvented themselves and explored alternate ways to draw in crowds – and as inflation cools, malls are bouncing back as well.
This white paper analyzes the Placer.ai Shopping Center Industry – a collection of over 3000 shopping centers across the United States – as well as the Placer.ai’s Mall Indexes, which focus on top-tier Indoor Malls, Open-Air Shopping Centers, Outlet Malls. The report examines how visits are shifting and where behaviors are changing – and where they’re staying the same – and takes a closer look at the strategies malls are using to attract shoppers in 2024.
Malls experienced a rocky few years as pandemic-related restrictions and economic headwinds kept many shoppers at home, and visits to all mall types in 2021 were between 10.7% to 15.3% lower than in 2019. But foot traffic trends improved significantly in 2022 – likely due to the fading out of COVID restrictions.
By 2023, visits to the wider Shopping Center Industry were just 2.3% lower than they had been in 2019, and the visit gaps for Indoor Malls and Open-Air Shopping Centers had narrowed to 5.8% and 1.0% lower, respectively. Outlet Malls also saw visits ticking up once again, with the visit gap compared to 2019 narrowing to 8.5% in 2023 after having dropped to 11.3% in 2022. This more sustained foot traffic dip may stem from consumers’ desire to save on gas costs or the impacts of inclement weather. However, the narrowing visit gaps suggest that shoppers are increasingly returning to the segment, and foot traffic may yet pick up again in 2024.
COVID-19 impacted more than just visit numbers – it also changed in-store consumer behavior. And now, with the Coronavirus a distant memory for many, some of these pandemic-acquired habits are fading away, while other shifts appear to be holding steady.
One visit metric that appears to have reverted to pre-COVID norms is the share of weekday vs. weekend visits. Weekday visits had increased in 2021 – at the height of COVID – as consumers found themselves with more free time midweek, but the balance of weekday vs. weekend visits has now returned to 2019 levels.
In 2023, the Shopping Center Industry, which includes a number of grocery-anchored centers along with open-air shopping centers and their relatively large variety of dining options, saw the largest share of weekday visits, followed by Indoor Malls. Outlet Malls received the lowest share of weekday visits – around 55% – likely due to the longer distances usually required to drive to these malls, making them ideal destinations for weekend day trips.
While the day of the week that people frequent malls hasn't changed significantly since 2019, there is one notable difference in mall foot traffic pre- and post-pandemic. Almost all mall categories are seeing fewer during the late morning-midday and late evening dayparts, while the amount of people heading to a mall in the afternoon and early evening has increased.
In 2019, Indoor Malls saw 20.1% of visits occurring between 10:00am and 1:00pm, but that share decreased to 18.6% in 2023. Meanwhile, the share of visits between 4:00-7:00 pm rose from 29.1% in 2019 to 32.4% in 2023. Similar patterns repeated across all shopping center categories, with the 1:00-4:00pm daypart seeing a slight increase, the 4:00-7:00 pm daypart receiving the largest boost and the 7:00-10:00 pm daypart seeing the largest drop. So although changes in work habits have not altered the weekly visit distribution, it seems like hybrid workers are taking advantage of their new, and likely more flexible schedules to frequent malls in the afternoon instead of reserving their mall trips for after work. The significant numbers of Americans moving to the suburbs in recent years may also be contributing to the decline of late night visits, with these suburban newcomers perhaps less likely to spend time outside the house during the evening hours.
Although malls have enjoyed consistent growth in foot traffic over the past two years, visits still remain below 2019 levels. How can shopping centers attract more shoppers and recover their pre-COVID foot traffic?
Some malls are attracting visitors by looking beyond traditional retail with offerings such as gyms, amusement parks, and even entertainment complexes. And with more traditional mall anchors shutting their doors than ever, even smaller shopping centers are adding lifestyle experiences options in newly vacant spaces – and incorporating unique elements into traditional retail spaces.
In September 2023, the Chandler Fashion Center in Arizona opened a giant SCHEELS store in its mall. The 250,000-square-foot sporting goods store boasts more than just sneakers – visitors can ride on a 45-foot Ferris Wheel or marvel at a 16,000-gallon saltwater aquarium. And monthly visitation data to the mall reveals the power of this new retail destination, with foot traffic to the mall experiencing a major jump from October 2023 onward. The excitement of the new SCHEELS seems to be sustaining itself, with February 2024 visits 23.3% higher than the same period of 2023.
Restaurants, too, can help bring people into malls. The Southgate Mall in Missoula, Montana, experienced a jump in monthly visits following the opening of a Texas Roadhouse steakhouse in November 2023. Customers seem to be receptive to this new addition – the mall saw a sustained increase in foot traffic from November 2023 onward, with year-over-year (YoY) visit growth of 17.0% in February 2024.
The addition of Texas Roadhouse provides Missoula residents with a family-friendly dining experience while tapping into the evergreen popularity of steakhouses.
Malls that don’t want to choose between adding a dining option and incorporating a novel entertainment venue can blend the two and go the “eatertainment” route. One shopping center – North Carolina’s Cross Creek Mall – is proving just how effective these concepts can be for a mall looking to grow its foot traffic.
Eatertainment destination Main Event opened at the mall in August 2023, bringing laser tag, video games, virtual reality, and 18 bowling lanes with it. Main Event’s opening also provided a boost in foot traffic to the mall – monthly visits to Cross Creek Mall surged following the opening. And this foot traffic boost sustained itself, particularly into the colder winter months – January and February 2024 saw YoY growth of 12.3% and 25.1%, respectively.
Integrating entertainment options at malls is one strategy for driving visits, but there are plenty of other ways to bring people through the doors. Pop-ups have been a particularly popular option of late, especially as more online brands venture into the world of physical retail. And malls, which typically tend to leave a small portion of their storefronts vacant, can be the perfect place to host a retailer for a limited time.
One brand – Shein – has been a leader in the pop-up space, bringing its affordable fashion to malls in Las Vegas, Seattle, and Indianapolis. These short-term residencies – typically no longer than three to four days – allow shoppers to try the popular online retailer’s products before they buy.
Shein has enjoyed success with its mall residencies, evidenced by the foot traffic at the Woodfield Mall in Illinois, which hosted a three-day pop-up from December 15-17, 2023. The retail event was hugely popular, with visits reaching Super Saturday (the last weekend before Christmas) proportions – even though this year’s Super Saturday coincided with Christmas Eve Eve (December 23rd) and drove unusually high traffic spikes.
Shein pop-ups are typically very short – no more than three to four days. This format, known for creating a sense of urgency among shoppers, has proven powerful in driving store visits. But can longer-lasting pop-ups find success as well?
Foot traffic data from pop-ups hosted by Swedish home furnisher IKEA suggests that yes – longer-term residencies can be successful. The chain is working on growing its presence across the country, particularly in malls. To that end, IKEA has been experimenting with mall pop-ups, beginning with a six-month residency at the Rosedale Center in Roseville, Minnesota.
IKEA opened its store on February 16, 2024, and visits to the mall increased significantly immediately after. The first week of the pop-up saw a 12.9% growth in visits compared to a January 1-7, 2024 baseline. And by the third week of the pop-up, there were still noticeably more people frequenting the mall than before the launch.
The luxury retail segment has had a great few years, and malls are tapping into this popularity. Nearly 40% of new high-end store openings in 2023 were in mall settings, many in Sunbelt states like Texas, Florida, and Arizona, perhaps driven in part by demand from an influx of wealthy newcomers to those states.
A comparison of upscale shopping malls to standard shopping centers across Sunbelt States reveals just how popular high-end retail is in the region. Malls with a high percentage of luxury and designer stores like the Lenox Square Mall in Georgia or the NorthPark Center in Texas saw considerably more YoY visit growth than the average visit growth for shopping centers in their respective states.
Lenox Square Mall saw foot traffic increase 31.2% YoY in 2023, while shopping centers in Georgia saw their visits grow by just 2.7% YoY in the same period. Similar trends repeated in Louisiana, Arizona, California, and Florida. And while some of this growth may be due to the resilience of these wealthier shoppers in the face of inflation, one thing is clear – luxury is here to stay.
Malls are thriving, carving out spaces for themselves in a competitive retail environment. By prioritizing experiential retail, entertainment, pop-up shops, and luxury offerings, shopping centers across the country are remaining relevant in a rapidly changing retail world. And mall operators that recognize the power of innovation and evolve along with their customers can hope to meet with continued success.
Consumer preferences have shifted over the past five years. COVID-19 and inflation impacted shopping habits and behaviors across the retail space – and while some of the changes were short-lived, others appear to have more staying power. Now, with memories of the lockdowns fading, and as the inflation that plagued much of 2022 and 2023 wanes (hopefully), we analyzed location intelligence data to understand what the retail and dining landscape looks like today.
This report leverages historical and current foot traffic data and trade area analysis to better understand the current retail and dining landscape and reveal consumer trends likely to shape 2024 and beyond. Which segments have benefited most from the shifts of the past five years? How are legacy brands staying on top of current shopping and dining trends? Where are people shopping and dining in 2024? And what characterizes the modern consumer?
One of the major retail stories of the past five years has been the rise of Discount & Dollar Stores. Category leaders such as Dollar General and Dollar Tree expanded significantly prior to the pandemic, which helped these essential retailers attract large numbers of customers during the initial months of lockdowns.
During this period, many Discount & Dollar Stores invested in more than just their store count – several leading chains also expanded their grocery selection, allowing these companies to compete more directly for Grocery and Superstore shoppers. As Discount & Dollar Stores continued growing their store fleets – and as the pandemic gave way to inflation concerns – shoppers looking for more affordable consumables options gravitated to this segment.
Location intelligence shows that the rapidly opening stores and stocking them with fresh groceries is working – since 2019, Discount & Dollar Stores have slowly but steadily grown their visit share relative to the Grocery and Superstore sectors.
In 2019, Discount & Dollar retailers captured 15.1% of the visit share between the three categories analyzed. This number grew by a full percentage point between 2019 and 2020 and the trend has continued, with the category enjoying 16.6% of the relative visit share in 2023. Meanwhile, Superstores’ relative visit share decreased during the same period, dropping from 41.7% in 2019 to 40.0% in 2023, while the relative visit share of Grocery Stores remained mostly stable.
Still, consumers are not giving up their regular Grocery or Superstore run quite yet – over 80% of combined visits to Grocery Stores, Superstore, and Discount & Dollar Store sectors still go to Grocery Stores and Superstores. But the data does indicate that some shoppers are likely choosing to shop for groceries and other consumables at Discount & Dollar Stores. And CPG companies and category managers looking to reach customers where they shop may want to consider adding Discount & Dollar Stores to their distribution channels.
The key question that remains is how much of the gained visit share can the Discount & Dollar leaders maintain as the economic environment improves. This metric will be the strongest sign of whether the short term gains made within a favorable context drove long term value.
Superstores’ visit share may be shrinking somewhat in the face of Discount & Dollar Stores’ growth. But diving into the Superstore leaders reveals that these macro-shifts are having a different impact on the various sub-categories within the wider Superstore segment.
Walmart remains the undisputed Superstore leader thanks to its 61.8% share of overall visits to Walmart, Target, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s in 2023. But 61.8% is still lower than the 66.3% relative visits share that the Superstore behemoth enjoyed in 2019. Meanwhile, Target grew its relative visit share from 17.3% in 2019 to 19.3% in 2023, while the combined visit share of the three membership club brands increased from 16.5% in 2019 to 18.9% in the same period.
Some of the shift in visit share can be attributed to Walmart closing several locations while Target, Costco Sam's Club, and BJ's expanded their fleet – but other factors are likely at play.
Costco and Target attract the most affluent clientele of the five chains analyzed, which could explain why these chains have seen significant growth at a time when many consumers are operating with tighter budgets. The success of these companies also suggests that there are enough consumers willing to spend beyond the basics – as shown with Target’s Stanley Cup success (more on that below) – to support a varied product selection that includes higher-priced options. It also speaks to a high upside on a per customer basis for chains that have proven effective at providing higher-end products alongside those with a value orientation. This speaks to a unique capacity to effectively address “the middle” – an audience that is defined neither solely by value-seeking nor by high-end product proclivities.
Sam's Club and BJ’s also give shoppers an opportunity to save by buying in bulk and cutting down on shopping trips – and related gas expenses – which may also have contributed to their success. The increase in the relative visit share of wholesale clubs indicates that today’s consumer might react positively to more options for bulk purchases in non-warehouse club chains as well.
Retail is not the only sector that has seen slow and steady shifts in recent years – the dining space was also significantly impacted by pandemic restrictions of 2020-2021 and the inflation of 2022-2023. Location intelligence reveals shifts in both the types of establishments favored by consumers and in the in-store behaviors of dining consumers.
Convenience stores’ dining options have evolved in recent years, with today’s consumers heading to Wawa for a freshly made specialty hoagie or to Buc-ee’s to enjoy the chain’s variety of specialty snacks.
Analyzing the visit distribution among C-Stores and other discretionary dining categories (Fast Food and QSR, Restaurants, and Breakfast & Coffee, not including Grocery and Superstores) showcases the growing role of C-Stores in the dining space. Between 2019 and 2023, C-stores' visit share relative to the other discretionary dining categories jumped from 24.2% to 27.1%. The relative visit share of Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries & Dessert Shops also grew slightly during the period. Meanwhile, Restaurants’ relative visit share dropped from 13.8% to 11.7% and Fast Food & QSR’s dipped from 51.8% to 50.6%.
Several factors are likely driving this evolution. Most Restaurants shuttered temporarily at the height of the pandemic while C-Stores remained open – and consumers likely took the opportunity to get acquainted with C-Stores’ food-away-from-home options. And many C-Stores expanded their footprint in recent years, while some dining chains downsized, which likely also contributed to the changes in relative visit share between the segments.
But the continued growth of C-Stores between 2021 and 2022, and again between 2022 and 2023, indicates that many diners are now embracing C-Store food out of choice and not just due to necessity. The rise of the Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries & Dessert Shops category alongside C-Stores in the past five years may also highlight the current appetite for affordable grab-and-go food options. And with C-Store operators embracing the shifts brought on by the pandemic and actively expanding their food options, diners are increasingly likely to consider C-Stores for their portable meals and packaged snacks.
C-Store visitors are increasingly receptive to trying new products at their local c-store. So how can C-Store operators and CPG companies determine which products will best appeal to customers? Analyzing the trade areas of seven major chains – 7-Eleven, Wawa, Casey’s, QuikTrip, Cumberland Farms, Plaid Pantry, and Buc-ee’s – using the Spatial.ai: FollowGraph dataset reveals significant variance in food preferences between the chains’ visitor bases.
For instance, Plaid Pantry visitors were 55% more likely than the nationwide average to fall into the “Asian Food Enthusiasts” segment in 2023, in contrast with Casey’s visitors who are 7% less likely to belong to this psychographic. Residents of the trade areas of QuikTrip and Buc-ee’s rank highest for "Fried Chicken Lovers," while Cumberland Farms and Plaid Pantry visitors register the least interest. C-Store operators, QSR franchisees, packaged food manufacturers, and other stakeholders can leverage these insights to optimize food offerings, identify promising partnership opportunities, and find new venues for product testing.
While C-Stores stores may be the exciting story of the day, Full-Service Restaurants continue to play a major role in the wider dining landscape. And despite the ongoing economic headwinds, several dining brands and categories are seeing growth – although location intelligence suggests that in-restaurant behavior may be changing as well.
For example, the hourly visits distribution for leading steakhouse chains has shifted over the past five years: Between 2019 and 2023, Texas Roadhouse, LongHorn Steakhouse, and Outback Steakhouse all saw a jump in the share of visits occurring between 2:00 PM and 6:00 PM – not typical steak eating hours.
Outback and Texas Roadhouse offer early bird dinner specials while LongHorn has a happy hour, so some diners may be choosing to visit these restaurant chains earlier in the evening in order to stretch their eating out budget. Other consumers who are still working from home most of the week may also be eating on a more flexible schedule, and these diners may be having more late lunches in 2023 when compared to 2019. Restaurant operators, drink providers, and menu developers may want to adapt their offerings to this emerging mid-afternoon rush.
The data examined above shows changes within key retail and dining segments over the past five years. So what do these shifts reveal about today’s consumer? What are shoppers and diners looking for in 2024?
The beginning of 2024 was marked by an Arctic blast and plunging temperatures. Consumers, unsurprisingly, hunkered down at home – and foot traffic to many retail categories took a dip. But the declines were short-lived, and by the fourth week of January 2024 foot traffic had rebounded across major categories.
Still, zooming into weekly visit performance for key retail and dining categories for the first eight weeks of the year reveals that the cold did not impact all segments equally – and the subsequent resurgence boosted some sectors more than others.
Discount & Dollar Stores had the strongest start to 2024, with YoY visits up almost every week since the start of the year, and the category showing even more substantial growth once the cold spell subsided. The Grocery category also succeeded in exceeding 2023 weekly visit levels almost every week, although its visit increases were more subdued than those in the Discount & Dollar Store segment.
Superstore and C-Store experienced relatively muted YoY declines in early January and saw significant weekly visit growth as Q1 progressed, with C-Stores outperforming Superstores by late January 2024. And Dining – which suffered a particularly heavy blow in early 2024 – also rebounded with gusto, offering another strong indicator of the resilience of today’s consumer.
Like in the wider Dining industry, weekly YoY visits to the QSR segment quickly rebounded following the unusual cold of the first three weeks of January 2024. And three chains from across the QSR spectrum – legacy chain Wingstop, rapidly expanding Raising Cane’s, and regional cult favorite Whataburger – are seeing particularly strong foot traffic performances.
Diving deeper into the location intelligence reveals that the three chains’ success may be due in part to their visitor base composition: The trade areas of all three brands included a larger share of four-person households compared to the nationwide average of 24.6%.
Wingstop, Raising Cane’s, and Whataburger’s menus all include larger orders to create shareable meals. And larger households seem to be particularly receptive to dining options that allow them to save money, which could explain the significant share of 4+ person households that visit these chains.
The success of these diverse QSR chains also indicates that, although larger households may have more expenses – and might therefore be more impacted by inflation – they can also drive visits to brands that cater to their needs. So dining operators and food manufacturers looking to attract family demographics may consider offering larger meal combos or larger packaging to help larger households splurge on affordable luxuries without breaking the bank.
Perhaps the most significant sign that today’s consumers are still willing to spend money on non-essentials is the recent success of the Starbucks X Stanley “Pink Cup”. The cup has caused such a sensation that re-sellers ask for up to six times the original $50 price – and for those unwilling to shell out the big bucks on the cup, enterprising cup owners offer photo shoots with the product for $5.
The Starbucks X Stanley “Pink Cup” was released on January 3rd, 2024 and could only be bought at Starbucks kiosks located inside a Target. Viral videos of the release circulated on social media, showing eager crowds lining up early in the morning for the chance to be first to grab their cup. Location intelligence reveals that these early morning visits were significant enough to change Target’s typical hourly visit pattern.
Foot traffic between 7:00 AM and 9:00 AM on January 3rd, 2024 accounted for 4.4% of daily visits, compared to 2.6% of daily visits occurring during that time slot on a typical Wednesday in January or February. And demand for the pink Stanley cup drove a spike in daily visits as well – overall daily visits to Target on January 3rd were 18.7% higher than the average Wednesday visits in January and February 2024.
The visit trends to Target on Pink Cup Day are particularly impressive given the freezing weather in some regions of the country and because consumers were coming off the holiday shopping season. And the success of the cup shows that 2024’s shopper is willing to show up – especially for a viral product. Creating buzzy marketing campaigns, then, may be the key to driving retail success.
The retail changes of the past few years have left their mark on how people shop, eat, and spend. And keeping ahead of these changes allows companies and product managers to ensure they can tailor their offerings – whether product selection or marketing campaigns – to the right audience.
The Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index: The office building index analyzes foot traffic data from some 1,000 office buildings across the country. It only includes commercial office buildings, and commercial office buildings with retail offerings on the first floor (like an office building that might include a national coffee chain on the ground floor). It does NOT include mixed-use buildings that are both residential and commercial.
This white paper includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
The remote work war is far from over – and as the labor market cools, companies are ramping up efforts to get workers back in the office. But even those employers that are cracking down on WFH aren’t generally insisting that employees come in five days a week – for the most part.
Indeed, a growing consensus seems to posit that though in-person work carries important benefits, plugging in remotely at least part of the time also has its upsides. Nixing the daily commute can put the ever-elusive work/life balance within reach. And there’s evidence to suggest that remote work can enhance productivity – limiting distractions and letting workers lean into their individual biological clocks (so-called “chronoworking”).
But the precise contours of the new hybrid status-quo are still a work in progress. And to keep up, relevant stakeholders – from employers and workers to municipalities and local businesses – need to keep their fingers on the pulse of how this fast-changing reality is evolving on the ground.
This white paper dives into the data to explore some of the key trends shaping the office recovery. The analysis is based on Placer.ai’s Nationwide Office Index, which examines foot traffic data from more than 1,000 office buildings across the country. What was the trajectory of the post-COVID office recovery in 2023? What impact did return-to-office (RTO) mandates have on major cities nationwide, including New York, Dallas, San Francisco, and others? And how has the demographic and psychographic profile of office-goers changed since the pandemic?
Analyzing office building foot traffic over the past several years suggests that the office recovery story is still very much being written. After plummeting during COVID, nationwide office visits began a slow but steady upward climb in 2021, reaching about 70.0% of January 2019 levels in August 2023.
Since then, the recovery appears to have stalled – with some observers even proclaiming the death of RTO. But looking back at the office visit trajectory since 2019 shows that the process has been anything but linear, with plenty of jumps, dips, and plateaus along the way. And though office foot traffic tapered somewhat between November 2023 and January 2024, this may be a reflection of holiday work patterns and of January’s unusually cold and stormy weather, rather than of any true reversal of RTO gains. Indeed, if 2024 is anything like last year, office visits may yet experience an additional boost as the year wears on.
TGIF Vibes
But for now, at least, a full return to pre-COVID work norms doesn’t appear to be in the cards. And like in 2022, last year’s hybrid work week gave off some serious TGIF vibes.
On Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays, office foot traffic was just 33.2% to 35.3% lower than it was pre-COVID. But on Mondays and Fridays, visits were down a whopping 46.0% and 48.9%, respectively. From a Year-over-year (YoY) perspective too, the middle of the week experienced the most pronounced visit recovery, with Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday visits up about 27.0% compared to 2022.
The slower Monday and Friday office recovery may be driven in part by workers seeking to leverage the flexibility of WFH for extended weekend trips. (Indeed, hybrid work even gave rise to a new form of nuptials – the remote-work wedding.) So-called super commuters, many of whom decamped to more remote locales during COVID, may also prefer to concentrate visits mid-week to limit time on the road. And let’s face it – few people would object to easing in and out of the weekend by working in their pajamas. Whatever the motivating factors – and despite employer pushback – the TGIF work week appears poised to remain a fixture of the post-pandemic working world.
Analyzing nationwide office visitation patterns can shed important light on evolving work and commuting norms. But to really understand the dynamics of office recovery, it is crucial to zoom in on local trends. RTO in tech-heavy San Francisco doesn’t look the same as it does in New York’s financial districts. And commutes in Dallas are very different than in Chicago or Washington, D.C.
Overall, foot traffic to buildings in Placer.ai’s Nationwide Office Index was down 36.8% in 2023 compared to 2019 – and up 23.6% compared to 2022. But drilling down into the data for seven major markets shows that each one experienced a very different recovery trajectory.
In New York and Miami, offices drew just 22.5% and 21.9% less visits, respectively, in 2023 than in 2019 – meaning that they recovered nearly 80.0% of their pre-COVID foot traffic. In New York, remote work policy shifts by major employers like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan appear to have helped set a new tone for the financial sector. And Miami may have benefited from Florida’s early lifting of COVID restrictions in late 2020, as well as from the steady influx of tech companies over the past several years.
San Francisco, for its part, continued to lag behind the other major cities in 2023, with office building foot traffic still 55.1% below 2019 levels. But on a YoY basis, the northern California hub experienced the greatest visit growth of any analyzed city, indicating that San Francisco’s office recovery is still unfolding.
To better understand the relationship between employees’ occupational backgrounds and local office recovery trends, we examined the share of Financial, Insurance, and Real Estate sector workers in the captured markets of different cities’ office buildings. (A POI’s captured market is derived by weighting the census block groups (CBGs) in its True Trade Area according to the share of actual visits from each CBG – thus providing a snapshot of the people that actually visit the POI in practice). We then compared this metric to each city’s year-over-four-year (Yo4Y) office visit gap.
The analysis suggests that the finance sector has indeed been an important driver of office recovery. Generally speaking, cities with greater shares of employees from this sector tended to experience greater office recovery than other urban centers. And for New York City in particular, the dominance of the finance industry may go some way towards explaining the city’s emergence as an RTO leader.
Regional differences notwithstanding, office foot traffic has yet to rebound to pre-COVID levels in any major U.S. market. But counting visits only tells part of the RTO story. Stakeholders seeking to adapt to the new normal also need to understand the evolving characteristics of the in-office crowd. Are office-goers more or less affluent than they were four years ago? And is there a difference in the employee age breakdown?
To explore the evolution of the demographic and psychographic attributes of office-goers since COVID, we analyzed the captured markets of buildings included in the Placer.ai Office Indexes with data from STI (Popstats) and Spatial.ai (PersonaLive). And strikingly, despite stubborn Yo4Y office visit gaps, the profiles of last year’s office visitors largely resembled what they were before COVID – with some marked shifts. This may serve as a further indication that 2023 brought us closer to an emerging new normal.
The median household income (HHI) of the Office Indexes fell during COVID. But by 2022, the median HHI in the trade areas of the Office Indexes was climbing back nationwide in all cities analyzed, and fell just 0.6% short of 2019 levels in 2023. And in some cities, including San Francisco and Dallas, the median HHI of office-goers is higher now than it was pre-pandemic.
Better-paid, and more experienced employees often have more access to remote and hybrid work opportunities – and at the height of the pandemic, it was these workers that disproportionately stayed home. But as COVID receded, many of them came back to the office. Now, even if high-income workers – like many other employees – are coming in less frequently, their share of office visitors has very nearly bounced back to what it was before COVID.
Who are the affluent employees driving the median HHI back up? Foot traffic data suggests that much of the HHI rebound may be fueled by “Educated Urbanites” – a segment defined by Spatial.ai PersonaLive as affluent, educated singles between the ages of 24 and 35 living in urban areas.
For younger employees in particular, fully remote work can come at a significant cost. A lot of learning takes place at the water cooler – and informal interactions with more experienced colleagues can be critical for professional development. Out of sight can also equal out of mind, making it more difficult for younger workers that don’t develop personal bonds with their co-workers and to potentially take other steps to advance their careers.
Analyzing the trade areas of offices across major markets shows that – while parents were somewhat less likely to visit office buildings in 2023 than in 2019 – affluent young professionals are making in-person attendance a priority. Indeed, in 2023, the share of “Educated Urbanites” in offices’ captured markets exceeded pre-COVID levels in most analyzed cities – although the share of this segment still varied between regions, as did the magnitude of the shift over time.
Miami and Dallas, both of which feature relatively small shares of this demographic, saw more dramatic increases relative to their 2019 baselines – but smaller jumps in absolute terms. On the other end of the spectrum lay San Francisco, where the share of “Educated Urbanites” jumped from 47.8% in 2019 to a remarkable 50.0% in 2023. New York office buildings, for their parts, saw the share of this segment rise from 28.8% in 2019 to 31.0% in 2023.
Other segments’ RTO patterns seem a little more mixed. The share of “Ultra Wealthy Families” – a segment consisting of affluent Gen Xers between the ages of 45 and 54 – is still slightly below pre-COVID levels on a nationwide basis. In 2023, this segment made up 13.0% of the Nationwide Office Index’s captured market – down slightly from 13.3% in 2019. In New York and San Francisco, for example – both of which saw the share of “Educated Urbanites” exceed pre-COVID levels last year – the share of “Ultra Wealthy Families” remained lower in 2023 than in 2019. At the same time, some cities’ Office Indexes, such as Miami, Dallas, and Los Angeles, have seen the share of this segment grow Yo4Y.
Workers belonging to this demographic tend to be more established in their careers, and may be less likely to be caring for small children. Well-to-do Gen Xers may also be more likely to be executives, called back to the office to lead by example. But employees belonging to this segment may consider the return to in-person work to be a choice rather than a necessity, which could explain this cohort’s more varied pace of RTO.
COVID supercharged the WFH revolution, upending traditional commuting patterns and offering employees and companies alike a taste of the advantages of a more flexible approach to work. But as employers and workers seek to negotiate the right balance between at-home and in-person work, the office landscape remains very much in flux. And by keeping abreast of nationwide and regional foot traffic trends – as well as the shifting demographic and psychographic characteristics of today’s office-goers – stakeholders can adapt to this fast-changing reality.
