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Discount & dollar stores had a strong Q2 2024, as consumers continued to prioritize value amid persistent high prices. We dove into the data for category leaders Dollar General and Dollar Tree to take a closer look at the drivers of these chains’ most recent success.
Dollar General – the nation’s largest dollar store player – opened nearly 200 stores last quarter, surpassing 20,000 U.S. locations. And Dollar Tree, the second-biggest dollar store chain by real estate footprint, stands at over 8,300 locations, including more than 100 new additions in the first months of 2024.
These chains’ significant fleet expansions continue to fuel foot traffic growth. Both Dollar General and Dollar Tree saw consistently positive YoY visit growth during the first seven months of 2024. Only in April 2024 did Dollar Tree’s YoY foot traffic appear to falter, likely as a result of decreased YoY demand for its traditional holiday merch due to an Easter calendar shift.
On a quarterly basis, YoY visits to Dollar General and Dollar Tree in Q2 2024 rose 13.1% and 8.4%, respectively. Over the same period, the two chains also experienced YoY increases in the average number of visits to each of their locations (10.3% for Dollar General and 3.7% for Dollar Tree), indicating that visits to individual stores remained robust as the brands grew.
And both brands plan on continuing to expand in the near future. Dollar General expects to open a total of 730 new stores in 2024, while Dollar Tree announced the takeover of 170 99 Cents Only Stores to complement the banner’s other openings. These strategic initiatives should continue to drive foot traffic gains for both brands in the coming months.
What’s behind Dollar General and Dollar Tree’s visit success? A look at changes in visitor interaction with the two chains suggests that for both dollar leaders, rising customer loyalty has played an important role.
Since July 2022, the share of visitors frequenting the two brands on a regular basis has been on an upward trajectory. In July 2024, 35.5% of Dollar General visitors frequented the chain at least three times during the month – up from 34.1% in July 2022. This increase in visitor frequency may be due in part to Dollar General’s inroads into the grocery space – giving consumers even more of a reason to visit the chain for daily essentials on a regular basis.
And though Dollar Tree’s somewhat more modest fleet drives a slightly smaller share of repeat visitors, it too has seen an increase in frequent visitors while investing in diversified offerings at various price-points – including consumables. In July 2024, 16.6% of Dollar Tree’s visitors also visited the chain at least three times, up from 13.9% in July 2022.
For both chains, visitor frequency is driven in part by seasonality, with loyalty upticks in December and May, likely driven by holiday season and Mother’s Day shoppers. Still, Dollar Tree, which remains a more traditional dollar store than Dollar General, experiences more dramatic seasonal visit peaks than its prime competitor – and its loyalty also follows a more pronounced seasonal pattern.
With the biggest players in the discount & dollar category seemingly going strong, will the second half of 2024 bring even more success to this retail space?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
Midway through 2024, foot traffic to Lowe’s and Home Depot – the leaders in the home improvement space – is climbing. What’s driving these retailers’ recent visit growth? We dove into the data to find out.
After a meteoric rise in foot traffic during the pandemic, the home improvement segment has experienced a turbulent few years – one of the primary reasons being a cool housing market that has curbed demand for projects. But after a significant period of consistent YoY visit gaps, visits to Lowe’s and Home Depot in 2024 appear to be matching and even slightly surpassing 2023 levels.
Between Q3 2023 and Q2 2024, Lowe’s and Home Depot both saw their YoY visit gaps gradually narrow and then close – finishing out Q2 with modest YoY gains. This turnaround may have been partly due to modest lifts in new home sales at the start of 2024 compared to 2023 – spurring an uptick in home improvement projects in the following months.
And though YoY visits to both retailers experienced a decline in July 2024 – perhaps due to May and June’s YoY declines in new and existing home sales – recent indications that the housing market may be heating up may bode well for the home improvement category in the second half of 2024 and beyond.
In addition to an increase in YoY visits, the resurgence of cross-shopping behavior between Home Depot and Lowe’s further suggests that a turnaround may be unfolding in the home improvement space. Location analytics shows that during recent home improvement booms, cross shopping between the two retailers was common, perhaps as judicious consumers taking on large projects looked to explore their options.
In Q2 of 2020 and 2021 – periods of strong foot traffic for both retailers – a large share of Lowe’s visitors also visited Home Depot. And although Lowe’s maintains a smaller retail footprint than Home Depot, many of Home Depot’s visitors visited a Lowe’s store as well.
But in the years that followed, economic headwinds led many consumers to defer their projects, and cross-shopping behavior began to moderate. In Q2 2023, only 48.8% of visitors to Lowe’s also visited Home Depot, and just 44.8% of Home Depot’s visitors visited Lowe’s.
However, in Q2 2024, consumers’ home improvement cross-shopping showed signs of a potential change of course. During the period, cross shopping between the brands climbed to 51.5% for Lowe’s and 45.7% for Home Depot. A return to in-store comparison shopping could mean that consumers are again taking on higher-stakes home improvement projects, which justify a visit to both retailers.
After an extended period of YoY visit gaps, foot traffic to the home improvement leaders is on the rise. Will Lowe’s and Home Depot continue to build on these positive visitation trends?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
With H2 2024 underway, we took a look at the foot traffic performance of superstores Walmart and Target, and membership warehouse clubs BJ’s Wholesale Club, Sam’s Club, and Costco. How did foot traffic compare to 2023’s visitation patterns? And what special events helped propel visits?
Superstores have been thriving – with YoY visits to retail giants Walmart and Target elevated consistently since May 2024. And though Target had a slower start to the year, YoY foot traffic to the chain picked up in Q2, and the retailer has been flourishing since. (Target and Walmart's April 2024 YoY foot traffic drops are likely attributable in part to calendar shifts: April 2023 had one more weekend than April 2024 – and one of them was Easter.)
Membership warehouse clubs have been faring even better, with Costco leading the pack in Q2. BJ’s and Sam’s Club also experienced strong visit growth, with July visits elevated by 5.6% YoY for both brands.
A closer look at the baseline change in quarterly visits since Q2 2019 further highlights the strong positioning of superstores and wholesale clubs in 2024. All five retailers drew more visits in Q2 2024 than they did pre-pandemic (Q2 2019).
But these visit increases have not been equally distributed across the retailers: While all of them experienced growth relative to a Q2 2019 baseline, membership warehouse visits have been outpacing those of superstores on a consistent basis since Q1 2023. As prime destinations for inexpensive, bulk buying, the segment has likely been buoyed by families and younger consumers seeking ways to save money on groceries and other basics amid high prices.
But superstores have also been having a moment. And one factor which may have contributed to Target’s Q2 2024 turnaround is its doubling down on loyalty: In April 2024, the chain revamped its Target Circle Rewards, adding, among other things, a new paid tier called Target Circle 360.
A key benefit of Target’s loyalty program, which is free to join for the regular tiers, is access to deep discounts during Target Circle Week. This year, the big sales event took place between July 7th and 13th – and examining foot traffic trends to the chain reveals that the promotion fueled a major visit boost: During the week of July 8th, weekly visits to Target were the highest they’ve been since the start of the year, and 6.8% higher than 2024’s weekly visit average. This year’s Circle Week visits also outperformed last year’s by 8.7%.
This demonstrates how the revamped loyalty program and exclusive sales events are successfully driving more customers to Target stores. And other retailers are taking note, with Walmart debuting its own major summer sales events and Costco and Sam’s Club battling it out for the most affordable prices – a major win for shoppers nationwide.
Superstores enjoyed elevated visitation patterns in Q2 2024. Will the superstore and wholesale club price wars continue? And with back-to-school shopping well underway, and the holiday shopping season quickly approaching, how will these retailers continue to perform?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven retail news.
Summer is underway, and malls are still bustling. In July 2024, visits to indoor malls and open-air shopping centers were up 2.5% and 2.4%, respectively, compared to the equivalent period of 2023. Though these year-over-year (YoY) increases were more moderate than the significant jumps observed in May and June, they underscore the segment’s continued solid positioning. Outlet malls, for their parts, saw a slight 0.4% decline in mall visits compared to July 2023.
At first glance, July’s softer numbers – particularly for outlet malls – may appear to herald the start of a retail and mall visit summer slow-down. But zooming into weekly visit data offers further context that can shed light on what may lie ahead in the coming months.
Analyzing week-over-week (WoW) visit trends shows that during the last two weeks of June and the first two weeks of July, all three mall indexes saw visits either decline or hold steady from week to week. The one notable exception was outlet malls – which experienced an impressive and sudden 13.7% WoW surge in visits to outlet malls during the first week of July, driven by the segment's exceptional Independence Day draw. Outlet malls’ subsequent WoW visit drop also reflects this exceptional Fourth of July peak.
The final two weeks of July showed a change in visit trajectory, with all three mall segments experiencing growing WoW visit gains as traffic picked up towards the end of the month. This upward trend can likely be attributed to the back-to-school season getting into full swing, with sales typically running from mid to late July through August and into mid-September.
Here too, the late July WoW visit gains were strongest for outlet malls – perhaps showcasing consumers' prioritization of budget shopping ahead of the new school year.
The Placer.ai Mall Index has frequently highlighted the power of special calendar milestones to drive significant shopping center visit spikes. And Independence Day is no exception.
On July 4th, shoppers nationwide flock to stores for holiday deals, often after enjoying hotdogs, hamburgers, and other festive treats. But though all three mall types have shops that are open on the holiday, it is outlet malls that really draw the crowds. On July 4th, 2024, visits to outlet malls shot up 50.7% compared to an average YTD Thursday. Foot traffic to indoor malls and open-air shopping centers, on the other hand, remained below levels usually seen on Thursdays.
Between Fourth of July sales and a long, summer holiday weekend, many consumers chose to spend their time off this year driving out to outlet malls and browsing their offerings to find the best deals.
Between the Fourth of July and back-to-school shopping, July was yet another busy month across shopping malls nationwide. But how will malls continue to fare in August as school goes back into session and summer vacationers go back to work?
Follow our blog at Placer.ai to find out.
Employers from local governments to major corporations are tightening their return-to-office (RTO) policies – cracking down on practices like coffee-badging and requiring employees to relocate closer to the workplace. Last month, the Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index showed that offices throughout much of the U.S. were the busiest they’d been since the pandemic. But what happened in July 2024?
We dove into the data to find out.
In July 2024, visits to office buildings nationwide were down just 27.8% compared to July 2019 – outpacing even June 2024’s impressive showing. Stated differently, July 2024 office building foot traffic reached 72.2% of July 2019 levels – and the highest it’s been since the pandemic. So even if some RTO mandates are intended to encourage “voluntary turnover” – i.e. make some workers quit – stricter face time policies are also having an appreciable impact on the ground.
Drilling down into the data for major cities nationwide shows that, once again, Miami and New York led the regional recovery pack in July – with visits to offices in both cities reaching about 90% of July 2019 levels. For both cities, as well as Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Denver, Los Angeles, and San Francisco, July 2024 was the single busiest in-office month since 2020. And though Dallas and Washington, D.C. experienced busier months earlier in the year, both hubs outperformed the nationwide baseline in July – with local offices recouping 76.9% and 73.9%, respectively, of July 2019 office foot traffic.
Houston office visits, for their part, continued to be weighed down by stormy weather – with flooding and power outages in the wake of hurricane Beryl keeping many local residents hunkered down at home.
Despite these differences, all 11 analyzed cities experienced year-over-year (YoY) visit growth in July 2024 – further evidence that the office recovery remains very much underway. Miami led with 22.8% YoY visit growth, followed by West Coast hubs San Francisco and Los Angeles. And though hurricane-hit Houston unsurprisingly lagged behind other cities, it too saw YoY growth.
“Hushed hybrid” trends notwithstanding, offices were busier in July 2024 than during any other month since the pandemic. How much longer will the RTO continue to accelerate?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven office recovery analyses to find out.
After theaters were dominated by Barbenheimer in 2023, 2024 is shaping up to be another record-breaking year, with several big-name releases. We took a closer look at visitation patterns at major movie theater chains – AMC Theatres, Regal Cinemas, and Cinemark – to analyze how foot traffic has been impacted by the highly anticipated summer releases of Deadpool & Wolverine and Twisters.
Last year was one of the most exciting ones in recent memory for cinema, with multiple films breaking box-office records and driving foot traffic at movie theaters across the country. But 2024 has had plenty of tricks up its cinematic sleeve, and several summer releases have been meeting the high bar set by Barbenheimer. Inside Out 2, released nationwide on June 14th 2024, kickstarted the summer with a major movie-goer visit boost– and Deadpool & Wolverine, released on July 26, 2024 brought out even bigger crowds.
Indeed, the superhero crossover movie Deadpool & Wolverine is set to be one of the best-performing films of 2024. During the week of July 22nd, 2024 – when Deadpool & Wolverine was released – visits to movie leaders AMC Theatres, Regal Cinemas, and Cinemark jumped by 132.7% to 140.5% compared to a YTD weekly average. Twisters, released on July 19th, also drove impressive visit boosts ranging from 39.8% to 48.3% during the week of July 15th.
Early screenings have always been a big driver of visits for those lucky enough to grab tickets. And on the day before Deadpool & Wolverine’s big July 26th release, movie theaters already started filling up. On Thursday, July 25th, 2024, visits to AMC, Regal, and Cinemark were up a whopping 231.4% to 249.7% compared to a YTD Thursday average. And Friday, Saturday, and Sunday continued to see visit numbers significantly higher than the YTD visit averages for those days of the week, confirming the movie’s ability to drive visits to theaters. (In absolute terms, Saturday, July 27th was the cinema leaders’ busiest day of the year so far – but since Saturdays tend to be busier than Thursdays, the relative visit spike was somewhat smaller).
Drilling down into the data for major markets shows that though Deadpool & Wolverine was the runaway hit of the summer, Twisters also drove significant visit spikes throughout the country. And of the major markets, some of Twisters’ biggest visit boosts took place in states with plenty of hands-on tornado experience – like Texas, where July 19th visits to AMC, Regal, and Cinemark (combined) were up 98.5% compared to a YTD daily average.
Indeed, looking at the states where Twisters drove the biggest visit spikes shows that many of the top performers were in tornado-prone areas. Oklahoma – where much of the movie was filmed – saw the most impressive Twisters foot traffic bump, with visits to leading cinemas up 224.1% on July 19th, 2024 compared to a YTD daily average. And the tornado-focused thriller also drew outsize crowds in other states where the theme of the movie was more likely than average to resonate with local audiences’ personal experiences – including Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, Iowa, Missouri, and Kansas.
Blockbuster releases like Deadpool & Wolverine, Twisters, and Inside Out 2 highlight the enduring appeal of out-of-home entertainment, and proves that movie theaters are as relevant as ever.
With more highly-anticipated releases still yet to come in 2024, can movie theaters across the country continue to break visit records?
Visit Placer.ai to stay on top of the latest data-driven leisure and entertainment stories.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Grabbing a coffee or snack at a convenience store is a time-honored road trip tradition – but increasingly, Convenience Stores (C-Stores) have also emerged as places people go out of their way to visit.
Convenience stores have thrived in recent years, making inroads into the discretionary dining space and growing both their audiences and their sales. Between April 2023 and March 2024, C-Stores experienced consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit growth, generally outperforming Overall Retail. Unsurprisingly, C-Stores fell behind Overall Retail in November and December 2023, when holiday shoppers flocked to malls and superstores to buy gifts for loved ones. But in January 2024, the segment regained its lead, growing YoY visits even as Overall Retail languished in the face of an Arctic blast that had many consumers hunkering down at home.
C-Stores’ current strength is partially due to the significant innovation by leading players in the space: Chains like Casey’s, Maverik, Buc-ee’s, and Rutter’s are investing in both in their product offerings and in their physical venues to transform the humble C-Store from a stop along the way into a bona fide destination. Dive into the data to explore some of the key strategies helping C-Stores drive consumer engagement and stay ahead of the pack.
While chain expansion may explain some of the C-Store segment growth, a look at visit-per-location trends shows that demand is growing at the store level as well. Over the past year (April 2023 to March 2024), average visits per location on an industry-wide basis grew by 1.8%, compared to the year prior (April 2022 to 2023).
And within this growing segment, some brands are distinguishing themselves and outperforming category averages. Casey’s, for example, saw the average number of visits to each of its locations increase by 2.3% over the same time frame – while Maverik, Buc-ee’s and Rutter’s saw visits per location increase by 3.2%, 3.4% and 3.9%, respectively.
Each in its own way, Casey’s, Maverik, Buc-ee’s, and Rutter’s, are helping to transform C-Stores from pit stops where people can stretch their legs and grab a cup of coffee to destinations in and of themselves.
Midwestern gas and c-store chain Casey’s – famous for its breakfast pizza and other grab-and-go breakfast items – has emerged as a prime spot for fast food pizza lovers to grab a slice first thing in the morning. And Salt Lake City, Utah-based Maverik – which recently acquired Kum & Go and its 400-plus stores – is also establishing itself as a breakfast destination thanks to its specialty burritos and other chef-inspired creations.
Casey’s and Maverik’s popular breakfast options are likely helping the chains receive its larger-than-average share of morning visits: In Q1 2024, 16.3% of visits to Maverik and 17.5% of visits to Casey’s took place during the 7:00 AM - 10:00 AM daypart, compared to just 14.9% of visits to the wider C-Store category.
Psychographic data from the Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph dataset – which looks at the social media activity of a given audience – also suggests that Casey’s and Maverik’s have opened stores in locations that allow them to reach their target audience. Compared to the average consumer, residents of Casey’s potential market are 7% more likely to be “Fast Food Pizza Lovers” than both the average consumer and the average C-Store trade area resident. Residents of Maverik’s potential market are 16% more likely than the average consumer to be “Mexican Food Enthusiasts,” compared to residents of the average C-Store’s trade area who are only 1% more likely to fall into that category.
With both chains expanding, Casey’s and Maverik can hope to introduce new audiences to their unique breakfast options and solidify their hold over the morning daypart within the C-Store space over the next few years.
Everything is said to be bigger in the Lone Star State, and Texas-based convenience store chain Buc-ee’s – holder of the record for the worlds’ largest C-Store – is no exception. With a unique array of specialty food items and award-winning bathrooms, Buc-ee’s has emerged as a well-known tourist attraction. And the popular chain’s status as a visitor hotspot is reflected in two key metrics.
First, Buc-ee’s attracts a much greater share of weekend visits than other convenience store chains. In Q1 2024, 39.6% of visits to Buc-ee’s took place on the weekends, compared to just 28.3% for the wider C-Store industry. And second, Buc-ee’s captured markets feature higher-than-average shares of family-centric households – including those belonging to Experian: Mosaic’s Suburban Style, Flourishing Families, and Promising Families segments.
Rather than merely a place to stop on the way to work, Buc-ee’s has emerged as a favored destination for families and for people looking for something fun to do on their days off.
Buc-ee’s isn’t the only C-Store chain that believes bigger is better. Pennsylvania-based Rutter’s is increasing visits and customer dwell time by expanding its footprint – both in terms of store count and venue size. New stores will be 10,000 to 12,000 square feet – significantly larger than the industry average of around 3,100 square feet. And in more urban areas, where space is at a premium, the company is building upwards.
Rutter’s added a second floor to one of its existing locations in York, PA in December 2023. The remodel, which was met with enthusiasm by customers, provided additional seating for up to 30 diners, a beer cave, and an expanded wine selection. And in Q1 2024, the location experienced 15.6% YoY visit growth – compared to a chainwide average of 7.6%. Visitors to the newly remodeled Rutter’s also stayed significantly longer than they did pre-renovation. The share of extended visits to the store (longer than ten minutes) grew from 20.8% in Q1 2023 to 27.0% in Q1 2024 – likely from people browsing the chain’s selection of beers or grabbing a bite to eat.
Convenience stores are flourishing, transforming into some of the most exciting dining and tourist destinations in the country. Today, C-Store customers can expect to find brisket sandwiches, gourmet coffees, or craft beers, rather than the stale cups of coffee of old. And the data shows that customers are receptive to these innovations, helping drive the segment’s success.
The first quarter of 2024 was generally a good one for retailers. Though unusually cold and stormy weather left its mark on the sector’s January performance, February and March saw steady year-over-year (YoY) weekly visit growth that grew more robust as the quarter wore on.
March ended on a high note, with the week of March 25th – including Easter Sunday – seeing a 6.1% YoY visit boost, driven in part by increased retail activity in the run-up to the holiday. (Last year, Easter fell on April 9th, 2023, so the week of March 25th is being compared to a regular week.)
Though prices remain high and consumer confidence has yet to fully regain its footing, retail’s healthy Q1 showing may be a sign of good things to come in 2024.
Drilling down into the data for leading retail segments demonstrates the continued success of value-priced, essential, and wellness-related categories.
Discount & Dollar Stores led the pack with 11.2% YoY quarterly visit growth, followed by Grocery Stores, Fitness, and Superstores – all of which outperformed Overall Retail. Dining also enjoyed a YoY quarterly visit bump, despite the segment’s largely discretionary nature. And despite the high interest rates continuing to weigh on the housing and home renovation markets, Home Improvement & Furnishings maintained just a minor YoY visit gap.
Discount & Dollar Stores experienced strong YoY visit growth throughout most of Q1 – and as go-to destinations for groceries and other other essential goods, they held their own even during mid-January’s Arctic blast. In the last week of March, shoppers flocked to leading discount chains for everything from chocolate Easter bunnies to basket-making supplies – driving a remarkable 21.5% YoY visit spike.
Dollar General continued to dominate the Discount & Dollar Store space in Q1, with visits to its locations accounting for nearly half of the segment’s quarterly foot traffic (44.7%). Next in line was Dollar Tree, followed by Family Dollar and Five Below. Together, the four chains – all of which experienced positive YoY quarterly visit growth – drew a whopping 91.6% of quarterly visits to the category.
Rain or shine, people have to eat. And like Discount & Dollar Stores, traditional Grocery Stores were relatively busy through January as shoppers braved the storms to stock up on needed items. Momentum continued to build throughout the quarter, culminating in a 10.5% foot traffic increase in the week ending with Easter Sunday.
Like in other categories, it was budget-friendly Grocery banners that took the lead. No-frills Aldi drove a chain-wide 24.4% foot traffic increase in Q1, by expanding its fleet – while also growing the average number of visits per location. Other value-oriented chains, including Trader Joe’s and Food Lion, experienced significant foot traffic increases of their own. And though conventional grocery leaders like H-E-B, Kroger, and Albertsons saw smaller visit bumps, they too outperformed Q1 2023 by meaningful margins.
January is New Year’s resolution season – when people famously pick themselves up off the couch, dust off their trainers, and vow to go to the gym more often. And with wellness still top of mind for many consumers, the Fitness category enjoyed robust YoY visit growth throughout most of Q1 – despite lapping a strong Q1 2023.
Predictably, Fitness’s visit growth slowed during the last week of March, when many Americans likely indulged in Easter treats rather than work out. But given the category’s strength over the past several years, there is every reason to believe it will continue to flourish.
For Fitness chains, too, cost was key to success in Q1 – with value gyms experiencing the biggest visit jumps. EōS Fitness and Crunch Fitness, both of which offer low-cost membership options, saw their Q1 visits skyrocket 28.9% and 22.0% YoY, respectively – helped in part by aggressive expansions. At the same time, premium and mid-range gyms like Life Time and LA Fitness are also finding success – showing that when it comes to Fitness, there’s plenty of room for a variety of models to thrive.
Superstores – including wholesale clubs – are prime destinations for big, planned shopping expeditions – during which customers can load up on a month’s supply of food items or stock up on home goods. And perhaps for this reason, the category felt the impact of January’s inclement weather more than either dollar chains or supermarkets – which are more likely to see shoppers pop in as needed for daily essentials.
But like Grocery Stores and Discount & Dollar Stores, Superstores ended the quarter with an impressive YoY visit spike, likely fueled by Easter holiday shoppers.
As in Q4 2023, membership warehouse chains – Costco Wholesale, BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Sam’s Club – drove much of the Superstore category’s positive visit growth, as shoppers likely engaged in mission-driven shopping in an effort to stretch their budgets. Still, segment mainstays Walmart and Target also enjoyed positive foot traffic growth, with YoY visits up 3.9% and 3.5%, respectively.
Moving into more discretionary territory, Dining experienced a marked January slump, as hunkered-down consumers likely opted for delivery. But the segment rallied in February and March, even though foot traffic dipped slightly during the last week of March, when many families gathered to enjoy home-cooked holiday meals.
Coffee Chains and Fast-Casual Restaurants saw the largest YoY visit increases, followed by QSR – highlighting the enduring power of lower-cost, quick-serve dining options. But Full-Service Restaurants (FSR) also saw a slight segment-wide YoY visit uptick in Q1 – good news for a sector that has yet to bounce back from the one-two punch of COVID and inflation. Within each Dining category, however, some chains experienced outsize visit growth – including favorites like Dutch Bros. Coffee, Slim Chickens, In-N-Out Burger, and Texas Roadhouse.
Since the shelter-in-place days of COVID – when everybody had their sourdough starter and DIY was all the rage – Home Improvement & Furnishings chains have faced a tough environment. Many deferred or abandoned home improvement projects in the wake of inflation, and elevated interest rates coupled with a sluggish housing market put a further damper on the category.
Against this backdrop, Home Improvement & Furnishings’ relatively lackluster Q1 visit performance should come as no surprise. But the narrowing of the visit gap in March – which also saw one week of positive visit growth – may serve as a promising sign for the segment. (The abrupt foot traffic drop during the week of March 25th, 2024 is likely a just reflection of Easter holiday shopping pattern.)
Within the Home Improvement & Furnishings space, some bright spots stood out in Q1 – including Harbor Freight Tools, which saw visits increase by 10.0%, partly due to the brand’s growing store count. Tractor Supply Co., Menards, and Ace Hardware also registered visit increases.
January 2024’s stormy weather left its mark on the Q1 retail environment, especially for discretionary categories. But as the quarter progressed, retailers rallied, with healthy YoY foot traffic growth that peaked during the last week of March – the week of Easter Sunday. All in all, retail’s positive Q1 performance leaves plenty of room for optimism about what’s in store for the rest of 2024.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Over the past year, Fast-Casual & Quick-Service Restaurant (QSR) chains have thrived, consistently outperforming the Full-Service Dining segment with positive year-over-year (YoY) visit growth every quarter since 2023. In this white paper, we dive into the data for leading dining chains to take a closer look at what’s driving visitors to the QSR segment and what other dining categories can learn from fast-food’s success.
One of the key factors separating QSR chains – aptly known as “fast food” – from the rest of the dining industry is the speed at which diners can get a ready-to-eat meal in their hands. And within the QSR space, speed of service is one of the ways chains differentiate themselves from their competition.
Leading fast-food chains are investing heavily in technologies and systems designed to help them serve customers ever more quickly:
Taco Bell’s “Touch Display Kitchen System” is designed to optimize cooking operations and improve wait times, while the chain’s Go Mobile restaurant format seeks to alleviate bottlenecks in the drive-thru lane. Chick-fil-A also has dedicated channels for quick mobile order pick-up and is planning four-lane drive-thrus with second-floor kitchens to get meals out even faster. And to save time at the drive-thru, Wendy’s is experimenting with generative AI and developing an underground, robotic system to deliver digital orders to designated parking spots within seconds.
And location intelligence shows that all three chains are succeeding in reducing customer wait times. Over the past four years, Taco Bell, Chick-fil-A, and Wendy’s have seen steady increases in the share of visits to their venues lasting less than 10 minutes.
The data also suggests that investment in speed of service can increase overall visitation to QSR venues.
In late 2022, McDonald’s opened a to-go-only location outside of Dallas, TX with a lane dedicated to mobile order fulfillment via a conveyor belt. And in Q1 2024, this venue not only had a larger share of short visits compared to the other McDonald’s locations in the region, but also more visits compared to the McDonald’s average visits per venue in the Dallas-Fort Worth CBSA.
This provides further support for the power of fast order fulfillment to drive QSR visits, with customers motivated by the prospect of getting in and out quickly.
The success of the fast-food segment is even driving other restaurants to borrow typical QSR formats – especially during time slots when people are most likely to grab a bite to eat on the go.
In September 2023, full-service leader Applebee’s opened a new format: a fast casual location focusing on To Go orders in Deer Park, NY, featuring pick-up lockers for digital orders and limited dine-in options without table service.
And the new format is already attracting outsized weekday and lunchtime crowds. In Q1 2024, 20.5% of visits to the chain’s To Go venue took place during the 12:00 PM - 2:00 PM time slot, while the average Applebee’s in the New York-Newark-Jersey City CBSA received less than 10% of its daily visits during that daypart. The new restaurant also drew a significantly higher share of weekday visits than other nearby venues.
This suggests that takeaway-focused venues could help full-service chains grow their visit share during weekdays and the coveted lunch rush, when consumers may be less inclined to have a sit-down meal.
An additional factor contributing to QSR and Fast Casual success in 2024 may be the rise of chicken-based chains. Chicken is a versatile ingredient that has remained relatively affordable, which could be contributing to its growing popularity and the rapid expansion of several chicken chains.
Comparing the relative visit share (not including delivery) of various sub-segments within the wider Fast Casual & QSR space showed that the share of visits to chains with chicken-based menus has increased steadily between 2019 and 2023: In Q1 2024, 15.3% of Fast Casual & QSR visits were to a chicken restaurant concept, compared to just 13.4% in Q1 2019.
The strength of chicken-based concepts is also evident when comparing average visits per venue at leading chicken chains with the wider Fast Casual & QSR average.
Both Chick-fil-A, the nation’s predominant chicken chain, and Raising Cane’s, a rapidly expanding player in the fast-food chicken space, are receiving significantly more visits per venue than their Fast Casual & QSR peers: In Q1 2024, Raising Cane’s and Chick-fil-A restaurants saw an average of 153.0% and 237.7% more visits per venue, respectively, compared to the combined Fast Casual & QSR industries average.
The elevated traffic at chicken chains likely plays a part in their profitability per restaurant relative to other Fast Casual & QSR concepts with more sizable fleets.
QSR and Fast-Casual chains are also particularly adept at generating seasonal visit spikes through unique Limited Time Offers and holiday promotions adapted to the calendar.
Arby’s recently launched a 2 for $6 sandwich promotion on February 1st, with two of the three sandwich options on promotion being fish-based in an apparent attempt to entice diners eschewing meat in observance of Lent. The company also brought back a specialty fish sandwich, likely with the goal of further appealing to the Lent-observing demographic.
The offers seem to have driven significant traffic spikes, with foot traffic during the promotion period significantly higher than the January daily visit average. And traffic was particularly elevated during Lent – which this year fell on Wednesday, February 14th through Thursday, March 28th, with visits spiking on Fridays when those observing are most likely to seek out fish-based meals.
Some of the elevated visits in the second half of Q1 may be attributed to the comparison to a weaker January across the dining segment. But the success of the fish-forward promotion specifically during Lent suggests that the company’s calendar-appropriate LTO played a major role in driving visits to the chain.
Shorter-term promotions – even those lasting just a single day – can also drive major visit spikes.
Since 1991, White Castle has transformed its fast-food restaurants into a reservation-only, “fine-dining” experience for dinner on Valentine's Day. In 2024, Valentine’s Day fell on a Wednesday, and White Castle’s sit-down event drove a 11.8% visit increase relative to the average Wednesday in Q1 2024 and a 3.9% visit increase compared to the overall Q1 2024 daily average.
The elevated visit numbers over Valentine’s Day are even more impressive when considering that a full-service dining room can accommodate fewer visitors than the drive-thrus and counter service of White Castle’s typical QSR configuration. The spike in February 14th visits may also be attributed to an increased number of diners showing up throughout the day to take in the Valentine’s Day buzz.
QSR and Fast-Casual dining are having a moment. And the data shows that a combination of factors – including fast and efficient service, the rising popularity of chicken-based dining concepts, and effective LTOs – are all playing a part in the categories’ recent success.
