.svg)
%20(1).avif)
June marked the third consecutive month of year-over-year (YoY) visit growth across all three mall formats, and AI-powered audience analysis suggests these gains are coming from an increasingly diverse customer base. We dove into the foot traffic data to see what's driving mall performance heading into the second half of the year.
Visits to indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls all remained in positive YoY territory in June 2026, with indoor mall visits up 1.2%, open-air shopping center visits up 5.1%, and outlet mall visits up 1.0% compared to June 2025.
June's performance caps a strong first half of the year. Aside from a March dip, likely driven in part by calendar shifts and by the initial gas price shock, every month of 2026 has seen visit growth across all three formats – though open-air shopping centers continue to set the pace. The format has posted the strongest YoY visit growth every month this year and has hovered above 5.0% growth in both May and June, highlighting the enduring appeal of outdoor, convenience-driven retail as the weather warms up.
Analyzing malls' captured market audience makes the outlook for malls even more compelling heading into H2 2026. Much of the recent retail narrative has centered on a bifurcated consumer, with spending growth concentrated among higher-income households while more value-conscious consumers pull back. Mall audience data, however, suggests a different dynamic.
Across all three mall formats, the median household income (HHI) of the captured market declined modestly between June 2025 and June 2026. Combined with rising visit volumes, this suggests that malls are broadening their appeal and attracting a wider range of consumers, including more value-conscious shoppers – suggesting that malls are expanding their customer base rather than relying more heavily on affluent shoppers.The category's combination of retail, dining, entertainment, and one-stop convenience may be helping malls resonate with a broader audience in an environment where consumers remain selective about discretionary spending.
With all three formats posting YoY visit growth and audiences broadening, malls enter the back half of 2026 with real momentum. As retailers and mall operators plan for the critical back-to-school and holiday seasons, the challenge will be converting this wider, more diverse audience into loyal, repeat visitors.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Consumers are entering the back half of 2026 under real pressure. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index registered 49.5 in June, the second-lowest reading in records going back to the 1970s and nearly 20% below where it sat a year earlier. According to Deloitte, roughly four in 10 Americans now exhibit deal-driven, cost-conscious habits, and close to seven in 10 retail executives view value-seeking as a structural change rather than a temporary one.
So when Amazon's Prime event ran June 23rd to 26th, alongside overlapping promotions from Walmart, Target, Best Buy, and Kohl's, the week became more than a battle for retail traffic. It became a barometer. Who shows up when the deals land, when they show up, and where they steer their trips offers a real-time read on how a pressured, deliberate consumer is actually behaving. We analyzed foot traffic across the four major chains to find out.
Measured against each retailer's year-to-date day-of-week average, the four major retailers analyzed all saw visits climb during Prime Week. Best Buy and Kohl's led the pack on opening day, with visits running 18.1% and 18.4% above their respective baselines on June 23. Target wasn't far behind at 16.3%, while Walmart posted a steadier 4.7% increase. And all four chains continued seeing visit gains throughout the analyzed period.
A lift across all four chains, not just Amazon's direct competitors in one category, suggests a consumer who is responsive and cross-shopping. When promotions appear, the value-seeker turns out, and they spread those trips across whichever retailers are running deals.
Isolating the event from seasonality sharpens the picture. Comparing daily visits to the prior five weeks' day-of-week average controls for longer-term trends, which matters this year because Prime Day shifted to late June, much closer to Memorial Day and Father's Day than usual and against a higher recent traffic baseline. Even on that tougher benchmark, Best Buy stood out, with visits up 12.3% on June 23 and holding double digits through Thursday. Target saw a meaningful early-week lift, while Walmart sat just below its recent baseline and Kohl's slipped to -3.9% by Friday.
Best Buy's strength against recent weeks carries the most useful read on the consumer. Electronics are big-ticket and discretionary, the kind of spending a pressured shopper might be expected to defer. But the event-driven lift suggests that consumers have not stopped making sizable purchases – they have just made them event-dependent.
But stacking 2026 against the comparable 2025 Prime Week (July 8th to 11th) adds another layer to the story. Target was the standout performer here, with visits up 10.3% year-over-year (YoY) on opening day and gains every single day of the event. Kohl's also outpaced last year through most of the week, while Walmart held modestly positive ground throughout.
Best Buy tells the most complex story. Even as it posted the strongest event-driven lift relative to recent weeks, its visits ran 2% to 5% below last year's Prime Week – a reminder that a strong showing against a recent baseline doesn't always translate to year-over-year growth. These YoY declines suggest that while compelling promotions can still draw shoppers into stores, they have not fully offset softer demand for discretionary electronics.
Analyzing offline traffic to major retailers during Prime Day 2026 suggests that, although sentiment may be near record lows and value-seeking may now be a fixed habit, the appetite to spend is still there – although it has become more deliberate.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Bed Bath & Beyond returned to physical retail in August 2025, when the first store to carry the name since the chain's 2023 liquidation opened in Brentwood, Tennessee. The format signaled how much the strategy had changed. At roughly 15,000 square feet, in a former Kirkland's, the location is a fraction of the 25,000-to-50,000-square-foot stores the brand operated before bankruptcy, reflecting a deliberate move toward smaller, neighborhood-format stores.
The format shift is just one element of a broader restructuring. The name now belongs to Beyond Inc. – since renamed Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. – which is reviving the legacy brand through two distinct acquisitions. The company is acquiring Kirkland's, the home-decor chain, and converting select stores into small-format Bed Bath & Beyond Home locations, and has also agreed to acquire The Container Store and co-brand its stores as "The Container Store / Bed Bath & Beyond."
But in a category that increasingly rewards discounters and sharply differentiated retailers, is there still room for a brand like Bed Bath & Beyond, and in what form?
It is easy to forget how dominant Bed Bath & Beyond once was. In 2019, already past its heyday, it still captured the single largest share of visits to home furnishing retailers in the country, acting as the broad, generalist default for the category.
A lot has changed since. Visits to brick-and-mortar home furnishing retailers fell roughly 27% from 2019 to 2025, and within that smaller pie the leaderboard reshuffled around Bed Bath & Beyond's absence. HomeGoods now sits at the front, reflecting where the category's momentum has gone – toward off-price and sharply differentiated retailers. At the same time, no single full-price, national retailer moved into the position Bed Bath & Beyond vacated, the broad home brand that shoppers across very different incomes and life stages defaulted to.
That open role is the opening a revived Bed Bath & Beyond is built around. The brand is betting that what failed was the format – a massive store carrying an exhaustive, full-price assortment behind a coupon, which is a format that off-price now beats on price and that specialists beat on focus. But the recognition itself, a name a wide range of shoppers still associate with outfitting a home, has remained strong, and the comeback may work if it claims the role without rebuilding the format. That is what the unusual structure is designed to do.
Share of Total Home Furnishing Visits by Chain — the 20 Largest Plus All Others — 2019 vs. 2025
Circle area is proportional to each year's total visits, which fell about 27% from 2019 to 2025. Slices show each chain's share of all home furnishing visits; the 20 largest chains are shown individually and the remainder is grouped as "Other." Bed Bath & Beyond liquidated all its stores in 2023 (its small 2025 relaunch was too recent to register here); Christmas Tree Shops (2023) and Conn's HomePlus (2024) closed all locations and have not returned. Source: Placer.ai.
| Retailer | 2019 visit share | 2025 visit share |
|---|---|---|
| Bed Bath & Beyond | 23.7% | 0.0% |
| HomeGoods | 19.3% | 38.3% |
| IKEA | 11.5% | 11.2% |
| At Home | 7.5% | 10.5% |
| World Market | 5.3% | 7.2% |
| Ashley | 4.4% | 5.1% |
| Kirkland's | 4.0% | 3.0% |
| Christmas Tree Shops | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| The Container Store | 1.8% | 1.6% |
| Rooms To Go Furniture Store | 1.7% | 1.8% |
| Bob's Discount Furniture | 1.4% | 2.7% |
| Pottery Barn | 1.1% | 1.2% |
| Crate and Barrel | 1.0% | 1.4% |
| Old Time Pottery | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| Conn's HomePlus | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| La-Z-Boy | 0.9% | 1.0% |
| Value City Furniture | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| Raymour & Flanigan Furniture Store | 0.7% | 0.9% |
| Homesense | 0.7% | 2.9% |
| Living Spaces | 0.7% | 1.1% |
| RH (Restoration Hardware) | 0.0% | 0.8% |
| Norwalk Furniture | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| Furniture Row | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| Other | 7.8% | 6.8% |
Rather than reopen its own stores, Bed Bath & Beyond is returning through two retailers it is absorbing, both of which have been losing visits year over year. The declines are not one shared problem but two different ones, and the logic of the comeback is that the Bed Bath & Beyond name addresses each.
The Container Store's difficulty is frequency, with a business organized around storage and home organization – a category shoppers turn to only in occasional project bursts, and affluent customers likely have few reasons to come back between closet overhauls and moves. Co-branding the stores as Bed Bath & Beyond is meant to widen that reason to visit, folding in the everyday kitchen, bath, and bedding categories the name is known for, and lifting trip frequency without pushing away the premium shopper the chain already has.
Meanwhile, Kirkland's is a broad home-and-decor generalist without a sharp identity, sitting in the same exposed middle that off-price and specialists have been pulling apart – its stores draw a mainstream suburban shopper but offer little specific reason to choose them. Converting them to Bed Bath & Beyond Home is meant to supply that reason, a more recognized name with broader pull than the Kirkland's banner generated on its own.
Beyond improving the assortment, Bed Bath & Beyond can also boost traffic to converted Kirkland stores and co-branded The Container Stores by bringing in an audience that each chain lacks.
The Container Store draws a narrow, premium audience organized around storage and home organization, while Kirkland's draws a broader, more middle-income suburban shopper for general home goods and decor. Analysing each chain's trade area composition as well as Bed Bath & Beyond's 2019 audience suggests that Bed Bath & Beyond can help each one reach the half of the market it currently misses: In its last pre-COVID year, Bed Bath & Beyond over-indexed both among the premium households The Container Store already draws and among the mainstream suburban families that have long anchored Kirkland's.
And for Bed Bath & Beyond, the arrangement supplies two store networks aimed at different shoppers, one more affluent, one more mainstream, reached through a single name both still recognize.
At the same time, the challenges should not be understated. A recognized name is the beginning of a value proposition rather than a substitute for one, and the proposition the brand carried into bankruptcy, an exhaustive assortment paired with a coupon, is the one that ultimately failed.
But two years after the chain closed, many consumers still think of Bed Bath & Beyond as a destination for home essentials, the kind of store associated with furnishing a first apartment, outfitting a dorm, or building a wedding registry. And familiarity has proven effective at generating first visits, as a range of revived retailers from Abercrombie to Polaroid suggests, but converting those visits into a habit is a separate question. Whether shoppers return will depend less on the name above the door than on what the reformatted stores actually offer.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
When Red Lobster filed for bankruptcy in May 2024, much of the blame landed on a single menu item: a $20 Ultimate Endless Shrimp deal that proved far too popular for its own margins. The chain shuttered roughly 130 locations, was acquired by Fortress Investment Group, and brought in a new CEO to steady the brand.
So the decision to bring Endless Shrimp back in spring 2026 – this time as a limited-run promotion – wasn't an obvious one. We dove into the data to see how the relaunch is landing, and what it would take for Red Lobster's comeback to hold.
In the weeks before the Endless Shrimp relaunch, the average number of visits to each Red Lobster location was running below year-ago levels – down by as much as 8.7% year over year (YoY) the week of April 13, and lagging the broader full-service restaurant segment.
Then came April 20. During the first full week of the Ultimate Endless Shrimp promotion, Red Lobster's per-location visits flipped sharply positive and have stayed there since, peaking at 24.3% YoY the week of April 27 and holding double-digit gains into early June – though the magnitude of the boost has gently eased over time. Notably, this outperformance came while full-service restaurant traffic remained roughly flat YoY.
The traffic surge suggests that Red Lobster's brand equity remains strong. Even after bankruptcy, store closures, and years of operational challenges, the chain was able to generate a meaningful visitation lift by bringing back one of its most recognizable promotions.
But Endless Shrimp can only do so much – and the pressures facing the chain, from elevated seafood costs to a burdensome lease portfolio, will remain even after the promotion inevitably ends. As the company continues to rightsize and improve profitability, the key question is whether its investments in menu innovation and customer experience will be enough to garner lasting customer loyalty. Will Endless Shrimp have a better ending this time around?
Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
.avif)
Anchored Ep 7: The Data-Driven Customer Era
Zora Sentat has spent her career at the intersection of data, marketing, and commerce. As Chief Commercial Officer at cubeiQ, she's seen how businesses are – and aren't – making the most of what they know about their customers.
In the latest episode of Anchored, Zora joined Ethan Chernofsky to discuss the state of the data landscape, where retail media is falling short, and why human expertise still matters in an increasingly automated world.
Here are 5 key takeaways from the conversation:
Memorial Day weekend is the unofficial start of summer – and this year it arrived amid mounting cost pressures. Gas prices were at their highest Memorial Day level since 2022, while domestic airfare had risen more than 20% year over year – although travelers who booked early were often able to secure better deals.
That makes the holiday weekend a useful bellwether for the summer season ahead. Which corners of the travel economy are thriving, and where are consumers pulling back as budgets tighten? We dove into the data to find out.
Visits to gas stations and convenience stores - a reasonable proxy for how much Americans are driving – fell 7.0% YoY over the four-day Memorial Day weekend, measured from Friday through Monday. The decline pushed visits below their 2021 level for the first time since the pandemic-era baseline.
The drop is even more striking when viewed against the holiday's typical pattern. Over the past four years, Memorial Day weekend has consistently generated roughly 2% to 3% more traffic than a typical weekend, measured against the average of the preceding six Friday-to-Monday periods. This year, that premium disappeared. Instead, visits ran 3.1% below the recent norm, marking the first time in at least four years that the unofficial start of summer drew fewer fuel-and-snack stops than an ordinary weekend.
This suggests that forecasts of record-setting Memorial Day travel may have overstated the strength of road-trip demand as fuel costs surged. But another possible explanation is that Americans still traveled, just not as far – an interpretation supported by the decline in travel distances across most hotel tiers (see below). Surging fuel costs may also have nudged some travelers who had planned to drive toward air travel instead.
Nationwide Gas Station Visits, Memorial Day Weekend 2026 (Fri–Mon)
Memorial Day weekend failed to lift gas-station traffic, with visits falling below even 2021’s pandemic-era levels.
And indeed, airport visits by domestic travelers in the lead up to the holiday were comparatively resilient, slipping just 0.5% YoY on the Thursday and Friday before Memorial Day.
Compared to airports' prior six-week baseline, demand heading into the holiday weekend actually increased. Airport visits during the Thursday-Friday travel rush ran 9.7% above the average of the previous six weeks, up from 8.2% in 2025 and 7.1% in 2024. That resilience was likely driven, at least in part, by travelers who secured lower fares by booking well in advance. And because air travelers tend to skew more affluent than road trippers, those who did book later may have been more willing to absorb higher travel costs despite the sticker shock.
Major Airport Visits During Lead-Up to Memorial Day Weekend (Thu–Fri)
Although airport traffic remained flat YoY, the pre-holiday surge was more pronounced against a backdrop of softer recent demand, with visits running 9.7% above the prior six Thursday–Friday average.
Hotels, meanwhile, saw declines in domestic traveler visitation across all tiers as some travelers likely looked for ways to reduce lodging costs, whether by staying with friends and family, choosing lower-cost accommodations, or taking shorter trips.
But the pullback was far from uniform. Economy hotels took the hardest hit, with visits down 7.2% YoY – the steepest decline of any segment. Midscale, upper-midscale, and upscale properties landed in the middle, posting declines between 4.3% and 5.0%. At the top end of the market, the softness was more limited: Upper-upscale hotels slipped just 2.2%, while luxury hotels declined 2.7%.
The same K-shaped pattern showed up in how far guests were willing to travel. The share of hotel visitors coming from more than 100 miles away declined across nearly every tier – most sharply at the lower end of the market. Only luxury hotels saw their share of long-distance guests actually increase by 1.2 percentage points – showing that affluent domestic travelers were still traveling the distance.
Memorial Day Weekend (Fri–Mon): May 22–25 ’26 vs. May 23–26 ’25, U.S.
Hotel Visits, Year-over-Year Change
Visits slipped across every hotel class, but the high end held up best – and luxury was the only segment to draw a larger share of guests from 100+ miles away.
Percentage Point Change* in Share of Visitors From 100+ Miles Away, 2026 vs. 2025
*A percentage-point change is the difference between the two years’ shares – e.g., Luxury rising from 51.3% to 52.5% is a 1.2-point gain.
The unofficial start of summer revealed a widening split in how Americans allocate their travel spending. Driving-related stops and budget hotels bore the brunt of the pullback, while air travel and higher-end lodging continued to hold steady.
Whether this divide narrows or widens will depend largely on the path of gas prices and consumer confidence. As fuel costs ease, will budget-conscious travelers return to the road in greater numbers? Will air travel rebound, and will hotel visitation follow?
For more data-driven consumer and travel insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Grocery chains in the United States are increasingly investing in on-site healthcare clinics, transforming their stores into hubs for both food and wellness. While grocery stores have long featured pharmacies and some basic healthcare services like vaccinations, recent years have seen a shift towards more extensive healthcare offerings.
Today, many grocery stores offer a range of services – from primary and urgent care to dental and mental health care. In addition to providing an important community service, grocery-anchored healthcare clinics can boost foot traffic at chains, help health providers reach more patients, and allow shoppers to manage their health and home needs in one convenient trip.
This white paper examines the impact these in-store clinics have on grocery chain visitation patterns and trade area characteristics. Are shoppers more or less likely to make repeat visits to grocery stores with healthcare services? And how does the addition of a clinic affect the demographic profile of a grocery store’s captured market? The report examines these questions and more, offering insights for stakeholders across the grocery and healthcare industries.
Analyzing foot traffic to grocery stores with and without in-store clinics shows the positive impact of these services: Across chains, locations with on-site healthcare offerings drew more visits in H1 2024 than their chain-wide averages.
The Kroger Co., which operates numerous regional banners as well as its own eponymous chain, has been a leader in in-store healthcare services since the early aughts. The company introduced its in-store medical center, The Little Clinic in 2003 – and today operates over 225 Little Clinic locations across its Kroger banner, as well as regional chains Dillons, Jay C Food Stores, Fry’s, and King Soopers.
And in H1 2024, the eight Dillons locations with clinics saw, on average, 93.0% more visits per location than the chain’s banner-wide average. Jay C, which offers two in-store clinics, also saw visits to these venues outpace the H1 2024 banner-wide average by 92.9%. For both chains, relatively small overall footprints may contribute to their outsize visit differences: Indiana-focused Jay C operates just 22 locations, all in the Hoosier State, while Kansas-based Dillons has some 64 locations.
But similar patterns, if somewhat less pronounced, could be observed at Kroger (43.0%), Fry’s (19.2%), and King Soopers (16.5%) – as well as at H-E-B (14.5%), which boasts its own expanding network of in-store clinics.
Analyzing the trade areas of grocery stores with healthcare clinics shows that these services tend to draw more affluent visitors from within the stores’ trade areas.
For some chains, including King Soopers, H-E-B, and Jay C, the clinics are positioned to begin with in areas serving higher-income communities. The median household income (HHI) of King Soopers’ in-store clinic’s potential markets, for example, came in at $92.3K in H1 2024 – significantly above the chain’s overall potential market median HHI of $88.1K. Similarly, the potential markets of H-E-B and Jay C Food Stores with clinics had higher median HHIs than the chains’ overall averages.
And for all three chains, stores with clinics tended to attract visitors from captured markets with even higher median HHIs – showing that within these affluent communities, it is the more well-to-do customers that tend to frequent these venues. (A chain or store’s potential market is obtained by weighting each CBG in its trade area according to the size of the population – thus reflecting the general composition of the community it serves. A chain or store’s captured market, on the other hand, is obtained by weighting each CBG according to its share of visits to the business in question – and thus represents the population that actually visits it in practice.)
Other brands, including Fry’s, Kroger, and Dillons, have positioned clinics in stores with potential market median HHIs slightly below chain-wide averages. But within these markets, too, it is the more affluent consumers that are visiting these stores, pushing up the median HHI of their captured markets.
These patterns highlight that, for now, grocery store clinics tend to attract consumers on the upper ends of local income spectrums. This information can be utilized by healthcare professionals and grocery store owners to pinpoint neighborhoods that may be open to grocery-anchored clinics, or to take steps to increase penetration in other areas.
Supermarket giant Kroger is a major player in the world of grocery-anchored healthcare, offering visitors access to pharmacies, clinics, and telehealth options via its grocery stores. What impact has the company’s embrace of healthcare had on visits and loyalty?
An analysis of household compositions across the potential and captured markets of Kroger-owned stores with and without Little Clinic offerings suggests that families with children are extremely receptive to these services.
In H1 2024, Kroger, King Soopers, Fry’s, Jay C, and Dillons all featured captured markets with higher shares of STI: PopStats’ “Households With Children” segment than their potential ones – highlighting the chains’ appeal for families. But the share of parental households in those stores with Little Clinics jumped significantly higher for all five banners.
The share of families with children in King Soopers’ overall captured market stood at 28.3% in H1 2024, higher than the 27.2% in its potential one. But the households with children in the captured markets of King Soopers locations with Little Clinics was significantly higher – 30.6% – and similar patterns emerged at Jay C, Dillons, Kroger, and Fry’s.
This special draw is likely linked to the clinics' focus on family health services like physicals, nutrition plans, and vaccines. The convenience of being able to take care of healthcare, grocery shopping, and pharmacy needs all in one go makes these stores particularly attractive to parents. And this jump in foot traffic shows the strategic advantage of incorporating healthcare services into the retail environment.
Providing essential healthcare services at the supermarket can establish a grocery chain as a crucial part of a shopper's daily life, enhancing visitor loyalty, and helping nurture long-term customer relationships. Indeed, in-store clinics offer a unique opportunity for grocery providers to connect with customers on a level that extends beyond the transactional.
An analysis of several Kroger-branded locations in the Cincinnati metro area showcases the profound impact in-store clinics can have on customer loyalty. In H1 2024, stores with Little Clinics had significantly higher shares of repeat visitors – defined as those making six or more stops at the store during the analyzed period – than those without.
For instance, 36.4% of visitors to a Kroger Marketplace store with an in-store clinic in Harrison, Ohio, frequented the location at least six times during the first half of 2024. But over the same period, only 29.0% of visitors stopped by at least six times to a nearby Kroger location in Cleves, Ohio – just ten miles away. Similarly, 30.7% of visitors to the Beechmont Ave. Kroger Food & Drug location with a clinic visited at least six times in H1 2024, compared to 23.0% for the nearby Ohio Pike Kroger store.
This trend was consistent across the analyzed locations, with those offering in-store clinics attracting significantly higher shares of loyal visitors. These metrics support the value of offering additional services as a draw for frequent visitors, while also providing the clinics themselves with the visitor volume needed to operate profitably.
Texan grocery chain H-E-B is beloved across the state – and though the chain isn’t new to the healthcare scene, it has been doubling down on wellness. In 2022, H-E-B launched H-E-B Wellness, a healthcare platform that offers patrons a variety of medical services, including – as of today – some 12 primary care clinics, many of them inside stores.
H-E-B stores with primary care clinics are helping to cement the grocer’s role as a convenient one-stop for local residents – allowing them to drop in to a nearby location for both daily grocery needs and wellness care.
H-E-B has always placed a premium on community, stepping up to help local residents in times of need. And though the chain as a whole draws an overwhelming majority of its visitors from nearby areas, those with clinics do so even more effectively. In H1 2024, some 83.6% of visitors to H-E-B came from less than 10 miles away. But for locations with primary care clinics, this share increased to 88.0%.
This suggests that wellness services are particularly appealing to nearby residents, strengthening H-E-B’s connection with local consumers even further. And for a grocery store centered on community engagement, the integration of health services into its offerings is proving to be a winning strategy.
H-E-B has been steadily expanding its primary care offerings since it launched the Wellness concept, adding two primary clinics at locations in Cypress, TX and Katy, TX in June 2023. Following the opening of these clinics – which operate Mondays through Fridays – both locations saw marked increases in the share of “Urban Cliff Dwellers” in their weekday captured markets. This STI: Landscape segment group encompasses families both with and without children, earning modest incomes and enjoying middle-class pleasantries.
Between June 2022 - May 2023, the share of “Urban Cliff Dwellers” in the weekday captured markets of the Cypress and Katy locations stood at 9.5% and 7.2%, respectively. But once the stores had clinics in place, those numbers jumped to 12.4% and 11.0%, respectively.
This increase in the stores’ reach among “Urban Cliff Dwellers” immediately following the clinics’ openings suggests that in addition to more affluent consumers, middle-class families also harbor considerable interest in these services. As more retailers continue making inroads into the healthcare sector, they may find similar success in attracting diverse groups of convenience-seeking shoppers.
As grocery stores lean into healthcare, they are transforming into multifaceted hubs that offer both essential health services and everyday shopping needs. Retailers like Kroger and H-E-B are reaping the benefits of boosted foot traffic, higher-income visitors, and strengthened community ties – while offering their shoppers convenience that helps streamline their daily routines.
Walmart, Target, and Costco are three of the most popular retailers in the country, drawing millions of shoppers through their doors each day. Each of these retail giants boasts distinct strengths and strategies that cater to their unique customer bases, allowing them to thrive in a highly competitive market.
This white paper takes a closer look at some of the factors that are helping the three chains flourish. How does Walmart’s positioning as a family-friendly retailer help it drive visits in its more competitive markets? How can Target leverage its reach to drive more loyal visits? And what does the increase in young shoppers frequenting membership warehouse clubs mean for Costco?
We dove into the location analytics to explore these questions further.
Examining monthly visitation patterns for the three retail giants shows Costco’s wholesale club model leading the way with consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit growth – ranging from 6.1% in stormy January 2024 to 13.3% in June. Family favorite Walmart followed closely behind, seeing YoY foot traffic growth during all but two months, when visits briefly trailed slightly behind 2023 levels before rebounding.
Target, meanwhile, had a slower start to the year, with visits trending below 2023 levels for most of January to April. Over this same period (the three months ending May 2024), Target reported a 3.7% decline in YoY comparable sales. But since then, things have begun to turn around for the chain, with YoY visits rising in May (2.5%), June (8.9%), and July (4.7%). This renewed visit growth into the second half of the year bodes well for the superstore – and the ongoing back-to-school season may well push visits up further as the summer winds down.
For all three chains, Q2 2024’s visit success has likely been bolstered in part by summer deals and intensifying price wars – as the retailers slash prices to woo inflation-weary consumers back to the store.
Over the past few years, consumer behaviors have been changing rapidly in response to shifting economic conditions. This next section explores some of these changes at Walmart, Target, and Costco, to better understand what may be driving these shifts.
One way that consumers have traditionally responded to inflation and other headwinds has been through the adoption of mission-driven shopping – making fewer, but longer, trips to retailers, so that every visit counts. Superstores and wholesale clubs, which offer one-stop shopping experiences, have long been prime destinations for these extended shopping trips. And even during periods when visits have lagged, these retailers have often benefited from extended dwell times – leading to bigger basket sizes.
A look at changes in average dwell times at Walmart and Target suggests that as YoY visits have picked up, dwell times have come down – perhaps reflecting a normalization of consumers’ shopping patterns. With inflation stabilizing and gas prices lower than they were in 2022 and 2023, customers may feel less pressure to consolidate shopping trips than they have in recent years.
In contrast, Costco’s comparatively long dwell times have remained stable over the past several years. The warehouse club’s bulk offerings, plentiful free samples, and inexpensive food court encourage shoppers to spend more time browsing the aisles than they would at other retailers. And even if mission-driven shopping continues to subside, Costco customers will likely keep on making extra-long shopping trips.
While inflation is cooling faster than expected, prices remain high, and new players are stepping into the retail space occupied by Walmart, Target, and Costco – especially dollar stores. Though higher-income customers increasingly rely on the three retail giants for many of their purchases, customers of more modest means are often drawn to the rock-bottom prices offered at dollar stores.
And analyzing the cross-shopping patterns of visitors to Walmart, Target, and Costco shows that growing shares of visitors to the three behemoths also visit Dollar Tree on a regular basis. In Q2 2019, the share of visitors to Walmart, Target, and Costco who frequented Dollar Tree at least three times ranged between 9.8% and 13.7%. But by Q2 2024, that share rose to 16.7%-21.6%.
Dollar Tree is leaning into this increased interest among superstore shoppers. Over the past year, Dollar Tree added some 350 Dollar Tree locations, even as it shuttered nearly 400 Family Dollar stores. And the chain recently acquired the leases of some 170 99 Cents Only Stores – offering Dollar Tree access to a customer base accustomed to buying everything from groceries to household goods. As Dollar Tree continues to grow its footprint and expand its food offerings, the chain will be better positioned than ever to provide a real challenge to Walmart, Target, and Costco.
Still, the three retail giants each have unique offerings that distinguish them from dollar stores. This next section examines what sets Walmart, Target, and Costco apart – and how they can continue to strengthen their competitive edge.
With competition on the rise, Walmart, Target, and Costco must display agility in navigating an ever-evolving market landscape. This section dives into the data for each chain’s more successful metro areas to see what factors are helping them outperform nationwide averages – and what metrics the retailers can harness to try to replicate these results nationwide.
Target recently expanded its Target Circle Rewards program, rolling out three new tiers for its 100 million members. And this focus on loyalty has proven successful for the chain. Demographic and visitation data reveal a strong correlation between the median household incomes (HHIs) of Target locations’ captured markets across CBSAs (core-based statistical areas), and their share of loyal visitors in Q2 2024: CBSAs where Target locations’ captured markets had higher median HHIs also tended to draw more repeat monthly visitors.
Target’s captured markets in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, LA CBSA, for example, featured a median HHI of $89.8K in Q2 2024 – and 48.0% of the chain’s LA visitors frequented a Target at least twice a month during the quarter. Target stores in the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI CBSA, where the chain’s captured markets had a median HHI of $88.7K in Q2 2024, also had a loyalty rate of 48.0%.
Target generally attracts a more affluent audience than Walmart. And even as the superstore slashes prices to attract more price-conscious consumers, the retailer is also taking steps likely to enhance its popularity among higher-income households. In April 2024, Target debuted a paid membership tier within its loyalty program offering perks like same-day delivery for a fee. Maintaining and expanding these premium offerings will be key for Target as it seeks to attract more affluent customers and replicate its high-performing results in CBSAs nationwide.
The persistent inflation of the past few years, while challenging for some retailers, has also created new opportunities – particularly for wholesalers. Membership warehouse clubs, including Costco, are gaining popularity among younger shoppers, a cohort often looking for new ways to stretch their more limited budgets. An October 2023 survey revealed that nearly 15% of respondents aged 18 to 24 and 17% of those aged 25 to 30 shop at Costco.
A closer look at some of Costco’s best-performing CBSAs for YoY visit-per-location growth highlights the significance of these younger shoppers: In H1 2024, the company’s YoY visit-per-location growth was strongest in areas with higher-than-average shares of young urban singles.
For example, the San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA CBSA experienced visit-per-location growth of 10.4% YoY in H1 2024, while the nationwide average stood at 7.9%. And the CBSA’s share of Young Urban Singles, defined by the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset as “singles starting their careers in trade and service jobs,” was 12.1%, well above Costco’s nationwide average of 7.3%.
Walmart is a one-stop shop for everything from affordable groceries to clothing to home furnishings, making it especially popular among families. The retailer actively courts this segment with baby offerings designed to meet the needs of both kids and parents, virtual offerings in the metaverse, and collectible toys.
And visitation data reveals a connection between the extent of different Walmart locations’ YoY visit growth and the share of households with children in their captured markets.
In H1 2024, nationwide visits to Walmart increased by 4.1% YoY, while the share of households with children in the chain’s overall captured market hovered just under the nationwide baseline. But in some CBSAs where Walmart outpaced this nationwide growth, the retail giant also proved especially adept at attracting parental households – outpacing relevant statewide baselines.
In Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA, for example, Walmart experienced 5.0% YoY visit growth in H1 2024 – while the share of households with children in the chain’s local captured market stood 7% above the Massachusetts state average. And in Grand Rapids-Kentwood, MI, where Walmart’s share of parental households outpaced the Minnesota state average by an even wider 15% margin, the retailer saw impressive 7.3% YoY visit growth. This pattern repeated itself in other metro areas, suggesting that there may be a correlation between local Walmart locations’ visit growth and their relative ability to draw households with children.
Walmart can continue solidifying its market position by leaning into its family-oriented offerings and expanding its footprint in regions with growing populations of young families.
Walmart, Target, and Costco all experienced YoY visit growth in the final months of H1 2024, with Costco leading the way. And though the three chains still face considerable challenges, each one brings unique strengths to the table. By continuously innovating and responding to changing market conditions, Walmart, Target, and Costco can not only overcome obstacles but also leverage them to reinforce their market positions and drive continued growth.
The first Lollapalooza – a four-day music festival – took place in 1991. Chicago’s Grant Park became the event’s permanent home (at least in the United States) in 2005, drawing thousands of revelers and music fans to the park each year.
This year, the festival once again demonstrated its powerful impact on the city. On August 1st, 2024, visits to Grant Park surged by 1,313.2% relative to the YTD daily average, as crowds converged on the park to see Chappell Roan’s much-anticipated performance. And during the first three days of the event, the event drew significantly more foot traffic than in 2023 – with visits up 18.9% to 35.9% compared to the first three days of last year’s festival (August 3rd to 5th, 2023).
Lollapalooza led to a dramatic spike in visits to Grant Park – and it also attracted a different type of visitor compared to the rest of the year.
Analyzing Grant Park’s captured market with Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive dataset reveals that Lollapalooza attendees are more likely to belong to the “Young Professionals” and “Ultra Wealthy Families” segment groups than the typical Grant Park visitor.
By contrast, the “Near-Urban Diverse Families” segment group, comprising middle-class diverse families living in or near cities, made up only 6.5% of visitors during the festival, compared to 12.0% during the rest of the year.
Additionally, visitors during Lollapalooza came from areas with higher HHIs than both the nationwide baseline of $76.1K and the average for park visitors throughout the year. Understanding the demographic profile of visitors to the park during Lollapalooza can help planners and city officials tailor future events to these segment groups – or look for ways to make the festival accessible to a wider range of music lovers.
Lollapalooza’s impact on Chicago extended beyond the boundaries of Grant Park, with nearby hotels seeing remarkable surges in foot traffic. The Congress Plaza Hotel on South Michigan Avenue witnessed a staggering 249.1% rise in visits during the week of July 29, 2024, compared to the YTD visit average. And Travelodge on East Harrison Street saw an impressive 181.8% increase. These spikes reflect the festival’s draw not just for locals but for out-of-town visitors who fill hotels across the city.
The North Michigan Avenue retail corridor also enjoyed a significant increase in foot traffic during the festival, with visits on Thursday, August 1st 56.0% higher than the YTD Thursday visit average. On Friday, August 2nd, visits to the corridor were 55.7% higher than the Friday visit average. These numbers highlight Lollapalooza’s role in driving economic activity across Chicago, as festival-goers venture beyond the park to explore the city’s vibrant retail and hospitality offerings.
City parks often serve as community hubs, and Flushing Meadows Corona Park in Queens, NY, has been a major gathering point for New Yorkers. The park hosted one of New York’s most beloved summer concerts – Governors Ball – which moved from Governors Island to Flushing Meadows in 2023.
During the festival (June 9th -11th, 2024), musicians like Post Malone and The Killers drew massive crowds to the park, with visits soaring to the highest levels seen all year. On June 9th, the opening day of the festival, foot traffic in the park was up 214.8% compared to the YTD daily average, and at its height, on June 8th, the festival drew 392.7% more visits than the YTD average.
The park also hosted other big events this summer – a July 21st set by DMC helped boost visits to 185.1% above the YTD average. And the Hong Kong Dragon Boat Festival on August 3rd and 4th led to major visit boosts of 221.4% and 51.6%, respectively.
These events not only draw large crowds, but also highlight the park’s role as a space where cultural and civic life can find expression, flourish, and contribute to the health of local communities.
Analyzing changes in Flushing Meadows Corona Park’s trade area size offers insight into how far people are willing to travel for these events. During Governors Ball, for example, the park’s trade area ballooned to 254.5 square miles, showing the festival's wide appeal. On July 20th, by contrast, when the park hosted several local bands and DJs, the trade area was a much more modest 57.0 square miles.
Summer events drive community engagement, economic activity, and civic pride. Cities that invest in their parks and event hubs, fostering lively and inclusive spaces, can create lasting value for both residents and visitors, enriching the cultural and social life of urban areas.
For more data-driven civic stories, visit Placer.ai.
