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Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI) latest foot traffic provides an under-the-hood look at how the dining operator is navigating shifting consumer behavior, portfolio dynamics, and expansion in a challenging environment. In its most recent quarterly earnings, management reported sales of $2.9 billion, up 6% year over year, and adjusted EPS of $2.03, topping analyst expectations.
Following several months of slower traffic, Q2 2025 visits to all Darden concepts rose 2.4% YoY, with same-store visits climbing 1.1%. Monthly visit data also showed consistent upward growth, with strong gains in May (4.6%) and August (4.3%). And even slight visit dips in June were quickly followed by renewed growth, underscoring the company's resilience.
Some of this growth may be tied to Darden’s steady unit expansion, including its recent acquisition of Tex-Mex chain Chuy’s. But the increase in same-store visits shows that growth isn't just from new locations – existing restaurants are also attracting more diners, underscoring the strength and resilience of the company's portfolio.
Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse are by far the two largest chains in Darden’s portfolio, and both enjoyed solid visit growth over the period, as shown in the chart below. The standout, however, was Yard House, which posted a 6.2% increase in overall visits alongside a 4.3% gain in same-store visits in Q2 2025.
Yard House attracts a more affluent customer base with a trade area median household income of $82.6K compared to $69.0K to $70.1K for LongHorn and Olive Garden, respectively. This higher income profile may be making Yard House visitors less vulnerable to current consumer headwinds and helping boost the chain's traffic. Yet the continued strength of Olive Garden and LongHorn – despite their lower-income trade areas – underscores the resilience of these brands and shows how their broad appeal allows them to thrive even in more cost-sensitive markets.
Meanwhile, Cheddar’s Scratch Kitchen, Darden’s third-largest concept, maintained visits largely in line with 2024 levels, showing stability but not the same growth momentum as other Darden brands. As the chain with the lowest-income customer base – Cheddar's draws from trade areas with a median household income of just $64.0K – its softer trajectory likely reflects greater budget constraints among its diners. Still, its steadiness underscores Darden’s success in cultivating concepts that resonate across the income spectrum: Yard House is thriving with more affluent guests, Olive Garden and LongHorn are performing strongly among middle-income households, and Cheddar’s continues to hold its ground with more cost-sensitive customers. Together, these dynamics show how Darden’s brands remain relevant to a broad swath of diners even in a challenging economic climate.
More than half (51.1%) of all Darden visits in H1 2025 went to Olive Garden, making it the company's top traffic driver. But the company is still expanding its existing brands, with LongHorn and Olive Garden leading new location openings.
The map below highlights the brand – Olive Garden or LongHorn – that experienced the greatest YoY visit growth in each state in Q2 2025. This map reveals that LongHorn beat out Olive Garden in terms of YoY growth on most of the East Coast as well as in California and parts of the Midwest and Southeast – suggesting that the brand is capturing share in densely populated coastal markets. So while Olive Garden continues to anchor the business with sheer volume, LongHorn seems to be driving much of the incremental growth, giving Darden two powerful engines for expanding and solidifying its hold on the casual dining segment across the country.
Darden's recent traffic data reveal resilience in the face of a wider slow down in consumer dining trends, powered by a mix of steady performance and faster growth from its four largest brands. Continued unit expansion, alongside the recent addition of Chuy’s, should further broaden its reach while diversifying its customer base.
For up-to-date consumer dining trends, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more
U.S. consumer activity looked relatively stable in the first half of 2025, with year-over-year (YoY) retail and dining traffic (shown in the chart below) staying mostly positive or flat through May – aside from February, when extreme cold and leap year comparisons drove declines.
But momentum shifted in June, when both categories slipped into negative territory, and the softness persisted in July before worsening in August. The late-summer weakness suggests that what began as a temporary cooling may now be evolving into a broader consumer slowdown.
Looking at state-level data reveals that the pullback is not isolated to a few regions. Western states such as Idaho and Utah – where H1 2025 dining traffic rose 2.1% and 2.4% YoY, respectively – flattened out, with visits in July and August down 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively. And states that had already experienced flat visits or dining softness in H1 2025 saw their visit gaps grow further: YoY dining traffic in New York State declined from -1.2% to -2.3%, while California saw its visits swing from +0.3% in H1 2025 to -2.0% in July and August 2025. Only in Vermont and Rhode Island did YoY dining visits actually increase over the summer.
Statewide retail traffic trends also point to broad-based declines in consumer activity, as visits to retail chains nationwide fell compared to July-August 2024 – even in regions such as the Pacific Northwest and the Southwest that had experienced high consumer resilience in H1 2025. Vermont, joined this time by Delaware, once again stood out as an outlier.
A key driver of the slowdown is the widening gap between higher- and lower-income households. While wealthier consumers have continued to prop up overall spending, middle- and lower-income groups are scaling back. Even among high earners, international summer travel may have drawn dollars away from U.S. retail and dining, softening domestic foot traffic during the analyzed period. This dynamic highlights the risks of relying too heavily on affluent households to sustain consumer activity.
Tariffs have added another layer of complexity. Earlier in the year, many consumers rushed to make purchases ahead of anticipated price hikes. Now, the lingering financial impact of those spring splurges may still be weighing on budgets.
Looking ahead to the holiday season, discretionary fatigue looms large. Spending is expected to slow, led by a sharper cutback from Gen Z. Budget-conscious households may already be tightening their belts in preparation for holiday expenses, further dampening retail and dining performance.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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With summer just behind us, we dove into the data to see how office visitation fared in August 2025. Did July’s impressive recovery momentum hold, or did seasonal factors slow the pace?
Visits to the Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index registered a 34.3% decline in August 2025 compared to the same period in 2019 – a wider gap than that seen in August 2023, and an even more notable retreat from July's encouraging 21.8% deficit.
However, this apparent setback is largely due to calendar differences: August 2025 had only 21 working days, compared to 22 in both August 2024 and 2019, and 23 in August 2023. When normalized for average visits per workday, August 2025 actually outperformed August 2023.
Seasonal dynamics also likely played a crucial role. August represents peak vacation season, and just as employees often embrace remote work on Fridays to extend weekends, they likely embrace similar flexibility during the peak summer travel season. Organizations may also relax in-office requirements when substantial portions of their workforce are taking time off.
So rather than signaling a genuine return-to-office (RTO) reversal, August's softer performance likely reflects the intersection of compressed work calendars and seasonal vacation patterns, with the underlying recovery trajectory remaining fundamentally intact.
The August effect impacted major markets nationwide, including New York and Miami – both of which achieved full recovery in July yet posted year-over-six-year gaps in excess of 10.0% last month. But while gaps widened across most markets, San Francisco once again avoided last place, ranking ahead of Chicago in post-pandemic office recovery metrics. Despite still facing below-average office attendance relative to 2019 levels, the Bay Area market’s renewed momentum – bolstered by increased AI-sector leasing activity – continues drawing employees back to offices even amid summer distractions.
San Francisco also ranked among August's year-over-year (YoY) office visit recovery leaders, providing further evidence of the city’s robust recovery momentum. But it was Chicago that claimed the top spot with a 12.5% year-over-year (YoY) gain – encouraging progress for the Windy City, though it remains to be seen whether this signals the beginning of a lasting turnaround.
Meanwhile, Boston also exceeded the nationwide year-over-year average of 2.9% with a 3.1% increase, while Washington, D.C. lagged behind with a YoY decline of 3.9%.
As we noted in July, the office recovery path is anything but linear. Months of significant progress are often followed by more sluggish periods – and August 2025 exemplifies how seasonality and calendar differences can obscure underlying trends.
Will September 2025 set a new RTO record as kids return to school and employees refocus?
Follow Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more
Following modest gains to the Placer.ai Industrial Index in June and July, foot traffic to U.S. manufacturing facilities fell 5.6% year over year in August 2025. So even as order books improved in July, operators seem to have scaled back in-plant activity and nonessential visits to navigate cost and policy uncertainty.
Several national and regional gauges underscore the divergence in August. S&P Global’s Manufacturing PMI jumped to 53.0, its highest since May 2022, as firms built inventory amid worries over prices and supply constraints. Meanwhile, ISM's Production Index fell to 47.8% – 3.6 percentage points lower than July's 51.4% – pointing to weaker factory output, and demand for industrial space has fallen recently for the first time in 15 years. The Philadelphia Fed’s August 2025 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey also showed a decline in general activity as new orders dipped back into negative territory.
Together, these mixed signals mirror Placer.ai's foot-traffic trends: Underlying demand is stabilizing, but managers remain cautious with on-site labor and vendor engagement, with macro uncertainty continuing to translate into swings in on-the-ground activity. Looking ahead, September will reveal whether greater policy clarity and easing cost pressures can help stabilize factory visits after a turbulent summer.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
The same macroeconomic forces pressuring other retail sectors are fueling demand for auto parts: With the U.S. light vehicle fleet now averaging 12.8 years – up from 11.6 in 2019 – and many households delaying new car purchases, aftermarket maintenance has become more essential than ever. And while discretionary upgrades may be postponed, core failure and replacement parts continue to see robust demand. Though tariff-related uncertainty continues to loom, leading retailers report they have managed the impact effectively so far.
Against this backdrop, we dove into the data to check in with AutoZone, O’Reilly Auto Parts, and Advance Auto Parts. How did they fare in Q2 2025? And what awaits them the rest of the year?
AutoZone, the sector's largest chain, continues to expand while growing its customer base. Over the past six years, AutoZone has steadily increased its store count, leaning into growing demand without diluting location-level traffic. Year over year (YoY) too, the chain saw significant visit growth between March and May 2025 – and while June showed some softening, July and August visits remained essentially flat versus 2024, demonstrating stability during the chain’s busy summer maintenance season.
This robust foot traffic performance aligns with the company's recent financials. In its last reporting period (ending May 10, 2025), AutoZone posted a solid 5.0% year-over-year increase in U.S. comparable sales. Commercial performance was especially strong – Do-It-For-Me (DIFM) sales jumped 10.7%, while DIY sales grew 3.0% YoY. And management emphasized that tariff-related impacts have been minimal so far.
O'Reilly Auto Parts is also executing on an impressive expansion strategy. In Q2 2025, overall visits to O’Reilly climbed 4.6% YoY, with same store visits up 3.0%. Compared to 2019, both total and per-location foot traffic has steadily increased, demonstrating the company’s success in combining aggressive growth with operational efficiency.
And in its last reporting quarter, the company posted a 4.1% increase in comparable store sales, with robust performance across both DIY and professional channels. Total sales revenue reached a record $4.53 billion – a 6.0% increase versus last year. The company also noted a modest pricing lift tied to tariffs but emphasized that overall demand trends remain strong.
Advance Auto Parts, for its part, is restructuring to compete more effectively. During the quarter ending July 12th, 2025, net sales fell 7.7% year-over-year, partly due to planned store closures. Still, signs of stabilization are emerging: Comparable-store sales edged up 0.1%, indicating that core demand remains healthy.
And recent foot traffic provides further evidence that the company’s rightsizing strategy is beginning to bear fruit. Same-store traffic declines were narrower than the chain’s overall visit gap – just -1.5% YoY in July and -2.4% in August – suggesting that consolidation is helping shore up performance at remaining locations. At the same time, Advance is modernizing its supply chain to accelerate deliveries and strengthen its DIFM offerings – which, as with its peers, serves as a critical growth anchor for the chain. While it remains to be seen if these moves will drive sustained recovery amid shifting tariff pressures, Advance has restored profitability while implementing its strategic turnaround.
The auto parts sector remains robust, driven by an aging vehicle fleet and delayed new car purchases. And though tariff uncertainty remains, AutoZone, O’Reilly, and Advance are thus far navigating the new cost environment without major disruption. As 2025 unfolds, the second half of the year will show whether higher new-car prices push more consumers into aftermarket maintenance – and how customers, particularly in the DIY segment, respond if retailers need to pass through additional price increases.
For the most up-to-date retail visit data, check out Placer.ai's free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more
This year has posed challenges for limited-service dining chains as inflation and higher prices continued to weigh on consumer traffic. We analyzed visitation trends in 2025 so far across major segments to better understand which categories are holding up – and which may need to adjust strategies.
This year brought significant challenges for the limited-service dining industry, as persistent price increases kept many would-be diners at home. Even industry giants like McDonald’s reported declines in same-store sales as lower- and middle-income consumers pulled back spending. Yet several categories, including the ever-impressive chicken segment, managed to buck the trend.
The chart below highlights the differences in YoY foot traffic for major limited service dining concepts in H1 2025. Pizza, burger, and sandwich chains experienced declines, while coffee, chicken, and Mexican-inspired concepts emerged as the growth drivers in terms of overall visit increases.
These segments were likely aided by aggressive unit expansion and consumer preferences shifting toward more affordable, customizable, and protein-forward options. Coffee continues to hold steady as a daily staple, while chicken and Mexican-inspired operators are capturing demand for protein-forward and customizable formats.
However, per-location data tempers this growth narrative. Visits per store declined across every major category – even those with overall visit increases – indicating that expansion may be outpacing underlying demand and pushing the segment toward potential oversaturation.
Recent summer data underscores the cautionary signals. Year-over-year traffic growth for coffee, chicken, and Mexican-inspired concepts was weaker in July than in the first half of the year. By August, declines had spread across nearly every category – with chicken chains in particular seeing a dip in traffic and an even steeper drop in average visits per location – leaving coffee as the only segment to sustain growth.
This broader slowdown in limited-service dining, combined with persistent economic uncertainty, suggests that consumers may be scaling back restaurant spending – even in categories traditionally viewed as more budget-friendly.
While 2025 has been marked by volatility, the underlying consumer appetite for convenient, protein-forward, and customizable dining is helping some limited-service segments stay ahead of the pack. Still, visit per location data suggests that expansion plans may need to be put on ice for the next few quarters.
Instead, operators that focus on menu innovation, building loyalty, and driving higher output per store stand to capture demand when economic pressures ease. As confidence rebounds, concepts that have expanded strategically may be especially well positioned to benefit from renewed consumer traffic.
For the most up-to-date dining data, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Grabbing a coffee or snack at a convenience store is a time-honored road trip tradition – but increasingly, Convenience Stores (C-Stores) have also emerged as places people go out of their way to visit.
Convenience stores have thrived in recent years, making inroads into the discretionary dining space and growing both their audiences and their sales. Between April 2023 and March 2024, C-Stores experienced consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit growth, generally outperforming Overall Retail. Unsurprisingly, C-Stores fell behind Overall Retail in November and December 2023, when holiday shoppers flocked to malls and superstores to buy gifts for loved ones. But in January 2024, the segment regained its lead, growing YoY visits even as Overall Retail languished in the face of an Arctic blast that had many consumers hunkering down at home.
C-Stores’ current strength is partially due to the significant innovation by leading players in the space: Chains like Casey’s, Maverik, Buc-ee’s, and Rutter’s are investing in both in their product offerings and in their physical venues to transform the humble C-Store from a stop along the way into a bona fide destination. Dive into the data to explore some of the key strategies helping C-Stores drive consumer engagement and stay ahead of the pack.
While chain expansion may explain some of the C-Store segment growth, a look at visit-per-location trends shows that demand is growing at the store level as well. Over the past year (April 2023 to March 2024), average visits per location on an industry-wide basis grew by 1.8%, compared to the year prior (April 2022 to 2023).
And within this growing segment, some brands are distinguishing themselves and outperforming category averages. Casey’s, for example, saw the average number of visits to each of its locations increase by 2.3% over the same time frame – while Maverik, Buc-ee’s and Rutter’s saw visits per location increase by 3.2%, 3.4% and 3.9%, respectively.
Each in its own way, Casey’s, Maverik, Buc-ee’s, and Rutter’s, are helping to transform C-Stores from pit stops where people can stretch their legs and grab a cup of coffee to destinations in and of themselves.
Midwestern gas and c-store chain Casey’s – famous for its breakfast pizza and other grab-and-go breakfast items – has emerged as a prime spot for fast food pizza lovers to grab a slice first thing in the morning. And Salt Lake City, Utah-based Maverik – which recently acquired Kum & Go and its 400-plus stores – is also establishing itself as a breakfast destination thanks to its specialty burritos and other chef-inspired creations.
Casey’s and Maverik’s popular breakfast options are likely helping the chains receive its larger-than-average share of morning visits: In Q1 2024, 16.3% of visits to Maverik and 17.5% of visits to Casey’s took place during the 7:00 AM - 10:00 AM daypart, compared to just 14.9% of visits to the wider C-Store category.
Psychographic data from the Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph dataset – which looks at the social media activity of a given audience – also suggests that Casey’s and Maverik’s have opened stores in locations that allow them to reach their target audience. Compared to the average consumer, residents of Casey’s potential market are 7% more likely to be “Fast Food Pizza Lovers” than both the average consumer and the average C-Store trade area resident. Residents of Maverik’s potential market are 16% more likely than the average consumer to be “Mexican Food Enthusiasts,” compared to residents of the average C-Store’s trade area who are only 1% more likely to fall into that category.
With both chains expanding, Casey’s and Maverik can hope to introduce new audiences to their unique breakfast options and solidify their hold over the morning daypart within the C-Store space over the next few years.
Everything is said to be bigger in the Lone Star State, and Texas-based convenience store chain Buc-ee’s – holder of the record for the worlds’ largest C-Store – is no exception. With a unique array of specialty food items and award-winning bathrooms, Buc-ee’s has emerged as a well-known tourist attraction. And the popular chain’s status as a visitor hotspot is reflected in two key metrics.
First, Buc-ee’s attracts a much greater share of weekend visits than other convenience store chains. In Q1 2024, 39.6% of visits to Buc-ee’s took place on the weekends, compared to just 28.3% for the wider C-Store industry. And second, Buc-ee’s captured markets feature higher-than-average shares of family-centric households – including those belonging to Experian: Mosaic’s Suburban Style, Flourishing Families, and Promising Families segments.
Rather than merely a place to stop on the way to work, Buc-ee’s has emerged as a favored destination for families and for people looking for something fun to do on their days off.
Buc-ee’s isn’t the only C-Store chain that believes bigger is better. Pennsylvania-based Rutter’s is increasing visits and customer dwell time by expanding its footprint – both in terms of store count and venue size. New stores will be 10,000 to 12,000 square feet – significantly larger than the industry average of around 3,100 square feet. And in more urban areas, where space is at a premium, the company is building upwards.
Rutter’s added a second floor to one of its existing locations in York, PA in December 2023. The remodel, which was met with enthusiasm by customers, provided additional seating for up to 30 diners, a beer cave, and an expanded wine selection. And in Q1 2024, the location experienced 15.6% YoY visit growth – compared to a chainwide average of 7.6%. Visitors to the newly remodeled Rutter’s also stayed significantly longer than they did pre-renovation. The share of extended visits to the store (longer than ten minutes) grew from 20.8% in Q1 2023 to 27.0% in Q1 2024 – likely from people browsing the chain’s selection of beers or grabbing a bite to eat.
Convenience stores are flourishing, transforming into some of the most exciting dining and tourist destinations in the country. Today, C-Store customers can expect to find brisket sandwiches, gourmet coffees, or craft beers, rather than the stale cups of coffee of old. And the data shows that customers are receptive to these innovations, helping drive the segment’s success.
The first quarter of 2024 was generally a good one for retailers. Though unusually cold and stormy weather left its mark on the sector’s January performance, February and March saw steady year-over-year (YoY) weekly visit growth that grew more robust as the quarter wore on.
March ended on a high note, with the week of March 25th – including Easter Sunday – seeing a 6.1% YoY visit boost, driven in part by increased retail activity in the run-up to the holiday. (Last year, Easter fell on April 9th, 2023, so the week of March 25th is being compared to a regular week.)
Though prices remain high and consumer confidence has yet to fully regain its footing, retail’s healthy Q1 showing may be a sign of good things to come in 2024.
Drilling down into the data for leading retail segments demonstrates the continued success of value-priced, essential, and wellness-related categories.
Discount & Dollar Stores led the pack with 11.2% YoY quarterly visit growth, followed by Grocery Stores, Fitness, and Superstores – all of which outperformed Overall Retail. Dining also enjoyed a YoY quarterly visit bump, despite the segment’s largely discretionary nature. And despite the high interest rates continuing to weigh on the housing and home renovation markets, Home Improvement & Furnishings maintained just a minor YoY visit gap.
Discount & Dollar Stores experienced strong YoY visit growth throughout most of Q1 – and as go-to destinations for groceries and other other essential goods, they held their own even during mid-January’s Arctic blast. In the last week of March, shoppers flocked to leading discount chains for everything from chocolate Easter bunnies to basket-making supplies – driving a remarkable 21.5% YoY visit spike.
Dollar General continued to dominate the Discount & Dollar Store space in Q1, with visits to its locations accounting for nearly half of the segment’s quarterly foot traffic (44.7%). Next in line was Dollar Tree, followed by Family Dollar and Five Below. Together, the four chains – all of which experienced positive YoY quarterly visit growth – drew a whopping 91.6% of quarterly visits to the category.
Rain or shine, people have to eat. And like Discount & Dollar Stores, traditional Grocery Stores were relatively busy through January as shoppers braved the storms to stock up on needed items. Momentum continued to build throughout the quarter, culminating in a 10.5% foot traffic increase in the week ending with Easter Sunday.
Like in other categories, it was budget-friendly Grocery banners that took the lead. No-frills Aldi drove a chain-wide 24.4% foot traffic increase in Q1, by expanding its fleet – while also growing the average number of visits per location. Other value-oriented chains, including Trader Joe’s and Food Lion, experienced significant foot traffic increases of their own. And though conventional grocery leaders like H-E-B, Kroger, and Albertsons saw smaller visit bumps, they too outperformed Q1 2023 by meaningful margins.
January is New Year’s resolution season – when people famously pick themselves up off the couch, dust off their trainers, and vow to go to the gym more often. And with wellness still top of mind for many consumers, the Fitness category enjoyed robust YoY visit growth throughout most of Q1 – despite lapping a strong Q1 2023.
Predictably, Fitness’s visit growth slowed during the last week of March, when many Americans likely indulged in Easter treats rather than work out. But given the category’s strength over the past several years, there is every reason to believe it will continue to flourish.
For Fitness chains, too, cost was key to success in Q1 – with value gyms experiencing the biggest visit jumps. EōS Fitness and Crunch Fitness, both of which offer low-cost membership options, saw their Q1 visits skyrocket 28.9% and 22.0% YoY, respectively – helped in part by aggressive expansions. At the same time, premium and mid-range gyms like Life Time and LA Fitness are also finding success – showing that when it comes to Fitness, there’s plenty of room for a variety of models to thrive.
Superstores – including wholesale clubs – are prime destinations for big, planned shopping expeditions – during which customers can load up on a month’s supply of food items or stock up on home goods. And perhaps for this reason, the category felt the impact of January’s inclement weather more than either dollar chains or supermarkets – which are more likely to see shoppers pop in as needed for daily essentials.
But like Grocery Stores and Discount & Dollar Stores, Superstores ended the quarter with an impressive YoY visit spike, likely fueled by Easter holiday shoppers.
As in Q4 2023, membership warehouse chains – Costco Wholesale, BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Sam’s Club – drove much of the Superstore category’s positive visit growth, as shoppers likely engaged in mission-driven shopping in an effort to stretch their budgets. Still, segment mainstays Walmart and Target also enjoyed positive foot traffic growth, with YoY visits up 3.9% and 3.5%, respectively.
Moving into more discretionary territory, Dining experienced a marked January slump, as hunkered-down consumers likely opted for delivery. But the segment rallied in February and March, even though foot traffic dipped slightly during the last week of March, when many families gathered to enjoy home-cooked holiday meals.
Coffee Chains and Fast-Casual Restaurants saw the largest YoY visit increases, followed by QSR – highlighting the enduring power of lower-cost, quick-serve dining options. But Full-Service Restaurants (FSR) also saw a slight segment-wide YoY visit uptick in Q1 – good news for a sector that has yet to bounce back from the one-two punch of COVID and inflation. Within each Dining category, however, some chains experienced outsize visit growth – including favorites like Dutch Bros. Coffee, Slim Chickens, In-N-Out Burger, and Texas Roadhouse.
Since the shelter-in-place days of COVID – when everybody had their sourdough starter and DIY was all the rage – Home Improvement & Furnishings chains have faced a tough environment. Many deferred or abandoned home improvement projects in the wake of inflation, and elevated interest rates coupled with a sluggish housing market put a further damper on the category.
Against this backdrop, Home Improvement & Furnishings’ relatively lackluster Q1 visit performance should come as no surprise. But the narrowing of the visit gap in March – which also saw one week of positive visit growth – may serve as a promising sign for the segment. (The abrupt foot traffic drop during the week of March 25th, 2024 is likely a just reflection of Easter holiday shopping pattern.)
Within the Home Improvement & Furnishings space, some bright spots stood out in Q1 – including Harbor Freight Tools, which saw visits increase by 10.0%, partly due to the brand’s growing store count. Tractor Supply Co., Menards, and Ace Hardware also registered visit increases.
January 2024’s stormy weather left its mark on the Q1 retail environment, especially for discretionary categories. But as the quarter progressed, retailers rallied, with healthy YoY foot traffic growth that peaked during the last week of March – the week of Easter Sunday. All in all, retail’s positive Q1 performance leaves plenty of room for optimism about what’s in store for the rest of 2024.
This report includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Over the past year, Fast-Casual & Quick-Service Restaurant (QSR) chains have thrived, consistently outperforming the Full-Service Dining segment with positive year-over-year (YoY) visit growth every quarter since 2023. In this white paper, we dive into the data for leading dining chains to take a closer look at what’s driving visitors to the QSR segment and what other dining categories can learn from fast-food’s success.
One of the key factors separating QSR chains – aptly known as “fast food” – from the rest of the dining industry is the speed at which diners can get a ready-to-eat meal in their hands. And within the QSR space, speed of service is one of the ways chains differentiate themselves from their competition.
Leading fast-food chains are investing heavily in technologies and systems designed to help them serve customers ever more quickly:
Taco Bell’s “Touch Display Kitchen System” is designed to optimize cooking operations and improve wait times, while the chain’s Go Mobile restaurant format seeks to alleviate bottlenecks in the drive-thru lane. Chick-fil-A also has dedicated channels for quick mobile order pick-up and is planning four-lane drive-thrus with second-floor kitchens to get meals out even faster. And to save time at the drive-thru, Wendy’s is experimenting with generative AI and developing an underground, robotic system to deliver digital orders to designated parking spots within seconds.
And location intelligence shows that all three chains are succeeding in reducing customer wait times. Over the past four years, Taco Bell, Chick-fil-A, and Wendy’s have seen steady increases in the share of visits to their venues lasting less than 10 minutes.
The data also suggests that investment in speed of service can increase overall visitation to QSR venues.
In late 2022, McDonald’s opened a to-go-only location outside of Dallas, TX with a lane dedicated to mobile order fulfillment via a conveyor belt. And in Q1 2024, this venue not only had a larger share of short visits compared to the other McDonald’s locations in the region, but also more visits compared to the McDonald’s average visits per venue in the Dallas-Fort Worth CBSA.
This provides further support for the power of fast order fulfillment to drive QSR visits, with customers motivated by the prospect of getting in and out quickly.
The success of the fast-food segment is even driving other restaurants to borrow typical QSR formats – especially during time slots when people are most likely to grab a bite to eat on the go.
In September 2023, full-service leader Applebee’s opened a new format: a fast casual location focusing on To Go orders in Deer Park, NY, featuring pick-up lockers for digital orders and limited dine-in options without table service.
And the new format is already attracting outsized weekday and lunchtime crowds. In Q1 2024, 20.5% of visits to the chain’s To Go venue took place during the 12:00 PM - 2:00 PM time slot, while the average Applebee’s in the New York-Newark-Jersey City CBSA received less than 10% of its daily visits during that daypart. The new restaurant also drew a significantly higher share of weekday visits than other nearby venues.
This suggests that takeaway-focused venues could help full-service chains grow their visit share during weekdays and the coveted lunch rush, when consumers may be less inclined to have a sit-down meal.
An additional factor contributing to QSR and Fast Casual success in 2024 may be the rise of chicken-based chains. Chicken is a versatile ingredient that has remained relatively affordable, which could be contributing to its growing popularity and the rapid expansion of several chicken chains.
Comparing the relative visit share (not including delivery) of various sub-segments within the wider Fast Casual & QSR space showed that the share of visits to chains with chicken-based menus has increased steadily between 2019 and 2023: In Q1 2024, 15.3% of Fast Casual & QSR visits were to a chicken restaurant concept, compared to just 13.4% in Q1 2019.
The strength of chicken-based concepts is also evident when comparing average visits per venue at leading chicken chains with the wider Fast Casual & QSR average.
Both Chick-fil-A, the nation’s predominant chicken chain, and Raising Cane’s, a rapidly expanding player in the fast-food chicken space, are receiving significantly more visits per venue than their Fast Casual & QSR peers: In Q1 2024, Raising Cane’s and Chick-fil-A restaurants saw an average of 153.0% and 237.7% more visits per venue, respectively, compared to the combined Fast Casual & QSR industries average.
The elevated traffic at chicken chains likely plays a part in their profitability per restaurant relative to other Fast Casual & QSR concepts with more sizable fleets.
QSR and Fast-Casual chains are also particularly adept at generating seasonal visit spikes through unique Limited Time Offers and holiday promotions adapted to the calendar.
Arby’s recently launched a 2 for $6 sandwich promotion on February 1st, with two of the three sandwich options on promotion being fish-based in an apparent attempt to entice diners eschewing meat in observance of Lent. The company also brought back a specialty fish sandwich, likely with the goal of further appealing to the Lent-observing demographic.
The offers seem to have driven significant traffic spikes, with foot traffic during the promotion period significantly higher than the January daily visit average. And traffic was particularly elevated during Lent – which this year fell on Wednesday, February 14th through Thursday, March 28th, with visits spiking on Fridays when those observing are most likely to seek out fish-based meals.
Some of the elevated visits in the second half of Q1 may be attributed to the comparison to a weaker January across the dining segment. But the success of the fish-forward promotion specifically during Lent suggests that the company’s calendar-appropriate LTO played a major role in driving visits to the chain.
Shorter-term promotions – even those lasting just a single day – can also drive major visit spikes.
Since 1991, White Castle has transformed its fast-food restaurants into a reservation-only, “fine-dining” experience for dinner on Valentine's Day. In 2024, Valentine’s Day fell on a Wednesday, and White Castle’s sit-down event drove a 11.8% visit increase relative to the average Wednesday in Q1 2024 and a 3.9% visit increase compared to the overall Q1 2024 daily average.
The elevated visit numbers over Valentine’s Day are even more impressive when considering that a full-service dining room can accommodate fewer visitors than the drive-thrus and counter service of White Castle’s typical QSR configuration. The spike in February 14th visits may also be attributed to an increased number of diners showing up throughout the day to take in the Valentine’s Day buzz.
QSR and Fast-Casual dining are having a moment. And the data shows that a combination of factors – including fast and efficient service, the rising popularity of chicken-based dining concepts, and effective LTOs – are all playing a part in the categories’ recent success.
