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Summer is underway, and malls are still bustling. In July 2024, visits to indoor malls and open-air shopping centers were up 2.5% and 2.4%, respectively, compared to the equivalent period of 2023. Though these year-over-year (YoY) increases were more moderate than the significant jumps observed in May and June, they underscore the segment’s continued solid positioning. Outlet malls, for their parts, saw a slight 0.4% decline in mall visits compared to July 2023.
At first glance, July’s softer numbers – particularly for outlet malls – may appear to herald the start of a retail and mall visit summer slow-down. But zooming into weekly visit data offers further context that can shed light on what may lie ahead in the coming months.
Analyzing week-over-week (WoW) visit trends shows that during the last two weeks of June and the first two weeks of July, all three mall indexes saw visits either decline or hold steady from week to week. The one notable exception was outlet malls – which experienced an impressive and sudden 13.7% WoW surge in visits to outlet malls during the first week of July, driven by the segment's exceptional Independence Day draw. Outlet malls’ subsequent WoW visit drop also reflects this exceptional Fourth of July peak.
The final two weeks of July showed a change in visit trajectory, with all three mall segments experiencing growing WoW visit gains as traffic picked up towards the end of the month. This upward trend can likely be attributed to the back-to-school season getting into full swing, with sales typically running from mid to late July through August and into mid-September.
Here too, the late July WoW visit gains were strongest for outlet malls – perhaps showcasing consumers' prioritization of budget shopping ahead of the new school year.
The Placer.ai Mall Index has frequently highlighted the power of special calendar milestones to drive significant shopping center visit spikes. And Independence Day is no exception.
On July 4th, shoppers nationwide flock to stores for holiday deals, often after enjoying hotdogs, hamburgers, and other festive treats. But though all three mall types have shops that are open on the holiday, it is outlet malls that really draw the crowds. On July 4th, 2024, visits to outlet malls shot up 50.7% compared to an average YTD Thursday. Foot traffic to indoor malls and open-air shopping centers, on the other hand, remained below levels usually seen on Thursdays.
Between Fourth of July sales and a long, summer holiday weekend, many consumers chose to spend their time off this year driving out to outlet malls and browsing their offerings to find the best deals.
Between the Fourth of July and back-to-school shopping, July was yet another busy month across shopping malls nationwide. But how will malls continue to fare in August as school goes back into session and summer vacationers go back to work?
Follow our blog at Placer.ai to find out.
Employers from local governments to major corporations are tightening their return-to-office (RTO) policies – cracking down on practices like coffee-badging and requiring employees to relocate closer to the workplace. Last month, the Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index showed that offices throughout much of the U.S. were the busiest they’d been since the pandemic. But what happened in July 2024?
We dove into the data to find out.
In July 2024, visits to office buildings nationwide were down just 27.8% compared to July 2019 – outpacing even June 2024’s impressive showing. Stated differently, July 2024 office building foot traffic reached 72.2% of July 2019 levels – and the highest it’s been since the pandemic. So even if some RTO mandates are intended to encourage “voluntary turnover” – i.e. make some workers quit – stricter face time policies are also having an appreciable impact on the ground.
Drilling down into the data for major cities nationwide shows that, once again, Miami and New York led the regional recovery pack in July – with visits to offices in both cities reaching about 90% of July 2019 levels. For both cities, as well as Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Denver, Los Angeles, and San Francisco, July 2024 was the single busiest in-office month since 2020. And though Dallas and Washington, D.C. experienced busier months earlier in the year, both hubs outperformed the nationwide baseline in July – with local offices recouping 76.9% and 73.9%, respectively, of July 2019 office foot traffic.
Houston office visits, for their part, continued to be weighed down by stormy weather – with flooding and power outages in the wake of hurricane Beryl keeping many local residents hunkered down at home.
Despite these differences, all 11 analyzed cities experienced year-over-year (YoY) visit growth in July 2024 – further evidence that the office recovery remains very much underway. Miami led with 22.8% YoY visit growth, followed by West Coast hubs San Francisco and Los Angeles. And though hurricane-hit Houston unsurprisingly lagged behind other cities, it too saw YoY growth.
“Hushed hybrid” trends notwithstanding, offices were busier in July 2024 than during any other month since the pandemic. How much longer will the RTO continue to accelerate?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven office recovery analyses to find out.
After theaters were dominated by Barbenheimer in 2023, 2024 is shaping up to be another record-breaking year, with several big-name releases. We took a closer look at visitation patterns at major movie theater chains – AMC Theatres, Regal Cinemas, and Cinemark – to analyze how foot traffic has been impacted by the highly anticipated summer releases of Deadpool & Wolverine and Twisters.
Last year was one of the most exciting ones in recent memory for cinema, with multiple films breaking box-office records and driving foot traffic at movie theaters across the country. But 2024 has had plenty of tricks up its cinematic sleeve, and several summer releases have been meeting the high bar set by Barbenheimer. Inside Out 2, released nationwide on June 14th 2024, kickstarted the summer with a major movie-goer visit boost– and Deadpool & Wolverine, released on July 26, 2024 brought out even bigger crowds.
Indeed, the superhero crossover movie Deadpool & Wolverine is set to be one of the best-performing films of 2024. During the week of July 22nd, 2024 – when Deadpool & Wolverine was released – visits to movie leaders AMC Theatres, Regal Cinemas, and Cinemark jumped by 132.7% to 140.5% compared to a YTD weekly average. Twisters, released on July 19th, also drove impressive visit boosts ranging from 39.8% to 48.3% during the week of July 15th.
Early screenings have always been a big driver of visits for those lucky enough to grab tickets. And on the day before Deadpool & Wolverine’s big July 26th release, movie theaters already started filling up. On Thursday, July 25th, 2024, visits to AMC, Regal, and Cinemark were up a whopping 231.4% to 249.7% compared to a YTD Thursday average. And Friday, Saturday, and Sunday continued to see visit numbers significantly higher than the YTD visit averages for those days of the week, confirming the movie’s ability to drive visits to theaters. (In absolute terms, Saturday, July 27th was the cinema leaders’ busiest day of the year so far – but since Saturdays tend to be busier than Thursdays, the relative visit spike was somewhat smaller).
Drilling down into the data for major markets shows that though Deadpool & Wolverine was the runaway hit of the summer, Twisters also drove significant visit spikes throughout the country. And of the major markets, some of Twisters’ biggest visit boosts took place in states with plenty of hands-on tornado experience – like Texas, where July 19th visits to AMC, Regal, and Cinemark (combined) were up 98.5% compared to a YTD daily average.
Indeed, looking at the states where Twisters drove the biggest visit spikes shows that many of the top performers were in tornado-prone areas. Oklahoma – where much of the movie was filmed – saw the most impressive Twisters foot traffic bump, with visits to leading cinemas up 224.1% on July 19th, 2024 compared to a YTD daily average. And the tornado-focused thriller also drew outsize crowds in other states where the theme of the movie was more likely than average to resonate with local audiences’ personal experiences – including Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, Iowa, Missouri, and Kansas.
Blockbuster releases like Deadpool & Wolverine, Twisters, and Inside Out 2 highlight the enduring appeal of out-of-home entertainment, and proves that movie theaters are as relevant as ever.
With more highly-anticipated releases still yet to come in 2024, can movie theaters across the country continue to break visit records?
Visit Placer.ai to stay on top of the latest data-driven leisure and entertainment stories.
Ahead of Toyota’s August 1st earnings call, we dove into the data to explore Q2 2024 visitation patterns at Toyota dealerships nationwide. How did year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic to Toyota showrooms perform in Q2 2024 – and what happened in June 2024, when the CDK Global outage caused paralysis across the industry? Who are the customers driving growth for Toyota – and what lies in store for the brand in the months ahead?
We dove into the data to find out.
During the second quarter of 2024, Toyota subsidiary TMNA (Toyota Motor North America, Inc.) reported a remarkable 9.2% year-over-year (YoY) increase in U.S. Toyota vehicle sales, buoyed by rising demand for hybrid cars. (The company also owns the luxury Lexus line).
And foot traffic data shows that U.S. Toyota dealerships have indeed been significantly busier in Q2 2024 than in Q2 2023, outperforming the wider space. Apart from the regular portion of repair and maintenance visits, the auto brand’s YoY visit growth also reflects an increase in interested buyers. In April and May 2024, Toyota dealerships saw respective YoY visit boosts of 8.6% and 7.4%. And though the pace of YoY foot traffic growth to dealerships dropped in June 2024 – likely due in part to the CDK outage – the brand appears poised for continued visit success throughout the rest of the year.
Toyota’s outsize success is likely due, in part, to its broad appeal – amongst everyone from price-conscious families seeking to maximize reliability and fuel efficiency to more affluent consumers that place a high premium on style. Toyota’s Certified Used Vehicles offering also draws in customers looking for trustworthy, pre-owned cars.
Analyzing Toyota dealerships’ captured markets with psychographics from Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive shows that their trade areas are economically diverse. Toyota attracts customers from areas with higher-than-average shares of both middle and working-class families, as well as more affluent ones. And Young Urban Singles are also more likely than average to visit Toyota dealerships.
Still, in Q2 2024, Toyota dealerships attracted a slightly more affluent consumer than average. The median household income (HHI) of the dealerships’ captured markets was $77.0K, just above the nationwide baseline of $76.1K. And looking at changes in Toyota’s audience over time also shows that the median HHI of its customer base has increased steadily over the past few years – rebounding to, and even exceeding, pre-pandemic levels. In the face of high interest rates, consumers with less room in their budgets may be cutting back on visits to car dealerships. And Toyota’s hybrid first strategy may also be increasing its appeal among more affluent car owners, who are more likely to purchase hybrid vehicles.
Will Toyota continue to thrive in the months ahead? And how will its customer base continue to evolve as inflation stabilizes and interest rates eventually come down?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analyses to find out.
All-day breakfast mainstays Denny’s and IHOP (owned by Dine Brands) are two of the most popular full-service restaurants (FSRs) in the United States. But though the chains occupy similar niches, there are some differences between them. We dove into the data to check in with the two breakfast leaders – and see how they stack up against one another on key visitation metrics.
Both Denny’s and IHOP are major players in the FSR space. With its somewhat larger footprint, IHOP captured 6.0% of visits to full-service restaurant chains in the U.S in H1 2024, while Denny’s captured 5.0%. And despite the headwinds that continued to weigh on the sector this year, both chains saw modest YoY foot traffic gains in May and June 2024.
(The relatively big YoY fluctuations that both chains experienced in March and April 2024 are likely due in part to calendar shifts: March 2024 had one more weekend than March 2023, while April 2024 had one fewer weekend than April 2023. The two chains’ YoY June performance was also likely buoyed by an extra weekend in June 2024.)
Who are IHOP’s and Denny’s typical customers? Given the two diners’ affordable offerings, it may come as no surprise that both restaurants draw visitors from captured markets with median household incomes below the nationwide baseline of $76.1K – $67.5K for Denny’s and $69.2K for IHOP.* Both chains also draw substantial shares of customers from Blue Collar Suburbs.
But each breakfast leader also draws a unique mix of visitors from a range of segments – with Denny’s attracting higher shares of middle-class urbanites and IHOP attracting higher shares of wealthy and upper-middle-class suburbanites.
Wealthy Suburban Families, for example, made up 9.5% of IHOP’s captured market and 8.1% of Denny’s in H1 2024 – while Young Urban Singles made up 10.5% of Denny’s captured market and 9.2% of IHOP’s. And while Denny’s visitors were more likely to hail from middle-class Near-Urban Diverse Families, IHOP visitors were more likely to be from upper-middle-class Upper Suburban Diverse Families.
The ability of both chains to attract a wide variety of audiences across economic strata is an important factor in their success and staying power.
*Based on STI: PopStats, combined with Placer.ai trade area data for January-June 2024.
Plenty of people eat at all-day breakfast chains on a regular basis: In June 2024, for example, 16.9% and 14.1% of visitors to Denny’s and IHOP, respectively, frequented the chains at least twice during the month. But for both restaurants, holidays and other special milestones – including Christmas, Mother’s Day, Father’s Day, and Veteran’s Day – drive major visit spikes.
Here too, however, the data reveals important differences between the two chains. Generally speaking, IHOP’s special-occasion visit boosts (compared to annual daily averages) are more substantial than those of Denny’s. And while for Denny’s, Christmas Day is the busiest day of the year, for IHOP, Mother’s Day reigns supreme. And Veteran’s Day – which both IHOP and Denny’s mark with free meals for current and former servicemen and women – is more important for IHOP than for Denny’s.
A look at the daily and hourly breakdown of visits to IHOP and Denny’s shows that the two chains also follow similar visitation patterns – but with a twist. For both restaurants, Sunday morning between 10:00 AM and 1:00 PM is the single most busiest daypart of the week – when many customers likely visit the chains to enjoy leisurely weekend brunches. Predictably, the 10:00 AM to 1:00 PM daypart is also bustling for both breakfast brands throughout the rest of the week.
But though IHOP and Denny’s both have many restaurants that are open 24/7, Denny’s sees a greater share of evening and late night visits than IHOP – perhaps reflecting the chain’s recent push to increase the number of locations open in the wee hours. Between January and June 2024, Friday and Saturday evenings between 10:00 PM and 1:00 AM drew 2.3% and 2.5%, respectively, of weekly visits to Denny’s – compared to just 1.6% and 1.7%, respectively, for IHOP.
IHOP and Denny’s are two of the most important FSR chains on the category landscape. And location analytics shows that there’s plenty of room at the top for both chains, which despite similar offerings serve audiences with somewhat different profiles and behaviors.
For more data-driven restaurant insights, follow Placer.ai.
Warby Parker continues to impress. The company got its start as an online eyewear retailer before opening its first brick-and-mortar location in 2013, and has since expanded rapidly to operate over 200 stores nationwide.
What is driving its success? We dove into the data to find out.
Warby Parker debuted its innovative retail model in 2010, disrupting an eyewear industry dominated by legacy brands. The company’s direct-to-consumer model and online try-on options proved highly popular, and as the brand moved offline, its physical stores flourished.
And more than decade after Warby Parker opened its first brick-and-mortar store, the chain’s offline locations continue to thrive. Between January and June 2024, YoY visits to Warby Parker increased significantly as the chain continued to expand – growing from 204 U.S. locations at the end of Q1 2023 to over 250 today. Over the same period, the average number of visits to each Warby Parker store also rose (except in January, when retail was hard hit by inclement weather) – showing that the brand’s growing footprint is meeting robust demand.
Zooming out on Warby Parker’s monthly visit trajectory – compared to a July 2019 baseline – reveals just how well-positioned the company is heading into the summer. Aside from a brief dip during the early days of the pandemic, the company’s visits have been on a remarkable upward trend, outpacing visits to eye care retailers by a wide margin.
The baseline trend analysis also shows that Warby Parker is particularly prone to seasonal visit fluctuations – with notable foot traffic boosts during the December holiday season. And like other eye care chains, Warby Parker also experiences smaller visit increases during the summer months, as back-to-school shopping gets underway. Given Warby Parker’s strong June 2024 performance, the chain appears poised to enjoy a strong July and August this year.
Warby Parker’s robust positioning heading into the summer may be driven, in part, by its special appeal to college students. Analyzing Warby Parker’s captured market with demographics and psychographics from STI’s PopStats and Landscape datasets shows that the eyewear brand draws customers from trade areas with significantly higher shares of this coveted demographic than the wider eyewear segment: Between January and June 2024 STI: Landscape’s Collegian segment made up 4.2% of Warby Parker’s captured market, compared to just 1.2% for the wider eyewear category. As back-to-college shopping picks up steam, college students may flock to the chain to upgrade their wardrobes with trendy eyeglasses.
And though Warby Parker’s captured market features a lower share of families with children than the category average, parents – who may also get their kids fitted for new glasses before the start of the school year – make up a significant portion of the brand’s visitor base.
Warby Parker has successfully transitioned from an online retailer to a brick-and-mortar powerhouse. Will the chain continue to meet with success as it expands even further?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven retail insights.
Everybody loves coffee. And with some 75% of American adults indulging in a cup of joe at least once a week, it’s no wonder the industry is constantly on an upswing.
In early 2024, year-over-year (YoY) visits to coffee chains increased nationwide – with every state in the continental U.S. experiencing year-over-year (YoY) coffee visit growth.
The most substantial foot traffic boosts were seen in smaller markets like Oklahoma (19.4%), Wyoming (19.3%), and Arkansas (16.9%), where expansions may have a more substantial impact on statewide industry growth. But the nation’s largest coffee markets, including Texas (10.9%), California (4.2%), Florida (4.2%), and New York (3.5%), also experienced significant YoY upticks.
The nation’s coffee visit growth is being fueled, in large part, by chain expansions: Major coffee players are leaning into growing demand by steadily increasing their footprints. And a look at per-location foot traffic trends shows that by and large, they are doing so without significantly diluting visitation to existing stores.
On an industry-wide level, visits to coffee chains increased 5.1% YoY during the first five months of 2024. And over the same period, the average number of visits to each individual coffee location declined just slightly by 0.6% – meaning that individual stores drew just about the same amount of foot traffic as they did in 2023.
Drilling down into chain-level data shows some variation between brands. Dutch Bros., BIGGBY COFFEE and Dunkin’ all saw significant chain-wide visit boosts, accompanied by minor increases in their average number of visits per location.
Starbucks, for its part, which reported a YoY decline in U.S. sales for Q2 2024, maintained a small lag in visits per location. But given the coffee leader’s massive footprint – some 16,600 stores nationwide – its ability to expand while avoiding more significant dilution of individual store performance shows that Starbucks’ growth is meeting robust demand.
What is driving the coffee industry’s remarkable category-wide growth? And who are the customers behind it? This white paper dives into the data to explore key factors driving foot traffic to leading coffee chains in early 2024. The report explores the demographic and psychographic characteristics of visitors to major players in the coffee space and examines strategies brands can use to make the most of the opportunity presented by a thriving industry.
One factor shaping the surge in coffee visit growth is the slow-but-sure return-to-office (RTO). Hybrid work may be the post-COVID new normal – but RTO mandates and WFH fatigue have led to steady increases in office foot traffic over the past year. And in some major hubs – including New York and Miami – office visits are back to more than 80.0% of what they were pre-pandemic.
A look at shifting Starbucks visitation patterns shows that customer journeys and behavior increasingly reflect those of office-goers. In April and May 2022, for example, 18.6% of Starbucks visitors proceeded to their workplace immediately following their coffee stop – but by 2024, this share shot up to 21.0%.
Over the same period, the percentage of early morning (7:00 to 10:00 AM) Starbucks visits lasting less than 10 minutes also increased significantly – from 64.3% in 2022 to 68.7% in 2024. More customers are picking up their coffee on the go – many of them on the way to work – rather than settling down to enjoy it on-site.
Dunkin’ is another chain that is benefiting from consumers on the go. Examining the coffee giant’s performance across major regional markets – those where the chain maintains a significant presence – reveals a strong correlation between the share of Dunkin’ visits in each state lasting less than five minutes and the chain’s local YoY trajectory.
In Wisconsin, for example, 50.9% of visits to Dunkin’ between January and May 2024 lasted less than five minutes. And Wisconsin also saw the most impressive YoY visit growth (5.9%). Illinois, Ohio, Maine, and Connecticut followed similar patterns, with high shares of very short visits and strong YoY showings.
On the other end of the spectrum lay Tennessee, Alabama, and Florida, where very short visits accounted for a low share of the chain’s statewide total – under 40.% – and where visits declined YoY.
Dunkin’s success with very short visits may be driven in part by its popular app, which makes it easy for harried customers to place their order online and save time in-store. And this is good news indeed for the coffee leader – since customers using the app also tend to generate bigger tickets.
Dutch Bros.’ meteoric rise has been fueled, in part, by its appeal to younger audiences. Recently ranked as Gen Z’s favorite quick-service restaurant, the rapidly-expanding coffee chain sets itself apart with a strong brand identity built on cultivating a positive, friendly customer experience.
And Dutch Bros.’ people-centered approach is resonating especially well with singles – including young adults living alone – who may particularly appreciate the chain’s community atmosphere.
Analyzing the relative performance of Dutch Bros.’ locations across metro areas – focusing on regions where the chain has a strong local presence – shows that it performs best in areas with plenty of singles. Indeed, the share of one-person households in Dutch Bros.’ local captured markets is very strongly correlated with the coffee brand’s CBSA-level YoY per-location visit performance. Areas with higher concentrations of one-person households saw significantly more YoY visit growth in the first part of 2024. (A chain’s captured market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to the CBG’s share of visits to the chain – and so reflects the population that actually visits the chain in practice).
The share of one-person households in Dutch Bros.’ Tucson, AZ captured market, for example, stands at 33.4% – well above the nationwide baseline of 27.5%. And between January and May 2024, Tucson-area Dutch Bros. saw a 6.0% increase in the average number of visits per location. Tulsa, OK, Medford, OR, and Oklahoma City, OK – which also feature high shares of one-person households (over 30.0%) – similarly saw per-location visit increases ranging from 3.6% - 7.0%. On the flip side, Fresno, CA, Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV, and San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX, which feature lower-than-average shares of single-person households, saw YoY per-location visit declines ranging from 1.5%-9.5%.
As Dutch Bros. forges ahead with its planned expansions, it may benefit from doubling down on this trends and focusing its development efforts on markets with higher-than-average shares of one-person households – such as university towns or urban areas with lots of young professionals.
Michigan-based BIGGBY COFFEE is another java winner in expansion mode. With a growth strategy focused on emerging markets with less brand saturation, BIGGBY has been setting its sights on small towns and rural areas throughout the Midwest and South. Though the chain does have locations in bigger cities like Detroit and Cincinnati, some of its most significant markets are in smaller population centers.
And a look at the captured markets of BIGGBY’s 20 top-performing locations in early 2024 shows that they are significantly over-indexed for suburban consumers – both compared to BIGGBY as a whole and compared to nationwide baselines. (Top-performing locations are defined as those that experienced the greatest YoY visit growth between January and May 2024).
“Suburban Boomers”, for example – a Spatial.ai: PersonaLive segment encompassing middle-class empty-nesters living in suburbs – comprised 10.6% of BIGGBY’s top captured markets in early 2024, compared to just 6.6% for BIGGBY’s overall. (The nationwide baseline for Suburban Boomers is even lower – 4.4%.) And Upper Diverse Suburban Families – a segment made up of upper-middle-class suburbanites – accounted for 9.6% of the captured markets of BIGGBY’s 20 top locations, compared to just 7.2% for BIGGBY’s as a whole, and 8.3% nationwide.
Coffee has long been one of America’s favorite beverages. And java chains that offer consumers an enjoyable, affordable way to splurge are expanding both their footprints and their audiences. By leaning into shifting work routines and catering to customers’ varying habits and preferences, major coffee players like Starbucks, Dunkin’, Dutch Bros., and BIGGBY COFFEE are continuing to thrive.
Note: This report is based on an analysis of visitation patterns for regional and nationwide grocery chains and does not include single-location stores.
Grocery stores, superstores, and dollar stores all carry food products – and American consumers buy groceries at all three. But even in today’s crowded food retail environment, traditional grocery chains have a special role to play. With their primary focus on stocking a wide variety of fresh foods, these chains serve a critical function in offering consumers access to healthy options.
But visualizing the footprints of major grocery chains across the continental U.S. – alongside those of discount & dollar stores – shows that the geographical distribution of grocery chains remains uneven.
In some areas, including parts of the Northeast, Midwest, South Atlantic, and Pacific regions, grocery chains are plentiful. But in others – some with population centers large enough to feature a robust dollar store presence – they remain in short supply.
And though many superstore locations also provide a full array of grocery offerings, they, too, are often sparsely represented in areas with low concentrations of grocery chains.
For grocery chain operators seeking to expand, these underserved grocery markets can present a significant opportunity. And for civic stakeholders looking to broaden access to healthy food across communities, these areas highlight a policy challenge. For both groups, identifying underserved markets with significant untapped demand can be a critical first step in deciding where to focus grocery development initiatives.
This white paper dives into the location analytics to examine grocery store availability across the United States – and harnesses these insights to explore potential demand in some underserved markets. The report focuses on locations belonging to regional or nationwide grocery chains, rather than single-location stores.
Last year, grocery chains accounted for 43.4% of nationwide visits to food retailers – including grocery chains, superstores, and discount & dollar stores. But drilling down into the data for different areas of the country reveals striking regional variation – offering a glimpse into the variability of grocery store access throughout the U.S. In some states, grocery stores attract the majority of visit share to food retailers, while in others, dollar stores or superstores dominate the scene.
The ten states where residents were most likely to visit grocery chains in early 2024 – Oregon, Vermont, Washington, Massachusetts, California, Maryland, New Hampshire, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Rhode Island – were all on the East or West Coasts. In these states, as well as in Nevada and New York, grocery chain visits accounted for 50.0% or more of food retail visits between January and April 2024.
Meanwhile, residents of many West North Central and South Central states were much less likely to do their food shopping at grocery chains. In North Dakota, for example, grocery chain visits accounted for just 11.7% of visits to food retailers over the analyzed period. And in Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, too, grocery stores drew less than 20.0% of the overall food retail foot traffic.
But low grocery store visit share does not necessarily indicate a lack of consumer interest or ability to support such stores. And in some of these underserved regions, existing grocery chains are seeing outsize visit growth – indicating growing demand for their offerings.
North Dakota, the state with the smallest share of visits going to grocery chains in early 2024, experienced a 9.1% year-over-year (YoY) increase in grocery visits during the same period – nearly double the nationwide baseline of 5.7%. Other states with low grocery visit share, including Nebraska, Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi, and New Mexico, also experienced higher-than-average YoY grocery chain visit growth. This suggests significant untapped potential for grocery stores and a market that is hungry for more.
Alabama is one state where grocery chains accounted for a relatively small share of overall food retail foot traffic in early 2024 (just 28.9%) – but where YoY visit growth outperformed the nationwide average. And digging down even further into local grocery store visitation trends provides further evidence that at least in some places, low grocery visit share may be due to inadequate supply, rather than insufficient demand.
In Central Alabama, for example, many residents drive at least 10 miles to reach a local grocery chain. And several parts of the state, both rural and urban, feature clusters of grocery stores that draw customers from relatively far away.
But zooming in on YoY visitation data for local grocery chain locations shows that at least some of these areas likely harbor untapped demand. Take for example the Camden, Butler, Thomasville, and Gilbertown areas (circled in the map above). The Piggly Wiggly location in Butler, AL, drew 40.1% of visits from 10 or more miles away. The same store experienced a 23.3% YoY increase in visits in early 2024 – far above the statewide baseline of 6.6%. Meanwhile, the Super Foods location in Thomasville, AL, which drew 52.8% of visits from at least 10 miles away – experienced YoY visit growth of 12.3%. The Piggly Wiggly locations in Camden, AL and Gilbertown, AL saw similar trends.
At the same time, trade area analysis of the four locations reveals that the grocery stores had little to no trade area overlap during the analyzed period. Each store served specific areas, with minimal cannibalization among customer bases.
These metrics appear to highlight robust demand for grocery stores in the region – grocery visits are growing at a stronger rate than those in the overall state, people are willing to make the drive to these stores, and each one has little to no competition from the others.
While significant opportunity exists across the country, many communities still face considerable challenges in supporting large grocery stores. Though South Carolina has a significant number of grocery chain locations, for example, certain areas within the state have low access to food shopping opportunities. And one local government – Greenville County – is considering offering tax breaks to grocery stores that set up shop in the area, to improve local fresh food accessibility.
Placer.ai migration and visitation data shows that Greenville County is ripe for such initiatives: the county’s population grew by 4.8% over the past four years – with much of that increase a result of positive net migration. And YoY visits to Greenville County Grocery Stores have consistently outperformed state averages: In April 2024, grocery visits in the county grew by 6.1% YoY, while overall visits to grocery stores in South Carolina grew by 4.2%. This growth – both in terms of grocery visits and population – points to rising demand for grocery stores in Greenville County.
Analyzing the Greenville County grocery store trade areas with Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph dataset – which looks at the social media activity of a given audience – offers further insight into local grocery shoppers’ particular demand and preferences.
Consumers in Greenville-area grocery store trade areas, for example, are more likely to be interested in “Mid-Range Grocery Stores” (including brands like Aldi, Kroger, and Lidl) than residents of grocery store trade areas in the state as a whole. This metric provides further evidence of local demand for grocery chains – and offers a glimpse into the kinds of specific grocery offerings likely to succeed in the area.
Grocery stores remain essential services for many consumers, providing a place to pick up fresh produce, meat, and other healthy food options. And many areas in the country are ripe for expansion, with eager customer bases and growing demand. Identifying such areas with location analytics can help both grocery store operators and municipal stakeholders provide their communities and customer bases with an enhanced grocery shopping experience that caters to local preferences.
Following COVID-era highs, domestic migration levels have begun to taper off – with the number of Americans moving within the U.S. hitting an all-time low, according to some sources, in 2023.
To be sure, some popular COVID-era destinations – including Idaho, the Carolinas, and Utah – saw their net domestic migration continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace. But other states which had been relocation hotspots between February 2020 and February 2023, such as Wyoming and Texas, experienced negative net migration between February 2023 and February 2024.
Analyzing CBSA-level migration data reveals differences and similarities between last year’s migration patterns and COVID-era trends.
Between February 2020 and February 2023, seven out of the ten CBSAs posting the largest population increases due to inbound domestic migration were located in Florida. But between February 2023 and February 2024, the top 10 CBSAs with the largest net migrated percent of the population were significantly more diverse. Only four out of the ten CBSAs were located in Florida, and several new metro areas – including Provo-Orem, UT, Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA, and Boulder, CO – joined the list.
This white paper leverages a variety of location intelligence tools – including Placer.ai’s Migration Report, Niche Neighborhood Grades, and ACS Census Data location intelligence – to analyze two migration hotspots. Specifically, the report focuses on Daytona Beach, FL, which already appeared on the February 2020 to February 2023 list and has continued to see steady growth, and Boulder, CO, which has emerged as a new top destination. The data highlights the potential of CBSAs with unique value propositions to continue to attract newcomers despite ongoing housing headwinds.
The Boulder, CO CBSA has emerged as a domestic migration hotspot: The net influx of population between February 2023 and February 2024 (i.e. the total number of people that moved to Boulder from elsewhere in the U.S., minus those that left) constituted 3.1% of the CBSA’s February 2024 population.
The strong migration is partially due to the University of Colorado, Boulder’s growing popularity. But the metro area has also emerged as a flourishing tech hub, with Google, Apple, and Amazon all setting up shop in town, along with a wealth of smaller start ups.
Most domestic relocators tend to remain within state lines – so unsurprisingly, many of the recent newcomers to Boulder moved from other CBSAs in Colorado. But perhaps due to Boulder’s robust tech ecosystem, many of the new residents also came from Los Angeles, CA (6.6%) and San Francisco, CA (3.4%) – other CBSAs known for their thriving tech scenes.
At the same time, looking at the other CBSAs feeding migration to the area indicates that tech is likely not the only draw attracting people to Boulder: A significant share of relocators came from the CBSAs of Chicago, IL (6.1%), Dallas , TX (4.9%), and New York, NY (3.9%). The move from these relatively urbanized CBSAs to scenic Boulder indicates that some of the domestic migration to the area is likely driven by people looking for better access to nature or a general lifestyle change.
According to the U.S. News & World Report, Boulder ranked in second place in terms of U.S. cities with the best quality of life. Using Niche Neighborhood Grades to compare quality of life attributes in the Boulder CBSA and in the areas of origin dataset highlights some of the draw factors attracting newcomers to Boulder beyond the thriving tech scene.
The Boulder CBSA ranked higher than the metro areas of origin for “Public Schools,” “Health & Fitness,” “Fit for Families,” and “Access to Outdoor Activities.” These migration draw factors are likely helping Boulder attract more senior executives alongside younger tech workers – and can also explain why relocators from more urban metro areas may be choosing to make Boulder their home.
Boulder’s strong inbound migration numbers over the past year – likely driven by its flourishing tech scene and beautiful natural surroundings – reveal the growth potential of certain CBSAs regardless of wider housing market headwinds.
Florida experienced a population boom during the pandemic, and several CBSAs in the state – including the Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL CBSA – have continued to welcome domestic relocators in high numbers. The CBSA’s anchor city, Daytona Beach – known for its Bike Week and NASCAR’s Daytona 500 – has also seen positive net migration between February 2023 and February 2024.
Americans planning for retirement or retirees operating on a fixed income are likely particularly interested in optimizing their living expenses. And given Daytona’s relative affordability, it’s no surprise that the median age in the areas of origin feeding migration to Daytona Beach tends to be on the older side.
According to the 2021 Census ACS 5-Year Projection data, the median age in Daytona Beach was 39.0. Meanwhile, the weighted median age in the areas of migration origin was 42.6, indicating that those moving to Daytona Beach may be older than the current residents of the city.
Zooming into the migration data on a zip code level also highlights Daytona Beach’s appeal to older Americans: The zip code welcoming the highest rates of domestic migration was 32124, home to both Jimmy Buffet’s Latitude Margaritaville’s 55+ community and the LPGA International Golf Club, host of the LPGA Tour. The median age in this zip code is also older than in Daytona Beach as a whole, and the weighted age in the zip codes of origin was even higher – suggesting that older Americans and retirees may be driving much of the migration to the area.
Looking at the migration draw factors for Daytona Beach also suggests that the city is particularly appealing to retirees, with the city scoring an A grade for its “Fit for Retirees.” But the city of Daytona Beach is also an attractive destination for anyone looking to elevate their leisure time, with the city scoring higher than Daytona Beach’s cities of migration origin for “Weather,” “Access to Restaurants,” or “Access to Nightlife.”
Like Boulder, Daytona’s scenery – including its famous beaches – is likely attracting newcomers looking to spend more time outdoors and improve their work-life balance. And like Boulder and its tech scene, Daytona Beach also has an extra pull factor – its affordability and fit for older Americans – that is likely helping the area continue to attract new residents, even as domestic migration slows down nationwide.
Although the overall pace of domestic migration has slowed, analyzing location intelligence data reveals several migration hotspots amidst the overall cooldown. Boulder and Daytona Beach each have a set of unique draw factors that seem to attract different populations – and the success of these regions highlights the many paths to migration growth in 2024.
