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Black Friday is the biggest retail milestone of the year – drawing millions of shoppers to stores nationwide. And even as e-commerce claims a growing piece of the holiday shopping pie, consumers flock to brick-and-mortar retailers to browse the aisles, check out new products, and enjoy the festive holiday atmosphere.
But how did brick-and-mortar retailers fare during this year’s Black Friday? Did the high-stakes shopping period deliver?
Black Friday has evolved into a multi-day shopping bonanza. Early holiday sales draw crowds well before Thanksgiving, and major markdowns continue into the weekend and through Cyber Monday. Still, foot traffic data shows that the traditional milestone hasn’t lost its touch. On November 29th, 2024 visits to retailers nationwide surged by 40.4% compared to an average Friday this year – up slightly from 39.8% in 2023.
Year over year (YoY), retail foot traffic increased 0.9% on Black Friday this year – a modest uptick, but one which highlights the resilience of physical retail in an increasingly digital world. Most of the days during the week leading up to Black Friday also saw modest YoY visit increases, as shoppers got a head start on their bargain hunting. And the Saturday and Sunday following the milestone saw more significant YoY visit increases of 2.0% and 6.2%, respectively – perhaps driven in part by customers picking up orders placed online during Black Friday.
Digging deeper into the data for different areas of the country shows that the resonance of the milestone varies significantly by region. In Delaware and New Hampshire, visits to retailers on November 29th were up a whopping 75.9% and 72.8%, respectively, compared to an average Friday this year. And in much of the Midwest – including North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Indiana, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Kansas – retail foot traffic surged by more than 50.0%. By contrast, Western states such as California (26.0%), Wyoming (24.1%), New Mexico (24.5%), Montana (31.3%), Colorado (32.6%), Nevada (33.1%), and Utah (33.6%) experienced much more modest visit boosts.
The differences in statewide Black Friday performance may reflect more general regional Black Friday patterns. Though the Mountain states saw smaller Black Friday visit spikes than other areas of the country, retail visits in the region on November 29th, 2024 were up 4.1% YoY – perhaps a sign that the milestone is growing in local importance. The Eastern and Western South Central regions saw YoY visit increases of 3.7% and 2.8%, respectively – while the South Atlantic region saw a 1.5% increase. Meanwhile, some of the areas where Black Friday is most resonant – including the Midwest – saw visits remain flat or fall slightly below 2023 levels.
Holiday shopping is about more than just making transactions – consumers eagerly leave the comfort of their homes to embrace the thrill of the treasure hunt, explore new products firsthand, and enjoy the experience of shopping with friends. And foot traffic data shows that Black Friday retains plenty of in-person appeal.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai.
Many Americans choose to take the entire week of Thanksgiving off, heading home early and maximizing family time during the holiday. How does the extra vacation time impact travel and leisure foot traffic? We dove into the data to find out.
The Tuesday and Wednesday before Thanksgiving are among the busiest travel days of the year as Americans head back home or travel to friends to celebrate the holiday with loved ones. But with many employees taking the entire week of Thanksgiving off – or choosing to work remotely – the Saturday before Thanksgiving is also a popular travel day.
On Saturday November 23rd, 2024, major U.S. airports and ground transportation hubs saw a 16.8% and 12.5% increase in visits, respectively, compared to the recent Saturday average. The Saturday spike suggests that many travelers started their holiday journey early to avoid the pre-Thanksgiving rush while enjoying a little more time with family and friends.
Visits to both airports and ground transportation hubs then fell on Sunday – although the airport drop was more pronounced than the bus and train station dip – before diverging for the rest of the week: Bus and train stations rose on Monday and peaked on Tuesday before leveling off, while airport visits stayed low on Monday, spiked on Tuesday, and peaked on Wednesday.
The dip in Monday visits along with the relatively larger drop in Sunday visits for airports is likely due to athe decrease in business travel during the week of Thanksgiving. Meanwhile, ground transportation may pick up on Monday because those trips tend to be longer – so travelers could be choosing to head out earlier.
But even as travel traffic increased, hospitality visits dipped. Most hotel categories – with the exception of luxury hotels – received significantly fewer visits on the days before Thanksgiving relative to their recent daily visit averages, with visits only rising slightly for some categories just before the holiday.
This substantial drop in hotel visits pre-Thanksgiving is likely due to a decrease in business travel ahead of the holiday. But all that Saturday travel (see above) still means more people away from home – so where are these travelers staying? The dip in hotel visits before Thanksgiving suggests that many people traveling earlier in the week may be choosing to forego the hotel and instead stay with friends or family.
How do these early Thanksgiving travelers spend their time ahead of the holiday?
Many of those traveling early may be taking extra PTO ahead of the holiday to maximize quality time with their geographically distant family – so, unsurprisingly, foot traffic data indicates that visits to family-friendly destinations spike ahead of the holiday.
This year, visits to museums, aquariums, and zoos peaked on the Tuesday before Thanksgiving relative to the recent Tuesday average, and remained significantly elevated on Wednesday. Museums – which may appeal to a wider age range than the other two types of attractions – also received a substantial visit boost on Monday.
This trend highlights the opportunity for family-friendly venues to strategically plan events, promotions, and extended hours during the early Thanksgiving week to attract traveling families seeking meaningful experiences together.
Indeed, zooming in on family-friendly museums across the country reveals that these venues tend to welcome a much larger share of out-of-town guests on the Monday to Wednesday before Thanksgiving compared to the same period the week before. This suggests that many of those who traveled early for Thanksgiving use the days ahead of the holiday to spend quality time with their relatives and engage in family-friendly activities in their hosts’ cities. Museums and similar venues can capitalize on this trend by tailoring their offerings or promotions to appeal to these out-of-town visitors during this peak period.
Analyzing pre-Thanksgiving foot traffic to travel hubs and leisure venues reveals that many Americans likely leverage the extra time off to extend their stay with their loved ones and explore local attractions together. By understanding these trends, businesses and cultural institutions can better cater to holiday travelers, creating meaningful experiences during this uniquely busy and family-focused season.
For more data-driven insights, visit Placer.ai.
Many of Thanksgiving’s consumer behavior impacts are broadly recognized, from the pre-Thanksgiving Turkey Wednesday peak at grocery stores to the post-Thanksgiving Black Friday shopping bonanza. But diving into consumer foot traffic trends for the week before the holiday reveals some lesser-known ripple effects from many Americans’ favorite national event. So how did Thanksgiving impact retail, dining, and airport visits this year? We analyzed the data to find out.
Many Americans host friends and family for Thanksgiving dinner, leading to the well-recognized spike in pre-Thanksgiving grocery traffic that culminates on Turkey Wednesday. But hosting a proper Thanksgiving dinner requires more than just good food – the space needs to be prepped as well.
Foot traffic data indicates that many consumers do in fact spend the week before Thanksgiving shopping for decor and other entertainment supplies, driving visit increases at home furnishing stores such as Homesense and at party supply stores such as Party City. And the prospect of guests also seems to motivate consumers to tackle whatever home repair projects they’ve been putting off – visits to home improvement stores, including Home Depot and Lowe’s, also received a significant boost the week before Turkey Day.
All the time spent in the kitchen cooking for Thanksgiving may also be contributing to a rise in dining visits on the days leading up to the holiday. Although visits to restaurants, breakfast joints, and fast food places dipped slightly during the weekend before Thanksgiving, foot traffic to major dining segments began climbing on Monday, November 25th before peaking on Turkey Wednesday.
This increase in dining visits could be due in part to home cooks – and their families – looking to fuel up outside the home as the kitchen gets taken over by Thanksgiving prep. And some Americans who started the Thanksgiving vacation early may choose to spend some quality time going out to eat with their friends and families prior to the big day. Others who are already traveling may also be driving up dining visits by looking for more meals on the go.
But even as some Americans begin their Thanksgiving travels earlier in the week, most Americans traveling by car seem to wait until Wednesday to head out – and the traffic boost to car-related categories seems to occur much closer to the day itself. Car shops & services and gas stations & convenience stores received a minor bump on the Tuesday before Thanksgiving as some Americans hit the road early or got their car serviced ahead of the long drive back home. But most of the traffic boost to car shops, car washes, and gas stations occurred on Wednesday November 27th – just before Thanksgiving travel.
Thanksgiving’s economic impact is not limited to grocery stores and post-Thanksgiving Black Friday shopping. Analyzing consumer foot traffic data for the week before the holiday reveals the widespread impact that Thanksgiving has on a range of consumer sectors, from car washes to dining segments to home improvement.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai.
Turkey Wednesday – the day before Thanksgiving – is the grocery industry’s Black Friday. As shoppers flock to stores for turkeys, cranberry sauce, and other holiday essentials, the day delivers impressive visit spikes for grocery, superstore, and dollar stores alike. But how did this year’s Turkey Wednesday measure up – and which brands capitalized most successfully on this critical shopping event?
We dove into the data to find out.
People love to shop – but they also love to procrastinate, descending on stores just before major holidays to grab last-minute supplies. So far in 2024, March 30th (Easter Eve), May 11th (the day before Mother's Day), and November 27th (Turkey Wednesday) have been the busiest days of the year for grocery stores, superstores, and discount & dollar stores. But while the first two milestones drew bigger crowds to superstores and discount & dollar stores – both natural destinations for gift buyers and food shoppers alike – Turkey Wednesday was the grocery sector’s time to shine.
On November 27th, 2024, grocery stores saw visits surge by 81.0% compared to a year-to-date (YTD) daily average, capturing over half (51.2%) of visits across grocery, superstore, and discount chains. (During the rest of the year, grocery stores account for just 46.6% of the three industries’ overall visit pie.) Still, superstores and discount & dollar stores also attracted plenty of pre-Thanksgiving shoppers with enticing holiday promotions of their own. And despite reports of consumer cut-backs ahead of the holiday, this year’s Turkey Wednesday performance was on par with last year’s, with grocery visits on November 27th 2024 up 0.7% relative to November 22nd 2023 (last year’s Turkey Wednesday).
Diving into statewide grocery store data shows that like Black Friday, Turkey Wednesday’s appeal isn’t evenly distributed across the United States. Though grocery visits spiked nationwide on November 27th, 2024, some regions saw bigger foot traffic peaks than others.
In the Pacific Northwest, parts of New England, and some Mountain states, for example, grocery visits increased by less than 70.0% compared to a YTD daily average. But in parts of the Midwest and South, visits spiked by over 90.0%. Mississippi and Minnesota in particular stood out as major Turkey Wednesday winners, with visits up 96.8% and 96.5%, respectively. These regional differences highlight Turkey Wednesday’s special resonance in areas where holiday shopping traditions like Black Friday also dominate.
Which grocery chains benefit the most from Turkey Wednesday? A look at individual brands shows that traditional grocery stores – think Kroger, Albertsons, and Safeway – generally see bigger pre-Thanksgiving visit boosts than limited-assortment value chains like Aldi and Trader Joe’s. And in keeping with the regional trends noted above, some of the best-performing chains are midwestern favorites like Schnucks and Albertsons’ Jewel-Osco, which saw Turkey Wednesday foot traffic surges this year of 103.9% and 92.6%, respectively.
But numerous other chains also saw major Turkey-fueled visit increases on November 27th – including Food 4 Less, the Kroger-owned regional value chain with locations in both the Midwest and California, and East Coast brands ShopRite and Wegmans. When it comes to last-minute holiday shopping, it seems, there is plenty of room for multiple brands to thrive.
Though value-oriented grocery chains typically see smaller visit spikes on Turkey Wednesday, many budget brands are steadily growing their pre-holiday audiences.
Grocery Outlet Bargain Market and Aldi saw foot traffic rise by 13.5% and 11.2%, respectively, on November 27th, 2024 compared to last year’s Turkey Wednesday. (Both chains also saw substantial increases in the average number of visits to each of their individual locations – 9.7% and 8.4%, respectively – proving that the increase isn’t solely a result of fleet expansion.) Meanwhile, traditional grocery leaders like H-E-B, Kroger’s Ralphs, Ahold Delhaize’s Hannaford, and Albertsons’ Jewel Osco, also recorded year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic gains, highlighting robust performance across much of the sector.
Groceries are a crucial part of the Thanksgiving holiday – but liquor, it seems, may be even more indispensable. On November 27th, 2024, visits to liquor stores surged even higher than visits to grocery stores – generating a remarkable 186.4% visit spike, as consumers stocked up on spirits to ease the mood at stressful family gatherings or to show gratitude to hard-working hosts. Like for grocery stores, Turkey Wednesday was liquor stores’ busiest day of the year so far – though if last year is any indication, the run-up to Christmas will likely generate even more impressive traffic bumps.
Turkey Wednesday 2024 reaffirmed the key role played by traditional grocery stores in the run-up to Thanksgiving. And though supermarkets and liquor stores stole the spotlight, superstores and discount & dollar stores also experienced significant visit upticks – and value chains are steadily growing their pre-holiday audiences. How will these categories continue to fare throughout the rest of the holiday season?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analysis to find out.
Visits to Starbucks usually spike on its annual Red Cup Day, as patrons flock to the chain to order a specialty holiday beverage and receive a complimentary reusable red cup. But last year, the chain’s Red Cup Day performance was relatively muted – although foot traffic still got a boost, the jump was not quite as significant as in previous years. Was the promotion more effective in 2024? We dove into the data to find out.
Starbucks’ Red Cup Day came roaring back in 2024, with Thursday, November 14th – the day of the promotion – receiving 42.4% more visits than the recent Thursday daily visit average. And Red Cup Day didn’t just drive visits relative to a regular weekday – the promotion brought a 9.4% lift in overall weekly visits to Starbucks during the week of the event.
The relative visit bump was significantly higher than on Red Cup Day 2023 – when visits on Thursday, November 16th 2023 were only 25.0% higher than the previous five Thursday averages – and even outshined the already strong performance of Red Cup Day 2022.
As usual, Red Cup Day at Starbucks drove a larger visit spike than the launch of the chain’s popular Pumpkin Spice Latte (PSL): During the week of the PSL launch, visits rose 9.7% compared to the first week of H2 (July 1st-7th 2024), while Red Cup Day drove a 12.9% foot traffic bump relative to that same baseline.
Nevertheless, the recent data also indicates that the PSL remains a seasonal fan favorite – Starbucks received more weekly visits on the PSL’s arrival week than it did when it launched the holiday menu, when visits increased 6.7% relative to the beginning of H2.
This year’s Red Cup Day followed several weeks of year-over-year (YoY) visit dips at Starbucks, with weekly foot traffic between September 2nd and November 10th 2024 down an average of 4.4% YoY. But the success of the promotion – which drove YoY visit growth for the first time since August – showcases Starbucks’ expertise at driving visits by owning the calendar.
The chain has succeeded in establishing a yearly buzz around its branded cups that drive visits during what would otherwise be an off-season for the chain. And even this year, when consumers seem to be tightening their purse strings and cutting down on discretionary spending ahead of the holidays, Red Cup Day still managed to drive patrons to Starbucks stores in search of holiday beverages and free swag.
How will Starbucks perform throughout the end of 2024?
Visit placer.ai to find out.
How did leading eatertainment chains Dave & Buster’s and Chuck E. Cheese perform in Q3 2024? We dove into the data to find out.
Since January 2024, Dave & Buster’s has enjoyed mainly positive YoY visit growth, fueled in part by the eatertainment leader’s continued expansion. In Q2 and Q3 2024, visits to the chain were up 3.2% and 7.3%, respectively. And though YoY foot traffic to the chain slowed down in Q3 2024, a look at Dave & Buster’s monthly visit patterns shows that this may have been due in part to a summer visit peak that was slightly lower – but more extended – than that seen last year.
In 2023, Dave & Buster’s experienced three distinct visit spikes – in March, July, and December – with the restaurant’s 14.6% July visit boost (compared to a monthly average for Jan. ‘23 - Oct. ‘24) preceded by a relatively quiet June (+2.0%). But this year, summer foot traffic began to trend upwards earlier, with both June and July seeing substantial upticks – 13.6% and 13.4%, respectively. (June is in Q2 and so this part of the uptick would not have been included in Q3 foot traffic numbers). And though September, usually a down period for Dave & Buster’s, saw a modest drop in visitors compared to 2023, the chain’s March peak was higher than last year’s.
Digging even deeper into the data shows that even as YoY quarterly visits to Dave & Buster’s remained flat in Q3 2024, mid-week visits to the chain continued to climb. Dave & Buster’s has been investing heavily in mid-week promotions meant to drive traffic during quieter periods, and its efforts are clearly paying off. On Wednesdays, Dave & Buster’s offers a 50% discount on games – and the average number of Wednesday visits to the chain were up 7.0% YoY. Thursdays, too, saw an 11.3% YoY foot traffic increase, likely fueled by diners drawn to Thursday specials as the most intensive part of the work week wound down. (In Q3 2024, July 4th fell on a Thursday, which also generated a significant visit bump – but even when discounting the week of the holiday, Thursday visits were up 6.4% on average.)
Against the backdrop of solid seasonal peaks and impressive mid-week visitation trends, Dave & Buster’s appears poised to enjoy a robust December – another important seasonal milestone for the restaurant. And keep an eye out for the week after Christmas, traditionally Dave & Buster’s busiest week of the year: Last year, the week starting December 25th drove a 65.0% visit spike to the chain compared to a 2023 weekly average.
Speaking of promotions – Chuck E. Cheese is another eatertainment leader that has been finding success by leaning into special deals, making it easier for price-conscious consumers to treat their kids to pizza and fun.
Following a lackluster start to the year, YoY visits to Chuck E. Cheese began trending upwards in May 2024 and have remained elevated ever since. Between June and August 2024, foot traffic to Chuck E. Cheese was up between 20.1% and 26.8% compared to the equivalent period of 2023. And though the pace of visit growth began to taper in September as kids went back to school, visits remained substantially higher than last year.
What’s behind Chuck E. Cheese’s summer flourishing? A look at shifts in loyalty trends at the chain suggests that the success of this year’s Summer Fun Pass may be a big part of the story.
On average, the share of loyal visitors to Chuck E. Cheese – i.e. those frequenting the restaurant at least twice in a month – tends to range between five and seven percent. Last summer, this percentage increased to 8.1%, as parents sought out indoor activities to keep kids occupied when school was out. But this year’s summer loyalty spike – just over 12.0% in both June and July – was significantly higher.
Though Chuck E. Cheese also offered a Summer Fun Pass last year, this year’s deal provided even greater value – including unlimited visits over a two-month period, steep discounts on food, and up to 250 games per day. And the promotion was such a smashing success that Chuck E. Cheese has launched a new unlimited-visit pass meant to make frequent trips to the chain more affordable for families all year round. As the kids’ eatertainment leader continues to revamp its offerings – remodeling locations and adding new activities like indoor trampolines – Chuck E. Cheese appears poised to keep drawing the crowds.
Today’s cautious consumers are always on the lookout for ways to save – and eatertainment chains are paying attention. Will Dave & Buster’s post-Christmas visit spike outperform last year’s? And will Chuck E. Cheese’s new unlimited play model continue to drive traffic throughout Q4?
Follow Placer.ai’s data driven analyses to find out.
Note: This report is based on an analysis of visitation patterns for regional and nationwide grocery chains and does not include single-location stores.
Grocery stores, superstores, and dollar stores all carry food products – and American consumers buy groceries at all three. But even in today’s crowded food retail environment, traditional grocery chains have a special role to play. With their primary focus on stocking a wide variety of fresh foods, these chains serve a critical function in offering consumers access to healthy options.
But visualizing the footprints of major grocery chains across the continental U.S. – alongside those of discount & dollar stores – shows that the geographical distribution of grocery chains remains uneven.
In some areas, including parts of the Northeast, Midwest, South Atlantic, and Pacific regions, grocery chains are plentiful. But in others – some with population centers large enough to feature a robust dollar store presence – they remain in short supply.
And though many superstore locations also provide a full array of grocery offerings, they, too, are often sparsely represented in areas with low concentrations of grocery chains.
For grocery chain operators seeking to expand, these underserved grocery markets can present a significant opportunity. And for civic stakeholders looking to broaden access to healthy food across communities, these areas highlight a policy challenge. For both groups, identifying underserved markets with significant untapped demand can be a critical first step in deciding where to focus grocery development initiatives.
This white paper dives into the location analytics to examine grocery store availability across the United States – and harnesses these insights to explore potential demand in some underserved markets. The report focuses on locations belonging to regional or nationwide grocery chains, rather than single-location stores.
Last year, grocery chains accounted for 43.4% of nationwide visits to food retailers – including grocery chains, superstores, and discount & dollar stores. But drilling down into the data for different areas of the country reveals striking regional variation – offering a glimpse into the variability of grocery store access throughout the U.S. In some states, grocery stores attract the majority of visit share to food retailers, while in others, dollar stores or superstores dominate the scene.
The ten states where residents were most likely to visit grocery chains in early 2024 – Oregon, Vermont, Washington, Massachusetts, California, Maryland, New Hampshire, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Rhode Island – were all on the East or West Coasts. In these states, as well as in Nevada and New York, grocery chain visits accounted for 50.0% or more of food retail visits between January and April 2024.
Meanwhile, residents of many West North Central and South Central states were much less likely to do their food shopping at grocery chains. In North Dakota, for example, grocery chain visits accounted for just 11.7% of visits to food retailers over the analyzed period. And in Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, too, grocery stores drew less than 20.0% of the overall food retail foot traffic.
But low grocery store visit share does not necessarily indicate a lack of consumer interest or ability to support such stores. And in some of these underserved regions, existing grocery chains are seeing outsize visit growth – indicating growing demand for their offerings.
North Dakota, the state with the smallest share of visits going to grocery chains in early 2024, experienced a 9.1% year-over-year (YoY) increase in grocery visits during the same period – nearly double the nationwide baseline of 5.7%. Other states with low grocery visit share, including Nebraska, Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi, and New Mexico, also experienced higher-than-average YoY grocery chain visit growth. This suggests significant untapped potential for grocery stores and a market that is hungry for more.
Alabama is one state where grocery chains accounted for a relatively small share of overall food retail foot traffic in early 2024 (just 28.9%) – but where YoY visit growth outperformed the nationwide average. And digging down even further into local grocery store visitation trends provides further evidence that at least in some places, low grocery visit share may be due to inadequate supply, rather than insufficient demand.
In Central Alabama, for example, many residents drive at least 10 miles to reach a local grocery chain. And several parts of the state, both rural and urban, feature clusters of grocery stores that draw customers from relatively far away.
But zooming in on YoY visitation data for local grocery chain locations shows that at least some of these areas likely harbor untapped demand. Take for example the Camden, Butler, Thomasville, and Gilbertown areas (circled in the map above). The Piggly Wiggly location in Butler, AL, drew 40.1% of visits from 10 or more miles away. The same store experienced a 23.3% YoY increase in visits in early 2024 – far above the statewide baseline of 6.6%. Meanwhile, the Super Foods location in Thomasville, AL, which drew 52.8% of visits from at least 10 miles away – experienced YoY visit growth of 12.3%. The Piggly Wiggly locations in Camden, AL and Gilbertown, AL saw similar trends.
At the same time, trade area analysis of the four locations reveals that the grocery stores had little to no trade area overlap during the analyzed period. Each store served specific areas, with minimal cannibalization among customer bases.
These metrics appear to highlight robust demand for grocery stores in the region – grocery visits are growing at a stronger rate than those in the overall state, people are willing to make the drive to these stores, and each one has little to no competition from the others.
While significant opportunity exists across the country, many communities still face considerable challenges in supporting large grocery stores. Though South Carolina has a significant number of grocery chain locations, for example, certain areas within the state have low access to food shopping opportunities. And one local government – Greenville County – is considering offering tax breaks to grocery stores that set up shop in the area, to improve local fresh food accessibility.
Placer.ai migration and visitation data shows that Greenville County is ripe for such initiatives: the county’s population grew by 4.8% over the past four years – with much of that increase a result of positive net migration. And YoY visits to Greenville County Grocery Stores have consistently outperformed state averages: In April 2024, grocery visits in the county grew by 6.1% YoY, while overall visits to grocery stores in South Carolina grew by 4.2%. This growth – both in terms of grocery visits and population – points to rising demand for grocery stores in Greenville County.
Analyzing the Greenville County grocery store trade areas with Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph dataset – which looks at the social media activity of a given audience – offers further insight into local grocery shoppers’ particular demand and preferences.
Consumers in Greenville-area grocery store trade areas, for example, are more likely to be interested in “Mid-Range Grocery Stores” (including brands like Aldi, Kroger, and Lidl) than residents of grocery store trade areas in the state as a whole. This metric provides further evidence of local demand for grocery chains – and offers a glimpse into the kinds of specific grocery offerings likely to succeed in the area.
Grocery stores remain essential services for many consumers, providing a place to pick up fresh produce, meat, and other healthy food options. And many areas in the country are ripe for expansion, with eager customer bases and growing demand. Identifying such areas with location analytics can help both grocery store operators and municipal stakeholders provide their communities and customer bases with an enhanced grocery shopping experience that caters to local preferences.
Following COVID-era highs, domestic migration levels have begun to taper off – with the number of Americans moving within the U.S. hitting an all-time low, according to some sources, in 2023.
To be sure, some popular COVID-era destinations – including Idaho, the Carolinas, and Utah – saw their net domestic migration continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace. But other states which had been relocation hotspots between February 2020 and February 2023, such as Wyoming and Texas, experienced negative net migration between February 2023 and February 2024.
Analyzing CBSA-level migration data reveals differences and similarities between last year’s migration patterns and COVID-era trends.
Between February 2020 and February 2023, seven out of the ten CBSAs posting the largest population increases due to inbound domestic migration were located in Florida. But between February 2023 and February 2024, the top 10 CBSAs with the largest net migrated percent of the population were significantly more diverse. Only four out of the ten CBSAs were located in Florida, and several new metro areas – including Provo-Orem, UT, Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA, and Boulder, CO – joined the list.
This white paper leverages a variety of location intelligence tools – including Placer.ai’s Migration Report, Niche Neighborhood Grades, and ACS Census Data location intelligence – to analyze two migration hotspots. Specifically, the report focuses on Daytona Beach, FL, which already appeared on the February 2020 to February 2023 list and has continued to see steady growth, and Boulder, CO, which has emerged as a new top destination. The data highlights the potential of CBSAs with unique value propositions to continue to attract newcomers despite ongoing housing headwinds.
The Boulder, CO CBSA has emerged as a domestic migration hotspot: The net influx of population between February 2023 and February 2024 (i.e. the total number of people that moved to Boulder from elsewhere in the U.S., minus those that left) constituted 3.1% of the CBSA’s February 2024 population.
The strong migration is partially due to the University of Colorado, Boulder’s growing popularity. But the metro area has also emerged as a flourishing tech hub, with Google, Apple, and Amazon all setting up shop in town, along with a wealth of smaller start ups.
Most domestic relocators tend to remain within state lines – so unsurprisingly, many of the recent newcomers to Boulder moved from other CBSAs in Colorado. But perhaps due to Boulder’s robust tech ecosystem, many of the new residents also came from Los Angeles, CA (6.6%) and San Francisco, CA (3.4%) – other CBSAs known for their thriving tech scenes.
At the same time, looking at the other CBSAs feeding migration to the area indicates that tech is likely not the only draw attracting people to Boulder: A significant share of relocators came from the CBSAs of Chicago, IL (6.1%), Dallas , TX (4.9%), and New York, NY (3.9%). The move from these relatively urbanized CBSAs to scenic Boulder indicates that some of the domestic migration to the area is likely driven by people looking for better access to nature or a general lifestyle change.
According to the U.S. News & World Report, Boulder ranked in second place in terms of U.S. cities with the best quality of life. Using Niche Neighborhood Grades to compare quality of life attributes in the Boulder CBSA and in the areas of origin dataset highlights some of the draw factors attracting newcomers to Boulder beyond the thriving tech scene.
The Boulder CBSA ranked higher than the metro areas of origin for “Public Schools,” “Health & Fitness,” “Fit for Families,” and “Access to Outdoor Activities.” These migration draw factors are likely helping Boulder attract more senior executives alongside younger tech workers – and can also explain why relocators from more urban metro areas may be choosing to make Boulder their home.
Boulder’s strong inbound migration numbers over the past year – likely driven by its flourishing tech scene and beautiful natural surroundings – reveal the growth potential of certain CBSAs regardless of wider housing market headwinds.
Florida experienced a population boom during the pandemic, and several CBSAs in the state – including the Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL CBSA – have continued to welcome domestic relocators in high numbers. The CBSA’s anchor city, Daytona Beach – known for its Bike Week and NASCAR’s Daytona 500 – has also seen positive net migration between February 2023 and February 2024.
Americans planning for retirement or retirees operating on a fixed income are likely particularly interested in optimizing their living expenses. And given Daytona’s relative affordability, it’s no surprise that the median age in the areas of origin feeding migration to Daytona Beach tends to be on the older side.
According to the 2021 Census ACS 5-Year Projection data, the median age in Daytona Beach was 39.0. Meanwhile, the weighted median age in the areas of migration origin was 42.6, indicating that those moving to Daytona Beach may be older than the current residents of the city.
Zooming into the migration data on a zip code level also highlights Daytona Beach’s appeal to older Americans: The zip code welcoming the highest rates of domestic migration was 32124, home to both Jimmy Buffet’s Latitude Margaritaville’s 55+ community and the LPGA International Golf Club, host of the LPGA Tour. The median age in this zip code is also older than in Daytona Beach as a whole, and the weighted age in the zip codes of origin was even higher – suggesting that older Americans and retirees may be driving much of the migration to the area.
Looking at the migration draw factors for Daytona Beach also suggests that the city is particularly appealing to retirees, with the city scoring an A grade for its “Fit for Retirees.” But the city of Daytona Beach is also an attractive destination for anyone looking to elevate their leisure time, with the city scoring higher than Daytona Beach’s cities of migration origin for “Weather,” “Access to Restaurants,” or “Access to Nightlife.”
Like Boulder, Daytona’s scenery – including its famous beaches – is likely attracting newcomers looking to spend more time outdoors and improve their work-life balance. And like Boulder and its tech scene, Daytona Beach also has an extra pull factor – its affordability and fit for older Americans – that is likely helping the area continue to attract new residents, even as domestic migration slows down nationwide.
Although the overall pace of domestic migration has slowed, analyzing location intelligence data reveals several migration hotspots amidst the overall cooldown. Boulder and Daytona Beach each have a set of unique draw factors that seem to attract different populations – and the success of these regions highlights the many paths to migration growth in 2024.
The Fitness industry was a major post-pandemic winner. Visits to gyms across the country surged as stay-at-home orders ended and people returned to their in-person workout routines. And even as consumers reduced discretionary spending in the face of inflation, they kept going to the gym – finding room in their budgets for the chance to embrace wellness and get in shape while interacting with other people.
But no category can sustain such unabated growth forever – and as the segment inevitably stabilizes, gyms will need to stay nimble on their feet to maintain their competitive edge.
This white paper takes a closer look at the state of Fitness as the category transitions into a more stable growth phase following two years of outsize post-pandemic demand. The report digs into the location analytics to reveal how the Fitness space has changed – and what strategies gyms can adopt to stay ahead of the pack.
*This report excludes locations within Washington state due to local legislation.
Monthly visits to the Fitness category have grown consistently year over year (YoY) since early 2022, when COVID subsided and gyms returned to full capacity. And the segment is still doing remarkably well. Even in January and March 2024 – when visits were curtailed by an Arctic blast and by the Easter holiday weekend – YoY Fitness visits remained positive, despite the comparison to an already strong 2023.
Still, recent months have seen smaller YoY increases than last year, indicating that the Fitness category is entering a more normalized growth phase.
By keeping a close watch on evolving consumer preferences, fitness chains can uncover new opportunities for growth and adaptation within a stabilizing market – including leaning into increasingly popular dayparts.
Examining the evolving distribution of gym visits by daypart over the past six years shows that major shifts were brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Between Q1 2019 and Q1 2021, as remote work took hold, gyms saw their share of 2:00 PM - 5:00 PM visits increase from 15.8% to 18.6%. Though this trend partially reversed as the pandemic receded, afternoon visits remained elevated in Q1 2024 compared to pre-COVID – likely a reflection of hybrid work patterns that leave people free to take an exercise break during their workdays.
At the same time, the share of morning visits to fitness chains (between 8:00 AM and 11:00 AM) dropped from 20.5% in Q1 2019 to 17.2% in Q1 2024, while evening visits (between 8:00 PM and 11:00 PM) increased from 11.3% to 13.2%.
Gyms that recognize this changing behavior can adapt to new workout preferences – whether by incentivizing morning visits, scheduling popular classes mid-afternoon, or offering extended evening hours.
In fact, the data indicates that gyms that are leaning into the evening workout trend are already finding success: Of the top 12 most-visited gym chains in the country, those that saw bigger increases in their shares of evening visits also tended to see greater YoY visit growth.
EōS Fitness and Crunch Fitness, for example, have seen their shares of evening visits grow by 5.5% and 3.4%, respectively, since COVID – and in Q1 2024, their YoY visits grew by 29.0% and 21.8%, respectively. Other chains, including 24 Hour Fitness and Chuze Fitness, experienced similar shifts in visit patterns. At the same time, LA Fitness saw just a minor increase in its share of evening visits between Q1 2019 and Q1 2024, and a correspondingly small increase in YoY visits.
As the evening workout slot gains popularity, gym operators that can adapt to these new trends and encourage evening visits may see significant benefits in the years to come.
Diving into demographic data for the analyzed gym chains sheds light on some factors that may be driving this heightened preference for evening workouts at top-performing gyms.
The four fitness chains that experienced the greatest YoY visit boosts in Q1 – Crunch Fitness, EōS Fitness, 24 Hour Fitness, and Chuze Fitness – all featured trade areas with significantly higher-than-average shares of Young Professionals and Non-Family Households. (STI: PopStat’s Non-Family Household segment includes households with more than one person not defined as family members. Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s Young Professional consumer segment includes young professionals starting their careers in white collar or technical jobs.)
In plainer terms, these consumer segments – typically young, well-educated, and without children – and therefore more likely to be flexible in their workout times – are driving visits to some of the best-performing gyms across the country. And these audiences seem to be displaying a preference for nighttime sweat sessions – a factor that gyms can take into account when planning programming and marketing efforts.
Leaning into emerging gym visitation patterns is one way for fitness chains to thrive in 2024 – but it isn’t the only marker of success for the segment. Even after years of visit growth, the market remains open to new opportunities and innovations that meet health-conscious consumers where they are.
STRIDE Fitness, a gym that offers treadmill-based interval training, has sparked a trend among running enthusiasts. This niche player is finding success, particularly among a specific demographic: runners and endurance training enthusiasts.
Between January and April 2024, monthly YoY visits to STRIDE Fitness consistently outperformed the wider Fitness space. A standout month was January, when STRIDE Fitness’s visits soared by an impressive 33.6% YoY, surpassing the industry average of 5.7% for the same period.
Psychographic data from the Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph dataset – which looks at the social media activity of a given audience – suggests that STRIDE Fitness’ trade areas are well-positioned to attract those visitors most open to its offerings. Residents of STRIDE Fitness’s potential market are 24% more likely to be, or to be interested in, Endurance Athletes than the nationwide average – compared to just 3% for the Fitness industry as a whole. Similar patterns emerge for Marathon Runners and Triathlon Participants. This indicates that the chain is well-situated near consumers with a passion for endurance sports and long distance running, helping it maintain a competitive edge in the crowded gym market.
Pickleball, a game that blends elements of tennis, ping pong, and badminton, is the fastest-growing sport in the country. And recognizing its broad appeal, some fitness chains have begun incorporating pickleball courts into their facilities.
Arizona-based EōS Fitness added a pickleball court at a Phoenix, AZ location – and early 2024 data highlights the impact of this addition. Between January and April 2024, the location drew between 9.1% and 33.3% more monthly visits than the chain’s Arizona visit-per-location average.
And analyzing the demographic profile of the chain’s location with a pickleball court reinforces the game’s increasingly wide appeal. Young consumer segments have been embracing the game in large numbers – and the Phoenix EōS Fitness location’s potential market includes a significantly higher share of 18 to 34-year-olds than the chain’s overall Arizona potential market. Residents of the pickleball location’s trade area are also less affluent than the chain’s Arizona average.
Pickleball has typically been associated with more affluent consumer segments, and it seems like this may be shifting. With more people than ever embracing the game, gyms that choose to add courts to their facilities may reap the foot traffic benefits.
The Fitness industry has undergone a significant transformation since COVID-19. The category’s outsize post-pandemic visit growth has begun to stabilize, and gyms are staying ahead by adapting to changing consumer preferences. Evenings are emerging as crucial dayparts for gym operators, likely driven by younger consumer segments. And niche fitness chains are seeing visit success, proving that there are plenty of ways for the Fitness segment to succeed.
