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Off-price apparel chains are entering the holidays from a position of strength. In a year defined by elevated prices and economic uncertainty, many consumers are trading down to value-driven retailers, and treasure-hunt favorites like TJX, Burlington, and Ross Dress for Less are reaping the rewards.
Between July and October 2025, TJX’s HomeGoods division (HomeGoods + Homesense) saw year-over-year visit growth ranging from 5.6% to 14.3%, while Marmaxx (T.J. Maxx + Marshalls + Sierra) climbed 6.3% to 10.8%. These strong traffic gains align with TJX’s most recent quarterly report, where comparable sales rose and transaction volumes increased across every division.
Burlington also maintained its upward trajectory following a strong Q2 FY25 earnings beat that included 5% comp sales growth. And Ross, which reported a 2% comp sales increase last quarter, saw visits trend strongly upward through late summer and early fall – a welcome sign following its withdrawal of full-year guidance earlier this year amid tariff uncertainty.
Visitation trends from last year’s holiday season show just how important this period is for off-price retailers – while Black Friday doesn't tend to bring the massive visit spikes seen at other apparel chains, the holidays are still a significant time for the segment.
In December 2024, visits to Burlington surged 62.5% above the chain’s full-year monthly average, while T.J. Maxx and Marshalls saw increases of 54.0% and 53.4%, respectively. Ross posted a more modest 38.3% increase, but still outperformed the broader non-off-price apparel segment. Meanwhile, HomeGoods and Homesense also exceeded the wider home-furnishings category’s December benchmarks.
This outperformance likely stems in part from off-price retailers’ limited e-commerce presence – with Burlington and Ross operating entirely offline and TJX maintaining only a small digital footprint across select banners. But it also reflects the ongoing strength of a category that gives shoppers a low-cost, high-delight way to browse and indulge during the holiday season.
All signs point to a standout season for off-price giants like TJX, Burlington, and Ross – but just how high can their holiday cheer climb this year?
Follow Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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If you grew up in the 1980s or 1990s, the idea of a milkman was more folklore than lived experience. You saw it in cartoons or black-and-white sitcoms – a man in uniform carrying glass bottles to a doorstep. It felt like a relic of a bygone era. Surely it would never return.
Fast forward to today, and not only is milk back on the doorstep, but so is everything else in your refrigerator. Technology has made it seamless to order groceries, household essentials, and even ready-to-cook meals, delivered daily with a few taps on your phone. The milkman is back – he just drives an Instacart-branded Prius or an Amazon Fresh van.
This isn’t nostalgia. It’s a cycle. Technology often appears to propel us forward, but in reality, it bends us back to practices we once thought obsolete. The form changes, but the function remains strikingly familiar.
Take grocery delivery. In the 1950s, home delivery was a necessity – fewer households had multiple cars, and local dairies were tightly woven into community life. Today, we have more cars than ever, but also less time. Digital platforms fill that gap, mirroring the personal convenience of the past while scaling it through logistics and data.
Another example comes from the general store. In the 1820s, shopping meant telling an attendant what you wanted, who then gathered items from the back. It wasn’t until the early 1900s that “self-service” emerged, with baskets, aisles, and eventually barcodes.
We now find ourselves swinging back with Buy Online, Pick Up In-Store (BOPIS) and curbside services that mimic that early model: Customers order in advance, then pick up a neatly packed bag from the counter. The shopper no longer roams aisles – the retailer does it for them.
And this is borne out by data: Placer.ai data on Target, Walmart, and Kroger shows spikes in short-duration visits – customers spending less than 10 minutes inside. That is the digital general store in action: efficient, pre-bundled, and familiar in its service, though powered by algorithms instead of store clerks.
Urban planning, too, is entering a similar loop. America’s postwar suburbs were built for cars – seas of parking lots, wide arterials, and drive-through convenience. Yet when you walk in the old towns of Europe – San Sebastián, Florence, Prague – the scale is human, not automotive. Streets are narrow, plazas are alive, and walkability is the default.
Autonomous vehicles may bend us back toward that human-centric design. If fewer people need to own cars, or if vehicles can drop off passengers and then disappear into shared fleets, parking loses its primacy. The city grid can prioritize people again.
For retail, this shift is profound. Shopping centers that once maximized asphalt for parking may repurpose land for dining, green space, or entertainment. Placer.ai’s visitation metrics already show the power of “experience-first” environments: centers with strong dining and social elements draw visitors who stay longer and come more often.
Education is another domain where technology is looping us back. A century ago, one-room schoolhouses educated children ages 6 to 16 under a single teacher, with individualized pacing as much as possible. Then industrialized schooling standardized the process – grade levels, subject blocks, and centralized curricula.
Artificial Intelligence could return us to the one-room model, but at scale. A teacher might become less of a “lecturer” and more of a coach in learning. AI tutors can adapt to each child’s needs, while the teacher provides human guidance, empathy, and context. It’s both cutting-edge and old-fashioned: personal learning, locally grounded, supported by technology rather than limited by it.
Perhaps the most intriguing cycle will be around authenticity. Global commerce has delivered incredible convenience, but also a flattening of experience. Walk down a high street in London, São Paulo, or Bangkok, and you’ll find the same Starbucks, H&M, and McDonald’s.
Even shops that feel “local” often sell merchandise sourced from the same global factories. Authenticity has become scarce – and scarcity, as any economist will tell you, creates value.
Placer.ai’s data often highlights how unique, local experiences can outperform national chains. Look at the night markets in Asia, where a single fried chicken vendor with a 50-year tradition can attract lines that rival global QSR brands. Or U.S. examples like Franklin Barbecue in Austin, Joe’s Pizza in New York – or even entertainment-focused Casa Bonita in Lakewood, CO, where one location is enough to generate pilgrimage-level demand.
The lesson for retail landlords is clear: the future is not only about digital convenience but also about curating hyper-local authenticity. A shopping center that balances national anchors with unique regional tenants can capture both predictability and excitement.
Placer.ai location analytics underscore this trend. Centers with a strong mix of “only-here” brands often see stronger visitation and longer dwell times. Customers aren’t just coming for errands – they’re coming for identity and discovery.
Brands that cater to local tastes are also succeeding, driving loyalty and repeat visits. Barnes & Noble, for example, has made a remarkable comeback with a strategy focused on local curation and community connection, eschewing the cookie-cutter feel of many national chains. Store managers now have the freedom to shape selections around neighborhood interests from regional authors to niche genres – creating spaces that feel personal rather than programmed. In an age dominated by algorithms, this human touch has become a competitive advantage.
So, what does all this mean for the future of shopping centers? It means history is not linear. Technology doesn’t only push us forward; it often bends us back to models we once knew, reshaped to fit today’s context.
The milkman is now a grocery delivery app. The general store clerk is now BOPIS. The European plaza is reborn through autonomous vehicles. The one-room schoolhouse reappears through AI tutors. And authenticity – once assumed, now rare – is becoming the most valuable commodity in commerce.
As landlords and investors, the opportunity is to recognize these patterns early. Instead of asking, “What’s new?” we might ask, “What’s old that technology will make new again?”
Where are people choosing speed over browsing? Where are they trading scale for authenticity? Where are they staying longer because the environment is built for people, not cars?
These are not just data points. They are clues to the future – a future that looks surprisingly familiar.
For more data-driven retail insights, follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Grocery stores aren’t usually top of mind when it comes to holiday retail. But as families prepare for their annual feasts, supermarkets gear up for their busiest stretch of the year – a season marked by crowded aisles, overflowing carts, and soaring sales.
How do grocery stores and other food-at-home purveyors, from superstores to dollar stores, experience the holidays? Is “Turkey Wednesday” – the day before Thanksgiving – the only key milestone that matters, or are there other moments that drive performance? And which segments and brands stand to benefit most this season?
Thanksgiving is about gratitude and family – but it’s also about good food. And as families prepare their feasts, grocery stores nationwide buzz with activity.
During Turkey Wednesday last year, grocery store visits soared 74.5% above the daily average, making it the busiest day of the past 12 months for the category – followed by December 23rd and Christmas Eve. Other food-at-home retailers, such as dollar stores and superstores, also experienced elevated traffic before Thanksgiving, but their largest surges came in the lead-up to Christmas, as shoppers stocked up on gifts, decorations, and non-food essentials alongside their groceries.
The contrast underscores how deeply Thanksgiving belongs to grocery retail. When the meal itself is the main event, consumers prioritize fresh ingredients, pantry staples, and those all-important last-minute items – areas where supermarkets lead the charge. But the data also shows there’s plenty of room for multiple formats to shine during the season, with each experiencing its own distinct holiday peak.
Within the grocery industry, Black Friday and December 23rd stand out as the two busiest shopping days of the year across segments, though the intensity of the surges varies.
Traditional supermarkets – think Kroger, Safeway, and H-E-B – dominate the pre-thanksgiving rush, as shoppers on the hunt for holiday-specific items gravitate towards their broader assortments. In 2024, visits to this segment jumped 77.9% above a 12-month daily average on Turkey Wednesday, with a smaller uptick on the day before Christmas Eve. Value grocers followed a similar trajectory, though with more modest boosts.
Meanwhile, specialty and fresh-format grocers reached their traffic peak on December 23rd, reflecting their focus on premium, seasonal, and gift-oriented products that align more with December entertaining and gifting than with Thanksgiving meal prep.
Still, within grocery segments there remains significant variation between brands. ShopRite saw one of the biggest Turkey Wednesday spikes last year, with visits nearly doubling compared to the daily average. Kroger and Food Lion also outperformed the traditional grocery average.
Meijer, by contrast, followed a different rhythm. As a supercenter hybrid that straddles grocery and general merchandise, its biggest surge came not before Thanksgiving but in the days before Christmas, mirroring broader patterns for stores that serve “everything under one roof” missions.
Trader Joe’s also peaked closer to Christmas, though its busiest day of the past year was May 10th 2025, when the chain’s seasonal line-up of flowers, sweets, and small gift items helped drive an 82.1% jump in visits ahead of Mother’s Day. The pattern reflects Trader Joe’s focus on curated staples and seasonal specialties rather than the wide selections typical of larger supermarkets.
As Thanksgiving approaches, traditional grocers once again look poised to dominate Turkey Wednesday, while value, specialty, superstore, and dollar store formats each find their own seasonal spotlights. How will shopping patterns play out across these segments this year?
Follow Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
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After a relatively subdued summer performance, malls rebounded sharply in October 2025, with foot traffic to indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls rising significantly both year over year (YoY) and month over month (MoM). What does this mean for the upcoming holiday season? Read on to find out.
All mall formats saw clear YoY visit gains in October 2025, potentially signaling renewed consumer enthusiasm heading into the holiday season. And although indoor malls led the growth – continuing their strong performance throughout 2025 – open-air shopping centers and outlet malls also returned to positive territory after four consecutive months of declines, underscoring the breadth and strength of the October recovery.
The MoM data underscores the scale of this recovery. In October 2025, visits rose sharply compared to September 2025 – up 6.1% for Indoor Malls, 5.5% for Open-Air Shopping Centers, and 7.9% for Outlet Malls. In comparison, October 2024 saw only slight MoM increases of 0.5%, 2.1%, and 1.4%, respectively, compared to September 2024.
While the YoY data shows steady improvement in overall mall traffic, this month-over-month jump reveals a meaningful change in consumer behavior. Rather than waiting for November’s traditional start to the holiday season, shoppers appear to be hitting stores earlier and in greater numbers, making October a much more significant month for retail activity than it was last year.
The standout performance of outlet malls in particular reinforces consumer interest in value and discounts. As households remain price-sensitive, outlet centers continue to benefit from their combination of recognizable brands and lower price points.
October’s surge suggests that the 2025 holiday shopping season may be starting earlier and spreading out more evenly than in previous years. Recent research shows that many U.S. consumers plan to start their holiday shopping sooner, driven by concerns over rising prices and a desire for better product selection. Retailers are responding with expanded October promotions that pull forward demand.
At the same time, shoppers remain highly value-driven, with most saying inflation has made them more price-conscious. That dynamic likely helped fuel outlet malls’ nearly 8% MoM increase, as consumers sought recognizable brands at lower prices.
Together, these trends suggest that consumers are approaching the 2025 holiday season with more intention – shopping earlier, seeking value, and spreading spending over a longer period. For malls, that could mean a steadier flow of visits throughout Q4, rather than the sharp peaks of prior years.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Each year, Starbucks drives excitement with its seasonal launches – from PSL Day, marking the return of the popular Pumpkin Spice Latte, to Red Cup Day in November, when customers can snag a free reusable cup with any beverage purchase.
But this year, Starbucks kicked off the holiday season with an even bigger event – the launch of a $29.95 bear-shaped glass that broke the internet and sent fans into a frenzy. How did the Bearista craze impact Starbucks visitation trends – and what can we learn from its standout success?
On November 6th, the day of the Bearista launch, visits to Starbucks jumped 37.8% above the last 12 months' daily average, outpacing even the brand’s successful August PSL debut. (The Friday following the PSL launch drove a 23.1% spike in visits compared to the daily visit average over the last 12 months.) Even after the initial rush, traffic remained elevated for several days as fans hunted for remaining inventory and social media buzzed with stories of sellouts. The buzz wasn’t just big; it was lasting.
And despite its hefty price tag, the Bearista Cup drop drove a traffic boost similar to last year’s Red Cup Day boost, when the promise of a free cup drove a 40.7% surge in visits compared to an average Thursday. While the Bearista spike was slightly smaller, its momentum endured for days as excitement – and anxiety over scarcity – continued to build.
People lining up to pay $30 for a bear-shaped glass – albeit a super cute one – wasn’t on anyone’s bingo card this year. So what can we learn from the event’s smashing success?
For one thing, even in an era of trading down, consumers are still willing to splurge on items that feel special – especially those that offer a sense of belonging to a cultural moment. Value matters, but it isn’t everything.
For another, not everything needs to be free or deeply discounted to draw major crowds. The Bearista proved that creativity and emotion can rival even the most generous giveaways.
And finally, scarcity (still) sells. The hype was so intense that fights broke out at some stores and eBay resales topped $1,000 – prompting Starbucks to apologize to disappointed fans and promise more holiday merch on the way.
With Red Cup Day just around the corner, will the Bearista momentum help drive an even bigger visit spike this year?
Follow Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
As the 2025 holiday season approaches, several retail categories are showing surprising resilience – from luxury home goods to consumer electronics and grocery. Despite a challenging economic backdrop, a few standout brands are not only holding steady but gaining meaningful traction through smart expansion, effective online-offline integration, and compelling value offerings.
Framebridge, Best Buy, and ALDI each represent a distinct facet of the retail landscape, but they have one thing in common: strong visitation trends heading into the year’s most critical shopping period.
Framebridge has emerged as one of 2025’s standout retail success stories. Over the past 12 months, visits to the brand have climbed 108.8% year over year (YoY) as it rapidly expanded its footprint and deepened its connection with customers.
This momentum stems from Framebridge’s ability to deliver an in-store experience that online competitors simply can’t replicate. Shoppers are invited to see and feel materials firsthand, while design experts offer personalized guidance and creative inspiration to craft meaningful, high-quality pieces. The result is a shopping experience that feels personal, tactile, and memorable – transforming framing from a routine purchase into something experiential and human.
In 2025, Framebridge brought this approach to new audiences with its first stores in California, marking its West Coast debut. And as the chain has expanded, its customer base has grown more affluent: the median household income in Framebridge’s captured market rose from $127.7K in early 2024 to $141.8K by mid-2025, while average household size also increased. Together, these shifts reflect rising resonance among higher-income, family-oriented consumers who value personalization, design, and craftsmanship – leaving the brand well positioned for a strong season of meaningful gift giving.
Not long ago, many analysts were skeptical about Best Buy’s prospects. The electronics retailer was viewed as vulnerable in a tightening consumer environment, with lingering doubts about its ability to stay relevant amid e-commerce dominance and fast-changing tech trends. But recent data suggests that Best Buy is regaining momentum – and that its strategy to blend digital convenience with in-store expertise is beginning to deliver results.
Between November 2024 and October 2025, foot traffic to Best Buy declined just 1.7% YoY, an impressive result given ongoing store closures and the continued expansion of its online business. At the same time, a steady rise in short in-store visits highlights the success of Best Buy’s online-to-offline integration. And though tariff uncertainty continues to loom, Best Buy’s balanced approach leaves it poised to enjoy a successful Q4 – traditionally Best Buy’s strongest period of the year.
In the grocery sector, few brands are gaining momentum like ALDI – the no-frills discount grocer that continues to attract shoppers with its focus on simplicity, savings, and quality. Over the past several years, ALDI has sustained consistent visit growth while expanding its store network. And during the same period, the brand’s share of total industry visits has risen from 4.3% in 2022 to 5.7% in 2025 to date, underscoring its growing influence as a leading value-driven grocery chain.
As “Turkey Wednesday” and the pre-Christmas grocery rush approach, ALDI appears set to capture an even greater share of holiday traffic. With strong visitation trends, expanding market reach, and a clear value proposition, the retailer stands out as one of 2025’s most resilient performers.
Framebridge, Best Buy, and ALDI demonstrate that experience, convenience, and value remain key drivers of retail performance. By focusing on what draws shoppers into stores, these brands are paving the way for a robust holiday season.
For the most up-to-date retail data, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Note: This report is based on an analysis of visitation patterns for regional and nationwide grocery chains and does not include single-location stores.
Grocery stores, superstores, and dollar stores all carry food products – and American consumers buy groceries at all three. But even in today’s crowded food retail environment, traditional grocery chains have a special role to play. With their primary focus on stocking a wide variety of fresh foods, these chains serve a critical function in offering consumers access to healthy options.
But visualizing the footprints of major grocery chains across the continental U.S. – alongside those of discount & dollar stores – shows that the geographical distribution of grocery chains remains uneven.
In some areas, including parts of the Northeast, Midwest, South Atlantic, and Pacific regions, grocery chains are plentiful. But in others – some with population centers large enough to feature a robust dollar store presence – they remain in short supply.
And though many superstore locations also provide a full array of grocery offerings, they, too, are often sparsely represented in areas with low concentrations of grocery chains.
For grocery chain operators seeking to expand, these underserved grocery markets can present a significant opportunity. And for civic stakeholders looking to broaden access to healthy food across communities, these areas highlight a policy challenge. For both groups, identifying underserved markets with significant untapped demand can be a critical first step in deciding where to focus grocery development initiatives.
This white paper dives into the location analytics to examine grocery store availability across the United States – and harnesses these insights to explore potential demand in some underserved markets. The report focuses on locations belonging to regional or nationwide grocery chains, rather than single-location stores.
Last year, grocery chains accounted for 43.4% of nationwide visits to food retailers – including grocery chains, superstores, and discount & dollar stores. But drilling down into the data for different areas of the country reveals striking regional variation – offering a glimpse into the variability of grocery store access throughout the U.S. In some states, grocery stores attract the majority of visit share to food retailers, while in others, dollar stores or superstores dominate the scene.
The ten states where residents were most likely to visit grocery chains in early 2024 – Oregon, Vermont, Washington, Massachusetts, California, Maryland, New Hampshire, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Rhode Island – were all on the East or West Coasts. In these states, as well as in Nevada and New York, grocery chain visits accounted for 50.0% or more of food retail visits between January and April 2024.
Meanwhile, residents of many West North Central and South Central states were much less likely to do their food shopping at grocery chains. In North Dakota, for example, grocery chain visits accounted for just 11.7% of visits to food retailers over the analyzed period. And in Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, too, grocery stores drew less than 20.0% of the overall food retail foot traffic.
But low grocery store visit share does not necessarily indicate a lack of consumer interest or ability to support such stores. And in some of these underserved regions, existing grocery chains are seeing outsize visit growth – indicating growing demand for their offerings.
North Dakota, the state with the smallest share of visits going to grocery chains in early 2024, experienced a 9.1% year-over-year (YoY) increase in grocery visits during the same period – nearly double the nationwide baseline of 5.7%. Other states with low grocery visit share, including Nebraska, Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi, and New Mexico, also experienced higher-than-average YoY grocery chain visit growth. This suggests significant untapped potential for grocery stores and a market that is hungry for more.
Alabama is one state where grocery chains accounted for a relatively small share of overall food retail foot traffic in early 2024 (just 28.9%) – but where YoY visit growth outperformed the nationwide average. And digging down even further into local grocery store visitation trends provides further evidence that at least in some places, low grocery visit share may be due to inadequate supply, rather than insufficient demand.
In Central Alabama, for example, many residents drive at least 10 miles to reach a local grocery chain. And several parts of the state, both rural and urban, feature clusters of grocery stores that draw customers from relatively far away.
But zooming in on YoY visitation data for local grocery chain locations shows that at least some of these areas likely harbor untapped demand. Take for example the Camden, Butler, Thomasville, and Gilbertown areas (circled in the map above). The Piggly Wiggly location in Butler, AL, drew 40.1% of visits from 10 or more miles away. The same store experienced a 23.3% YoY increase in visits in early 2024 – far above the statewide baseline of 6.6%. Meanwhile, the Super Foods location in Thomasville, AL, which drew 52.8% of visits from at least 10 miles away – experienced YoY visit growth of 12.3%. The Piggly Wiggly locations in Camden, AL and Gilbertown, AL saw similar trends.
At the same time, trade area analysis of the four locations reveals that the grocery stores had little to no trade area overlap during the analyzed period. Each store served specific areas, with minimal cannibalization among customer bases.
These metrics appear to highlight robust demand for grocery stores in the region – grocery visits are growing at a stronger rate than those in the overall state, people are willing to make the drive to these stores, and each one has little to no competition from the others.
While significant opportunity exists across the country, many communities still face considerable challenges in supporting large grocery stores. Though South Carolina has a significant number of grocery chain locations, for example, certain areas within the state have low access to food shopping opportunities. And one local government – Greenville County – is considering offering tax breaks to grocery stores that set up shop in the area, to improve local fresh food accessibility.
Placer.ai migration and visitation data shows that Greenville County is ripe for such initiatives: the county’s population grew by 4.8% over the past four years – with much of that increase a result of positive net migration. And YoY visits to Greenville County Grocery Stores have consistently outperformed state averages: In April 2024, grocery visits in the county grew by 6.1% YoY, while overall visits to grocery stores in South Carolina grew by 4.2%. This growth – both in terms of grocery visits and population – points to rising demand for grocery stores in Greenville County.
Analyzing the Greenville County grocery store trade areas with Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph dataset – which looks at the social media activity of a given audience – offers further insight into local grocery shoppers’ particular demand and preferences.
Consumers in Greenville-area grocery store trade areas, for example, are more likely to be interested in “Mid-Range Grocery Stores” (including brands like Aldi, Kroger, and Lidl) than residents of grocery store trade areas in the state as a whole. This metric provides further evidence of local demand for grocery chains – and offers a glimpse into the kinds of specific grocery offerings likely to succeed in the area.
Grocery stores remain essential services for many consumers, providing a place to pick up fresh produce, meat, and other healthy food options. And many areas in the country are ripe for expansion, with eager customer bases and growing demand. Identifying such areas with location analytics can help both grocery store operators and municipal stakeholders provide their communities and customer bases with an enhanced grocery shopping experience that caters to local preferences.
Following COVID-era highs, domestic migration levels have begun to taper off – with the number of Americans moving within the U.S. hitting an all-time low, according to some sources, in 2023.
To be sure, some popular COVID-era destinations – including Idaho, the Carolinas, and Utah – saw their net domestic migration continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace. But other states which had been relocation hotspots between February 2020 and February 2023, such as Wyoming and Texas, experienced negative net migration between February 2023 and February 2024.
Analyzing CBSA-level migration data reveals differences and similarities between last year’s migration patterns and COVID-era trends.
Between February 2020 and February 2023, seven out of the ten CBSAs posting the largest population increases due to inbound domestic migration were located in Florida. But between February 2023 and February 2024, the top 10 CBSAs with the largest net migrated percent of the population were significantly more diverse. Only four out of the ten CBSAs were located in Florida, and several new metro areas – including Provo-Orem, UT, Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA, and Boulder, CO – joined the list.
This white paper leverages a variety of location intelligence tools – including Placer.ai’s Migration Report, Niche Neighborhood Grades, and ACS Census Data location intelligence – to analyze two migration hotspots. Specifically, the report focuses on Daytona Beach, FL, which already appeared on the February 2020 to February 2023 list and has continued to see steady growth, and Boulder, CO, which has emerged as a new top destination. The data highlights the potential of CBSAs with unique value propositions to continue to attract newcomers despite ongoing housing headwinds.
The Boulder, CO CBSA has emerged as a domestic migration hotspot: The net influx of population between February 2023 and February 2024 (i.e. the total number of people that moved to Boulder from elsewhere in the U.S., minus those that left) constituted 3.1% of the CBSA’s February 2024 population.
The strong migration is partially due to the University of Colorado, Boulder’s growing popularity. But the metro area has also emerged as a flourishing tech hub, with Google, Apple, and Amazon all setting up shop in town, along with a wealth of smaller start ups.
Most domestic relocators tend to remain within state lines – so unsurprisingly, many of the recent newcomers to Boulder moved from other CBSAs in Colorado. But perhaps due to Boulder’s robust tech ecosystem, many of the new residents also came from Los Angeles, CA (6.6%) and San Francisco, CA (3.4%) – other CBSAs known for their thriving tech scenes.
At the same time, looking at the other CBSAs feeding migration to the area indicates that tech is likely not the only draw attracting people to Boulder: A significant share of relocators came from the CBSAs of Chicago, IL (6.1%), Dallas , TX (4.9%), and New York, NY (3.9%). The move from these relatively urbanized CBSAs to scenic Boulder indicates that some of the domestic migration to the area is likely driven by people looking for better access to nature or a general lifestyle change.
According to the U.S. News & World Report, Boulder ranked in second place in terms of U.S. cities with the best quality of life. Using Niche Neighborhood Grades to compare quality of life attributes in the Boulder CBSA and in the areas of origin dataset highlights some of the draw factors attracting newcomers to Boulder beyond the thriving tech scene.
The Boulder CBSA ranked higher than the metro areas of origin for “Public Schools,” “Health & Fitness,” “Fit for Families,” and “Access to Outdoor Activities.” These migration draw factors are likely helping Boulder attract more senior executives alongside younger tech workers – and can also explain why relocators from more urban metro areas may be choosing to make Boulder their home.
Boulder’s strong inbound migration numbers over the past year – likely driven by its flourishing tech scene and beautiful natural surroundings – reveal the growth potential of certain CBSAs regardless of wider housing market headwinds.
Florida experienced a population boom during the pandemic, and several CBSAs in the state – including the Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL CBSA – have continued to welcome domestic relocators in high numbers. The CBSA’s anchor city, Daytona Beach – known for its Bike Week and NASCAR’s Daytona 500 – has also seen positive net migration between February 2023 and February 2024.
Americans planning for retirement or retirees operating on a fixed income are likely particularly interested in optimizing their living expenses. And given Daytona’s relative affordability, it’s no surprise that the median age in the areas of origin feeding migration to Daytona Beach tends to be on the older side.
According to the 2021 Census ACS 5-Year Projection data, the median age in Daytona Beach was 39.0. Meanwhile, the weighted median age in the areas of migration origin was 42.6, indicating that those moving to Daytona Beach may be older than the current residents of the city.
Zooming into the migration data on a zip code level also highlights Daytona Beach’s appeal to older Americans: The zip code welcoming the highest rates of domestic migration was 32124, home to both Jimmy Buffet’s Latitude Margaritaville’s 55+ community and the LPGA International Golf Club, host of the LPGA Tour. The median age in this zip code is also older than in Daytona Beach as a whole, and the weighted age in the zip codes of origin was even higher – suggesting that older Americans and retirees may be driving much of the migration to the area.
Looking at the migration draw factors for Daytona Beach also suggests that the city is particularly appealing to retirees, with the city scoring an A grade for its “Fit for Retirees.” But the city of Daytona Beach is also an attractive destination for anyone looking to elevate their leisure time, with the city scoring higher than Daytona Beach’s cities of migration origin for “Weather,” “Access to Restaurants,” or “Access to Nightlife.”
Like Boulder, Daytona’s scenery – including its famous beaches – is likely attracting newcomers looking to spend more time outdoors and improve their work-life balance. And like Boulder and its tech scene, Daytona Beach also has an extra pull factor – its affordability and fit for older Americans – that is likely helping the area continue to attract new residents, even as domestic migration slows down nationwide.
Although the overall pace of domestic migration has slowed, analyzing location intelligence data reveals several migration hotspots amidst the overall cooldown. Boulder and Daytona Beach each have a set of unique draw factors that seem to attract different populations – and the success of these regions highlights the many paths to migration growth in 2024.
The Fitness industry was a major post-pandemic winner. Visits to gyms across the country surged as stay-at-home orders ended and people returned to their in-person workout routines. And even as consumers reduced discretionary spending in the face of inflation, they kept going to the gym – finding room in their budgets for the chance to embrace wellness and get in shape while interacting with other people.
But no category can sustain such unabated growth forever – and as the segment inevitably stabilizes, gyms will need to stay nimble on their feet to maintain their competitive edge.
This white paper takes a closer look at the state of Fitness as the category transitions into a more stable growth phase following two years of outsize post-pandemic demand. The report digs into the location analytics to reveal how the Fitness space has changed – and what strategies gyms can adopt to stay ahead of the pack.
*This report excludes locations within Washington state due to local legislation.
Monthly visits to the Fitness category have grown consistently year over year (YoY) since early 2022, when COVID subsided and gyms returned to full capacity. And the segment is still doing remarkably well. Even in January and March 2024 – when visits were curtailed by an Arctic blast and by the Easter holiday weekend – YoY Fitness visits remained positive, despite the comparison to an already strong 2023.
Still, recent months have seen smaller YoY increases than last year, indicating that the Fitness category is entering a more normalized growth phase.
By keeping a close watch on evolving consumer preferences, fitness chains can uncover new opportunities for growth and adaptation within a stabilizing market – including leaning into increasingly popular dayparts.
Examining the evolving distribution of gym visits by daypart over the past six years shows that major shifts were brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Between Q1 2019 and Q1 2021, as remote work took hold, gyms saw their share of 2:00 PM - 5:00 PM visits increase from 15.8% to 18.6%. Though this trend partially reversed as the pandemic receded, afternoon visits remained elevated in Q1 2024 compared to pre-COVID – likely a reflection of hybrid work patterns that leave people free to take an exercise break during their workdays.
At the same time, the share of morning visits to fitness chains (between 8:00 AM and 11:00 AM) dropped from 20.5% in Q1 2019 to 17.2% in Q1 2024, while evening visits (between 8:00 PM and 11:00 PM) increased from 11.3% to 13.2%.
Gyms that recognize this changing behavior can adapt to new workout preferences – whether by incentivizing morning visits, scheduling popular classes mid-afternoon, or offering extended evening hours.
In fact, the data indicates that gyms that are leaning into the evening workout trend are already finding success: Of the top 12 most-visited gym chains in the country, those that saw bigger increases in their shares of evening visits also tended to see greater YoY visit growth.
EōS Fitness and Crunch Fitness, for example, have seen their shares of evening visits grow by 5.5% and 3.4%, respectively, since COVID – and in Q1 2024, their YoY visits grew by 29.0% and 21.8%, respectively. Other chains, including 24 Hour Fitness and Chuze Fitness, experienced similar shifts in visit patterns. At the same time, LA Fitness saw just a minor increase in its share of evening visits between Q1 2019 and Q1 2024, and a correspondingly small increase in YoY visits.
As the evening workout slot gains popularity, gym operators that can adapt to these new trends and encourage evening visits may see significant benefits in the years to come.
Diving into demographic data for the analyzed gym chains sheds light on some factors that may be driving this heightened preference for evening workouts at top-performing gyms.
The four fitness chains that experienced the greatest YoY visit boosts in Q1 – Crunch Fitness, EōS Fitness, 24 Hour Fitness, and Chuze Fitness – all featured trade areas with significantly higher-than-average shares of Young Professionals and Non-Family Households. (STI: PopStat’s Non-Family Household segment includes households with more than one person not defined as family members. Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s Young Professional consumer segment includes young professionals starting their careers in white collar or technical jobs.)
In plainer terms, these consumer segments – typically young, well-educated, and without children – and therefore more likely to be flexible in their workout times – are driving visits to some of the best-performing gyms across the country. And these audiences seem to be displaying a preference for nighttime sweat sessions – a factor that gyms can take into account when planning programming and marketing efforts.
Leaning into emerging gym visitation patterns is one way for fitness chains to thrive in 2024 – but it isn’t the only marker of success for the segment. Even after years of visit growth, the market remains open to new opportunities and innovations that meet health-conscious consumers where they are.
STRIDE Fitness, a gym that offers treadmill-based interval training, has sparked a trend among running enthusiasts. This niche player is finding success, particularly among a specific demographic: runners and endurance training enthusiasts.
Between January and April 2024, monthly YoY visits to STRIDE Fitness consistently outperformed the wider Fitness space. A standout month was January, when STRIDE Fitness’s visits soared by an impressive 33.6% YoY, surpassing the industry average of 5.7% for the same period.
Psychographic data from the Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph dataset – which looks at the social media activity of a given audience – suggests that STRIDE Fitness’ trade areas are well-positioned to attract those visitors most open to its offerings. Residents of STRIDE Fitness’s potential market are 24% more likely to be, or to be interested in, Endurance Athletes than the nationwide average – compared to just 3% for the Fitness industry as a whole. Similar patterns emerge for Marathon Runners and Triathlon Participants. This indicates that the chain is well-situated near consumers with a passion for endurance sports and long distance running, helping it maintain a competitive edge in the crowded gym market.
Pickleball, a game that blends elements of tennis, ping pong, and badminton, is the fastest-growing sport in the country. And recognizing its broad appeal, some fitness chains have begun incorporating pickleball courts into their facilities.
Arizona-based EōS Fitness added a pickleball court at a Phoenix, AZ location – and early 2024 data highlights the impact of this addition. Between January and April 2024, the location drew between 9.1% and 33.3% more monthly visits than the chain’s Arizona visit-per-location average.
And analyzing the demographic profile of the chain’s location with a pickleball court reinforces the game’s increasingly wide appeal. Young consumer segments have been embracing the game in large numbers – and the Phoenix EōS Fitness location’s potential market includes a significantly higher share of 18 to 34-year-olds than the chain’s overall Arizona potential market. Residents of the pickleball location’s trade area are also less affluent than the chain’s Arizona average.
Pickleball has typically been associated with more affluent consumer segments, and it seems like this may be shifting. With more people than ever embracing the game, gyms that choose to add courts to their facilities may reap the foot traffic benefits.
The Fitness industry has undergone a significant transformation since COVID-19. The category’s outsize post-pandemic visit growth has begun to stabilize, and gyms are staying ahead by adapting to changing consumer preferences. Evenings are emerging as crucial dayparts for gym operators, likely driven by younger consumer segments. And niche fitness chains are seeing visit success, proving that there are plenty of ways for the Fitness segment to succeed.
