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Despite the ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, overall retail traffic this year has remained generally on par with 2024 levels. Between January and May 2025, retail visits were 0.4% higher than for the equivalent period in 2024, with April and May 2025 visits up 2.3% and 1.3%, respectively.
Some of the recent strength may be attributed to a pull-forward of consumer demand as a response to potential price hikes and limited product availability. But the strongest year-over-year (YoY) visit increase in 2025 so far was actually in January – when visits were up 3.4% compared to January 2024 – highlighting the resilience of retail consumers in 2025 and boding well for the upcoming back to school season.
Diving into YoY May 2025 retail visit data by state suggests that back to school performance may be particularly strong in the West: Retail traffic in Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Montana was 3.0% to 5.1% higher than in May 2024, while Utah's retail chains received a 5.0% YoY boost in traffic. Consumers in these states may be particularly primed to spend this summer.
Meanwhile, several Eastern states (Ohio, New York, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia) saw YoY declines in May 2025 retail visits, perhaps suggesting that consumer confidence in those states is slightly more muted. This may indicate that back to school retail traffic will be slightly weaker in these markets.
Last year, sportswear & athleisure and footwear retailers saw the largest back to school visit jumps, followed by office supplies and traditional apparel (excluding off-price, department stores, and sportswear & athleisure). These segments all saw slight visit increases in May 2025 and are likely to continue seeing sizable traffic spikes for back to school season this year.
But looking at the visit data from April and March reveals that the retail categories seeing the strongest visit trends currently are the segments that get a slightly smaller boost from back to school – including furniture & home furnishings, off-price retailers, and thrift stores. Some of this strength may be attributed to pull-forward of demand (as consumers could have bought larger ticket items like furniture in anticipation of price hikes) or to shoppers' value-orientation (driving visits up for off-price and thrift stores). But these categories' recent success may also suggest that home furnishings, off-price apparel, and thrift stores could see higher volumes of consumer traffic this year compared to 2024.
Ahead of the 2025 back to school season, retail traffic data paints the picture of a generally resilient consumer, despite the regional variability. And while last year's big back to school winners will likely perform well again in 2025, more secondary back to school categories – including home furnishings, off-price, and thrift stores – may be the ones to come out on top this year.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
The dining segment has faced no shortage of challenges in recent years. Rising food and labor costs, inflation, and shifting consumer habits have put pressure on many chains – but some are thriving.
We take a look at three dining chains – local favorites that have been expanding in recent years – to see what lies behind their surprising success.
Visits to the overall fast-casual segment remained flat year over year (YoY) in Q1 2025, highlighting the challenging state of the dining category. But three expanding local restaurant chains – Pura Vida Miami, Mendocino Farms, and P. Terry’s Burger Stand – all saw their foot traffic grow significantly in the same period.
Florida-based Pura Vida Miami, a cafe that specializes in health and wellness, saw the biggest jump in foot traffic, with visits growing by 58.5% in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024. The eatery, which opened its first location in 2012, and now boasts 35 locations across South Florida and New York has no plans to slow its rapid expansion. And fittingly, the average number of visits to each location of the chain also increased by 11.9% YoY – highlighting that its new venues are meeting strong demand.
California-based fast-casual restaurant Mendocino Farms also places a strong emphasis on healthy dining. Founded in 2005, the chain has grown to 75 locations – most of them in California – and continues to thrive, with visits up by 23.0% in Q1 2025 and visits per location rising by 12.9%. Austin, Texas favorite P. Terry’s Burger Stand, which opened in 2005, is also thriving. The chain grew its presence over the past year, adding new locations in Houston – and like the other analyzed brands, saw increases in both overall visits and average visits per location.
Location analytics show that each of the chains is finding success in its own way. Diving into hourly visitation patterns for Pura Vida Miami, for example, reveals a subtle but notable shift in its peak visit times, suggesting that as the chain expands, it is successfully positioning itself as a breakfast and lunchtime destination. Between Q1 2025 and Q1 2024, the share of visitors arriving between 7:00 and 11:00 AM, and 12:00 - 4:00 PM increased slightly, while the proportion of evening visitors declined.
To capitalize on this trend, Pura Vida could consider further developing its morning menu or, conversely, exploring opportunities to enhance its dinner menu to attract a cohort that seeks health-centric dinner items.
Mendocino Farms, for its part, appears to be deriving some of its success from the affluence of its customer base. The chain, which boasts over 60 of its 75 locations in California, has also established a presence in Washington, Texas, and Colorado. Mendocino Farms will be opening around 15 new locations throughout 2025, and will begin its eastward march, opening a location in Chicago in the coming months.
And a look at the chains’ two largest markets, California and Texas, shows that visitors to the Mendocino Farms in Q1 2025 were more likely to come from high-income trade areas, likely insulating them from the overall challenges facing the wider dining segment. For example, the median HHI of visitors to Mendocino Farms in California was $123.8K, compared to the California average of $96.7K. And in Texas, its second-largest market, visitors originated from trade areas with a median HHI of $105.8K – significantly higher than both the Texas ($76.5K) and nationwide ($78.9K) medians.
P. Terry’s Burger Stand is a Texas cult favorite. The chain, which has grown from a family-owned burger stand in 2005 to 34 locations in the Austin area is thriving, and recently began expanding into other cities in Texas.
Over the years, the chain has become something of a weekend destination, with 30.4% of its visitors coming on the weekends in Q1 2025 – up from 28.1% in Q1 2024. This suggests that, as the chain grows, more customers are incorporating P. Terry's into their weekend routines, likely drawn by its blend of quality and accessible price point. This increasing weekend popularity, coupled with its strategic expansion into new markets like Houston, bodes well for P. Terry's continued growth across Texas.
The three dining chains are proving that, even in challenging times, there’s plenty of space for local favorites to flourish.
Will these chains continue to thrive in the second half of 2025?
Visit Placer.ai/anchor to stay up-to-date with the latest data driving dining stores.
Imagine being able to literally pop downstairs for your favorite coffee shop, boutique, or to pick up a novel from your local bookstore. At the Arcade mixed-use shopping center in Providence, this is not a pipe dream, but a reality. Originally built in 1828, this historic building was conceived as a social and commercial hub filled with wares from merchants and artisans where customers could shop even in inclement weather. Nearly 200 years later, the purpose remains the same. However, as suburban shopping centers proliferated in the last few decades, Arcade struggled with its foot traffic.
In 2008, it closed for renovations and reopened in 2013, transformed into a mixed-use commercial and residential micro-loft space. The top two floors consist of 48 micro-lofts with 225-300 square feet of living space. None have stoves or ovens, perfect for those Carrie Bradshaw type occupants who would otherwise store sweaters in their ovens. Those coming from densely packed urban areas like New York or Tokyo would appreciate the minimalism and efficiency of these lofts. Upon opening, there was a waiting list of 4,000, making obtaining a spot even more competitive than getting into an elite university.
The Arcade Providence still operates retail and dining spaces on the ground floor, including local favorites like a Lovecraft-themed bookstore, or Lobanton, an Asian-fusion sandwich shop. The Greek Revival-themed mall also hosts New Harvest Coffee & Spirits and restaurants like Rogue Island, all of which attract a steady stream of visitors.
How has the shift to mixed-use impacted the psychographic composition of the venue's visitor base? We compared the segments visiting Arcade Providence in 2018 vs 2024 and found some interesting shifts that have occurred in the past six years. Visitors in 2018 tended to come from the Young Professional (26%) or Educated Urbanites (18%) segments (per the Spatial.ai PersonaLive classifications). However, six years later, the share of those segments in the Arcade's visitor base have declined, while the percentages of visitors from the Upper Suburban Diverse Families (from 10% to 13%) and Ultra Wealthy Families (from 5% to 11%) segments have increased.
The change in visitor demographics is likely driven – at least in part – by the increase in True Trade Area since the Arcade's shift to mixed-use. The 2018 trade area (in blue) covered only 29 sq miles, whereas the 2024 trade area (in green) has expanded to 65 miles.
The Arcade is located in downtown Providence, so this increase in trade area size suggests that the venue is now attracting visitors from more suburban areas beyond the city center, which typically include more family-oriented and wealthier zones.
This nearly 200-year old shopping center exhibits our ingrained human tendency to congregate, conduct commerce, and socialize. It also shows the constant evolution of how we live, work, and play.
For more data-driven CRE insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Following a strong April when nationwide office visits rose 4.8% year-over-year, visits fell slightly in May 2025 as traffic fell 1.0% compared to May 2024. On a year-over-six-year basis (Yo6Y, or compared to 2019), visits were down 37.2% – a steep drop from April's 30.1% Yo6Y visit gap.
The weaker May numbers may be partially driven by a calendar shift, as May 2025 had an extra Saturday, and therefore one less workday, than either May 2024 or May 2019. Americans may have also chosen to take more PTO around Memorial Day this year – according to the TSA, airports were busier on the Friday before Memorial Day 2025 than they were on Friday, May 24th 2024.
But the muted May office data also highlights the persistent popularity of hybrid and remote work. According to Gallup, over half of U.S. employees work hybrid while over a quarter are fully remote – and the recent May data suggests that these work arrangements are proving difficult to change.
Diving into the market-level data reveals that New York City, NY and Miami, FL continue to lead the pack, with office visits down 18.4% and 19.6%, respectively, compared to 2019. But both cities also saw slight declines compared to May 2024's office numbers – highlighting once again the persistence of the new work arrangements and the overall slowing of the office recovery.
Southern hubs – specifically Atlanta, GA, Dallas, TX, and Houston, TX – followed New York and Miami, with visits down 32.1%, 35.5%, and 36.2% compared to May 2019. Dallas and Houston also saw their office visits increase compared to 2024, with Houston specifically seeing an 8.3% increase in YoY office visits, perhaps aided by corporate relocations to the two cities. Georgia and Texas also saw their populations increase in recent years, which may be contributing to these cities' office performance.
Meanwhile, the Yo6Y office visit gap in Washington, D.C., Boston, MA, Los Angeles, CA, Chicago, IL, Denver, CO, and San Francisco, CA ranged from 40.1% to 50.6%, with all the cities except for Boston also experiencing YoY declines.
The May 2025 Placer.ai Office Index highlights a persistent plateau in office recovery. While some regional bright spots exist, the return to pre-pandemic office traffic remains elusive, largely due to the enduring popularity of hybrid and remote work models.
For more data-driven commercial real estate insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Darden Restaurants, which counts Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse among its portfolio of leading full-service restaurant (FSR) chains, has been on a solid growth trajectory: In March 2025, the company reported a 6.2% year-over-year (YoY) quarterly sales increase, fueled by expansion and a 0.7% bump in same-restaurant sales.
With Darden set to report again in June 2025, we dove into the data to see how the full-service restaurant (FSR) leader has performed so far this year.
In Q1 2025, overall visits to Darden Restaurants’ brand portfolio outpaced average visits per location, reflecting the company’s expansion in 2024, including the acquisition of Chuy’s. Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse, both of which also increased their footprints over the past year, followed similar patterns – with LongHorn Steakhouse enjoying a modest 0.5% uptick in overall foot traffic.
A closer look at monthly visitation data reveals a more nuanced – and positive – picture.
Between January and May 2025, Darden recorded nearly uniform monthly YoY overall visit growth, with only February slipping into the red due to harsh weather and a leap-year comparison. And in April and May, average visits per location rose YoY for both the portfolio and its leading brands – a testament to Darden’s ongoing strength.
Unsurprisingly, LongHorn Steakhouse continued to outperform, drawing customers with the promise of a reasonably priced cut of quality meat – a particularly enticing value proposition as beef prices continue to rise.
Darden’s performance on Mother’s Day, an important milestone for the company, further underscores its positive trajectory.
Olive Garden is a major Mother’s Day destination, and its performance this year didn’t disappoint. May 11th, 2025 was the Italian-American cuisine giant’s single busiest day of the past 12 months, with foot traffic soaring 152.9% compared to an average day and 101.8% compared to an average Sunday. LongHorn Steakhouse experienced a similar surge, and both chains topped their Mother’s Day traffic from last year – showcasing their ability to capitalize on this crucial occasion.
Like Texas Roadhouse, LongHorn Steakhouse is also a major Father’s Day draw. And given its strong performance this year, the chain will certainly be one to watch when June 15th rolls around.
Darden’s recent results show resilience and a clear knack for meeting consumer demand, even in a challenging market. How will the company continue to fare as the year progresses?
Follow Placer.ai's data-driven dining analyses to find out.
Burger King is the latest quick-service restaurant (QSR) brand to jump on the LTO bandwagon, introducing a limited-time menu inspired by the much-anticipated How to Train Your Dragon movie. And though the film isn’t set to hit theaters until June 13th, the offering – which launched on Tuesday, May 27th – already appears to be boosting foot traffic.
On the day of the launch, visits to Burger King rose 6.2% above the chain’s year-to-date (YTD) Tuesday average. Momentum continued to build throughout the week, with May 30th seeing an 11.1% visit bump compared to an average Friday – and emerging as Burger King’s busiest day of the year so far. Year over year, too, Burger King registered increased traffic during the week of the launch – a trend that could intensify once the movie premieres.
Note: This report is based on an analysis of visitation patterns for regional and nationwide grocery chains and does not include single-location stores.
Grocery stores, superstores, and dollar stores all carry food products – and American consumers buy groceries at all three. But even in today’s crowded food retail environment, traditional grocery chains have a special role to play. With their primary focus on stocking a wide variety of fresh foods, these chains serve a critical function in offering consumers access to healthy options.
But visualizing the footprints of major grocery chains across the continental U.S. – alongside those of discount & dollar stores – shows that the geographical distribution of grocery chains remains uneven.
In some areas, including parts of the Northeast, Midwest, South Atlantic, and Pacific regions, grocery chains are plentiful. But in others – some with population centers large enough to feature a robust dollar store presence – they remain in short supply.
And though many superstore locations also provide a full array of grocery offerings, they, too, are often sparsely represented in areas with low concentrations of grocery chains.
For grocery chain operators seeking to expand, these underserved grocery markets can present a significant opportunity. And for civic stakeholders looking to broaden access to healthy food across communities, these areas highlight a policy challenge. For both groups, identifying underserved markets with significant untapped demand can be a critical first step in deciding where to focus grocery development initiatives.
This white paper dives into the location analytics to examine grocery store availability across the United States – and harnesses these insights to explore potential demand in some underserved markets. The report focuses on locations belonging to regional or nationwide grocery chains, rather than single-location stores.
Last year, grocery chains accounted for 43.4% of nationwide visits to food retailers – including grocery chains, superstores, and discount & dollar stores. But drilling down into the data for different areas of the country reveals striking regional variation – offering a glimpse into the variability of grocery store access throughout the U.S. In some states, grocery stores attract the majority of visit share to food retailers, while in others, dollar stores or superstores dominate the scene.
The ten states where residents were most likely to visit grocery chains in early 2024 – Oregon, Vermont, Washington, Massachusetts, California, Maryland, New Hampshire, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Rhode Island – were all on the East or West Coasts. In these states, as well as in Nevada and New York, grocery chain visits accounted for 50.0% or more of food retail visits between January and April 2024.
Meanwhile, residents of many West North Central and South Central states were much less likely to do their food shopping at grocery chains. In North Dakota, for example, grocery chain visits accounted for just 11.7% of visits to food retailers over the analyzed period. And in Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, too, grocery stores drew less than 20.0% of the overall food retail foot traffic.
But low grocery store visit share does not necessarily indicate a lack of consumer interest or ability to support such stores. And in some of these underserved regions, existing grocery chains are seeing outsize visit growth – indicating growing demand for their offerings.
North Dakota, the state with the smallest share of visits going to grocery chains in early 2024, experienced a 9.1% year-over-year (YoY) increase in grocery visits during the same period – nearly double the nationwide baseline of 5.7%. Other states with low grocery visit share, including Nebraska, Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi, and New Mexico, also experienced higher-than-average YoY grocery chain visit growth. This suggests significant untapped potential for grocery stores and a market that is hungry for more.
Alabama is one state where grocery chains accounted for a relatively small share of overall food retail foot traffic in early 2024 (just 28.9%) – but where YoY visit growth outperformed the nationwide average. And digging down even further into local grocery store visitation trends provides further evidence that at least in some places, low grocery visit share may be due to inadequate supply, rather than insufficient demand.
In Central Alabama, for example, many residents drive at least 10 miles to reach a local grocery chain. And several parts of the state, both rural and urban, feature clusters of grocery stores that draw customers from relatively far away.
But zooming in on YoY visitation data for local grocery chain locations shows that at least some of these areas likely harbor untapped demand. Take for example the Camden, Butler, Thomasville, and Gilbertown areas (circled in the map above). The Piggly Wiggly location in Butler, AL, drew 40.1% of visits from 10 or more miles away. The same store experienced a 23.3% YoY increase in visits in early 2024 – far above the statewide baseline of 6.6%. Meanwhile, the Super Foods location in Thomasville, AL, which drew 52.8% of visits from at least 10 miles away – experienced YoY visit growth of 12.3%. The Piggly Wiggly locations in Camden, AL and Gilbertown, AL saw similar trends.
At the same time, trade area analysis of the four locations reveals that the grocery stores had little to no trade area overlap during the analyzed period. Each store served specific areas, with minimal cannibalization among customer bases.
These metrics appear to highlight robust demand for grocery stores in the region – grocery visits are growing at a stronger rate than those in the overall state, people are willing to make the drive to these stores, and each one has little to no competition from the others.
While significant opportunity exists across the country, many communities still face considerable challenges in supporting large grocery stores. Though South Carolina has a significant number of grocery chain locations, for example, certain areas within the state have low access to food shopping opportunities. And one local government – Greenville County – is considering offering tax breaks to grocery stores that set up shop in the area, to improve local fresh food accessibility.
Placer.ai migration and visitation data shows that Greenville County is ripe for such initiatives: the county’s population grew by 4.8% over the past four years – with much of that increase a result of positive net migration. And YoY visits to Greenville County Grocery Stores have consistently outperformed state averages: In April 2024, grocery visits in the county grew by 6.1% YoY, while overall visits to grocery stores in South Carolina grew by 4.2%. This growth – both in terms of grocery visits and population – points to rising demand for grocery stores in Greenville County.
Analyzing the Greenville County grocery store trade areas with Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph dataset – which looks at the social media activity of a given audience – offers further insight into local grocery shoppers’ particular demand and preferences.
Consumers in Greenville-area grocery store trade areas, for example, are more likely to be interested in “Mid-Range Grocery Stores” (including brands like Aldi, Kroger, and Lidl) than residents of grocery store trade areas in the state as a whole. This metric provides further evidence of local demand for grocery chains – and offers a glimpse into the kinds of specific grocery offerings likely to succeed in the area.
Grocery stores remain essential services for many consumers, providing a place to pick up fresh produce, meat, and other healthy food options. And many areas in the country are ripe for expansion, with eager customer bases and growing demand. Identifying such areas with location analytics can help both grocery store operators and municipal stakeholders provide their communities and customer bases with an enhanced grocery shopping experience that caters to local preferences.
Following COVID-era highs, domestic migration levels have begun to taper off – with the number of Americans moving within the U.S. hitting an all-time low, according to some sources, in 2023.
To be sure, some popular COVID-era destinations – including Idaho, the Carolinas, and Utah – saw their net domestic migration continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace. But other states which had been relocation hotspots between February 2020 and February 2023, such as Wyoming and Texas, experienced negative net migration between February 2023 and February 2024.
Analyzing CBSA-level migration data reveals differences and similarities between last year’s migration patterns and COVID-era trends.
Between February 2020 and February 2023, seven out of the ten CBSAs posting the largest population increases due to inbound domestic migration were located in Florida. But between February 2023 and February 2024, the top 10 CBSAs with the largest net migrated percent of the population were significantly more diverse. Only four out of the ten CBSAs were located in Florida, and several new metro areas – including Provo-Orem, UT, Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA, and Boulder, CO – joined the list.
This white paper leverages a variety of location intelligence tools – including Placer.ai’s Migration Report, Niche Neighborhood Grades, and ACS Census Data location intelligence – to analyze two migration hotspots. Specifically, the report focuses on Daytona Beach, FL, which already appeared on the February 2020 to February 2023 list and has continued to see steady growth, and Boulder, CO, which has emerged as a new top destination. The data highlights the potential of CBSAs with unique value propositions to continue to attract newcomers despite ongoing housing headwinds.
The Boulder, CO CBSA has emerged as a domestic migration hotspot: The net influx of population between February 2023 and February 2024 (i.e. the total number of people that moved to Boulder from elsewhere in the U.S., minus those that left) constituted 3.1% of the CBSA’s February 2024 population.
The strong migration is partially due to the University of Colorado, Boulder’s growing popularity. But the metro area has also emerged as a flourishing tech hub, with Google, Apple, and Amazon all setting up shop in town, along with a wealth of smaller start ups.
Most domestic relocators tend to remain within state lines – so unsurprisingly, many of the recent newcomers to Boulder moved from other CBSAs in Colorado. But perhaps due to Boulder’s robust tech ecosystem, many of the new residents also came from Los Angeles, CA (6.6%) and San Francisco, CA (3.4%) – other CBSAs known for their thriving tech scenes.
At the same time, looking at the other CBSAs feeding migration to the area indicates that tech is likely not the only draw attracting people to Boulder: A significant share of relocators came from the CBSAs of Chicago, IL (6.1%), Dallas , TX (4.9%), and New York, NY (3.9%). The move from these relatively urbanized CBSAs to scenic Boulder indicates that some of the domestic migration to the area is likely driven by people looking for better access to nature or a general lifestyle change.
According to the U.S. News & World Report, Boulder ranked in second place in terms of U.S. cities with the best quality of life. Using Niche Neighborhood Grades to compare quality of life attributes in the Boulder CBSA and in the areas of origin dataset highlights some of the draw factors attracting newcomers to Boulder beyond the thriving tech scene.
The Boulder CBSA ranked higher than the metro areas of origin for “Public Schools,” “Health & Fitness,” “Fit for Families,” and “Access to Outdoor Activities.” These migration draw factors are likely helping Boulder attract more senior executives alongside younger tech workers – and can also explain why relocators from more urban metro areas may be choosing to make Boulder their home.
Boulder’s strong inbound migration numbers over the past year – likely driven by its flourishing tech scene and beautiful natural surroundings – reveal the growth potential of certain CBSAs regardless of wider housing market headwinds.
Florida experienced a population boom during the pandemic, and several CBSAs in the state – including the Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL CBSA – have continued to welcome domestic relocators in high numbers. The CBSA’s anchor city, Daytona Beach – known for its Bike Week and NASCAR’s Daytona 500 – has also seen positive net migration between February 2023 and February 2024.
Americans planning for retirement or retirees operating on a fixed income are likely particularly interested in optimizing their living expenses. And given Daytona’s relative affordability, it’s no surprise that the median age in the areas of origin feeding migration to Daytona Beach tends to be on the older side.
According to the 2021 Census ACS 5-Year Projection data, the median age in Daytona Beach was 39.0. Meanwhile, the weighted median age in the areas of migration origin was 42.6, indicating that those moving to Daytona Beach may be older than the current residents of the city.
Zooming into the migration data on a zip code level also highlights Daytona Beach’s appeal to older Americans: The zip code welcoming the highest rates of domestic migration was 32124, home to both Jimmy Buffet’s Latitude Margaritaville’s 55+ community and the LPGA International Golf Club, host of the LPGA Tour. The median age in this zip code is also older than in Daytona Beach as a whole, and the weighted age in the zip codes of origin was even higher – suggesting that older Americans and retirees may be driving much of the migration to the area.
Looking at the migration draw factors for Daytona Beach also suggests that the city is particularly appealing to retirees, with the city scoring an A grade for its “Fit for Retirees.” But the city of Daytona Beach is also an attractive destination for anyone looking to elevate their leisure time, with the city scoring higher than Daytona Beach’s cities of migration origin for “Weather,” “Access to Restaurants,” or “Access to Nightlife.”
Like Boulder, Daytona’s scenery – including its famous beaches – is likely attracting newcomers looking to spend more time outdoors and improve their work-life balance. And like Boulder and its tech scene, Daytona Beach also has an extra pull factor – its affordability and fit for older Americans – that is likely helping the area continue to attract new residents, even as domestic migration slows down nationwide.
Although the overall pace of domestic migration has slowed, analyzing location intelligence data reveals several migration hotspots amidst the overall cooldown. Boulder and Daytona Beach each have a set of unique draw factors that seem to attract different populations – and the success of these regions highlights the many paths to migration growth in 2024.
The Fitness industry was a major post-pandemic winner. Visits to gyms across the country surged as stay-at-home orders ended and people returned to their in-person workout routines. And even as consumers reduced discretionary spending in the face of inflation, they kept going to the gym – finding room in their budgets for the chance to embrace wellness and get in shape while interacting with other people.
But no category can sustain such unabated growth forever – and as the segment inevitably stabilizes, gyms will need to stay nimble on their feet to maintain their competitive edge.
This white paper takes a closer look at the state of Fitness as the category transitions into a more stable growth phase following two years of outsize post-pandemic demand. The report digs into the location analytics to reveal how the Fitness space has changed – and what strategies gyms can adopt to stay ahead of the pack.
*This report excludes locations within Washington state due to local legislation.
Monthly visits to the Fitness category have grown consistently year over year (YoY) since early 2022, when COVID subsided and gyms returned to full capacity. And the segment is still doing remarkably well. Even in January and March 2024 – when visits were curtailed by an Arctic blast and by the Easter holiday weekend – YoY Fitness visits remained positive, despite the comparison to an already strong 2023.
Still, recent months have seen smaller YoY increases than last year, indicating that the Fitness category is entering a more normalized growth phase.
By keeping a close watch on evolving consumer preferences, fitness chains can uncover new opportunities for growth and adaptation within a stabilizing market – including leaning into increasingly popular dayparts.
Examining the evolving distribution of gym visits by daypart over the past six years shows that major shifts were brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Between Q1 2019 and Q1 2021, as remote work took hold, gyms saw their share of 2:00 PM - 5:00 PM visits increase from 15.8% to 18.6%. Though this trend partially reversed as the pandemic receded, afternoon visits remained elevated in Q1 2024 compared to pre-COVID – likely a reflection of hybrid work patterns that leave people free to take an exercise break during their workdays.
At the same time, the share of morning visits to fitness chains (between 8:00 AM and 11:00 AM) dropped from 20.5% in Q1 2019 to 17.2% in Q1 2024, while evening visits (between 8:00 PM and 11:00 PM) increased from 11.3% to 13.2%.
Gyms that recognize this changing behavior can adapt to new workout preferences – whether by incentivizing morning visits, scheduling popular classes mid-afternoon, or offering extended evening hours.
In fact, the data indicates that gyms that are leaning into the evening workout trend are already finding success: Of the top 12 most-visited gym chains in the country, those that saw bigger increases in their shares of evening visits also tended to see greater YoY visit growth.
EōS Fitness and Crunch Fitness, for example, have seen their shares of evening visits grow by 5.5% and 3.4%, respectively, since COVID – and in Q1 2024, their YoY visits grew by 29.0% and 21.8%, respectively. Other chains, including 24 Hour Fitness and Chuze Fitness, experienced similar shifts in visit patterns. At the same time, LA Fitness saw just a minor increase in its share of evening visits between Q1 2019 and Q1 2024, and a correspondingly small increase in YoY visits.
As the evening workout slot gains popularity, gym operators that can adapt to these new trends and encourage evening visits may see significant benefits in the years to come.
Diving into demographic data for the analyzed gym chains sheds light on some factors that may be driving this heightened preference for evening workouts at top-performing gyms.
The four fitness chains that experienced the greatest YoY visit boosts in Q1 – Crunch Fitness, EōS Fitness, 24 Hour Fitness, and Chuze Fitness – all featured trade areas with significantly higher-than-average shares of Young Professionals and Non-Family Households. (STI: PopStat’s Non-Family Household segment includes households with more than one person not defined as family members. Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s Young Professional consumer segment includes young professionals starting their careers in white collar or technical jobs.)
In plainer terms, these consumer segments – typically young, well-educated, and without children – and therefore more likely to be flexible in their workout times – are driving visits to some of the best-performing gyms across the country. And these audiences seem to be displaying a preference for nighttime sweat sessions – a factor that gyms can take into account when planning programming and marketing efforts.
Leaning into emerging gym visitation patterns is one way for fitness chains to thrive in 2024 – but it isn’t the only marker of success for the segment. Even after years of visit growth, the market remains open to new opportunities and innovations that meet health-conscious consumers where they are.
STRIDE Fitness, a gym that offers treadmill-based interval training, has sparked a trend among running enthusiasts. This niche player is finding success, particularly among a specific demographic: runners and endurance training enthusiasts.
Between January and April 2024, monthly YoY visits to STRIDE Fitness consistently outperformed the wider Fitness space. A standout month was January, when STRIDE Fitness’s visits soared by an impressive 33.6% YoY, surpassing the industry average of 5.7% for the same period.
Psychographic data from the Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph dataset – which looks at the social media activity of a given audience – suggests that STRIDE Fitness’ trade areas are well-positioned to attract those visitors most open to its offerings. Residents of STRIDE Fitness’s potential market are 24% more likely to be, or to be interested in, Endurance Athletes than the nationwide average – compared to just 3% for the Fitness industry as a whole. Similar patterns emerge for Marathon Runners and Triathlon Participants. This indicates that the chain is well-situated near consumers with a passion for endurance sports and long distance running, helping it maintain a competitive edge in the crowded gym market.
Pickleball, a game that blends elements of tennis, ping pong, and badminton, is the fastest-growing sport in the country. And recognizing its broad appeal, some fitness chains have begun incorporating pickleball courts into their facilities.
Arizona-based EōS Fitness added a pickleball court at a Phoenix, AZ location – and early 2024 data highlights the impact of this addition. Between January and April 2024, the location drew between 9.1% and 33.3% more monthly visits than the chain’s Arizona visit-per-location average.
And analyzing the demographic profile of the chain’s location with a pickleball court reinforces the game’s increasingly wide appeal. Young consumer segments have been embracing the game in large numbers – and the Phoenix EōS Fitness location’s potential market includes a significantly higher share of 18 to 34-year-olds than the chain’s overall Arizona potential market. Residents of the pickleball location’s trade area are also less affluent than the chain’s Arizona average.
Pickleball has typically been associated with more affluent consumer segments, and it seems like this may be shifting. With more people than ever embracing the game, gyms that choose to add courts to their facilities may reap the foot traffic benefits.
The Fitness industry has undergone a significant transformation since COVID-19. The category’s outsize post-pandemic visit growth has begun to stabilize, and gyms are staying ahead by adapting to changing consumer preferences. Evenings are emerging as crucial dayparts for gym operators, likely driven by younger consumer segments. And niche fitness chains are seeing visit success, proving that there are plenty of ways for the Fitness segment to succeed.
