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After a strong Q4 2025 that delivered record single-day sales and one of the largest digital acquisition events in McDonald's history, Q1 2026 posed a harder test. Severe weather, pressure on lower-income consumers, and rising gas prices all weighed on the QSR category. So how did McDonald’s perform in Q1? We dove into the data to find out.
Q1 2026 visits to McDonald’s rose 0.6% year over year (YoY), with average visits per location essentially flat at 0.1%. Given Winter Storm Fern’s outsized impact on January traffic and a consumer environment that grew more selective as the quarter progressed, finishing Q1 in positive territory is a meaningful result.
That resilience reflects momentum built in Q4 2025, when McDonald’s delivered across all three of the pillars the company has identified as central to the brand's recovery: value, marketing, and menu. The September 2025 relaunch of Extra Value Meals helped reestablish McDonald’s value positioning, while MONOPOLY – returning to U.S. restaurants for the first time in nearly a decade – became one of the brand’s largest digital customer acquisition events ever. Meanwhile, the December 2025 Grinch Meal, featuring Dill Pickle McShaker Fries and collectible holiday socks, drove the highest single sales day in company history.
McDonald’s carried that strategy into Q1, bringing back the Shamrock Shake in February and launching the Big Arch Burger nationally in March. But in a quarter shaped by weather disruption and more cautious consumer spending, these initiatives generated more muted traffic responses than Q4’s record-setting activations.
The chart below illustrates McDonald’s uneven performance throughout the quarter. January same-store visits fell 1.3% YoY, due in part to Winter Storm Fern, which swept across more than 30 states late in the month, disrupting operations and driving temporary restaurant closures. February rebounded to +3.8% YoY, supported by pent-up demand and the return of the Shamrock Shake, which delivered a modest but discernable lift during its launch week. March, however, slipped back to -1.2% – reflecting the Big Arch Burger's more muted traffic response and possibly also the tightening of consumer purse strings in the face of rising gas prices.
But despite this consumer caution, the response to McDonald's latest pop-culture collab shows that even in a more demanding environment, the right promotion can still cut through.
On March 31 – the launch date of McDonald's collaboration with Netflix's Oscar-winning animated film KPop Demon Hunters – Tuesday visits reached 11.1% above the year-to-date Tuesday average, the highest single Tuesday reading of the entire first quarter. The promotion featured two dueling adult meals inspired by the film's rival groups, HUNTR/X and the Saja Boys, along with limited-time Korean-inspired items like Ramyeon McShaker Fries. And traffic stayed elevated in the days that followed, contributing to the chain's busiest week of the year so far.
Q1 data shows that McDonald’s can still drive traffic at scale, even in a softer environment. But success increasingly depends on executing consistently across value, marketing, and menu – while also delivering the kind of culturally relevant moments that give consumers a compelling reason to visit. How will the chain perform in Q2 as it rolls out its revamped McValue menu?
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Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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Starbucks and Dutch Bros may both operate in the coffee space, but they are pursuing distinct strategies that reflect their different stages of growth. Starbucks, the legacy leader, is focused on revitalizing its established brand. Dutch Bros, the newer, fast-growing entrant, is expanding its footprint and building brand awareness. And AI-powered location analytics suggests that both approaches appear to be working.
Dutch Bros is driving traffic through aggressive expansion, a drive-thru–focused model, and ongoing menu innovation. Meanwhile, Starbucks’ “Back to Starbucks” plan centers on closing underperforming stores, re-emphasizing the coffeehouse experience, and simplifying operations. Both chains may also be benefiting from the current consumer headwinds driving demand for affordable treats, with year-over-year (YoY) same-store visits up every month of the past six months.
In September 2024, Starbucks' then-new CEO Brian Niccol announced the Back to Starbucks turnaround strategy, focusing on reestablishing the brand's core identity as a coffee-first, community-centered brand, centered on high-quality coffee, skilled baristas, and a welcoming in-store experience. It also prioritizes improving service speed and consistency, simplifying operations, and strengthening the overall customer experience.
In September 2024, shortly after becoming CEO, Brian Niccol introduced the company's "Back to Starbucks" turnaround strategy, aimed at restoring the brand’s identity as a coffee-first, community-centered experience built on quality coffee, skilled baristas, and welcoming stores. The plan also emphasizes improving speed and consistency, simplifying operations, and enhancing the overall customer experience.
Traffic data reveals that the restructuring plan is already bearing fruit. Over the past two full quarters (Q4 2025 and Q1 2026) the company's overall traffic and average visits per venue increased 4.9% to 5.9% compared to the previous year – a particularly strong performance given broader consumer headwinds. If sustained, this momentum could signal a meaningful and durable return to growth for the brand.
Concurrently, Dutch Bros’ rapid expansion is translating into strong top-line traffic growth, with overall visits rising at a double-digit pace throughout 2025 and into early 2026. Quarterly gains ranged from 12.3% to 17.9% YoY as the brand entered new markets and scaled its footprint.
At the same time, average visits per location have remained relatively stable, suggesting that new store openings are not significantly cannibalizing existing units. This combination of robust overall traffic growth and steady per-location performance points to a healthy expansion strategy, where footprint growth is driving incremental demand rather than diluting it.
As both brands continue to execute on their respective strategies, early traffic trends suggest that there is no single path to growth in today’s coffee space. Starbucks’ operational reset and Dutch Bros’ expansion-led model are each resonating with consumers, albeit in different ways. The key question going forward will be whether these gains can be sustained as macro pressures persist and competition intensifies.
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In a macroeconomic environment that continues to challenge dining chains, Shake Shack’s performance offers a clear signal of what consumers prioritize in 2026 – familiarity, convenience, and affordable indulgences.
Over the past several years, Shake Shack has expanded its footprint while maintaining solid performance at existing locations. In Q4 2025, total revenue rose nearly 22% year over year, while same-store sales increased 2.1%, driven primarily by pricing alongside a modest (+0.5%) lift in traffic – marking the brand’s 20th consecutive quarter of positive comparable growth. Restaurant-level margins also improved, pointing to stronger execution at the unit level.
And that momentum carried into Q1 2026. Overall visits rose 19.9% YoY, with average visits per location increasing in every month except January, when severe weather – including Winter Storm Fern – likely contributed to a slight 0.4% YoY dip.
A key driver of this consistency is Shake Shack’s alignment with evolving consumer routines. Loyalty has been rising, with repeat visitors accounting for an increasing share of traffic. At the same time, shorter weekday visits are becoming more common, suggesting that more customers are incorporating the brand into their weekly rhythms – whether for a quick lunch or an afternoon treat. And Shake Shack’s newly announced loyalty platform is likely to reinforce this behavior, further embedding the brand into day-to-day routines.
Menu innovation and popular limited-time offers also continue to play a major role in Shake Shack’s growth. Last summer, the nationwide launch of the Dubai Chocolate Pistachio Shake generated significant buzz. And more recently, the chain’s popular Valentine’s Day “True Love Shake” BOGO delivered its busiest day of the year – with visits jumping 14.8% above the typical Saturday baseline.
Shake Shack’s expansion strategy and visitation patterns point to a broader truth about dining in 2026: Success increasingly hinges on fitting seamlessly into everyday life while still delivering moments of excitement. As macroeconomic pressures persist, the brands that can balance routine convenience with craveable, culturally relevant offerings are likely to lead the next phase of growth.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Quick-service restaurants have faced significant headwinds, even as value offerings and limited-time promotions have helped stabilize traffic across the segment. Still, the largest restaurant groups are finding ways to outperform.
The latest visit data shows Yum! Brands and Restaurant Brands International (RBI) pulling ahead of the category – with growth in both cases driven by their leading brands and supported by the strength of their fast-casual concepts.
In Q1 2026, traffic to QSRs rose just 0.1% year over year (YoY), as increasingly cautious consumers pulled back on dining out. Against this backdrop, Yum! Brands’ 2.1% increase in overall portfolio traffic and 3.0% rise in average visits per location represent meaningful outperformance. While RBI lagged slightly in overall traffic, it still modestly outpaced the segment average in per-location traffic.
Diving into brand-level data, Taco Bell – which accounted for nearly three quarters of total Yum! visits in Q1 2026 – remained the company’s clear growth engine. A combination of strategic value pricing, ongoing menu innovation, and a strong digital loyalty program continued to drive same-store traffic growth and broaden the brand’s appeal across income cohorts – including higher-income consumers, families, and younger diners alike.
The Habit Burger Grill, Yum!’s fast-casual concept, also performed well in Q1, with same-store visits up in the mid- to high-single digits throughout the quarter. KFC, meanwhile, in the midst of a turnaround, saw mixed same-store visit trends – as did Pizza Hut, currently the subject of a strategic review.
On the RBI side, QSR leader Burger King continued to lead performance. After reporting a 2.6% same-store sales increase in Q4 2025, the chain delivered a 1.4% YoY rise in overall traffic in Q1 2026, with same-store visits increasing in both February and March. This momentum likely reflects ongoing execution of RBI’s “Reclaim the Flame” strategy, alongside ongoing menu innovation – including the January launch of the Ultimate Steakhouse Whopper, which was met with strong consumer response.
Fast-casual Firehouse Subs, which similarly posted a 2.4% increase in same-store sales in Q4 2025, also remained a bright spot in Q1, with positive same-store visit growth in January and February, and March performance roughly in line with the prior year.
By contrast, Tim Hortons continued to see traffic softness in the U.S., though ongoing expansion plans suggest confidence in its long-term opportunity. And Popeyes faced continued pressure, with RBI actively working to reposition the brand.
Both Yum! and RBI are successfully navigating a challenging QSR environment, driven by the strength of their flagship brands, solid performance in fast-casual concepts, and ongoing investments to stabilize underperforming chains. Will the companies be able to sustain this momentum in the coming months?
Follow Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
After the rollercoaster performance of the retail industry in 2025, the first quarter of 2026 would serve as a barometer for consumer sentiment, resilience and industry stability. In actuality, this past quarter has once again provided obstacles, including winter weather, geo political conflict and retail bankruptcies. However, even for discretionary categories, the outlook still remains positive amidst the uncertainty.
Foot traffic to major brick-and-mortar retail chains were up 1.5% year-over-year Q1 2026. And while some of that growth is due to somewhat easy comparisons, with discretionary industries stagnating over the past few years – especially in the first quarter of last year – the slight increase also suggests that some discretionary categories are beginning to regain traction. And while non-discretionary industries continue to outperform their general merchandise counterparts, there is still plenty to celebrate over the last three months.
The visitation trends this past quarter underscore that consumer resilience remains strong, as consumerism doesn’t take a backseat to economic uncertainty. All of the macro-economic trends point otherwise, with unemployment and layoffs rising, debt accumulating and the housing market cooling, but consumers are still shopping. Retail bifurcation continues, with value based offerings still driving much of the growth, but consumers in the U.S. can’t seem to talk themselves out of being influenced to buy.
Digging into some of the top trends and performances of the quarter, it is easier to see where consumers are putting their attention, and in turn how those categories highlight the shifts in consumer behavior.
One of the largest overall stories of the quarter was the intense winter weather that span across the majority of the country. Winter Storm Fern, which hit the eastern half of the U.S. during the last week of January, had a material impact on foot traffic across categories, in particular non-essential store trips. The week prior (January 19th) brought stock-ups and pre-emptive trips, while the following week brought temporarily shuttered stores and fewer trips in many states. While winter weather has always created disruptions for shoppers, this year felt particularly impactful with more store closures than in previous years.
In times of uncertainty, consumers crave hobbies and experiences that are celebratory and help them to feel good. Participating in or picking-up a new hobby gives consumers some agency and also allows them to connect to others in their communities or through social media. The power of the hobby began to show up on foot traffic in 2025, and the trend has only accelerated faster in the first quarter.
Michaels, Paper Source and Barnes & Noble have all grown traffic in the first quarter of this year, truly underscoring that there is still a place for discretionary spending with today’s consumer. These retailers have all succeeded in building a foundation for shoppers to see these visits as indispensable. This could be due in part to the experiences and services that these retailers offer alongside tangible products, such as stationary & invitations, author signings and readings, and framing service or classes, which help separate a visit from a simple transaction.
The consolidation of retail banners has also benefitted the major names in the hobby, gift and craft category, particularly in the case of Michaels. But, less competition in today’s retail industry doesn’t instantly signal success; these chains have had to define their reason to exist in a digital-first shopping world.
The home improvement category is another area that has reversed its 2025 trend in the first quarter. This category did benefit from favorable comparable periods, but its growth also reflects larger shifts amongst consumers.
Both Lowe’s & Home Depot posted growth in store visits in Q1 2026, a sign that traffic from professionals and do-it-yourself consumers are heading back into building and repair. This traffic increase is all the more impressive given the housing market's current uncertainty as sales slump amidst lower inventory and rising costs – which in some cases may push consumers to pull back on moving or upgrade plans.
It was anticipated that 2025 might bring about a replacement cycle for those who invested in their homes during the pandemic, whether through home improvement or decorating, but this prediction never fully materialized. Now, the positive traffic may indicate that some of that demand may have been delayed, shifting some of the consumption into 2026 as consumers are less bullish on the housing and job markets, and trying to improve what is currently in their possession.
Winter weather was also a factor in the growth for the major retailers, as consumers looked to prepare for storms in advance or outfit their homes with generators, snow removal equipment and other essentials. Looking at the week leading up to winter storm Fern, both major chains benefited from the increased stooking up.
Looking ahead to the second quarter, home improvement retail demand can be subject to volatility in the market. If geopolitical conflict continues and oil prices remain elevated, the cost of home materials could rise and cool the demand for the category once again.
One of the most watched categories as a barometer for discretionary demand has been apparel. It is a category that, in many ways, best exemplifies the current bifurcation of the retail industry based on consumer priorities. Value remains the north star of the category, while full-price chains in apparel, sporting goods and department stores struggle to find their place in the crowd. Even the luxury market has stalled over the last nine months, despite the resilience of higher-income households. Apparel continues to be the bellwether for demand.
Looking at the performance of the category in the first quarter, off-price was once again the winning sector, comping its strong performance last year. Even winter weather didn’t deter shoppers too much, as they looked to off-price chains for key items and winter gear. The frequency of visits to off-price retailers remains a key to their success; repeat visitation is higher for these chains, which helps to boost overall traffic.
Apparel chains and sporting goods retailers fared similarly, with slower traffic overall. Within these subcategories, shifting athleisure preference, value orientation and digital focus all play a role in the tepid performance. There are still some bright spots, with Gap Inc. and Victoria’s Secret improving their business.
A major headline early in the first quarter was the announced bankruptcy and restructuring of Saks Global. As part of the restructuring, the off-price based Saks Off Fifth banner has been shuttered as well as some full line Neiman Marcus and Saks Fifth Avenue locations.
The luxury market has not been immune to the shift in consumer behavior over the past year, and the first quarter of this year has shown a deceleration of traffic to luxury department stores, even despite the gains made last year from brands like Bloomingdale’s and Nordstrom. The stall in traffic to this category reverses much of what happened in 2025, and it will be interesting to see if shoppers return in the coming months.
Beauty, despite some small setbacks in early 2025, continues its dominance as the category to watch for growth. The category began to rebound in the middle of last year, and traffic grew in the first quarter of 2026. Beauty has maintained its momentum through innovation, in-store experience and shifting consumer needs, as the category responds seamlessly to its shoppers.
Major chains like Ulta Beauty and Bath & Body Works led the charge in terms of performance, while smaller brands like Bluemercury faced slower traffic trends. Beauty has always been a category that thrives in economic uncertainty, and with the expansion of the store footprints over the last few years, beauty retailers have been ready for the increased attention.
As mentioned earlier, consumers still want to shop despite lower consumer sentiment, and the dopamine boost of a beauty retail visit can sustain shoppers who might otherwise be trying to limit their spend. Small indulgences are still top of mind for consumers, which certainly will continue to benefit beauty throughout the remainder of the year.
Finally, at the end of the first quarter, it was announced that digitally native footwear retailer, Allbirds, would sell for only $39 million, despite its prior valuation at $4 billion. Digitally native brands have been expanding store fleets once again, but Allbirds serves as a discretionary cautionary tale.
The footwear category has always been dominated by fashion trends; one day a brand is on fire, the next day it’s almost extinct. Allbirds followed a similar trend, with rapid retail expansion during the pre-pandemic period.
As has been the case, remaining relevant to audiences is still a challenge, even for buzz-worthy digitally native brands. Building lasting relationships with shoppers extends beyond being the product of the moment, and many of these brands are pivoting to focus on planting deeper roots.
Digitally native brands have a right to exist in discretionary retail. In many ways, they are responsible for much of the innovation that has come out of general merchandise categories over the past decade. But, there is still a lot of risk in the business of building new brands, and in the case of Allbirds, diversification that might be needed to keep shoppers coming back.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Traffic to brick and mortar retail chains remained essentially flat in March 2026 following a period of steady year-over-year (YoY) gains – although calendar shifts may account for some of the apparent slowdown.
Saturday is typically the busiest day for in-store shopping, and March 2026 had one fewer Saturday than March 2025, which likely weighed on overall foot traffic, as average daily visits on each weekday in March 2026 were all higher than the monthly average. At the same time, the increase in average visits per weekday on most days was smaller than the YoY monthly growth in January and February – suggesting that consumer caution may have also played a role in the March traffic trends. April data should bring more clarity as to how much of the slowdown was driven by a calendar shift versus emerging consumer caution.
Meanwhile, traffic to e-commerce distribution centers skyrocketed in March – with visits rising 16.2% compared to March 2025 – perhaps helped by a different calendar shift. The shift in Easter – from April 20 in 2025 to April 5 in 2026 – likely pulled some holiday shopping into late March, boosting activity.
On the manufacturing side, foot traffic to plants remained relatively flat in March 2026, rising just 0.7% YoY nationwide.
The March ISM Manufacturing PMI showed growth in new orders and production compared to February, while employment declined – pulling foot traffic trends in opposite directions. The muted visit growth suggests facilities are maintaining operational intensity even as headcounts shrink, pointing to manufacturing activity becoming less labor-dependent, with output continuing to drive facility usage despite subdued hiring.
March’s data suggests that underlying consumer and industrial activity remains resilient, with calendar dynamics distorting headline trends rather than signaling a true slowdown. Looking ahead, as calendar effects normalize, retail and logistics activity may better reflect this underlying strength, while manufacturing continues its shift toward higher output with leaner workforces.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The restaurant space has experienced its fair share of challenges in recent years – from pandemic-related closures to rising labor and ingredient costs. Despite these hurdles, the category is holding its own, with total 2024 spending projected to reach $1.1 trillion by the end of the year.
And an analysis of year-over-year (YoY) visitation trends to restaurants nationwide shows that consumers are frequenting dining establishments in growing numbers – despite food-away-from-home prices that remain stubbornly high.
Overall, monthly visits to restaurants were up nearly every month this year compared to the equivalent periods of 2023. Only in January, when inclement weather kept many consumers at home, did restaurants see a significant YoY drop. Throughout the rest of the analyzed period, YoY visits either held steady or grew – showing that Americans are finding room in their budgets to treat themselves to tasty, hassle-free meals.
Still, costs remain elevated and dining preferences have shifted, with consumers prioritizing value and convenience – and restaurants across segments are looking for ways to meet these changing needs. This white paper dives into the data to explore the trends impacting quick-service restaurants (QSR), full-service restaurants (FSR), and fast-casual dining venues – and strategies all three categories are using to stay ahead of the pack.
Overall, the dining sector has performed well in 2024, but a closer look at specific segments within the industry shows that fast-casual restaurants are outperforming both QSR and FSR chains.
Between January and August 2024, visits to fast-casual establishments were up 3.3% YoY, while QSR visits grew by just 0.7%, and FSR visits fell by 0.3% YoY. As eating out becomes more expensive, consumers are gravitating toward dining options that offer better perceived value without compromising on quality. Fast-casual chains, which balance affordability with higher-quality ingredients and experiences, have increasingly become the go-to choice for value-conscious diners.
Fast-casual restaurants also tend to attract a higher-income demographic. Between January and August 2024, fast-casual restaurants drew visitors from Census Block Groups (CBGs) with a weighted median household income of $78.2K – higher than the nationwide median of $76.1K. (The CBGs feeding visits to these restaurants, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each CBG, are collectively referred to as their captured market).
Perhaps unsurprisingly, quick-service restaurants drew visitors from much less affluent areas. But interestingly, despite their pricier offerings, full-service restaurants also drew visitors from CBGs with a median HHI below the nationwide baseline. While fast-casual restaurants likely attract office-goers and other routine diners that can afford to eat out on a more regular basis, FSR chains may serve as special occasion destinations for those with more moderate means.
Though QSR, FSR, and fast-casual spots all seek to provide strong value propositions, dining chains across segments have been forced to raise prices over the past year to offset rising food and labor costs. This next section takes a look at several chains that have succeeded in raising prices without sacrificing visit growth – to explore some of the strategies that have enabled them to thrive.
The fast-casual restaurant space attracts diners that are on the wealthier side – but some establishments cater to even higher earners. One chain of note is NYC-based burger chain Shake Shack, which features a captured market median HHI of $94.3K. In comparison, the typical fast-casual diner comes from areas with a median HHI of $78.2K.
Shake Shack emphasizes high-quality ingredients and prices its offerings accordingly. The chain, which has been expanding its footprint, strategically places its locations in affluent, upscale, and high-traffic neighborhoods – driving foot traffic that consistently surpasses other fast-casual chains. And this elevated foot traffic has continued to impress, even as Shake Shack has raised its prices by 2.5% over the past year.
Steakhouse chain Texas Roadhouse has enjoyed a positive few years, weathering the pandemic with aplomb before moving into an expansion phase. And this year, the chain ranked in the top five for service, food quality, and overall experience by the 2024 Datassential Top 500 Restaurant Chain.
Like Shake Shack, Texas Roadhouse has raised its prices over the past year – three times – while maintaining impressive visit metrics. Between January and August 2024, foot traffic to the steakhouse grew by 9.7% YoY, outpacing visits to the overall FSR segment by wide margins.
This foot traffic growth is fueled not only by expansion but also by the chain's ability to draw traffic during quieter dayparts like weekday afternoons, while at the same time capitalizing on high-traffic times like weekends. Some 27.7% of weekday visits to Texas Roadhouse take place between 3:00 PM and 6:00 PM – compared to just 18.9% for the broader FSR segment – thanks to the chain’s happy hour offerings early dining specials. And 43.3% of visits to the popular steakhouse take place on Saturdays and Sundays, when many diners are increasingly choosing to splurge on restaurant meals, compared to 38.4% for the wider category.
Though rising costs have been on everybody’s minds, summer 2024 may be best remembered as the summer of value – with many quick-service restaurants seeking to counter higher prices by embracing Limited-Time Offers (LTOs). These LTOs offered diners the opportunity to save at the register and get more bang for their buck – while boosting visits at QSR chains across the country.
Limited time offers such as discounted meals and combo offers can encourage frequent visits, and Hardee’s $5.99 "Original Bag" combo, launched in August 2024, did just that. The combo allowed diners to mix and match popular items like the Double Cheeseburger and Hand-Breaded Chicken Tender Wraps, offering both variety and affordability. And visits to the chain during the month of August 2024 were 4.9% higher than Hardee’s year-to-date (YTD) monthly visit average.
August’s LTO also drove up Hardee’s already-impressive loyalty rates. Between May and July 2024, 40.1% to 43.4% of visits came from customers who visited Hardee’s at least three times during the month, likely encouraged by Hardee’s top-ranking loyalty program. But in August, Hardee’s share of loyal visits jumped to 51.5%, highlighting just how receptive many diners are to eating out – as long as they feel they are getting their money’s worth.
McDonald’s launched its own limited-time offer in late June 2024, aimed at providing value to budget-conscious consumers. And the LTO – McDonald’s foray into this summer’s QSR value wars – was such a resounding success that the fast-food leader decided to extend the deal into December.
McDonald’s LTO drove foot traffic to restaurants nationwide. But a closer look at the chain’s regional captured markets shows that the offer resonated particularly well with “Young Urban Singles” – a segment group defined by Spatial.ai's PersonaLive dataset as young singles beginning their careers in trade jobs. McDonald's locations in states where the captured market shares of this demographic surpassed statewide averages by wider margins saw bigger visit boosts in July 2024 – and the correlation was a strong one.
For example, the share of “Young Urban Singles” in McDonald’s Massachusetts captured market was 56.0% higher than the Massachusetts statewide baseline – and the chain saw a 10.6% visit boost in July 2024, compared to the chain's statewide H1 2024 monthly average. But in Florida, where McDonald’s captured markets were over-indexed for “Young Urban Singles” by just 13% compared to the statewide average, foot traffic jumped in July 2024 by a relatively modest 7.3%.
These young, price-conscious consumers, who are receptive to spending their discretionary income on dining out, are not the sole driver of McDonald’s LTO foot traffic success. Still, the promotion’s outsize performance in areas where McDonald’s attracts higher-than-average shares of Young Urban Singles shows that the offering was well-tailored to meet the particular needs and preferences of this key demographic.
While QSR, fast-casual, and FSR chains have largely boosted foot traffic through deals and specials, reputation is another powerful way to attract diners. Restaurants that earn a coveted Michelin Star often see a surge in visits, as was the case for Causa – a Peruvian dining destination in Washington, D.C. The restaurant received its first Michelin Star in November 2023, a major milestone for Chef Carlos Delgado.
The Michelin Star elevated the restaurant's profile, drawing in affluent diners who prioritize exclusivity and are less sensitive to price increases. Since the award, Causa saw its share of the "Power Elite" segment group in its captured market increase from 24.7% to 26.6%. Diners were also more willing to travel for the opportunity to partake in the Causa experience: In the six months following the award, some 40.3% of visitors to the restaurant came from more than ten miles away, compared to just 30.3% in the six months prior.
These data points highlight the power of a Michelin Star to increase a restaurant’s draw and attract more affluent audiences – allowing it to raise prices without losing its core clientele. Wealthier diners often seek unique culinary experiences, where price is less of a concern, making these establishments more resilient to inflation than more venues that serve more price-sensitive customers.
Dining preferences continue to evolve as restaurants adapt to a rapidly changing culinary landscape. From the rise in fast-casual dining to the benefits of limited-time offers, the analyzed restaurant categories are determining how to best reach their target audiences. By staying up-to-date with what people are eating, these restaurant categories can hope to continue bringing customers through the door.
The COVID-19 pandemic – and the subsequent shift to remote work – has fundamentally redefined where and how people live and work, creating new opportunities for smaller cities to thrive.
But where are relocators going in 2024 – and what are they looking for? This post dives into the data for several CBSAs with populations ranging from 500K to 2.5 million that have seen positive net domestic migration over the past several years – where population inflow outpaces outflow. Who is moving to these hubs, and what is drawing them?
The past few years have seen a shift in where people are moving. While major metropolitan areas like New York still attract newcomers, smaller cities, which offer a balance of affordability, livability, and career opportunities, are becoming attractive alternatives for those looking to relocate.
Between July 2020 and July 2024, for example, the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX CBSA, saw net domestic migration of 3.6% – not surprising, given the city of Austin’s ranking among U.S. News and World Report’s top places to live in 2024-5. Raleigh-Cary, NC, which also made the list, experienced net population inflow of 2.6%. And other metro areas, including Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR (3.3%), Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA (1.4%), Oklahoma City, OK (1.1%), and Madison, WI (0.6%) have seen more domestic relocators moving in than out over the past four years.
All of these CBSAs have also continued to see positive net migration over the past 12 months – highlighting their continued appeal into 2024.
What is driving domestic migration to these hubs? While these metropolitan areas span various regions of the country, they share a common characteristic: They all attract residents coming, on average, from CBSAs with younger and less affluent populations.
Between July 2020 and July 2024, for example, relocators to high-income Raleigh, NC – where the median household income (HHI) stands at $84K – tended to hail from CBSAs with a significantly lower weighted median HHI ($66.9K). Similarly, those moving to Austin, TX – where the median HHI is $85.4K – tended to come from regions with a median HHI of $69.9K. This pattern suggests that these cities offer newcomers an aspirational leap in both career and financial prospects.
Moreover, most of these CBSAs are drawing residents with a younger weighted median age than that of their existing residents, reinforcing their appeal as destinations for those still establishing and growing their careers. Des Moines and Oklahoma City, in particular, saw the largest gaps between the median age of newcomers and that of the existing population.
Career opportunities and affordable housing are major drivers of migration, and data from Niche’s Neighborhood Grades suggests that these CBSAs attract newcomers due to their strong performance in both areas. All of the analyzed CBSAs had better "Jobs" and "Housing" grades compared to the regions from which people migrated. For example, Austin, Texas received the highest "Jobs" rating with an A-, while most new arrivals came from areas where the "Jobs" grade was a B.
While the other analyzed CBSAs showed smaller improvements in job ratings, the combination of improvements in both “Jobs” and “Housing” make them appealing destinations for those seeking better economic opportunities and affordability.
Young professionals may be more open than ever to living in smaller metro areas, offering opportunities for cities like Austin and Raleigh to thrive. And the demographic analysis of newcomers to these CBSAs underscores their appeal to individuals seeking job opportunities and upward mobility.
Will these CBSAs continue to attract newcomers and cement their status as vibrant, opportunity-rich hubs for young professionals? And how will this new mix of population impact these growing markets?
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Convenience stores, or c-stores, have been one of the more exciting retail categories to watch over the past few years. The segment has undergone significant shifts, embracing more diverse offerings like fresh food and expanded dining options, while also exploring new markets and adapting to changing consumer needs. We looked at the recent foot traffic data to see what this category's successes reveal about the current state of brick-and-mortar retail.
Convenience stores are increasingly viewed not only as places to fuel up, but as affordable destinations for quick meals, snacks, and other necessities. And analyzing monthly visits to the category shows that it is continuing to benefit from its positioning as a stop for food, fuel, and in some cases, tourism.
Despite lapping a strong H1 2023, visits to the category either exceeded last year’s levels or held steady during all but one of the first eight months of 2024 – highlighting the segment’s ongoing strength. Only in January 2024 did C-stores see a slight YoY dip, likely reflecting a weather-induced exaggeration of the segment’s normal seasonality.
Indeed, examining monthly fluctuations in visits to c-stores (compared to a January 2021 baseline) shows that foot traffic to the category tends to peak in summer months – perhaps driven by summer road trips and vacations – and slow down significantly in winter. Given summer’s importance for convenience stores, the category’s August YoY visit bump is a particularly promising indication of c-stores’ robust positioning this year.
While some C-store chains, like 7-Eleven, have a nationwide presence, others are concentrated in specific areas of the country. But as the popularity of C-stores continues to grow, regional chains like Wawa, Buc-ee’s, and Sheetz are expanding into new territories, broadening their reach.
Wawa, a beloved brand with roots in Pennsylvania, has become synonymous with its fresh sandwiches, coffee, and a highly loyal customer base. Wawa has been a major player in the c-store space in recent years, with a revamped menu driving ever-stronger foot traffic to its Mid-Atlantic region stores. Between January and August 2024, YoY visits to the chain were mostly elevated. And the chain is now venturing into states like Florida – where its store count has grown significantly over the past few years – as well as Georgia and Alabama.
Meanwhile, Texas favorite Buc-ee’s, though known for its enormous stores and mind boggling array of dining options, has a relatively small footprint – but that might be changing. The chain, which also outpaced its already-strong 2023 performance this year, is opening locations in Arkansas and North Carolina, further building on its reputation as a destination for travelers. And Sheetz, another regional chain with a strong presence in Pennsylvania, is also expanding, with plans to open locations in Southern states like North Carolina and Tennessee.
This trend toward regional expansion offers significant opportunities for growth, not only by increasing store count, but also by reaching new consumer bases and target audiences. Customer behavior differs between markets – and by expanding into new areas, c-stores can tap into unique local visitation patterns.
One metric that highlights local differences in consumer behavior is dwell time, or the amount of time a customer spends inside a convenience store per visit. In some regions, visitors tend to move in and out quickly, while in others, customers linger for longer periods of time.
Analyzing convenience store dwell times by state highlights substantial differences in visitor behavior. During the first eight months of 2024, coastal states (with the exception of Oregon) tended to see shorter average dwell times (between 7.5 and 11.8 minutes). On the other hand, in states like Wyoming, Montana, and North Dakota, average dwell times ranged between 21.2 and 28.2 minutes.
Interestingly, the states with the longest dwell times also have some of the highest percentages of truck traffic on interstate highways – suggesting that these longer stops are perhaps made by long-haul truckers looking for a place to shower, relax, and grab a bite to eat.
Even as regional favorites expand their reach, nationwide classic 7-Eleven is taking steps to further cement its growing role as a prime grab-and-go food and beverage destination. And like other dining destinations, the chain relies on limited-time offers (LTOs) to fuel excitement – and visits.
One of the most iconic, and beloved c-store LTOs is 7-Eleven’s Slurpee Day, which falls each year on July 11th. The event, during which all 7-Eleven locations hand out free slurpees, tends to drive significant upticks in foot traffic – and this year was no exception. Visits to the convenience store jumped by a whopping 127.3% on July 11th, 2024 relative to the YTD daily visit average – proving that good deals will bring customers in the door.
The convenience store sector continues building on the impressive growth seen in 2023. As many chains double down on expanding both their regional presence and their offerings, will they continue to drive growth in the coming years?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven convenience store updates.
