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Discount and dollar stores have enjoyed unprecedented success over the past few years as economic uncertainty continues to weigh on consumers’ minds – and wallets. We took a look at two discount players, Five Below and Ollie’s Bargain Outlet, to see where the two are holding as the first half of 2025 draws to a close.
Five Below and Ollie’s were major winners in 2024, with visits to both chains elevated on a consistent basis. Both chains also aggressively expanded their footprints: Ollie's Bargain Outlet acquired around 40 leases from Big Lots, while Five Below opened a remarkable 227 new stores in 2024, with plans for another 150 in 2025.
Their strong positions were clearly reflected in Q1 2025 visit data. Five Below saw foot traffic climb 6.1% YoY, and Ollie's visits grew by 12.4%. Average visits per location were more mixed: Five Below's dipped by 4.6%, while Ollie's Bargain Market maintained momentum with a 4.6% YoY increase.
As its name suggests, Five Below primarily sells items for $5 or less, offering strong value at a time of rising prices – and customers are clearly responding. Five Below's monthly visits remained elevated throughout 2025, peaking in April with a 20.4% YoY increase. Monthly visits per location experienced more fluctuation, dipping in February and March while remaining elevated in January (+1.6%) and April (+10.1%).
Diving into the geographic segments as defined by Esri offers insight into the type of visitor that comes to Five Below – and what it might mean as the chain continues its expansion plans. Between Q1 2019 and Q1 2025, the share of visitors coming to Five Below from "Rural" and "Semi-Rural" areas increased, while the share from "Suburban Periphery" areas declined. This trend aligns with Five Below's deliberate focus on rural and semi-rural locations – a strategic choice likely influenced by existing customer behavior patterns – and might inform where the chain chooses to open its new locations in the coming years.
Foot traffic to Ollie’s Bargain Outlet was elevated for the first few months of 2025. Monthly visits experienced consistent YoY growth, and while average visits per location declined slightly in February 2025, they picked up immediately, ending April 2025 with 8.9% more visits per location than in April 2024. Some of this growth may be coming from its recent expansions – the chain opened 50 new stores in 2024.
While Ollie's differs from Five Below in terms of its product selection and price points, both chains share similarities in the demographic makeup of their visitors. The share of visitors coming from rural trade areas across the income spectrum, as defined by the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset, was higher in Ollie’s captured markets than in its potential markets*. Meanwhile, the share of “Young Urban Singles” and “Upper Suburban Diverse Families” was lower in Ollie’s captured market than in its potential market.
This highlights the strength that the chain has among all kinds of rural visitor segments, and can help inform the chains’ expansion strategy as it grows its footprint in 2025 and beyond.
*A chain’s captured market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to the CBG’s share of visits to the chain – and so reflects the population that actually visits the chain in practice.
Five Below and Ollie’s are holding onto their 2024 gains thus far into 2025. With dozens of stores slated to open in the coming months, will the two retailers continue to grow their foot traffic?
Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven retail insights.
Kohl’s has faced a challenging period marked by store closures, leadership instability and a 6.5% decline in comparable sales last year. So it may come as no surprise that the department store continued to see year-over-year (YoY) visit gaps in Q1 2025 – with YoY foot traffic down nearly every month since August 2024.
Still, Q1 2025 saw the department store’s YoY visit gap shrink to just 2.7%, with March experiencing a slight uptick in visits YoY. Kohl’s narrower Q1 visit gap may be a promising sign for the retailer, especially given the inclement weather that kept many consumers at home in February.
Sephora at Kohl’s also remains a bright spot, contributing to an 8.8% net sales increase in the department store’s Accessories category in 2024. And a regional snapshot of YoY visit trends shows that much of the western United States actually experienced a YoY visit increase in Q1 – a trend the company’s incoming CEO may wish to build upon.
What lies in store for Kohl’s in the months to come?
Follow Placer.ai's data driven retail analyses to find out.
The apparel landscape is constantly adapting to changing consumer preferences and behavior. And in Q1 2025, top sportswear and athleisure brands DICK’s Sporting Goods and lululemon athletica showed that partnering with star athletes and making bold statements at major competitions is one way to build success in the long term. What did location analytics reveal about this strategy? We dove into the data to find out.
Visits to DICK’s and lululemon declined in Q1 2025 compared to 2024, perhaps due in part to the continued emphasis on value-first apparel segments.
Still, diving deeper reveals several reasons for optimism. First, a closer look at YoY monthly visits reveals that February’s performance weighed heavily on the brands’ quarterly performance, as YoY visits dipped significantly due to the comparison to 2024’s leap year and inclement weather that kept many consumers at home. In January, March and April 2025, visits remained closer or even exceeded 2024 levels – more indicative of the brands’ overall performance.
Second, these visit gaps may have been partially offset by success through other channels: Both lululemon and DICK’s recently cited digital revenue gains and omnichannel growth, which could pave the way for other long-term growth opportunities in retail media.
And despite the slower quarter, DICK’s still demonstrated its ability to leverage partnerships and sporting events to drive in-store traffic.
Saturday is typically DICK’s busiest day of the week, and during all five Saturdays in March 2025, visits to DICK’s significantly outperformed the Q1 2025 Saturday average. This is likely due to DICK’s NCAA partnership and media investments during “March Madness”, which saw fans flock to DICK’s to stock up on college basketball gear leading up to and during The Big Dance. DICK’s also capitalized on its March Madness traction by launching a timely celebrity athlete campaign that may also have contributed to elevated Saturday traffic.
Lululemon has also adopted a bold strategy of star-athlete partnerships and high visibility at events to grow brand awareness.
At the WM Phoenix Open at the TPC Stadium Course in Scottsdale, AZ in February 2025, lululemon orchestrated an attention-grabbing crew of identically-dressed fans to accompany brand ambassador and pro-golfer Min Woo Lee. And at the BNP Paribas Open played in Indian Wells, CA, lululemon celebrated its professional tennis ambassadors Frances Tiafoe and Leylah Fernandez with an immersive installation on the tournament grounds and nearby lululemon store.
Diving into the psychographic characteristics of the regions from which lululemon and the two sports venues – TPC Stadium Course and Indian Wells Tennis Garden – receive visits reveals how making a statement during professional contests aligned with lululemon’s goal to grow brand awareness among its target audience.
Perhaps as would be expected, in 2024, lululemon’s potential trade area had more “Athleisure Enthusiasts” – Spatial.ai: FollowGraph segment for likely followers of lululemon and other athleisure brands on social media – than the nationwide average. However, the potential trade areas of Indian Well Tennis Garden and TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course had even higher concentrations of “Athleisure Enthusiasts”. This suggests that by investing in high visibility at these venues, lululemon was likely to build brand awareness among more of its potential visitor base.
Although visits to DICK’s and lululemon lagged in Q1 2025, there is still reason for optimism surrounding these brands. Seasonal sporting events like March Madness, in which DICK’s is an integral part, can play a role in driving traffic to stores. Meanwhile, lululemon appears to have found a formula to reach more of its target audience by making a statement at athletic events.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai.
Like many e-commerce retailers, Wayfair jumped on the brick-and-mortar bandwagon last year with a large-format flagship store at Edens Plaza in Wilmette, IL – giving customers a physical space to explore its products. To mark the store’s one year anniversary (it opened to great fanfare on May 23rd, 2024 – just a few days before Memorial Day), we dove into the data to examine the profile and behavior of its visitors – and see how they compare to the wider home furnishings space.
Location analytics show that Wayfair has emerged as a go-to furniture destination, drawing visitors from farther away than the industry standard. Wayfair’s large-format store also attracts an above-average share of weekend foot traffic, with most visits occurring on Saturdays and Sundays. During these peak times, customers can leisurely browse Wayfair’s extensive offerings, enjoy the onsite café, and take advantage of free design and home improvement consulting services. The store also attracts an affluent audience – from areas with a higher median HHI than either the nationwide baseline or the broader home furnishings segment.
Given Wayfair’s popularity – the Wilmette location has emerged as a major traffic driver to the mall – it may come as no surprise that plans are already in the works to open two more large-format Wayfair locations. How will the retailer continue to fare as it expands its footprint?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analyses to find out.
Overall visits to Gap Banners declined 3.8% in Q1 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, with average visits per location falling 4.2%. The company’s performance appears to have been impacted by a particularly challenging February, when the absence of a leap year day and severe weather events led to a 10.2% drop in overall visits and an 11.0% decrease in average visits per venue compared to February 2024.
The company’s traffic was also somewhat weighed down by Banana Republic’s performance, which posted the largest year-over-year (YoY) declines of all Gap banners during the analyzed period. Meanwhile, the Athleta banner – which struggled somewhat in 2024 – returned to modest growth in Q1 2025, with overall visits up 0.4% and average visits per location up 1.1% YoY.
Gap’s performance improved significantly in April, with the Gap and Old Navy banners seeing YoY increases in both overall visits and average visits per venue. Old Navy in particular saw its overall traffic jump 10.2% and average visits per location increase by 9.1% compared to April 2024 – likely boosted by a tariff-driven pull-forward in consumer demand.
Average visits per venue also increased at Banana Republic and Athleta – although both banners saw minor YoY declines in overall traffic. The positive April data may indicate that the company is gaining traction and could suggest a more robust year ahead.
Ulta saw YoY declines of 3.7% in total visits and 7.1% in average visits per venue in Q1 2025, driven in part by difficult comparisons to a strong Q1 2024. Like Gap, the company’s February performance likely hurt its Q1 performance, with February traffic down 7.4% and average visits per venue down 10.7% compared to February 2024. But Ulta’s visit metrics improved in March 2025, with visits just 1.0% lower than in March 2024, and average visits per venue metrics narrowing to a 4.3% decline.
By April 2025, overall visits were up 0.4% YoY, and visits per venue down just 2.8% – suggesting that Ulta, like Gap, is now on a potential upward trajectory.
While Q1 2025 presented challenges for both Gap and Ulta, the rebound in April traffic offers a hopeful indication of strengthening consumer engagement. Will the companies maintain their momentum, or was the April rally the result of a temporary pull-forward of demand?
Keep up with The Anchor to find out.
In early May 2025, horse racing fans were treated to the 151st Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs in Louisville, KY, with thoroughbred Sovereignty coming out the winner. And while all eyes were on the horses, (and maybe the hats,) we dove into the location analytics and psychographic characteristics of visitors to find out who attends the Kentucky Derby.
Analysis of Churchill Downs’ captured trade area over the last twelve months reveals that the racetrack tends to drive traffic from an affluent visitor base. Between May 2024 and April 2025 the dominant trade area audience segment was “Ultra Wealthy Families” (13.2%) – the Spatial.ai: Personalive grouping for the nation’s wealthiest households. This share of this segment within the racetrack’s trade area was well above the nationwide benchmark, more so than any other leading segment.
But digging deeper reveals Churchill Downs’ trade area contained significant shares of several suburban and rural segments as well, highlighting the non-urban quality of the racetrack’s visitors. The presence of large shares of “Wealthy Suburban Families” (12.1%) and “Upper Suburban Diverse Families” (11.4%) segments reflects a significant affluent suburban audience, while above-average shares of the “Rural Average Income” (8.6%) and “Rural High Income” (7.4%) segments indicates robust visitation from rural households with a range of incomes.
But on Kentucky Derby raceday in 2025, Churchill Downs’ audience changed significantly. The share of “Ultra Wealthy Families” within the venue’s trade area jumped to 20.1%, indicating that the race drove traffic from an even more affluent audience than usual, likely due to the many celebrities and other affluent guests descending on the event. Meanwhile, the share of the “Young Professionals” segment – singles still in school or starting their careers in white-collar and technical jobs – also increased (from 6.0% to 10.3%), perhaps indicating that the Kentucky Derby succeeded in attracting younger urban audiences looking for recreation and a cultural experience.
Still, non-urbanized audience segments remained well-represented within the race’s trade area (only the share of “Rural Average Income” households slipped below the segment’s nationwide benchmark), indicating that the event maintained much of Churchill Down’s typical spectator base.
Analysis of the 2025 Kentucky Derby’s physical trade area, which reflects the regions from which Churchill Downs Racetrack received visitors on the day, provides further insight into the event’s attendees.
The map below shows that the event drew spectators from the country’s major metro areas – and from some of the wealthiest – including New York City, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Miami. And some of these visitors may have come to Louisville for an extended stay – taking advantage of multiple Derby Week events and parties – contributing to a significant economic boost for the region.
Analyzing visitors’ area of origin also revealed robust visitation from Louisville and Lexington, KY, and both urban and non-urban areas in the East North Central region as a whole, as diverse local racing fans appeared to take advantage of their proximity to the most exciting two minutes in sports.
The Kentucky Derby is just the first event of thoroughbred racing’s Triple Crown, which continues with the fast approaching Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes.
What will audiences to these high-stakes races and other upcoming sporting events look like?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
Return-to-office (RTO) trends have been closely watched over the past few years, with relevant stakeholders trying to puzzle out the impact remote and hybrid work have had on business operations and worker performance. And while visits to office buildings, overall, remain below pre-pandemic levels, office recovery varies from city to city – reflecting the complex and nuanced nature of regional economic trends, workforce preferences, and industry-specific needs.
This white paper harnesses location analytics to explore office recovery in the country’s second-largest economy – Los Angeles. The first part of the report is based on an analysis of foot traffic data from Placer.ai’s Los Angeles Office Index – an index comprising 100 office buildings in LA (including several in the greater metro area). The second part of the report broadens the lens to analyze visits by local employees to points of interest (POIs) corresponding to four major LA-area office districts: Century City, Downtown LA, Santa Monica, and Culver City. The white paper examines the impact that return-to-work mandates have had on visits to office buildings, discovers which demographic groups are driving the RTO, and explores the connection between commute time and return-to-office rates.
The return to office in Los Angeles has consistently lagged behind other major cities, underperforming nationwide recovery levels since the pandemic ground in-office work to a virtual halt. Still, the city’s office buildings are seeing a steady increase in visits, with foot traffic tending to spike at the beginning of each year. This indicates that even though office visits in LA are still below national averages, they are on a steady growth trajectory – a promising sign for stakeholders in the city.
A closer examination of Los Angeles office buildings also shows that despite the overall lag, some top-performing buildings in the LA metro area are defying the odds. Visits to the 20 local office buildings with the narrowest Q2 2024 post-COVID visit gaps were down just 8.7% in June 2024 compared to January 2019 – significantly outperforming the nationwide average.
So while overall office recovery in the city is still behind nationwide trends, these top-performing buildings indicate an optimistic outlook for the city’s office spaces.
Diving into the demographics of visitors to LA’s top-performing office buildings reveals an important insight: these buildings are attracting younger workers. This cohort has shown a stronger preference for in-person work compared to their older colleagues.
Analyzing the buildings’ captured markets with psychographics from AGS: Panorama reveals that these buildings are attracting visitors from areas with larger shares of "Emerging Leaders" and "Young Coastal Technocrats" than the broader metro area.
"Emerging Leaders'' – upper-middle-class professionals in early stages of their careers – make up 20.3% of households in the trade areas feeding visits to these top-performing buildings, compared to 14.9% in the broader LA CBSA. Similarly, "Young Coastal Technocrats," young and highly educated professionals in tech and professional services, account for 14.7% of households driving visits to the top-performing buildings, compared to only 12.1% in the broader area.
The trend suggests that companies in these high-performing office buildings employ many early-career professionals eager to accelerate their careers and work in-person with colleagues and mentors. This is a positive sign for the future of the office market in the LA metro area, indicating that it is attractive to key demographic groups that are likely to drive future growth and innovation.
Over the past few years, the debate regarding return-to-office mandates has been a heated one. Will employees follow return-to-office requirements? Can companies enforce the return to office after offering remote and hybrid work options? Recent location analytics data suggests that, at least in the Los Angeles metro area, some return-to-office mandates have been effective.
Three major tech companies – Activision Blizzard, TikTok, and SNAP Inc. – recently made their return-to-office policies stricter. Activision mandated a full return to the office in January 2024. TikTok has also intensified its return-to-office policy while seeking to expand its office presence in the greater Los Angeles area. And SNAP Inc. required employees to return to the office earlier this year as a condition of continued employment.
Visitation patterns at each of these companies' respective headquarters suggest that their policies have directly impacted visit frequency. Since the beginning of the year, the share of repeat office visits (defined as two or more visits per week) has increased for all three locations. Activision saw its share of repeat office visits grow from 52.1% in H1 2023 to 61.4% in the same period of 2024. TikTok’s repeat visits grew from 49.5% to 61.0%, and SNAP’s repeat visits increased from 36.6% to 42.8%.
These numbers highlight how return-to-office policies can lead to noticeable changes in office visit patterns and offer a blueprint to other businesses looking to foster a stronger in-office workforce.
Los Angeles is the second-largest metro area in the country, with several distinct business districts across its sprawling landscape. And a closer look at four major office hubs in the greater LA area – Century City, Downtown LA, Santa Monica, and Culver City – highlights how the office recovery can vary, not just by city or demographic, but on a neighborhood level.
Weekday visits by local employees to all four analyzed business districts have rebounded significantly since 2020 – though each area has followed its own particular trajectory.
Culver City, home to major businesses including Sony Pictures and Disney Digital Network, saw the least pronounced drop in employee visits during the early days of the pandemic. And in Q2 2024, weekday visits by local workers were down just 18.4% compared to Q1 2019.
Century City, on the other hand, saw the most marked drop in local employee foot traffic as the pandemic set in. But the district’s recovery trajectory has also been the most dramatic – with a Q2 2024 visit gap of just 28.5%, smaller than Downtown LA’s 29.7% visit gap. Perhaps capitalizing on this momentum, Century City is expanding its business district with the addition of a major new office building, set to be completed in 2026 and serve as the headquarters for Creative Artists Agency. Santa Monica, for its part, finished off Q2 2024 with a 23.3% visit gap.
Century City stands out within the Los Angeles metropolitan area for its dramatic decline and subsequent resurgence in local employee foot traffic. And looking at another metric of office recovery – employee commute distance – further underscores the district’s remarkable comeback.
The share of employees commuting to Century City from three to seven miles away has nearly returned to pre-COVID levels – suggesting a normalization of commuting patterns by local workers living in the area. In H1 2019, 33.5% of workers in Century City commuted between 3 and 7 miles to work; in 2022, that number had dropped to 29.8%. But by 2024, the share of visitors making that commute had grown to 32.5% – much closer to pre-COVID numbers.
Similarly, the region’s trade area size, which had contracted significantly in the wake of the pandemic, bounced back significantly in 2024. This serves as another indication of Century City’s rebound, cementing Century City’s status as a key business hub within the Los Angeles metropolitan area.
Five years after the upheaval caused by the pandemic, office spaces are still changing. Although the Los Angeles area has taken longer to recover than other major cities, analyzing local visitation data shows significant potential for the city’s business areas. With young employees leading the return-to-office charge, the city is poised to keep driving its strong economy and adjust to an evolving office environment.
Retail media networks (RMNs) have cemented their roles as the future – and present – of advertising. These networks enable advertisers to promote products and services through a retailer’s online properties and physical stores, when consumers are close to the point-of-purchase and primed to buy.
Today, we take a closer look at two newcomers to the retail media space: Costco Wholesale and Wawa. Both chains have an online presence – but both also excel at in-store experiences, offering unique opportunities for consumer engagement and exposure to new products.
This white paper dives into the data to explore some of the key advantages Costco and Wawa bring to the retail media table – and examine how the retailers’ physical reach can best be leveraged to help advertising partners find new audiences.
Wawa and Costco, the latest additions to the growing number of companies with retail media networks, exhibit significant advertising potential. Both brands boast a wide reach and diverse customer base, and both have access to troves of customer data through membership and loyalty programs.
Foot traffic data confirms the robust offline positioning of the two retailers. In Q1 2024, year-over-year (YoY) visits to Costco and Wawa increased 9.5% and 7.5% respectively – showing that their in-store engagement is on a growth trajectory.
And since consumers tend to spend a lot more time in-store than they do on retailers’ websites, Costco’s and Wawa’s strong brick-and-mortar growth positions them especially well to help advertisers reach new customers. In Q1 2024, the average visits to Costco’s and Wawa’s physical stores lasted 37.4 and 11.4 minutes respectively – compared to just 6.7 and 4.6 minutes for the chains’ websites. These longer in-store dwell times can be harnessed to maximize ad exposure and offer partners more extended opportunities for meaningful interactions with customers. Partners can also analyze the behavior and preferences of the two chains’ growing visitor bases to craft targeted online campaigns.
Costco’s retail media network will tap into the on- and offline shopping habits of its staggering 74.5 million members to inform targeted advertising by partners. And the retailer’s tremendous reach offers a significant opportunity to engage customers in-store.
But while Costco is dominant in some areas of the country, other markets are led by competitors like Sam’s Club and BJ’s Wholesale Club. And advertisers looking to choose between competing RMNs or hone in on the areas where Costco is strongest can analyze Costco's performance and visit share – on a local or national level – to determine where to focus their efforts.
An analysis of the share of visits to wholesalers across the country reveals that Costco is the dominant wholesale membership club in much of the Western United States. But Costco also captures the largest share of wholesale club visits in many other major population centers, including important markets like New York, Chicago, Phoenix, and San Antonio. Costco’s widespread brick-and-mortar dominance offers prospective advertising partners a significant opportunity to connect with regional audiences in a wide array of key markets.
Another one of Costco’s key advantages as a retail media provider lies in its highly loyal and engaged audience. In May 2024, a whopping 41.4% of Costco’s visitors frequented the club at least twice during the month – compared to 36.6% for Sam’s Club and 36.0% for BJ’s Wholesale.
Moreover, Costco led in average visit duration compared to its competitors. In May 2024, customers spent an average of 37.1 minutes at Costco – surpassing even the impressive dwell times at Sam’s Club and BJ’s Wholesale Club.
YoY visits per location to Costco, too, were the highest of the analyzed wholesalers, all three of which saw YoY increases. These metrics further establish the wholesaler’s position as an effective retail media provider.
Even when foot traffic doesn't show a brand’s clear regional dominance, location analytics can reveal other metrics that signal its unique potential. Take the Richmond-Petersburg, VA, designated market area (DMA), for example. In May 2024, BJ’s Wholesale Club led the DMA with 41.2% of wholesale club visits, while Costco was a close second with 37.3% of visits.
But despite BJ’s lead in visit share, Costco's Richmond audience was more affluent. Costco's visitors came from trade areas with a median household income (HHI) of $93.2K/year, compared to $73.1K/year for Sam’s Club and $89.5K/year for BJ’s. Additionally, Costco drew a higher share of weekday visits than its counterparts.
Analyzing shopper habits and preferences across chains on a local level can provide crucial context for strategists working on media campaigns. Advertisers can partner with the brands most likely to attract consumers interested in their offerings, and identify where – and when – to focus their advertising efforts.
Convenience stores, or c-stores, are emerging as destinations in and of themselves – and their rising popularity among a wider-than-ever swath of consumers opens up significant opportunities in the retail advertising space.
Wawa is a relative newcomer to the world of retail media, after other c-stores like 7-Eleven and Casey’s launched their networks in 2022 and 2023. But despite coming a bit late to the party, the potential for Wawa’s Goose Media Network is significant – thanks to a cadre of highly loyal visitors who enjoy the physical shopping experience the c-store chain offers.
In May 2024, Wawa’s share of loyal visitors (defined as those who visited the chain at least twice in a month) was 60.1%. In contrast, other leading c-store chains operating in Wawa’s market area – QuickTrip and 7-Eleven, for example – saw loyalty rates of 56.0% and 47.9%, respectively, for the same period.
Additionally, Wawa visitors browsed the aisles longer than those at other convenience retailers. In May 2024, 39.9% of Wawa visitors stayed in-store for 10 minutes or longer, compared to 29.6% at QuickTrip and 25.7% at 7-Eleven.
Wawa's loyal customer base and longer visit durations make it a strong contender in the retail media space. By harnessing this high level of customer engagement, Wawa can draw in advertisers and develop targeted marketing strategies that resonate with its dedicated shoppers.
Wawa has been on an expansion roll over the past few years, with plans to open at least 280 stores over the next decade in North Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, Ohio, Indiana, and Kentucky. The chain has also been steadily increasing its footprint in Florida – between January 2019 and April 2024, Wawa grew from 167 Sunshine State locations to 280, with more to come.
And analyzing changes in Wawa’s visit share in one of Florida’s biggest markets – the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale DMA – shows how successful the chain’s local expansion has been. Between January 2019 and April 2024, Wawa more than doubled its category-wide visit share in the Miami area (i.e. the portion of total c-store visits in the DMA going to Wawa) – from 19.0% to nearly 40.0%.
A look at changes in Wawa’s Miami-Ft. Lauderdale trade area shows that the chain’s growing visit share has been driven by an expanding market and an increasingly diverse audience.
In April 2019, there were some 55 zip code tabulation areas (ZCTAs) in the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale DMA from which Wawa drew at least 3,000 visits per month. By April 2021, this figure grew to 96 – and by April 2024, it reached 129.
Over the same period, the share of “Family Union” households in Wawa’s local captured market – defined by the Experian: Mosaic dataset as families comprised of middle-income, blue collar workers – nearly doubled, growing from 7.4% in April 2019 to 14.4% in April 2024.
Retail media networks that make it easier to introduce shoppers to products and brands that are closely aligned with their preferences and habits offer a win-win-win for retailers, advertisers, and consumers alike. And Costco and Wawa are extremely well-positioned to make the most of this opportunity.
Everybody loves coffee. And with some 75% of American adults indulging in a cup of joe at least once a week, it’s no wonder the industry is constantly on an upswing.
In early 2024, year-over-year (YoY) visits to coffee chains increased nationwide – with every state in the continental U.S. experiencing year-over-year (YoY) coffee visit growth.
The most substantial foot traffic boosts were seen in smaller markets like Oklahoma (19.4%), Wyoming (19.3%), and Arkansas (16.9%), where expansions may have a more substantial impact on statewide industry growth. But the nation’s largest coffee markets, including Texas (10.9%), California (4.2%), Florida (4.2%), and New York (3.5%), also experienced significant YoY upticks.
The nation’s coffee visit growth is being fueled, in large part, by chain expansions: Major coffee players are leaning into growing demand by steadily increasing their footprints. And a look at per-location foot traffic trends shows that by and large, they are doing so without significantly diluting visitation to existing stores.
On an industry-wide level, visits to coffee chains increased 5.1% YoY during the first five months of 2024. And over the same period, the average number of visits to each individual coffee location declined just slightly by 0.6% – meaning that individual stores drew just about the same amount of foot traffic as they did in 2023.
Drilling down into chain-level data shows some variation between brands. Dutch Bros., BIGGBY COFFEE and Dunkin’ all saw significant chain-wide visit boosts, accompanied by minor increases in their average number of visits per location.
Starbucks, for its part, which reported a YoY decline in U.S. sales for Q2 2024, maintained a small lag in visits per location. But given the coffee leader’s massive footprint – some 16,600 stores nationwide – its ability to expand while avoiding more significant dilution of individual store performance shows that Starbucks’ growth is meeting robust demand.
What is driving the coffee industry’s remarkable category-wide growth? And who are the customers behind it? This white paper dives into the data to explore key factors driving foot traffic to leading coffee chains in early 2024. The report explores the demographic and psychographic characteristics of visitors to major players in the coffee space and examines strategies brands can use to make the most of the opportunity presented by a thriving industry.
One factor shaping the surge in coffee visit growth is the slow-but-sure return-to-office (RTO). Hybrid work may be the post-COVID new normal – but RTO mandates and WFH fatigue have led to steady increases in office foot traffic over the past year. And in some major hubs – including New York and Miami – office visits are back to more than 80.0% of what they were pre-pandemic.
A look at shifting Starbucks visitation patterns shows that customer journeys and behavior increasingly reflect those of office-goers. In April and May 2022, for example, 18.6% of Starbucks visitors proceeded to their workplace immediately following their coffee stop – but by 2024, this share shot up to 21.0%.
Over the same period, the percentage of early morning (7:00 to 10:00 AM) Starbucks visits lasting less than 10 minutes also increased significantly – from 64.3% in 2022 to 68.7% in 2024. More customers are picking up their coffee on the go – many of them on the way to work – rather than settling down to enjoy it on-site.
Dunkin’ is another chain that is benefiting from consumers on the go. Examining the coffee giant’s performance across major regional markets – those where the chain maintains a significant presence – reveals a strong correlation between the share of Dunkin’ visits in each state lasting less than five minutes and the chain’s local YoY trajectory.
In Wisconsin, for example, 50.9% of visits to Dunkin’ between January and May 2024 lasted less than five minutes. And Wisconsin also saw the most impressive YoY visit growth (5.9%). Illinois, Ohio, Maine, and Connecticut followed similar patterns, with high shares of very short visits and strong YoY showings.
On the other end of the spectrum lay Tennessee, Alabama, and Florida, where very short visits accounted for a low share of the chain’s statewide total – under 40.% – and where visits declined YoY.
Dunkin’s success with very short visits may be driven in part by its popular app, which makes it easy for harried customers to place their order online and save time in-store. And this is good news indeed for the coffee leader – since customers using the app also tend to generate bigger tickets.
Dutch Bros.’ meteoric rise has been fueled, in part, by its appeal to younger audiences. Recently ranked as Gen Z’s favorite quick-service restaurant, the rapidly-expanding coffee chain sets itself apart with a strong brand identity built on cultivating a positive, friendly customer experience.
And Dutch Bros.’ people-centered approach is resonating especially well with singles – including young adults living alone – who may particularly appreciate the chain’s community atmosphere.
Analyzing the relative performance of Dutch Bros.’ locations across metro areas – focusing on regions where the chain has a strong local presence – shows that it performs best in areas with plenty of singles. Indeed, the share of one-person households in Dutch Bros.’ local captured markets is very strongly correlated with the coffee brand’s CBSA-level YoY per-location visit performance. Areas with higher concentrations of one-person households saw significantly more YoY visit growth in the first part of 2024. (A chain’s captured market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to the CBG’s share of visits to the chain – and so reflects the population that actually visits the chain in practice).
The share of one-person households in Dutch Bros.’ Tucson, AZ captured market, for example, stands at 33.4% – well above the nationwide baseline of 27.5%. And between January and May 2024, Tucson-area Dutch Bros. saw a 6.0% increase in the average number of visits per location. Tulsa, OK, Medford, OR, and Oklahoma City, OK – which also feature high shares of one-person households (over 30.0%) – similarly saw per-location visit increases ranging from 3.6% - 7.0%. On the flip side, Fresno, CA, Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV, and San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX, which feature lower-than-average shares of single-person households, saw YoY per-location visit declines ranging from 1.5%-9.5%.
As Dutch Bros. forges ahead with its planned expansions, it may benefit from doubling down on this trends and focusing its development efforts on markets with higher-than-average shares of one-person households – such as university towns or urban areas with lots of young professionals.
Michigan-based BIGGBY COFFEE is another java winner in expansion mode. With a growth strategy focused on emerging markets with less brand saturation, BIGGBY has been setting its sights on small towns and rural areas throughout the Midwest and South. Though the chain does have locations in bigger cities like Detroit and Cincinnati, some of its most significant markets are in smaller population centers.
And a look at the captured markets of BIGGBY’s 20 top-performing locations in early 2024 shows that they are significantly over-indexed for suburban consumers – both compared to BIGGBY as a whole and compared to nationwide baselines. (Top-performing locations are defined as those that experienced the greatest YoY visit growth between January and May 2024).
“Suburban Boomers”, for example – a Spatial.ai: PersonaLive segment encompassing middle-class empty-nesters living in suburbs – comprised 10.6% of BIGGBY’s top captured markets in early 2024, compared to just 6.6% for BIGGBY’s overall. (The nationwide baseline for Suburban Boomers is even lower – 4.4%.) And Upper Diverse Suburban Families – a segment made up of upper-middle-class suburbanites – accounted for 9.6% of the captured markets of BIGGBY’s 20 top locations, compared to just 7.2% for BIGGBY’s as a whole, and 8.3% nationwide.
Coffee has long been one of America’s favorite beverages. And java chains that offer consumers an enjoyable, affordable way to splurge are expanding both their footprints and their audiences. By leaning into shifting work routines and catering to customers’ varying habits and preferences, major coffee players like Starbucks, Dunkin’, Dutch Bros., and BIGGBY COFFEE are continuing to thrive.
