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The Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index: The office building index analyzes foot traffic data from over 700 office buildings across the country. It only includes commercial office buildings, and commercial office buildings with retail offerings on the first floor (like an office building that might include a national coffee chain on the ground floor). It does NOT include mixed-use buildings that are both residential and commercial.
Return-to-office mandates are once again the talk of the town, with companies from Amazon to AT&T set to crack down on remote work in the new year – in some cases, demanding that workers show up in person five days a week.
But how did the office recovery shape up in December 2024? We dove into the data to find out.
December is typically a quiet month for offices, with many Americans taking time off for the holidays to enjoy vacations and family gatherings. So, it may come as no surprise that office visits in December 2024 dropped to their lowest point of the year.
Compared to December 2019, office visits in December 2024 lagged by 39.2% – a bigger visit gap than that seen in either November (37.8%) or October (34.0%), as employees likely embarked on extended “workations” and enjoyed greater WFH flexibility during the holiday season. Put another way, December 2024 office foot traffic clocked in at 60.8% of pre-pandemic (December 2019) levels.
Still, offices were busier this December than last – in December 2023, the recovery compared to December 2019 stood at just 57.2%.
New York and Miami once again led the regional return to office (RTO) charge with Yo5Y visit gaps of 19.6% and 20.9%, respectively – though both cities’ Yo5Y numbers were weaker than those seen in either October or November.
Atlanta (-34.1%) and Dallas (-35.2%) also outperformed the nationwide average for Yo5Y office foot traffic. And with Dallas-based companies like AT&T and Southwest Airlines starting to enforce stricter in-office policies in the new year, the Texas hub may experience even more accelerated recovery in the coming months. (AT&T also has a strong presence in Atlanta, which may also benefit from the company’s crackdown.)
Meanwhile, San Francisco, which has long lagged in post-pandemic office recovery, finally pulled out of last place in December 2024 with a Yo5Y visit gap of 48.0%, just edging out Chicago. The impressive YoY office visit growth seen by the West Coast hub in recent months – likely fueled in part by Salesforce’s recent RTO mandate – appears to have finally left a tangible mark on the city’s Yo5Y ranking.
Year over year (YoY), visits to office buildings nationwide were up 6.4% in December 2024 – showing that despite seasonal setbacks, office visits remain overall on an upward trajectory. Atlanta (13.7%) and Boston (12.1%) led the way for YoY office recovery, followed by Washington, D.C. (10.6%) and San Francisco (10.4%).
As additional RTO mandates go into effect in the new year, the office recovery needle may move once again. Will additional companies jump on the full-time in-office bandwagon – or will hybrid work models continue to dominate?
Follow placer.ai’s data-driven office index reports to find out.
David’s Bridal and JCPenney have both emerged from bankruptcy proceedings with revitalized operational strategies. We took a closer look at the latest visit trends for the brands and uncovered how the demographics of their audiences have changed along with their real estate footprints.
David’s Bridal closed a significant number of stores in the second half of 2023 as part of its Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings, leading to a year-over-year (YoY) drop in visits in the first half of 2024. But although the impact of the previous year’s rightsizing weighed on YoY visit growth, the second half of the year marked a turning point. Lapping the mid-2023 period of aggressive store closures, visits rebounded in August 2024 (3.5% visit growth YoY), and stayed close to or exceeded the previous year’s levels through the end of 2024 (6.3% visit growth YoY), signaling a stabilization in consumer traffic.
David’s Bridal's YoY visits per location numbers showcase the brand's resilience even more clearly. Visits per location were near or exceeded 2023 levels for most of 2024, and saw significant lifts in summer and fall – the most popular wedding seasons. This trend suggests that the retailer’s slimmed-down store fleet remains relevant in the bridal and occasion-attire space, particularly during critical retail moments – and highlights the chain’s ability to drive increased traffic to a smaller real estate footprint. More recent initiatives such as the October 2024 launch of a revamped loyalty program and a December 2024 partnership with delivery giant DoorDash also bode well for the brand’s growth potential in 2025.
JCPenney accelerated a years-long fleet consolidation strategy when it emerged from bankruptcy in 2020 and completed the bulk of its rightsizing campaign by the end of 2021. In 2023, the retailer announced a $1 billion, multi-year reinvestment plan to make massive improvements to operations and the customer experience.
The strategic reinvestment appears to be working: Last year, JCPenney steadily closed its YoY visit and visits per location gaps, which shrank to just -3.0% and -1.8%, respectively in Q4 ‘24 – signaling a sustained foot traffic turnaround for the brand.
Several of JCPenney’s recent initiatives likely played a part in the brand’s upward foot traffic trajectory. During fiscal Q3, the brand invested $51 million in store operations – part of the $1 billion earmarked in 2023 – and saw positive results from a Thursday Night Football promotion and a revamped loyalty program. This indicates that JCPenney may be able to sustain its foot traffic momentum with additional campaigns and continued investment in its stores – and with the chain's recently announced merger with Forever 21, 2025 is looking particularly bright.
While both chains’ foot traffic is on the rise, analysis of David’s Bridal’s and JCPenney’s trade areas reveals a key difference in the two companies’ audience strategies.
In Q4 ‘22, the median household income (HHI) in the captured markets of David’s Bridal and JCPenney was lower than in their potential markets – meaning that both chains attracted visitors from the lower-income households within their wider trade areas. But by Q4 ‘24, David’s Bridal captured market had a higher HHI than its potential market – meaning that it was now attracting the more affluent residents within its trade area. Meanwhile, the median HHI in JCPenney’s captured market continued to fall short of the median HHI in its potential market – although both its captured and potential market HHI has increased over the years.
The now elevated median HHI of David’s Bridal’s captured market suggests that the brand’s rightsizing efforts are driving traffic from a higher-income audience to its remaining locations. And given the relatively high price of wedding gowns, the chain’s recent popularity among more affluent consumers offers another indication of David’s Bridal newfound strength. JCPenney, on the other hand, has stated its commitment to maintaining accessible price points in order to best serve “America’s working families” as the chain continues to attract the lower-income shoppers within its trade area.
The successful turnaround of JCPenney and David’s Bridal – despite their appeal to very different audiences – showcases the various paths available for retail resurgences in today’s consumer landscape.
David’s Bridal and JCPenney serve as powerful examples of how strategic rightsizing and targeted investments can drive a foot traffic turnaround. Both brands have leveraged smaller, optimized real estate footprints and successful promotional activity to boost visits per location and appeal to their target audiences.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai.
About the Placer 100 Index for Retail & Dining: The Placer 100 Index for Retail and Dining is a curated, dynamic list of leading chains that often serve as prime tenants for shopping centers and malls. The index includes chains from various industries, such as superstores, grocery, dollar stores, dining, apparel, and more. The goal of the index is to provide insight into the wider trends impacting the retail, dining and shopping center segments.
In December 2024, retail and dining visitation slowed slightly, with overall visits to the Placer 100 Retail & Dining Index down 0.8% year over year (YoY). The December dip was likely due in part to an extra Saturday last year – the busiest day of the week for many retail and dining chains.
But comparing overall visits in November and December 2024 to the same months in 2023 shows that visits to the Placer 100 Index remained on par with 2023 levels (+0.0%) during the last two months of the year. So despite headwinds and a shorter shopping season (just 28 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, compared to 33 last year), brick-and-mortar retail and dining establishments ultimately attracted the same number of holiday season visits, all told, as they did last year.
Ever since the launch of Chili’s Big Smasher Burger promotion in late April 2024, YoY visits to Chili’s have been on the rise, buoyed by diners eager to indulge in a full-service experience at a QSR price point. And in December 2024, the chain once again topped the Placer 100 rankings, with visits to the chain up an impressive 21.0% YoY – fewer Saturdays notwithstanding.
Fitness clubs also figured prominently on December’s Placer 100 list, as did budget mainstay Aldi – underscoring the continued robust demand for no-frills, value-oriented grocery offerings. Notably, Family Dollar saw a 4.2% YoY increase in average visits per location – potentially reflecting the success of parent company Dollar Tree’s rightsizing efforts. Meanwhile, Big Lots saw a 5.2% YoY visit bump, likely fueled by strong consumer interest in its liquidation sales.
But value wasn’t the only winner of this year’s holiday season. Upscale department store Nordstrom enjoyed a substantial YoY visit uptick in November and December 2024 – with overall visits to the chain rising 6.5%. This stands in sharp contrast to the wider department stores sector, which experienced a 3.2% decline during the same period.
A look at the demographic profile of Nordstrom’s captured market shows that the chain’s success is likely due in part to its affluent – and young – customer base. In November and December 2024, the median household income of the census block groups (CBGs) from which Nordstrom drew its shoppers – weighted to reflect the share of visitors from each CBG – stood at $113.1K, significantly higher than the $81.3K median for the wider department store space. Nearly a third of Nordstrom's captured market (27.4%) was composed of “Ultra Wealthy Families” – compared to 9.5% for the sector as a whole. And unlike other department stores, which were slightly less likely than average to attract “Young Professionals,” that segment made up 9.7% of Nordstrom’s captured market, well above the nationwide baseline of 5.8%. As Gen-Z leads the charge back to malls, Nordstrom’s robust foothold among younger consumers bodes well for its future success.
Like many department stores, Nordstrom relies on the holiday season to bolster its annual bottom line – in 2024, November and December visits accounted for nearly a quarter (22.5%) of the chain’s total visits for the year. A strong performance during these critical months is a positive signal of good things to come – and with the chain being taken private by its founding family, we may see moves aimed at further solidifying Nordstrom’s position in the months ahead.
Despite fewer shopping days, the 2024 holiday shopping season proved resilient – with overall visits to the Placer 100 Retail & Dining Index remaining on par with 2023 levels. While value chains continued to dominate the rankings, upscale retailers like Nordstrom also enjoyed significant success. What trends will the Placer 100 Index uncover in the new year?
Visit placer.ai to find out.
About the Mall Index: The Index analyzes data from 100 top-tier indoor malls, 100 open-air shopping centers (not including outlet malls) and 100 outlet malls across the country, in both urban and suburban areas. Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the country.
Malls demonstrated their resilience once again in 2024, will traffic to the three shopping formats essentially on par with 2023 levels despite the ongoing consumer headwinds. Indoor malls and open-air shopping centers even saw slight increases – of 1.5% and 1.7% year-over-year (YoY), respectively – while outlet malls experienced a minimal visit decline of 0.4%.
So although YoY visits dipped at all three mall formats in December 2024 – likely due to the month having one less Saturday than December 2023 – malls appear well positioned going into 2025.
The 2024 traffic performance of each format may be correlated with the income levels of the format’s visitor base. Open-air shopping centers, which received the largest YoY visit boost, also attracted the most affluent visitors who were likely less impacted by the ongoing consumer headwinds. Meanwhile outlet malls – which saw slight YoY traffic dips – drew visitors from areas with the lowest household income.
The holidays are particularly busy for shopping centers as consumers shop Black Friday discounts, meet mall Santas, buy gifts, and hang out with family and friends. But comparing average daily visits between Black Friday (November 11th) and New Years Eve (December 31st) with average daily visits during the rest of the year (January 1st to November 28th) reveals that the holiday boost is not distributed equally across the three mall formats.
Outlet malls received the largest Holiday-driven visit boost and Indoor malls came in at a close second, with visits during the holiday season up 59.3% and 57.0%, respectively. Open-air shopping centers lagged behind the other two formats, with daily visits up just 31.4% compared to the rest of the year.
Diving deeper into the data reveals that weekdays receive the largest lift, with weekday traffic at indoor and outlet malls during the holiday season up 63.0% and 66.4%, respectively, compared to the non-holiday season daily average.
The holidays don’t just drive an increase in traffic – dwell time at malls also tends to be longer between Black Friday and New Years Eve when compared to the rest of the year. Visit length at indoor and outlet malls increased by an average of 4.7 minutes, while dwell time at open-air shopping centers grew by an average of 3.1 minutes.
Malls’ holiday success proves once again that shopping centers continue to play an important role in the wider retail landscape. How will indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls perform in 2025?
Visit placer.ai to find out.
With 2024 firmly in the rearview mirror, we look back on the year’s retail foot traffic trends and what they may signal for 2025. Read on for a closer analysis of the retail categories and states that excelled at driving growth.
Overall retail visits increased year-over-year for most months of 2024, with many of the sporadic visit gaps likely due to extraneous circumstances as opposed to any real consumer slowdown.
Last year’s largest YoY retail visit gap – in January 2024 – could be attributed to severe winter weather in large parts of the country. And the April, September, and December YoY visit dips are likely partially due to calendar shifts, with April 2024 affected by the Easter calendar shift and September and December disadvantaged by having one less Saturday than in 2023.
Still, looking at 2024 as a whole revealed that the year did outperform 2023, with overall retail visits up 0.4% – suggesting that consumer behavior remains resilient and that 2025 could mark a further turnaround if cooling inflation meets consumer expectations.
But diving deeper into the data reveals significant variation among the major retail categories. Discount & dollar stores (2.8% YoY growth) and superstores (1.7% YoY growth) came out ahead of the pack, highlighting consumers’ demand for value in the face of high prices and economic uncertainty. Meanwhile – and as might be expected in a period of financial strain – many discretionary retail categories lagged in 2024. The Furniture & Home Furnishings category in particular saw the steepest decline with negative visit trends from January to July 2024, but the category did finish strong with a 3.5% YoY increase in Q4 2024 visits – a promising sign for 2025.
Last year’s retail foot traffic gains were also unevenly distributed geographically.
While most states saw modest YoY visit growth, Maine (2.2%) and North Dakota (2.0%) topped the list in 2024. Notably, foot traffic in both states showed resilience during even the most challenging periods of the year.
In Maine, a recent increase in inbound domestic migration may have contributed to the state’s foot traffic success. Meanwhile, North Dakota’s large share of superstore and discount & dollar store traffic was likely behind its overall retail visit growth in 2024.
Analyzing 2024 retail trends revealed that consumers navigated uncertainty while showcasing resilience — a promising foundation for the new year. Will this momentum continue in 2025?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
Florida emerged as a domestic relocation hotspot during the pandemic – and analyzing domestic migration trends over the past four years reveals that most newcomers to Florida have stayed in the Sunshine State. We dove into the data to find out just how big a piece of the domestic relocation pie went to Florida – and see where the newcomers came from, where they chose to settle, and which Florida destinations attracted the most affluent new residents.
Domestic migration picked up over the pandemic, as many Americans liberated from the constraints of in-person work chose to move to areas with more space, a lower cost of living, and better outdoor recreational opportunities.
The map below highlights the states that received net inbound domestic migration between July 2020 and July 2024, with the percentages representing the share of inter-state positive net migration welcomed by each state during the analyzed period.
As the map shows, Florida was one of the major beneficiaries of the recent domestic migration boom. Between July 2020 and July 2024, Florida received 24.7% of positive intra-state migration in the United States. (In other words, 24.7% of inbound net migration to states with overall positive net migration went to Florida.) Texas, another oft-discussed pandemic relocation hub, came in second, receiving a significantly smaller 17.6% of the total inter-state positive net migration pie.
Most of Florida’s recent population influx dates back to the Covid era – diving deeper into the monthly data reveals that the biggest jump in migration over the past four years took place between late 2020 and early 2022. And although inbound migration slowed somewhat in 2023 and 2024, the Sunshine State’s net migrated percent of population compared to a July 2020 baseline remained steady at about 2.5% to 3.1% (depending on the season). This means that 2.5% to 3.1% of Florida’s residents have moved there over the past four years – indicating that most people who moved to Florida at the height of the pandemic have remained in the Sunshine State.
So where is Florida getting its new residents from?
Analyzing net migration to Florida by state of origin reveals that Florida received net positive migration from most of the country during the analyzed period – but the influx from some states was particularly significant.
The map below charts the share of net migration to and from Florida by state of origin or destination between July 2020 and July 2024. The purple represents states from which Florida received net positive migration – more people moved to Florida from those states than the other way around – and the percentage indicates each state's share of the total net positive migration to Florida. The yellow represents states which received net positive migration from Florida – more people moved to those states from Florida than vice versa – with the percentage showing each state's share of the total net negative migration from Florida.
As the data shows, much domestic migration to the Sunshine State came from the Mid Atlantic region – with relatively expensive New York and New Jersey standing out as the biggest feeder states – as well as from Illinois and California, two more high-cost-of-living states. Illinois and the Mid Atlantic states also tend to have relatively cold winters. Meanwhile, Florida mostly lost residents to neighboring states and to Texas, with a much smaller share of its net negative migration going to Alaska, Michigan, Montana, Wyoming, and the Dakotas.
It is likely, then, that Florida’s affordability and mild winters served as significant migration draws.
People may be moving to Florida from all over the United States. But where are they moving to in the Sunshine State? Mapping domestic migration trends onto Florida’s metro areas reveals that most of the inbound domestic migration is concentrated in Central Florida. Indeed, just three Central Florida metro areas – Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, and Lakeland-Winter Haven – accounted for nearly half (41.5%) of the total net positive migration to Florida during the analyzed period.
Although the Tampa, Orlando, and Lakeland metro areas are contiguous, the demographic profiles of new residents settling in the three CBSAs are quite different. For example, Tampa, which boasts the highest median household income (HHI) of the three metro areas ($65.1K, compared to $61.1K for Orlando and $55.1K for Lakeland), also drew the greatest share of domestic migrants from affluent areas (median HHI > $100K).
Each of the three central Florida CBSAs also attracted newcomers from different areas of the country. Tampa exhibited the most diversity, with its top 5 CBSAs of origins representing under 50% of total net migration to the metro area. Orlando, on the other hand, received almost 50% of its net domestic migration between July 2020 and July 2024 from just two metro areas: New York and Miami. And for Lakeland, over 50% of the inbound net migration came from within the Sunshine State – including 31.6% from the Orlando CBSA and 9.5% from the Tampa metro area.
It is likely, then, that newcomers to Tampa are coming mostly from wealthy areas throughout the country, while Orlando draws slightly less affluent – but still relatively high-income – newcomers from dense urban areas. Meanwhile, Lakeland appears to attract local Floridians who may be looking for a more affordable living situation without moving too far away from their current communities.
Thanks to its mild winters, affordability, and lifestyle appeal, Florida emerged as a major pandemic relocation destination, and recent migration data reveals that many of those who moved in between 2020 and 2024 have stayed in the Sunshine State. In particular, the central Florida hubs of Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, and Lakeland-Winter Haven attracted an outsize share of new Florida residents, with each metro area showcasing unique inbound migration patterns.
What will domestic migration patterns look like in 2025?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
The first Lollapalooza – a four-day music festival – took place in 1991. Chicago’s Grant Park became the event’s permanent home (at least in the United States) in 2005, drawing thousands of revelers and music fans to the park each year.
This year, the festival once again demonstrated its powerful impact on the city. On August 1st, 2024, visits to Grant Park surged by 1,313.2% relative to the YTD daily average, as crowds converged on the park to see Chappell Roan’s much-anticipated performance. And during the first three days of the event, the event drew significantly more foot traffic than in 2023 – with visits up 18.9% to 35.9% compared to the first three days of last year’s festival (August 3rd to 5th, 2023).
Lollapalooza led to a dramatic spike in visits to Grant Park – and it also attracted a different type of visitor compared to the rest of the year.
Analyzing Grant Park’s captured market with Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive dataset reveals that Lollapalooza attendees are more likely to belong to the “Young Professionals” and “Ultra Wealthy Families” segment groups than the typical Grant Park visitor.
By contrast, the “Near-Urban Diverse Families” segment group, comprising middle-class diverse families living in or near cities, made up only 6.5% of visitors during the festival, compared to 12.0% during the rest of the year.
Additionally, visitors during Lollapalooza came from areas with higher HHIs than both the nationwide baseline of $76.1K and the average for park visitors throughout the year. Understanding the demographic profile of visitors to the park during Lollapalooza can help planners and city officials tailor future events to these segment groups – or look for ways to make the festival accessible to a wider range of music lovers.
Lollapalooza’s impact on Chicago extended beyond the boundaries of Grant Park, with nearby hotels seeing remarkable surges in foot traffic. The Congress Plaza Hotel on South Michigan Avenue witnessed a staggering 249.1% rise in visits during the week of July 29, 2024, compared to the YTD visit average. And Travelodge on East Harrison Street saw an impressive 181.8% increase. These spikes reflect the festival’s draw not just for locals but for out-of-town visitors who fill hotels across the city.
The North Michigan Avenue retail corridor also enjoyed a significant increase in foot traffic during the festival, with visits on Thursday, August 1st 56.0% higher than the YTD Thursday visit average. On Friday, August 2nd, visits to the corridor were 55.7% higher than the Friday visit average. These numbers highlight Lollapalooza’s role in driving economic activity across Chicago, as festival-goers venture beyond the park to explore the city’s vibrant retail and hospitality offerings.
City parks often serve as community hubs, and Flushing Meadows Corona Park in Queens, NY, has been a major gathering point for New Yorkers. The park hosted one of New York’s most beloved summer concerts – Governors Ball – which moved from Governors Island to Flushing Meadows in 2023.
During the festival (June 9th -11th, 2024), musicians like Post Malone and The Killers drew massive crowds to the park, with visits soaring to the highest levels seen all year. On June 9th, the opening day of the festival, foot traffic in the park was up 214.8% compared to the YTD daily average, and at its height, on June 8th, the festival drew 392.7% more visits than the YTD average.
The park also hosted other big events this summer – a July 21st set by DMC helped boost visits to 185.1% above the YTD average. And the Hong Kong Dragon Boat Festival on August 3rd and 4th led to major visit boosts of 221.4% and 51.6%, respectively.
These events not only draw large crowds, but also highlight the park’s role as a space where cultural and civic life can find expression, flourish, and contribute to the health of local communities.
Analyzing changes in Flushing Meadows Corona Park’s trade area size offers insight into how far people are willing to travel for these events. During Governors Ball, for example, the park’s trade area ballooned to 254.5 square miles, showing the festival's wide appeal. On July 20th, by contrast, when the park hosted several local bands and DJs, the trade area was a much more modest 57.0 square miles.
Summer events drive community engagement, economic activity, and civic pride. Cities that invest in their parks and event hubs, fostering lively and inclusive spaces, can create lasting value for both residents and visitors, enriching the cultural and social life of urban areas.
For more data-driven civic stories, visit Placer.ai.
The pandemic and economic headwinds that marked the past few years presented the multi-billion dollar hotel industry with significant challenges. But five years later, the industry is rallying – and some hotel segments are showing significant growth.
This white paper delves into location analytics across six major hotel categories – Luxury Hotels, Upper Upscale Hotels, Upscale Hotels, Upper Midscale Hotels, Midscale Hotels, and Economy Hotels – to explore the current state of the American hospitality market. The report examines changes in guest behavior, personas, and characteristics and looks at factors driving current visitation trends.
Overall, visits to hotels were 4.3% lower in Q2 2024 than in Q2 2019 (pre-pandemic). But this metric only tells part of the story. A deeper dive into the data shows that each hotel tier has been on a more nuanced recovery trajectory.
Economy chains – those offering the most basic accommodations at the lowest prices – saw visits down 24.6% in Q2 2024 compared to pre-pandemic – likely due in part to hotel closures that have plagued the tier in recent years. Though these chains were initially less impacted by the pandemic, they were dealt a significant blow by inflation – and have seen visits decline over the past three years. As hotels that cater to the most price-sensitive guests, these chains are particularly vulnerable to rising costs, and the first to suffer when consumer confidence takes a hit.
Luxury Hotels, on the other hand, have seen accelerated visit growth over the past year – and have succeeded in closing their pre-pandemic visit gap. Upscale chains, too, saw Q2 2024 visits on par with Q2 2019 levels. As tiers that serve wealthier guests with more disposable income, Luxury and Upscale Hotels are continuing to thrive in the face of headwinds.
But it is the Upper Midscale level – a tier that includes brands like Trademark Collection by Wyndham, Fairfield by Marriott, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts, and Hampton by Hilton – that has experienced the most robust visit growth compared to pre-pandemic. In Q2 2024, Upper Midscale Hotels drew 3.5% more visits than in Q2 2019. And during last year’s peak season (Q3 2023), Upper Midscale hotels saw the biggest visit boost of any analyzed tier.
As mid-range hotels that still offer a broad range of amenities, Upper Midscale chains strike a balance between indulgence and affordability. And perhaps unsurprisingly, hotel operators have been investing in this tier: In Q4 2023, Upper Midscale Hotels had the highest project count of any tier in the U.S. hotel construction and renovation pipeline.
The shift in favor of Upper Midscale Hotels and away from Economy chains is also evident when analyzing changes in relative visit share among the six hotel categories.
Upper Midscale hotels have always been major players: In H1 2019 they drew 28.7% of overall hotel visits – the most of any tier. But by H1 2024, their share of visits increased to 31.2%. Upscale Hotels – the second-largest tier – also saw their visit share increase, from 24.8% to 26.1%.
Meanwhile, Economy, Midscale, and Upper Upscale Hotels saw drops in visit share – with Economy chains, unsurprisingly, seeing the biggest decline. Luxury Hotels, for their parts, held firmly onto their piece of the pie, drawing 2.8% of visits in H1 2024.
Who are the visitors fueling the Upper Midscale visit revival? This next section explores shifts in visitor demographics to four Upper Midscale chains that are outperforming pre-pandemic visit levels: Trademark Collection by Wyndham, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts, Fairfield by Marriott, and Hampton by Hilton.
Analyzing the captured markets* of the four chains with demographics from STI: Popstats (2023) shows variance in the relative affluence of their visitor bases.
Fairfield by Marriott drew visitors from areas with a median household income (HHI) of $84.0K in H1 2024, well above the nationwide average of $76.1K. Hampton by Hilton and Trademark Collection by Wyndham, for their parts, drew guests from areas with respective HHIs of $79.6K and $78.5K – just above the nationwide average. Meanwhile, Holiday Inn Express by IHG Hotels & Resorts drew visitors from areas below the nationwide average.
But all four brands saw increases in the median HHIs of their captured markets over the past five years. This provides a further indication that it is wealthier consumers – those who have had to cut back less in the face of inflation – who are driving hotel recovery in 2024.
(*A chain’s captured market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to the CBG’s share of visits to the chain – and so reflects the population that actually visits the chain in practice.)
Much of the Upper Midscale visit growth is being driven by chain expansion. But in some areas of the country, the average number of visits to individual hotel locations is also on the rise – highlighting especially robust growth potential.
Analyzing visits to existing Upper Midscale chains in four metropolitan areas with booming tourism industries – Salt Lake City, UT, Palm Bay, FL, San Diego, CA, and Richmond, VA – shows that these markets feature robust untapped demand.
Utah, for example, has emerged as a tourist hotspot in recent years – with millions of visitors flocking each year to local destinations like Salt Lake City to see the sights and take in the great outdoors. And Upper Midscale hotels in the region are reaping the benefits. In H1 2024, the overall number of visits to Upper Midscale chains in Salt Lake City was 69.4% higher than in H1 2019. Though some of this increase can be attributed to local chain expansion, the average number of visits to each individual Upper Midscale location in the area also rose by 12.5% over the same period.
Palm Bay, FL (the Space Coast) – another tourist favorite – is experiencing a similar trend. Between H1 2019 and H1 2024, overall visits to local Upper Midscale hotel chains grew by 36.4% – while the average number of visits per location increased a substantial 16.9%. Given this strong demand, it may come as no surprise that the area is undergoing a hotel construction boom. Upper Midscale hotels in other areas with flourishing tourism sectors, like San Diego, CA and Richmond, VA, are seeing similar trends, with increases in both overall visits and and in the average number of visits per location.
Though Economy chains have underperformed versus other categories in recent years, the tier does feature some bright spots. Some extended-stay brands in the Economy tier – hotels with perks and amenities that cater to the needs of longer-stay travelers – are succeeding despite category headwinds.
Choice Hotels’ portfolio, for example, includes WoodSpring Suites, an Economy chain offering affordable extended-stay accommodations in 35 states. In H1 2024, the chain drew 7.7% more visits than in the first half of 2019 – even as the wider Economy sector continued to languish. InTown Suites, another Economy extended stay chain, saw visits increase by 8.9% over the same period.
And location intelligence shows that the success of these two chains is likely being driven, in part, by their growing appeal to young, well-educated professionals. In H1 2019, households belonging to Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s “Young Professionals” segment made up 9.6% of WoodSpring Suites’ captured market. But by H1 2024, the share of this group jumped dramatically to 13.3%. At the same time, InTown Suites saw its share of Young Professionals increase from 12.0% to 13.4%.
Whether due to an affinity for prolonged “workcations” (so-called “bleisure” excursions) or an embrace of super-commuting, younger guests have emerged as key drivers of growth for the extended stay segment. And by offering low–cost accommodations that meet the needs of these travelers, Economy chains can continue to grow their share of the pie.
The hospitality industry recovery continues – led by Upper Midscale Hotels, which offer elevated experiences that don’t break the bank. But today’s market has room for other tiers as well. By keeping abreast of local visitation patterns and changing consumer profiles, hotels across chain scales can personalize the visitor experience and drive customer satisfaction.
The past few years have provided the tourism sector with a multitude of headwinds, from pandemic-induced lockdowns to persistent inflation and a rise in extreme weather events. But despite these challenges, people are more excited than ever to travel – more than half of respondents to a recent survey are planning on increasing their travel budgets in the coming months.
And while revenge travel to overseas destinations is still very much alive and well, the often high costs associated with traveling abroad are shaping the way people choose to travel. Domestic travel and tourism are seeing significant growth as more affordable alternatives.
This white paper takes a closer look at two of the most popular domestic tourism destinations in the country – New York City and Los Angeles. Over the past year, both cities have continued to be leading tourism hotspots, offering a wealth of attractions for visitors. What does tourism to these two cities look like in 2024, and what has changed since before the pandemic? How have inflation and rising airfare prices affected the demographics and psychographics of visitors to these major hubs?
Analyzing the distribution of domestic tourists across CBSAs nationwide from May 2023 to April 2024 reveals New York and Los Angeles to be two of the nation’s most popular destinations. (Tourists include overnight visitors staying in a given CBSA for up to 31 days).
The New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA metro area drew the largest share of domestic tourists of any CBSA during the analyzed period (2.7%), followed closely by the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA CBSA (2.5%). Other domestic tourism hotspots included Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL (tied for second place with 2.5% of visitors), Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX (1.9%), Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV (1.8%), Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL (1.8%), and Chicago-Naperville, Elgin, IL-IN-WI (1.6%).
The Big Apple. The City That Never Sleeps. Empire City. Whatever it’s called, New York City remains one of the most well-known tourist destinations in the world. And for many Americans, New York is the perfect place for an extended weekend getaway – or for a multi-day excursion to see the sights.
But where do these NYC-bound vacationers come from? Diving into the data on the origin of visitors making medium-length trips to New York City (three to seven nights) reveals that increasingly, these domestic tourists are coming from nearby metro areas.
Between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024, for example, the number of tourists visiting New York City from the Philadelphia metro area increased by 19.2%.
The number of tourists coming from the Boston and Washington, D.C metro areas, and from the New York CBSA itself (New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA) also increased over the same period.
Meanwhile, further-away CBSAs like San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA, Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA, and Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL fed fewer tourists to NYC in 2023-2024 than they did pre-pandemic. It seems that residents of these more distant metro areas are opting for vacation destinations closer to home to avoid the high costs of air travel.
Diving even deeper into the characteristics of visitors taking medium-length trips to New York City reveals another demographic shift: Tourists staying between three and seven nights in the Big Apple are skewing younger.
Between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024, the share of visitors to New York City from areas with median ages under 30 grew from 2.1% to 4.5%. Meanwhile, the share of visitors from areas with median ages between 31 and 40 increased from 34.3% to 37.7%.
The impact of this trend is already being felt in the Big Apple, with The Broadway League reporting that the average age of audiences to its shows during the 2022- 2023 season was the youngest it had been in 20 seasons.
The shift towards younger tourists can also be seen when examining the psychographic makeup of visitors to popular attractions in New York City. Analyzing the captured markets of major NYC landmarks with data from Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive dataset reveals an increase in households belonging to the “Educated Urbanites” segment between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024.
These well-educated, young singles are increasingly visiting iconic NYC venues such as the Whitney Museum of American Art, The Metropolitan Museum of Art, The American Museum of Natural History, and the Statue of Liberty. This shift highlights the growing popularity of these attractions among young, educated singles, reflecting a broader trend of increased domestic tourism among this demographic.
New York City’s tourism sector is adapting to meet the changing needs of travelers, fueled increasingly by younger visitors who may be unable to take a costly international vacation. How have travel patterns to Los Angeles changed in response to increasing travel costs?
While New York City is the East Coast’s tourism hotspot, Los Angeles takes center stage on the West Coast. And as overseas travel has become increasingly out of reach for Americans with less discretionary income, the share of domestic tourists originating from areas with lower HHIs has risen.
Before the pandemic, 57.6% of visitors to LA came from affluent areas with median household incomes (HHIs) of over $90K/year. But by 2023-2024, this share decreased to 50.7%. Over the same period, the share of visitors from areas with median HHIs between $41K and $60K increased from 9.7% to 12.5%, while the share of visitors from areas with HHIs between $61K and $90K rose from 32.1% to 35.8%.
Diving into the psychographic makeup of visitors to popular Los Angeles attractions – Universal Studios Hollywood, Disneyland California, the Santa Monica Pier, and Griffith Observatory – also reflects the above-mentioned shift in HHI. The captured markets of these attractions had higher shares of middle-income households belonging to the “Family Union” psychographic segment in 2023-2024 than in 2018-2019.
Experian: Mosaic defines this segment as “middle income, middle-aged families living in homes supported by solid blue-collar occupations.” Pre-pandemic, 16.0% of visitors to Universal Studios Hollywood came from trade areas with high shares of “Family Union” households. This number jumped to 18.8% over the past year. A similar trend occurred at Disneyland, Santa Monica Pier, and Griffith Observatory.
And like in New York City, growing numbers of visitors to Los Angeles appear to be coming from nearby areas. Between 2018-2019 and 2023-2024, the share of in-state visitors to major Los Angeles attractions increased substantially – as people likely sought to cut costs by keeping things local.
Pre-pandemic, for example, 68.9% of visitors to Universal Studios Hollywood came from within California – a share that increased to 72.0% over the past year. Similarly, 59.7% of Griffith Observatory visitors in 2018-2019 came from within the state – and by 2023-2024, that number grew to 64.7%.
Even when times are tight, people love to travel – and New York and Los Angeles are two of their favorite destinations. With prices for airfare, hotels, and dining out increasing across the board, younger and more price-conscious households are adapting, choosing to visit nearby cities and enjoy attractions closer to home. And as the tourism industry continues its recovery, understanding emerging visitation trends can help stakeholders meet travelers where they are.
