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Shake Shack and Wingstop, two major names in the fast-casual and quick-service restaurant category, have had a standout year. Both chains enjoyed impressive visits while executing wide-ranging expansion strategies.
We dive into the location analytics for both brands to recap 2024’s success.
Shake Shack and Wingstop performed extremely well in 2024, with visits up 21.7% and 23.0%, respectively, compared to 2023 – thanks in large part to aggressive fleet expansions. Both chains enjoyed their strongest year-over-year (YoY) visit growth in the first half of the year, with H1 2024 visits to Shake Shack up 26.0% and to Wingstop up 28.7% compared to the same period in 2023. And while growth slowed down slightly towards the end of 2024, the two brands still ended the year with 16.8% (Shake Shack) and 11.6% (Wingstop) Q4 YoY visit growth – quite an impressive metric, especially given the wider dining headwinds.
Shake Shack and Wingstop are both in the midst of aggressive fleet expansions: Shake Shack opened 42 new locations and plans to triple that number in the coming years, while Wingstop added at least 138 new locations and also plans on adding hundreds of new stores in the coming years. Both companies have made suburban expansion a central focus of their growth strategies, and psychographic shifts in their captured markets over the past five years suggest this approach is working. Analyzing the chains’ visitor bases using the Esri: Tapestry dataset combined with Placer.ai captured market data reveals that Shake Shack increased the share of “Suburban Periphery” visitors in its trade area from 43.8% in 2019 to 45.4% in 2024. The share of the “Suburban Periphery” segment in Wingstop’s trade area rose from 23.8% to 24.9% during the same period. Wingstop also saw a decline in its share of “Urban Periphery” visitors while the share of the “Principal Urban Center” segment in both chains’ trade areas decreased during the analyzed period – further indicating growth in suburban markets.As more people migrate to the suburbs, offering convenient dining options outside of city centers is likely to remain a winning strategy for both chains.
While expansions helped drive the overall visit numbers up, the two chains also received several traffic spikes throughout the year driven by limited time offers (LTOs) and special menu launches. This strategy has recently proven successful for a number of QSR and fast-casual chains – Wendy’s, for example, finished 2024 with a 2.8% YoY increase in Q4 visits (0.7% YoY increase for 2024 as a whole) thanks in large part to its Krabby Patty Kollab LTO. Shake Shack received the most significant visit increase relative to its 2024 weekly visit average during its holiday special which included offers of free burgers every day from mid-December through Christmas Eve. Diners eagerly responded to the promotion, with weekly visits surging by 24.4% during the week of December 16th, 2024 relative to 2024’s weekly average. Similarly, Wingstop’s National Wing Day promo led to a 17.2% visit increase over the week of July 30th. Other promotional activities also influenced visits at these dining chains. For example, Shake Shack’s summer barbecue menu, which included a unique perk – a limited offer of “stain insurance” for customers who got excess BBQ sauce on their clothes – drove visits 13.8% higher than the weekly visit average. Similarly, Wingstop’s Summer of Flavor bundle drove visits to the chain during the week of July 22nd, 2024 by 6.6% relative to the 2024 weekly visit average. These promotions highlight the importance of creating buzz and offering exclusive deals to attract both new and returning customers.
Both Shake Shack and Wingstop enjoyed impressive visits in 2024 while expanding their fleets – but can the two chains continue this success into 2025? Visit Placer.ai/blog to keep up with the latest data-driven dining insights.
In December 2024, Saks Fifth Avenue finalized its acquisition of Neiman Marcus – forming a new parent company Saks Global. We dove into the foot traffic patterns and audience segmentation for the two department stores in order to better understand Saks Global’s positioning following the deal.
Nordstrom, Bloomingdale’s, Saks Fifth Avenue, and Neiman Marcus are four of the leading players in the luxury department store space. Analysis of the retailers’ relative visits share in 2024 reveals that Nordstrom claims the lion's share of combined visits between the four department stores (68.4% in 2024), distantly followed by Bloomingdale’s (14.9%). On their own, Saks (7.3%) and Neiman (9.5%) drive the smallest shares of visits, but together, the two department stores account for a greater share of visits than Bloomingdale’s, making Saks Global the second largest luxury department store player by share of visits.
In addition to a larger share of visits, by acquiring Neiman Marcus, Saks appears to gain an audience with a greater affinity for “accessible luxury”. Although a sizeable share of Saks’ visitors also visited a Nordstrom store (40.4%), an even larger share (just over half, or 50.1%) of Neiman’s visitors also visited the accessible luxury department stores. Some have posited that Saks Fifth Avenue could be positioned as an “accessible luxury brand”. However, the data suggests that Neiman may be better suited to compete for visits from “accessible luxury” shoppers.
Diving deeper into the retailers’ quarterly visit patterns further highlights how Saks stands to gain through its acquisition of Neiman. Of the four luxury department stores analyzed, Saks Fifth Avenue received the smallest share of its visits in Q4, while Neiman received the largest share of its visits over the holiday shopping season. So by acquiring Neiman, Saks Global benefits from a greater share of visits during a critical retail moment.
Along with visit share gains and a larger holiday boost, the acquisition of Neiman Marcus gives Saks Global access to a more affluent audience than Saks Fifth Avenue’s. Analysis of Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus’s trade areas combined with STI:PopStats data reveals that both retailers drive traffic from households with above-average incomes – but Neiman’s audience seems to be slightly more affluent: In Q4 2024, the median household income (HHI) of Neiman’s captured market was $112.8K/year, approximately $10K/year higher than Saks Fifth Avenue’s ($102.9K/year). A more affluent audience may better position Saks Global in the exclusive luxury space, particularly as it launches Authentic Luxury Group – a platform that aims to accelerate the growth of upscale brands like Barneys New York.
Further analysis of segmentation data reveals that Neiman Marcus also brings a more family-oriented audience to the Saks ecosystem. In Q4 2024, 26.2% of households in Neiman Marcus’ captured market were households with children – relatively near the 27.0% nationwide benchmark. Meanwhile, only 23.7% of households in Saks Fifth Avenue’s captured market were households with children. This suggests that the acquisition of Neiman allows Saks Global to drive more traffic from family-oriented households previously underserved by the Saks Fifth Avenue banner. Several Saks and Neiman locations are in close proximity to each other, so it’s conceivable that Saks Global will consolidate its real estate footprint in the future. If so, understanding audience segmentation could help the new parent company decide which retailer best serves the local market.
Saks Fifth Avenue’s acquisition of Neiman Marcus strengthens Saks Global’s position in luxury retail, boosting its visits share and access to a more affluent, family-oriented audience.How will the merger impact the luxury department store space moving forward? Visit Placer.ai to find out.
2024 represented a year of transformation in U.S. luxury retail. After years of evading the impact of inflation and changing consumer behavior, ultra luxury brands and retailers began experiencing some of the challenges plaguing the wider retail space over this past year. Consumers of all income groups pulled back on spending and shifted focus towards value, which is inherently at odds with the luxury retail experience. Despite the aspirational nature of social media, many consumers who had been testing the waters of the luxury market can’t sustain their demand. There’s also been a rebound of the “accessible” luxury market, with brands like Coach and other smaller chains capturing the attention of the consumer.
How did 2024 end in terms of luxury retail visitation? Generally, visitation to luxury retail brands was down throughout the year, with visits for 2024 as a whole down 4% year-over-year. This is in stark contrast to the growth in visits we observed in 2022 and 2023, a clear signal that there’s been a shift in consumer demand for luxury brands here in the U.S. The elasticity of luxury visits waned in 2024, which could be attributed to a few factors; changes in demand for specific brands this past year or lower general demand for the categories.
The most interesting shift this past year was in the segmentation of visitors to luxury retailers. Using PersonaLive visitor segments, we observed changes in the types of demographic consumer segments visiting luxury brands. The percentage of visits by Ultra Wealthy Families increased over the past three years, with the cohort making up 20% of luxury retailers’ captured market in 2024, the largest of any visitor segment.
At the same time, we noted decreases in the share of Near-Urban Diverse Families, Young Urban Singles, and City Hopefuls in luxury retailers’ trade areas. These groups fall more into the aspirational customer segment for luxury brands, meaning that they might not be frequent shoppers or may have saved up for a large purchase. Luxury retailers now have to rely more on their traditional consumer base and have narrowed their pool of potential visitors.
Beyond the retailers themselves, luxury shopping centers also saw visitation decelerate in 2024. Looking at three key luxury centers, Americana Manhasset in Manhasset, NY, Bal Harbour Shops in Miami, and Highland Park Village in Dallas, each center slowed down compared to prior years. These shopping centers house ultra luxury brands, such as Hermes, Dior, and Chanel, as well as new luxury entrants like LoveShackFancy and beauty chain Bluemercury as well as upscale dining options; despite this strong mix of tenants, it’s clear that changing consumer behavior has impacted these centers, even those that still saw growth early in the year.
There weren’t any observable changes in visitor behavior in terms of how long visitors stayed or what day of the week they visited. All three luxury shopping centers rely heavily on weekend visitors, and as consumers pull back on the frequency of discretionary purchases, there might be less incentive to visit overall. More than 50% of Americana Manhasset and Highland Park Village’s trade area is made up of Ultra Wealthy Families, and that high concentration that once benefited luxury retailers may now present hurdles in sustaining traffic growth.
Luxury brands, despite the changing tides, are the true retail trend setters, and have the ability to pivot as needed to meet changing consumer demands. In 2024, we saw the triumphant rise of brands such as Miu Miu, Louis Vuitton and Hermes as consumers concentrated their purchases around the hottest labels. The luxury market faces more uncertainty in 2025 as the consumer fluctuates to adapt to changes across the U.S. and the need to provide a high touch experience and inherent value is critical to garner the attention of shoppers.
RBI and Yum! Brands own and operate some of the country’s most beloved and well-known dining chains. We took a look at the visit data for 2024 to see how the two companies fared in a period of economic headwinds and uncertainty.
Restaurant Brands International (RBI) and Yum! Brands are leaders in the fast food and fast casual dining segment. Each company operates four restaurants with major footprints across the country – RBI owns Tim Hortons, Burger King, Firehouse Subs, and Popeyes, and Yum! manages Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, KFC, and The Habit Burger Grill.
Yum! Brands enjoyed visit and visits per location growth in all but one quarter, capping off Q4 2024 with an 0.8% increase in visits and a 1.6% increase in visits per location on a YoY basis. RBI’s visits and visits per location, meanwhile, hovered at or just below 2023’s levels in all but one quarter of the year, highlighting the challenges facing the dining segment in 2024.
Of the four RBI brands, Popeyes enjoyed the strongest visitation patterns throughout 2024.The chain has been a standout for the past few years – likely owing to its popular chicken sandwiches – and Popeyes performed well in 2024 as well, with YoY visit growth during most quarters.
Following Popeyes in visit growth was Tim Hortons – Canada’s leading coffee chain – which saw positive momentum in the first half of 2024, though visits dipped in the latter half of the year. And though Burger King’s visits were sluggish, the chain has been focusing on optimizing its store fleets with strong results.
While overall visits across RBI’s brands were slightly below 2023 levels, their ability to remain close to last year’s numbers – and even achieve growth in some quarters – signals resilience.
Yum! Brands delivered a strong performance in 2024, buoyed by Pizza Hut and Taco Bell’s consistent growth. Taco Bell in particular stood out, driving foot traffic through promotions like its highly popular Taco Tuesday special. The chain experienced quarterly YoY visit growth throughout the year, culminating in a 2.1% increase in Q4 2024 relative to 2023.
Pizza Hut also experienced impressive visitation growth in 2024, especially in Q2. In contrast, KFC faced challenges with declining visits, while The Habit Burger Grill’s traffic remained steady, closely tracking 2023 levels.
RBI and Yum! Brands experienced ups and downs throughout 2024, with some of their chains thriving while others showed modest visit declines.
With the new year well underway, how might RBI and Yum! work to drive increased visits to their restaurants?
Visit Placer.ai for the latest data-driven dining updates.
They say that one man’s trash is another one’s treasure – and for Burlington Stores, opportunity knocked when Bed Bath & Beyond selected Burlington Stores as the successful bidder for many of its leases, with the latter taking over 44 locations for $12 million. Per CNBC, many of these new venues are scattered across the country.
Using Placer data, we are able to compare visitation trends to these locations when they were branded as a Bed Bath & Beyond store versus when the new leases took over.
In Avondale, AZ, the new Burlington store is receiving over twice the traffic (241.8% more visits per square foot) during the holiday shopping season in December 2024 compared to a similar time frame when it was a Bed Bath & Beyond in December 2021.
In comparing shopping center frequented by visitors to the analyzed venue, the profile of the shopper has changed somewhat. While both sets of shoppers frequented the nearby Gateway Crossings, Westgate Entertainment District, and Arrowhead Towne Center, Burlington shoppers had a penchant for Desert Sky Mall and Tanger Outlets Phoenix, whereas the Bed Bath & Beyond shoppers preferred Palm Valley Pavillions West and Coldwater Plaza.
Whereas the top four segments have remained consistent for both banners, Burlington attracts a higher proportion of Melting Pot Families - over 2x the rate compared to when it was a Bed Bath & Beyond.
In a head to head comparison using comparable months, Burlington attracted over 3x the traffic in its first year of opening, compared to when it was a Bed Bath and Beyond two years prior.
The number of visits across numerous visit durations was considerably higher to Burlington, and the average dwell time increased to 41 minutes compared to 31 minutes when it was a Bed Bath & Beyond.
While this is just one example of a Burlington takeover, it goes to show that while the location may stay the same, the audience it attracts will vary and this Burlington is off to an excellent start.
In recent years, Tennessee has emerged as a surprising migration hotspot. The state, which offers a growing tech scene, business-friendly tax regulations, and a relatively low cost of living is rapidly gaining popularity and attracting inbound migration from across the nation.
Where are newcomers coming from – and where within Tennessee are they going? Using Placer.ai’s Migration Trends Report, we took a closer look at the migration data to gain a more thorough understanding of the shifts taking place in the Volunteer State.
The state of Tennessee has experienced significant positive migration over the past few years. Between July 2020 and July 2024, the cumulative net migrated percent of Tennessee’s population increased steadily, with 2.1% of the state’s July 2024 population having moved there from elsewhere in the country over the previous four years.
Diving deeper into Tennessee’s migration patterns reveal that between July 2020 and July 2024, the state had net positive domestic migration from 41 out of 50 states – meaning Tennessee gained more residents from these states than it lost to those states. Illinois and California together accounted for almost 40% of Tennessee’s net positive domestic migration during the period, and the state also drew a large contingent (33.6% of net positive domestic migration) from the East Coast.
While Memphis, Tennessee’s second-largest city, has made headlines in recent years for its declining population, other metro areas in the state are experiencing strong interest from newcomers.
Between July 2020 and July 2024, the Nashville CBSA (core-based statistical area) received the largest share of net positive domestic migration, with 24.6% of newcomers to Tennessee settling in the Music City. Nashville has been establishing itself as a tech hub, a factor which may have driven its strong net migration.
Knoxville came in second, welcoming 18.7% of the positive net migration to Tennessee between July 2020 and July 2024. Other CBSAs rounding out the top five were Chattanooga (9.0% share of positive net migration), Kingsport-Bristol (8.7%), and Johnson City (6.0%).
The influx of new residents into Tennessee is not only helping drive the state’s population up – it’s also reshaping its demographic composition. Zooming into the top five CBSAs mentioned above reveals that newcomers generally are coming from CBSAs of origin where the weighted median age is younger than the existing population.
The only metro area bucking this trend was Clarksville, where incoming residents were slightly older than the youthful median 31 years of its residents, though this may be a reflection of its strong university and military presence.
The movement of younger people into these up-and-coming CBSAs reflects the opportunities available for people to grow their careers and put down roots in a state that is quickly becoming a hub for growth and opportunity.
Tennessee seems to have reinvented itself as a destination for young people seeking out opportunities for growth. By continuing to foster a business-friendly environment and supporting its diverse communities, the state is well-positioned to thrive.
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven migration trends.
Malls have come a long way since their introduction to the world in the 1950s. These gleaming retail hubs promised shoppers a taste of the American dream, offering a third place for teens, families, and everyone in between to shop, socialize, and hang out.
And though malls have faced challenges in recent years, as e-commerce and pandemic-induced store closures led to shifts in consumer habits, the outlook is brightening. Malls have embraced innovation, incorporating enhanced entertainment, dining, and experiential offerings that attract a diverse range of visitors and redefine their purpose.
This white paper takes a look at the recent location intelligence metrics to gain an understanding of the changes taking place at malls across the country – including both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers. The report explores questions like: Why do malls experience foot traffic bumps during the summer months? How much of an impact do movie theaters have on mall visits, and what can mall operators learn from the Mall of America and American Dream malls’ focus on experiential entertainment?
Mall visitation is highly seasonal, with strikingly consistent monthly visitation patterns. Each year, visits decline somewhat in February, pick up in March, and begin to trend upward again in May – before peaking again in August. Then, after a slower September and October, foot traffic skyrockets during the holiday season, spiking dramatically in December.
And while these trends follow similar patterns every year, comparing monthly visits throughout 2019, 2023, and 2024 (YTD) to each year’s own January baseline shows that this seasonality is growing more pronounced - especially for indoor malls.
Following a lackluster 2023, visits to both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers peaked higher in March 2024 than in 2019. And this summer, indoor malls in particular saw a much larger visit boost than in previous years. In August 2024, for example, visits to indoor malls were 27.3% higher than in January 2024 – a substantially higher baseline jump than that seen either in August 2019 (17.0%) or in August 2023 (12.0%). And though open-air shopping centers experienced a smaller summer visit boost, they too saw a bigger bump this year than in 2019 or in 2023.
But malls aren’t just seeing larger visit spikes this year relative to their January baselines – they are also drawing bigger crowds than they did in 2023.
Between June and August 2024, indoor malls and open-air shopping centers both experienced year-over-year (YoY) visit growth. Indoor malls saw the largest YoY foot traffic boost (3.7%) – perhaps owing in part to 2024’s record-breaking heat, which led many patrons to seek refuge in air conditioned spaces. Still, open-air shopping centers, which feature plenty of air conditioned stores and restaurants, also enjoyed a YoY visit boost of 2.8% during the analyzed period.
Malls’ strong summer baseline and YoY foot traffic growth built upon the strong performance seen during most of 2024 so far, leading to the question: What is driving malls’ positive momentum? We delve into some of the factors propelling these changes below.
One offering that continues to play a significant role in driving foot traffic to malls is on-site movie theaters. Summer blockbuster releases, in particular, help attract crowds to theaters, in turn boosting overall visits to malls.
Much like malls, movie theaters have also proven their resilience over the past few years. While pundits fretted about the theater’s impending death, production houses were busy releasing blockbuster after blockbuster and shattering box-office records at an impressive clip. And while 2023 was certainly a banner year for blockbuster summer releases, 2024 has had its fair share of stunning box-office successes, leading to major visit boosts at theaters across the country.
Analyzing visits to malls with and without movie theaters highlights the impact of these summer Hollywood hits. Between June and August 2024, malls with theaters saw bigger visit boosts compared to a monthly year-to-date (YTD) average than malls without – an effect observed both for indoor malls and for open-air shopping centers.
For both mall types, the gap between centers with and without movie theaters was most pronounced in July 2024, likely owing to the release of Inside Out 2 in mid-June as well as the July releases of Deadpool & Wolverine and Twister. But in June and August 2024, too, centers with movie theaters sustained particularly impressive visit boosts – a solid sign that movie theaters and malls remain a winning combination.
Malls with movie theaters also drew higher shares of evening visits (7:00 PM - 10:00 PM) this summer than those without. Between June and August 2024, for example, evening outings accounted for 22.9% of visits to open-air shopping centers with movie theaters – compared to 18.2% of visits to centers without theaters. Indoor malls with theaters also saw a larger share of evening visits than those without – 18.1% compared to 15.0%.
This increase in evening traffic is likely driven by major summer movie releases and the flexibility of summer schedules, with many visitors – including families – taking advantage of late-night outings without the concern of early wakeup calls. These summer visitation trends benefit both theaters and malls, opening up opportunities for increased sales through concessions, promotions, and evening deals that attract a more relaxed and engaged crowd.
Analyzing the demographics of malls’ captured markets also reveals that centers with movie theaters are more likely to attract certain family-oriented segments than those without. (A mall’s captured market consists of the mall’s trade areas – the census block groups (CBGs) feeding visitors to the mall – weighted according to each CBG’s actual share of visits to the mall.)
Between June and August 2024, for example, 14.2% of the captured markets of open-air shopping centers with movie theaters were made up of “Wealthy Suburban Families” – compared to 9.7% for open-air shopping centers without theaters.
Indoor malls saw a similar pattern with regard to “Near-Urban Diverse Families”: Middle class families living in and around cities made up 9.0% of the captured markets of indoor malls with movie theaters, compared to 7.1% of the captured markets of those without.
This increase in foot traffic from middle-class and wealthy family segments can be a boon for malls and retail tenants – driving up food court profits and bolstering sales at stores with kid-friendly offerings.
Malls have long positioned themselves as destinations for summer entertainment as well as retail therapy, holding – in addition to back to school sales – events like Fourth of July celebrations and even indoor basketball and arena football games. And during the summer months, malls attract visitors from further away.
Between June and August 2024, indoor malls drew 18.2% of visitors from 30+ miles away – compared to just 16.7% during the first five months of the year. Similarly, open-air shopping centers drew 19.6% of visits from 30+ miles away during the summer, compared to 17.1% between January and May.
Extended daylight hours, summer trips away from home, and more free time are likely among the contributors to the summer draw for long-distance mall visitors. But in addition to their classic offerings – from movie theaters to stores and food courts – malls have also invested in other kinds of unique experiences to attract visitors. This next section takes a look at two mega-malls winning at the visitation game, to see what sets them apart.
The Minneapolis-based Mall of America opened in 1992, redefining the limits of what a mall could offer. The mall boasts hundreds of stores, games, rides, and more – and is constantly expanding its attractions, cementing its status as a top destination for retail and entertainment.
Between June and August 2024, Mall of America experienced a 13.8% YoY visit increase, far outperforming the 3.7% visit boost seen by the wider indoor mall space. And as a major tourist attraction – the mall hosted a series of Olympic-themed events throughout the summer – it also drew 41.6% of visits from 30+ miles away. This share of distant visitors was significantly higher than that seen at the mall during the first five months of 2024, and more than double the segment-wide summer average of 18.2%.
The Mall of America also seems to be attracting more upper-middle-class families during the summer than other indoor malls: Between June and August 2024, some 18.0% of Mall of America’s captured market consisted of “Upper Suburban Diverse Family Households” – a segment including upper-middle-class suburbanites – compared to just 11.1% for the wider indoor mall segment. The increased presence of these families at the Mall of America may be driven by the variety of events offered during the summer.
In 2019, the American Dream Mall in New Jersey opened and became the second-largest mall in the country. Since the mall opened its doors, it has also focused on blending retail and entertainment to draw in as wide a range of visitors as possible – and summer 2024 was no exception.
The mall hosted the Arena Football League Championship, ArenaBowl XXXIII, on Friday, July 19th. The event successfully attracted a higher share of visitors traveling from 30+ miles away compared to the average summer Friday – 35.4% compared to 25.7%.
Visits to the mall on the day of the championship were also 13.6% higher than the Friday visit average for the period between June and August 2024, showcasing the mall’s ability to draw in crowds by hosting major events.
Malls – both indoor and open-air – continue to evolve while playing a central role in the American retail landscape. Increasingly, malls are emerging as destinations for more than just shopping – especially during the summer – driving up foot traffic and attracting visitors from near and far. And while much is often said about the impact of holiday seasons on mall foot traffic, summer months offer another opportunity to boost mall visits. Malls that can curate experiences that resonate with their clientele can hope to see foot traffic growth – in the summer months and beyond.
New York City is one of the world’s leading commercial centers – and Manhattan, home to some of the nation's most prominent corporations, is at its epicenter. Manhattan’s substantial in-office workforce has helped make New York a post-pandemic office recovery leader, outpacing most other major U.S. hubs. And the plethora of healthcare, service, and other on-site workers that keep the island humming along also contribute to its thriving employment landscape.
Using the latest location analytics, this report examines the shifting dynamics of the many on-site workers employed in Manhattan and the up-and-coming Hudson Yards neighborhood. Where does today’s Manhattan workforce come from? How often do on-site employees visit Hudson Yards? And how has the share of young professionals across Manhattan’s different districts shifted since the pandemic?
Read on to find out.
The rise in work-from-home (WFH) trends during the pandemic and the persistence of hybrid work have changed the face of commuting in Manhattan.
In Q2 2019, nearly 60% of employee visits to Manhattan originated off the island. But in Q2 2021, that share fell to just 43.9% – likely due to many commuters avoiding public transportation and practicing social distancing during COVID.
Since Q2 2022, however, the share of employee visits to Manhattan from outside the borough has rebounded – steadily approaching, but not yet reaching, pre-pandemic levels. By Q2 2024, 54.7% of employee visits to Manhattan originated from elsewhere – likely a reflection of the Big Apple’s accelerated RTO that is drawing in-office workers back into the city.
Unsurprisingly, some nearby boroughs – including Queens and the Bronx – have seen their share of Manhattan worker visits bounce back to what they were in 2019, while further-away areas of New York and New Jersey continue to lag behind. But Q2 2024 also saw an increase in the share of Manhattan workers commuting from other states – both compared to 2023 and compared to 2019 – perhaps reflecting the rise of super commuting.
Commuting into Manhattan is on the rise – but how often are employees making the trip? Diving into the data for employees based in Hudson Yards – Manhattan’s newest retail, office, and residential hub, which was officially opened to the public in March 2019 – reveals that the local workforce favors fewer in-person work days than in the past.
In August 2019, before the pandemic, 60.2% of Hudson Yards-based employees visited the neighborhood at least fifteen times. But by August 2021, the neighborhood’s share of near-full-time on-site workers had begun to drop – and it has declined ever since. In August 2024, only 22.6% of local workers visited the neighborhood 15+ times throughout the month. Meanwhile, the share of Hudson Yards-based employees making an appearance between five and nine times during the month emerged as the most common visit frequency by August 2022 – and has continued to increase since. In August 2024, 25.0% of employees visited the neighborhood less than five times a month, 32.5% visited between five and nine times, and 19.2% visited between 10 and 14 times.
Like other workers throughout Manhattan, Hudson Yards employees seem to have fully embraced the new hybrid normal – coming into the office between one and four times a week.
But not all employment centers in the Hudson Yards neighborhood see the same patterns of on-site work. Some of the newest office buildings in the area appear to attract employees more frequently and from further away than other properties.
Of the Hudson Yards properties analyzed, Two Manhattan West, which was completed this year, attracted the largest share of frequent, long-distance commuters in August 2024 (15.3%) – defined as employees visiting 10+ times per month from at least 30 miles away. And The Spiral, which opened last year, drew the second-largest share of such on-site workers (12.3%).
Employees in these skyscrapers may prioritize in-person work – or have been encouraged by their employers to return to the office – more than their counterparts in other Hudson Yards buildings. Employees may also choose to come in more frequently to enjoy these properties’ newer and more advanced amenities. And service and shift workers at these properties may also be coming in more frequently to support the buildings’ elevated occupancy.
Diving deeper into the segmentation of on-site employees in the Hudson Yards district provides further insight into this unique on-site workforce.
Analysis of POIs corresponding to several commercial and office hubs in the borough reveals that between August 2019 and August 2024, Hudson Yards’ captured market had the fastest-growing share of employees belonging to STI: Landscape's “Apprentices” segment, which encompasses young, highly-paid professionals in urban settings.
Companies looking to attract young talent have already noticed that these young professionals are receptive to Hudson Yards’ vibrant atmosphere and collaborative spaces, and describe this as a key factor in their choice to lease local offices.
Manhattan is a bastion of commerce, and its strong on-site workforce has helped lead the nation’s post-pandemic office recovery. But the dynamics of the many Manhattan-based workers continues to shift. And as new commercial and residential hubs emerge on the island, workplace trends and the characteristics of employees are almost certain to evolve with them.
The restaurant space has experienced its fair share of challenges in recent years – from pandemic-related closures to rising labor and ingredient costs. Despite these hurdles, the category is holding its own, with total 2024 spending projected to reach $1.1 trillion by the end of the year.
And an analysis of year-over-year (YoY) visitation trends to restaurants nationwide shows that consumers are frequenting dining establishments in growing numbers – despite food-away-from-home prices that remain stubbornly high.
Overall, monthly visits to restaurants were up nearly every month this year compared to the equivalent periods of 2023. Only in January, when inclement weather kept many consumers at home, did restaurants see a significant YoY drop. Throughout the rest of the analyzed period, YoY visits either held steady or grew – showing that Americans are finding room in their budgets to treat themselves to tasty, hassle-free meals.
Still, costs remain elevated and dining preferences have shifted, with consumers prioritizing value and convenience – and restaurants across segments are looking for ways to meet these changing needs. This white paper dives into the data to explore the trends impacting quick-service restaurants (QSR), full-service restaurants (FSR), and fast-casual dining venues – and strategies all three categories are using to stay ahead of the pack.
Overall, the dining sector has performed well in 2024, but a closer look at specific segments within the industry shows that fast-casual restaurants are outperforming both QSR and FSR chains.
Between January and August 2024, visits to fast-casual establishments were up 3.3% YoY, while QSR visits grew by just 0.7%, and FSR visits fell by 0.3% YoY. As eating out becomes more expensive, consumers are gravitating toward dining options that offer better perceived value without compromising on quality. Fast-casual chains, which balance affordability with higher-quality ingredients and experiences, have increasingly become the go-to choice for value-conscious diners.
Fast-casual restaurants also tend to attract a higher-income demographic. Between January and August 2024, fast-casual restaurants drew visitors from Census Block Groups (CBGs) with a weighted median household income of $78.2K – higher than the nationwide median of $76.1K. (The CBGs feeding visits to these restaurants, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each CBG, are collectively referred to as their captured market).
Perhaps unsurprisingly, quick-service restaurants drew visitors from much less affluent areas. But interestingly, despite their pricier offerings, full-service restaurants also drew visitors from CBGs with a median HHI below the nationwide baseline. While fast-casual restaurants likely attract office-goers and other routine diners that can afford to eat out on a more regular basis, FSR chains may serve as special occasion destinations for those with more moderate means.
Though QSR, FSR, and fast-casual spots all seek to provide strong value propositions, dining chains across segments have been forced to raise prices over the past year to offset rising food and labor costs. This next section takes a look at several chains that have succeeded in raising prices without sacrificing visit growth – to explore some of the strategies that have enabled them to thrive.
The fast-casual restaurant space attracts diners that are on the wealthier side – but some establishments cater to even higher earners. One chain of note is NYC-based burger chain Shake Shack, which features a captured market median HHI of $94.3K. In comparison, the typical fast-casual diner comes from areas with a median HHI of $78.2K.
Shake Shack emphasizes high-quality ingredients and prices its offerings accordingly. The chain, which has been expanding its footprint, strategically places its locations in affluent, upscale, and high-traffic neighborhoods – driving foot traffic that consistently surpasses other fast-casual chains. And this elevated foot traffic has continued to impress, even as Shake Shack has raised its prices by 2.5% over the past year.
Steakhouse chain Texas Roadhouse has enjoyed a positive few years, weathering the pandemic with aplomb before moving into an expansion phase. And this year, the chain ranked in the top five for service, food quality, and overall experience by the 2024 Datassential Top 500 Restaurant Chain.
Like Shake Shack, Texas Roadhouse has raised its prices over the past year – three times – while maintaining impressive visit metrics. Between January and August 2024, foot traffic to the steakhouse grew by 9.7% YoY, outpacing visits to the overall FSR segment by wide margins.
This foot traffic growth is fueled not only by expansion but also by the chain's ability to draw traffic during quieter dayparts like weekday afternoons, while at the same time capitalizing on high-traffic times like weekends. Some 27.7% of weekday visits to Texas Roadhouse take place between 3:00 PM and 6:00 PM – compared to just 18.9% for the broader FSR segment – thanks to the chain’s happy hour offerings early dining specials. And 43.3% of visits to the popular steakhouse take place on Saturdays and Sundays, when many diners are increasingly choosing to splurge on restaurant meals, compared to 38.4% for the wider category.
Though rising costs have been on everybody’s minds, summer 2024 may be best remembered as the summer of value – with many quick-service restaurants seeking to counter higher prices by embracing Limited-Time Offers (LTOs). These LTOs offered diners the opportunity to save at the register and get more bang for their buck – while boosting visits at QSR chains across the country.
Limited time offers such as discounted meals and combo offers can encourage frequent visits, and Hardee’s $5.99 "Original Bag" combo, launched in August 2024, did just that. The combo allowed diners to mix and match popular items like the Double Cheeseburger and Hand-Breaded Chicken Tender Wraps, offering both variety and affordability. And visits to the chain during the month of August 2024 were 4.9% higher than Hardee’s year-to-date (YTD) monthly visit average.
August’s LTO also drove up Hardee’s already-impressive loyalty rates. Between May and July 2024, 40.1% to 43.4% of visits came from customers who visited Hardee’s at least three times during the month, likely encouraged by Hardee’s top-ranking loyalty program. But in August, Hardee’s share of loyal visits jumped to 51.5%, highlighting just how receptive many diners are to eating out – as long as they feel they are getting their money’s worth.
McDonald’s launched its own limited-time offer in late June 2024, aimed at providing value to budget-conscious consumers. And the LTO – McDonald’s foray into this summer’s QSR value wars – was such a resounding success that the fast-food leader decided to extend the deal into December.
McDonald’s LTO drove foot traffic to restaurants nationwide. But a closer look at the chain’s regional captured markets shows that the offer resonated particularly well with “Young Urban Singles” – a segment group defined by Spatial.ai's PersonaLive dataset as young singles beginning their careers in trade jobs. McDonald's locations in states where the captured market shares of this demographic surpassed statewide averages by wider margins saw bigger visit boosts in July 2024 – and the correlation was a strong one.
For example, the share of “Young Urban Singles” in McDonald’s Massachusetts captured market was 56.0% higher than the Massachusetts statewide baseline – and the chain saw a 10.6% visit boost in July 2024, compared to the chain's statewide H1 2024 monthly average. But in Florida, where McDonald’s captured markets were over-indexed for “Young Urban Singles” by just 13% compared to the statewide average, foot traffic jumped in July 2024 by a relatively modest 7.3%.
These young, price-conscious consumers, who are receptive to spending their discretionary income on dining out, are not the sole driver of McDonald’s LTO foot traffic success. Still, the promotion’s outsize performance in areas where McDonald’s attracts higher-than-average shares of Young Urban Singles shows that the offering was well-tailored to meet the particular needs and preferences of this key demographic.
While QSR, fast-casual, and FSR chains have largely boosted foot traffic through deals and specials, reputation is another powerful way to attract diners. Restaurants that earn a coveted Michelin Star often see a surge in visits, as was the case for Causa – a Peruvian dining destination in Washington, D.C. The restaurant received its first Michelin Star in November 2023, a major milestone for Chef Carlos Delgado.
The Michelin Star elevated the restaurant's profile, drawing in affluent diners who prioritize exclusivity and are less sensitive to price increases. Since the award, Causa saw its share of the "Power Elite" segment group in its captured market increase from 24.7% to 26.6%. Diners were also more willing to travel for the opportunity to partake in the Causa experience: In the six months following the award, some 40.3% of visitors to the restaurant came from more than ten miles away, compared to just 30.3% in the six months prior.
These data points highlight the power of a Michelin Star to increase a restaurant’s draw and attract more affluent audiences – allowing it to raise prices without losing its core clientele. Wealthier diners often seek unique culinary experiences, where price is less of a concern, making these establishments more resilient to inflation than more venues that serve more price-sensitive customers.
Dining preferences continue to evolve as restaurants adapt to a rapidly changing culinary landscape. From the rise in fast-casual dining to the benefits of limited-time offers, the analyzed restaurant categories are determining how to best reach their target audiences. By staying up-to-date with what people are eating, these restaurant categories can hope to continue bringing customers through the door.
