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I grew up playing soccer and have great World Cup memories growing up near the Rose Bowl.
In 1994, the US hosted the men’s World Cup, marking the first time the country had ever hosted a World Cup – men's or women's. We tied our first game against Switzerland, and the second game was against Columbia at the Rose Bowl. I went to that game! Valderama was at his peak, and it seemed one in five fans wore a big yellow wig. The US went on to win that game – our first win ever on home soil. The party that ensued was madness. Seemingly, the whole stadium paraded to Old Town Pasadena after the game, basking in the upset. Old Town had not expected tens of thousands of soccer fans to descend upon them.
But something even greater happened in 1999. The Rose Bowl hosted another epic game, this time between the US and China in the Women’s World Cup finals. The game went into overtime, and then penalties, where we finally won. The image of Brandi Chastain after her game-winning penalty is one of my favorite images of all time.
This year’s World Cup will be played across stadiums nationwide – and although none of these venues include the Rose Bowl, new memories will still be made for fans new and old.
Eight tournament matches, including the final, will be held at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, which already hosted a World Cup-like audience during the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup. Analyzing the demographics and consumer preferences of fans at that event can provide a strong preview of who will fill the stands in 2026 – and how marketers can capitalize on the opportunity.
So if you are a brand that wants to tap into this experience, here are a few things you can do to help get as close to the action as possible.
Comparing the FIFA Club World Cup Final (July 13, 2025) to other high-profile sporting events held at MetLife Stadium reveals that the soccer match attracted a higher share of Millennials and Gen X attendees than high-profile NFL and NHL events at the same venue. Meanwhile, the NFL and NHL events skewed more heavily toward both older generations and Gen Z.
Takeaway: Global soccer events such as the FIFA World Cup may be especially effective for brands targeting Millennial and Gen X consumers at major U.S. venues.
Diving deeper into the differences between FIFA Club World Cup attendees compared to NHL and NFL fans at MetLife Stadium shows that FIFA Club World Cup Final Attendees tended to travel to the match from further away. The data also shows that MetLife visitors during the FIFA Club World Cup were more likely to take advantage of their trip to MetLife to visit the nearby American Dream Mall compared to NHL or NFL fans.
Takeaway: Global soccer events drive stronger destination-style behavior, creating meaningful spillover for nearby retail and entertainment destinations – and expanded opportunity for brands beyond game day itself.
Compared to NFL and NHL audiences, FIFA Club World Cup Final attendees showed distinct food and beverage preferences. In terms of food choices, soccer fans tended to have a strong preference for Asian cuisine and a slightly higher-than-average affinity for Italian food. On the beverage front, FIFA Club World Cup guests showed lower relative interest in craft beer and higher interest in at-home craft coffee compared to the NFL or NHL game-day crowds.
Takeaway: Soccer fans’ psychographic profiles point to opportunities for non-traditional, globally inspired food and beverage concepts around major soccer events.
One of my favorite learnings from being around brands my entire professional life is that fans are diehard. Fans go to extraordinary lengths to get access to experiences and content that they love. If you are a brand that is somehow lucky enough to be part of the experience, you are etched positively in memory. But if you try to force yourself into the experience and aren’t authentic, consumers will punish you for it.
The World Cup is a global event, but it’s not for everyone. By leveraging AI-powered location analytics, you can see who attends these types of events, how far they travel, where they stay, where they eat – and maybe most importantly, what they do when they are not at the game.
Our recent analysis highlighted Dutch Bros’ push to capture a greater share of morning-daypart visits alongside its aggressive expansion strategy. Now, we’ll dive deeper into the connection between these two aspects of Dutch Bros’ strategy. Using an AI-powered analysis of visitor behavior we’ll explore how Dutch Bros’ play for the morning commuter could help foster brand recognition and loyalty in new markets, driving success as the chain grows its footprint.
Dutch Bros saw consistently positive visit growth in 2025, largely driven by rapid unit expansion, while the chain’s elevated same-store visits indicate strong demand as it entered new markets. The brand’s particularly robust end-of-year momentum may also be linked to its holiday season promotions.
As Dutch Bros grows its footprint, its visitor’s journeys appear consistent with a brand yet to cement itself as part of morning coffee and breakfast routines in new geographies.
In 2025, fewer Dutch Bros visitors came from home immediately before visiting the chain or continued to work immediately after visiting, compared to 2024. This shift may reflect consumers who are encountering the chain more organically as it opens in their area – with curiosity and novelty fueling irregular visits rather than visitation being part of an established routine or commute.
Perhaps morning commuters, the kind Dutch Bros hopes to attract with its aforementioned breakfast strategy, could be the key to turning discovery into loyalty among consumers in new markets.
Viewed together, two facets of Dutch Bros’ growth plan – expansion and morning commuter visits – appear highly complementary; expanded breakfast offerings could potentially facilitate the transition from unfamiliar brand to habitual pit stop as the chain grows its footprint.
What will Dutch Bros’ visit patterns reveal about its growth in the months ahead? Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Fleming’s Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar – Bloomin’s most upscale concept – posted year-over-year visit growth in Q4 2025, while elevated-casual chain Bonefish Grill also sustained traffic gains. Both brands draw disproportionately from higher-income trade areas: Bonefish and Fleming’s captured market median household incomes are $88.0K and $102.6K, respectively, compared with a nationwide median of $79.6K, according to STI: Popstats 2024.
By contrast, Outback Steakhouse saw largely flat traffic in Q4 2025, while Carrabba’s Italian Grill recorded a 3.7% year-over-year decline in visits. These brands attract diners from trade areas with median household incomes closer to the national average – $79.7K for Outback and $82.9K for Carrabba’s.
The traffic trends combined with the trade-area income patterns suggest Bloomin’s brand performance mirrors broader industry dynamics. As consumers remain selective with discretionary spending – particularly on dining out – traffic is increasingly concentrated among higher-end destinations offering a clear “value-plus-experience” proposition or casual chains with a well-defined value proposition. Meanwhile, undifferentiated casual dining brands continue to lag.
Against this backdrop, Outback Steakhouse’s flat to slightly negative same-store traffic through much of H2 2025 reflects its positioning within the more challenged segment of casual dining rather than a lack of strategic focus. Management has outlined plans to sharpen the Outback's value proposition through improvements in food quality, guest experience, and operational consistency – steps designed to better position Outback with diners seeking greater value and differentiation in 2026.
Taken month by month, the data suggest that Bloomin’ Brands’ higher-end concepts benefited from both stronger underlying demand and greater flexibility in capturing discretionary spend. Meanwhile core casual brands remained more exposed to year-end pressure.
Bonefish Grill’s same-store traffic showed episodic strength – most notably in October – indicating periods of solid unit-level demand even as momentum softened into the holidays. Fleming’s Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar, by contrast, delivered its strongest gains on an overall traffic basis, pointing to system-level growth and traffic concentration that helped offset more uneven same-store performance.
Meanwhile, Outback Steakhouse and Carrabba’s Italian Grill saw declines deepen into December across both metrics. This dip underscores the heightened vulnerability of traditional casual dining concepts during the holiday season, when increased competition for discretionary spending tends to pressure lower-differentiated dining occasions.
Looking ahead to 2026, Bloomin’ Brands appears positioned to benefit as stabilizing consumer conditions intersect with ongoing brand-level investments. With higher-end concepts demonstrating resilience and Outback’s repositioning efforts underway, the portfolio is better aligned to capture both experience-driven and value-oriented dining demand.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
What should restaurant operators expect in 2026? Like much of the consumer sector, 2025 was an up-and-down year for the industry. The year started out on a strong note, but visitation trends quickly turned volatile amid uncertainty over tariff news and broader macroeconomic uncertainty. With the threat of higher prices, it’s no surprise that consumers became hyper price sensitive as the year progressed, resulting in a clear bifurcation in trends among diners.
On one hand, affluent consumers – who generally take their spending cues from the health of the stock and housing market – continued to visit more upscale and fine dining chains. Meanwhile, lower and middle income consumers pulled back from QSR and fast casual restaurant chains that they perceived as expensive. This set up a challenging development for many restaurant operators, as consumers traded out of traditionally lower-priced restaurant channels for substitutes across other food retailers. This trend continued for much of the year until McDonald’s and others introduced more value-oriented promotions with pop-culture tie-ins (which we discussed here).
Heading into 2026, where does the restaurant category stand? We’ve highlighted three key trends that restaurant operators, executives, and investors should consider.
As mentioned above, traditionally lower-priced restaurant channels generally had a challenging 2025 headlined by increased competition with other food retailers like value grocers like Trader Joe’s and Aldi, food-forward convenience stores like Wawa, Sheetz, Buc-ee’s, and Casey’s, and warehouse clubs like Costco and Sam’s Club (which have increasingly attracted younger visitors in recent years). In fact, our data suggests a substantial increase in the percentage of QSR visitors also visiting Aldi – and while some of the increase may be attributed to Aldi's expansion, the rise in cross-visitation trends also underscores this competitive encroachment.
While certain players like Taco Bell were able to hold their ground against other food retail competitors, others – like McDonald’s – needed the boost from special promotions like the launch of its Extra Value Meal in September 2025 to win back value-focused consumers.
We’ve already covered some of the key ways that QSR chains plan to wield promotional strategies in 2026, including a focus on freebies, pop-culture tie-ins, sequencing, and storytelling. We’re already seeing some evidence of this with Taco Bell’s Luxe Value Menu featuring 10 menu items priced at $3 or less. However, with several key events taking place in 2026, including the Winter Olympics and World Cup, there will be more opportunities for QSR chains to amplify their value messaging. We may not quite see the return of the Value Wars of 2024 given ongoing input cost inflation pressures, but given the success that McDonald’s and Taco Bell have seen, it’s apparent that value messaging will be critical in 2026.
As macroeconomic and inflationary uncertainty increased throughout 2025, restaurants’ primary competition shifted from other chains to alternative food retail channels, including value grocers, convenience stores, warehouse clubs, and dollar stores. Chipotle CEO Scott Boatwright noted this trend on the company’s Q3 2025 earnings conference call as well. While Chipotle noted pressure among customers under $100K in household income from July-September, our data also indicated a major shift in the behavior of fast casual restaurant consumers in trade areas between $100-$125K for much of the second half of 2025.
Where did these consumers go? Like for QSR chains, we believe visits were impacted by a combination of factors – including a shift to differentiated food retailers like Trader Joe’s. Below, we see the percentage of fast casual visitors that also visited Trader Joe’s has increased significantly over the past five years. Like for Aldi, some of this can be attributed to Trader Joe’s expansion plans, but we believe that some visitors have chosen to substitute some fast casual lunch visits for value grocers.
After years of outperforming the industry, these high-growth brands face a "convenience plateau." The price gap between fast-casual and casual dining narrowed to the point where consumers began questioning the value of a $16 bowl eaten at a counter versus a $20 sit-down meal. To win back these consumers in 2026, fast-casual brands must reinvest in the physical experience. This means moving away from "ghost kitchen" vibes and back toward inviting dining rooms, while simultaneously fixing the "mobile order friction" that has made many store lobbies feel chaotic and impersonal.
Both QSR and fast casual chains looking to win back middle-income visitors who have traded down to at-home dining will need to move beyond the $5 value meal. The winners in 2025 realized that value is a calculation of price combined with innovation. McDonald’s "Grinch Meal" and various "limited-time" spicy chicken iterations proved that consumers are willing to spend if the product feels like a unique event. In 2026, restaurants must continue this trend, using "innovation-led value" to justify the discretionary spend of a household that is increasingly selective.
One of the standout stories of 2025 was the continued strength of casual dining giants like Chili’s. Building on the momentum gained in 2024 with the "Big Smasher" burger and clear value messaging (like the "3 for Me" deal), Chili’s didn't just win new customers – it kept them. Data shows that same-store visits to Chili's were up every month of 2025 despite the tough comparison to an already strong 2024.
Observing Chili's successful resurrection through its aggressive "3 for Me" platform and direct antagonism toward fast-food pricing, rivals like Applebee's and Red Robin are frantically adopting the same playbook to win back budget-conscious diners. These chains have largely abandoned complex culinary innovations in favor of simplifying operations and launching hard-hitting tiered meal deals – often priced between $10 and $12 – designed to explicitly undercut the rising cost of a "Big Mac" combo.
By pivoting their marketing to highlight that a sit-down meal with unlimited sides now costs less than a drive-thru visit, competitors are validating Chili's core thesis: the new battleground for casual dining isn't service or ambiance, but proving they are the superior economic alternative to the quick-service sector.
Ultimately, 2026 will be defined by precision rather than broad-stroke expansion. The 'rising tide' era of post-pandemic growth is over; simply opening doors in high-growth Sunbelt markets or offering a generic discount is no longer enough to guarantee traffic. To succeed in this increasingly saturated and price-sensitive environment, operators must execute a delicate balancing act: aggressively defending their value proposition to fight off grocery competitors, while simultaneously reinvesting in the in-store experience to justify the visit. Whether it is through the tactical 'sequencing' of limited-time offers, the aggressive tiered pricing of casual dining, or the revitalization of physical dining rooms, the winners of 2026 will be the brands that give consumers a distinct, irrefutable reason to choose dining out over staying in.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The U.S. grocery sector is increasingly polarized. Traffic and growth are concentrating at the far ends of the quality-savings spectrum, where retailers with clear, disciplined value propositions are pulling ahead. Meanwhile, grocers that sit in the middle – or only weakly signal what they stand for – are struggling to keep pace.
This analysis builds on the insights from dunnhumby's U.S. Retailer Preference Index (RPI) for Grocery.
As the chart below illustrates, visit growth is diverging significantly across grocery formats, with success concentrated at both ends of the quality-price spectrum.
Savings-first retailers such as Aldi have been thriving consistently since 2023, with year-over-year (YoY) traffic growth generally outpacing that of the wider grocery category. Quality-first non-conventional chains like Sprouts Farmers Market have also done well, particularly in 2025 – though their performance lagged behind savings-first chains for much of 2023 and 2024.
But arguably the most consistently impressive performers – with slightly lower YoY growth most months but less volatility over time – have been the so-called “Unicorns”, including chains such as Trader Joe’s and H-E-B that defy grocery’s traditional quality-price tradeoff through extreme focus. By limiting assortments or going all-in on specific geographic areas, these retailers funnel profits back into innovation within their core missions, inspiring deep customer loyalty and creating a virtuous cycle that steadily improves the quality-savings equation.
Middle-of-the-road chains, by contrast, have consistently trailed the pack, struggling to gain traction in a market that increasingly rewards clear, decisive positioning.
But not every chain can be a Unicorn – hence the moniker. And between savings-first and quality-first chains, several indicators (beyond their more consistent YoY growth) suggest that savings-first grocers may be better positioned for long-term growth.
One such signal comes from cross-shopping behavior. In 2025, the share of visitors to Grocery Outlet Bargain Market who visited another grocery store either immediately before or after their trip declined YoY – indicating that more shoppers are treating the savings-first retailer as a primary grocery destination rather than a secondary or fill-in stop. A similar pattern emerged at Unicorn Trader Joe’s.
Quality-first chain Natural Grocers, by contrast, saw a higher and growing share of visitors arriving from another grocery store or heading to one directly afterward, suggesting it is more often part of a multi-stop shopping pattern rather than the first or only trip. As value-oriented chains become more complete grocery solutions, they are capturing a growing share of intentional, first-stop visits, reinforcing their role as everyday essentials rather than complementary alternatives.
Another indication of savings-first retailers’ special growth potential is the rising affluence of their customer base.
While savings-first grocery stores have not yet reached Unicorn status, their assortments have moved well beyond bare-bones essentials, and they are no longer fully trading quality for value. Expanded private-label offerings, improved fresh selections, and tighter SKU curation increasingly emphasize quality alongside cost. And as perceived quality gaps have narrowed, median household income in these retailers’ trade areas has increased – rising from $72.5K in 2022 to $73.1K in 2025. This shift suggests savings-first grocery chains are gaining access to higher-income shoppers who once defaulted to premium formats, expanding both their addressable market and runway for growth.
By contrast, quality-first grocery chains, which serve the most affluent consumers, have seen median household income in their trade areas fluctuate in recent years – rising between 2022 and 2023 before declining thereafter. While this softening could indicate some broadening of their customer base, these formats are built around narrowly defined, premium missions, which may limit the extent to which such broadening can translate into scalable growth. As a result, their path to expansion may be more constrained than savings-first retailers’ upward reach.
As price sensitivity rises and perceived quality differences narrow, the retailers winning today are those with the clearest answers to a simple question: Why shop here instead of anywhere else? And in today’s market, being essential beats being special – unless you can convincingly be both.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Economic pressures created a challenging backdrop for the QSR space in 2025. Many consumers adjusted their dining-out habits, leading to uneven foot traffic across the category. Within this environment, AI-powered location intelligence suggests that Yum! Brands – the parent company of Taco Bell, KFC, Pizza Hut, and Habit Burger & Grill – has been comparatively well positioned. We dove into the data for a closer look at how Yum! and its portfolio performed in 2025 and the most recent Q4.
Although limited-service restaurants faced headwinds in 2025, Yum! Brands appeared to stay ahead of the pack. As a whole, the company's portfolio – QSRs plus the smaller Habit Burger & Grill – posted year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic growth in every quarter, outperforming the broader QSR category, which recorded YoY visit declines during much of the year.
Beyond value and compelling menu innovation, convenience and ease of experience remain central to why consumers choose limited-service chains. To reinforce its advantage, Yum! has spent the past year expanding its suite of AI-driven technology tools across its brands – platforms designed to optimize restaurant operations, delivery, and digital ordering. The company has even pointed to its proprietary software as an enabler of daily menu drops and viral promotions, reinforcing the other two critical motivations for limited-service diners: craveability and value. As these tools roll out to more locations, the data suggests Yum!’s competitive edge could continue.
An analysis of foot traffic across Yum! Brands’ portfolio highlights which concepts are driving the company’s visit gains. Pizza Hut and Habit Burger & Grill recorded YoY monthly overall visit and same-store visit growth in most of Q4 2025 – indicating that underlying demand remains intact despite heightened volatility in the current economic environment.
Of the four brands, however, Taco Bell remains Yum!’s primary driver of growth. The brand delivered the largest and most consistent YoY monthly overall visit and same-store visit growth throughout Q4 2025 – with National Taco Day promotions and the return of Cheesy Dipping Burritos likely contributing to elevated traffic.
Meanwhile, KFC experienced month-to-month visit gaps throughout Q4 2025 while mustering nearly flat same-store visits. This could suggest that while the brand has consolidated its footprint, existing locations see sufficient demand to support a broader turnaround strategy.
Even as economic pressures continue to reshape how consumers engage with limited-service dining, Yum! Brands appears well positioned to navigate ongoing uncertainty. A combination of operational investment and consumer-facing innovation suggests the company’s portfolio has built a durable foundation to support evolving market conditions.
Want more restaurant industry insights? Visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The Mountain region offers employment opportunities, affordable housing, outdoors recreation, and a relatively low cost of living – which could explain why these states are emerging as major domestic migration hubs. Idaho, Nevada and Wyoming in particular have consistently attracted inbound domestic migration in recent years, as Americans continue leaving higher density regions in search of greener – and calmer – pastures.
This report uses various datasets from the Placer.ai Migration Trends Report to analyze domestic migration to Idaho, Nevada, and Wyoming. Where are people coming from? And how is recent migration impacting local population centers in these states? Keep reading to find out.
Idaho emerged as a domestic migration hotspot over the pandemic, as many Americans freed from the obligation of in-person work relocated to the Gem State. Between June 2020 and June 2024, Idaho saw positive net migration of 4.7%, more than any other state in the U.S. (This metric measures the number of people moving to a state minus the number of people leaving – expressed as a percentage of the state’s total population.) And between 2023 and 2024, Idaho remained the nation’s top domestic migration performer (see map above).
Diving into the data reveals that though people moved to Idaho from across the U.S., most of Idaho’s influx over the past four years came from neighboring West Coast and Mountain States – especially California. Former residents of the Golden State accounted for a whopping 58.1% of inbound migrants to Idaho over the analyzed period.
California’s position as the top feeder of relocators to Idaho during the analyzed period may come as no surprise, given the state’s recent population outflow and the many former California residents who have settled in the Mountain region. But Washington, Oregon, and Nevada – where inbound and outbound migration remained relatively even in recent years – have also been seeing shifts to Idaho.
Idaho has a lower tax burden, robust employment opportunities, and greater overall affordability than its top four feeder states. So some of the recent relocators likely moved to the Gem State to enjoy better economic opportunities while staying relatively close to their states of origin. And these recent Idahoans may be reshaping Idaho’s demographic and economic landscape in the process.
Most inbound migration to Idaho is concentrated in the state’s metro areas, with Boise – the capital of Idaho and the major city closest to California – consistently absorbing the highest share of net inbound migration.
But recently, other CBSAs have emerged as key destinations for new Idahoans. The location of two emerging domestic relocation hubs in particular suggests that many new Idaho residents may be looking to stay close to their areas of origin: Coeur d’Alene, located near the border with Washington, attracts its largest contingent of new residents from the Spokane, WA metro area, while Twin Falls’ top feeder area is the Elko CBSA in northern Nevada.
Twin Falls in southern Idaho has a strong job market – and has received a substantial share of inbound domestic migration over the past three years. Coeur d’Alene is also flush with economic opportunities, and after declining steadily for several years, the share of relocators heading to the metro area increased to 20.7% between June 2023 and 2024.
The chart above also reveals that the share of inbound migration heading to Boise declined slightly between June 2023 and June 2024 – following a period of consistent growth between June 2020 and June 2023 – even as the share of migration to Coeur d’Alene ballooned. This may mean that, although the state’s largest metro area may have reached its saturation point, other areas in the state are still primed to receive inbound migration.
While Nevada is losing some of its population to nearby Idaho, the Silver State is also gaining new residents of its own: Between September 2020 and September 2024, the Silver State experienced positive net migration of 3.3%. And the data indicates that many new Nevadans are choosing to settle in the state's rapidly growing suburban centers.
Zooming into the Las Vegas-Henderson CBSA reveals that much of the growth is concentrated outside the main city of Las Vegas. Instead, the more suburban cities of Enterprise, Henderson, and North Las Vegas received the largest migration bump – with Henderson and North Las Vegas’ population now surpassing that of Reno. And while year-over-year migration trends suggest that the growth is beginning to stabilize, Enterprise and Henderson are still growing significantly faster than the CBSA as a whole – indicating that the suburbs continue to draw Nevada newcomers.
Analyzing the inbound domestic migration to Enterprise – one of the fastest growing areas in the country – may shed light on the aspects of suburban Las Vegas that are driving population growth.
Many new Enterprise residents moved to the city from elsewhere in Nevada, while most out-of-state newcomers came from California or Hawaii – mirroring the migration patterns for Nevada as a whole. And according to the Niche Neighborhood Grades dataset, Enterprise is a good fit for retirees and young professionals alike, with the city ranking higher than its feeder areas with regard to a range of factors – from jobs and commute to weather.
Like with migration to the rest of the Mountain region, domestic migration to Nevada – particularly to suburban areas like Enterprise and Henderson – is likely driven by newcomers looking for more economic opportunities along with higher quality of life.
Wyoming – currently the least populous state in the country – is another Mountain region state where inbound migration is driving up the population numbers. But in the Cowboy State, urban areas – as opposed to suburban ones – seem to be the main magnets for population growth.
The Cheyenne, Wyoming CBSA – home to Wyoming’s capital – is the largest metro area in the state. And analyzing the CBSA’s population trends over the past six years reveals a recent shift in Wyoming’s inbound migration patterns.
Cheyenne’s population is mostly suburban, and the CBSA’s suburban areas remain popular with newcomers – suburban Cheyenne has also seen steady population growth since January 2018. But when the CBSA became a popular relocation destination over the pandemic, many newcomers to the Cheyenne region chose to move to metro area’s more rural areas: By April 2022, Cheyenne’s rural population had jumped by 10.8% compared to a January 2018 baseline, compared to a 5.9% and 3.9% increase in the CBSA’s suburban and urban populations, respectively.
As the country opened back up, however, the number of rural Cheyenne residents dropped back down – and by September 2024, Cheyenne’s rural population was only 0.1% bigger than it had been in January 2018. The population growth in suburban Cheyenne also slowed down, with the September 2024 suburban population numbers more or less on par with the April 2022 figures.
Now, Cheyenne’s urban areas have overtaken both rural and suburban areas in terms of population growth: In September 2024, Cheyenne’s urban population was 9.4% bigger than in January 2018, compared to 5.2% and 0.1% growth for the suburban and urban areas, respectively.
Despite the growth in Cheyenne’s urban population, the suburbs still remain the most populous – as of September 2024, 71.2% of the CBSA’s population resided in suburban areas. But the continued growth of Cheyenne’s urban population may reflect a rising demand among Wyomingites for amenities and economic opportunities unavailable elsewhere in the state, mirroring the trend in Idaho’s urban CBSAs such as Boise and Coeur d'Alene.
Cheyenne’s urban growth could be partially due to shifts in migration patterns. At the height of the pandemic, most newcomers to Cheyenne were coming from out of state, perhaps drawn by the quiet and spaciousness of rural Wyoming. But since 2022, the share of migration to Cheyenne from within Wyoming has grown – coinciding with the population increase in its urban areas and suggesting that Cheyenne's amenities are attracting more residents statewide.
This growing intra-state migration to Cheyenne’s urban areas underscores the city’s evolving role as a hub within Wyoming, appealing not just to newcomers from outside the state but increasingly to Wyoming residents seeking the benefits of a more urban lifestyle relative to the rest of the state.
The Mountain States are solidifying their status as key migration hubs in the U.S., driven by economic opportunities, affordable living, and lifestyle appeal. Between September 2023 and September 2024, Idaho, Nevada, and Wyoming all experienced significant population growth due to inbound domestic migration. In Idaho, newcomers from neighboring states are boosting the population of the Gem State’s major metro areas. Meanwhile the Cheyenne, Wyoming, CBSA is emerging as a focal point for intra-state migration, with urban Cheyenne seeing particularly pronounced growth. And in Nevada, suburban hubs like Henderson and Enterprise are welcoming new arrivals seeking a balance of suburban comfort and economic potential. With the cost of living continuing to increase – and the Mountain region offering something for everyone through its various states – Idaho, Nevada, and Wyoming are likely to remain top migration destinations in 2025 and beyond.
2024 has been another challenging year for retailers. Still-high prices and an uncertain economic climate led many shoppers to trade down and cut back on unnecessary indulgences. Value took center stage, as cautious consumers sought to stretch their dollars as far as possible.
But price wasn’t the only factor driving consumer behavior in 2024. This past year saw the rise of a variety of retail and dining trends, some seemingly at odds with one another. Shoppers curbed discretionary spending, but made room in their budgets for “essential non-essentials” like gym memberships and other wellness offerings. Consumers placed a high premium on speed and convenience, while at the same time demonstrating a willingness to go out of their way for quality or value finds. And even amidst concern about the economy, shoppers were ready to pony up for specialty items, legacy brands, and fun experiences – as long as they didn’t break the bank.
How did these currents – likely to continue shaping the retail landscape into 2025 – impact leading brands and categories? We dove into the data to find out.
Bifurcation has emerged as a foundational principle in retail over the past few years: Consumers are increasingly gravitating toward either luxury or value offerings and away from the ‘middle.’ Add extended economic uncertainty along with rapid expansions and product diversification from top value-oriented retailers, and you have an explosion of visits in the value lane.
But we are seeing a ceiling to that growth – especially in the discount & dollar store space. Throughout 2023 and the first part of 2024, visits to discount & dollar stores increased steadily. But no category can sustain uninterrupted visit growth forever. Since April 2024, year–over-year (YoY) foot traffic to the segment has begun to slow, with September 2024 showing just a modest 0.8% YoY visit increase.
Discount & dollar stores, which attract lower-income shoppers compared to both grocery stores and superstores, have also begun lagging behind these segments in visit-per-location growth. In Q3, the average number of visits to each discount and dollar store location remained essentially flat compared to 2023 (+0.2%), while visits per location to superstores and grocery stores grew by 2.8% and 1.0%, respectively. As 2024 draws to a close, it is the latter segments, which appeal to shoppers with incomes closer to the nationwide median of $76.1K, which are seeing better YoY performance.
The deceleration doesn’t mean that discount retailers are facing existential risk – discount & dollar stores are still extremely strong and well-positioned with focused offerings that resonate with consumers. The visitation data does suggest, however, that future growth may need to focus on initiatives other large-scale fleet expansions. Some of these efforts will involve moving upmarket (see pOpShelf), some will focus on fleet optimization, and others may include new offerings and channels.
Return of the middle anyone?
Still, in an environment where consumers have been facing the compounded effects of rising prices, value remains paramount for many shoppers. And brands that have found ways to let customers have their cake and eat it too – enjoy specialty offerings and elevated experiences without breaking the bank – have emerged as major visit winners this year.
Trader Joe’s, in particular, has stood out as one of the leading retail brands for innovative value in 2024, a trend that is expected to continue into 2025.
Trader Joe’s dedicated fan base is positively addicted to the chain’s broad range of high-quality specialty items. But by maintaining a much higher private label mix than most grocers – approximately 80%, compared to an industry average of 25% to 30% – the retailer is also able to keep its pricing competitive. Trader Joe’s cultivates consumer excitement by constantly innovating its product line – there are even websites dedicated to showcasing the chain’s new offerings each season. In turn, Trader Joe’s enjoys much higher visits per square foot than the rest of the grocery category: Over the past twelve months, Trader Joe’s drew a median 56 visits per square foot – compared to 23 for H-E-B, the second-strongest performer.
Casual dining chain Chili’s has also been a standout on the disruptive value front this past year – offering consumers a full-service dining experience at a quick-service price point.
Chili’s launched its Big Smasher Burger on April 29th, 2024, adding the item to its popular ‘3 for Me’ offering, which includes an appetizer, entrée, and drink for just $10.99 – lower than than the average ticket at many quick-service restaurant chains. The innovative promotion, which has been further expanded since, continues to drive impressive visitation trends. With food-away-from-home inflation continuing to decelerate, this strategy of offering deep discounts is likely to continue to be a key story in 2025.
Convenience is king, right?
Well, probably not. If convenience truly were king, visitors would orient themselves to making fewer, longer visits to retailers – to minimize the inconvenience of frequent grocery trips and spend less time on the road. But analyzing the data suggests that, while consumers may want to save time, it is not always their chief concern.
Looking at the superstore and grocery segments (among others) reveals that the proportion of visitors spending under 30 minutes at the grocery store is actually increasing – from 73.3% in Q3 2019 to 76.6% in Q3 2024. This indicates that shoppers are increasingly willing to make shorter trips to the store to pick up just a few items.
At the same time, more consumers than ever are willing to travel farther to visit specialty grocery chains in the search of specific products that make the visit worthwhile.
Cross visitation between chains is also increasing – suggesting that shoppers are willing to make multiple trips to find the products they want – at the right price point. Between Q3 2023 and Q3 2024, the share of traditional grocery store visitors who also visited a Costco at least three times during the quarter grew across chains.
Does this mean convenience doesn’t matter? Of course not. Does it indicate that value, quality and a love of specific products are becoming just as, if not more, important to shoppers? Yes.
The implications here are very significant. If consumers are willing to go out of their way for the right products at the right price points – even at the expense of convenience – then the retailers able to leverage these ‘visit drivers’ will be best positioned to grow their reach considerably. The willingness of consumers to forego convenience considerations when the incentives are right also reinforces the ever-growing importance of the in-store experience.
So while convenience may still be within the royal family, the role of king is up for grabs.
Convenience may not be everything, but the drive for quicker service has emerged as more important than ever in the restaurant space. Diners want their fast food… well, as fast as possible. And to meet this demand, quick-service restaurants (QSRs) and fast-casual chains have been integrating more technology into their operations. Chipotle has been a leader in this regard, unveiling the “Autocado” robot at a Huntington Beach, California location last month. The robot can peel, pit, and chop avocados in record time, a major benefit for the Tex-Mex chain.
And the Autocado seems to be paying off. The Huntington Beach location drew 10.0% more visits compared to the average Chipotle location in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim metro area in Q3 2024. Visitors are visiting more frequently and getting their food more quickly – 43.9% of visits at this location lasted 10 minutes or less, compared to 37.5% at other stores in the CBSA.
Are diners flocking to this Chipotle location to watch the future of avocado chopping in action, or are they enticed by shorter wait times? Time will tell. But with workers able to focus on other aspects of food preparation and customer service, the innovation appears to be resonating with diners.
McDonald’s, too, has leaned into new technologies to streamline its service. The chain debuted its first (almost) fully automated, takeaway-only restaurant in White Settlement, TX in 2022 – where orders are placed at kiosks or on app, and then delivered to customers by robots. (The food is still prepared by humans.) Unsurprisingly, the restaurant drives faster visits than other local McDonald’s locations – in Q3 2023, 79.7% of visits to the chain lasted less than 10 minutes, compared to 68.5% for other McDonald’s in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX CBSA. But crucially, the automated location is also busier than other area McDonald’s, garnering 16.8% more visits in Q3 than the chain’s CBSA-wide average. And the location draws a higher share of late-night visits than other area McDonald’s – customers on the hunt for a late-night snack might be drawn to a restaurant that offers quick, interaction-free service.
Changing store formats is another key trend shaping retail in 2024. Whether by reducing box sizes to cut costs, make stores more accessible, or serve smaller growth markets – or by going big with one-stop shops, retailers are reimagining store design. And the moves are resonating with consumers, driving visits while at the same improving efficiency.
Macy’s, Inc. is one retailer that is leading the small-format charge this year. In February 2024, Macy’s announced its “Bold New Chapter” – a turnaround plan including the downsizing of its traditional eponymous department store fleet and a pivot towards smaller-format Macy’s locations. Macy’s has also continued to expand its highly-curated, small-format Bloomie’s concept, which features a mix of established and trendy pop-up brands tailored to local preferences.
And the data shows that this shift towards small format may be helping Macy’s drive visits with more accessible and targeted offerings that consumers can enjoy as they go about their daily routines: In Q3 2024, Macy’s small-format stores drew a higher share of weekday visitors and of local customers (i.e. those coming from less than seven miles away) than Macy’s traditional stores.
Small-format stores are also making inroads in the home improvement category. The past few years have seen consumers across the U.S. migrating to smaller suburban and rural markets – and retailers like Harbor Freight Tools and Ace Hardware are harnessing their small-format advantage to accommodate these customers while keeping costs low.
Harbor Freight tools and Ace Hardware’s trade areas have a high degree of overlap with some of the highest growth markets in the U.S., many of which have populations under 200K. And while it can be difficult to justify opening a Home Depot or Lowe’s in these hubs – both chains average more than 100,000 square feet per store – Harbor Freight Tools and Ace Hardware’s smaller boxes, generally under 20,000 square feet, are a perfect fit.
This has allowed both chains to tap into the smaller markets which are attracting growing shares of the population. And so while Home Depot and Lowe’s have seen moderate visits declines on a YoY basis, Harbor Freight and Ace Hardware have seen consistent YoY visit boosts since Q1 2024 – outperforming the wider category since early 2023.
Are smaller stores a better bet across the board? At the end of the day, the success of smaller-format stores depends largely on the category. For retail segments that have seen visit trends slow since the pandemic – home furnishings and consumer electronics, for example – smaller-format stores offer brands a more economical way to serve their customers. Retailers have also used smaller-format stores to better curate their merchandise assortments for their most loyal customers, helping to drive improved visit frequency.
That said, a handful of retailers, such as Hy-Vee, have recently bucked the trend of smaller-format stores. These large-format stores are often designed as destination locations – Hy-Vee’s larger-format locations usually offer a full suite of amenities beyond groceries, such as a food hall, eyewear kiosk, beauty department, and candy shop. Rather than focusing on smaller markets, these stores aim to attract visitors from surrounding areas.
Visit data for Hy-Vee’s large-format store in Gretna, Nebraska indicates that this location sees a higher percentage of weekend visits than other area locations – 37.7% compared to 33.1% for the chain’s Omaha CBSA average – as well as more visits lasting over 30 minutes (32.9% compared to 21.9% for the metro area as a whole). For these shoppers, large-format, one-stop shops offer a convenient – and perhaps more exciting – alternative to traditionally sized grocery stores. The success of the large-format stores is another sign that though convenience isn’t everything in 2024, it certainly resonates – especially when paired with added-value offerings.
Many retail brands have entrenched themselves in American culture and become an extension of consumers' identities. And while some of these previously ubiquitous brands have disappeared over the years as the retail industry evolved, others have transformed to keep pace with changing consumer needs – and some have even come back from the brink of extinction. And the quest for value notwithstanding, 2024 has also seen the resurgence of many of these (decidedly non-off-price) legacy brands.
In apparel specifically, Gap and Abercrombie & Fitch – two brands that dominated the cultural zeitgeist of the 1990s and early 2000s before seeing their popularity decline somewhat in the late aughts and 2010s – may be staging a comeback. Bed Bath & Beyond, a leader in the home goods category, is also making a play at returning to physical retail through partnerships.
Anthropologie, another legacy player in women’s fashion and home goods, is also on the rise. Anthropologie’s distinctive aesthetic resonates deeply with consumers – especially women millennials aged 30 to 45. And by capturing the hearts of its customers, the retailer stands as a beacon for retailers that can hedge against promotional activity and still drive foot traffic growth.
And visits to the chain have been rising steadily. In Q4 2023, the chain experienced a bigger holiday season foot traffic spike than pre-pandemic, drawing more overall visits than in Q4 2019. And in Q3 2024, visits were higher than in Q3 2023.
And speaking of the 35 to 40 set – the generation that all retailers are courting? Millennials. Does that sound familiar? Yes, because this is the same generational cohort that retailers tried to target a decade ago. As millennials have aged into the family-formation stage of life, their retail needs have evolved, and the industry is now primed to meet them.
From the revival of nostalgic brands like the Limited Too launch at Kohl’s to warehouse clubs expanding memberships to younger consumers as they move to suburban and rural communities, there are myriad examples of retailers reaching out to this cohort. And Sam’s Club offers a prime example of this trend.
Over the past few years, millennials and Gen-Zers have emerged as major drivers of membership growth at Sam’s Club, drawn to the retailer’s value offerings and digital upgrades – like the club’s Scan & Go technology. Over the same period, Sam’s Club has grown the share of “Singles and Starters” households in its captured market from 6% above the national benchmark in Q3 2019 to 15% in Q3 2024. And with plans to involve customers in co-creating products for its private-label brand, Sam’s Club may continue to grow its market share among this value-conscious – but also discerning and optimistic – demographic.
Millennials are also now old enough to wax nostalgic about their youth – and brands are paying attention. This summer, Taco Bell leaned into nostalgia with a promotion bringing back iconic menu items from the 60s, 70s, 80s, and 90s – all priced under $3. The promotion, which soft-launched at three Southern California locations in August, was so successful that the company is now offering the specials nationwide. The three locations that trialed the “Decades Menu” saw significant boosts in visits during the promotional period compared to their daily averages for August. And people came from far and wide to sample the offerings – with a higher proportion of visitors traveling over seven miles to reach the stores while the items were available.
Hot on the heels of a tumultuous 2023, 2024’s retail environment has certainly kept retailers on their toes. While embracing innovative value has helped some chains thrive, other previously ascendant value segments, including discount & dollar stores, may have reached their growth ceilings. Consumers clearly care about convenience – but are willing to make multiple grocery stops to find what they need. At the same time, legacy brands are plotting their comeback, while others are harnessing the power of nostalgia to drive millennials – and other consumers – through their doors.
The grocery industry has navigated unprecedented challenges in recent years – from pandemic-driven shifts in consumer behavior and supply chain disruptions to rising costs, labor shortages, and increased operational demands. In the face of these hurdles, the category has been pushed to innovate, adapting everything from product selections to shopping formats to meet changing consumer expectations.
But within the grocery industry, some segments resonate particularly strongly with the 2024 consumer. This white paper dives into the data to explore two segments that have been leading category-wide visit growth for some time: specialty and fresh format stores, which focus on produce, organic foods, and culturally specific items (think Trader Joe’s, Sprouts Farmers Market, and H Mart, to name a few), and value grocery chains like Aldi, WinCo Foods, and Grocery Outlet Bargain Market. Location analytics show shoppers are increasingly drawn to these two grocery store types, a shift that has the potential to reshape the grocery landscape.
How did value and specialty grocery chains perform in Q3 2024 in comparison to traditional supermarkets like Kroger, Albertsons, and H-E-B? How does visitor behavior vary between the three grocery segments, and what differences can be observed in the demographic and psychographic make-ups of their trade areas? The report explores these questions and more below.
The grocery industry has performed well over the past few months, with steady weekly year-over-year (YoY) visit increases throughout Q3 2024. During the week of July 1st, the segment saw a 4.6% YoY foot traffic boost, likely driven by shoppers loading up on ingredients for Independence Day barbecues and picnics. And after tapering somewhat in early August, visits picked up again in September, with YoY increases ranging from 2.0% to 2.9% throughout the month. This positive growth is a good sign for the segment – which has experienced more than its fair share of challenges over the past few years.
Though the grocery category as a whole is thriving, a closer look at different segments within the industry reveals that some are seeing more significant growth than others.
Indeed, digging deeper into grocery visits throughout Q3 2024 reveals that much of the industry’s growth is being driven by specialty and fresh format stores and value grocery chains. The two segments offer markedly different shopping experiences: Specialty chains tend to emphasize harder-to-find ingredients and fresh produce – sometimes even at higher price points than traditional grocery stores – while value grocery stores focus on affordability. But both categories are experiencing outsize visit growth in 2024, highlighting consumers’ dual interest in both quality and value.
In July and August 2024, traditional supermarkets, specialty grocers, and value chains all experienced positive YoY visit growth. But while traditional grocery stores saw a 3.1% increase in July and just a 0.9% uptick in August, value and specialty chains saw YoY growth ranging from 4.7% to 7.7% during the two months. In September 2024, YoY visits to traditional grocery stores fell by 0.5%, while value and specialty chains saw 5.0% and 5.2% increases, respectively. For today’s consumer, it seems, savings are key – but specialty offerings also resonate strongly.
Today’s grocery shoppers are increasingly embracing specialty grocery options – and analyzing consumer driving habits to grocery stores shows that they are willing to go the extra mile to reach them.
Breaking down grocery visits by distance traveled reveals that just 18.5% of visits to specialty and fresh format grocery chains came from less than one mile away in Q3 2024 – compared to 23.9% for traditional grocery stores and 23.2% for value chains. Similarly, 31.3% of visits to specialty and fresh format grocery stores originated from one to three miles away, compared to 34.7% and 34.5% for the other analyzed segments.
On the flip side, some 26.4% of visits to specialty and fresh format stores were made by people traveling at least seven miles to do their shopping – compared to 22.7% and 21.4% for traditional and value chains, respectively. Specialty grocery operators can account for this difference, locating stores in areas accessible to geographically dispersed audiences eager to shop their unique offerings.
And a look at changes in visitor behavior at three key specialty chains – Trader Joe’s, Sprouts Farmers Market, and Great Wall Supermarket – shows that even as these brands expand their footprints, customers are increasingly willing to travel the distance to visit them. Between 2019 and 2024, all three chains saw a marked increase in the share of visitors traveling over seven miles to shop their offerings. .
Asian grocery chain Great Wall Supermarket, a relatively small regional chain with some 22 locations across eight states, saw the most significant increase in visits from afar over the analyzed period. In Q3 2024, 32.3% of visits to the chain originated from seven or more miles away, up from 28.3% in Q3 2019. Ranked America’s Best Supermarket by Newsweek in 2024, the chain’s wide selection of everything from seafood to fresh produce has made it a hit among Asian food aficionados – and as the supermarket’s reputation grows, so does its draw among customers living further away from its venues.
Consumer favorite Trader Joe’s and organic grocery chain Sprouts Farmers Market also grew their shares of long-distance visits between 2019 and 2024 – no small feat for the two chains, given their expansion over the past several years.
This travel distance snapshot serves as a reminder of the unique role played by specialty grocery stores that offer their customers unique shopping experiences, premium or organic products, and culturally specific items. Shoppers will go out of their way to travel to these stores – and even as they expand and become more readily accessible, their growing popularity makes them ever-more attractive destinations for customers coming from further away.
While visitors to specialty grocery chains often travel long distances for unique offerings, cost-conscious consumers at value stores exhibit other behaviors that differentiate them from traditional and specialty grocery shoppers.
The rising cost of living has pushed the discount retail segment into overdrive – and value grocery chains are also benefiting. The category has flourished in recent years, with many bargain-oriented grocery chains adding new stores at a rapid clip to meet burgeoning consumer demand.
Like visitors to specialty grocery chains, value grocery shoppers demonstrate segment-specific behaviors that reflect their preferences and habits. And perhaps most strikingly, foot traffic data reveals that these shoppers tend to stay longer in-store than visitors to traditional and specialty grocery chains.
In Q3 2024, 26.5% of visits to value grocery chains lasted longer than 30 minutes, compared to 23.4% for traditional grocery chains and 23.7% for specialty and fresh format chains. This suggests that these stores attract shoppers who take their time and carefully consider price points, looking for the best value for their dollar – a need that the chains they frequent seem to be meeting.
Given the tremendous success of the value grocery space in recent years, it may come as no surprise that some traditional supermarkets are getting in on the action by opening or expanding discount banners of their own. How do such off-shoot banners impact these grocers’ reach?
Cult-favorite Texas grocery chain H-E-B opened the first branch of its value banner, Joe V’s Smart Shop, in 2010. The discount arm currently includes 11 stores – mainly in the Houston area – with several new stores opening, or in planning stages, in Dallas.
And foot traffic data shows that Joe V's attracts mission-driven shoppers who make less frequent but significantly longer trips than visitors to traditional grocery stores. In Q3 2024, the average visit duration at Joe V’s was 37.8 minutes, compared to just 26.8 minutes at H-E-B – a full 11 minute difference. At the same time, while 38.5% of Q3 visits to H-E-B were made by customers frequenting the chain, on average, at least four times a month, just 11.8% of visits to Joe V’s were made by visitors reaching that threshold.
Joe V’s is also more likely than H-E-B to attract parental households, with 36.8% of its captured market made up of households with children – significantly higher than H-E-B’s 32.0%.
Together, these data points paint a picture of the average Joe V’s shopper: cost-conscious, likely to have children, and inclined to carefully plan shopping trips to maximize savings and cut down on grocery runs. This suggests that they are mission-driven and focused on stocking up rather than running out to grab ingredients as the need arises.
Major grocery store operators often operate a variety of store types at different price points to appeal to as many shoppers as possible, and Hy-Vee is no exception. The regional grocery favorite launched a discount chain, Dollar Fresh, in 2018 and currently operates 25 stores under that banner, aiming to attract middle-class, cost-conscious shoppers.
Using Experian’s Mosaic dataset to analyze Dollar Fresh’s trade area reveals that the chain’s captured market features significantly higher shares of lower-middle-class family consumers than its potential one – highlighting its special draw for these shoppers. (A chain’s potential market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to population size, thus reflecting the overall makeup of the chain’s trade area. A business’ captured market, on the other hand, is obtained by weighting each CBG according to its share of visits to the chain in question – and thus represents the profile of its actual visitor base. Comparing a chain’s captured market to its potential one can serve as a helpful gauge of the brand’s success at attracting key audience segments.)
In Q3 2024, the “Pastoral Pride” family segment represented 11.4% of Dollar Fresh’s captured market, compared to just 5.3% of its potential market. This over-representation of lower-middle-class consumers from small towns in Dollar Fresh’s captured market indicates that the chain is especially effective at drawing customers that belong to this segment. Though Hy-Vee’s captured market also boasted a higher share of this demographic than its potential one in Q3, the difference was much smaller – and the chain’s overall reach among these consumers was more limited.
In contrast, Hy-Vee excels at attracting “Flourishing Families” – affluent, middle-aged families and couples – who made up 10.3% of the supermarket’s captured market in Q3 2024. Dollar Fresh’s captured market, on the other hand, featured a smaller share of this segment than its potential one – showing that the discount chain is of less interest to these consumers. So while Hy-Vee tends to appeal to higher-income families with more spending flexibility, value-conscious shoppers have been making their way to Dollar Fresh.
This audience segmentation analysis shows how value offerings help grocery chains attract wider audiences – and highlights the advantage of operating multiple store types to appeal to a broader range of shoppers.
People will always need access to a variety of fresh foods – ensuring that grocery stores and supermarkets continue to play a vital role in in the retail landscape. And while the category as a whole has continued to thrive even in today’s challenging environment, specialty and value grocery chains resonate particularly strongly with the 2024 consumer. As grocery retailers diversify their formats, those aligning with consumer preferences for affordability, uniqueness, and quality are well-positioned for continued growth.
