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Cautious consumer spending and aggressive discounting across the dining industry have made it increasingly difficult for fast-food brands to sustain steady foot traffic in 2025. And against this challenging backdrop, Wendy’s saw same-store visits decline 6.3% year over year (YoY) in Q3 – with the steepest drop-off occurring in September. Looking ahead, the brand faces an even tougher YoY comparison in October 2025, when it will lap the highly successful Krabby Patty Kollab that fueled an exceptional traffic surge in October 2024.
On the company’s latest earnings call, executives acknowledged that an overload of overlapping deals had left customers confused. Interim CEO Ken Cook said seeing “eight different deals at point of purchase” made it unclear what guests were coming for. The company has since adopted a “less-is-more” approach, simplifying its promotional calendar to focus on a few high-impact offerings.
And despite the continued slowdown, this simplified approach is showing early promise. On July 14th, 2025, Wendy’s introduced a can’t-miss $1 breakfast biscuit deal that let guests purchase up to five biscuits per morning with no sign-up or purchase requirements. The limited-time offer ran through late August – and even as traffic softened during other dayparts, breakfast visits between 6:00 and 10:00 AM rose 0.9% YoY in Q3, with a sharp 11.6% surge in August. Though the promotion has since ended, its success provides a blueprint for the company as it heads into the last quarter of the year.
By simplifying its value message, Wendy’s aims to ease decision fatigue and re-energize consumers around clear, compelling offers. And the success of the chain’s summer breakfast promotion suggests that this focused strategy could help restore traffic momentum in the months ahead.
For more data-driven QSR insights, explore Placer.ai's free Industry Trends tool.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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Consumers continue to navigate high food costs and cautious spending, and some of the largest quick-service dining operators in the country are feeling the effects. We analyzed the visit data for leading QSR players Yum! Brands (YUM) and Restaurant Brands International (RBI) to assess their performance in the third quarter of 2025.
Yum! Brands emerged as a success story in Q1 and Q2 2025, with both visits and average visits per location showing moderate growth. That momentum has continued into Q3, with overall visits elevated by a modest 0.3% and average visits per location rising 1.3% – a strong showing in a period where the overall QSR sector has been showing signs of strain.
Taco Bell has long served as Yum! Brands’ primary U.S. growth engine, delivering 9.0% and 4.0% YoY same-store sales growth in Q1 and Q2 2025, respectively. And in Q3 2025, the brand continued to thrive – though visits increased at a slightly slower pace than in Q2. Through initiatives like its $3 Y2K menu and the rollout of Live Más Cafés and specialty beverages tailored to Gen Z tastes, Taco Bell continues to balance value, nostalgia, and innovation – driving steady traffic and strengthening its connection with consumers.
The big surprises of Q3 were KFC and Pizza Hut, both of which showed meaningful improvements in foot traffic after several quarters of underperformance. At Pizza Hut, the $2-Buck Tuesday promotion that ran through most of July and August drew strong weekday crowds, helping to lift same-store visits 0.6% year-over-year.
Meanwhile, at KFC, there are early signs that the brand’s “Kentucky Fried Comeback” initiative is beginning to pay off. Same-store visits increased 1.1% YoY in Q3, a substantial improvement from Q2, when same-store sales fell 5.0% and same-store traffic declined 4.6% YoY. The return of fan-favorite menu items like Potato Wedges and Hot & Spicy Wings also appears to have helped reignite consumer enthusiasm.
Restaurant Brands International (RBI), owner of Burger King, Popeyes, Tim Hortons, and Firehouse Subs, saw visits slow in Q3 2025. Overall traffic declined 3.3% YoY, slightly more than the wider QSR category, though average visits per location outperformed QSR with a smaller 2.3% drop.
RBI’s trajectory is largely driven by Burger King, which in Q3 2025 saw traffic decline by 3.6% YoY. Still, same-store visits to BK fell only 1.8% YoY, showing the brand’s success in sustaining traffic levels in a challenging QSR landscape. Popeyes experienced a modest same-store traffic decline, while Time Hortons saw a steeper drop.
RBI’s fast-casual Firehouse Subs, however, posted YoY visit growth, with overall visits up 1.6% and same-store visits holding steady at 0.6% – impressive performance even as the chain continues to expand its unit count. Part of this strength may stem from the chain’s relatively affluent customer base – according to data from STI:PopStats, Firehouse Subs’ captured market had a median household income (HHI) of $76.3K in Q3, compared to $67.0K for Burger King, $67.8K for Popeye’s, and $68.1K for Tim Hortons.
With consumer caution reshaping dining habits, even top QSR brands are feeling the pinch. Can Yum! sustain its momentum into Q4 or will broader dining headwinds slow its pace? And will RBI’s same-store visit trajectory continue to outpace the wider segment?
For the most up-to-date dining data, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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For much of the past few years, Shake Shack and Wingstop seemed unstoppable, riding the fast-casual boom with strong traffic, loyal followings, and steady expansion. But as consumer spending patterns evolve, the latest visitation data suggests both brands are entering a new phase. We took a closer look at their Q3 visitation trends to see what foot traffic trends reveal about their performance.
Diving into Shake Shack’s foot traffic reveals the story of a brand growing through expansion. Overall visits to the chain grew by 15.1% in Q3 2025, an impressive increase in a period of cooling consumer sentiment. However, same-store visits slowed slightly, suggesting that this growth is a result of a rapidly expanding fleet rather than increased visitation at existing stores.
These traffic metrics align with recent company reports – in Q2 2025, overall revenue rose 12.6% in the wake of new store openings, while same-store sales inched up just 1.8% YoY, buoyed by higher menu prices. Shake Shack’s ability to rapidly expand its fleet while maintaining essentially stable same-store foot traffic – even while raising prices – suggests that the chain’s higher-income customer base continues to see Shake Shack as an affordable indulgence even in a cautious spending climate.
Wingstop is also in expansion mode, adding stores at a brisk pace this year. But since mid-summer, overall foot traffic growth has stagnated, with Q3 showing a 2.8% YoY decline and same-store visits falling even more sharply.
Part of this drop reflects an exceptionally tough comparison to Q3 2024, when visits surged 24.2% YoY overall and 14.0% on a same-store basis. (By contrast, Shake Shack saw overall visits increase 19.1%, while same-store visits held roughly flat at -0.8% during the same period).
Wingstop’s YoY visit slowdown should also be viewed in the context of its expanding digital business – online orders rose to 72.2% of total sales in Q2 2025. The chain’s growing digital business helped deliver a stronger-than-expected Q2, which saw domestic same-store sales down just 1.9%, despite lapping 28.7% growth in Q2 2024.
The company continues to expand aggressively, adding more than 120 net new restaurants in Q2 alone. Still, Wingstop’s leadership has acknowledged that near-term volatility may be expected, given exceptionally strong comparisons to 2024 and ongoing economic uncertainty affecting its more value-conscious customers.
Against this challenging backdrop, both brands have found extra strength in specials and limited-time offers (LTOs), which continue to drive measurable visit lifts to their restaurants.
Wingstop’s positioning closer to the value end of fast-casual makes it more vulnerable to inflation fatigue – and makes short-term specials all the more appealing to its customers. Indeed, visits jumped to their highest levels all year during the week of National Chicken Wing Day (July 29, 2025), when the chain lured budget-conscious diners with a free wing promotion.
Meanwhile, Shake Shack saw visit upticks during the weeks of May 26 and June 23 – the first likely driven in part by its free ShackBurger offer on orders over $10, and the second by the return of its viral Dubai Chocolate Shake.
Together, these bursts of activity reinforce a key point: Both chains are navigating a market where consumers are more selective, but still willing to show up for the right product, price, or promotion.
Both Shake Shack and Wingstop have entered a more measured phase of growth in 2025. Expansion remains central to each brand’s strategy, but digital engagement and timely promotions are playing an increasingly important role. As consumers become more selective, balancing scale with loyalty and value will likely define the next stage of growth for each chain.
For the most up-to-date dining data, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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The quick-service restaurant category has seen mixed results this past quarter, as softer consumer spending continues to pressure much of the sector. Yet the coffee subcategory continues to thrive, with much of its success coming from smaller brands.
We took a closer look at the visitation trends for the category, across major brands and smaller ones, to pinpoint where this growth is happening.
Even with consumers tightening their belts, coffee chains are holding their own. Visits to the coffee segment were up 1.4% YoY in 2025, compared to a 2.7% drop across the broader quick-service restaurant (QSR) segment.
But digging deeper into average visits per location tells a more nuanced story: Visits to individual coffee venues declined 2.9% in Q3, only slightly outperforming the 3.3% drop across the wider QSR segment. In other words, coffee’s visit growth is being powered primarily by chain expansion rather than heavier traffic to existing units. Still, the category’s ability to sustain growth amid consumer pullbacks highlights coffee’s unique staying power – an everyday indulgence that consumers seem unwilling to give up, even as other affordable dining luxuries lose steam.
Starbucks and Dunkin’ are the two largest coffee chains in the United States by wide margins – Dunkin’ recently celebrated the opening of its 10,000th store, while Starbucks boasts roughly 17,230 locations nationwide. And despite ongoing challenges in the broader QSR segment, both coffee behemoths maintained relatively stable overall visit trends in Q3 2025. Starbucks saw a modest -1.7% decline in total visits compared to 2024, while Dunkin’ visits dipped by just -0.7%.
Dunkin’, however, outperformed Starbucks on a same-store basis, holding nearly flat with just a 1.7% decline – likely reflecting its stronger value positioning. Starbucks, by contrast, saw same-store visits fall 5.2% YoY, though the return of its Pumpkin Spice Latte once again provided a substantial lift. Both brands also experienced a slowdown in September, suggesting that consumers may be pulling back on small indulgences as they shift discretionary spending toward holiday gifts and larger upcoming expenses.
Even as Starbucks and Dunkin’ anchor the national market, smaller brands are driving much of the coffee category’s momentum – including the ever-popular Oregon-based Dutch Bros. The drive-thru brand has been on a major growth streak over the past several years, adding new locations at a brisk pace with a goal of reaching 2,029 units by 2029.
In Q3 2025, total visits to Dutch Bros rose 8.8% year-over-year, while same-store visits hovered just below 2024 levels – a modest slowdown from Q2, when total visits increased 13.8% and same-store visits rose 1.9%, consistent with strong quarterly comps. Still, maintaining nearly steady traffic amid such rapid expansion points to healthy, sustained demand and strong brand loyalty, even as the chain continues its robust growth push.
The meteoric rise of several even smaller coffee chains is also fueling the category’s growth. In Q3 2025, many of these emerging players saw double-digit visit gains, signaling that expansion opportunities in the coffee space extend well beyond the established giants.
7 Brew Coffee, one of the country’s fastest-growing coffee chains, led the visit growth pack, with foot traffic up 80.4% compared to Q3 2024 and same-store visits climbing an impressive 19.4%. Better Buzz Coffee Roasters followed with visits up 72.3% and a 2.4% rise in same-store visits – suggesting that its footprint expansion is being well-received. Florida chain Foxtail Coffee was the third growth leader in Q3 2025, with visits increasing 46.8% year-over-year, reflecting its growing footprint in states like Michigan and Georgia. Meanwhile, Black Rock Coffee Bar, which made headlines with a successful IPO last month, saw visits climb 6.5%, even as same-store visits edged just under 2024 levels.
The growing strength of these regional brands – many of which, like Dutch Bros, emphasize speed and convenience through drive-thru formats – could reshape the competitive coffee landscape heading into 2026.
While the wider dining sector is contracting, the coffee space is holding firm, with small chains helping to drive much of the segment’s growth.
For the most up-to-date dining data, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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As consumers continue to navigate economic pressures and many full-service dining chains face softer demand, two major players – Chili’s, under Brinker International, and Texas Roadhouse, part of Texas Roadhouse Inc. – are standing out for their ability to drive sustained traffic growth. Using location analytics, we revisit the companies’ previous performance and provide a data-driven context for what they may reveal in upcoming earnings reports.
Chili’s has emerged as a standout in full-service dining, delivering strong year-over-year (YoY) growth in both overall and same-store visits in Q2 – results consistent with Brinker’s own reporting. And with similarly elevated visit trends in Q3, management is likely to echo these results in its upcoming earnings commentary.
Texas Roadhouse also reported higher traffic and comp sales in Q2 2025, and given the YoY gains in both overall and same-store visits in Q3, the company is likely to highlight a similar trend in its upcoming results.
And while both Chili’s and Texas Roadhouse are driving strong traffic, each is pursuing growth through distinct strategies. Chili’s is focused on simplifying its menu and modernizing kitchen and dining-room technology – moves designed to improve the quality of the guest experience and boost efficiency. Texas Roadhouse, by contrast, continues to prioritize unit expansion while also rolling out a digital kitchen format to enhance operational efficiency and better support off-premise sales.
In order to offset rising costs, both Chili’s and Texas Roadhouse management have announced modest menu price increases in the near future, but the key question is how their respective customer bases will respond.
Both Chili’s and Texas Roadhouse employ a barbell pricing strategy – keeping certain menu items at accessible price points while also offering more premium options. This approach enables the brands to emphasize value during periods of economic pressure while still catering to diners splurging on celebratory experiences. Each brand, however, takes a different approach; while Chili’s embraces viral deals, Texas Roadhouse emphasizes everyday value and doesn’t run promotions.
The graph below shows that the median household income in both Chili’s and Texas Roadhouse captured trade areas is consistently below the nationwide benchmark of $79.6K per year – underscoring the importance for these brands to maintain a strong value proposition that resonates with price-sensitive diners.
Between Q3 2022 and Q3 2023, the median HHI of Chili’s and Texas Roadhouse’s visitors increased by about $1K – suggesting more resilience and the means to trade-up to higher-priced menu items among the brands’ audiences.
But between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025, the rise in diners’ median HHI appears to have plateaued: Chili’s median HHI dipped slightly while Texas Roadhouse’s rose by just a couple hundred dollars. This trend indicates that both brands are currently resonating most with middle- and lower-income consumers – understandable, as Chili’s, for one, continues to emphasize its 3 For Me value play and reinforce value perception. It remains to be seen whether these brands’ strong value positioning will continue to hold appeal among lower-income diners if menu prices rise and the perceived value equation shifts – or whether they will increasingly rely on higher-income guests.
Still, a closer look at captured market household incomes by bracket shows that both chains attract significant shares of high-income diners. While the median household incomes in Chili’s and Texas Roadhouse’s captured markets remain below the nationwide benchmark, in Q3 2025 both brands were on par with the nationwide average – or even slightly over-indexed – for households earning between $100K and $150K per year.
This suggests that higher-income households already represent a meaningful share of visits to both chains – a group with the spending power to help sustain traffic and trade up to premium menu items. Targeting households with incomes up to $150K per year could further strengthen Chili’s and Texas Roadhouse’s resilience amid a potential softening in consumer spending.
Chili’s and Texas Roadhouse are both navigating a shifting dining landscape by balancing value and experience through distinct strategies. Chili’s continues to refine operations and emphasize promotions, while Texas Roadhouse leans on expansion and consistent everyday value. As economic pressures evolve, both brands’ ability to maintain strong value perceptions while engaging higher-income diners will be key to sustaining momentum and traffic resilience.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
October once marked the calm before the holiday storm, but in recent years, it has become an important launch point for seasonal promotions. And the stakes seem even higher this year as retailers aim to capture demand from price-conscious consumers; battered by inflation and wary of potential tariff-driven price hikes and product shortages. We analyzed visit patterns across several major chains that launched early-October promotions – along with activity at e-commerce distribution centers – to understand how these events shaped the opening act of the holiday retail season.
The first full week of October has become a retail battleground, as major players – Amazon, Best Buy, Target, Walmart, and Kohl’s – all rolled out overlapping promotions designed to capture early holiday demand and pull spending forward before the traditional Black Friday surge.
As the graph below shows, in-store traffic to Walmart and Target during their October 2025 sales events – which ran on the equivalent dates as in 2024 – trailed last year’s levels. Even Kohl’s, which extended its event from three days last year to four this year, experienced a modest year-over-year (YoY) decline in visits compared to the corresponding dates in 2024 – though the chain, which closed several locations over the past year, saw average visits per location hold steady at -0.8% YoY. This suggests that some shoppers may simply be cutting back, or expecting deeper discounts later in the season – particularly as tighter household budgets leave less room for discretionary spending this year.
However, Best Buy – which launched its “Techtober” event to compete directly with other major sales this October – saw visits rise 2.2% compared to the same days in 2024, when no equivalent promotion was held. This indicates that consumers were drawn both by the novelty of Best Buy’s new event and by the strong value proposition of its tech-focused deals.
Analysis of both in-store visits and activity at e-commerce distribution centers – including those operated by Amazon, Walmart, and Target – before and during the early-October promotional period offers a more nuanced view of how this window fits into the broader holiday retail season.
The graph below shows that daily foot traffic at e-commerce distribution centers – a proxy for employee and partner activity related to inventory buildup and order fulfillment – rose above average in late September 2025, ahead of the anticipated October promotions. Meanwhile, consumers appeared to be holding back on in-store visits, waiting for expected October discounts.
Then, e-commerce distribution center activity surged during the promotional period itself (October 5–12) as orders were placed and prepared for shipment, underscoring the critical online component driving the success of October sales events for retailers.
At the same time, in-store traffic at Walmart, Target, Kohl’s, and Best Buy also increased compared to late September, reaffirming consumers’ interest in potentially cost-saving hybrid shopping options and setting the tone for the rest of the holiday season.
Notably, Best Buy’s strongest surge in visits occurred during its overlap with Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days (October 7-8), suggesting that shoppers may have been cherry-picking deals across platforms – a sign that retailers can benefit from the heightened product awareness generated by concurrent sales events.
And Kohl’s largest visit surge of the promotional period occurred just after its main sales event, on October 10th. This post-sale visit surge appears to have been fueled by the chain’s Kohl’s Cash promotion, which allowed customers to earn $10 for every $50 spent during the sale and redeem it for a limited period beginning October 10th. This strategy effectively extended the impact of the sale beyond its official end date, encouraging incremental spending and driving traffic even after the core discount window had closed.
The early-October promotional window has evolved into a meaningful, multi-channel retail moment. As shoppers search for deeper discounts, early events continue to play a strategic role in-store and online.
Will these retailers turn early-season promotions into lasting momentum throughout the holidays? Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
New York City is one of the world’s leading commercial centers – and Manhattan, home to some of the nation's most prominent corporations, is at its epicenter. Manhattan’s substantial in-office workforce has helped make New York a post-pandemic office recovery leader, outpacing most other major U.S. hubs. And the plethora of healthcare, service, and other on-site workers that keep the island humming along also contribute to its thriving employment landscape.
Using the latest location analytics, this report examines the shifting dynamics of the many on-site workers employed in Manhattan and the up-and-coming Hudson Yards neighborhood. Where does today’s Manhattan workforce come from? How often do on-site employees visit Hudson Yards? And how has the share of young professionals across Manhattan’s different districts shifted since the pandemic?
Read on to find out.
The rise in work-from-home (WFH) trends during the pandemic and the persistence of hybrid work have changed the face of commuting in Manhattan.
In Q2 2019, nearly 60% of employee visits to Manhattan originated off the island. But in Q2 2021, that share fell to just 43.9% – likely due to many commuters avoiding public transportation and practicing social distancing during COVID.
Since Q2 2022, however, the share of employee visits to Manhattan from outside the borough has rebounded – steadily approaching, but not yet reaching, pre-pandemic levels. By Q2 2024, 54.7% of employee visits to Manhattan originated from elsewhere – likely a reflection of the Big Apple’s accelerated RTO that is drawing in-office workers back into the city.
Unsurprisingly, some nearby boroughs – including Queens and the Bronx – have seen their share of Manhattan worker visits bounce back to what they were in 2019, while further-away areas of New York and New Jersey continue to lag behind. But Q2 2024 also saw an increase in the share of Manhattan workers commuting from other states – both compared to 2023 and compared to 2019 – perhaps reflecting the rise of super commuting.
Commuting into Manhattan is on the rise – but how often are employees making the trip? Diving into the data for employees based in Hudson Yards – Manhattan’s newest retail, office, and residential hub, which was officially opened to the public in March 2019 – reveals that the local workforce favors fewer in-person work days than in the past.
In August 2019, before the pandemic, 60.2% of Hudson Yards-based employees visited the neighborhood at least fifteen times. But by August 2021, the neighborhood’s share of near-full-time on-site workers had begun to drop – and it has declined ever since. In August 2024, only 22.6% of local workers visited the neighborhood 15+ times throughout the month. Meanwhile, the share of Hudson Yards-based employees making an appearance between five and nine times during the month emerged as the most common visit frequency by August 2022 – and has continued to increase since. In August 2024, 25.0% of employees visited the neighborhood less than five times a month, 32.5% visited between five and nine times, and 19.2% visited between 10 and 14 times.
Like other workers throughout Manhattan, Hudson Yards employees seem to have fully embraced the new hybrid normal – coming into the office between one and four times a week.
But not all employment centers in the Hudson Yards neighborhood see the same patterns of on-site work. Some of the newest office buildings in the area appear to attract employees more frequently and from further away than other properties.
Of the Hudson Yards properties analyzed, Two Manhattan West, which was completed this year, attracted the largest share of frequent, long-distance commuters in August 2024 (15.3%) – defined as employees visiting 10+ times per month from at least 30 miles away. And The Spiral, which opened last year, drew the second-largest share of such on-site workers (12.3%).
Employees in these skyscrapers may prioritize in-person work – or have been encouraged by their employers to return to the office – more than their counterparts in other Hudson Yards buildings. Employees may also choose to come in more frequently to enjoy these properties’ newer and more advanced amenities. And service and shift workers at these properties may also be coming in more frequently to support the buildings’ elevated occupancy.
Diving deeper into the segmentation of on-site employees in the Hudson Yards district provides further insight into this unique on-site workforce.
Analysis of POIs corresponding to several commercial and office hubs in the borough reveals that between August 2019 and August 2024, Hudson Yards’ captured market had the fastest-growing share of employees belonging to STI: Landscape's “Apprentices” segment, which encompasses young, highly-paid professionals in urban settings.
Companies looking to attract young talent have already noticed that these young professionals are receptive to Hudson Yards’ vibrant atmosphere and collaborative spaces, and describe this as a key factor in their choice to lease local offices.
Manhattan is a bastion of commerce, and its strong on-site workforce has helped lead the nation’s post-pandemic office recovery. But the dynamics of the many Manhattan-based workers continues to shift. And as new commercial and residential hubs emerge on the island, workplace trends and the characteristics of employees are almost certain to evolve with them.
The restaurant space has experienced its fair share of challenges in recent years – from pandemic-related closures to rising labor and ingredient costs. Despite these hurdles, the category is holding its own, with total 2024 spending projected to reach $1.1 trillion by the end of the year.
And an analysis of year-over-year (YoY) visitation trends to restaurants nationwide shows that consumers are frequenting dining establishments in growing numbers – despite food-away-from-home prices that remain stubbornly high.
Overall, monthly visits to restaurants were up nearly every month this year compared to the equivalent periods of 2023. Only in January, when inclement weather kept many consumers at home, did restaurants see a significant YoY drop. Throughout the rest of the analyzed period, YoY visits either held steady or grew – showing that Americans are finding room in their budgets to treat themselves to tasty, hassle-free meals.
Still, costs remain elevated and dining preferences have shifted, with consumers prioritizing value and convenience – and restaurants across segments are looking for ways to meet these changing needs. This white paper dives into the data to explore the trends impacting quick-service restaurants (QSR), full-service restaurants (FSR), and fast-casual dining venues – and strategies all three categories are using to stay ahead of the pack.
Overall, the dining sector has performed well in 2024, but a closer look at specific segments within the industry shows that fast-casual restaurants are outperforming both QSR and FSR chains.
Between January and August 2024, visits to fast-casual establishments were up 3.3% YoY, while QSR visits grew by just 0.7%, and FSR visits fell by 0.3% YoY. As eating out becomes more expensive, consumers are gravitating toward dining options that offer better perceived value without compromising on quality. Fast-casual chains, which balance affordability with higher-quality ingredients and experiences, have increasingly become the go-to choice for value-conscious diners.
Fast-casual restaurants also tend to attract a higher-income demographic. Between January and August 2024, fast-casual restaurants drew visitors from Census Block Groups (CBGs) with a weighted median household income of $78.2K – higher than the nationwide median of $76.1K. (The CBGs feeding visits to these restaurants, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each CBG, are collectively referred to as their captured market).
Perhaps unsurprisingly, quick-service restaurants drew visitors from much less affluent areas. But interestingly, despite their pricier offerings, full-service restaurants also drew visitors from CBGs with a median HHI below the nationwide baseline. While fast-casual restaurants likely attract office-goers and other routine diners that can afford to eat out on a more regular basis, FSR chains may serve as special occasion destinations for those with more moderate means.
Though QSR, FSR, and fast-casual spots all seek to provide strong value propositions, dining chains across segments have been forced to raise prices over the past year to offset rising food and labor costs. This next section takes a look at several chains that have succeeded in raising prices without sacrificing visit growth – to explore some of the strategies that have enabled them to thrive.
The fast-casual restaurant space attracts diners that are on the wealthier side – but some establishments cater to even higher earners. One chain of note is NYC-based burger chain Shake Shack, which features a captured market median HHI of $94.3K. In comparison, the typical fast-casual diner comes from areas with a median HHI of $78.2K.
Shake Shack emphasizes high-quality ingredients and prices its offerings accordingly. The chain, which has been expanding its footprint, strategically places its locations in affluent, upscale, and high-traffic neighborhoods – driving foot traffic that consistently surpasses other fast-casual chains. And this elevated foot traffic has continued to impress, even as Shake Shack has raised its prices by 2.5% over the past year.
Steakhouse chain Texas Roadhouse has enjoyed a positive few years, weathering the pandemic with aplomb before moving into an expansion phase. And this year, the chain ranked in the top five for service, food quality, and overall experience by the 2024 Datassential Top 500 Restaurant Chain.
Like Shake Shack, Texas Roadhouse has raised its prices over the past year – three times – while maintaining impressive visit metrics. Between January and August 2024, foot traffic to the steakhouse grew by 9.7% YoY, outpacing visits to the overall FSR segment by wide margins.
This foot traffic growth is fueled not only by expansion but also by the chain's ability to draw traffic during quieter dayparts like weekday afternoons, while at the same time capitalizing on high-traffic times like weekends. Some 27.7% of weekday visits to Texas Roadhouse take place between 3:00 PM and 6:00 PM – compared to just 18.9% for the broader FSR segment – thanks to the chain’s happy hour offerings early dining specials. And 43.3% of visits to the popular steakhouse take place on Saturdays and Sundays, when many diners are increasingly choosing to splurge on restaurant meals, compared to 38.4% for the wider category.
Though rising costs have been on everybody’s minds, summer 2024 may be best remembered as the summer of value – with many quick-service restaurants seeking to counter higher prices by embracing Limited-Time Offers (LTOs). These LTOs offered diners the opportunity to save at the register and get more bang for their buck – while boosting visits at QSR chains across the country.
Limited time offers such as discounted meals and combo offers can encourage frequent visits, and Hardee’s $5.99 "Original Bag" combo, launched in August 2024, did just that. The combo allowed diners to mix and match popular items like the Double Cheeseburger and Hand-Breaded Chicken Tender Wraps, offering both variety and affordability. And visits to the chain during the month of August 2024 were 4.9% higher than Hardee’s year-to-date (YTD) monthly visit average.
August’s LTO also drove up Hardee’s already-impressive loyalty rates. Between May and July 2024, 40.1% to 43.4% of visits came from customers who visited Hardee’s at least three times during the month, likely encouraged by Hardee’s top-ranking loyalty program. But in August, Hardee’s share of loyal visits jumped to 51.5%, highlighting just how receptive many diners are to eating out – as long as they feel they are getting their money’s worth.
McDonald’s launched its own limited-time offer in late June 2024, aimed at providing value to budget-conscious consumers. And the LTO – McDonald’s foray into this summer’s QSR value wars – was such a resounding success that the fast-food leader decided to extend the deal into December.
McDonald’s LTO drove foot traffic to restaurants nationwide. But a closer look at the chain’s regional captured markets shows that the offer resonated particularly well with “Young Urban Singles” – a segment group defined by Spatial.ai's PersonaLive dataset as young singles beginning their careers in trade jobs. McDonald's locations in states where the captured market shares of this demographic surpassed statewide averages by wider margins saw bigger visit boosts in July 2024 – and the correlation was a strong one.
For example, the share of “Young Urban Singles” in McDonald’s Massachusetts captured market was 56.0% higher than the Massachusetts statewide baseline – and the chain saw a 10.6% visit boost in July 2024, compared to the chain's statewide H1 2024 monthly average. But in Florida, where McDonald’s captured markets were over-indexed for “Young Urban Singles” by just 13% compared to the statewide average, foot traffic jumped in July 2024 by a relatively modest 7.3%.
These young, price-conscious consumers, who are receptive to spending their discretionary income on dining out, are not the sole driver of McDonald’s LTO foot traffic success. Still, the promotion’s outsize performance in areas where McDonald’s attracts higher-than-average shares of Young Urban Singles shows that the offering was well-tailored to meet the particular needs and preferences of this key demographic.
While QSR, fast-casual, and FSR chains have largely boosted foot traffic through deals and specials, reputation is another powerful way to attract diners. Restaurants that earn a coveted Michelin Star often see a surge in visits, as was the case for Causa – a Peruvian dining destination in Washington, D.C. The restaurant received its first Michelin Star in November 2023, a major milestone for Chef Carlos Delgado.
The Michelin Star elevated the restaurant's profile, drawing in affluent diners who prioritize exclusivity and are less sensitive to price increases. Since the award, Causa saw its share of the "Power Elite" segment group in its captured market increase from 24.7% to 26.6%. Diners were also more willing to travel for the opportunity to partake in the Causa experience: In the six months following the award, some 40.3% of visitors to the restaurant came from more than ten miles away, compared to just 30.3% in the six months prior.
These data points highlight the power of a Michelin Star to increase a restaurant’s draw and attract more affluent audiences – allowing it to raise prices without losing its core clientele. Wealthier diners often seek unique culinary experiences, where price is less of a concern, making these establishments more resilient to inflation than more venues that serve more price-sensitive customers.
Dining preferences continue to evolve as restaurants adapt to a rapidly changing culinary landscape. From the rise in fast-casual dining to the benefits of limited-time offers, the analyzed restaurant categories are determining how to best reach their target audiences. By staying up-to-date with what people are eating, these restaurant categories can hope to continue bringing customers through the door.
The COVID-19 pandemic – and the subsequent shift to remote work – has fundamentally redefined where and how people live and work, creating new opportunities for smaller cities to thrive.
But where are relocators going in 2024 – and what are they looking for? This post dives into the data for several CBSAs with populations ranging from 500K to 2.5 million that have seen positive net domestic migration over the past several years – where population inflow outpaces outflow. Who is moving to these hubs, and what is drawing them?
The past few years have seen a shift in where people are moving. While major metropolitan areas like New York still attract newcomers, smaller cities, which offer a balance of affordability, livability, and career opportunities, are becoming attractive alternatives for those looking to relocate.
Between July 2020 and July 2024, for example, the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX CBSA, saw net domestic migration of 3.6% – not surprising, given the city of Austin’s ranking among U.S. News and World Report’s top places to live in 2024-5. Raleigh-Cary, NC, which also made the list, experienced net population inflow of 2.6%. And other metro areas, including Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR (3.3%), Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA (1.4%), Oklahoma City, OK (1.1%), and Madison, WI (0.6%) have seen more domestic relocators moving in than out over the past four years.
All of these CBSAs have also continued to see positive net migration over the past 12 months – highlighting their continued appeal into 2024.
What is driving domestic migration to these hubs? While these metropolitan areas span various regions of the country, they share a common characteristic: They all attract residents coming, on average, from CBSAs with younger and less affluent populations.
Between July 2020 and July 2024, for example, relocators to high-income Raleigh, NC – where the median household income (HHI) stands at $84K – tended to hail from CBSAs with a significantly lower weighted median HHI ($66.9K). Similarly, those moving to Austin, TX – where the median HHI is $85.4K – tended to come from regions with a median HHI of $69.9K. This pattern suggests that these cities offer newcomers an aspirational leap in both career and financial prospects.
Moreover, most of these CBSAs are drawing residents with a younger weighted median age than that of their existing residents, reinforcing their appeal as destinations for those still establishing and growing their careers. Des Moines and Oklahoma City, in particular, saw the largest gaps between the median age of newcomers and that of the existing population.
Career opportunities and affordable housing are major drivers of migration, and data from Niche’s Neighborhood Grades suggests that these CBSAs attract newcomers due to their strong performance in both areas. All of the analyzed CBSAs had better "Jobs" and "Housing" grades compared to the regions from which people migrated. For example, Austin, Texas received the highest "Jobs" rating with an A-, while most new arrivals came from areas where the "Jobs" grade was a B.
While the other analyzed CBSAs showed smaller improvements in job ratings, the combination of improvements in both “Jobs” and “Housing” make them appealing destinations for those seeking better economic opportunities and affordability.
Young professionals may be more open than ever to living in smaller metro areas, offering opportunities for cities like Austin and Raleigh to thrive. And the demographic analysis of newcomers to these CBSAs underscores their appeal to individuals seeking job opportunities and upward mobility.
Will these CBSAs continue to attract newcomers and cement their status as vibrant, opportunity-rich hubs for young professionals? And how will this new mix of population impact these growing markets?
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