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In late 2022, we suggested that fitness clubs in a post-pandemic environment were better positioned to withstand a slower macroeconomic climate than in the past. This was due to lower monthly fee business models, increased workout frequency among consumers, a shift toward younger members, and reduced seasonality. With Planet Fitness reporting its Q3 2024 results this week and ten months of visitation data available for 2024, we decided to revisit that thesis—especially in light of the company’s decision to raise the monthly price of its Classic Card from $10 to $15 in late June.
In the third quarter, Planet Fitness posted systemwide same-club sales growth of 4.3% (4.5% growth in franchisee clubs and 3.4% growth in corporate-owned clubs). Approximately 50% of the Q3 2024 comp increase was driven by net member growth, with the remaining balance attributed to rate increases. Our data indicates that the decline in visitors has been relatively modest since the Classic Card price hike. Management corroborated this, noting they “expected a slight decline in membership in Q3 2024, which was more than offset by the rate improvement on the Classic Card and a higher Black Card mix.”
During the quarter, 63.1% of Planet Fitness members were Black Card members (paying $25 per month), up from 62.1% in the same period last year. Management noted that new members are increasingly opting for the higher-priced Black Card membership, likely due to the added value of extra amenities, including access to all club locations, unlimited guest privileges, unlimited use of massage chairs and tanning beds, and discounts on cooler drinks, compared to the base membership.
Planet Fitness’ visit-per-location trends further support our thesis that fitness clubs are more resilient to macroeconomic pressures than they were pre-pandemic. In 2019, Planet Fitness averaged nearly 92,000 visits per location in the first quarter, dropping to 68,000 in the fourth quarter—a 25% decrease. This year, Planet Fitness again began with 92,000 visits per location in the first quarter and is projected to close the year with 76,000-78,000 visits per location. This would represent a year-end decrease in the mid-teens, indicating a more stable membership base and lower churn rates than in past years.
Fitness clubs still face challenges in today’s consumer environment. For instance, Equinox-owned Blink Fitness filed for bankruptcy earlier this year, citing pandemic-related deferred rent payments and other factors in its filing. (On a related note, Planet Fitness reportedly made a bid for Blink Fitness this week.) Nonetheless, Planet Fitness' resilience underscores that fitness club unit economics have evolved over the past several years, potentially making them better equipped to handle diverse consumer environments.
While consumer confidence appears optimistic heading into the holidays, and businesses are feeling more assured now that the election is over, thrifting continues to benefit from tailwinds driven by last year's inflationary pressures, the shift toward sustainability, and Gen Z’s desire for unique items.
We analyzed year-over-year traffic for well-established chains like Goodwill and Salvation Army, as well as for smaller chains like Buffalo Exchange and Crossroads Trading Co. Among these, Savers Thrift Store has experienced the highest growth rate in recent months, with Goodwill also showing consistent increases compared to last year.
The thrift store footprint is quite strong nationwide, with a concentration of stores in the eastern half of the country and along the West Coast.
Thrifting is no longer just for lower-income households. In a sign of its upmarket appeal, over 1 in 10 of thrift store captured trade areas are now the "Upper Suburban Diverse Families" segment, and another 1 in 10 are from "Wealthy Suburban Families" according to PersonaLive customer segments. The chart below filters for visitors with a dwell time of at least 10 minutes, indicating that these segments aren’t merely dropping off donations—they’re sticking around to treasure hunt. The thrill of finding a hidden gem has been widely shared on social media platforms like TikTok, where one lucky shopper recently discovered a $6,000 couture wedding dress for the unbelievable price of $25 at Goodwill.
While Goodwill is undoubtedly the largest player in this field, with roughly ten times the visits of its nearest competitor, a substantial share of visits also goes to Plato’s Closet (with over 400 stores tracked by Placer), Salvation Army Stores (400+ tracked by Placer), and Savers Thrift Stores (100+ tracked by Placer). Interestingly, although Savers has just a quarter of the number of stores, its yearly visits nearly match those of Plato’s Closet and Salvation Army Stores during certain months of the year.
Plato’s Closet sees a notable spike in late July and early August, aligning with back-to-school shopping season. With its focus on teens and young adults and an emphasis on popular and fast-fashion brands, it’s no surprise that this chain resonates strongly with its youthful audience.
This past season, one of the major trends has been a love for all things '90s. Popular items include handkerchief hems, baby tees, crop tops, straight jeans, mom jeans, flared jeans (essentially anything but skinny jeans), and, of course, the essential graphic tee. Thrifters are on the hunt for that perfect vintage piece—something unique to wear to a concert or party and, most importantly, to showcase on social media.
Fashion is cyclical, and often, if you hold onto something long enough, it just might come back into style. Hoarders can rejoice, as new generations are now seeking out biker boots, pedal pushers, Fendi baguettes, and satin slip dresses. Today’s teens are also drawn to brands their parents might have worn, like surfer favorites Stussy, Roxy, and O’Neill. Miu Miu, a current favorite in the fashion world despite a slight slowdown in luxury, even sent board shorts down their runway. Miu Miu has consistently been on-trend over the past few years, from micro miniskirts to last month’s playful twist on athleisure with foot warmers and leg warmers.
Other notable ‘90s throwbacks include Hypercolor shirts—T-shirts that change color with body heat, like when a handprint is left behind. For the colder months, surf fashion is evolving into styles suited for cozy bonfire nights at the beach. "Shackets" (shirt jackets) in soft flannels and plaids are trending, with stores like Faherty and Marine Layer offering pieces reminiscent of the fashion seen in The O.C.
From a retail perspective, popular '90s and 2000s brands like Mango and True Religion are making a strong return to brick-and-mortar. Mango, a Spanish fast-fashion brand similar to Zara, first entered the U.S. in the 2000s but later withdrew in 2015. Now, it’s back with a U.S.-focused strategy, opening a flagship store at 711 Fifth Avenue in New York—formerly home to iconic brands like NBC, Columbia Pictures, and Coca-Cola. Mango plans to have over 40 stores in the U.S. by the end of 2024 and 500 global stores by 2026.
In the ‘90s, pop stars like Britney Spears and Christina Aguilera made low-rise jeans with the iconic True Religion horseshoe logo a staple. Now, True Religion has returned, with Megan Thee Stallion as a spokesperson. The brand saw strong performance in spring and summer, likely boosted by back-to-school shopping in August. Although year-over-year traffic dipped slightly in September and October, we anticipate a rise in traffic with the upcoming holiday season.
Every year towards the end of October, consumers head to the shops for costumes, spooky yard decorations, candy and Halloween supplies. At the same time, many national dining chains roll out Halloween-themed limited time offers (LTOs) to lure in revelers. So what was this year’s Halloween impact on retail and dining visits? We dove into the data to find out.
Halloween may not be Black Friday, but the ghostly holiday drives significant dining and retail visit spikes of its own. Comparing daily visit patterns during the week of Halloween to previous weeks’ averages reveals Halloween’s varied impact on the different brick-and-mortar sectors.
For most retail sectors – including grocery stores, superstores, discount & dollar stores, and hobbies, gift & craft stores – holiday visits peaked on October 30th, as consumers got their Halloween supplies before the holiday. Hobbies, gift & craft stores saw the biggest visit increases, with traffic on Monday, October 28th already up 20.7% compared to the average for the previous four Mondays, as patrons sought out the perfect costume piece or yard decoration. Meanwhile, liquor stores – where visits also increased the day before Halloween – got an even bigger boost on October 31st, likely thanks to party hosts and guests grabbing last minute refreshments ahead of the night’s festivities.
Unlike in the retail space, where visits increased prior to the holiday, the Halloween-driven dining visit spike was confined to October 31st. Dining visits on Halloween were up 5.4% compared to the previous four Thursdays’ average – impressive for a category not traditionally associated with Halloween spending. This spike was likely fueled by the many Halloween-themed LTOs across the category.
Indeed, many of the major dining chains that saw double-digit visit spikes on October 31st offered Halloween-related promotions. Insomnia Cookies gave away cookies and Krispy Kreme Doughnuts offered free donuts to customers who came in wearing costumes – and visits to the two chains jumped 60.4% and 45.4%, respectively, compared to the average of the previous four Thursdays. And the promise of discounts was almost as alluring as the promise of free stuff – Chipotle offered a deeply discounted entree to any Chipotle Rewards member coming in costume, leading to a 41.5% boost in Halloween foot traffic.
Full-service restaurants also got in on the Halloween action. Denny’s customers who dined on-site donning a costume received free Halloween pancakes, helping drive a 20.5% increase in Thursday visits on October 31st. IHOP, which offered a free “Scary Face Pancake” for kids 12 and under with the purchase of an adult entree, saw its visits rise 15.5% compared to its recent Thursday average. And Applebee’s “Dollar Zombie” cocktail – available throughout the month of October – may have contributed to the 14.4% Halloween visit increase from customers looking to consume the themed drink during the holiday.
Halloween prep often requires a trip to the store – so unlike dining chains, where traffic peaked on Halloween itself, most retail sectors received the largest holiday-driven boost on October 30th. Visits to Target, Walmart, Sam’s Club, BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Costco Wholesale were up on Wednesday, October 30th compared to a recent Wednesday average – but by October 31st, foot traffic was mostly back to normal (although Walmart visits were still slightly elevated).
Meanwhile, discount & dollar leaders Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Family Dollar experienced foot traffic jumps on both October 30th and October 31st – with the Halloween spikes at Dollar General and Family Dollar even surpassing the pre-Halloween boosts at those retailers. These visitation patterns indicate that consumers likely visit both superstores and dollar stores for pre-Holiday prep but are more likely to head to discount & dollar chains for last minute Halloween purchases.
While superstores and discount & dollar stores receive a significant share of Halloween-driven retail foot traffic, the biggest beneficiaries of the season appear to have been party supply stores – with Party City in the lead. Visits to the retailer began steadily increasing week-over-week in the beginning of September, with Wednesday, October 30th seeing a whopping 252.2% increase in visits compared to the average on the previous four Wednesdays.
Party City’s Halloween success indicates that, when it comes to special occasions, specialized retailers still play an important role in the brick-and-mortar retail landscape.
Halloween brought consumers out to stores and restaurants, highlighting an appetite for celebrating special occasions which may bode well for the upcoming holiday season. How will the rest of Q4’s retail milestones perform?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analyses to find out.
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Last year’s holiday shopping season was an impactful one, with many categories seeing record-breaking sales and visits. And perhaps no category benefits from Q4 peaks quite like department stores, which see major foot traffic spikes on Black Friday and in the run-up to Christmas.
So with Q4 2024 seemingly primed to be another strong season, we took a look at department store visitation patterns this year and during previous holiday seasons to see what might lie ahead for the category in the coming weeks.
The holiday shopping calendar often begins as early as October, as consumers start preparing for Halloween before shifting their focus to Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Christmas. This time of year tends to be one of the busiest for many retailers, as it encompasses a variety of shopping needs, including gifts and seasonal celebrations.
And one retail category that sees major visit increases every holiday season is department stores. Chains like Nordstrom, Macy’s, and Bloomingdale’s experience substantial spikes in visits throughout Q4 as shoppers flock to their locations to take advantage of sales and find gifts for their loved ones.
And though consumers’ holiday shopping behavior varies somewhat each year, analyzing weekly fluctuations in visits to department stores reveals some predictable patterns. Every year, visits to department stores see modest increases during major retail events like Valentine’s Day, Mother’s Day, and back-to-school shopping season – before surging during the week of Black Friday (week 47) and then again in the run-up to Christmas. During the week of last year’s Black Friday, for example, department store visits soared 65.2% above the 2023 weekly average – only to go even higher (122.8%) during the week before Christmas (week 51).
Nordstrom is one department store that seems poised to enjoy a particularly robust holiday shopping season this year. The chain, which operates more than 90 of its namesake stores, also has an off-price banner – Nordstrom Rack – with over 250 locations. And both brands have enjoyed stable visit growth since April 2024 – with quarterly YoY visits to Nordstrom and Nordstrom Rack elevated by 1.4% and 9.6%, respectively, in Q2 2024, and by 1.4% and 5.0%, respectively, in Q3 2024. By contrast, the wider department store category sustained consistent YoY visit gaps.
Drilling down deeper into weekly visit data shows that this positive trend continued into October. And while Nordstrom Rack – which is firmly in expansion mode – outperformed Nordstrom’s traditional stores through September, this trend reversed slightly in October, as the holiday season grew closer. With Black Friday just around the corner, both chains seem well positioned to continue driving visits to their respective stores.
Macy’s Inc., for its part, is doubling down on its “Bold New Chapter” – a turnaround strategy involving a significant trimming of the company’s traditional Macy’s portfolio and the addition of several Bloomingdale’s and small-format stores. In August, Macy’s announced its intention to increase to 55 the number of Macy’s locations slated for closure by the end of 2024. And though the plan’s implementation is still in early stages, foot traffic data suggests that both Macy’s and Bloomingdale’s are holding their own.
In Q2 and Q3 2024, Macy’s sustained minor YoY visit gaps – 2.8% and 3.5%, respectively – slightly outperforming the broader category. Meanwhile, Macy’s high-end Bloomingdale’s brand saw a YoY visit uptick of 1.9% in Q2, while Q3 visits remained flat compared to 2023. And given the huge monthly visit spikes both chains experience each year in November and December, Macy’s and Bloomingdale’s appear well positioned to once again experience a surge in foot traffic as the holiday season begins.
If previous years are any indication, department stores should be getting ready for significant foot traffic increases as the holidays quickly approach. Will improving consumer sentiment and cooling inflation lead to visit increases at department stores, or will consumers decide to take it easy this year?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven retail insights.
The holiday season is right around the corner, bringing with it some of the most impactful shopping periods of the year. We took a closer look at visit performance across major wholesale clubs and superstores – Target, Walmart, Sam’s Club, BJ’s Wholesale, and Costco – to see what their 2024 performance and past holiday season visit patterns can tell us about what to expect this Q4.
Warehouse clubs have been thriving in 2024, buoyed by price-conscious consumers eager to load up on inexpensive essentials. In Q3, quarterly visits to retail giants Sam’s Club and BJ’s Wholesale rose 5.2% and 5.9%, respectively. And Costco, holding its place ahead of the pack, saw a foot traffic increase of 7.2%. For all three chains, the robust visit growth continued into October, with visits up 3.6% to 5.9% YoY.
Meanwhile, Target and Walmart saw respective quarterly YoY foot traffic upticks of 1.0% and 0.9% in Q3 2024. In August – the height of the back-to-school shopping season – visits to both chains increased just over 3.0% YoY. And though foot traffic to the superstore behemoths slowed in September as the summer rush abated, Target saw its visit gap narrow once again in October, while Walmart experienced a slight 0.2% increase.
Warehouse retailers have been the clear foot traffic winners this year – but digging deeper into historical data suggests that it is Target that is primed to experience the busiest holiday season of the analyzed chains.
During the week of November 20th, 2023 – the week of Turkey Wednesday and Black Friday – visits to Target soared 18.9% compared to the chain’s 2023 weekly visit average, marking the biggest pre-Thanksgiving visit spike of any of the analyzed chains.
But Target’s real visit surge came during the week of December 18th – the week before Christmas, including the all-important Super Saturday – when visits to Target surged 87.3% above the chain’s 2023 weekly visit average. This was more than double the relative increase experienced by Walmart (39.6%), Sam’s Club (32.8%), BJ’s Wholesale (32.3%), or Costco (34.1%). And with recent visits to Target on par with – or slightly above – last year’s levels, the retail giant is likely poised to win the holidays once again.
Overall, Super Saturday was a bigger milestone for Target last year than Black Friday. (On the former, visits surged 166.1% compared to a 2023 daily average, while on the latter they rose 135.3%.) But digging deeper into the data reveals significant regional differences in Target’s performance on the two major shopping days.
In some parts of the country – including several midwestern, south central, and nearby states where Black Friday has special resonance – the day after Thanksgiving drew bigger visit spikes than Super Saturday. Some markets in particular saw outsized Black Friday visit surges, including West Virginia (348.6%), Kentucky (232.3%), and Indiana (227.4%). Other markets, such as California (74.6%) and Colorado (89.5%), experienced more moderate – though still substantial – Black Friday jumps.
In contrast, visits to Target on Super Saturday were more evenly distributed across the country, with several western and sunbelt states recording substantial visit increases – including New Mexico, which saw a 200.6% jump in visits to Target on December 23, 2023 compared to the 2023 daily visit average.
With solid Q3s under their belts, Target, Walmart, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s Wholesale Club are all well-positioned to enjoy a robust holiday season this year. Will the retail giants deliver?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analyses to find out.
New York City is one of the world’s leading commercial centers – and Manhattan, home to some of the nation's most prominent corporations, is at its epicenter. Manhattan’s substantial in-office workforce has helped make New York a post-pandemic office recovery leader, outpacing most other major U.S. hubs. And the plethora of healthcare, service, and other on-site workers that keep the island humming along also contribute to its thriving employment landscape.
Using the latest location analytics, this report examines the shifting dynamics of the many on-site workers employed in Manhattan and the up-and-coming Hudson Yards neighborhood. Where does today’s Manhattan workforce come from? How often do on-site employees visit Hudson Yards? And how has the share of young professionals across Manhattan’s different districts shifted since the pandemic?
Read on to find out.
The rise in work-from-home (WFH) trends during the pandemic and the persistence of hybrid work have changed the face of commuting in Manhattan.
In Q2 2019, nearly 60% of employee visits to Manhattan originated off the island. But in Q2 2021, that share fell to just 43.9% – likely due to many commuters avoiding public transportation and practicing social distancing during COVID.
Since Q2 2022, however, the share of employee visits to Manhattan from outside the borough has rebounded – steadily approaching, but not yet reaching, pre-pandemic levels. By Q2 2024, 54.7% of employee visits to Manhattan originated from elsewhere – likely a reflection of the Big Apple’s accelerated RTO that is drawing in-office workers back into the city.
Unsurprisingly, some nearby boroughs – including Queens and the Bronx – have seen their share of Manhattan worker visits bounce back to what they were in 2019, while further-away areas of New York and New Jersey continue to lag behind. But Q2 2024 also saw an increase in the share of Manhattan workers commuting from other states – both compared to 2023 and compared to 2019 – perhaps reflecting the rise of super commuting.
Commuting into Manhattan is on the rise – but how often are employees making the trip? Diving into the data for employees based in Hudson Yards – Manhattan’s newest retail, office, and residential hub, which was officially opened to the public in March 2019 – reveals that the local workforce favors fewer in-person work days than in the past.
In August 2019, before the pandemic, 60.2% of Hudson Yards-based employees visited the neighborhood at least fifteen times. But by August 2021, the neighborhood’s share of near-full-time on-site workers had begun to drop – and it has declined ever since. In August 2024, only 22.6% of local workers visited the neighborhood 15+ times throughout the month. Meanwhile, the share of Hudson Yards-based employees making an appearance between five and nine times during the month emerged as the most common visit frequency by August 2022 – and has continued to increase since. In August 2024, 25.0% of employees visited the neighborhood less than five times a month, 32.5% visited between five and nine times, and 19.2% visited between 10 and 14 times.
Like other workers throughout Manhattan, Hudson Yards employees seem to have fully embraced the new hybrid normal – coming into the office between one and four times a week.
But not all employment centers in the Hudson Yards neighborhood see the same patterns of on-site work. Some of the newest office buildings in the area appear to attract employees more frequently and from further away than other properties.
Of the Hudson Yards properties analyzed, Two Manhattan West, which was completed this year, attracted the largest share of frequent, long-distance commuters in August 2024 (15.3%) – defined as employees visiting 10+ times per month from at least 30 miles away. And The Spiral, which opened last year, drew the second-largest share of such on-site workers (12.3%).
Employees in these skyscrapers may prioritize in-person work – or have been encouraged by their employers to return to the office – more than their counterparts in other Hudson Yards buildings. Employees may also choose to come in more frequently to enjoy these properties’ newer and more advanced amenities. And service and shift workers at these properties may also be coming in more frequently to support the buildings’ elevated occupancy.
Diving deeper into the segmentation of on-site employees in the Hudson Yards district provides further insight into this unique on-site workforce.
Analysis of POIs corresponding to several commercial and office hubs in the borough reveals that between August 2019 and August 2024, Hudson Yards’ captured market had the fastest-growing share of employees belonging to STI: Landscape's “Apprentices” segment, which encompasses young, highly-paid professionals in urban settings.
Companies looking to attract young talent have already noticed that these young professionals are receptive to Hudson Yards’ vibrant atmosphere and collaborative spaces, and describe this as a key factor in their choice to lease local offices.
Manhattan is a bastion of commerce, and its strong on-site workforce has helped lead the nation’s post-pandemic office recovery. But the dynamics of the many Manhattan-based workers continues to shift. And as new commercial and residential hubs emerge on the island, workplace trends and the characteristics of employees are almost certain to evolve with them.
The restaurant space has experienced its fair share of challenges in recent years – from pandemic-related closures to rising labor and ingredient costs. Despite these hurdles, the category is holding its own, with total 2024 spending projected to reach $1.1 trillion by the end of the year.
And an analysis of year-over-year (YoY) visitation trends to restaurants nationwide shows that consumers are frequenting dining establishments in growing numbers – despite food-away-from-home prices that remain stubbornly high.
Overall, monthly visits to restaurants were up nearly every month this year compared to the equivalent periods of 2023. Only in January, when inclement weather kept many consumers at home, did restaurants see a significant YoY drop. Throughout the rest of the analyzed period, YoY visits either held steady or grew – showing that Americans are finding room in their budgets to treat themselves to tasty, hassle-free meals.
Still, costs remain elevated and dining preferences have shifted, with consumers prioritizing value and convenience – and restaurants across segments are looking for ways to meet these changing needs. This white paper dives into the data to explore the trends impacting quick-service restaurants (QSR), full-service restaurants (FSR), and fast-casual dining venues – and strategies all three categories are using to stay ahead of the pack.
Overall, the dining sector has performed well in 2024, but a closer look at specific segments within the industry shows that fast-casual restaurants are outperforming both QSR and FSR chains.
Between January and August 2024, visits to fast-casual establishments were up 3.3% YoY, while QSR visits grew by just 0.7%, and FSR visits fell by 0.3% YoY. As eating out becomes more expensive, consumers are gravitating toward dining options that offer better perceived value without compromising on quality. Fast-casual chains, which balance affordability with higher-quality ingredients and experiences, have increasingly become the go-to choice for value-conscious diners.
Fast-casual restaurants also tend to attract a higher-income demographic. Between January and August 2024, fast-casual restaurants drew visitors from Census Block Groups (CBGs) with a weighted median household income of $78.2K – higher than the nationwide median of $76.1K. (The CBGs feeding visits to these restaurants, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each CBG, are collectively referred to as their captured market).
Perhaps unsurprisingly, quick-service restaurants drew visitors from much less affluent areas. But interestingly, despite their pricier offerings, full-service restaurants also drew visitors from CBGs with a median HHI below the nationwide baseline. While fast-casual restaurants likely attract office-goers and other routine diners that can afford to eat out on a more regular basis, FSR chains may serve as special occasion destinations for those with more moderate means.
Though QSR, FSR, and fast-casual spots all seek to provide strong value propositions, dining chains across segments have been forced to raise prices over the past year to offset rising food and labor costs. This next section takes a look at several chains that have succeeded in raising prices without sacrificing visit growth – to explore some of the strategies that have enabled them to thrive.
The fast-casual restaurant space attracts diners that are on the wealthier side – but some establishments cater to even higher earners. One chain of note is NYC-based burger chain Shake Shack, which features a captured market median HHI of $94.3K. In comparison, the typical fast-casual diner comes from areas with a median HHI of $78.2K.
Shake Shack emphasizes high-quality ingredients and prices its offerings accordingly. The chain, which has been expanding its footprint, strategically places its locations in affluent, upscale, and high-traffic neighborhoods – driving foot traffic that consistently surpasses other fast-casual chains. And this elevated foot traffic has continued to impress, even as Shake Shack has raised its prices by 2.5% over the past year.
Steakhouse chain Texas Roadhouse has enjoyed a positive few years, weathering the pandemic with aplomb before moving into an expansion phase. And this year, the chain ranked in the top five for service, food quality, and overall experience by the 2024 Datassential Top 500 Restaurant Chain.
Like Shake Shack, Texas Roadhouse has raised its prices over the past year – three times – while maintaining impressive visit metrics. Between January and August 2024, foot traffic to the steakhouse grew by 9.7% YoY, outpacing visits to the overall FSR segment by wide margins.
This foot traffic growth is fueled not only by expansion but also by the chain's ability to draw traffic during quieter dayparts like weekday afternoons, while at the same time capitalizing on high-traffic times like weekends. Some 27.7% of weekday visits to Texas Roadhouse take place between 3:00 PM and 6:00 PM – compared to just 18.9% for the broader FSR segment – thanks to the chain’s happy hour offerings early dining specials. And 43.3% of visits to the popular steakhouse take place on Saturdays and Sundays, when many diners are increasingly choosing to splurge on restaurant meals, compared to 38.4% for the wider category.
Though rising costs have been on everybody’s minds, summer 2024 may be best remembered as the summer of value – with many quick-service restaurants seeking to counter higher prices by embracing Limited-Time Offers (LTOs). These LTOs offered diners the opportunity to save at the register and get more bang for their buck – while boosting visits at QSR chains across the country.
Limited time offers such as discounted meals and combo offers can encourage frequent visits, and Hardee’s $5.99 "Original Bag" combo, launched in August 2024, did just that. The combo allowed diners to mix and match popular items like the Double Cheeseburger and Hand-Breaded Chicken Tender Wraps, offering both variety and affordability. And visits to the chain during the month of August 2024 were 4.9% higher than Hardee’s year-to-date (YTD) monthly visit average.
August’s LTO also drove up Hardee’s already-impressive loyalty rates. Between May and July 2024, 40.1% to 43.4% of visits came from customers who visited Hardee’s at least three times during the month, likely encouraged by Hardee’s top-ranking loyalty program. But in August, Hardee’s share of loyal visits jumped to 51.5%, highlighting just how receptive many diners are to eating out – as long as they feel they are getting their money’s worth.
McDonald’s launched its own limited-time offer in late June 2024, aimed at providing value to budget-conscious consumers. And the LTO – McDonald’s foray into this summer’s QSR value wars – was such a resounding success that the fast-food leader decided to extend the deal into December.
McDonald’s LTO drove foot traffic to restaurants nationwide. But a closer look at the chain’s regional captured markets shows that the offer resonated particularly well with “Young Urban Singles” – a segment group defined by Spatial.ai's PersonaLive dataset as young singles beginning their careers in trade jobs. McDonald's locations in states where the captured market shares of this demographic surpassed statewide averages by wider margins saw bigger visit boosts in July 2024 – and the correlation was a strong one.
For example, the share of “Young Urban Singles” in McDonald’s Massachusetts captured market was 56.0% higher than the Massachusetts statewide baseline – and the chain saw a 10.6% visit boost in July 2024, compared to the chain's statewide H1 2024 monthly average. But in Florida, where McDonald’s captured markets were over-indexed for “Young Urban Singles” by just 13% compared to the statewide average, foot traffic jumped in July 2024 by a relatively modest 7.3%.
These young, price-conscious consumers, who are receptive to spending their discretionary income on dining out, are not the sole driver of McDonald’s LTO foot traffic success. Still, the promotion’s outsize performance in areas where McDonald’s attracts higher-than-average shares of Young Urban Singles shows that the offering was well-tailored to meet the particular needs and preferences of this key demographic.
While QSR, fast-casual, and FSR chains have largely boosted foot traffic through deals and specials, reputation is another powerful way to attract diners. Restaurants that earn a coveted Michelin Star often see a surge in visits, as was the case for Causa – a Peruvian dining destination in Washington, D.C. The restaurant received its first Michelin Star in November 2023, a major milestone for Chef Carlos Delgado.
The Michelin Star elevated the restaurant's profile, drawing in affluent diners who prioritize exclusivity and are less sensitive to price increases. Since the award, Causa saw its share of the "Power Elite" segment group in its captured market increase from 24.7% to 26.6%. Diners were also more willing to travel for the opportunity to partake in the Causa experience: In the six months following the award, some 40.3% of visitors to the restaurant came from more than ten miles away, compared to just 30.3% in the six months prior.
These data points highlight the power of a Michelin Star to increase a restaurant’s draw and attract more affluent audiences – allowing it to raise prices without losing its core clientele. Wealthier diners often seek unique culinary experiences, where price is less of a concern, making these establishments more resilient to inflation than more venues that serve more price-sensitive customers.
Dining preferences continue to evolve as restaurants adapt to a rapidly changing culinary landscape. From the rise in fast-casual dining to the benefits of limited-time offers, the analyzed restaurant categories are determining how to best reach their target audiences. By staying up-to-date with what people are eating, these restaurant categories can hope to continue bringing customers through the door.
The COVID-19 pandemic – and the subsequent shift to remote work – has fundamentally redefined where and how people live and work, creating new opportunities for smaller cities to thrive.
But where are relocators going in 2024 – and what are they looking for? This post dives into the data for several CBSAs with populations ranging from 500K to 2.5 million that have seen positive net domestic migration over the past several years – where population inflow outpaces outflow. Who is moving to these hubs, and what is drawing them?
The past few years have seen a shift in where people are moving. While major metropolitan areas like New York still attract newcomers, smaller cities, which offer a balance of affordability, livability, and career opportunities, are becoming attractive alternatives for those looking to relocate.
Between July 2020 and July 2024, for example, the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX CBSA, saw net domestic migration of 3.6% – not surprising, given the city of Austin’s ranking among U.S. News and World Report’s top places to live in 2024-5. Raleigh-Cary, NC, which also made the list, experienced net population inflow of 2.6%. And other metro areas, including Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR (3.3%), Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA (1.4%), Oklahoma City, OK (1.1%), and Madison, WI (0.6%) have seen more domestic relocators moving in than out over the past four years.
All of these CBSAs have also continued to see positive net migration over the past 12 months – highlighting their continued appeal into 2024.
What is driving domestic migration to these hubs? While these metropolitan areas span various regions of the country, they share a common characteristic: They all attract residents coming, on average, from CBSAs with younger and less affluent populations.
Between July 2020 and July 2024, for example, relocators to high-income Raleigh, NC – where the median household income (HHI) stands at $84K – tended to hail from CBSAs with a significantly lower weighted median HHI ($66.9K). Similarly, those moving to Austin, TX – where the median HHI is $85.4K – tended to come from regions with a median HHI of $69.9K. This pattern suggests that these cities offer newcomers an aspirational leap in both career and financial prospects.
Moreover, most of these CBSAs are drawing residents with a younger weighted median age than that of their existing residents, reinforcing their appeal as destinations for those still establishing and growing their careers. Des Moines and Oklahoma City, in particular, saw the largest gaps between the median age of newcomers and that of the existing population.
Career opportunities and affordable housing are major drivers of migration, and data from Niche’s Neighborhood Grades suggests that these CBSAs attract newcomers due to their strong performance in both areas. All of the analyzed CBSAs had better "Jobs" and "Housing" grades compared to the regions from which people migrated. For example, Austin, Texas received the highest "Jobs" rating with an A-, while most new arrivals came from areas where the "Jobs" grade was a B.
While the other analyzed CBSAs showed smaller improvements in job ratings, the combination of improvements in both “Jobs” and “Housing” make them appealing destinations for those seeking better economic opportunities and affordability.
Young professionals may be more open than ever to living in smaller metro areas, offering opportunities for cities like Austin and Raleigh to thrive. And the demographic analysis of newcomers to these CBSAs underscores their appeal to individuals seeking job opportunities and upward mobility.
Will these CBSAs continue to attract newcomers and cement their status as vibrant, opportunity-rich hubs for young professionals? And how will this new mix of population impact these growing markets?
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