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The dining segment has faced no shortage of challenges in recent years. Rising food and labor costs, inflation, and shifting consumer habits have put pressure on many chains – but some are thriving.
We take a look at three dining chains – local favorites that have been expanding in recent years – to see what lies behind their surprising success.
Visits to the overall fast-casual segment remained flat year over year (YoY) in Q1 2025, highlighting the challenging state of the dining category. But three expanding local restaurant chains – Pura Vida Miami, Mendocino Farms, and P. Terry’s Burger Stand – all saw their foot traffic grow significantly in the same period.
Florida-based Pura Vida Miami, a cafe that specializes in health and wellness, saw the biggest jump in foot traffic, with visits growing by 58.5% in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024. The eatery, which opened its first location in 2012, and now boasts 35 locations across South Florida and New York has no plans to slow its rapid expansion. And fittingly, the average number of visits to each location of the chain also increased by 11.9% YoY – highlighting that its new venues are meeting strong demand.
California-based fast-casual restaurant Mendocino Farms also places a strong emphasis on healthy dining. Founded in 2005, the chain has grown to 75 locations – most of them in California – and continues to thrive, with visits up by 23.0% in Q1 2025 and visits per location rising by 12.9%. Austin, Texas favorite P. Terry’s Burger Stand, which opened in 2005, is also thriving. The chain grew its presence over the past year, adding new locations in Houston – and like the other analyzed brands, saw increases in both overall visits and average visits per location.
Location analytics show that each of the chains is finding success in its own way. Diving into hourly visitation patterns for Pura Vida Miami, for example, reveals a subtle but notable shift in its peak visit times, suggesting that as the chain expands, it is successfully positioning itself as a breakfast and lunchtime destination. Between Q1 2025 and Q1 2024, the share of visitors arriving between 7:00 and 11:00 AM, and 12:00 - 4:00 PM increased slightly, while the proportion of evening visitors declined.
To capitalize on this trend, Pura Vida could consider further developing its morning menu or, conversely, exploring opportunities to enhance its dinner menu to attract a cohort that seeks health-centric dinner items.
Mendocino Farms, for its part, appears to be deriving some of its success from the affluence of its customer base. The chain, which boasts over 60 of its 75 locations in California, has also established a presence in Washington, Texas, and Colorado. Mendocino Farms will be opening around 15 new locations throughout 2025, and will begin its eastward march, opening a location in Chicago in the coming months.
And a look at the chains’ two largest markets, California and Texas, shows that visitors to the Mendocino Farms in Q1 2025 were more likely to come from high-income trade areas, likely insulating them from the overall challenges facing the wider dining segment. For example, the median HHI of visitors to Mendocino Farms in California was $123.8K, compared to the California average of $96.7K. And in Texas, its second-largest market, visitors originated from trade areas with a median HHI of $105.8K – significantly higher than both the Texas ($76.5K) and nationwide ($78.9K) medians.
P. Terry’s Burger Stand is a Texas cult favorite. The chain, which has grown from a family-owned burger stand in 2005 to 34 locations in the Austin area is thriving, and recently began expanding into other cities in Texas.
Over the years, the chain has become something of a weekend destination, with 30.4% of its visitors coming on the weekends in Q1 2025 – up from 28.1% in Q1 2024. This suggests that, as the chain grows, more customers are incorporating P. Terry's into their weekend routines, likely drawn by its blend of quality and accessible price point. This increasing weekend popularity, coupled with its strategic expansion into new markets like Houston, bodes well for P. Terry's continued growth across Texas.
The three dining chains are proving that, even in challenging times, there’s plenty of space for local favorites to flourish.
Will these chains continue to thrive in the second half of 2025?
Visit Placer.ai/anchor to stay up-to-date with the latest data driving dining stores.
Imagine being able to literally pop downstairs for your favorite coffee shop, boutique, or to pick up a novel from your local bookstore. At the Arcade mixed-use shopping center in Providence, this is not a pipe dream, but a reality. Originally built in 1828, this historic building was conceived as a social and commercial hub filled with wares from merchants and artisans where customers could shop even in inclement weather. Nearly 200 years later, the purpose remains the same. However, as suburban shopping centers proliferated in the last few decades, Arcade struggled with its foot traffic.
In 2008, it closed for renovations and reopened in 2013, transformed into a mixed-use commercial and residential micro-loft space. The top two floors consist of 48 micro-lofts with 225-300 square feet of living space. None have stoves or ovens, perfect for those Carrie Bradshaw type occupants who would otherwise store sweaters in their ovens. Those coming from densely packed urban areas like New York or Tokyo would appreciate the minimalism and efficiency of these lofts. Upon opening, there was a waiting list of 4,000, making obtaining a spot even more competitive than getting into an elite university.
The Arcade Providence still operates retail and dining spaces on the ground floor, including local favorites like a Lovecraft-themed bookstore, or Lobanton, an Asian-fusion sandwich shop. The Greek Revival-themed mall also hosts New Harvest Coffee & Spirits and restaurants like Rogue Island, all of which attract a steady stream of visitors.
How has the shift to mixed-use impacted the psychographic composition of the venue's visitor base? We compared the segments visiting Arcade Providence in 2018 vs 2024 and found some interesting shifts that have occurred in the past six years. Visitors in 2018 tended to come from the Young Professional (26%) or Educated Urbanites (18%) segments (per the Spatial.ai PersonaLive classifications). However, six years later, the share of those segments in the Arcade's visitor base have declined, while the percentages of visitors from the Upper Suburban Diverse Families (from 10% to 13%) and Ultra Wealthy Families (from 5% to 11%) segments have increased.
The change in visitor demographics is likely driven – at least in part – by the increase in True Trade Area since the Arcade's shift to mixed-use. The 2018 trade area (in blue) covered only 29 sq miles, whereas the 2024 trade area (in green) has expanded to 65 miles.
The Arcade is located in downtown Providence, so this increase in trade area size suggests that the venue is now attracting visitors from more suburban areas beyond the city center, which typically include more family-oriented and wealthier zones.
This nearly 200-year old shopping center exhibits our ingrained human tendency to congregate, conduct commerce, and socialize. It also shows the constant evolution of how we live, work, and play.
For more data-driven CRE insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Following a strong April when nationwide office visits rose 4.8% year-over-year, visits fell slightly in May 2025 as traffic fell 1.0% compared to May 2024. On a year-over-six-year basis (Yo6Y, or compared to 2019), visits were down 37.2% – a steep drop from April's 30.1% Yo6Y visit gap.
The weaker May numbers may be partially driven by a calendar shift, as May 2025 had an extra Saturday, and therefore one less workday, than either May 2024 or May 2019. Americans may have also chosen to take more PTO around Memorial Day this year – according to the TSA, airports were busier on the Friday before Memorial Day 2025 than they were on Friday, May 24th 2024.
But the muted May office data also highlights the persistent popularity of hybrid and remote work. According to Gallup, over half of U.S. employees work hybrid while over a quarter are fully remote – and the recent May data suggests that these work arrangements are proving difficult to change.
Diving into the market-level data reveals that New York City, NY and Miami, FL continue to lead the pack, with office visits down 18.4% and 19.6%, respectively, compared to 2019. But both cities also saw slight declines compared to May 2024's office numbers – highlighting once again the persistence of the new work arrangements and the overall slowing of the office recovery.
Southern hubs – specifically Atlanta, GA, Dallas, TX, and Houston, TX – followed New York and Miami, with visits down 32.1%, 35.5%, and 36.2% compared to May 2019. Dallas and Houston also saw their office visits increase compared to 2024, with Houston specifically seeing an 8.3% increase in YoY office visits, perhaps aided by corporate relocations to the two cities. Georgia and Texas also saw their populations increase in recent years, which may be contributing to these cities' office performance.
Meanwhile, the Yo6Y office visit gap in Washington, D.C., Boston, MA, Los Angeles, CA, Chicago, IL, Denver, CO, and San Francisco, CA ranged from 40.1% to 50.6%, with all the cities except for Boston also experiencing YoY declines.
The May 2025 Placer.ai Office Index highlights a persistent plateau in office recovery. While some regional bright spots exist, the return to pre-pandemic office traffic remains elusive, largely due to the enduring popularity of hybrid and remote work models.
For more data-driven commercial real estate insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Darden Restaurants, which counts Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse among its portfolio of leading full-service restaurant (FSR) chains, has been on a solid growth trajectory: In March 2025, the company reported a 6.2% year-over-year (YoY) quarterly sales increase, fueled by expansion and a 0.7% bump in same-restaurant sales.
With Darden set to report again in June 2025, we dove into the data to see how the full-service restaurant (FSR) leader has performed so far this year.
In Q1 2025, overall visits to Darden Restaurants’ brand portfolio outpaced average visits per location, reflecting the company’s expansion in 2024, including the acquisition of Chuy’s. Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse, both of which also increased their footprints over the past year, followed similar patterns – with LongHorn Steakhouse enjoying a modest 0.5% uptick in overall foot traffic.
A closer look at monthly visitation data reveals a more nuanced – and positive – picture.
Between January and May 2025, Darden recorded nearly uniform monthly YoY overall visit growth, with only February slipping into the red due to harsh weather and a leap-year comparison. And in April and May, average visits per location rose YoY for both the portfolio and its leading brands – a testament to Darden’s ongoing strength.
Unsurprisingly, LongHorn Steakhouse continued to outperform, drawing customers with the promise of a reasonably priced cut of quality meat – a particularly enticing value proposition as beef prices continue to rise.
Darden’s performance on Mother’s Day, an important milestone for the company, further underscores its positive trajectory.
Olive Garden is a major Mother’s Day destination, and its performance this year didn’t disappoint. May 11th, 2025 was the Italian-American cuisine giant’s single busiest day of the past 12 months, with foot traffic soaring 152.9% compared to an average day and 101.8% compared to an average Sunday. LongHorn Steakhouse experienced a similar surge, and both chains topped their Mother’s Day traffic from last year – showcasing their ability to capitalize on this crucial occasion.
Like Texas Roadhouse, LongHorn Steakhouse is also a major Father’s Day draw. And given its strong performance this year, the chain will certainly be one to watch when June 15th rolls around.
Darden’s recent results show resilience and a clear knack for meeting consumer demand, even in a challenging market. How will the company continue to fare as the year progresses?
Follow Placer.ai's data-driven dining analyses to find out.
Burger King is the latest quick-service restaurant (QSR) brand to jump on the LTO bandwagon, introducing a limited-time menu inspired by the much-anticipated How to Train Your Dragon movie. And though the film isn’t set to hit theaters until June 13th, the offering – which launched on Tuesday, May 27th – already appears to be boosting foot traffic.
On the day of the launch, visits to Burger King rose 6.2% above the chain’s year-to-date (YTD) Tuesday average. Momentum continued to build throughout the week, with May 30th seeing an 11.1% visit bump compared to an average Friday – and emerging as Burger King’s busiest day of the year so far. Year over year, too, Burger King registered increased traffic during the week of the launch – a trend that could intensify once the movie premieres.
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Mall visits increased across all formats in May 2025 as consumer confidence improved. Indoor malls posted the largest gains with a 6.7% year-over-year (YoY) increase in visits, followed by open-air shopping centers (+5.0%) and outlet malls (+3.9%).
The rise in mall visits for a second month in a row suggests that April's positive YoY visit trends were more than a temporary pull-forward of consumer demand in response to tariff uncertainty. Instead, the latest data indicates that the retail sector remains resilient despite the broader economic headwinds.
Some of May's strength was likely also driven by the sector's strong showing over Memorial Day weekend. Indoor malls and open-air shopping centers saw their YoY visits spike on the Saturday and Sunday before the holiday – in contrast with the wider brick-and-mortar retail industry that saw relatively flat YoY visit numbers over the long weekend.
This suggests that shopping centers continue to operate as more than just retail destinations. And malls' entertainment offerings – specifically movie theaters, which posted impressive Memorial Day box office numbers – likely helped boost traffic despite the more muted Memorial Day performance of other discretionary categories.
Diving into the demographic breakdown of mall visitors in May 2025 reveals the median household income (HHI) fell slightly for audiences across all mall formats – while visitation trends show an increase in average visit duration.
This suggests that malls' current resilience is not due to their effective appeal to higher-income shoppers during times of economic uncertainty, as the median HHI in their trade areas is on par with (and even slightly lower than) May 2024 levels. Instead, the longer visit duration suggests that top-tier malls are succeeding by positioning themselves as social hubs and experiential destinations – using their diverse tenant base to keep visits up also during times of reduced retail activity.
Malls are continuing to adapt to evolving consumer behaviors, with top-tier malls leaning into their role as multifaceted social and entertainment venues – positioning them well for continued growth and sustained relevance in a dynamic economic landscape.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
New York City is one of the world’s leading commercial centers – and Manhattan, home to some of the nation's most prominent corporations, is at its epicenter. Manhattan’s substantial in-office workforce has helped make New York a post-pandemic office recovery leader, outpacing most other major U.S. hubs. And the plethora of healthcare, service, and other on-site workers that keep the island humming along also contribute to its thriving employment landscape.
Using the latest location analytics, this report examines the shifting dynamics of the many on-site workers employed in Manhattan and the up-and-coming Hudson Yards neighborhood. Where does today’s Manhattan workforce come from? How often do on-site employees visit Hudson Yards? And how has the share of young professionals across Manhattan’s different districts shifted since the pandemic?
Read on to find out.
The rise in work-from-home (WFH) trends during the pandemic and the persistence of hybrid work have changed the face of commuting in Manhattan.
In Q2 2019, nearly 60% of employee visits to Manhattan originated off the island. But in Q2 2021, that share fell to just 43.9% – likely due to many commuters avoiding public transportation and practicing social distancing during COVID.
Since Q2 2022, however, the share of employee visits to Manhattan from outside the borough has rebounded – steadily approaching, but not yet reaching, pre-pandemic levels. By Q2 2024, 54.7% of employee visits to Manhattan originated from elsewhere – likely a reflection of the Big Apple’s accelerated RTO that is drawing in-office workers back into the city.
Unsurprisingly, some nearby boroughs – including Queens and the Bronx – have seen their share of Manhattan worker visits bounce back to what they were in 2019, while further-away areas of New York and New Jersey continue to lag behind. But Q2 2024 also saw an increase in the share of Manhattan workers commuting from other states – both compared to 2023 and compared to 2019 – perhaps reflecting the rise of super commuting.
Commuting into Manhattan is on the rise – but how often are employees making the trip? Diving into the data for employees based in Hudson Yards – Manhattan’s newest retail, office, and residential hub, which was officially opened to the public in March 2019 – reveals that the local workforce favors fewer in-person work days than in the past.
In August 2019, before the pandemic, 60.2% of Hudson Yards-based employees visited the neighborhood at least fifteen times. But by August 2021, the neighborhood’s share of near-full-time on-site workers had begun to drop – and it has declined ever since. In August 2024, only 22.6% of local workers visited the neighborhood 15+ times throughout the month. Meanwhile, the share of Hudson Yards-based employees making an appearance between five and nine times during the month emerged as the most common visit frequency by August 2022 – and has continued to increase since. In August 2024, 25.0% of employees visited the neighborhood less than five times a month, 32.5% visited between five and nine times, and 19.2% visited between 10 and 14 times.
Like other workers throughout Manhattan, Hudson Yards employees seem to have fully embraced the new hybrid normal – coming into the office between one and four times a week.
But not all employment centers in the Hudson Yards neighborhood see the same patterns of on-site work. Some of the newest office buildings in the area appear to attract employees more frequently and from further away than other properties.
Of the Hudson Yards properties analyzed, Two Manhattan West, which was completed this year, attracted the largest share of frequent, long-distance commuters in August 2024 (15.3%) – defined as employees visiting 10+ times per month from at least 30 miles away. And The Spiral, which opened last year, drew the second-largest share of such on-site workers (12.3%).
Employees in these skyscrapers may prioritize in-person work – or have been encouraged by their employers to return to the office – more than their counterparts in other Hudson Yards buildings. Employees may also choose to come in more frequently to enjoy these properties’ newer and more advanced amenities. And service and shift workers at these properties may also be coming in more frequently to support the buildings’ elevated occupancy.
Diving deeper into the segmentation of on-site employees in the Hudson Yards district provides further insight into this unique on-site workforce.
Analysis of POIs corresponding to several commercial and office hubs in the borough reveals that between August 2019 and August 2024, Hudson Yards’ captured market had the fastest-growing share of employees belonging to STI: Landscape's “Apprentices” segment, which encompasses young, highly-paid professionals in urban settings.
Companies looking to attract young talent have already noticed that these young professionals are receptive to Hudson Yards’ vibrant atmosphere and collaborative spaces, and describe this as a key factor in their choice to lease local offices.
Manhattan is a bastion of commerce, and its strong on-site workforce has helped lead the nation’s post-pandemic office recovery. But the dynamics of the many Manhattan-based workers continues to shift. And as new commercial and residential hubs emerge on the island, workplace trends and the characteristics of employees are almost certain to evolve with them.
The restaurant space has experienced its fair share of challenges in recent years – from pandemic-related closures to rising labor and ingredient costs. Despite these hurdles, the category is holding its own, with total 2024 spending projected to reach $1.1 trillion by the end of the year.
And an analysis of year-over-year (YoY) visitation trends to restaurants nationwide shows that consumers are frequenting dining establishments in growing numbers – despite food-away-from-home prices that remain stubbornly high.
Overall, monthly visits to restaurants were up nearly every month this year compared to the equivalent periods of 2023. Only in January, when inclement weather kept many consumers at home, did restaurants see a significant YoY drop. Throughout the rest of the analyzed period, YoY visits either held steady or grew – showing that Americans are finding room in their budgets to treat themselves to tasty, hassle-free meals.
Still, costs remain elevated and dining preferences have shifted, with consumers prioritizing value and convenience – and restaurants across segments are looking for ways to meet these changing needs. This white paper dives into the data to explore the trends impacting quick-service restaurants (QSR), full-service restaurants (FSR), and fast-casual dining venues – and strategies all three categories are using to stay ahead of the pack.
Overall, the dining sector has performed well in 2024, but a closer look at specific segments within the industry shows that fast-casual restaurants are outperforming both QSR and FSR chains.
Between January and August 2024, visits to fast-casual establishments were up 3.3% YoY, while QSR visits grew by just 0.7%, and FSR visits fell by 0.3% YoY. As eating out becomes more expensive, consumers are gravitating toward dining options that offer better perceived value without compromising on quality. Fast-casual chains, which balance affordability with higher-quality ingredients and experiences, have increasingly become the go-to choice for value-conscious diners.
Fast-casual restaurants also tend to attract a higher-income demographic. Between January and August 2024, fast-casual restaurants drew visitors from Census Block Groups (CBGs) with a weighted median household income of $78.2K – higher than the nationwide median of $76.1K. (The CBGs feeding visits to these restaurants, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each CBG, are collectively referred to as their captured market).
Perhaps unsurprisingly, quick-service restaurants drew visitors from much less affluent areas. But interestingly, despite their pricier offerings, full-service restaurants also drew visitors from CBGs with a median HHI below the nationwide baseline. While fast-casual restaurants likely attract office-goers and other routine diners that can afford to eat out on a more regular basis, FSR chains may serve as special occasion destinations for those with more moderate means.
Though QSR, FSR, and fast-casual spots all seek to provide strong value propositions, dining chains across segments have been forced to raise prices over the past year to offset rising food and labor costs. This next section takes a look at several chains that have succeeded in raising prices without sacrificing visit growth – to explore some of the strategies that have enabled them to thrive.
The fast-casual restaurant space attracts diners that are on the wealthier side – but some establishments cater to even higher earners. One chain of note is NYC-based burger chain Shake Shack, which features a captured market median HHI of $94.3K. In comparison, the typical fast-casual diner comes from areas with a median HHI of $78.2K.
Shake Shack emphasizes high-quality ingredients and prices its offerings accordingly. The chain, which has been expanding its footprint, strategically places its locations in affluent, upscale, and high-traffic neighborhoods – driving foot traffic that consistently surpasses other fast-casual chains. And this elevated foot traffic has continued to impress, even as Shake Shack has raised its prices by 2.5% over the past year.
Steakhouse chain Texas Roadhouse has enjoyed a positive few years, weathering the pandemic with aplomb before moving into an expansion phase. And this year, the chain ranked in the top five for service, food quality, and overall experience by the 2024 Datassential Top 500 Restaurant Chain.
Like Shake Shack, Texas Roadhouse has raised its prices over the past year – three times – while maintaining impressive visit metrics. Between January and August 2024, foot traffic to the steakhouse grew by 9.7% YoY, outpacing visits to the overall FSR segment by wide margins.
This foot traffic growth is fueled not only by expansion but also by the chain's ability to draw traffic during quieter dayparts like weekday afternoons, while at the same time capitalizing on high-traffic times like weekends. Some 27.7% of weekday visits to Texas Roadhouse take place between 3:00 PM and 6:00 PM – compared to just 18.9% for the broader FSR segment – thanks to the chain’s happy hour offerings early dining specials. And 43.3% of visits to the popular steakhouse take place on Saturdays and Sundays, when many diners are increasingly choosing to splurge on restaurant meals, compared to 38.4% for the wider category.
Though rising costs have been on everybody’s minds, summer 2024 may be best remembered as the summer of value – with many quick-service restaurants seeking to counter higher prices by embracing Limited-Time Offers (LTOs). These LTOs offered diners the opportunity to save at the register and get more bang for their buck – while boosting visits at QSR chains across the country.
Limited time offers such as discounted meals and combo offers can encourage frequent visits, and Hardee’s $5.99 "Original Bag" combo, launched in August 2024, did just that. The combo allowed diners to mix and match popular items like the Double Cheeseburger and Hand-Breaded Chicken Tender Wraps, offering both variety and affordability. And visits to the chain during the month of August 2024 were 4.9% higher than Hardee’s year-to-date (YTD) monthly visit average.
August’s LTO also drove up Hardee’s already-impressive loyalty rates. Between May and July 2024, 40.1% to 43.4% of visits came from customers who visited Hardee’s at least three times during the month, likely encouraged by Hardee’s top-ranking loyalty program. But in August, Hardee’s share of loyal visits jumped to 51.5%, highlighting just how receptive many diners are to eating out – as long as they feel they are getting their money’s worth.
McDonald’s launched its own limited-time offer in late June 2024, aimed at providing value to budget-conscious consumers. And the LTO – McDonald’s foray into this summer’s QSR value wars – was such a resounding success that the fast-food leader decided to extend the deal into December.
McDonald’s LTO drove foot traffic to restaurants nationwide. But a closer look at the chain’s regional captured markets shows that the offer resonated particularly well with “Young Urban Singles” – a segment group defined by Spatial.ai's PersonaLive dataset as young singles beginning their careers in trade jobs. McDonald's locations in states where the captured market shares of this demographic surpassed statewide averages by wider margins saw bigger visit boosts in July 2024 – and the correlation was a strong one.
For example, the share of “Young Urban Singles” in McDonald’s Massachusetts captured market was 56.0% higher than the Massachusetts statewide baseline – and the chain saw a 10.6% visit boost in July 2024, compared to the chain's statewide H1 2024 monthly average. But in Florida, where McDonald’s captured markets were over-indexed for “Young Urban Singles” by just 13% compared to the statewide average, foot traffic jumped in July 2024 by a relatively modest 7.3%.
These young, price-conscious consumers, who are receptive to spending their discretionary income on dining out, are not the sole driver of McDonald’s LTO foot traffic success. Still, the promotion’s outsize performance in areas where McDonald’s attracts higher-than-average shares of Young Urban Singles shows that the offering was well-tailored to meet the particular needs and preferences of this key demographic.
While QSR, fast-casual, and FSR chains have largely boosted foot traffic through deals and specials, reputation is another powerful way to attract diners. Restaurants that earn a coveted Michelin Star often see a surge in visits, as was the case for Causa – a Peruvian dining destination in Washington, D.C. The restaurant received its first Michelin Star in November 2023, a major milestone for Chef Carlos Delgado.
The Michelin Star elevated the restaurant's profile, drawing in affluent diners who prioritize exclusivity and are less sensitive to price increases. Since the award, Causa saw its share of the "Power Elite" segment group in its captured market increase from 24.7% to 26.6%. Diners were also more willing to travel for the opportunity to partake in the Causa experience: In the six months following the award, some 40.3% of visitors to the restaurant came from more than ten miles away, compared to just 30.3% in the six months prior.
These data points highlight the power of a Michelin Star to increase a restaurant’s draw and attract more affluent audiences – allowing it to raise prices without losing its core clientele. Wealthier diners often seek unique culinary experiences, where price is less of a concern, making these establishments more resilient to inflation than more venues that serve more price-sensitive customers.
Dining preferences continue to evolve as restaurants adapt to a rapidly changing culinary landscape. From the rise in fast-casual dining to the benefits of limited-time offers, the analyzed restaurant categories are determining how to best reach their target audiences. By staying up-to-date with what people are eating, these restaurant categories can hope to continue bringing customers through the door.
The COVID-19 pandemic – and the subsequent shift to remote work – has fundamentally redefined where and how people live and work, creating new opportunities for smaller cities to thrive.
But where are relocators going in 2024 – and what are they looking for? This post dives into the data for several CBSAs with populations ranging from 500K to 2.5 million that have seen positive net domestic migration over the past several years – where population inflow outpaces outflow. Who is moving to these hubs, and what is drawing them?
The past few years have seen a shift in where people are moving. While major metropolitan areas like New York still attract newcomers, smaller cities, which offer a balance of affordability, livability, and career opportunities, are becoming attractive alternatives for those looking to relocate.
Between July 2020 and July 2024, for example, the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX CBSA, saw net domestic migration of 3.6% – not surprising, given the city of Austin’s ranking among U.S. News and World Report’s top places to live in 2024-5. Raleigh-Cary, NC, which also made the list, experienced net population inflow of 2.6%. And other metro areas, including Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR (3.3%), Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA (1.4%), Oklahoma City, OK (1.1%), and Madison, WI (0.6%) have seen more domestic relocators moving in than out over the past four years.
All of these CBSAs have also continued to see positive net migration over the past 12 months – highlighting their continued appeal into 2024.
What is driving domestic migration to these hubs? While these metropolitan areas span various regions of the country, they share a common characteristic: They all attract residents coming, on average, from CBSAs with younger and less affluent populations.
Between July 2020 and July 2024, for example, relocators to high-income Raleigh, NC – where the median household income (HHI) stands at $84K – tended to hail from CBSAs with a significantly lower weighted median HHI ($66.9K). Similarly, those moving to Austin, TX – where the median HHI is $85.4K – tended to come from regions with a median HHI of $69.9K. This pattern suggests that these cities offer newcomers an aspirational leap in both career and financial prospects.
Moreover, most of these CBSAs are drawing residents with a younger weighted median age than that of their existing residents, reinforcing their appeal as destinations for those still establishing and growing their careers. Des Moines and Oklahoma City, in particular, saw the largest gaps between the median age of newcomers and that of the existing population.
Career opportunities and affordable housing are major drivers of migration, and data from Niche’s Neighborhood Grades suggests that these CBSAs attract newcomers due to their strong performance in both areas. All of the analyzed CBSAs had better "Jobs" and "Housing" grades compared to the regions from which people migrated. For example, Austin, Texas received the highest "Jobs" rating with an A-, while most new arrivals came from areas where the "Jobs" grade was a B.
While the other analyzed CBSAs showed smaller improvements in job ratings, the combination of improvements in both “Jobs” and “Housing” make them appealing destinations for those seeking better economic opportunities and affordability.
Young professionals may be more open than ever to living in smaller metro areas, offering opportunities for cities like Austin and Raleigh to thrive. And the demographic analysis of newcomers to these CBSAs underscores their appeal to individuals seeking job opportunities and upward mobility.
Will these CBSAs continue to attract newcomers and cement their status as vibrant, opportunity-rich hubs for young professionals? And how will this new mix of population impact these growing markets?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven civic news.
