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Darden recently announced that it was considering ceasing operations for one of its chains, Bahama Breeze, following the closure of 15 of its 43 locations in May 2025.
Visit data for the brand highlights the struggles the Caribbean-inspired chain has faced in recent years. Year-over-year (YoY) visits were down in every year analyzed, and monthly visits declined in all but three of the past 12 months. The chain appeared particularly hard-hit starting in 2025, which may have been a consideration in Darden's decision to shutter Bahama Breeze locations.
Whether Darden plans to keep the remaining 28 Bahama Breeze restaurants operational or opt for a full sale remains to be seen, but the recent foot traffic challenges facing the brand position it for a strategic pivot – or more drastic measures.
As the U.S. economy moves to the midpoint of 2025, a divergent macro picture is starting to take hold. While consumers are showing renewed confidence and returning to stores (or at the very least, responding to heightened promotional activity across many retail categories), the industrial backbone of the economy – manufacturing and shipping – is tapping the brakes. This split narrative suggests that while immediate consumer sentiment has improved as tariff-related news has taken a backseat, industrial signals may be painting a more cautious picture.
The retail sector has seen a welcome rebound in May and June, following a sluggish start to the year when macroeconomic uncertainty and significant tariff-related news dampened spirits and hurt foot traffic in February and March. Year-over-year visitation data for the Placer 100 index – a composite of 100 of the largest retail and restaurant chains in the U.S. – indicates that shoppers have likely grown accustomed to the economic climate and are demonstrating more consistent and normal behaviors.
With the initial shock of potential price hikes having passed, consumers appear to be moving past the cautious approach that marked the first quarter, leading to stabilized and improving year-over-year visit trends across many retail categories.
Admittedly, there are multiple factors driving the recent increases in year-over-year retail traffic. Consumers remain squarely focused on value, which continues to drive outperformance for value grocers, warehouse clubs, and dollar stores (which also appear to be benefiting from less competition from Temu and Shein amid new regulatory restrictions). Off-price retailers continue to be one of the strongest performing categories year-to-date, capitalizing on increased inventory opportunities stemming from recent store closures and tariff-related supply chain disruptions, allowing them to fuel their "treasure hunt" model. Finally, traditional department stores have also contributed to the rebound through strong reception to events like Nordstrom’s Half-Yearly Sale and other promotional activity.
While retail visits have normalized in recent weeks, a different story is unfolding across U.S. factories and ports. Following a production surge in late March and April – when manufacturers ramped up activity to build inventory ahead of tariff deadlines – both manufacturing and port activity have seen a notable decline in May and into June.
Placer’s Industrial Manufacturing composite indicates that activity at manufacturing facilities – representing visits for both facility employees (estimated based on dwell time) and visitors, who often represent logistics partners – slowed in May and June.
Looking at manufacturing visit data by category, many U.S. factories took a breather in May, with our data showing a widespread slowdown in visits. The auto and auto parts industry has been hit particularly hard, feeling the direct impact of international tariffs. But this isn't just a car story – most other manufacturing sectors also pumped the brakes, signaling that many companies are cautiously getting ready for what could be an unpredictable second half of the year.
Slowing new orders and decreasing container volumes at major ports suggest that businesses, having already front-loaded their inventory, are now taking a more cautious look toward the second half of 2025. Many appear hesitant to over-commit amidst an unpredictable trade policy landscape.
Our visitation data for some of the busiest ports in the U.S. generally shows a strong correlation with the Bureau of Transportation's container import and export statistics. While our data indicated increased activity at several Eastern ports ahead of initial tariff implementation dates in early April, we have since observed visitation trends declining through much of April and May. The one notable exception is the Port of Houston – where gasoline imports are often received – which saw a spike in activity in May that has continued through June.
The two-track U.S. economy at the mid-point of 2025 highlights a clear divergence between consumer behavior and industrial strategy. While shoppers have returned to stores, driven by a hunt for value and successful promotions, the industrial sector is sending more cautious signals. The slowdown in activity at manufacturing facilities and ports suggests that businesses, having already front-loaded inventory ahead of tariffs, are now bracing for potential volatility. This sets up a classic economic tug-of-war for the second half of the year, leaving a critical question: Will resilient consumer spending eventually pull the industrial sector back into a growth cycle, or will the manufacturing slowdown ultimately impact supply chains, shelf availability, and the recent retail rebound?
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Grab-and-go dining is thriving. Recent data indicates that nearly three out of four restaurant orders are taken to go. This trend is a particularly beneficial one for the limited-service dining category, which encompasses quick-service, fast-casual, and coffee chains.
We took a look at the visit data for these three subcategories of the limited-service dining world to understand how consumer behavior varies by dining type.
In a period marked by economic concerns, diners seeking convenient and budget-friendly choices often turn to limited-service options. And in recent months, coffee emerged as the strongest segment within the limited-service category, followed by fast-casual restaurants. Visits to both segments were up every month except February, when YoY foot traffic dropped due to inclement weather and a leap year comparison. Meanwhile, QSR saw essentially flat YoY visitation trends since March 2025.
This visit performance highlights shifts in dining preferences across visitors to the three segments. Coffee’s status as an affordable indulgence may be one factor driving traffic to the category. And with consumers becoming more discerning about their disposable income, fast-casual restaurants appear to be benefiting from the quality and perceived value that many such chains offer.
Diving deeper into the data suggests that short visits (less than 10 minutes) drove much of the growth in the coffee and fast-casual segments during the first five months of 2025, with YoY trends for short visits consistently outperforming YoY trends for longer (10+ minutes) visits.
The overall coffee segment continues to impress with elevated visits, though a closer look reveals significant variances within the category.
Specifically, mid-sized and small coffee chains are thriving. These chains – including brands like Dutch Bros and Black Rock Coffee Bar experienced YoY visit growth of 7.3% and 7.1%, respectively, largely due to chain expansions. In contrast, large coffee chains – a sub-category that includes major players like Starbucks and Dunkin’ – saw visits dip by 4.5% YoY.
And small coffee chains were the only segment to experience a slight YoY uptick in average visits per location – indicating that even as the segment expanded its footprint, existing locations, on average, continued to see modest visit growth. This trend may be partially attributed to the relative affluence of these chains’ visitors, who tended to come from trade areas with more high-income consumers (>$100K) than those frequenting mid-sized and large coffee chains.
Within the fast-casual and quick-service dining segment, burger chains reign supreme, but they face a formidable new challenger. Big Chicken – fast-casual and quick-service dining chains that focus on chicken in all its forms – have been ascendant over the past few years. Between 2019 and 2025, these restaurants significantly expanded their relative visit share from 15.0% to 18.3% among a wide range of fast-casual and quick-service dining categories, including burgers, Mexican chains, sandwich chains, and pizza chains. Much of this growth came at the expense of burger chains, which, despite retaining their title as the category’s largest segment, saw their relative visit share decline from 62.3% in 2019 to 59.8% in 2025.
The limited service category, encompassing a huge range of dining options, continues to evolve and thrive, whether through the dominance of small coffee chains or chicken offerings.
What changes might the category undergo in the coming months and years?
Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven dining insights.
Shortly after Big Lots’ December 2024 decision to close all remaining stores, the company announced plans to transfer more than 200 locations to Variety Wholesalers – owner of discount banners such as Roses, Maxway, and Super Dollar. Beginning in April 2025, these Big Lot venues began to reopen, and by early June 2025, 219 stores had already resumed operations.
Big Lots’ relaunch is centered on offering shoppers deep discounts and a treasure hunting experience by sourcing closeout, overstock, and liquidation deals. The brand has also revised its product mix – leaning into apparel and electronics while reducing furniture and eliminating perishables. But how likely is this strategy to succeed, and what does it offer Variety Wholesalers?
We dove into the data to find out.
Between January and May 2025, leading discount and dollar chains experienced positive year-over-year (YoY) growth in both visits and average visits per location, reflecting ongoing consumer demand for value. But among these major players, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet stood out with a 14.4% YoY increase in visits and a 6.3% rise in average visits per location, even as the brand continued its store expansion. This trend underscores the strong interest in heavily discounted closeout deals, affirming Big Lots’ decision to reinvest in a liquidation-based model.
An analysis of Big Lots locations reopened by May 1st, 2025 reveals that customers interact with the stores like they do with other treasure-hunting venues. In May 2025, Big Lots saw more weekend and extended visits compared to the category average – mirroring the browsing-friendly vibe at Ollie’s or Five Below. By encouraging shoppers to explore, linger, and discover bargains, Big Lots is creating a retail destination likely to appeal to customers seeking both value and a bit of fun.
Variety Wholesalers hopes to leverage the Big Lots acquisition to reach higher-income bargain hunters. And data from reopened Big Lots stores shows they attract shoppers with more money to spend than Variety Wholesalers’ existing banners – though still less than the nationwide baseline, making them especially receptive to discount offerings. In May 2025, Big Lots’ captured market median HHI stood at $60.9K – close to Ollie’s $64.6K – further underscoring the potential success of a treasure-hunt strategy for Big Lots.
By returning to its deep discount roots, Big Lots appears poised to resonate with today’s value seeking customers. And with the discount segment continuing to grow, this renewed focus on bargains and treasure hunts may help the brand get back on its feet.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Retailers and brands have often turned to limited-edition roll outs, product drops, or collaborations to drive traffic – and hopefully incremental sales. But, do these efforts still resonate with shoppers? Are these programs still as meaningful to the retail industry as they once were?
We dove into the data to see how consumers responded to recent high-profile offerings launched this spring by Trader Joe’s and Target.
When thinking about viral product sensations in 2025, it’s hard not to include the mini tote bag from Trader Joe’s. First released in February 2024 and then again September to fan frenzy, the original bags came in bold, classic colorways like red, yellow, blue and green. This spring, Trader Joe’s changed things up with a pastel-handled version – and once again, consumers couldn’t shop the bags fast enough.
The new mini totes debuted in-store on Tuesday, April 8th, 2025, and foot traffic estimates indicate a highly successful launch. Visits to Trader Joe’s were up 21.2% on launch day compared to a year-to-date Tuesday average, making it the busiest Tuesday of the year so far. Foot traffic also outpaced the mini totes’ second run on September 18th by 13.7%. Clearly, mini totes are the key to Trader Joe’s fanatics’ hearts.
The success of the program may stem in part from Trader Joe’s strong appeal to consumer segments heavily influenced by social media. In April 2025, the chain saw a higher penetration among “Educated Urbanites” and “Young Professionals” compared to the wider grocery industry – two groups that would be heavily clued into viral product trends.
Another high-profile product drop this April was Target’s Kate Spade collection, featuring women’s apparel, shoes, accessories, and home goods.
On the surface, Kate Spade seems a perfect fit for Target – the two brands share remarkably similar visitor profiles, primarily attracting affluent, suburban families. Both brands also place a strong emphasis on discretionary offerings – and the overlap in aesthetic and consumer preferences makes sense in today’s retail market.
However, in-store visitation on launch day (Saturday, April 12th) was down 6.8% compared to the release day of 2024’s collaboration with designer Diane Von Furstenberg and down 3.0% compared to the launch day of 2023’s collaboration with Agua Bendita, Rhode, and Fe Noel. Still, traffic was up 14.1% compared to the 2018 Hunter release. And the collection also debuted on Target.com at midnight PST the same day, so in-store traffic may not reflect overall demand.
One positive takeaway from the collaboration? Its ability to draw back affluent suburban shoppers – a key Target audience. In April 2025, the median household income (HHI) of Target’s captured market experienced a minor but significant bump – up to $86.4K, compared to $85.9K in March 2025 and $85.7K in April 2024.
Today’s shoppers are in the driver’s seat when it comes to setting trends, and retailers spend more time courting them than positioning themselves as authorities on what’s “cool.” Against this backdrop, retailers and brands are constantly vying for the next big viral sensation – or for those products or collections that become must-shop phenomena.
As retailers grapple with how to provide value to consumers amidst economic uncertainty, these offerings provide a new incentive for shoppers to visit that isn’t solely focused on price. Consumers may indeed perceive limited runs to be higher quality, more valuable or worth the extra investment. The concept of manufactured scarcity isn’t new in retail, but it continues to take on new forms as the consumer and industry evolve. We may reach a point where exclusivity and scarcity no longer move the needle for retailers, but that doesn’t seem likely in 2025.
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Target's visits shot up over the pandemic – but the chain has struggled to maintain its COVID-era momentum in recent years. Now, the upcoming back-to-school season presents an opportunity for the chain to bring visits back up.
Target's visits shot up between 2020 and 2022 as Americans stuck at home stocked up on everything from home goods to snacks to sporting equipment. But traffic has slowed since mid-2022, and although Target's visit gap has narrowed recently – May '25 visits were down just 1.7% YoY, a significant improvement from February's 9.1% YoY visit gap – year-over-year (YoY) visits were still down for five of the last six months.
Now, the upcoming back-to-school season may present just the opportunity the retailer needs to swing back into visit growth.
August is Target's second-busiest month of the year (the first is December), as the retailer sees visit upticks from everyone from families looking for back-to-school supplies to students getting ready for a new semester and renters switching leases. This seasonal strength offers more than just high traffic volume – it presents a unique comeback opportunity.
And August isn't just one of Target's busiest months – recent August traffic trends have also outperformed the broader twelve-month pattern.
While Target's overall YoY visit gap has widened over the past year (visits dropped 3.0% between June '24 and May '25 compared to the previous 12-month period, versus a smaller 2.2% decline in the prior year comparison), August's YoY visit gap has narrowed. This may suggest that shoppers who've reduced their Target visits throughout the year still prioritize the retailer during back-to-school season.
This creates a strategic window: Target can leverage this seasonal loyalty by enhancing its in-store experience and product selection during summer months, potentially winning back customers who might otherwise shop elsewhere during the rest of the year.
Families – especially middle and high-income families – make up a significant share of Target's captured market throughout the year. August is no exception – almost half (43.2%) of Target's captured market was made up of just four family segments in August '24 (according to Spatial.ai PersonaLive audience segmentation). Still, this is slightly lower than the 43.4% of family segments in Target's captured market between June '24 and May '25 – indicating that Target's August strength extends beyond its traditional family base.
Meanwhile, the share of single segments in Target's captured markets, which stood at 19.6% over the past twelve months, was up to 20.4% in August '24. So the retailer's summer boost is also driven by college students, young professionals, and other single shoppers – and these consumers may be looking for a different product mix and shopping experience than the traditional back-to-school fare.
Families remain Target's largest visitor segment, so the company should continue meeting the needs of this audience by offering a one-stop back-to-school destination along with BOPIS and curbside pickup to accommodate parents' busy lifestyles.
But the company can also make sure its offerings and shopping experience is set up to meet the needs of its Gen Z and millennial visitors when planning its back to school campaigns and in-store set up. Curating a "Singles & Students" section, carrying compact furniture and dorm room essentials, and setting up Instagram-worthy product displays may help these shoppers see Target as their retail home – building loyalty and boosting Target's traffic throughout the year.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
New York City is one of the world’s leading commercial centers – and Manhattan, home to some of the nation's most prominent corporations, is at its epicenter. Manhattan’s substantial in-office workforce has helped make New York a post-pandemic office recovery leader, outpacing most other major U.S. hubs. And the plethora of healthcare, service, and other on-site workers that keep the island humming along also contribute to its thriving employment landscape.
Using the latest location analytics, this report examines the shifting dynamics of the many on-site workers employed in Manhattan and the up-and-coming Hudson Yards neighborhood. Where does today’s Manhattan workforce come from? How often do on-site employees visit Hudson Yards? And how has the share of young professionals across Manhattan’s different districts shifted since the pandemic?
Read on to find out.
The rise in work-from-home (WFH) trends during the pandemic and the persistence of hybrid work have changed the face of commuting in Manhattan.
In Q2 2019, nearly 60% of employee visits to Manhattan originated off the island. But in Q2 2021, that share fell to just 43.9% – likely due to many commuters avoiding public transportation and practicing social distancing during COVID.
Since Q2 2022, however, the share of employee visits to Manhattan from outside the borough has rebounded – steadily approaching, but not yet reaching, pre-pandemic levels. By Q2 2024, 54.7% of employee visits to Manhattan originated from elsewhere – likely a reflection of the Big Apple’s accelerated RTO that is drawing in-office workers back into the city.
Unsurprisingly, some nearby boroughs – including Queens and the Bronx – have seen their share of Manhattan worker visits bounce back to what they were in 2019, while further-away areas of New York and New Jersey continue to lag behind. But Q2 2024 also saw an increase in the share of Manhattan workers commuting from other states – both compared to 2023 and compared to 2019 – perhaps reflecting the rise of super commuting.
Commuting into Manhattan is on the rise – but how often are employees making the trip? Diving into the data for employees based in Hudson Yards – Manhattan’s newest retail, office, and residential hub, which was officially opened to the public in March 2019 – reveals that the local workforce favors fewer in-person work days than in the past.
In August 2019, before the pandemic, 60.2% of Hudson Yards-based employees visited the neighborhood at least fifteen times. But by August 2021, the neighborhood’s share of near-full-time on-site workers had begun to drop – and it has declined ever since. In August 2024, only 22.6% of local workers visited the neighborhood 15+ times throughout the month. Meanwhile, the share of Hudson Yards-based employees making an appearance between five and nine times during the month emerged as the most common visit frequency by August 2022 – and has continued to increase since. In August 2024, 25.0% of employees visited the neighborhood less than five times a month, 32.5% visited between five and nine times, and 19.2% visited between 10 and 14 times.
Like other workers throughout Manhattan, Hudson Yards employees seem to have fully embraced the new hybrid normal – coming into the office between one and four times a week.
But not all employment centers in the Hudson Yards neighborhood see the same patterns of on-site work. Some of the newest office buildings in the area appear to attract employees more frequently and from further away than other properties.
Of the Hudson Yards properties analyzed, Two Manhattan West, which was completed this year, attracted the largest share of frequent, long-distance commuters in August 2024 (15.3%) – defined as employees visiting 10+ times per month from at least 30 miles away. And The Spiral, which opened last year, drew the second-largest share of such on-site workers (12.3%).
Employees in these skyscrapers may prioritize in-person work – or have been encouraged by their employers to return to the office – more than their counterparts in other Hudson Yards buildings. Employees may also choose to come in more frequently to enjoy these properties’ newer and more advanced amenities. And service and shift workers at these properties may also be coming in more frequently to support the buildings’ elevated occupancy.
Diving deeper into the segmentation of on-site employees in the Hudson Yards district provides further insight into this unique on-site workforce.
Analysis of POIs corresponding to several commercial and office hubs in the borough reveals that between August 2019 and August 2024, Hudson Yards’ captured market had the fastest-growing share of employees belonging to STI: Landscape's “Apprentices” segment, which encompasses young, highly-paid professionals in urban settings.
Companies looking to attract young talent have already noticed that these young professionals are receptive to Hudson Yards’ vibrant atmosphere and collaborative spaces, and describe this as a key factor in their choice to lease local offices.
Manhattan is a bastion of commerce, and its strong on-site workforce has helped lead the nation’s post-pandemic office recovery. But the dynamics of the many Manhattan-based workers continues to shift. And as new commercial and residential hubs emerge on the island, workplace trends and the characteristics of employees are almost certain to evolve with them.
The restaurant space has experienced its fair share of challenges in recent years – from pandemic-related closures to rising labor and ingredient costs. Despite these hurdles, the category is holding its own, with total 2024 spending projected to reach $1.1 trillion by the end of the year.
And an analysis of year-over-year (YoY) visitation trends to restaurants nationwide shows that consumers are frequenting dining establishments in growing numbers – despite food-away-from-home prices that remain stubbornly high.
Overall, monthly visits to restaurants were up nearly every month this year compared to the equivalent periods of 2023. Only in January, when inclement weather kept many consumers at home, did restaurants see a significant YoY drop. Throughout the rest of the analyzed period, YoY visits either held steady or grew – showing that Americans are finding room in their budgets to treat themselves to tasty, hassle-free meals.
Still, costs remain elevated and dining preferences have shifted, with consumers prioritizing value and convenience – and restaurants across segments are looking for ways to meet these changing needs. This white paper dives into the data to explore the trends impacting quick-service restaurants (QSR), full-service restaurants (FSR), and fast-casual dining venues – and strategies all three categories are using to stay ahead of the pack.
Overall, the dining sector has performed well in 2024, but a closer look at specific segments within the industry shows that fast-casual restaurants are outperforming both QSR and FSR chains.
Between January and August 2024, visits to fast-casual establishments were up 3.3% YoY, while QSR visits grew by just 0.7%, and FSR visits fell by 0.3% YoY. As eating out becomes more expensive, consumers are gravitating toward dining options that offer better perceived value without compromising on quality. Fast-casual chains, which balance affordability with higher-quality ingredients and experiences, have increasingly become the go-to choice for value-conscious diners.
Fast-casual restaurants also tend to attract a higher-income demographic. Between January and August 2024, fast-casual restaurants drew visitors from Census Block Groups (CBGs) with a weighted median household income of $78.2K – higher than the nationwide median of $76.1K. (The CBGs feeding visits to these restaurants, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each CBG, are collectively referred to as their captured market).
Perhaps unsurprisingly, quick-service restaurants drew visitors from much less affluent areas. But interestingly, despite their pricier offerings, full-service restaurants also drew visitors from CBGs with a median HHI below the nationwide baseline. While fast-casual restaurants likely attract office-goers and other routine diners that can afford to eat out on a more regular basis, FSR chains may serve as special occasion destinations for those with more moderate means.
Though QSR, FSR, and fast-casual spots all seek to provide strong value propositions, dining chains across segments have been forced to raise prices over the past year to offset rising food and labor costs. This next section takes a look at several chains that have succeeded in raising prices without sacrificing visit growth – to explore some of the strategies that have enabled them to thrive.
The fast-casual restaurant space attracts diners that are on the wealthier side – but some establishments cater to even higher earners. One chain of note is NYC-based burger chain Shake Shack, which features a captured market median HHI of $94.3K. In comparison, the typical fast-casual diner comes from areas with a median HHI of $78.2K.
Shake Shack emphasizes high-quality ingredients and prices its offerings accordingly. The chain, which has been expanding its footprint, strategically places its locations in affluent, upscale, and high-traffic neighborhoods – driving foot traffic that consistently surpasses other fast-casual chains. And this elevated foot traffic has continued to impress, even as Shake Shack has raised its prices by 2.5% over the past year.
Steakhouse chain Texas Roadhouse has enjoyed a positive few years, weathering the pandemic with aplomb before moving into an expansion phase. And this year, the chain ranked in the top five for service, food quality, and overall experience by the 2024 Datassential Top 500 Restaurant Chain.
Like Shake Shack, Texas Roadhouse has raised its prices over the past year – three times – while maintaining impressive visit metrics. Between January and August 2024, foot traffic to the steakhouse grew by 9.7% YoY, outpacing visits to the overall FSR segment by wide margins.
This foot traffic growth is fueled not only by expansion but also by the chain's ability to draw traffic during quieter dayparts like weekday afternoons, while at the same time capitalizing on high-traffic times like weekends. Some 27.7% of weekday visits to Texas Roadhouse take place between 3:00 PM and 6:00 PM – compared to just 18.9% for the broader FSR segment – thanks to the chain’s happy hour offerings early dining specials. And 43.3% of visits to the popular steakhouse take place on Saturdays and Sundays, when many diners are increasingly choosing to splurge on restaurant meals, compared to 38.4% for the wider category.
Though rising costs have been on everybody’s minds, summer 2024 may be best remembered as the summer of value – with many quick-service restaurants seeking to counter higher prices by embracing Limited-Time Offers (LTOs). These LTOs offered diners the opportunity to save at the register and get more bang for their buck – while boosting visits at QSR chains across the country.
Limited time offers such as discounted meals and combo offers can encourage frequent visits, and Hardee’s $5.99 "Original Bag" combo, launched in August 2024, did just that. The combo allowed diners to mix and match popular items like the Double Cheeseburger and Hand-Breaded Chicken Tender Wraps, offering both variety and affordability. And visits to the chain during the month of August 2024 were 4.9% higher than Hardee’s year-to-date (YTD) monthly visit average.
August’s LTO also drove up Hardee’s already-impressive loyalty rates. Between May and July 2024, 40.1% to 43.4% of visits came from customers who visited Hardee’s at least three times during the month, likely encouraged by Hardee’s top-ranking loyalty program. But in August, Hardee’s share of loyal visits jumped to 51.5%, highlighting just how receptive many diners are to eating out – as long as they feel they are getting their money’s worth.
McDonald’s launched its own limited-time offer in late June 2024, aimed at providing value to budget-conscious consumers. And the LTO – McDonald’s foray into this summer’s QSR value wars – was such a resounding success that the fast-food leader decided to extend the deal into December.
McDonald’s LTO drove foot traffic to restaurants nationwide. But a closer look at the chain’s regional captured markets shows that the offer resonated particularly well with “Young Urban Singles” – a segment group defined by Spatial.ai's PersonaLive dataset as young singles beginning their careers in trade jobs. McDonald's locations in states where the captured market shares of this demographic surpassed statewide averages by wider margins saw bigger visit boosts in July 2024 – and the correlation was a strong one.
For example, the share of “Young Urban Singles” in McDonald’s Massachusetts captured market was 56.0% higher than the Massachusetts statewide baseline – and the chain saw a 10.6% visit boost in July 2024, compared to the chain's statewide H1 2024 monthly average. But in Florida, where McDonald’s captured markets were over-indexed for “Young Urban Singles” by just 13% compared to the statewide average, foot traffic jumped in July 2024 by a relatively modest 7.3%.
These young, price-conscious consumers, who are receptive to spending their discretionary income on dining out, are not the sole driver of McDonald’s LTO foot traffic success. Still, the promotion’s outsize performance in areas where McDonald’s attracts higher-than-average shares of Young Urban Singles shows that the offering was well-tailored to meet the particular needs and preferences of this key demographic.
While QSR, fast-casual, and FSR chains have largely boosted foot traffic through deals and specials, reputation is another powerful way to attract diners. Restaurants that earn a coveted Michelin Star often see a surge in visits, as was the case for Causa – a Peruvian dining destination in Washington, D.C. The restaurant received its first Michelin Star in November 2023, a major milestone for Chef Carlos Delgado.
The Michelin Star elevated the restaurant's profile, drawing in affluent diners who prioritize exclusivity and are less sensitive to price increases. Since the award, Causa saw its share of the "Power Elite" segment group in its captured market increase from 24.7% to 26.6%. Diners were also more willing to travel for the opportunity to partake in the Causa experience: In the six months following the award, some 40.3% of visitors to the restaurant came from more than ten miles away, compared to just 30.3% in the six months prior.
These data points highlight the power of a Michelin Star to increase a restaurant’s draw and attract more affluent audiences – allowing it to raise prices without losing its core clientele. Wealthier diners often seek unique culinary experiences, where price is less of a concern, making these establishments more resilient to inflation than more venues that serve more price-sensitive customers.
Dining preferences continue to evolve as restaurants adapt to a rapidly changing culinary landscape. From the rise in fast-casual dining to the benefits of limited-time offers, the analyzed restaurant categories are determining how to best reach their target audiences. By staying up-to-date with what people are eating, these restaurant categories can hope to continue bringing customers through the door.
The COVID-19 pandemic – and the subsequent shift to remote work – has fundamentally redefined where and how people live and work, creating new opportunities for smaller cities to thrive.
But where are relocators going in 2024 – and what are they looking for? This post dives into the data for several CBSAs with populations ranging from 500K to 2.5 million that have seen positive net domestic migration over the past several years – where population inflow outpaces outflow. Who is moving to these hubs, and what is drawing them?
The past few years have seen a shift in where people are moving. While major metropolitan areas like New York still attract newcomers, smaller cities, which offer a balance of affordability, livability, and career opportunities, are becoming attractive alternatives for those looking to relocate.
Between July 2020 and July 2024, for example, the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX CBSA, saw net domestic migration of 3.6% – not surprising, given the city of Austin’s ranking among U.S. News and World Report’s top places to live in 2024-5. Raleigh-Cary, NC, which also made the list, experienced net population inflow of 2.6%. And other metro areas, including Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR (3.3%), Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA (1.4%), Oklahoma City, OK (1.1%), and Madison, WI (0.6%) have seen more domestic relocators moving in than out over the past four years.
All of these CBSAs have also continued to see positive net migration over the past 12 months – highlighting their continued appeal into 2024.
What is driving domestic migration to these hubs? While these metropolitan areas span various regions of the country, they share a common characteristic: They all attract residents coming, on average, from CBSAs with younger and less affluent populations.
Between July 2020 and July 2024, for example, relocators to high-income Raleigh, NC – where the median household income (HHI) stands at $84K – tended to hail from CBSAs with a significantly lower weighted median HHI ($66.9K). Similarly, those moving to Austin, TX – where the median HHI is $85.4K – tended to come from regions with a median HHI of $69.9K. This pattern suggests that these cities offer newcomers an aspirational leap in both career and financial prospects.
Moreover, most of these CBSAs are drawing residents with a younger weighted median age than that of their existing residents, reinforcing their appeal as destinations for those still establishing and growing their careers. Des Moines and Oklahoma City, in particular, saw the largest gaps between the median age of newcomers and that of the existing population.
Career opportunities and affordable housing are major drivers of migration, and data from Niche’s Neighborhood Grades suggests that these CBSAs attract newcomers due to their strong performance in both areas. All of the analyzed CBSAs had better "Jobs" and "Housing" grades compared to the regions from which people migrated. For example, Austin, Texas received the highest "Jobs" rating with an A-, while most new arrivals came from areas where the "Jobs" grade was a B.
While the other analyzed CBSAs showed smaller improvements in job ratings, the combination of improvements in both “Jobs” and “Housing” make them appealing destinations for those seeking better economic opportunities and affordability.
Young professionals may be more open than ever to living in smaller metro areas, offering opportunities for cities like Austin and Raleigh to thrive. And the demographic analysis of newcomers to these CBSAs underscores their appeal to individuals seeking job opportunities and upward mobility.
Will these CBSAs continue to attract newcomers and cement their status as vibrant, opportunity-rich hubs for young professionals? And how will this new mix of population impact these growing markets?
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