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What does 2024 hold for malls and shopping centers? We dove into the data to unearth the trends likely to shape the space in the coming year.
The move towards greater tenant diversity in malls shaped the shopping center space in recent years, and the trend appears set to be taken to the next level in 2024. Placemaking – crafting public spaces that go beyond utilitarian needs to foster social interaction and exchange – is at the forefront of many urban development initiatives, and the trend is already boosting retail performance in successful placemaking projects.
Fenton, a mixed-use district in Cary, N.C., opened in June 2022. The project showcases the potential of placemaking to transform an underutilized space into a vibrant “live-work-play” community with something for individuals and families of all ages. The retail and entertainment village includes shops, restaurants, seasonal attractions, entertainment venues, and other diverse offerings that are establishing Fenton as a community hub and a prime destination for residents. Visits were up 53.2% between July and December 2023 compared to the same period in 2022, while median dwell time increased from 64 to 83 minutes.
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Across the country, in Phoenix, AZ, Park Central Mall – the state’s first open-air shopping center – was also redesigned as a mixed-use development Park Central. The complex includes restaurants, office space, medical facilities, and bioscience research labs, with more hospitality and housing under construction. And although the project first reopened in 2019, visits to the revitalized Park Central continue to grow – between 2022 and 2023, foot traffic to Park Central increased by 32.8% while median dwell time grew from 75 to 80 minutes.
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In 2023, malls attracted relatively high income shoppers – and as the trend is likely to continue in 2024, with high-income shoppers displaying significantly stronger consumer confidence than their middle- and low-income counterparts.
Households in the potential market trade areas of Indoor Malls, Open-Air Lifestyle Centers, and Outlet Malls tended to have higher incomes relative to the nationwide median – and the median HHI was even higher in the malls’ captured market trade area. This means that many of these malls are located within relatively affluent communities (hence the relatively high potential market median HHI) and attract the higher-income shoppers within those areas (as shown by the even higher captured market median HHI).
With middle-income shoppers expected to tighten their budgets in 2024, high-income consumers will likely remain a significant share of mall-goers in 2024 as well.
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Malls used to be the place for teens to hang out on weekends – and it looks like shopping centers are once again attracting younger generations of consumers. Between 2019 and 2023, the share of “Young Professionals” and “Young Urban Singles” in the captured market trade areas of Indoor Malls, Open-Air Shopping Centers, and Outlet Malls increased. At the same time, the share of older segments – “Suburban Boomers” and “Sunset Boomers” – decreased.
As Gen-Z shoppers rediscover physical stores and increasingly seek out the mall-going experience, the share of younger consumers visiting shopping centers may well grow larger in the upcoming year.
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Last year’s ongoing inflation brought a unique set of challenges to a brick-and-mortar space still recovering from the pandemic’s impact. But 2023 ended with a surge in consumer confidence, and 2024 may well bring a positive shift to malls and the wider retail landscape. And shopping centers – especially those that offer a diversity of experience and succeed in catering high-income and/or younger shoppers – can take advantage of the opportunities in the year ahead.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/blog.
Few things are as universally loved as freshly baked bread. And the options for where to find a loaf are plentiful, from local artisan shops to bakery chains to grocery store bread counters. Is there room in the crowded bakery scene for everyone? We take a closer look at the visitation data for a few bakery chains that are on the rise to find out.
Paris Baguette, the South Korean bakery and cafe chain, inaugurated its first U.S. store in Los Angeles in 2005. True to its name, the chain offers a menu inspired by classic French boulangeries with a Korean twist – think mochi donuts sold alongside croissants.
Paris Baguette hopes to operate 1,000 stores across the country by 2030; to that end, it embraced a franchising approach in 2015 to accelerate growth and store openings. Visitation patterns suggest that this move has proven itself to be a winning one.
Examining the change in monthly visits to Paris Baguette locations since November 2019 underscores the brand’s remarkable growth. The chain operated 77 stores in the U.S. in November 2019; today, that number has nearly doubled. And visits have soared accordingly, with December 2023 seeing 96.7% more monthly visits than December 2019.
As Paris Baguette continues to see its success rising, the bakery chain appears well-positioned to maintain its momentum and achieve its ambitious expansion plans.
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85°C Bakery, often dubbed the "Starbucks of Taiwan," made its way to the U.S. in 2008. The chain, which operated 59 U.S. stores as of March 2023 in addition to its significant international presence, seeks to solidify its standing in the American market.
Named after the ideal coffee-brewing temperature, 85°C has enjoyed year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic growth throughout most of 2023. And the chain, which currently operates in the West and in Texas, announced plans for an East Coast expansion in August 2023, signaling its intent to reach new consumer segments.
Diving into the visitation data reveals that 85°C not only enjoys strong monthly foot traffic but also draws more family households (defined by the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset) to its trade areas compared to the statewide average. In California, Texas, and Washington, the trade areas show an overrepresentation of "Near-Urban Diverse Families," "Ultra Wealthy Families," and "Wealthy Suburban Families." This suggests that families – particularly affluent ones – are drawn to the chain.
As 85°C continues expanding, including into new markets and dining concepts – such as the recent addition of a dumpling shop – the chain hopes to continue bringing its Taiwanese flavors to a wider audience.
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Tartine and Porto’s are two Los Angeles natives with very different approaches to dough. Tartine, the brainchild of breadmasters Chad Robertson and Elizabeth Prueitt, is thought to have brought sourdough bread into the mainstream in the U.S. Porto’s, on the other hand, began as an immigrant-owned bakery in the 1970s, bringing the taste of Cuba to California.
And the two chains, while both based in the same city, see significant differences in their visitor demographics. Analyzing visitors to both bakery brands using the STI: Popstats dataset reveals that, while 29.1% of Porto’s captured market* trade area was made up of households with children – very close to the California median of 29.6% – only 17.3% of Tartine’s captured market* trade area was made up of households with children. And the median household income (HHI) also showed significant variance between the brands, with Tartine visitors earning significantly more than Porto’s and the California median HHI.
*A business’s captured market refers to the trade area with each census block weighted according to its share of visits to the chain or venue in question.
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The variance in demographics across these two iconic Los Angeles bakeries serves as testament to the city's diverse culinary landscape and ability to embrace and sustain a wide array of eateries.
The four bakeries prove that there is plenty of room in a crowded kitchen for different kinds of bakeries to succeed, from tiny artisan bakeries to major chains.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit placer.ai/blog.
Country clubs are changing with the times, moving away from the once-exclusive image of business dealings on the golf course. A more inclusive concept is taking root – and attracting a growing number of young members.
We took a closer look at the location intelligence metrics of country clubs throughout the country to understand how they are shifting and what might be driving these changes.
Golf and tennis, two country club stalwarts, surged in popularity over the COVID-19 pandemic, and that increase has sustained itself – more people than ever are playing the games. Looking at year-over-four-year (Yo4Y) visits to country clubs suggests that these establishments are reaping the benefits of the interest in both sports. Visits were elevated compared to the same period in 2019 for all but two months analyzed.
June, when the U.S. Open was held, saw the most impressive Yo4Y visit growth of 28.7%. The championship, the most-watched golf tournament since 2019, was held in the Los Angeles Country Club, and likely contributed to a spike in visits to golf clubs, either for U.S. Open-related events or a U.S. Open-inspired desire to golf. The year ended on a high note, with December visits to country clubs up by 12.1% Yo4Y – a solid indication that interest in membership clubs remains strong.
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Millennials, a consumer cohort that has historically shown little interest in joining country clubs, seem to be changing course and may be driving some of the visit growth. This population is increasingly seeking spaces to socialize and network – and in response, many golf clubs are shifting their offerings to appeal to a younger demographic. Location intelligence indicates that the strategy is working.
Examining country club demographics across the country – in Long Island, New York; Austin, Texas; Atlanta, Georgia; and Minneapolis, Minnesota – suggests a shift in membership makeup. Some of these areas have seen an influx of millennials in recent years, which likely expanded the pool of younger potential country club members. But the trade areas of many of the country clubs’ also skewed younger in 2023 than they did in 2019 – meaning that these clubs are attracting visitors from neighborhoods with lower median ages compared to the neighborhoods feeding visits to country clubs in 2019.
Some clubs, like the Capital City Country Club in Atlanta, Georgia, saw relatively small drops in median age – from 41.2 in 2019 to 40.2 in 2023. But other clubs saw much more pronounced drops – the Hazeltine National Golf Club near Minneapolis, Minnesota saw its median age drop by 7.8 years between 2019 and 2023. The Country Club Of The South in Atlanta, Georgia, also saw a Yo4Y drop in median age – from 38.0 to 31.8.
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Country clubs tend to have a steep financial barrier to entry, with costs including annual membership dues, initiation fees, and expenses for food and beverages. And perhaps unsurprisingly, most country club members boast a median household income (HHI) well above the nationwide median. And although younger demographics generally have to have less income than their older counterparts, the drop in median age across many country clubs does not seem to be having a major impact on the affluence of these clubs’ visitor bases.
Some clubs that experienced Yo4Y drops in the median age of visitors – Great Hills Country Club in Austin, Texas, for example – did see the median HHI of its visitors drop slightly. But for the most part, the median HHI of visitors to country clubs remained stable Yo4Y, and some, like the Edina Country Club in Minnesota, saw the median HHI grow Yo4Y. This suggests that the decline in median age within membership clubs may be driven by a desire for socializing and new experiences rather than a shift towards increased financial accessibility for a broader range of members.
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The shift in the demographics of country club visitors, marked by the rising number of younger members, is a trend that may solidify further. Clubs in tune with this demographic – young professionals and millennials – can consider what is important to this cohort to continue attracting the younger generation.
For more data-driven leisure and entertainment insights, visit placer.ai/blog.
Florida, known for its year-round sunny weather and iconic attractions like Disneyland and EPCOT, has long been a popular tourist destination. And though many people think of Miami and Orlando when planning a trip to Florida, Tampa is fast becoming one of the country's most popular getaway spots. The city has seen its tourism sector grow over the past few years, so we dove into the location analytics data to better understand these tourism trends.
Tampa has emerged as an attractive place for out-of-state home buyers and relocators in recent years – especially for younger generations looking to take advantage of the city’s status as an emerging tech hub as well as enjoy the pleasant climate and beautiful beaches. But examining foot traffic trends to Downtown Tampa also reveals Tampa’s growing popularity among out-of-state visitors.
Tampa International Airport – named the “best large airport in North America in 2023” – is growing fast, and visits to the Downtown Tampa POI from visitors coming from 250+ miles away were up almost every month of 2023, especially compared to pre-pandemic 2019. (Most places 250 miles or more outside Tampa are also outside Florida.) And although YoY foot traffic did dip some months, the drop was likely due to the comparison with a particularly strong 2022 that brought a record number of tourists to the Hillsborough County seat.
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Diving into the demographic data of visitors traveling to Downtown Tampa from at least 250 miles away helps shed light on who is driving this domestic tourism surge.
Between 2019 and 2023, the share of households with children in the trade areas feeding out-of-state visits to downtown Tampa grew from 25.9% in 2019 to 27.1% in 2023. Similarly, the median household income (HHI) of visitors to the city’s downtown also increased from $85.1K/year to $91.8K/year. These shifts in visitor demographics suggest that at least some of the tourism surge to the city may be driven by families with children and wealthy families.
It seems, then, that Tampa is on the rise not just as a retirement hub or as a millennial and Gen-Z hotspot. The city is also attracting an increasingly larger share of affluent families with children, indicating that this rising Florida star with something for everyone may soar even higher in 2024.
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With its pristine beaches and diverse attractions, Tampa has long boasted a robust tourism sector – and the city’s popularity has surged even higher post-pandemic. So far, 2024 looks promising for the city’s tourism segment. Will Tampa continue to attract vacationers and sight-seers?
Visit placer.ai/blog to find out.
As discussed last week, 2023 was a year that forced restaurant operators to stay agile amid inflationary headwinds and changes in consumer behavior, daypart shifts, new approaches to drive-thru, and population migration changes. This week’s ICR Conference also gave us a chance to speak with the management team from more than 25 restaurant chains as well as their investors to better understand their lessons from 2023 and how they plan to apply them in 2024.
Despite most chains reporting that visits are still down on a year-over-year basis, there was a sense of optimism among many of the operators we spoke to. Many acknowledged that there were still pressures weighing on consumer spending, but that the strategies put in place during 2023 to stabilize visitation trends had been working (including an emphasis on value, elevated experience, adopting new restaurant formats to better address a wider range of commercial property types, and new menu innovations). Several management teams acknowledged that the contractor availability and equipment supply chain bottlenecks that had plagued new store openings in 2023 had started to dissipate, with several chains planning to resume or even exceed their pre-pandemic pace of restaurant openings (although many admitted that new store buildout costs are still running 25%-30% higher than they were 5 years ago). Given the higher costs involved with new store openings (and the risk of opening a location in a subpar site), there was a heavy emphasis on harnessing new data sources to better understand migration trends, trade area demographics, and incumbent competition when making site selection opportunities (and thank you to customers like Dave & Buster’s and Chuy’s for highlighting how they are incorporating Placer data into these decisions).
Below, we discuss a few key trends that restaurant operators and their commercial real estate partners should be thinking about as we move into 2024.
Perhaps it shouldn’t be surprising at an event where several restaurant operators were looking to raise capital, but the overarching theme from most management teams that we spoke to this week was that they were ready to accelerate unit expansion plans. Expansion strategies differed by concept, but most operators planned to open new locations across a combination of existing and new markets. With respect to new markets, many operators told us they were prioritizing South and Southeastern markets for new market expansion, echoing what we heard from McDonald’s and others last year. Below, we’ve presented the latest data from Placer’s Migration Trends Report which shows total population changes by market from November 2019-November 2023. Indeed, our data confirms that many South (Phoenix, Texas) and Southeast (Central Florida, Carolinas) markets were among the highest growth populations in the U.S. over the past four years.
That said, with so many restaurant operators targeting these regions, we heard from several executives about the importance of fully understanding the makeup of the markets. Said another way, just because a market has seen meaningful population growth, it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a candidate for expansion. Below, we’ve presented the same migration map as above (2019-2023 population growth), but with a origin/destination household income filter. A red dot on this map indicates that a market saw the average household income fall because of migration, while a green dot indicates that a market saw an increase in household income. Here, we see a slightly different story, as many higher growth populations actually saw a decline in household income due to migration. We also see the impact of the urban/suburban migration shift that we’ve discussed in the past, with many smaller markets across the Carolinas and Central Florida seeing the highest household income growth versus 2019.
Below, we’ve attempted to bring the two charts together and identify markets that have not only seen population growth but also a significant increase in household income. We see markets like Las Vegas and other areas in Central Florida and the Carolinas region score well using this methodology, but a number of other markets like Boise City, ID, Lakeland, WI, and Spokane, WA also seeing increases in population but also an increase in their average household income.
Most U.S. markets have gone through significant changes post-pandemic both in terms of population size and population makeup. At the end of the day, it's important for restaurants and retailers to not only understand both of these factors when evaluating new markets for growth. We’ve certainly seen success stories–Portillo’s continues to thrive in Texas, for example–but we’ve also seen cases where restaurant openings haven’t been as successful in newer markets because of migration changes.
We spoke about trends in the eatertainment category last year with the conclusion being that these concepts were still key in driving traffic to commercial properties (despite facing tougher year-over-year comparisons from the great reopening we saw in 2022). There was a palpable sense of optimism among the eatertainment concepts we spoke to at the event, whether they were more focused on entertainment (including Dave & Buster’s, Puttshack, and Pinstripes) or interactive dining (Kura Revolving Sushi Bar or GEN Korean BBQ).
We’ve updated the eatertainment versus casual dining category visit per location analysis we’ve presented in the past below. Although eatertainment’s visit per location outperformance narrowed versus casual dining during Q4 2023, we believe this is a byproduct of seasonality (shift to sit-down dining during the holiday season) and expect the gap to widen once again during Q1 2024.
Most of the eatertainment concepts we spoke to at the ICR conference planned a two-pronged approach to unit expansion in 2024: infilling existing markets and establishing a beachhead in newer markets. Most concepts in this category were planning to grow their store bases by at least double-digit growth rates in 2024, with some like Pinstripes are forecasting 30%+ unit growth this year. Other like Dave & Buster’s are planning to focus on remodeling activity on top of new unit openings to modernize their locations. As demand for eatertainment remains strong among consumers and mall owners, we anticipate that this will remain one of the past growing categories in dining during 2024.
Casual dining concepts often have a reputation of catering to an older population. However, Darden’s management team called out several demographic trends that should benefit its different brands (including Olive Garden, Longhorn Steakhouse, Cheddar’s, Yardhouse, and others). First, while the percentage of the population in their peak earning years (typically between the ages of 35 and 55) had been on a downward trend for much of the 2000s and part of the 2010s, we’ve seen a reversal of this trend in recent years, which should stimulate demand for full-service dining. Second, the company noted that it over-indexes to millennials. Our data reinforces this, as the potential trade area audience profile by age cohort for Olive Garden (below) indicates a higher percentage of population between the ages of 30-49, encapsulating much of the millennial age range (roughly 27-42 years old today). Last year, we noted that some of the shift to earlier dining times may have been due to changing demographic trends in cities, with an increase in younger families in urban markets needing earlier dining times. Darden's commentary offers further validation of these trends and offers hope for other casual dining chains as this generation cohort continues to enter their peak earning years.
Last year, we noted that some of the shift to earlier dining times may have been due to changing demographic trends in cities, with an increase in younger families in urban markets needing earlier dining times. Darden's commentary offers further validation of these trends and offers hope for other casual dining chains as this generation cohort continues to enter their peak earning years.
Grocery anchors proved to be a saving grace for many a shopping center during COVID. With apparel and dining shut down and only essential retailers allowed to open, many centers suddenly found that having a superstore/mass merchant like Walmart or Target, a warehouse like Costco or Sam’s Club, or a grocery store on the premises helped to steady some of the waves of traffic fluctuations. Whether it was as part of a specific center or more broadly adding grocery-anchored centers to a portfolio, REITs started looking more closely at the role of grocery in their centers. Indeed, we have written about the inclusion of specialty grocery stores and ethnic grocery stores in shopping centers being even rather quotidian these days. We’ve also written about the redevelopment of shopping centers that include food halls as part of their renaissance.
So it was rather surprising that Bristol Farms’ concept Newfound Market, which opened at the Irvine Spectrum in March 2022, recently announced that it is closing. The initial concept was to be “very much about experience…diving in deep on food and beverage…curated, yet everyday.” It was to feature seven of Bristol Farms’ own chef-created restaurant brands.
We take a look at some Placer statistics to see what might have accounted for reduced traffic for what sounded like an amazing concept. As a control, we compared the Bristol Farms in Irvine to one in nearby Newport Beach. We see that when Newfound Market first opened, it had nearly twice the traffic of the one in Newport Beach. This could be due to overall excitement about the chef-driven concepts, wanting to check out a new grocery store, or other factors. However, traffic for Newfound Market began dwindling in Fall 2022, and fell even further in Fall 2023, likely leading to its closure.
If we look at variance, we see that during the same time period, traffic grew for Irvine Spectrum Center as a whole (note it was one of our spectacular callouts for holiday shopping 2023 in terms of year-over-year growth), and traffic was fairly steady for the Newport Beach branch of the Bristol Farms.
How much did the number of Newfound Market shoppers change over time? We compared the Bristol Farms Newfound Market Shopper from Apr.-Dec. 2022 with that of the shopper from Apr.-Dec. 2023. During that time, there were over 150K fewer visits and around 100K fewer visitors. Visit frequency also decreased from 1.54 to 1.4 (below).
There was a slight dip in the average household income of the visitor.
There was a marked decrease in the proportion of Ultra Wealthy Families coming in 2023, and somewhat of a decrease of Wealthy Suburban Families.
Interestingly, the trade area has expanded from 2022 to 2023, as shown by the increase in red dots from further afield.
And indeed, Placer analysis reveals that the trade area increased by 28 square miles. On one hand, this is a plus, showing that there is a magnetic draw to a wider audience. On the other hand, given that most grocery stores live on weekly visits from a much tighter trade area, this could indicate that a trip to Irvine Spectrum and/or the Bristol Farms Newfound Market began to fall under the umbrella of a “destination” visit, rather than a regular “essential” visit. Over time, those locals who associate the Irvine Spectrum more with a Ferris Wheel might not have grocery shopping there as top-of-mind, and those who come from further away have already tried out the food hall.
The average visit frequency to Bristol Farms Newfound market was 1.54 from Apr.-Dec. 2022 and 1.40 from Apr.-Dec. 2023. In contrast, the average visit frequency to the top four most-trafficked Bristol Farms was closer to 3-4 visits, a rate more than double. Most telling is when we look at the bar chart below and see that the number of one-time visitors versus 30+ time visitors at Newfound Market is almost in direct contrast to its four other peers, who have a much higher proportion of their visits in the 10+ range.
This by no means negates the fact that grocery stores and food halls can be wonderful additions to shopping centers. For instance, 99 Ranch opened at Westfield Oakridge around the same time period (March 2022) and to date it has proven to have a steady stream of traffic. Keep in mind that Oakridge is more of your neighborhood mall with typical mall retailers, hence more likely to be part of a weekly or monthly routine.
Comparing year-over-year variance, the 99 Ranch at Oakridge has also overindexed on a percentage basis compared to the overall mall. The grocery store draws from a trade area of 58 square miles, with an average of 2.86 visits.
2024 has been another challenging year for retailers. Still-high prices and an uncertain economic climate led many shoppers to trade down and cut back on unnecessary indulgences. Value took center stage, as cautious consumers sought to stretch their dollars as far as possible.
But price wasn’t the only factor driving consumer behavior in 2024. This past year saw the rise of a variety of retail and dining trends, some seemingly at odds with one another. Shoppers curbed discretionary spending, but made room in their budgets for “essential non-essentials” like gym memberships and other wellness offerings. Consumers placed a high premium on speed and convenience, while at the same time demonstrating a willingness to go out of their way for quality or value finds. And even amidst concern about the economy, shoppers were ready to pony up for specialty items, legacy brands, and fun experiences – as long as they didn’t break the bank.
How did these currents – likely to continue shaping the retail landscape into 2025 – impact leading brands and categories? We dove into the data to find out.
Bifurcation has emerged as a foundational principle in retail over the past few years: Consumers are increasingly gravitating toward either luxury or value offerings and away from the ‘middle.’ Add extended economic uncertainty along with rapid expansions and product diversification from top value-oriented retailers, and you have an explosion of visits in the value lane.
But we are seeing a ceiling to that growth – especially in the discount & dollar store space. Throughout 2023 and the first part of 2024, visits to discount & dollar stores increased steadily. But no category can sustain uninterrupted visit growth forever. Since April 2024, year–over-year (YoY) foot traffic to the segment has begun to slow, with September 2024 showing just a modest 0.8% YoY visit increase.
Discount & dollar stores, which attract lower-income shoppers compared to both grocery stores and superstores, have also begun lagging behind these segments in visit-per-location growth. In Q3, the average number of visits to each discount and dollar store location remained essentially flat compared to 2023 (+0.2%), while visits per location to superstores and grocery stores grew by 2.8% and 1.0%, respectively. As 2024 draws to a close, it is the latter segments, which appeal to shoppers with incomes closer to the nationwide median of $76.1K, which are seeing better YoY performance.
The deceleration doesn’t mean that discount retailers are facing existential risk – discount & dollar stores are still extremely strong and well-positioned with focused offerings that resonate with consumers. The visitation data does suggest, however, that future growth may need to focus on initiatives other large-scale fleet expansions. Some of these efforts will involve moving upmarket (see pOpShelf), some will focus on fleet optimization, and others may include new offerings and channels.
Return of the middle anyone?
Still, in an environment where consumers have been facing the compounded effects of rising prices, value remains paramount for many shoppers. And brands that have found ways to let customers have their cake and eat it too – enjoy specialty offerings and elevated experiences without breaking the bank – have emerged as major visit winners this year.
Trader Joe’s, in particular, has stood out as one of the leading retail brands for innovative value in 2024, a trend that is expected to continue into 2025.
Trader Joe’s dedicated fan base is positively addicted to the chain’s broad range of high-quality specialty items. But by maintaining a much higher private label mix than most grocers – approximately 80%, compared to an industry average of 25% to 30% – the retailer is also able to keep its pricing competitive. Trader Joe’s cultivates consumer excitement by constantly innovating its product line – there are even websites dedicated to showcasing the chain’s new offerings each season. In turn, Trader Joe’s enjoys much higher visits per square foot than the rest of the grocery category: Over the past twelve months, Trader Joe’s drew a median 56 visits per square foot – compared to 23 for H-E-B, the second-strongest performer.
Casual dining chain Chili’s has also been a standout on the disruptive value front this past year – offering consumers a full-service dining experience at a quick-service price point.
Chili’s launched its Big Smasher Burger on April 29th, 2024, adding the item to its popular ‘3 for Me’ offering, which includes an appetizer, entrée, and drink for just $10.99 – lower than than the average ticket at many quick-service restaurant chains. The innovative promotion, which has been further expanded since, continues to drive impressive visitation trends. With food-away-from-home inflation continuing to decelerate, this strategy of offering deep discounts is likely to continue to be a key story in 2025.
Convenience is king, right?
Well, probably not. If convenience truly were king, visitors would orient themselves to making fewer, longer visits to retailers – to minimize the inconvenience of frequent grocery trips and spend less time on the road. But analyzing the data suggests that, while consumers may want to save time, it is not always their chief concern.
Looking at the superstore and grocery segments (among others) reveals that the proportion of visitors spending under 30 minutes at the grocery store is actually increasing – from 73.3% in Q3 2019 to 76.6% in Q3 2024. This indicates that shoppers are increasingly willing to make shorter trips to the store to pick up just a few items.
At the same time, more consumers than ever are willing to travel farther to visit specialty grocery chains in the search of specific products that make the visit worthwhile.
Cross visitation between chains is also increasing – suggesting that shoppers are willing to make multiple trips to find the products they want – at the right price point. Between Q3 2023 and Q3 2024, the share of traditional grocery store visitors who also visited a Costco at least three times during the quarter grew across chains.
Does this mean convenience doesn’t matter? Of course not. Does it indicate that value, quality and a love of specific products are becoming just as, if not more, important to shoppers? Yes.
The implications here are very significant. If consumers are willing to go out of their way for the right products at the right price points – even at the expense of convenience – then the retailers able to leverage these ‘visit drivers’ will be best positioned to grow their reach considerably. The willingness of consumers to forego convenience considerations when the incentives are right also reinforces the ever-growing importance of the in-store experience.
So while convenience may still be within the royal family, the role of king is up for grabs.
Convenience may not be everything, but the drive for quicker service has emerged as more important than ever in the restaurant space. Diners want their fast food… well, as fast as possible. And to meet this demand, quick-service restaurants (QSRs) and fast-casual chains have been integrating more technology into their operations. Chipotle has been a leader in this regard, unveiling the “Autocado” robot at a Huntington Beach, California location last month. The robot can peel, pit, and chop avocados in record time, a major benefit for the Tex-Mex chain.
And the Autocado seems to be paying off. The Huntington Beach location drew 10.0% more visits compared to the average Chipotle location in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim metro area in Q3 2024. Visitors are visiting more frequently and getting their food more quickly – 43.9% of visits at this location lasted 10 minutes or less, compared to 37.5% at other stores in the CBSA.
Are diners flocking to this Chipotle location to watch the future of avocado chopping in action, or are they enticed by shorter wait times? Time will tell. But with workers able to focus on other aspects of food preparation and customer service, the innovation appears to be resonating with diners.
McDonald’s, too, has leaned into new technologies to streamline its service. The chain debuted its first (almost) fully automated, takeaway-only restaurant in White Settlement, TX in 2022 – where orders are placed at kiosks or on app, and then delivered to customers by robots. (The food is still prepared by humans.) Unsurprisingly, the restaurant drives faster visits than other local McDonald’s locations – in Q3 2023, 79.7% of visits to the chain lasted less than 10 minutes, compared to 68.5% for other McDonald’s in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX CBSA. But crucially, the automated location is also busier than other area McDonald’s, garnering 16.8% more visits in Q3 than the chain’s CBSA-wide average. And the location draws a higher share of late-night visits than other area McDonald’s – customers on the hunt for a late-night snack might be drawn to a restaurant that offers quick, interaction-free service.
Changing store formats is another key trend shaping retail in 2024. Whether by reducing box sizes to cut costs, make stores more accessible, or serve smaller growth markets – or by going big with one-stop shops, retailers are reimagining store design. And the moves are resonating with consumers, driving visits while at the same improving efficiency.
Macy’s, Inc. is one retailer that is leading the small-format charge this year. In February 2024, Macy’s announced its “Bold New Chapter” – a turnaround plan including the downsizing of its traditional eponymous department store fleet and a pivot towards smaller-format Macy’s locations. Macy’s has also continued to expand its highly-curated, small-format Bloomie’s concept, which features a mix of established and trendy pop-up brands tailored to local preferences.
And the data shows that this shift towards small format may be helping Macy’s drive visits with more accessible and targeted offerings that consumers can enjoy as they go about their daily routines: In Q3 2024, Macy’s small-format stores drew a higher share of weekday visitors and of local customers (i.e. those coming from less than seven miles away) than Macy’s traditional stores.
Small-format stores are also making inroads in the home improvement category. The past few years have seen consumers across the U.S. migrating to smaller suburban and rural markets – and retailers like Harbor Freight Tools and Ace Hardware are harnessing their small-format advantage to accommodate these customers while keeping costs low.
Harbor Freight tools and Ace Hardware’s trade areas have a high degree of overlap with some of the highest growth markets in the U.S., many of which have populations under 200K. And while it can be difficult to justify opening a Home Depot or Lowe’s in these hubs – both chains average more than 100,000 square feet per store – Harbor Freight Tools and Ace Hardware’s smaller boxes, generally under 20,000 square feet, are a perfect fit.
This has allowed both chains to tap into the smaller markets which are attracting growing shares of the population. And so while Home Depot and Lowe’s have seen moderate visits declines on a YoY basis, Harbor Freight and Ace Hardware have seen consistent YoY visit boosts since Q1 2024 – outperforming the wider category since early 2023.
Are smaller stores a better bet across the board? At the end of the day, the success of smaller-format stores depends largely on the category. For retail segments that have seen visit trends slow since the pandemic – home furnishings and consumer electronics, for example – smaller-format stores offer brands a more economical way to serve their customers. Retailers have also used smaller-format stores to better curate their merchandise assortments for their most loyal customers, helping to drive improved visit frequency.
That said, a handful of retailers, such as Hy-Vee, have recently bucked the trend of smaller-format stores. These large-format stores are often designed as destination locations – Hy-Vee’s larger-format locations usually offer a full suite of amenities beyond groceries, such as a food hall, eyewear kiosk, beauty department, and candy shop. Rather than focusing on smaller markets, these stores aim to attract visitors from surrounding areas.
Visit data for Hy-Vee’s large-format store in Gretna, Nebraska indicates that this location sees a higher percentage of weekend visits than other area locations – 37.7% compared to 33.1% for the chain’s Omaha CBSA average – as well as more visits lasting over 30 minutes (32.9% compared to 21.9% for the metro area as a whole). For these shoppers, large-format, one-stop shops offer a convenient – and perhaps more exciting – alternative to traditionally sized grocery stores. The success of the large-format stores is another sign that though convenience isn’t everything in 2024, it certainly resonates – especially when paired with added-value offerings.
Many retail brands have entrenched themselves in American culture and become an extension of consumers' identities. And while some of these previously ubiquitous brands have disappeared over the years as the retail industry evolved, others have transformed to keep pace with changing consumer needs – and some have even come back from the brink of extinction. And the quest for value notwithstanding, 2024 has also seen the resurgence of many of these (decidedly non-off-price) legacy brands.
In apparel specifically, Gap and Abercrombie & Fitch – two brands that dominated the cultural zeitgeist of the 1990s and early 2000s before seeing their popularity decline somewhat in the late aughts and 2010s – may be staging a comeback. Bed Bath & Beyond, a leader in the home goods category, is also making a play at returning to physical retail through partnerships.
Anthropologie, another legacy player in women’s fashion and home goods, is also on the rise. Anthropologie’s distinctive aesthetic resonates deeply with consumers – especially women millennials aged 30 to 45. And by capturing the hearts of its customers, the retailer stands as a beacon for retailers that can hedge against promotional activity and still drive foot traffic growth.
And visits to the chain have been rising steadily. In Q4 2023, the chain experienced a bigger holiday season foot traffic spike than pre-pandemic, drawing more overall visits than in Q4 2019. And in Q3 2024, visits were higher than in Q3 2023.
And speaking of the 35 to 40 set – the generation that all retailers are courting? Millennials. Does that sound familiar? Yes, because this is the same generational cohort that retailers tried to target a decade ago. As millennials have aged into the family-formation stage of life, their retail needs have evolved, and the industry is now primed to meet them.
From the revival of nostalgic brands like the Limited Too launch at Kohl’s to warehouse clubs expanding memberships to younger consumers as they move to suburban and rural communities, there are myriad examples of retailers reaching out to this cohort. And Sam’s Club offers a prime example of this trend.
Over the past few years, millennials and Gen-Zers have emerged as major drivers of membership growth at Sam’s Club, drawn to the retailer’s value offerings and digital upgrades – like the club’s Scan & Go technology. Over the same period, Sam’s Club has grown the share of “Singles and Starters” households in its captured market from 6% above the national benchmark in Q3 2019 to 15% in Q3 2024. And with plans to involve customers in co-creating products for its private-label brand, Sam’s Club may continue to grow its market share among this value-conscious – but also discerning and optimistic – demographic.
Millennials are also now old enough to wax nostalgic about their youth – and brands are paying attention. This summer, Taco Bell leaned into nostalgia with a promotion bringing back iconic menu items from the 60s, 70s, 80s, and 90s – all priced under $3. The promotion, which soft-launched at three Southern California locations in August, was so successful that the company is now offering the specials nationwide. The three locations that trialed the “Decades Menu” saw significant boosts in visits during the promotional period compared to their daily averages for August. And people came from far and wide to sample the offerings – with a higher proportion of visitors traveling over seven miles to reach the stores while the items were available.
Hot on the heels of a tumultuous 2023, 2024’s retail environment has certainly kept retailers on their toes. While embracing innovative value has helped some chains thrive, other previously ascendant value segments, including discount & dollar stores, may have reached their growth ceilings. Consumers clearly care about convenience – but are willing to make multiple grocery stops to find what they need. At the same time, legacy brands are plotting their comeback, while others are harnessing the power of nostalgia to drive millennials – and other consumers – through their doors.
The grocery industry has navigated unprecedented challenges in recent years – from pandemic-driven shifts in consumer behavior and supply chain disruptions to rising costs, labor shortages, and increased operational demands. In the face of these hurdles, the category has been pushed to innovate, adapting everything from product selections to shopping formats to meet changing consumer expectations.
But within the grocery industry, some segments resonate particularly strongly with the 2024 consumer. This white paper dives into the data to explore two segments that have been leading category-wide visit growth for some time: specialty and fresh format stores, which focus on produce, organic foods, and culturally specific items (think Trader Joe’s, Sprouts Farmers Market, and H Mart, to name a few), and value grocery chains like Aldi, WinCo Foods, and Grocery Outlet Bargain Market. Location analytics show shoppers are increasingly drawn to these two grocery store types, a shift that has the potential to reshape the grocery landscape.
How did value and specialty grocery chains perform in Q3 2024 in comparison to traditional supermarkets like Kroger, Albertsons, and H-E-B? How does visitor behavior vary between the three grocery segments, and what differences can be observed in the demographic and psychographic make-ups of their trade areas? The report explores these questions and more below.
The grocery industry has performed well over the past few months, with steady weekly year-over-year (YoY) visit increases throughout Q3 2024. During the week of July 1st, the segment saw a 4.6% YoY foot traffic boost, likely driven by shoppers loading up on ingredients for Independence Day barbecues and picnics. And after tapering somewhat in early August, visits picked up again in September, with YoY increases ranging from 2.0% to 2.9% throughout the month. This positive growth is a good sign for the segment – which has experienced more than its fair share of challenges over the past few years.
Though the grocery category as a whole is thriving, a closer look at different segments within the industry reveals that some are seeing more significant growth than others.
Indeed, digging deeper into grocery visits throughout Q3 2024 reveals that much of the industry’s growth is being driven by specialty and fresh format stores and value grocery chains. The two segments offer markedly different shopping experiences: Specialty chains tend to emphasize harder-to-find ingredients and fresh produce – sometimes even at higher price points than traditional grocery stores – while value grocery stores focus on affordability. But both categories are experiencing outsize visit growth in 2024, highlighting consumers’ dual interest in both quality and value.
In July and August 2024, traditional supermarkets, specialty grocers, and value chains all experienced positive YoY visit growth. But while traditional grocery stores saw a 3.1% increase in July and just a 0.9% uptick in August, value and specialty chains saw YoY growth ranging from 4.7% to 7.7% during the two months. In September 2024, YoY visits to traditional grocery stores fell by 0.5%, while value and specialty chains saw 5.0% and 5.2% increases, respectively. For today’s consumer, it seems, savings are key – but specialty offerings also resonate strongly.
Today’s grocery shoppers are increasingly embracing specialty grocery options – and analyzing consumer driving habits to grocery stores shows that they are willing to go the extra mile to reach them.
Breaking down grocery visits by distance traveled reveals that just 18.5% of visits to specialty and fresh format grocery chains came from less than one mile away in Q3 2024 – compared to 23.9% for traditional grocery stores and 23.2% for value chains. Similarly, 31.3% of visits to specialty and fresh format grocery stores originated from one to three miles away, compared to 34.7% and 34.5% for the other analyzed segments.
On the flip side, some 26.4% of visits to specialty and fresh format stores were made by people traveling at least seven miles to do their shopping – compared to 22.7% and 21.4% for traditional and value chains, respectively. Specialty grocery operators can account for this difference, locating stores in areas accessible to geographically dispersed audiences eager to shop their unique offerings.
And a look at changes in visitor behavior at three key specialty chains – Trader Joe’s, Sprouts Farmers Market, and Great Wall Supermarket – shows that even as these brands expand their footprints, customers are increasingly willing to travel the distance to visit them. Between 2019 and 2024, all three chains saw a marked increase in the share of visitors traveling over seven miles to shop their offerings. .
Asian grocery chain Great Wall Supermarket, a relatively small regional chain with some 22 locations across eight states, saw the most significant increase in visits from afar over the analyzed period. In Q3 2024, 32.3% of visits to the chain originated from seven or more miles away, up from 28.3% in Q3 2019. Ranked America’s Best Supermarket by Newsweek in 2024, the chain’s wide selection of everything from seafood to fresh produce has made it a hit among Asian food aficionados – and as the supermarket’s reputation grows, so does its draw among customers living further away from its venues.
Consumer favorite Trader Joe’s and organic grocery chain Sprouts Farmers Market also grew their shares of long-distance visits between 2019 and 2024 – no small feat for the two chains, given their expansion over the past several years.
This travel distance snapshot serves as a reminder of the unique role played by specialty grocery stores that offer their customers unique shopping experiences, premium or organic products, and culturally specific items. Shoppers will go out of their way to travel to these stores – and even as they expand and become more readily accessible, their growing popularity makes them ever-more attractive destinations for customers coming from further away.
While visitors to specialty grocery chains often travel long distances for unique offerings, cost-conscious consumers at value stores exhibit other behaviors that differentiate them from traditional and specialty grocery shoppers.
The rising cost of living has pushed the discount retail segment into overdrive – and value grocery chains are also benefiting. The category has flourished in recent years, with many bargain-oriented grocery chains adding new stores at a rapid clip to meet burgeoning consumer demand.
Like visitors to specialty grocery chains, value grocery shoppers demonstrate segment-specific behaviors that reflect their preferences and habits. And perhaps most strikingly, foot traffic data reveals that these shoppers tend to stay longer in-store than visitors to traditional and specialty grocery chains.
In Q3 2024, 26.5% of visits to value grocery chains lasted longer than 30 minutes, compared to 23.4% for traditional grocery chains and 23.7% for specialty and fresh format chains. This suggests that these stores attract shoppers who take their time and carefully consider price points, looking for the best value for their dollar – a need that the chains they frequent seem to be meeting.
Given the tremendous success of the value grocery space in recent years, it may come as no surprise that some traditional supermarkets are getting in on the action by opening or expanding discount banners of their own. How do such off-shoot banners impact these grocers’ reach?
Cult-favorite Texas grocery chain H-E-B opened the first branch of its value banner, Joe V’s Smart Shop, in 2010. The discount arm currently includes 11 stores – mainly in the Houston area – with several new stores opening, or in planning stages, in Dallas.
And foot traffic data shows that Joe V's attracts mission-driven shoppers who make less frequent but significantly longer trips than visitors to traditional grocery stores. In Q3 2024, the average visit duration at Joe V’s was 37.8 minutes, compared to just 26.8 minutes at H-E-B – a full 11 minute difference. At the same time, while 38.5% of Q3 visits to H-E-B were made by customers frequenting the chain, on average, at least four times a month, just 11.8% of visits to Joe V’s were made by visitors reaching that threshold.
Joe V’s is also more likely than H-E-B to attract parental households, with 36.8% of its captured market made up of households with children – significantly higher than H-E-B’s 32.0%.
Together, these data points paint a picture of the average Joe V’s shopper: cost-conscious, likely to have children, and inclined to carefully plan shopping trips to maximize savings and cut down on grocery runs. This suggests that they are mission-driven and focused on stocking up rather than running out to grab ingredients as the need arises.
Major grocery store operators often operate a variety of store types at different price points to appeal to as many shoppers as possible, and Hy-Vee is no exception. The regional grocery favorite launched a discount chain, Dollar Fresh, in 2018 and currently operates 25 stores under that banner, aiming to attract middle-class, cost-conscious shoppers.
Using Experian’s Mosaic dataset to analyze Dollar Fresh’s trade area reveals that the chain’s captured market features significantly higher shares of lower-middle-class family consumers than its potential one – highlighting its special draw for these shoppers. (A chain’s potential market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to population size, thus reflecting the overall makeup of the chain’s trade area. A business’ captured market, on the other hand, is obtained by weighting each CBG according to its share of visits to the chain in question – and thus represents the profile of its actual visitor base. Comparing a chain’s captured market to its potential one can serve as a helpful gauge of the brand’s success at attracting key audience segments.)
In Q3 2024, the “Pastoral Pride” family segment represented 11.4% of Dollar Fresh’s captured market, compared to just 5.3% of its potential market. This over-representation of lower-middle-class consumers from small towns in Dollar Fresh’s captured market indicates that the chain is especially effective at drawing customers that belong to this segment. Though Hy-Vee’s captured market also boasted a higher share of this demographic than its potential one in Q3, the difference was much smaller – and the chain’s overall reach among these consumers was more limited.
In contrast, Hy-Vee excels at attracting “Flourishing Families” – affluent, middle-aged families and couples – who made up 10.3% of the supermarket’s captured market in Q3 2024. Dollar Fresh’s captured market, on the other hand, featured a smaller share of this segment than its potential one – showing that the discount chain is of less interest to these consumers. So while Hy-Vee tends to appeal to higher-income families with more spending flexibility, value-conscious shoppers have been making their way to Dollar Fresh.
This audience segmentation analysis shows how value offerings help grocery chains attract wider audiences – and highlights the advantage of operating multiple store types to appeal to a broader range of shoppers.
People will always need access to a variety of fresh foods – ensuring that grocery stores and supermarkets continue to play a vital role in in the retail landscape. And while the category as a whole has continued to thrive even in today’s challenging environment, specialty and value grocery chains resonate particularly strongly with the 2024 consumer. As grocery retailers diversify their formats, those aligning with consumer preferences for affordability, uniqueness, and quality are well-positioned for continued growth.
Malls have come a long way since their introduction to the world in the 1950s. These gleaming retail hubs promised shoppers a taste of the American dream, offering a third place for teens, families, and everyone in between to shop, socialize, and hang out.
And though malls have faced challenges in recent years, as e-commerce and pandemic-induced store closures led to shifts in consumer habits, the outlook is brightening. Malls have embraced innovation, incorporating enhanced entertainment, dining, and experiential offerings that attract a diverse range of visitors and redefine their purpose.
This white paper takes a look at the recent location intelligence metrics to gain an understanding of the changes taking place at malls across the country – including both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers. The report explores questions like: Why do malls experience foot traffic bumps during the summer months? How much of an impact do movie theaters have on mall visits, and what can mall operators learn from the Mall of America and American Dream malls’ focus on experiential entertainment?
Mall visitation is highly seasonal, with strikingly consistent monthly visitation patterns. Each year, visits decline somewhat in February, pick up in March, and begin to trend upward again in May – before peaking again in August. Then, after a slower September and October, foot traffic skyrockets during the holiday season, spiking dramatically in December.
And while these trends follow similar patterns every year, comparing monthly visits throughout 2019, 2023, and 2024 (YTD) to each year’s own January baseline shows that this seasonality is growing more pronounced - especially for indoor malls.
Following a lackluster 2023, visits to both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers peaked higher in March 2024 than in 2019. And this summer, indoor malls in particular saw a much larger visit boost than in previous years. In August 2024, for example, visits to indoor malls were 27.3% higher than in January 2024 – a substantially higher baseline jump than that seen either in August 2019 (17.0%) or in August 2023 (12.0%). And though open-air shopping centers experienced a smaller summer visit boost, they too saw a bigger bump this year than in 2019 or in 2023.
But malls aren’t just seeing larger visit spikes this year relative to their January baselines – they are also drawing bigger crowds than they did in 2023.
Between June and August 2024, indoor malls and open-air shopping centers both experienced year-over-year (YoY) visit growth. Indoor malls saw the largest YoY foot traffic boost (3.7%) – perhaps owing in part to 2024’s record-breaking heat, which led many patrons to seek refuge in air conditioned spaces. Still, open-air shopping centers, which feature plenty of air conditioned stores and restaurants, also enjoyed a YoY visit boost of 2.8% during the analyzed period.
Malls’ strong summer baseline and YoY foot traffic growth built upon the strong performance seen during most of 2024 so far, leading to the question: What is driving malls’ positive momentum? We delve into some of the factors propelling these changes below.
One offering that continues to play a significant role in driving foot traffic to malls is on-site movie theaters. Summer blockbuster releases, in particular, help attract crowds to theaters, in turn boosting overall visits to malls.
Much like malls, movie theaters have also proven their resilience over the past few years. While pundits fretted about the theater’s impending death, production houses were busy releasing blockbuster after blockbuster and shattering box-office records at an impressive clip. And while 2023 was certainly a banner year for blockbuster summer releases, 2024 has had its fair share of stunning box-office successes, leading to major visit boosts at theaters across the country.
Analyzing visits to malls with and without movie theaters highlights the impact of these summer Hollywood hits. Between June and August 2024, malls with theaters saw bigger visit boosts compared to a monthly year-to-date (YTD) average than malls without – an effect observed both for indoor malls and for open-air shopping centers.
For both mall types, the gap between centers with and without movie theaters was most pronounced in July 2024, likely owing to the release of Inside Out 2 in mid-June as well as the July releases of Deadpool & Wolverine and Twister. But in June and August 2024, too, centers with movie theaters sustained particularly impressive visit boosts – a solid sign that movie theaters and malls remain a winning combination.
Malls with movie theaters also drew higher shares of evening visits (7:00 PM - 10:00 PM) this summer than those without. Between June and August 2024, for example, evening outings accounted for 22.9% of visits to open-air shopping centers with movie theaters – compared to 18.2% of visits to centers without theaters. Indoor malls with theaters also saw a larger share of evening visits than those without – 18.1% compared to 15.0%.
This increase in evening traffic is likely driven by major summer movie releases and the flexibility of summer schedules, with many visitors – including families – taking advantage of late-night outings without the concern of early wakeup calls. These summer visitation trends benefit both theaters and malls, opening up opportunities for increased sales through concessions, promotions, and evening deals that attract a more relaxed and engaged crowd.
Analyzing the demographics of malls’ captured markets also reveals that centers with movie theaters are more likely to attract certain family-oriented segments than those without. (A mall’s captured market consists of the mall’s trade areas – the census block groups (CBGs) feeding visitors to the mall – weighted according to each CBG’s actual share of visits to the mall.)
Between June and August 2024, for example, 14.2% of the captured markets of open-air shopping centers with movie theaters were made up of “Wealthy Suburban Families” – compared to 9.7% for open-air shopping centers without theaters.
Indoor malls saw a similar pattern with regard to “Near-Urban Diverse Families”: Middle class families living in and around cities made up 9.0% of the captured markets of indoor malls with movie theaters, compared to 7.1% of the captured markets of those without.
This increase in foot traffic from middle-class and wealthy family segments can be a boon for malls and retail tenants – driving up food court profits and bolstering sales at stores with kid-friendly offerings.
Malls have long positioned themselves as destinations for summer entertainment as well as retail therapy, holding – in addition to back to school sales – events like Fourth of July celebrations and even indoor basketball and arena football games. And during the summer months, malls attract visitors from further away.
Between June and August 2024, indoor malls drew 18.2% of visitors from 30+ miles away – compared to just 16.7% during the first five months of the year. Similarly, open-air shopping centers drew 19.6% of visits from 30+ miles away during the summer, compared to 17.1% between January and May.
Extended daylight hours, summer trips away from home, and more free time are likely among the contributors to the summer draw for long-distance mall visitors. But in addition to their classic offerings – from movie theaters to stores and food courts – malls have also invested in other kinds of unique experiences to attract visitors. This next section takes a look at two mega-malls winning at the visitation game, to see what sets them apart.
The Minneapolis-based Mall of America opened in 1992, redefining the limits of what a mall could offer. The mall boasts hundreds of stores, games, rides, and more – and is constantly expanding its attractions, cementing its status as a top destination for retail and entertainment.
Between June and August 2024, Mall of America experienced a 13.8% YoY visit increase, far outperforming the 3.7% visit boost seen by the wider indoor mall space. And as a major tourist attraction – the mall hosted a series of Olympic-themed events throughout the summer – it also drew 41.6% of visits from 30+ miles away. This share of distant visitors was significantly higher than that seen at the mall during the first five months of 2024, and more than double the segment-wide summer average of 18.2%.
The Mall of America also seems to be attracting more upper-middle-class families during the summer than other indoor malls: Between June and August 2024, some 18.0% of Mall of America’s captured market consisted of “Upper Suburban Diverse Family Households” – a segment including upper-middle-class suburbanites – compared to just 11.1% for the wider indoor mall segment. The increased presence of these families at the Mall of America may be driven by the variety of events offered during the summer.
In 2019, the American Dream Mall in New Jersey opened and became the second-largest mall in the country. Since the mall opened its doors, it has also focused on blending retail and entertainment to draw in as wide a range of visitors as possible – and summer 2024 was no exception.
The mall hosted the Arena Football League Championship, ArenaBowl XXXIII, on Friday, July 19th. The event successfully attracted a higher share of visitors traveling from 30+ miles away compared to the average summer Friday – 35.4% compared to 25.7%.
Visits to the mall on the day of the championship were also 13.6% higher than the Friday visit average for the period between June and August 2024, showcasing the mall’s ability to draw in crowds by hosting major events.
Malls – both indoor and open-air – continue to evolve while playing a central role in the American retail landscape. Increasingly, malls are emerging as destinations for more than just shopping – especially during the summer – driving up foot traffic and attracting visitors from near and far. And while much is often said about the impact of holiday seasons on mall foot traffic, summer months offer another opportunity to boost mall visits. Malls that can curate experiences that resonate with their clientele can hope to see foot traffic growth – in the summer months and beyond.
