.svg)
In September 2024, Placer.ai released two white papers: The Healthcare Opportunity in Grocery and Pricing Strategies Driving Restaurant Visits in 2024. Below is a taste of our findings from The Healthcare Opportunity in Grocery – which dove into the data to explore the impact that wellness offerings can have on grocery store visitation patterns.
Today, many grocery stores offer a range of services – from primary and urgent care to dental and mental health care. In addition to providing an important community service, in-store clinics can boost foot traffic at chains, help health providers reach more patients, and allow shoppers to manage their health and home needs in one convenient trip.
Analyzing foot traffic to grocery stores with and without in-store clinics shows that across chains, locations with on-site healthcare offerings drew more visits in H1 2024 than their chain-wide averages.
The Kroger Co., for example, has been a leader in in-store healthcare services since the early aughts. The company introduced its in-store medical center, The Little Clinic in 2003 – and today operates over 225 Little Clinic locations across its Kroger banner, as well as regional chains Dillons, Jay C Food Stores, Fry’s, and King Soopers.
And in H1 2024, the eight Dillons locations with clinics saw, on average, 93.0% more visits per location than the chain’s banner-wide average. Jay C, which offers two in-store clinics, also saw visits to these venues outpace the H1 2024 banner-wide average by 92.9%. For both chains, relatively small overall footprints may contribute to their outsize visit differences: Indiana-focused Jay C operates just 22 locations, all in the Hoosier State, while Kansas-based Dillons has some 64 locations.
But similar patterns, if somewhat less pronounced, could be observed at Kroger (43.0%), Fry’s (19.2%), and King Soopers (16.5%) – as well as at H-E-B (14.5%), which boasts its own expanding network of in-store clinics.
An analysis of household compositions across the potential and captured markets of Kroger-owned stores with and without Little Clinic offerings suggests that families with children are extremely receptive to these services.
In H1 2024, Kroger, King Soopers, Fry’s, Jay C, and Dillons all featured captured markets with higher shares of STI: PopStats’ “Households With Children” segment than their potential ones – highlighting the chains’ appeal for families. But the share of parental households in those stores with Little Clinics jumped significantly higher for all five banners.
The share of families with children in King Soopers’ overall captured market stood at 28.3% in H1 2024, higher than the 27.2% in its potential one. But the households with children in the captured markets of King Soopers locations with Little Clinics was significantly higher – 30.6% – and similar patterns emerged at Jay C, Dillons, Kroger, and Fry’s.
This special draw is likely linked to the clinics' focus on family health services like physicals, nutrition plans, and vaccines. The convenience of being able to take care of healthcare, grocery shopping, and pharmacy needs all in one go makes these stores particularly attractive to parents. And this jump in foot traffic shows the strategic advantage of incorporating healthcare services into the retail environment.
Read the full report here to learn more about the impact of healthcare services on grocery visits and customer loyalty. Are shoppers more or less likely to make repeat visits to grocery stores with healthcare services? And how does the addition of a clinic affect the demographic profile of a grocery store’s captured market?
For more data-driven consumer research, visit our resource library.
2024 has been a good year for fast-casual restaurants. Limited-time offers notwithstanding, rising QSR prices have narrowed the price gap between fast food and the more premium offerings of chains like Chipotle and sweetgreen. And with many fast-casual restaurants upping their convenience games with drive-thrus and other innovations, the distinction between the two segments has become increasingly muddied.
So with summer winding down, we dove into the data to explore segment-level consumer behavior at quick-service and fast-casual restaurants. How are they performing this year? And do consumers still interact differently with the two categories?
We dove into the data to find out.
During the first half of 2024, fast-casual restaurants experienced 3.2% year-over-year (YoY) visit growth, while QSR held steady with a minor 0.4% uptick. As QSR favorites have gotten pricier, some budget-conscious diners have responded by trading up – embracing elevated fast-casual experiences that hit the sweet spot between quality and affordability.
Drilling down deeper into the data, however, paints a more nuanced picture. On weekends, both QSRs and fast-casual chains experienced positive YoY visit growth (2.1% and 4.0%, respectively) – a significant difference, but not a tremendous one. On their days off, it seems, Americans are opting for a variety of value-oriented indulgences, and both segments are benefiting.
But on weekdays, fast-casual foot traffic grew by 2.8%, while QSR visits declined slightly by 0.2%. As the return-to-office (RTO) continues apace, more affluent office workers may be driving a weekday fast-casual renaissance.
A look at driving distances to QSR and fast-casual restaurants provides further evidence that commuters may be contributing to fast-casual’s weekday YoY visit growth.
In H1 2024, a higher share of QSR visits came from customers hailing from CBGs less than two miles away from the restaurants – suggesting that QSR visitors were more likely to frequent local, neighborhood venues. Meanwhile, a significantly higher percentage of fast-casual visits (63.6%) originated from CBGs between two and 30 miles away, compared to just 56.8% for QSR. These less-local visitors may be stopping by a fast-casual establishment during their lunch break or after work, on days when they commute to the office.
Interestingly, QSRs and fast-casual restaurants drew similar shares of visitors from CBGs more than 30 miles away – perhaps suggesting that when traveling, consumers enjoy frequenting both segments.
Given fast-casual’s higher-quality offerings, it may come as no surprise that these chains tend to attract a more affluent clientele than their QSR counterparts. During the first half of 2024, the Census Block Groups (CBGs) feeding visitors to QSRs (i.e. their captured market) had a weighted median household income (HHI) of $65.7K – compared to $78.0K for fast-casual chains.
But medians only tell a part of the story – and a closer look at the segments’ visitor bases reveals a striking similarity between them: In H1 2024, the two categories’ captured markets featured nearly equal shares of a key demographic – households earning between $75K and $100K per year. This group includes both average-income families and those with a bit more money to spend. (According to STI:PopStats, the nationwide median HHI stands at $76.1K). And the ability of both quick-service restaurants and fast-casual chains to attract these consumers shows that despite their differences, the two segments do overlap – and both have plenty to offer today’s consumers.
Despite still-high prices, consumers are finding room in their budgets for affordable splurges – and fast-casual restaurants and QSRs (at least on weekends) are benefiting. How will the two segments continue to fare in the upcoming holiday season? And will their demographic middle ground expand as the line between the two categories continues to blur?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven restaurant analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Walmart-owned Sam’s Club has been investing in its own independent retail media network (RMN) – Sam’s Club Members Access Platform (MAP) – for quite some time. This past summer, the RMN launched opt-in display ads in the “Scan & Go” self-checkout feature on the Sam’s Club mobile app, turning any mobile device into an in-club media channel for the chain.
We dove into the latest location analytics for Sam’s Club to understand how in-store foot traffic could drive the success of Scan & Go ads in the chain’s largest markets.
Scan & Go aims to enhance the shopping experience by suggesting product pairings for already-scanned items. The feature’s high adoption rate and frequent usage among Sam’s Club members contributes to its potential as a highly successful advertising channel. And location data indicates that the feature has the ability to attract a growing number of eyeballs.
Nationwide, Sam’s Club drew 5.1% more unique visitors during the first eight months of 2024, and 6.2% more overall visits, than in the equivalent period of 2023. In Texas, the state with the most Sam’s Club locations, the chain saw even more impressive year-over-year (YoY) unique visitor (6.9%) and visit (7.9%) growth – which could add to the appeal of advertising through Scan & Go in the Lone Star State. Meanwhile, Florida – Sam’s Club’s second-biggest market – saw YoY visit and unique visitor growth slightly below the nationwide baseline. But in the Sunshine State, too, the chain saw significant YoY jumps in visits and unique visitors – and experienced longer average dwell time than the chain’s nationwide average.
Diving into the audience segmentation of Sam’s Club’s trade areas in Texas and Florida reveals how each state offers a unique advertising opportunity to the brand’s retail media partners.
Between September 2023 and August 2024, the Sam’s Club’s Texas captured market had a higher share of families with children (31.1%) than its Florida one (24.7%), highlighting the chain’s greater reach among this demographic in the Lone Star State. But parental households are generally more common in Texas than Florida – and while Sam’s Club’s Texas markets were under-indexed for this demographic compared to the statewide baseline, the chain’s Florida markets were over-indexed for it compared to the Sunshine State’s lower baseline. So for advertisers seeking to reach Florida households with children, Sam’s Club offers a particularly enticing opportunity to do so.
Meanwhile, Sam’s Club’s Texas captured market featured a higher share of “Near-Urban Diverse Families” (8.6%) than the statewide baseline of 6.2%, while the brand’s Florida market had a slightly smaller share of the segment (6.2%) than the statewide baseline (7.3%). Texas Sam’s Club locations, it seems, offer more focused access to this demographic – both in absolute terms, and in relation to statewide baselines.
Looking closely at weekly visitation patterns to Sam’s Club in Texas and Florida provides further insight into the ideal timing for engagement with the brand’s RMN.
Between September 2023 and August 2024, the busiest days at Sam’s Club in both Florida and Texas were Saturdays and Sundays. However, Texas locations had a greater share of its weekend visits between 4:00 PM and 6:00 PM, while Florida saw a greater share of its weekend traffic between 10:00 AM and 1:00 PM.
An understanding of these patterns could help advertisers and Sam’s Club predict the potential for Scan & Go usership at specific times – offering insight into strategies and pricing methods that account for peak visitation times.
At present, Scan & Go display ads are available at all Sam’s Club’s stores, but only to select members – which means the potential engagement and revenue streams driven by the new feature have yet to be fully realized. And as Scan & Go display ads achieve success, the chain may explore additional enhancements to its multi-channel RMN.
For updates and more retail foot traffic insights, visit Placer.ai.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
The COVID-19 pandemic – and the subsequent shift to remote work – has fundamentally redefined where and how people live and work, creating new opportunities for smaller cities to thrive.
But where are relocators going in 2024 – and what are they looking for? This post dives into the data for several CBSAs with populations ranging from 500K to 2.5 million that have seen positive net domestic migration over the past several years – where population inflow outpaces outflow. Who is moving to these hubs, and what is drawing them?
The past few years have seen a shift in where people are moving. While major metropolitan areas like New York still attract newcomers, smaller cities, which offer a balance of affordability, livability, and career opportunities, are becoming attractive alternatives for those looking to relocate.
Between July 2020 and July 2024, for example, the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX CBSA, saw net domestic migration of 3.6% – not surprising, given the city of Austin’s ranking among U.S. News and World Report’s top places to live in 2024-5. Raleigh-Cary, NC, which also made the list, experienced net population inflow of 2.6%. And other metro areas, including Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR (3.3%), Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA (1.4%), Oklahoma City, OK (1.1%), and Madison, WI (0.6%) have seen more domestic relocators moving in than out over the past four years.
All of these CBSAs have also continued to see positive net migration over the past 12 months – highlighting their continued appeal into 2024.
What is driving domestic migration to these hubs? While these metropolitan areas span various regions of the country, they share a common characteristic: They all attract residents coming, on average, from CBSAs with younger and less affluent populations.
Between July 2020 and July 2024, for example, relocators to high-income Raleigh, NC – where the median household income (HHI) stands at $84K – tended to hail from CBSAs with a significantly lower weighted median HHI ($66.9K). Similarly, those moving to Austin, TX – where the median HHI is $85.4K – tended to come from regions with a median HHI of $69.9K. This pattern suggests that these cities offer newcomers an aspirational leap in both career and financial prospects.
Moreover, most of these CBSAs are drawing residents with a younger weighted median age than that of their existing residents, reinforcing their appeal as destinations for those still establishing and growing their careers. Des Moines and Oklahoma City, in particular, saw the largest gaps between the median age of newcomers and that of the existing population.
Career opportunities and affordable housing are major drivers of migration, and data from Niche’s Neighborhood Grades suggests that these CBSAs attract newcomers due to their strong performance in both areas. All of the analyzed CBSAs had better "Jobs" and "Housing" grades compared to the regions from which people migrated. For example, Austin, Texas received the highest "Jobs" rating with an A-, while most new arrivals came from areas where the "Jobs" grade was a B.
While the other analyzed CBSAs showed smaller improvements in job ratings, the combination of improvements in both “Jobs” and “Housing” make them appealing destinations for those seeking better economic opportunities and affordability.
Young professionals may be more open than ever to living in smaller metro areas, offering opportunities for cities like Austin and Raleigh to thrive. And the demographic analysis of newcomers to these CBSAs underscores their appeal to individuals seeking job opportunities and upward mobility.
Will these CBSAs continue to attract newcomers and cement their status as vibrant, opportunity-rich hubs for young professionals? And how will this new mix of population impact these growing markets?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven civic news.
With summer and back-to-school shopping in the rearview mirror, we dove into the data to check in with a major player on the retail scene – warehouse favorite Costco. How has the chain been faring this year, and what can Costco’s visitation patterns tell us about what lies ahead for it during the all-important fourth quarter of the year?
We dove into the data to find out.
Costco’s wholesale club model seems like it was tailor made for the 2024 consumer. Though prices aren’t rising as rapidly as they did last year, consumers remain eager to cut costs, embracing retailers that allow them to load up on essentials while indulging in affordable splurges that don’t break the bank. And Costco, which provides customers with steep discounts on everything from bulk cereals to patio furniture, is reaping the benefits.
Since January 2024, Costco has enjoyed consistently positive year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic growth, outpacing the wider Superstore and Wholesale Club category every month of 2024 so far. Even in January, when retail visits nationwide were severely dampened by unusually cold and stormy weather, Costco saw YoY visits increase by 5.2% – a remarkable accomplishment.
Why is Costco resonating so strongly with consumers this year? One factor may be the unique blend of mission-driven shopping and treasure hunting offered by the membership club. Costco is all about bulk buying – and when people head out to the wholesaler, they expect to come back with a massive haul of canned goods and pantry staples. But with oft-changing inventory and ubiquitous free samples, Costco also offers a fun shopping experience that encourages customers to try new items and make unexpected purchases as they cruise the aisles.
So it may come as no surprise that people spend much longer browsing the aisles at Costco than they do at other superstores and wholesale clubs. And while competitors like Target, Walmart, and BJ’s Wholesale have seen slight drops in their average dwell times over the past three years, Costco’s average dwell time has remained considerably longer – and remarkably steady.
Costco also drives visits by leaning into special calendar days. Unlike some other retailers, Costco closes its doors on most major holidays, including Memorial Day and Labor Day. But the chain still offers major discounts on the days leading up to and following these special days, driving heightened interest – and foot traffic.
Comparing visits on Tuesday, September 3rd – the day after Labor Day – to a year-to-date (YTD) daily average highlights the power of holiday sales, as well as pent-up demand following the store’s closure, to drive traffic to Costco. September 3rd was Costco’s second-busiest Tuesday of the year so far (up 23.8% compared to a YTD Tuesday average) – outpaced only by the pre-Independence Day July 2nd frenzy. May 28th, the day after Memorial Day, was also unusually busy at Costco, as customers rushed to take advantage of Memorial Day markdowns that lasted well into the following week.
In another sign of Costco’s robust positioning ahead of the all-important Black Friday and Christmas shopping season, visits to Costco on the Tuesday after Labor Day this year (Tuesday, September 3rd, 2024) were 6.1% higher this year than in 2023 (Tuesday, September 5th, 2023).
Costco’s visitation patterns showcase a brand that is positively thriving in 2024. And though it may be too soon to assess the impact of the membership chain’s recent fee hike, the warehouse chain appears poised to enjoy a robust November and December holiday season.
Follow our blog at Placer.ai to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Visits to the home improvement segment thrived during the pandemic, then slowed as high interest rates and rising prices led many consumers to defer big projects. But paint and coating giant Sherwin-Williams has displayed a special resilience, driving visits in what remains a challenging environment for the category.
With prime relocation season winding down, we dove into the foot traffic and audience segmentation data for the chain to uncover the trends that might be behind Sherwin-Williams’ recent success.
Paint and coating giant Sherwin-Williams Company is having a moment. After reporting stronger-than-expected earnings last quarter, the company raised its full-year outlook for 2024. And foot traffic to the company’s eponymous chain, where many of its products are sold exclusively, has been on an upswing.
Since the start of the year, Sherwin-Williams has seen consistently more robust visit growth than the wider home improvement segment compared to an August 2019 baseline – except in May 2024, when home improvement stores see their biggest annual visits spikes. In August 2024, visits to Sherwin-Williams were up 12.4% compared to an August 2019 baseline, while the broader category saw a minor decline of 2.1%.
According to a recent report by Sherwin-Williams management, the company has been outpacing the home improvement category in sales related to new residential projects. And with new home sales beginning to pick up steam, they could be playing a role in Sherwin-Williams’ recent visit surge.
Sherwin-Williams’ outsized August visit growth may also be due in part to its unique seasonal visit patterns. While home improvement chains usually enjoy a major spring foot traffic spike in May, as consumers take on fair-weather projects, Sherwin-Williams sees more prolonged visit boosts lasting throughout the spring and summer – and since 2023 has experienced pronounced upticks in May and August. As a paint store, Sherwin-Williams likely benefits from summer relocations – the period between mid-May and mid-September is the most popular time for moves in the U.S., which often require residences to be repainted.
Diving deeper into the segmentation of Sherwin-Williams’ customer base reveals another factor that could be behind the company’s recent success.
Analyzing Sherwin-Williams’ potential market with data from STI: PopStats shows that the chain is positioned to serve average-income consumers, with median household incomes (HHIs) just under the nationwide baseline of $76.1K. But though the median HHI of Sherwin-Williams’ potential market declined slightly over the past several years, the median HHI of its captured market has increased. (A chain’s potential market refers to its overall trade area, weighted to reflect the size of each Census Block Group (CBG) therein. A chain’s captured market, on the other hand, is obtained by weighting each CBG according to its share of visits to the chain in question, and thus reflects the characteristics of the chain’s actual visitor base.)
This indicates that Sherwin-Williams is doing an especially good job this year at driving traffic from areas within its markets that feature larger shares of higher-income residents – those likely to be moving into a new home or renovating.
Will Sherwin-Williams’ impressive foot traffic growth continue in the months ahead? If shelter inflation indeed eases, as some analysts suspect, more consumers may be inclined to repaint their homes or upgrade their living situation altogether – driving even more demand for the brand.
For updates and more retail foot traffic insights, visit Placer.ai.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
The grocery industry has navigated unprecedented challenges in recent years – from pandemic-driven shifts in consumer behavior and supply chain disruptions to rising costs, labor shortages, and increased operational demands. In the face of these hurdles, the category has been pushed to innovate, adapting everything from product selections to shopping formats to meet changing consumer expectations.
But within the grocery industry, some segments resonate particularly strongly with the 2024 consumer. This white paper dives into the data to explore two segments that have been leading category-wide visit growth for some time: specialty and fresh format stores, which focus on produce, organic foods, and culturally specific items (think Trader Joe’s, Sprouts Farmers Market, and H Mart, to name a few), and value grocery chains like Aldi, WinCo Foods, and Grocery Outlet Bargain Market. Location analytics show shoppers are increasingly drawn to these two grocery store types, a shift that has the potential to reshape the grocery landscape.
How did value and specialty grocery chains perform in Q3 2024 in comparison to traditional supermarkets like Kroger, Albertsons, and H-E-B? How does visitor behavior vary between the three grocery segments, and what differences can be observed in the demographic and psychographic make-ups of their trade areas? The report explores these questions and more below.
The grocery industry has performed well over the past few months, with steady weekly year-over-year (YoY) visit increases throughout Q3 2024. During the week of July 1st, the segment saw a 4.6% YoY foot traffic boost, likely driven by shoppers loading up on ingredients for Independence Day barbecues and picnics. And after tapering somewhat in early August, visits picked up again in September, with YoY increases ranging from 2.0% to 2.9% throughout the month. This positive growth is a good sign for the segment – which has experienced more than its fair share of challenges over the past few years.
Though the grocery category as a whole is thriving, a closer look at different segments within the industry reveals that some are seeing more significant growth than others.
Indeed, digging deeper into grocery visits throughout Q3 2024 reveals that much of the industry’s growth is being driven by specialty and fresh format stores and value grocery chains. The two segments offer markedly different shopping experiences: Specialty chains tend to emphasize harder-to-find ingredients and fresh produce – sometimes even at higher price points than traditional grocery stores – while value grocery stores focus on affordability. But both categories are experiencing outsize visit growth in 2024, highlighting consumers’ dual interest in both quality and value.
In July and August 2024, traditional supermarkets, specialty grocers, and value chains all experienced positive YoY visit growth. But while traditional grocery stores saw a 3.1% increase in July and just a 0.9% uptick in August, value and specialty chains saw YoY growth ranging from 4.7% to 7.7% during the two months. In September 2024, YoY visits to traditional grocery stores fell by 0.5%, while value and specialty chains saw 5.0% and 5.2% increases, respectively. For today’s consumer, it seems, savings are key – but specialty offerings also resonate strongly.
Today’s grocery shoppers are increasingly embracing specialty grocery options – and analyzing consumer driving habits to grocery stores shows that they are willing to go the extra mile to reach them.
Breaking down grocery visits by distance traveled reveals that just 18.5% of visits to specialty and fresh format grocery chains came from less than one mile away in Q3 2024 – compared to 23.9% for traditional grocery stores and 23.2% for value chains. Similarly, 31.3% of visits to specialty and fresh format grocery stores originated from one to three miles away, compared to 34.7% and 34.5% for the other analyzed segments.
On the flip side, some 26.4% of visits to specialty and fresh format stores were made by people traveling at least seven miles to do their shopping – compared to 22.7% and 21.4% for traditional and value chains, respectively. Specialty grocery operators can account for this difference, locating stores in areas accessible to geographically dispersed audiences eager to shop their unique offerings.
And a look at changes in visitor behavior at three key specialty chains – Trader Joe’s, Sprouts Farmers Market, and Great Wall Supermarket – shows that even as these brands expand their footprints, customers are increasingly willing to travel the distance to visit them. Between 2019 and 2024, all three chains saw a marked increase in the share of visitors traveling over seven miles to shop their offerings. .
Asian grocery chain Great Wall Supermarket, a relatively small regional chain with some 22 locations across eight states, saw the most significant increase in visits from afar over the analyzed period. In Q3 2024, 32.3% of visits to the chain originated from seven or more miles away, up from 28.3% in Q3 2019. Ranked America’s Best Supermarket by Newsweek in 2024, the chain’s wide selection of everything from seafood to fresh produce has made it a hit among Asian food aficionados – and as the supermarket’s reputation grows, so does its draw among customers living further away from its venues.
Consumer favorite Trader Joe’s and organic grocery chain Sprouts Farmers Market also grew their shares of long-distance visits between 2019 and 2024 – no small feat for the two chains, given their expansion over the past several years.
This travel distance snapshot serves as a reminder of the unique role played by specialty grocery stores that offer their customers unique shopping experiences, premium or organic products, and culturally specific items. Shoppers will go out of their way to travel to these stores – and even as they expand and become more readily accessible, their growing popularity makes them ever-more attractive destinations for customers coming from further away.
While visitors to specialty grocery chains often travel long distances for unique offerings, cost-conscious consumers at value stores exhibit other behaviors that differentiate them from traditional and specialty grocery shoppers.
The rising cost of living has pushed the discount retail segment into overdrive – and value grocery chains are also benefiting. The category has flourished in recent years, with many bargain-oriented grocery chains adding new stores at a rapid clip to meet burgeoning consumer demand.
Like visitors to specialty grocery chains, value grocery shoppers demonstrate segment-specific behaviors that reflect their preferences and habits. And perhaps most strikingly, foot traffic data reveals that these shoppers tend to stay longer in-store than visitors to traditional and specialty grocery chains.
In Q3 2024, 26.5% of visits to value grocery chains lasted longer than 30 minutes, compared to 23.4% for traditional grocery chains and 23.7% for specialty and fresh format chains. This suggests that these stores attract shoppers who take their time and carefully consider price points, looking for the best value for their dollar – a need that the chains they frequent seem to be meeting.
Given the tremendous success of the value grocery space in recent years, it may come as no surprise that some traditional supermarkets are getting in on the action by opening or expanding discount banners of their own. How do such off-shoot banners impact these grocers’ reach?
Cult-favorite Texas grocery chain H-E-B opened the first branch of its value banner, Joe V’s Smart Shop, in 2010. The discount arm currently includes 11 stores – mainly in the Houston area – with several new stores opening, or in planning stages, in Dallas.
And foot traffic data shows that Joe V's attracts mission-driven shoppers who make less frequent but significantly longer trips than visitors to traditional grocery stores. In Q3 2024, the average visit duration at Joe V’s was 37.8 minutes, compared to just 26.8 minutes at H-E-B – a full 11 minute difference. At the same time, while 38.5% of Q3 visits to H-E-B were made by customers frequenting the chain, on average, at least four times a month, just 11.8% of visits to Joe V’s were made by visitors reaching that threshold.
Joe V’s is also more likely than H-E-B to attract parental households, with 36.8% of its captured market made up of households with children – significantly higher than H-E-B’s 32.0%.
Together, these data points paint a picture of the average Joe V’s shopper: cost-conscious, likely to have children, and inclined to carefully plan shopping trips to maximize savings and cut down on grocery runs. This suggests that they are mission-driven and focused on stocking up rather than running out to grab ingredients as the need arises.
Major grocery store operators often operate a variety of store types at different price points to appeal to as many shoppers as possible, and Hy-Vee is no exception. The regional grocery favorite launched a discount chain, Dollar Fresh, in 2018 and currently operates 25 stores under that banner, aiming to attract middle-class, cost-conscious shoppers.
Using Experian’s Mosaic dataset to analyze Dollar Fresh’s trade area reveals that the chain’s captured market features significantly higher shares of lower-middle-class family consumers than its potential one – highlighting its special draw for these shoppers. (A chain’s potential market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to population size, thus reflecting the overall makeup of the chain’s trade area. A business’ captured market, on the other hand, is obtained by weighting each CBG according to its share of visits to the chain in question – and thus represents the profile of its actual visitor base. Comparing a chain’s captured market to its potential one can serve as a helpful gauge of the brand’s success at attracting key audience segments.)
In Q3 2024, the “Pastoral Pride” family segment represented 11.4% of Dollar Fresh’s captured market, compared to just 5.3% of its potential market. This over-representation of lower-middle-class consumers from small towns in Dollar Fresh’s captured market indicates that the chain is especially effective at drawing customers that belong to this segment. Though Hy-Vee’s captured market also boasted a higher share of this demographic than its potential one in Q3, the difference was much smaller – and the chain’s overall reach among these consumers was more limited.
In contrast, Hy-Vee excels at attracting “Flourishing Families” – affluent, middle-aged families and couples – who made up 10.3% of the supermarket’s captured market in Q3 2024. Dollar Fresh’s captured market, on the other hand, featured a smaller share of this segment than its potential one – showing that the discount chain is of less interest to these consumers. So while Hy-Vee tends to appeal to higher-income families with more spending flexibility, value-conscious shoppers have been making their way to Dollar Fresh.
This audience segmentation analysis shows how value offerings help grocery chains attract wider audiences – and highlights the advantage of operating multiple store types to appeal to a broader range of shoppers.
People will always need access to a variety of fresh foods – ensuring that grocery stores and supermarkets continue to play a vital role in in the retail landscape. And while the category as a whole has continued to thrive even in today’s challenging environment, specialty and value grocery chains resonate particularly strongly with the 2024 consumer. As grocery retailers diversify their formats, those aligning with consumer preferences for affordability, uniqueness, and quality are well-positioned for continued growth.
Malls have come a long way since their introduction to the world in the 1950s. These gleaming retail hubs promised shoppers a taste of the American dream, offering a third place for teens, families, and everyone in between to shop, socialize, and hang out.
And though malls have faced challenges in recent years, as e-commerce and pandemic-induced store closures led to shifts in consumer habits, the outlook is brightening. Malls have embraced innovation, incorporating enhanced entertainment, dining, and experiential offerings that attract a diverse range of visitors and redefine their purpose.
This white paper takes a look at the recent location intelligence metrics to gain an understanding of the changes taking place at malls across the country – including both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers. The report explores questions like: Why do malls experience foot traffic bumps during the summer months? How much of an impact do movie theaters have on mall visits, and what can mall operators learn from the Mall of America and American Dream malls’ focus on experiential entertainment?
Mall visitation is highly seasonal, with strikingly consistent monthly visitation patterns. Each year, visits decline somewhat in February, pick up in March, and begin to trend upward again in May – before peaking again in August. Then, after a slower September and October, foot traffic skyrockets during the holiday season, spiking dramatically in December.
And while these trends follow similar patterns every year, comparing monthly visits throughout 2019, 2023, and 2024 (YTD) to each year’s own January baseline shows that this seasonality is growing more pronounced - especially for indoor malls.
Following a lackluster 2023, visits to both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers peaked higher in March 2024 than in 2019. And this summer, indoor malls in particular saw a much larger visit boost than in previous years. In August 2024, for example, visits to indoor malls were 27.3% higher than in January 2024 – a substantially higher baseline jump than that seen either in August 2019 (17.0%) or in August 2023 (12.0%). And though open-air shopping centers experienced a smaller summer visit boost, they too saw a bigger bump this year than in 2019 or in 2023.
But malls aren’t just seeing larger visit spikes this year relative to their January baselines – they are also drawing bigger crowds than they did in 2023.
Between June and August 2024, indoor malls and open-air shopping centers both experienced year-over-year (YoY) visit growth. Indoor malls saw the largest YoY foot traffic boost (3.7%) – perhaps owing in part to 2024’s record-breaking heat, which led many patrons to seek refuge in air conditioned spaces. Still, open-air shopping centers, which feature plenty of air conditioned stores and restaurants, also enjoyed a YoY visit boost of 2.8% during the analyzed period.
Malls’ strong summer baseline and YoY foot traffic growth built upon the strong performance seen during most of 2024 so far, leading to the question: What is driving malls’ positive momentum? We delve into some of the factors propelling these changes below.
One offering that continues to play a significant role in driving foot traffic to malls is on-site movie theaters. Summer blockbuster releases, in particular, help attract crowds to theaters, in turn boosting overall visits to malls.
Much like malls, movie theaters have also proven their resilience over the past few years. While pundits fretted about the theater’s impending death, production houses were busy releasing blockbuster after blockbuster and shattering box-office records at an impressive clip. And while 2023 was certainly a banner year for blockbuster summer releases, 2024 has had its fair share of stunning box-office successes, leading to major visit boosts at theaters across the country.
Analyzing visits to malls with and without movie theaters highlights the impact of these summer Hollywood hits. Between June and August 2024, malls with theaters saw bigger visit boosts compared to a monthly year-to-date (YTD) average than malls without – an effect observed both for indoor malls and for open-air shopping centers.
For both mall types, the gap between centers with and without movie theaters was most pronounced in July 2024, likely owing to the release of Inside Out 2 in mid-June as well as the July releases of Deadpool & Wolverine and Twister. But in June and August 2024, too, centers with movie theaters sustained particularly impressive visit boosts – a solid sign that movie theaters and malls remain a winning combination.
Malls with movie theaters also drew higher shares of evening visits (7:00 PM - 10:00 PM) this summer than those without. Between June and August 2024, for example, evening outings accounted for 22.9% of visits to open-air shopping centers with movie theaters – compared to 18.2% of visits to centers without theaters. Indoor malls with theaters also saw a larger share of evening visits than those without – 18.1% compared to 15.0%.
This increase in evening traffic is likely driven by major summer movie releases and the flexibility of summer schedules, with many visitors – including families – taking advantage of late-night outings without the concern of early wakeup calls. These summer visitation trends benefit both theaters and malls, opening up opportunities for increased sales through concessions, promotions, and evening deals that attract a more relaxed and engaged crowd.
Analyzing the demographics of malls’ captured markets also reveals that centers with movie theaters are more likely to attract certain family-oriented segments than those without. (A mall’s captured market consists of the mall’s trade areas – the census block groups (CBGs) feeding visitors to the mall – weighted according to each CBG’s actual share of visits to the mall.)
Between June and August 2024, for example, 14.2% of the captured markets of open-air shopping centers with movie theaters were made up of “Wealthy Suburban Families” – compared to 9.7% for open-air shopping centers without theaters.
Indoor malls saw a similar pattern with regard to “Near-Urban Diverse Families”: Middle class families living in and around cities made up 9.0% of the captured markets of indoor malls with movie theaters, compared to 7.1% of the captured markets of those without.
This increase in foot traffic from middle-class and wealthy family segments can be a boon for malls and retail tenants – driving up food court profits and bolstering sales at stores with kid-friendly offerings.
Malls have long positioned themselves as destinations for summer entertainment as well as retail therapy, holding – in addition to back to school sales – events like Fourth of July celebrations and even indoor basketball and arena football games. And during the summer months, malls attract visitors from further away.
Between June and August 2024, indoor malls drew 18.2% of visitors from 30+ miles away – compared to just 16.7% during the first five months of the year. Similarly, open-air shopping centers drew 19.6% of visits from 30+ miles away during the summer, compared to 17.1% between January and May.
Extended daylight hours, summer trips away from home, and more free time are likely among the contributors to the summer draw for long-distance mall visitors. But in addition to their classic offerings – from movie theaters to stores and food courts – malls have also invested in other kinds of unique experiences to attract visitors. This next section takes a look at two mega-malls winning at the visitation game, to see what sets them apart.
The Minneapolis-based Mall of America opened in 1992, redefining the limits of what a mall could offer. The mall boasts hundreds of stores, games, rides, and more – and is constantly expanding its attractions, cementing its status as a top destination for retail and entertainment.
Between June and August 2024, Mall of America experienced a 13.8% YoY visit increase, far outperforming the 3.7% visit boost seen by the wider indoor mall space. And as a major tourist attraction – the mall hosted a series of Olympic-themed events throughout the summer – it also drew 41.6% of visits from 30+ miles away. This share of distant visitors was significantly higher than that seen at the mall during the first five months of 2024, and more than double the segment-wide summer average of 18.2%.
The Mall of America also seems to be attracting more upper-middle-class families during the summer than other indoor malls: Between June and August 2024, some 18.0% of Mall of America’s captured market consisted of “Upper Suburban Diverse Family Households” – a segment including upper-middle-class suburbanites – compared to just 11.1% for the wider indoor mall segment. The increased presence of these families at the Mall of America may be driven by the variety of events offered during the summer.
In 2019, the American Dream Mall in New Jersey opened and became the second-largest mall in the country. Since the mall opened its doors, it has also focused on blending retail and entertainment to draw in as wide a range of visitors as possible – and summer 2024 was no exception.
The mall hosted the Arena Football League Championship, ArenaBowl XXXIII, on Friday, July 19th. The event successfully attracted a higher share of visitors traveling from 30+ miles away compared to the average summer Friday – 35.4% compared to 25.7%.
Visits to the mall on the day of the championship were also 13.6% higher than the Friday visit average for the period between June and August 2024, showcasing the mall’s ability to draw in crowds by hosting major events.
Malls – both indoor and open-air – continue to evolve while playing a central role in the American retail landscape. Increasingly, malls are emerging as destinations for more than just shopping – especially during the summer – driving up foot traffic and attracting visitors from near and far. And while much is often said about the impact of holiday seasons on mall foot traffic, summer months offer another opportunity to boost mall visits. Malls that can curate experiences that resonate with their clientele can hope to see foot traffic growth – in the summer months and beyond.
New York City is one of the world’s leading commercial centers – and Manhattan, home to some of the nation's most prominent corporations, is at its epicenter. Manhattan’s substantial in-office workforce has helped make New York a post-pandemic office recovery leader, outpacing most other major U.S. hubs. And the plethora of healthcare, service, and other on-site workers that keep the island humming along also contribute to its thriving employment landscape.
Using the latest location analytics, this report examines the shifting dynamics of the many on-site workers employed in Manhattan and the up-and-coming Hudson Yards neighborhood. Where does today’s Manhattan workforce come from? How often do on-site employees visit Hudson Yards? And how has the share of young professionals across Manhattan’s different districts shifted since the pandemic?
Read on to find out.
The rise in work-from-home (WFH) trends during the pandemic and the persistence of hybrid work have changed the face of commuting in Manhattan.
In Q2 2019, nearly 60% of employee visits to Manhattan originated off the island. But in Q2 2021, that share fell to just 43.9% – likely due to many commuters avoiding public transportation and practicing social distancing during COVID.
Since Q2 2022, however, the share of employee visits to Manhattan from outside the borough has rebounded – steadily approaching, but not yet reaching, pre-pandemic levels. By Q2 2024, 54.7% of employee visits to Manhattan originated from elsewhere – likely a reflection of the Big Apple’s accelerated RTO that is drawing in-office workers back into the city.
Unsurprisingly, some nearby boroughs – including Queens and the Bronx – have seen their share of Manhattan worker visits bounce back to what they were in 2019, while further-away areas of New York and New Jersey continue to lag behind. But Q2 2024 also saw an increase in the share of Manhattan workers commuting from other states – both compared to 2023 and compared to 2019 – perhaps reflecting the rise of super commuting.
Commuting into Manhattan is on the rise – but how often are employees making the trip? Diving into the data for employees based in Hudson Yards – Manhattan’s newest retail, office, and residential hub, which was officially opened to the public in March 2019 – reveals that the local workforce favors fewer in-person work days than in the past.
In August 2019, before the pandemic, 60.2% of Hudson Yards-based employees visited the neighborhood at least fifteen times. But by August 2021, the neighborhood’s share of near-full-time on-site workers had begun to drop – and it has declined ever since. In August 2024, only 22.6% of local workers visited the neighborhood 15+ times throughout the month. Meanwhile, the share of Hudson Yards-based employees making an appearance between five and nine times during the month emerged as the most common visit frequency by August 2022 – and has continued to increase since. In August 2024, 25.0% of employees visited the neighborhood less than five times a month, 32.5% visited between five and nine times, and 19.2% visited between 10 and 14 times.
Like other workers throughout Manhattan, Hudson Yards employees seem to have fully embraced the new hybrid normal – coming into the office between one and four times a week.
But not all employment centers in the Hudson Yards neighborhood see the same patterns of on-site work. Some of the newest office buildings in the area appear to attract employees more frequently and from further away than other properties.
Of the Hudson Yards properties analyzed, Two Manhattan West, which was completed this year, attracted the largest share of frequent, long-distance commuters in August 2024 (15.3%) – defined as employees visiting 10+ times per month from at least 30 miles away. And The Spiral, which opened last year, drew the second-largest share of such on-site workers (12.3%).
Employees in these skyscrapers may prioritize in-person work – or have been encouraged by their employers to return to the office – more than their counterparts in other Hudson Yards buildings. Employees may also choose to come in more frequently to enjoy these properties’ newer and more advanced amenities. And service and shift workers at these properties may also be coming in more frequently to support the buildings’ elevated occupancy.
Diving deeper into the segmentation of on-site employees in the Hudson Yards district provides further insight into this unique on-site workforce.
Analysis of POIs corresponding to several commercial and office hubs in the borough reveals that between August 2019 and August 2024, Hudson Yards’ captured market had the fastest-growing share of employees belonging to STI: Landscape's “Apprentices” segment, which encompasses young, highly-paid professionals in urban settings.
Companies looking to attract young talent have already noticed that these young professionals are receptive to Hudson Yards’ vibrant atmosphere and collaborative spaces, and describe this as a key factor in their choice to lease local offices.
Manhattan is a bastion of commerce, and its strong on-site workforce has helped lead the nation’s post-pandemic office recovery. But the dynamics of the many Manhattan-based workers continues to shift. And as new commercial and residential hubs emerge on the island, workplace trends and the characteristics of employees are almost certain to evolve with them.
