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Boot Barn is one of the fast growing brick-and-mortar apparel brands, with the company seeing a 13.5% year-over-year (YoY) increase in overall visits in Q1 2025. And while much of the growth is driven by the chain’s expansion, the average number of visits per location has remained stable (+0.2% YoY in Q1 2025), suggesting that Boot Barn’s expansion is catering to an existing and eager consumer base.
The company’s strength continued into April, with average visits per venue up by 3.3% YoY – the strongest increase all year – perhaps boosted by consumers’ stocking up on apparel ahead of anticipated price hikes.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Like many consumer companies, the first quarter of 2025 was a challenging one for quick-service restaurants (QSRs). Consistent with commentary from the management teams at several QSR chains that have reported first-quarter 2025 results, year-over-year foot traffic decreased amid increased economic uncertainty for consumers, with our data indicating a 1.6% decrease year over year (YoY). Major chains like McDonald's reported a 3.6% decrease in U.S. same-store sales, driven largely by reduced visits from lower- and middle-income consumers according to management. Despite efforts to attract budget-conscious diners through value promotions like $5 meal deals, many consumers opted to dine at home or shift to more affordable grocery options. However, some brands, including Taco Bell and Wingstop, managed to buck the trend by leveraging unique products and targeted promotions to drive traffic growth.
Below, we build upon our Q1 recap analyses and review year-to-date visitation trends for some of the more notable limited service chains.
McDonald's has not been immune to the increasingly challenging operating environment faced by QSR operators, reporting a 3.6% drop in U.S. same-store sales – the steepest since 2020. This reduction in guests comes amid heightened economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures, which particularly impacted low- and middle-income consumers and led to YoY decreases in visits across much of the retail sector. Our data indicated a 3.3% decrease in visits per location for the quarter, which compares favorably with McDonald’s reported results when adjusting for YoY menu price increases and product mix (an increase in McValue menu purchases has put downward pressure on the average check size). However, weekly visit per location trends have improved since the quarter ended, helped by new menu items, including chicken strips and a Minecraft-themed Happy Meal, to attract cost-conscious diners.
Chipotle Mexican Grill reported a comparable restaurant sales decline of 0.4% during Q1 2025, marking the first such drop since 2020. The comparable store sales decrease was driven by a 2.3% decrease in transaction volume, partially offset by a 1.9% increase in average check size. Our data indicated a 2.1% decrease in visits per location for the full quarter, aligning with the company’s reported results.
Like McDonald’s, Chipotle saw improved visitation trends in March, helped by the introduction of Honey Chicken Since as a protein option in March. According to management, the percentage of Honey Chicken orders as a percent of total has been higher than any other previous limited time offer and even surpassing its two-market pilot test. However, on its first-quarter update, management also called out a slowdown in underlying transaction trends during April as consumers reduced their frequency of restaurant visits amid economic concerns.
Starbucks' also faced a challenging consumer backdrop in the U.S. during its January-March 2025 quarter, with comparable store sales declining 2% year-over-year. This decrease was primarily driven by a 4% drop in transaction volume, partially offset by a 3% increase in average ticket size. Our data indicated [a 5.6% decrease in visits per location and 3.7% decrease in comparable visits]. The company attributed these pressures to decreased foot traffic and increased labor investments associated with its "Back to Starbucks" turnaround strategy. Despite these headwinds, CEO Brian Niccol expressed confidence in the ongoing transformation efforts aimed at enhancing customer experience and operational efficiency.
While Starbucks is still in the early days of implementing its turnaround strategies, competition from mid-sized chains like Dutch Bros, Scooter’s Coffee, and 7 Brew Coffee has become more pronounced. As we recently discussed, these emerging competitors experienced significant year-over-year visit increases—13.4% for Dutch Bros, 15.3% for Scooter’s, and an impressive 87.3% for 7 Brew—suggesting that consumers are increasingly drawn to unique, indulgent offerings and convenient formats such as drive-thrus. Despite Starbucks' strong customer loyalty, the rise of these agile rivals indicates a shift in consumer preferences toward more personalized and experiential coffee options.
In Q1 2025, Taco Bell's emphasis on product innovation significantly contributed to its strong performance, with U.S. same-store sales increasing by 9%. Management noted that "Taco Bell saw a significant expansion in consumer penetration" which helped the brand to grow traffic low single digits, which is consistent with our year-over-year visit per location trends shown below.
The brand introduced a variety of new menu items, including the Caliente Cantina Chicken Menu featuring a spicy red jalapeño sauce, and the Flamin' Hot Burrito filled with seasoned beef, nacho cheese sauce, and Flamin' Hot Cheetos. Additionally, Taco Bell brought back its crispy chicken nuggets, marinated in jalapeño buttermilk and coated with breadcrumbs and tortilla chips, aiming to make them a permanent menu item by 2026. These innovative offerings, alongside value-focused options like the $5, $7, and $9 Luxe Cravings Boxes, have attracted a broad customer base, reinforcing Taco Bell's position as a leader in the quick-service restaurant industry.
Conclusion
Overall, the first quarter of 2025 underscored the increasingly competitive and economically sensitive landscape facing quick-service restaurant chains. While many brands struggled with softer consumer demand and declining visit volumes, a few outliers like Taco Bell and Wingstop demonstrated the power of targeted innovation and promotional strategies. As macroeconomic pressures persist, success in the QSR space will likely hinge on a brand’s ability to balance value offerings with menu excitement, respond quickly to evolving consumer behaviors, and differentiate through experience—whether through digital innovation, drive-thru efficiency, or localized product development.
For more data-driven dining analysis, visit placer.ai/anchor.
With Google and Uber joining the ever-growing ranks of companies tightening remote work policies, employees across industries are being forced to spend more time in the office. But how much are office visit patterns really changing on the ground? Did the resurgence observed in March 2025 continue into April, or was it merely a brief reprieve from the slump seen earlier this year?
April 2025 emerged as the third-busiest in-office month since COVID, outpaced only by October and July 2024. And visits to the Placer.ai Nationwide Office Index were down just 30.7% compared to April 2019 (pre-COVID) – an improvement over April 2024. The upswing is especially notable given that Easter fell in April this year, whereas last year it fell in March. Though the holiday itself takes place on Sunday, many employees celebrate the occasion with a long weekend.
April 2025’s strong performance suggests that despite setbacks in January and February, the office recovery is back on track, with further increases potentially ahead in the coming months.
A closer look at regional trends shows significant variation across major business hubs. New York City, long at the forefront of office recovery, nearly closed its post-pandemic office visit gap in April 2025, with visits just 5.5% below April 2019 levels. Miami also performed strongly, with visits down only 15.3%. Meanwhile, Atlanta and Dallas outperformed the national baseline (Dallas, just barely), while San Francisco once again took up the rear with Chicago.
Drilling down deeper into the data for office recovery leaders, New York and Miami highlights the continued influence of hybrid work on office visitation trends, even as numbers approach pre-pandemic levels.
Nationwide, office visits recovered most strongly mid-week. But this trend was especially pronounced in nearly-recovered NYC, where Tuesdays and Wednesdays were actually busier last month than they were during the same period of 2019 – and where Thursdays were essentially on par with April 2019 levels. Meanwhile, Fridays, and to a lesser extent Mondays, remained significantly below pre-COVID benchmarks. In Miami, too, it was midweek attendance that powered the office recovery – though Fridays rebounded more strongly in the Florida hub than in New York or nationwide.
Turning to year-over-year (YoY) trends, San Francisco once again led in YoY office visit growth – suggesting that accumulating RTO mandates in the city’s tech sector may be fueling substantial recovery. Boston was not far behind, with visits up 7.4% YoY. And while most other cities also posted YoY visit growth, a few hubs – including Houston and Los Angeles – saw modest declines.
April 2025 data from the Placer.ai Office Index indicates that the renewed office recovery momentum seen in March 2025 is continuing apace – though hybrid work remains in full force. What lies ahead for offices in the months to come?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven office recovery analyses to find out.
The Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival, held annually at the Empire Polo Club in Indio, CA, recently wrapped up its 24th run. We dove into the location intelligence data to understand how the audience has changed in recent years and understand how the shift is impacting spending patterns at the festival.
Indio, CA is home to the Empire Polo Club, a thousand-acre event facility known for hosting many large-scale events throughout the year which attract numerous out-of-towners. One of the venue’s oldest annual events is the Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festivals (often referred to just as “Coachella”) that takes place over two consecutive three-day weekends in April and drives large visit spikes to Indio during its run.
Like many other live cultural events, Coachella was cancelled in 2020 and 2021 due to the ongoing COVID pandemic. And comparing the recent audience segmentation data for Empire Polo Club visitors during recent Coachella weekends to pre-pandemic trends suggests that the festival’s audience shifted slightly following its post-pandemic return.
In recent years (2023, 2024, and 2025), the share of family segments in the Empire Polo Club’s captured market has generally been higher than it was pre-pandemic, while the share of single audience segments decreased. Specifically, Spatial.ai’s segments of Near-Urban Diverse Families, Wealthy Suburban Families, and Melting Pot Families grew, while the share of Young Professionals fell. The share of Educated Urbanites in the Empire Polo Club’s captured market showed more variance, though it was also lower over the last two years (2024 and 2025) than it was in 2019.
The audience shift could suggest that Coachella is becoming more family-friendly, with some parents choosing to make a family trip out of the festival weekend. At the same time, the increase in family-oriented segments may also indicate that the audience base has shifted younger and that the festival now attracts more Gen Z attendees, many of whom still live at home.
The shift in audience also seems to have driven a change in spending patterns over Coachella weekend. Between 2019 and 2025, the data reveals a notable decrease in hotel & resort visits by Coachella attendees along with an increase in visits to major retail and dining categories, with the largest visit increase reserved for the most affordable segments.
Perhaps budget-conscious families and cash-strapped Gen-Zers living at home are foregoing the more expensive hotels and resorts in favor of more affordable accommodations such as Airbnbs or even camping on-site. To stretch their budgets even further, these attendees are favoring grocery stores, superstores, c-stores, and QSR as their preferred food options, driving significant visit increases to these categories.
At the same time, traffic to full-service restaurants and even apparel chains also grew somewhat in recent years – which could suggest a bifurcated spending pattern. While a significant portion of attendees prioritize affordability in lodging and everyday food, other segments with more disposable income are still willing to spend on sit-down dining and fashion purchases, perhaps viewing these as part of the overall festival experience.
Analyzing post-pandemic Coachella audiences reveals an increased presence of family segments, coupled with a notable gravitation towards budget-friendly spending – painting a picture of a potentially younger, more financially conscious attendee base. Simultaneously, the continued, albeit more moderate, growth in spending at full-service restaurants and apparel chains also indicates a persistent segment willing to invest in the broader festival experience. This dual trend underscores Coachella's success in balancing its appeal to both value-driven attendees and those seeking a more premium experience and suggests that the festival is continuing to maintain its relevance in 2025 – and beyond.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Following a February slowdown, March 2025 mall data offered early signs of a rebound as indoor mall traffic increased and visit gaps at open-air shopping centers and outlet malls narrowed. Now, April data confirms the resurgence in mall activity, with YoY monthly visits up across all mall formats.
Some of the strength may be due to this year’s relatively late Easter, which fell in April (Easter 2024 took place in March) and may have led to a YoY increase in April 2025 as families utilized the holiday weekend for shopping and leisure. But diving deeper into the data suggests that the calendar shift is just one reason for this month’s strong visit numbers, which may also have been boosted by a pull-forward of consumer demand following the early April tariff announcement.
Looking at daily visits in April reveals that the Easter calendar shift had both a positive and negative impact on mall foot traffic. Visits were strong the week before Easter – particularly on Good Friday – as consumers bought gifts, shopped sales, and used their day off to visit mall-based dining and entertainment venues with friends and family. Outlet malls in particular received a significant boost with visits on April 18th (Good Friday) up 26.2% compared to the April 2025 Friday average – perhaps evidence of a more challenged consumer.
But visits to all three formats also dropped significantly on Easter Sunday, with visits to indoor malls, open-air shopping centers, and outlet malls down 59.4%, 33.3%, and 25.9%, respectively, compared to each format’s Sunday average in April 2025. So while Easter did drive a visit boost before the holiday, Sunday’s traffic drop may have balanced out any Easter-driven increase. Rather, the robust April performance likely reflects sustained consumer demand for mall experiences.
Weekly numbers also suggest that malls’ performance is not just due to an Easter bump. YoY weekly visits increased for all three formats during the last three full weeks of April, with indoor malls and open-air shopping centers receiving the largest boost the week after Easter – pointing to a broader trend of renewed consumer interest in mall-based activities.
The weekly numbers showing visit hikes following April 2nd also suggest that tariffs may already be impacting consumer behavior, with some shoppers likely beginning to stock up ahead of anticipated price increases and possible shortages.
Analyzing the average visit duration adds another layer of insights into malls’ April success.
Last month, the average visit duration increased for all three mall formats – so not only did malls receive more visits YoY, each visit also lasted longer, on average, than it did last year. This may suggest a larger combined basket size, with consumers spending more time in stores or visiting more mall-based retailers in a single trip. This highlights once again the resilience of the format and the ongoing consumer demand for mall-based retail, dining, and entertainment – and may offer another indication of the pull-forward of demand from certain consumers.
April 2025 mall data reveals a significant upswing in mall traffic across all formats along with an increase in average visit duration, demonstrating a recovery that extends beyond the influence of the Easter calendar shift. These positive trends reveal malls’ continued role as key destinations for shopping and leisure – even in times of economic headwinds – and could be pointing to a pull-forward of consumer demand in anticipation of retail uncertainty.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
As new retail construction slows, the trend of repurposing underperforming malls is accelerating, offering exciting opportunities to transform these properties into vibrant mixed-use developments. By blending retail, lifestyle, entertainment, and essential services, these redevelopments can better serve the evolving needs of today’s consumers. Class B malls offer significant potential for investors and retailers to unlock value while meeting the needs of local communities.
According to Green Street, there are 250 Class-B malls in the U.S., making up 28% of all U.S. malls. These properties are typically located in suburban or secondary markets and often feature a mid-tier tenant mix of national and regional retailers within a traditional enclosed mall format. According to Green Street data, A-rated malls boast an impressive 95% occupancy rate, while B malls sit at 89%. Meanwhile, occupancy drops significantly to 72% for C-rated malls and below.
B Malls face a number of challenges in addition to their higher vacancy rates, including lower sales per square foot, less desirable locations, outdated designs, and competition from newer lifestyle centers that offer a more dynamic mix of retail, dining, and entertainment.
Class-B malls, despite their challenges, offer a compelling opportunity for adaptive reuse. Often priced below their original value, these properties are ideal for redevelopment into community-centric hubs, featuring a mix of residential, retail, and public spaces. Reimagining these spaces not only allows investors and developers to achieve significant returns, but also fosters positive economic growth in local communities. For retailers, these revitalized spaces offer the chance to thrive in environments with increasing foot traffic and elevated customer engagement.
Hawthorn Mall, a premier two-story super-regional shopping center in Vernon Hills, Illinois, is one B Mall currently undergoing a significant transformation – and early data suggests that the revitalization efforts are already bearing fruit.
Owned by Centennial Real Estate, Hawthorn is strategically positioned at the intersection of Lake County’s key thoroughfares, offering exceptional convenience and accessibility. The center is anchored by major brands like AMC, Dave & Buster’s, JCPenney, and Macy’s, with a diverse mix of more than 60 retailers and restaurants, including Anthropologie, FP Movement, H&M, Lovesac, PGA Tour Superstore, Perry’s Steakhouse & Grille, and Pure Barre. Now, in the midst of redevelopment, Hawthorn is evolving into a vibrant mixed-use community, integrating luxury residential, expanded retail and dining, and pedestrian-friendly spaces.
Although the Hawthorn Mall redevelopment is still under way, visit quality to the mall has already improved – with the median visit duration rising from 54 minutes between April 2022 and March 2023 to 61 minutes between April 2024 and March 2025. The median household income in Hawthorn’s captured market has increased as well, perhaps thanks to the addition of a luxury apartment complex on the mall’s property. Lastly, the share of evenings visits also grew, suggesting that Hawthorn's revamped dining and entertainment are making it an increasingly popular evening destination for locals.
Class-B malls represent a unique opportunity to meet both market demands and community needs through thoughtful redevelopment. While challenges such as securing financing, navigating zoning and regulatory hurdles, and managing costs exist, the potential rewards are significant. Successful redevelopment requires targeted tenant curation, strategic location, and a bold, forward-thinking vision. With expansive footprints, prime access, and adaptability, Class-B malls are perfectly positioned to evolve into dynamic, mixed-use centers – redefining retail experiences and meeting the needs of modern consumers and communities.
The grocery industry has navigated unprecedented challenges in recent years – from pandemic-driven shifts in consumer behavior and supply chain disruptions to rising costs, labor shortages, and increased operational demands. In the face of these hurdles, the category has been pushed to innovate, adapting everything from product selections to shopping formats to meet changing consumer expectations.
But within the grocery industry, some segments resonate particularly strongly with the 2024 consumer. This white paper dives into the data to explore two segments that have been leading category-wide visit growth for some time: specialty and fresh format stores, which focus on produce, organic foods, and culturally specific items (think Trader Joe’s, Sprouts Farmers Market, and H Mart, to name a few), and value grocery chains like Aldi, WinCo Foods, and Grocery Outlet Bargain Market. Location analytics show shoppers are increasingly drawn to these two grocery store types, a shift that has the potential to reshape the grocery landscape.
How did value and specialty grocery chains perform in Q3 2024 in comparison to traditional supermarkets like Kroger, Albertsons, and H-E-B? How does visitor behavior vary between the three grocery segments, and what differences can be observed in the demographic and psychographic make-ups of their trade areas? The report explores these questions and more below.
The grocery industry has performed well over the past few months, with steady weekly year-over-year (YoY) visit increases throughout Q3 2024. During the week of July 1st, the segment saw a 4.6% YoY foot traffic boost, likely driven by shoppers loading up on ingredients for Independence Day barbecues and picnics. And after tapering somewhat in early August, visits picked up again in September, with YoY increases ranging from 2.0% to 2.9% throughout the month. This positive growth is a good sign for the segment – which has experienced more than its fair share of challenges over the past few years.
Though the grocery category as a whole is thriving, a closer look at different segments within the industry reveals that some are seeing more significant growth than others.
Indeed, digging deeper into grocery visits throughout Q3 2024 reveals that much of the industry’s growth is being driven by specialty and fresh format stores and value grocery chains. The two segments offer markedly different shopping experiences: Specialty chains tend to emphasize harder-to-find ingredients and fresh produce – sometimes even at higher price points than traditional grocery stores – while value grocery stores focus on affordability. But both categories are experiencing outsize visit growth in 2024, highlighting consumers’ dual interest in both quality and value.
In July and August 2024, traditional supermarkets, specialty grocers, and value chains all experienced positive YoY visit growth. But while traditional grocery stores saw a 3.1% increase in July and just a 0.9% uptick in August, value and specialty chains saw YoY growth ranging from 4.7% to 7.7% during the two months. In September 2024, YoY visits to traditional grocery stores fell by 0.5%, while value and specialty chains saw 5.0% and 5.2% increases, respectively. For today’s consumer, it seems, savings are key – but specialty offerings also resonate strongly.
Today’s grocery shoppers are increasingly embracing specialty grocery options – and analyzing consumer driving habits to grocery stores shows that they are willing to go the extra mile to reach them.
Breaking down grocery visits by distance traveled reveals that just 18.5% of visits to specialty and fresh format grocery chains came from less than one mile away in Q3 2024 – compared to 23.9% for traditional grocery stores and 23.2% for value chains. Similarly, 31.3% of visits to specialty and fresh format grocery stores originated from one to three miles away, compared to 34.7% and 34.5% for the other analyzed segments.
On the flip side, some 26.4% of visits to specialty and fresh format stores were made by people traveling at least seven miles to do their shopping – compared to 22.7% and 21.4% for traditional and value chains, respectively. Specialty grocery operators can account for this difference, locating stores in areas accessible to geographically dispersed audiences eager to shop their unique offerings.
And a look at changes in visitor behavior at three key specialty chains – Trader Joe’s, Sprouts Farmers Market, and Great Wall Supermarket – shows that even as these brands expand their footprints, customers are increasingly willing to travel the distance to visit them. Between 2019 and 2024, all three chains saw a marked increase in the share of visitors traveling over seven miles to shop their offerings. .
Asian grocery chain Great Wall Supermarket, a relatively small regional chain with some 22 locations across eight states, saw the most significant increase in visits from afar over the analyzed period. In Q3 2024, 32.3% of visits to the chain originated from seven or more miles away, up from 28.3% in Q3 2019. Ranked America’s Best Supermarket by Newsweek in 2024, the chain’s wide selection of everything from seafood to fresh produce has made it a hit among Asian food aficionados – and as the supermarket’s reputation grows, so does its draw among customers living further away from its venues.
Consumer favorite Trader Joe’s and organic grocery chain Sprouts Farmers Market also grew their shares of long-distance visits between 2019 and 2024 – no small feat for the two chains, given their expansion over the past several years.
This travel distance snapshot serves as a reminder of the unique role played by specialty grocery stores that offer their customers unique shopping experiences, premium or organic products, and culturally specific items. Shoppers will go out of their way to travel to these stores – and even as they expand and become more readily accessible, their growing popularity makes them ever-more attractive destinations for customers coming from further away.
While visitors to specialty grocery chains often travel long distances for unique offerings, cost-conscious consumers at value stores exhibit other behaviors that differentiate them from traditional and specialty grocery shoppers.
The rising cost of living has pushed the discount retail segment into overdrive – and value grocery chains are also benefiting. The category has flourished in recent years, with many bargain-oriented grocery chains adding new stores at a rapid clip to meet burgeoning consumer demand.
Like visitors to specialty grocery chains, value grocery shoppers demonstrate segment-specific behaviors that reflect their preferences and habits. And perhaps most strikingly, foot traffic data reveals that these shoppers tend to stay longer in-store than visitors to traditional and specialty grocery chains.
In Q3 2024, 26.5% of visits to value grocery chains lasted longer than 30 minutes, compared to 23.4% for traditional grocery chains and 23.7% for specialty and fresh format chains. This suggests that these stores attract shoppers who take their time and carefully consider price points, looking for the best value for their dollar – a need that the chains they frequent seem to be meeting.
Given the tremendous success of the value grocery space in recent years, it may come as no surprise that some traditional supermarkets are getting in on the action by opening or expanding discount banners of their own. How do such off-shoot banners impact these grocers’ reach?
Cult-favorite Texas grocery chain H-E-B opened the first branch of its value banner, Joe V’s Smart Shop, in 2010. The discount arm currently includes 11 stores – mainly in the Houston area – with several new stores opening, or in planning stages, in Dallas.
And foot traffic data shows that Joe V's attracts mission-driven shoppers who make less frequent but significantly longer trips than visitors to traditional grocery stores. In Q3 2024, the average visit duration at Joe V’s was 37.8 minutes, compared to just 26.8 minutes at H-E-B – a full 11 minute difference. At the same time, while 38.5% of Q3 visits to H-E-B were made by customers frequenting the chain, on average, at least four times a month, just 11.8% of visits to Joe V’s were made by visitors reaching that threshold.
Joe V’s is also more likely than H-E-B to attract parental households, with 36.8% of its captured market made up of households with children – significantly higher than H-E-B’s 32.0%.
Together, these data points paint a picture of the average Joe V’s shopper: cost-conscious, likely to have children, and inclined to carefully plan shopping trips to maximize savings and cut down on grocery runs. This suggests that they are mission-driven and focused on stocking up rather than running out to grab ingredients as the need arises.
Major grocery store operators often operate a variety of store types at different price points to appeal to as many shoppers as possible, and Hy-Vee is no exception. The regional grocery favorite launched a discount chain, Dollar Fresh, in 2018 and currently operates 25 stores under that banner, aiming to attract middle-class, cost-conscious shoppers.
Using Experian’s Mosaic dataset to analyze Dollar Fresh’s trade area reveals that the chain’s captured market features significantly higher shares of lower-middle-class family consumers than its potential one – highlighting its special draw for these shoppers. (A chain’s potential market is obtained by weighting each Census Block Group (CBG) in its trade area according to population size, thus reflecting the overall makeup of the chain’s trade area. A business’ captured market, on the other hand, is obtained by weighting each CBG according to its share of visits to the chain in question – and thus represents the profile of its actual visitor base. Comparing a chain’s captured market to its potential one can serve as a helpful gauge of the brand’s success at attracting key audience segments.)
In Q3 2024, the “Pastoral Pride” family segment represented 11.4% of Dollar Fresh’s captured market, compared to just 5.3% of its potential market. This over-representation of lower-middle-class consumers from small towns in Dollar Fresh’s captured market indicates that the chain is especially effective at drawing customers that belong to this segment. Though Hy-Vee’s captured market also boasted a higher share of this demographic than its potential one in Q3, the difference was much smaller – and the chain’s overall reach among these consumers was more limited.
In contrast, Hy-Vee excels at attracting “Flourishing Families” – affluent, middle-aged families and couples – who made up 10.3% of the supermarket’s captured market in Q3 2024. Dollar Fresh’s captured market, on the other hand, featured a smaller share of this segment than its potential one – showing that the discount chain is of less interest to these consumers. So while Hy-Vee tends to appeal to higher-income families with more spending flexibility, value-conscious shoppers have been making their way to Dollar Fresh.
This audience segmentation analysis shows how value offerings help grocery chains attract wider audiences – and highlights the advantage of operating multiple store types to appeal to a broader range of shoppers.
People will always need access to a variety of fresh foods – ensuring that grocery stores and supermarkets continue to play a vital role in in the retail landscape. And while the category as a whole has continued to thrive even in today’s challenging environment, specialty and value grocery chains resonate particularly strongly with the 2024 consumer. As grocery retailers diversify their formats, those aligning with consumer preferences for affordability, uniqueness, and quality are well-positioned for continued growth.
Malls have come a long way since their introduction to the world in the 1950s. These gleaming retail hubs promised shoppers a taste of the American dream, offering a third place for teens, families, and everyone in between to shop, socialize, and hang out.
And though malls have faced challenges in recent years, as e-commerce and pandemic-induced store closures led to shifts in consumer habits, the outlook is brightening. Malls have embraced innovation, incorporating enhanced entertainment, dining, and experiential offerings that attract a diverse range of visitors and redefine their purpose.
This white paper takes a look at the recent location intelligence metrics to gain an understanding of the changes taking place at malls across the country – including both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers. The report explores questions like: Why do malls experience foot traffic bumps during the summer months? How much of an impact do movie theaters have on mall visits, and what can mall operators learn from the Mall of America and American Dream malls’ focus on experiential entertainment?
Mall visitation is highly seasonal, with strikingly consistent monthly visitation patterns. Each year, visits decline somewhat in February, pick up in March, and begin to trend upward again in May – before peaking again in August. Then, after a slower September and October, foot traffic skyrockets during the holiday season, spiking dramatically in December.
And while these trends follow similar patterns every year, comparing monthly visits throughout 2019, 2023, and 2024 (YTD) to each year’s own January baseline shows that this seasonality is growing more pronounced - especially for indoor malls.
Following a lackluster 2023, visits to both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers peaked higher in March 2024 than in 2019. And this summer, indoor malls in particular saw a much larger visit boost than in previous years. In August 2024, for example, visits to indoor malls were 27.3% higher than in January 2024 – a substantially higher baseline jump than that seen either in August 2019 (17.0%) or in August 2023 (12.0%). And though open-air shopping centers experienced a smaller summer visit boost, they too saw a bigger bump this year than in 2019 or in 2023.
But malls aren’t just seeing larger visit spikes this year relative to their January baselines – they are also drawing bigger crowds than they did in 2023.
Between June and August 2024, indoor malls and open-air shopping centers both experienced year-over-year (YoY) visit growth. Indoor malls saw the largest YoY foot traffic boost (3.7%) – perhaps owing in part to 2024’s record-breaking heat, which led many patrons to seek refuge in air conditioned spaces. Still, open-air shopping centers, which feature plenty of air conditioned stores and restaurants, also enjoyed a YoY visit boost of 2.8% during the analyzed period.
Malls’ strong summer baseline and YoY foot traffic growth built upon the strong performance seen during most of 2024 so far, leading to the question: What is driving malls’ positive momentum? We delve into some of the factors propelling these changes below.
One offering that continues to play a significant role in driving foot traffic to malls is on-site movie theaters. Summer blockbuster releases, in particular, help attract crowds to theaters, in turn boosting overall visits to malls.
Much like malls, movie theaters have also proven their resilience over the past few years. While pundits fretted about the theater’s impending death, production houses were busy releasing blockbuster after blockbuster and shattering box-office records at an impressive clip. And while 2023 was certainly a banner year for blockbuster summer releases, 2024 has had its fair share of stunning box-office successes, leading to major visit boosts at theaters across the country.
Analyzing visits to malls with and without movie theaters highlights the impact of these summer Hollywood hits. Between June and August 2024, malls with theaters saw bigger visit boosts compared to a monthly year-to-date (YTD) average than malls without – an effect observed both for indoor malls and for open-air shopping centers.
For both mall types, the gap between centers with and without movie theaters was most pronounced in July 2024, likely owing to the release of Inside Out 2 in mid-June as well as the July releases of Deadpool & Wolverine and Twister. But in June and August 2024, too, centers with movie theaters sustained particularly impressive visit boosts – a solid sign that movie theaters and malls remain a winning combination.
Malls with movie theaters also drew higher shares of evening visits (7:00 PM - 10:00 PM) this summer than those without. Between June and August 2024, for example, evening outings accounted for 22.9% of visits to open-air shopping centers with movie theaters – compared to 18.2% of visits to centers without theaters. Indoor malls with theaters also saw a larger share of evening visits than those without – 18.1% compared to 15.0%.
This increase in evening traffic is likely driven by major summer movie releases and the flexibility of summer schedules, with many visitors – including families – taking advantage of late-night outings without the concern of early wakeup calls. These summer visitation trends benefit both theaters and malls, opening up opportunities for increased sales through concessions, promotions, and evening deals that attract a more relaxed and engaged crowd.
Analyzing the demographics of malls’ captured markets also reveals that centers with movie theaters are more likely to attract certain family-oriented segments than those without. (A mall’s captured market consists of the mall’s trade areas – the census block groups (CBGs) feeding visitors to the mall – weighted according to each CBG’s actual share of visits to the mall.)
Between June and August 2024, for example, 14.2% of the captured markets of open-air shopping centers with movie theaters were made up of “Wealthy Suburban Families” – compared to 9.7% for open-air shopping centers without theaters.
Indoor malls saw a similar pattern with regard to “Near-Urban Diverse Families”: Middle class families living in and around cities made up 9.0% of the captured markets of indoor malls with movie theaters, compared to 7.1% of the captured markets of those without.
This increase in foot traffic from middle-class and wealthy family segments can be a boon for malls and retail tenants – driving up food court profits and bolstering sales at stores with kid-friendly offerings.
Malls have long positioned themselves as destinations for summer entertainment as well as retail therapy, holding – in addition to back to school sales – events like Fourth of July celebrations and even indoor basketball and arena football games. And during the summer months, malls attract visitors from further away.
Between June and August 2024, indoor malls drew 18.2% of visitors from 30+ miles away – compared to just 16.7% during the first five months of the year. Similarly, open-air shopping centers drew 19.6% of visits from 30+ miles away during the summer, compared to 17.1% between January and May.
Extended daylight hours, summer trips away from home, and more free time are likely among the contributors to the summer draw for long-distance mall visitors. But in addition to their classic offerings – from movie theaters to stores and food courts – malls have also invested in other kinds of unique experiences to attract visitors. This next section takes a look at two mega-malls winning at the visitation game, to see what sets them apart.
The Minneapolis-based Mall of America opened in 1992, redefining the limits of what a mall could offer. The mall boasts hundreds of stores, games, rides, and more – and is constantly expanding its attractions, cementing its status as a top destination for retail and entertainment.
Between June and August 2024, Mall of America experienced a 13.8% YoY visit increase, far outperforming the 3.7% visit boost seen by the wider indoor mall space. And as a major tourist attraction – the mall hosted a series of Olympic-themed events throughout the summer – it also drew 41.6% of visits from 30+ miles away. This share of distant visitors was significantly higher than that seen at the mall during the first five months of 2024, and more than double the segment-wide summer average of 18.2%.
The Mall of America also seems to be attracting more upper-middle-class families during the summer than other indoor malls: Between June and August 2024, some 18.0% of Mall of America’s captured market consisted of “Upper Suburban Diverse Family Households” – a segment including upper-middle-class suburbanites – compared to just 11.1% for the wider indoor mall segment. The increased presence of these families at the Mall of America may be driven by the variety of events offered during the summer.
In 2019, the American Dream Mall in New Jersey opened and became the second-largest mall in the country. Since the mall opened its doors, it has also focused on blending retail and entertainment to draw in as wide a range of visitors as possible – and summer 2024 was no exception.
The mall hosted the Arena Football League Championship, ArenaBowl XXXIII, on Friday, July 19th. The event successfully attracted a higher share of visitors traveling from 30+ miles away compared to the average summer Friday – 35.4% compared to 25.7%.
Visits to the mall on the day of the championship were also 13.6% higher than the Friday visit average for the period between June and August 2024, showcasing the mall’s ability to draw in crowds by hosting major events.
Malls – both indoor and open-air – continue to evolve while playing a central role in the American retail landscape. Increasingly, malls are emerging as destinations for more than just shopping – especially during the summer – driving up foot traffic and attracting visitors from near and far. And while much is often said about the impact of holiday seasons on mall foot traffic, summer months offer another opportunity to boost mall visits. Malls that can curate experiences that resonate with their clientele can hope to see foot traffic growth – in the summer months and beyond.
New York City is one of the world’s leading commercial centers – and Manhattan, home to some of the nation's most prominent corporations, is at its epicenter. Manhattan’s substantial in-office workforce has helped make New York a post-pandemic office recovery leader, outpacing most other major U.S. hubs. And the plethora of healthcare, service, and other on-site workers that keep the island humming along also contribute to its thriving employment landscape.
Using the latest location analytics, this report examines the shifting dynamics of the many on-site workers employed in Manhattan and the up-and-coming Hudson Yards neighborhood. Where does today’s Manhattan workforce come from? How often do on-site employees visit Hudson Yards? And how has the share of young professionals across Manhattan’s different districts shifted since the pandemic?
Read on to find out.
The rise in work-from-home (WFH) trends during the pandemic and the persistence of hybrid work have changed the face of commuting in Manhattan.
In Q2 2019, nearly 60% of employee visits to Manhattan originated off the island. But in Q2 2021, that share fell to just 43.9% – likely due to many commuters avoiding public transportation and practicing social distancing during COVID.
Since Q2 2022, however, the share of employee visits to Manhattan from outside the borough has rebounded – steadily approaching, but not yet reaching, pre-pandemic levels. By Q2 2024, 54.7% of employee visits to Manhattan originated from elsewhere – likely a reflection of the Big Apple’s accelerated RTO that is drawing in-office workers back into the city.
Unsurprisingly, some nearby boroughs – including Queens and the Bronx – have seen their share of Manhattan worker visits bounce back to what they were in 2019, while further-away areas of New York and New Jersey continue to lag behind. But Q2 2024 also saw an increase in the share of Manhattan workers commuting from other states – both compared to 2023 and compared to 2019 – perhaps reflecting the rise of super commuting.
Commuting into Manhattan is on the rise – but how often are employees making the trip? Diving into the data for employees based in Hudson Yards – Manhattan’s newest retail, office, and residential hub, which was officially opened to the public in March 2019 – reveals that the local workforce favors fewer in-person work days than in the past.
In August 2019, before the pandemic, 60.2% of Hudson Yards-based employees visited the neighborhood at least fifteen times. But by August 2021, the neighborhood’s share of near-full-time on-site workers had begun to drop – and it has declined ever since. In August 2024, only 22.6% of local workers visited the neighborhood 15+ times throughout the month. Meanwhile, the share of Hudson Yards-based employees making an appearance between five and nine times during the month emerged as the most common visit frequency by August 2022 – and has continued to increase since. In August 2024, 25.0% of employees visited the neighborhood less than five times a month, 32.5% visited between five and nine times, and 19.2% visited between 10 and 14 times.
Like other workers throughout Manhattan, Hudson Yards employees seem to have fully embraced the new hybrid normal – coming into the office between one and four times a week.
But not all employment centers in the Hudson Yards neighborhood see the same patterns of on-site work. Some of the newest office buildings in the area appear to attract employees more frequently and from further away than other properties.
Of the Hudson Yards properties analyzed, Two Manhattan West, which was completed this year, attracted the largest share of frequent, long-distance commuters in August 2024 (15.3%) – defined as employees visiting 10+ times per month from at least 30 miles away. And The Spiral, which opened last year, drew the second-largest share of such on-site workers (12.3%).
Employees in these skyscrapers may prioritize in-person work – or have been encouraged by their employers to return to the office – more than their counterparts in other Hudson Yards buildings. Employees may also choose to come in more frequently to enjoy these properties’ newer and more advanced amenities. And service and shift workers at these properties may also be coming in more frequently to support the buildings’ elevated occupancy.
Diving deeper into the segmentation of on-site employees in the Hudson Yards district provides further insight into this unique on-site workforce.
Analysis of POIs corresponding to several commercial and office hubs in the borough reveals that between August 2019 and August 2024, Hudson Yards’ captured market had the fastest-growing share of employees belonging to STI: Landscape's “Apprentices” segment, which encompasses young, highly-paid professionals in urban settings.
Companies looking to attract young talent have already noticed that these young professionals are receptive to Hudson Yards’ vibrant atmosphere and collaborative spaces, and describe this as a key factor in their choice to lease local offices.
Manhattan is a bastion of commerce, and its strong on-site workforce has helped lead the nation’s post-pandemic office recovery. But the dynamics of the many Manhattan-based workers continues to shift. And as new commercial and residential hubs emerge on the island, workplace trends and the characteristics of employees are almost certain to evolve with them.
