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With summer and back-to-school shopping in the rearview mirror, we dove into the data to check in with a major player on the retail scene – warehouse favorite Costco. How has the chain been faring this year, and what can Costco’s visitation patterns tell us about what lies ahead for it during the all-important fourth quarter of the year?
We dove into the data to find out.
Costco’s wholesale club model seems like it was tailor made for the 2024 consumer. Though prices aren’t rising as rapidly as they did last year, consumers remain eager to cut costs, embracing retailers that allow them to load up on essentials while indulging in affordable splurges that don’t break the bank. And Costco, which provides customers with steep discounts on everything from bulk cereals to patio furniture, is reaping the benefits.
Since January 2024, Costco has enjoyed consistently positive year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic growth, outpacing the wider Superstore and Wholesale Club category every month of 2024 so far. Even in January, when retail visits nationwide were severely dampened by unusually cold and stormy weather, Costco saw YoY visits increase by 5.2% – a remarkable accomplishment.
Why is Costco resonating so strongly with consumers this year? One factor may be the unique blend of mission-driven shopping and treasure hunting offered by the membership club. Costco is all about bulk buying – and when people head out to the wholesaler, they expect to come back with a massive haul of canned goods and pantry staples. But with oft-changing inventory and ubiquitous free samples, Costco also offers a fun shopping experience that encourages customers to try new items and make unexpected purchases as they cruise the aisles.
So it may come as no surprise that people spend much longer browsing the aisles at Costco than they do at other superstores and wholesale clubs. And while competitors like Target, Walmart, and BJ’s Wholesale have seen slight drops in their average dwell times over the past three years, Costco’s average dwell time has remained considerably longer – and remarkably steady.
Costco also drives visits by leaning into special calendar days. Unlike some other retailers, Costco closes its doors on most major holidays, including Memorial Day and Labor Day. But the chain still offers major discounts on the days leading up to and following these special days, driving heightened interest – and foot traffic.
Comparing visits on Tuesday, September 3rd – the day after Labor Day – to a year-to-date (YTD) daily average highlights the power of holiday sales, as well as pent-up demand following the store’s closure, to drive traffic to Costco. September 3rd was Costco’s second-busiest Tuesday of the year so far (up 23.8% compared to a YTD Tuesday average) – outpaced only by the pre-Independence Day July 2nd frenzy. May 28th, the day after Memorial Day, was also unusually busy at Costco, as customers rushed to take advantage of Memorial Day markdowns that lasted well into the following week.
In another sign of Costco’s robust positioning ahead of the all-important Black Friday and Christmas shopping season, visits to Costco on the Tuesday after Labor Day this year (Tuesday, September 3rd, 2024) were 6.1% higher this year than in 2023 (Tuesday, September 5th, 2023).
Costco’s visitation patterns showcase a brand that is positively thriving in 2024. And though it may be too soon to assess the impact of the membership chain’s recent fee hike, the warehouse chain appears poised to enjoy a robust November and December holiday season.
Follow our blog at Placer.ai to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Visits to the home improvement segment thrived during the pandemic, then slowed as high interest rates and rising prices led many consumers to defer big projects. But paint and coating giant Sherwin-Williams has displayed a special resilience, driving visits in what remains a challenging environment for the category.
With prime relocation season winding down, we dove into the foot traffic and audience segmentation data for the chain to uncover the trends that might be behind Sherwin-Williams’ recent success.
Paint and coating giant Sherwin-Williams Company is having a moment. After reporting stronger-than-expected earnings last quarter, the company raised its full-year outlook for 2024. And foot traffic to the company’s eponymous chain, where many of its products are sold exclusively, has been on an upswing.
Since the start of the year, Sherwin-Williams has seen consistently more robust visit growth than the wider home improvement segment compared to an August 2019 baseline – except in May 2024, when home improvement stores see their biggest annual visits spikes. In August 2024, visits to Sherwin-Williams were up 12.4% compared to an August 2019 baseline, while the broader category saw a minor decline of 2.1%.
According to a recent report by Sherwin-Williams management, the company has been outpacing the home improvement category in sales related to new residential projects. And with new home sales beginning to pick up steam, they could be playing a role in Sherwin-Williams’ recent visit surge.
Sherwin-Williams’ outsized August visit growth may also be due in part to its unique seasonal visit patterns. While home improvement chains usually enjoy a major spring foot traffic spike in May, as consumers take on fair-weather projects, Sherwin-Williams sees more prolonged visit boosts lasting throughout the spring and summer – and since 2023 has experienced pronounced upticks in May and August. As a paint store, Sherwin-Williams likely benefits from summer relocations – the period between mid-May and mid-September is the most popular time for moves in the U.S., which often require residences to be repainted.
Diving deeper into the segmentation of Sherwin-Williams’ customer base reveals another factor that could be behind the company’s recent success.
Analyzing Sherwin-Williams’ potential market with data from STI: PopStats shows that the chain is positioned to serve average-income consumers, with median household incomes (HHIs) just under the nationwide baseline of $76.1K. But though the median HHI of Sherwin-Williams’ potential market declined slightly over the past several years, the median HHI of its captured market has increased. (A chain’s potential market refers to its overall trade area, weighted to reflect the size of each Census Block Group (CBG) therein. A chain’s captured market, on the other hand, is obtained by weighting each CBG according to its share of visits to the chain in question, and thus reflects the characteristics of the chain’s actual visitor base.)
This indicates that Sherwin-Williams is doing an especially good job this year at driving traffic from areas within its markets that feature larger shares of higher-income residents – those likely to be moving into a new home or renovating.
Will Sherwin-Williams’ impressive foot traffic growth continue in the months ahead? If shelter inflation indeed eases, as some analysts suspect, more consumers may be inclined to repaint their homes or upgrade their living situation altogether – driving even more demand for the brand.
For updates and more retail foot traffic insights, visit Placer.ai.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
The fitness industry continues to thrive. Even as consumers reduce discretionary spending, many see gym memberships as an essential indulgence. And while value may be key for some fitness buffs, others are willing to splurge on pricier health clubs.
We dove into the data for two premium fitness chains – Life Time and Orangetheory – to better understand what’s driving their recent success.
It’s no secret that value has dominated the consumer mindset this summer – including in the fitness category. And low-cost chains like Crunch Fitness and Planet Fitness remain popular choices for gym-goers. Still, upscale gyms are carving out their share of visit gains.
Since April 2024, Life Time and Orangetheory have driven consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit growth. In Q2 2024, foot traffic increased 5.4% to Life Time and 7.8% to Orangetheory compared to 2023.
Life Time encourages community and aims to be more than just a place to exercise – which is reflected in the cost of membership. The luxurious amenities at its “athletic country clubs” are complemented by events and nearby coworking spaces and even residential complexes at some locations. And increased foot traffic suggests that more consumers are opting into Life Time’s lifestyle.
Orangetheory takes a different approach to fitness. Aside from a premium membership tier which offers unlimited classes, the Orangetheory model allows members to pay monthly for a set number of guided workouts at its boutique-style gyms. Orangetheory prices aren’t cheap, but considering the personal attention and real-time biofeedback gym-goers enjoy, it’s no wonder the concept is resonating with consumers.
Digging deeper into the data reveals that visitors to Life Time and Orangetheory are highly engaged with the brands, frequently visiting the club or taking regular classes. And the more members are engaged, the more likely they are to renew or upgrade memberships.
In Q2 2024, 86.0% of Life Time’s visits were made by frequent visitors (those that visited at least four times a month) – a higher share than that of value fitness chains (78.3%).
Meanwhile, 63.0% of Orangetheory’s visits came from frequent visitors. This slightly lower share may be due to the fact that Orangetheory offers pre-purchased class packs – which allow gym-goers to spread out their workouts over a longer period of time. And this allows Orangetheory to drive traffic from casual gym-goers who may avoid monthly gym memberships altogether.
While Life Time and Orangetheory experience different shares of frequent visits, analyzing the demographic characteristics of each provides further insight into the audiences from which they drive traffic.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, Life Time’s captured market featured the largest share of high-income households in Q2 2024 (i.e. those with HHIs above $150K), followed by Orangetheory. And value gyms were more likely to draw consumers with HHIs below $100K.
But notably, Life Time, Orangetheory, and value gyms all drew diverse audiences. Some 40.5% of Life Time’s captured market was made up of households with HHIs below $100K – while 19.7% of value gyms’ captured markets were made up of households with HHIs over $150K. And the captured markets of all three had similar shares of households making between $100K and $150K.
So while the highest income consumers may be most likely to visit the upscale chains, those making $100K-$150K are almost as likely to visit a value-focused gym.
Value-focused gyms and upscale health clubs each have a place in the wide fitness landscape, with demand for both growing strong. Will the industry continue to be a winner as 2024 comes to a close?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Convenience stores, or c-stores, have been one of the more exciting retail categories to watch over the past few years. The segment has undergone significant shifts, embracing more diverse offerings like fresh food and expanded dining options, while also exploring new markets and adapting to changing consumer needs.
We took a closer look at how the segment is faring as Q3 2024 draws to a close.
Convenience stores are increasingly viewed not only as places to fuel up, but as affordable destinations for quick meals, snacks, and other necessities. And analyzing monthly visits to the category shows that it is continuing to benefit from its positioning as a stop for food, fuel, and in some cases, tourism.
Despite lapping a strong H1 2023, visits to the category either exceeded last year’s levels or held steady during all but one of the first eight months of 2024 – highlighting the segment’s ongoing strength. Only in January 2024 did C-stores see a slight YoY dip, likely reflecting a weather-induced exaggeration of the segment’s normal seasonality.
Indeed, examining monthly fluctuations in visits to c-stores (compared to a January 2021 baseline) shows that foot traffic to the category tends to peak in summer months – perhaps driven by summer road trips and vacations – and slow down significantly in winter. Given summer’s importance for convenience stores, the category’s August YoY visit bump is a particularly promising indication of c-stores’ robust positioning this year.
While some C-store chains, like 7-Eleven, have a nationwide presence, others are concentrated in specific areas of the country. But as the popularity of C-stores continues to grow, regional chains like Wawa, Buc-ee’s, and Sheetz are expanding into new territories, broadening their reach.
Wawa, a beloved brand with roots in Pennsylvania, has become synonymous with its fresh sandwiches, coffee, and a highly loyal customer base. Wawa has been a major player in the c-store space in recent years, with a revamped menu driving ever-stronger foot traffic to its Mid-Atlantic region stores. Between January and August 2024, YoY visits to the chain were mostly elevated. And the chain is now venturing into states like Florida – where its store count has grown significantly over the past few years – as well as Georgia and Alabama.
Meanwhile, Texas favorite Buc-ee’s, though known for its enormous stores and mind boggling array of dining options, has a relatively small footprint – but that might be changing. The chain, which also outpaced its already-strong 2023 performance this year, is opening locations in Arkansas and North Carolina, further building on its reputation as a destination for travelers. And Sheetz, another regional chain with a strong presence in Pennsylvania, is also expanding, with plans to open locations in Southern states like North Carolina and Tennessee.
This trend toward regional expansion offers significant opportunities for growth, not only by increasing store count, but also by reaching new consumer bases and target audiences. Customer behavior differs between markets – and by expanding into new areas, c-stores can tap into unique local visitation patterns.
One metric that highlights local differences in consumer behavior is dwell time, or the amount of time a customer spends inside a convenience store per visit. In some regions, visitors tend to move in and out quickly, while in others, customers linger for longer periods of time.
Analyzing convenience store dwell times by state highlights substantial differences in visitor behavior. During the first eight months of 2024, coastal states (with the exception of Oregon) tended to see shorter average dwell times (between 7.5 and 11.8 minutes). On the other hand, in states like Wyoming, Montana, and North Dakota, average dwell times ranged between 21.2 and 28.2 minutes.
Interestingly, the states with the longest dwell times also have some of the highest percentages of truck traffic on interstate highways – suggesting that these longer stops are perhaps made by long-haul truckers looking for a place to shower, relax, and grab a bite to eat.
Even as regional favorites expand their reach, nationwide classic 7-Eleven is taking steps to further cement its growing role as a prime grab-and-go food and beverage destination. And like other dining destinations, the chain relies on limited-time offers (LTOs) to fuel excitement – and visits.
One of the most iconic, and beloved c-store LTOs is 7-Eleven’s Slurpee Day, which falls each year on July 11th. The event, during which all 7-Eleven locations hand out free slurpees, tends to drive significant upticks in foot traffic – and this year was no exception. Visits to the convenience store jumped by a whopping 127.3% on July 11th, 2024 relative to the YTD daily visit average – proving that good deals will bring customers in the door.
The convenience store sector continues building on the impressive growth seen in 2023. As many chains double down on expanding both their regional presence and their offerings, will they continue to drive growth in the coming years?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven convenience store updates.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Darden Restaurants, Inc. is a major player in the restaurant industry, operating restaurants across a wide range of dining styles and price points. Recently, Darden announced plans to acquire Tex-Mex chain Chuy’s, a move that would add some 100 new locations across 16 states to the Darden portfolio.
We took a closer look at how the dining brand has performed over the past few months, and dug deeper into what impact the Chuy’s acquisition might have on Darden.
Darden's 2024 performance has been strong, with only three months – January, April, and July – showing YoY visit declines. January’s 2.9% decline was likely driven by unseasonably cold weather, while Easter weekend shifted visits across multiple retail categories in April 2024. And though July visits experienced a modest dip of 0.5% YoY, the drop was quickly offset by a 5.1% YoY increase in August.
This trend points to a recovery in consumer dining behavior, particularly in the full-service restaurant sector, where growth is being driven by consumers opting for higher-quality dining experiences over fast food options.
Darden owns and operates nearly 2,000 restaurants nationwide. Its three core brands – Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, and Cheddar’s Scratch Kitchen make up the bulk of these locations.
All three restaurant chains enjoyed overall positive momentum over the past few months, with LongHorn emerging as a standout performer. The chain saw its foot traffic increase in all months analyzed, with August 2024 visits elevated by 10.4% YoY.
Cheddar’s Scratch Kitchen and Olive Garden, too, experienced growth in all but two of the analyzed months, with August 2024 visits elevated by 3.1% and 6.9%, respectively, YoY. These trends point to consistent – and perhaps growing – consumer demand, a solid position as the holiday season approaches.
In July 2024, Darden announced its intention to acquire Chuy’s, an Austin-based Tex-Mex chain, a move that could add 101 stores to Darden’s already extensive portfolio. And while the acquisition is still pending, digging into the demographic and psychographic data offers some insight into what might make Chuy’s at home with the Darden family.
One defining factor of Darden’s restaurant portfolio might be its range – the chain offers dining options that appeal to people across a variety of income brackets. Its core brands – Cheddar’s Scratch Kitchen, Longhorn Steakhouse, and Olive Garden – cater to a customer base with household incomes similar to the nationwide median of $76.1K. But Darden’s broader portfolio includes several chains that appeal to wealthier patrons – visitors to Eddie V’s Prime Seafood, for example, came from trade areas where the median household income (HHI) was $105K.
Chuy’s visitor base, meanwhile, hails from trade areas with a median HHI of $86.2K. So the addition might help the restaurant group build on its core audience while appealing to higher-income diners who may be looking to “trade down” to a more casual, affordable meal without compromising on quality. This alignment allows Chuy’s to seamlessly fit within Darden's strategy, providing a diverse range of dining experiences while expanding its reach into higher-income markets.
Darden’s acquisition of Chuy’s also appears to be a strategic play to attract younger diners, a segment that continues to drive interest in Mexican and Teex-Mex cuisine. And examining the demographics of visitors across all Darden brands reveals that Chuy’s is particularly popular among “Young Professionals”, with 9.4% of its diners coming from trade areas classified as such by the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset.
As young diners continue to be a category of interest for Darden, the Chuy’s acquisition may be the ticket to Darden maintaining its visit dominance in the coming years.
Darden continues to drive foot traffic across its wide portfolio of brands, offering something for every kind of diner. With plans to expand its core audience underway, will the restaurant group continue to improve its monthly visits?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven dining news.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
How did the Placer 100 Index for Retail & Dining fare in August 2024? We dove into the data to find out.
The final days of summer were a critical retail moment, with all eyes on back-to-school traffic performance. Analyzing year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic performance for the Placer 100 Index for Retail and Dining shows that since May 2024, visits have been on a positive growth trajectory – reaching a summer highpoint of 3.0% in August.
Back to school, it seems, was a significant driver of retail and dining foot traffic. And recent indications that consumer confidence has turned a corner may bode well for the fast-approaching holiday season.
How much of an impact did back-to-school activity have on retail and dining visits in August 2024? Further analysis of the Placer 100 Index reveals that the top-performing metro areas last month were college towns, which suggests that a surge in students out and about – shopping for back-to-school essentials and dining out – was a likely driver of local foot traffic.
The State College, PA Metro Area, home to Penn State University, for example, saw a 14.5% YoY change in overall retail and dining visits in August 2024. And other college towns with large student populations were also top YoY visit performers during the month. Blacksburg-Christiansburg, VA (14.2%), home to Virginia Tech, Ithaca, NY (12.1%), home to Cornell University, and Bloomington, IN (12.1%), home to Indiana University Bloomington – to name a few – all experienced significant visit growth compared to August 2023.
While the Placer 100 Index experienced foot traffic gains last month, digging deeper into the data reveals that in August 2024 consumers continued to prioritize value as they dined and shopped.
In addition to rapidly growing discount grocer Aldi, four value-focused chains were among August 2024’s top YoY visit performers. Five Below (17.5%), Big Lots (15.7%), HomeGoods (13.8%), and Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (13.7%) all showed impressive YoY traffic – and three out of the four were also among the top chains in terms of YoY visit-per-location growth.
One of the biggest YoY visits and visits-per-location winners in August 2024 was Big Lots, which recently announced voluntary Chapter 11 proceedings and an ownership transition while continuing to rightsize. With soon-to-be-closed locations offering steep markdowns, the chain has been driving significant traffic. And since Big Lots offers small-ticket items as well as big-ticket home furnishings, a back-to-school push likely contributed to the chain’s jump in August visits.
HomeGoods was also among the top chains in August 2024, with both YoY visits and visits-per-location (9.8%) growth. The chain’s social media campaign featuring college students furnishing their living spaces appears to have buoyed foot traffic during the homestretch of back-to-school shopping.
With summer in the rearview mirror, the focus shifts to fall and the fast-approaching holiday season. Will retail and dining visits sustain their momentum in the critical months ahead?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
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Indoor malls and open-air centers have posted consistent YoY visit growth, outlet declines have been modest, and early 2026 data shows renewed momentum across all three formats.
Growth in short visits and extended stays – alongside declines in mid-length trips – shows that consumers are gravitating toward trips with a clear purpose, favoring either efficiency or immersion.
Rising dwell times and strong engagement from younger, contemporary households position indoor malls as leading destinations for longer, experience-driven trips.
A higher share of short, weekday visits – along with strong appeal among affluent families – underscores their role as convenient, essential retail hubs.
As off-price and online alternatives erode their treasure-hunt advantage and long-distance visitation softens, outlets face a strategic choice between deepening local relevance and reinvesting in destination appeal.
The malls that thrive will be those that intentionally optimize for convenience, experience, or a disciplined integration of both.
Despite economic headwinds, intensifying e-commerce competition, and fragile consumer confidence, shopping centers continue to defy the “dead mall” narrative – reinventing themselves and, in many cases, thriving.
What can location analytics tell us about the state of the mall in 2026? Which trends and audiences are driving their performance – and how can operators and retailers best capitalize on the opportunities within the category?
Over the past two years, both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers have posted consistent year-over-year (YoY) traffic growth. And while outlet malls experienced slight declines, the pullback was modest – signaling a period of stability rather than erosion.
Early 2026 data also points to continued momentum, with all three mall formats recording mid-single-digit YoY traffic gains in the first two months of the year. Although it’s still early days – and YoY comparisons in 2026 were boosted by an additional Saturday – the positive start suggests that the industry is entering the year on a solid footing.
With e-commerce always within reach, hybrid work anchoring more consumers at home, and ongoing economic uncertainty influencing spending decisions, trips to physical stores are becoming more intentional. Shopping center visit data reflects this shift as well, with growth in both quick convenience visits and extended experiential outings – alongside a decline in mid-length trips.
In 2025, quick trips (under 30 minutes) increased across all formats, underscoring malls’ growing role as convenient, high-utility destinations for picking up an online order, grabbing a quick bite, or making a targeted purchase. At the same time, extended visits of more than 75 minutes increased at indoor malls and open-air centers, reflecting sustained appetite for immersive, experiential outings.
Meanwhile, mid-length visits (between 30 and 75 minutes) lagged across formats – falling indoor malls and outlet malls and remaining flat at open-air centers – suggesting shoppers are losing patience with undifferentiated trips that lack a clear purpose.
Still, although short visits increased year over year across all mall types, and long visits increased for both indoor malls and open-air centers, the distribution of dwell time varies by format. Short visits make up a larger share of traffic at open-air shopping centers, for example, while longer visits account for a greater share at indoor malls. This divergence underscores the need for format-specific strategies, with operators clearly defining the core shoppers and missions they are best suited to serve and aligning tenant mix, amenities, and marketing accordingly.
Indoor malls, for instance, have increasingly positioned themselves as experiential hubs – particularly for younger consumers. Recent survey data shows that 57% of shoppers aged 18 to 34 report visiting a mall frequently or often, and they are more likely than older cohorts to arrive without a specific purchase in mind.
Foot traffic patterns reinforce this experiential appeal. In 2025, 37.6% of indoor mall visits lasted more than 75 minutes, compared to 33.4% for open-air centers and 34.6% for outlets. Indoor malls also captured the largest share of visits from the young-skewing “contemporary households” segment – singles, non-family households, and young couples without children – indicating strong resonance with younger audiences.
As indoor malls expand their experiential offerings, visit durations are rising even further – even as they hold steady or even slightly decline at other formats. For operators, this shift highlights a significant opportunity for indoor malls to deepen their role as climate-controlled third places. And for brands, it means high-impact access to Gen Z consumers in discovery mode – top-of-funnel engagement that is increasingly difficult and expensive to replicate through digital channels alone.
If indoor malls excel at capturing extended, social visits, open-air centers are finding success through convenience. In 2025, open-air centers had the highest shares of both weekday visits (64.0%) and short, sub-30 minutes (36.8%) among the three formats. Grocery anchors, superstores, and essential-service tenants like gyms – more common at open-air centers than at other formats – help drive steady, non-discretionary traffic.
Demographically, open-air centers drew the highest share of affluent families, a key demographic for daily errands. This alignment with higher-income households, combined with weekday consistency, positions open-air centers as reliable errand hubs embedded in community life.
Outlet malls, for their part, have historically differentiated themselves by offering something shoppers couldn’t find elsewhere: an experiential treasure hunt featuring brand-name merchandise at compelling prices. But the decline in long visits shown above suggests that this positioning may be coming under pressure – likely from the rise of off-price and discount chains as well as other low-cost, convenient treasure-hunt alternatives like thrift stores. When shoppers can score attractive deals online or browse for bargains at a nearby T.J. Maxx or Ollie’s Bargain Outlet, the incentive to dedicate time and travel to an outlet trip may no longer feel as compelling – especially for outlet malls’ core audience, which includes meaningful contingents of middle and lower-income consumers with families.
And data points to a subtle but steady erosion in the share of visitors willing to go the extra mile to visit outlet malls. Since 2023, the share of outlet visits from consumers traveling more than 30 miles has slipped from 33.1% to 31.8%, even as long-distance visits to other mall formats have remained relatively stable. This softening of destination demand may be contributing to outlets’ recent traffic lags.
Still, despite these lags in foot traffic, major outlet companies continue to see YoY increases in same-center tenant sales per square foot. The format’s strong visit start to 2026 also suggests that outlets still have significant draw – and that with the right strategy, they could reinvigorate their traffic trends.
One option is for outlet malls to lean further into their immediate trade areas: Nearly 20% of visits to outlets already originate within five miles – a share that edged up from 19.4% in 2023 to 19.9% in 2025. These closer shoppers may be largely responsible for the segment’s rise in short visits, pointing to an opportunity to further augment BOPIS offerings and select essential-use tenants.
Another option is to strengthen outlets’ destination appeal with distinctive retail, dining, and experiential offerings that resonate with value-oriented, larger-household shoppers. But whether they focus on convenience or on justifying the journey – or attempt to balance both – success will depend on identifying who their shoppers are and which missions they are best positioned to own.
As in other areas of retail, shopping center success increasingly depends on strategic clarity. The malls that thrive will be those that clearly define their role in their customers’ lives and execute against it with intention – whether by decisively optimizing for efficiency, fully investing in experience, or thoughtfully integrating both.
Commercial real estate in 2026 is characterized by differentiated performance across markets and asset types. Office recovery trajectories vary meaningfully by metro, retail performance reflects format-specific resilience, and domestic migration patterns continue to influence long-term demand fundamentals.
Many higher-income metros continue to trail 2019 benchmarks but drive the strongest Year-over-year gains, signaling a potential inflection in office utilization trends.
• Sunbelt markets along with New York, NY are closest to pre-pandemic office visit levels, while many coastal gateway and tech-heavy markets trail 2019 benchmarks.
• Many of the metros still furthest below pre-pandemic levels are now posting the strongest year-over-year gains.
• Leasing velocity may accelerate in coastal markets – particularly in high-quality assets – even if full recovery remains distant. The expansion of AI-driven firms and innovation-focused employers could support incremental demand in these ecosystems, reinforcing a bifurcation between top-tier buildings and the broader office inventory.
• Higher-income metros such as San Francisco show deeper structural gaps vs 2019, perhaps due to their higher concentration of hybrid-eligible workers – yet those same metros are driving the strongest YoY recovery in 2025.
• Accelerating growth in 2025 suggests that shifting employer policies, workplace enhancements, or broader labor dynamics may be beginning to drive increased in-office activity.
• Office performance in higher-income markets will increasingly depend on workplace quality and policy alignment. Assets that support premium amenities, modern design, and tenants implementing clear in-office expectations are likely to influence sustained office visits and leasing velocity in these metros.
Retail traffic is broadly improving across states, though performance varies by region and format.
• Retail traffic growth is broad-based, with the majority of states showing year-over-year gains in shopping center traffic in 2025.
• Still, even as many states are posting gains, pockets of softer performance remain – specifically in parts of the Southeast and Midwest.
• Broad-based traffic gains indicate consumer demand is more durable than anticipated. In growth states, operators can shift from defensive stabilization to capturing upside – pushing rents, upgrading tenant quality, and accelerating leasing while momentum holds. In softer markets, the focus should remain on protecting traffic through strong anchors and necessity-driven tenancy.
• Convenience-oriented formats are leading traffic growth, with strip/convenience centers materially outperforming all other shopping center types, and neighborhood and community centers also posting gains. This reinforces the strength of proximity-driven, daily-needs retail.
• Destination retail formats, including regional malls and factory outlets, continue to lag, while super-regional malls were essentially flat. Larger-format, discretionary-driven centers are not capturing the same momentum as convenience-based formats.
• The data suggests that consumer behavior continues to favor convenience, frequency, and necessity over destination-based shopping. Operators should lean into service-oriented and daily-needs tenancy in strip and neighborhood formats, while mall operators may need to further reposition assets toward experiential, mixed-use, or non-retail uses to stabilize traffic.
Domestic migration continues to reshape state-level demand, with gains clustering in select growth corridors.
• Domestic migration drove population gains in parts of the Southeast and Northern Plains, while several Western and Northeastern states show flat or negative migration.
• Some previously strong in-migration states in the South and West, including Texas and Utah, are showing softer movement, while other established migration leaders such as Florida and the Carolinas continue to attract net inbound residents.
• Migration flows are shifting relative to prior years. Operators should temper growth assumptions in states where inflows are slowing and prioritize markets where inbound demand remains strong.
• Florida dominates metro-level migration growth, with eight of the top ten U.S. metros for net domestic migration are in Florida.
• The markets with the strongest domestic migration-driven population gains are not major gateway cities but smaller, often retirement- or lifestyle-oriented metros, suggesting that migration-driven demand is increasingly flowing to secondary markets.
• CRE operators should prioritize expansion, leasing, and site selection in high-growth secondary metros where population inflows can directly translate into retail spending, housing absorption, and service demand.
1. Expanded grocery supply is increasing overall category engagement. New locations and deeper food assortments across formats are bringing shoppers into the category more often, rather than fragmenting demand.
2. Grocery visit growth is being driven by low- and middle-income households. Elevated food costs are leading to more frequent, budget-conscious trips, reinforcing grocery’s role as a non-discretionary category.
3. Short, frequent trips are a major driver of brick-and-mortar traffic growth. Fill-in shopping, deal-seeking, and omnichannel behaviors are pushing visit frequency higher, even as trip duration declines.
4. Scale is accelerating consolidation among large grocery chains. Larger retailers are using their size to invest in value, assortment, private label, and execution, allowing them to capture longer and more engaged shopping trips.
5. Both large and small grocers have viable paths to growth. Large chains are winning by competing for the full grocery list, while smaller banners can grow by specializing, owning specific missions, or offering compelling value that earns them a place in shoppers’ routines.
While much of the retail conversation going into 2026 focused on discretionary spending pressure, digital substitution, and higher-income consumers as the primary drivers of growth, grocery foot traffic tells a different story.
Rather than being diluted by new formats or eroded by e-commerce, brick-and-mortar grocery engagement is expanding. Visits are rising even as grocery supply spreads across wholesale clubs, discount and dollar stores, and mass merchants. At the same time, growth is being powered not by affluent trade areas, but by low- and middle-income households navigating higher food costs through more frequent, targeted trips. Shoppers are showing up more often and increasingly splitting their trips across retailers based on value, availability, and mission – pushing grocers to compete for portions of the grocery list instead of the full weekly basket.
The data also suggests that the largest grocery chains are capturing a disproportionate share of rising grocery demand – but the multi-trip nature of grocery shopping in 2026 means that smaller banners can still drive traffic growth. By strengthening their value proposition, specializing in specific products, or owning specific shopping missions, these smaller chains can complement, rather than compete with, larger one-stop destinations.
Ultimately, AI-based location analytics point to a clear set of grocery growth drivers in 2026: expanded supply that increases overall engagement, more frequent and mission-driven trips, and continued traffic concentration among large chains alongside new opportunities for smaller banners.
One driver of grocery growth in recent years is simply the expansion of grocery supply across multiple retail formats. Wholesale clubs are constantly opening new locations and discount and dollar stores are investing more heavily in their food selection, giving consumers a wider choice of where to shop for groceries. And rather than fragmenting demand, this broader availability appears to have increased overall grocery engagement – benefiting both dedicated grocery stores and grocery-adjacent channels.
Grocery stores continue to capture nearly half of all visits across grocery stores, wholesale clubs, discount and dollar stores, and mass merchants. That share has remained remarkably stable thanks to consistent year-over-year traffic growth – so even as grocery supply increases across categories, dedicated grocery stores remain the primary destination for food shopping.
Meanwhile, mass merchants have seen a decline in relative visit share as expanding grocery assortments at discount and dollar stores and the growing store fleets of wholesale clubs give consumers more alternatives for one-stop shopping.
While much of the broader retail conversation heading into 2026 centers on higher-income consumers carrying growth, the trend looks different in the grocery space. Recent visit trends show that grocery growth has increasingly shifted toward lower- and middle-income trade areas, underscoring the distinct dynamics of non-discretionary retail.
For lower- and middle-income shoppers, elevated food costs appear to be translating into more frequent grocery trips as consumers manage budgets through smaller baskets, deal-seeking, and shopping across retailers. In contrast, higher-income households – often cited as a key growth engine for discretionary retail – are contributing less to grocery visit growth, likely reflecting more stable shopping patterns or a greater ability to consolidate trips or shift spend online.
This means that, in 2026, grocery growth is not being propped up by high-income consumers. Instead, it is being fueled by necessity-driven shopping behavior in lower- and middle-income communities – reinforcing grocery’s role as an essential category and suggesting that similar dynamics may be at play across other non-discretionary retail segments.
Another factor driving grocery growth is the rise in short grocery visits in recent years. Between 2022 and 2025, the biggest year-over-year visit gains in the grocery space went to visits under 30 minutes, with sub-15 minute visits seeing particularly big boosts. As of 2025, visits under 15 minutes made up over 40% of grocery visits nationwide – up from 37.9% of visits in 2022.
This shift toward shorter visits – especially those under 15 minutes – is driven in part by the continued expansion of omnichannel grocery shopping, as many consumers complete larger stock-up orders online and rely on in-store trips for order collection or quick, fill-in needs. At the same time, the rise in short visits paired with consistent YoY growth in grocery traffic points to additional, behavior-driven forces at play – consumers' growing willingness to shop around at different grocery stores in search of the best deal or just-right product.
Value-conscious shoppers – particularly consumers from low- and middle-income households, which have driven much of recent grocery growth – seem to be increasingly shopping across multiple retailers to secure the best prices. This behavior often involves making targeted trips to different stores in search of the strongest deals, a pattern that is contributing to the rise in shorter, more frequent grocery visits. At the same time, other grocery shoppers are making quick trips to pick up a single ingredient or specialty item – perhaps reflecting the increasingly sophisticated home cooks and social media-driven ingredient crazes. In both these cases, speed is secondary to getting the best value or the right product.
So while some shorter visits reflect a growing emphasis on efficiency – as shoppers use in-store trips to complement primarily online grocery shopping – others appear driven by a preference for value or product selection over speed. Despite their differences, all of these behaviors have one thing in common – they're all contributing to continued growth in brick-and-mortar grocery visits. Grocers who invest in providing efficient in-store experiences are particularly well-positioned to benefit from these trends.
As early as 2022, the top 15 most-visited grocery chains already accounted for roughly half of all grocery visits nationwide. And by outpacing the industry average in terms of visit growth, these chains have continued to capture a growing share of grocery foot traffic.
This widening gap suggests that scale is increasingly enabling grocers to reinvest in the factors that attract and retain shoppers. Larger chains are better positioned to invest in broader and more differentiated product selection, stronger private-label programs that deliver quality at accessible price points, competitive pricing, and operational excellence across stores and omnichannel touchpoints. These capabilities allow top chains to serve a wide range of shopping missions – from quick, convenience-driven trips to more intentional visits in search of the right product or ingredient.
Consolidation at the top of the grocery category is reinforcing a virtuous cycle: scale enables better value, selection, and experience, which in turn draws more shoppers into stores and supports continued grocery traffic growth.
In 2025, the top 15 most-visited grocery chains accounted for a disproportionate share of visits lasting 15 minutes or more, while smaller grocers captured a larger share of the shortest trips. As shown above, larger grocery chains, which tend to attract longer visits, grew faster than the industry overall – but short visits, which skew more heavily toward smaller chains, accounted for a greater share of total traffic growth. Together, these patterns show that both long, destination trips and short, targeted visits are driving grocery traffic growth and creating viable paths forward for retailers of all sizes.
Larger chains are more likely to serve as destinations for fuller shopping missions, competing for the entire grocery list – or a significant share of it. But smaller banners can grow too by competing for more short visits. By specializing in a specific product category, owning a clearly defined shopping mission, or delivering a compelling value proposition, smaller grocers can earn a place in shoppers’ routines and become a deliberate stop within a broader grocery journey.
As grocery moves deeper into 2026, growth is being driven by the cumulative effect of how consumers are navigating food shopping today. Expanded supply has increased overall engagement, higher food costs are driving more frequent and targeted trips, and shoppers are increasingly willing to split their grocery list across retailers based on value, availability, and mission.
Looking ahead, this suggests that grocery growth will remain resilient, but unevenly distributed. Retailers that clearly understand which trips they are best positioned to win – and invest accordingly – will be best placed to capture that growth. Large chains are likely to continue benefiting from scale, consolidation, and their ability to serve full shopping missions, while smaller banners can grow by earning a defined role within shoppers’ broader grocery journeys. In 2026, success in grocery will be less about winning every trip and more about consistently winning the right ones.
