Shira Petrack

Looking Back at 2023 

Despite the inflationary headwinds that marked 2023, year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic to Indoor Malls and Open-Air Shopping Centers exceeded 2022 levels every quarter of 2023, with the two shopping center formats competing head-to-head for the top spot: Open-Air Shopping Centers outperformed Indoor Malls during the first three quarters of the year, but Indoor Malls came out ahead during the critical holiday-focused Q4. Ultimately, overall yearly visit numbers slightly favored Open-Air Shopping Centers, which finished 2023 with a 3.0% overall YoY increase in visits compared to 2.9% overall growth for Indoor Malls. 

Meanwhile, Outlet Malls struggled to keep up with the other two formats. This segment saw a 1.6% YoY decline in yearly visits in 2023, perhaps due consumers looking to save on gas expenses and avoid the typically longer driving time required to get to these types of shopping centers. 

Shopping Center Space Bounces Back From the Cold 

Visits to all three mall formats dipped YoY in January 2024, likely due to the extreme cold temperatures that swept through much of the country and to the challenging comparisons to a strong January 2023. 

But YoY foot traffic to Indoor Malls and Open-Air Shopping Centers swung positive in the second months of the year. Visits to Indoor Malls grew an impressive 6.0% relative to the same month in 2023, and foot traffic to Open-Air Shopping Centers increased 3.9% in the same period. The YoY visit gap to Outlet Malls also narrowed significantly, with foot traffic to the format just 1.6% lower than it was in February 2023, indicating that – despite predictions – 2024 consumers are still willing to spend on discretionary categories.

Uneven Comparisons to Pre-COVID Baseline 

While visits to the mall space appear to be generally growing on a YoY basis, comparing the foot traffic performance to pre-COVID visits levels reveals a more nuanced picture. Of the three shopping centers formats, Open-Air Shopping Centers drew closest to pre-COVID levels, with 2023 visits just 1.5% lower than they were in 2019. The visit gap to Indoor Malls was slightly larger, with the format attracting 4.6% fewer visits in 2023 than in 2019. And Outlet Malls appear to be having the toughest recovery, with 2023 visits to the format 9.7% lower than in 2019. 

But just because visits to the shopping center space are still catching up to 2019 levels does not mean that all is lost – a deeper dive into location intelligence data indicates that post-pandemic shopping habits are still in flux. 

Shopping Behavior Still Normalizing 

Analyzing shifts in shopping behavior in recent years reveals that many shoppers are still returning to pre-COVID behaviors. For example, comparing the share of shopping center visits between the hours of 12 PM and 4 PM in 2019, 2022, and 2023 indicates that the “new normal” of mid-day shopping sprees is on its way out. 

The share of hourly visits between 12 PM and 4 PM jumped over the pandemic thanks to consumers’ newly flexible schedules, and mid-day foot traffic to shopping centers was still higher in 2022 compared to pre-COVID. But the relative share of mid-day visits dropped from 2022 to 2023 and moved closer to 2019 levels – indicating that shopping patterns have not yet reached a post-COVID equilibrium. 

Critically, there appears to be a correlation between the return to 2019 shopping patterns and the visit recovery rate. Visits to Open-Air Shopping Centers in 2023 were almost on par with 2019 levels, and the format’s mid-day visit share was only half a percentage point higher in 2023 than in 2019. The mid-day visit share at Indoor Malls, where the year-over-four-year (Yo4Y) visit lag was slightly larger than for Open-Air Shopping Centers, was still 1.9 percentage points higher in 2023 when compared to 2019. And Outlet Malls had the largest Yo4Y visit gap along with the largest Yo4Y difference in mid-day visit share. 

This data indicates that post-pandemic shopping patterns are still dynamic – and even retail sectors that appear to have permanent COVID scars may well bounce back as consumer behavior continues to normalize. 

Shopping Center Space Well Positioned for a Strong 2024 

Despite predictions of slower consumer spending, foot traffic data indicates that demand for malls and shopping centers remains stable. Location intelligence showing strong monthly visit numbers and positive shifts in shopping behavior indicates that the shopping center space is off to a strong start in 2024. 

For more data-driven retail insights, visit our blog at placer.ai. 

This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.

Valentine’s Day presents an opportunity – or at least lays on the pressure – for coupled-up consumers to shower their significant other with chocolates, flowers, or special gifts. And while some shoppers choose to order online or visit stores ahead of time to find the perfect Valentine’s Day gift, those who forgot to plan in advance can stop by brick-and-mortar retailers the day of to ensure they don’t show up to date night empty-handed. So which industries saw the largest boost on February 14th? And how did 2024’s patterns compare to last year’s trends? We dove into the data to find out. 

Mid-Week Visit Spike 

Valentine’s Day may not be a major retail holiday – but the occasion still drives a mid-week visit boost across many retail categories, including Restaurants, Discount & Dollar Stores, Liquor Stores, Grocery, Superstores, Breakfast Shops, and Beauty & Spa. Comparing Valentine’s Day 2024 visits to average visit levels over the previous six Wednesdays reveals a significant jump in traffic compared to the typical mid-week shopping lull.

Restaurants saw the largest visit bump, with visits up 60.0% compared to the average number of Restaurant visits over the previous six Wednesdays. Others opted for a morning coffee or brunch date, driving a 19.7% increase in foot traffic to Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries, and Dessert Shops. And some consumers seem to have chosen a romantic evening, leading to surges in Grocery and Liquor Store visits. Retailers carrying affordable gifts, including Discount & Dollar Stores, Superstores, and Beauty & Spa brands also benefited from the Valentine’s Day Boost. 

And visits to the analyzed categories weren’t just up relative to the year-to-date Wednesday average – traffic across the board also rose relative to Valentine’s Day 2023, boding well for brick-and-mortar retail in 2024.

Greeting Card Retailers Seeing Massive Spikes 

Valentine’s Day is sometimes referred to – not always affectionately – as a Hallmark Holiday. And foot traffic data reveals that the day really does drive significant visit increases to Hallmark stores nationwide, with Valentine’s Day 2024 traffic up 123.2% relative to the previous six Wednesday average. The Paper Store, another major greeting card retailer, also saw a large jump in Valentine’s Day visits compared to the year-to-date same weekday average, and Walgreens and CVS – also major greeting card purveyors – received a visit boost as well. 

At the same time, Hallmark, Walgreens, and CVS did not display the same year-over-year (YoY) increases as for the other categories. Instead, YoY Valentine’s Day visits stayed relatively steady – likely due to these chains’ store fleet contractions rather than to any drop in demand. Meanwhile, Valentine’s Day visits to The Paper Store grew by 10.8% YoY – perhaps aided by the company’s expansion.

Offline Retail Facilitates Last-Minute Gift-Giving

Valentine’s Day yields a clear mid-week boost for brick-and-mortar retail, driving visits to a variety of dining and retail segments. And this year’s Valentine’s Day seems to have been particularly successful, driving YoY jumps across many major categories and brands. 

For more data-driven retail insights, visit our blog at placer.ai. 

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Sweetgreen, which IPO-ed in 2021, and CAVA – public since last year – are continuing their growth spurt. We dove into the location intelligence data to understand what is driving success for these emerging fast-casual leaders. 

Cava & sweetgreen’s Impressive Visit Growth Continues

Restaurant visit growth slowed last year as inflation took a toll on discretionary spending. But despite the wider dining deceleration, foot traffic to CAVA and sweetgreen continued to increase, helped by consistent store fleet expansion. Both chains posted year-over-year (YoY) visit gains every month of 2023, even as overall foot traffic to the fast-casual category lagged. 

The positive trends continued in the new year, when consumers braved the cold to drive a 18.4% and 22.3% YoY increase in January 2024 visits – despite the challenging comparison to an already impressive January 2023.

Higher-Income Visitor Base Helps Drive Growth

Cava and sweetgreen’s success may be attributed to a variety of factors. Both chains are known for their healthy offerings, which may attract the many consumers prioritizing health and wellness in their food choices. Plant-forward meals have also been particularly popular recently, and both CAVA and sweetgreen’s produce-heavy menus align well with this trend. 

The income level of the chains’ visitor bases may be another key driver of Cava and sweetgreen’s success. In general, the potential market trade areas of fast-casual dining chains consists of households with income (HHI) levels that are slightly above the nationwide median. The median HHI in the neighborhoods within those trade areas that feed the most visits to fast-casual chains (the chains’ captured market) is even higher. 

CAVA and sweetgreen’s potential market trade area median HHIs in 2023 was significantly higher than that in the wider fast-casual category – and the captured market median HHI was even greater. The particularly affluent visitor bases of CAVA and sweetgreen were likely less impacted by last year’s economic headwinds, which may have helped the chains continue to grow their footprint – and visit numbers – despite the wider challenges in the space.

Appeal to Singles

The similarities between CAVA and sweetgreen extend beyond their high-income visitor bases and shared emphasis on healthy options – both chains also seem to attract a particularly high share of singles. CAVA and sweetgreen’s captured market trade area include 37.9% and 42.3% of one-person and non-family households, respectively, compared to to an average of 34.1% for the wider Fast-Casual category.

Diving into the psychographics confirms this pattern. The two chains’ captured markets include a larger percentage of Educated Urbanites, defined by Spatial.ai: PersonaLive as “Well educated young singles living in dense urban areas working relatively high paying jobs.” Young Professionals, defined as “Well-educated young professionals starting their careers in white-collar or technical jobs” and having an average household size of 1, are also overrepresented for CAVA and sweetgreen’s relative to the wider Fast-Casual category. 

The large share of singles in these chains’ trade areas – especially combined with the high median HHI – likely means that CAVA and sweetgreen visitors have fewer overall expenses and fairly large discretionary budgets which can be spent on dining out. 

CAVA & sweetgreen Positioned for Success in 2024

CAVA and sweetgreen thrived in 2023 and appears poised to continue growing in 2024, with visits to both chains skyrocketing even as foot traffic growth tapered off in the wider dining industry. And the company’s success in attracting high-income visitors from small households – who likely have the funds to continue spending on non-essentials despite the ongoing headwinds – means that both companies are well positioned for continued strength in the new year. 

For more data-driven restaurant and dining insights, visit our blog at placer.ai.

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With shopping center vacancy rates now lower than they were pre-COVID, we dove into the demographic and psychographic trade area data for leading Indoor Malls, Open-Air Shopping Centers, and Outlet Malls to understand who visited malls in 2023. 

Shopping Center Types Draw a Variety of Audiences 

Diving into the demographics of the trade areas of the various mall types in 2023 reveal both similarities and differences between the typical visitor to Indoor Malls, Open-Air Shopping Centers, and Outlet Malls. 

In all three mall types, the median trade area household income (HHI) in the three mall types was higher than the nationwide median HHI of $69.5K (according to the STI: Popstats 2022 dataset). But Open-Air Shopping Centers drew the highest income visitors, with a trade area median HHI of $87.8K in 2023. The trade area of Open-Air Shopping Centers also had the lowest share of Households with Children and the highest share of singles (One-Person and Non-Family Households). 

Outlet Malls lay at the other end of the spectrum, with a trade area median trade HHI of $73.9K, the highest share of Households with Children, and the lowest share of single households. And the median HHI and household composition for the trade area of Indoor Malls stood between those of the other two types. 

Different Family Segments for Different Mall Types

Even though Outlet Malls tend to draw the highest, and Open-Air Shopping Centers draw the lowest share of family visitors (Households with Children), diving deeper into various family segments reveals a more nuanced picture. 

For example, the trade areas of Outlet Malls do indeed contain the highest shares of the “Family Union” and “Promising Families” segments – defined by Experian: Mosaic as blue-collar families and young families in starter homes, respectively. But Open-Air Shopping Centers tend to draw the highest share of the more affluent “Flourishing Families” segment – perhaps thanks to the Open-Air Shopping Centers’ higher trade area median HHI. 

So while the demographic analysis can provide an overall snapshot of the various mall types’ audience, diving into the psychographics can yield a higher-resolution picture of the types of shoppers frequenting each shopping center category. 

Looking Ahead to 2024 

For the most part, malls – especially Indoor Malls and Open-Air Shopping Centers – succeeded in exceeding or staying close to 2022 visit levels last year, despite the economic headwinds. And while January data indicates that the space may be entering a challenging period, there are plenty of reasons to think that the dip in early 2024 foot traffic is just a temporary setback driven by a unique set of circumstances. As the year continues to unfold, tracking visits in this sector will offer more insights into the state of the 2024 consumer. 

For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/blog. 

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How did Target, Walmart, Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s Wholesale Club perform offline last year? Who visited the chains in 2023? And what does 2024 have in store for the space? We dove into the foot traffic and trade area composition data to find out. 

Strong Year for the Superstore Space 

The superstore and wholesale space performed well across the board in 2023, with leading retailers seeing consistent year-over-year (YoY) quarterly visit growth throughout the year. Costco led the pack in terms of overall YoY visit performance, followed by Sam’s Club and BJ’s Wholesale Club. The wholesale clubs’ strength may be due in part to the chains’ attractive gas prices, which were likely particularly tempting to 2023 consumers looking to stretch their budget. 

Visits to Target also remained above the chain’s 2022 baseline during all four quarters, and Walmart – which closed several stores last year – mostly beat its 2022 visit performance, with the exception of Q4 where traffic remained essentially on par with last year’s levels. 

January 2024 Visits Mostly On Par with 2023 Performance 

Visits to four out of five of the analyzed superstores and wholesale clubs dipped slightly in January 2024 relative to January 2023, perhaps due to comparisons to a strong Q1 2023 performance or to post-holidays consumer cutbacks. But despite the challenging circumstances, the YoY drops remained minimal – so the softer start to the year is not necessarily an indication of things to come. 

And in contrast to the subdued visit performance in the rest of the category, Costco foot traffic exceeded its January 2023 visit baseline – revealing the potential for the superstore space to grow in a positive direction in 2024.

Monthly Visit Trends Vary Among Chains

Analyzing monthly visits to leading superstore and wholesale clubs in 2023 compared to each chain’s monthly visit average reveals different consumer patterns for each brand. 

While all chains saw their monthly visits peak in December, Target experienced the most significant holiday peak, with a 33.9% increase in monthly visits compared to its 2023 monthly average – more than double the increases of the other four chains analyzed. Target also saw the strongest August visit growth relative to its 2023 monthly average as parents and students likely flocked to the chain in search of Back-to-School apparel and supplies. 

In June and July, Walmart’s relative visit growth exceeded that of the other four chains – possible thanks to consumers stocking up on summer supplies. And the wholesale clubs saw larger relative increases in November, as those chains’ bulk grocery offerings may have helped consumers shop for a crowd ahead of Thanksgiving dinner.

Who Shops at Superstores & Wholesale Clubs? 

The trade areas of all five chains analyzed included a higher share of Households with Children when compared to the nationwide average. But the two superstore brands – Walmart and Target – also had larger percentages of 1-Person and Non-Family (roommate) Households when compared to the nationwide average, while the three wholesale clubs had smaller shares. 

So while average wholesale clubs and their large selection of bulk packaged items cater primarily to families, superstores seem to attract a wider range of shoppers, including consumers shopping for one and living alone or with roommates. 

Differences Between the Chains 

Diving into the psychographic composition of the trade areas highlights additional differences between the various chains’ audiences. 

The trade areas of Walmart and of its subsidiary Sam’s Club had the highest share of  Spatial.ai: PersonaLive’s small town and rural audience segments, including “Small Town Low Income,” “Rural Low Income,” “Rural Average Income,” and “Rural High Income.” 

Suburban segments were more distributed. Walmart and Sam’s Club served a higher share of “Blue Collar Suburbs” while Target and Costco drew more “Wealthy Suburban Families” – and BJ’s Wholesale Club received the largest percentage of “Upper Suburban Diverse Families.” 

BJ’s trade area also included the largest shares of almost all the urban segments with the exception of “Educated Urbanites” – defined by Spatial.ai as “well educated young singles living in dense urban areas working relatively high paying jobs” – for which Target came out on top.

Looking Ahead to 2024

The leading superstore and wholesale clubs performed well in 2023 as consumers relied on their bulk-packaging and value-pricing to stretch their increasingly strained budgets. 

What does 2024 have in store? Visit the placer.ai blog to find out. 

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Just as the dining space was beginning to recover from the COVID pandemic, the ongoing inflation brought a fresh set of challenges to the sector in 2022 and 2023. How did the headwinds impact Burger King, Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen, Taco Bell, KFC, and other leading brands from the RBI and Yum! Portfolio? We dove into the data to find out. 

RBI & Yum! 2023 Foot Traffic Recap

Restaurant Brands International (RBI) and Yum! Brands each own three QSR banners along with one fast-casual chain. RBI owns the Burger King, Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen, and Tim Hortons brands as well as fast-casual sub chain Firehouse Subs. Yum! Brands operates the KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell fast-food banners and the fast-casual The Habit Burger Grill. 

Both companies’ banners saw year-over-year (YoY) growth in Q1 2023, likely aided by favorable comparisons to an Omicron-plagued Q1 2022. And although traffic dropped off as the year went on – perhaps due to consumers cutting back on dining out – the dip was subdued, with visits staying relatively close to 2022 levels. 

RBI’s banners ended the year with just a 2.5% YoY dip in Q4 2023, although Firehouse Subs, Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen, and Tim Hortons all saw positive visit growth for three out of four quarters of 2023. 

Following three quarters of YoY visit growth for the Pizza Hut banner and for the company as a whole, Yum! Brands also began feeling the impact of the consumer spending contraction, with the company’s Q4 2023 foot traffic performance 3.7% lower, on average, than in 2022.

Who Visits Yum! and RBI Banners? 

The wider QSR space tends to serve trade areas composed of Census Block Groups with an overall median household income (HHI) that is lower than the median HHI nationwide ($63.2K for QSR compared with $69.5K nationwide). And the median HHI in the trade areas of Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, KFC, Burger King, Tim Hortons, and Popeyes is even lower than the median HHI in the wider QSR space. 

The relatively low median HHI in the trade areas of RBI and Yum! Brands’ QSR banners means that visitors to these chains may be feeling particularly frugal, which could explain the slight dips in foot traffic towards the end of 2023. 

But some of these brands are already implementing changes to woo back their budget-conscious customers. Taco Bell recently unveiled a new value menu that includes some items priced at $1.99, and several other chains in the Yum! and RBI portfolio have launched national campaigns advertising wallet-friendly promotions – which may well bring foot traffic back up in 2024. 

Yum! & RBI QSR Banners Draw More Singles

QSR chains seem particularly attractive to singles, with the trade area of the average QSR brand containing a larger share of one-person and non-family (roommate) households compared to the nationwide average (33.8% to 33.2%). And analyzing the household composition of the QSR banners of RBI and Yum! reveals that the trade areas of these brands tend to include an even larger share of one-person and non-family households than the wider QSR industry. (Pizza Hut is the sole exception, with one-person and non-family households making up 33.6% of households in its trade area – slightly less than the QSR industry average of 33.8%, but still more than the nationwide average of 33.2%.)

The trade areas of QSR brands also tend to include a greater share of large households (households of four or more people) compared to the percentage of 4+ person households nationwide. But Yum! And RBI banners (with the exception of Popeyes) seem to serve fewer 4+ person households compared to the QSR average (although Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, KFC, Burger King, and Tim Hortons still have more 4+ person households in the trade areas compared to the nationwide average.)

This trade area demographic data could help Yum! and RBI plan their 2024 promotions – discounts on larger orders could be particularly appealing to Popeyes diners, but may not necessarily drive demand among the visitor base of the other QSR banners. At the same time, all brands analyzed may benefit from offering value-priced individual items that can help singles living alone or with roommates budget smartly.

RBI & Yum! In 2024

With food-away-from-home prices expected to increase in 2024, chains that offer low-cost options are likely to see a resurgence – and RBI and Yum! may well benefit from consumers’ continued thriftiness.