Shira Petrack

Why has Old Navy introduced occasionwear? Examining the product selection available at the six brick-and-mortar apparel chains most frequently visited by Old Navy visitors (T.J. Maxx, Kohl’s, Marshalls, Ross Dress for Less, DICK’s Sporting Goods, and Macy’s) can shed light on the apparel needs of Old Navy’s consumer base. 

Old Navy shoppers seem to like activewear – all six of Old Navy’s biggest brick-and-mortar competitors in the apparel space carry a large selection of sportswear and athleisure. In fact, the apparel selection at DICK’s Sporting Goods – the fifth most frequently visited chain among Old Navy visitors – is limited to only athletic wear. Old Navy already holds a strong competitive position in this category with its popular activewear collection. 

But some Old Navy shoppers may be visiting brick-and-mortar apparel chains in search of the perfect evening dress – five of the top six retailers competing with Old Navy for apparel visits carry evening wear. So expanding its product line to include prom dresses and similar items may help Old Navy recapture some of the traffic lost to competitors from customers in search of occasionwear.

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American Dream hosted the first ever JonasCon on March 23rd, 2025. How did the event impact visitation trends, and what does the success of JonasCon mean for the future of malls? We dove into the data to find out.  

American Dream’s Bet on Experiential Finally Paying Off

American Dream has emphasized the experiential potential of malls from its inception. The massive shopping, dining, and leisure venue includes a vast array of indoor and outdoor entertainment facilities such as a water park, an indoor ski slope, and an aquarium as well as numerous stores and restaurants. And although the mall – which opened just before the COVID pandemic – has dealt with its share of setbacks, recent data suggests that American Dream has turned a corner, with leasing picking up and year-over-year quarterly visits positive throughout 2024.

JonasCon Drives Crowds to American Dream 

American Dream’s position as both a mall and an entertainment complex along with its location in New Jersey – the Jonas Brothers’ home state – made it the natural choice to host JonasCon, a one-day fan convention on March 23rd, 2025 celebrating the band’s twentieth anniversary. 

The event proved to be a major success, with visits to American Dream surging 146.5% higher than the YTD average and 72.8% higher than a YTD Sunday. Visitors during JonasCon also stayed significantly longer in the mall, with the average visit on March 23rd lasting 220 minutes – almost four hours – compared to an average stay of 141 minutes for the YTD.

Out-of-Town Visits Spike 

The JonasCon visit spike was driven in part by own-of-towners making the trip especially for the event. On March 23rd, over 25% of visitors to American Dream came from at least 50 miles away, compared to just 17.9% of visitors coming from 50+ miles away for the YTD average. The surge in overall visits, the extended dwell time, and the significant influx of out-of-towners directly translated to increased opportunities for spending across the entire venue.

Affluent Singles Came Out for JonasCon

The event also seems to have attracted more singles from more affluent households compared to American Dream’s regular visitor base: The mall’s trade area on March 23rd included fewer households with children and more one person and non-family households compared to the YTD average, and the trade area median household income (HHI) stood at $93.0K compared to the $89.9K median HHI for the YTD. 

The popularity of JonasCon among the coveted demographic of affluent singles highlights how malls can target certain audiences by organizing specific happenings. Most malls offer something for everyone – American Dream in particular has a range of offerings for different age groups and at different price points, including a variety of free exhibits. But while providing options for almost any consumer creates the potential for a large and varied visitor base, certain demographics might need an extra nudge to come through the door for the first time. Offering unique experiences can help malls bring in certain groups of consumers that may be underrepresented in the mall’s regular visitor base – perhaps fostering return visits and growing their regular audience.

What Does JonasCon’s Success Mean for the Future of Malls? 

Through JonasCon, American Dream has once again cemented its position at the forefront of the experiential mall movement. The venue represents a broader trend as some malls evolve beyond transactional spaces to become centers of shared experience – whether through built-in elements or by offering unique experiences through one-off entertainment and events. 

The success of JonasCon along with the ongoing visit growth at American Dream highlights the current consumer appetite for exciting and engaging offline experiences – and malls are extremely well positioned to meet this demand. 

For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai. 

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Dollar Tree's recently announced plan to sell Family Dollar at a significant loss is another sign of the recent struggles in the discount and dollar store sector, highlighted by last year’s closure of 99 Cents Only and Big Lots' bankruptcy filing. We dove into the data to understand what is driving Dollar Tree’s decision and what this means for Family Dollar moving forward.  

Growth Decelerating for Wider Discount & Dollar Store Category

The discount & dollar store category had been on the rise before the pandemic, and COVID gave the segment another considerable boost – in part thanks to discount and dollar stores’ designation as “essential retailers” that could remain open during lockdowns. Category leaders Dollar General and Dollar Tree continued their aggressive fleet expansions to meet the growing consumer demand, which led to a substantial overall increase in visits to the category. 

But zooming in on 2024 data suggests that visit growth to the category is slowing down. Although discount & dollar stores are holding on to their pandemic gains – traffic to the segment is still 57.8% higher than it was in 2017 – year-over-year (YoY) growth is slowing, with 2024 visits up 2.8% compared to 2023, in contrast to 2022 and 2023’s YoY jumps of 7.8% and 7.7%, respectively. 

This deceleration of growth is not in itself worrisome – no retail category can sustain rapid growth indefinitely. But the visit trends do signal that discount & dollar store leaders seeking an edge over the competition will need to adopt more strategic approaches and avoid allocating resources to overly risky ventures.

Dollar Tree Thrived While Family Dollar Lagged Behind 

Overall visits to the Dollar Tree brand were already on the rise prior to COVID and skyrocketed over the pandemic – leading to a 60.1% increase in overall visits between 2017 and 2024. But, like with the wider category, traffic growth to Dollar Tree seems to be decelerating – the banner posted a 5.4% YoY increase in visits in 2024 compared to a 13.9% YoY increase in 2023.

But Family Dollar lagged behind, apparently immune to the COVID-driven dollar store visit surge. Traffic to the chain in 2024 was down 4.0% YoY and just 3.6% higher than it was in 2017. And although Dollar Tree’s decision to close nearly 1000 Family Dollar stores appears to be bearing fruit – in 2024, average visits per venue were up 1.7% YoY and 16.9% relative to the 2017 baseline – the improvement seems to have been insufficient to prevent the banner’s sale.

What Hampered Family Dollar’s Growth? 

Family Dollar has faced plenty of difficulties in the last several years, so it’s difficult to attribute Dollar Tree’s offloading of the banner to a single factor. Still, one major element that likely hurt the brand’s performance was the intensified competition from other discount and dollar store leaders – including from sister banner Dollar Tree. 

Family Dollar visitors have always been keen Walmart shoppers – since 2019, over 90% of Family Dollar yearly visitors also visited Walmart, and these cross-visit trends have remained relatively stable over the past six years. Other dollar stores were not always as popular with Family Dollar shoppers – in 2019, less than two-thirds of Family Dollar visitors also visited a Dollar Tree or a Dollar General. But as those chains grew, so did their appeal to Family Dollar shoppers – by 2024, over three-quarters of Family Dollar visitors also visited Dollar Tree or Dollar General – and this increased competition likely hampered Family Dollar’s growth.

Family Dollar Can Fill a Unique Niche in the Dollar Store Space

Still, despite the increasingly competitive discount and dollar store space, analyzing Family Dollar’s trade area composition reveals that the chain fills a unique niche within the broader discount retail sector. 

Family Dollar tends to attract the least affluent visitor base – the median household income (HHI) in the chain’s captured market trade area is $53.9K, compared to $67.6K, $61.8K, and $68.7K for Walmart, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree, respectively. Family Dollar’s captured market also includes the highest share of urban areas, with 36.9% of its trade area defined as “Urban Periphery” or “Principal Urban Center” by the Esri: Tapestry Segmentation database. 

Family Dollar can draw on its distinctive position as an urban-based retailer catering to value-seeking consumers to set itself apart from the competition and lay the groundwork for a successful resurgence.

Family Dollar’s Path to a Comeback

Although Family Dollar was sold at a substantial discount from its original purchase price, the chain still has a promising opportunity to re-establish itself as a powerful contender in the discount retail landscape. By prioritizing locations in urban areas that are less exposed to direct competition from the other major players and keeping its prices competitive with those of other dollar and discount retailers, Family Dollar can lay the groundwork for a successful resurgence. 

For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai 

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Recently, Target announced plans to add around 2,000 items to its baby and toddler assortment, with the goal of "supporting families throughout the parenting journey with products that bring joy and convenience to their everyday lives.” 

The data suggests that Target shoppers are likely to react positively to this expanded baby assortment: Layering Placer.ai's trade area data with Spatial.ai's psychographic segmentation shows that Target's trade area is over-indexed for a range of family-oriented consumer segments, and affluent families in particular account for a significant share of Target's captured market. An expanded baby assortment is therefore likely to appeal to much of Target’s visitor base.

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The Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index: The office building index analyzes foot traffic data from some 1,000 office buildings across the country. It only includes commercial office buildings, and commercial office buildings with retail offerings on the first floor (like an office building that might include a national coffee chain on the ground floor). It does NOT include government buildings or mixed-use buildings that are both residential and commercial.

Slow Start for the 2025 Office Recovery 

While headlines trumpeting an imminent return to traditional office life fueled by corporate mandates have become increasingly common in recent months, ground-level data reveals a more complex reality. Office building foot traffic indicates that the office recovery has slowed, with February visits down by 36.3% compared to pre-pandemic levels in February 2019. This data suggests that despite top-down pressure and RTO mandates at several major U.S. companies, hybrid and remote work models remain widespread.

New York and Miami Lead the RTO Recovery

Diving into the market-level data reveals that the nationwide average office occupancy metric was driven by relatively significant visit gaps across most analyzed cities, with the exception of New York City and Miami that continued to lead the return to office (RTO) trends, followed by Atlanta. Houston, Washington D.C., and Dallas all experienced year-over-five-year (Yo5Y) visit gaps of 34.6% to 38.4% – close to the nationwide average – while the Yo5Y office visit gaps for Boston, Los Angeles, and Denver was 43.5%, 45.1%, and 46.6%, respectively.

But one metric did stand out in the February data that could hint at a relatively localized RTO acceleration. For the first time since we started tracking the post-pandemic office recovery, San Francisco (47.5% Yo5Y visit gap) outperformed Chicago (48.5%) – perhaps indicating that RTO mandates in the tech world are beginning to move the needle in the country’s tech capital.

YoY Data Also Points to a Stalling Recovery 

The slowing return to office (RTO) trends also emerge when analyzing the year-over-year (YoY) data. Although some visit gaps were to be expected given the comparison to a 29 day February in 2024, most cities – with the exception of Miami, Boston, and San Francisco – saw a larger dip in office visits than the approximately 3.5% visit gap that could be attributed to the calendar shift. 

The dip in office visits compared to 2024 suggests that the RTO mandates are not having a significant impact on office occupancy patterns in most major cities and further underscore the enduring impact of remote and hybrid work models.

A Still Evolving Office Landscape 

The RTO data reveals a complex and evolving landscape shaped by both corporate directives and the enduring preferences of a workforce that has experienced the flexibility and autonomy of remote work. At the same time, disparities between major cities – with New York and Miami in the lead and Chicago and San Francisco lagging behind – highlight the influence of local economic factors, industry concentrations, and perhaps even cultural preferences on office occupancy. As businesses continue to navigate this transition, a deeper understanding of these regional nuances and of the underlying drivers of in-person work will be crucial for companies looking to formulate RTO policies that best serve their broader goals. 

For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai. 

Mall Visits Held Steady in February 

Last year was a leap year, so February 2025 had one less day than February 2024 – leading to dips in year-over-year (YoY) monthly comparisons across the board, including in the mall space.

But comparing YoY at average daily visits – a more accurate analysis of YoY performance when comparing a regular year to a leap year – reveals that visits to indoor malls and open-air shopping centers held relatively stable in February 2025, despite the sharp drop in consumer confidence. And both mall types outperformed the wider retail YoY average – highlighting the ongoing resilience of the retail format.

Meanwhile, outlet malls continued lagging behind both overall retail numbers and the other two mall types. This mall type tends to attract a slightly lower-income visitor base, which could be more susceptible to economic uncertainties – and outlet mall shoppers may have avoided long travels in the cold, preferring to look for discounted items online or in off-price stores closer to home.

Valentine’s Day Boost

Malls’ unique position as both shopping centers and entertainment hubs likely contributed to malls’ stable February visitation patterns amidst the wider consumer headwinds. All three mall types saw significant visit increases on Valentine’s Day (February 14th) along with a rise in the share of evening (7 PM to 10 PM) visits. At the same time, only outlet malls saw a slight increase in the share of shorter visits (under 30 minutes) on Valentine’s Day.

This data suggests that malls played a role in many consumers’ Valentine’s Day celebrations – both in serving as a one-stop shop for gifts and as a centralized place with a variety of dining and entertainment options for the perfect Valentine’s date night.

Malls’ Enduring Draw 

The steady February foot traffic coupled with strong engagement on key holidays like Valentine’s Day underscores the enduring role of malls as more than just shopping destinations. As we move further into 2025, the ability of malls to adapt and cater to evolving consumer behaviors will remain a critical factor in their continued success.

For more data-driven retail insights visit placer.ai.