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In December 2023, Placer.ai released two white papers: How Physical Stores Help DNBs Thrive and East Coast Migration Hubs. Below is a taste of our findings. To read more data-driven consumer research, visit our library.
DNBs – Digitally Native Brands – refer to retailers that began their retail journey exclusively online, selling their product line direct-to-consumers through their owned digital channel. But although all these businesses start out as a pure e-commerce play, many DNBs eventually move offline, choosing to leverage the various benefits of brick-and-mortar channels to grow their business even further.
Analyzing year-over-year (YoY) data for Q3 2023 shows that, while many retailers struggled, DNB leaders such as Vuori, Allbirds, Everlane, and Warby Parker all saw significant growth in quarterly visits per venue. Many of these brands also underwent significant expansions, but the increase in visits per venue reveals that many of the DNBs are seeing more crowded stores despite the increase in number of overall venues. The success of these brands in operating stores that consumers want to keep visiting – even in times of economic headwinds – suggests that DNBs are particularly well positioned to take advantage of the diverse benefits of offline stores.
How Physical Stores Help DNBs Thrive uses location intelligence to reveal the different brick-and-mortar strategies helping DNBs broaden their reach, build their brand, and acquire new audiences. Several DNBs are building massive store fleets, while others focus on a couple well-placed stores – and some focus on temporary pop-ups to reap the benefits of physical stores without the long-term commitment.
Read the full report here to discover the diverse methods that digitally native brands are enlisting to to drive growth through brick-and-mortar expansion.
Much has been written about the recent population outflows from New York, Massachusetts, and other northeastern states. But many states on the East Coast – including Maine, Vermont, Rhode Island, Delaware, North and South Carolina, and Florida – are actually seeing influxes of newcomers.
Each of these states – and each of the metropolitan areas attracting relocators within them – offers its own set of benefits. But those willing to make the move often fit a similar profile – younger individuals or families looking for a more favorable housing market, better schools, or more job opportunities.
East Coast Migration Hubs looks at several states and metro areas on the East Coast to explore the factors driving migration to these emerging hubs. Using location data to understand who is moving, and harnessing Niche’s Neighborhood Grades dataset to identify differences between origin and destination areas, the report seeks to shed light on recent domestic migration trends in the Eastern United States.
Read the full report here to discover the factors driving domestic migration to several popular relocation destinations on the East Coast.
For more data-driven consumer research, visit our library.
Last year was marked by inflation and consumer cutbacks as shoppers adjusted to price hikes across key retail and dining categories. But despite the challenges, many categories and retailers not only weathered the storm but positively thrived under the ongoing headwinds.
Now, with a new year offering fresh opportunities for growth, what are the retail and dining segments positioned for success in 2024? We dove into the data to find out.
Last year’s high grocery prices led to a surge in foot traffic to affordable supermarket chains – but food-away-from-home inflation also seems to have driven visits to high-end grocers. Visits to chains such as New York-based Uncle Giuseppe’s, Illinois-based Cermak Fresh Market, and California-based Lazy Acres saw consistent year-over-year (YoY) visit increases as consumers sought specialty ingredients to recreate restaurant-quality dishes at home. Rising interest in sustainability, natural products, and organic ingredients – especially among Gen-Z – likely helped drive traffic growth as well.
But the success of specialty grocers isn’t just coming from singles willing to splurge on the latest influencer-backed food trend – trade area demographic data reveals that families with children are overrepresented in the captured market trade area of all three specialty grocers analyzed. With restaurant prices likely increasing slightly in 2024, consumers looking to feed their families tasty dishes without breaking the bank – or shoppers feeding the growing demand for natural food products – will likely keep visits to specialty grocers high in the coming year.
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Along with the rise in specialty grocers selling natural and organic ingredients, restaurants focusing on whole, healthy foods are also seeing a boost – and the segment is positioned for further growth in 2024. Consumers are flocking to concepts such as Mendocino Farms, honeygrow, and Crisp & Green that boast fresh ingredients and made-from-scratch dishes – and these chains are all expanding to meet the growing demand.
Visits to healthy dining concepts are no longer reserved for special occasions – weekday foot traffic is also on the rise, with all three dining brands analyzed seeing a YoY rise in the share of Monday to Friday visits. With employees slowly but surely returning to the office and looking to grab a nutritious lunch mid-day or meet up with friends for a balanced dinner on their way home, demand for health-focused dining concepts is likely to continue growing in 2024.
Dave’s Hot Chicken was one of 2023’s biggest dining success stories, and the chain was not the only fried chicken franchise attracting significant foot traffic. Raising Cane’s, which has been on a roll for several years, and Huey Magoo’s Chicken Tenders – which serves grilled chicken and other fare alongside its signature fried tenders – are also taking the country by storm.
Foot traffic to the chains surged in 2023, driven in part by aggressive expansions. But zooming into November 2023 data reveals that average visits per venue are also up YoY, despite all three brands’ much larger store fleets – indicating that the fried chicken boom is meeting a ready demand. It seems, then, that while some diners will favor healthy foods in the new year, other consumers are likely to continue driving visits to fried chicken chains in 2024.
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Fried chicken isn’t the only indulgence positioned to thrive in 2024. Other affordable luxuries raked in visits last year and are likely to continue seeing growth in the year ahead.
Although inflation appears to be cooling, prices across many goods and services still remain elevated, with some shoppers still putting off large purchases. But consumers are willing to splurge on small treats that won’t break the bank, and tasty snacks and food items – from craft doughnuts to gourmet deli sandwiches to specialty coffee concoctions – could provide the perfect affordable and guilt-free pick-me-up. Parlor Doughnuts, Pickleman’s Gourmet Cafe, and Dutch Bros. Coffee are some of the chains that benefited from this trend in 2023 and will likely continue to grow in the new year.
The trade areas of the three chains analyzed all include a larger-than-average share of “non-family households” – people living with unrelated individuals. As high housing costs continue to lead more U.S. adults to live with roommates, the number of consumers looking to escape their daily grind with an affordable indulgence is likely to increase in 2024 – and drive even larger visit surges to chains offering budget-friendly treats.
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Non-comestible affordable indulgence such as tanning salons, hair-removal parlors, and eyelash salons are also seeing a rise in visits that will likely continue in the coming year. Deka Lash, Tan Republic, Glo Tanning, and LaserAway are some of the chains that saw their YoY visits increase significantly in 2023, and the growth does not appear to be slowing down.
All four chains’ trade areas included a larger share of Gen-Z visitors (aged 18-24) than the share of 18-24 year olds nationwide. And since, despite inflation, younger shoppers tend to spend more than the average American on beauty and self care – and Gen Z’s spending power is only expected to grow in the coming year – personal grooming chains are well positioned to succeed even further in 2024.
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Another personal care-adjacent segment slated for growth in 2024 is themed fitness. Gyms and studios that focus on a particular type of activity or fitness regimen – such as climbing, yoga, pilates, or HIIT are seeing their visits skyrocket, with both the number of monthly visits and the average visit frequency on the rise YoY.
The rising popularity of themed fitness concepts may be aided by the sense of community fostered by many of these chains. Touchstone Climbing organizes meetup groups geared towards specific audiences, while F45 Training prides itself on facilitating a sense of purpose and belonging among its members. And yoga and pilates classes have long been recognized for their capacity for connection-building.
With loneliness on the rise and many consumers looking to incorporate a fun, social element into their fitness routines, the demand for themed fitness concepts will likely keep on growing in 2024.
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Cost-effectiveness does not necessarily mean cheap. And while some retail segments to watch in 2024 stand out for their low price points, other segments that offer consumers a particularly strong value proposition also appear well positioned to thrive in the coming year. Chains such as Theory, Anthropologie, and Marine Layer all saw YoY increases in monthly visits every month of 2023, perhaps aided by the “quiet luxury” trend that drove demand for high-quality, non-ostentatious fashion. And while these brands may not offer the cheapest price, the focus on good craftsmanship and premium fabrics may help consumers feel better about shelling out a little more for each item.
All three brands analyzed have a significant presence in California. Diving into their captured market in the Golden State reveals that visitors to these upscale apparel retailers tend to be wealthier and are more likely to live alone when compared to the average California resident. So even as many companies look to cater to the increasing share of budget-conscious consumers, other retailers willing to invest in quality materials and offer a premium customer experience can still thrive in 2024 by meeting the needs of more affluent audiences.
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From healthy foods to fried fare, and from affordable treats to higher-priced apparel, the diversity of retail and dining segments to watch in 2024 highlights the many opportunities for success in the coming year. Where will visits skyrocket? Which brands will hit it out of the park?
Visit placer.ai/blog to find out.
Streets adorned in holiday lights, bustling Christmas stores and pop-ups, and local festivals all make the holiday season a truly magical time of year. So with Christmas in the rearview mirror, we dug into the data to explore some of the most beloved holiday spots throughout the country. Who visits Christmas stores? How do holiday events affect foot traffic to local hangouts? And what impact do annual parades have on major retail corridors like Chicago’s Mag Mile?
We dove into the data to find out.
Bronner’s Christmas Wonderland in Frankenmuth, MI is the biggest Christmas store in the country – nay, the world. Spanning some 27 acres, the store carries everything from personalized holiday ornaments to Christmas trees. And the venue, which is open 361 days a year, has emerged as a true destination, where visitors can enjoy a taste of the holiday spirit and load up on all their Christmas essentials.
People visit Bronner’s all year round – but foot traffic to the store really picks up during the holiday season: Between November 1st and December 21st, 2023, the holiday wonderland drew a stunning 438.0% more daily visits, on average, than it did between January and October of this year.
Drilling down deeper into the data shows that much of this visit bump is driven by locals, who flock to Bronner’s during the Christmas season. Throughout the year, Bronner’s draws tourists from all over the country – and in the summer, most visits to the shop are by shoppers living more than 100 miles away. Individuals living within 100 miles of Bronner’s tend to visit closer to Christmas, when the time comes to stock up on supplies for the holiday. And as the holiday approaches, the share of true locals in Bronner’s visitor base – i.e. those living less than 50 miles away from the store – increases significantly.
As the Yuletide season kicks into gear, special holiday-themed pop-ups and happenings also spring up throughout the country, with bars, malls, and restaurants all hosting special events filled with holiday cheer.
One venue that goes all out for the holidays is Mozart’s Coffee Roasters, the lakeside Austin, TX coffee shop that’s been a local landmark since 1993. With free wifi, expansive seating, and bottomless coffee, Mozart’s is the perfect place for remote employees to get some work done. And with hundreds of artists performing at the venue each year and a weekly open mic night, it’s also a great place to go out in the evenings. In the run-up to Christmas, Mozart’s hosts its famed annual holiday lights show, replete with a Bavarian Marketplace, a silent disco, and this year, an actual piece of Taylor Swift’s dance floor.
During the light show, Mozart’s is positively teeming with customers: Since the start of the event this year (November 9th), the coffee shop drew 104.3% more daily visitors, on average, than it did between January 7th (the end of last year’s show) and November 8th, 2023. And unsurprisingly, foot traffic data shows that most of this visit bump is driven by evening customers: During most of the year, the majority of visits to Mozart’s take place before 6:00 PM, with 24.4% concentrated in the morning hours. But when the festival kicks off, this pattern reverses – with 66.7% of visits taking place between 6:00 PM and midnight.
Local parades and festivals are another mainstay of the holiday season. From New York’s iconic Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade to the Hollywood Christmas Parade in Los Angeles, cities across America draw massive crowds to streets decked out with holiday cheer.
One of the nation’s most timeless Christmas celebrations is Chicago’s Wintrust Magnificent Mile Lights Festival – an all-day bonanza that features a slew of booths and activities, a televised parade, and an impressive fireworks display. The festival, which famously illuminates the city with a million lights, is one of the Mag Mile’s prime events of the year. And comparing November 18th, 2023 foot traffic to the popular Chicago retail corridor – the day of the big event – to a September 1st 2023 baseline, shows that the festivities generated a tremendous 179.5% visit spike.
And a look at the demographic characteristics of visitors to the Mag Mile during the Lights Festival reveals that the celebration draws a more economically diverse crowd, as well as a larger share of families with children. Throughout most of this year, the median household income (HHI) of the Magnificent Mile’s captured market was relatively high – $85.4K. At the same time, the share of parental households in the retail corridor’s captured market increased from 21.0% to 23.4%, highlighting the event’s special appeal for families.
Everybody needs some seasonal cheer – and the sheer variety of holiday-themed events and festivals means there’s something for everybody. How will Christmas stores fare as the retail environment continues to evolve? And how will shifting urban landscapes impact local events, parades, and festivals in the years to come?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail and civic analyses to find out.
College students make up a small percentage of the overall U.S. population. But they often have money to spend – and back-to-college shopping is a significant driver of retail sales. This year in particular, students heading back to school were expected to spend record amounts on dorm decor, clothing, and other campus essentials. And since today’s college students make up a large chunk of tomorrow’s affluent consumers, retailers across industries are eager to cement positive relationships with the segment.
So with fall semester just under way, we dove into the data to explore the spending habits of today’s undergraduate young adults. When do they shop? What do they like to buy? And what can retailers do to get their attention?
To get a sense of when collegians tend to do the most shopping, we analyzed the monthly share of college students in the captured markets of select retailers and segments, using audience segmentation data from Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive. And the analysis revealed that student consumer behavior follows a clear seasonal pattern.
In 2019, the share of college students in the captured markets of big box superstores like Target and Walmart peaked in August, and to a lesser extent in June, July, and September, as collegians enjoyed their summer vacations and did their back-to-school shopping. Additional upticks emerged in January, when many students were on winter break. But during regular school months, when midterms, finals, and homework likely kept many students hunkered down in the library, their share in the chains’ captured markets was much lower. While this pattern was disrupted in the wake of COVID, it returned in full force in 2022. Similar seasonality arose when looking at wider segments like apparel and off-price retail, as well as various dining categories.
In addition to seasonality, the above graphs also appear to indicate that despite their tight budgets, collegians don’t necessarily prioritize price over everything else. So to further explore the shopping preferences of college kids, we examined the share of the #College segment in the captured markets of popular chains across categories.
Trade area data seems to indicate that university students shop at Target, frequent non-off-price-apparel chains, eat at fast-casual restaurants – and make up smaller shares of the customer bases of less expensive alternatives. Indeed, as hard-up as they may be, undergrads know how to splurge and are willing to pay for high quality stuff. They can’t get enough Urban Outfitters and love mid to higher range brands like Madewell and lululemon athletica.
At the same time, college students are highly oriented to thrift shops – especially those like Buffalo Exchange and Plato’s Closet, where they can sell their old clothes and snag stylish, name-brand items for a steal.
Of course, the share of collegians in the captured market of any given retailer or segment can also be impacted by the behavior of other demographics. For example, if a particular chain attracts an extremely broad audience, a lower relative share of college students may indicate that their presence is being offset by other segments. Still, while a small share of collegians in a chain’s trade area may not necessarily mean that the chain does not appeal to this group, a disproportionate share of students in a chain’s captured market is a strong indication that the brand is embraced by this demographic.
And chains which see a smaller share of college students among their customer base may draw an outsize proportion of undergrads during peak season. Walmart’s captured market, for example, was just 14.0% over-indexed for the #College segment between September 2022 and August 2023, compared to a nationwide baseline. But looking just at August 2023 – peak college Back to School shopping season – the share of #College students in its captured market was 94.0% higher than the nationwide average. Walmart also enjoyed higher-than-average shares of collegians in September, June, July, January, and to a lesser extent – October. Dollar Tree, too, attracted an outsize share of collegians in the summer and in January.
Collegian shopping habits are shaped by the rhythms of campus life. And while students are budget-conscious, they place a high premium on quality and are willing to spend money on things that are important to them. Brands that can lean into college students’ seasonal groove – while providing the products they crave at price points that don’t break the bank – will be poised to win over this demographic, gaining customers that may stay with them for life.
How will college spending habits continue to evolve as the school year progresses? Which brands will stand out as collegian favorites?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven insights to find out.
Marriott International, Inc. has long been a dominant player on the U.S. hospitality scene. The company boasts a wide-ranging portfolio of some 31 brands, running the gamut from luxury chains like The Ritz Carlton to more budget-friendly options like Courtyard by Marriott. And with more than 8,500 locations worldwide, including some 5,700 in the U.S., the hotel giant is continuing to expand its footprint.
Against this backdrop, Marriott International’s decision last May to launch the hospitality industry’s first media network – leveraging visitor data to let external brands advertise to its customers – should come as no surprise. With millions of customers passing through its doors each year, Marriott is particularly well-placed to help relevant advertising partners reach new audiences. The network, powered by Yahoo, offers both online and offline marketing opportunities, including in-room television and digital-screen promotions.
To better understand the potential reach of Marriott’s advertising network, we dove into the data to explore the characteristics and preferences of the people that visit the hospitality leader’s various brands and locations. By layering foot traffic data with demographic and psychographic metrics from STI: Popstats, AGS Behavior & Attitudes, and Experian’s Mosaic, we examined Marriott’s different captured markets, gaining insight into the habits, interests, and profiles of its customer bases.
*A chain or venue’s captured market refers to the population residing in its trade area, weighted to reflect the actual share of visits from each Census Block Group comprising the trade area.
Marriott’s brands are divided into three tiers: Luxury, Premium, and Select. And with something for everyone, the company’s customer base encompasses a wide swath of society – from budget-conscious families looking for inexpensive accommodations, to affluent singles on the hunt for high-end, luxury getaways. Marriott also runs several extended-stay venues, including Residence Inn and TownePlace Suites.
A look at the profiles of visitors to four different Marriott chains shows that, as expected, wealthier patrons tend to frequent the company’s luxury hotels, while less affluent customers tend to visit its more budget-oriented Select brands. But even the company’s less pricey offerings – such as Four Points by Sheraton (acquired by Marriott in 2016) – attract consumers from relatively affluent areas. And certain Select tier destinations, like Marriott’s Millennial and GenZ-oriented Moxy Hotels, draw higher-HHI travelers than some Premium brands.
The household compositions and consumer preferences of visitors to Marriott’s various brands also differ. Four Points stands out as a prime destination for families with children, as well as older couples – while Moxy attracts an outsize share of “Young City Solos.” Moxy and Ritz Carlton guests are more likely to be museum goers and use ride share apps like Lyft and Uber. And visitors to Four Points and Westin locations are more apt to be into DIY home improvement.
One Marriott chain that has been doing particularly well in recent months is Moxy Hotels, a brand squarely targeted at the “young at heart.” Positioned as an experiential destination – a place to play, and not just stay – Moxy Hotels’ website exudes youthfulness, inviting travelers to “PLAY ON #ATTHEMOXY,” and touting the chain’s fun communal spaces. The rooms are relatively compact and affordable, and at some locations, guests can check in at the bar and claim a complimentary cocktail.
And the chain, which boasts some 120 properties across 23 countries (including more than 30 in the U.S.), experienced positive year-over-year (YoY) visit growth throughout H1 2023. While some of this growth is undoubtedly due to the chain’s continued expansion, the average number of visits to each Moxy Hotel also increased. The consumer quest for fun experiences, which has propelled experiential models in retail and dining, appears to be leaving its mark on the hotel industry as well.
Moxy Hotel’s highly targeted experiential vibe may make it particularly attractive for advertisers interested in reaching younger consumers. But while Moxy targets a pretty specific demographic, the profile of its customers is far from uniform. Visitors to Moxy’s New Orleans Hotel, for example, are more likely to have a lower HHI and to include families with children than visitors to its Washington, D.C. and East Village (New York) venues. And while more than 60.0% of visitors to the East Village Moxy in H1 2023 were locals hailing from less than 30 miles away, 81.5% of visitors to the New Orleans Moxy came from further away.
Buoyed by a post-COVID travel boom that has seen people flocking back to hotels and airlines, Marriott International – along with its media network – appears poised for further growth. While the network will undoubtedly harness Marriott’s own first-party data, including from its Bonvoy loyalty program, location intelligence can offer additional layers of insight into the actual audiences it is likely to reach.
For more data-driven foot traffic insights, visit Placer.ai.
Although many dining chains have been challenged by recent economic headwinds, others are finding success. Adding itself to the list of restaurant winners in 2023 is CAVA – a growing Mediterranean fast-casual chain that recently filed for an initial public offering (IPO). We dove into the location analytics for CAVA to take a closer look at how the company is thriving in a turbulent economic climate and what lies ahead for the chain in its next chapter.
CAVA has shown a remarkable ability to drive foot traffic over the past couple of years. Since 2019, CAVA’s baseline visit growth has outperformed the fast-casual restaurant space nearly every month – with visits really taking off in 2021. The brand has been able to capitalize on growing suburban markets – accounting for 80% of locations – which may be contributing to the chain’s visit growth.
Visits to CAVA have skyrocketed. And like other fast-casual success stories, CAVA has embraced drive-thrus and invested in a streamlined in-store experience, both of which are likely contributing to at least some of the brand’s recent strength.
In addition to impressive visit growth, CAVA recorded a 12.8% revenue increase in 2022 compared to 2021 – no small feat considering the impact of inflation on overall restaurant traffic.
Zooming into visits per venue showcases CAVA’s strength even more clearly. CAVA’s visits-per-venue seem to follow industry trends – as overall fast-casual visits-per-venue fell year-over-year (YoY) between January and April 2023, CAVA’s visit-per-venue growth slowed as well. But although the direction was similar, the actual performance differed substantially, with the company significantly outperforming the wider fast-casual category.
CAVA’s YoY monthly visits per venue have been up since January 2023 – a particularly impressive feat in light of the chain’s continued expansion, and an indication that new locations are driving traffic despite the current economic environment. So, while CAVA appears to be affected by broader restaurant trends, the brand remains far ahead of the fast-casual dining space.
CAVA’s bold brick-and-mortar strategy is part of the reason why it has been able to get ahead of the pack in the fast-casual category. The company acquired Zoës Kitchen in 2018 and has since rebranded almost all Zoës Kitchen locations as CAVA restaurants. Such a strategy is relatively rare in the restaurant industry, but location analytics show that the move has paid off.
Since Q1 2021, CAVA’s YoY visits per venue have consistently outperformed visits-per-venue at the remaining Zoës Kitchen locations. This not only validates CAVA’s decision to phase out the Zoës Kitchen brand but also suggests that CAVA resonates with Zoës Kitchen diners who continue to visit a location when it becomes a CAVA restaurant.
CAVA’s IPO announcement is a welcome next step for one of the fastest-growing fast-casual chains. With a focused expansion strategy and an eye on growing markets, there may be no telling how far the company can go.
For updates and more data-driven foot traffic insights, visit Placer.ai.
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Coffee’s success in 2025 offers several key lessons for dining operators across categories:
1. Strategic expansion into under-penetrated regions can supercharge growth. YoY visits to coffee chains are growing fastest in areas of the Southeast and Sunbelt where the category still accounts for a relatively low share of dining visits.
2. Pairing craveable products with genuinely human, personalized service can build durable loyalty. Aroma Joe’s proves that when standout offerings are combined with warm, consistent personal touches, brands can create habit loops that drive repeat visits even in crowded markets.
3. Prioritizing hyper-efficient convenience models can unlock meaningful growth. Scooter’s Coffee demonstrates that fast, reliable, frictionless experiences can materially increase traffic while supporting rapid expansion.
4. Building recurring limited-time rituals can create predictable demand spikes and deepen engagement. From the annual Pumpkin Spice Latte launch to Jackpot Day, coffee chains show that ritualized promotions can “own the calendar,” generating predictable traffic spikes and deepening emotional engagement.
5. Using scarce, hype-driven offerings can generate high-impact moments that shift behavior. Starbucks’ Bearista drop illustrates how limited, buzzworthy merchandise or products can not only spike visits but also shift customer behavior, driving traffic outside typical dayparts.
6. Leveraging cultural collaborations can create excitement without relying on discounts. Dunkin’s Wicked partnership shows that tapping into moments in pop culture can deliver multi-day visit lifts comparable to major promotions – often without relying on giveaways.
Coffee has become one of the most resilient and inventive corners of the U.S. food and beverage industry. Even as consumers wrestle with higher prices and trim discretionary spending, they continue to show up for cold foam, caffeinated boosts, and treat-worthy daily indulgences.
Throughout 2025, coffee chains saw consistent year-over-year (YoY) quarterly visit growth, as brands from Starbucks to 7 Brew expanded their footprints. Crucially, per-location category-wide traffic also remained close to 2024 levels throughout most of the year before trending upward heading into the holiday season – showing that this expansion has not diluted demand at existing coffee shop locations.
What’s fueling coffee’s ongoing momentum? Which strategies are helping leading chains accelerate despite this year’s headwinds? And what can operators across dining categories learn from coffee’s success?
This white paper dives into the data to reveal the strategies behind coffee’s standout performance – and how they can help dining concepts across segments succeed in 2026.
Analyzing market-level (DMA) dining traffic data reveals that coffee chains are prioritizing growth in markets with lighter competition – and this formula is paying off.
In the graphic below, the top map shows the share of dining visits commanded by coffee in each DMA, while the bottom map highlights the year-over-year (YoY) change in visits to the coffee category. Perhaps unsurprisingly, markets where coffee already commands a high share of dining visits (specifically on the West Coast and in the Northeast) are seeing the softest year-over-year performance, while DMAs with lower coffee penetration are delivering the strongest visit growth.
In other words, traditional coffee markets such as Northwestern metros– where competition is high and incremental gains are harder to capture – are no longer the primary engines of category momentum. Instead, coffee visits are growing fastest across the Southeast, Sun Belt, and Texas – regions where branded coffee still represents a relatively small share of dining visits. Operators across dining segments can learn from coffee's approach and identify markets with low category penetration to lean into those whitespace opportunities.
But geography is only part of the story. And the coffee segment shows that a strong concept that delivers on fundamentals – great products and exceptional service – can thrive even in tougher coffee markets such as the northeast.
The experience of expanding Northeastern chain Aroma Joe’s shows how pairing craveable beverages with an unusually personal service model can drive visit growth even in relatively hard-to-break-into regions.
Aroma Joe’s, a rapidly-expanding coffee chain headquartered in Maine, with over 125 locations, has become something of a local obsession: Customers rave about the chain’s addictive signature beverages – as well as the feel-good atmosphere cultivated by its warm, friendly staff. And this combination of human touch and product quality creates a powerful habit loop: In October 2025, nearly one quarter of visitors to Aroma Joe’s stopped at the chain at least four times during the month – a much higher loyalty rate than that seen by other leading coffee brands.
The takeaway: Craveable products paired with exceptional service can create a scalable loyalty engine.
Another key differentiator for the coffee sector is convenience. Drive-thrus have become ubiquitous across the category, with many of the fastest-growing upstarts embracing drive-thru only models and legacy leaders also leaning more heavily into the format.
Scooter’s Coffee – named for its core promise to help customers “scoot” in and out quickly – exemplifies this advantage. In Q3 2025, the chain posted a 3.1% YoY increase in average visits per location, even as it continued to scale its footprint. And its customers averaged a dwell time of just 7.3 minutes – significantly lower than other leading coffee chains, including other drive-thru-forward peers.
By delivering consistently quick experiences without compromising quality, Scooter’s has emerged as a traffic leader in the coffee space – demonstrating the power of efficiency to drive demand.
No category has mastered the “event-ization” of the menu quite like coffee – and few brands own the category’s calendar as effectively as Starbucks. The annual return of the Pumpkin Spice Latte has become a cultural milestone that marks the unofficial start of fall for millions, driving double-digit visit spikes and shaping seasonal traffic patterns.
And the importance of the event only continues to grow. On August 26th, 2025, PSL day drove a 19.5% spike in traffic compared to the prior ten-week average – a higher relative spike than that seen in 2024 or 2023.
But this playbook isn’t reserved for mega-brands. 7 Brew’s monthly Jackpot Day, held on the 7th of each month, shows how recurring promotions can also build anticipation and deliver repeatable traffic lifts for up-and-coming concepts.
Beginning in August 2025, Jackpot Day shifted from a limited “Jackpot Hour” to an all-day activation. That month’s offer – two medium drinks for $8 plus a Kindness wristband – generated a 47.1% lift versus an average Thursday. And in subsequent months, giveaways ranging from tote bags to footballs kept the excitement going, sustaining elevated visits each time the 7th rolled around.
These rituals create emotional consistency: Customers know when to expect something special and plan around it. Dining chains beyond the coffee space can also create dependable spikes in traffic by implementing recurring, ritualized LTOs that create an emotional calendar and keep customers engaged.
Offering recurring LTOs is one way to keep customers consistently engaged. But one-time, limited-edition merch drops can create even bigger visit surges. Starbucks’ much-hyped “Bearista” launch this November is a prime example: Customers lined up nationwide for the chance to buy – not receive – an adorable, limited-edition, bear-shaped reusable cup. And despite its hefty $30 price tag, the merch drop drove a massive nationwide visit spike, making it the chain’s biggest sales day ever and fueling additional momentum leading into Red Cup Day.
And location data shows that this kind of hype-driven, scarce merchandise can shift not just visitor volume but daypart behavior. Visits surged as early as 4:00 AM as FOMO-driven customers showed up at the crack of dawn to secure a bear. And the shift toward early morning visits (though not quite as early) continued the following day as stores quickly ran out of stock.
Starbucks' Bearista frenzy suggests that scarcity isn’t just a retail tactic – it’s a powerful behavioral trigger that restaurants can harness as well. Limited-run items, exclusive merch drops, or time-bound specials can generate excitement, pull visits forward, and reshape daypart patterns in ways traditional promotions rarely do.
Cultural tie-ins add another accelerant. In November, Dunkin’ launched its Wicked collaboration alongside its holiday menu, generating a significant multi-day traffic spike – achieved, like Bearista, without giveaways. The event leaned on playful thematic branding, seasonal flavors, and limited-run items that tapped into Wicked fandom.
Dunkin's Wicked surge shows that when executed well, cultural relevance can also significantly move the needle. Other dining segments may also lean into thoughtful collabs to create outsized excitement and traffic lift – even without deep discounts or free offers.
The coffee sector’s 2025 performance offers a blueprint for dining success: Chains are expanding smartly into underpenetrated regions, successfully implementing both hyper-efficient and hyper-personal service models, using recurring LTOs to build seasonal and monthly rituals, and leveraging merch and pop culture partnerships to reshape demand.
Together, these strategies provide a practical playbook for dining brands to increase visit frequency, deepen customer commitment, and capture new growth opportunities in 2026 and beyond.
Five metros from across the United States stand out for consumer momentum going into 2026: Salt Lake City (UT), Reno (NV), Indianapolis (IN), Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (FL), and Raleigh-Durham (NC). All five metro areas saw their populations increase by more than the average U.S. metro between 2023 and 2024, and year-over-year (YoY) retail and dining traffic trends outpaced the nationwide average.
Utah is one of the fastest-growing states in the U.S. The state’s population has grown steadily for more than two decades with unemployment remaining consistently below the nationwide average, with one of the youngest workforces in the country. According to some analysts, the median household income in Utah, when adjusted for cost of living, is the highest in the nation.
All of this positions Salt Lake City – the state’s capital – as a particularly attractive market heading into 2026. Location analytics show year-over-year increases in foot traffic across many neighborhoods, from established retail hubs like Sugar House and Downtown SLC to the more mixed-use Central City and primarily residential areas such as The Avenues and East Bench. The city also serves as a gateway to a diverse mix of audiences, attracting younger residents and commuters as well as affluent families who come into the city to shop, dine, and enjoy local attractions.
Salt Lake City’s diversity in age and household composition as well as Utah's strong homeownership culture – even among younger cohorts – creates opportunities for retail and dining chains across categories. Home-forward concepts are particularly poised to outperform, as shown by recent location analytics. Traffic to furniture & home furnishing chains increased 7.4% YoY in the Salt Lake City DMA compared to a 2.5% increase nationwide, and grocery stores and home improvement retailers outperformed in the market as well. These trends point to a solid market for retailers tied to home life – from furniture and décor to everyday grocery needs –driven not only by steady population growth and household spending, but also by a local culture that places strong emphasis on family and the home.
While Salt Lake City continues to build on its strong foundation, another Western city is quietly gaining momentum. Reno, Nevada, which is often viewed as a regional gaming-town, is increasingly emerging as a dynamic travel destination in its own right.
In 2024 Washoe County (including the city of Reno) welcomed approximately 3.8 million visitors whose spending of about $3.4 billion generated a total economic impact of $5.2 billion. This growth signals a robust visitor-economy that supports roughly 43,800 jobs and generates over $420 million in state and local tax revenue.
What makes this particularly compelling is that while Las Vegas, Nevada is facing mounting pressures from increasing costs, the Reno-Tahoe region is showing stronger resilience thanks in part to a drive-market model and diversified appeal. Analyzing the traffic data shows that visits from non-residents, and non-employees to downtown Reno have increased YoY for the past three years. And though Reno may be thought of as a vacation spot for older Gen X and Baby Boomer vacationers, the data also indicates that Singles & Starters –"young singles starting out and some starter families living a city lifestyle" – make up an increasingly large share of Reno's visitor base.
This generational diversification carries important implications for both retail and real estate investment. As younger visitors drive up spending in food, entertainment, and shopping centers, the market is poised for renewed urban energy – fueling redevelopment across downtown corridors and mixed-use projects. With strategic public–private investments and an expanding visitor economy, Reno stands out as a market to watch in 2026, combining strong fundamentals with emerging demographic momentum.
The Midwest also contains several metro areas on the rise. Large-scale manufacturing projects like Intel’s $20 billion chip plants and Honda and LG Energy Solution’s EV battery facility are spurring housing and retail expansion around Columbus, Ohio. Kansas City, Missouri, is benefiting from logistics growth and projected tourism growth linked to its role as a FIFA World Cup 2026 host city. And Madison, Wisconsin, is seeing steady consumer growth is supported by its diverse tech and biotech economy.
But Indianapolis, Indiana tops the charts in terms of YoY overall retail visit growth between May and October 2025 (+4.3%, see first chart). And much of the consumer traffic in the Indianapolis DMA consists of suburban and rural households – precisely the segments that many retailers are now trying to woo.
Family-friendly retailers and dining chains are particularly well positioned to thrive in Indiana heading into 2026. Indianapolis has some of the best job prospects and most affordable home prices in the country – and its favorable salary to cost of living ratio likely allows many families to have leftover income left over for discretionary spending.
Recent data shows that a range of family-oriented brands – from Chili’s and Marshall’s to Kroger – have outperformed in Indianapolis over the past six months. The city’s growing middle-income population and its suburban, family-focused consumer base appear to be fueling stronger in-person spending, particularly at convenient, affordable, and community-oriented retail and dining destinations.
Moving east to North Carolina brings several additional growing metros into focus, including Myrtle Beach, Wilmington, and Charlotte. But Raleigh rises above the pack with its powerful combination of job growth, steady in-migration, and a well-balanced, diversified economy.
All this is leading to YoY increases in total traffic within the Raleigh-Durham, NC DMA, driven in part by major firms – including entrants in finance and life-sciences – continuing to expand operations in the area. The city of Raleigh also has relatively low median age and relatively high median household income. This combination of robust job creation, wage gains, and a growing pool of young, high-spending residents positions Raleigh as one of the most dynamic consumer markets in the Southeast heading into 2026.
Raleigh's consumer growth potential is particularly stark when looking at performance of major mixed-use developments across the region. Foot traffic at leading projects such as Smoky Hollow, the Main District at North Hills Street, and Fenton in Cary has climbed sharply.
The data also shows that these destinations attract a disproportionately high share of wealthy singles and one-person households – a demographic with strong discretionary spending power. Together, these trends point to a deepening base of urban, high-income consumers fueling growth in dining, retail, and entertainment – making Raleigh one of the country's most dynamic and opportunity-rich metro areas heading into 2026.
In the Southeast, Tampa is one of the nation’s standout metro areas heading into 2026. Strong fundamentals – such as no state income tax and expanding employment in sectors like technology, healthcare, and logistics – have attracted a significant influx of Gen Z and millennial residents. And although in-migration is beginning to slow somewhat, the city's expanding economy and youthful talent base continue to fuel growth across housing, retail, and dining.
And as more companies require employees to spend additional days in the office, YoY commuter traffic has increased across Tampa’s major cities. Leisure visits from non-residents are also on the rise, suggesting that retailers and dining chains seeking to capture this expanding market could benefit from growing their presence throughout the Tampa metro area.
Rising traffic across Tampa’s major urban areas appears to be translating into stronger dining activity as well. Over the past six months, average YoY visits to Tampa area full-service restaurants, coffee shops, and fast-casual chains have all exceeded the national average, which may reflect a broader acceleration in both local workforce and leisure-visitor demand.
1. Retail is deeply divided. Visits to value and luxury apparel segments grew YoY in 2025 while traffic to mid-tier retailers flagged.
2. Upscale dining momentum reflects similar bifurcation. More resilient, affluent consumers are bolstering fine-dining traffic.
3. Authenticity is key. Brands successfully executing on a clear sense of purpose – from community-driven grocers to bookstores – are driving consistent visit growth.
4. Online and offline retail are converging into a seamless ecosystem. As consumers seek online value and in-person convenience, AI fulfillment, dark stores, and local pickup are accelerating.
5. Digitally native brands expanding into physical retail are redefining omnichannel. These chains provide a blueprint for merging digital efficiency with personalized in-store experiences.
6. Traditionally urban brands are shifting to suburbia to capture new audiences. With consumers rooted in hybrid lifestyles and growing suburban demand, chains that adapt their footprints drive fresh traffic.
7. Expansion into college markets and celebrity pop-ups are helping retailers and malls connect with younger consumers. Brands that grew their footprints in college towns or on campuses increased their Gen Z traffic, as did malls that hosted celebrity or influencer activations.
Retail and dining faced another complex year in 2025. Persistent economic headwinds and uncertainty surrounding tariffs intensified consumers’ focus on value, even as affluent shoppers continued to indulge in luxury brands and upscale dining experiences.
Yet the year also revealed behavioral shifts that extended beyond price sensitivity. Shoppers increasingly prioritized brands that convey authenticity and a clear sense of purpose – those that deliver value not only through price, but through omnichannel convenience, product quality, and brand ethos.
For their part, retailers and malls continued to evolve, adopting strategies to capture both the expanding suburban market and a rising generation of younger consumers emerging as a defining force in retail.
How have these trends evolved, and how will they shape the retail landscape in 2026? We dove into the data to find out.
The first three quarters of 2025 underscored a widening divide in the apparel sector, with strength at both ends of the price and income spectrums.
Off-price retailers and thrift stores, which draw shoppers from lower- and middle-income trade areas, gained significant ground – reflecting consumers’ ongoing search for value and treasure-hunt experiences that feel both economical and rewarding. At the same time, luxury maintained modest growth, showing that high-income shoppers remain resilient and willing to spend on premium experiences. Meanwhile, traditional apparel and mid-tier department stores continued to see visit declines, signaling further pressure on the retail middle. Retailers such as Target and Kohl’s, traditional staples of this middle segment, are contending with the challenge of defining their identity to consumers in a market increasingly split between value and luxury.
Looking ahead to 2026, mid-tier retailers will need to navigate a complex and polarized landscape. Without the clear positioning enjoyed by value and luxury players, success will require sharper differentiation and disciplined execution. But though the middle remains a tough place to compete, it still holds potential: Brands that can redefine relevance – something many of these same chains achieved just a few years ago – stand to capture consumers with spending power.
A similar bifurcation dynamic is also unfolding in the dining sector.
Upscale full-service restaurants (FSRs) are outperforming their casual dining counterparts, as higher-income consumers – and those dining out for special occasions – seek elevated experiences at fine-dining chains.
At the same time, more cost-conscious diners are trading down from casual dining FSRs to fast-casual chains, which continue to outperform the casual dining segment. Fast-casual brands are also benefiting from trading up within the limited-service segment, as consumers who choose to eat out – rather than eat at home or grab a lower-cost prepared meal at a c-store or grocery – opt for more experiences that feel more premium yet remain accessible.
Across both retail and dining, bifurcation doesn’t tell the whole story. Even as spending concentrates at the high and low ends of the market, a growing number of brands are succeeding by delivering an experience that feels intentional, distinctive, and true to their identity. These concepts share a clear raison d’être – a sense of purpose that resonates with consumers – as well as successful execution. The data shows that brands providing this kind of “on-point” experience are driving consistent visit growth in 2025, signaling that authenticity may be important retail currency in 2026.
Trader Joe’s sustained momentum reflects its ability to make shopping feel like discovery. The chain’s locally-inspired assortments, roughly 80% private-label mix, and steady rotation of seasonal products keep visits fresh and engagement high.
Sprouts, for its part, continues to benefit from a sharpened identity centered on freshness, sustainability, and health. Its smaller-format stores, curated product mix, and messaging around healthy living have helped it build a loyal base of wellness‐oriented shoppers.
Meanwhile, Barnes & Noble’s transformation offers a compelling case study in the power of experience. Its strategy of empowering local managers to curate store selections and host community events has turned stores into cultural touchpoints – driving increased visits and dwell times.
All three brands derive their strength from their clarity of purpose – illustrating how authenticity and intentionality are becoming meaningful factors shaping consumer engagement.
Authenticity isn’t limited to national names. Regional players such as H-E-B and In-N-Out Burger demonstrate how deeply ingrained local identity can translate into sustained growth.
H-E-B’s community-driven ethos, local sourcing, and operational excellence have built trust across Texas markets, helping it remain one of the country’s most beloved grocery chains, with high rates of shoppers visiting multiple times a month. And in the quick-service category, California-native In-N-Out Burger stands out for its quality, nostalgia, and mystique, as the chain continues to attract visitation trends that exceed national QSR benchmarks.
These brands demonstrate that authenticity can have a local element. Their success reflects not just product strength or efficiency, but a deeper connection to the communities they serve.
While regional and experience-driven brands continue to build deep consumer connections, the broader retail landscape is also being reshaped by operational innovation. As technology and infrastructure improve, retailers are finding new ways to merge digital efficiency with convenient physical touchpoints.
E-commerce growth and in-store activity are increasingly interconnected. Visits to ecommerce distribution centers* climbed steadily between October 2021 and September 2025, while the share of short, under-10-minute trips to big-box chains Target, Walmart, BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Sam’s Club also increased. Together, these patterns suggest that while online shopping continues to expand, consumers remain highly engaged with physical locations through buy-online-pick-up-in-store (BOPIS) and same-day fulfillment channels – combining the value of online deals with the convenience of quick, local pickup.
This trend also reflects ongoing advancements in AI-driven fulfillment and Walmart’s testing of dark stores – retail spaces converted into local fulfillment hubs that accelerate delivery and enable quick customer pickup. These innovations are shortening fulfillment windows while optimizing store networks for hybrid demand.
As retailers continue to blur the boundaries between digital and physical commerce in 2026, expect them to become increasingly complementary parts of a single, omnichannel ecosystem.
*The Placer.ai E-commerce Distribution Center Index measures foot traffic across more than 400 distribution centers nationwide, including facilities operated by leading retailers such as Amazon, Walmart, and Target. Designed as a barometer for U.S. e-commerce activity, the index captures two key audiences: employees, estimated through dwell-time patterns, and visitors, who often represent logistics partners delivering raw materials, moving in-process goods, or collecting finished products.
The resurgence of digitally native brands embracing physical retail underscores how online and offline strategies are converging into an integrated model, combining digital efficiency with the benefits of a physical presence.
Framebridge, a DTC custom framing brand, offers a clear example of this trend. As the brand has expanded its footprint, the average number of monthly visits to each of its locations rose sharply throughout 2025.
Framebridge’s success lies in its well-executed omnichannel model. Customers can place orders online or in store, with the option to ship directly to their homes or pick up in person.
But for Framebridge, physical locations aren’t just about convenience. Art and memories are often one of a kind, so having knowledgeable staff in store and the opportunity to engage with materials firsthand transforms a transaction into a personalized, consultative experience.
Framebridge exemplifies how digitally native brands are merging the ease of online shopping with physical spaces that provide a personal touch. And more digitally native brands, like Gymshark, are looking to bring their business offline with the hope of adding value for consumers.
As retailers advance their omnichannel strategies, another enduring shift is reshaping the retail map post-pandemic – the continued rise of suburban traffic. Brands that entered the pandemic with strong suburban footprints were among the first to benefit as in-person activity rebounded, while urban-focused chains that expanded outward have met migrating consumers and captured new audiences anchored in hybrid lifestyles and local shopping routines.
Large-format and drive-thru focused brands like Costco, Cava, and Dutch Bros. entered the pandemic era from a position of strength as they are traditionally situated in suburban and exurban areas. As consumers spent more time close to home and away from urban centers, these chains captured heightened local demand and saw visits rebound rapidly once in-person shopping resumed.
And as the pandemic reshaped consumer traffic patterns, brands like Shake Shack and Chipotle quickly recognized emerging opportunities in suburban markets and adjusted their strategies to capture this shifting demand. For Shake Shack – a brand once defined by its urban storefronts – the shift toward suburban drive-thrus and stand-alone locations represented a significant pivot. Chipotle followed a similar path, accelerating its suburban expansion through the rollout of “Chipotlane” drive-thru lanes.
Arriving somewhat later to the suburban landscape, sweetgreen, once synonymous with its urban footprint, opened its first drive-thru in 2022, and by 2024 had made suburban markets a core pillar of its growth strategy.
These real estate moves positioned all three brands to capture demand from remote and hybrid workers, helping sustain visit growth well above pre-pandemic baselines.
As suburban demand continues to grow, the suburbs will likely remain a critical growth frontier for many brands in the year ahead.
Investment in suburban markets underscores how changing market conditions and strategy adaptation can allow brands to meet consumers where they are. And a parallel trend is unfolding in college towns and youth-dense trade areas, where brands are channeling investment to capture rising Gen Z spending power.
Expansion in college-anchored markets, paired with celebrity and influencer-driven pop-ups, is helping retailers build cultural relevance and increase engagement with this emerging consumer base.
The graph below underscores how targeted expansion into college-anchored markets can meaningfully shift audience composition. Over the last several years, many brands have expanded their near-campus footprints – and in turn, attracted a higher share of the Spatial.ai:PersonaLive “Young Urban Singles” segment, one highly aligned with Gen Z consumers.
CAVA’s rapid unit growth, including openings near major universities and in college towns, helped the brand increase its share of “Young Urban Singles” within its captured trade areas between October 2018-September 2019 and October 2024-September 2025. Meanwhile, Panda Express and Raising Cane's, which already had relatively large shares of the segment six years ago, have also invested in college-adjacent locations, lifting their “Young Urban Singles” audience share.
Even legacy mass retailer Target benefited from small-format and large store expansions near universities – growing its captured market share of “Young Urban Singles”.
These shifts suggest that college towns will continue to be strategic growth markets, including for luxury brands like Hermès. By making inroads in college towns and with Gen Z shoppers, brands can strengthen loyalty early and build durable market share that remains as these young adults move on from campus life.
As Gen Z’s influence expands beyond campus borders, retail engagement is increasingly driven by cultural moments that resonate with this cohort. And malls are finding that temporary pop-ups including influencer collaborations and celebrity-led activations can attract these young consumers.
At The Grove, the Pandora pop-up with brand ambassador girl-group Katseye in October 2024 led to a modest but significant increase in the Gen Z-dominant “Young Professionals” and “Young Urban Singles” segments within the mall’s captured trade area during the first week of the activation – compared to the average for the last twelve months.
Similarly, at Westfield Century City, the Taylor Swift x TikTok activation from October 3rd-9th, 2025 – which allowed fans to immerse themselves in the sets from the viral “The Fate of Ophelia” music video boosted the shares of “Young Urban Singles” and Young Professionals”, underscoring the star power of everything Taylor Swift.
And at American Dream, the pattern extended beyond younger audiences. On September 5th and 6th, 2025, Ninja Kidz attended the grand opening of their Action Park while Salish Matters made an appearance at the mall on September 6th for her skincare pop-up – which drew such large crowds that it had to be shut down. During these two event days, the mall’s shares of both “Young Professionals” and “Ultra-Wealthy Families” increased substantially, highlighting that pop-up events can draw young and affluent family audiences.
Together, these examples reinforce that, in 2026, the integration of short-term pop-ups will continue to be a strategy for malls and individual brands to gain relevance for key demographic segments.
2025 reinforced that retail remains as dynamic as ever. Value continues to anchor decisions, but consumers are redefining what value means – blending price sensitivity with expectations for authenticity. And in the current retail landscape, online and physical retail are growing more interconnected as consumers demand convenience and experience.
In 2026, adaptability will be retailers’ greatest competitive edge. The next era of retail will belong to brands that can continue to refine their operating strategy – while staying true to a clear brand identity.
