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2024 has been a tough year for quick-service restaurants (QSRs), with rising costs, inflation, and changing consumer preferences putting pressure on the industry. And as if these challenges weren’t enough, incursions into the convenient meal space by c-stores, fast-casual restaurants, and even grocery chains have forced QSRs to contend with increased competition.
But visit data shows that despite these headwinds, fast food leaders like McDonald’s and Wendy’s are holding their ground. During the first three quarters of 2024, both McDonald’s and Wendy’s experienced visit levels generally on par with those seen last year, with minimal year-over-year (YoY) variation. Despite a minor dip for McDonald's in Q2, when visits dropped by 2.2% compared to 2023, the overall difference in visit levels for both chains was less than 1% across the remaining quarters.
This stability highlights the ability of both brands to retain a steady flow of traffic despite competitive pressures and economic challenges.
One strategy QSRs have successfully deployed to entice hungry customers has been the introduction of discounted limited-time offers (LTOs). And following summer LTOs that garnered plenty of excitement, McDonald’s and Wendy’s are back in the limited-time game. On October 8th, 2024, Wendy's launched its Krabby Patty Kollab, celebrating the 25th anniversary of SpongeBob SquarePants with two limited-time items. Meanwhile, McDonald’s introduced the Chicken Big Mac on October 10th, expanding its menu with an item that had already gained global recognition.
While both launches positively impacted visitation, Wendy's limited-time menu had a more pronounced effect. Wendy’s saw a dramatic surge in visits in the wake of the Kollab, with an increase of 26.4% on the Tuesday of the Krabby Patty launch, compared to a year-to-date (YTD) Tuesday average. The following Wednesday and Thursday also saw increases of 20.7% and 23.9%, respectively, compared to the YTD daily average for those days of the week.
And though the response to McDonald’s menu addition was somewhat more restrained, the limited-time chicken offering also generated a visit increase: On the Thursday of the launch, McDonald’s saw visits jump by 7.9% compared to the chain’s YTD Thursday visit average – showing the power of limited-time items to generate excitement and urgency among consumers.
In addition to new menu items, McDonald’s has placed a strong emphasis on its breakfast offerings – a strategic focus that has grown more pronounced throughout 2024. By expanding its breakfast menu, offering healthier alternatives, and promoting limited-time deals, McDonald’s has successfully driven morning traffic. The introduction of CosMc's, a new McCafé spinoff, further boosts the company’s breakfast and coffee offerings, appealing to a broader audience seeking affordable beverages and quick meals.
And McDonald’s breakfast strategy appears to be paying off. In 2024, 24.8% of McDonald’s daily visits occurred between 5:00 AM and 11:00 AM – compared to just 8.5% for Wendy’s. Wendy’s, for its part, had a stronger foothold in the lunchtime segment, with the 11:00 AM - 2:00 PM time slot accounting for 27.5% of visits, compared to 21.2% for McDonald’s.
Both McDonald’s and Wendy’s have displayed resilience in maintaining steady customer visits, with menu innovations and breakfast strategies playing a significant role in shaping their traffic patterns in 2024.
How will the two quick-service giants sign off this year?
Follow our blog at Placer.ai to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Sprouts Farmers Market, the Phoenix, Arizona-based natural foods chain with some 419 locations across 23 states – up from 391 in July 2023 – is firmly in expansion mode. The chain reported a strong Q2 2024, including a 6.7% increase in comparable store sales.
But how did Sprouts perform in Q3? We dove into the data to find out.
Given its rapidly-growing footprint, Sprouts’ strong year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic growth – 8.1% in Q3 2024, far above the industry average of 1.6% – may seem unremarkable. After all, a bigger fleet means more locations to contribute to the chain’s overall visit count. But for Sprouts, expansion is just part of the story. Throughout Q3 and most of Q2, the average number of visits to each of Sprouts Farmers Market’s locations also increased YoY, showing that the chain’s growing store count is meeting robust demand. And though the wider grocery space also saw a YoY uptick in visits per location, the increase was significantly lower (1.0% in Q3 for the segment as a whole, compared to 2.6% for Sprouts).
What can Sprouts expect this holiday season? In the past, location analytics have shown that while Turkey Wednesday – the day before Thanksgiving – is a major milestone for traditional grocery stores, specialty grocers like Trader Joe’s see smaller visit peaks on the big day.
But though Sprouts Farmers Market is certainly positioned as a specialty grocer, it is somewhat more akin to a traditional supermarket than key competitors like Trader Joe’s. For one thing, Sprouts boasts a wider array of merchandise than Trader Joe’s – including a huge selection of fresh, organic fruits and vegetables. And while Sprouts has been leaning heavily into its growing portfolio of private-label products, they still account for a minority of the chain’s revenue (In Q2 2024, just about 20% of Sprouts’ revenue came from private-label items – while at Trader Joe’s, some 80% of products sold are own-label.)
Perhaps as a result of these differences, consumers interact with Sprouts in some ways as they would with a traditional supermarket – including during the holidays. On November 22nd, 2023, for example (last year’s Turkey Wednesday), visits to Sprouts were up 61.3% compared to the chain’s daily average for the 12-month period ending September 30th, 2024 – making it Sprouts’ busiest day of the year by far. Though this jump was smaller than the 79.2% visit spike seen by the wider grocery store category, it was significantly larger than the 41.8% boost experienced by Trader Joe’s – which draws more traffic on the day before Mother’s Day. (December 23rd was the second-busiest day of the year for all three.)
Additionally, like traditional grocery stores, Sprouts Farmers Market attracts more parental households, and fewer singles, than Trader Joe’s – another reason, perhaps, why it’s so busy on Turkey Wednesday.
Over the past twelve months, the share of families with children in Sprouts’ captured market stood at 27.8% – higher than Trader Joe’s 25.4% and in line with the industry-wide average of 27.4%. On the flip side, the share of one-person households in Sprouts’ captured market was 26.2%, lower than Trader Joe’s 29.5%, and once again more closely aligned with the somewhat-higher 27.7% observed for the grocery category as a whole. As a family-friendly chain that caters to parents on the hunt for healthy food items, Sprouts will likely be a key destination this year for households seeking to load up on ingredients for the holidays.
*Captured market analysis weights each census block group (CBG) feeding visits to the chain according to its share in the chain’s overall foot traffic – thus reflecting the profile of the chain’s actual visitor base.
Sprouts Farmers Market is a specialty grocer– but one that is often treated like a traditional supermarket. With stellar YoY visit and visit-per-location performance under its belt, Sprouts appears poised to be a stand-out beneficiary of both Turkey Wednesday and the day before Christmas Eve (December 23rd) this year. What else lies in store for Sprouts this year?
Follow Placer.ai’s data driven retail analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
Fast-casual dining chain CAVA has had a great few years. The restaurant chain, which serves up health and flavor-forward Mediterranean fare, has increased its footprint massively over the past few years, and shows no signs of slowing down.
We took a closer look at the location intelligence data to understand what is driving success for the fast-casual dining chain.
CAVA, which has been opening restaurants at a rapid clip, is firmly in expansion mode. The restaurant chain featured 341 restaurants at the end of Q2 2024 – up from roughly 300 at the end of 2023 – and has set its sights on operating 1,000 locations by 2032.
Partly as a result of its growing footprint, CAVA’s foot traffic – already elevated in 2023 – has continued to surge throughout 2024. The chain achieved double-digit year-over-year (YoY) visit growth during every month of the year so far, with September visits up 24.9% YoY. By comparison, the broader fast-casual dining sector – which is also thriving – saw more modest YoY visit growth over the same period, as well as some minor YoY declines in January and September.
Still, though much of CAVA’s YoY foot traffic growth may be attributed to its rapid expansion – after all, more restaurants mean more opportunities for diners to try a lemon chicken or harissa avocado bowl – CAVA’s individual locations are also drawing more traffic. In all but one month of 2024 – January, when inclement weather led to a retail slowdown nationwide – the average number of visits to each CAVA restaurant also rose significantly. And in August and September 2024, visits per location grew by 15.0% and 9.9% YoY, respectively.
These trends suggest that CAVA’s expansion strategy is leaning into robust demand – and has succeeded in generating excitement and visit growth in both new and existing markets.
One factor that may be helping CAVA drive traffic is the growing diversity of its customer base. Analyzing changes in CAVA’s captured market over time with demographics from STI: PopStats shows that the median household income (HHI) of the brand’s visitor base has dropped over the past few years. (A chain’s captured market is obtained by weighting each census block group (CBG) in its trade area according to its share of visits to the chain in question – and thus represents the profile of the business’ actual visitor base.) In Q3 2021, the median HHI of CAVA’s captured market was $107.5k – much higher than the nationwide median of $76.1K. But as the chain has expanded, the median HHI of its visitor base has steadily declined, reaching $92.3K by Q3 2024.
Similarly, using the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset to look at the psychographic makeup of CAVA’s trade areas reveals that the share of “Ultra-Wealthy Families” in the chain’s captured market has also declined – from 22.9% 2021 to 17.1% in 2024. At the same time, the share of “Young Urban Singles” grew from 5.4% to 7.3%.
This shift suggests that as CAVA expands, it is welcoming a broader and more diverse customer base – positioning it for continued growth as it opens new locations.
CAVA continues to exceed expectations, opening stores at a rapid clip while maintaining visit numbers and appealing to an ever-growing range of customers.
What might the final quarter of the year hold in store for the fast-casual chain?
Visit Placer.ai to keep up to date with the latest data-driven dining insights.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.1, which introduces a new dynamic model that stabilizes daily fluctuations in the panel, improving accuracy and alignment with external ground truth sources.
If you’ve been to your local recreation center or even shopping center lately, pickleball is definitely still going on strong. Invented in 1965 on Bainbridge Island, for many decades it was considered more of a seniors’ recreational activity. But with the recent explosion of interest and proliferation of courts, we may be about to see the same snowboarding vs skiing battle that occurred in the 1980s and 1990s, except instead of the young punks carving down the slopes, it’s people of all ages carving out Pickleball courts with tape to the dismay of their tennis-loving brethren and sound-sensitive neighbors.
According to the Sports and Fitness Industry Association (SFIA), “pickleball continues to be the fastest growing sport in America, having grown 51.8% from 2022 to 2023 and an incredible 223.5% in 4 years since 2020.” The sport has some similarities to tennis, table tennis, and badminton, but one reason it has become so popular is the social nature of it - often played as doubles - and the fact that since the court is smaller, there’s less running to engage in, but there is still the excitement of rapid volleying. The ability to serve underhand also makes it more accessible to new players.
Pickleball America bills itself as “one of the largest indoor pickleball venues in America” and with 80,000 sq ft at the Stamford Town Center, it clearly can live up to that claim. With clever events like “Dinko de Mayo” or resident events to bring a nearby living community together, pickleball could just be the glue that starts to bring people together for socialization and cure the loneliness epidemic. Indoor pickleball venues can also be a source of family fun, with lounges and fresh popcorn available, as well as foosball, table tennis, and essential board games.
Another sport that may be giving tennis and pickleball a run for its money is padel. This sport has the unique benefit of one being able to hit shots off the fence or wall, often made of glass or mesh, that is at the perimeter. So now we’re talking 3D thinking as one figures out what angles to hit.
One can fit about 2 padel courts on a tennis court, and up to 4 pickleball courts on a tennis court. So from an economics perspective, you can definitely charge for more people when playing padel or pickleball. Padel is described more as a mix of tennis, squash, and badminton and is the fastest-growing sport globally with over 25 million players in 90+ countries, per PadAthletes. At P1 Padel in Las Vegas, NV, the most popular times to frequent are in the evening from 6-8 PM. There is also a morning contingent between 9-11 AM.
Padel players at this location are quite loyal, with a majority coming 30+ times in the past 12 months.
With pickleball and padel nipping at its heels, the USTA (US Tennis Association) is fighting back with its own version of more accessible tennis, namely “red ball.” With a smaller court, a smaller racket, and balls that are up to 75% slower, this version helps newbies obtain control over the ball more quickly and has less ground to cover for those lateral runs and quick pivots. Schroeder Tennis Center in Tipp City, OH is one such location that is participating in this USTA pilot program. The bulk of visits are between 4-8 pm, which are prime post-school or post-work hours. According to the Tennis Industry Association, 23.8 million Americans ages 6 and older played tennis at least once in 2023 and 25.1 million Americans who didn’t play tennis in 2023 are “very interested” in doing so now.
Tennis has a long and storied history and iconic locations like Wimbledon and Roland Garros. What young tennis player doesn’t dream of their moment on Center Court? Tennis also has associations with country clubs and networking. It will likely remain the king of racquet sports. But these two new princes of pickleball and padel prove that tennis cannot just rest on its laurels but will need to evolve in order to stay competitive.
We’re in the midst of not only the beginning of the holiday season in retail, but also at the peak of wedding season. September and October are now the most popular months to get married, and fall weddings have become extremely popular with younger generations. Wedding planning encompasses so many different occasions, events and appointments, but none more important than wedding dress shopping.
The bridal retail space across the U.S. is incredibly fragmented, with much of the business being done by local boutiques and small chains with a handful of stores. However, there are still major retailers in the market and more entering each year. Brands in apparel have especially taken note with Abercrombie & Fitch, Reformation and e-commerce brands like Lulus all making a play at capturing a bride’s attention.
Two larger, more established forces in bridal retail include David’s Bridal and Anthropologie Weddings (formerly known as BHLDN). Both concepts have distinct value propositions for their consumers, but both aim at providing an elevated assortment and experience that is also value oriented. As value continues to be a motivating factor across all consumer decision making, both of these retailers have seen positive momentum in 2024.
Looking at year-over-year change in visitation, Anthropologie Weddings locations have consistently seen traffic growth in 2024 and have outperformed the total chain from a visitation perspective. The wedding shop is not located in all Anthropologie stores, but the stores that do have the concept cater to a higher income and trendy consumer; the location selection of towns such as Newport Beach, Westport, CT, and Newton, MA has certainly benefited the stores.
The median household income of visits to Anthropologie weddings is $117K compared to $94K chainwide. Despite the higher income profile of visitors to the wedding focused stores, Anthropologie Weddings still does appeal to value-conscious brides, despite socioeconomic status; most bridal gowns are under $2,500, which is still relatively affordable based on the industry standard.
Looking at the audience segmentation of visitors to Anthropologie Weddings compared to the total chain using PersonaLive, the wedding shops saw almost double the share of visits from Educated Urbanites, a key segment for a bridal business to not only capture, but convert. All of this highlights the success of the brand’s wedding strategy, from its location selection, to assortment and experience, which are distinctly Anthropologie, but also fitting of a special trip. Other retailers looking to make a splash in the bridal market should certainly look to Anthropologie as a case study in brand extension.
David’s Bridal had a challenging start to 2024, mirroring a few years of challenging foot traffic to its stores. However, around the midpoint of the year, there’s been an acceleration in visitation across the chain. Looking at visitation trends for 2023 and 2024, the brand started to close the gap in August. As a true value centered bridal retailer, the brand may have found its moment in the current economic climate.
Looking at the change in visitation throughout 2024, from January to July, on average, visits were down 32% YoY; from August through the most recent week, visits were down only 2% year-over-year. That’s a great improvement in trend against the backdrop of a challenging year, and even more interesting when thinking about the lead time brides have for ordering wedding gowns; most dresses for fall weddings would have been ordered in the winter or spring months, where David’s Bridal sees higher levels of visitation.
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The audience segmentation of the brand has also shifted over that time. Compared to 2023 as a benchmark, the period of August 2024 through present has seen a higher share of visits from Suburban Boomers and Melting Pot Families, and a slight increase in Young Professionals. The brand also stocks special occasion and homecoming dresses, which both could appeal to these groups.
Using Placer’s Frequent Co-Tenants report, David’s Bridal locations tend to be co-located with other specialty retailers, including Five Below, Ulta Beauty, and Ross Dress for Less, who are also value oriented and the latter two retailers have been doing well in securing more traffic. The stores may have benefits from their co-location with retailers that meet current consumer desires.
Weddings continue to be a big business across the U.S., and retailers that support the wedding industry have a lot of opportunities for growth, if they can find and appeal to the right consumer cohorts. Brides of all levels are looking for an elevated experience and selection, no matter her budget.
We’ve spent a lot of time this past year analyzing how consumer behavior has evolved across the broader food and essentials category, noting that consumers continue to shop a wide number of stores across multiple channels for food purchases. With the release of Placer Data Version 2.1, we thought we’d revisit the topic.
Below, we’ve presented total category visits for grocery stores (including both conventional and value grocery chains), superstores (including mass merchants and warehouse clubs), gas stations and convenience stores, dollar and discount stories (including liquidators), drugstores, quick-service restaurants (QSR), and full-service restaurants from 2019 to the trailing-twelve-month period (TTM0. A few takeaways: (1) Dollar stores saw the largest increase in total visits versus the other categories as they vastly expanded their food and consumables offering since 2019 to drive frequency and traffic. However, the pace of growth has decelerated materially over the past twelve months amid increased competitive pressure from superstore and value-oriented retailers like Aldi and 99 Cents Only Stores exiting the market; (2) drugstore visits have remained flat versus 2019 despite most of the major chains in the category undergoing store closure programs. We believe healthcare service and weight-loss drug prescriptions visits have helped to offset some of the store closures, although we continue to see some transfer of visits to other retail categories in this channel; and (3) the decline in full-service restaurants is partly due to permanent closures compared to 2019.
It gets interesting when we compare category-level retail sales data from the U.S. Census Bureau to our visitation data. Below, we’ve taken retail sales (on an unadjusted basis) for the same timeframe that we looked at above to analyze retail spend per visit. A few things stand out here: (1) Three categories saw the average retail sales per visit increase period of the analysis: QSR, full-service restaurants, and drugstores. The increase in drugstores is likely partly to due with the shift in sales mix to more healthcare related services, while the increase in QSR and full-service restaurant retail sales per visit likely explain this summer’s promotional activity to win back customers who traded to other channels; (2) The impact of increased promotional activity and fewer units purchased per transaction can be seen across the other categories, where we saw an inflection in retail sales per visit in 2023 and continuing into 2024 for most.
We also thought we’d assess dwell times across the different food and essentials retail categories (for purposes of this analysis, we’ve removed full-service restaurants, which have gone from an average dwell time of 52 minutes in 2019 to 49 minutes over the past twelve months, although we continue to see fine-dining chain dwell times exceed pre-pandemic levels as consumers look to maximize their experience when dining out). Here, we also see two callouts: (1) As consumers make food purchases across a wider number of channels, dwell time has decreased for most, matching the decrease in units per transaction that we've called out in the past. We did see dwell times increase for a few categories during the back half of 2023 which we believe was due to consumers engaging in price comparisons, but this has reversed in 2024 as consumers have now solidified new shopping routines (i.e., knowing what stores to get what deals); and (2) QSR dwell time remains below pre-pandemic levels, which isn’t surprising given that a higher percentage of transactions are now taking place via drive-thru and takeout orders. However, the increase in dwell time the past few years also suggests the potential for improved drive-thru optimization, a topic we recently analyzed.
1. Salt Lake City: Home-Centric Growth and Sustained Consumer Strength
Salt Lake City continues to outperform thanks to a young, fast-growing population and a strong homeownership culture. Retailers in home goods, grocery, and improvement categories are seeing significantly higher YoY foot traffic than the national average.
2. Reno: A Tourism Hub Evolving Beyond Gaming
The share of "Singles & Starters" among Reno's visitor base continues to climb – and this generational diversification is transforming the city into a year-round destination for dining, shopping, and entertainment while fueling traffic gains across Reno-area shopping centers.
3. Indianapolis: Family Affordability Fuels Retail Momentum
With strong employment, affordable housing, and a favorable cost-of-living ratio, discretionary retail and family-friendly dining concepts are particularly well positioned to thrive in this growing midwestern market.
4. Raleigh: Young, High-Earning Consumers Drive Mixed-Use Expansion
Raleigh’s relatively low median age and strong labor market are fueling demand for premium dining and retail, leading to foot traffic gains for upscale mixed-use developments.
5. Tampa: Urban Revival Powers Dining and Retail Gains
In-migration of Gen Z and millennial workers, together with rising office attendance, has boosted commuter and visitor traffic across Tampa’s urban core – helping Tampa's dining concepts grow faster than the national average and underscoring Tampa’s role as a Southeastern consumer hotspot.
Five metros from across the United States stand out for consumer momentum going into 2026: Salt Lake City (UT), Reno (NV), Indianapolis (IN), Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (FL), and Raleigh-Durham (NC). All five metro areas saw their populations increase by more than the average U.S. metro between 2023 and 2024, and year-over-year (YoY) retail and dining traffic trends outpaced the nationwide average.
Utah is one of the fastest-growing states in the U.S. The state’s population has grown steadily for more than two decades with unemployment remaining consistently below the nationwide average, with one of the youngest workforces in the country. According to some analysts, the median household income in Utah, when adjusted for cost of living, is the highest in the nation.
All of this positions Salt Lake City – the state’s capital – as a particularly attractive market heading into 2026. Location analytics show year-over-year increases in foot traffic across many neighborhoods, from established retail hubs like Sugar House and Downtown SLC to the more mixed-use Central City and primarily residential areas such as The Avenues and East Bench. The city also serves as a gateway to a diverse mix of audiences, attracting younger residents and commuters as well as affluent families who come into the city to shop, dine, and enjoy local attractions.
Salt Lake City’s diversity in age and household composition as well as Utah's strong homeownership culture – even among younger cohorts – creates opportunities for retail and dining chains across categories. Home-forward concepts are particularly poised to outperform, as shown by recent location analytics. Traffic to furniture & home furnishing chains increased 7.4% YoY in the Salt Lake City DMA compared to a 2.5% increase nationwide, and grocery stores and home improvement retailers outperformed in the market as well. These trends point to a solid market for retailers tied to home life – from furniture and décor to everyday grocery needs –driven not only by steady population growth and household spending, but also by a local culture that places strong emphasis on family and the home.
While Salt Lake City continues to build on its strong foundation, another Western city is quietly gaining momentum. Reno, Nevada, which is often viewed as a regional gaming-town, is increasingly emerging as a dynamic travel destination in its own right.
In 2024 Washoe County (including the city of Reno) welcomed approximately 3.8 million visitors whose spending of about $3.4 billion generated a total economic impact of $5.2 billion. This growth signals a robust visitor-economy that supports roughly 43,800 jobs and generates over $420 million in state and local tax revenue.
What makes this particularly compelling is that while Las Vegas, Nevada is facing mounting pressures from increasing costs, the Reno-Tahoe region is showing stronger resilience thanks in part to a drive-market model and diversified appeal. Analyzing the traffic data shows that visits from non-residents, and non-employees to downtown Reno have increased YoY for the past three years. And though Reno may be thought of as a vacation spot for older Gen X and Baby Boomer vacationers, the data also indicates that Singles & Starters –"young singles starting out and some starter families living a city lifestyle" – make up an increasingly large share of Reno's visitor base.
This generational diversification carries important implications for both retail and real estate investment. As younger visitors drive up spending in food, entertainment, and shopping centers, the market is poised for renewed urban energy – fueling redevelopment across downtown corridors and mixed-use projects. With strategic public–private investments and an expanding visitor economy, Reno stands out as a market to watch in 2026, combining strong fundamentals with emerging demographic momentum.
The Midwest also contains several metro areas on the rise. Large-scale manufacturing projects like Intel’s $20 billion chip plants and Honda and LG Energy Solution’s EV battery facility are spurring housing and retail expansion around Columbus, Ohio. Kansas City, Missouri, is benefiting from logistics growth and projected tourism growth linked to its role as a FIFA World Cup 2026 host city. And Madison, Wisconsin, is seeing steady consumer growth is supported by its diverse tech and biotech economy.
But Indianapolis, Indiana tops the charts in terms of YoY overall retail visit growth between May and October 2025 (+4.3%, see first chart). And much of the consumer traffic in the Indianapolis DMA consists of suburban and rural households – precisely the segments that many retailers are now trying to woo.
Family-friendly retailers and dining chains are particularly well positioned to thrive in Indiana heading into 2026. Indianapolis has some of the best job prospects and most affordable home prices in the country – and its favorable salary to cost of living ratio likely allows many families to have leftover income left over for discretionary spending.
Recent data shows that a range of family-oriented brands – from Chili’s and Marshall’s to Kroger – have outperformed in Indianapolis over the past six months. The city’s growing middle-income population and its suburban, family-focused consumer base appear to be fueling stronger in-person spending, particularly at convenient, affordable, and community-oriented retail and dining destinations.
Moving east to North Carolina brings several additional growing metros into focus, including Myrtle Beach, Wilmington, and Charlotte. But Raleigh rises above the pack with its powerful combination of job growth, steady in-migration, and a well-balanced, diversified economy.
All this is leading to YoY increases in total traffic within the Raleigh-Durham, NC DMA, driven in part by major firms – including entrants in finance and life-sciences – continuing to expand operations in the area. The city of Raleigh also has relatively low median age and relatively high median household income. This combination of robust job creation, wage gains, and a growing pool of young, high-spending residents positions Raleigh as one of the most dynamic consumer markets in the Southeast heading into 2026.
Raleigh's consumer growth potential is particularly stark when looking at performance of major mixed-use developments across the region. Foot traffic at leading projects such as Smoky Hollow, the Main District at North Hills Street, and Fenton in Cary has climbed sharply.
The data also shows that these destinations attract a disproportionately high share of wealthy singles and one-person households – a demographic with strong discretionary spending power. Together, these trends point to a deepening base of urban, high-income consumers fueling growth in dining, retail, and entertainment – making Raleigh one of the country's most dynamic and opportunity-rich metro areas heading into 2026.
In the Southeast, Tampa is one of the nation’s standout metro areas heading into 2026. Strong fundamentals – such as no state income tax and expanding employment in sectors like technology, healthcare, and logistics – have attracted a significant influx of Gen Z and millennial residents. And although in-migration is beginning to slow somewhat, the city's expanding economy and youthful talent base continue to fuel growth across housing, retail, and dining.
And as more companies require employees to spend additional days in the office, YoY commuter traffic has increased across Tampa’s major cities. Leisure visits from non-residents are also on the rise, suggesting that retailers and dining chains seeking to capture this expanding market could benefit from growing their presence throughout the Tampa metro area.
Rising traffic across Tampa’s major urban areas appears to be translating into stronger dining activity as well. Over the past six months, average YoY visits to Tampa area full-service restaurants, coffee shops, and fast-casual chains have all exceeded the national average, which may reflect a broader acceleration in both local workforce and leisure-visitor demand.
1. Retail is deeply divided. Visits to value and luxury apparel segments grew YoY in 2025 while traffic to mid-tier retailers flagged.
2. Upscale dining momentum reflects similar bifurcation. More resilient, affluent consumers are bolstering fine-dining traffic.
3. Authenticity is key. Brands successfully executing on a clear sense of purpose – from community-driven grocers to bookstores – are driving consistent visit growth.
4. Online and offline retail are converging into a seamless ecosystem. As consumers seek online value and in-person convenience, AI fulfillment, dark stores, and local pickup are accelerating.
5. Digitally native brands expanding into physical retail are redefining omnichannel. These chains provide a blueprint for merging digital efficiency with personalized in-store experiences.
6. Traditionally urban brands are shifting to suburbia to capture new audiences. With consumers rooted in hybrid lifestyles and growing suburban demand, chains that adapt their footprints drive fresh traffic.
7. Expansion into college markets and celebrity pop-ups are helping retailers and malls connect with younger consumers. Brands that grew their footprints in college towns or on campuses increased their Gen Z traffic, as did malls that hosted celebrity or influencer activations.
Retail and dining faced another complex year in 2025. Persistent economic headwinds and uncertainty surrounding tariffs intensified consumers’ focus on value, even as affluent shoppers continued to indulge in luxury brands and upscale dining experiences.
Yet the year also revealed behavioral shifts that extended beyond price sensitivity. Shoppers increasingly prioritized brands that convey authenticity and a clear sense of purpose – those that deliver value not only through price, but through omnichannel convenience, product quality, and brand ethos.
For their part, retailers and malls continued to evolve, adopting strategies to capture both the expanding suburban market and a rising generation of younger consumers emerging as a defining force in retail.
How have these trends evolved, and how will they shape the retail landscape in 2026? We dove into the data to find out.
The first three quarters of 2025 underscored a widening divide in the apparel sector, with strength at both ends of the price and income spectrums.
Off-price retailers and thrift stores, which draw shoppers from lower- and middle-income trade areas, gained significant ground – reflecting consumers’ ongoing search for value and treasure-hunt experiences that feel both economical and rewarding. At the same time, luxury maintained modest growth, showing that high-income shoppers remain resilient and willing to spend on premium experiences. Meanwhile, traditional apparel and mid-tier department stores continued to see visit declines, signaling further pressure on the retail middle. Retailers such as Target and Kohl’s, traditional staples of this middle segment, are contending with the challenge of defining their identity to consumers in a market increasingly split between value and luxury.
Looking ahead to 2026, mid-tier retailers will need to navigate a complex and polarized landscape. Without the clear positioning enjoyed by value and luxury players, success will require sharper differentiation and disciplined execution. But though the middle remains a tough place to compete, it still holds potential: Brands that can redefine relevance – something many of these same chains achieved just a few years ago – stand to capture consumers with spending power.
A similar bifurcation dynamic is also unfolding in the dining sector.
Upscale full-service restaurants (FSRs) are outperforming their casual dining counterparts, as higher-income consumers – and those dining out for special occasions – seek elevated experiences at fine-dining chains.
At the same time, more cost-conscious diners are trading down from casual dining FSRs to fast-casual chains, which continue to outperform the casual dining segment. Fast-casual brands are also benefiting from trading up within the limited-service segment, as consumers who choose to eat out – rather than eat at home or grab a lower-cost prepared meal at a c-store or grocery – opt for more experiences that feel more premium yet remain accessible.
Across both retail and dining, bifurcation doesn’t tell the whole story. Even as spending concentrates at the high and low ends of the market, a growing number of brands are succeeding by delivering an experience that feels intentional, distinctive, and true to their identity. These concepts share a clear raison d’être – a sense of purpose that resonates with consumers – as well as successful execution. The data shows that brands providing this kind of “on-point” experience are driving consistent visit growth in 2025, signaling that authenticity may be important retail currency in 2026.
Trader Joe’s sustained momentum reflects its ability to make shopping feel like discovery. The chain’s locally-inspired assortments, roughly 80% private-label mix, and steady rotation of seasonal products keep visits fresh and engagement high.
Sprouts, for its part, continues to benefit from a sharpened identity centered on freshness, sustainability, and health. Its smaller-format stores, curated product mix, and messaging around healthy living have helped it build a loyal base of wellness‐oriented shoppers.
Meanwhile, Barnes & Noble’s transformation offers a compelling case study in the power of experience. Its strategy of empowering local managers to curate store selections and host community events has turned stores into cultural touchpoints – driving increased visits and dwell times.
All three brands derive their strength from their clarity of purpose – illustrating how authenticity and intentionality are becoming meaningful factors shaping consumer engagement.
Authenticity isn’t limited to national names. Regional players such as H-E-B and In-N-Out Burger demonstrate how deeply ingrained local identity can translate into sustained growth.
H-E-B’s community-driven ethos, local sourcing, and operational excellence have built trust across Texas markets, helping it remain one of the country’s most beloved grocery chains, with high rates of shoppers visiting multiple times a month. And in the quick-service category, California-native In-N-Out Burger stands out for its quality, nostalgia, and mystique, as the chain continues to attract visitation trends that exceed national QSR benchmarks.
These brands demonstrate that authenticity can have a local element. Their success reflects not just product strength or efficiency, but a deeper connection to the communities they serve.
While regional and experience-driven brands continue to build deep consumer connections, the broader retail landscape is also being reshaped by operational innovation. As technology and infrastructure improve, retailers are finding new ways to merge digital efficiency with convenient physical touchpoints.
E-commerce growth and in-store activity are increasingly interconnected. Visits to ecommerce distribution centers* climbed steadily between October 2021 and September 2025, while the share of short, under-10-minute trips to big-box chains Target, Walmart, BJ’s Wholesale Club, and Sam’s Club also increased. Together, these patterns suggest that while online shopping continues to expand, consumers remain highly engaged with physical locations through buy-online-pick-up-in-store (BOPIS) and same-day fulfillment channels – combining the value of online deals with the convenience of quick, local pickup.
This trend also reflects ongoing advancements in AI-driven fulfillment and Walmart’s testing of dark stores – retail spaces converted into local fulfillment hubs that accelerate delivery and enable quick customer pickup. These innovations are shortening fulfillment windows while optimizing store networks for hybrid demand.
As retailers continue to blur the boundaries between digital and physical commerce in 2026, expect them to become increasingly complementary parts of a single, omnichannel ecosystem.
*The Placer.ai E-commerce Distribution Center Index measures foot traffic across more than 400 distribution centers nationwide, including facilities operated by leading retailers such as Amazon, Walmart, and Target. Designed as a barometer for U.S. e-commerce activity, the index captures two key audiences: employees, estimated through dwell-time patterns, and visitors, who often represent logistics partners delivering raw materials, moving in-process goods, or collecting finished products.
The resurgence of digitally native brands embracing physical retail underscores how online and offline strategies are converging into an integrated model, combining digital efficiency with the benefits of a physical presence.
Framebridge, a DTC custom framing brand, offers a clear example of this trend. As the brand has expanded its footprint, the average number of monthly visits to each of its locations rose sharply throughout 2025.
Framebridge’s success lies in its well-executed omnichannel model. Customers can place orders online or in store, with the option to ship directly to their homes or pick up in person.
But for Framebridge, physical locations aren’t just about convenience. Art and memories are often one of a kind, so having knowledgeable staff in store and the opportunity to engage with materials firsthand transforms a transaction into a personalized, consultative experience.
Framebridge exemplifies how digitally native brands are merging the ease of online shopping with physical spaces that provide a personal touch. And more digitally native brands, like Gymshark, are looking to bring their business offline with the hope of adding value for consumers.
As retailers advance their omnichannel strategies, another enduring shift is reshaping the retail map post-pandemic – the continued rise of suburban traffic. Brands that entered the pandemic with strong suburban footprints were among the first to benefit as in-person activity rebounded, while urban-focused chains that expanded outward have met migrating consumers and captured new audiences anchored in hybrid lifestyles and local shopping routines.
Large-format and drive-thru focused brands like Costco, Cava, and Dutch Bros. entered the pandemic era from a position of strength as they are traditionally situated in suburban and exurban areas. As consumers spent more time close to home and away from urban centers, these chains captured heightened local demand and saw visits rebound rapidly once in-person shopping resumed.
And as the pandemic reshaped consumer traffic patterns, brands like Shake Shack and Chipotle quickly recognized emerging opportunities in suburban markets and adjusted their strategies to capture this shifting demand. For Shake Shack – a brand once defined by its urban storefronts – the shift toward suburban drive-thrus and stand-alone locations represented a significant pivot. Chipotle followed a similar path, accelerating its suburban expansion through the rollout of “Chipotlane” drive-thru lanes.
Arriving somewhat later to the suburban landscape, sweetgreen, once synonymous with its urban footprint, opened its first drive-thru in 2022, and by 2024 had made suburban markets a core pillar of its growth strategy.
These real estate moves positioned all three brands to capture demand from remote and hybrid workers, helping sustain visit growth well above pre-pandemic baselines.
As suburban demand continues to grow, the suburbs will likely remain a critical growth frontier for many brands in the year ahead.
Investment in suburban markets underscores how changing market conditions and strategy adaptation can allow brands to meet consumers where they are. And a parallel trend is unfolding in college towns and youth-dense trade areas, where brands are channeling investment to capture rising Gen Z spending power.
Expansion in college-anchored markets, paired with celebrity and influencer-driven pop-ups, is helping retailers build cultural relevance and increase engagement with this emerging consumer base.
The graph below underscores how targeted expansion into college-anchored markets can meaningfully shift audience composition. Over the last several years, many brands have expanded their near-campus footprints – and in turn, attracted a higher share of the Spatial.ai:PersonaLive “Young Urban Singles” segment, one highly aligned with Gen Z consumers.
CAVA’s rapid unit growth, including openings near major universities and in college towns, helped the brand increase its share of “Young Urban Singles” within its captured trade areas between October 2018-September 2019 and October 2024-September 2025. Meanwhile, Panda Express and Raising Cane's, which already had relatively large shares of the segment six years ago, have also invested in college-adjacent locations, lifting their “Young Urban Singles” audience share.
Even legacy mass retailer Target benefited from small-format and large store expansions near universities – growing its captured market share of “Young Urban Singles”.
These shifts suggest that college towns will continue to be strategic growth markets, including for luxury brands like Hermès. By making inroads in college towns and with Gen Z shoppers, brands can strengthen loyalty early and build durable market share that remains as these young adults move on from campus life.
As Gen Z’s influence expands beyond campus borders, retail engagement is increasingly driven by cultural moments that resonate with this cohort. And malls are finding that temporary pop-ups including influencer collaborations and celebrity-led activations can attract these young consumers.
At The Grove, the Pandora pop-up with brand ambassador girl-group Katseye in October 2024 led to a modest but significant increase in the Gen Z-dominant “Young Professionals” and “Young Urban Singles” segments within the mall’s captured trade area during the first week of the activation – compared to the average for the last twelve months.
Similarly, at Westfield Century City, the Taylor Swift x TikTok activation from October 3rd-9th, 2025 – which allowed fans to immerse themselves in the sets from the viral “The Fate of Ophelia” music video boosted the shares of “Young Urban Singles” and Young Professionals”, underscoring the star power of everything Taylor Swift.
And at American Dream, the pattern extended beyond younger audiences. On September 5th and 6th, 2025, Ninja Kidz attended the grand opening of their Action Park while Salish Matters made an appearance at the mall on September 6th for her skincare pop-up – which drew such large crowds that it had to be shut down. During these two event days, the mall’s shares of both “Young Professionals” and “Ultra-Wealthy Families” increased substantially, highlighting that pop-up events can draw young and affluent family audiences.
Together, these examples reinforce that, in 2026, the integration of short-term pop-ups will continue to be a strategy for malls and individual brands to gain relevance for key demographic segments.
2025 reinforced that retail remains as dynamic as ever. Value continues to anchor decisions, but consumers are redefining what value means – blending price sensitivity with expectations for authenticity. And in the current retail landscape, online and physical retail are growing more interconnected as consumers demand convenience and experience.
In 2026, adaptability will be retailers’ greatest competitive edge. The next era of retail will belong to brands that can continue to refine their operating strategy – while staying true to a clear brand identity.
1) Retail foot traffic faces lingering pressure – making promotions more critical than ever. Financial uncertainty, tariffs, and inflation continue to weigh on discretionary spending, making well-timed, targeted holiday promotions essential to reignite demand and drive in-store traffic.
2) The retail divide appears set to widen this holiday season – Luxury and off-price apparel are both outpacing overall retail, reflecting a deepening bifurcation of consumer behavior. And this December, the affluence gap between the two categories is expected to expand further, underscoring opportunities to engage both premium and value-focused shoppers across segments.
3) Despite slower overall performance, beauty and electronics have performed well during recent retail milestones. To make the most of this momentum, advertisers should align campaigns with shifting holiday audiences – electronics toward married homeowners and beauty toward affluent suburban families.
4) Early Promotions Could Lift In-Store Traffic – Last year, early holiday campaigns helped offset a shorter shopping season and sustain strong results. With another condensed window and continued shipping disruptions, retailers who start early and emphasize in-store availability will be best positioned to capture additional visits and outperform 2024’s results.
The holiday season is fast approaching, but this year’s backdrop looks especially complex. Consumers are navigating heightened financial uncertainty, with tariffs driving up prices and disrupting supply, while inflation continues to weigh on discretionary spending.
For retailers and advertisers, the stakes are high. The holiday period remains a critical window for promotional engagement, and success will depend on understanding consumer behavior and crafting promotions that are timed, targeted, and designed to meet shoppers where they are.
We turned to foot traffic data to uncover the key trends shaping this season’s retail environment, and to identify promotional strategies likely to succeed.
Consumer activity appeared strong in most of early 2025 – except in February, when extreme weather and leap-year comparisons drove sharp year-over-year (YoY) declines. But foot traffic slowed this summer, highlighting the toll of lingering financial uncertainty and strain.
For advertisers, this underscores how pivotal seasonal promotions will be in reigniting demand. With many consumers cutting back on discretionary spending, well-timed and well-targeted campaigns will be essential to encourage shoppers to spend more freely during the holidays. These promotions don’t have to rely solely on price cuts — pop-culture collaborations and other creative product launches have also proven highly effective in driving traffic this year.
> Financial uncertainty and tighter household budgets are weighing on retail foot traffic this year – making effective holiday promotions more critical than ever.
Still, not all retail categories have been equally affected by broader economic headwinds. Some segments have experienced softer demand, signaling where advertisers may need to take a more measured, efficiency-focused approach. Others, however, have shown notable resilience – offering opportunities to double down on creative promotions that deepen engagement during the holidays.
One such segment is home furnishings, which has seen YoY traffic gains over the past 12 months, driven by the strong performance of discount chains as shoppers favor accessible décor updates over large-scale renovations. Strategic campaigns highlighting affordable refreshes and quick “holiday-ready” makeovers could give the category an additional lift in Q4, as households look to update their spaces in preparation for hosting family and friends.
But the biggest gains have been in the apparel category, where a bifurcation trend has emerged, boosting visits at both luxury and off-price retailers. The success of both segments underscores promotional strategies that can amplify momentum – steep-value discounts on one end of the spectrum, and exclusivity and quality on the other. Advertisers across retail segments can adapt this dual approach to engage both budget-driven and premium audiences effectively.
And demographic data reveals just how deeply entrenched this bifurcation has become – especially during the holiday season.
The chart below examines monthly changes in the median household incomes (HHIs) of luxury and off-price retailers’ captured markets since January 2023. Even small shifts in HHI across major retail categories can signal meaningful changes in audience composition – and these patterns tell a clear story.
In luxury apparel, where the median HHI is well above the national average of $79.6K, visitor income follows a distinct seasonal rhythm. During the early holiday shopping period, HHI remains lower in October and dips slightly in November as middle-income shoppers take advantage of early promotions to snag products that may be out of reach the rest of the year. It then rises in December as affluent consumers return to purchase gifts. Notably, luxury HHI has trended upward since 2023 – with each holiday peak higher than the last – suggesting that this December’s visitor base will be even more affluent than last year.
For advertisers, this means late-season campaigns should prioritize prestige audiences while still engaging aspirational shoppers during early holiday promotions like Black Friday.
In the off-price apparel segment, on the other hand, median HHI typically declines during the holidays – especially in December – indicating an influx of more price-sensitive shoppers. And over time, this visitor base has become even more value-driven, reinforcing the importance of promotional messaging that emphasizes unbeatable deals and savings.
Together, these patterns once again highlight the growing need for tailored strategies: premium experiences for high earners and sharp value propositions for cost-conscious consumers – a lesson that may extend well beyond these categories.
>The retail divide is expected to deepen further in December 2025, with off-price retailers drawing more value-driven shoppers and luxury brands attracting increasingly affluent consumers.
In a challenging economic environment, one might expect promotions around key retail milestones to prompt consumers to deviate from their usual habits, experimenting with new brands or categories. Yet the data shows that, for the most part, shoppers instead deepened their engagement with the retailers they already patronize – utilizing holiday promotions to buy the same products at better prices.
The graph below shows that during recent shopping milestones, the off-price and luxury categories both stood out in YoY performance – reflecting the strong momentum sustained by both segments over the past twelve months.
Still, the graph above also highlights two additional segments potentially poised for holiday success: beauty & self care and electronics.
Despite slower traffic over the past year, beauty retailers saw notable spikes around key recent promotional moments – including Black Friday, Mother’s Day, and Memorial Day. And although electronics retailers continued to face headwinds as consumers delayed big-ticket purchases – including during last year’s Black Friday – more recent milestones have seen traffic stabilize or even increase YoY.
This indicates that the right promotional environment can still effectively drive engagement in these discretionary categories, and that deal-driven behavior is likely to remain a defining theme this holiday season. In addition, as the replacement cycle begins for major electronics first purchased during the pandemic, shoppers may be especially willing to upgrade to a new TV or laptop if the right offer comes along.
But to make the most of the opportunity presented by Q4, advertisers and retailers in the beauty and electronics spaces should pay close attention to the shifting demographics of their in-store audiences during the holiday season.
For electronics retailers, married couples and homeowners become increasingly important during the peak holiday shopping period. Their share in the category’s captured market rises consistently each December, indicating that campaigns emphasizing household upgrades, family entertainment, and quality-of-life improvements may resonate most effectively in late Q4.
In contrast, beauty retailers – typically buoyed by young professionals – see their audience composition shift towards suburbia during the holidays. In December, the share of wealthy suburban families in beauty retailers’ captured markets grows meaningfully, while the share of young professionals declines. Advertisers can capitalize by highlighting premium bundles, limited-edition sets, and gifting options that speak directly to these households’ desire for premium, family-oriented products.
> Off-price and luxury retailers maintained strong performance during major retail milestones, but beauty and electronics stand out as rising opportunities for the 2025 holiday season.
> As holiday demographics shift during the holiday season – with electronics drawing more married homeowners and beauty attracting wealthier suburban families – campaigns that reflect these audiences’ lifestyles and priorities will resonate most.
Timing is also a decisive factor in retailer and advertiser success during the holiday season.
Traditionally, the “core” holiday retail period begins with Black Friday and continues until Christmas Eve. But in 2024, there was one fewer week between these two milestones compared to the previous year. And to compensate, many retailers launched an “early” holiday season, rolling out promotions in October and early November to maximize consumer engagement.
As the graph below shows, the shorter “core” season of 2024 unsurprisingly drew less in-store traffic across retail categories than the longer period the year before. Yet by embracing early promotions, retailers offset much of this shortfall, leading to overall holiday season results that, in many cases, matched or even exceeded 2023’s performance.
Looking ahead, 2025 once again brings a compressed “core” shopping window. And with shipping disruptions still influenced by shifting tariff regulations, more consumers may turn to brick-and-mortar stores earlier in the season to ensure timely purchases – further supporting offline traffic.
If retailers and advertisers double down on early-season engagement while continuing to drive momentum through the “core” weeks, YoY traffic for the 2025 holiday season could deliver even bigger overall gains than those seen in 2024.
> Last year, early holiday promotions helped offset a shorter core holiday season.
> In 2025, retail and advertising professionals are again faced with a relatively short core shopping season. And aware of the condensed timeline and shipping disruptions, more shoppers may opt for early in-store purchases to avoid the risk of delayed deliveries.
This holiday season will reward advertisers and retailers who recognize the growing retail divide and tailor their messaging to the shoppers most likely to visit during the holidays – whether married homeowners on the hunt for electronics or affluent suburban families seeking beauty products. As in 2024, acting early to offset a shorter core shopping period will be essential to capturing demand. And those who combine sharp timing with audience insight will be best positioned to turn a complex season into a strong finish.
