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While the overall luxury apparel market has seen its traffic slow in recent months, Coach is seeing visit growth. The company posted an impressive 15% increase in revenue year-over-year (YoY) in Q1 2025 – and YoY visits were also elevated.
Overall foot traffic grew in all but one analyzed month of 2025, culminating in May 2025 with 7.5% YoY visit growth.
Some of Coach’s success may be tied to its positioning as an affordable luxury brand. The company has also made attracting younger, Gen Z consumers, a priority. And this focus appears to be paying off, as evidenced by its demographic and psychographic data.
Nationwide, visitors to Coach stores typically come from trade areas with a median household income (HHI) of $82.5K. While higher than the nationwide median of $79.6K, this figure remains significantly lower than the $109.3K median HHI of traditional luxury shoppers. And this disparity in income suggests that the “affordable” part of the affordable luxury retail experience is resonating.
And diving into the psychographic data for Coach’s captured market further supports this idea: visitors to Coach came from trade areas with much lower shares of “Power Elite” shoppers, defined by the Experian: Mosaic as the wealthiest households in the country. And the share of “Singles and Starters” – city-based Gen Z professionals – was higher than that of luxury shoppers.
Taken together, these data points suggest that Coach is driving success by reaching a consumer segment not typically targeted by other major luxury brands. Coach's strong performance in a challenging retail environment suggests that luxury's appeal is broader than often assumed and highlights the opportunities created by tailoring products to a wider range of consumers.
Aside from offering affordable luxuries to a wide range of shoppers, Coach also places a strong emphasis on creating compelling retail experiences. In 2023, the company introduced its interactive Coach Play stores – designed for experiential shopping – as well as Coachtopia, a new product line focused on sustainability that currently has twelve dedicated stores across the country.
And diving into the visit data for one of these Coachtopia locations suggests that, much like Coach Play stores, this retail concept encourages visitors to linger. Visitors to a Coachtopia store in The Grove, Los Angeles, stayed, on average, 30% longer than visitors to other Coach stores in California.
Visitors to the store also tended to come from trade areas where the median household income, while exceeding the nationwide median ($88.1K compared to $79.6K), was lower than that of the average Coach shopper and the average California resident. This suggests that concepts like Coachtopia are not only attracting their target audience – middle-income shoppers who value affordable luxuries – this demographic is also happy to spend more time in-store.
Coach’s success, especially in a period marked by significant challenges for the apparel and luxury markets, serves as a reminder that perceived worth can make even a luxury purchase compelling for a wide audience.
Will Coach continue to see foot traffic and visit success in the second half of the year? Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven retail insights.
DICK's Sporting Goods outlined a number of reasons behind its decision to acquire Foot Locker this week, including: creating a global platform in the sporting goods retail category, strengthening partnerships with suppliers, and improving its omnichannel capabilities. However, the opportunity to tap into a larger target audience strikes us as the most interesting rationale behind the acquisition, so we thought we’d take a closer look using Placer.ai data.
Foot Locker has a strong presence in malls and urban centers, coupled with its deep connection to sneaker culture and a younger, more fashion-conscious demographic. On the other hand, DICK's has traditionally attracted a broader, family-oriented sporting goods appeal and suburban footprint. Our data reflects this, with the captured market data for the DICK’s Sporting Goods banners showing higher median household income ($87.4K) relative to the Foot Locker banners ($62.3K) as well as a higher percentage of visitors with a Bachelor’s Degree and a smaller household size.
While there are a number strategic benefits for DICK's Sporting Goods acquiring Foot Locker, the significant expansion and diversification of its customer reach is paramount. For major brand partners like Nike and adidas, this unified retail entity presents a compelling advantage: access to Foot Locker's younger, urban, and fashion-forward "sneakerhead" demographic alongside DICK's established suburban consumers through a single, more influential wholesale relationship, thereby maximizing their market penetration and simplifying brand messaging across a broader spectrum of the U.S. consumer landscape. This should also allow for stronger co-marketing opportunities between the footwear brands and retailers, which is crucial in an industry where major brands are increasingly focused on direct-to-consumer strategies.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Small-format stores are all the rage. Retailers from Macy’s to IKEA are experimenting with more compact locations to save on operating costs, expand into new markets, and offer customers a more convenient, curated shopping experience.
But just how effective is this approach? Is “going small” truly the key to brick-and-mortar retail success in 2025?
We dove into the data to find out.
One chain that has successfully embraced a small-format strategy is Sprouts Farmers Market, the upscale, fresh-format grocery brand that has been steadily expanding over the past few years. Since 2022, the chain has pivoted from its traditional 30,000-32,000-square-foot stores to a more compact model of around 23,000 square feet. And location analytics suggest that this shift has been instrumental in Sprouts’ ongoing success.
In Q1 2025, the average number of visits per Sprouts location nationwide rose 4.4% year over year (YoY). But the chains’ smaller-format stores – those under 24,000 square feet – saw an even more impressive 8.8% YoY jump.
And digging into demographic data reveals that these smaller stores are helping Sprouts connect with new, urban audiences while still appealing to its core suburban customer base. Like Sprouts’ larger stores, the smaller outlets attract a higher-than-average share of “Suburban Periphery” shoppers, though less than the chain overall. But these smaller stores also draw more customers from urban areas – including shoppers from “Principal Urban Centers” that tend to be under-represented in Sprouts’ trade areas. Meanwhile, small-format Sprouts’ also attract visitors from slightly less affluent areas (though still above the nationwide median) – showing how Sprouts is expanding its audience without losing its suburban, affluent core.
Kohl’s is another chain demonstrating the potential of scaled-down stores. In 2022, the retailer announced plans to open about 100 smaller-format stores – around 35,000 square feet – a marked reduction from Kohl’s typical 80,000-square-foot footprint. And the success of Kohl’s 37,000 square-foot “concept” store in Tacoma, WA – opened in November 2022 as a testing ground for this format – showcases the promise of this approach.
The store offers a curated selection of active lifestyle products geared towards local preferences – as well as an improved self-pickup area. And location analytics suggest that the location’s offerings are resonating: The Tacoma store’s convenient set-up appears to help speed up shopping trips, as reflected by reduced dwell times. And over the past two quarters, YoY visits at the Tacoma Kohl’s have significantly outperformed other area locations.
But going small isn’t the only recipe for retail success in 2025. Some chains are finding that bigger is better – creating gigantic stores that offer an unforgettable shopping experience, and keep customers coming back.
Convenience stores are rarely known for their size – but Buc-ee’s, the Texan favorite that holds the record for the largest c-store in the world, is the exception that proves the rule. Many of Buc-ee’s locations exceed 70,000 square feet. And over the past 12 months, Buc-ee’s has enjoyed consistent YoY visit growth, even as the broader category has languished. The massive c-store’s over-the-top offerings, from homemade fudge to Beaver Nuggets, have cemented Buc-ee’s reputation as a destination in its own right.
Supersized store formats have also fueled success in the recreational and sporting goods space. Dick’s House of Sport, Bass Pro Shop, and other chains have invested in expansive, experiential stores meant to serve as community hubs for sports fans and outdoor enthusiasts. And expanding Midwestern and Mountain State brand Scheels is emerging as a benchmark for this approach.
Roughly half of Scheels stores span at least 200,000 square feet, featuring attractions like Ferris wheels, massive saltwater aquariums, shooting galleries, archery lanes, and more. Unsurprisingly, these entertainment-oriented spaces draw more weekend crowds than other sporting goods stores. The chain has also grown its audience, outperforming the wider sector for YoY visit growth.
The takeaway? There’s no single formula for retail success in 2025. But whether scaled-down and curated or grandiose and experiential, retail chains that intentionally and creatively leverage their physical spaces to engage audiences will continue to thrive.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit Placer.ai.
So far, 2025 has completely shifted the retail industry away from its status quo. Sectors that appeared to be on the rise at the end of 2024 have seen a stall in momentum, while others that faced challenging terrain last year have found some new opportunities. Economic uncertainty and changes in consumer sentiment have pushed consumers to be even more value oriented than we observed over the last two years.
Consumers are also looking to prepare themselves appropriately for future headwinds; in many cases this change is reflected in the types of retailers shopped. One sector of non-discretionary retail that had been at the forefront of this trend over the past few years has been dollar & discount chains. This group of retailers benefited from increasing inflationary pressures and an enhanced consumer focus on value. Beyond changing consumer behaviors, the sector also expanded the number of store locations and range of communities covered across the country, which brought more value-centered options to shoppers beyond superstores.
Last year (2024) represented a shift in the dollar & discount category, with visitation decelerating throughout the year according to Placer’s foot traffic estimates. Market saturation, challenges within individual chains, and the constriction of buying power among lower income households all contributed to a year that wasn’t up to expectations. However, 2025 has proven to be a new opportunity for chains to regain their footing with consumers.
Year-to-date, the industry is running up 3% in visits compared to the same period last year; while this isn’t necessarily far off the trends in 2024, it certainly is outperforming other non-discretionary sectors. Looking at the performance by retail chain reveals that Dollar General, Dollar Tree and Five Below are all overperforming the total category as well.
One trend that has continued from 2024 for top performing chains is consumer loyalty. Dollar General and Dollar Tree have seen an increase in loyal visitors, defined as visiting three or more times per month, compared to last year. Dollar General specifically also has a very high level of loyal visitors, with 36% of visitors shopping three times per month. Dollar stores fill a distinct need in shoppers’ retail rolodex, and especially as chains focus on expanding their assortments, the value proposition for customers becomes further cemented.
Dollar chains are primed to be an asset to consumers as economic and financial uncertainty continues, but consumers may also continue to be more discerning overall. Dollar chains must continue to innovate and expand assortments, particularly in grocery, to stay competitive as warehouse clubs and superstores also vie for attention.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
The drugstore and pharmacy space has faced significant challenges in recent years, and recently, Rite Aid announced that it would be closing all its locations. We took a look at the location intelligence for Rite Aid and the chains buying its closing locations to see how this closure might affect visits to the other chains.
The past few years have seen a dramatic shift in the way people purchase their prescriptions and other health-related sundries – and Rite Aid, in particular, was heavily affected by this shift. The chain had made several attempts over the past few years to rightsize and restructure in hopes of turning around its fortunes. But in May 2025, amidst bankruptcy proceedings, the company announced it would be closing all of its remaining locations and selling its business – primarily to CVS Pharmacy, with some going to Walgreens, Albertsons, Kroger, and Giant Eagle.
Rite Aid had already spent much of 2023 and 2024 closing stores, a factor that certainly fueled its 37.2% year-over-year (YoY) dip in foot traffic in Q1 2025. Meanwhile, CVS – which has also been closing stores – saw its visits and visits per location grow in Q1 2025, by 2.6% and 5.1%, respectively. And Walgreens, in the midst of its own rightsizing moves, experienced relatively flat visit numbers, with only minor YoY dips.
CVS is poised to be a major beneficiary of Rite Aid’s closure, taking over business from hundreds of its locations. And a look at demographic and psychographic data shows that the move stands to offer CVS greater access to older consumers – a key demographic in the pharmacy space. Rite Aid’s stores also attract a more middle-income shopper, helping to broaden CVS’ customer base.
A look at geographic segmentation data shows that CVS’s assumption of Rite Aid business will also grant it greater inroads into semirural and urban audiences.
Rite Aid has its largest presence in California (347 stores), Pennsylvania (345 locations), and New York (178 stores). And data from Esri: Tapestry Segmentation highlights differences in where shoppers at the two drugstore chains tend to come from – both nationwide and in its major markets.
CVS sees higher shares of “Suburban Periphery” visitors in all the analyzed markets, while Rite Aid sees higher shares of “Semirural” visitor segments, both nationwide and across its largest markets. This reinforces that CVS stands to significantly expand its footprint in less dense, semi-rural communities by acquiring Rite Aid assets.
While some common threads can be seen across visitor types by state, there are also notable differences, highlighting the importance of diversification across geographic segments for comprehensive market coverage. For instance, in New York, Rite Aid holds a higher share of visitors from “Principal Urban Centers” (18.8%) than CVS (13.3%). This suggests CVS may be able to expand both its semirural and urban reach as it assumes Rite Aid's former customer base.
Rite Aid’s closure highlights the challenges facing the retail healthcare segment – but it also opens up new opportunities for other chains as they absorb these closed stores.
What will the retail pharmacy and healthcare segment look like in the coming months? Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven retail insights.
First Eataly opened introducing patrons to the delights of freshly made pasta, mozzarella, and delectable ragu. With its all-in-one grocery and food hall appeal, one could savor delicacies from different regions of Italy. Jose Andres also raised the bar with his Mercado Little Spain at Hudson Yards, transporting you to Spain with its jamon iberico, crowd favorite Jaleo, and a host of Spanish restaurants. Now we cross culinary continents over to Asia as Jagalchi Food Hall and Grocery Store opens at Serramonte Center in Daly City, to the joy of aficionados of Korean food.
At 75,000 sq ft, Jagalchi takes over a former JCPenney store. Inside, separate seafood, meat, and produce areas await. The butcher offers high-end meats like Japanese A5 wagyu ribeye. At the oyster bar, one can find oysters and sushi. For those wanting hot food, snacks like freshly fried Korean pancakes, fried potato swirls, rose tteokboki and mandu (meat dumplings) are available for purchase.
In the middle of the store is a Michelin starred restaurant, Pogu, where diners can choose from authentic Korean dishes with a contemporary twist, such as eel bibimbap, seafood and tofu hotpot, and buckwheat noodles.
To further enhance the feeling of a jaunt to Korea, K-pop music wafts through the air and a large selection of K-beauty is available to peruse. Shoppers note the modern interior and trendy vibe with some calling it the Erewhon of Korean grocery stores. To add to the experiential feeling, there are carts labeled with street food that give you that Asian night-market alley feeling. And to complete the culinary experience, Jagalchi offers a wide variety of sool, or Korean rice wines, such as makgeolli or soju.
No meal would be complete without dessert and Jagalchi has an onsite bakery, Basquia, which features rice-flour baked goodies. Crowd pleasers include strawberry sulpang, made of a special sweet and fluffy bread with hints of rice wine flavoring, as well as the latest viral sensation, Dubai chocolate. Another cross-cultural sweet treat is the Su Jeong Gwa latte w/oat milk, which basically is a Korean horchata.
Jagalchi opened on March 28, 2025 (Friday), and the first Saturday, March 29, 2025 resulted in a 60% visitation increase compared to Saturday, Jan 4, 2025. The hype has died down a bit, but overall traffic visitation levels are averaging at least 30% higher on Saturdays compared to pre-opening.
Whereas Serramonte Center was facing declining year-over-year visit trends in the first quarter of the year, the opening of Jagachi has provided a jolt of excitement for the shopping center, putting it into positive year-over-year traffic for the last month.
An additional benefit for Serramonte Center is that Jagachi is attracting a higher proportion of wealthy segments, such as Educated Urbanites and Ultra Wealthy Families, which could potentially result in additional cross-shopping among patrons with more disposable income.
In closing, as shopping centers experiment with new tenants for anchor closures for department stores, opportunity awaits with new brands and concepts such as experiential food halls and grocery stores.
For more data-driven retail and dining insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
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Indoor malls and open-air centers have posted consistent YoY visit growth, outlet declines have been modest, and early 2026 data shows renewed momentum across all three formats.
Growth in short visits and extended stays – alongside declines in mid-length trips – shows that consumers are gravitating toward trips with a clear purpose, favoring either efficiency or immersion.
Rising dwell times and strong engagement from younger, contemporary households position indoor malls as leading destinations for longer, experience-driven trips.
A higher share of short, weekday visits – along with strong appeal among affluent families – underscores their role as convenient, essential retail hubs.
As off-price and online alternatives erode their treasure-hunt advantage and long-distance visitation softens, outlets face a strategic choice between deepening local relevance and reinvesting in destination appeal.
The malls that thrive will be those that intentionally optimize for convenience, experience, or a disciplined integration of both.
Despite economic headwinds, intensifying e-commerce competition, and fragile consumer confidence, shopping centers continue to defy the “dead mall” narrative – reinventing themselves and, in many cases, thriving.
What can location analytics tell us about the state of the mall in 2026? Which trends and audiences are driving their performance – and how can operators and retailers best capitalize on the opportunities within the category?
Over the past two years, both indoor malls and open-air shopping centers have posted consistent year-over-year (YoY) traffic growth. And while outlet malls experienced slight declines, the pullback was modest – signaling a period of stability rather than erosion.
Early 2026 data also points to continued momentum, with all three mall formats recording mid-single-digit YoY traffic gains in the first two months of the year. Although it’s still early days – and YoY comparisons in 2026 were boosted by an additional Saturday – the positive start suggests that the industry is entering the year on a solid footing.
With e-commerce always within reach, hybrid work anchoring more consumers at home, and ongoing economic uncertainty influencing spending decisions, trips to physical stores are becoming more intentional. Shopping center visit data reflects this shift as well, with growth in both quick convenience visits and extended experiential outings – alongside a decline in mid-length trips.
In 2025, quick trips (under 30 minutes) increased across all formats, underscoring malls’ growing role as convenient, high-utility destinations for picking up an online order, grabbing a quick bite, or making a targeted purchase. At the same time, extended visits of more than 75 minutes increased at indoor malls and open-air centers, reflecting sustained appetite for immersive, experiential outings.
Meanwhile, mid-length visits (between 30 and 75 minutes) lagged across formats – falling indoor malls and outlet malls and remaining flat at open-air centers – suggesting shoppers are losing patience with undifferentiated trips that lack a clear purpose.
Still, although short visits increased year over year across all mall types, and long visits increased for both indoor malls and open-air centers, the distribution of dwell time varies by format. Short visits make up a larger share of traffic at open-air shopping centers, for example, while longer visits account for a greater share at indoor malls. This divergence underscores the need for format-specific strategies, with operators clearly defining the core shoppers and missions they are best suited to serve and aligning tenant mix, amenities, and marketing accordingly.
Indoor malls, for instance, have increasingly positioned themselves as experiential hubs – particularly for younger consumers. Recent survey data shows that 57% of shoppers aged 18 to 34 report visiting a mall frequently or often, and they are more likely than older cohorts to arrive without a specific purchase in mind.
Foot traffic patterns reinforce this experiential appeal. In 2025, 37.6% of indoor mall visits lasted more than 75 minutes, compared to 33.4% for open-air centers and 34.6% for outlets. Indoor malls also captured the largest share of visits from the young-skewing “contemporary households” segment – singles, non-family households, and young couples without children – indicating strong resonance with younger audiences.
As indoor malls expand their experiential offerings, visit durations are rising even further – even as they hold steady or even slightly decline at other formats. For operators, this shift highlights a significant opportunity for indoor malls to deepen their role as climate-controlled third places. And for brands, it means high-impact access to Gen Z consumers in discovery mode – top-of-funnel engagement that is increasingly difficult and expensive to replicate through digital channels alone.
If indoor malls excel at capturing extended, social visits, open-air centers are finding success through convenience. In 2025, open-air centers had the highest shares of both weekday visits (64.0%) and short, sub-30 minutes (36.8%) among the three formats. Grocery anchors, superstores, and essential-service tenants like gyms – more common at open-air centers than at other formats – help drive steady, non-discretionary traffic.
Demographically, open-air centers drew the highest share of affluent families, a key demographic for daily errands. This alignment with higher-income households, combined with weekday consistency, positions open-air centers as reliable errand hubs embedded in community life.
Outlet malls, for their part, have historically differentiated themselves by offering something shoppers couldn’t find elsewhere: an experiential treasure hunt featuring brand-name merchandise at compelling prices. But the decline in long visits shown above suggests that this positioning may be coming under pressure – likely from the rise of off-price and discount chains as well as other low-cost, convenient treasure-hunt alternatives like thrift stores. When shoppers can score attractive deals online or browse for bargains at a nearby T.J. Maxx or Ollie’s Bargain Outlet, the incentive to dedicate time and travel to an outlet trip may no longer feel as compelling – especially for outlet malls’ core audience, which includes meaningful contingents of middle and lower-income consumers with families.
And data points to a subtle but steady erosion in the share of visitors willing to go the extra mile to visit outlet malls. Since 2023, the share of outlet visits from consumers traveling more than 30 miles has slipped from 33.1% to 31.8%, even as long-distance visits to other mall formats have remained relatively stable. This softening of destination demand may be contributing to outlets’ recent traffic lags.
Still, despite these lags in foot traffic, major outlet companies continue to see YoY increases in same-center tenant sales per square foot. The format’s strong visit start to 2026 also suggests that outlets still have significant draw – and that with the right strategy, they could reinvigorate their traffic trends.
One option is for outlet malls to lean further into their immediate trade areas: Nearly 20% of visits to outlets already originate within five miles – a share that edged up from 19.4% in 2023 to 19.9% in 2025. These closer shoppers may be largely responsible for the segment’s rise in short visits, pointing to an opportunity to further augment BOPIS offerings and select essential-use tenants.
Another option is to strengthen outlets’ destination appeal with distinctive retail, dining, and experiential offerings that resonate with value-oriented, larger-household shoppers. But whether they focus on convenience or on justifying the journey – or attempt to balance both – success will depend on identifying who their shoppers are and which missions they are best positioned to own.
As in other areas of retail, shopping center success increasingly depends on strategic clarity. The malls that thrive will be those that clearly define their role in their customers’ lives and execute against it with intention – whether by decisively optimizing for efficiency, fully investing in experience, or thoughtfully integrating both.
Commercial real estate in 2026 is characterized by differentiated performance across markets and asset types. Office recovery trajectories vary meaningfully by metro, retail performance reflects format-specific resilience, and domestic migration patterns continue to influence long-term demand fundamentals.
Many higher-income metros continue to trail 2019 benchmarks but drive the strongest Year-over-year gains, signaling a potential inflection in office utilization trends.
• Sunbelt markets along with New York, NY are closest to pre-pandemic office visit levels, while many coastal gateway and tech-heavy markets trail 2019 benchmarks.
• Many of the metros still furthest below pre-pandemic levels are now posting the strongest year-over-year gains.
• Leasing velocity may accelerate in coastal markets – particularly in high-quality assets – even if full recovery remains distant. The expansion of AI-driven firms and innovation-focused employers could support incremental demand in these ecosystems, reinforcing a bifurcation between top-tier buildings and the broader office inventory.
• Higher-income metros such as San Francisco show deeper structural gaps vs 2019, perhaps due to their higher concentration of hybrid-eligible workers – yet those same metros are driving the strongest YoY recovery in 2025.
• Accelerating growth in 2025 suggests that shifting employer policies, workplace enhancements, or broader labor dynamics may be beginning to drive increased in-office activity.
• Office performance in higher-income markets will increasingly depend on workplace quality and policy alignment. Assets that support premium amenities, modern design, and tenants implementing clear in-office expectations are likely to influence sustained office visits and leasing velocity in these metros.
Retail traffic is broadly improving across states, though performance varies by region and format.
• Retail traffic growth is broad-based, with the majority of states showing year-over-year gains in shopping center traffic in 2025.
• Still, even as many states are posting gains, pockets of softer performance remain – specifically in parts of the Southeast and Midwest.
• Broad-based traffic gains indicate consumer demand is more durable than anticipated. In growth states, operators can shift from defensive stabilization to capturing upside – pushing rents, upgrading tenant quality, and accelerating leasing while momentum holds. In softer markets, the focus should remain on protecting traffic through strong anchors and necessity-driven tenancy.
• Convenience-oriented formats are leading traffic growth, with strip/convenience centers materially outperforming all other shopping center types, and neighborhood and community centers also posting gains. This reinforces the strength of proximity-driven, daily-needs retail.
• Destination retail formats, including regional malls and factory outlets, continue to lag, while super-regional malls were essentially flat. Larger-format, discretionary-driven centers are not capturing the same momentum as convenience-based formats.
• The data suggests that consumer behavior continues to favor convenience, frequency, and necessity over destination-based shopping. Operators should lean into service-oriented and daily-needs tenancy in strip and neighborhood formats, while mall operators may need to further reposition assets toward experiential, mixed-use, or non-retail uses to stabilize traffic.
Domestic migration continues to reshape state-level demand, with gains clustering in select growth corridors.
• Domestic migration drove population gains in parts of the Southeast and Northern Plains, while several Western and Northeastern states show flat or negative migration.
• Some previously strong in-migration states in the South and West, including Texas and Utah, are showing softer movement, while other established migration leaders such as Florida and the Carolinas continue to attract net inbound residents.
• Migration flows are shifting relative to prior years. Operators should temper growth assumptions in states where inflows are slowing and prioritize markets where inbound demand remains strong.
• Florida dominates metro-level migration growth, with eight of the top ten U.S. metros for net domestic migration are in Florida.
• The markets with the strongest domestic migration-driven population gains are not major gateway cities but smaller, often retirement- or lifestyle-oriented metros, suggesting that migration-driven demand is increasingly flowing to secondary markets.
• CRE operators should prioritize expansion, leasing, and site selection in high-growth secondary metros where population inflows can directly translate into retail spending, housing absorption, and service demand.
1. Expanded grocery supply is increasing overall category engagement. New locations and deeper food assortments across formats are bringing shoppers into the category more often, rather than fragmenting demand.
2. Grocery visit growth is being driven by low- and middle-income households. Elevated food costs are leading to more frequent, budget-conscious trips, reinforcing grocery’s role as a non-discretionary category.
3. Short, frequent trips are a major driver of brick-and-mortar traffic growth. Fill-in shopping, deal-seeking, and omnichannel behaviors are pushing visit frequency higher, even as trip duration declines.
4. Scale is accelerating consolidation among large grocery chains. Larger retailers are using their size to invest in value, assortment, private label, and execution, allowing them to capture longer and more engaged shopping trips.
5. Both large and small grocers have viable paths to growth. Large chains are winning by competing for the full grocery list, while smaller banners can grow by specializing, owning specific missions, or offering compelling value that earns them a place in shoppers’ routines.
While much of the retail conversation going into 2026 focused on discretionary spending pressure, digital substitution, and higher-income consumers as the primary drivers of growth, grocery foot traffic tells a different story.
Rather than being diluted by new formats or eroded by e-commerce, brick-and-mortar grocery engagement is expanding. Visits are rising even as grocery supply spreads across wholesale clubs, discount and dollar stores, and mass merchants. At the same time, growth is being powered not by affluent trade areas, but by low- and middle-income households navigating higher food costs through more frequent, targeted trips. Shoppers are showing up more often and increasingly splitting their trips across retailers based on value, availability, and mission – pushing grocers to compete for portions of the grocery list instead of the full weekly basket.
The data also suggests that the largest grocery chains are capturing a disproportionate share of rising grocery demand – but the multi-trip nature of grocery shopping in 2026 means that smaller banners can still drive traffic growth. By strengthening their value proposition, specializing in specific products, or owning specific shopping missions, these smaller chains can complement, rather than compete with, larger one-stop destinations.
Ultimately, AI-based location analytics point to a clear set of grocery growth drivers in 2026: expanded supply that increases overall engagement, more frequent and mission-driven trips, and continued traffic concentration among large chains alongside new opportunities for smaller banners.
One driver of grocery growth in recent years is simply the expansion of grocery supply across multiple retail formats. Wholesale clubs are constantly opening new locations and discount and dollar stores are investing more heavily in their food selection, giving consumers a wider choice of where to shop for groceries. And rather than fragmenting demand, this broader availability appears to have increased overall grocery engagement – benefiting both dedicated grocery stores and grocery-adjacent channels.
Grocery stores continue to capture nearly half of all visits across grocery stores, wholesale clubs, discount and dollar stores, and mass merchants. That share has remained remarkably stable thanks to consistent year-over-year traffic growth – so even as grocery supply increases across categories, dedicated grocery stores remain the primary destination for food shopping.
Meanwhile, mass merchants have seen a decline in relative visit share as expanding grocery assortments at discount and dollar stores and the growing store fleets of wholesale clubs give consumers more alternatives for one-stop shopping.
While much of the broader retail conversation heading into 2026 centers on higher-income consumers carrying growth, the trend looks different in the grocery space. Recent visit trends show that grocery growth has increasingly shifted toward lower- and middle-income trade areas, underscoring the distinct dynamics of non-discretionary retail.
For lower- and middle-income shoppers, elevated food costs appear to be translating into more frequent grocery trips as consumers manage budgets through smaller baskets, deal-seeking, and shopping across retailers. In contrast, higher-income households – often cited as a key growth engine for discretionary retail – are contributing less to grocery visit growth, likely reflecting more stable shopping patterns or a greater ability to consolidate trips or shift spend online.
This means that, in 2026, grocery growth is not being propped up by high-income consumers. Instead, it is being fueled by necessity-driven shopping behavior in lower- and middle-income communities – reinforcing grocery’s role as an essential category and suggesting that similar dynamics may be at play across other non-discretionary retail segments.
Another factor driving grocery growth is the rise in short grocery visits in recent years. Between 2022 and 2025, the biggest year-over-year visit gains in the grocery space went to visits under 30 minutes, with sub-15 minute visits seeing particularly big boosts. As of 2025, visits under 15 minutes made up over 40% of grocery visits nationwide – up from 37.9% of visits in 2022.
This shift toward shorter visits – especially those under 15 minutes – is driven in part by the continued expansion of omnichannel grocery shopping, as many consumers complete larger stock-up orders online and rely on in-store trips for order collection or quick, fill-in needs. At the same time, the rise in short visits paired with consistent YoY growth in grocery traffic points to additional, behavior-driven forces at play – consumers' growing willingness to shop around at different grocery stores in search of the best deal or just-right product.
Value-conscious shoppers – particularly consumers from low- and middle-income households, which have driven much of recent grocery growth – seem to be increasingly shopping across multiple retailers to secure the best prices. This behavior often involves making targeted trips to different stores in search of the strongest deals, a pattern that is contributing to the rise in shorter, more frequent grocery visits. At the same time, other grocery shoppers are making quick trips to pick up a single ingredient or specialty item – perhaps reflecting the increasingly sophisticated home cooks and social media-driven ingredient crazes. In both these cases, speed is secondary to getting the best value or the right product.
So while some shorter visits reflect a growing emphasis on efficiency – as shoppers use in-store trips to complement primarily online grocery shopping – others appear driven by a preference for value or product selection over speed. Despite their differences, all of these behaviors have one thing in common – they're all contributing to continued growth in brick-and-mortar grocery visits. Grocers who invest in providing efficient in-store experiences are particularly well-positioned to benefit from these trends.
As early as 2022, the top 15 most-visited grocery chains already accounted for roughly half of all grocery visits nationwide. And by outpacing the industry average in terms of visit growth, these chains have continued to capture a growing share of grocery foot traffic.
This widening gap suggests that scale is increasingly enabling grocers to reinvest in the factors that attract and retain shoppers. Larger chains are better positioned to invest in broader and more differentiated product selection, stronger private-label programs that deliver quality at accessible price points, competitive pricing, and operational excellence across stores and omnichannel touchpoints. These capabilities allow top chains to serve a wide range of shopping missions – from quick, convenience-driven trips to more intentional visits in search of the right product or ingredient.
Consolidation at the top of the grocery category is reinforcing a virtuous cycle: scale enables better value, selection, and experience, which in turn draws more shoppers into stores and supports continued grocery traffic growth.
In 2025, the top 15 most-visited grocery chains accounted for a disproportionate share of visits lasting 15 minutes or more, while smaller grocers captured a larger share of the shortest trips. As shown above, larger grocery chains, which tend to attract longer visits, grew faster than the industry overall – but short visits, which skew more heavily toward smaller chains, accounted for a greater share of total traffic growth. Together, these patterns show that both long, destination trips and short, targeted visits are driving grocery traffic growth and creating viable paths forward for retailers of all sizes.
Larger chains are more likely to serve as destinations for fuller shopping missions, competing for the entire grocery list – or a significant share of it. But smaller banners can grow too by competing for more short visits. By specializing in a specific product category, owning a clearly defined shopping mission, or delivering a compelling value proposition, smaller grocers can earn a place in shoppers’ routines and become a deliberate stop within a broader grocery journey.
As grocery moves deeper into 2026, growth is being driven by the cumulative effect of how consumers are navigating food shopping today. Expanded supply has increased overall engagement, higher food costs are driving more frequent and targeted trips, and shoppers are increasingly willing to split their grocery list across retailers based on value, availability, and mission.
Looking ahead, this suggests that grocery growth will remain resilient, but unevenly distributed. Retailers that clearly understand which trips they are best positioned to win – and invest accordingly – will be best placed to capture that growth. Large chains are likely to continue benefiting from scale, consolidation, and their ability to serve full shopping missions, while smaller banners can grow by earning a defined role within shoppers’ broader grocery journeys. In 2026, success in grocery will be less about winning every trip and more about consistently winning the right ones.
