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When I first started Omni Talk back in 2017, I used to borrow liberally from the great Peter King and his Monday Morning Quarterback Series. In fact, one of the first articles I ever wrote – 10 Things I Think I Think I Love and Don’t Love about Walmart Right Now – was an outright homage to the man.
The double use of “I Think” is unparalleled. It is pure genius. How the man came up with it, I will never know. It is the perfect mix of WTF and stop you in your tracks syntax because this article looks like it is going to be interesting.
All of which is why I am going back to my roots and imitating “The King” once again for my new column called, All The Things I Think I Think About Retail Over The Last Quarter.
I am sure Mr. King never envisioned that his wise words about the gridiron every Monday morning would still inspire a now pushing-50 retail pundit to wax poetically about the state of retail but here I am, 8 years later, doing just that.
So away we go!
Ashley Buchanan, the former Michaels CEO, is the right man for the job at Kohl’s. Buchanan did a wonderful job instilling an omnichannel foundation at Michaels and has a background rooted in innovation and digital from previous stints at Walmart and Sam’s Club. In fact, I said on a recent podcast that Target would have been wise to look at him to succeed Brian Cornell.
But I do not envy Buchanan.
Not. One. Bit.
Turning Kohl’s around is going to be tough. Buchanan inherits 12 consecutive quarters of comparable sales declines, alongside store traffic trends that read like the opening of a John Carpenter movie.
In its most recent quarter, comparable sales at Kohl’s were a negative 6.7%, and Kohl’s also said that it expects 2025 revenue to fall in the range of 5% to 7%. Frightening indeed. Let’s just hope Buchanan doesn’t already feel like Jamie Lee Curtis trapped in a closet trying to fight her way out with coat hangers.
It is no wonder that Buchanan has already instituted page one of every new CEO’s playbook – i.e. laying off 10% of your corporate workforce – because, lord knows, he is going to need the wiggle room (and as many coat hangers as he can get his hands on).
Costco shareholders overwhelmingly (approximately 98% of them) voted down a measure in late January that urged Costco to assess the risk associated with its DEI practices. Costco’s leadership came out strongly against the measure, arguing that its “commitment to an enterprise rooted in respect and inclusion is appropriate and necessary."
Or said another way, Costco held to a position that many others, including Walmart, Target, and Tractor Supply Company, have not.
In my retail experience, the general impact of taking a strong position on something like this publicly is felt near the beginning of such an announcement and then the impact gradually settles over time.
If that were the case, Costco would have felt the impact in February, but Costco’s recently announced results indicate otherwise.
In its most recent quarter, which ended on January 31, 2025, Costco’s U.S. comparable sales increased 8.7% excluding impacts from gas deflation, while in February, its comparable sales held strong at 8.6%, also excluding any impacts from gas.
I’m no mathematician but that is hardly a dip.
Costco is still experiencing year-over-year traffic patterns, particularly into February (more on that later), of which other retailers can only dream; its U.S. membership renewal rate sits right around 93%; and its Kirkland signature brand appears to be a great hedge against inflation in that it, according to Costco CFO Gary Millerchip, “continues to grow at a faster pace than our business as a whole.”
The Costco executive team also did not mention word one of any DEI impact on its financial results within its last earnings call, something of which Costco no doubt would be conscious of given the current legal and political climate.
No, for all intents and purposes, at least initially, Costco appears to be holding strong to its principles and doing just fine.
Under CEO Jack Sinclair, Sprouts has done a masterful job rightsizing its store prototype, bringing differentiation back to its assortment, and playing on the post-pandemic trend of consumers having a willingness to make that extra trip, as long as it is convenient for them (see below).
Sprouts also has a load of dry powder in its keg. For example, Sprouts still does not have a loyalty program (something it plans to launch in Q3 of this year) and only operates in 24 states.
Or, put mildly, that right sized prototype that has been doing so well? The one driving an 11.5% comp in Sprouts’ most recent quarter?
It still has a lot more room to grow.
Macy’s new CEO Tony Spring loves to talk about the results Macy’s is seeing out of its “First 50” locations, i.e. the 50 locations Macy’s has designated to trial new innovations to improve its overall business. Examples of these innovations include things like: enhanced staffing in certain areas of the stores, modernized visual presentations, enhanced merchandising, or aka all the garden variety things anyone who has been around retail longer than three minutes would expect to see within a test of this kind.
In January, Macy’s reported that its First 50 stores delivered a +1.9% sales comp in Q3 2024, outpacing other Macy's stores by 4.1%, and that it planned to expand its First 50 initiative to another 75 stores over the course of 2025.
All sounds great, right?
Not to me it doesn’t.
First off, in its most recent quarter (Q4 2024), the spread between the First 50 stores and the rest of the Macy’s chain appears to have slipped. Executives reported a 1.2% comp in the First 50 stores against a 0.9% comp decline in its Macy’s nameplate stores. In isolation, this performance might look good on paper, but looking at it against the trend line, one could argue that the First 50 stores performed relatively worse in Q4 than the rest of the chain. The chain’s performance picked up, while the First 50’s fell off.
Second, and perhaps more importantly, I have been around retail long enough to know that one should take the results of tests like these with a fine grain of salt. Many factors can impact the performance of 50 stores, particularly when a new CEO has just taken the helm. The least of which is that everyone in the entire Macy’s organization knows the importance of these stores and, therefore, is likely extra committed to making sure they succeed. As the focus wears off, tests like these usually revert back to the mean.
And, the mean, which looks somewhere in the range of just shy of a -0.9% (at best) to a -6.0% comp (at worst) across the last two quarters, won’t keep the Macy’s Day parade balloons afloat come Thanksgiving time.
Fortunately, Bloomingdale’s is not Macy’s and vice versa. I say that because Bloomingdale’s, unlike Macy’s, could be onto something with its small format strategy.
According to Macy’s website, Bloomingdale’s has 33 full-sized U.S. store locations compared to Macy’s 479.
That is quite the delta.
So much so, that one has to wonder if, similar to Sprouts above, small format Bloomie’s stores throughout the country (of which there are three currently in the U.S.) could become a significant growth vehicle for Bloomingdale’s.
I am on record as saying that when there are already 479 larger-sized Macy’s stores, the last thing anyone needs is a smaller Macy’s. That same logic, however, cannot be applied to Bloomingdale’s because only 33 Bloomingdale’s stores actually exist. The majority of the country has no idea what a Bloomingdale’s experience is like, let alone how to compare shopping at a bigger one versus a smaller one. Consumers generally prefer shopping at a store with a greater selection unless, of course, their next best option is no selection at all.
The data from the three smaller format Bloomie’s stores appears to prove this logic out (see below):
Year-over-year visit growth to Boomie’s stores across six of the last nine quarters has outpaced the general department store industry by a wide margin.
Granted, it is still only three stores, but the logic of the strategy is sound, provided Macy’s can operate these smaller Bloomie’s stores profitably (which is still a big unknown – and an issue that also plays into the Macy’s First 50 stores outlined above).
Target, my alma mater, so to speak, has been stuck in neutral since even before the pandemic began.
I don’t know when or why it happened but, at some point, Target became myopic in its strategy, failing to look beyond its vaunted “owned brands” for growth. While others, like Walmart, were evolving with the times, Target stood flat footed and failed to adapt its Expect More, Pay Less brand promise to the needs of its 21st century, digital-first consumer.
Make no mistake: Target’s former beachheads are now all under siege.
Its higher income demographic shoppers are moving to Walmart because of Walmart’s much stronger competitive positioning of Walmart+; fast fashion players like Shein and Temu are stealing share in apparel; the club channel is more formidable than ever; and Wayfair (more on that in a minute) is now the go-to online source for home furnishings. Taken together, it all means less trips into a Target store over the long-term.
A lot less trips.
But that is just the digital impact. Merchandising execution and in-stocks continue to plague the retailer as well, with many people both in and outside of the organization asking if it isn’t time for Target to return to office, similar to Walmart, Amazon and many others before them.
Something is causing the temperature of Target’s porridge to feel just not quite right (see traffic patterns below). Could it be that the goldilocks shine of CEO Brian Cornell’s strategy to wait by the wayside as other retailers started going out of business is starting to wear off?
Cornell, himself, in Target’s most recent earnings call, lauded the $30 billion of additional revenue Target has gained since 2019, but how much of that was pure inflation and inertia given the bankruptcies of Toys R Us, Bed Bath & Beyond, Party City, and many, many more?
A new alarming feature is what appears to be a precipitous decline in February, corroborated by what Target CFO Brian Lee called “soft” topline performance for the month in the aforementioned earnings call.
Target did not mention its recent DEI rollback as a possible rationale for its slow February, citing instead things like “extreme cold” and “flood and fires,” but the prospect of a 40-day boycott in response to the rollback sure as heck won’t make things any easier.
Target has its work cut out for it, to say the least. Its new $15 billion growth plan is potentially a step in the right direction. However, I worry that, when one looks under the covers of that plan, all he or she will find is the same owned brand gobbledygook that Target has espoused ever since Cornell took over.
And that owned brand well, in relation to the competitive issues outlined above, is done and dried up.
Wayfair announced in January 2025 that it was planning to exit Germany. According to Retail Dive, Wayfair said that it “plans to reinvest cost savings from backing out of Germany into expanding its physical retail footprint.”
After many (what some might call, or at least I would) failed attempts at smaller physical store concepts, Wayfair opened a 150,000 square foot mega store just outside of Chicago. From the looks of the data below, this larger store concept, one of which I have also been a big fan of for sometime now, appears to be showing encouraging signs.
Moreover, the home furnishings industry also appears to be on a bit of a rebound. Traffic to home furnishings players appears to be picking up (see below) and Home Depot just posted its first positive comp quarter after eight consecutive quarterly declines.
Wayfair’s CEO Niraj Shah is as shrewd as they come, and he may just be betting on stores right as a big tailwind is ready to hit his back.
Is it a coincidence then that Wayfair just announced the launch of its second large format store in Atlanta?
I think I think not.
New CEO Brian Niccol took the helm in September of last year and wasted no time in establishing his priorities. Put simply, Niccol wanted to reignite the “third place” atmosphere of Starbucks and ensure that all in-store customers get served their orders in under four minutes or less.
Early results look promising.
While Starbucks’ same-store sales did decline by 4% during the last quarter, this figure still beat Wall Street estimates, which, according to CNBC, had predicted a 5.5% drop.
Traffic data also supports Niccol’s moves (see below).
Lord knows, it’s early here, too, and the February traffic decline is definitely something to watch. But, given that Niccol has only been in his role since September, these results at least have the aroma of an early turnaround.
Unless of course, you are a regular Frappaccino drinker – because then you are probably pissed.
For the past six years, Sam’s Club has sat atop my list as the most innovative retailer in America not named Amazon. It is an award well-deserved for a number of reasons.
First, Sam’s Club has been on a winning streak. In its most recent quarter, Sam’s Club delivered a 6.8% sales comp, excluding fuel.
Second, Sam’s Club has seen explosive growth in digital both online and in-store. E-commerce sales were up over 24% in the last quarter, and the use of its scan and go shopping app hit an all-time high during the same period. This last statistic might not sound like much, but the Sam’s Club executives I have interviewed on multiple occasions have all told me that 1 in 3 shoppers regularly use their scan and go app.
1 in 3!
I am going to go out on a limb here but my guess is that Costco’s mobile app usage is nowhere near that high, particularly in-store.
Third, Sam’s Club is also winning with young people. Sam's Club has reported record highs in membership numbers and renewal rates, with particularly strong growth among Gen Z (63% over two years) and millennials (14% over two years).
The combination of a digital-first shopping experience and a growing percentage of younger people shopping in its stores means that Sam’s Club is positioned to create the most one-to-one personalized shopping experience out there.
Retail media anyone?
I say that in jest but the profit-enhancing effects of retail media are real (see Walmart), and Sam’s Club has created a visual menu board to serve up advertisements to one-third of its shoppers right as they are standing at the shelf. Can Costco or anyone else for that matter do that?
Not nearly to the same degree.
Concluding Thoughts
There you have it. All the things I think I think about retail over the last quarter, and in no particular order of importance.
So, I ask you in closing – what do you think of what I think?
McDonald's and Chipotle, two of the most significant players in the quick-service and fast-casual dining sectors, are maintaining a promising trajectory despite the current economic uncertainty. With the first quarter of 2025 concluded, we examined their recent visit patterns and explored some of the strategies these two dining giants are employing to drive visits.
Although the visit gap to McDonald’s widened slightly – from -1.7% year-over-year (YoY) in Q4 2024 to -2.6% in Q1 2025 – traffic to the chain still remains close to last year's levels, suggesting that its value proposition continues to resonate strongly with its customer base even during times of economic uncertainty.
Meanwhile, Chipotle continues to see YoY visit growth, with YoY foot traffic to the chain rising by 4.5% in Q1 2025.
Some of the company’s strength may be attributed to its strategic fleet expansions, particularly in smaller markets. Moving forward, Chipotle has set its sights on opening roughly 350 new locations throughout 2025, with a focus on drive-through – another major growth driver for the chain.
A Minecraft Movie debuted on April 3rd, 2025, and McDonald’s, perhaps recalling the success of its Adult Happy Meal promotion, participated in the movie rollout by offering a Minecraft Movie special. The meal, which includes Minecraft-themed collectibles, is available for a limited time, creating a sense of urgency for diners – something that McDonald’s has used in the past to great success.
The impact of the special was already evident in the first week following the release. Visits to McDonald’s on Tuesday, April 1st – when the special launched – were 12.2% higher than the year-to-date (YTD) average Tuesday visit count for 2025. And the launch provides a continued boost to the chain, with visits on the following two Tuesdays elevated by 9.5% and 7.4%, respectively, relative to the YTD Tuesday visit average.
Chipotle, too, has leveraged limited-time offers and specials to great success, with chicken-focused promotions like 2024’s Chicken al Pastor and, more recently, the introduction of a Honey Chicken special driving visits to the chain.
Visits to Chipotle jumped by 6.3% above the YTD weekly visit average during the week of March 10th, 2025, when the special launched, and remained elevated through the rest of the month. While visit numbers had been trending slightly upward towards the end of February, the launch of the Honey Chicken special seems to have driven a sustained visit surge. Burrito Day provided another visit boost to the chain, with Thursday visits on April 3rd – the day of the launch – elevated by 13.0% relative to the YTD Thursday visit average.
McDonald’s and Chipotle are maintaining their position in a challenging market, driving visits through carefully considered expansion, specials, and promotions.
Will these visits continue to hold pace as Q2 gets underway?
Visit Placer.ai for the latest data-driven dining insights.
Los Angeles is famous for its film and music industry, but the city also boasts several world-class museums that educate and entertain local visitors and tourists alike. We dove into the data for several of LA’s top museums in order to examine the visitation patterns and demographics of museum goers in the City of Angels.
Analyzing monthly visits to the top LA museums over the past 12 months reveals that although most receive a visit boost in the spring and summer, each institution has a unique seasonal visit pattern.
The California Science Center and La Brea Tar Pits and Museum received the largest July visit surges, likely due to heavy traffic from young families on vacation. Meanwhile, The Petersen Automotive Museum received the largest December visit spike, perhaps due to a boost from private holiday events. And The Museum of Contemporary Art appears to have maintained a steady flow of visitors – experiencing a relatively muted summer uptick, but relatively robust visits in the fall.
Diving further into the data reveals that LA museums are particularly popular with hyper-local visitors and with out-of-towners: Every museum analyzed received large shares of visitors from less than 30 and/or from more than 250 miles away, with fewer visitors coming from 30-250 miles.
The California Science Center received the greatest share of visitors residing less than 30 miles (60.7%) from the museum, perhaps due to its popularity with educational groups and its location in bustling Exposition Park.
Griffith Observatory, with views of the Hollywood sign and Los Angeles's urban landscape, was highly popular with out-of-town visitors – 48.7% of guests resided at least 250 miles away. And as a unique active fossil excavation site, La Brea Tar Pits and Museum was also favored by out-of-town visitors (42.9% of guests came from 250+ miles away).
The relatively high shares of out-of-town visitors at most LA museums analyzed highlights the role that tourists play in supporting LA’s cultural institutions. And diving into the median HHI in the museums’ captured market reveals that these out-of-towners may represent a particularly desirable audience.
In general, the museums analyzed tend to attract a relatively wealthy audience. In 2024, the median household income (HHI) in all the analyzed museums’ captured market trade areas was higher than the median HHI nationwide ($79.6K/year) – perhaps due to California’s relatively high median HHI of $99.3K/year. Most museums also drove traffic from regions with a higher median HHI than the state benchmark – likely due to the relative affluence of the Los Angeles area. The Getty and The Museum of Contemporary Art’s captured trade areas had the highest median HHIs, at $107.2K/year and $103.7K/year, respectively.
But when analyzing only out-of-town visitors (who traveled 250 miles or more), the median HHIs of the captured trade areas increased – indicating that out-of-town museum guests were more affluent than local ones. This suggests that tickets to special exhibitions could be set at higher price points during peak seasons when more out-of-town guests are anticipated.
Though there are similarities between the behavior and demographics of visitors to LA’s museums, they each experience somewhat distinct seasonal visit patterns and attract diverse audiences. With the busiest museum season ramping up, cultural institutions stand to gain from understanding the changing characteristics of their guests.
For more insights, visit Placer.ai.
Marketers, retailers, and category managers spend a lot of time trying to analyze the retail preferences of Gen Z shoppers. Meanwhile, Gen X and Baby Boomers are seldom considered, even though almost 40% of American adults are aged 55 or older. We analyzed the latest data to better understand these frequently overlooked consumer segments.
Although the overwhelming majority of older Americans spend several hours a day online and over half of American seniors own a smartphone, the data indicates many consumers aged 55+ are still more comfortable shopping in-store.
Comparing the age distribution among adult visitors to Walmart’s website with the age distribution in Walmart’s offline trade area shows that older consumers (aged 55+) are overrepresented in the retailer’s offline trade area relative to its online visitor base.
Offline shopping offers a range of benefits, from personalized service to the ability to physically examine products and the convenience of walking out with the purchased items. Retailers looking to increase their penetration with older audience segments might consider investing in brick-and-mortar stores that give older consumers the shopping experience that best fits their needs.
For retailers looking to reach Gen X and Baby Boomers, merely building brick-and-mortar channels may not be enough – brands should also ensure that the in-store experience is optimized for older audiences. And the first step may be ensuring that staffing and opening hours are adapted to the shopping habits of older Americans.
Analyzing the hourly visit distribution at L.L. Bean and Ocean State Job Lot – two chains particularly popular with a variety of older audiences – suggests that Gen X and Baby Boomer shoppers may prefer visiting stores earlier in the day: Visits between the hours of 9 AM and 2 PM accounted for a much larger share of visits to both chains when compared to visitation behavior for the wider category. So retailers seeking to attract Gen X and Baby Boomers may consider earlier opening hours and robust staffing during the late morning and early afternoon.
At the same time, while many older consumers do exhibit some commonalities – such as a preference for offline shopping or for earlier-in-the-day store visits – it is important to remember that older shoppers are not a monolith. Like other age-based market segments, the label of “older consumer” lumps together a variety of customer types from various socioeconomic backgrounds representing a wide array of values and interests. Retailers looking to cater to this demographic should also consider the particular characteristics of their target audience beyond the general attributes common to many older consumers.
The chart below shows the share of various “Boomer” segments (from the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset) in the trade areas of seven apparel retailers popular with older consumers. All these segments – Sunset Boomers, Suburban Boomers, and Budget Boomers – consist of consumers aged 65-74, but their living arrangements and household income levels vary. And as the chart shows, each Boomer segment exhibits unique brand affinities.
Sunset Boomers – the most affluent segment – were significantly overrepresented in the captured markets Talbots, Anthropologie, Vineyard Vines, and Chico’s. Suburban Boomers – middle-class older consumers – were also slightly overrepresented in Talbots, Vineyard Vines, and Chico’s captured market, but were underrepresented for Anthropologie and significantly overrepresented at Boscov’s. And Budget Boomers – older consumers with household incomes of $35K to $50K – were overrepresented in Bealls and Cato’s captured market even though these retailers did not seem particularly popular with the other two Boomer segments.
To effectively target older consumers, retailers should assess how their products and services align with the unique tastes and spending abilities of each Boomer and Gen X sub-segment.
Older consumers make up a significant share of U.S. shoppers, even though this demographic is not always top of mind for marketers and retailers. By embracing the continued importance of physical stores and adapting to the specific shopping behaviors of Baby Boomers and Gen X consumers, retailers can cultivate stronger engagement with these segments. Ultimately, though, success with this audience will hinge on recognizing the heterogeneity of older shoppers and tailoring strategies accordingly.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
After leap year comparison induced year-over-year (YoY) declines in February 2025, foot traffic to the Placer 100 Index for Retail & Dining stabilized in March 2025 to just -0.3% below 2024 levels – an impressive performance considering the severe weather that impacted large parts of the country.
State-level analysis of March 2025 visits to the Placer 100 Index reveals that massive storms indeed contributed significantly to regional foot traffic declines. States that bore the brunt of inclement weather in March 2025 – particularly in the Southeastern and Central United States – appeared to experience the steepest YoY visit gaps.
Despite the extreme climate conditions, some chains managed to plow ahead, enjoying visit growth in March 2025. Once again, Chili’s Grill & Bar held on to the top spot in the Placer 100 Index for YoY visits (22.6%) and visits per location (23.4%) growth, likely due to continued success in the areas of value and virality. Meanwhile, three fitness chains made the top 10 in YoY visits – Crunch Fitness (22.5%), LA Fitness (10.0%), and Planet Fitness (9.7%), at least in part due to continuing expansions of their respective footprints.
Expansion is perhaps only one driving factor behind the success of Crunch Fitness, Planet Fitness, and LA Fitness in March 2025. The beginning of the year is generally busy for fitness chains as many consumers adopt new years’ resolutions to get in shape, even if many abandon their pursuit down the line. But the data suggests that Crunch Fitness, Planet Fitness, and LA Fitness experienced visit growth in March in part due to a sustained increase in visitor frequency.
All three chains saw an increase in the share of visitors visiting 8 or more times in March 2025 compared to 2024, indicating that the chains are driving more traffic from fitness-invested visitors. And these fitness buffs, who attend the gym quite often, are perhaps less likely to give up on their fitness goals during the year, which bodes well for the fitness chains’ chances to sustain members and elevated traffic in the months ahead.
The Placer 100 Index for March 2025 demonstrates the effect of harsh winter conditions on retail and dining visits. Still, the strong performance of several chains highlights the consumer trends and brand strategies that can drive growth.
For more insights anchored in location analytics, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
It’s hard to imagine, but we’ve eclipsed the five year anniversary of the onset of the pandemic lockdowns across the U.S., when the retail industry was transformed overnight. By April 2020, thousands of stores had closed and uncertainty loomed. At the time, it felt like the potential end of physical retail that the industry had been ruminating over for years.
Five years later, the industry looks mostly like it did at the beginning of 2020. Online shopping did not kill physical retail, and although e-commerce adoption has substantially increased since pre-pandemic – fueled by the spike in new online shoppers in 2020 – the vast majority of retail transactions (over 80%) still occur in brick-and-mortar locations.
At the same time, while the retail industry looks similar to itself structurally, there have been numerous changes at the category level. Many large ticket purchases like consumer electronics and home furnishings that experienced a pull forward in demand during the pandemic waned over the past few years. Visits to apparel retailers and department stores looked, for a while, like they would never recover. And as people emerged from their homes or found their way to TikTok, beauty became the in-demand category that spread like wildfire. Grocery shopping went from a mundane chore to a form of consumer escapism in 2020; in many ways, that behavior has stuck for shoppers as they now frequent more grocery chains in their journey.
We’ve also observed some fundamental changes across U.S. consumers; more workers still work from home than before the pandemic, although return to office numbers keep rising. And many city dwellers who migrated during the peak pandemic period still remain in more suburban and rural areas.
So what have the past five years taught us about U.S. shoppers? First, we’ve learned that consumers are much more resilient than we give them credit for as they demonstrated a remarkable ability to both adapt to unprecedented circumstances and return to their former shopping habits once the situation normalized. Second, consumers are very cyclical in their behaviors and interests – five years after the pandemic’s start, many of the categories that suffered are coming back into their own. And, as consumers face different types of economic uncertainty, we should be optimistic that they can weather different types of storms. But perhaps the key lesson from the past five years has been that brick-and-mortar stores serve a distinct purpose to both retailers and shoppers – and that physical commerce is definitively here to stay.
Looking at the Placer 100 Retail and Dining Index reveals that visits to retail and dining locations not only rebounded from the pandemic, but have surpassed pre-pandemic levels. There are a few underlying causes that could have contributed to these changes: store and unit openings, a higher frequency in visits to certain categories, and increased consumer demand.
At the same time, dwell times across the macro retail industry have shifted since the pandemic as consumers are generally spending less time in stores than they did in 2019. There could be a few reasons contributing to this decrease: a higher adoption of e-commerce as a research tool before visiting a store, a higher utilization of BOPIS and curbside offerings, or more frequent visits leading to shorter individual trips but longer overall time in store. Last year (2024) also saw a higher share of weekday visits compared to the pre-pandemic period, where more consumers shopped on the weekend.
From a consumer perspective, as we wrote about recently, higher income households are more important to the retail industry than prior to the pandemic – even though they account for fewer visits overall. Meanwhile, lower income households are visiting retailers more frequently, especially in essential categories, as they look to combat inflationary pressures that exploded since the pandemic.
What did the pandemic reveal about essential retail categories? For many consumers, these segments got them through the peak pandemic time period as discretionary retail locations remained closed. Grocery stores, pharmacies, and superstores provided a sense of normalcy for shoppers as visiting a store became much more than a weekly errand. Today’s shoppers mirror many of those behaviors; they visit these types of retailers more frequently and don’t balk at making an extra trip for that “must-have” item from a specific chain.
Looking at the relative share of visits by category shows that dollar and discount stores gained the most visit share compared to the pre-pandemic trends. These chains have invested heavily in fresh food items and assortment expansion to become more of a destination for shoppers, especially those who are more price sensitive. So while visitation growth to dollar store chains did stagnate in 2024, even as retailers continued to expand store fleets, the leading players in this category have already entrenched themselves deeper into consumers' shopping journey compared to the pre-pandemic period.
Similarly, value based grocers and warehouse clubs have become more frequent stops in consumer daily routines, even if their share of visitation hasn’t risen dramatically. These chains have benefitted from changes in consumer behavior over the past five years: Warehouse clubs were well positioned for consumers who migrated from urban to suburban environments, and value grocery stores such as Aldi and Trader Joe’s became a safe haven for consumers trying to combat inflationary pressures as the country emerged from the pandemic.
The one sector that hasn’t fared as well? The drugstore channel. The increase in visitation during the vaccine roll out period didn’t result in long term sustained traffic, and drugstores with their expansive store fleet have struggled to find their true value proposition as competition from wellness chains (such as GNC & Vitamin Shoppe), beauty retailers, and superstores grew. Drug-based retailers are still working to right size business today, as further constrained shoppers look elsewhere.
Essential retail players have had to contend with ever-evolving consumer needs in the post-pandemic period and continue to play a key role in the return for normalcy. Some sectors have fared better than others, but those that have emerged as winners looked to stay in lock step with their consumers on their journey. Retailers realized that they didn’t have to be the best at everything – experience, convenience, value, and assortment – but they needed to lean into their speciality to be successful.
On the other end of the retail spectrum, discretionary categories have faced headwinds as consumers exited the peak pandemic period. The peak pandemic years (2020 and 2021) were banner years for retail segments that cater to shoppers’ “wants”. But as the need to self-soothe with goods waned and inflationary pressures rose, consumers walked away from many of the retailers who had benefited from their behavioral changes. (The declines in foot traffic in these categories likely also reflected some of the shift to online channels, as most of these retailers were forced to shut their doors during the early days of COVID.)
It’s been a long road to recovery for discretionary businesses, but we began to see some renewed signs of life over the past year. These retailers must remain vigilant in their quest for relevance with shoppers; high levels of uncertainty, debts, and increasing focus on value all still present headwinds for the retail industry – particularly those who focus on satisfying desires instead of needs.
In reviewing the visitation growth since 2022, discretionary retail could be broken into two performance categories: beauty and everything else. As we’ve written previously, the beauty industry was able to ride the wave of post-lockdown consumer behaviors, including the need to replace outdated products that hadn’t been worn while spending more time at home. At the same time, consumers also became more enamored with mass beauty brands, or those sold at drugstores or mass merchants at lower price points. The success of these brands and retailers that harnessed the power of consumer choice, like Ulta Beauty, intersected with a strong consumer desire for value. And although 2024 was a year of reckoning for the beauty industry as the consumer shifts towards other priorities, the category’s strong success during the early post-pandemic period cannot be overstated.
The performance of other discretionary segments has been more mixed. Categories that saw meteoric growth during the pandemic lockdowns – such as home furnishings, home improvement and consumer electronics – failed to sustain momentum. Apparel trends, like the rise of athleisure, had helped drive continued demand to retail chains and department stores even without the need for traditional clothing, and as life got back to normal and these trends faded, retailers saw year-over-year declines in visitation.
But the 2024 data began the slow rebound of some of these categories, particularly in home and apparel. Home furnishings, home improvement, and consumer electronics may continue to see a rebound in 2025 as we enter a new replacement cycle and those who purchased these categories during the pandemic look to refresh their homes and upgrade their technology. Apparel’s rebound can be attributed to a resurgence of national brands as increased use of semaglutide medications and an interest in healthy living drive shoppers to revamp their wardrobes.
The one area of discretionary retail that outperformed its competitors and continues to shine? The off-price channel has had an extraordinary few years of visitation growth since the onset of the pandemic. Off-price retailers have enticed consumers with the perfect blend of value orientation, in-store experience, and immediacy that drive repeat visitation and keep shoppers engaged. The success of off-price retail also underscores the continued importance of physical retailers, despite the initial changes in behavior during the pandemic. This sector of discretionary retail is probably best positioned to handle the potential economic uncertainty of 2025 and beyond.
Overall, the discretionary side of the retail industry has begun to recover from its challenging few years of visitation, but 2025 does pose uncertainty that could impact consumers’ disposable income levels. Retailers that cater to consumers’ “wants” must work even harder to stay on their customers’ radar and entice shoppers to come into physical retail locations instead of shopping online or via social media platforms. As mentioned earlier, high income shoppers are going to become even more valuable to this sector of retail as it tries to maintain momentum.
The retail industry has undergone a tremendous transformation over the past five years. But while so much has evolved, there is still a lot of opportunity for the industry to be more agile in its ability to satisfy consumer demands. Despite the early days of store closures during the pandemic, physical retail not only bounced back, but has flourished. Retailers continue to focus on upgrading store fleets and opening new stores. Stores have moved away from being experiential to trying to just provide a good shopper experience. Retail’s reality is that consumers still face many challenges ahead, especially economic uncertainty. But, the pandemic highlighted the resilience of both retailers and shoppers to support one another, which will hopefully continue into the future of retail.
The holiday shopping season traditionally stretches from Black Friday to New Years Eve: Shoppers looking to snag deals, purchase gifts, or enhance their celebrations drive visit spikes at retailers across the country. And although many consumers expressed concern over high prices impacting their holiday budget, spending in 2024 actually increased compared to 2023, with brick-and-mortar stores playing a key role in last year’s holiday season.
So where were the largest holiday spikes? How did last year’s calendar configuration impact retail traffic? Which segment came out ahead – and how did dining fit into the mix? Most importantly – what can we learn from the 2024 holiday season to prepare for 2025?
The holiday shopping season is the busiest time of the year for many retail categories. Between Black Friday and December 31st 2024, daily visits to brick-and-mortar stores increased 12.7%, on average, compared to the rest of the year.
Department stores led the pack, with visits to the segment 102.1% higher than the pre-holiday season average – likely aided by strong Black Friday performances. Other favorite gifting categories, including beauty & self care (72.7%), hobbies, gifts & crafts (60.9%), recreational & sporting goods (55.5%), clothing (41.8%), and electronics stores (32.7%) also received significant traffic boosts. Shopping centers benefited as well with a 24.8% increase in daily visits over the holiday season. Retailers in these segments can capitalize on their holiday popularity and stand out amidst the crowd by promoting their brand early and ensuring their staffing and inventory can accommodate the season’s traffic increases.
The holidays are also a time for entertainment – and purchasing gifts for hosts – which likely helped drive the 48.4% and 41.7% traffic increases at liquor stores and at furniture & home furnishings retailers, respectively. Superstores and discount & dollar stores – with their selection of affordable giftable products and entertainment essentials – also saw holiday-driven visit bumps of 21.2% and 20.2%, respectively. Retailers may choose to highlight seasonal items and hosting-friendly products to increase these traffic bumps in 2025.
Pet stores & services received a smaller (10.0%) bump than the wider retail average – indicating that, although some shoppers buy gifts for their fur babies, pets may not be at the top of most Americans’ gift lists. And visits to the home improvement segment were essentially on par with the pre-holiday period – indicating that the holidays are not the time for extensive home renovation projects. But home improvement chains looking to get in on the holiday action might consider promoting decorations and smaller giftable items in December.
And despite the grocery frenzy of Turkey Wednesday and Christmas Eve Eve, the Grocery segment received a relatively minor holiday boost of 5.0% – perhaps due to holiday travelers skipping their weekly grocery haul. Grocers who lean into prepared foods or pre-packaged meal kits might get an additional bump.
Although the holidays drive retail visit surges across the country, some regions see a bigger traffic bump than others.
In December 2024, almost all 50 states (with the exception of Wyoming ) received a holiday-driven retail traffic boost ranging from a 3.3% (Montana) to a 16.8% (New Hampshire). On a regional basis, the South received the largest increase: The West South Central, East South Central, and South Atlantic divisions received a collective 12.2% increase in daily visits between Black Friday and New Years Eve compared to the pre-Black Friday daily average. (Washington, D.C. saw a slight visit decline of 0.4%, likely due to the many residents leaving the capital for the holiday break.) Retailers in this region may choose to increase staffing and inventory ahead of the 2025 holiday season to handle the increased demand.
Meanwhile, the Midwest region had the smallest holiday-driven traffic spike (9.2%) – despite starting the season ahead of the pack, with the highest Black Friday weekend visit boost. This suggests that Midwestern retailers may have more success with early promotions than with last-minute discounts.
While the holiday season drove an overall retail visit boost nationwide, diving deeper into the data reveals that different retail segments peak at different points of the holiday season.
Most categories – especially the ones that tend to offer steep post-Thanksgiving discounts, such as recreational & sporting goods, department stores, electronics stores, and beauty retailers – received the biggest visit spikes on Black Friday. Retailers in these categories may benefit from promotional campaigns ahead of Thanksgiving to cater to early shoppers and maximize their performance on their busiest day.
Other segments that carry more affordable gifts, stocking stuffers, and food items gained momentum as Christmas approached – with superstores visits spiking on December 23rd and discount & dollar stores peaking on December 24th. These retailers may get even larger end-of-year visit bumps by offering discounts and bundles to last-minute shoppers.
The grocery segment received its largest boost ahead of Thanksgiving, with visits also surging on the days before Christmas as home cooks picked up supplies for the holiday dinner. Grocers who can save their shoppers time during this busy period by offering curbside pickup, pre-prepped ingredients or meal kits, and other conveniences may see particularly strong performances in 2025.
Calendar shifts also play an important role in shaping holiday shopping patterns. Last year, Super Saturday and “Christmas Eve Eve” – each a significant milestone in its own right – coincided on December 23rd, 2023 to create a supercharged shopping event that generated massive visit spikes at retailers across categories.
But in 2024, when the milestones occurred separately, important differences emerged between retailers. Gift-shopping destinations like Macy’s, Nordstrom, and Best Buy saw bigger visit spikes on Super Saturday, while retailers like Target, Walmart, and Costco – carrying both gifts and food items – saw visits surge higher on December 23rd. Dollar Tree, a prime destination for affordable stocking stuffers, also experienced a more pronounced visit spike on Super Saturday.
Predictably, this year’s pre-Christmas milestones generally drove smaller individual visit spikes, as shoppers spread their errands across a longer period. But the stand-alone Super Saturday on December 21st 2024 also allowed consumers to prioritize gift-shopping on Saturday and shop for groceries and last minute stocking stuffers on December 23rd – benefiting certain retailers.
Nordstrom, for instance, saw visits soar to 215.9% above the chain’s 2024 daily average on December 21, 2024 – surpassing the 196.2% increase recorded on December 23, 2023. Macy’s also experienced a slightly higher Super Saturday visit boost this year. Next year, retailers can expect another spread-out pre-Christmas shopping period, with Super Saturday falling on December 20th, 2025 – five days before the holiday. Gift-focused retailers can leverage this timing by ramping up promotions in the run-up to Super Saturday – or by enhancing offerings on December 23rd to capture more late-season shoppers.
Big box retailers like Target, Walmart, and Costco, conversely, can double down on December 23rd or amplify earlier deals to capture a larger share of Super Saturday traffic. And retailers across categories can benefit from the more extended last-minute shopping period by implementing multi-day sales and promotions that encourage repeat visits and drive traffic throughout the week.
Turkey Wednesday – the day before Thanksgiving – is traditionally the grocery sector’s time to shine. And this year didn’t disappoint: On November 27th, 2024, visits to traditional grocery mainstays like Kroger, Safeway, and H-E-B shot up by a remarkable 66.9% to 79.2% compared to the 2024 daily average. And on December 23rd, foot traffic to the chains rose once again, though somewhat more moderately, as shoppers geared up for Christmas celebrations.
But the holiday season stock-up, it turns out, is about more than just food. Whether to help smooth out the rough edges of family interactions or to take celebrations to the next level, consumers also make pre-holiday runs to liquor stores. On Turkey Wednesday, leading spirit purveyors outperformed traditional grocery stores with epic 140.1% to 236.5% visit spikes. And the day before Christmas Eve was an even bigger milestone for the segment, with foot traffic skyrocketing by a staggering 153.6% to 283.8% above daily averages.
Ethnic supermarkets – chains like El Super and Vallarta Supermarket – also thrived on these traditional pre-holiday grocery store milestones. But like liquor stores, they saw bigger visit spikes on December 23rd, as customers likely sought out ingredients for their festive holiday dinners.
Grocery stores seeking to maximize the power of these pre-holiday milestones in 2025 could enhance their liquor selections and launch targeted promotions in the lead-up to both Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Dining venues are also impacted by the rhythms of the holiday season – but each segment within the dining industry follows its own unique seasonal trajectory.
Visits to the fast-casual, coffee, and fine-dining segments increased the week before Thanksgiving, with fast-casual and coffee visits peaking on Wednesday and fine-dining peaking on Thanksgiving day. Both coffee and fine-dining chains also received a small traffic bump on Black Friday, with coffee traffic likely aided by consumers looking to refuel during their shopping.
But beginning in mid-December, the fine-dining category pulled ahead of the other dining segments, picking up steam as the month wore on before peaking on December 23rd and 24th. And while traffic predictably declined on Christmas Day, the drop was less pronounced than for the other analyzed segments. Fine dining then resumed its strong showing on December 26th, maintaining elevated visits through the following days, potentially reflecting its appeal as a festive holiday dining destination for families.
Coffee chains and fast-casual restaurants also enjoyed moderately elevated December traffic, with smaller visit spikes on December 23rd. Traffic to both segments then slowed during the holiday – though coffee chains continued to see higher-than-average foot traffic on Christmas Eve – before tapering off as the month drew to a close.
Looking ahead to 2025, each dining segment can take steps to maximize its holiday impact. Fine dining chains can attract more special-occasion celebrants with unique holiday-themed menu items – paired with targeted promotions that make its premium offerings more accessible to families. Meanwhile, fast-casual and coffee chains can capitalize on high-traffic days like December 23rd by catering to the needs of busy holiday shoppers – extending operating hours and offering streamlined ordering and pickup options.
The 2024 holiday season proved strong for most retail categories, with each retail category displaying a different holiday visit pattern. This year’s calendar layout also presented a unique advantage, with a longer stretch between Super Saturday and Christmas compared to last year.
By analyzing 2024 holiday regional visit trends, understanding the role that each year’s specific calendar configuration plays in shaping consumer behavior, and identifying the unique retail milestones for each chain and category, retail and dining stakeholders can refine their strategies and make the most of the 2025 holiday season.
Placer.ai observes a panel of mobile devices in order to extrapolate and generate visitation insights for a variety of locations across the U.S. This panel covers only visitors from within the United States and does not represent or take into account international visitors.
Professional sports are big business – the industry is valued at nearly $1 billion in the United States alone. And beyond the economic impact of actual ticket sales and stadium and sponsorship gains, major sporting events can have significant impacts on local industries such as tourism, dining, and hospitality. Cities hosting sports events tend to see influxes of visitors who boost tourism, spend money at restaurants and hotels, and create ripple effects that benefit entire local economies.
The 2024 Copa América, typically held in South America but hosted in the United States this year, provides a prime example of the effect sports tourism can have on local economies. The games kicked off in Atlanta, Georgia on June 20th, 2024, before moving on to other host cities and boosting hospitality traffic along the way.
This white paper dives into the data to see how the games impacted hotel visits in cities across America – and especially in Atlanta. The report uncovers the hotel tiers and brands that saw the largest visit boosts and explores visitor demographics to better understand the audiences drawn to the event.
The Copa América took place in June and July 2024, with fourteen cities – mainly across the Sunbelt – hosting games. Thousands of fans attended each event, driving up demand in local hotel markets.
Arlington, TX, saw the largest hotel visit bump during the week it hosted the games, with hospitality traffic up 23.0% compared to the metro area's weekly January to September 2024 visit average. Orlando, FL, too, enjoyed a significant visit spike (22.1%), followed by Kansas City, KS-MO (17.4%).
The Atlanta metropolitan area, for its part, also saw a significant 11.0% increase in hotel visits during its hosting week compared to the city’s weekly visit average.
The Copa América games attracted fans from across the country – from as far away as Washington State and New Hampshire, as well as from neighboring states like Florida. On the day the tournament began, 26.1% of the domestic visitors to Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium came from over 250 miles away, up from an average of 19.7% during the rest of the year (January to September 2024). These out-of-towners likely had a significant impact on Atlanta’s local economy – through spending on accommodations, dining, and entertainment.
During the week of the Copa América game, all of the analyzed hotel types in Atlanta received a visit bump. And while some of these visits were likely unrelated to the game, the massive scale of the event means that a significant share of the visit growth was likely driven by out-of-town soccer fans. Analyzing these patterns Atlanta can provide valuable insights for hospitality stakeholders looking to attract attendees of major sporting events.
Upper Midscale hotels saw the biggest boost during the week of the event, with visits 20.8% higher than the weekly visit average between January and September 2024. Midscale and Upscale hotels also experienced significant visit increases of 15.8% and 14.0%, respectively. During the same period, visits to Luxury hotels grew by 9.0% and Economy Hotel visits rose by 7.0% compared to the January to September 2024 weekly average. Meanwhile Upper Upscale Hotels received the smallest boost, with visits up by 2.9%.
Judging by these travel patterns, it appears that most Copa América spectators prefer to stay at Midscale, Upper Midscale, or Upscale hotels during the trip.
While Upper Midscale Hotels in the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta metro area generally experienced the biggest visit boost during the Copa América, visit performance varied somewhat from chain to chain. TownePlace Suites and Fairfield Inn, both Upper Midscale Marriott properties, saw increases of 27.5% and 25.3%, respectively, compared to their January to September 2024 weekly averages. Other chains in the tier also enjoyed visit boosts – visits to Home2 Suites by Hilton and Hampton Inn – both Hilton chains – jumped by 17.3% and 17.4%, respectively, during the same period.
The popularity of these Upper Midscale hotels may be driven by a multitude of factors. Some, like TownePlace Suites and Home2 Suites offer kitchenettes, something that may appeal to visitors looking to save by preparing their own meals. Others, such as Fairfield Inn and Hampton Inn which offer more locations closer to the stadium may attract visitors that prioritize convenience.
Layering the STI: PopStats dataset onto Placer.ai’s captured market can provide insights into Copa América attendees by revealing the demographic attributes of census block groups (CBGs) contributing visitors to the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. (The CBGs feeding visitors to a chain or venue, weighted to reflect the share of visitors from each one, are collectively referred to as the business’ captured market.)
During the Copa América opener,Mercedes-Benz Stadium drew visitors from CBGs with a median household income (HHI) of $90.0K – well above the national median of $76.1K and similar to the median HHI during the Taylor Swift concert ($90.6K). The stadium’s trade area median HHI was even higher during the Super Bowl ($117.9K).
This visitor profile suggests that Copa América attendees – along with guests of other major cultural and sporting events – often have the means to splurge on comfortable, mid-range hotels for their stays. As Atlanta gears up to host the College Football National Championship in January 2025, the 62nd Super Bowl in February 2028, and the MLB All Star Game in July 2025, along with a host of smaller-scale events – the city can draw on historical data from past events, including the Copa América, to better understand the needs and preferences of stadium visitors and plan accordingly.
And although Upper Upscale hotels generally experienced relatively subdued growth during the Atlanta Copa América opener, some Upper Upscale properties – including Marriott’s Autograph Collection Twelve Downtown, saw visits jump. Visits to the hotel were up 19.7% during the week of the Copa América compared to the January to September 2024 weekly average.
The Twelve Downtown has become a popular lodging choice for major events in the city, likely due to its proximity to Mercedes-Benz Stadium. (The hotel is located just over a mile away from the stadium). During the Super Bowl LIII five years ago, the Twelve Downtown drew 27.9% more visits than its weekly average for January to September 2019. And during the 2023 Taylor Swift concert, the hotel saw a 25.5% visit bump.
A closer look at the median HHI of the hotel’s captured market during the three periods reveals that, despite each event attracting visitors from varying income brackets, the median HHI of visitors to the Twelve Downtown remained stable. Visitors to the hotel between January and September 2024 came from trade areas where the median HHI was $76.2K, not far off from the median HHI during the 2019 Super Bowl ($75.4K), Taylor Swift’s 2023 concert ($80.6K) and the Copa América ($76.7K).
This stability suggests that, regardless of the event, hotels attract a specific visitor base. And understanding the similarities within the demographic profiles of likely hotel visitors during different events will be key for hotels at all levels seeking to capitalize on the economic opportunities created by major local events.
The Mountain region offers employment opportunities, affordable housing, outdoors recreation, and a relatively low cost of living – which could explain why these states are emerging as major domestic migration hubs. Idaho, Nevada and Wyoming in particular have consistently attracted inbound domestic migration in recent years, as Americans continue leaving higher density regions in search of greener – and calmer – pastures.
This report uses various datasets from the Placer.ai Migration Trends Report to analyze domestic migration to Idaho, Nevada, and Wyoming. Where are people coming from? And how is recent migration impacting local population centers in these states? Keep reading to find out.
Idaho emerged as a domestic migration hotspot over the pandemic, as many Americans freed from the obligation of in-person work relocated to the Gem State. Between June 2020 and June 2024, Idaho saw positive net migration of 4.7%, more than any other state in the U.S. (This metric measures the number of people moving to a state minus the number of people leaving – expressed as a percentage of the state’s total population.) And between 2023 and 2024, Idaho remained the nation’s top domestic migration performer (see map above).
Diving into the data reveals that though people moved to Idaho from across the U.S., most of Idaho’s influx over the past four years came from neighboring West Coast and Mountain States – especially California. Former residents of the Golden State accounted for a whopping 58.1% of inbound migrants to Idaho over the analyzed period.
California’s position as the top feeder of relocators to Idaho during the analyzed period may come as no surprise, given the state’s recent population outflow and the many former California residents who have settled in the Mountain region. But Washington, Oregon, and Nevada – where inbound and outbound migration remained relatively even in recent years – have also been seeing shifts to Idaho.
Idaho has a lower tax burden, robust employment opportunities, and greater overall affordability than its top four feeder states. So some of the recent relocators likely moved to the Gem State to enjoy better economic opportunities while staying relatively close to their states of origin. And these recent Idahoans may be reshaping Idaho’s demographic and economic landscape in the process.
Most inbound migration to Idaho is concentrated in the state’s metro areas, with Boise – the capital of Idaho and the major city closest to California – consistently absorbing the highest share of net inbound migration.
But recently, other CBSAs have emerged as key destinations for new Idahoans. The location of two emerging domestic relocation hubs in particular suggests that many new Idaho residents may be looking to stay close to their areas of origin: Coeur d’Alene, located near the border with Washington, attracts its largest contingent of new residents from the Spokane, WA metro area, while Twin Falls’ top feeder area is the Elko CBSA in northern Nevada.
Twin Falls in southern Idaho has a strong job market – and has received a substantial share of inbound domestic migration over the past three years. Coeur d’Alene is also flush with economic opportunities, and after declining steadily for several years, the share of relocators heading to the metro area increased to 20.7% between June 2023 and 2024.
The chart above also reveals that the share of inbound migration heading to Boise declined slightly between June 2023 and June 2024 – following a period of consistent growth between June 2020 and June 2023 – even as the share of migration to Coeur d’Alene ballooned. This may mean that, although the state’s largest metro area may have reached its saturation point, other areas in the state are still primed to receive inbound migration.
While Nevada is losing some of its population to nearby Idaho, the Silver State is also gaining new residents of its own: Between September 2020 and September 2024, the Silver State experienced positive net migration of 3.3%. And the data indicates that many new Nevadans are choosing to settle in the state's rapidly growing suburban centers.
Zooming into the Las Vegas-Henderson CBSA reveals that much of the growth is concentrated outside the main city of Las Vegas. Instead, the more suburban cities of Enterprise, Henderson, and North Las Vegas received the largest migration bump – with Henderson and North Las Vegas’ population now surpassing that of Reno. And while year-over-year migration trends suggest that the growth is beginning to stabilize, Enterprise and Henderson are still growing significantly faster than the CBSA as a whole – indicating that the suburbs continue to draw Nevada newcomers.
Analyzing the inbound domestic migration to Enterprise – one of the fastest growing areas in the country – may shed light on the aspects of suburban Las Vegas that are driving population growth.
Many new Enterprise residents moved to the city from elsewhere in Nevada, while most out-of-state newcomers came from California or Hawaii – mirroring the migration patterns for Nevada as a whole. And according to the Niche Neighborhood Grades dataset, Enterprise is a good fit for retirees and young professionals alike, with the city ranking higher than its feeder areas with regard to a range of factors – from jobs and commute to weather.
Like with migration to the rest of the Mountain region, domestic migration to Nevada – particularly to suburban areas like Enterprise and Henderson – is likely driven by newcomers looking for more economic opportunities along with higher quality of life.
Wyoming – currently the least populous state in the country – is another Mountain region state where inbound migration is driving up the population numbers. But in the Cowboy State, urban areas – as opposed to suburban ones – seem to be the main magnets for population growth.
The Cheyenne, Wyoming CBSA – home to Wyoming’s capital – is the largest metro area in the state. And analyzing the CBSA’s population trends over the past six years reveals a recent shift in Wyoming’s inbound migration patterns.
Cheyenne’s population is mostly suburban, and the CBSA’s suburban areas remain popular with newcomers – suburban Cheyenne has also seen steady population growth since January 2018. But when the CBSA became a popular relocation destination over the pandemic, many newcomers to the Cheyenne region chose to move to metro area’s more rural areas: By April 2022, Cheyenne’s rural population had jumped by 10.8% compared to a January 2018 baseline, compared to a 5.9% and 3.9% increase in the CBSA’s suburban and urban populations, respectively.
As the country opened back up, however, the number of rural Cheyenne residents dropped back down – and by September 2024, Cheyenne’s rural population was only 0.1% bigger than it had been in January 2018. The population growth in suburban Cheyenne also slowed down, with the September 2024 suburban population numbers more or less on par with the April 2022 figures.
Now, Cheyenne’s urban areas have overtaken both rural and suburban areas in terms of population growth: In September 2024, Cheyenne’s urban population was 9.4% bigger than in January 2018, compared to 5.2% and 0.1% growth for the suburban and urban areas, respectively.
Despite the growth in Cheyenne’s urban population, the suburbs still remain the most populous – as of September 2024, 71.2% of the CBSA’s population resided in suburban areas. But the continued growth of Cheyenne’s urban population may reflect a rising demand among Wyomingites for amenities and economic opportunities unavailable elsewhere in the state, mirroring the trend in Idaho’s urban CBSAs such as Boise and Coeur d'Alene.
Cheyenne’s urban growth could be partially due to shifts in migration patterns. At the height of the pandemic, most newcomers to Cheyenne were coming from out of state, perhaps drawn by the quiet and spaciousness of rural Wyoming. But since 2022, the share of migration to Cheyenne from within Wyoming has grown – coinciding with the population increase in its urban areas and suggesting that Cheyenne's amenities are attracting more residents statewide.
This growing intra-state migration to Cheyenne’s urban areas underscores the city’s evolving role as a hub within Wyoming, appealing not just to newcomers from outside the state but increasingly to Wyoming residents seeking the benefits of a more urban lifestyle relative to the rest of the state.
The Mountain States are solidifying their status as key migration hubs in the U.S., driven by economic opportunities, affordable living, and lifestyle appeal. Between September 2023 and September 2024, Idaho, Nevada, and Wyoming all experienced significant population growth due to inbound domestic migration. In Idaho, newcomers from neighboring states are boosting the population of the Gem State’s major metro areas. Meanwhile the Cheyenne, Wyoming, CBSA is emerging as a focal point for intra-state migration, with urban Cheyenne seeing particularly pronounced growth. And in Nevada, suburban hubs like Henderson and Enterprise are welcoming new arrivals seeking a balance of suburban comfort and economic potential. With the cost of living continuing to increase – and the Mountain region offering something for everyone through its various states – Idaho, Nevada, and Wyoming are likely to remain top migration destinations in 2025 and beyond.
