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CVS and Walgreens are the two leading brick-and-mortar pharmacy chains, controlling together over 40% of the U.S. prescription drug market. And although the companies have been rightsizing their physical footprint over the past couple of years, CVS and Walgreens together still operate over 18,000 locations throughout the country.
And while the two chains may sometimes appear interchangeable, diving into the demographic differences between CVS and Walgreens’ trade areas indicates that each brand serves a slightly different audience.
A chain’s potential market looks at the Census Block Groups – CBGs – where visitors to a chain come from, weighted according to the population of each CBG. And since both CVS and Walgreens operate in all 50 states and often have locations in the same town or city, the makeup of the two chains’ potential market trade area is remarkably similar – indicating that both chains have the potential to reach the same types of households.
But diving into the captured market (the trade area of each chain weighted according to the actual number of visits from each CBG) reveals a major difference in trade area median household income (HHI). Although both chains have the potential to attract visitors with a median HHI of around $70.0K, visitors to CVS come from CBGs with a median HHI of $76K – meaning that visitors to CVS tend to come from the more affluent neighborhoods within CVS’s potential trade area. Walgreens visitors, on the other hand, come from CBGs with a median HHI of $67.5K, which is lower than the median HHI in the brand’s potential market, and indicates that Walgreens visitors tend to come from the less affluent neighborhood within the company’s trade area.
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The two pharmacy leaders also seem to attract different shares of singles and families, although the differences are not as pronounced as the differences in median HHI.
CVS and Walgreens have equal shares of one-person & non-family households in their trade areas, but the share of this segment in Walgreens’ captured market is slightly larger than in CVS’ captured market. Still, for both brands, one-person and non-family households are slightly underrepresented in the captured market relative to the potential market, indicating that singles across the board are perhaps slightly less likely to visit brick-and-mortar pharmacy chains.
On the other hand, both CVS and Walgreens had more families (households with four or more children) in their captured market than in their potential market – although the share of this segment in CVS’ captured market was slightly higher than in Walgreens’.
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CVS’ relative popularity with family segments also comes through when looking at the psychographic makeup of its trade area. When compared to Walgreens, CVS’s captured market included larger shares of three out of four family-oriented segments analyzed by the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset – Ultra Wealthy Families, Wealthy Suburban Families, and Near-Urban Diverse Families. Walgreens’ captured market did include larger shares of Upper Suburban Diverse Families, but the difference was minimal – 9.8% for Walgreens compared to 9.5% for CVS.
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CVS and Walgreens carry a very similar product selection, and the two chains’ nearly identical potential trade area makeup indicates that both brands’ locations have the potential to reach the same types of customers. But diving into CVS and Walgreens’ captured market reveals some differences between the two chains’ audiences – CVS tends to attract more affluent visitors, while Walgreens seems slightly more popular among singles.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/blog.
From high prices to changing workplace attire (yes, soft pants are most definitely still a thing) – the fashion industry faced plenty of headwinds in 2023. But some segments, like off-price and thrift stores, reaped the benefits of trading down by consumers. And the category as a whole enjoyed a robust holiday season, helping to drive record holiday sales.
So with 2024 getting underway, we dove into the data to explore the evolving relationship between three major segments that comprise the fashion industry: non-off-price apparel chains, off-price retailers (such as T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, Ross Dress for Less, and Burlington), and thrift shops.* Which segment drew the most foot traffic in 2023? And how have the demographic profiles of visitors to the three sub-categories shifted in recent years?
*Analysis includes major thrift shop chains, including Goodwill, the Salvation Army, Buffalo Exchange, Plato’s Closet, and others.
Last year saw an acceleration of the redistribution of foot traffic between non-off-price apparel retailers, off-price apparel chains, and thrift shops – a trend which began even before COVID. Back in 2017, non-off-price apparel stores accounted for just over 50% of visits to these three segments – but in the years since, the sub-category’s visit share dwindled to 38.9%. Over the same period, off–price-apparel chains grew their visit share by 8.1 percentage points, from 39.3% to 47.4%, and the share of visits to thrift shops increased by 3.2%.
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Unsurprisingly, non-off-price apparel chains have traditionally attracted more affluent consumers than either off-price retailers or thrift stores. And throughout the analyzed period, the captured market of non-off-price apparel retailers continued to feature a median household income (HHI) that was significantly higher than the nationwide baseline, while the captured markets of off-price chains and thrift stores featured median HHIs below the nationwide median.
But the three segments were impacted differently by shifts in consumer behavior in the wake of the pandemic. In early 2020, all three sub-categories experienced significant dips in the affluence of their captured markets. But while thrift shops saw an immediate HHI rebound, non-off-price apparel chains – and even more so off-price retailers – have yet to see the affluence of their visitor bases return to 2019 levels.
Foot traffic data also reveals an interesting divide in the household composition of visitors to the three segments: While the income profiles of off-price apparel shoppers are more akin to those of thrifters, their household composition is closer to that of visitors to non-off-price apparel stores.
The potential markets of all three categories, for example, featured similar shares of one-person households in 2023. But their captured markets were quite different – with singles over-represented for thrift stores, and under-represented for off-price and non-off-price apparel stores. This indicates that thrifters hail disproportionately from Census Block Groups (CBGs) that feature higher-than-average shares of one-person households. And visitors to off-price and non-off-price retailers come from the CBGs within the trade areas of these chains that feature smaller-than-expected concentrations of one-person households. Given the special appeal thrift shops carry for demographics like college students, it may come as no surprise that singles are among their best customers.
For families with children, on the other hand, more traditional apparel retailers hold sway: Visitors to off-price and non-off-price apparel stores were more likely to come from areas with higher concentrations of families with children in 2023, while thrifters were more likely to come from areas with smaller ones.
Economic headwinds and evolving consumer preferences have left their mark on the shifting relationship between different sub-categories within the fashion industry. But what does 2024 have in store for the sector? Will cooling inflation and rebounding consumer confidence lead to an increase in visit share for non-off-price favorites? And will more parental households make the pivot to thrift stores?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analyses to find out.
2023 was a challenging year for many restaurant operators as persistent inflation caused many would-be diners to rethink going out for a bite to eat. Today, we take a closer look at three fast-food and fast-casual dining chains – McDonald’s, Chipotle, and Panda Express – to see what – and who – is driving visits to these restaurants.
McDonald’s, Chipotle, and Panda Express each boast thousands of locations across the country. And a closer look at the three chains’ trade areas, analyzed using the STI: Popstats dataset, reveals differences in visitors across each dining chain. The median household income (HHI) of the three chains’ trade areas differed both on a nationwide average basis and when diving into individual states.
Chipotle consistently drew in visitors coming from higher-income trade areas – its nationwide median HHI stood at $75.9K/year. In contrast, Panda Express’ trade area had nationwide median HHIs of $68.2K/year, and McDonald’s, known for its affordability, had a trade area median $61.2K/year, respectively. And these trends persisted across all analyzed states, including New York, Texas, Arizona, North Carolina, and Florida, with Chipotle drawing visitors from the highest-income areas, followed by Panda Express and then McDonald’s.
The past few years have seen consumers shifting their dining patterns as the pandemic with its more flexible schedules and drop in office attendance led many to adjust when, and where, they went out to eat. And though some pre-COVID habits have now returned, other consumer behaviors have proved to be stickier.
For example, McDonald’s saw a significant drop in its share of early morning and lunch visits between 2019 and 2021, likely a result of fewer workers heading into the office and grabbing a coffee or Big Mac for a pick-me-up. But 2023 saw breakfast visits ticking back up, growing from 15.9% to 16.7% YoY, perhaps driven by a gradual return to in-person work.
Meanwhile, Panda Express, which also saw lunchtime visits drop in 2021 – but visits between 11:00 AM and 2:00 PM have steadily increased since and almost reached pre-pandemic levels in 2023. Midday visits also increased while dinnertime (7 PM to 10 PM) visits decreased slightly – perhaps thanks to the chain’s recent focus on building out its to-go options, which allows customers to pick up dinner on their way home instead of heading out to dine on-premises.
Like the other two chains, Chipotle also experienced a decline in lunchtime visits in 2021 – but unlike Panda Express, the lunchtime rush at Chipotle has yet to return in full force, with the share of visits between 11 AM and 2 PM just 36.2% in 2023 compared to 40.0% in 2019. At the same time, mid-afternoon (3 PM to 6 PM) visits picked up, which may be due to the chain’s relatively high prices compared to the other two chains leading some consumers to stick with lower-cost afternoon snacks instead of full meals. And evening visits have also increased since COVID, perhaps driven by the wider QSR trend towards more late-night visits and by some consumers choosing to visit Chipotle for their main meal of the day instead of splurging on an on-the-go lunch.
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McDonald’s, Chipotle, and Panda Express have managed to find their own niche within the crowded and competitive world of quick-service and fast-casual dining. Will their success continue into 2024?
Visit placer.ai/blog to find out.
For grocery stores, last year held plenty of challenges – from high food-at-home prices to increased competition from non-traditional grocery players like dollar stores and superstores. But 2023 also offered the segment plenty of opportunities. Discount chains made a strong showing – and customers spent more time browsing grocery aisles, loading up on essentials and making every trip to the store count.
But which grocery brands were most popular in 2023? Did large national chains dominate the scene, or did regional and local banners also have a role to play? And what can foot traffic analytics tell us about some of the broader trends that shaped brick-and-mortar grocery shopping last year?
We dove into the data to find out.
The nation’s most-visited grocery banner in 2023 was Kroger, which captured almost 19% of annual foot traffic to the nation’s ten most-frequented grocery chains. Safeway, owned by Albertsons, also made the top ten list.
But significantly, several regional chains also garnered significant nationwide visit share – including Texas cult-favorite H-E-B, midwestern Meijer, and East Coast Food Lion and ShopRite. Aldi, the no-frills budget chain that keeps prices low by offering a limited inventory of mainly private-label products, emerged as the fourth most-visited grocery store in the country. And fan-favorite Trader Joe’s, also known for its high-quality own-label merchandise, drew 6.5% of visits to the top ten brands.
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And drilling down deeper into the data for each of the fifty states shows that each region of the country had its own local favorite. Kroger banners – including Kroger, Smith’s, King Soopers, Dillons, Fry’s Food Stores, Fred Meyer, and Pick n’ Save – topped the charts in 14 states. In one of these (Oregon), Kroger’s Fred Meyer was tied for first place with Safeway, an Albertsons banner. In addition to Oregon, Albertsons banners took the lead in nine more states, mainly in the Western region of the U.S., while Ahold Delhaize banners ranked first in seven Northeast and South Atlantic states. And a variety of more local chains held sway throughout much of the Midwest and parts of the South.
Who were the shoppers driving visits to brick-and-mortar grocery stores in 2023? Location intelligence shows that overall, visitors to grocery chains last year tended to come from areas with slightly higher median household incomes (HHIs) than the nationwide average. Less affluent consumers, perhaps, were more likely to seek out lower-cost grocery alternatives like dollar stores. At the same time, there remained significant HHI gaps between chains, likely reflective in part of regional differences.
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And comparing the overall median HHI of grocery chains’ captured markets to that of previous years reveals a small but distinct decline in the relative affluence of likely grocery visitors, from $76.2K in 2019 to $73.8K in 2023. Over the same period, the share of “Flourishing Families” in the chains’ captured markets (A psychographic segment encompassing affluent middle-aged families and couples) decreased slightly, while the share of “Singles and Starters” increased.
These shifts may be partially due to the more widespread adoption of online grocery shopping among certain audience segments in the wake of COVID. While ecommerce only accounted for an estimated 7.2% of grocery spending as of May 2023 – with high delivery fees continuing to deter many Americans from going the online route – higher-HHI consumers may be particularly willing to prioritize convenience over price.
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For grocery stores, 2023 was all about value – with many customers flocking to discount chains and going out of their way to maximize savings. Still, traditional mainstays like Kroger and Albertsons continued to capture the biggest pieces of the grocery pie.
What does 2024 have in store for the grocery space? Will shoppers place less emphasis on savings as inflation continues to ease? And which chains will emerge as nationwide and regional winners?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven retail analyses to find out.
While brutally cold weather blasts much of the continental U.S. this week--including the Midwest, Deep South, and Montana--one might just dream about moving to the balmy shores of Hawaii, where temperatures have been hovering in the high 70s of late. Besides being home to the Ala Moana Center, the most-visited open-air shopping center in the US over the holidays, there is also constant redevelopment and improvement occurring on the island of Oahu.
For instance, the International Market Place on Kalakaua Ave, once known for decades as a touristy collection of kiosks, has upped its game and now boasts a Tesla showroom and a Balenciaga store at its entrance. Were it not for the commanding Banyan Tree that has been preserved, one would hardly recognize this iteration of the shopping venue compared to 10 years ago. Since it re-opened in early 2017, traffic has steadily been climbing. Hawaii tourism was hit hard by COVID in Spring 2020, but by July 2021 we begin to see a marked increase, to be repeated and exceeded in subsequent Julys as well. The summer of 2023 boasts a record in traffic originating from domestic visitors for the International Market Place.
Just down the street is the Royal Hawaiian Center, which encompasses three separate buildings that are connected by skywalks. Since its opening in 1980, it too has seen numerous changes, though its commitment to sharing the spirit of Aloha remains the same. The food options are extensive and come from all corners of the globe, such as Wolfgang’s Steakhouse, Tsurutontan Udon Noodle, Tim Ho Wan dim sum, and Wicked Maine Lobster. There was a massive spike in visitation in July 2021, which has since decreased a bit, but is still above pre-COVID levels.
There are definitely some unique, only-in-Hawaii treats, such as the shaka waffle ice cream cone at Kokoro Cafe at the Royal Hawaiian Center.
The other notable shift at the Royal Hawaiian Center is the bountiful array of luxury shopping available. From Hermes to Fendi, Harry Winston to Tiffany, designer showcases beckon from the street as well as from the interior corridors.
When we last checked in on the home furnishing retail category, we noted that we had started to see a divergence among several of the various subcategories, with houseware retailers seeing great visits year-over-year relative to furniture retailers. At the time, we hypothesized that housewares were outperforming because of several reasons, including (1) consumers’ willingness to spend around holiday periods last year due to post-pandemic home entertaining trends; (2) the departure of Bed Bath & Beyond and other retailer from the market driving visits to other housewares retailers; and (3) urban residential migration trends among younger families increasing demand for houseware trends. The divergence in visitation trends continued through the back half of 2023, with housewares continuing to outperform through December.
One of the home furnishing subcategories that flew under the radar in 2023 is mattresses. As shown above, this retail category didn’t quite keep pace with houseware retail visit trends, but outperformed value and full-priced furniture. What’s behind this outperformance? For starters, our data indicates that migration trends may play a role. We reviewed visitation trends for pure-play mattress retailers across the top 25 CBSAs in the U.S. (ranked by population) during the Black Friday promotional period (early November 2023 to early December 2023) and found that several of the top performing markets–New York, San Francisco, Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit–had seen total population declines since the pandemic (according to Placer's Migration Trends Report) but also experienced a rebound in population growth this past summer, creating increased demand for mattresses. However, population trends continued on a downward trajectory in the second half of 2023 in a number of these markets, indicating this demand may not be sustainable.
What should home furnishing retailers expect in 2024? From a year-over-year visitation standpoint, we expect the subcategories to remain roughly the same in terms of rankings through the first half of the year, with housewares continuing to lead, followed by mattresses, value furniture, and then full-priced furniture. Continued migration trends across the U.S.--especially smaller markets–should continue to stimulate demand for housewares and mattresses (although Temu and other online retailers will also compete for houseware spending in the year ahead). Migration trends should also create demand for value furniture retailers, as should new smaller-format and smaller-market store openings from IKEA and others. Full-priced furniture will continue to face headwinds in the form of elevated mortgage rates (compared to last year), sluggish new housing development trends, and stagnant housing turnover, suggesting that visitation trends could be challenged for much of 2024 (despite facing easier comparisons).
Stadiums and arenas – and the communities they call home – have a stake in cultivating engaged team fanbases eager to participate in live events. And venues and teams can employ a variety of strategies to strengthen their connection with fans and draw crowds to the stands.
In this report, we leverage location analytics and audience segmentation to uncover some of the ways that sports franchises and venues are driving engagement – attracting visitors from farther away and appealing to fans more likely to splurge on stadium fare. How does the signing of a star athlete impact arena visitor profiles? What happens to stadium visitation trends when a team’s performance improves dramatically? And how can teams and venues tailor their offerings to more effectively cater to visitor preferences?
We dove into the data to find out.
In sports, the signing of a star athlete can have a ripple effect across the organization, hometown, and league. In addition to driving up overall attendance at games, star power can impact everything from visit frequency to audience profile – and the buying power of stadium attendees.
Lionel Messi’s move to Inter Miami CF after decades of European play brought a foot traffic boost to Chase Stadium (formerly DRV PNK Stadium). But it also shifted the demographics of stadium visitors and increased the distance they traveled to attend a game.
At Inter Miami’s 2022 and 2023 home openers without Messi (he joined the team mid-season in 2023), only 6.4% and 5.3% of visitors to Chase Stadium came from over 250 miles away. But for the 2024 home opener with Messi on the squad, 31.3% of stadium visitors traveled more than 250 miles to attend.
The demographics of visitors at the home opener also changed with Messi on the team. Trade area data combined with the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset reveals that the 2024 home opener received a smaller share of households in the “Near-Urban Diverse Families” (11.2%) and “Young Urban Singles” (7.2%) segments than the two previous years. Meanwhile, shares of “Sunset Boomers” (13.0%) and “Ultra Wealthy Families” (20.1%) increased, indicating that Messi brought an older and more affluent demographic of visitors to the stadium compared to previous years. Messi’s arrival has generated increased revenue for Inter Miami CF, Major League Soccer, and Apple TV+, which has exclusive streaming rights for MLS games. And an influx of affluent out-of-town visitors also has the potential to drive positive outcomes for tourism and employment in the Miami area.
Caitlin Clark’s WNBA debut was another star-powered game changer – this time for women’s basketball. After dazzling the sports world during her college basketball career, Caitlin Clark was drafted first overall to the Indiana Fever before the 2024 WNBA season. The superstar’s arrival has had a staggering economic impact on the city of Indianapolis and the Fever franchise, highlighting the benefit of a top athlete within the local community. However, Clark’s stardom also had a far-reaching impact on the league as a whole, adding tremendous value to the WNBA. Trade area analysis reveals that several WNBA arenas saw an uptick in visitor affluence when hosting the Fever with Clark in the lineup – likely driven in part by the elevated ticket prices associated with her appearances.
When the Minnesota Lynx hosted the Fever on July 14th, 2024, for example, the median HHI of Target Center’s captured market shot up to just over $93K/year, well above the median HHIs for the games immediately before and after that event. (A venue’s captured market refers to the census block groups (CBGs) from which it draws its visitors, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each one – and thus reflects the profile of the venue’s visitor base.) Similarly, the Fever’s away game against the Connecticut Sun on May 14th, 2024 at Mohegan Sun Arena drove a higher audience median HHI ($103.6K/year) than either of the Sun’s next two home games.
Having a superstar on the roster can drive positive outcomes locally and league-wide – but overall team success is the ultimate goal for any franchise. So it may come as no surprise that stadiums and arenas can drive engagement when their home teams perform well on the field or court. And teams that reverse their fortunes often spark even greater excitement, boosting visitor loyalty, visit duration, and other key metrics.
The Baltimore Orioles had one of the worst records in baseball just a few years ago. But since 2022, the team has flipped the script – stringing together winning seasons and postseason berths. And location intelligence shows that as the team finds success, fans are becoming more engaged with their hometown stadium.
During the 2019 regular season, one of the worst for the club in recent history, stadium attendance suffered, with only 8.3% of visitors to Oriole Park at Camden Yards visiting the stadium at least three times. But during the 2024 regular season, Oriole Park’s share of repeat visitors (those who visited at least three times) was almost double 2019 levels (16.3%) – consistent with a sharp increase in sales of multi-game ticket packages.
In addition to attending games more often, visitors to Oriole Park also appear to be spending more time at the ballpark. During the 2019 regular season, visitors spent an average of 150 minutes at the stadium, but in 2024, the average time at the park increased to 178 minutes – potentially boosting ancillary spending and in-stadium advertising exposure. The increased dwell time of visitors is particularly noteworthy when considering that MLB’s rule changes have significantly shortened average game time.
The more engaged fandom engendered by team success not only impacts stadium visitor behavior, but also has the potential to drive revenue. The Orioles added 20 new corporate sponsors before the 2024 season, likely due to the attention garnered by the well-performing club.
The NFL’s Detroit Lions provide another example of team success that has driven visitor engagement. As the franchise has improved its record in recent years, the trade area size of its stadium – Ford Field – has also increased, indicating elevated attendance from fans living further away.
The Lions finished the regular season with losing records from 2019 to 2021, but finished over .500 in 2022 (9-8), 2023 (12-5), and 2024 (15-2). And with the team’s increasing wins each consecutive season, the size of its stadium's trade area has also increased steadily – reaching 81.3% above 2019 levels in 2024.
This underscores just how much team success matters to fans, who may be more inclined to travel longer distances if they believe their team is likely to win. Ultimately, broader fan engagement across a wider trade area also increases a team’s growth potential beyond in-stadium attendance – driving merchandise sales, increasing viewership, and benefitting both the team and the league as a whole.
While stadium attendance and visitor behavior is often correlated to the performance of the sports teams that play in the arena, sporting venues can also drive fan engagement in ways that aren’t solely tied to team success or big-name athletes. By adapting their concessions and venue operations to visitor preferences, stadiums and arenas can better serve their audiences and strengthen their community presence.
Consumers have been feeling the pinch of rising food costs for quite some time, but at least one NBA team has responded to make concessions at the game more affordable for fans. In December 2024, the Phoenix Suns announced a $2 value menu for all home games at Footprint Center – delivering steep discounts on hot dogs, water, soda, and snacks.
Location analytics suggest that since the value menu launch, more fans who would have otherwise waited until after leaving the venue to grab a bite are now enjoying food and drinks inside the arena. Analysis of five Suns home games just before the value menu launch – between November 26th and December 15th, 2024 – reveals that between 7.0% and 9.3% of stadium visitors visited a dining establishment after leaving the arena. But following the value menu launch before the December 19th, 2024 home game, post-game dining decreased to under 6.0% through the end of the year.
Suns owner Mat Ishbia’s announcement of the new menu called out the need for affordable food options for families at Suns games. As the season progresses, the new menu may drive a larger share of family households to Suns games, which could provide opportunities for advertisers and other stadium partners.
Consumers in Washington – and especially Seattle – are known for their affinity for plant-based diets and environmentally-friendly lifestyles. And that goes for local football fans as well: Audience segmentation provided by the AGS: Behavior & Attitudes dataset combined with trade area data reveals that during September to December 2024, households within Lumen Field’s potential visitor base were 36% more likely to be “Environmentally Conscious Buyers” and “Environmental Contributors” and 39% more likely to be “Vegans” compared to the nationwide average. By contrast, across all NFL stadiums, potential visiting households were 2%, 1%, and 3% less likely, respectively, to belong to these segments.
And Lumen Field has been actively catering to these consumer preferences. The stadium, which has been experimenting with plant-based culinary options for quite some time, was recently recognized as one of the most vegan-friendly stadiums in the NFL. And in December 2024, Lumen became the second stadium in the league to achieve TRUE precertification for its efforts to become a zero-waste venue.
By remaining aligned with its visitor base – including both football fans and people that visit the stadium for other events – Lumen Field encourages visitors to feel at home at their local stadium. And fans may be more connected to their team knowing the club shares their values and respects their lifestyle.
Stadiums and arenas can leverage a variety of strategies to engage visitors in attendance as well as wider audiences. Signing a star athlete, putting together a winning club, or adapting to local preferences are just some of the ways that sports franchises and athletic venues can find success.
Starbucks. Amazon. Barclays. AT&T. UPS. These are just some of the major corporations that have made waves in recent months with return-to-office (RTO) mandates requiring employees to show up in person more often – some of them five days a week.
But how are crackdowns like these taking shape on the ground? Is the office recovery still underway, or has it run its course? And how are evolving in-office work patterns impacting commuting hubs and dining trends? This white paper dives into the data to assess the state of office recovery in 2024 – and to explore what lies ahead for the sector in 2025.
In 2024, office foot traffic continued its slow upward climb, with visits to the Placer.ai Office Index down just 34.3% compared to 2019. (In other words, visits to the Placer.ai Office Index were 65.7% of their pre-COVID levels). And zooming in on year-over-year (YoY) trends reveals that office visits grew by 10.0% in 2024 compared to 2023 – showing that employee (and manager) pushback notwithstanding, the RTO is still very much taking place.
Indeed, diving into quarterly office visit fluctuations since Q4 2019 shows that office visits have been on a slow, steady upward trajectory since Q2 2020, following – at least since 2022 – a fairly consistent seasonal pattern. In Q1, Q2, and Q3 of each year, office visit levels increased steadily before dipping in holiday-heavy Q4 – only to recover to an even higher start-of-year baseline in the following Q1.
Between Q1 and Q3 2022, for example, the post pandemic office visit gap (compared to a Q4 2019 baseline) narrowed from 63.1% to 47.5%. It then widened temporarily in Q4 before reaching a new low – 41.4% – in Q1 2023. The same pattern repeated itself in both 2023 and 2024. So even though Q4 2024 saw a predictable visit decline, the first quarter of Q1 2025 may well set a new RTO record – especially given the slew of strict RTO mandates set to take effect in Q1 at companies like AT&T and Amazon.
Despite the ongoing recovery, the TGIF work week – which sees remote-capable employees concentrating office visits midweek and working remotely on Fridays – remains more firmly entrenched than ever.
In 2024, just 12.3% of office visits took place on Fridays – less than in 2022 (13.3%) and on par with 2023 (12.4%). Though Fridays were always popular vacation days – after all, why not take a long weekend if you can – this shift represents a significant departure from the pre-COVID norm, which saw Fridays accounting for 17.3% of weekday office visits.
Unsurprisingly, Tuesdays and Wednesdays remained the busiest in-office days of the week, followed by Thursdays. And Mondays saw a slight resurgence in visit share – up to 17.9% from 16.9% in 2023 – suggesting that as the RTO progresses, Manic Mondays are once again on the agenda.
Indeed, a closer look at year-over-five-year (Yo5Y) visit trends throughout the work week shows that on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, 2024 office foot traffic was down just 24.3% and 26.9%, respectively, compared to 2019 levels. The Thursday visit gap registered at 30.3%, while the Monday gap came in at 40.5%.
But on Fridays, offices were less than half as busy as they were in 2019 – with foot traffic down a substantial 53.2% compared to 2019.
Before COVID, long commutes on crowded subways, trains, and buses were a mainstay of the nine-to-five grind. But the rise of remote and hybrid work put a dent in rush hour traffic – leading to a substantial slowdown in the utilization of public transportation. As the office recovery continues to pick up steam, examining foot traffic patterns at major ground transportation commuting hubs, such as Penn Station in New York or Union Station in Washington, D.C., offers additional insight into the state of RTO.
Rush hour, for one thing – especially in the mornings – isn’t quite what it used to be. In 2024, overall visits to ground transportation hubs were down 25.0% compared to 2019. But during morning rush hour – weekdays between 6:00 AM and 9:00 AM – visits were down between 44.6% and 53.0%, with Fridays (53.0%) and Mondays (49.7%) seeing the steepest drops. Even as people return to the office, it seems, many may be coming in later – leaning into their biological clocks and getting more sleep. And with today’s office-goers less likely to be suburban commuters than in the past (see below), hubs like Penn Station aren’t as bustling first thing in the morning as they were pre-pandemic.
Evening rush hour, meanwhile, has been quicker to bounce back, with 2024 visit gaps ranging from 36.4% on Fridays to 30.0% on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. Office-goers likely form a smaller part of the late afternoon and evening rush hour crowd, which may include more travelers heading to a variety of places. And commuters going to work later in the day – including “coffee badgers” – may still be apt to head home between four and seven.
The drop in early-morning public transportation traffic may also be due to a shift in the geographical distribution of would-be commuters. Data from Placer.ai’s RTO dashboard shows that visits originating from areas closer to office locations have recovered faster than visits from farther away – indicating that people living closer to work are more likely to be back at their desks.
And analyzing the captured markets of major ground transportation hubs shows that the share of households from “Principal Urban Centers” (the most densely populated neighborhoods of the largest cities) rose substantially over the past five years. At the same time, the share of households from the “Suburban Periphery” dropped from 39.1% in 2019 to 32.7% in 2024. (A location’s captured market refers to the census block groups (CBGs) from which it draws its visitors, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each one – and thus reflects the profile of the location’s visitor base.)
This shift in the profile of public transportation consumers may explain the relatively slow recovery of morning transportation visits: City dwellers , who seem to be coming into the office more frequently than suburbanites, may not need to get as early a start to make it in on time.
While the RTO debate is often framed around employer and worker interests, what happens in the office doesn’t stay in the office. Office attendance levels leave their mark on everything from local real estate markets to nationwide relocation patterns. And industries from apparel to dining have undergone significant shifts in the face of evolving work routines.
Within the dining space, for example, fast-casual chains have always been workplace favorites. Offering quick, healthy, and inexpensive lunch options, these restaurants appeal to busy office workers seeking to fuel up during a long day at their desks.
Traditionally, the category has drawn a significant share of its traffic from workplaces. And after dropping during COVID, the share of visits to leading fast-casual brands coming from workplaces is once again on the rise.
In 2019, for example, 17.3% of visits to Chipotle came directly from workplaces, a share that fell to just 11.6% in 2022. But each year since, the share has increased – reaching 16.0% in 2024. Similar patterns have emerged at other segment leaders, including Jersey Mike’s Subs, Panda Express, and Five Guys. So as people increasingly go back to the office, they are also returning to their favorite lunch spots.
For many Americans, coffee is an integral part of the working day. So it may come as no surprise that shifting work routines are also reflected in visit patterns at leading coffee chains.
In 2019, 27.5% of visits to Dunkin’ and 20.1% of visits to Starbucks were immediately followed by a workplace visit, as many employees grabbed a cup of Joe on the way to work or popped out of the office for a midday coffee break. In the wake of COVID, this share dropped for both coffee leaders. But since 2022, it has been steadily rebounding – another sign of how the RTO is shaping consumer behavior beyond the office.
Five years after the pandemic upended work routines and supercharged the soft pants revolution, the office recovery story is still being written. Workplace attendance is still on the rise, and restaurants and coffee chains are in the process of reclaiming their roles as office mainstays. Still, office visit data and foot traffic patterns at commuting hubs show that the TGIF work week is holding firm – and that people aren’t coming in as early or from as far away as they used to. As new office mandates take effect in 2025, the office recovery and its ripple effects will remain a story to watch.
