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It’s been a wild ride for the beauty category. Following a strong couple of years, the segment's growth has stalled in recent months, with clothing – led by the strong performance of off-price chains – taking over the top discretionary growth spot. The slowdown in the beauty space has led some to wonder whether the category's boost from the "lipstick-effect" has reached a ceiling.
However, there are a few niches within the beauty category that may portend success, including Korean Beauty (aka K-Beauty), as well as brands focusing on personalization and sustainability.
First up, K-Beauty. Every summer, there is a song or movie that takes over the charts and goes viral. This summer, it is the unstoppable juggernaut from Netflix K-Pop Demon Hunters. Viewers and listeners around the world just can’t shake the catchy tunes like Soda Pop and the powerful anthem Golden. This animated feature is breaking records left and right: Netflix’s most-watched original animated film, first Netflix film ever to reach a new viewing peak in its fifth week of release showing the power of word of mouth, and the film’s lead single, “Golden,” sung by the girl group Huntrix (EJAE, Audrey Nuna and Rei Ami), hit No. 1 on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs on July 8th.
K-Pop has already been quite popular in the US for quite some time, with headliners like Blackpink and BTS drawing record crowds. Korean shows like Squid Game have also riveted viewers. And one of the most recent beauty trends on TikTok involves Korean beauty strategies to attain “glass skin.” Key ingredients in K-Beauty such as snail mucin in the holy grail product CosRX, green tea antioxidants, or ginseng have already made their way into many Americans’ daily skincare routines.
With all this recent interest in Korean culture, Ulta is one retailer perfectly poised to introduce its curated selection of K-beauty brands.
In mid-July, the company launched K-Beauty World, which introduces American consumers to a host of K-beauty brands, such as Chasin’ Rabbits, I’m From, Mixsoon, NEOGEN, Rom&nd, Some By Mi, Sungboon Editor and Unleashia. K-Beauty World had an immersive multi-city tour earlier this year including Westfield Century City in Los Angeles, SXSW in Austin, Revolve at Coachella, and Lollapalooza in Chicago. And since the launch, Ulta has drawn longer visits and a higher share of singles to its stores.
Personalization is another big buzzword in the beauty world. With over a dozen stores across the US and Canada, Lip Lab is one beauty chain that allows patrons to customize their products (lipstick, gloss, balm or cheek stick), pick their perfect shade, select a case, add a scent, and engrave the name of their creation. In the case of Lip Lab at Scottsdale Quarter, Spatial.ai’s PersonaLive's dataset shows that this tenant helps to attract Wealthy Suburban Families and Young Urban Singles to a shopping center that otherwise skews a bit older – usually, Sunset Boomers make up over one-fifth of Scottsdale Quarter's shoppers.
In sum, beauty is ever-changing and consumers can be quite fickle. What was once a must-have brand with tweens or a sold-out item on BeautyTok can quickly become yesterday’s news. However, for the year ahead, we do think that K-beauty and personalization can help brands burst through the zeitgeist to capture consumers’ attention.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Although headlines often highlight a decline in alcohol consumption – particularly among younger generations – the data paints a more nuanced picture, with liquor store traffic remaining well above pre-pandemic baselines. So how has BevAlc consumer behavior changed since 2019? And where is traffic still growing year-over-year? We dove into the data to find out.
As shown in the left-hand chart below, visits to BevAlc chains skyrocketed since 2018, with traffic hovering 40 to 60% above Q1 ’19 – a significantly larger increase than that seen in the wider grocery sector as a whole. But the year-over-year growth has largely flattened, as seen in the right-hand chart, with overall grocery traffic now seeing higher year-over-year growth in H1 2025.
Taken together, these two charts suggest that BevAlc remains a core part of consumers' shopping mix – even if the explosive, pandemic-era acceleration has stabilized into a new normal.
And although BevAlc visits nationwide have flattened, visitation data highlights regional pockets of BevAlc growth. Florida metros such as Port St. Lucie, Sebastian–Vero Beach, and Homosassa Springs posted some of the strongest year-over-year gains, supported by population inflows and steady tourism activity. Similar momentum appeared in select Southern markets, including parts of Texas and the Carolinas.
Meanwhile, many Northeastern and West Coast markets experienced steady pullbacks. Pennsylvania metros like Sunbury, Johnstown, and Erie registered consistent declines, while California hubs including Sacramento, Modesto, and Stockton saw negative traffic trends as well.
This divergence suggests that national averages mask meaningful local variation: while consumers overall are steady in their liquor purchases, certain regions are emerging as growth hubs while others cool.
The opportunity in BevAlc retail now isn't in chasing broad national growth, but in aligning with regional demand dynamics. In Florida and Texas, where visitation is climbing, retailers can lean into assortment expansion, premium products, and in-store promotions to capture incremental spend. In slower markets like California and the Northeast, focusing on loyalty programs, distribution through grocery stores, and smaller format stores that emphasize convenience and value might yield better results.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
It’s that time again. The time where I share my thoughts on everything I think I think about retail...at this very moment.
Over the first nine months of 2025, we have witnessed some pretty darn amazing things across the retail industry. We've witnessed traditional competitive boundaries blur as some large scale grocery players (at least, one that is one and one that wants to be one) venture into same-day delivery logistics, we’ve seen warehouse clubs reimagine convenience, and we have also had more than one retailer experiment with what the right size of its store footprint should be.
What emerges from this chaos is a revalidation of what omnichannel retailing really is. It is about the reimagining of how consumers shop, where they shop, and why they choose to shop one retailer over another.
Therefore, the following observations represent not just trends to watch, but strategic inflection points that could determine which retailers will have the greatest probability to thrive going forward in this beautiful and increasingly complex omnichannel world.
In Q2 2025, Walmart delivered comparable sales growth of +4.5% (excluding fuel), driven largely by profitable e-commerce, and maintained stable store traffic. Monthly same-store visits, according to Placer.ai, were also remarkably steady between +0.7% and -1.8%, from May through August, amid industry-wide macroeconomic pressures.
Meanwhile, the other U.S. retailing behemoth, Amazon, began pushing (or is it forcing?) its way into grocery in August by way of same-day delivery. Walmart, on the flip side, and not to be outdone, also began putting significant resources behind its Walmart Fulfillment Services offering.
All told, it is a game of anything you can do, I can do better. It is one-upmanship at its finest.
The only question is – who stands the better chance of winning? Or at least drawing blood from the other?
From my vantage point, Walmart has a much better chance of holding onto its grocery reign because it already is a grocer, and quite a large one at that – drawing nearly half as many visits as the entire brick-and-mortar grocery category. Walmart’s 4,600+ store advantage is sizable. Amazon may take from others but the moat around Walmart is pretty large.
On the other hand, will Amazon keep a similar hold on its vendor logistics business?
If I were a betting man, Walmart has a better chance of making inroads on Amazon’s logistics revenue than Amazon has on hurting Walmart in grocery.
Said another way, I guess the box may soon be on the other porch, Amazon.
The size of one’s store base is dependent upon so many factors.
Location, the overall experience design, the ROI of “the box,” and more can all impact the size and shape of a retailer’s store base, and, more often than not, all of them actually work in concert together. Which is why anyone pontificating on the trend in the “size” of stores likely hasn’t put much thought into his or her argument.
Despite the recent run-up of retailers trying to get smaller (Macy’s, in particular, comes to mind), there is no tried-and-true rule that smaller stores will work or vice versa.
In some cases, like in dense or urban markets, smaller stores might work, while in others, if the approach is one of creating destination-type stores, like Hy-Vee or Buc-ees, larger stores might work, too.
My favorite example of someone “getting smaller” is Sprouts. As Sprouts CEO Jack Sinclair told me at Groceryshop, Sprouts realized its format had gotten too large, went back to its roots of differentiated products and great looking fresh produce in a smaller box, and has not looked back since.
At the end of the day – smaller, bigger, uncut – none of it matters as much as what your brand is trying to accomplish for your customers and what, in turn, resonates with them the most.
I think we can all agree that, generally speaking, Walmart and the warehouse clubs are noted for having great prices. On the flip side, what they haven’t been known as much for in the past is a quick and convenient shopping experience.
But that is about to change for two reasons.
The first is economics. There is always a trade-off between convenience and price. As budgets continue to get constrained, people will begin to trade off waiting in lines or navigating the dreaded Costco parking lot to save money.
The second is the evolution of these retailers as omnichannel retailers. For example, Walmart’s Chief E-Commerce Officer David Guggina told me recently that one-third of Walmart’s scheduled deliveries are delivered to Walmart customers in under three hours (see video of interview). This behavior itself gives rise to the theory that people are starting to leverage Walmart for quick trips.
Delivery is only one leg of the omnichannel stool, however.
The other two legs are buy online, pickup in-store (BOPIS) and the actual speed of the in-store experience itself. Much has been documented already about the rise of BOPIS following the pandemic, so I won’t belabor the point here because it, too, is likely driving the data below.
The other aspect is that places like Sam’s Club have done a masterful job of making their stores more convenient and time-efficient. Sam’s Club is leading the way on cashierless checkout in the club channel. Sam’s Club Scan & Go shoppers, which account for an amazing one-third of the Sam’s Club customer base, can simply walk through an AI-powered exit arch and then have a digital receipt sent to them upon exit.
Allow me to take a moment to put this last statement into perspective with a concrete example.
Pretend my wife calls me on my way home from work and asks me to pick up some milk. I have a choice: Do I go to the local grocer or do I go to Sam’s? If I decide to go local, I likely will end up paying more ,and I could also possibly have to wait in line to check out at either a manned till or a self-checkout machine. On the other hand, if I go to Sam’s Club, I can just walk in, scan the milk I want, pay at a paystation and then walk through the arch.
Which experience would you choose?
Enough said.
The number one answer any retailer needs to answer in today’s omnichannel world is, “Why come to my store in the first place.”
And that answer begins and ends with good merchandising.
Take a look at some of the more creative merchandising efforts this year as depicted in the graph below:
What they all have in common is a “hook.” Someone got creative and went outside of the box to compel customers into their stores for new and exciting reasons. It is the definition of good merchandising.
Therefore, retailers, convenience store operators, and QSRs can never rest on their laurels. They constantly need to push the envelope to one-up the year before and the competition.
The best merchants get supercharged by the creative demands of this challenge. The worst merchants get their answers from interpolating spreadsheets and making decisions solely off of last year’s data.
Speaking of merchandising, the convergence of technology and the increasing tendency of consumers to use supermarkets as their mid-day lunch or snack source versus QSRs could inspire a unique opportunity for those grocers adventurous enough to seize it.
I have long been a proponent of electronic shelf labels. The use cases in support of them are almost endless at this point. One of my favorite use cases is the ability to run intra-day promotions, an idea that is virtually impossible with paper price tags, and one that also gets supercharged when the component of in-store digital media screens gets added to the equation as well.
Imagine a grocer who uses electronic shelf labels and then starts running unique daily promotions at lunch time. These promotions could be done on ANYTHING:
You get the idea. It is the Venn diagram of retail media and in-store execution at its finest.
The convergence of these above trends signals a tried-and-true retail axiom, i.e. that success is determined not by what you sell per se, but by how you can integrate convenience, value, and your brand (a better word choice than experience) across every touchpoint.
And this axiom will manifest itself in a number of self-affirming, yet sizable ways.
First, as the Walmart/Amazon tête-à-tête illustrates, a single channel advantage will become almost impossible to defend. Retailers need to decide in which channels they want to speak to their customers or risk being outflanked by competitors who will. This creates both vulnerability for established players and opportunities for agile newcomers who can build omnichannel capabilities from the ground up.
Second, technology will play an even bigger role as the industry equalizer. The Sam's Club scan-and-go example is the perfect encapsulation of this idea. It shows how technology can completely flip traditional competitive dynamics. Warehouse clubs, once seen as inconvenient despite their pricing advantages, are at the tipping point of becoming more convenient (and value-laden) than traditional grocers. Retailers who boldly invest in finding new ways to use technology to flip their positioning on the convenience-value-brand spectrum stand to capture disproportionate market share, regardless of their historical positioning.
Third, merchandising is and will forever be the epicenter of retailing. As physical store differentiation becomes harder to achieve, creative merchandising becomes the primary weapon for driving foot traffic and brand loyalty. Retailers who cannot consistently surprise and delight customers with consistent in-stocks, innovative in-store displays, exciting product collaborations, and limited-time offerings will find themselves relegated to utility shopping only, which is about as big as a “Danger Will Robinson” position as there is.
As I look back on 2025, Walmart, hands down, is “winning.” Sure, it has scale. It is the biggest retailer going. But scale isn’t why Walmart is on the hot streak that it is. The real secret to Walmart’s success has been its incredible speed of adaptation, rather than the scale of its operation. Its scale only enhances the impact of successful adaptation.
That is the real punchline to the joke.
What got you here won’t get you there. The task at hand is to transform fast enough to remain relevant in a world where the rules of engagement are being rewritten all the time, by competitors both large and small.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
2025 has been a year of comebacks for legacy retailers. Brands like Barnes & Noble, Gap, and Abercrombie & Fitch are seeing renewed momentum. And amid this wave of revivals, Beyond, Inc. and The Brand House Collective (formerly Kirkland’s Inc.) are betting on one of retail’s most iconic banners: Bed Bath & Beyond (BBB).
After acquiring Kirkland’s intellectual property, Beyond Inc. plans to rebrand 250–275 Kirkland’s stores as Bed Bath & Beyond Home and close the rest. The strategy aims to merge Kirkland’s real estate footprint with the trust and recognition of BBB – once the undisputed leader in home furnishings retail. Can the pull of nostalgia and the equity of a trusted brand rewrite the trajectory of a struggling home furnishings chain?
Kirkland’s, known for accessible home décor and furnishings, has long been a staple of the home furnishings sector. Yet like many of its peers, it has grappled with headwinds from softening discretionary spending. Since 2019, overall visits to the chain have steadily declined as the company downsized its store fleet – and most months of 2025 have continued to register year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic declines. Online performance has also lagged, with digital comparable sales dropping last quarter by double digits.
Still, the data also reveals signs of underlying brick-and-mortar strength. Over the past several quarters, Kirkland’s in-store comparable sales have remained relatively stable, with some quarters seeing slight increases and others modest declines. And as illustrated by the chart below, the chain’s reduced fleet has posted modest same-store visit gains through much of this year, suggesting that the company’s remaining stores may be well-positioned for a turnaround.
Against this backdrop, plans to merge Kirkland’s real estate footprint with the trust and recognition of BBB offer significant promise. The pie chart below offers a reminder of just how influential Bed Bath & Beyond once was: In 2019, BBB accounted for nearly one-fourth of all visits to the home furnishings sector nationwide, far outpacing rivals. While the company’s bankruptcy in 2023 suggested that brand power alone couldn’t offset operational missteps, the name still carries significant weight with consumers. For Kirkland’s, this partnership could provide the spark it needs for renewed growth.
The combination of Kirkland’s streamlined fleet and BBB’s brand equity creates a compelling recipe for revival. With the right execution – balancing nostalgia with modern retail practices – this collaboration could transform a fading chain into a leader once more.
To see up-to-date retail traffic trends, visit our free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Homewares and home decor chains have seen their share of ups and downs over the past few years, from pandemic highs to a discretionary retail slowdown – but some chains, especially high-end ones, are thriving. We took a look at visit data to four retailers – Restoration Hardware (RH), Le Creuset, and Sur La Table – to see what the visit data and demographics reveal about the segment.
Homewares are having a cultural moment – a shift that first gained momentum during the pandemic, when people stuck at home began investing deeply in their living spaces. Since then, social media’s influence has helped lifestyle-forward brands like RH and Le Creuset gain cultural cachet – and visits to these retailers have significantly outpaced the broader home improvement sector, as shown in the chart below.
This resilience – especially amid a broader retail slowdown – underscores how home decor and kitchenware are evolving into status and lifestyle symbols, with culinary aesthetics even finding expression in decor trends.
Although RH, Sur La Table, and Le Creuset all compete in the premium home goods segment, their different brand identities attract distinct audiences and lead to very different in-store behaviors.
RH and Sur La Table attract some of the most affluent, luxury-oriented shoppers in retail and consistently post long dwell times. Both brands use their store fleets not just as showrooms, but as platforms for high-margin services and experiences that extend engagement and drive revenue between product cycles.
Many flagship RH stores include a fine-dining restaurant, and the chain ties complimentary design consultations to a paid annual membership – both of which may resonate with younger “Educated Urbanites” who value elevated dining experiences and expert guidance as they furnish their first homes. Sur La Table, by contrast, generates fee-based revenue from cooking classes and curated international culinary trips, offerings that appeal most to “Booming with Confidence” households – prosperous, established couples eager to invest in premium food and travel experiences. By tailoring experiential services to the distinct aspirations of their core audiences, RH and Sur La Table demonstrate how luxury retailers can extend brand relevance, and sustain growth beyond traditional product sales.
Le Creuset, by contrast, follows a more sales-driven model. With a lower share of high-income households, the brand reaches aspirational, luxury-adjacent shoppers who may have less discretionary income for premium experiences. Store activations such as Factory-to-Table events are designed primarily to drive transactions rather than prolong visits. Le Creuset also over-indexes among “Singles and Starters” – younger, upwardly mobile shoppers who frequently discover the brand on social media. This group tends to conduct heavy online research before visiting, leading to shorter, purpose-driven trips where shoppers arrive ready to buy.
Together, the patterns suggest two distinct playbooks: RH and Sur La Table use experience to lengthen visits and monetize engagement between product cycles, while Le Creuset relies on highly considered, research-led purchases that translate into shorter, purpose-driven store trips.
The success of RH, Sur La Table, and Le Creuset highlights that there is no single formula for winning in luxury retail. Some brands lean on immersive experiences that extend and monetize engagement. Others focus on sales-driven activations that convert researched shoppers. What unites them is a sharp alignment between strategy and the values and behaviors of their core audiences – a positioning that enables them to thrive even amid broader retail headwinds.
For more retail data, visit our free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The recent revival of McDonald’s Extra Value Meal has fueled speculation that the quick-service restaurant (QSR) space might be gearing up for another round of value wars. Yet the data suggests that basic value offerings may no longer be enough to reliably drive traffic. To overcome consumer fatigue and heightened price sensitivity, brands must deliver promotions that truly stand out – whether through unusually deep discounts, memorable giveaways, or culturally resonant collaborations.
McDonald’s recent foot traffic trends illustrate this dynamic. Despite the chain’s Extra Value Meals relaunch, visits to McDonald’s dropped 4.4% year over year (YoY) during the week of September 8th and fell a further 5.2% and 3.7% over the next two weeks. These results pale in comparison to the brand’s April 2025 Minecraft Movie Meal collaboration, which generated consistent traffic boosts throughout its run.
The muted YoY impact of the new value meal doesn’t necessarily signal failure – after all, McDonald’s is lapping last year’s $5 Summer of Value campaign, which extended through 2024. But it highlights the limits of standard deals in a marketplace where consumers expect baseline value from QSR leaders. In an environment crowded with offerings – from Taco Bell’s Luxe Boxes, to Wendy’s Biggie Bags and Burger King’s 2 for $5 promotions – incremental savings feel less like innovation and more like table stakes.
Still, truly eye-catching promotions continue to break through – and McDonald’s 50-cent Double Cheeseburger deal on National Cheeseburger Day (September 18th, 2025) is a case in point. On the day of the promotion, visits jumped 6.4% compared to the chain’s recent Thursday average – showing that consumers remain highly responsive to promotions that feel unique and unmissable.
Pizza Hut’s summer promotions tell a similar story. The chain’s $2-Buck Tuesday deal, which offered a one-topping Personal Pan Pizza for just $2, drove a remarkable 63.2% YoY surge in Tuesday visits during its run (July 8th through August 26th, 2025). And although foot traffic continued to decline on other days of the week, the promotion’s Tuesday lift was enough to push overall weekly visits into positive territory for much of its duration.
Yet when Pizza Hut followed up with a more conventional $5 Crafted Flatzz menu in late August – available all week long until 5:00 PM – the response was far less dramatic. Though traffic held steady YoY during the first weeks of the launch, and the brand’s YoY visit gap has remained somewhat narrower since, consumers clearly differentiated between a “can’t-miss” deal and a “reasonable” discount.
Dairy Queen provides further illustration of both the power and the limits of value promotions in 2025. The chain’s annual Free Cone Day, held at the start of spring, generated an astonishing 326.7% spike in visits on Thursday, March 20th compared to the prior same-day average. The deal even outperformed 2024’s Free Cone Day, boosting weekly traffic 23.8% YoY despite lapping last year’s March 19th event. And an 85-cent Blizzard deal the following week extended the surge, lifting visits 31.2% YoY.
But when Dairy Queen relaunched the same 85-cent Blizzard offer in September (September 8th to 21st, 2025), results were far more muted. Seasonality likely played a role – ice cream naturally peaks in spring and summer, and wanes in colder weather. But repetition also dulls impact, and without the momentum of a free giveaway just days before, the fall promotion may have felt more routine.
The mixed results of McDonald’s, Pizza Hut, and Dairy Queen’s 2025 promotions show that standard value menus are no longer enough to stand out in today’s price-sensitive QSR market. The most effective deals offer consumers something they can’t get anywhere else – whether freebies, unusually deep discounts, or resonant pop-culture tie-ins. For QSRs, the challenge is to capture attention and disrupt routines without eroding margins through unsustainable discounting.
For more QSR insights, explore Placer.ai’s free industry trends tool.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Starbucks. Amazon. Barclays. AT&T. UPS. These are just some of the major corporations that have made waves in recent months with return-to-office (RTO) mandates requiring employees to show up in person more often – some of them five days a week.
But how are crackdowns like these taking shape on the ground? Is the office recovery still underway, or has it run its course? And how are evolving in-office work patterns impacting commuting hubs and dining trends? This white paper dives into the data to assess the state of office recovery in 2024 – and to explore what lies ahead for the sector in 2025.
In 2024, office foot traffic continued its slow upward climb, with visits to the Placer.ai Office Index down just 34.3% compared to 2019. (In other words, visits to the Placer.ai Office Index were 65.7% of their pre-COVID levels). And zooming in on year-over-year (YoY) trends reveals that office visits grew by 10.0% in 2024 compared to 2023 – showing that employee (and manager) pushback notwithstanding, the RTO is still very much taking place.
Indeed, diving into quarterly office visit fluctuations since Q4 2019 shows that office visits have been on a slow, steady upward trajectory since Q2 2020, following – at least since 2022 – a fairly consistent seasonal pattern. In Q1, Q2, and Q3 of each year, office visit levels increased steadily before dipping in holiday-heavy Q4 – only to recover to an even higher start-of-year baseline in the following Q1.
Between Q1 and Q3 2022, for example, the post pandemic office visit gap (compared to a Q4 2019 baseline) narrowed from 63.1% to 47.5%. It then widened temporarily in Q4 before reaching a new low – 41.4% – in Q1 2023. The same pattern repeated itself in both 2023 and 2024. So even though Q4 2024 saw a predictable visit decline, the first quarter of Q1 2025 may well set a new RTO record – especially given the slew of strict RTO mandates set to take effect in Q1 at companies like AT&T and Amazon.
Despite the ongoing recovery, the TGIF work week – which sees remote-capable employees concentrating office visits midweek and working remotely on Fridays – remains more firmly entrenched than ever.
In 2024, just 12.3% of office visits took place on Fridays – less than in 2022 (13.3%) and on par with 2023 (12.4%). Though Fridays were always popular vacation days – after all, why not take a long weekend if you can – this shift represents a significant departure from the pre-COVID norm, which saw Fridays accounting for 17.3% of weekday office visits.
Unsurprisingly, Tuesdays and Wednesdays remained the busiest in-office days of the week, followed by Thursdays. And Mondays saw a slight resurgence in visit share – up to 17.9% from 16.9% in 2023 – suggesting that as the RTO progresses, Manic Mondays are once again on the agenda.
Indeed, a closer look at year-over-five-year (Yo5Y) visit trends throughout the work week shows that on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, 2024 office foot traffic was down just 24.3% and 26.9%, respectively, compared to 2019 levels. The Thursday visit gap registered at 30.3%, while the Monday gap came in at 40.5%.
But on Fridays, offices were less than half as busy as they were in 2019 – with foot traffic down a substantial 53.2% compared to 2019.
Before COVID, long commutes on crowded subways, trains, and buses were a mainstay of the nine-to-five grind. But the rise of remote and hybrid work put a dent in rush hour traffic – leading to a substantial slowdown in the utilization of public transportation. As the office recovery continues to pick up steam, examining foot traffic patterns at major ground transportation commuting hubs, such as Penn Station in New York or Union Station in Washington, D.C., offers additional insight into the state of RTO.
Rush hour, for one thing – especially in the mornings – isn’t quite what it used to be. In 2024, overall visits to ground transportation hubs were down 25.0% compared to 2019. But during morning rush hour – weekdays between 6:00 AM and 9:00 AM – visits were down between 44.6% and 53.0%, with Fridays (53.0%) and Mondays (49.7%) seeing the steepest drops. Even as people return to the office, it seems, many may be coming in later – leaning into their biological clocks and getting more sleep. And with today’s office-goers less likely to be suburban commuters than in the past (see below), hubs like Penn Station aren’t as bustling first thing in the morning as they were pre-pandemic.
Evening rush hour, meanwhile, has been quicker to bounce back, with 2024 visit gaps ranging from 36.4% on Fridays to 30.0% on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. Office-goers likely form a smaller part of the late afternoon and evening rush hour crowd, which may include more travelers heading to a variety of places. And commuters going to work later in the day – including “coffee badgers” – may still be apt to head home between four and seven.
The drop in early-morning public transportation traffic may also be due to a shift in the geographical distribution of would-be commuters. Data from Placer.ai’s RTO dashboard shows that visits originating from areas closer to office locations have recovered faster than visits from farther away – indicating that people living closer to work are more likely to be back at their desks.
And analyzing the captured markets of major ground transportation hubs shows that the share of households from “Principal Urban Centers” (the most densely populated neighborhoods of the largest cities) rose substantially over the past five years. At the same time, the share of households from the “Suburban Periphery” dropped from 39.1% in 2019 to 32.7% in 2024. (A location’s captured market refers to the census block groups (CBGs) from which it draws its visitors, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each one – and thus reflects the profile of the location’s visitor base.)
This shift in the profile of public transportation consumers may explain the relatively slow recovery of morning transportation visits: City dwellers , who seem to be coming into the office more frequently than suburbanites, may not need to get as early a start to make it in on time.
While the RTO debate is often framed around employer and worker interests, what happens in the office doesn’t stay in the office. Office attendance levels leave their mark on everything from local real estate markets to nationwide relocation patterns. And industries from apparel to dining have undergone significant shifts in the face of evolving work routines.
Within the dining space, for example, fast-casual chains have always been workplace favorites. Offering quick, healthy, and inexpensive lunch options, these restaurants appeal to busy office workers seeking to fuel up during a long day at their desks.
Traditionally, the category has drawn a significant share of its traffic from workplaces. And after dropping during COVID, the share of visits to leading fast-casual brands coming from workplaces is once again on the rise.
In 2019, for example, 17.3% of visits to Chipotle came directly from workplaces, a share that fell to just 11.6% in 2022. But each year since, the share has increased – reaching 16.0% in 2024. Similar patterns have emerged at other segment leaders, including Jersey Mike’s Subs, Panda Express, and Five Guys. So as people increasingly go back to the office, they are also returning to their favorite lunch spots.
For many Americans, coffee is an integral part of the working day. So it may come as no surprise that shifting work routines are also reflected in visit patterns at leading coffee chains.
In 2019, 27.5% of visits to Dunkin’ and 20.1% of visits to Starbucks were immediately followed by a workplace visit, as many employees grabbed a cup of Joe on the way to work or popped out of the office for a midday coffee break. In the wake of COVID, this share dropped for both coffee leaders. But since 2022, it has been steadily rebounding – another sign of how the RTO is shaping consumer behavior beyond the office.
Five years after the pandemic upended work routines and supercharged the soft pants revolution, the office recovery story is still being written. Workplace attendance is still on the rise, and restaurants and coffee chains are in the process of reclaiming their roles as office mainstays. Still, office visit data and foot traffic patterns at commuting hubs show that the TGIF work week is holding firm – and that people aren’t coming in as early or from as far away as they used to. As new office mandates take effect in 2025, the office recovery and its ripple effects will remain a story to watch.
Many retail and dining chains performed well in 2024 despite the ongoing economic uncertainty. But with the consumer headwinds continuing into 2025, which brands can continue pulling ahead of the pack?
This report highlights 10 brands (in no particular order) that exhibit significant potential to grow in 2025 – as well as three chains that have faced some challenges in 2024 but appear poised to make a comeback in the year ahead. Which chains made the cut? Dive into the report to find out.
Through 2024, visits to Sprouts Farmers Market locations increased an average of 7.2% year-over-year (YoY) each month, outpacing the wider grocery segment standard by an average of six percentage points. And not only were visits up – monthly visits per location also grew YoY.
The promising coupling of overall and visits per location growth seems driven by the brands’ powerful understanding of who they are and what they bring to the market. The focus on high quality, fresh products is resonating, and the utilization of small- format locations is empowering the chain to bring locations to the doorstep of their ideal audiences.
This combination of forces positions the brand to better identify and reach key markets efficiently, offering an ideal path to continued growth. The result is a recipe for ongoing grocery success.
CAVA has emerged as a standout success story in the restaurant industry over the past several years. Traditionally, Mediterranean concepts have not commanded the same level of demand as burger, sandwich, Mexican, or Asian fast-casual concepts, which is why the category lacked a true national player until CAVA's rise. However, evolving consumer tastes have created a fertile landscape for Mediterranean cuisine to thrive, driven by factors such as social media influence, expanded food options via third-party delivery, growing demand for healthier choices, the rise of food-focused television programming, and the globalization of restaurant concepts .
CAVA’s success can be attributed to several key factors. Roughly 80% of CAVA locations were in suburban areas before the pandemic, aligning well with consumer migration and work-from-home trends. Additionally, CAVA was an early adopter of digital drive-thru lanes, similar to Chipotle’s "Chipotlanes," and began developing these store formats well before the pandemic. The brand has also utilized innovative tools like motion sensors in its restaurants to optimize throughput and staffing during peak lunchtime hours, enabling it to refine restaurant design and equipment placement as it expanded. CAVA’s higher employee retention rates have also contributed to its ability to maintain speed-of-service levels above category averages.
These strengths allowed CAVA to successfully enter new markets like Chicago in 2024. While many emerging brands have struggled to gain traction in new areas, CAVA’s visit-per-location metrics in recently entered markets have matched its national averages, positioning the brand for continued growth in 2025.
Ashley’s recent strategy shift to differentiate itself through experiential events, such as live music, workshops, and giveaways, is a compelling approach in the challenging consumer discretionary category. Post-pandemic, commercial property owners have successfully used community events to boost visit frequency, dwell time, and trade area size for mall properties. It’s no surprise that retailers like Ashley are adopting similar strategies to engage customers and enhance their in-store experience.
The decision to incorporate live events into its marketing strategy reflects the growing demand for experiential and immersive retail experiences. While home furnishings saw a surge in demand during the pandemic, the category has struggled over the past two years, underperforming other discretionary retail sectors compared to pre-pandemic levels. Recognizing this challenge, Ashley’s rebrand focuses on creating interactive and memorable experiences that allow customers to engage directly with its products and explore various design possibilities. In turn, this has helped to drive visits from trade areas with younger consumers with lower household incomes.
Ashley has leaned into collaborations with interior designers and industry experts to offer informative sessions and workshops during these events. These initiatives not only attract traffic but also provide valuable insights into customers’ preferences, which can be used to refine product offerings, enhance customer service, and shape future marketing efforts. This approach is particularly relevant as millennials and Gen Z drive new household formation. While still early, Ashley’s pivot to live events is showing promising results in attracting visits and increasing customer engagement.
Department stores have had many challenges in navigating changing consumer behavior and finding their place in an evolving retail landscape. Nordstrom, an example of department store success in 2024, has been able to maintain a strong brand relationship with its shoppers and regain its footing with its store fleet. While the chain has certainly benefited from catering to a more affluent, and less price sensitive, consumer base, it still shines in fostering a shopping experience that stands out.
Value might be a driver of retail visitation across the industry, but for Nordstrom, service and experience is paramount. The retailer has downplayed promotional activity in favor of driving loyalty among key visitors. Nordstrom also has captured higher shares of high-value, younger consumer segments, which defies commonly held thoughts about department stores. The chain was a top visited chain during Black Friday in 2024, showcasing that it’s top of mind for shoppers for both gift giving and self-gifting.
What’s next? Nordstrom announced at the end of December that it plans to go private with the help of Mexican retail chain Liverpool. We expect to see even more innovation in store experience, assortments and services with this newfound flexibility and investment. And, we cannot forget about Nordstrom Rack, which allows the retailer to still engage price-conscious shoppers of all income levels, which is certainly still a bright spot as we head into 2025.
Visits are up, and the audience visiting Sam’s Club locations seems to be getting younger which – when taken together – tells us a few critical things. First, Sam’s Club has parlayed its pandemic resurgence into something longer term, leveraging the value and experience it provides to create loyal customers. Second, the power of its offering is attracting a newer audience that had previously been less apt to take advantage of the unique Sam’s Club benefits.
The result is a retailer that is proving particularly adept at understanding the value of a visit. The membership club model incentives loyalty which means that once a visitor takes the plunge, the likelihood of more visits is heightened significantly. And the orientation to value, a longer visit duration, and a wide array of items on sale leads to a larger than normal basket size.
In a retail segment where the value of loyalty and owning ‘share of shopping list’ is at a premium, Sam’s Club is positioned for the type of success that builds a foundation for strength for years to come.
Raising Cane’s exemplifies the power of focus by excelling at a simple menu done exceptionally well. Over the past several years, the chain has been one of the fastest-growing in the QSR segment, driven by a streamlined menu that enhances speed and efficiency, innovative marketing campaigns, and strategic site selection in both new and existing markets. Notably, Raising Cane’s ranked among the top QSR chains for visit-per-location growth last year. Unlike many competitors that leaned on deep discounts or nostalgic product launches to boost traffic in 2024, Raising Cane’s relied on operational excellence to build brand awareness and drive visits. This approach has translated into some of the highest average unit sales in the segment, with restaurants averaging around $6 million in sales last year.
Raising Cane’s operational efficiency has also been a key driver of its rapid expansion, growing from 460 locations at the end of 2019 to more than 830 heading into 2025. This includes over 100 new store openings in 2024 alone, placing it among the top QSR chains for year-over-year visit growth. The chain’s ability to maintain exceptional performance while scaling rapidly highlights its strong foundation and operational strategy.
While Life Time has fitness at its core, it has also expanded to become a lifestyle. Healthy living is its mantra and this extends to both the gym aspect, but also the social health of its members with offerings like yoga, childcare, personalized fitness programs, coworking, and even an option for luxury living just steps away.
With all these choices, it’s no wonder that its members are more loyal than others in its peer group.
To the delight of book lovers everywhere, Barnes & Noble is back in force. With a presence in every single state and approximately 600 stores, location options are growing to browse bestsellers, chat with in-store bibliophiles, or grab a latte. Stores are feeling cozier and more local, with handwritten recommendations across the store. The chain’s extensive selection of gifts and toys mean that one can stop in for more than just books. The membership program is also relaunching, rewarding members for their purchases. Even though some locations have downsized, efficiency is up with average visits per square foot increasing over the last 3 years. Customers are also lingering, with nearly 3 in 10 visitors staying 45 minutes or longer.
With options for a “third place” that’s not home or work dwindling, Barnes & Noble is poised to fill that hole.
From its origins as a corner grocery store in Queens, NY 42 years ago, H Mart now boasts over 80 stores throughout the US. Shoppers are enticed by the aroma of hot roasted sweet potatoes wafting through the store, the opportunities to try new brands like Little Jasmine fruit teas, and the array of prepared foods such as gimbap and japchae. In addition to traditional Korean, Chinese, and Japanese groceries, H Mart’s assortment has expanded to staple items and American brands as well like Chobani yogurt or Doritos.
As the Hallyu wave sweeps across the nation and K-pop stars like Rose top the charts for the eight straight week with the catchy “APT”, so too is the appetite for Asian food. At the second-most visited H Mart in the nation in Carrollton, TX, the ethnic makeup of customers is 39% White, 14% Black, 23% Hispanic or Latino, and 20% Asian – reflecting the truly universal appeal of this supermarket chain.
Beauty retail had a transformative 2024, with a general cooling off in demand for the category. Competition between chains has increased and delivering quality products, expertise and services is critical to maintain visits. Against this backdrop, Bluemercury stands out as a shining star in parent company Macy’s portfolio of brands, with the brand well positioned to take on this next chapter of beauty retail.
Bluemercury’s success lies in its ability to be a retailer, an expert, and a spa service provider to its consumers. Placer data has shown that beauty chains with a service and retail component tend to attract more visitors than those who just specialize in retail offerings, and Bluemercury is no exception. The chain also focuses solely on the prestige market within the beauty industry and caters to higher income households compared to the broader beauty category; both of those factors have contributed to more elastic demand than with other retailers.
Bluemercury’s bet on product expertise and knowledge combined with a smaller format store help to foster a strong connection between the beauty retailer and its consumers. The brand overindexes with visitors “seeking youthful appearance” and has cemented itself as a destination for niche and emerging beauty brands. As the larger Macy’s brand grapples with its transformation, Bluemercury’s relevance and deep connection to its consumer base can serve as an inspiration, especially as the beauty industry faces mounting uncertainty.
Competitors like Dutch Bros and 7Brew are on the rise, critical office visitation patterns remain far behind pre-pandemic levels, and the chain did not end the year in the most amazing way in terms of visit performance. But there is still so much to love about Starbucks – and the addition of new CEO Brian Niccol positions the coffee giant to rebound powerfully.
The focused attention on leaning into its legendary ‘third place’ concept is in excellent alignment with the shift to the suburbs and hybrid work and with audiences that continue to show they value experience over convenience. But the convenience-oriented customer will likely also benefit from the brand’s recent initiatives, including pushes to improve staffing, mobile ordering alignment and menu simplification. In addition, the brand is still the gold standard when it comes to owning the calendar, as seen with their annual visit surges for the release of the Pumpkin Spice Latte or Red Cup Day and their ability to capitalize on wider retail holidays like Black Friday and Super Saturday.
The combination of the tremendous reach, brand equity, remaining opportunities in growing markets and the combined ability to address both convenience and experience oriented customers speaks to a unique capacity to regain lost ground and drive a significant resurgence against the expectations of many.
Retail has had its challenges this year, with many consumers opting for off-price to snag deals – but the strength of the Adidas brand should not be underestimated. Gazelles and Sambas are still highly coveted, and a partnership with Messi x Bad Bunny racked up over a million likes. Consumers are favoring classic silhouettes across both shoes and clothing, and nothing says classic like those three stripes.
Gap, and its family of brands including Old Navy and Banana Republic, are synonymous with American apparel retail. The namesake brand has always been at the center of comfort, value and style, but over time lost its way with consumers. However, over the past year and a half, the reinvigoration of the Gap family of brands has started to take shape under the direction of CEO Richard Dickson.
New designs, collaborations, splashy marketing campaigns and store layouts have taken shape across the portfolio. While we haven’t seen a lot of change in visitation to stores over the past year, trends are certainly moving in the right direction and outpacing many other brands in the apparel space. Gap has also reinserted itself into the fabric of American fashion this past year with designs for the Met Gala.
The benefit of Gap Inc.’s portfolio is that each brand has a distinct and unique audience of consumers that it draws from. This allows each brand to focus on meeting the needs of its visitors directly instead of trying to be all things for a broader group of consumers. Old Navy in particular has a strong opportunity with consumers as value continues to be a key motivator.
Gap has done all of the right things to not only catch up to consumers’ expectations but to rise beyond them. Even as legacy store-based retail brands have seen more disruption over the past few years, Gap is ready to step back into the spotlight.
The diversity of brands featured in this report highlight the variety of categories and strategic initiatives that can drive retail and dining success in 2025.
Sprouts’ focus on quality products and small-format stores, CAVA’s rise as a suburban dining powerhouse, and Nordstrom’s commitment to customer experience all highlight how understanding and responding to consumer needs can drive success. Brands like Ashley Furniture, Sam’s Club, H Mart, and Life Time have shown how offering a unique value proposition within a crowded segment, leveraging loyalty, and creating memorable experiences can fuel growth. And Raising Cane’s demonstrates the power of simplicity and operational efficiency in building momentum.
At the same time, niche players like Bluemercury are excelling by catering to specific audiences with authenticity and expertise. And while Starbucks, Adidas, and Gap Inc. face challenges, the three companies’ brand equity and revitalization efforts suggest potential for a significant comeback.
