.svg)
Thrifting is on the rise. Whether fueled by a desire to shop more sustainably, find unique pieces, or save money, consumers have been increasingly turning to secondhand clothing stores for their new threads. And interest in thrift shopping is only expected to grow over the next few years – with some estimates putting the U.S. secondhand market at $73 billion by 2028.
With 2024 nearly at the midway point, we dove into the data to take a closer look at the segment.
The past few years have seen a growing interest among consumers in all things value, and thrift shops have been reaping the benefits. Between January and May 2024, the segment experienced strong monthly year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic growth. And compared to pre-COVID, too, thrift stores drew 29.6% more foot traffic in Q1 2024 than in Q1 2019.
Diving into the visit performance of individual thrift store chains reveals strength across a variety of brands. YoY visits to Goodwill, Crossroads Trading Co., and Savers were consistently elevated between January and May 2024.
Who are the shoppers driving thrift shop visit growth? Analyzing the demographics of thrift store visitors’ trade areas reveals that in 2024, thrift stores serve an economically diverse customer base. Data from the STI: PopStats dataset combined with Placer.ai captured market data shows that Goodwill draws customers from areas with a median household income (HHI) below the nationwide median $76.1K. Savers, for its part, draws shoppers from average-income areas, while Crossroad Trading Co. attracts a high-HHI customer base – likely due to the chain’s strong presence in affluent California and focus on high-end items.
Still, a look at the wider apparel shopping habits of thrift store visitors shows that these shoppers tend to be bargain hunters: Between January and May 2024, visitors to Crossroads Trading Co. and Savers were more likely to visit Goodwill than any other clothing chain. But they – together with Goodwill visitors – also did plenty of shopping at off-price chains like Ross Dress For Less, Marshall’s, and T.J. Maxx. (Crossroad Trading Co., which places a strong emphasis on selling on-trend, high-end items, also saw many of its customers shopping at Macy’s, while Savers visitors were more likely to frequent Kohl’s).
This consistent interest in budget-friendly venues underscores the strong preference for value among the growing ranks of thrift store shoppers
Thrifting is proving its staying power, with visits to major thrift stores outpacing those of other apparel categories. Will the secondhand market continue on its upward trajectory?
Follow Placer.ai to keep up with the latest data-driven retail trends.
Limited-assortment value grocery stores like Aldi and Grocery Outlet Bargain Market have thrived in recent years, as inflation-wary consumers sought out ways to save money at the till.
But how are these chains faring in 2024? Have cooling inflation and increased consumer confidence put a dent in their performance? We dove into the data to find out.
As the name suggests, limited-assortment grocery stores are known for carrying fewer products than traditional grocery stores in a bid to cut down on overhead costs and pass savings on to consumers. These chains also utilize other methods, such as private label brands, opportunistic merchandising, and fewer in-store amenities, to keep prices low.
And foot traffic data shows that in the first part of 2024, consumers continued flocking to these brands to grab groceries at a discount – driving year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic growth that far outperformed that of traditional grocery stores. In May 2024, for example, visits to the overall grocery segment grew by 7.9% YoY, while Aldi and Grocery Outlet Bargain Market experienced YoY growth of 26.3%, 14.3%, and respectively.
Some of this foot traffic growth can be attributed to the two chains’ continued expansion: Aldi added dozens of new stores in 2023 – with hundreds more in the pipeline – and Grocery Outlet Bargain Market also significantly grew its footprint. But the average number of visits to both brands’ individual locations also increased, again outpacing traditional grocery, showing that their expansion is meeting robust demand.
Looking into the loyalty rates of visitors to these limited-assortment value chains provides more reason for optimism for the sector: Over the past three years, Aldi and Grocery Outlet Bargain Market both saw an increase in loyal visits – defined as those made by people who frequented the chains at least four times in a month.
In April 2022, for example, 28.0% of visits to Aldi and 27.0% of visits to Grocery Outlet Bargain Market were made by people who visited the chains at least four times during the month – but by 2024, these shares grew to 30.1% and 30.2%, respectively. A similar trend was observed in May 2024.
Increasingly, it seems, people are doing at least part of their routine weekly grocery shopping at these limited-assortment chains. And with consumers continuing to seek ways to save money, these grocers are well-positioned to continue growing their visit shares.
The limited-assortment, value grocery model continues to prove its staying power, with impressive foot traffic, visits per location, and loyalty rates.
Will the segment continue on its upward trajectory?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
About the Placer 100 Index for Retail & Dining: The Placer 100 Index for Retail & Dining is a curated, dynamic list of leading chains that often serve as prime tenants for shopping centers and malls. The index includes chains from various industries, such as superstores, grocery, dollar stores, dining, apparel, and more. Among the notable chains featured are Walmart, Target, Costco, Kroger, Ulta Beauty, The Home Depot, McDonald’s, Chipotle, Crunch Fitness, and Trader Joe's. The goal of the list is to provide insight into the wider trends impacting the retail, dining, and shopping center segments.
Foot traffic patterns at leading chains can serve as an interesting proxy for consumer sentiment – offering a glimpse into the overall health of the retail and dining spaces. And analyzing the YoY foot traffic performance of the Placer 100 Index for Retail & Dining over the past twelve months reveals that, for the most part, major retail and dining players have enjoyed consistently strong visit growth. In November and December 2023 – during the height of last year’s holiday shopping season – foot traffic to the chains included in the Index increased 2.9% and 3.7% respectively, compared to the equivalent period of 2022.
And although 2024 opened with a slight, weather-driven YoY decline in visits, retail and dining foot traffic quickly bounced back, finishing out May with a 5.1% increase. This springtime jump was partly due to two special calendar days – Mother’s Day weekend, and Memorial Day weekend – both of which drove bigger visit spikes this year than in 2023.
These robust visitation patterns highlight consumer resilience in the face of headwinds – and may be an encouraging indicator of a thriving summer ahead.
Zooming into the Index’s regional performance during May 2024 uncovers impressive positive YoY visit growth across the nation.
The Midwest led the way, buoyed by strong YoY foot traffic growth in South Dakota (6.7%), Michigan (6.4%), and North Dakota (6.4%). But the two states with the biggest YoY visit boosts – Vermont (7.4%) and New Hampshire (7.0%) – were in the Northeast, and the South and West performed well too. This impressive increase in retail and dining visits was observed across the vast majority of the continental U.S., regardless of population size and local weather conditions. Such widespread growth indicates a robust and uniform recovery in consumer activity nationwide, suggesting that factors beyond regional characteristics, such as slowing inflation and increased consumer confidence, played a significant role in driving this trend.
Drilling down into the rankings of individual chains in the index can highlight some of the key trends shaping retail and dining this year.
Value-oriented retailers – including Aldi, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet, and Dollar General, – featured prominently among May’s top performers, both for YoY chain-wide visits and for YoY average visits per location. This robust showing demonstrates the continued draw of budget fare, which has been observed across a wide range of segments – from grocery to apparel.
The quest for savings spilled over into other segments as well. Value gym Crunch Fitness, which grew its footprint significantly over the past year, ranked among the top performers both for overall visits and for visits per location – showcasing the success of its expansion strategy. And casual dining chains Chili’s Grill & Bar and Buffalo Wild Wings also made the list, with YoY visit growth likely driven by successful value promotions.
Indeed, Chili's Grill & Bar – propelled by its hit Big Smasher Burger promotion – has emerged as this month's leading chain, topping the charts both for overall visits (26.3%) and for average visits per location (26.1%).
Hungry, budget-conscious diners can get Chili’s Big Smasher as part of the chain’s signature 3 for Me deal, which lets diners choose a beverage, starter, and main course starting at $10.99. And the offering, which was launched on April 29th, 2024, has become a sensation – going viral on TikTok and garnering significant media attention.
The promotion is competitively priced against QSR offerings, at a time when fast-food chains have seen slowing sales due to cutbacks by inflation-wary consumers. Chili's has been praised for delivering exceptional value – and taking a closer look at weekly visitation trends shows that this strategy is paying off. Chili’s saw a surge of weekly visit growth beginning the week of the promotion (April 29th), and has continued thriving since. This highlights the importance of understanding consumer needs and finding ways to deliver value.
Will June continue to see a rise in retail and dining visits as summer approaches? Will the success of retail and dining foot traffic remain evenly spread across regions, even as some areas are more affected by summer heat? And will value-oriented retailers continue to dominate the ten top performers in retail and dining?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
It’s no secret that the restaurant category is starting to get more promotional. As consumers–especially lower income consumers–have shifted toward substitute food retail channels like value grocers, warehouse clubs, and convenience stores due to the compounded effect of food-away-from home inflation, restaurant chains across all tiers are resorting to increased promotional activity to drive visit trends.
Over the past few weeks, we’ve discussed that several casual dining chains had seen success through all-you-can eat and other deep discount promotions. Last week, we noted that Chili’s had been outperforming broader casual-dining category averages through its value messaging. We also noted the success of Buffalo Wild Wings All-You-Can Eat wings promotions on Monday and Wednesdays starting in mid-May. Below, we show visit trends to Buffalo Wild Wings on Mondays and Wednesdays compared to their year-to-date averages since the beginning of March. The promotion has helped to drive incremental visits on two traditionally slower days. During May, the chain was seeing visits greater than 30% its normal daily visit count for Mondays and Wednesdays during the earlier part of the promotion and exceeding 50% during the latter part of the month. While it's unlikely that this promotion will be permanent–restaurants have to work with their suppliers ahead of time to make sure they have sufficient food for promotions like this–but given the success, the chain may consider running during other months (and potentially other days of the week) later this year.
However, as we noted in our recap of this year’s National Restaurant Association show, QSR chains have started to get more promotional ahead as they look to recapture visit share lost to value grocers, dollar stores, and c-stores (especially within lower-income trade areas). McDonald’s will launch a national $5 value menu promotion on June 25, but it’s clear that other QSR chains are already seeing success with their competing $5 promotions. Below, we show year-over-year weekly visit trends from March through early June for the major QSR burger chains. Burger King launched its own $5 Your Way Meal value menu this past week, and has seen visit trends accelerate since then. Starbucks–which has historically stayed away from discounts as a way to protect its premium brand position–also surprised the industry by announcing a $5-$7 “pairings menu” this week.
Easing commodity costs have allowed restaurants to get more promotional, although when paired with rising labor costs (especially in California, which we covered last week), it does set up an environment where restaurant profits will likely be squeezed over the next several months. Also, substitute food retail channels are likely to introduce their own price reductions in the months to come (as we’ve already seen from Walmart).
Summer has unofficially arrived, and with that comes the desire to relax, unwind and travel. And despite some of the economic uncertainty still facing consumers, 2024 is off to a surprising start for traffic in certain parts of retail. According to AAA, auto traffic growth for Memorial Day weekend was projected to grow by 4% compared to last year and by almost 2% versus 2019. Car travel has long been seen as the value-based travel method across the U.S., and who can forget the allure of the “summer road trip”. But inflationary pressures may have made it less appealing over the past few years. In the most recent consumer price index for May 2024, a drop in gasoline prices was a large positive contributor to the overall rate of 3.3%, which could provide a stronger consumer push for summer car travel.
With the positive momentum in auto traffic and gas prices, gas station and convenience store traffic has greatly benefited since Memorial Day weekend. In fact, visits to chains from May 20 to June 10 this year increased by 11% compared to the same weeks in 2023 and 15% versus 2022. Traffic to convenience stores and gas chains is up almost 30% compared to the same weeks in 2019. Traffic growth steadily climbed over the course of the three weekends measured, and the weeks had some of the highest growth rates so far in 2024 with the exception of a week in March. Even with the projected increase in auto traffic across the country, convenience and gas is the summer blockbuster, building on the consumer trends of the past year and the successful strategies of various retailers.
Wawa, in particular, saw strong visit patterns in the first unofficial few weeks of summer travel. The chain at a total level is up an impressive 14% year-over-year for the measured weeks. Looking at Wawa’s performance across various states, Florida drove much of the growth in traffic as the weather heats up, and outperformed some of the brand’s stronghold states like Pennsylvania & New Jersey. Average dwell times at Wawa locations in Florida are almost a minute higher than the chain average, highlighting that stores are not only pulling in more visits, but keeping visitors in-store for longer. The strong performance of the Florida locations, even during the off season, corroborates the brand’s investment in expansion across the state. One might suspect that Wawa is well positioned heading into the remainder of the summer with its coastal strategy.
Will C-stores continue to grow traffic as we officially enter the summer season? All signs point to yes, even if gas prices rise due to increased demand. Chains have done a fantastic job of enticing consumers with unique food offerings and might become the must-visit destination before heading to the beach this summer.
Darden Restaurants, Inc. operates a portfolio that includes some of the biggest names in full-service dining, including Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, Cheddar’s Scratch Kitchen, Yard House, Ruth’s Chris Steak House, Bahama Breeze, and Eddie V’s Prime Seafood.
How are these restaurants performing as Q3 2024 approaches? We took a closer look at the location analytics to find out which restaurant chains are thriving in today’s challenging economic climate.
Darden’s three largest restaurant chains – Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, and Cheddar’s Scratch Kitchen – are some of the best-known names in casual, full-service dining. These chains have a strong presence across the country and have experienced mainly positive YoY foot traffic this year so far.
Although foot traffic was lower YoY in January and April 2024, these dips can be attributed to external factors, such as January’s inclement weather and an April calendar shift (i.e. the timing of Easter, as well as the extra Saturday in April 2023). And in May the three chains quickly rebounded, ending the month with respective YoY visit increases of 2.4%, 6.4%, and 2.3%.
Darden operates various smaller brands offering different dining styles and price points, ranging from upscale options like Eddie V’s and Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse to more casual spots like Bahama Breeze and Yard House. These smaller chains also experienced strong visitation patterns in early 2024 – with May YoY visits up between 3.9% and 8.5%.
Darden’s strong February and May showings were likely fueled, in part, by two distinctly important days on the Darden restaurant calendar: Valentine’s Day and Mother’s Day.
In absolute terms, Olive Garden – Darden’s largest chain by far – drew the most visits on both holidays as compared to a January 1, 2024 baseline, claiming the top spot this year as America’s favorite Mother’s Day destination. But on a relative basis, Darden’s premium brands Eddie V’s and Ruth Chris experienced the biggest visit spikes, as people splurged on celebratory outings. And laid-back chain Bahama Breeze saw a sustained visit boost from Valentine’s Day through Mother’s Day, likely owing to its strong presence in Florida – making it an attractive destination for the snowbirds and vacationers who visit the state during the winter.
And surprisingly, even casual dining venue Yard House – known for its beer and sports atmosphere rather than romantic setting – experienced a Valentine’s Day visit boost. This suggests that there is a tangible benefit from these holidays across a wide range of dining styles – and restaurant operators can use these insights to encourage visits on such occasions.
Darden continues to attract customers to its restaurants in spite of a challenging economy by offering a variety of dining choices and capitalizing on popular dining-out occasions such as Mother’s Day and Valentine’s Day.
Will the company’s visit growth continue to trend upward as 2024 wears on?
Follow Placer.ai for the latest data-driven dining insights.
Many retail and dining chains performed well in 2024 despite the ongoing economic uncertainty. But with the consumer headwinds continuing into 2025, which brands can continue pulling ahead of the pack?
This report highlights 10 brands (in no particular order) that exhibit significant potential to grow in 2025 – as well as three chains that have faced some challenges in 2024 but appear poised to make a comeback in the year ahead. Which chains made the cut? Dive into the report to find out.
Through 2024, visits to Sprouts Farmers Market locations increased an average of 7.2% year-over-year (YoY) each month, outpacing the wider grocery segment standard by an average of six percentage points. And not only were visits up – monthly visits per location also grew YoY.
The promising coupling of overall and visits per location growth seems driven by the brands’ powerful understanding of who they are and what they bring to the market. The focus on high quality, fresh products is resonating, and the utilization of small- format locations is empowering the chain to bring locations to the doorstep of their ideal audiences.
This combination of forces positions the brand to better identify and reach key markets efficiently, offering an ideal path to continued growth. The result is a recipe for ongoing grocery success.
CAVA has emerged as a standout success story in the restaurant industry over the past several years. Traditionally, Mediterranean concepts have not commanded the same level of demand as burger, sandwich, Mexican, or Asian fast-casual concepts, which is why the category lacked a true national player until CAVA's rise. However, evolving consumer tastes have created a fertile landscape for Mediterranean cuisine to thrive, driven by factors such as social media influence, expanded food options via third-party delivery, growing demand for healthier choices, the rise of food-focused television programming, and the globalization of restaurant concepts .
CAVA’s success can be attributed to several key factors. Roughly 80% of CAVA locations were in suburban areas before the pandemic, aligning well with consumer migration and work-from-home trends. Additionally, CAVA was an early adopter of digital drive-thru lanes, similar to Chipotle’s "Chipotlanes," and began developing these store formats well before the pandemic. The brand has also utilized innovative tools like motion sensors in its restaurants to optimize throughput and staffing during peak lunchtime hours, enabling it to refine restaurant design and equipment placement as it expanded. CAVA’s higher employee retention rates have also contributed to its ability to maintain speed-of-service levels above category averages.
These strengths allowed CAVA to successfully enter new markets like Chicago in 2024. While many emerging brands have struggled to gain traction in new areas, CAVA’s visit-per-location metrics in recently entered markets have matched its national averages, positioning the brand for continued growth in 2025.
Ashley’s recent strategy shift to differentiate itself through experiential events, such as live music, workshops, and giveaways, is a compelling approach in the challenging consumer discretionary category. Post-pandemic, commercial property owners have successfully used community events to boost visit frequency, dwell time, and trade area size for mall properties. It’s no surprise that retailers like Ashley are adopting similar strategies to engage customers and enhance their in-store experience.
The decision to incorporate live events into its marketing strategy reflects the growing demand for experiential and immersive retail experiences. While home furnishings saw a surge in demand during the pandemic, the category has struggled over the past two years, underperforming other discretionary retail sectors compared to pre-pandemic levels. Recognizing this challenge, Ashley’s rebrand focuses on creating interactive and memorable experiences that allow customers to engage directly with its products and explore various design possibilities. In turn, this has helped to drive visits from trade areas with younger consumers with lower household incomes.
Ashley has leaned into collaborations with interior designers and industry experts to offer informative sessions and workshops during these events. These initiatives not only attract traffic but also provide valuable insights into customers’ preferences, which can be used to refine product offerings, enhance customer service, and shape future marketing efforts. This approach is particularly relevant as millennials and Gen Z drive new household formation. While still early, Ashley’s pivot to live events is showing promising results in attracting visits and increasing customer engagement.
Department stores have had many challenges in navigating changing consumer behavior and finding their place in an evolving retail landscape. Nordstrom, an example of department store success in 2024, has been able to maintain a strong brand relationship with its shoppers and regain its footing with its store fleet. While the chain has certainly benefited from catering to a more affluent, and less price sensitive, consumer base, it still shines in fostering a shopping experience that stands out.
Value might be a driver of retail visitation across the industry, but for Nordstrom, service and experience is paramount. The retailer has downplayed promotional activity in favor of driving loyalty among key visitors. Nordstrom also has captured higher shares of high-value, younger consumer segments, which defies commonly held thoughts about department stores. The chain was a top visited chain during Black Friday in 2024, showcasing that it’s top of mind for shoppers for both gift giving and self-gifting.
What’s next? Nordstrom announced at the end of December that it plans to go private with the help of Mexican retail chain Liverpool. We expect to see even more innovation in store experience, assortments and services with this newfound flexibility and investment. And, we cannot forget about Nordstrom Rack, which allows the retailer to still engage price-conscious shoppers of all income levels, which is certainly still a bright spot as we head into 2025.
Visits are up, and the audience visiting Sam’s Club locations seems to be getting younger which – when taken together – tells us a few critical things. First, Sam’s Club has parlayed its pandemic resurgence into something longer term, leveraging the value and experience it provides to create loyal customers. Second, the power of its offering is attracting a newer audience that had previously been less apt to take advantage of the unique Sam’s Club benefits.
The result is a retailer that is proving particularly adept at understanding the value of a visit. The membership club model incentives loyalty which means that once a visitor takes the plunge, the likelihood of more visits is heightened significantly. And the orientation to value, a longer visit duration, and a wide array of items on sale leads to a larger than normal basket size.
In a retail segment where the value of loyalty and owning ‘share of shopping list’ is at a premium, Sam’s Club is positioned for the type of success that builds a foundation for strength for years to come.
Raising Cane’s exemplifies the power of focus by excelling at a simple menu done exceptionally well. Over the past several years, the chain has been one of the fastest-growing in the QSR segment, driven by a streamlined menu that enhances speed and efficiency, innovative marketing campaigns, and strategic site selection in both new and existing markets. Notably, Raising Cane’s ranked among the top QSR chains for visit-per-location growth last year. Unlike many competitors that leaned on deep discounts or nostalgic product launches to boost traffic in 2024, Raising Cane’s relied on operational excellence to build brand awareness and drive visits. This approach has translated into some of the highest average unit sales in the segment, with restaurants averaging around $6 million in sales last year.
Raising Cane’s operational efficiency has also been a key driver of its rapid expansion, growing from 460 locations at the end of 2019 to more than 830 heading into 2025. This includes over 100 new store openings in 2024 alone, placing it among the top QSR chains for year-over-year visit growth. The chain’s ability to maintain exceptional performance while scaling rapidly highlights its strong foundation and operational strategy.
While Life Time has fitness at its core, it has also expanded to become a lifestyle. Healthy living is its mantra and this extends to both the gym aspect, but also the social health of its members with offerings like yoga, childcare, personalized fitness programs, coworking, and even an option for luxury living just steps away.
With all these choices, it’s no wonder that its members are more loyal than others in its peer group.
To the delight of book lovers everywhere, Barnes & Noble is back in force. With a presence in every single state and approximately 600 stores, location options are growing to browse bestsellers, chat with in-store bibliophiles, or grab a latte. Stores are feeling cozier and more local, with handwritten recommendations across the store. The chain’s extensive selection of gifts and toys mean that one can stop in for more than just books. The membership program is also relaunching, rewarding members for their purchases. Even though some locations have downsized, efficiency is up with average visits per square foot increasing over the last 3 years. Customers are also lingering, with nearly 3 in 10 visitors staying 45 minutes or longer.
With options for a “third place” that’s not home or work dwindling, Barnes & Noble is poised to fill that hole.
From its origins as a corner grocery store in Queens, NY 42 years ago, H Mart now boasts over 80 stores throughout the US. Shoppers are enticed by the aroma of hot roasted sweet potatoes wafting through the store, the opportunities to try new brands like Little Jasmine fruit teas, and the array of prepared foods such as gimbap and japchae. In addition to traditional Korean, Chinese, and Japanese groceries, H Mart’s assortment has expanded to staple items and American brands as well like Chobani yogurt or Doritos.
As the Hallyu wave sweeps across the nation and K-pop stars like Rose top the charts for the eight straight week with the catchy “APT”, so too is the appetite for Asian food. At the second-most visited H Mart in the nation in Carrollton, TX, the ethnic makeup of customers is 39% White, 14% Black, 23% Hispanic or Latino, and 20% Asian – reflecting the truly universal appeal of this supermarket chain.
Beauty retail had a transformative 2024, with a general cooling off in demand for the category. Competition between chains has increased and delivering quality products, expertise and services is critical to maintain visits. Against this backdrop, Bluemercury stands out as a shining star in parent company Macy’s portfolio of brands, with the brand well positioned to take on this next chapter of beauty retail.
Bluemercury’s success lies in its ability to be a retailer, an expert, and a spa service provider to its consumers. Placer data has shown that beauty chains with a service and retail component tend to attract more visitors than those who just specialize in retail offerings, and Bluemercury is no exception. The chain also focuses solely on the prestige market within the beauty industry and caters to higher income households compared to the broader beauty category; both of those factors have contributed to more elastic demand than with other retailers.
Bluemercury’s bet on product expertise and knowledge combined with a smaller format store help to foster a strong connection between the beauty retailer and its consumers. The brand overindexes with visitors “seeking youthful appearance” and has cemented itself as a destination for niche and emerging beauty brands. As the larger Macy’s brand grapples with its transformation, Bluemercury’s relevance and deep connection to its consumer base can serve as an inspiration, especially as the beauty industry faces mounting uncertainty.
Competitors like Dutch Bros and 7Brew are on the rise, critical office visitation patterns remain far behind pre-pandemic levels, and the chain did not end the year in the most amazing way in terms of visit performance. But there is still so much to love about Starbucks – and the addition of new CEO Brian Niccol positions the coffee giant to rebound powerfully.
The focused attention on leaning into its legendary ‘third place’ concept is in excellent alignment with the shift to the suburbs and hybrid work and with audiences that continue to show they value experience over convenience. But the convenience-oriented customer will likely also benefit from the brand’s recent initiatives, including pushes to improve staffing, mobile ordering alignment and menu simplification. In addition, the brand is still the gold standard when it comes to owning the calendar, as seen with their annual visit surges for the release of the Pumpkin Spice Latte or Red Cup Day and their ability to capitalize on wider retail holidays like Black Friday and Super Saturday.
The combination of the tremendous reach, brand equity, remaining opportunities in growing markets and the combined ability to address both convenience and experience oriented customers speaks to a unique capacity to regain lost ground and drive a significant resurgence against the expectations of many.
Retail has had its challenges this year, with many consumers opting for off-price to snag deals – but the strength of the Adidas brand should not be underestimated. Gazelles and Sambas are still highly coveted, and a partnership with Messi x Bad Bunny racked up over a million likes. Consumers are favoring classic silhouettes across both shoes and clothing, and nothing says classic like those three stripes.
Gap, and its family of brands including Old Navy and Banana Republic, are synonymous with American apparel retail. The namesake brand has always been at the center of comfort, value and style, but over time lost its way with consumers. However, over the past year and a half, the reinvigoration of the Gap family of brands has started to take shape under the direction of CEO Richard Dickson.
New designs, collaborations, splashy marketing campaigns and store layouts have taken shape across the portfolio. While we haven’t seen a lot of change in visitation to stores over the past year, trends are certainly moving in the right direction and outpacing many other brands in the apparel space. Gap has also reinserted itself into the fabric of American fashion this past year with designs for the Met Gala.
The benefit of Gap Inc.’s portfolio is that each brand has a distinct and unique audience of consumers that it draws from. This allows each brand to focus on meeting the needs of its visitors directly instead of trying to be all things for a broader group of consumers. Old Navy in particular has a strong opportunity with consumers as value continues to be a key motivator.
Gap has done all of the right things to not only catch up to consumers’ expectations but to rise beyond them. Even as legacy store-based retail brands have seen more disruption over the past few years, Gap is ready to step back into the spotlight.
The diversity of brands featured in this report highlight the variety of categories and strategic initiatives that can drive retail and dining success in 2025.
Sprouts’ focus on quality products and small-format stores, CAVA’s rise as a suburban dining powerhouse, and Nordstrom’s commitment to customer experience all highlight how understanding and responding to consumer needs can drive success. Brands like Ashley Furniture, Sam’s Club, H Mart, and Life Time have shown how offering a unique value proposition within a crowded segment, leveraging loyalty, and creating memorable experiences can fuel growth. And Raising Cane’s demonstrates the power of simplicity and operational efficiency in building momentum.
At the same time, niche players like Bluemercury are excelling by catering to specific audiences with authenticity and expertise. And while Starbucks, Adidas, and Gap Inc. face challenges, the three companies’ brand equity and revitalization efforts suggest potential for a significant comeback.
The holiday shopping season traditionally stretches from Black Friday to New Years Eve: Shoppers looking to snag deals, purchase gifts, or enhance their celebrations drive visit spikes at retailers across the country. And although many consumers expressed concern over high prices impacting their holiday budget, spending in 2024 actually increased compared to 2023, with brick-and-mortar stores playing a key role in last year’s holiday season.
So where were the largest holiday spikes? How did last year’s calendar configuration impact retail traffic? Which segment came out ahead – and how did dining fit into the mix? Most importantly – what can we learn from the 2024 holiday season to prepare for 2025?
The holiday shopping season is the busiest time of the year for many retail categories. Between Black Friday and December 31st 2024, daily visits to brick-and-mortar stores increased 12.7%, on average, compared to the rest of the year.
Department stores led the pack, with visits to the segment 102.1% higher than the pre-holiday season average – likely aided by strong Black Friday performances. Other favorite gifting categories, including beauty & self care (72.7%), hobbies, gifts & crafts (60.9%), recreational & sporting goods (55.5%), clothing (41.8%), and electronics stores (32.7%) also received significant traffic boosts. Shopping centers benefited as well with a 24.8% increase in daily visits over the holiday season. Retailers in these segments can capitalize on their holiday popularity and stand out amidst the crowd by promoting their brand early and ensuring their staffing and inventory can accommodate the season’s traffic increases.
The holidays are also a time for entertainment – and purchasing gifts for hosts – which likely helped drive the 48.4% and 41.7% traffic increases at liquor stores and at furniture & home furnishings retailers, respectively. Superstores and discount & dollar stores – with their selection of affordable giftable products and entertainment essentials – also saw holiday-driven visit bumps of 21.2% and 20.2%, respectively. Retailers may choose to highlight seasonal items and hosting-friendly products to increase these traffic bumps in 2025.
Pet stores & services received a smaller (10.0%) bump than the wider retail average – indicating that, although some shoppers buy gifts for their fur babies, pets may not be at the top of most Americans’ gift lists. And visits to the home improvement segment were essentially on par with the pre-holiday period – indicating that the holidays are not the time for extensive home renovation projects. But home improvement chains looking to get in on the holiday action might consider promoting decorations and smaller giftable items in December.
And despite the grocery frenzy of Turkey Wednesday and Christmas Eve Eve, the Grocery segment received a relatively minor holiday boost of 5.0% – perhaps due to holiday travelers skipping their weekly grocery haul. Grocers who lean into prepared foods or pre-packaged meal kits might get an additional bump.
Although the holidays drive retail visit surges across the country, some regions see a bigger traffic bump than others.
In December 2024, almost all 50 states (with the exception of Wyoming ) received a holiday-driven retail traffic boost ranging from a 3.3% (Montana) to a 16.8% (New Hampshire). On a regional basis, the South received the largest increase: The West South Central, East South Central, and South Atlantic divisions received a collective 12.2% increase in daily visits between Black Friday and New Years Eve compared to the pre-Black Friday daily average. (Washington, D.C. saw a slight visit decline of 0.4%, likely due to the many residents leaving the capital for the holiday break.) Retailers in this region may choose to increase staffing and inventory ahead of the 2025 holiday season to handle the increased demand.
Meanwhile, the Midwest region had the smallest holiday-driven traffic spike (9.2%) – despite starting the season ahead of the pack, with the highest Black Friday weekend visit boost. This suggests that Midwestern retailers may have more success with early promotions than with last-minute discounts.
While the holiday season drove an overall retail visit boost nationwide, diving deeper into the data reveals that different retail segments peak at different points of the holiday season.
Most categories – especially the ones that tend to offer steep post-Thanksgiving discounts, such as recreational & sporting goods, department stores, electronics stores, and beauty retailers – received the biggest visit spikes on Black Friday. Retailers in these categories may benefit from promotional campaigns ahead of Thanksgiving to cater to early shoppers and maximize their performance on their busiest day.
Other segments that carry more affordable gifts, stocking stuffers, and food items gained momentum as Christmas approached – with superstores visits spiking on December 23rd and discount & dollar stores peaking on December 24th. These retailers may get even larger end-of-year visit bumps by offering discounts and bundles to last-minute shoppers.
The grocery segment received its largest boost ahead of Thanksgiving, with visits also surging on the days before Christmas as home cooks picked up supplies for the holiday dinner. Grocers who can save their shoppers time during this busy period by offering curbside pickup, pre-prepped ingredients or meal kits, and other conveniences may see particularly strong performances in 2025.
Calendar shifts also play an important role in shaping holiday shopping patterns. Last year, Super Saturday and “Christmas Eve Eve” – each a significant milestone in its own right – coincided on December 23rd, 2023 to create a supercharged shopping event that generated massive visit spikes at retailers across categories.
But in 2024, when the milestones occurred separately, important differences emerged between retailers. Gift-shopping destinations like Macy’s, Nordstrom, and Best Buy saw bigger visit spikes on Super Saturday, while retailers like Target, Walmart, and Costco – carrying both gifts and food items – saw visits surge higher on December 23rd. Dollar Tree, a prime destination for affordable stocking stuffers, also experienced a more pronounced visit spike on Super Saturday.
Predictably, this year’s pre-Christmas milestones generally drove smaller individual visit spikes, as shoppers spread their errands across a longer period. But the stand-alone Super Saturday on December 21st 2024 also allowed consumers to prioritize gift-shopping on Saturday and shop for groceries and last minute stocking stuffers on December 23rd – benefiting certain retailers.
Nordstrom, for instance, saw visits soar to 215.9% above the chain’s 2024 daily average on December 21, 2024 – surpassing the 196.2% increase recorded on December 23, 2023. Macy’s also experienced a slightly higher Super Saturday visit boost this year. Next year, retailers can expect another spread-out pre-Christmas shopping period, with Super Saturday falling on December 20th, 2025 – five days before the holiday. Gift-focused retailers can leverage this timing by ramping up promotions in the run-up to Super Saturday – or by enhancing offerings on December 23rd to capture more late-season shoppers.
Big box retailers like Target, Walmart, and Costco, conversely, can double down on December 23rd or amplify earlier deals to capture a larger share of Super Saturday traffic. And retailers across categories can benefit from the more extended last-minute shopping period by implementing multi-day sales and promotions that encourage repeat visits and drive traffic throughout the week.
Turkey Wednesday – the day before Thanksgiving – is traditionally the grocery sector’s time to shine. And this year didn’t disappoint: On November 27th, 2024, visits to traditional grocery mainstays like Kroger, Safeway, and H-E-B shot up by a remarkable 66.9% to 79.2% compared to the 2024 daily average. And on December 23rd, foot traffic to the chains rose once again, though somewhat more moderately, as shoppers geared up for Christmas celebrations.
But the holiday season stock-up, it turns out, is about more than just food. Whether to help smooth out the rough edges of family interactions or to take celebrations to the next level, consumers also make pre-holiday runs to liquor stores. On Turkey Wednesday, leading spirit purveyors outperformed traditional grocery stores with epic 140.1% to 236.5% visit spikes. And the day before Christmas Eve was an even bigger milestone for the segment, with foot traffic skyrocketing by a staggering 153.6% to 283.8% above daily averages.
Ethnic supermarkets – chains like El Super and Vallarta Supermarket – also thrived on these traditional pre-holiday grocery store milestones. But like liquor stores, they saw bigger visit spikes on December 23rd, as customers likely sought out ingredients for their festive holiday dinners.
Grocery stores seeking to maximize the power of these pre-holiday milestones in 2025 could enhance their liquor selections and launch targeted promotions in the lead-up to both Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Dining venues are also impacted by the rhythms of the holiday season – but each segment within the dining industry follows its own unique seasonal trajectory.
Visits to the fast-casual, coffee, and fine-dining segments increased the week before Thanksgiving, with fast-casual and coffee visits peaking on Wednesday and fine-dining peaking on Thanksgiving day. Both coffee and fine-dining chains also received a small traffic bump on Black Friday, with coffee traffic likely aided by consumers looking to refuel during their shopping.
But beginning in mid-December, the fine-dining category pulled ahead of the other dining segments, picking up steam as the month wore on before peaking on December 23rd and 24th. And while traffic predictably declined on Christmas Day, the drop was less pronounced than for the other analyzed segments. Fine dining then resumed its strong showing on December 26th, maintaining elevated visits through the following days, potentially reflecting its appeal as a festive holiday dining destination for families.
Coffee chains and fast-casual restaurants also enjoyed moderately elevated December traffic, with smaller visit spikes on December 23rd. Traffic to both segments then slowed during the holiday – though coffee chains continued to see higher-than-average foot traffic on Christmas Eve – before tapering off as the month drew to a close.
Looking ahead to 2025, each dining segment can take steps to maximize its holiday impact. Fine dining chains can attract more special-occasion celebrants with unique holiday-themed menu items – paired with targeted promotions that make its premium offerings more accessible to families. Meanwhile, fast-casual and coffee chains can capitalize on high-traffic days like December 23rd by catering to the needs of busy holiday shoppers – extending operating hours and offering streamlined ordering and pickup options.
The 2024 holiday season proved strong for most retail categories, with each retail category displaying a different holiday visit pattern. This year’s calendar layout also presented a unique advantage, with a longer stretch between Super Saturday and Christmas compared to last year.
By analyzing 2024 holiday regional visit trends, understanding the role that each year’s specific calendar configuration plays in shaping consumer behavior, and identifying the unique retail milestones for each chain and category, retail and dining stakeholders can refine their strategies and make the most of the 2025 holiday season.
