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CAVA and sweetgreen have been rapidly expanding, cementing their place in the fast-casual dining landscape. We dive into the data to take a closer look at CAVA and sweetgreen’s foot traffic performance and uncover the seasonal visitation patterns driving appetite for these fast-growing chains in 2025.
CAVA and sweetgreen are still firmly in expansion mode, with new store openings fueling their foot traffic growth. Last quarter, CAVA reported a 21.4% year-over-year (YoY) increase in total restaurants and currently boasts nearly 380 locations. And in the past year, sweetgreen has opened dozens of new venues, growing the chain’s footprint to over 900 locations.
Through H2 2024 and the start of 2025, CAVA and sweetgreen experienced consistent YoY visit growth – outperforming the fast-casual restaurant category every month. CAVA’s significantly larger visit growth (26.9% compared to sweetgreen’s 9.9% YoY in Q4 2024) was likely due to the proportional impact of new restaurant openings on CAVA’s smaller real estate footprint.
As CAVA and sweetgreen continue to expand, 2025 is likely to be another year of sustained growth for both restaurants.
Analyzing seasonal visit trends can reveal some of the factors driving sweetgreen and CAVA’s success.
Fast-casual restaurants generally receive more of their visits during lunch than during dinner. And CAVA and sweetgreen received an even larger share of lunchtime (12 PM to 3 PM) visits than the fast-casual average – indicating that these restaurants’ lunchtime popularity is likely a major growth driver.
CAVA also received the highest dinner (between 6 PM and 9 PM) visit share. This indicates that despite CAVA’s fast-casual designation, consumers seem to treat it more like a full-service restaurant, with patrons visiting the chain to eat a proper meal and not just to grab a convenient bite between errands. And the company’s recently launched loyalty program may well bring even more lunch and dinner visits to the chain in 2025.
Meanwhile, sweetgreen’s dinner visit share remained at or below the fast-casual average throughout the year. But evening traffic to the salad chain did increase during the warmer months – hitting a high of 27.4% between July and October – perhaps due to consumers remaining out and about later when there were more daylight hours. Consumers generally spend significantly more on dinner out than on lunch, so sweetgreen may want to fuel its warm-weather dinner boost by offering specials or promotions to attract even more evening patrons to its locations during Q2 and Q3. Sweetgreen may also choose to incorporate time-dependent ordering incentives into its new loyalty program to encourage more evening visits throughout the year.
Further analysis of visitor behavior reveals that CAVA and sweetgreen drive a significant share of weekend visits. And while sweetgreen’s dinner boost tends to occur in Q2 and Q3, both sweetgreen and CAVA’s weekend visit share increases in Q1 and Q4.
At least some of the elevated weekend visits in Q4 2024 may have been due to the many consumers that were on vacation – eating fewer mid-week meals out of the house – or grabbing a bite while doing their holiday shopping on Saturday and Sunday. Still, elevated weekend traffic in Q1 indicates that the chains have the potential to drive significant traffic during other cold-weather months on days when consumers have more time for recreation.
CAVA’s continued investment in inviting dining rooms – part of the chain’s “Project Soul” campaign – may attract unhurried diners looking to experience a cozy ambiance, while sweetgreen’s early-stage rollout of the robotic “Infinite Kitchen” may actually elevate the indoor dining experience to one that is fun and weekend-worthy.
As sweetgreen and CAVA pursue various strategies in their next phase of growth, an understanding of consumer behavior can help the chains maximize the potential of their robust visitor bases and enhance operational efficiency.
Want more data-driven dining insights? Visit Placer.ai.
The Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index: The office building index analyzes foot traffic data from some 1,000 office buildings across the country. It only includes commercial office buildings, and commercial office buildings with retail offerings on the first floor (like an office building that might include a national coffee chain on the ground floor). It does NOT include mixed-use buildings that are both residential and commercial.
Several factors seem to have converged in January 2025 to temporarily hamper the return to office (RTO) recovery. First, last month brought a polar vortex to much of the United States, compelling Americans to stay indoors and avoid unnecessary trips outside – including to the office. January 1st also fell on a Wednesday this year, and many people likely took advantage of the calendar luck to extend their vacation through the weekend – leading to fewer January office visits compared to years when New Year’s Day falls earlier in the week.
As a result, the January 2025 bump appeared relatively muted: Visits in January 2025 were only 17.7% higher than in December 2024, compared to a 31.3% month-over-month increase from December 2023 to January 2024. And visits were 40.2% lower than they were in pre-pandemic January 2019 – a slightly worse showing than the 39.2% pre-pandemic visit gap of December 2024.
The meteorological and calendar challenges seem to have impacted office visits on a metro area as well, with few cities analyzed making significant RTO strides in January 2025. The sole exception was New York, where January 2025 visits were only 19.0% lower than they were in January 2019 – a slightly smaller visit gap than the previous month.
Diving into the year-over-year data shows the impact of the polar vortex more clearly. Many of the cities where residents are used to and equipped for the colder weather – Chicago, Boston, and New York – seemed to have experienced a relatively minimal impact from the arctic blast. The one exception was Denver, which was exceptionally frigid – with subzero temperatures – so that even those used to cold may have opted to work from home.
But in metro areas where weather tends to be relatively warm – including Atlanta, Houston, Washington, D.C., and Dallas – the impact of the polar vortex was visibly stronger. In these cities, the YoY visit gap ranged from 7.5% (Atlanta) to 12.0% (Dallas) – as employees without proper winter jackets or snow tires likely chose to stay cozy and avoid the chill.
January 2025’s RTO stats may not have been particularly impressive, but the relatively weak office data is likely more a reflection of last month’s unique challenges rather than a slowdown in RTO momentum. With the weather now back to normal and no mid-week holidays in the near future, the coming months will be critical in evaluating if the RTO is in fact slowing down or whether January just marked a temporary setback within a still unfolding story.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai.
Brick-and-mortar retail continues to evolve – and while consumers have always turned to physical commercial spaces to gather, shop, eat, and be entertained, we predict that 2025 will be the year of brick and mortar stores as Brand Amplifiers. What do we mean by that? Simply put, the more we have options to do things online – be it shop, communicate, work, or play – the more we also crave the opportunity to do these things in the physical world, and brick and mortar is at the center of making these experiences larger than life. It’s no surprise, then, that even digitally native Gen Z is still regularly visiting physical stores.
We’ve written extensively about the importance of brick-and-mortar locations for digital brands and of standalone boutiques for wholesale brands – within the four walls of a branded store, marketers have the ability to control the narrative. From the visual merchandising to the customer associate, the brand’s personality and DNA can really come to life.
The recent Meta Popup Lab on Melrose Ave in the West Hollywood Design District – created to test its Ray-Ban smart glasses – offers a great example of brick and mortar’s potential to amplify digital brands and make them come to life. While the venue only opened for a little under two months, visitation data and audience profile analysis reveals the consumer demand for the experience as well as the brand amplification value that Meta received from the pop up.
Weekends tend to be the most popular recreation days, as that’s when most people have free time to shop and explore. And looking at visitation patterns shows that this trend held true at the Meta Popup Lab and in the wider Design District retail corridor in which the pop up was operating. But the Meta Popup Lab actually received a larger share of its visits on Saturdays and Sundays compared to the wider shopping corridor – indicating that visitors were dedicating precious weekend time to visit the pop up and make sure they could get the full Meta experience without feeling rushed by their various weekday constraints.
Diving into the visit duration at Meta Lab reveals that over a quarter of visits lasted between 15-29 minutes, and roughly 1 in 6 lasted 30-44 minutes. That time frame is enough to try on some frames, speak to a customer associate, and make a purchase decision.
Meta Lab also drew more visitors from trade areas with higher income and smaller households compared to the wider West Hollywood Design District. This indicates that, as may be expected, Meta Lab attracted a relatively young and affluent audience – tech-savvy visitors with the disposable income to spend.
The success of the Meta Popup Lab underscores the potential of brick-and-mortar spaces as brand amplifiers, transforming digital concepts into immersive, tangible experiences. As consumers continue to seek deeper connections with brands, physical retail offers a unique opportunity to engage, educate, and excite in ways that digital alone cannot. In an era where online and offline worlds are increasingly intertwined, brands that strategically leverage physical spaces will stand out by creating lasting impressions that go beyond the screen.
The Placer 100 Index for Retail & Dining is a curated, dynamic list of leading chains operating across the United States. It includes chains from a variety of industries, such as superstores, grocery, dollar stores, apparel, full-service dining, QSR, and more.
Visits to the Placer 100 Retail & Dining Index increased 3.7% in January 2025 relative to January 2024, indicating that – despite the recent dip in consumer confidence – traffic to brick-and-mortar retail and dining venues remains resilient.
We’ve written extensively about Chili’s ongoing success, so it came as no surprise that the casual dining chain topped the Placer 100 chart again in January 2025: Overall visits and visits per location grew a whopping 29.3% and 30.2%, respectively, compared to January 2024. Barnes & Noble has also been thriving for a while, and the legacy bookseller continued its winning streak with double-digit growth in both overall visits and visits per location in the first month of 2025.
Other notable chart-toppers from January 2025 include LA Fitness, which has been rightsizing its fleet and closing locations throughout the country, leading to a 8.1% year-over-year (YoY) increase in average visits per location. CVS, which closed numerous venues in 2024 as well, has also seen its average visits per location shoot up.
Like Chili’s and Barnes & Noble, Warby Parker was among the January 2025 top 10 growth chains for both overall visits and visits per venue. The company is opening stores at a rapid rate with the long-term goal of 900 brick-and-mortar stores nationwide.
Warby is an expert in omnichannel integration, and the company continues to enhance the online customer experience even as it builds up a brick-and-mortar empire. And analyzing the brand’s January 2025 metrics along with its 2024 performance – when overall visits increased 16.8% while average visits per venue remained steady – reveals that this investment in both its physical and digital channels is paying off.
According to co-CEO and co-founder Dave Gilboa, brick-and-mortar venues accounted for around 70% of Warby Parker’s revenue as of Q3 2024 – an increase from 67% in Q3 2023 – though many customers who initially bought in-store made subsequent purchases online. This showcases the customer acquisition potential of physical stores, especially for companies who succeed in integrating and creating synergy between their offline and online presence. And some of Warby’s strongest e-commerce growth has taken place in metro areas where the brand has a significant physical presence – emphasizing the role that brick-and-mortar venues play in raising brand awareness and strengthening consumer engagement.
It seems, then, that Warby Parker's strategic offline expansion is not only driving in-store sales but also fueling online growth – demonstrating the powerful interplay between brick-and-mortar locations and digital engagement in strengthening customer loyalty and brand visibility.
For more Placer 100 Retail & Dining Index data, visit https://www.placer.ai/placer-100.
About the Placer.ai Mall Index: The Index analyzes data from 100 top-tier indoor malls, 100 open-air shopping centers (not including outlet malls) and 100 outlet malls across the country, in both urban and suburban areas. Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the country.
Shopping centers started the year off strong with year-over-year growth across all mall formats analyzed: January 2025 visits increased by 5.5% for indoor malls and by 2.9% and 2.7% for open-air shopping centers and outlet malls, respectively, compared to January 2024. The January visit growth is particularly impressive given this year’s arctic blast which kept many consumers home for much of the month.
Relatively few mall-goers visit the mall twice (or more) in one month. Open-air shopping centers have the highest rate of returning monthly visitors – likely thanks to their extensive dining and entertainment options – but even this format only sees around a third of its visitors heading to an open-air shopping center more than once a month.
Comparing the share of returning visitors in January 2024 and 2025 for each format reveals that the share of returning (2+ times) visitors decreased YoY in January 2025, even as overall traffic increased. This means that last month’s visit growth was primarily driven by casual visitors, and could indicate that interest in malls is moving beyond regular patrons as the format now gains new customers – boding well for shopping centers’ potential in 2025.
Even though January visits increased YoY, traffic was still (expectedly) significantly lower than it was in December. The holidays are malls’ busiest season, and traffic between December 2024 and January 2025 dropped 36.1%, on average, across the three formats. And diving into the data reveals several shifts in audience profile and visitor behavior between December and January.
In terms of visitor behavior, dwell time across the three mall formats fell in January compared to December, indicating that all three shopping center types enjoy an increase in both the quantity and the quality of visits over the holiday season. The increase in dwell time in December seemed correlated with the increase in holiday visits: Outlet malls, which received the largest holiday visit boost, also had the biggest difference in dwell time between December and January (73.8 minutes compared to 68.7 minutes, or a 6.9% increase in dwell time in December). Meanwhile, open-air shopping centers, which received the smallest holiday visit boost, also saw the smallest difference in dwell time between December and January.
In terms of audience profile, the holidays seemed to drive more visits from members of households with children to all mall formats. This is likely due to several factors, including parents looking for a one-stop-shop for their gift lists and to the numerous family-friendly holiday activities offered by malls across the country, such as mall Santas and holiday markets.
The January 2025 Mall Index data suggests significant growth potential for malls in 2025. The increase in one-off visits may indicate that malls are attracting a broader audience, signaling an opportunity for retailers and shopping centers to convert these casual visitors into loyal customers. Will malls leverage this momentum to ensure that today’s occasional mall-goers become tomorrow’s repeat shoppers?
Visit placer.ai to find out.
The Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles will face off in Super Bowl LIX on Sunday in a rematch of the Super Bowl two years ago. And on their journeys to the big game, each team hosted a conference championship in their home stadium – in both the 2023 and 2025 playoffs. How did the visitors to these games compare, and what might it mean for this Super Bowl sequel? Read on to find out.
The AFC and NFC Championships determine the teams that will play in the Super Bowl – and die hard fans travel from near and far to attend big games.
The AFC Championship in both 2023 (for the 2022 season) and 2025 (for the 2024 season) took place at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium – home of the Kansas City Chiefs – with the Chiefs playing the Cincinnati Bengals in 2023 and the Buffalo Bills in 2025. In 2025, GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium saw an increased share of visitors traveling less than 30 miles to the stadium (45.1%), compared to 2023 (43.6%). Fans tend to rally around a winning team, and an increase in local attendees suggests a boost in support from the Chief’s core fanbase in the Kansas City, MO area as the team looked to take another step towards winning three straight Super Bowls. But the stadium also received an elevated share of attendees traveling 100-250 miles to the stadium in 2025 (24.7%) compared to 2023 (21.5%) – a distance that includes Omaha, NE, Tulsa, OK, and Wichita, KS – indicating that Chiefs Kingdom has also bolstered its strongholds somewhat further away over the last two years.
On the NFC side, the Philadelphia Eagles played at their home stadium – Lincoln Financial Field – in both the 2023 NFC Championship (for the 2022 season) against the San Francisco 49ers and the 2025 NFC Championship (for the 2024 season) against the Washington Commanders. And between 2023 and 2025, the share of visitors who traveled between 100-250 miles to Lincoln Financial Field doubled (from 6.0% to 12.0%) – likely thanks to the D.C. area fans who made the trip to cheer on the Washington Commanders in 2025. The share of attendees who traveled between 30-100 miles also increased in 2025 relative to 2023 (23.4% vs. 21.5%), which could reflect visitors from areas adjacent to Philadelphia and Washington D.C. who also support one of the two competing NFC East teams.
During the upcoming Super Bowl at Caesars Stadium in New Orleans, LA, neither team will have home-field advantage. But if past Super Bowls provide any indication, a sizable local audience is to be expected, along with fans traveling from the teams’ hometowns and other large population centers.
Analyzing the audience segmentation of the stadium visitors at the 2023 and 2025 AFC and NFC Championships can provide further insight into the fans that were in attendance – and those who might attend the Super Bowl.
Despite the geographical distance between GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in the Midwest and Lincoln Financial Field in the Mid-Atlantic, their audiences during these high-profile contests were surprisingly similar. Trade area analysis of the two stadiums combined with the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset revealed that the “Ultra Wealthy Families,” “Upper Suburban Diverse Families,” “Wealthy Suburban Families,” and “Young Professionals” segments were the largest audience groups in the captured markets of both stadiums for the 2023 and 2025 Conference Championships. (A venue’s captured market refers to the census block groups (CBGs) from which it draws its visitors, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each one – and thus reflects the profile of the venue’s visitor base.)
This suggests that despite regional differences and ticket-price differentials, for the biggest games, fans in the stands come from relatively similar households. This may also be the case for the Super Bowl, which rotates annually between NFL stadiums.
Moving on from the Conference Championships, the stakes will be even higher this coming Sunday at Super Bowl LIX. How will visitation and demographic patterns stack up?Visit Placer.ai to find out.
Placer.ai observes a panel of mobile devices in order to extrapolate and generate visitation insights for a variety of locations across the U.S. This panel covers only visitors from within the United States and does not represent or take into account international visitors.
Downtown districts in the nation’s major cities attract domestic travelers all year long with their iconic sights, lively entertainment, and diverse dining offerings. But each hub follows its own rhythm, shaped by distinct seasonal peaks and dips in visitor flow.
This white paper examines downtown hotel visitation patterns in four of the nation’s most popular destinations for domestic tourists: Miami, Chicago, New York, and Los Angeles. Focusing on 20 downtown hotels in each city, the analysis explores seasonal variations in domestic travel, city-specific dynamics, and differentiating factors.
Domestic tourism has rebounded strongly in recent years, and hotels in Miami and Chicago have been the biggest beneficiaries. In 2024, visits to analyzed hotels in each of these cities’ downtown areas grew by 8.9% and 7.4%, respectively, compared to 2023. Meanwhile, hotels in downtown and midtown Manhattan saw a more modest 2.0% increase, while Los Angeles experienced a slight year-over-year (YoY) decline in downtown hotel visits.
One factor that may be driving Miami and Chicago’s stronger performance is their higher proportion of long-distance visitors, defined as those visiting from over 250 miles away. Miami remains a top destination for snowbirds and spring breakers, while Chicago serves as a cultural and entertainment hub for the sprawling Midwest. These long-distance leisure travelers may be more likely to splurge on downtown hotel stays during their trips, helping drive hotel visit growth in the two cities.
By contrast, hotels in the Los Angeles and Manhattan city centers drew lower shares of domestic travelers coming from less than 250 miles away. These shorter-haul domestic tourists may be less likely to splurge on downtown hotels than those taking longer vacations. Both cities are also surrounded by numerous regional getaway options that can draw long-haul leisure travelers away from their downtown cores.
Each of the four analyzed cities has its own unique ebbs and flows – and city center hotel visits reflect these patterns. Miami, with its warm, sunny climate, experiences influxes of tourists during the winter and spring, with March seeing the biggest jump in downtown hotel visits last year (13.0% above the monthly visit average). Chicago, which thrives in the summer with its many festivals and events, saw its biggest downtown hotel visit bump in August. Meanwhile, Manhattan experienced a major uptick in December, likely fueled by holiday tourism and New Year celebrations, and Los Angeles visits were highest in the summertime.
What drives these seasonal visit peaks? Miami has long been a top tourism destination, especially in early spring, when snowbirds and spring breakers flock to the city for sun and relaxation. In recent years, the city has seen a rise in short-term domestic tourism, suggesting that the city is becoming increasingly popular for weekend getaways. According to the Placer.ai Tourism Dashboard, the share of domestic tourists staying just one or two nights grew from 71.7% in March 2022 to 78.3% in March 2024.
This shift aligns with an impressive increase in the magnitude of downtown Miami’s springtime hotel visit peak: In March 2022, visits to downtown hotels were 5.0% above the monthly average for the year, a share that more than doubled by 2024 to 12.9%.
These numbers may mean that more people are choosing to head to Miami for a quick break from the cold – and staying in downtown hotels to make the most of their short getaway.
Chicago’s major August visit spike was likely driven by the Windy City’s impressive lineup of major summer festivals, from Lollapalooza to the Chicago Air and Water Show, which draw thousands of attendees from across the country.
Lollapalooza fueled the largest visit spike to the city – between Thursday, August 1st and Sunday, August 4th, visits to downtown Chicago hotels surged between 51.1% and 63.8% above 2024 daily averages for those days of the week. The Air and Water Show and the Chicago Jazz Festival also generated significant hotel visit increases – highlighting the boost these events bring to the city’s tourism and hospitality sector.
The Big Apple draws a diverse mix of visitors throughout the year. But in December – the city’s peak tourist season – visitors pour in from all over the country to skate in Rockefeller Center, browse Fifth Avenue’s festive window displays and experience the city’s unique holiday magic.
And analyzing data from hotels in midtown and downtown Manhattan reveals a striking shift in the types of visitors who stay in the heart of NYC during the holiday season. While visitors from other urban centers dominated downtown hotel stays throughout most of the year – accounting for 47.9% of visits from January to November 2024 – their share dropped to 42.0% in December 2024. Meanwhile, the share of guests from suburban areas and small towns rose from 37.3% to 41.0%, and the share of guests from rural and semi-rural areas nearly doubled, from 3.5% to 6.1%.
These patterns suggest that, though Manhattan typically attracts a wide range of visitors, the holiday season is uniquely appealing to tourists from smaller towns and suburban areas. Understanding these trends can provide crucial context for hotels and civic stakeholders alike as they work to maximize the opportunities presented by the city’s December visit surge.
Los Angeles hotels also experience significant demographic shifts during peak season. In July, visits to downtown LA hotels surged by 15.3% relative to the 2024 monthly visit average. And a closer look at audience segmentation data suggests a corresponding surge in the share of "Flourishing Families" – an Experian: Mosaic segment consisting of affluent, middle-aged households with children. Throughout the year, "Flourishing Families" comprised between 7.7% and 8.7% of the census block groups (CBGs) driving visits to downtown LA hotels. But in July, this share jumped to 9.9%.
These families may be taking advantage of summer vacations to enjoy Los Angeles’ cultural attractions and entertainment. Hotels and city stakeholders who understand the appeal the city holds for this demographic can better cater to them through family-friendly promotions and strategic marketing efforts to target these households.
Downtowns are making a comeback – and hotels in the heart of the nation’s major tourist hubs are reaping the benefits. By understanding who frequents these downtown hotels and when, local businesses and civic leaders can optimize their resource management and strategic planning to make the most of these opportunities.
The New York office scene is buzzing once again, as companies from JPMorgan to Meta double down on return-to-office (RTO) mandates. But just how did New York office foot traffic fare in 2024? How did Big Apple office foot traffic compare to that of other major business hubs nationwide? And how is New York’s office recovery impacting post-COVID trends like the TGIF work week? Are office visits still concentrated mid-week, or are people coming in more on Fridays and Mondays? And how has Manhattan’s RTO affected local commuting patterns?
We dove into the data to find out.
In 2024, New York City cemented its position as the nationwide leader in office recovery. Thanks in part to remote work crackdowns by banking behemoths like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan, visits to NYC office buildings in 2024 were just 13.1% below pre-pandemic (2019) levels.
For comparison, Miami’s office foot traffic remained 16.2% below pre-pandemic levels, while Atlanta, Washington D.C., and Boston saw significantly larger gaps at 28.6%, 37.8%, and 43.9%, respectively.
Perhaps unsurprisingly given the Big Apple’s robust year-over-five-year (Yo5Y) recovery, the pace of year-over-year (YoY) visit growth to NYC office buildings was somewhat slower in 2024 than in other major East Coast business centers. Still, New York’s YoY office recovery rate of 12.4% outpaced the nationwide baseline, and came in just slightly below Washington, D.C.’s 15.2% and Atlanta’s 14.6%.
Interestingly, New York’s return to office has not led to a significant retreat from the TGIF work week that emerged during COVID. In 2024, just 11.9% of weekday (Monday to Friday) visits to NYC offices took place on Fridays – only slightly more than the 11.5% recorded in 2023 and significantly below the pre-pandemic baseline of 17.2%.
Meanwhile, Monday has quietly regained its footing as the dreaded start of the New York work week. After dropping significantly in 2022 and 2023, the share of weekday office visits taking place on Mondays rebounded to 18.2% in 2024 – just slightly below 2019’s 19.5%. Still, Tuesday remained the Big Apple’s busiest in-office day of the week last year, accounting for nearly a quarter (24.6%) of weekday NYC office foot traffic.
And diving into Yo5Y data for each day of the work week shows just how much New York’s overall recovery is driven by mid-week visits – and especially Tuesday ones. In 2024, Friday visits to NYC office buildings were down 40.2% compared to 2019. But on Tuesdays, visits were essentially on par with pre-pandemic levels (-0.3%), even as nationwide office visits remained 24.6% below 2019.
Another post-COVID trend that has shown staying power in New York is the growing share of office visits coming from employees who live nearby. As hybrid schedules become the norm, it seems that those commuting more frequently are often just a short subway ride -or even a stroll- away.
The share of NYC office workers coming from less than five miles away, for example, has risen steadily since COVID, reaching 46.0% in 2024. Over the same period, the share of workers coming from 5-10 miles, 10-15 miles, or 25+ miles away has declined.
Looking at commuting trends across the East Coast helps put New York City’s shift into perspective. In 2019, NYC’s share of nearby commuters was on par with Washington, D.C. and slightly below Boston. But while both cities experienced moderate increases in local commuters between 2019 and 2024, New York pulled ahead, outpacing all other analyzed cities in its share of nearby office workers last year.
Miami and Atlanta – two other standout cities in office recovery – also saw significant growth in the percentage of short-distance commuters over the past five years. This trend underscores a broader shift: As hybrid work reshapes commuting habits, employees across multiple markets are more likely to go into the office if they live nearby, reducing reliance on long-haul commutes.
As the nation’s office recovery leader, New York offers a glimpse into what other cities can expect as office visitation rates continue to improve. Even at just 13.1% below pre-pandemic levels, NYC office visit levels continue to rise. And as recovery nears completion, trends that took hold during COVID remain firmly entrenched.
The full-service dining segment has experienced its fair share of challenges over the past few years, with pandemic-era closures, rising food and labor costs, and cutbacks in discretionary spending contributing to visit lags. In 2024, visits were down 0.2% year over year (YoY) and remained 8.4% below 2019 levels – a reflection of the significant number of venues that permanently closed over COVID and a testament to the industry's ongoing struggle to regain its pre-pandemic footing.
Yet, even in a difficult environment, some full-service restaurant (FSR) chains are thriving. These brands aren’t waiting for the industry to rebound – they're becoming trendsetters in their own right, proving that stand-out strategy is everything in a challenging market.
This white paper explores brands that are harnessing three key differentiators – fixed-price value offerings, elevated social experiences, and a laser focus on product – to drive full-service dining success in 2025.
One of the most defining trends over the past few years has been the unrelenting march of price increases. And as consumers continue to seek out ways to save, some chains are staying ahead of the pack with fixed-price value offerings that help diners squeeze out the very best bang for their buck.
Golden Corral, the all-you-can-eat buffet chain that lets kids under three eat for free, is one FSR that is benefiting from consumers’ current value orientation. Despite closing several locations in 2024, overall visits to the chain still tracked closely with 2023 levels, declining by just 0.5% – while the average number visits to each Golden Corral restaurant grew 3.8% YoY.
Golden Corral’s value proposition is resonating strongly with budget-conscious Americans eager to enjoy a wide variety of comfort foods at an affordable price. The chain’s visitors tend to come from trade areas with lower median household incomes (HHIs) than traditional full-service restaurant (FSR) diners. And these patrons are willing to travel to enjoy the chain’s value buffet offerings, many of which are situated in rural areas and may require a longer drive. In 2024, 25.2% of Golden Corral’s diners came from over 30 miles away – compared to just 19.2% for the wider FSR segment.
Golden Corral’s continued flourishing proves that in an era of rising costs, diners are willing to go the extra mile (literally) for a restaurant that delivers both quality and affordability.
Children’s party space and eatertainment destination Chuck E. Cheese has had a transformative few years. Following the retirement of its iconic animatronic band, the chain shifted its focus to a new membership model, announcing a revamped Summer of Fun pass in May 2024 – including unlimited visits over a two-month period, steep discounts on food, and up to 250 games per day. The pass proved incredibly popular, with YoY visits surging by 15.6% in May 2024, when the offer launched – a sharp turnaround from the YoY visit declines of the previous months. Recognizing the strong demand, Chuck E. Cheese extended the program year-round – and the strategy has paid off as YoY visits remained positive through the end of 2024.
A closer look at the data suggests that parents are making full use of their unlimited passes: The share of weekday visits was higher in H2 2024 than in H2 2023, likely due to families using their passes for weekday entertainment rather than reserving visits for weekends and special occasions.
At the same time, the share of repeat visitors – those frequenting the chain at least twice a month – also grew. Although these repeat visitors may not purchase additional gameplay beyond the flat fee, their more frequent on-site presence likely translates into increased sales of pizza and other menu items.
While value has been a major motivator for restaurant-goers in recent years, low prices aren’t the only drivers of FSR success. Brands offering unique experiences aimed at maximizing social interaction are also seeing outsized gains.
Though many of these more innovative venues tend to be on the more expensive side, they draw enthusiastic crowds willing to pony up for concepts that combine good food with fun social occasions. And some of the more successful ones bolster perceived value through offerings like fixed-price menus or club memberships.
Korean cuisine has been on the rise in recent years, with restaurants like Bonchon Chicken and GEN Korean BBQ House making significant waves in the dining space. Another chain drawing attention is KPOT Korean BBQ and Hot Pot, which began modestly in 2018 and has since expanded to over 150 locations nationwide.
Diners at KPOT can customize their meals by selecting from a variety of proteins, broths, sauces, and side dishes, known as banchan, while barbecuing or cooking in a hotpot at their table and sipping on the drinks from the menu’s extensive selection. And though pricier than Golden Corral, KPOT also offers an all-you-can-eat experience that lets customers squeeze the most value out of their indulgence.
Location intelligence shows that KPOT’s experiential dining model is resonating with customers: Since Q4 2019, the average number of visits to each KPOT location has risen steadily – even as the chain has grown its footprint – while the average dwell time has also increased. Indeed, rather than a quick dining stop, KPOT has become a destination for guests to linger, enjoying both food and drinks – and an interactive and social experience.
By positioning themselves as gathering places for fine wine aficionados, wine-club-focused concepts such as Postino WineCafe and Cooper’s Hawk Winery are also benefiting from today’s consumers’ emphasis on social experiences. The two upscale dining destinations offer club memberships that combine periodic wine releases with a variety of perks.
And the data suggests that the model is strongly resonating with diners. Both Postino and Cooper’s Hawk have grown their footprints over the past year, driving substantial YoY chain-wide visit increases while average visits per location grew as well – showing that the expansions and experiential offerings are meeting robust demand.
And analyzing the two chains’ captured markets shows that the wine club model enjoys broad appeal across a variety of audience segments.
Unsurprisingly, both wine clubs’ visitor bases include higher-than-average shares of affluent consumers with money to spend, including Experian: Mosaic’s “Power Elite”, “Booming with Confidence”, and “Flourishing Families” segments (the nation’s wealthiest families, as well as affluent suburban and middle-aged households). But the two chains also attract younger, more budget-conscious consumers – Postino, which has many downtown locations, is popular among “Singles and Starters”, while Cooper’s Hawk is popular among “Promising Families” - i.e. young couples with children.
The success of the two brands across various segments underscores the impact of a distinctive experience – especially when paired with a loyalty-boosting membership – in attracting today’s consumers.
Value offerings and unique experiences have the power to drive restaurant visits – but ultimately, a good meal in an inviting atmosphere is a draw in and of itself, as is shown by the success of First Watch and Firebirds Wood Fired Grill.
Breakfast-only restaurant First Watch excels at ambiance and menu innovation, changing up its offerings five times a year and striving to maintain a neighborhood feel at each of its locations.
First Watch has made a point of leaning into its strengths, eschewing discounts in favor of a consistently elevated dining experience and doubling down its strongest day part (weekend brunch), rather than trying to artificially drive up interest at other times.
And the strategy appears to be working: In 2024, visits to First Watch increased 6.6% YoY – with Saturdays and Sundays between 11:00 A.M. and 1:00 P.M. remaining its busiest dayparts by far. Visitors to First Watch also tend to linger over their meals more than at other breakfast chains – in 2024, the restaurant experienced an average dwell time of 54.9 minutes, significantly longer than the 48.7-minute average at other breakfast-focused restaurants.
By focusing on what matters most to its diners – innovative and exciting food and a welcoming atmosphere that allows patrons to enjoy their meals at a leisurely pace – First Watch is continuing to flourish.
Another chain that is growing its footprint and its audience on the strength of a menu and ambiance-focused approach is Firebirds Wood Fired Grill. The chain, known for its “polished casual” vibe and bold, unique flavors, added several new restaurants last year, leading to a 6.5% increase in overall visits. Over the same period, the average number of visits to each Firebirds location held steady – showing that the new restaurants aren’t cannibalizing existing business.
The chain’s success may rest, in part, on its locating its venues in areas rife with enthusiastic foodies. Data from Spatial.ai’s FollowGraph shows that in 2024, Firebird’s trade areas had significantly higher shares of “BBQ Lovers”, “Gourmet Burger Lovers,” and “Foodies” than the nationwide average. This suggests that Firebirds is attracting diners who prioritize the experience of eating – key for a chain that prides itself on putting good food first. The chain is also known for its welcoming decor and design – another aspect that may lead to its strong visit success.
Necessity often serves as the mother of invention, and challenging economic periods continue to spark new trends and innovations in the dining scene. From a heightened focus on value – drawing families and lower-HHI consumers willing to travel for a good deal – to the growing appeal of social dining and the timeless draw of good food – new trends are emerging to meet changing consumer expectations.
