.svg)
Visits to Starbucks usually spike on its annual Red Cup Day, as patrons flock to the chain to order a specialty holiday beverage and receive a complimentary reusable red cup. But last year, the chain’s Red Cup Day performance was relatively muted – although foot traffic still got a boost, the jump was not quite as significant as in previous years. Was the promotion more effective in 2024? We dove into the data to find out.
Starbucks’ Red Cup Day came roaring back in 2024, with Thursday, November 14th – the day of the promotion – receiving 42.4% more visits than the recent Thursday daily visit average. And Red Cup Day didn’t just drive visits relative to a regular weekday – the promotion brought a 9.4% lift in overall weekly visits to Starbucks during the week of the event.
The relative visit bump was significantly higher than on Red Cup Day 2023 – when visits on Thursday, November 16th 2023 were only 25.0% higher than the previous five Thursday averages – and even outshined the already strong performance of Red Cup Day 2022.
As usual, Red Cup Day at Starbucks drove a larger visit spike than the launch of the chain’s popular Pumpkin Spice Latte (PSL): During the week of the PSL launch, visits rose 9.7% compared to the first week of H2 (July 1st-7th 2024), while Red Cup Day drove a 12.9% foot traffic bump relative to that same baseline.
Nevertheless, the recent data also indicates that the PSL remains a seasonal fan favorite – Starbucks received more weekly visits on the PSL’s arrival week than it did when it launched the holiday menu, when visits increased 6.7% relative to the beginning of H2.
This year’s Red Cup Day followed several weeks of year-over-year (YoY) visit dips at Starbucks, with weekly foot traffic between September 2nd and November 10th 2024 down an average of 4.4% YoY. But the success of the promotion – which drove YoY visit growth for the first time since August – showcases Starbucks’ expertise at driving visits by owning the calendar.
The chain has succeeded in establishing a yearly buzz around its branded cups that drive visits during what would otherwise be an off-season for the chain. And even this year, when consumers seem to be tightening their purse strings and cutting down on discretionary spending ahead of the holidays, Red Cup Day still managed to drive patrons to Starbucks stores in search of holiday beverages and free swag.
How will Starbucks perform throughout the end of 2024?
Visit placer.ai to find out.
How did leading eatertainment chains Dave & Buster’s and Chuck E. Cheese perform in Q3 2024? We dove into the data to find out.
Since January 2024, Dave & Buster’s has enjoyed mainly positive YoY visit growth, fueled in part by the eatertainment leader’s continued expansion. In Q2 and Q3 2024, visits to the chain were up 3.2% and 7.3%, respectively. And though YoY foot traffic to the chain slowed down in Q3 2024, a look at Dave & Buster’s monthly visit patterns shows that this may have been due in part to a summer visit peak that was slightly lower – but more extended – than that seen last year.
In 2023, Dave & Buster’s experienced three distinct visit spikes – in March, July, and December – with the restaurant’s 14.6% July visit boost (compared to a monthly average for Jan. ‘23 - Oct. ‘24) preceded by a relatively quiet June (+2.0%). But this year, summer foot traffic began to trend upwards earlier, with both June and July seeing substantial upticks – 13.6% and 13.4%, respectively. (June is in Q2 and so this part of the uptick would not have been included in Q3 foot traffic numbers). And though September, usually a down period for Dave & Buster’s, saw a modest drop in visitors compared to 2023, the chain’s March peak was higher than last year’s.
Digging even deeper into the data shows that even as YoY quarterly visits to Dave & Buster’s remained flat in Q3 2024, mid-week visits to the chain continued to climb. Dave & Buster’s has been investing heavily in mid-week promotions meant to drive traffic during quieter periods, and its efforts are clearly paying off. On Wednesdays, Dave & Buster’s offers a 50% discount on games – and the average number of Wednesday visits to the chain were up 7.0% YoY. Thursdays, too, saw an 11.3% YoY foot traffic increase, likely fueled by diners drawn to Thursday specials as the most intensive part of the work week wound down. (In Q3 2024, July 4th fell on a Thursday, which also generated a significant visit bump – but even when discounting the week of the holiday, Thursday visits were up 6.4% on average.)
Against the backdrop of solid seasonal peaks and impressive mid-week visitation trends, Dave & Buster’s appears poised to enjoy a robust December – another important seasonal milestone for the restaurant. And keep an eye out for the week after Christmas, traditionally Dave & Buster’s busiest week of the year: Last year, the week starting December 25th drove a 65.0% visit spike to the chain compared to a 2023 weekly average.
Speaking of promotions – Chuck E. Cheese is another eatertainment leader that has been finding success by leaning into special deals, making it easier for price-conscious consumers to treat their kids to pizza and fun.
Following a lackluster start to the year, YoY visits to Chuck E. Cheese began trending upwards in May 2024 and have remained elevated ever since. Between June and August 2024, foot traffic to Chuck E. Cheese was up between 20.1% and 26.8% compared to the equivalent period of 2023. And though the pace of visit growth began to taper in September as kids went back to school, visits remained substantially higher than last year.
What’s behind Chuck E. Cheese’s summer flourishing? A look at shifts in loyalty trends at the chain suggests that the success of this year’s Summer Fun Pass may be a big part of the story.
On average, the share of loyal visitors to Chuck E. Cheese – i.e. those frequenting the restaurant at least twice in a month – tends to range between five and seven percent. Last summer, this percentage increased to 8.1%, as parents sought out indoor activities to keep kids occupied when school was out. But this year’s summer loyalty spike – just over 12.0% in both June and July – was significantly higher.
Though Chuck E. Cheese also offered a Summer Fun Pass last year, this year’s deal provided even greater value – including unlimited visits over a two-month period, steep discounts on food, and up to 250 games per day. And the promotion was such a smashing success that Chuck E. Cheese has launched a new unlimited-visit pass meant to make frequent trips to the chain more affordable for families all year round. As the kids’ eatertainment leader continues to revamp its offerings – remodeling locations and adding new activities like indoor trampolines – Chuck E. Cheese appears poised to keep drawing the crowds.
Today’s cautious consumers are always on the lookout for ways to save – and eatertainment chains are paying attention. Will Dave & Buster’s post-Christmas visit spike outperform last year’s? And will Chuck E. Cheese’s new unlimited play model continue to drive traffic throughout Q4?
Follow Placer.ai’s data driven analyses to find out.
Shoppers continue to prioritize value in 2024, offering opportunities for discount and dollar stores to thrive during the upcoming holiday season.
With that in mind, we took a look at visitation metrics – both from 2024 and from previous years – to see how the segment is performing and what the crucial holiday season might hold for discount retailers Dollar Tree and Dollar General.
Discount and dollar stores continue to benefit from an inflation-impacted economy, with category leaders like Dollar Tree and Dollar General continuing to expand their footprints to serve the increasing number of budget-conscious shoppers.
And in large part thanks to the increased store count, visits to Dollar Tree and Dollar General have continued to increase – Q3 2024 visits to the chains were up by 5.3% and 4.8% YoY, respectively. Monthly visits also showed impressive growth, with October 2024 visits up by 7.6% at Dollar Tree and 7.8% at Dollar General. These growth numbers may be slightly lower than the visit increases posted by the category in the past – but the ongoing positive performance by discount & dollar store leaders indicates that the category remains one of the most consistently strong players in the wider retail space.
November and December are typically the most important months for retailers as multiple shopping events – Turkey Wednesday, Black Friday, Christmas Eve Eve, and Boxing Day – drive consumers to the tills. And while many retailers open the holiday season with visit spikes driven by big Black Friday discounts, the visitation patterns look slightly different at discount chains, where prices are already low and discounts are – as their name implies – already applied. So when do these retailers get their holiday visit boosts?
Comparing weekly visit numbers in 2021, 2022, and 2023 to each year’s weekly average reveals differences between the two discount & dollar store leaders. Visits to Dollar Tree gradually increase from early November onward and peak on the last full week before Christmas, likely driven by shoppers flocking to its stores to pick up snacks, gift wrap, and stocking stuffers. Meanwhile, Dollar General’s visits exhibited more stability – although visits were higher than average between Black Friday and Christmas Eve Eve, the increase was much more muted relative to Dollar Tree’s holiday spike. Dollar General’s softer holiday traffic may be due to the expansion of its Dollar General Market concept, which turned many of its stores into destinations for fresh foods – so consumers may be treating Dollar General more like a grocery store and less like a holiday shopping spot.
Previous years’ visitation patterns indicate that the busiest time of the year is still ahead for Dollar General and Dollar Tree. How will these retailers perform during the critical pre-Christmas rush? Visit Placer.ai to find out.
Heading into the Q3 2024 retailer reporting period, most expected Walmart to continue gaining market share from essentials-focused retailers. In our coverage of Walmart’s Q2 2024 update, we highlighted the chain’s significant disruption in the grocery category, driven by everyday low pricing, Walmart+ store delivery orders, store remodeling efforts, an improved selection of premium merchandise, and a broadened marketplace offering. These strategies notably boosted visits among higher-income households earning $100,000 or more annually.
While Walmart did indeed disrupt essentials retailers this quarter, what stood out even more was its impact across discretionary categories. Management reported low-single-digit comparable sales growth in general merchandise, with mid-single-digit unit growth offsetting low-to-mid single-digit price deflation. Categories like home, toys, and hardlines led this growth, complemented by strength in beauty, fashion, and apparel. Walmart’s marketplace played a key role in this success, offering consumers a broader selection of brands and items than in-store. Marketplace sales in beauty, toys, hardlines, and home each grew by 20% year-over-year.
To assess Walmart’s impact on other general merchandise retailers, we analyzed cross-visitation trends. Our data indicates that year-over-year cross-visitation between Walmart and other hardgoods retailers like Best Buy, GameStop, Lowe’s, Home Depot, Hibbett Sports, Sportsman Warehouse, and Big 5—as well as pet retailers like Petco and PetSmart—declined. This suggests a potential shift in consumer behavior, with shoppers consolidating more of their general merchandise purchases at Walmart.
To confirm Walmart's impact on general merchandise, we analyzed visitation trends across several discretionary categories from July to November 2024 (below). With the exceptions of beauty and home furnishings—more on that category in a minute—most categories experienced year-over-year declines throughout much of the August to October quarter. Notably, mid-October brought a temporary improvement in visit trends, coinciding with major promotional events such as Amazon’s Big Deal Days, Walmart’s Holiday Deals Event, and Target’s Circle Week, underscoring how deal-driven consumers are in today’s environment. Following these promotions, shopping activity largely paused until last week, when Black Friday deal announcements began to drive renewed interest.
Home furnishings deserve a closer look. Earlier this year, we noted strong visit trends in housewares retail, and that momentum has largely continued. Mattress retailers, which began the year on a high note, have also maintained positive year-over-year visitation growth in the second half of 2024. Notably, furniture retailers—both value-focused and full-priced—saw year-over-year visitation gains during the quarter, though there was a slight pause in November as consumers waited for Black Friday deals.
These trends align with the third-quarter 2024 update from Williams-Sonoma, where management highlighted improvements in furniture sales at its West Elm and Pottery Barn brands. Additionally, the company cited strength in seasonal items and housewares, suggesting that Walmart’s strong performance in the home category reflects both broader industry trends and its own merchandising improvements. These patterns may also mark the early stages of a new home furnishings cycle as we near the five-year anniversary of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Walmart’s strong performance in discretionary categories serves as a warning to other discretionary retailers to elevate their strategies ahead of the holiday shopping season. With in-store merchandise enhancements and a robust third-party marketplace offering access to over 700 million stock-keeping units (SKUs), Walmart is positioned to be even more competitive this holiday season.
With the rise of hybrid and remote work, we’ve observed a notable shift in everyday consumer behaviors, particularly around fitness, shopping, running errands, and grabbing takeout. Without the need to commute on certain days, it’s easier for consumers to squeeze in a workout or make a quick trip to a store. Local outdoor shopping centers have become prime beneficiaries of this new “pop-in, pop-out” behavior. Here, we explore some of the brands poised to thrive in this evolving landscape.
At the start of this year, we predicted that the beauty category boom we witnessed last year would persist, with wellness and self-care becoming integral parts of that definition. For many, self-care includes a good workout, whether low-impact or high-intensity. We've previously highlighted fitness trends, with brands like Club Pilates and Orangetheory Fitness continuing to demonstrate year-over-year growth. A perfect post-workout activity might include a massage or chiropractic session to ease sore muscles or restore alignment—services that have driven increased traffic for brands like Massage Envy and Joint Chiropractic. Another standout is Madison Reed, which offers "salon results without salon cost or time" and continues to expand its footprint.
The next group of brands stands out for their ubiquity—you’re likely to find one or more of these stores in any local outdoor shopping center. UPS is indispensable for shipping and returning items, serving as a go-to for everyday logistics. Meanwhile, telecommunications and internet service providers like AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, and Xfinity maintain a steady customer base, driven by the regular upgrade cycle for cell phones and service plans.
Another home improvement and furnishings replacement cycle may be upon us. Pandemic-driven nesting behaviors accelerated demand in previous years, but now, many consumers are cautiously approaching this phase. Instead of investing in big-ticket items like dining or living room furniture, there’s growing enthusiasm for budget-friendly updates, such as applying a fresh coat of paint. Sherwin-Williams stands out as a key player, experiencing increased foot traffic. This rise in paint store visits could signal a positive trend for future investments in home improvement, redecorating, and refurnishing.
Next, we have some tasty additions perfect for local outdoor shopping centers. Americans’ love affair with chicken shows no signs of slowing down. Dave’s Hot Chicken has developed a cult following for its juicy, flavorful chicken, while Raising Cane’s draws loyal fans for its irresistible tenders and signature sauce. Bb.q Chicken offers a unique twist, boasting over a dozen wing flavors, including Caribbean Spice, Hot Mala, and Cheesling cheese dust.
With Black Friday just a week away, it's the perfect time to reflect on the state of retail and what lies ahead over the next 28 days as consumers prepare for holiday gatherings, celebrations, and gift-giving. The retail industry in 2024 has been anything but consistent—some categories continue to thrive, others have struggled, and a few are clawing their way back to prominence.
This year’s holiday season is likely to follow a similar pattern, but the key differentiator is time. As we highlighted in our TL;DR newsletter on LinkedIn this week, the 2024 holiday shopping period has five fewer days compared to last year, reminiscent of the 2019 vs. 2018 holiday timeline. Holiday shopping kicked off earlier this year, with department stores seeing increased activity in October. With a condensed holiday window, it’s now up to retailers to drive more frequent visits and encourage consumers to linger longer in their stores.
Analyzing daily visits during last year’s holiday season, there were five weekends compared to four this year. Across key holiday gifting retail categories in 2023, those five weekends (Saturday and Sunday combined) accounted for 39% of total holiday season visits, defined as Thanksgiving Day through Christmas Eve. Individually, each weekend contributed between 7% and 9% of total sector visitation, with the last two weekends each capturing 9%. In 2024, each weekend would need to account for approximately 10% of total holiday season visits to match last year’s pace.
One advantage of having fewer weekends between Thanksgiving and Christmas is the reduction in lull periods, which are traditionally challenging for retailers trying to attract visitors. This year, two of the four weekends include Black Friday weekend and Super Saturday. In 2023, Black Friday alone accounted for 7% of total holiday visitation across the analyzed sectors, meaning a strong Black Friday could help offset the impact of having fewer weekends. By sector, Black Friday holds particular importance for department stores and consumer electronics retailers, as they typically see a higher share of visits on that day compared to other categories.
Another way to offset the five fewer shopping days? Increasing the time consumers spend in stores. In 2023, dwell times during Black Friday weekend (Thursday–Sunday) were, on average, three minutes longer than the full-year average across the analyzed sectors. Department stores had the largest gap, with visitors staying six minutes longer than average on Black Friday, followed by consumer electronics, superstores, and beauty retailers. These sectors are among the most popular for holiday shoppers during Black Friday weekend, making it encouraging that visitors stayed longer while seeking holiday deals.
A final advantage for physical retail is that fewer shopping days mean a shorter delivery window for e-commerce. With less time to shop, the holidays could sneak up on consumers, potentially driving more visitors into stores this year. While this is purely speculative, our enthusiasm for physical retail at Placer compels us to make at least one bold prediction!
Starbucks. Amazon. Barclays. AT&T. UPS. These are just some of the major corporations that have made waves in recent months with return-to-office (RTO) mandates requiring employees to show up in person more often – some of them five days a week.
But how are crackdowns like these taking shape on the ground? Is the office recovery still underway, or has it run its course? And how are evolving in-office work patterns impacting commuting hubs and dining trends? This white paper dives into the data to assess the state of office recovery in 2024 – and to explore what lies ahead for the sector in 2025.
In 2024, office foot traffic continued its slow upward climb, with visits to the Placer.ai Office Index down just 34.3% compared to 2019. (In other words, visits to the Placer.ai Office Index were 65.7% of their pre-COVID levels). And zooming in on year-over-year (YoY) trends reveals that office visits grew by 10.0% in 2024 compared to 2023 – showing that employee (and manager) pushback notwithstanding, the RTO is still very much taking place.
Indeed, diving into quarterly office visit fluctuations since Q4 2019 shows that office visits have been on a slow, steady upward trajectory since Q2 2020, following – at least since 2022 – a fairly consistent seasonal pattern. In Q1, Q2, and Q3 of each year, office visit levels increased steadily before dipping in holiday-heavy Q4 – only to recover to an even higher start-of-year baseline in the following Q1.
Between Q1 and Q3 2022, for example, the post pandemic office visit gap (compared to a Q4 2019 baseline) narrowed from 63.1% to 47.5%. It then widened temporarily in Q4 before reaching a new low – 41.4% – in Q1 2023. The same pattern repeated itself in both 2023 and 2024. So even though Q4 2024 saw a predictable visit decline, the first quarter of Q1 2025 may well set a new RTO record – especially given the slew of strict RTO mandates set to take effect in Q1 at companies like AT&T and Amazon.
Despite the ongoing recovery, the TGIF work week – which sees remote-capable employees concentrating office visits midweek and working remotely on Fridays – remains more firmly entrenched than ever.
In 2024, just 12.3% of office visits took place on Fridays – less than in 2022 (13.3%) and on par with 2023 (12.4%). Though Fridays were always popular vacation days – after all, why not take a long weekend if you can – this shift represents a significant departure from the pre-COVID norm, which saw Fridays accounting for 17.3% of weekday office visits.
Unsurprisingly, Tuesdays and Wednesdays remained the busiest in-office days of the week, followed by Thursdays. And Mondays saw a slight resurgence in visit share – up to 17.9% from 16.9% in 2023 – suggesting that as the RTO progresses, Manic Mondays are once again on the agenda.
Indeed, a closer look at year-over-five-year (Yo5Y) visit trends throughout the work week shows that on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, 2024 office foot traffic was down just 24.3% and 26.9%, respectively, compared to 2019 levels. The Thursday visit gap registered at 30.3%, while the Monday gap came in at 40.5%.
But on Fridays, offices were less than half as busy as they were in 2019 – with foot traffic down a substantial 53.2% compared to 2019.
Before COVID, long commutes on crowded subways, trains, and buses were a mainstay of the nine-to-five grind. But the rise of remote and hybrid work put a dent in rush hour traffic – leading to a substantial slowdown in the utilization of public transportation. As the office recovery continues to pick up steam, examining foot traffic patterns at major ground transportation commuting hubs, such as Penn Station in New York or Union Station in Washington, D.C., offers additional insight into the state of RTO.
Rush hour, for one thing – especially in the mornings – isn’t quite what it used to be. In 2024, overall visits to ground transportation hubs were down 25.0% compared to 2019. But during morning rush hour – weekdays between 6:00 AM and 9:00 AM – visits were down between 44.6% and 53.0%, with Fridays (53.0%) and Mondays (49.7%) seeing the steepest drops. Even as people return to the office, it seems, many may be coming in later – leaning into their biological clocks and getting more sleep. And with today’s office-goers less likely to be suburban commuters than in the past (see below), hubs like Penn Station aren’t as bustling first thing in the morning as they were pre-pandemic.
Evening rush hour, meanwhile, has been quicker to bounce back, with 2024 visit gaps ranging from 36.4% on Fridays to 30.0% on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. Office-goers likely form a smaller part of the late afternoon and evening rush hour crowd, which may include more travelers heading to a variety of places. And commuters going to work later in the day – including “coffee badgers” – may still be apt to head home between four and seven.
The drop in early-morning public transportation traffic may also be due to a shift in the geographical distribution of would-be commuters. Data from Placer.ai’s RTO dashboard shows that visits originating from areas closer to office locations have recovered faster than visits from farther away – indicating that people living closer to work are more likely to be back at their desks.
And analyzing the captured markets of major ground transportation hubs shows that the share of households from “Principal Urban Centers” (the most densely populated neighborhoods of the largest cities) rose substantially over the past five years. At the same time, the share of households from the “Suburban Periphery” dropped from 39.1% in 2019 to 32.7% in 2024. (A location’s captured market refers to the census block groups (CBGs) from which it draws its visitors, weighted to reflect the share of visits from each one – and thus reflects the profile of the location’s visitor base.)
This shift in the profile of public transportation consumers may explain the relatively slow recovery of morning transportation visits: City dwellers , who seem to be coming into the office more frequently than suburbanites, may not need to get as early a start to make it in on time.
While the RTO debate is often framed around employer and worker interests, what happens in the office doesn’t stay in the office. Office attendance levels leave their mark on everything from local real estate markets to nationwide relocation patterns. And industries from apparel to dining have undergone significant shifts in the face of evolving work routines.
Within the dining space, for example, fast-casual chains have always been workplace favorites. Offering quick, healthy, and inexpensive lunch options, these restaurants appeal to busy office workers seeking to fuel up during a long day at their desks.
Traditionally, the category has drawn a significant share of its traffic from workplaces. And after dropping during COVID, the share of visits to leading fast-casual brands coming from workplaces is once again on the rise.
In 2019, for example, 17.3% of visits to Chipotle came directly from workplaces, a share that fell to just 11.6% in 2022. But each year since, the share has increased – reaching 16.0% in 2024. Similar patterns have emerged at other segment leaders, including Jersey Mike’s Subs, Panda Express, and Five Guys. So as people increasingly go back to the office, they are also returning to their favorite lunch spots.
For many Americans, coffee is an integral part of the working day. So it may come as no surprise that shifting work routines are also reflected in visit patterns at leading coffee chains.
In 2019, 27.5% of visits to Dunkin’ and 20.1% of visits to Starbucks were immediately followed by a workplace visit, as many employees grabbed a cup of Joe on the way to work or popped out of the office for a midday coffee break. In the wake of COVID, this share dropped for both coffee leaders. But since 2022, it has been steadily rebounding – another sign of how the RTO is shaping consumer behavior beyond the office.
Five years after the pandemic upended work routines and supercharged the soft pants revolution, the office recovery story is still being written. Workplace attendance is still on the rise, and restaurants and coffee chains are in the process of reclaiming their roles as office mainstays. Still, office visit data and foot traffic patterns at commuting hubs show that the TGIF work week is holding firm – and that people aren’t coming in as early or from as far away as they used to. As new office mandates take effect in 2025, the office recovery and its ripple effects will remain a story to watch.
Many retail and dining chains performed well in 2024 despite the ongoing economic uncertainty. But with the consumer headwinds continuing into 2025, which brands can continue pulling ahead of the pack?
This report highlights 10 brands (in no particular order) that exhibit significant potential to grow in 2025 – as well as three chains that have faced some challenges in 2024 but appear poised to make a comeback in the year ahead. Which chains made the cut? Dive into the report to find out.
Through 2024, visits to Sprouts Farmers Market locations increased an average of 7.2% year-over-year (YoY) each month, outpacing the wider grocery segment standard by an average of six percentage points. And not only were visits up – monthly visits per location also grew YoY.
The promising coupling of overall and visits per location growth seems driven by the brands’ powerful understanding of who they are and what they bring to the market. The focus on high quality, fresh products is resonating, and the utilization of small- format locations is empowering the chain to bring locations to the doorstep of their ideal audiences.
This combination of forces positions the brand to better identify and reach key markets efficiently, offering an ideal path to continued growth. The result is a recipe for ongoing grocery success.
CAVA has emerged as a standout success story in the restaurant industry over the past several years. Traditionally, Mediterranean concepts have not commanded the same level of demand as burger, sandwich, Mexican, or Asian fast-casual concepts, which is why the category lacked a true national player until CAVA's rise. However, evolving consumer tastes have created a fertile landscape for Mediterranean cuisine to thrive, driven by factors such as social media influence, expanded food options via third-party delivery, growing demand for healthier choices, the rise of food-focused television programming, and the globalization of restaurant concepts .
CAVA’s success can be attributed to several key factors. Roughly 80% of CAVA locations were in suburban areas before the pandemic, aligning well with consumer migration and work-from-home trends. Additionally, CAVA was an early adopter of digital drive-thru lanes, similar to Chipotle’s "Chipotlanes," and began developing these store formats well before the pandemic. The brand has also utilized innovative tools like motion sensors in its restaurants to optimize throughput and staffing during peak lunchtime hours, enabling it to refine restaurant design and equipment placement as it expanded. CAVA’s higher employee retention rates have also contributed to its ability to maintain speed-of-service levels above category averages.
These strengths allowed CAVA to successfully enter new markets like Chicago in 2024. While many emerging brands have struggled to gain traction in new areas, CAVA’s visit-per-location metrics in recently entered markets have matched its national averages, positioning the brand for continued growth in 2025.
Ashley’s recent strategy shift to differentiate itself through experiential events, such as live music, workshops, and giveaways, is a compelling approach in the challenging consumer discretionary category. Post-pandemic, commercial property owners have successfully used community events to boost visit frequency, dwell time, and trade area size for mall properties. It’s no surprise that retailers like Ashley are adopting similar strategies to engage customers and enhance their in-store experience.
The decision to incorporate live events into its marketing strategy reflects the growing demand for experiential and immersive retail experiences. While home furnishings saw a surge in demand during the pandemic, the category has struggled over the past two years, underperforming other discretionary retail sectors compared to pre-pandemic levels. Recognizing this challenge, Ashley’s rebrand focuses on creating interactive and memorable experiences that allow customers to engage directly with its products and explore various design possibilities. In turn, this has helped to drive visits from trade areas with younger consumers with lower household incomes.
Ashley has leaned into collaborations with interior designers and industry experts to offer informative sessions and workshops during these events. These initiatives not only attract traffic but also provide valuable insights into customers’ preferences, which can be used to refine product offerings, enhance customer service, and shape future marketing efforts. This approach is particularly relevant as millennials and Gen Z drive new household formation. While still early, Ashley’s pivot to live events is showing promising results in attracting visits and increasing customer engagement.
Department stores have had many challenges in navigating changing consumer behavior and finding their place in an evolving retail landscape. Nordstrom, an example of department store success in 2024, has been able to maintain a strong brand relationship with its shoppers and regain its footing with its store fleet. While the chain has certainly benefited from catering to a more affluent, and less price sensitive, consumer base, it still shines in fostering a shopping experience that stands out.
Value might be a driver of retail visitation across the industry, but for Nordstrom, service and experience is paramount. The retailer has downplayed promotional activity in favor of driving loyalty among key visitors. Nordstrom also has captured higher shares of high-value, younger consumer segments, which defies commonly held thoughts about department stores. The chain was a top visited chain during Black Friday in 2024, showcasing that it’s top of mind for shoppers for both gift giving and self-gifting.
What’s next? Nordstrom announced at the end of December that it plans to go private with the help of Mexican retail chain Liverpool. We expect to see even more innovation in store experience, assortments and services with this newfound flexibility and investment. And, we cannot forget about Nordstrom Rack, which allows the retailer to still engage price-conscious shoppers of all income levels, which is certainly still a bright spot as we head into 2025.
Visits are up, and the audience visiting Sam’s Club locations seems to be getting younger which – when taken together – tells us a few critical things. First, Sam’s Club has parlayed its pandemic resurgence into something longer term, leveraging the value and experience it provides to create loyal customers. Second, the power of its offering is attracting a newer audience that had previously been less apt to take advantage of the unique Sam’s Club benefits.
The result is a retailer that is proving particularly adept at understanding the value of a visit. The membership club model incentives loyalty which means that once a visitor takes the plunge, the likelihood of more visits is heightened significantly. And the orientation to value, a longer visit duration, and a wide array of items on sale leads to a larger than normal basket size.
In a retail segment where the value of loyalty and owning ‘share of shopping list’ is at a premium, Sam’s Club is positioned for the type of success that builds a foundation for strength for years to come.
Raising Cane’s exemplifies the power of focus by excelling at a simple menu done exceptionally well. Over the past several years, the chain has been one of the fastest-growing in the QSR segment, driven by a streamlined menu that enhances speed and efficiency, innovative marketing campaigns, and strategic site selection in both new and existing markets. Notably, Raising Cane’s ranked among the top QSR chains for visit-per-location growth last year. Unlike many competitors that leaned on deep discounts or nostalgic product launches to boost traffic in 2024, Raising Cane’s relied on operational excellence to build brand awareness and drive visits. This approach has translated into some of the highest average unit sales in the segment, with restaurants averaging around $6 million in sales last year.
Raising Cane’s operational efficiency has also been a key driver of its rapid expansion, growing from 460 locations at the end of 2019 to more than 830 heading into 2025. This includes over 100 new store openings in 2024 alone, placing it among the top QSR chains for year-over-year visit growth. The chain’s ability to maintain exceptional performance while scaling rapidly highlights its strong foundation and operational strategy.
While Life Time has fitness at its core, it has also expanded to become a lifestyle. Healthy living is its mantra and this extends to both the gym aspect, but also the social health of its members with offerings like yoga, childcare, personalized fitness programs, coworking, and even an option for luxury living just steps away.
With all these choices, it’s no wonder that its members are more loyal than others in its peer group.
To the delight of book lovers everywhere, Barnes & Noble is back in force. With a presence in every single state and approximately 600 stores, location options are growing to browse bestsellers, chat with in-store bibliophiles, or grab a latte. Stores are feeling cozier and more local, with handwritten recommendations across the store. The chain’s extensive selection of gifts and toys mean that one can stop in for more than just books. The membership program is also relaunching, rewarding members for their purchases. Even though some locations have downsized, efficiency is up with average visits per square foot increasing over the last 3 years. Customers are also lingering, with nearly 3 in 10 visitors staying 45 minutes or longer.
With options for a “third place” that’s not home or work dwindling, Barnes & Noble is poised to fill that hole.
From its origins as a corner grocery store in Queens, NY 42 years ago, H Mart now boasts over 80 stores throughout the US. Shoppers are enticed by the aroma of hot roasted sweet potatoes wafting through the store, the opportunities to try new brands like Little Jasmine fruit teas, and the array of prepared foods such as gimbap and japchae. In addition to traditional Korean, Chinese, and Japanese groceries, H Mart’s assortment has expanded to staple items and American brands as well like Chobani yogurt or Doritos.
As the Hallyu wave sweeps across the nation and K-pop stars like Rose top the charts for the eight straight week with the catchy “APT”, so too is the appetite for Asian food. At the second-most visited H Mart in the nation in Carrollton, TX, the ethnic makeup of customers is 39% White, 14% Black, 23% Hispanic or Latino, and 20% Asian – reflecting the truly universal appeal of this supermarket chain.
Beauty retail had a transformative 2024, with a general cooling off in demand for the category. Competition between chains has increased and delivering quality products, expertise and services is critical to maintain visits. Against this backdrop, Bluemercury stands out as a shining star in parent company Macy’s portfolio of brands, with the brand well positioned to take on this next chapter of beauty retail.
Bluemercury’s success lies in its ability to be a retailer, an expert, and a spa service provider to its consumers. Placer data has shown that beauty chains with a service and retail component tend to attract more visitors than those who just specialize in retail offerings, and Bluemercury is no exception. The chain also focuses solely on the prestige market within the beauty industry and caters to higher income households compared to the broader beauty category; both of those factors have contributed to more elastic demand than with other retailers.
Bluemercury’s bet on product expertise and knowledge combined with a smaller format store help to foster a strong connection between the beauty retailer and its consumers. The brand overindexes with visitors “seeking youthful appearance” and has cemented itself as a destination for niche and emerging beauty brands. As the larger Macy’s brand grapples with its transformation, Bluemercury’s relevance and deep connection to its consumer base can serve as an inspiration, especially as the beauty industry faces mounting uncertainty.
Competitors like Dutch Bros and 7Brew are on the rise, critical office visitation patterns remain far behind pre-pandemic levels, and the chain did not end the year in the most amazing way in terms of visit performance. But there is still so much to love about Starbucks – and the addition of new CEO Brian Niccol positions the coffee giant to rebound powerfully.
The focused attention on leaning into its legendary ‘third place’ concept is in excellent alignment with the shift to the suburbs and hybrid work and with audiences that continue to show they value experience over convenience. But the convenience-oriented customer will likely also benefit from the brand’s recent initiatives, including pushes to improve staffing, mobile ordering alignment and menu simplification. In addition, the brand is still the gold standard when it comes to owning the calendar, as seen with their annual visit surges for the release of the Pumpkin Spice Latte or Red Cup Day and their ability to capitalize on wider retail holidays like Black Friday and Super Saturday.
The combination of the tremendous reach, brand equity, remaining opportunities in growing markets and the combined ability to address both convenience and experience oriented customers speaks to a unique capacity to regain lost ground and drive a significant resurgence against the expectations of many.
Retail has had its challenges this year, with many consumers opting for off-price to snag deals – but the strength of the Adidas brand should not be underestimated. Gazelles and Sambas are still highly coveted, and a partnership with Messi x Bad Bunny racked up over a million likes. Consumers are favoring classic silhouettes across both shoes and clothing, and nothing says classic like those three stripes.
Gap, and its family of brands including Old Navy and Banana Republic, are synonymous with American apparel retail. The namesake brand has always been at the center of comfort, value and style, but over time lost its way with consumers. However, over the past year and a half, the reinvigoration of the Gap family of brands has started to take shape under the direction of CEO Richard Dickson.
New designs, collaborations, splashy marketing campaigns and store layouts have taken shape across the portfolio. While we haven’t seen a lot of change in visitation to stores over the past year, trends are certainly moving in the right direction and outpacing many other brands in the apparel space. Gap has also reinserted itself into the fabric of American fashion this past year with designs for the Met Gala.
The benefit of Gap Inc.’s portfolio is that each brand has a distinct and unique audience of consumers that it draws from. This allows each brand to focus on meeting the needs of its visitors directly instead of trying to be all things for a broader group of consumers. Old Navy in particular has a strong opportunity with consumers as value continues to be a key motivator.
Gap has done all of the right things to not only catch up to consumers’ expectations but to rise beyond them. Even as legacy store-based retail brands have seen more disruption over the past few years, Gap is ready to step back into the spotlight.
The diversity of brands featured in this report highlight the variety of categories and strategic initiatives that can drive retail and dining success in 2025.
Sprouts’ focus on quality products and small-format stores, CAVA’s rise as a suburban dining powerhouse, and Nordstrom’s commitment to customer experience all highlight how understanding and responding to consumer needs can drive success. Brands like Ashley Furniture, Sam’s Club, H Mart, and Life Time have shown how offering a unique value proposition within a crowded segment, leveraging loyalty, and creating memorable experiences can fuel growth. And Raising Cane’s demonstrates the power of simplicity and operational efficiency in building momentum.
At the same time, niche players like Bluemercury are excelling by catering to specific audiences with authenticity and expertise. And while Starbucks, Adidas, and Gap Inc. face challenges, the three companies’ brand equity and revitalization efforts suggest potential for a significant comeback.
