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How did Walmart, Target, and wholesale clubs perform in 2024? What do early 2025 foot traffic trends tell us about superstores’ growth potential in the coming year? And what do visitation patterns at Target and Walmart reveal about the role each chain plays in the wider retail landscape? We dove into the data to find out.
Wholesale clubs outperformed more traditional superstores in 2024, as Costco, BJ’s, and Sam’s Club saw 4.8% to 7.2% YoY increases in visits while Target and Walmart’s traffic remained relatively flat. And though wholesale clubs continued outperforming Target and Walmart in the new year as well, the two superstore leaders did see clear visit increases of 3.6% and 3.0%, respectively, in January 2025 – a promising sign for the retail giants’ growth in the year ahead.
Target and Walmart both operate national chains of one-stop shops that carry a variety of consumables and non-consumables, including groceries, apparel, toys, and electronics. But diving into the demographics of the two brand’s captured market reveals that each chain serves a slightly different audience.
Target tends to attract visitors from areas with higher HHI and larger households: The company’s captured market includes a larger share of both households with children and non-family (e.g. roommates) households than Walmart’s, perhaps due to Target’s relative appeal to both suburban and strongly urbanized segments. Meanwhile, Walmart seems to attract more repeat monthly visitors (who visit the chain at least twice a month), perhaps thanks to the chain’s extensive grocery offerings and to its popularity among rural and semirural segments who may not have a variety of retail options to frequent.
The two chains’ visitor base also exhibit differences in in-store behavior. Walmart visitors do seem to linger a little longer in store, with 20.7% of the chain’s visits lasting longer than 45 minutes compared to Target’s 17.1% – maybe thanks to the mission-driven shopping behavior of some of its rural and semirural customer base. But despite the longer visits, Walmart still receives a larger share of weekday visits than Target – perhaps thanks to its larger share of single shoppers with fewer weekday commitments.
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How did home improvement leaders The Home Depot and Lowe’s perform in 2024? And what lies ahead for the chains in 2025? We dove into the data to find out.
A challenging retail environment continued weighing on the home improvement space in 2024 as high prices and tighter consumer budgets led many consumers to push off discretionary renovations and remodels. As a result, visits to The Home Depot and Lowe’s remained below 2023 levels throughout 2024. Still, the visit gaps were relatively minor – The Home Depot received 1.6% to 3.5% fewer quarterly visits and Lowe’s saw a 2.2% to 4.7% visit gap relative to 2023 – a testament to the enduring strength of these home improvement giants.
Diving deeper into the daily visits data also reveals that, despite the challenges, the two retailers succeeded in driving significant visit boosts through promotions and holiday sales: Mother’s Day, Black Friday, and the Saturday of Memorial Day were the top three visited days for The Home Depot and Lowe’s in 2024. Lowe’s received its highest daily traffic boost on Mother’s Day – likely thanks to its free plant giveaway – while The Home Depot saw its largest visit surge over the traditionally busy Black Friday. Finally, Memorial Day sales drove the third largest visit peak for both chains.
The boost in consumer traffic during special events underscores the potential of seasonal promotions to drive engagement and foot traffic – even in times of wider retail headwinds and economic uncertainty.
Both The Home Depot and Lowe’s received fewer visitors in 2024 compared to 2023, but a closer look reveals that the YoY dips in repeat visitors (who visited at least twice a month) were larger than the declines in casual (once a month) shoppers. For example, in December 2024, the number of casual visitors to The Home Depot dipped 3.0% YoY while the number of repeat monthly visitors declined by 4.0% compared to 2023. YoY visitor trends to Lowe’s generally followed a similar trend.
This trend suggests that, with home sales at their lowest levels since 1995 and many consumers looking to avoid non-essential expenditures, demand for large-scale renovations may be slowing. As a result, contractors and homeowners undertaking major remodeling projects are likely visiting these stores less frequently.
But while these trends may be hampering home improvement visits in the short term, the current downturn could also be setting the stage for a future recovery – as a stabilizing economy could unleash significant pent-up demand.
Visits to the country’s two largest home improvement retailers, while not yet returned to their pandemic-era highs, are beginning to stabilize. Will 2025 see a return to normal for the chains?
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With consumer interest in wellness showing no sign of slowing down, we dove into fitness foot traffic data to see how the segment performed in 2024 and understand what the new year holds for the category.
The fitness category has yet to hit its peak. Following consistent year-over-year (YoY) growth in monthly visits throughout 2024, traffic to the category rose again in January 2025 with visits 2.3% higher than in January 2024 – a strong start for what is likely to be another standout year in the fitness space.
And while some may consider New Year’s resolutions to be an outdated, unhelpful institution, the data indicates that January still drives a significant fitness spike as Americans across the country commit to their wellness goals at the start of the year.
Fitness visits in January 2025 were 21.2% higher than in December 2024 – only a slightly lower spike than the month-over-month (MoM) January 2024 jump of 23.4% – indicating that New Year’s resolutions are still quite popular in 2025. At the same time, the slightly lower MoM growth in January may also reflect the relatively stable visitation trends throughout 2024 – a shift from the traditional patterns of fitness chains losing about 30% of their members each year.
Diving into individual fitness chains reveals that the category’s ongoing success is driving visit growth across the fitness segment – including at budget gyms such as Planet Fitness and Crunch Fitness, mid-range chains such as LA Fitness, and premium brands such as Life Time. And critically, both overall visitors and visit frequency were consistently elevated in H2 2024 and going into 2025, indicating that not only are more people going to the gym – they’re also generally going more frequently. It seems, then, that the wellness trend of the past few years is still gaining momentum.
While the increased interest in wellness seems to have brought a boost in industry-wide fitness visits, analyzing visit frequency by brand and quarter does reveal some differences – and some similarities – across different brand tiers.
All four brands analyzed – Planet Fitness, Crunch Fitness, LA Fitness, and Life Time – received the largest share of repeat visitors (at least twice a month) in Q1 2024, as New Year’s resolutions drove a boost in gym-going frequency. The share of repeat visitors then consistently fell throughout the year, and the chains (with the exception of Life Time) received the lowest share of repeat visits in Q4 as vacations and holidays likely interfered with people’s exercise schedule.
One might expect high value low price (HVLP) gyms to attract lower-usage members – since the modest fee may mean that members are not compelled to get the most bang for their buck – but looking at the data reveals that visit frequency did not necessarily correlate with membership pricing. While Planet Fitness and Crunch Fitness are both HVLP chains, their visit frequency patterns differed significantly: Planet Fitness seemed to attract a relatively high share of lower-usage members, while Crunch Fitness’ visit frequency exceeded that of higher-priced LA Fitness and was in fact was closer to that of premium chain Life Time.
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Bloomin’ Brands, the parent company of Outback Steakhouse, Carrabba’s Italian Grill, Bonefish Grill, and Fleming’s Prime Steakhouse, faced a year of mixed results in 2024 amid continued challenges in the dining sector.
We analyzed the company’s overall performance, along with its individual brands, to see what the visit data reveals about the past year.
The past year was a challenging one for many restaurant chains, and Bloomin’ Brands was not immune. Overall visits to the restaurant group declined by 2.9% YoY, with quarterly visits in 2024 falling between 1.9% and 4.0% compared to 2023.
Still, Bloomin’ appears to be working on a pivot – and visits per location metrics suggest that this is working. The company closed dozens of stores throughout 2024, a rightsizing strategy aimed at focusing on high-performing locations. As a result, visits per location tracked more closely with 2023 levels, with visits per location for 2024 as a whole up by 0.1% compared to 2023.
Diving into individual brands reveals that most of Bloomin’s chains displayed minimal visit gaps. In particular, Fleming’s Prime Steakhouse finished the year strong with a 0.8% YoY increase in Q4 2024 visits – in keeping with the general outperformance of fine dining concepts, especially around the holidays.
Still, one brand, Bonefish Grill, lagged behind the others. The company intends to simplify the menu and enhance the core brand experience, which may help bring visits back to Bonefish in 2025.
While most Bloomin’ Brands chains experienced visit declines in 2024, visits per location tracked closely with 2023 levels, reflecting the impact of the company’s strategic closures.
Outback Steakhouse, Carrabba’s Italian Grill, and Fleming’s Prime Steakhouse all saw YoY increases in visits per location for three out of four quarters in 2024. Fleming’s in particular ended the year strong with a 3.3% visit per location increase in Q4 2024 – suggesting that Bloomin’ might do well by focusing on its more upscale offerings.
And Bonefish Grill saw smaller YoY visit gaps in average visits per location compared to its overall visit metric – a sign that rightsizing may have helped offset some of the broader traffic challenges.
Despite facing a challenging year, the stability in the average visits per location across Bloomin’ Brands serves as a reminder that there are plenty of ways for restaurants to pivot and succeed.
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CAVA and sweetgreen have been rapidly expanding, cementing their place in the fast-casual dining landscape. We dive into the data to take a closer look at CAVA and sweetgreen’s foot traffic performance and uncover the seasonal visitation patterns driving appetite for these fast-growing chains in 2025.
CAVA and sweetgreen are still firmly in expansion mode, with new store openings fueling their foot traffic growth. Last quarter, CAVA reported a 21.4% year-over-year (YoY) increase in total restaurants and currently boasts nearly 380 locations. And in the past year, sweetgreen has opened dozens of new venues, growing the chain’s footprint to over 900 locations.
Through H2 2024 and the start of 2025, CAVA and sweetgreen experienced consistent YoY visit growth – outperforming the fast-casual restaurant category every month. CAVA’s significantly larger visit growth (26.9% compared to sweetgreen’s 9.9% YoY in Q4 2024) was likely due to the proportional impact of new restaurant openings on CAVA’s smaller real estate footprint.
As CAVA and sweetgreen continue to expand, 2025 is likely to be another year of sustained growth for both restaurants.
Analyzing seasonal visit trends can reveal some of the factors driving sweetgreen and CAVA’s success.
Fast-casual restaurants generally receive more of their visits during lunch than during dinner. And CAVA and sweetgreen received an even larger share of lunchtime (12 PM to 3 PM) visits than the fast-casual average – indicating that these restaurants’ lunchtime popularity is likely a major growth driver.
CAVA also received the highest dinner (between 6 PM and 9 PM) visit share. This indicates that despite CAVA’s fast-casual designation, consumers seem to treat it more like a full-service restaurant, with patrons visiting the chain to eat a proper meal and not just to grab a convenient bite between errands. And the company’s recently launched loyalty program may well bring even more lunch and dinner visits to the chain in 2025.
Meanwhile, sweetgreen’s dinner visit share remained at or below the fast-casual average throughout the year. But evening traffic to the salad chain did increase during the warmer months – hitting a high of 27.4% between July and October – perhaps due to consumers remaining out and about later when there were more daylight hours. Consumers generally spend significantly more on dinner out than on lunch, so sweetgreen may want to fuel its warm-weather dinner boost by offering specials or promotions to attract even more evening patrons to its locations during Q2 and Q3. Sweetgreen may also choose to incorporate time-dependent ordering incentives into its new loyalty program to encourage more evening visits throughout the year.
Further analysis of visitor behavior reveals that CAVA and sweetgreen drive a significant share of weekend visits. And while sweetgreen’s dinner boost tends to occur in Q2 and Q3, both sweetgreen and CAVA’s weekend visit share increases in Q1 and Q4.
At least some of the elevated weekend visits in Q4 2024 may have been due to the many consumers that were on vacation – eating fewer mid-week meals out of the house – or grabbing a bite while doing their holiday shopping on Saturday and Sunday. Still, elevated weekend traffic in Q1 indicates that the chains have the potential to drive significant traffic during other cold-weather months on days when consumers have more time for recreation.
CAVA’s continued investment in inviting dining rooms – part of the chain’s “Project Soul” campaign – may attract unhurried diners looking to experience a cozy ambiance, while sweetgreen’s early-stage rollout of the robotic “Infinite Kitchen” may actually elevate the indoor dining experience to one that is fun and weekend-worthy.
As sweetgreen and CAVA pursue various strategies in their next phase of growth, an understanding of consumer behavior can help the chains maximize the potential of their robust visitor bases and enhance operational efficiency.
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The Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index: The office building index analyzes foot traffic data from some 1,000 office buildings across the country. It only includes commercial office buildings, and commercial office buildings with retail offerings on the first floor (like an office building that might include a national coffee chain on the ground floor). It does NOT include mixed-use buildings that are both residential and commercial.
Several factors seem to have converged in January 2025 to temporarily hamper the return to office (RTO) recovery. First, last month brought a polar vortex to much of the United States, compelling Americans to stay indoors and avoid unnecessary trips outside – including to the office. January 1st also fell on a Wednesday this year, and many people likely took advantage of the calendar luck to extend their vacation through the weekend – leading to fewer January office visits compared to years when New Year’s Day falls earlier in the week.
As a result, the January 2025 bump appeared relatively muted: Visits in January 2025 were only 17.7% higher than in December 2024, compared to a 31.3% month-over-month increase from December 2023 to January 2024. And visits were 40.2% lower than they were in pre-pandemic January 2019 – a slightly worse showing than the 39.2% pre-pandemic visit gap of December 2024.
The meteorological and calendar challenges seem to have impacted office visits on a metro area as well, with few cities analyzed making significant RTO strides in January 2025. The sole exception was New York, where January 2025 visits were only 19.0% lower than they were in January 2019 – a slightly smaller visit gap than the previous month.
Diving into the year-over-year data shows the impact of the polar vortex more clearly. Many of the cities where residents are used to and equipped for the colder weather – Chicago, Boston, and New York – seemed to have experienced a relatively minimal impact from the arctic blast. The one exception was Denver, which was exceptionally frigid – with subzero temperatures – so that even those used to cold may have opted to work from home.
But in metro areas where weather tends to be relatively warm – including Atlanta, Houston, Washington, D.C., and Dallas – the impact of the polar vortex was visibly stronger. In these cities, the YoY visit gap ranged from 7.5% (Atlanta) to 12.0% (Dallas) – as employees without proper winter jackets or snow tires likely chose to stay cozy and avoid the chill.
January 2025’s RTO stats may not have been particularly impressive, but the relatively weak office data is likely more a reflection of last month’s unique challenges rather than a slowdown in RTO momentum. With the weather now back to normal and no mid-week holidays in the near future, the coming months will be critical in evaluating if the RTO is in fact slowing down or whether January just marked a temporary setback within a still unfolding story.
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Many retail and dining chains performed well in 2024 despite the ongoing economic uncertainty. But with the consumer headwinds continuing into 2025, which brands can continue pulling ahead of the pack?
This report highlights 10 brands (in no particular order) that exhibit significant potential to grow in 2025 – as well as three chains that have faced some challenges in 2024 but appear poised to make a comeback in the year ahead. Which chains made the cut? Dive into the report to find out.
Through 2024, visits to Sprouts Farmers Market locations increased an average of 7.2% year-over-year (YoY) each month, outpacing the wider grocery segment standard by an average of six percentage points. And not only were visits up – monthly visits per location also grew YoY.
The promising coupling of overall and visits per location growth seems driven by the brands’ powerful understanding of who they are and what they bring to the market. The focus on high quality, fresh products is resonating, and the utilization of small- format locations is empowering the chain to bring locations to the doorstep of their ideal audiences.
This combination of forces positions the brand to better identify and reach key markets efficiently, offering an ideal path to continued growth. The result is a recipe for ongoing grocery success.
CAVA has emerged as a standout success story in the restaurant industry over the past several years. Traditionally, Mediterranean concepts have not commanded the same level of demand as burger, sandwich, Mexican, or Asian fast-casual concepts, which is why the category lacked a true national player until CAVA's rise. However, evolving consumer tastes have created a fertile landscape for Mediterranean cuisine to thrive, driven by factors such as social media influence, expanded food options via third-party delivery, growing demand for healthier choices, the rise of food-focused television programming, and the globalization of restaurant concepts .
CAVA’s success can be attributed to several key factors. Roughly 80% of CAVA locations were in suburban areas before the pandemic, aligning well with consumer migration and work-from-home trends. Additionally, CAVA was an early adopter of digital drive-thru lanes, similar to Chipotle’s "Chipotlanes," and began developing these store formats well before the pandemic. The brand has also utilized innovative tools like motion sensors in its restaurants to optimize throughput and staffing during peak lunchtime hours, enabling it to refine restaurant design and equipment placement as it expanded. CAVA’s higher employee retention rates have also contributed to its ability to maintain speed-of-service levels above category averages.
These strengths allowed CAVA to successfully enter new markets like Chicago in 2024. While many emerging brands have struggled to gain traction in new areas, CAVA’s visit-per-location metrics in recently entered markets have matched its national averages, positioning the brand for continued growth in 2025.
Ashley’s recent strategy shift to differentiate itself through experiential events, such as live music, workshops, and giveaways, is a compelling approach in the challenging consumer discretionary category. Post-pandemic, commercial property owners have successfully used community events to boost visit frequency, dwell time, and trade area size for mall properties. It’s no surprise that retailers like Ashley are adopting similar strategies to engage customers and enhance their in-store experience.
The decision to incorporate live events into its marketing strategy reflects the growing demand for experiential and immersive retail experiences. While home furnishings saw a surge in demand during the pandemic, the category has struggled over the past two years, underperforming other discretionary retail sectors compared to pre-pandemic levels. Recognizing this challenge, Ashley’s rebrand focuses on creating interactive and memorable experiences that allow customers to engage directly with its products and explore various design possibilities. In turn, this has helped to drive visits from trade areas with younger consumers with lower household incomes.
Ashley has leaned into collaborations with interior designers and industry experts to offer informative sessions and workshops during these events. These initiatives not only attract traffic but also provide valuable insights into customers’ preferences, which can be used to refine product offerings, enhance customer service, and shape future marketing efforts. This approach is particularly relevant as millennials and Gen Z drive new household formation. While still early, Ashley’s pivot to live events is showing promising results in attracting visits and increasing customer engagement.
Department stores have had many challenges in navigating changing consumer behavior and finding their place in an evolving retail landscape. Nordstrom, an example of department store success in 2024, has been able to maintain a strong brand relationship with its shoppers and regain its footing with its store fleet. While the chain has certainly benefited from catering to a more affluent, and less price sensitive, consumer base, it still shines in fostering a shopping experience that stands out.
Value might be a driver of retail visitation across the industry, but for Nordstrom, service and experience is paramount. The retailer has downplayed promotional activity in favor of driving loyalty among key visitors. Nordstrom also has captured higher shares of high-value, younger consumer segments, which defies commonly held thoughts about department stores. The chain was a top visited chain during Black Friday in 2024, showcasing that it’s top of mind for shoppers for both gift giving and self-gifting.
What’s next? Nordstrom announced at the end of December that it plans to go private with the help of Mexican retail chain Liverpool. We expect to see even more innovation in store experience, assortments and services with this newfound flexibility and investment. And, we cannot forget about Nordstrom Rack, which allows the retailer to still engage price-conscious shoppers of all income levels, which is certainly still a bright spot as we head into 2025.
Visits are up, and the audience visiting Sam’s Club locations seems to be getting younger which – when taken together – tells us a few critical things. First, Sam’s Club has parlayed its pandemic resurgence into something longer term, leveraging the value and experience it provides to create loyal customers. Second, the power of its offering is attracting a newer audience that had previously been less apt to take advantage of the unique Sam’s Club benefits.
The result is a retailer that is proving particularly adept at understanding the value of a visit. The membership club model incentives loyalty which means that once a visitor takes the plunge, the likelihood of more visits is heightened significantly. And the orientation to value, a longer visit duration, and a wide array of items on sale leads to a larger than normal basket size.
In a retail segment where the value of loyalty and owning ‘share of shopping list’ is at a premium, Sam’s Club is positioned for the type of success that builds a foundation for strength for years to come.
Raising Cane’s exemplifies the power of focus by excelling at a simple menu done exceptionally well. Over the past several years, the chain has been one of the fastest-growing in the QSR segment, driven by a streamlined menu that enhances speed and efficiency, innovative marketing campaigns, and strategic site selection in both new and existing markets. Notably, Raising Cane’s ranked among the top QSR chains for visit-per-location growth last year. Unlike many competitors that leaned on deep discounts or nostalgic product launches to boost traffic in 2024, Raising Cane’s relied on operational excellence to build brand awareness and drive visits. This approach has translated into some of the highest average unit sales in the segment, with restaurants averaging around $6 million in sales last year.
Raising Cane’s operational efficiency has also been a key driver of its rapid expansion, growing from 460 locations at the end of 2019 to more than 830 heading into 2025. This includes over 100 new store openings in 2024 alone, placing it among the top QSR chains for year-over-year visit growth. The chain’s ability to maintain exceptional performance while scaling rapidly highlights its strong foundation and operational strategy.
While Life Time has fitness at its core, it has also expanded to become a lifestyle. Healthy living is its mantra and this extends to both the gym aspect, but also the social health of its members with offerings like yoga, childcare, personalized fitness programs, coworking, and even an option for luxury living just steps away.
With all these choices, it’s no wonder that its members are more loyal than others in its peer group.
To the delight of book lovers everywhere, Barnes & Noble is back in force. With a presence in every single state and approximately 600 stores, location options are growing to browse bestsellers, chat with in-store bibliophiles, or grab a latte. Stores are feeling cozier and more local, with handwritten recommendations across the store. The chain’s extensive selection of gifts and toys mean that one can stop in for more than just books. The membership program is also relaunching, rewarding members for their purchases. Even though some locations have downsized, efficiency is up with average visits per square foot increasing over the last 3 years. Customers are also lingering, with nearly 3 in 10 visitors staying 45 minutes or longer.
With options for a “third place” that’s not home or work dwindling, Barnes & Noble is poised to fill that hole.
From its origins as a corner grocery store in Queens, NY 42 years ago, H Mart now boasts over 80 stores throughout the US. Shoppers are enticed by the aroma of hot roasted sweet potatoes wafting through the store, the opportunities to try new brands like Little Jasmine fruit teas, and the array of prepared foods such as gimbap and japchae. In addition to traditional Korean, Chinese, and Japanese groceries, H Mart’s assortment has expanded to staple items and American brands as well like Chobani yogurt or Doritos.
As the Hallyu wave sweeps across the nation and K-pop stars like Rose top the charts for the eight straight week with the catchy “APT”, so too is the appetite for Asian food. At the second-most visited H Mart in the nation in Carrollton, TX, the ethnic makeup of customers is 39% White, 14% Black, 23% Hispanic or Latino, and 20% Asian – reflecting the truly universal appeal of this supermarket chain.
Beauty retail had a transformative 2024, with a general cooling off in demand for the category. Competition between chains has increased and delivering quality products, expertise and services is critical to maintain visits. Against this backdrop, Bluemercury stands out as a shining star in parent company Macy’s portfolio of brands, with the brand well positioned to take on this next chapter of beauty retail.
Bluemercury’s success lies in its ability to be a retailer, an expert, and a spa service provider to its consumers. Placer data has shown that beauty chains with a service and retail component tend to attract more visitors than those who just specialize in retail offerings, and Bluemercury is no exception. The chain also focuses solely on the prestige market within the beauty industry and caters to higher income households compared to the broader beauty category; both of those factors have contributed to more elastic demand than with other retailers.
Bluemercury’s bet on product expertise and knowledge combined with a smaller format store help to foster a strong connection between the beauty retailer and its consumers. The brand overindexes with visitors “seeking youthful appearance” and has cemented itself as a destination for niche and emerging beauty brands. As the larger Macy’s brand grapples with its transformation, Bluemercury’s relevance and deep connection to its consumer base can serve as an inspiration, especially as the beauty industry faces mounting uncertainty.
Competitors like Dutch Bros and 7Brew are on the rise, critical office visitation patterns remain far behind pre-pandemic levels, and the chain did not end the year in the most amazing way in terms of visit performance. But there is still so much to love about Starbucks – and the addition of new CEO Brian Niccol positions the coffee giant to rebound powerfully.
The focused attention on leaning into its legendary ‘third place’ concept is in excellent alignment with the shift to the suburbs and hybrid work and with audiences that continue to show they value experience over convenience. But the convenience-oriented customer will likely also benefit from the brand’s recent initiatives, including pushes to improve staffing, mobile ordering alignment and menu simplification. In addition, the brand is still the gold standard when it comes to owning the calendar, as seen with their annual visit surges for the release of the Pumpkin Spice Latte or Red Cup Day and their ability to capitalize on wider retail holidays like Black Friday and Super Saturday.
The combination of the tremendous reach, brand equity, remaining opportunities in growing markets and the combined ability to address both convenience and experience oriented customers speaks to a unique capacity to regain lost ground and drive a significant resurgence against the expectations of many.
Retail has had its challenges this year, with many consumers opting for off-price to snag deals – but the strength of the Adidas brand should not be underestimated. Gazelles and Sambas are still highly coveted, and a partnership with Messi x Bad Bunny racked up over a million likes. Consumers are favoring classic silhouettes across both shoes and clothing, and nothing says classic like those three stripes.
Gap, and its family of brands including Old Navy and Banana Republic, are synonymous with American apparel retail. The namesake brand has always been at the center of comfort, value and style, but over time lost its way with consumers. However, over the past year and a half, the reinvigoration of the Gap family of brands has started to take shape under the direction of CEO Richard Dickson.
New designs, collaborations, splashy marketing campaigns and store layouts have taken shape across the portfolio. While we haven’t seen a lot of change in visitation to stores over the past year, trends are certainly moving in the right direction and outpacing many other brands in the apparel space. Gap has also reinserted itself into the fabric of American fashion this past year with designs for the Met Gala.
The benefit of Gap Inc.’s portfolio is that each brand has a distinct and unique audience of consumers that it draws from. This allows each brand to focus on meeting the needs of its visitors directly instead of trying to be all things for a broader group of consumers. Old Navy in particular has a strong opportunity with consumers as value continues to be a key motivator.
Gap has done all of the right things to not only catch up to consumers’ expectations but to rise beyond them. Even as legacy store-based retail brands have seen more disruption over the past few years, Gap is ready to step back into the spotlight.
The diversity of brands featured in this report highlight the variety of categories and strategic initiatives that can drive retail and dining success in 2025.
Sprouts’ focus on quality products and small-format stores, CAVA’s rise as a suburban dining powerhouse, and Nordstrom’s commitment to customer experience all highlight how understanding and responding to consumer needs can drive success. Brands like Ashley Furniture, Sam’s Club, H Mart, and Life Time have shown how offering a unique value proposition within a crowded segment, leveraging loyalty, and creating memorable experiences can fuel growth. And Raising Cane’s demonstrates the power of simplicity and operational efficiency in building momentum.
At the same time, niche players like Bluemercury are excelling by catering to specific audiences with authenticity and expertise. And while Starbucks, Adidas, and Gap Inc. face challenges, the three companies’ brand equity and revitalization efforts suggest potential for a significant comeback.
The holiday shopping season traditionally stretches from Black Friday to New Years Eve: Shoppers looking to snag deals, purchase gifts, or enhance their celebrations drive visit spikes at retailers across the country. And although many consumers expressed concern over high prices impacting their holiday budget, spending in 2024 actually increased compared to 2023, with brick-and-mortar stores playing a key role in last year’s holiday season.
So where were the largest holiday spikes? How did last year’s calendar configuration impact retail traffic? Which segment came out ahead – and how did dining fit into the mix? Most importantly – what can we learn from the 2024 holiday season to prepare for 2025?
The holiday shopping season is the busiest time of the year for many retail categories. Between Black Friday and December 31st 2024, daily visits to brick-and-mortar stores increased 12.7%, on average, compared to the rest of the year.
Department stores led the pack, with visits to the segment 102.1% higher than the pre-holiday season average – likely aided by strong Black Friday performances. Other favorite gifting categories, including beauty & self care (72.7%), hobbies, gifts & crafts (60.9%), recreational & sporting goods (55.5%), clothing (41.8%), and electronics stores (32.7%) also received significant traffic boosts. Shopping centers benefited as well with a 24.8% increase in daily visits over the holiday season. Retailers in these segments can capitalize on their holiday popularity and stand out amidst the crowd by promoting their brand early and ensuring their staffing and inventory can accommodate the season’s traffic increases.
The holidays are also a time for entertainment – and purchasing gifts for hosts – which likely helped drive the 48.4% and 41.7% traffic increases at liquor stores and at furniture & home furnishings retailers, respectively. Superstores and discount & dollar stores – with their selection of affordable giftable products and entertainment essentials – also saw holiday-driven visit bumps of 21.2% and 20.2%, respectively. Retailers may choose to highlight seasonal items and hosting-friendly products to increase these traffic bumps in 2025.
Pet stores & services received a smaller (10.0%) bump than the wider retail average – indicating that, although some shoppers buy gifts for their fur babies, pets may not be at the top of most Americans’ gift lists. And visits to the home improvement segment were essentially on par with the pre-holiday period – indicating that the holidays are not the time for extensive home renovation projects. But home improvement chains looking to get in on the holiday action might consider promoting decorations and smaller giftable items in December.
And despite the grocery frenzy of Turkey Wednesday and Christmas Eve Eve, the Grocery segment received a relatively minor holiday boost of 5.0% – perhaps due to holiday travelers skipping their weekly grocery haul. Grocers who lean into prepared foods or pre-packaged meal kits might get an additional bump.
Although the holidays drive retail visit surges across the country, some regions see a bigger traffic bump than others.
In December 2024, almost all 50 states (with the exception of Wyoming ) received a holiday-driven retail traffic boost ranging from a 3.3% (Montana) to a 16.8% (New Hampshire). On a regional basis, the South received the largest increase: The West South Central, East South Central, and South Atlantic divisions received a collective 12.2% increase in daily visits between Black Friday and New Years Eve compared to the pre-Black Friday daily average. (Washington, D.C. saw a slight visit decline of 0.4%, likely due to the many residents leaving the capital for the holiday break.) Retailers in this region may choose to increase staffing and inventory ahead of the 2025 holiday season to handle the increased demand.
Meanwhile, the Midwest region had the smallest holiday-driven traffic spike (9.2%) – despite starting the season ahead of the pack, with the highest Black Friday weekend visit boost. This suggests that Midwestern retailers may have more success with early promotions than with last-minute discounts.
While the holiday season drove an overall retail visit boost nationwide, diving deeper into the data reveals that different retail segments peak at different points of the holiday season.
Most categories – especially the ones that tend to offer steep post-Thanksgiving discounts, such as recreational & sporting goods, department stores, electronics stores, and beauty retailers – received the biggest visit spikes on Black Friday. Retailers in these categories may benefit from promotional campaigns ahead of Thanksgiving to cater to early shoppers and maximize their performance on their busiest day.
Other segments that carry more affordable gifts, stocking stuffers, and food items gained momentum as Christmas approached – with superstores visits spiking on December 23rd and discount & dollar stores peaking on December 24th. These retailers may get even larger end-of-year visit bumps by offering discounts and bundles to last-minute shoppers.
The grocery segment received its largest boost ahead of Thanksgiving, with visits also surging on the days before Christmas as home cooks picked up supplies for the holiday dinner. Grocers who can save their shoppers time during this busy period by offering curbside pickup, pre-prepped ingredients or meal kits, and other conveniences may see particularly strong performances in 2025.
Calendar shifts also play an important role in shaping holiday shopping patterns. Last year, Super Saturday and “Christmas Eve Eve” – each a significant milestone in its own right – coincided on December 23rd, 2023 to create a supercharged shopping event that generated massive visit spikes at retailers across categories.
But in 2024, when the milestones occurred separately, important differences emerged between retailers. Gift-shopping destinations like Macy’s, Nordstrom, and Best Buy saw bigger visit spikes on Super Saturday, while retailers like Target, Walmart, and Costco – carrying both gifts and food items – saw visits surge higher on December 23rd. Dollar Tree, a prime destination for affordable stocking stuffers, also experienced a more pronounced visit spike on Super Saturday.
Predictably, this year’s pre-Christmas milestones generally drove smaller individual visit spikes, as shoppers spread their errands across a longer period. But the stand-alone Super Saturday on December 21st 2024 also allowed consumers to prioritize gift-shopping on Saturday and shop for groceries and last minute stocking stuffers on December 23rd – benefiting certain retailers.
Nordstrom, for instance, saw visits soar to 215.9% above the chain’s 2024 daily average on December 21, 2024 – surpassing the 196.2% increase recorded on December 23, 2023. Macy’s also experienced a slightly higher Super Saturday visit boost this year. Next year, retailers can expect another spread-out pre-Christmas shopping period, with Super Saturday falling on December 20th, 2025 – five days before the holiday. Gift-focused retailers can leverage this timing by ramping up promotions in the run-up to Super Saturday – or by enhancing offerings on December 23rd to capture more late-season shoppers.
Big box retailers like Target, Walmart, and Costco, conversely, can double down on December 23rd or amplify earlier deals to capture a larger share of Super Saturday traffic. And retailers across categories can benefit from the more extended last-minute shopping period by implementing multi-day sales and promotions that encourage repeat visits and drive traffic throughout the week.
Turkey Wednesday – the day before Thanksgiving – is traditionally the grocery sector’s time to shine. And this year didn’t disappoint: On November 27th, 2024, visits to traditional grocery mainstays like Kroger, Safeway, and H-E-B shot up by a remarkable 66.9% to 79.2% compared to the 2024 daily average. And on December 23rd, foot traffic to the chains rose once again, though somewhat more moderately, as shoppers geared up for Christmas celebrations.
But the holiday season stock-up, it turns out, is about more than just food. Whether to help smooth out the rough edges of family interactions or to take celebrations to the next level, consumers also make pre-holiday runs to liquor stores. On Turkey Wednesday, leading spirit purveyors outperformed traditional grocery stores with epic 140.1% to 236.5% visit spikes. And the day before Christmas Eve was an even bigger milestone for the segment, with foot traffic skyrocketing by a staggering 153.6% to 283.8% above daily averages.
Ethnic supermarkets – chains like El Super and Vallarta Supermarket – also thrived on these traditional pre-holiday grocery store milestones. But like liquor stores, they saw bigger visit spikes on December 23rd, as customers likely sought out ingredients for their festive holiday dinners.
Grocery stores seeking to maximize the power of these pre-holiday milestones in 2025 could enhance their liquor selections and launch targeted promotions in the lead-up to both Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Dining venues are also impacted by the rhythms of the holiday season – but each segment within the dining industry follows its own unique seasonal trajectory.
Visits to the fast-casual, coffee, and fine-dining segments increased the week before Thanksgiving, with fast-casual and coffee visits peaking on Wednesday and fine-dining peaking on Thanksgiving day. Both coffee and fine-dining chains also received a small traffic bump on Black Friday, with coffee traffic likely aided by consumers looking to refuel during their shopping.
But beginning in mid-December, the fine-dining category pulled ahead of the other dining segments, picking up steam as the month wore on before peaking on December 23rd and 24th. And while traffic predictably declined on Christmas Day, the drop was less pronounced than for the other analyzed segments. Fine dining then resumed its strong showing on December 26th, maintaining elevated visits through the following days, potentially reflecting its appeal as a festive holiday dining destination for families.
Coffee chains and fast-casual restaurants also enjoyed moderately elevated December traffic, with smaller visit spikes on December 23rd. Traffic to both segments then slowed during the holiday – though coffee chains continued to see higher-than-average foot traffic on Christmas Eve – before tapering off as the month drew to a close.
Looking ahead to 2025, each dining segment can take steps to maximize its holiday impact. Fine dining chains can attract more special-occasion celebrants with unique holiday-themed menu items – paired with targeted promotions that make its premium offerings more accessible to families. Meanwhile, fast-casual and coffee chains can capitalize on high-traffic days like December 23rd by catering to the needs of busy holiday shoppers – extending operating hours and offering streamlined ordering and pickup options.
The 2024 holiday season proved strong for most retail categories, with each retail category displaying a different holiday visit pattern. This year’s calendar layout also presented a unique advantage, with a longer stretch between Super Saturday and Christmas compared to last year.
By analyzing 2024 holiday regional visit trends, understanding the role that each year’s specific calendar configuration plays in shaping consumer behavior, and identifying the unique retail milestones for each chain and category, retail and dining stakeholders can refine their strategies and make the most of the 2025 holiday season.
