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As competition intensifies from drive-thru rivals and at-home coffee trends, Starbucks is doubling down on unique in-store experiences and AI-powered service improvements to reignite customer visit frequency.
But how likely are these moves to revitalize the company? We dove into the data to find out.
As the “Back to Starbucks” plan continues to take shape under CEO Brian Niccol, Starbucks finds itself banking on a familiar recipe for success: innovation. The company's recent announcement that it is testing a new protein-enhanced cold foam is a key example of its strategy to re-engage customers. The coffee chain also hopes to boost efficiency and free up employees to engage more with customers through its new “Green Apron” service model.
These moves suggest that Starbucks is focused on driving more consistent and loyal visits through thoughtful menu additions and the restoration of its “coffeehouse feel” rather than relying on temporary discounts – which often provide only a short-term lift without fostering lasting repeat business.
This strategic pivot is crucial as the company works to revitalize its brand. And while Starbucks' plans to return to its "coffeehouse roots" will take time to fully implement, it is building from a position of underlying strength. Data shows that the total number of unique customers visiting Starbucks has remained remarkably consistent over the past several years.
However, the core challenge lies in the fact that individual visit frequency has stagnated, meaning those loyal customers are simply coming back less often, turning instead to competitors or at-home coffee. This presents a clear opportunity: If Starbucks can give its large, established customer base new reasons to visit, it can unlock significant growth. And the narrowing of the company’s visit gap in 2025 so far – with both January and April seeing positive year-over-year visit growth – further underscores the company’s underlying strength.
The urgency for Starbucks’ turnaround is amplified by competition from all sides. The market has seen a surge in new, efficient drive-thru coffee concepts like Dutch Bros, 7 Brew, PJ’s Coffee and others that cater to consumers seeking speed and convenience. Simultaneously, Starbucks faces continued pressure from the at-home coffee trend, with many consumers opting to get their caffeine fix from grocery store purchases. By focusing on unique, in-store-only innovations like protein-boosted beverages, Starbucks aims to give customers an experience they can't replicate at home or get from a faster rival, providing a compelling reason to make that return visit.
For more data-driven dining insights visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Darden recently announced that it was considering ceasing operations for one of its chains, Bahama Breeze, following the closure of 15 of its 43 locations in May 2025.
Visit data for the brand highlights the struggles the Caribbean-inspired chain has faced in recent years. Year-over-year (YoY) visits were down in every year analyzed, and monthly visits declined in all but three of the past 12 months. The chain appeared particularly hard-hit starting in 2025, which may have been a consideration in Darden's decision to shutter Bahama Breeze locations.
Whether Darden plans to keep the remaining 28 Bahama Breeze restaurants operational or opt for a full sale remains to be seen, but the recent foot traffic challenges facing the brand position it for a strategic pivot – or more drastic measures.
As the U.S. economy moves to the midpoint of 2025, a divergent macro picture is starting to take hold. While consumers are showing renewed confidence and returning to stores (or at the very least, responding to heightened promotional activity across many retail categories), the industrial backbone of the economy – manufacturing and shipping – is tapping the brakes. This split narrative suggests that while immediate consumer sentiment has improved as tariff-related news has taken a backseat, industrial signals may be painting a more cautious picture.
The retail sector has seen a welcome rebound in May and June, following a sluggish start to the year when macroeconomic uncertainty and significant tariff-related news dampened spirits and hurt foot traffic in February and March. Year-over-year visitation data for the Placer 100 index – a composite of 100 of the largest retail and restaurant chains in the U.S. – indicates that shoppers have likely grown accustomed to the economic climate and are demonstrating more consistent and normal behaviors.
With the initial shock of potential price hikes having passed, consumers appear to be moving past the cautious approach that marked the first quarter, leading to stabilized and improving year-over-year visit trends across many retail categories.
Admittedly, there are multiple factors driving the recent increases in year-over-year retail traffic. Consumers remain squarely focused on value, which continues to drive outperformance for value grocers, warehouse clubs, and dollar stores (which also appear to be benefiting from less competition from Temu and Shein amid new regulatory restrictions). Off-price retailers continue to be one of the strongest performing categories year-to-date, capitalizing on increased inventory opportunities stemming from recent store closures and tariff-related supply chain disruptions, allowing them to fuel their "treasure hunt" model. Finally, traditional department stores have also contributed to the rebound through strong reception to events like Nordstrom’s Half-Yearly Sale and other promotional activity.
While retail visits have normalized in recent weeks, a different story is unfolding across U.S. factories and ports. Following a production surge in late March and April – when manufacturers ramped up activity to build inventory ahead of tariff deadlines – both manufacturing and port activity have seen a notable decline in May and into June.
Placer’s Industrial Manufacturing composite indicates that activity at manufacturing facilities – representing visits for both facility employees (estimated based on dwell time) and visitors, who often represent logistics partners – slowed in May and June.
Looking at manufacturing visit data by category, many U.S. factories took a breather in May, with our data showing a widespread slowdown in visits. The auto and auto parts industry has been hit particularly hard, feeling the direct impact of international tariffs. But this isn't just a car story – most other manufacturing sectors also pumped the brakes, signaling that many companies are cautiously getting ready for what could be an unpredictable second half of the year.
Slowing new orders and decreasing container volumes at major ports suggest that businesses, having already front-loaded their inventory, are now taking a more cautious look toward the second half of 2025. Many appear hesitant to over-commit amidst an unpredictable trade policy landscape.
Our visitation data for some of the busiest ports in the U.S. generally shows a strong correlation with the Bureau of Transportation's container import and export statistics. While our data indicated increased activity at several Eastern ports ahead of initial tariff implementation dates in early April, we have since observed visitation trends declining through much of April and May. The one notable exception is the Port of Houston – where gasoline imports are often received – which saw a spike in activity in May that has continued through June.
The two-track U.S. economy at the mid-point of 2025 highlights a clear divergence between consumer behavior and industrial strategy. While shoppers have returned to stores, driven by a hunt for value and successful promotions, the industrial sector is sending more cautious signals. The slowdown in activity at manufacturing facilities and ports suggests that businesses, having already front-loaded inventory ahead of tariffs, are now bracing for potential volatility. This sets up a classic economic tug-of-war for the second half of the year, leaving a critical question: Will resilient consumer spending eventually pull the industrial sector back into a growth cycle, or will the manufacturing slowdown ultimately impact supply chains, shelf availability, and the recent retail rebound?
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Grab-and-go dining is thriving. Recent data indicates that nearly three out of four restaurant orders are taken to go. This trend is a particularly beneficial one for the limited-service dining category, which encompasses quick-service, fast-casual, and coffee chains.
We took a look at the visit data for these three subcategories of the limited-service dining world to understand how consumer behavior varies by dining type.
In a period marked by economic concerns, diners seeking convenient and budget-friendly choices often turn to limited-service options. And in recent months, coffee emerged as the strongest segment within the limited-service category, followed by fast-casual restaurants. Visits to both segments were up every month except February, when YoY foot traffic dropped due to inclement weather and a leap year comparison. Meanwhile, QSR saw essentially flat YoY visitation trends since March 2025.
This visit performance highlights shifts in dining preferences across visitors to the three segments. Coffee’s status as an affordable indulgence may be one factor driving traffic to the category. And with consumers becoming more discerning about their disposable income, fast-casual restaurants appear to be benefiting from the quality and perceived value that many such chains offer.
Diving deeper into the data suggests that short visits (less than 10 minutes) drove much of the growth in the coffee and fast-casual segments during the first five months of 2025, with YoY trends for short visits consistently outperforming YoY trends for longer (10+ minutes) visits.
The overall coffee segment continues to impress with elevated visits, though a closer look reveals significant variances within the category.
Specifically, mid-sized and small coffee chains are thriving. These chains – including brands like Dutch Bros and Black Rock Coffee Bar experienced YoY visit growth of 7.3% and 7.1%, respectively, largely due to chain expansions. In contrast, large coffee chains – a sub-category that includes major players like Starbucks and Dunkin’ – saw visits dip by 4.5% YoY.
And small coffee chains were the only segment to experience a slight YoY uptick in average visits per location – indicating that even as the segment expanded its footprint, existing locations, on average, continued to see modest visit growth. This trend may be partially attributed to the relative affluence of these chains’ visitors, who tended to come from trade areas with more high-income consumers (>$100K) than those frequenting mid-sized and large coffee chains.
Within the fast-casual and quick-service dining segment, burger chains reign supreme, but they face a formidable new challenger. Big Chicken – fast-casual and quick-service dining chains that focus on chicken in all its forms – have been ascendant over the past few years. Between 2019 and 2025, these restaurants significantly expanded their relative visit share from 15.0% to 18.3% among a wide range of fast-casual and quick-service dining categories, including burgers, Mexican chains, sandwich chains, and pizza chains. Much of this growth came at the expense of burger chains, which, despite retaining their title as the category’s largest segment, saw their relative visit share decline from 62.3% in 2019 to 59.8% in 2025.
The limited service category, encompassing a huge range of dining options, continues to evolve and thrive, whether through the dominance of small coffee chains or chicken offerings.
What changes might the category undergo in the coming months and years?
Visit Placer.ai/anchor for the latest data-driven dining insights.
Shortly after Big Lots’ December 2024 decision to close all remaining stores, the company announced plans to transfer more than 200 locations to Variety Wholesalers – owner of discount banners such as Roses, Maxway, and Super Dollar. Beginning in April 2025, these Big Lot venues began to reopen, and by early June 2025, 219 stores had already resumed operations.
Big Lots’ relaunch is centered on offering shoppers deep discounts and a treasure hunting experience by sourcing closeout, overstock, and liquidation deals. The brand has also revised its product mix – leaning into apparel and electronics while reducing furniture and eliminating perishables. But how likely is this strategy to succeed, and what does it offer Variety Wholesalers?
We dove into the data to find out.
Between January and May 2025, leading discount and dollar chains experienced positive year-over-year (YoY) growth in both visits and average visits per location, reflecting ongoing consumer demand for value. But among these major players, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet stood out with a 14.4% YoY increase in visits and a 6.3% rise in average visits per location, even as the brand continued its store expansion. This trend underscores the strong interest in heavily discounted closeout deals, affirming Big Lots’ decision to reinvest in a liquidation-based model.
An analysis of Big Lots locations reopened by May 1st, 2025 reveals that customers interact with the stores like they do with other treasure-hunting venues. In May 2025, Big Lots saw more weekend and extended visits compared to the category average – mirroring the browsing-friendly vibe at Ollie’s or Five Below. By encouraging shoppers to explore, linger, and discover bargains, Big Lots is creating a retail destination likely to appeal to customers seeking both value and a bit of fun.
Variety Wholesalers hopes to leverage the Big Lots acquisition to reach higher-income bargain hunters. And data from reopened Big Lots stores shows they attract shoppers with more money to spend than Variety Wholesalers’ existing banners – though still less than the nationwide baseline, making them especially receptive to discount offerings. In May 2025, Big Lots’ captured market median HHI stood at $60.9K – close to Ollie’s $64.6K – further underscoring the potential success of a treasure-hunt strategy for Big Lots.
By returning to its deep discount roots, Big Lots appears poised to resonate with today’s value seeking customers. And with the discount segment continuing to grow, this renewed focus on bargains and treasure hunts may help the brand get back on its feet.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Retailers and brands have often turned to limited-edition roll outs, product drops, or collaborations to drive traffic – and hopefully incremental sales. But, do these efforts still resonate with shoppers? Are these programs still as meaningful to the retail industry as they once were?
We dove into the data to see how consumers responded to recent high-profile offerings launched this spring by Trader Joe’s and Target.
When thinking about viral product sensations in 2025, it’s hard not to include the mini tote bag from Trader Joe’s. First released in February 2024 and then again September to fan frenzy, the original bags came in bold, classic colorways like red, yellow, blue and green. This spring, Trader Joe’s changed things up with a pastel-handled version – and once again, consumers couldn’t shop the bags fast enough.
The new mini totes debuted in-store on Tuesday, April 8th, 2025, and foot traffic estimates indicate a highly successful launch. Visits to Trader Joe’s were up 21.2% on launch day compared to a year-to-date Tuesday average, making it the busiest Tuesday of the year so far. Foot traffic also outpaced the mini totes’ second run on September 18th by 13.7%. Clearly, mini totes are the key to Trader Joe’s fanatics’ hearts.
The success of the program may stem in part from Trader Joe’s strong appeal to consumer segments heavily influenced by social media. In April 2025, the chain saw a higher penetration among “Educated Urbanites” and “Young Professionals” compared to the wider grocery industry – two groups that would be heavily clued into viral product trends.
Another high-profile product drop this April was Target’s Kate Spade collection, featuring women’s apparel, shoes, accessories, and home goods.
On the surface, Kate Spade seems a perfect fit for Target – the two brands share remarkably similar visitor profiles, primarily attracting affluent, suburban families. Both brands also place a strong emphasis on discretionary offerings – and the overlap in aesthetic and consumer preferences makes sense in today’s retail market.
However, in-store visitation on launch day (Saturday, April 12th) was down 6.8% compared to the release day of 2024’s collaboration with designer Diane Von Furstenberg and down 3.0% compared to the launch day of 2023’s collaboration with Agua Bendita, Rhode, and Fe Noel. Still, traffic was up 14.1% compared to the 2018 Hunter release. And the collection also debuted on Target.com at midnight PST the same day, so in-store traffic may not reflect overall demand.
One positive takeaway from the collaboration? Its ability to draw back affluent suburban shoppers – a key Target audience. In April 2025, the median household income (HHI) of Target’s captured market experienced a minor but significant bump – up to $86.4K, compared to $85.9K in March 2025 and $85.7K in April 2024.
Today’s shoppers are in the driver’s seat when it comes to setting trends, and retailers spend more time courting them than positioning themselves as authorities on what’s “cool.” Against this backdrop, retailers and brands are constantly vying for the next big viral sensation – or for those products or collections that become must-shop phenomena.
As retailers grapple with how to provide value to consumers amidst economic uncertainty, these offerings provide a new incentive for shoppers to visit that isn’t solely focused on price. Consumers may indeed perceive limited runs to be higher quality, more valuable or worth the extra investment. The concept of manufactured scarcity isn’t new in retail, but it continues to take on new forms as the consumer and industry evolve. We may reach a point where exclusivity and scarcity no longer move the needle for retailers, but that doesn’t seem likely in 2025.
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Many retail and dining chains performed well in 2024 despite the ongoing economic uncertainty. But with the consumer headwinds continuing into 2025, which brands can continue pulling ahead of the pack?
This report highlights 10 brands (in no particular order) that exhibit significant potential to grow in 2025 – as well as three chains that have faced some challenges in 2024 but appear poised to make a comeback in the year ahead. Which chains made the cut? Dive into the report to find out.
Through 2024, visits to Sprouts Farmers Market locations increased an average of 7.2% year-over-year (YoY) each month, outpacing the wider grocery segment standard by an average of six percentage points. And not only were visits up – monthly visits per location also grew YoY.
The promising coupling of overall and visits per location growth seems driven by the brands’ powerful understanding of who they are and what they bring to the market. The focus on high quality, fresh products is resonating, and the utilization of small- format locations is empowering the chain to bring locations to the doorstep of their ideal audiences.
This combination of forces positions the brand to better identify and reach key markets efficiently, offering an ideal path to continued growth. The result is a recipe for ongoing grocery success.
CAVA has emerged as a standout success story in the restaurant industry over the past several years. Traditionally, Mediterranean concepts have not commanded the same level of demand as burger, sandwich, Mexican, or Asian fast-casual concepts, which is why the category lacked a true national player until CAVA's rise. However, evolving consumer tastes have created a fertile landscape for Mediterranean cuisine to thrive, driven by factors such as social media influence, expanded food options via third-party delivery, growing demand for healthier choices, the rise of food-focused television programming, and the globalization of restaurant concepts .
CAVA’s success can be attributed to several key factors. Roughly 80% of CAVA locations were in suburban areas before the pandemic, aligning well with consumer migration and work-from-home trends. Additionally, CAVA was an early adopter of digital drive-thru lanes, similar to Chipotle’s "Chipotlanes," and began developing these store formats well before the pandemic. The brand has also utilized innovative tools like motion sensors in its restaurants to optimize throughput and staffing during peak lunchtime hours, enabling it to refine restaurant design and equipment placement as it expanded. CAVA’s higher employee retention rates have also contributed to its ability to maintain speed-of-service levels above category averages.
These strengths allowed CAVA to successfully enter new markets like Chicago in 2024. While many emerging brands have struggled to gain traction in new areas, CAVA’s visit-per-location metrics in recently entered markets have matched its national averages, positioning the brand for continued growth in 2025.
Ashley’s recent strategy shift to differentiate itself through experiential events, such as live music, workshops, and giveaways, is a compelling approach in the challenging consumer discretionary category. Post-pandemic, commercial property owners have successfully used community events to boost visit frequency, dwell time, and trade area size for mall properties. It’s no surprise that retailers like Ashley are adopting similar strategies to engage customers and enhance their in-store experience.
The decision to incorporate live events into its marketing strategy reflects the growing demand for experiential and immersive retail experiences. While home furnishings saw a surge in demand during the pandemic, the category has struggled over the past two years, underperforming other discretionary retail sectors compared to pre-pandemic levels. Recognizing this challenge, Ashley’s rebrand focuses on creating interactive and memorable experiences that allow customers to engage directly with its products and explore various design possibilities. In turn, this has helped to drive visits from trade areas with younger consumers with lower household incomes.
Ashley has leaned into collaborations with interior designers and industry experts to offer informative sessions and workshops during these events. These initiatives not only attract traffic but also provide valuable insights into customers’ preferences, which can be used to refine product offerings, enhance customer service, and shape future marketing efforts. This approach is particularly relevant as millennials and Gen Z drive new household formation. While still early, Ashley’s pivot to live events is showing promising results in attracting visits and increasing customer engagement.
Department stores have had many challenges in navigating changing consumer behavior and finding their place in an evolving retail landscape. Nordstrom, an example of department store success in 2024, has been able to maintain a strong brand relationship with its shoppers and regain its footing with its store fleet. While the chain has certainly benefited from catering to a more affluent, and less price sensitive, consumer base, it still shines in fostering a shopping experience that stands out.
Value might be a driver of retail visitation across the industry, but for Nordstrom, service and experience is paramount. The retailer has downplayed promotional activity in favor of driving loyalty among key visitors. Nordstrom also has captured higher shares of high-value, younger consumer segments, which defies commonly held thoughts about department stores. The chain was a top visited chain during Black Friday in 2024, showcasing that it’s top of mind for shoppers for both gift giving and self-gifting.
What’s next? Nordstrom announced at the end of December that it plans to go private with the help of Mexican retail chain Liverpool. We expect to see even more innovation in store experience, assortments and services with this newfound flexibility and investment. And, we cannot forget about Nordstrom Rack, which allows the retailer to still engage price-conscious shoppers of all income levels, which is certainly still a bright spot as we head into 2025.
Visits are up, and the audience visiting Sam’s Club locations seems to be getting younger which – when taken together – tells us a few critical things. First, Sam’s Club has parlayed its pandemic resurgence into something longer term, leveraging the value and experience it provides to create loyal customers. Second, the power of its offering is attracting a newer audience that had previously been less apt to take advantage of the unique Sam’s Club benefits.
The result is a retailer that is proving particularly adept at understanding the value of a visit. The membership club model incentives loyalty which means that once a visitor takes the plunge, the likelihood of more visits is heightened significantly. And the orientation to value, a longer visit duration, and a wide array of items on sale leads to a larger than normal basket size.
In a retail segment where the value of loyalty and owning ‘share of shopping list’ is at a premium, Sam’s Club is positioned for the type of success that builds a foundation for strength for years to come.
Raising Cane’s exemplifies the power of focus by excelling at a simple menu done exceptionally well. Over the past several years, the chain has been one of the fastest-growing in the QSR segment, driven by a streamlined menu that enhances speed and efficiency, innovative marketing campaigns, and strategic site selection in both new and existing markets. Notably, Raising Cane’s ranked among the top QSR chains for visit-per-location growth last year. Unlike many competitors that leaned on deep discounts or nostalgic product launches to boost traffic in 2024, Raising Cane’s relied on operational excellence to build brand awareness and drive visits. This approach has translated into some of the highest average unit sales in the segment, with restaurants averaging around $6 million in sales last year.
Raising Cane’s operational efficiency has also been a key driver of its rapid expansion, growing from 460 locations at the end of 2019 to more than 830 heading into 2025. This includes over 100 new store openings in 2024 alone, placing it among the top QSR chains for year-over-year visit growth. The chain’s ability to maintain exceptional performance while scaling rapidly highlights its strong foundation and operational strategy.
While Life Time has fitness at its core, it has also expanded to become a lifestyle. Healthy living is its mantra and this extends to both the gym aspect, but also the social health of its members with offerings like yoga, childcare, personalized fitness programs, coworking, and even an option for luxury living just steps away.
With all these choices, it’s no wonder that its members are more loyal than others in its peer group.
To the delight of book lovers everywhere, Barnes & Noble is back in force. With a presence in every single state and approximately 600 stores, location options are growing to browse bestsellers, chat with in-store bibliophiles, or grab a latte. Stores are feeling cozier and more local, with handwritten recommendations across the store. The chain’s extensive selection of gifts and toys mean that one can stop in for more than just books. The membership program is also relaunching, rewarding members for their purchases. Even though some locations have downsized, efficiency is up with average visits per square foot increasing over the last 3 years. Customers are also lingering, with nearly 3 in 10 visitors staying 45 minutes or longer.
With options for a “third place” that’s not home or work dwindling, Barnes & Noble is poised to fill that hole.
From its origins as a corner grocery store in Queens, NY 42 years ago, H Mart now boasts over 80 stores throughout the US. Shoppers are enticed by the aroma of hot roasted sweet potatoes wafting through the store, the opportunities to try new brands like Little Jasmine fruit teas, and the array of prepared foods such as gimbap and japchae. In addition to traditional Korean, Chinese, and Japanese groceries, H Mart’s assortment has expanded to staple items and American brands as well like Chobani yogurt or Doritos.
As the Hallyu wave sweeps across the nation and K-pop stars like Rose top the charts for the eight straight week with the catchy “APT”, so too is the appetite for Asian food. At the second-most visited H Mart in the nation in Carrollton, TX, the ethnic makeup of customers is 39% White, 14% Black, 23% Hispanic or Latino, and 20% Asian – reflecting the truly universal appeal of this supermarket chain.
Beauty retail had a transformative 2024, with a general cooling off in demand for the category. Competition between chains has increased and delivering quality products, expertise and services is critical to maintain visits. Against this backdrop, Bluemercury stands out as a shining star in parent company Macy’s portfolio of brands, with the brand well positioned to take on this next chapter of beauty retail.
Bluemercury’s success lies in its ability to be a retailer, an expert, and a spa service provider to its consumers. Placer data has shown that beauty chains with a service and retail component tend to attract more visitors than those who just specialize in retail offerings, and Bluemercury is no exception. The chain also focuses solely on the prestige market within the beauty industry and caters to higher income households compared to the broader beauty category; both of those factors have contributed to more elastic demand than with other retailers.
Bluemercury’s bet on product expertise and knowledge combined with a smaller format store help to foster a strong connection between the beauty retailer and its consumers. The brand overindexes with visitors “seeking youthful appearance” and has cemented itself as a destination for niche and emerging beauty brands. As the larger Macy’s brand grapples with its transformation, Bluemercury’s relevance and deep connection to its consumer base can serve as an inspiration, especially as the beauty industry faces mounting uncertainty.
Competitors like Dutch Bros and 7Brew are on the rise, critical office visitation patterns remain far behind pre-pandemic levels, and the chain did not end the year in the most amazing way in terms of visit performance. But there is still so much to love about Starbucks – and the addition of new CEO Brian Niccol positions the coffee giant to rebound powerfully.
The focused attention on leaning into its legendary ‘third place’ concept is in excellent alignment with the shift to the suburbs and hybrid work and with audiences that continue to show they value experience over convenience. But the convenience-oriented customer will likely also benefit from the brand’s recent initiatives, including pushes to improve staffing, mobile ordering alignment and menu simplification. In addition, the brand is still the gold standard when it comes to owning the calendar, as seen with their annual visit surges for the release of the Pumpkin Spice Latte or Red Cup Day and their ability to capitalize on wider retail holidays like Black Friday and Super Saturday.
The combination of the tremendous reach, brand equity, remaining opportunities in growing markets and the combined ability to address both convenience and experience oriented customers speaks to a unique capacity to regain lost ground and drive a significant resurgence against the expectations of many.
Retail has had its challenges this year, with many consumers opting for off-price to snag deals – but the strength of the Adidas brand should not be underestimated. Gazelles and Sambas are still highly coveted, and a partnership with Messi x Bad Bunny racked up over a million likes. Consumers are favoring classic silhouettes across both shoes and clothing, and nothing says classic like those three stripes.
Gap, and its family of brands including Old Navy and Banana Republic, are synonymous with American apparel retail. The namesake brand has always been at the center of comfort, value and style, but over time lost its way with consumers. However, over the past year and a half, the reinvigoration of the Gap family of brands has started to take shape under the direction of CEO Richard Dickson.
New designs, collaborations, splashy marketing campaigns and store layouts have taken shape across the portfolio. While we haven’t seen a lot of change in visitation to stores over the past year, trends are certainly moving in the right direction and outpacing many other brands in the apparel space. Gap has also reinserted itself into the fabric of American fashion this past year with designs for the Met Gala.
The benefit of Gap Inc.’s portfolio is that each brand has a distinct and unique audience of consumers that it draws from. This allows each brand to focus on meeting the needs of its visitors directly instead of trying to be all things for a broader group of consumers. Old Navy in particular has a strong opportunity with consumers as value continues to be a key motivator.
Gap has done all of the right things to not only catch up to consumers’ expectations but to rise beyond them. Even as legacy store-based retail brands have seen more disruption over the past few years, Gap is ready to step back into the spotlight.
The diversity of brands featured in this report highlight the variety of categories and strategic initiatives that can drive retail and dining success in 2025.
Sprouts’ focus on quality products and small-format stores, CAVA’s rise as a suburban dining powerhouse, and Nordstrom’s commitment to customer experience all highlight how understanding and responding to consumer needs can drive success. Brands like Ashley Furniture, Sam’s Club, H Mart, and Life Time have shown how offering a unique value proposition within a crowded segment, leveraging loyalty, and creating memorable experiences can fuel growth. And Raising Cane’s demonstrates the power of simplicity and operational efficiency in building momentum.
At the same time, niche players like Bluemercury are excelling by catering to specific audiences with authenticity and expertise. And while Starbucks, Adidas, and Gap Inc. face challenges, the three companies’ brand equity and revitalization efforts suggest potential for a significant comeback.
The holiday shopping season traditionally stretches from Black Friday to New Years Eve: Shoppers looking to snag deals, purchase gifts, or enhance their celebrations drive visit spikes at retailers across the country. And although many consumers expressed concern over high prices impacting their holiday budget, spending in 2024 actually increased compared to 2023, with brick-and-mortar stores playing a key role in last year’s holiday season.
So where were the largest holiday spikes? How did last year’s calendar configuration impact retail traffic? Which segment came out ahead – and how did dining fit into the mix? Most importantly – what can we learn from the 2024 holiday season to prepare for 2025?
The holiday shopping season is the busiest time of the year for many retail categories. Between Black Friday and December 31st 2024, daily visits to brick-and-mortar stores increased 12.7%, on average, compared to the rest of the year.
Department stores led the pack, with visits to the segment 102.1% higher than the pre-holiday season average – likely aided by strong Black Friday performances. Other favorite gifting categories, including beauty & self care (72.7%), hobbies, gifts & crafts (60.9%), recreational & sporting goods (55.5%), clothing (41.8%), and electronics stores (32.7%) also received significant traffic boosts. Shopping centers benefited as well with a 24.8% increase in daily visits over the holiday season. Retailers in these segments can capitalize on their holiday popularity and stand out amidst the crowd by promoting their brand early and ensuring their staffing and inventory can accommodate the season’s traffic increases.
The holidays are also a time for entertainment – and purchasing gifts for hosts – which likely helped drive the 48.4% and 41.7% traffic increases at liquor stores and at furniture & home furnishings retailers, respectively. Superstores and discount & dollar stores – with their selection of affordable giftable products and entertainment essentials – also saw holiday-driven visit bumps of 21.2% and 20.2%, respectively. Retailers may choose to highlight seasonal items and hosting-friendly products to increase these traffic bumps in 2025.
Pet stores & services received a smaller (10.0%) bump than the wider retail average – indicating that, although some shoppers buy gifts for their fur babies, pets may not be at the top of most Americans’ gift lists. And visits to the home improvement segment were essentially on par with the pre-holiday period – indicating that the holidays are not the time for extensive home renovation projects. But home improvement chains looking to get in on the holiday action might consider promoting decorations and smaller giftable items in December.
And despite the grocery frenzy of Turkey Wednesday and Christmas Eve Eve, the Grocery segment received a relatively minor holiday boost of 5.0% – perhaps due to holiday travelers skipping their weekly grocery haul. Grocers who lean into prepared foods or pre-packaged meal kits might get an additional bump.
Although the holidays drive retail visit surges across the country, some regions see a bigger traffic bump than others.
In December 2024, almost all 50 states (with the exception of Wyoming ) received a holiday-driven retail traffic boost ranging from a 3.3% (Montana) to a 16.8% (New Hampshire). On a regional basis, the South received the largest increase: The West South Central, East South Central, and South Atlantic divisions received a collective 12.2% increase in daily visits between Black Friday and New Years Eve compared to the pre-Black Friday daily average. (Washington, D.C. saw a slight visit decline of 0.4%, likely due to the many residents leaving the capital for the holiday break.) Retailers in this region may choose to increase staffing and inventory ahead of the 2025 holiday season to handle the increased demand.
Meanwhile, the Midwest region had the smallest holiday-driven traffic spike (9.2%) – despite starting the season ahead of the pack, with the highest Black Friday weekend visit boost. This suggests that Midwestern retailers may have more success with early promotions than with last-minute discounts.
While the holiday season drove an overall retail visit boost nationwide, diving deeper into the data reveals that different retail segments peak at different points of the holiday season.
Most categories – especially the ones that tend to offer steep post-Thanksgiving discounts, such as recreational & sporting goods, department stores, electronics stores, and beauty retailers – received the biggest visit spikes on Black Friday. Retailers in these categories may benefit from promotional campaigns ahead of Thanksgiving to cater to early shoppers and maximize their performance on their busiest day.
Other segments that carry more affordable gifts, stocking stuffers, and food items gained momentum as Christmas approached – with superstores visits spiking on December 23rd and discount & dollar stores peaking on December 24th. These retailers may get even larger end-of-year visit bumps by offering discounts and bundles to last-minute shoppers.
The grocery segment received its largest boost ahead of Thanksgiving, with visits also surging on the days before Christmas as home cooks picked up supplies for the holiday dinner. Grocers who can save their shoppers time during this busy period by offering curbside pickup, pre-prepped ingredients or meal kits, and other conveniences may see particularly strong performances in 2025.
Calendar shifts also play an important role in shaping holiday shopping patterns. Last year, Super Saturday and “Christmas Eve Eve” – each a significant milestone in its own right – coincided on December 23rd, 2023 to create a supercharged shopping event that generated massive visit spikes at retailers across categories.
But in 2024, when the milestones occurred separately, important differences emerged between retailers. Gift-shopping destinations like Macy’s, Nordstrom, and Best Buy saw bigger visit spikes on Super Saturday, while retailers like Target, Walmart, and Costco – carrying both gifts and food items – saw visits surge higher on December 23rd. Dollar Tree, a prime destination for affordable stocking stuffers, also experienced a more pronounced visit spike on Super Saturday.
Predictably, this year’s pre-Christmas milestones generally drove smaller individual visit spikes, as shoppers spread their errands across a longer period. But the stand-alone Super Saturday on December 21st 2024 also allowed consumers to prioritize gift-shopping on Saturday and shop for groceries and last minute stocking stuffers on December 23rd – benefiting certain retailers.
Nordstrom, for instance, saw visits soar to 215.9% above the chain’s 2024 daily average on December 21, 2024 – surpassing the 196.2% increase recorded on December 23, 2023. Macy’s also experienced a slightly higher Super Saturday visit boost this year. Next year, retailers can expect another spread-out pre-Christmas shopping period, with Super Saturday falling on December 20th, 2025 – five days before the holiday. Gift-focused retailers can leverage this timing by ramping up promotions in the run-up to Super Saturday – or by enhancing offerings on December 23rd to capture more late-season shoppers.
Big box retailers like Target, Walmart, and Costco, conversely, can double down on December 23rd or amplify earlier deals to capture a larger share of Super Saturday traffic. And retailers across categories can benefit from the more extended last-minute shopping period by implementing multi-day sales and promotions that encourage repeat visits and drive traffic throughout the week.
Turkey Wednesday – the day before Thanksgiving – is traditionally the grocery sector’s time to shine. And this year didn’t disappoint: On November 27th, 2024, visits to traditional grocery mainstays like Kroger, Safeway, and H-E-B shot up by a remarkable 66.9% to 79.2% compared to the 2024 daily average. And on December 23rd, foot traffic to the chains rose once again, though somewhat more moderately, as shoppers geared up for Christmas celebrations.
But the holiday season stock-up, it turns out, is about more than just food. Whether to help smooth out the rough edges of family interactions or to take celebrations to the next level, consumers also make pre-holiday runs to liquor stores. On Turkey Wednesday, leading spirit purveyors outperformed traditional grocery stores with epic 140.1% to 236.5% visit spikes. And the day before Christmas Eve was an even bigger milestone for the segment, with foot traffic skyrocketing by a staggering 153.6% to 283.8% above daily averages.
Ethnic supermarkets – chains like El Super and Vallarta Supermarket – also thrived on these traditional pre-holiday grocery store milestones. But like liquor stores, they saw bigger visit spikes on December 23rd, as customers likely sought out ingredients for their festive holiday dinners.
Grocery stores seeking to maximize the power of these pre-holiday milestones in 2025 could enhance their liquor selections and launch targeted promotions in the lead-up to both Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Dining venues are also impacted by the rhythms of the holiday season – but each segment within the dining industry follows its own unique seasonal trajectory.
Visits to the fast-casual, coffee, and fine-dining segments increased the week before Thanksgiving, with fast-casual and coffee visits peaking on Wednesday and fine-dining peaking on Thanksgiving day. Both coffee and fine-dining chains also received a small traffic bump on Black Friday, with coffee traffic likely aided by consumers looking to refuel during their shopping.
But beginning in mid-December, the fine-dining category pulled ahead of the other dining segments, picking up steam as the month wore on before peaking on December 23rd and 24th. And while traffic predictably declined on Christmas Day, the drop was less pronounced than for the other analyzed segments. Fine dining then resumed its strong showing on December 26th, maintaining elevated visits through the following days, potentially reflecting its appeal as a festive holiday dining destination for families.
Coffee chains and fast-casual restaurants also enjoyed moderately elevated December traffic, with smaller visit spikes on December 23rd. Traffic to both segments then slowed during the holiday – though coffee chains continued to see higher-than-average foot traffic on Christmas Eve – before tapering off as the month drew to a close.
Looking ahead to 2025, each dining segment can take steps to maximize its holiday impact. Fine dining chains can attract more special-occasion celebrants with unique holiday-themed menu items – paired with targeted promotions that make its premium offerings more accessible to families. Meanwhile, fast-casual and coffee chains can capitalize on high-traffic days like December 23rd by catering to the needs of busy holiday shoppers – extending operating hours and offering streamlined ordering and pickup options.
The 2024 holiday season proved strong for most retail categories, with each retail category displaying a different holiday visit pattern. This year’s calendar layout also presented a unique advantage, with a longer stretch between Super Saturday and Christmas compared to last year.
By analyzing 2024 holiday regional visit trends, understanding the role that each year’s specific calendar configuration plays in shaping consumer behavior, and identifying the unique retail milestones for each chain and category, retail and dining stakeholders can refine their strategies and make the most of the 2025 holiday season.
