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Pacsun has seen its fair share of challenges in its more than forty years of business. Now, the brand is entering a new phase of growth, with a major brick-and-mortar expansion alongside concrete steps to engage Gen Z consumers. We dove into the data for several Pacsun locations outperforming their host malls to understand what a growing footprint could mean for shopping centers and how the brand is connecting with young consumers online and off.
Pacsun has faced its share of challenges over the years. More recently, however, the legacy brand and mall staple appears to be in the midst of a renaissance – with plans to further expand its domestic brick-and-mortar footprint in 2026.
Foot traffic data for several Pacsun locations that experienced notable foot traffic growth in 2025 suggests that the brand’s stores have the potential to help drive traffic to the shopping centers that host them. At The Promenade Shops at Centerra in Colorado, visits to Pacsun rose 35.7% YoY in 2025, significantly outpacing the -5.5% visit gap of the mall as a whole.
Psychographic segmentation suggests that beyond driving visits, these locations also help attract key young demographics to the mall.
At Winter Garden Village, for example, the Gen Z-aligned "Young Professionals" segment accounted for 19.4% of the Pacsun store’s captured market, compared to the mall’s 16.2% share of the segment.
These locations may be an example of how Pacsun’s physical retail presence works together with its social-sales strategy to engage with a younger generation; driving traffic, in part, by serving as spaces to experience products seen on trusted social channels or at creator-led events.
And Pacsun appears firmly committed to its younger audience as part of its wider strategy. Although the brand looks to move upmarket, the latest example of which being the launch of a premium eyewear collection, by maintaining what it views as an accessible price point, Pacsun remains focused on consumers yet to reach their peak earning years.
Pacsun’s ability to drive traffic from this key demographic makes it an attractive potential tenant for malls looking to build long-term loyalty among younger audiences with earning potential.
The Pacsun model demonstrates that physical retail remains a critical touchpoint for brands investing in digital engagement and younger audiences. With plans to open dozens of new locations over the next few years, Pacsun emerges as a compelling tenant for shopping centers seeking cultural relevance and the next generation of consumers.
For more retail insights, visit Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
The grocery category saw notable shifts in consumer behavior in 2025 as inflation and tariff uncertainty continued to weigh on household budgets. Analyzing consumer traffic trends for several grocery formats – including wholesale clubs, which serve as primary grocery destinations for many families – reveals how evolving consumer preferences shaped grocery performance in 2025 and highlights key lessons for grocers and CPG companies heading into 2026.
Like many retail categories in 2025, grocery was shaped by continued economic uncertainty and value-seeking behavior. But AI-powered location analytics shows that consumers also prioritized quality when forming a value perception in the grocery space.
The graph below shows that grocery visits increased across formats, likely reflecting consumers’ shift toward more meals at home as a way to save money in a persistently inflationary environment.
Fresh format grocers posted the strongest year-over-year (YoY) visit growth, perhaps due to their selection of prepared foods and salad bars as an alternative to eating out, as well as their emphasis on health and wellness – an emerging priority among grocery shoppers. Meanwhile, value grocers and wholesale clubs, known for their ability to deliver savings, consistently outperformed traditional grocers in YoY visit growth.
These patterns indicate that consumers are increasingly weighing up quality and price in the grocery aisle, a trend that is driving the expansion of private-label offerings.
As consumers substituted restaurant meals with more cost-conscious options, grocery stores also emerged as increasingly important destinations for quick, convenient lunches.
Analyzing relative visit share between the grocery category and quick-service restaurants (QSRs) shows that between 2024 and 2025, grocery stores claimed an increasingly large share of short midday visits – i.e. visits lasting less than ten minutes between 11:00 AM and 3:00 PM.
And while some of QSR’s relative decline in short lunchtime visits could be due to discontent with rising fast-food prices among highly value-conscious consumers, it also suggests that a growing share of consumers see grocery stores – where they can pick up ready-to-eat items – as convenient options during the lunch rush. Traditional grocers saw the largest increase in short midday visits (from 15.9% to 16.6%) while value and fresh format grocers saw more modest increases. Notably, the share of short midday visits to wholesale clubs was unchanged between 2024 and 2025 (2.1%), perhaps since these chains don’t offer the same pre-prepared and small-package options like other grocery formats.
These metrics underscore the strong demand for on-the-go meal options and single-serving, shelf-stable products that both grocery stores and CPG companies can provide.
Beyond the lunchtime rush, celebration-driven demand continued to play a central role in grocery traffic this year. Like in past years, Turkey Wednesday – the day before Thanksgiving – was by far the busiest grocery shopping day of the year, with category visits up 80.5% compared to the 2025 daily average. Several of the year’s other busiest grocery days similarly fell immediately ahead of major holidays, including New Year’s Eve, Easter, Mother’s Day, and the 4th of July, as consumers stocked up ahead of gatherings with family and friends.
Leading up to Christmas, grocery shopping appeared to be spread across several high-traffic days rather than concentrated on a single peak; Christmas Eve and December 23rd had nearly identical foot traffic boosts of 57.9% and 58.0%, respectively. And even December 22nd – three days before Christmas – stood out as one of the year’s busiest grocery shopping days, with visits running 28.9% above average for 2025.
Some consumers may have made multiple “re-stocking” grocery trips in the days leading up to Christmas – potentially driven by the presence of out-of-town guests requiring ongoing food replenishment – or visited multiple stores to secure specific ingredients for holiday meals.
Grocers could leverage this trend by stocking a wide range of holiday-specific ingredients and rotating promotions that encourage repeat visits ahead of Thanksgiving and Christmas.
The grocery landscape in 2025 was also shaped by distinct shopping preferences across demographic groups.
AI-powered captured market data combined with the STI: PopStats dataset shows that singles – defined as non-family and one-person households – heavily favored fresh-format grocers, while households with children were most likely to visit wholesale clubs and value grocers.
Grocers and CPGs can unlock growth by tailoring assortments and promotional strategies to their target audience – emphasizing bulk value and price-driven messaging for family shoppers, while leaning into curated selection, prepared foods, and convenience to engage singles.
Several consumer trends shaped the grocery space in 2025 – including holiday visit surges, the prioritization of value, and convenient on-the-go meals.
How will these trends shape the grocery space in 2026? Visit Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Even as return-to-office (RTO) mandates continue to accumulate, December operates on a different rhythm – shaped as much by holiday flexibility and inclement weather as by formal policy. We dove into the data to see how office attendance reflected these dynamics this year.
In December 2025, visits to office buildings nationwide were 33.1% below 2019 levels – 36.2% below when accounting for working days – the widest year-over-six-year (Yo6Y) gap seen in recent months on a per-working-day basis.
But the softness appears to reflect shifting work patterns rather than a stalled recovery. Despite slowing from recent months, December 2025 was still the busiest in-office December since COVID, suggesting that the slowdown was driven by seasonal rhythms rather than any substantive pullback in office attendance.
December has long followed a different in-office rhythm than the rest of the year – and despite return-to-office mandates, many companies likely relax on-site expectations during the holidays, allowing employees to work remotely while traveling or spending time with family. Much like the TGIF workweek, which sees a consistent drop-off in office activity on Fridays despite RTO pushes, the December dip may simply reflect the solidification of a new post-COVID seasonal norm.
Local factors also appear to have impacted December office attendance. Miami saw a visit gap of just 10.9% versus 2019, followed by Dallas at 18.8%. As warm-weather cities that also see the highest Friday office attendance among the analyzed markets, both may be less susceptible to holiday-adjacent work-from-home behavior.
New York City, by contrast, recorded a 19.6% visit gap, likely weighed down by harsher winter weather and an early, severe flu season. And Chicago trailed the pack with a 47.6% visit gap, pointing to a sharper seasonal pullback that may have been amplified by winter conditions, elevated flu activity, and workers opting to travel to warmer destinations during the holidays.
The year-over-year (YoY) analysis further reinforces that December’s softness is seasonal rather than a reflection of a true RTO slowdown. Even after adjusting for the number of working days, nationwide office visits rose 4.9% YoY, and every tracked market posted gains.
That said, growth remained uneven across major cities. San Francisco posted the strongest YoY gains, even as it continued to trail most other analyzed markets in overall office recovery – reflecting an ongoing vibe shift in a city once defined by post-pandemic pessimism. And with the city’s AI-driven leasing boom showing no signs of slowing, that momentum appears likely to carry into 2026.
Elsewhere, YoY gains were smaller than in San Francisco but still meaningful, pointing to steady progress across markets even as recovery paths vary by city.
The data suggests that December’s softening reflects predictable holiday-season flexibility rather than weakening momentum. And with several high-profile return-to-office mandates set to take effect in early 2026 – and other employers continuing to nudge attendance higher through quieter forms of “hybrid creep”– the broader office recovery appears poised to reassert itself in the new year.
For more data-driven office insights follow Placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
Back in April 2025, I channeled my inner Peter King and made nine predictions about retail's biggest players in my article "All The Things I Think I Think About Retail Over The Last Quarter."
Now, with eight months of hindsight and fresh data in my rearview, it's time for a reckoning. It is time to examine what I got right, what I got wrong, and, most importantly, what I learned from the overall exercise.
Or, put simply, I guess you could say that what lies in front of you, dear reader, is my assessment of how well I think I thought.
Grade: F (Spectacularly Wrong)
What I predicted: "Buchanan did a wonderful job instilling an omnichannel foundation at Michaels... Buchanan is the right man for the job at Kohl's. But I do not envy Buchanan. Not. One. Bit."
What actually happened: Well, I was right that I should not have envied him. Ashley Buchanan was fired for cause after just over 100 days in May 2025 following an investigation that revealed he violated company policies by directing Kohl's to engage in vendor transactions involving undisclosed conflicts of interest. Specifically, he had a romantic relationship with a vendor (Incredibrew CEO Chandra Holt) that he failed to disclose while pushing through deals with what has been reported as "highly unusual terms favorable to the vendor."
The twist: This wasn't about performance. It was about ethics. Kohl's board found Buchanan guilty of serious misconduct, and he was forced to forfeit $15 million in stock awards and repay $2.5 million of his signing bonus. The company is now on its fourth CEO in four years, with Michael Bender (a retail veteran from Walmart and PepsiCo) taking the helm in late 2025.
The reality: Buchanan's tenure at Kohl's will go down as one of the shortest and most ignominious CEO stints in retail history. I predicted he'd have his work cut out for him, but I didn't predict he'd be fired before he could even start the real work it would take to turn Kohl’s around.
The Lesson: Sometimes the biggest risk isn't the turnaround. It's the person at the helm. And, fortunately for Kohl’s, the Street appears to be responding to Mr. Bender, as the stock price has appreciated by a factor of four since he took over for Buchanan in April.
Grade: A+ (Nailed It)
What I predicted: "Costco held to a position that many others, including Walmart, Target, and Tractor Supply Company, have not... for all intents and purposes, at least initially, Costco appears to be holding strong to its principles and doing just fine."
What actually happened: I was spot on. Costco's Q3 2025 results immediately following the decision by shareholders to vote down a measure to assess DEI risks showed 8% revenue growth, U.S. comparable sales up 7.9% (excluding gas deflation), and net income up 13.2% year-over-year.
Even more telling: While Target hemorrhaged traffic following its DEI rollback, Costco gained during the same period, and took many shoppers from Target I might add.
Flash forward to year-end performance: Costco's fiscal year-end results, for its fiscal year that ended on August 31, 2025, demonstrated sustained strength. Net sales for Q4 increased 8.0% to $84.4 billion, while full-year sales reached $269.9 billion, up 8.1%. Comparable sales for the full year grew 5.9% (7.6% adjusted for gas and foreign exchange), with e-commerce sales exceeding $19.6 billion for the year, up 15%. Membership fee income, Costco's profit engine, also reached $5.32 billion, up 10.4% over the previous year.
Most recent results (Q1 Fiscal 2026): The momentum continued into the new fiscal year. For the quarter ended November 23, 2025, Costco reported net sales of $66.0 billion, up 8.2% year-over-year, with EPS of $4.50 beating analyst expectations of $4.27. Comparable sales rose 6.4%, while digitally-enabled sales surged an impressive 20.5%. Digital traffic jumped 24% and app traffic exploded 48% year-over-year.
But what about the stock?: While Costco's business has been phenomenal, Costco’s stock price tells a more nuanced story. After spectacular gains of 49% in 2023 and 39.6% in 2024, shares hit an all-time high of $1,078 in February 2025. However, at the time this article was written, the stock has since pulled back approximately 20% from that peak, ending 2025 down roughly 6% year-to-date and about 12% over the trailing twelve months, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's 17% gain over the same period.
Zoom out: Over the past two years, Costco’s stock price is still far beyond where it was at the close of 2023, when it sat right around $700 per share. The stock currently trades around $850-860 per share at a forward P/E of approximately 46x, which analysts cite as the primary reason for the recent underperformance as opposed to any fundamental business weakness (Target, for comparison, trades at a P/E of 11-12x).
The Lesson: Principles and profits aren't mutually exclusive when backed by operational excellence. Costco proved that standing firm on values, combined with relentless execution, membership growth, digital transformation, and an unwavering focus on member value can strengthen your brand and drive superior business results. Short-term stock volatility driven by valuation concerns shouldn’t diminish the fundamental vindication of the strategy.
Grade: A (Nearly Perfect)
What I predicted: "Sprouts has done a masterful job rightsizing its store prototype... The one driving an 11.5% comp in Sprouts' most recent quarter? It still has a lot more room to grow."
What actually happened: Sprouts absolutely crushed it. In Q2 2025, Sprouts delivered a 17% net sales increase and 10.2% comparable sales growth, and followed that up in Q3 with another 5.9% comp on top of a big 2024 Q3 comp of 8.4% The company also plans to open 37 new stores in 2025 and saw e-commerce sales jump 21% in the most recent quarter.
Even more impressive: EBIT margins expanded from 6.7% to 8.1% in Q2 and also performed nicely in Q3 at 7.2%, demonstrating that Sprouts is achieving both top line and profitable growth. CEO Jack Sinclair's strategy of right-sizing stores, improving differentiation, and launching a loyalty program (rolled out in Q3) is firing on all cylinders.
The only minor caveat: Growth moderated slightly in Q3 (comp sales of 5.9%) and Q4 guidance calls for just 0-2% comp growth, suggesting some normalization. But with 464 stores across 24 states and record numbers at its back, Sprouts is still positioned for continued expansion.
The Lesson: When a retailer gets the fundamentals right, i.e. store format, location strategy, and customer experience, that’s when lightning gets caught in a bottle.
Grade: B+ (Appropriately Skeptical)
What I predicted: "One should take the results of tests like these (Macy’s First 50 store strategy) with a fine grain of salt... As the focus wears off, tests like these usually revert back to the mean. And, the mean... won't keep the Macy's Day parade balloons afloat."
What actually happened: Macy’s ended 2025 on a high note. Not necessarily a Celine Dion-like high note but a high note nonetheless. In its most recent quarter (Macy’s Q3), Macy’s Inc. posted its strongest performance in the last three years, with comps increasing 3.2% and also putting its two-year stack at a respectable 2.0%.
The First 50 stores, aka the Macy’s stores alluded to above that have received extra special attention from Macy’s, have consistently outperformed the rest of the Macy's chain throughout 2025, posting relative comparable sales gains while the overall chain has lagged behind. So much so that, by the end of Q3, Macy's had expanded the program to 125 stores (now called the "First 125").
But here's where my skepticism may still be justified: The overall Macy's namesake banner is still bleeding. Net sales for the namesake brand fell 2.3% in Q3, while comps for stores slated to remain open rose 2.3% and those at revamped stores (aka the “First 125”) rose 2.7%. Comparable sales for fiscal 2025 at Macy’s are now expected to be flat to up to 1%, compared to the previous flat to down 1.5% outlook from the previous quarter.
CEO Tony Spring, to his immense credit, is right that the investments are showing results. The stores with enhanced staffing, better merchandising, and improved visuals are indeed performing. However, I was also right that 50 (now 125) is a long way from 350, and the "mean" performance of the rest of the chain is still dragging the Macy’s namesake brand down. The First 50/125 strategy may indeed be working, at least for now, but anniversarying growth year-over-year is no easy feat.
The Lesson: The jury is still out on whether tactical improvements can overcome larger strategic challenges. Macy's First 50 could end up being the equivalent of putting premium gas in a car that needs a new engine. Right now, I am only willing to go so far as to say that the new paint job, however, is making a difference.
Grade: A- (Strong Directional Call)
What I predicted: "Bloomingdale's, unlike Macy's, could be onto something with its small format strategy... The majority of the country has no idea what a Bloomingdale's experience is like."
What actually happened: Bloomingdale's absolutely shined in 2025. Q4 comparable sales jumped 9% year-over-year on an owned-plus-licensed-plus-marketplace basis, making it the strongest performer in the Macy's Inc. portfolio. The smaller-format Bloomie's stores continued to show promising traffic patterns, with year-over-year visit growth outpacing the general department store industry by a wide margin.
CEO Tony Spring has resisted calls to spin off Bloomingdale's, citing synergies, but the performance gap between Bloomie's and Macy's continues to widen, validating my assessment that "Bloomie's is a different story," both as an overall concept and as a smaller store idea.
The Lesson: Scarcity creates value. When you only have 33 full-line stores, a smaller format can be a growth vehicle rather than a cannibalizer, so I expect to see more of the small format Bloomie’s stores in 2026 and 2027.
Grade: A+ (Depressingly Accurate)
What I predicted: "Target's former beachheads are now all under siege... Something is causing the temperature of Target's porridge to feel just not quite right... Its new $15 billion growth plan is potentially a step in the right direction. However, I worry that, when one looks under the covers of that plan, all he or she will find is the same owned brand gobbledygook."
What actually happened: Target imploded. According to CNBC, the retailer posted negative comp store sales declines in every quarter of 2025, with Q2 comp sales down 1.9% and then down another 2.7% in Q3. Brian Cornell announced he's stepping down as CEO in February 2026 after 11 years, to be replaced by COO Michael Fiddelke, an insider who helped develop the current struggling strategy.
The stock has been decimated: down 49% over five years (while Walmart is up 118% and Costco up 135%), and down 30% in the past year alone. Analysts now rate Cornell as one of the worst CEOs in America, with 28 of 38 analysts rating Target as Sell or Hold.
My concerns about the $15 billion growth plan were prescient. It's heavily dependent on the same owned-brand strategy that's been failing, and the recent DEI rollback in January 2025 resulted in a boycott that, as we discussed above, cost Target shoppers this year.
Activist investors are now calling for an independent board chair, and the succession to Fiddelke has been widely criticized as more "entrenched groupthink" from a company that's lost touch with consumers.
The Lesson: Don’t believe the hype. When you're the goldilocks story whose success rested upon competitors going bankrupt and being one of the few available one-stop-shop options during the pandemic, eventually borrowed time runs out.
Grade: A (Excellent Timing)
What I predicted: "Wayfair's CEO Niraj Shah is as shrewd as they come, and he may just be betting on stores right as a big tailwind is ready to hit his back."
What actually happened: Wayfair announced not one, not two, but FOUR new large-format stores since my article. Atlanta (early 2026), Yonkers (2027), Denver (late 2026), and Columbus (late 2026, testing a smaller 70,000 sq ft format). The inaugural Wilmette, Illinois store, also appears to be what I would call a success. According to Wayfair:
Even more validating: The home furnishings industry is due for a rebound (at some point), and Wayfair's physical retail push could be timed exactly as that rebound crests.
The Lesson: Sometimes the best time to invest is when everyone else is pulling back, which is why Niraj Shah's timing and execution, I predict, will one day be viewed as a stroke of genius in the annals of retail history.
Grade: C (Directionally Correct, But Still Needs Improvement)
What I predicted: "Given that Niccol (Starbucks’ CEO) has only been in his role since September, these results at least have the aroma of an early turnaround."
What actually happened: This one's complicated. Starbucks' turnaround under Brian Niccol has shown signs of life but it's been slower and messier than hoped. For most of fiscal 2025, same-store sales continued to decline (down 1% in Q2 and down 2% in Q3). However, Q4 2025 finally delivered positive global comparable sales growth for the first time in seven quarters.
The bright spots: North America comps improved to flat in Q4, and U.S. comp sales turned positive in September and stayed positive through October. Its "Green Apron Service" initiative, Starbucks says, is showing early promise, with pilot locations seeing transaction growth and service time improvements and its August rollout also being correlated to the recent improvement in results.
The challenges: The turnaround required significant corporate restructuring, store closures, labor strikes, and China being moved to a joint venture. Revenue was up modestly, but adjusted EPS fell significantly for most of the year.
My prediction about Niccol "righting the ship" was directionally correct. By late 2025, momentum has been building. But it's been a longer, harder journey than the "early aroma" suggested. While some critics have also labeled him among 2025's "worst CEOs" for the ongoing struggles, that moniker, in my opinion, is incredibly harsh and unfounded so early in his tenure, and especially when Buchanan and Cornell have about a 50 furlong lead as we round the turn on 2025.
The Lesson: Turnarounds in retail are hard, even with proven talent. Niccol's "Back to Starbucks" strategy may in fact be working. It may just take longer than investors had hoped.
Grade: A+ (Absolute Bullseye)
What I predicted: "For the past six years, Sam's Club has sat atop my list as the most innovative retailer in America not named Amazon... The combination of a digital-first shopping experience and a growing percentage of younger people shopping in its stores means that Sam's Club is positioned to create the most one-to-one personalized shopping experience out there."
What actually happened: Sam's Club absolutely dominated in 2025. Q4 comparable sales (excluding fuel) were up 6.8%, e-commerce sales grew 24%, and membership income achieved five consecutive quarters of double-digit growth (up 12.5% in Q4). The numbers I cited, specifically in my April article, 1 in 3 shoppers using Scan & Go, 63% growth in Gen Z membership over two years, and 14% growth in millennial membership, appear to be fueling the fire.
For example, Sam’s Club announced ambitious plans in April to double memberships and more than double sales and profit over the next 8-10 years. Its Member's Mark private label brand represents 50% of its merchandise sales growth over the last two years. Its digital penetration is at a record high, with e-commerce now accounting for an astounding 18% of sales and expected to reach 40% in the next few years, a Sam’s Club goal that 1) if true and 2) if accomplished, will leave many retailers eating Sam’s dust.
Oh, and one more thing, Sam's Club also surpassed Costco in the American Customer Satisfaction Index because of its technology innovations like Scan & Go and its AI powered exit archways. And its new Grapevine, Texas store will serve as a laboratory to push the boundaries of this tech even further.
Everything I said about Sam's Club being "the retailer more people should be talking about" was vindicated. They're crushing it across every metric. You name it. Sales, innovation, membership growth, younger demographics, retail media potential. Sam’s has simply been hitting it out of the park.
The Lesson: Innovation doesn’t happen overnight. It comes from a hell or high water commitment to R&D year-over-year, something for which many retailers don’t have the stomach.
| Prediction | Grade | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Kohl's / Buchanan | F | Fired for ethics violations in 100 days |
| Costco DEI Stance | A+ | Revenue up 8%, vindicated completely |
| Sprouts Growth | A | 17% sales growth, margin expansion |
| Macy's First 50 | B+ | Working but not enough to save chain |
| Bloomingdale's Small Format | A- | 9% comp growth, clear differentiation |
| Target Struggles | A+ | Stock down 49%, CEO stepping down |
| Wayfair Physical Retail | A | 4 new stores announced, Illinois success |
| Starbucks Turnaround | C | Turning positive but slower than hoped |
| Sam's Club Innovation | A+ | 6.8% comps, crushing all metrics |
Overall GPA: 3.22 / 4.0 (B+)
Looking across these nine predictions, several themes emerge:
1. Innovation Without Execution Is Worthless – Target had digital tools, owned brands, and a PR-loving CEO. But without operational excellence and strategic clarity, none of it mattered. Meanwhile, Sam's Club, Costco and Sprouts all executed relentlessly on clear strategies.
2. Values Can Be a Competitive Advantage – Costco proved that standing firm on DEI didn't hurt business. It helped. While competitors retreated, Costco gained traffic, membership loyalty, and shareholder confidence.
3. Physical Retail Isn't Dead. It's Just Evolving – Wayfair, Sam's Club, and even Bloomingdale's showed that physical stores still matter, and especially when they're reimagined around experience, convenience, and brand differentiation.
4. Turnarounds Take Time – Starbucks and Macy's both demonstrated that fixing broken operations is harder and slower than expected. Even great CEOs need patience and resources.
5. The Gap Between Winners and Losers Is Widening – There's less middle ground than ever. You're either innovating and winning, or you're falling behind.
So, what do I think of what I thought?
I think I’ll take it. In this topsy turvy year of retailing, I will take a B+. The Stanford-educated Phi Beta Kappa in me is admittedly kind of pissed about the grade, but given that my average was taken down by a tawdry love drama not seen since a Friday evening with the Lifetime channel, I can still rest easy going into 2026.
More importantly, these predictions remind me why I love this industry. Retail is theater. It's strategy. It's execution. It's about understanding people, both customers and, let’s not forget, leaders and corporate cultures, too. Sometimes you get surprised (for example, who knew coffee would impact two of my predictions this year!), but more often than not, the fundamentals win out.
The retailers that focused on customer experience, operational excellence, and genuine innovation, e.g. Costco, Sprouts, Sam's Club, Wayfair, are continuing to thrive. The ones that lost their way strategically or culturally (yes, I’m looking squarely at you, Target), along with the ones in transition, like Starbucks, are showing that turnarounds are possible but that the road will also be long and difficult.
As we head into 2026, I'm watching to see if these trends accelerate. Will Target's new CEO make meaningful changes, or will it be more of the same? Can Macy's First 125 strategy actually scale? Will Wayfair's physical store expansion continue to exceed expectations? And more pressing: Which retailers will inspire my predictions for 2026?
Stay tuned. Because I don’t just think I think we're in for another interesting year. I know I know we are.
Limited-service restaurants faced a challenging landscape in 2025, with many price-sensitive consumers pulling back on dining out in favor of grocery prepared meals and brown-bag lunches. Traffic was harder to come by, and everyday demand softened across much of the category.
Even so, chains found creative ways to stand out. We dug into the data behind the busiest weeks of the year for quick-service and fast-casual restaurants to understand what actually moved traffic – and which strategies are most likely to help brands compete in what’s shaping up to be another value-conscious year.
Everyday value became table stakes across limited service in 2025, with $5 meals, bundles, and loyalty pricing no longer serving as clear differentiators. Yet unsurprisingly, freebies and truly memorable discounts still drew crowds.
The chains featured in the chart below all saw their highest weekly traffic peaks during promotions that felt distinctive, easy to understand, and clearly worth acting on. Some – like Dairy Queen’s Free Cone Day and Dave’s Hot Chicken’s Free Slider Day – involved no-purchase-necessary giveaways. Others relied on steep, attention-grabbing discounts, such as Whataburger’s Anniversary 75-cent burger and Pizza Hut’s $2 Tuesday promo, or culturally timed activations like Chipotle’s Stanley Cup–inspired hockey jersey BOGO.
For 2026, the takeaway is clear: Discounting still works, but the offers likely to truly motivate consumers are the ones that stand out from the everyday value they already expect.
Fortunately for restaurants, however, deep discounts and giveaways aren’t the only way to draw crowds - if they were, the economics wouldn’t be sustainable for long. In 2025, culture-driven moments came surprisingly close to matching the power of freebies, without the same margin trade-offs.
Take Krispy Kreme, for example. The chain’s annual National Donut Day promotion – including a no-purchase-necessary free donut and a $2 dozen with the purchase of 12 more – produced the chain’s largest single-day visit spike of the year (+219.7% versus an average day on June 6th, 2025) and helped push weekly visits to a yearly high.
But Krispy Kreme’s Back to Hogwarts collection which launched on August 18, 2025, generated a more sustained lift that nearly matched National Donut Day’s impact at the weekly level. While the campaign did include a free donut giveaway on Saturday, August 23rd for fans representing their favorite house, the data shows the surge wasn’t driven by the freebie alone: Traffic jumped 40.7% above an average Monday on launch day, compared with a 30.9% lift over an average Saturday on the day of the giveaway.
At McDonald’s and Burger King, too, pop-culture tie-ins dominated the promotional calendar. For both chains, the week of December 1st emerged as the busiest week of 2025, and also delivered the largest YoY weekly visit increase.
At Burger King, the lift came from the chain’s SpongeBob Movie Menu – starring the Krabby Whopper – launched on December 1st ahead of the film’s December 19th release. The promotion drove an 18.4% YoY traffic increase, with traffic – largely flat or down since September – remaining elevated in the weeks that followed.
At McDonald’s, momentum was fueled by a holiday-themed Grinched Menu, which arrived on the heels of the fast food leader’s highly successful Boo Bucket merchandise drop in October. The Boo Buckets drove McDonald’s second- and third-largest year-over-year visit spikes during the weeks of October 20 and 27, and the Grinch Meal built on that lift, pushing visits higher yet during the week of December 1st and sustaining momentum through the rest of the month.
The lesson here is twofold: Well-timed promotions tied to widely recognized cultural moments can still drive outsized traffic on their own, as Krispy Kreme and Burger King’s activations showed. But McDonald’s performance also underscores the value of sequencing – using one successful launch to carry momentum into the next.
Speaking of timing and sequencing, Starbucks’ viral Bearista offering, launched strategically just before the Brand’s iconic Red Cup Day, shows how well-timed promotions can compound impact.
Red Cup Day during the week of November 10th was Starbucks’ busiest day of 2025. But the week of Bearista (November 3rd) came awfully close – and delivered the brand’s largest YoY weekly visit increase of 2025. Just as importantly, the Bearista launch helped build visit momentum, setting the stage for what ultimately became Starbucks’ biggest Red Cup Day ever.
Consumers lining up to pay $30 for the Bearista also challenged another long-held assumption about QSR traffic in 2025: that offerings have to be cheap to deliver results. What makes this especially notable is that Bearista wasn’t tied to a movie release or external cultural IP. It was brand-first, premium-priced merchandise that still drove traffic at scale. And while not easily replicated, Starbucks’ Bearista success shows that scarcity, storytelling, and timing can unlock value beyond low-price promotions.
If you’ve gotten this far, you might be wondering: What about food? Don’t people still go to restaurants to eat – and aren’t craveable menu items supposed to drive traffic?
The answer is yes. Amid all the noise around discounts, collaborations, and merchandise, food still mattered in 2025. At Popeyes, the June 2nd launch of Chicken Wraps, priced accessibly at $3.99, drove the chain’s busiest week of the year. While wraps weren’t totally new to Popeyes’ menu, this rollout was framed as a value-forward, easy-to-understand innovation at a moment when affordability mattered – and consumers responded.
At Taco Bell and KFC, food-driven traffic spikes leaned more heavily on nostalgia. Taco Bell’s limited-time revival of Cheesy Street Chalupas and Quesaritos lifted visits roughly 8% above average, while KFC saw an even larger jump (11.4%) with the return of Potato Wedges and Hot & Spicy Wings. These weren’t experimental launches, but deliberate re-releases of proven favorites, giving diners something familiar and a reason to act quickly.
Together, these examples show that even in a crowded promotional landscape, menu remains a core traffic lever – and that clearly positioned items can rise above the noise without flashy add-ons.
The busiest weeks of 2025 show that even in a tough, value-conscious environment, limited-service restaurants still have multiple, proven ways to drive traffic. From clear deep discounts that rise above the noise to culture-led moments, narrative-driven merchandise, and well-timed menu strategies also delivered some of the year’s strongest results.
As QSRs and fast-casual chains look ahead to 2026, the data suggests that winning won’t hinge on any single tactic, but on choosing the right lever for the right moment, and executing it clearly enough to cut through a crowded landscape.
For more data-driven dining insights, follow Placer.a/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
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Indoor malls outperformed both open-air centers and outlet malls on a full-year basis as the only format to post visit gains during all four quarters – signaling a shift from recovery into growth.
Open-air shopping centers came in second – and though the format trailed indoor malls on a full-year basis, open-air shopping centers came out on top over the holidays, with Q4 visits up 2.0% year over year (YoY) and December traffic up 1.5%. This seasonal strength can be attributed to the format's sit-down and alcohol-forward dining options, which attract social holiday visits, as well as layouts that support quick trips and easy access to both essential and discretionary retail.
Meanwhile, outlet malls remained the weakest-performing format throughout 2025, with an annual traffic decline driven in part by a 1.1% drop in visits during the critical holiday season. This softness could reflect a broader shift in value perception. Price-conscious consumers may be increasingly weighing time cost alongside monetary savings, and long drives can offset the appeal of discounted pricing – particularly when promotions and loyalty incentives are widely available online and in traditional retail formats. To win consumers back, outlet malls may need to reduce the perceived time tradeoff by strengthening food and entertainment offerings and positioning themselves as curated, experience-driven value destinations rather than purely price-led ones.
Malls continue to resonate with a wide range of family segments, though different formats appeal to different household profiles. Across formats, higher-income and suburban family segments over-index among mall visitors. Indoor malls and open-air centers attract a disproportionate share of ultra-wealthy and affluent suburban households, underscoring malls’ ongoing relevance for consumers seeking family-friendly activities and experiences. Outlet malls, meanwhile, skew more heavily toward near-urban diverse families, reflecting their positioning as value-oriented destinations rather than lifestyle hubs.
At the same time, young professionals also play a meaningful role in mall traffic, over-indexing across all formats relative to their 5.8% share of the national population.
Across all formats, mall visitors also frequented mass merchants, big-box retailers, and off-price chains at high rates in 2025, underscoring that mall trips are often embedded within broader, multi-stop shopping routines rather than standing alone.
More than 70% of visitors across all mall formats also visited Walmart and Target at some point in 2025, and over half of mall visitors also visited Dollar Tree – underscoring how deeply mass merchants and discount chains are embedded in consumers’ retail lives. This indicates that malls face stiff competition as an everyday shopping destination. Malls that want to pull ahead in 2026 may focus on differentiating themselves from superstores by leaning into experiences and services that mass merchants cannot efficiently deliver – using tenant mix and programming to capture discretionary spend beyond routine retail needs.
Of the three formats, outlet malls showed the highest overlap with value-oriented and off-price chains, highlighting both their competitive pressure and their opportunity to redefine value. As discounted retail becomes increasingly ubiquitous, outlets can differentiate by extending value beyond merchandise—pairing sharp pricing with affordable dining, family-friendly entertainment, and experience-led programming that reinforces the outlet trip as a high-value day out, not just a bargain hunt.
Mall success in 2026 will likely hinge on maximizing the quality and purpose of each visit. Indoor malls are best positioned to double down on experiential retail, entertainment, and family-friendly programming that supports longer dwell times and higher discretionary spend. Open-air centers can continue to capitalize on convenience and dining-led visitation by optimizing for short, high-intent trips – particularly during peak seasonal periods.
For outlet malls, the opportunity lies in expanding the definition of value. As discounts become easier to access everywhere, outlets can differentiate by applying value thinking to food, entertainment, and experiences – turning the outlet trip into an affordable day out rather than a pure bargain hunt. Across all formats, operators and retailers that align tenant mix, layout, and programming with how consumers actually shop – across channels and formats – will be best positioned to capture wallet share in an increasingly fragmented retail landscape.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
1. Elevated visitor frequency could mean that gym-goers are getting more value out of their memberships and are therefore more likely to stay signed up. Between January and March 2025, all of the gym chains analyzed had a higher share of frequent visitors (those who visited about once a week) than in the equivalent month of 2024.
2. Fitness chains at all price tiers need to be strategic about the value they offer and the amenities that can engage budget-conscious consumers. Between Q1 2022 and Q1 2025, the captured trade area median HHI increased for all fitness subsegments – value-priced, mid-range, and high-end – suggesting that consumers swapped pricier gym memberships for more affordable options.
3. Close attention should be paid to how long visitors spend at fitness chains in order to reduce crowding and bottlenecks. Between Q1 2022 and Q1 2025, the average visit length increased at value-priced, mid-range, and high-end gyms. Floorplan and equipment improvements could be considered, as well as having trainers available to help gym-goers streamline workouts.
4. Gyms can use hourly visit data to better serve their members or use promotions to stabilize facility usage throughout the day. In Q1 2025, high-end chains received a larger share of morning visits while value-priced and mid-range fitness chains received larger shares of evening visits.
Like many industries in recent years, the fitness sector has experienced significant shifts in consumer behavior. From the rise in home workouts during the pandemic to the strain of hyper-inflation, foot traffic trends to gyms and health clubs have been as dynamic as the consumers they serve.
This report leverages location analytics to explore the consumer trends driving visitation in the fitness space and provides actionable insights for industry stakeholders.
The pandemic drove several shifts in the fitness space. Widespread gym closures led consumers to embrace home-based workouts, while demand for all things fitness increased due to an emphasis on overall health and wellness. This subsequently drove a renewed interest in gym-based workouts as restrictions lifted – even as some consumers remained committed to their home workout routines.
In Q1 2023, visits to fitness chains surpassed Q1 2019 levels for the first time since the onset of the pandemic, a sign that consumers had recommitted to out-of-home fitness. And in Q1 2024 and Q1 2025, fitness chains saw further growth, climbing to 12.8% and 15.5% above the Q1 2019 baseline, respectively.
Several factors have likely driven consumers’ return to gyms and health clubs, including the desire for both social connection and professional-grade facilities difficult to replicate at home. The steep increase in cost of living has likely also played a role, since consumers cutting back on discretionary spending can enjoy multiple outings and a range of recreational activities at the gym for one monthly fee.
Zooming in on weekly visits to the fitness space in Q1 2025 reveals the industry’s exceptional strength and resilience in the early part of the year.
The fitness industry experienced YoY visit growth nearly every week of Q1 2025 (and 2.4% YoY visit growth overall) with only minor visit gaps the weeks of January 20th, 2025 and February 17th, 2025 – likely due to extreme weather that prevented many Americans from hitting the gym.
And the fitness industry’s weekly visit growth appeared to strengthen throughout the quarter, defying the typical waning of New Year's resolutions. This could indicate that gym visits haven't plateaued and that consumers are demonstrating greater commitment to their fitness routines compared to last year.
Diving into visitation patterns for leading fitness chains highlights how increased visitor frequency drove foot traffic growth in Q1 2025.
Fitness chains tend to receive the most visits during the first months of the year as consumers recommit to health and wellness in their post-holidays New Year’s resolutions. And not only do more people hit the gym – analyzing the data reveals that gym-goers also typically work out more frequently during this period. Zooming in on 2025 so far suggests that consumers are especially committed to their fitness routines this year: Leading gyms saw an increase in the proportion of frequent visitors (4+ times a month) in Q1 2025 compared to the already significant percentage of frequent visitors in the first quarter of 2024.
Elevated visitor frequency could mean that gym-goers are getting more value out of their memberships than last year, and are therefore more likely to stay signed up throughout the year.
At the same time, the data also reveals that – contrary to what may be expected – a fitness chain’s share of frequent visitors appears to be independent of the cost of membership associated with the club: Life Time, a high-end club, and EōS Fitness, a value-priced gym, had the highest shares of frequent visitors between January 2024 and March 2025. This suggests that factors other than cost, such as location convenience, class offerings, community, or individual motivation, might be more influential in driving frequent gym attendance.
Segmenting the fitness industry by membership price tiers – value-priced, mid-range, and high-end – can reveal further insights on current consumer behavior around out-of-home fitness.
In Q1 2025, the captured market* median household income (HHI) was higher than the nationwide median HHI ($79.6K/year) across all price tiers – suggesting that even value-priced fitness chains are attracting a relatively affluent audience. This could indicate that gym memberships are somewhat of a luxury and that consumers from lower-income households gave up their gym memberships altogether as they tightened their purse strings.
Analyzing the historical data since Q1 2022 also reveals that the captured market median HHI has risen consistently over the past couple of years with the largest median HHI increase observed in the captured trade areas of high-end fitness chains. This suggests that middle-income households – that are more sensitive to the rising cost of living – likely swapped pricier gym memberships for more affordable options in recent years.
These metrics indicate that fitness chains at all price tiers need to think strategically about the value they offer and the amenities that can engage budget-conscious consumers who are carefully weighing every expenditure.
*Captured trade area is obtained by weighting the census block groups (CBGs) from which the chain draws its visitors according to their share of visits to the chain and thus reflects the population that visits the chain in practice.
Fitness clubs of all types need to manage their capacity to ensure health and safety standards and a positive experience for members. And understanding the average amount of time visitors spend at the gym can help fitness chains at every price point keep their finger on the pulse of their facilities.
Between Q1 2022 and Q1 2025, the average visit length increased at value-priced, mid-range, and high-end gyms. Value-priced gyms experienced the largest increase in average visit length – from 72.4 minutes in Q1 2022 to 74.0 minutes in Q1 2025 – perhaps due to their relatively lower-income visitors spending more time enjoying club amenities after cutting back on other forms of recreation. Meanwhile, mid-range and high-end gyms experienced relatively modest increases in average visit length, which were higher to begin with – likely due to their ample class and spa offerings and overall inviting, upscale spaces.
Elevated average visit length could mean that visitors are well-engaged and less likely to cancel their memberships. But as overall gym visits are on the rise, fitness chains may want to pay close attention to how long visitors spend at the facility. Floorplan and equipment improvements could be considered in order to reduce bottlenecks, and having trainers available to instruct on equipment usage and workout technique could help gym-goers streamline workouts.
Along with average visit length, understanding the daypart in which they receive the most visits is another way that fitness chains can improve efficiency and prevent overcrowding. And analysis of the hourly visits to fitness sub-segments revealed that some fitness segments receive more morning visits while others are more popular in the evenings.
In Q1 2025, high-end chains received a larger share of visits between 6 a.m. and 9 a.m. (19.7%) than value-priced and mid-range fitness chains (11.6% and 11.8%, respectively). Meanwhile, value-priced and mid-range fitness chains received larger shares of visits between 6 p.m. and 9 p.m. (21.9% and 22.2%) than high-end chains (16.5%).
Gyms can leverage this data to better serve members, for instance by scheduling more classes during peak hours. Value-priced and mid-range gyms, which saw a larger disparity between shares of morning and evening visits in Q1 2025, might also consider incentivizing off-peak usage through discounted morning memberships or early-bird snack bar deals.
The fitness space appears to be in good shape in 2025. Visits have made a full recovery from the pandemic era and still continue to grow, indicating strong consumer demand for out-of-home workouts. And using location intelligence to analyze the behavior and demographics of visitors to gyms at different price points can help identify opportunities for driving even greater success.
1. Idaho and South Carolina have emerged as significant domestic migration magnets over the past four years. Between January 2021 and 2025, both states gained over 3.0% of their populations through domestic migration. Other Mountain and Sun Belt states – including Nevada, Montana, and Florida – also drew significant inflow, while California, New York, and Illinois experienced the greatest outmigration.
2. Interstate migration cooled noticeably in 2024. During the 12-month period ending January 2025, California, New York and Illinois saw their outflows slow dramatically, while domestic migration hotspots like Georgia, Texas, and Florida saw inflows flatten to zero. A similar cooling trend emerged on a CBSA level.
3. Still, some states continued to see notable relocation activity over the past year. In 2024, Idaho, South Carolina, and North Dakota drew the most relocators relative to their populations. And among the nation’s ten largest states, North Carolina led with an inflow of 0.4%.
4. Phoenix remained a rare bright spot among the nation’s ten largest metro areas. The CBSA was the only major analyzed hub to maintain positive net domestic migration through 2024.
Over the past several years, the United States has experienced significant domestic migration shifts, driven by factors like remote work, housing affordability, and regional economic opportunities. As some areas reap the benefits of population inflows, others grapple with outflows tied to higher living costs and evolving workplace dynamics.
This report dives into the location analytics to explore where Americans have moved since 2021 – and how these patterns began to change in 2024.
Since 2021, Americans have flocked toward warmer climates, expansive natural scenery, and more affordable housing options – particularly in the Mountain and Sun Belt states.
Between January 2021 and January 2025, South Carolina led the nation in positive net domestic migration – drawing an influx of newcomers equivalent to 3.6% of its January 2025 population. (This metric is referred to as a state’s “net migrated percent of population.”) Next in line was Idaho with a 3.4% net migrated percent of population, followed by Nevada, (2.8%), Montana (2.8%), Florida (2.1%), South Dakota (2.1%), Wyoming (2.0%), North Carolina (2.0%), and Tennessee (1.9%). Texas saw positive net migration of just 0.9% during the same period. However, the Lone Star State’s large overall population means a substantial number of newcomers in absolute terms.
Meanwhile, California (-2.2%), New York (-2.1%), and Illinois (-1.9%) experienced the greatest outflows relative to their populations. This exodus was driven largely by soaring housing costs and the rise of remote work, which lowered barriers to moving out of high-priced areas.
Between January 2024 and January 2025, many of the same broad patterns persisted, but at a more moderate clip – suggesting a stabilization of domestic migration nationwide. This leveling off could reflect factors such as rising mortgage interest rates, which dampened home buying and selling, as well as the increased push for employees to return to the office.
Still, South Carolina (+0.6%) and Idaho (+0.6%) remained among the top inflow states. The two hotspots were joined – and slightly surpassed – by North Dakota (+0.8%), where even modest waves of newcomers make a big impact due to the state’s lower population base. A wealth of affordable housing and a strong job market have positioned North Dakota as a particularly attractive destination for U.S. relocators in recent years. And Microsoft and Amazon’s establishment of major presences around Fargo has strengthened the region’s economy.
Meanwhile, California (-0.3%), New York (-0.2%), and Illinois (-0.1%) continued to post negative net migration, but at a markedly slower rate than in prior years. And notably, several states that had been struggling with outflow, such as Michigan, Minnesota, Virginia, Ohio, and Oregon, began showing minor positive inflow during the same 12-month window. As home affordability erodes in pandemic-era hot spots like the Mountain states and Sun Belt, these areas may emerge as new destinations for Americans seeking lower costs of living.
Zooming in on the ten most populous U.S. states offers an even clearer picture of how domestic migration patterns have stabilized over the past year. The graph below shows a side-by-side comparison of domestic migration patterns during the 36-month period ending January 2024 and the 12-month period ending January 2025.
California, New York, and Illinois saw population outflows slow dramatically during the 12 months ending January 2025 – while domestic migration magnets such as Georgia, Texas, and Florida saw inflow flatten to zero. Meanwhile, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania flipped from slightly negative to slightly positive net migration – incremental upticks that could signal a possible turnaround.
The only “Big Ten” pandemic-era migration magnet to maintain strong inflow in 2024 was North Carolina – which saw a 0.4% influx in 2024 as a result of interstate moves.
A closer look at the top four states receiving outmigration from California and New York (October 2020 to October 2024) reveals that residents leaving both states tended to settle in nearby areas or in Florida.
Among those leaving New York, 37.4% ended up in neighboring states – 21.1% moved to New Jersey, 9.2% to Pennsylvania, and 7.1% to Connecticut. But an astonishing 28.8% decamped all the way to the Sunshine State, trading the Northeast’s colder climate for Florida sunshine.
Similarly, 20.1% of California leavers chose to stay nearby, moving to Nevada (11.5%) or Arizona (8.6%). Another 19.1% moved to Texas, and 8.0% moved to Florida, making it the fourth-largest destination for Californians.
Zooming in on CBSA-level data – focusing on the nation’s ten largest metropolitan areas, all with over five million people – reveals a similar picture of slowing domestic migration over the last year.
Los Angeles, New York, Chicago, and Washington, D.C. – four cities that experienced notable population outflows between January 2021 and January 2024 – saw those outflows flatten considerably. For these metros, this leveling-off may serve as a promising sign that the waves of departures seen in recent years may have begun to subside. Conversely, Houston and Dallas, which both welcomed positive net migration between January 2021 and January 2024, registered zero-net domestic migration in 2024. Atlanta, for its part, remained flat in both of the analyzed periods.
In Miami, however, outmigration persisted at a substantial rate. Despite Florida’s overall status as a domestic migration magnet, Miami lost 2.6% of its population to domestic net migration between January 2020 and January 2024 – and another 1.0% between January 2024 and January 2025. As one of Florida’s most expensive housing markets, Miami may be losing some residents to other parts of the state or elsewhere in the region. Meanwhile, Philadelphia, which lost 0.3% of its population to net domestic migration between January 2021 and January 2024, continued losing residents at a slightly faster pace in 2024 – another 0.3% just last year.
Of the ten biggest CBSAs nationwide, only Phoenix continued to see a net domestic migration gain through 2024 (+0.2%). This highlights the CBSA’s continued draw as a (relative) relocation hotspot even in 2024’s cooling market.
Who are the domestic relocators heading to Phoenix?
From October 2020 to October 2024, the top five metro areas sending residents to the Phoenix CBSA each registered median household incomes (HHIs) of $73K to $98K – surpassing Phoenix’s own median of $72K. This suggests that many of those moving in are arriving from wealthier, often more expensive metro areas – for whom even Phoenix’s high-priced market may offer more affordable living.
Overall, domestic migration patterns appear to have cooled in 2024, reflecting economic and societal trends that have slowed the rush from pricey coastal hubs to more affordable regions. Yet states like South Carolina, Idaho, and North Dakota – as well as metro areas like Phoenix – continue to attract new arrivals, paving the way for evolving regional demographics in the years to come.
In today’s retail landscape, consumer behavior is influenced by a multitude of factors, directly impacting the success of products and brands. This report explores the latest trends in value perception, shopping behavior, and media consumption that impact which brands consumers are most likely to engage with – and how.
In the apparel space, consumers continue to prioritize value and unique merchandise.
Analysis of visits to various apparel categories reveals a steady increase in the share of visits going to off-price retailers and thrift stores at the expense of traditional apparel chains.
And the popularity of off-price chains and thrift stores appears to be widespread across multiple audience segments. Analyzing trade area data with the Experian: Mosaic psychographic dataset reveals a clear preference for second-hand retailers among both younger (ages 25-30) and older (51+) consumer segments. Meanwhile, middle-class parents aged 36-45 with teenagers – the “Family Union” segment – are significantly more likely to shop at off-price apparel stores, highlighting their emphasis on buying new, while saving both time and money.
This suggests that the powerful blend of treasure-hunting and deep value, central to both the off-price and thrift experiences, is driving traffic from a variety of audiences, and that other industries could benefit from combining affordability with the allure of unique products.
Diving deeper into the location intelligence for the apparel space further highlights thrift and off-price’s broad appeal – and that a combination of quality and price motivates consumers to visit different retailers.
Between 2019 and 2024, the share of Bloomingdale’s, Saks Fifth Avenue, Neiman Marcus, and Nordstrom visitors that also visited a Goodwill or Ross Dress for Less increased significantly.
And while this could mean that the current economic climate is causing some higher-income consumers to trade down to lower-priced retailers, it could also be that consumers are prioritizing sustainability and seeking value in terms of “bang for their buck” – shopping a combination of retailers depending on the cost versus quality considerations for each purchase.
Consumers increasingly expect to shop on their own terms, opting for a more flexible shopping experience that blurs the lines between traditional retail channels and categories.
Superstores and warehouse stores, for example, often evoke the image of navigating aisle after aisle of nearly every product imaginable – a time-consuming endeavor given the sheer size of their stores. But the latest location intelligence shows that more consumers are turning to these retailers for super-quick shopping trips.
Between 2019 and 2024, the share of visits lasting less than ten minutes at Target, Walmart, BJ’s Wholesale Club, Sam’s Club, and to a lesser extent Costco, rose steadily – perhaps due to increased use of flexible BOPIS (buy online, pick-up in-store) and curbside pick-up options. These stores may also be seeing a rise in consumers popping in to grab just a few items as-needed or to cherry-pick particular deals to complement their larger online shopping orders.
This trend highlights the demand for frictionless store experiences that allow visitors to conveniently shop or pick up orders even at large physical retailers.
And the breaking down of traditional retail silos isn’t limited to big-box chains. Diving into the data for quick service restaurants (QSR), fast casual chains, and grocery stores indicates that more consumers are also looking for new ways to grab a convenient bite.
Since 2019, grocery stores have been claiming an increasingly large share of the midday short visit pie – i.e. visits between 11:00 AM 3:00 PM lasting less than ten minutes – at the expense of QSR chains. This suggests that consumers seeking quick and affordable lunches are increasingly turning to grocery stores to pick up a few items or take advantage of self-service food bars. Notably, the rise in supermarket lunching hasn’t come at the expense of fast-casual restaurants, which have also upped their quick-service games – and have seen a small increase in their share of the quick lunchtime crowd over the past five years.
While some of QSR’s relative decline in short lunchtime visits could be due to discontent with rising fast-food prices, it’s clear that an increasing share of consumers see grocery and fast-casual chains as viable options during the lunch rush.
In 2025, tapping into hot trends and creating viral moments are among the most powerful tools for amplifying promotions and driving foot traffic to physical stores.
Retailers across categories have successfully harnessed the power of pop culture collaborations to generate excitement – and visits – by leaning into trending themes. On October 8th, 2024, for example, Wendy’s launched its epic Krabby Patty Collab, inspired by the beloved SpongeBob franchise. And during the week of the offering, the chain experienced a remarkable 21.5% increase in foot traffic compared to an average week that year.
Similarly, Crumbl – adept at creating buzz through manufactured scarcity – sparked a frenzy with the debut of its exclusive Olivia Rodrigo GUTS cookie. Initially available only at select locations near the artist’s concert venues, the cookie was launched nationwide for a limited time from August 19th to 24th, 2024. This buzz-driven release resulted in a 27.7% traffic surge during the week of the launch, as fans rushed to get a taste of the star-studded treat.
And it’s not just dining chains benefiting from these pop-culture moments. On February 16th, 2025, Bath & Body Works launched a Disney Princess-inspired fragrance line, perfect for fans of Cinderella, Ariel, Belle, Jasmine, Moana, and Tiana. The collaboration resonated, fueling a 23.2% visit spike for the chain.
While tapping into existing pop-culture trends has the ability to drive traffic, so does creating a new one. Analysis of movie theater visits on National Popcorn Day (Sunday, January 19th, 2025) shows how initiating a trend can spur social media engagement and impact in-person traffic to physical retail spaces.
National Popcorn Day was a successful promotional holiday across the movie theater industry in 2025. Both Regal Cinemas and AMC Theatres offered popcorn-based promotions on the day, but Cinemark’s “Bring Your Own Bucket” campaign, in particular, appears to have spurred a significant foot traffic boost during the event.
Visits to Cinemark on National Popcorn Day in 2025 increased 57.5% relative to the Sunday visit average for January and February 2025, as movie-goers showed off their out-of-the-bucket popcorn receptacles on social media. Clearly, by starting a trend that invited creativity and expression, Cinemark was able to amplify the impact of its National Popcorn Day promotion.
Location intelligence illuminates some of the key trends shaping consumer behavior in 2025. The data reveals that value-driven shopping, demand for flexibility across touchpoints, and the power of unique retail moments have the power to drive consumer engagement and the success of retail categories, brands, and products.
