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The first half of 2024 is proving to be more heavily visited for all types of shopping centers. June in particular is stronger than it was last year. After some January doldrums, where all shopping traffic was lower than the prior year due to weather, February began to pick up and March was particularly strong comparatively for outlet malls compared to last year. April saw a general downtick for more discretionary shopping, but May and June are looking strong so far.
The top 5 outlet malls by traffic during the last week of June were Arundel Mills, Ontario Mills, Sawgrass Mills, Legends Outlets Kansas City, and The Outlets at Orange. Among indoor malls, shoppers flocked to Mall of America, Roosevelt Field, Westfield Valley Fair, Del Amo Fashion Center, and Westfield Southcenter. Weather is always a consideration in the summer months, but as shopping centers have become increasingly sophisticated about strategically placed shade or places to take a break, it can be quite refreshing to visit an open-air lifestyle center. Tops in the nation for traffic include Ala Moana Center, Pier Park, Easton Town Center, Irvine Spectrum Center, and Victoria Gardens. As for high street retail corridors, no one can match the Big Apple. Three of the top five high streets were here, including Times Square and 42nd St at #1, SoHo at #3, and 5th Ave at #4. In second place was Michigan Ave in Chicago and in fifth place was Beverly Hills.
Against the backdrop of what remains a challenging time for full-service restaurants (FSRs), we dove into the data to check in with three of America’s leading FSR chains – First Watch, Texas Roadhouse, and Applebee’s. How did they fare in Q2 2024? And what lies in store for them in the months ahead?
First Watch has emerged as a rising star in recent years, rapidly expanding its footprint while at the same time taking pains to preserve the feel of a small, local eatery. The restaurant is nimble on its feet – growing its audience through a strategy centered on continual menu innovation and special seasonal offerings.
In the past year alone, First Watch added dozens of new locations to its fleet. And foot traffic data shows that the chain’s aggressive growth strategy is meeting robust demand. In Q2 2024, YoY visits to First Watch grew by 16.0%, far outperforming FSR and diner & breakfast chain averages. And perhaps more importantly, the average number of visits to each individual First Watch restaurant rose 5.8% over the same period.
Texas Roadhouse is another chain that has been crushing it in 2024 – and not just on Father’s Day. Over the past year, the popular steakhouse opened some 30 new U.S. locations, and plans to continue expanding this year.
And foot traffic data shows that Texas Roadhouse’s high-quality, affordable offerings are resonating with consumers. Despite inflation-driven price hikes, YoY visits to the chain have continued to grow. And though some of this increase is due to the restaurant’s expansion, the average number of visits per location has also been on the rise: Between January and June 2024, Texas Roadhouse experienced near-consistent YoY visit and visit-per-location growth. Only in January and in April did visits per location falter, likely due to January’s inclement weather and an April Easter calendar shift.
On a quarterly basis, too, foot traffic to Texas Roadhouse increased 6.2% in Q2 2024 – significantly outpacing averages for both steakhouses (2.6%) and full-service restaurants (1.2%).
Like many full-service restaurants, Dine Brands’ Applebee’s has faced its share of headwinds in recent years. Over the past 12 months, Applebee’s shuttered at least 30 locations, contributing to a drop in the chain’s overall foot traffic. But analyzing changes in the average number of visits to each Applebee’s restaurant shows that the closures may actually be helping to put Applebee’s back on a firmer footing.
In Q2 2023, visits to Applebee’s nationwide declined 3.7% YoY, while the average number of visits per location dropped 2.7%. Since then, the chain’s YoY visit gap has narrowed – while the average number of visits per location has begun to increase. And in Q2 2024, Applebee’s closed its overall YoY visit gap and grew its visits per location by 2.3%. Though the chain has yet to return to positive unit growth, the rightsizing of its fleet appears to be bolstering Applebee’s remaining stores – positioning it for long-term success.
Full-service restaurants have had a tough time in recent years, and concerns that consumer spending may moderate as the year wears on continue to weigh on the industry. Still, foot traffic data suggests that consumers are once again visiting restaurants – fueling expansion for First Watch and Texas Roadhouse, and helping shore up Applebee’s long-term prospects.
What does the rest of 2024 have in store for restaurant chains?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven restaurant analyses to find out.
Albertsons Companies, Inc. is one of the country’s largest grocery holding companies. The company operates various well-known grocery banners, including Albertsons, Safeway, Jewel-Osco, and Shaw's Supermarket.
We examined the visit performance of some of the brand’s major banners to see how they are faring as the second half of the year gets underway.
Albertsons Companies, Inc. operates over 2,200 stores across 36 states, and Safeway, with 918 stores, is the company’s largest banner by far. Unsurprisingly, Safeway also pulls in the greatest share of visits, accounting for 44.5% of foot traffic to Albertsons brands between January and June 2024. Albertsons and Jewel-Osco banners, with 379 and 188 stores, respectively, accounted for 17.9% and 10.7% of all visits to the company’s portfolio in H1 2024. The remaining 27.6% of visits went to smaller brands, including VONS (8.5%), ACME Markets (5.7%), and Shaw’s Supermarket (4.7%).
A look at recent visits to some of Albertsons' major banners shows that the brand has fared well in a period noted for value grocery dominance. Though Albertsons brands fall squarely into the traditional grocery store category, its banners experienced near-consistent YoY visit growth in H1 2024, with June 2024 visits between 5.7% and 11.7% higher than they were in June 2023.
Recognizing the increased focus among grocery shoppers on value, Albertsons has been enhancing its loyalty program, initially launched in 2021 and revamped in April 2024. The new "Albertsons for U" program unified its points currency while adding new perks, including discounts on groceries and gas for enrolled members. And the program seems to be spurring shoppers to do their weekly shopping at the company’s various banners.
The percentage of visits to Albertsons banners made by customers visiting a chain at least four times in a month increased each year analyzed. For example, in June 2022, 54.8% of Safeway visits came from shoppers who visited the chain at least four times during the month; by June 2024, that number increased to 56.3%. Similarly, the share of visits to Jewel-Osco from weekly shoppers increased from 54.8% to 57.1% over the same period. These patterns repeated at Shaw's Supermarket, ACME Markets, United Supermarkets, VONS, and Tom Thumb.
The rise in loyalty rates across all banners indicates that Albertsons’ focus on enhancing customer experience and engagement has paid off. As the chain continues to lay the groundwork for its planned merger with Kroger, its increasingly loyal customer base will remain a powerful asset.
Albertsons remains one of the most dominant grocery holding companies in the country, and its banners have maintained strong yearly growth, both in terms of visits and loyalty.
Will visits to Albertsons brands continue to grow into the second half of the year?
Visit Placer.ai to keep on top of the latest grocery insights.
Professional sports rank among the most profitable industries for sponsorships and brand partnerships. These partnerships, such as Nike's collaboration with the NFL or Coca-Cola's long-standing relationship with the Olympics, offer immense value through enhanced brand visibility and increased consumer engagement.
Today, we took a look at two sports partnership agreements – one between DICK’s Sporting Goods and the Boston Celtics and Red Sox, and another between BIGGBY COFFEE and the Detroit Tigers – to explore the impact of these deals.
DICK’s Sporting Goods recently announced a major partnership with Boston’s beloved Celtics (NBA) and Red Sox (MLB) teams. The partnership was announced shortly after the grand opening of Boston’s new DICK’s House of Sport venue at 760 Boylston Street – which was attended by Red Sox and Celtics legends like David Ortiz and Larry Bird. In addition to signage and logo placement at TD Garden and Fenway Park, the deal grants DICK’s IP rights to be used locally, both in the House of Sport and online.
A look at cross-visitation patterns between DICK’s Sporting Goods and TD Garden and Fenway Park shows that this partnership is likely to be beneficial to both sides. The share of stadium visitors that also visited DICK’s Sporting Goods (nationwide) rose in May and June 2024, outpacing last year’s levels. And a respective 35.4% and 23.9% of visitors to DICK’s new local House of Sport in May and June 2024 also visited Fenway Park and TD Garden – more than the share that visited other major Boston landmarks like Faneuil Hall.
Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan, which hosts the Detroit Tigers baseball team, launched a partnership with Michigan-based BIGGBY COFFEE in 2023.
Since the partnership began, there has been a noticeable rise in visits to local BIGGBY COFFEE locations. During the 2023 baseball season, visits per location to BIGGBY COFFEE in the Detroit area were 6.3% higher than during the 2022 season – while nationwide visits per location to the chain dropped slightly compared to the previous year, with 0.3% fewer visits than in 2022%.
Similarly, the share of Comerica Park visitors frequenting a BIGGY COFFEE location at least once during the baseball season increased after the sponsorship deal. In 2022, 21.7% of visitors to Comerica Park also visited a BIGGBY; by 2023, this share increased to 25.8%.
The marriage of sports and sponsorships is a long-standing one – and harnessing location analytics can help sports leagues and teams find partnerships that resonate with sports fans.
For more data-driven marketing insights, visit Placer.ai.
We’ve discussed the meteoric rise of warehouse clubs, particularly in relation to their mass merchant counterparts so far in 2024. Clubs continue to provide all three components of what makes retail successful today; unique products, value and a positive in-store experience. And as we previously highlighted, each club has its unique value proposition that drives engagement with its members.
A few weeks ago, at the Bank of America London Investor Conference, Walmart CFO John David Rainey, spoke about the growth of Sam’s Club and the relationship between that growth and Millennials and Gen Z cohorts. He mentioned that those two groups represent the highest level of growth to the Sam’s Club business, and logically, against the backdrop of changes across the retail industry, this makes sense. As this group ages into the family formation life stage, their retail needs change, and coupled with migration patterns since the pandemic, most likely more space means more bulk.
Using Placer’s foot traffic estimates and Experian Mosaic lifestyle cohorts, we compared the first six months of 2019 to the first six months of this year to determine if this trend also was reflected in consumer visits. Costco showed a 50-basis-point increase in visits from trade areas with a higher percentage of Singles and Starters and Promising Families, both groups that align with Millennial and Gen Z life stages. Those cohorts also represented the highest levels of change over the five years of any group of Costco trade area constituents.
Sam’s Club tells a similar story, if not one that is even more compelling. Singles & Starters, as of 2024, represented the highest percentage of visitors, and increased 80 basis points from 2019. Promising Families also increased by 20 basis points over the same period, while many segments of more mature consumers declined in percentage over the five year period. Both Sam’s Club and Costco have grown visits so far in 2024, and it’s likely that the growth is being fueled by younger shoppers.
Migration from urban environments to more suburban and rural areas as well as aging into larger spaces both could play a role in the growth in popularity of warehouse clubs by younger consumers. This sector of retail relies on, and greatly benefits from loyalty, and getting buy-in from elusive younger consumers can provide some more long-term stability for Sam’s Club and Costco. With Costco’s announcement this week that it will be raising prices on memberships for the first time since 2017, focusing on those newer, younger members with higher earning potential may help to alleviate some of the pressure. Younger visitors may be enticed by the food court, stocking up on essentials or impulsive items, and warehouse clubs are welcoming this next wave of consumers through their doors.
Food retail’s “Battle Royale” officially moved on to its next round with the introduction of McDonald’s $5 Meal Deal on June 25. We’ve previously discussed how value-oriented grocers have disrupted McDonald’s and the broader QSR category and how casual dining chains shot the first shots in this summer’s value wars with extreme value offerings, but given McDonald’s reach, we wanted to take a closer look at this promotion and its ripple effect across the food retail landscape.
The Placer Blog looked at the impact of several recent limited time offers across the restaurant industry this week, but we thought we’d specifically look at McDonald’s and its direct competitors. After slower year-over-year visitation trends during April and the first half of May, we saw much stronger trends across the QSR category in June, especially those with bundled meal promotions like Jack in the Box, Wendy’s, Arby’s, and Burger King. McDonald’s visits actually declined year-over-year during the first week of the $5 Meal Deal promotion, but that was more of a function of lapping last year’s viral Grimace Shake promotion (the strength of the year-over-two-year visit trends below also supports this). Last week’s visitation trends accelerated on both a one- and two-year basis, reinforcing how important value is for driving visits for QSR consumers.
While consumers have responded positively to McDonald’s and other QSR chains’ bundled value promotions, we’ve yet to see a material impact on grocery visits over the same time period (both value and conventional grocers continue to see positive year-over-year growth). To us, there are probably a few reasons for this: (1) grocery stores have also been promotional over the corresponding period, something we’ve called out a few times the past few months; (2) consumers are still shopping a wider number of total food retail locations as they seek out deals and have incorporated QSR bundled value meals into their current shopping behavior; and (3) distortion in year-over-year numbers due to last week’s 4th of July holiday (which saw strong year-over-year visit trends).
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1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery formats grew year-over-year in Q2 2025, with traditional grocers posting their first rebound since early 2024.
2) Value grocers slow: After leading during the 2022–24 trade-down wave, value grocer growth has decelerated as that shift matures.
3) Fresh formats surge: Now the fastest-growing segment, fueled by affluent shoppers seeking health, wellness, and convenience.
4) Bifurcation widens: Growth concentrated at both the low-income (value) and high-income (fresh) ends, highlighting polarized spending.
5) Shopping missions diverge: Short trips are rising, supporting fresh formats, while traditional grocers retain loyal stock-up customers and value chains capture fill-in trips through private labels.
6) Traditional grocers adapt: H-E-B and Harris Teeter outperformed by tailoring strategies to their core geographies and demographics.Bifurcation of Consumer Spending Help Fresh Format Lead Grocery Growth
Grocery traffic across all four major categories – value grocers, fresh format, traditional grocery, ethnic grocers – was up year over year in Q2 2025 as shoppers continue to engage with a wide range of grocery formats. Traditional grocery posted its first YoY traffic increase since Q1 2024, while ethnic grocers maintained their steady pattern of modest but consistent gains.
Value grocers, which dominated growth through most of 2024 as shoppers prioritized affordability, continued to expand but have now ceded leadership to fresh-format grocers. Rising food costs between 2022 and 2024 drove many consumers to chains like Aldi and Lidl, but much of this “trade-down” movement has already occurred. Although price sensitivity still shapes consumer choices – keeping the value segment on an upward trajectory – its growth momentum has slowed, making it less of a driver for the overall sector.
Fresh-format grocers have now taken the lead, posting the strongest YoY traffic gains of any category in 2025. This segment, anchored by players like Sprouts, appeals to the highest-income households of the four categories, signaling a growing influence of affluent shoppers on the competitive grocery landscape. Despite accounting for just 7.0% of total grocery visits in H1 2025, the segment’s rapid gains point to a broader shift: premium brands emphasizing health and wellness are emerging as the primary engine of growth in the grocery sector.
The fact that value grocers and fresh-format grocers – segments with the lowest and highest median household incomes among their customer bases – are the two categories driving the most growth underscores how the bifurcation of consumer spending is playing out in the grocery space as well. On one end, price-sensitive shoppers continue to seek out affordable options, while on the other, affluent consumers are fueling demand for premium, health-oriented formats. This dual-track growth pattern highlights how widening economic divides are reshaping competitive dynamics in grocery retail.
1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery categories posted YoY traffic gains in Q2 2025.
2) Traditional grocery rebound: First YoY increase since Q1 2024.
3) Ethnic grocers: Continued steady but modest upward trend.
4) Value grocers: Still growing, but slowing after most trade-down activity already occurred (2022–24).
5) Fresh formats: Now the fastest-growing segment, driven by affluent shoppers and interest in health & wellness.
6) Market shift: Premium, health-oriented brands are becoming the new growth driver in grocery.
7) Bifurcation of spending: Growth at both value and fresh-format grocers highlights a polarization in consumer spending patterns that is reshaping grocery competition.
Over the past two years, short grocery trips (under 10 minutes) have grown far more quickly than longer visits. While they still make up less than one-quarter of all U.S. grocery trips, their steady expansion suggests this behavioral shift is here to stay and that its full impact on the industry has yet to be realized.
One format particularly aligned with this trend is the fresh-format grocer, where average dwell times are shorter than in other categories. Yet despite benefiting from the rise of convenience-driven shopping, fresh formats attract the smallest share of loyal visitors (4+ times per month). This indicates they are rarely used for a primary weekly shop. Instead, they capture supplemental trips from consumers looking for specific needs – unique items, high-quality produce, or a prepared meal – who also value the ability to get in and out quickly.
In contrast, leading traditional grocers like H-E-B and Kroger thrive on a classic supermarket model built around frequent, comprehensive shopping trips. With the highest share of loyal visitors (38.5% and 27.6% respectively), they command a reliable customer base coming for full grocery runs and taking time to fill their carts.
Value grocers follow a different, but equally effective playbook. Positioned as primary “fill-in” stores, they sit between traditional and fresh formats in both dwell time and visit frequency. Many rely on limited assortments and a heavy emphasis on private-label goods, encouraging shoppers to build larger baskets around basics and store brands. Still, the data suggests consumers reserve their main grocery hauls for traditional supermarkets with broader selections, while using value grocers to stretch budgets and stock up on essentials.
1) Short trips surge: Under-10-minute visits have grown fastest, signaling a lasting behavioral shift.
2) Fresh formats thrive on convenience: Small footprints, prepared foods, and specialty items align with quick missions.
3) Traditional grocers retain loyalty: Traditional grocers such as H-E-B and Kroger attract frequent, comprehensive stock-up trips.
4) Value grocers fill the middle ground: Limited assortments and private label drive larger baskets, but main hauls remain with traditional supermarkets.
5) Fresh formats as supplements: Fresh format grocers such as The Fresh Market capture quick, specialized trips rather than weekly shops.
While broad market trends favor value and fresh-format grocers, certain traditional grocers are proving that a tailored strategy is a powerful tool for success. In the first half of 2025, H-E-B and Harris Teeter significantly outperformed their category's modest 0.6% average year-over-year visit growth, posting impressive gains of 5.6% and 2.8%, respectively. Their success demonstrates that even in a polarizing environment, there is ample room for traditional formats to thrive by deeply understanding and catering to a specific target audience.
These two brands achieve their success with distinctly different, yet equally focused, demographic strategies. H-E-B, a Texas powerhouse, leans heavily into major metropolitan areas like Austin and San Antonio. This urban focus is clear, with 32.6% of its visitors coming from urban centers and their peripheries, far above the category average. Conversely, Harris Teeter has cultivated a strong following in suburban and satellite cities in the South Atlantic region, drawing a massive 78.3% of its traffic from these areas. This deliberate targeting shows that knowing your customer's geography and lifestyle remains a winning formula for growth.
1) Traditional grocers can still be competitive: H-E-B (+5.6% YoY) and Harris Teeter (+2.8% YoY) outpaced the category average of +0.6% in H1 2025.
2) H-E-B’s strategy: Strong urban focus, with 32.6% of traffic from major metro areas like Austin and San Antonio.
3) Harris Teeter’s strategy: Suburban and satellite city focus, with 78.3% of traffic from South Atlantic suburbs.
1. The hypergrowth of Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General between 2019 and 2025 has fundamentally changed the brick-and-mortar retail landscape.
2. Overall visits to Target and Walmart have remained essentially stable even as traffic to the new retail giants skyrocketed – so the increased competition is not necessarily coming at legacy giants' expense. Instead, each retail giant is filling a different need, and success now requires excelling at specific shopping missions rather than broad market dominance.
3. Cross-shopping has become the new normal, with Walmart and Target maintaining their popularity even as their relative visit shares decline, creating opportunities for complementary rather than purely competitive strategies.
4. Dollar stores are rapidly graduating from "fill-in" destinations to primary shopping locations, signaling a fundamental shift in how Americans approach everyday retail.
5. Walmart still enjoys the highest visit frequency, but the other four chains – and especially Dollar General – are gaining ground in this realm.
6. Geographic and demographic specialization is becoming the key differentiator, as each chain carves out distinct niches rather than competing head-to-head across all markets and customer segments.
Evolving shopper priorities, economic pressures, and new competitors are reshaping how and where Americans buy everyday goods. And as value-focused players gain ground, legacy retail powerhouses are adapting their strategies in a bid to maintain their visit share. In this new consumer reality, shoppers no longer stick to one lane, creating a complex ecosystem where loyalty, geography, and cross-visitation patterns – not just market share – define who is truly winning.
This report explores the latest retail traffic data for Walmart, Target, Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General to decode what consumers want from retail giants in 2025. By analyzing visit patterns, loyalty trends, and cross-shopping shifts, we reveal how fast-growing chains are winning over consumers and uncover the strategies helping legacy players stay competitive in today's value-driven retail landscape.
In 2019, Walmart and Target were the two major behemoths in the brick-and-mortar retail space. And while traffic to these chains remains close to 2019 levels, overall visits to Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco have increased 36.6% to 45.9% in the past six years. Much of the growth was driven by aggressive store expansions, but average visits per location stayed constant (in the case of Dollar Tree) or grew as well (in the case of Dollar General and Costco). This means that these chains are successfully filling new stores with visitors – consumers who in the past may have gone to Walmart or Target for at least some of the items now purchased at wholesale clubs and dollar stores.
This substantial increase in visits to Costco, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree has altered the competitive landscape in which Walmart and Target operate. In 2019, 55.9% of combined visits to the five retailers went to Walmart. Now, Walmart’s relative visit share is less than 50%. Target received the second-highest share of visits to the five retailers in 2019, with 15.9% of combined traffic to the chains. But Between January and July 2025, Dollar General received more visits than Target – even though the discount store had received just 12.1% of combined visits in 2019.
Some of the growth of the new retail giants could be attributed to well-timed expansion. But the success of these chains is also due to the extreme value orientation of U.S. consumers in recent years. Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco each offer a unique value proposition, giving today's increasingly budget-conscious shoppers more options.
Walmart’s strategy of "everyday low prices" and its strongholds in rural and semi-rural areas reflect its emphasis on serving broad, value-focused households – often catering to essential, non-discretionary shopping.
Dollar General serves an even larger share of rural and semi-rural shoppers than Walmart, following its strategy of bringing a curated selection of everyday basics to underserved communities. The retailer's packaging is typically smaller than Walmart's, which allows Dollar General to price each item very affordably – and its geographic concentration in rural and semi-rural areas also highlights its direct competition to Walmart.
By contrast, Target and Costco both compete for consumer attention in suburban and small city settings, where shopper profiles tilt more toward families seeking one-stop-shopping and broader discretionary offerings. But Costco's audience skews slightly more affluent – the retailer attracts consumers who can afford the membership fees and bulk purchasing requirements – and its visit growth may be partially driven by higher income Target shoppers now shopping at Costco.
Dollar Tree, meanwhile, showcases a uniquely balanced real estate strategy. The chain's primary strength lies in suburban and small cities but it maintains a solid footing in both rural and urban areas. The chain also offers a unique value proposition, with a smaller store format and a fixed $1.25 price point on most items. So while the retailer isn't consistently cheaper than Walmart or Dollar General across all products, its convenience and predictability are helping it cement its role as a go-to chain for quick shopping trips or small quantities of discretionary items. And its versatile, three-pronged geographic footprint allows it to compete across diverse markets: Dollar Tree can serve as a convenient, quick-trip alternative to big-box retailers in the suburbs while also providing essential value in both rural and dense urban communities.
As each chain carves out distinct geographic and demographic niches, success increasingly depends on being the best option for particular shopping missions (bulk buying, quick trips, essential needs) rather than trying to be everything to everyone.
Still, despite – or perhaps due to – the increased competition, shoppers are increasingly spreading their visits across multiple retailers: Cross-shopping between major chains rose significantly between 2019 and 2025. And Walmart remains the most popular brick-and-mortar retailer, consistently ranking as the most popular cross-shopping destination for visitors of every other chain, followed by Target.
This creates an interesting paradox when viewed alongside the overall visit share shift. Even as Walmart and Target's total share of visits has declined, their importance as a secondary stop has actually grown. This suggests that the legacy retail giants' dip in market share isn't due to shoppers abandoning them. Instead, consumers are expanding their shopping routines by visiting other growing chains in addition to their regular trips to Walmart and Target, effectively diluting the giants' share of a larger, more fragmented retail landscape.
Cross-visitation to Costco from Walmart, Target, and Dollar Tree also grew between 2019 and 2025, suggesting that Costco is attracting a more varied audience to its stores.
But the most significant jumps in cross-visitation went to Dollar Tree and Dollar General, with cross-visitation to these chains from Target, Walmart, and Costco doubling or tripling over the past six years. This suggests that these brands are rapidly graduating from “fill-in” fare to primary shopping destinations for millions of households.
The dramatic rise in cross-visitation to dollar stores signals an opportunity for all retailers to identify and capitalize on specific shopping missions while building complementary partnerships rather than viewing every chain as direct competition.
Walmart’s status as the go-to destination for essential, non-discretionary spending is clearly reflected in its exceptional loyalty rates – nearly half its visitors return at least three times per month on average -between January to July 2025, a figure virtually unchanged since 2019. This steady high-frequency visitation underscores how necessity-driven shopping anchors customer routines and keeps Walmart atop the retail loyalty ranks.
But the data also reveals that other retail giants – and Dollar General in particular – are steadily gaining ground. Dollar General's increased visit frequency is largely fueled by its strategic emphasis on adding fresh produce and other grocery items, making it a viable everyday stop for more households and positioning it to compete more directly with Walmart.
Target also demonstrates a notable uptick in loyal visitors, with its share of frequent shoppers visiting at least three times a month rising from 20.1% to 23.6% between 2019 and 2025. This growth may suggest that its strategic initiatives – like the popular Drive Up service, same-day delivery options, and an appealing mix of essentials and exclusive brands – are successfully converting some casual shoppers into repeat customers.
Costco stands out for a different reason: while overall visits increased, loyalty rates remained essentially unchanged. This speaks to Costco’s unique position as a membership-based outlet for targeted bulk and premium-value purchases, where the shopping behavior of new visitors tends to follow the same patterns as those of its already-loyal core. As a result, trip frequency – rooted largely in planned stock-ups – remains remarkably consistent even as the warehouse giant grows foot traffic overall.
Dollar Tree currently has the smallest share of repeat visitors but is improving this metric. As it successfully encourages more frequent trips and narrows the loyalty gap with its larger rivals, it's poised to become an increasing source of competition for both Target and Costco.
The increase in repeat visits and cross-shopping across the five retail giants showcases consumers' current appetite for value-oriented mass merchants and discount chains. And although the retail giants landscape may be more fragmented, the data also reveals that the pie itself has grown significantly – so the increased competition does not necessarily need to come at the expense of legacy retail giants.
The retail landscape of 2025 demands a fundamental shift from zero-sum competition to strategic complementarity, where success lies in owning specific shopping missions rather than fighting for total market dominance. Retailers that forego attempting to compete on every front and instead clearly communicate their mission-specific value propositions – whether that's emergency runs, bulk essentials, or family shopping experiences – may come out on top.
