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Mercado Gonzalez: This Mexican Food Hall is a Magnet
Mercado Gonzalez opened less than six months ago, and boy, is it making a splash! This marketplace/food hall located in Costa Mesa, CA hosts 20 food stalls where one can stroll through, buy colorful produce, and imagine that one is at the Mercado de Coyoacan in Mexico City, one of various mercados from which this location takes inspiration. Already, we see from the Placer data below that since opening in mid-November (just in time for the holidays!), Mercado Gonzalez is proving to be one of the most-visited locations in the Northgate Gonzalez portfolio.
The weekend spikes really stand out as patrons from all over Southern California come to partake of pan dulces, aguas frescas, and oh-so-delectable hot and fresh churros at Churreria El Moro.
We wrote about food fusion last week, and indeed, in addition to traditional Mexican specialties like tortas ahogadas at Chiva Torta, one can also find Mexican-style sushi at Sushi El Sinaloense. From street food to gourmet at Maizano and Entre Nos, one has options that run the gamut from hot tortillas to cochinita pibil with fresh masa.
This food hall extravaganza bills itself as the “ultimate destination for Mexican food and culture” and it appears that customers who travel from a trade area of over 150 miles are in total agreement.
Compared to another top–trafficked Northgate Gonzalez market in Los Angeles, which draws from a much more local crowd of 11 sq miles (keep in mind, there are numerous Northgate Gonzalez markets across the Southern California landscape), this novel food hall concept attracts a much more diverse audience, across multiple dimensions like geography, ethnicity, and household income.
While the traditional grocery store attracts heavily from the segment of Lower Hispanic Families at the Los Angeles and San Diego locations, and also from Near-Urban Diverse Families and Young Urban Singles in San Diego, the segment data from Spatial.ai: PersonaLive reveals that Mercado Gonzalez also brings in Young Professionals, Educated Urbanites, Wealthy Suburban Families, and Ultra Wealthy Families.
In addition, the average HHI of those visiting Mercado Gonzalez is roughly twice that of the other Northgate Gonzalez grocery stores.
The food hall also attracts a broader swath of ethnicities.
Much like Eataly before it, Jose Andres’ Spanish Mercado Little Spain, or Asian food halls that we wrote about recently in our Lunar New Year articles, there is enthusiastic appetite for an immersive encounter reminiscent of being in another country and having access to authentic flavors and eating experiences.
Despite the inflationary headwinds that marked 2023, year-over-year (YoY) foot traffic to Indoor Malls and Open-Air Shopping Centers exceeded 2022 levels every quarter of 2023, with the two shopping center formats competing head-to-head for the top spot: Open-Air Shopping Centers outperformed Indoor Malls during the first three quarters of the year, but Indoor Malls came out ahead during the critical holiday-focused Q4. Ultimately, overall yearly visit numbers slightly favored Open-Air Shopping Centers, which finished 2023 with a 3.0% overall YoY increase in visits compared to 2.9% overall growth for Indoor Malls.
Meanwhile, Outlet Malls struggled to keep up with the other two formats. This segment saw a 1.6% YoY decline in yearly visits in 2023, perhaps due consumers looking to save on gas expenses and avoid the typically longer driving time required to get to these types of shopping centers.
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Visits to all three mall formats dipped YoY in January 2024, likely due to the extreme cold temperatures that swept through much of the country and to the challenging comparisons to a strong January 2023.
But YoY foot traffic to Indoor Malls and Open-Air Shopping Centers swung positive in the second months of the year. Visits to Indoor Malls grew an impressive 6.0% relative to the same month in 2023, and foot traffic to Open-Air Shopping Centers increased 3.9% in the same period. The YoY visit gap to Outlet Malls also narrowed significantly, with foot traffic to the format just 1.6% lower than it was in February 2023, indicating that – despite predictions – 2024 consumers are still willing to spend on discretionary categories.
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While visits to the mall space appear to be generally growing on a YoY basis, comparing the foot traffic performance to pre-COVID visits levels reveals a more nuanced picture. Of the three shopping centers formats, Open-Air Shopping Centers drew closest to pre-COVID levels, with 2023 visits just 1.5% lower than they were in 2019. The visit gap to Indoor Malls was slightly larger, with the format attracting 4.6% fewer visits in 2023 than in 2019. And Outlet Malls appear to be having the toughest recovery, with 2023 visits to the format 9.7% lower than in 2019.
But just because visits to the shopping center space are still catching up to 2019 levels does not mean that all is lost – a deeper dive into location intelligence data indicates that post-pandemic shopping habits are still in flux.
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Analyzing shifts in shopping behavior in recent years reveals that many shoppers are still returning to pre-COVID behaviors. For example, comparing the share of shopping center visits between the hours of 12 PM and 4 PM in 2019, 2022, and 2023 indicates that the “new normal” of mid-day shopping sprees is on its way out.
The share of hourly visits between 12 PM and 4 PM jumped over the pandemic thanks to consumers’ newly flexible schedules, and mid-day foot traffic to shopping centers was still higher in 2022 compared to pre-COVID. But the relative share of mid-day visits dropped from 2022 to 2023 and moved closer to 2019 levels – indicating that shopping patterns have not yet reached a post-COVID equilibrium.
Critically, there appears to be a correlation between the return to 2019 shopping patterns and the visit recovery rate. Visits to Open-Air Shopping Centers in 2023 were almost on par with 2019 levels, and the format’s mid-day visit share was only half a percentage point higher in 2023 than in 2019. The mid-day visit share at Indoor Malls, where the year-over-four-year (Yo4Y) visit lag was slightly larger than for Open-Air Shopping Centers, was still 1.9 percentage points higher in 2023 when compared to 2019. And Outlet Malls had the largest Yo4Y visit gap along with the largest Yo4Y difference in mid-day visit share.
This data indicates that post-pandemic shopping patterns are still dynamic – and even retail sectors that appear to have permanent COVID scars may well bounce back as consumer behavior continues to normalize.
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Despite predictions of slower consumer spending, foot traffic data indicates that demand for malls and shopping centers remains stable. Location intelligence showing strong monthly visit numbers and positive shifts in shopping behavior indicates that the shopping center space is off to a strong start in 2024.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit our blog at placer.ai.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
The Placer.ai Nationwide Office Building Index: The office building index analyzes foot traffic data from some 1,000 office buildings across the country. It only includes commercial office buildings, and commercial office buildings with retail offerings on the first floor (like an office building that might include a national coffee chain on the ground floor). It does NOT include mixed-use buildings that are both residential and commercial.
Just when we thought the return-to-office (RTO) debate was finally settled, things are heating up once again. Leading financial institutions like Goldman Sachs are requiring employees to come into the office five days a week (gasp!). And though research shows that remote-capable employees now live twice as far from the office as they did before COVID, some are now being asked to move back closer to the office and show up in person more often.
But what impact are these renewed skirmishes having on the ground? Has the office recovery needle begun to move once again? Or is all the talk merely that – talk?
We dove into the data to find out.
Nationwide, visits to office buildings were down just 31.3% in February 2024 compared to February 2020 – the nation’s last “normal” in-office month before COVID changed everything. This relatively narrow year-over-four-year (Yo4Y) visit gap may be partially due to this year’s February leap day: Last month had 20 working days, compared to just 19 in February 2020 and 2023. (2020 was also a leap year, but the extra day fell on the weekend.)
Still, office visits in February 2024 were also higher than in January 2024, when unusually cold and stormy weather stranded many Americans at home. And year over year (YoY), February 2024 visits were up 18.6% – which, even accounting for the month’s extra day, points towards significant growth.
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Taking a look at city-wide trends shows the persistence of significant regional variation – with Miami and New York continuing to lead the post-COVID office recovery pack, and San Francisco bringing up the rear. Dallas, Atlanta, and Washington, D.C. also outperformed the nationwide Yo4Y baseline of -31.3%. And of the cities that continued to lag behind, Chicago, Boston, and San Francisco all outpaced the national average for YoY visit growth.
Here, too, February 2024’s additional business day did some of the work. Nevertheless, urban centers like Miami and New York – where office visits were down just 9.4% and 14.5%, respectively, compared to February 2020 – are clearly experiencing accelerated recovery. In Miami, an influx of tech companies may be contributing to the narrowing foot traffic gap – while in New York, the finance sector is likely a major driver of visit growth. And though San Francisco continues to lag behind other cities, the tech hub’s impressive YoY foot traffic increases indicate real change on the ground.
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Hybrid work may be here to stay – but February’s office foot traffic data appears to indicate that companies and employees are still feeling out the ideal balance between RTO and WFH. And whether due to growing demands by employers or workers’ own concerns about the possible deleterious effects of fully remote work on their careers, further office recovery may yet be on the table.
How will RTO progress as 2024 gets into full swing? Will New York and Miami close the gap? And what will happen in San Francisco?
Follow Placer.ai’s data-driven office recovery analyses to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
The multi-billion dollar beauty industry has proved to be one of the most resilient retail categories over the past few years – and Ulta Beauty has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of this trend, reporting record growth and experiencing strong foot traffic to its stores.
We dove into the location intelligence data for Ulta to analyze recent foot traffic performance, explore seasonal trends, and better understand the chain’s visitor base.
The past few years have seen Ulta’s monthly foot traffic growing on a near-constant basis – and 2023 was no exception. Year-over-year (YoY) visits to the chain were up by double digits most months and Ulta consistently outperformed the wider Beauty & Spa segment. The company’s success appears poised to continue in 2024, with January 2024 visits up 4.9% relative to the already impressive January 2023, even as foot traffic to the wider Beauty & Spa category dipped.
The consistent foot traffic growth Ulta experienced in 2023 and early 2024 is particularly impressive given that 2022 was also a banner year for the brand – meaning that foot traffic has exceeded the previous years’ growth for two years straight. And the company seems to be capitalizing on its success by further enhancing its shopping experience, expanding its presence with new stores, and emphasizing wellness offerings at existing locations to keep its customers coming back.
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Charting the change in monthly foot traffic to Ulta helps visualize the chain’s seasonal visit patterns and highlight the company’s consistent upward climb since the 2021 retail reopening. The COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing lockdowns led to a steep drop in foot traffic, but visits picked up – and stayed up – as soon as social-distancing restrictions eased. And though inflation replaced the pandemic as an economic concern, Ulta visits continued on their upward climb, highlighting the broad appeal the chain offers to shoppers of all economic levels.
Ulta also enjoys significantly elevated visits during the holiday season, with foot traffic surging every December. And visits to the chain, even without a holiday spike, continue to exhibit growth – January 2024’s visits were 43.3% higher than they were in January 2019.
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While December may be the month that Ulta sees the most visits, there are plenty of other minor holidays and retail opportunities that contribute to foot traffic spikes to the retailer. And although Valentine’s Day isn’t a holiday in the official sense of the word, Ulta still enjoyed a mid-week boost in visits on Wednesday, February 14th 2024.
Visits to Ulta grew 17.2% on Valentine’s Day compared to traffic of the previous six Wednesdays. February 14th 2024 also saw 10.5% more visitors to Ulta than the day did in 2023, signaling a continued, growing interest in the beauty retailer.
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Ulta has taken pains to carry products for consumers of all ages, genders, and backgrounds –and recently, one age group in particular has been making headlines for its interest in beauty and skincare. Teens and tweens have been flocking to their local malls to try out products from brands like Drunk Elephant, driven, in part, by the rise of #BeautyTok, where influencers on TikTok post their makeup and skincare routines.
And indeed, trade area data indicates that families of all types are overrepresented among Ulta’s visitor base: Analyzing the psychographic makeup of Ulta’s trade areas using the Spatial.ai: PersonaLive dataset revealed that the chain’s captured market* includes more family segments when compared to the chain’s potential market*. Specifically, the chain’s captured markets had higher rates of “Near-Urban Diverse Families”, “Upper Suburban Diverse Families”, and “Wealthy Suburban Families” relative to the chain’s potential market. On the flip side, “Young Urban Singles” saw a smaller share of visitors in Ulta’s captured market than in its potential market.
Ulta’s popularity with family segments may be due to the increased demand for skincare and makeup among the families’ younger generations. And by continuing to cater to these younger consumers – alongside the numerous other segment that shop at Ulta – the company can hope to foster long-term brand loyalty and continue driving sales and foot traffic to its stores.
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*A chain’s potential market refers to the population residing in a given trade area, where the Census Block Groups (CBGs) making up the trade area are weighted to reflect the number of households in each CBG.. A chain’s captured market weighs each CBG according to the actual number of visits originating to the chain from that CBG.
Ulta continues to impress, growing its sales and foot traffic even during a uniquely challenging period for the average consumer. By creating a shopping experience that is accessible to people across all ages and income levels, the company ensures that its visits can continue to grow.
For more data-driven retail insights, follow placer.ai.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
First Watch has been around for over 40 years and is famous for being open from morning to early afternoon and a revolving menu that leans into seasonal ingredients. In recent years, the casual cafe – which derives its name from the nautical term for the first shift of the day – has made significant waves. The chain went public in 2021 and continues to drive consistent revenue and foot traffic – despite a stormy economic climate. We dove into the data to take a closer look at the consumer behavior behind First Watch’s success and understand where the chain could be heading in 2024 and beyond.
The Early Advantage
At First Watch, brunch and lunch join breakfast as the most important meals of the day. And while some of the chain’s competitors are open all day – or even all night – sticking to limited business hours has not steered the brand off course. Analysis of First Watch’s H2 2023 foot traffic compared to the wider breakfast-first category shows that First Watch’s monthly year-over-year (YoY) visits consistently outperformed the Breakfast, Coffee, Bakeries, and Dessert Shops space as a whole.
Some of the chain’s success is due to its expanding store fleet, with visits during the last five months of 2023 up by double digits compared to the equivalent months in 2022. And the chain is likely to rise even further in 2024 and beyond, with CEO Christopher Tomasso seeing continued expansion on the horizon.
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Indeed, looking at more recent data shows that First Watch’s growth is continuing even relative to the already strong 2023, with foot traffic to the chain up YoY and outperforming the wider Breakfast, Bakeries & Dessert Shops space every week of 2024 so far.
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The Next Voyage
C.E.O. Tomasso is determined to stay “true to who we are and what we’ve done regardless of how big we get.” And one way First Watch has stayed true to its identity is by being attentive to the preferences of its target audience. When customers wanted cocktails as a way to unwind with friends over brunch – First Watch delivered. And location intelligence can help identify the next consumer trend to drive the brand’s continued success.
Trade Area Analysis of First Watch in Q4 2023 using the AGS: Behavior & Attitudes dataset revealed that “Food Label Readers”, “Organic Foodies”, and “Vegans” were overrepresented in the restaurant’s trade areas compared to the nationwide benchmark. This indicates that First Watch’s commitment to fresh ingredients resonates with clientele that prioritize a healthy diet. Meanwhile, the data also showed that these consumers were likely to be involved in various forms of exercise; “Fitness Fans”, “Joggers”, “Pilates People”, and “Weight Lifters” were also prevalent psychographic segments in First Watch’s trade area.
This suggests that First Watch might consider exploring uncharted waters by adding smoothies or post-workout shakes to its menu, or by opening smaller-format locations in fitness centers to better serve its health-conscious audience.
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Land Ho!
First Watch has enjoyed smooth sailing through a commitment to bringing diners a fresh take on breakfast, brunch, and lunch. As long as this ship stays anchored in its identity, First Watch should find that the wind is at its back for the foreseeable future.
For updates and more data-driven dining insights, visit Placer.ai.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
Whether it’s an at-home yoga practice, a workout at the gym, or a sports league at the park, the biggest players in the sporting goods space – Hibbett Sports and DICK’s Sporting Goods – have the gear to keep a variety of consumers outfitted. Armed with the latest location intelligence data, we took a closer look at these retailers’ recent offline performance and analyzed some of the psychographic characteristics of visitors to DICK’s and Hibbett’s.
Last year started off strong for DICK’s Sporting Goods and Hibbett Sports, with visits to both retailers up in Q1 2023 relative to the equivalent quarter in 2022. But ongoing inflation and tighter consumer budgets weighed on visits as the year progressed, and foot traffic to DICK’s and Hibbett dipped slightly year-over-year (YoY) in the second half of the year. Still, in spite of the challenges, both brands succeeded in keeping their visits close to 2022 levels and maintaining minimal visit gaps.
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The strong Q1 2023 combined with unusually cold weather were likely partially to blame for DICK’s and Hibbett’s sluggish early 2024 performance. But by the end of January, YoY visit gaps had narrowed for both brands – a promising sign for the year ahead.
Who is likely to visit these brands in 2024? We looked at the retailers’ trade area composition to find out.
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Analyzing DICK’s and Hibbett’s trade area using the Spatial.ai: Proximity dataset revealed that both brands were positioned to drive traffic from two significant fitness-related psychographic segments at the end of 2023.
In Q4 2023, “Yoga Advocates” as well as fans of “Functional Fitness” were overrepresented in DICK’s and Hibbett’s trade area relative to the nationwide average. And DICK’s and Hibbett are investing heavily in getting these consumers in the door. DICK’s debut of a new functional fabric and ad campaign for its CALIA clothing line and Hibbett’s new joint loyalty program with Nike could provide an extra foot traffic boost from fitness-forward consumers as 2024 progresses. As temperatures thaw and demand rebounds, these consumers are likely to play a part in a foot traffic resurgence for both brands.
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But while certain sporty audience segments seem to visit both brands, diving deeper into DICK’s and Hibbett’s trade areas using the Spatial.ai: Followgraph dataset also revealed differences between the two retailers’ offline consumer base.
For example, the share of “Hunting Enthusiasts” in DICK’s trade area was 8% smaller compared to the nationwide average, while Hibbett’s trade area included 20% more “Hunting Enthusiasts” than the prevalence of the segment nationwide. Meanwhile, the “Triathlon Participants'’ segment was overrepresented in DICK’s potential market – 4.0% above the national average – and underrepresented in Hibbet’s potential market (8.0% below). These differences suggest that the sporting goods space is big enough to accommodate multiple players at the top, with leading retailers each carving out their own slice of the market.
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So Much Potential
After a relatively rocky end to 2023, foot traffic appears to be on the upswing for both DICK’s and Hibbett early on in 2024. The prevalence of fitness-minded and sporting consumers in the trade areas of both brands could provide a continued foot traffic lift in the weeks and months ahead.
For updates and more data-driven foot traffic insights, visit Placer.ai.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
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1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery formats grew year-over-year in Q2 2025, with traditional grocers posting their first rebound since early 2024.
2) Value grocers slow: After leading during the 2022–24 trade-down wave, value grocer growth has decelerated as that shift matures.
3) Fresh formats surge: Now the fastest-growing segment, fueled by affluent shoppers seeking health, wellness, and convenience.
4) Bifurcation widens: Growth concentrated at both the low-income (value) and high-income (fresh) ends, highlighting polarized spending.
5) Shopping missions diverge: Short trips are rising, supporting fresh formats, while traditional grocers retain loyal stock-up customers and value chains capture fill-in trips through private labels.
6) Traditional grocers adapt: H-E-B and Harris Teeter outperformed by tailoring strategies to their core geographies and demographics.Bifurcation of Consumer Spending Help Fresh Format Lead Grocery Growth
Grocery traffic across all four major categories – value grocers, fresh format, traditional grocery, ethnic grocers – was up year over year in Q2 2025 as shoppers continue to engage with a wide range of grocery formats. Traditional grocery posted its first YoY traffic increase since Q1 2024, while ethnic grocers maintained their steady pattern of modest but consistent gains.
Value grocers, which dominated growth through most of 2024 as shoppers prioritized affordability, continued to expand but have now ceded leadership to fresh-format grocers. Rising food costs between 2022 and 2024 drove many consumers to chains like Aldi and Lidl, but much of this “trade-down” movement has already occurred. Although price sensitivity still shapes consumer choices – keeping the value segment on an upward trajectory – its growth momentum has slowed, making it less of a driver for the overall sector.
Fresh-format grocers have now taken the lead, posting the strongest YoY traffic gains of any category in 2025. This segment, anchored by players like Sprouts, appeals to the highest-income households of the four categories, signaling a growing influence of affluent shoppers on the competitive grocery landscape. Despite accounting for just 7.0% of total grocery visits in H1 2025, the segment’s rapid gains point to a broader shift: premium brands emphasizing health and wellness are emerging as the primary engine of growth in the grocery sector.
The fact that value grocers and fresh-format grocers – segments with the lowest and highest median household incomes among their customer bases – are the two categories driving the most growth underscores how the bifurcation of consumer spending is playing out in the grocery space as well. On one end, price-sensitive shoppers continue to seek out affordable options, while on the other, affluent consumers are fueling demand for premium, health-oriented formats. This dual-track growth pattern highlights how widening economic divides are reshaping competitive dynamics in grocery retail.
1) Broad-based growth: All four grocery categories posted YoY traffic gains in Q2 2025.
2) Traditional grocery rebound: First YoY increase since Q1 2024.
3) Ethnic grocers: Continued steady but modest upward trend.
4) Value grocers: Still growing, but slowing after most trade-down activity already occurred (2022–24).
5) Fresh formats: Now the fastest-growing segment, driven by affluent shoppers and interest in health & wellness.
6) Market shift: Premium, health-oriented brands are becoming the new growth driver in grocery.
7) Bifurcation of spending: Growth at both value and fresh-format grocers highlights a polarization in consumer spending patterns that is reshaping grocery competition.
Over the past two years, short grocery trips (under 10 minutes) have grown far more quickly than longer visits. While they still make up less than one-quarter of all U.S. grocery trips, their steady expansion suggests this behavioral shift is here to stay and that its full impact on the industry has yet to be realized.
One format particularly aligned with this trend is the fresh-format grocer, where average dwell times are shorter than in other categories. Yet despite benefiting from the rise of convenience-driven shopping, fresh formats attract the smallest share of loyal visitors (4+ times per month). This indicates they are rarely used for a primary weekly shop. Instead, they capture supplemental trips from consumers looking for specific needs – unique items, high-quality produce, or a prepared meal – who also value the ability to get in and out quickly.
In contrast, leading traditional grocers like H-E-B and Kroger thrive on a classic supermarket model built around frequent, comprehensive shopping trips. With the highest share of loyal visitors (38.5% and 27.6% respectively), they command a reliable customer base coming for full grocery runs and taking time to fill their carts.
Value grocers follow a different, but equally effective playbook. Positioned as primary “fill-in” stores, they sit between traditional and fresh formats in both dwell time and visit frequency. Many rely on limited assortments and a heavy emphasis on private-label goods, encouraging shoppers to build larger baskets around basics and store brands. Still, the data suggests consumers reserve their main grocery hauls for traditional supermarkets with broader selections, while using value grocers to stretch budgets and stock up on essentials.
1) Short trips surge: Under-10-minute visits have grown fastest, signaling a lasting behavioral shift.
2) Fresh formats thrive on convenience: Small footprints, prepared foods, and specialty items align with quick missions.
3) Traditional grocers retain loyalty: Traditional grocers such as H-E-B and Kroger attract frequent, comprehensive stock-up trips.
4) Value grocers fill the middle ground: Limited assortments and private label drive larger baskets, but main hauls remain with traditional supermarkets.
5) Fresh formats as supplements: Fresh format grocers such as The Fresh Market capture quick, specialized trips rather than weekly shops.
While broad market trends favor value and fresh-format grocers, certain traditional grocers are proving that a tailored strategy is a powerful tool for success. In the first half of 2025, H-E-B and Harris Teeter significantly outperformed their category's modest 0.6% average year-over-year visit growth, posting impressive gains of 5.6% and 2.8%, respectively. Their success demonstrates that even in a polarizing environment, there is ample room for traditional formats to thrive by deeply understanding and catering to a specific target audience.
These two brands achieve their success with distinctly different, yet equally focused, demographic strategies. H-E-B, a Texas powerhouse, leans heavily into major metropolitan areas like Austin and San Antonio. This urban focus is clear, with 32.6% of its visitors coming from urban centers and their peripheries, far above the category average. Conversely, Harris Teeter has cultivated a strong following in suburban and satellite cities in the South Atlantic region, drawing a massive 78.3% of its traffic from these areas. This deliberate targeting shows that knowing your customer's geography and lifestyle remains a winning formula for growth.
1) Traditional grocers can still be competitive: H-E-B (+5.6% YoY) and Harris Teeter (+2.8% YoY) outpaced the category average of +0.6% in H1 2025.
2) H-E-B’s strategy: Strong urban focus, with 32.6% of traffic from major metro areas like Austin and San Antonio.
3) Harris Teeter’s strategy: Suburban and satellite city focus, with 78.3% of traffic from South Atlantic suburbs.
1. The hypergrowth of Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General between 2019 and 2025 has fundamentally changed the brick-and-mortar retail landscape.
2. Overall visits to Target and Walmart have remained essentially stable even as traffic to the new retail giants skyrocketed – so the increased competition is not necessarily coming at legacy giants' expense. Instead, each retail giant is filling a different need, and success now requires excelling at specific shopping missions rather than broad market dominance.
3. Cross-shopping has become the new normal, with Walmart and Target maintaining their popularity even as their relative visit shares decline, creating opportunities for complementary rather than purely competitive strategies.
4. Dollar stores are rapidly graduating from "fill-in" destinations to primary shopping locations, signaling a fundamental shift in how Americans approach everyday retail.
5. Walmart still enjoys the highest visit frequency, but the other four chains – and especially Dollar General – are gaining ground in this realm.
6. Geographic and demographic specialization is becoming the key differentiator, as each chain carves out distinct niches rather than competing head-to-head across all markets and customer segments.
Evolving shopper priorities, economic pressures, and new competitors are reshaping how and where Americans buy everyday goods. And as value-focused players gain ground, legacy retail powerhouses are adapting their strategies in a bid to maintain their visit share. In this new consumer reality, shoppers no longer stick to one lane, creating a complex ecosystem where loyalty, geography, and cross-visitation patterns – not just market share – define who is truly winning.
This report explores the latest retail traffic data for Walmart, Target, Costco, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General to decode what consumers want from retail giants in 2025. By analyzing visit patterns, loyalty trends, and cross-shopping shifts, we reveal how fast-growing chains are winning over consumers and uncover the strategies helping legacy players stay competitive in today's value-driven retail landscape.
In 2019, Walmart and Target were the two major behemoths in the brick-and-mortar retail space. And while traffic to these chains remains close to 2019 levels, overall visits to Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco have increased 36.6% to 45.9% in the past six years. Much of the growth was driven by aggressive store expansions, but average visits per location stayed constant (in the case of Dollar Tree) or grew as well (in the case of Dollar General and Costco). This means that these chains are successfully filling new stores with visitors – consumers who in the past may have gone to Walmart or Target for at least some of the items now purchased at wholesale clubs and dollar stores.
This substantial increase in visits to Costco, Dollar General, and Dollar Tree has altered the competitive landscape in which Walmart and Target operate. In 2019, 55.9% of combined visits to the five retailers went to Walmart. Now, Walmart’s relative visit share is less than 50%. Target received the second-highest share of visits to the five retailers in 2019, with 15.9% of combined traffic to the chains. But Between January and July 2025, Dollar General received more visits than Target – even though the discount store had received just 12.1% of combined visits in 2019.
Some of the growth of the new retail giants could be attributed to well-timed expansion. But the success of these chains is also due to the extreme value orientation of U.S. consumers in recent years. Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Costco each offer a unique value proposition, giving today's increasingly budget-conscious shoppers more options.
Walmart’s strategy of "everyday low prices" and its strongholds in rural and semi-rural areas reflect its emphasis on serving broad, value-focused households – often catering to essential, non-discretionary shopping.
Dollar General serves an even larger share of rural and semi-rural shoppers than Walmart, following its strategy of bringing a curated selection of everyday basics to underserved communities. The retailer's packaging is typically smaller than Walmart's, which allows Dollar General to price each item very affordably – and its geographic concentration in rural and semi-rural areas also highlights its direct competition to Walmart.
By contrast, Target and Costco both compete for consumer attention in suburban and small city settings, where shopper profiles tilt more toward families seeking one-stop-shopping and broader discretionary offerings. But Costco's audience skews slightly more affluent – the retailer attracts consumers who can afford the membership fees and bulk purchasing requirements – and its visit growth may be partially driven by higher income Target shoppers now shopping at Costco.
Dollar Tree, meanwhile, showcases a uniquely balanced real estate strategy. The chain's primary strength lies in suburban and small cities but it maintains a solid footing in both rural and urban areas. The chain also offers a unique value proposition, with a smaller store format and a fixed $1.25 price point on most items. So while the retailer isn't consistently cheaper than Walmart or Dollar General across all products, its convenience and predictability are helping it cement its role as a go-to chain for quick shopping trips or small quantities of discretionary items. And its versatile, three-pronged geographic footprint allows it to compete across diverse markets: Dollar Tree can serve as a convenient, quick-trip alternative to big-box retailers in the suburbs while also providing essential value in both rural and dense urban communities.
As each chain carves out distinct geographic and demographic niches, success increasingly depends on being the best option for particular shopping missions (bulk buying, quick trips, essential needs) rather than trying to be everything to everyone.
Still, despite – or perhaps due to – the increased competition, shoppers are increasingly spreading their visits across multiple retailers: Cross-shopping between major chains rose significantly between 2019 and 2025. And Walmart remains the most popular brick-and-mortar retailer, consistently ranking as the most popular cross-shopping destination for visitors of every other chain, followed by Target.
This creates an interesting paradox when viewed alongside the overall visit share shift. Even as Walmart and Target's total share of visits has declined, their importance as a secondary stop has actually grown. This suggests that the legacy retail giants' dip in market share isn't due to shoppers abandoning them. Instead, consumers are expanding their shopping routines by visiting other growing chains in addition to their regular trips to Walmart and Target, effectively diluting the giants' share of a larger, more fragmented retail landscape.
Cross-visitation to Costco from Walmart, Target, and Dollar Tree also grew between 2019 and 2025, suggesting that Costco is attracting a more varied audience to its stores.
But the most significant jumps in cross-visitation went to Dollar Tree and Dollar General, with cross-visitation to these chains from Target, Walmart, and Costco doubling or tripling over the past six years. This suggests that these brands are rapidly graduating from “fill-in” fare to primary shopping destinations for millions of households.
The dramatic rise in cross-visitation to dollar stores signals an opportunity for all retailers to identify and capitalize on specific shopping missions while building complementary partnerships rather than viewing every chain as direct competition.
Walmart’s status as the go-to destination for essential, non-discretionary spending is clearly reflected in its exceptional loyalty rates – nearly half its visitors return at least three times per month on average -between January to July 2025, a figure virtually unchanged since 2019. This steady high-frequency visitation underscores how necessity-driven shopping anchors customer routines and keeps Walmart atop the retail loyalty ranks.
But the data also reveals that other retail giants – and Dollar General in particular – are steadily gaining ground. Dollar General's increased visit frequency is largely fueled by its strategic emphasis on adding fresh produce and other grocery items, making it a viable everyday stop for more households and positioning it to compete more directly with Walmart.
Target also demonstrates a notable uptick in loyal visitors, with its share of frequent shoppers visiting at least three times a month rising from 20.1% to 23.6% between 2019 and 2025. This growth may suggest that its strategic initiatives – like the popular Drive Up service, same-day delivery options, and an appealing mix of essentials and exclusive brands – are successfully converting some casual shoppers into repeat customers.
Costco stands out for a different reason: while overall visits increased, loyalty rates remained essentially unchanged. This speaks to Costco’s unique position as a membership-based outlet for targeted bulk and premium-value purchases, where the shopping behavior of new visitors tends to follow the same patterns as those of its already-loyal core. As a result, trip frequency – rooted largely in planned stock-ups – remains remarkably consistent even as the warehouse giant grows foot traffic overall.
Dollar Tree currently has the smallest share of repeat visitors but is improving this metric. As it successfully encourages more frequent trips and narrows the loyalty gap with its larger rivals, it's poised to become an increasing source of competition for both Target and Costco.
The increase in repeat visits and cross-shopping across the five retail giants showcases consumers' current appetite for value-oriented mass merchants and discount chains. And although the retail giants landscape may be more fragmented, the data also reveals that the pie itself has grown significantly – so the increased competition does not necessarily need to come at the expense of legacy retail giants.
The retail landscape of 2025 demands a fundamental shift from zero-sum competition to strategic complementarity, where success lies in owning specific shopping missions rather than fighting for total market dominance. Retailers that forego attempting to compete on every front and instead clearly communicate their mission-specific value propositions – whether that's emergency runs, bulk essentials, or family shopping experiences – may come out on top.
