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Wingstop and Shake Shack are on a roll. We dove into recent location intelligence data to understand what is driving success at these two dining leaders.
Texas-based Wingstop and New York-based Shake Shack are growing fast. Over the past twelve months, both chains outperformed the fast casual segment and posted impressive traffic increases – in March 2024, visits to Wingstop and Shake Shack were up 25.6% and 32.6%, respectively, compared to March 2023.
Some of the visit strength is likely driven by the chains’ recent expansion. Last year, Wingstop opened around 200 of its almost 2000 U.S. locations, while Shake Shack opened around 40 new restaurants domestically for a total of more than 300 locations in December 2023.
A rapidly expanding footprint is not the only factor driving success for these fast casual leaders. Location intelligence suggests that both chains attract visitors looking for a more leisurely dining experience, which could be helping Wingstop and Shake Shack stay ahead of the competition.
Compared to the average fast-casual dining venue, Wingstop and Shake Shack receive fewer visits during the lunch rush (12:00 to 2:59 PM) when diners are looking for a quick bite to eat before returning to work. Instead, the two chains attract a larger share of visits in the evening hours (between 7:00 and 9:59 PM) – when guests tend to have more time to savor their meals. Both chains also receive a relatively sizable portion of their visits on weekends, when patrons have more time to linger on premises.
And the data indicates that Shake Shack and Wingstop visitors do indeed linger longer than the average fast casual patron: Over half of visits to Wingstop and almost two-thirds of Shake Shack visits last longer than 15 minutes, compared to just 48.2% of visits lasting 15+ minutes for the wider fast casual segment.
It seems, then, that consumers are not just visiting Shake Shack or Wingstop for a burger and shake combo or a platter of steaming wings. The data suggests that many guests are also visiting these chains during more leisurely times when they can focus on the dining experience and take in the chains’ atmosphere.
As the companies continue to expand into new markets and deepen their reach in existing ones, the willingness of consumers to dedicate evenings and weekends to eating at Shake Shack and Wingstop bodes well for these chains in 2024 – and beyond.
For more data-driven dining insights, visit placer.ai/blog.
We recently looked at where the home improvement retail category stood after 1Q 2024, noting that industry had seen improved visit trends and that we could see continued momentum in the second half of 2024 as housing turnover picks up. As a follow up to that analysis, we thought we’d examine a wider range of retailers in the home improvement retail category. Below, we’ve presented year-over-year visitation trends for the top retailers in the home improvement category in terms of visits. While Home Depot and Lowe’s are down on a year-over-year basis, we see that a number of smaller box chains like Harbor Freight and Ace Hardware are seeing year-over-year visits (Large-box Menards has also been relatively strong).
The trend of smaller box home improvement retailers outperforming has actually been going on for a while. Below, we show share visit data from 2017-2023 for the largest home improvement retailers. Here we also see big gains from Ace Hardware and Harbor Freight
What explains these trends? We believe a lot of it boils down to store expansion and migration trends. Both chains have been growing. We discussed Ace Hardware’s unit growth plans back in November 2022, with the chain reaching 5,800 stores globally (and more than 4,700 in the U.S.) after opening 160 locations in 2022 and 170 in 2023. We’ve also called out Harbor Freight’s recent growth–it was one of the reasons we named it to our Top 10 Brands to watch list this year–and the chain now operates almost 1,500 locations across the U.S. Below, using Placer’s new Map Studio feature to plot Harbor Freight and Ace Hardware locations nationwide. We see a heavy concentration of stores in the Eastern U.S. for both chains.
We’ve also presented a map from Placer’s Migration Report below showing population percentage growth from January 2020 to January 2024 at the market level. Green dots represent markers that have seen permanent population growth, while red represents markets that have seen population declines.
Examining the two maps together sheds some light on the success of Harbor Freight and Ace Hardware–they have a high degree of overlap with some of the highest growth markets in the U.S. We’ve covered the migration of consumers to these markets in the past, including markets have populations smaller than 500,000 people and often under 200,000 individuals. Here, having a smaller format box is an advantage for chains like Harbor Freight and Ace Hardware. Home Depot and Lowe’s both average more than 100,000 square feet per store, which can be difficult to justify in a smaller population market. However, the average Harbor Freight store is 15,000-16,500 square feet and the average Ace Hardware is 10,000 square feet (although ranging between 3,000 and 30,000 square feet). This has allowed both chains to tap smaller markets where much of the population (and household income) has transferred to.
Not surprising, we’ve seen a flood of announcements about retail chains planning to adopt smaller store formats over the past few months. We’ve previously discussed examples across a number of retail categories, including home furnishing (Arhaus and Ethan Allen) and department stores (Bloomie’s), but there has been a notable uptick in announcements from retailers unveiling smaller format stores, including Best Buy, Macy’s, and Whole Foods. Lowe’s has recognized this trend, announcing plans to more aggressively open stores in rural markets.
At a time when it’s more expensive for retailers to operate physical stores due to higher interest rates, higher rent costs (especially among A malls properties), minimum wage increases and labor scarcity, retailers are looking for any way they can to maximize the returns on their store properties, including retail media networks, store-in-store partnerships, and co-branded stores. However, in addition to generating more revenue from ancillary services like advertising or store-in-store partnerships, it’s clear that utilizing a smaller box to address population migration trends has become an increasingly attractive option
Commercial real estate is constantly coming up with new and inventive concepts, and one of the latest ideas is the dog park bar. Chains such as Bark Social and Fetch Park are two such entrants that noted the rise in pet ownership during Covid, and are capitalizing on pet owners’ love for their dogs, as well as desire for human companionship and playdates for their canines.
These dog park bars combine the joy of seeing your furry friend run around with other dogs, while the owners can enjoy a cold frosty brew.
Fetch Park has five locations in Georgia, including Buckhead and Alpharetta. Meanwhile, Bark Social has locations in Baltimore, Bethesda, Alexandria, and Philadelphia, with upcoming plans for Los Angeles and Columbia.
Fetch Park includes events such as “Ales, Tails, and Trivia”, weekly karaoke nights, stand-up comedy, and even a singles’ mingle to meet other like-minded pooch people. Bark Social styles itself as a bar for dog lovers, and includes Bark Rangers that oversee puppy activities such as holding your pet’s first birthday party. There is even doggy daycare and summer camp available.
And in sunny LA, it’s not the San Vicente Bungalows or SoHo House that’s getting attention, it’s Dog PPL in Santa Monica, a private dog park whose $80/month membership lets your dog play in style. There are “ruffarrees” on hand to keep the calm while owners socialize and imbibe rosé or kombucha. It can even serve as a co-working location or gym substitute with its dog yoga classes.
Source: Dog PPL
If you’re in the Midwest, check out Barkside in Detroit. This 10,000 sq ft location in the West Village combines a dog park, bar, and beer garden all in one. There is a special focus on Detroit and Michigan brands when it comes to libations, which include beer, wine, spritzers, and a variety of coffee drinks.
And if you truly can’t part from your furry friend for even a minute, new BARK Air has partnered with a jet charter service and offers a Gulfstream V so you and your pet can travel in style. For the price of $6,000 one-way, amenities include dog champagne (aka chicken broth), special blankets and pillows, and delicious dog treats. This service is only available for NY, LA, and London jetsetters, but if this concept takes off and comes to more cities, that would truly be paw-some.
If there’s one sector of the retail industry that continues to innovate, evolve and perform at a high level, it’s convenience stores. Convenience chains remained in lock step with their consumers over the past few years, a difficult feat for many retailers, and benefited from suburban and rural migration patterns. 2023 was a banner year for C-Stores, with visits to large scale chains growing by 6% compared to 2022 (though some of the growth was due to chain consolidation).
C-Stores have done a fantastic job of attracting more visitors through additions like EV charging, local autonomous delivery, and expanded service offerings. However, the winning formula for many C-Store chains has been the bet on fresh, prepared and made to order foods. Chains have transformed consumer thinking around convenience driven foodservice and the concept has won over consumer’s appetites and wallets.
Chains that prioritize prepared foods have higher dwell times, more weekend visits and strong traffic growth according to our data. In a retail industry that prioritizes uniqueness in experience and product, more foodservice options clearly move the needle for visitors. Compared to the large chain C-store average dwell time of 10 minutes in Q1 2024, chains such as Buc-ee’s, Wawa, and Sheetz have higher dwell times by at least a minute, while chains associated with grab-and-go have shorter than average dwell times.
Looking a little more closely at Buc-ee’s, the darling of both the southeast and TikTok fame, the dwell time is double the average of large chain C-Stores. Buc-ee’s has the unique ability to blend entertainment, kitsch and prepared foods in a way that enchants visitors. Maybe it’s the chain’s Beaver Nuggets or the house-smoked barbeque, or its beloved mascot?
Buc-ee’s has the highest percentage of visits lasting 15 minutes or longer, and excels in visits between 15 and 45 minutes compared to other C-Store chains (below). More than half of the visits to Buc-ee’s occur between Friday-Sunday, more than any other competitor. Buc-ee’s can be seen as a destination C-Store as opposed to a daily stop due to the size and location of stores, which certainly contributes to the higher dwell time. Other C-Store chains looking to improve food offerings can use Buc-ee’s as a source of inspiration when it comes to breadth of assortment and mix of specialty packaged items and foodservice options.
The most surprising metrics come from Casey’s, a chain that has publicly committed to foodservice, but can’t seem to capture longer visits. Casey’s dwell time more closely mirrors that of grab-and-go chains like Maverik or Kwik Trip than it does Buc-ee’s or Wawa. Looking at the differences in demographic segments between Buc-ee’s, Wawa and Casey’s, Wawa and Buc-ee’s attract a visitor that is suburban, younger and more affluent than Casey’s. There may be a correlation between made to order offerings and suburban locations that’s benefitting chains focused on both.
The C-Store evolution is quickly blurring the lines between grocery, QSR and traditional convenience models, and is a bellwether of what’s to come across other sectors in retail. The bi-furcation of c-store formats is likely to accelerate throughout the remainder of 2024. Blending the right product selection, on-demand offerings and a beneficial experience for visitors is necessary in today’s retail climate.
Sprouts, the natural and organic food focused grocery chain operating in 23 states nationwide, is going through a growth spurt. We dove into the visit and audience data to see where the chain stands today and what the rest of 2024 – and beyond – may have in store.
Sprouts is on the rise. Year-over-year (YoY) visits increased every month of last year and have been outperforming the nationwide Grocery average since mid-2023. And the chain continued to grow in Q1 2024, with visits up an impressive 13.3% and 11.9% in February and March 2024, respectively – an impressive feat given the comparison to an already strong Q1 2023.
Some of the growth is driven by expansion – the company opened 30 new stores in 2023 and expects to add 35 additional locations in 2024. But the increase in foot traffic is also a testament to the potential of specialty grocery stores to leverage their unique product selection to attract grocery shoppers, even in the face of growing competition in the space.
The relatively high income of Sprout’s visitor base is likely also helping the chain stay ahead of the grocery pack: Median HHI in Sprout’s trade areas nationwide is higher than the U.S. median HHI, and the data shows a similar trend in Sprout’s eight growth markets.
The relative affluence of Sprouts shoppers means that this segment may not be as impacted by high food prices as other grocery shoppers – so the retail headwinds predicted this year are not likely to slow down Sprout’s growth potential as the chain continues expanding its reach in 2024.
While Sprouts’ visitors across states seem to share a relatively high income level, diving deeper into the location intelligence data reveals some major differences in both in-store behavior and overall market composition.
For example, the share of weekend (as opposed to weekday) visits to Sprouts in Q1 2024 varied significantly – from 31.3% in California to 36.6% in Virginia. Shoppers in the company’s various growth markets also visited stores at different hours throughout the day: Mornings (8:00 AM to 9:59 PM) were popular with California, Delaware, and Pennsylvania residents, while evenings were favored by Pennsylvanians, Floridians, and Texans.
Understanding the in-store behavior of shoppers in each state will likely help Sprouts adapt its operations and staffing schedules as the company continues expanding in these markets.
In addition to highlighting the variance between the shopping habits of Sprouts visitors across markets, diving deeper into the location intelligence data also reveals differences in the relationship between Sprouts shoppers and the wider grocery markets in each state.
The chart below shows the most popular grocery alternative for Sprouts shoppers in each state (which other grocery chain was the most visited by Sprouts visitors) and what share of Sprouts shoppers visited that grocery chain in Q1 2024.
In Florida, over 90% of Sprouts shoppers also visited a Publix location in Q1 2024 – indicating that Sprouts in the Sunshine State is operating in a relatively consolidated grocery market and operating against an established crowd favorite. Meanwhile, only 46.9% of Texan Sprouts visitors also visited a Kroger – the other grocery chain most visited by Sprouts visitors – indicating that the Texas grocery market may be more fragmented, and so may respond to a different expansion strategy, than the Florida grocery market.
Sprouts strong visitation trends indicate that the grocery chain is expanding into willing markets, and the brand’s relatively affluent shopper base means that Sprouts is unlikely to be too impacted by whatever economic headwinds may lie ahead. As the chain continues making its presence felt in newer markets, location intelligence suggests that Sprouts has plenty of room to grow in 2024 and beyond.
For more data-driven retail insights, visit our blog at placer.ai.
Crocs’ rebrand from ugly to chic is one of retail’s most fascinating Cinderella stories (glass clog, anyone?). We dive into the latest location analytics and demographic data to explore the consumer behavior that drives Crocs’ continued success.
Embarking on a journey to become a fashionable brand, in 2017 Crocs inked a partnership with Christopher Kane who became the first designer to collaborate with the brand. A stampede of designer and celebrity-inspired styles followed in 2018 and 2019 including Balenciaga's iconic ten-inch platform Croc and Post Malone's take on the classic clog.
During the pandemic, Crocs built on its success in fashion and celebrity circles, and gained a new following from comfort-first shoe shoppers stuck at home or running errands.
Taking a wide lens on Crocs’ foot traffic since 2018 shows how a strategy of designer partnerships as well as recognition as a functional shoe drives visits to the brand. In 2018 and 2019, as designer Crocs rolled out, visits to the brand climbed to new heights.
And since the wider retail reopening in 2021, Crocs’ foot traffic growth has accelerated as comfort reigns supreme in and out of the home.
Compared to a Q1 2018 baseline, Crocs saw its largest monthly visit peak in Q3 2023 (199.1%) – the critical summer period. And foot traffic in the most recent Q1 2024 was 43.7% above the Q1 2018 baseline. This indicates that the shoe’s acceptance within pop-culture combined with demand for comfortable footwear is elevating the brand’s traffic to new levels.
As Crocs continues to gain traction, the company appears to be pursuing a real estate strategy aimed at repositioning the brand as an affordable shoe for the whole family. Although Crocs shrank its store count in the years leading up to the pandemic, the brand has now begun opening new locations in outlet malls – five in 2023, with plans for 30 new stores in outlet malls in 2024.
Analyzing Crocs’ trade areas between 2018 and 2023 suggests that this strategy is helping the brand reach its audience. According to the STI: Popstats 2023 dataset, in 2018, there was a gap of more than $6K between the median household income (HHI) in Crocs’ potential market ($81.0K/year) and in its captured market ($74.7K/year). But by 2023, the median HHI of the brand’s potential market ($75.5K) and captured market ($75.9K) had more closely aligned. This indicates that by opening stores in outlet malls – where consumers looking for discounts are likely to shop – Crocs’ potential market more closely reflects its actual visitors and the brand can drive additional traffic from its target audience.
From humble beginnings, Crocs have become runway-famous. And yet, the clogs are more popular than ever with the everyday consumer – at home or out on the town. How will Crocs shape the next chapter of this foam fairytale?
Visit Placer.ai to find out.
This blog includes data from Placer.ai Data Version 2.0, which implements improvements to our extrapolation capabilities, adds short visit monitoring, and enhances visit detection.
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1. Overall dining traffic is mostly flat, but growth is concentrated in specific areas.
While nationwide dining visits were nearly unchanged in early 2025, western states like Utah, Idaho, and Nevada showed moderate growth, while states in the Midwest and South, along with Washington D.C., saw declines.
2. Fine dining and coffee chains are growing through expansion, not just busier locations.
These two segments were the only ones to see an increase in total visits, but their visits-per-location actually decreased, indicating that opening new stores is the primary driver of their growth.
3. Higher-income diners are driving the growth in resilient categories.
The segments that saw visit growth—fine dining and coffee—also attracted customers with the highest median household incomes, suggesting that affluent consumers are still spending on dining despite economic headwinds.
4. Remote work continues to reshape dining habits.
The share of suburban customers at fine dining establishments has increased since 2019, while it has decreased for coffee chains. This reflects a shift towards "destination" dining closer to home and away from commute-based coffee runs.
5. Limited-service restaurants own the weekdays; full-service restaurants win the weekend.
QSR, fast casual, and coffee chains see the majority of their traffic from Monday to Friday, whereas casual and fine dining see a significant spike in visits on weekends.
6. Each dining segment dominates a specific time of day.
Consumer visits are highly predictable by the hour: coffee leads in the early morning, fast casual peaks at lunch, casual dining takes the afternoon, fine dining owns the dinner slot, and QSR captures the late-night crowd.
Overall dining visits held relatively steady in the first five months of 2025, with year-over-year (YoY) visits to the category down 0.5% for January to May 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Most of the country saw slight declines (less than 2.0%), though some states and districts experienced larger drops: Washington, D.C, saw the largest visit gap (-3.6% YoY), followed by Kansas and North Dakota (-2.9%), Arkansas (-2.8%), Missouri and Kentucky (-2.6%), Oklahoma (-2.1%), and Louisiana (-2.0%).
Still, there were several pockets of moderate dining strength, specifically in the west of the United States. January to May 2025 dining visits in Utah, Idaho, and Nevada increased 1.8% to 2.4% YoY, while the coastal states saw traffic rise 0.6% (California) to 1.2% (Washington). Vermont also saw a slight increase in dining visits (+1.9%).
Diving into visit trends by dining segment shows that fine dining and coffee saw the strongest overall visit trends, with visits to the segments up 1.3% and 2.6% YoY, respectively, between January and May 2025. But visits per location trends were negative for both segments – a decline of 0.8% YoY for fine dining and 1.8% for coffee during the period – suggesting that much of the visit strength is due to expansions rather than more crowded restaurants and coffee shops.
In contrast, full-service casual dining saw overall visits decrease by 1.5%, while visits per location remained stable (+0.2%) YoY between January and May 2025. Several casual dining chains have rightsized in the past twelve months – including Red Lobster, TGI Fridays, and Outback Steakhouse – which impacted overall visit numbers. But the data seems to show that their rightsizing was effective, as the remaining locations successfully absorbed the traffic and maintained performance levels from the previous year. And the monthly data also provides much reason for optimism, with May traffic up both overall and on a visit per location basis – suggesting that the casual dining segment is well positioned for growth in the second half of 2025.
Meanwhile, QSR and fast casual chains saw similar minor visits per venue dips (-1.5% and -1.2%, respectively). At the same time, QSR also saw an overall visit dip (-0.8%) while traffic to fast casual chains increased slightly (+0.3%) – suggesting that the fast casual segment is expanding more aggressively than QSR. But the two segments decoupled somewhat in May, with overall traffic and visits per venue to fast casual chains up YoY while traffic remained flat and visits per venue fell slightly for QSR – perhaps due to the relatively greater affluence of fast casual's consumer base.
Analyzing the income levels of visitors to the various dining segments over time shows that each segment followed a slightly different trend – and the differences in visitor income may help explain some of the current traffic patterns.
The only three segments with YoY visit growth – casual dining, fine dining, and coffee – also had the highest captured market median household income (HHI). Although the median HHI in the captured market of upscale and fine dining chains fell after COVID, it has risen back steadily over time and now stands at $98.0K – slightly higher than the $97.1K median HHI between January to May 2019. This may explain the segment's resilience in the face of wider consumer headwinds. Meanwhile, the median HHI at fast casual and coffee chains has fallen slightly, perhaps due to aggressive expansions in the space – including Dave's Hot Chicken and Dutch Bros – which likely broadened the reach of the segments, driving visits up and trade area median HHI down.
Like fine dining, casual dining also saw its trade area median HHI increase slightly over time – but the segment has still been facing visit dips. This could mean that, even though consumers trading down to casual dining may have boosted the trade area median HHI for the segment, it still might not have been enough to make up for the customers lost to tighter budgets.
The QSR segment saw its trade area median HHI remain remarkably steady – and visits to the segment have also been quite consistent – staying between $70.6K and $70.9K between 2019 and 2025 – which may explain why the segment's visits remained relatively stable YoY.
Diving into the psychographic segmentation shows that, although the fine dining segment attracted visitors from the highest-income areas between January and May 2025, fast casual chains drew the highest share of visitors from suburban areas, followed by casual dining and coffee. QSR attracted the smallest share of suburban visitors, with just 30.5% of the category's captured market between January and May 2025 belonging to Spatial.ai: PersonaLive suburban segments.
But looking at the data since 2019 reveals small but significant changes in the shares of suburban audiences in some categories' captured markets. And although the percentage changes are slight, these represent hundreds of thousands of diners every year.
The data shows that shares of suburban segments in the captured markets of fine dining chains have increased, while their share in the captured market of coffee chains has decreased. The shares of suburban visitors to QSR, fast casual, and casual chains have remained relatively steady.
This may suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent rise of remote and hybrid work models are still impacting consumer dining habits, benefiting destination-worthy experiences in suburban locales such as fine dining chains while reducing the necessity of daily coffee runs that were often tied to commuting and office work. Meanwhile, the stability in QSR, fast casual, and casual dining segments could indicate that these categories continue to meet consistent suburban demand for convenience and everyday dining, largely unaffected by the redistribution seen in the fine dining and coffee sectors.
Although QSR, fast casual, casual dining, fine dining, and coffee all fall under the wider dining umbrella, the data shows distinct consumer behavior patterns regarding visits to these five categories.
Limited service segments, including QSR, fast casual, and coffee tend to see higher shares of visits on weekdays, while full service segments – casual dining and fine dining – receive higher shares of weekend visits. Diving deeper shows that QSR has the largest share of weekday visits, with 72.3% of traffic coming in between Monday and Friday, followed by fast casual (69.8% of visits on weekdays) and coffee (69.4% of visits on weekdays.) Looking at trends within the work week shows that QSR receives a slightly larger visit share between Monday and Thursday compared to the other limited service segments. Meanwhile, coffee seems to receive the smallest share of Friday visits – 16.3% compared to 17.0% for fast casual and 17.2% for QSR.
On the full-service side, casual dining and fine dining chains have relatively similar shares of weekend visits (39.0% and 38.8%, respectively), but fine dining also sees an uptick of visits on Fridays (with 19.1% of weekly visits) as consumers choose to start the weekend on a festive note.
Hourly visit patterns also show variability between the segments. Coffee is the unsurprising leader of early visits, with 14.6% of visits taking place before 8 AM and, almost two-thirds (64.9%) of visits taking place before 2 PM. Fast casual leads the lunch rush (29.4% of visits between 11 AM and 2 PM), casual dining chains receive the largest share of afternoon (2 PM to 5 PM) visits, and fine dining chains receive the largest share of dinner visits, with almost 70% of visits taking place between 5 PM and 11 PM. QSR leads the late night visit share – 4.1% of visits take place between 11 PM and 5 AM – followed by casual dining chains (3.2% late night and overnight visit share), likely due to the popularity of 24-hour diners.
This suggests that each dining segment effectively "owns" a different part of the day, from the morning coffee ritual and the quick lunch break to the leisurely evening meal and late-night cravings.
An analysis of average visit duration also reveals a small but lasting shift in post-pandemic dining behavior. Between January and May 2025, the average dwell time for nearly every dining segment was shorter than during the same period in 2019. This efficiency trend is evident across limited-service categories like QSR, fast casual, and coffee shops, suggesting a continued emphasis on speed and convenience.
The one notable exception to this trend is upscale and fine dining, where the average visit duration has actually increased compared to pre-COVID levels. This may suggest that, while visits to most segments have become more transactional, consumers are treating fine dining more as an extended, deliberate experience, reinforcing its position as a destination-worthy occasion.
1. The Midwest is the only region where Black Friday retail visits outpace Super Saturday.
But several major Midwestern markets, including Chicago and Detroit, actually see higher shopper turnout on Super Saturday.
2. Holiday season demographic shifts also vary across regions.
Nationwide, electronics stores see a slight uptick in median household income (HHI) in December – yet in certain markets, electronics retailers such as Best Buy see a drop in captured market median HHI during this period.
3. Back-to-school shopping starts earliest for clothing and office supplies retailers in the South Central region, likely tied to earlier school schedules.
But back-to-school visits surge higher for these retailers in the Northeast later in the season.
4. The share of college students among back-to-school shoppers varies by region.
In August 2024, “Collegians” made up the largest share of Target’s back-to-school shopping crowd in New England, and the smallest in the West.
5. Mother’s Day drives the biggest restaurant visit spikes in the Middle Atlantic Region, while Father’s Day sees its biggest boosts in the South Atlantic states.
Mother’s Day diners also tend to travel farther to celebrate, suggesting an extra effort to treat mom.
6. Western states proved particularly responsive to McDonald’s recent Minecraft promotion.
During the week of A Minecraft Movie’s release, the promotion drove significantly higher visit spikes in the West than in the Eastern U.S.
Retailers rely on promotional events to fuel sales – from classics like Black Friday and back-to-school sales to unique limited-time offers (LTOs) and pop-culture collaborations. Yet consumer preferences and behavior can vary significantly by region, making it critical to tailor campaigns to local markets.
This report dives into the data to reveal how consumers in 2025 are responding to major retail promotions, exploring both broad regional trends and more localized market-level nuances. Where is Black Friday most popular, and which areas see a bigger turnout on Super Saturday? Where are restaurants most packed on Mother’s Day, and where on Father’s Day? Which region kicks off back-to-school shopping – and where are August shoppers most likely to be college students? And also – which part of the country went all out on McDonald’s recent Minecraft LTO?
Read on to find out.
Promotions aimed at boosting foot traffic on key holiday season milestones like Black Friday and Super Saturday are central to retailers’ strategies across industries. The day after Thanksgiving and the Saturday before Christmas typically rank among in-store retail’s busiest days, last year generating foot traffic surges of 50.1% and 56.3%, respectively, compared to a 12-month daily average. And
But a closer look at regional data shows that these promotions land differently across the country. In the Midwest, Black Friday outperformed Super Saturday last year, fueling the nation’s biggest post-Thanksgiving retail visit spike – a testament to the milestone’s strong local appeal. Meanwhile, in the Western U.S. Black Friday trailed well behind Super Saturday, though both milestones drove smaller upticks than in other regions. And in New England and the South Central states, Super Saturday achieved its biggest impact, suggesting that last-minute holiday specials may resonate especially well in that area.
Digging deeper into major Midwestern hubs shows that even within a single region, holiday promotions can produce widely different responses.
In St. Louis, Indianapolis, and Minneapolis, for example, consumers followed the broader Midwestern pattern, flocking to stores on Black Friday exhibiting less enthusiasm for Super Saturday deals. By contrast, Chicago and Detroit saw Super Saturday edge ahead, with Chicago’s Black Friday peak falling below the nationwide average of 50.1%. examples highlight the power of local preferences to shape holiday campaign results.
Holiday promotions don’t just drive visit spikes; they also spark subtle but significant changes in the demographic profiles of brick-and-mortar shoppers, expanding many retailers’ audiences during peak periods. And these shifts, too, can vary widely across regions.
Outlet malls, department stores, and beauty & self-care chains, for instance, which typically attract higher-income consumers, tend to see slight declines in the median household incomes (HHI) of their visitor bases in December. This dip may be due to promotions drawing in more mid- and lower-income shoppers during the peak holiday season. Electronics stores and superstores, on the other hand, which generally serve a less affluent base, see modest upticks in median HHI in the lead-up to Christmas.
But once again, drilling further down into regional chain-level data reveals more nuanced regional patterns. Take Best Buy, a leading holiday season electronics destination. In some of the chain’s biggest, more affluent markets – including New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago – the big-box retailer sees small dips in median HHI during December. But in Atlanta and Houston – also relatively affluent, but slightly less so – December saw a minor HHI uptick, hinting at a stronger holiday rush from higher-income shoppers in those cities.
Back-to-school promotions also play a pivotal role in the retail calendar, with superstores, apparel chains, office supply stores and others all vying for shopper attention. And though summer markdowns drive increased foot traffic nationwide, both the timing of these shifts and the composition of the back-to-school shopping crowd differ among regions.
Analyzing weekly fluctuations in regional foot traffic to clothing and office supplies stores shows, for example, that back-to-school shopping picks up earliest in the South Central region, likely due to earlier school start dates.
But the biggest visit peaks occur in the Northeast – with clothing retailer foot traffic surging in New England in late August, and office supplies stores seeing an even bigger surge in the Middle Atlantic region in early September. Retailers and advertisers can plan their back-to-school deals around these differences, targeting promotions to local trends.
Though K-12 families drive much of the back-to-school rush, college student shoppers also play a substantial role. And here, too, their participation varies by region.
For instance, the “Collegians” segment accounted for 2.2% of Target’s shopper base nationwide over the past year – rising to 3.0% in August 2024. But regionally, the share of “Collegians” soared as high as 4.0% in New England versus just 2.2% in the West. So while retailers in New England may choose to lean into the college vibe, those in Western states may place greater emphasis on families with children.
When it comes to dining, Mother’s Day and Father’s Day are the busiest days of the year for the full-service restaurant (FSR) category, as families treat their parents to a hassle-free meal out. And eateries nationwide capitalize on this trend by offering a variety of deals and promotions that add a little extra charm (and value) to the experience.
Nationwide, Mother’s Day drives more FSR foot traffic than Father’s Day – except in parts of the Pacific Northwest, where Father’s Day traditions run especially deep. Still, the size of these holiday boosts varies substantially by region.
This year, for instance, Mother’s Day (May 11, 2025) drove the largest FSR surge in the Middle Atlantic, with the South Atlantic and Midwest not far behind. Father’s Day, by contrast, saw its biggest lift in the South Atlantic. Mother’s Day proved least resonant in the West, whereas Father’s Day had its smallest impact in New England.
Dining behavior also differs between the two occasions. Mother’s Day celebrants display a slight preference for morning FSR visits and a bigger one for afternoon visits, while Father’s Day crowds favor evenings – perhaps reflecting a preference for sports bars and later dinners with dad. Another interesting nuance: On Mother’s Day, a larger share of FSR visits originate from between 3 and 50 miles away compared to Father’s Day, suggesting that families go the extra mile – sometimes literally – to celebrate mom.
While established dates like Black Friday or Mother’s Day naturally spur promotions, brands can also craft their own moments with limited-time offers (LTOs). And much like holiday campaigns, these retailer-led events can produce varied outcomes across different regions.
Fast food restaurants, for example, have leaned heavily on limited-time offers (LTOs) and pop-culture tie-ins to fuel buzz in what remains a challenging overall market. And McDonald’s recent Minecraft promotion, launched on April 1, 2025 to coincide with the April 3 release of A Minecraft Move, shows just how impactful the practice can be.
Nationally, the Minecraft promotion (featuring offerings for both kids and adults) drove a 6.9% lift in visits during the movie’s opening week. But the impact of the promotion was far from uniform across the U.S. Many of McDonald’s Western markets – including Utah, Idaho, Nevada, California, Texas, Arizona, Colorado, and Oregon – recorded visit lifts above 10.0%. Meanwhile, Kentucky saw a 2.1% dip, and several other Eastern states registered modest gains below 3.0%. The McDonald’s example illustrates the power of regional tastes to shape the success of even the most creative pop-culture collabs.
Whether it’s properly timing holiday and back-to-school discounts, recognizing where Mother’s Day or Father’s Day will resonate more, or pinpointing markets that respond best to pop-culture tie-ins, the data reveals that effective promotions depend heavily on local nuances. And by analyzing regional and DMA-level trends, retailers and advertisers can craft compelling, relevant campaigns that heighten engagement where it matters most.
1. Experiential and niche retailers can deliver anchor-level traffic. At Towne East Square Mall, the addition of a Scheels in 2023 significantly increased foot traffic and long-distance travelers, while Barnes & Noble at Coronado Center in Albuquerque has become a key driver of both foot traffic and higher-spend demographics.
2. Size isn’t everything – especially for dining venues. At Glendale Galleria and Northridge Fashion Center, smaller restaurants attracted more foot traffic than some traditional anchors.
3. Refocusing on tenants’ actual traffic contributions enables a flexible anchor approach. Balancing weekend draws like Scheels with weekday favorites such as Costco or Chick-fil-A can help maintain steady visitor flow throughout the week. Similarly, onsite fitness clubs can shift traffic to earlier in the day – an opportunity to adjust store hours and capture additional morning shoppers.
4. Temporary pop-ups can form an integral part of a visit-focused anchor strategy. The Barbie Dreamhouse Living Truck Tour generates mall visit spikes well above typical Saturday levels. Operators can integrate these events into their overall anchor strategies, offering preferential terms to high-performing pop-ups.
5. New tenants can boost traffic for existing stores in similar categories. After Aldi joined Green Acres Commons in February 2020, visits to an existing BJ’s Wholesale Club trended upwards. This synergy highlights how overlapping audiences can become a strength, creating a larger overall customer base.
Malls, it seems, are cool once again. After languishing in the wake of the pandemic, shopping centers across the country are thriving – reinventing themselves as prime “third places” where people can hang out, shop, and grab a bite to eat.
One key driver behind this resurgence is a shift in how malls view their anchor tenants. While traditional mainstays like Macy’s and JCPenney still play an important role, specialized offerings – from popular eateries to fitness centers and immersive retailtainment destinations – are increasingly taking center stage. These attractions maximize the experiential value that brick-and-mortar venues can deliver, driving visits and sales for the center as a whole.
Against this backdrop, this report leverages the latest location intelligence data to explore the types of tenants that can function as mall anchors in 2025. Should mall operators still focus on general merchandisers to draw crowds, or can dining chains and more niche retailers also do the job? How important is square footage in identifying the anchor-like tenants in a shopping center? And how can a visit-focused approach help mall operators select effective anchor or anchor-like tenants – whether to fill big-box spaces or to leverage the leasing perks traditionally reserved for major large-format chains?
One of the most important functions of a mall anchor is to ensure steady visitation – providing its smaller tenants with a constant flow of potential customers. And as the role of the mall continues to evolve, analyzing the actual foot traffic impacts of different types of businesses can help identify the kinds of non-traditional anchors best suited to fulfill that purpose.
Experiential venues, for example, are particularly well-poised to serve as powerful anchors in today’s retail environment – as illustrated by the visit surge experienced by Towne East Square Mall in Wichita, KS following the addition of a Scheels in July 2023.
By blending traditional retail with immersive experiences, Scheels has emerged as a true experiential destination. And this pull has also helped the mall draw more long-distance visitors willing to travel to enjoy Scheels’ offerings. In 2024, 41.9% of the mall’s customers traveled more than 50 miles to visit, compared to 35.8% back in 2018 when Sears occupied the same lot.
Traditionally, anchors aimed to please the widest possible audiences – with department stores, big-box chains, and grocery stores leading the way. But visitation data shows that niche concepts can also deliver anchor-level traffic if they’re compelling enough to attract dedicated fans.
The experience of the Barnes & Noble at Coronado Center in Albuquerque, NM is a case in point. After being written off as all but obsolete, Barnes & Noble has staged an impressive comeback in recent years, finding success through a more curated, localized approach to book selling. And despite not being a formal anchor, the Coronado Center Barnes & Noble accounted for 7.9% of visits to the mall in 2024 – outperforming both Macy’s and JCPenney.
Year-over-year data also shows foot traffic surging at the Coronado Center Barnes & Noble, lifting overall visitation to the mall. And demographic data reveals that the bookstore draws a more affluent audience than either the center as a whole or the two department stores – attracting a crowd with more spending power.
This example also illustrates how smaller tenants can sometimes draw larger crowds. Even though Barnes & Noble occupies a smaller onsite space than either Macy’s or JCPenney, it is proving a powerful visit driver out of proportion to its physical size.
Dining chains are also adept at punching above their square footage – often attracting crowds disproportionate to their size.
Despite its relatively small footprint, for example, the In-N-Out Burger at Glendale Galleria drew an impressive 8.6% of visits to the mall complex in 2024, outpacing some of the mall’s official anchors like DICK’s Sporting Goods, Macy’s, and JCPenney. Still, the onsite Target drew even larger crowds at 14.4% of visits.
A similar pattern emerged at Northridge Fashion Center, where Porto’s Bakery and Cafe captured a notable 15.6% of visits to the complex in 2024 – more than some of the center’s traditional department stores.
These examples underscore the potential for dining chains, which typically require less space, to serve as micro-anchors by consistently attracting outsized crowds – a key consideration for mall operators looking to sustain visitor traffic.
Refocusing on tenants’ actual foot traffic contributions also opens the door to a more flexible and dynamic approach to anchor selection and management – one that considers each venue’s unique visitation patterns.
Seasonal factors, for example, can make certain anchors more powerful at specific times of the year, while different venues shine on particular days of the week.
At Jordan Creek Town Center in West Des Moines, Iowa, for instance, Scheels and Costco each delivered just under 20.0% of the complex’s overall visits in 2024. But the two retailers’ daily patterns differed significantly: Scheels saw bigger crowds on weekends, while Costco was the primary weekday destination.
Understanding differences like these can help operators optimize their tenant mix to maintain a balanced flow of shoppers throughout the week.
Another example of the impact of differing weekday traffic patterns is offered by the impact of mall-based Chick-fil-A locations on the distribution of mall visits throughout the week.
Despite its relatively small size, Chick-fil-A draws substantial traffic to malls. And after adding Chick-fil-A locations, both Northridge and Miller Hill Malls saw meaningful drops in the share of visits to the centers taking place on Sundays – even as the wider indoor mall segment saw slight upticks.
Recognizing this trend could prompt mall operators to compensate by adding more weekend-friendly traffic drivers – or to lean into this distinction by taking additional steps to bolster the mall’s role as a go-to weekday destination.
The power of different mall traffic magnets also varies throughout the day. Increasingly, shopping centers are turning to fitness centers as experiential anchors. And since many people work out early in the morning, these gyms are having a significant impact on the distribution of mall visits across dayparts.
The addition of gyms to Northshore Mall in Peabody, MA and Jackson Crossing in Jackson, MI, for instance, led to a significant rise in visits between 7:00 AM and noon. And though the rest of the stores in these malls typically open at 10:00 or 11:00 AM, this shift presents the centers with a significant opportunity.
By adjusting opening hours to accommodate these early-morning patrons, malls can capitalize on this added traffic, driving up visits and sales for relevant tenants – especially health-focused retailers such as juice bars and sporting goods stores.
Adopting a broader, visit-focused view of anchoring also allows mall operators to apply some of the strategies typically reserved for anchors to non-conventional traffic-generating businesses, to ensure a consistent flow of traffic year-round.
Pop-up stores and events, for example, generally don’t follow the same seasonal trends as other retailers – instead, they generate short-term visit boosts during their runs, whenever in the year that may be. And a visit-focused anchor strategy can leverage some of the perks traditionally reserved for anchor tenants – such as preferential leasing terms – to complement traditional full-time anchors during slower retail periods.
The Barbie Dreamhouse Living Truck Tour is a prime example of a traffic-driving pop-up. By bringing exclusive merchandise to malls across the U.S., the truck generates plenty of buzz, drawing crowds eager to snatch up limited-edition items and immerse themselves in all things Barbie. As a result, malls hosting the tour often see significant visit spikes, with foot traffic surging well above typical Saturday levels. Well-timed pop-ups like these can help balance out traffic throughout the year, offsetting traditional slow periods.
A visit-focused approach to anchor management can also help mall operators assess the potential impact of new tenants on existing stores operating in similar categories. For example, mall owners often worry that new tenants operating in similar categories might cannibalize existing businesses. But a visit-focused anchor approach reveals that a well-chosen addition can sometimes benefit current tenants – especially if they cater to similar audiences.
In February 2020, for instance, value supermarket Aldi opened at Green Acres Commons in Valley Stream, NY – a center that already hosted budget-friendly BJ’s Wholesale Club. While BJ’s visits were relatively flat in 2018 and 2019, they began to rise after Aldi’s opening (and following a pandemic-induced dip). Cross-shopping data also shows that Aldi customers were more likely to visit BJ’s than the average Green Acres patron last year.
This synergy may be due in part to the two retailers’ similar visitor bases: In 2024, the Aldi and BJ’s stores in Green Acres Common drew shoppers with comparable economic profiles. This suggests that overlapping audiences can become a strength if aligned brands attract new shoppers, who then explore multiple stores in the same center.
Looking ahead, effective mall anchors will be defined less by physical footprint and more by their capacity to maintain consistent, valuable foot traffic. While traditional department stores remain pivotal, smaller or niche brands can often rival – or surpass – large-format retailers. And by thinking out of the anchor box and choosing tenants that cultivate a balanced visitor flow and align with local preferences, operators can position their centers as true go-to destinations.
