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This year has posed challenges for limited-service dining chains as inflation and higher prices continued to weigh on consumer traffic. We analyzed visitation trends in 2025 so far across major segments to better understand which categories are holding up – and which may need to adjust strategies.
This year brought significant challenges for the limited-service dining industry, as persistent price increases kept many would-be diners at home. Even industry giants like McDonald’s reported declines in same-store sales as lower- and middle-income consumers pulled back spending. Yet several categories, including the ever-impressive chicken segment, managed to buck the trend.
The chart below highlights the differences in YoY foot traffic for major limited service dining concepts in H1 2025. Pizza, burger, and sandwich chains experienced declines, while coffee, chicken, and Mexican-inspired concepts emerged as the growth drivers in terms of overall visit increases.
These segments were likely aided by aggressive unit expansion and consumer preferences shifting toward more affordable, customizable, and protein-forward options. Coffee continues to hold steady as a daily staple, while chicken and Mexican-inspired operators are capturing demand for protein-forward and customizable formats.
However, per-location data tempers this growth narrative. Visits per store declined across every major category – even those with overall visit increases – indicating that expansion may be outpacing underlying demand and pushing the segment toward potential oversaturation.
Recent summer data underscores the cautionary signals. Year-over-year traffic growth for coffee, chicken, and Mexican-inspired concepts was weaker in July than in the first half of the year. By August, declines had spread across nearly every category – with chicken chains in particular seeing a dip in traffic and an even steeper drop in average visits per location – leaving coffee as the only segment to sustain growth.
This broader slowdown in limited-service dining, combined with persistent economic uncertainty, suggests that consumers may be scaling back restaurant spending – even in categories traditionally viewed as more budget-friendly.
While 2025 has been marked by volatility, the underlying consumer appetite for convenient, protein-forward, and customizable dining is helping some limited-service segments stay ahead of the pack. Still, visit per location data suggests that expansion plans may need to be put on ice for the next few quarters.
Instead, operators that focus on menu innovation, building loyalty, and driving higher output per store stand to capture demand when economic pressures ease. As confidence rebounds, concepts that have expanded strategically may be especially well positioned to benefit from renewed consumer traffic.
For the most up-to-date dining data, check out Placer.ai’s free tools.
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more.
After a strong spring for mall traffic, momentum slowed over the summer. As the chart below shows, visits in June declined year-over-year across all three formats, while July and August traffic leveled off.
Yet, even in this softer environment, indoor malls stood out as the only format to register growth – albeit modest – in both July and August. At the same time, outlet malls managed to close their YoY visit gap, likely buoyed by families looking to save on back-to-school shopping. This trend also points to the potential for a rebound in the format, as consumers’ growing focus on value continues to shape shopping behaviors in new ways.
A softer Labor Day capped off the slower summer, with slight dips in visits across all three mall formats compared to Labor Day weekend 2024 (though indoor malls continued to lead with the smallest YoY visit gap). Outlet malls saw the biggest drop, which combined with their flat August performance, suggests that shoppers frequented outlets earlier in the month rather than holding off for Labor Day promotions.
Taken together, these trends indicate that the summer slowdown was not simply the result of consumers holding back for holiday sales. Instead, with sentiment weakening, shoppers appear to be reducing discretionary purchases that typically drive mall traffic, or looking for better value on a routine basis rather than waiting for special sales.
The decline in average mall visit length offers another indicator of softening consumer sentiment and a cutting back on discretionary purchases. Visit length plummeted over the pandemic as consumers tried to limit their time spent in enclosed spaces, but the average visit duration to malls rose in 2023 and again in 2024 – suggesting that malls were slowly regaining their role as destinations for leisure, dining, and extended shopping trips.
The drop in August 2025, however, signals a reversal of that momentum, perhaps reflecting heightened consumer caution and a renewed focus on efficiency and essentials over browsing and discretionary spending.
Malls’ strong visitation trends just a few months ago caution against drawing overly dire conclusions, and the softer summer may represent a temporary reset rather than a lasting shift. Seasonal headwinds, travel, and consumer caution likely weighed on recent performance, while the steady resilience of indoor malls points to enduring shopper demand for in-person experiences. Outlet malls' success in closing their visit gap also adds reason for optimism.
The upcoming holiday season offers malls a chance to regain momentum and recapture consumer attention. While recent trends highlight caution and shorter visit durations, they also underscore consumers’ growing appetite for value and convenience – dynamics that indoor and outlet malls are uniquely positioned to meet. By pairing value-driven promotions with engaging experiences and festive activations, malls can reassert their role as destinations not just for shopping, but for leisure and community during the holidays. This combination positions shopping centers to benefit from seasonal demand, even as consumers remain more selective with discretionary spending.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Placer.ai leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations for visits to locations across the US. The data is trusted by thousands of industry leaders who leverage Placer.ai for insights into foot traffic, demographic breakdowns, retail sale predictions, migration trends, site selection, and more
After a period of robust growth following COVID, the eatertainment sector has slowed. Rising prices and economic uncertainty have led many consumers to tighten their budgets, cutting back on discretionary activities. But Q2 2025 data points to an emerging trend that could reshape the industry's trajectory: unlimited-play subscription models that drive repeat visits to major chains.
Eatertainment’s leading brands have followed very different trajectories since 2019. Topgolf and Dave & Buster’s expanded significantly after COVID, driving overall visits above 2019 levels and outperforming the broader full-service restaurant (FSR) segment. By Q2 2025, Topgolf’s systemwide foot traffic was up 59.2% compared to the same period in 2019, while Dave & Buster’s overall visits rose 7.1%. However, both chains began to slow at the unit level in 2022 as inflation weighed on household budgets.
Chuck E. Cheese, meanwhile, shuttered dozens of locations after its 2020 bankruptcy. But in mid-2024, the brand’s systemwide and per-location visits began rebounding significantly, surpassing even the broader FSR segment by Q1 2025.
Chuck E. Cheese’s resurgence can be traced to a revamped Summer Fun Pass program launched in the summer of 2024. By offering unlimited play, the company drove a dramatic increase in repeat visits – and the model proved so successful that the company extended it year-round, fueling sustained visit growth that continued into 2025.
Between March and May 2025, per-location visits to Chuck E. Cheese surged 17.6% to 23.0% year over year (YoY), before stabilizing in June and July as the chain began lapping its extraordinary 2024 performance. Importantly, this plateau doesn’t indicate decline – instead, it highlights Chuck E. Cheese’s ability to maintain traffic levels that seemed unimaginable just two years ago.
Chuck E. Cheese’s loyalty surge also shows no signs of abating. In June 2024 12.0% of visitors came in at least twice during the month – up from 7.2% to 8.0% the previous summer. And although repeat visitation dipped somewhat when school resumed in the fall, it remained elevated YoY and rebounded again this summer.
Topgolf has long relied on expansion to drive growth. But even as overall foot traffic has continued surging past pre-COVID benchmarks, visits per location began declining in 2022.
Recent data, however, suggests this dynamic is shifting. Since May, the chain has posted high single-digit per-location YoY growth – a clear indicator of unit-level recovery. And though same-venue sales still fell 6.0% last quarter, the company raised its guidance, signaling an improved outlook.
Here too, loyalty metrics point to the central role of Topgolf’s revived Summer Fun Pass in reigniting traffic by offering value-conscious consumers more affordable access to its premium experience. Though the gains are smaller than those seen by Chuck E. Cheese’s, they still mark a meaningful step in Topgolf’s recovery.
Dave & Buster’s flagship chain continues to lag peers on YoY visitation, with Q2 2025 traffic below 2024 levels. Still, visit data for May to July 2025 points to an improving trend, aligning with the company’s recent report of better comp sales in June.
Once again, progress appears tied to a new subscription model – Dave & Buster’s first-ever Summer Season Pass. Priced similarly to last year’s new Winter Pass, but timed to coincide with school and college vacations, the summer program significantly boosted repeat visits and strengthened customer engagement. And although per-location traffic at Dave & Buster’s remains a challenge, the brand’s growing loyalty base and expanding footprint give it a foundation for steady, sustainable growth.
Much like gym memberships, affordable flat fees for gameplay at eatertainment venues allow budget-conscious consumers to stretch their dollars by visiting more often. And these subscription-based models appear to be resonating with consumers in 2025.
But the model comes with its own challenges. For Chuck E. Cheese, Topgolf, and Dave & Buster’s, the key test will be turning higher visitation into greater spend. Converting traffic gains into food, beverage, and event revenue – without eroding margins – will ultimately determine whether subscription-driven loyalty can deliver sustainable long-term growth.
For more data-driven consumer insights, visit placer.ai/anchor.
Starbucks launched its latest fall menu on August 26th, 2025, which included the fan-favorite Pumpkin Spice Latte (PSL). How did the return of the anticipated beverage impact visits this year? We dove into the data to find out.
The fall menu launch and PSL return drove significant visit spikes to Starbucks, as shown in the chart below. And traffic on this year's PSL launch was nearly identical to 2024 levels – highlighting the remarkable consistency of the seasonal offering that has now become a cultural staple. The ability of the PSL to drive traffic at scale – even after two decades – underscores its unique role in Starbucks' playbook.
While the PSL's appeal is coast-to-coast, enthusiasm varies geographically.
The map below plots the increase in Starbucks visits on the launch of the fall menu compared to each state's pre-fall menu launch daily average. The Mountain region emerged as this year's PSL epicenter: Utah led the nation with a traffic surge of over 40% above its daily average, with neighboring states like Colorado, Idaho, and Nevada also showing exceptional gains. The Midwest and Appalachia, including West Virginia and Kentucky, followed with their own impressive double-digit increases.
By contrast, increases were more muted in the Northeast and Southeast, with single-digit visit growth in Louisiana, Mississippi, Georgia, New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire. Together, these patterns reveal both the universal draw of Starbucks’ seasonal offerings and the regional nuances that shape consumer response.
While competitors like Dunkin' and Dutch Bros. also leverage seasonal menus to attract customers, their launch-day boosts don't match the scale of the PSL phenomenon, as shown in the chart below. Starbucks has successfully transformed a menu update into a highly anticipated cultural moment that competitors struggle to replicate.
This data suggests that Starbucks' fall launch doesn't just boost its own traffic – it sets the benchmark for the entire industry. The brand’s ability to blend product innovation with cultural relevance reinforces its position as the undisputed leader in the seasonal beverage market.
The data from the 2025 fall menu launch suggests that the Pumpkin Spice Latte is far more than a seasonal beverage; it is one of Starbucks' most reliable and defensible strategic assets. The popular LTO provides a predictable traffic and revenue anchor, transforming the fall menu and the PSL at its center into a reliable financial instrument that widens the company's competitive advantage.
Ultimately, the enduring success of the PSL highlights Starbucks' mastery in transforming a product into a cultural tradition, proving that the most powerful driver of consumer behavior isn't just the product itself, but the anticipation and ritual built around it.
For more data-driven insights, visit placer.ai/anchor
Secondhand shopping has emerged as a major storyline this season amid potential tariff-driven apparel price hikes – but foot traffic data shows that thrifting's move into the mainstream has been years in the making. We dove into the data to assess the state of the thrift store segment in 2025 and explore what’s driving its continued momentum.
Thrift store foot traffic has been on an impressive upward trajectory since COVID. In Q2 2025, visits were up 39.5% compared to Q2 2019 – far exceeding the 9.5% growth seen across the broader clothing industry.
This visit growth advantage reflects a mix of factors, including heightened economic pressures and sustainability concerns. In addition, while much apparel shopping has shifted online – and digital resale platforms like ThredUp are gaining traction – thrifting remains inherently experiential and in-person.
Thrifting’s unique seasonality also highlights its important role in the consumer shopping cycle. As the chart below illustrates, conventional apparel peaks during the holiday shopping season (Q4) while thrift stores hit their stride in summer (Q3) – likely buoyed by warm-weather wardrobe refreshes and back-to-school shopping.
A closer look at year-over-year (YoY) trends show industry-wide thrift store visit increases outpacing per-location gains, suggesting that the segment’s growth is partly driven by store openings. Yet established locations are thriving too, with average visits per location continuing to rise even against last year’s strong benchmarks.
This dual pattern – new stores bringing in additional shoppers while established locations continue to grow – shows that thrifting’s momentum reflects true market expansion rather than merely a redistribution of demand.
Demographic data also points to thrifting’s ongoing move into the mainstream. The median household income of areas feeding visits to thrift stores has risen steadily since 2019, signaling a significant broadening of these stores' customer base beyond their traditional lower-income demographic.
Geographically, thrift shopping has also expanded beyond its urban roots. The share of visits from rural, semi-rural, and suburban communities has climbed consistently over the past six years, making secondhand shopping a fixture of consumer culture across regions and income levels.
With potential tariffs threatening to raise the cost of imported clothing, continued economic pressures, and rising demand for sustainable alternatives, thrift stores appear poised to thrive well into the future. Will secondhand visits climb to new highs this summer?
Follow Placer.ai/anchor to find out.
Whether it’s a family picnic, a romantic stroll, or a casual jog, local parks have long been woven into the fabric of American life. In recent years, however, when and how people use these green spaces has shifted in important ways.
Using Placer.ai’s index of 3,000 local parks (i.e., smaller parks within cities, towns, and suburbs and excluding national and state parks), we analyzed visitation patterns over the past year and compared them to pre-COVID baselines. The results reveal not only a steady rise in park traffic, but also meaningful changes in how Americans engage with these public spaces.
Visits to local parks have steadily increased since 2019 as shown in the graph below – reflecting a sustained post-pandemic shift toward outdoor activities.
But the data also shows an interesting seasonal shift. Unsurprisingly, park visits tend to peak in spring and summer (Q2 and Q3), and drop in winter. But whereas in 2019 and 2021, Q3 slightly outperformed Q2, this trend began to reverse in 2022 – and over the past three years, spring and early summer have consistently outpaced the July to September period. Additionally, while Q2 visits have grown year after year, Q3 visits began to decline in 2024 – and July 2025 data suggests the trend may be continuing.
The shift, though subtle, may be tied to extreme summer heat waves in recent years – but it remains to be seen if this pattern will hold long-term.
Beyond sheer numbers, how people use parks is also changing. Since 2019, the share of visits lasting under 30 minutes has dropped, while visits over 30 minutes have increased – pointing to more intentional, extended outings that may include picnics, sports, or social gatherings.
At the same time, the share of weekday and early-day visits have declined, while weekend and evening visits have grown. This suggests that park trips are increasingly seen as dedicated leisure activities – part of people’s weekend plans rather than casual, quick visits.
Meanwhile, analyzing parks' trade areas indicates a subtle but significant shift in the demographic profiles of park-goers.
In both 2018/9 and 2024/5, park visitors tended to come from relatively affluent areas, with median household incomes (HHIs) above the nationwide average of $79.6K. But the analyzed period saw a modest but significant decline in the median HHI of parks’ trade areas. indicating a broadening of the audience making use of these spaces.
This shift was accompanied by an increase in the participation of families with children – further evidence of the emergence of local parks as communal, family-oriented spaces.
The growth in visitation along with the shifts in timing, duration, and demography carry important implications for local governments and park planners – and understanding these trends can help cities serve their communities and allocate relevant resources more effectively.
For example, with weekend visitation on the rise, cities could plan more park events on Saturdays and Sundays to maximize attendance and community engagement. In addition, more weekend visitors may require expanded parking, public transport options, or bike access to accommodate higher demand.
The growth in later and longer park visits may also suggest a greater need for improved evening amenities, such as better lighting for safety and extended hours for public facilities. Longer visits could also mean higher demand for seating, shaded areas, restrooms, and refreshment vendors. And more families with children could drive demand for enhanced playground equipment, family-friendly programming, and child safety features.
By aligning park services with these evolving patterns, local governments can better serve residents, attract more visitors, and make the most of the growing enthusiasm for outdoor public spaces.
For more up-to-date insights into population movement and civic trends, explore our free migration tool.
1. Appetite for offline retail & dining is stronger than ever. Both retail and dining visits were higher in H1 2025 than they were pre-pandemic.
2. Consumers are willing to go the extra mile for the perfect product or brand. The era of one-stop-shops may be waning, as many consumers now prefer to visit multiple chains or stores to score the perfect product match for every item on their shopping list.
3. Value – and value perception – gives chains a clear advantage. Value-oriented retail and dining segments have seen their visits skyrocket since the pandemic.
4. Consumer behavior has bifurcated toward budget and premium options. This trend is driving strength at the ends of the spectrum while putting pressure on many middle-market players.
5. The out-of-home entertainment landscape has been fundamentally altered. Eatertainment and museums have stabilized at a different set point than pre-COVID, while movie theater traffic trends are now characterized by box-office-driven volatility.
6. Hybrid work permanently reshaped office utilization. Visits to office buildings nationwide are still 33.3% below 2019 levels, despite RTO efforts.
The first half of 2025 marked five years since the onset of the pandemic – an event that continues to impact retail, dining, entertainment, and office visitation trends today.
This report analyzes visitation patterns in the first half of 2025 compared to H1 2019 and H1 2024 to identify some of the lasting shifts in consumer behavior over the past five years. What is driving consumers to stores and dining venues? Which categories are stabilizing at a higher visit point? Where have the traffic declines stalled? And which segments are still in flux? Read the report to find out.
In the first half of 2025, visits to both the retail and dining segments were consistently higher than they were in 2019. In both the dining and the retail space, the increases compared to pre-COVID were probably driven by significant expansions from major players, including Costco, Chick-fil-A, Raising Cane's, and Dutch Bros, which offset the numerous retail and dining closures of recent years.
The overall increase in visits indicates that, despite the ubiquity of online marketplaces and delivery services, consumer appetite for offline retail and dining remains strong – whether to browse in store, eat on-premises, collect a BOPIS order, or pick up takeaway.
A closer look at the chart above also reveals that, while both retail and dining visits have exceeded pre-pandemic levels, retail visit growth has slightly outpaced the dining traffic increase.
The larger volume of retail visits could be due to a shift in consumer behavior – from favoring convenience to prioritizing the perfect product match and exhibiting a willingness to visit multiple chains to benefit from each store's signature offering. Indeed, zooming into the superstore and grocery sector shows an increase in cross-shopping since COVID, with a larger share of visitors to major grocery chains regularly visiting superstores and wholesale clubs. It seems, then, that many consumers are no longer looking for a one-stop-shop where they can buy everything at once. Instead, shoppers may be heading to the grocery stores for some things, the dollar store for other items, and the wholesale club for a third set of products.
This trend also explains the success of limited assortment grocers in recent years – shoppers are willing to visit these stores to pick up their favorite snack or a particularly cheap store-branded basic, knowing that this will be just one of several stops on their grocery run.
Diving into the traffic data by retail category reveals that much of the growth in retail visits since COVID can be attributed to the surge in visits to value-oriented categories, such as discount & dollar stores, value grocery stores, and off-price apparel. This period has been defined by an endless array of economic obstacles like inflation, recession concerns, gas price spikes, and tariffs that all trigger an orientation to value. The shift also speaks to an ability of these categories to capitalize on swings – consumers who visited value-oriented retailers to cut costs in the short term likely continued visiting those chains even after their economic situation stabilized.
Some of the visit increases are due to the aggressive expansion strategies of leaders in those categories – including Dollar General and Dollar Tree, Aldi, and all the off-price leaders. But the dramatic increase in traffic – around 30% for all three categories since H1 2019 – also highlights the strong appetite for value-oriented offerings among today's consumers. And zooming into YoY trends shows that the visit growth is still ongoing, indicating that the demand for value has not yet reached a ceiling.
While affordable pricing has clearly driven success for value retailers, offering low prices isn't a guaranteed path to growth. Although traffic to beauty and wellness chains remains significantly higher than in 2019, this growth has now plateaued – even top performers like Ulta saw slight YoY declines following their post-pandemic surge – despite the relatively affordable price points found at these chains.
Some of the beauty visit declines likely stems from consumers cutting discretionary spending – but off-price apparel's ongoing success in the same non-essential category suggests budget constraints aren't the full story. Instead, the plateauing of beauty and drugstore visits while off-price apparel visits boom may be due to the difference in value perception: Off-price retailers are inherently associated with savings, while drugstores and beauty retailers, despite carrying affordable items, lack that same value-driven brand positioning. This may suggest that in today's market, perceived value matters as much as actual affordability.
Another indicator of the importance of value perception is the decline in visits to chains selling bigger-ticket items – both home furnishing chains and electronic stores saw double-digit drops in traffic since H1 2019.
And looking at YoY trends shows that visits here have stabilized – like in the beauty and drugstore categories – suggesting that these sectors have reached a new baseline that reflects permanently shifted consumer priorities around discretionary spending.
A major post-pandemic consumer trend has been the bifurcation of consumer spending – with high-end chains and discount retailers thriving while the middle falls behind. This trend is particularly evident in the apparel space – although off-price visits have taken off since 2019 (as illustrated in the earlier graph) overall apparel traffic declined dramatically – while luxury apparel traffic is 7.6% higher than in 2019.
Dining traffic trends also illustrate this shift: Categories that typically offer lower price points such as QSR, fast casual, and coffee have expanded significantly since 2019, as has the upscale & fine dining segment. But casual dining – which includes classic full-service chains such as Red Lobster, Applebee's, and TGI Fridays – has seen its footprint shrink in recent years as consumers trade down to lower-priced options or visit higher-end venues for special occasions.
Chili's has been a major exception to the casual dining downturn, largely driven by the chain's success in cementing its value-perception among consumers – suggesting that casual dining chains can still shine in the current climate by positioning themselves as leaders in value.
Consumers' current value orientation seems to be having an impact beyond the retail and dining space: When budgets are tight, spending money in one place means having less money to spend in another – and recent data suggests that the consumer resilience in retail and dining may be coming at the expense of travel – or perhaps experiences more generally.
While airport visits from domestic travelers were up compared to pre-COVID, diving into the data reveals that the growth is mostly driven by frequent travelers visiting airports two or more times in a month. Meanwhile, the number of more casual travelers – those visiting airports no more than once a month – is lower than it was in 2019.
This may suggest that – despite consumers' self-reported preferences for "memorable, shareable moments" – at least some Americans are actually de-prioritizing experiences in the first half of 2025, and choosing instead to spend their budgets in retail and dining venues.
The out of home entertainment landscape has also undergone a significant change since COVID – and the sector seems to have settled into a new equilibrium, though for part of the sector, the equilibrium is marked by consistent volatility.
Eatertainment chains – led by significant expansions from venues like Top Golf – saw a 5.5% visit increase compared to pre-pandemic levels, though YoY growth remained modest at 1.1%. On the other hand, H1 2025 museum traffic fell 10.9% below 2019 levels with flat YoY performance (+0.2%). The minimal year-over-year changes in both categories suggest that these entertainment segments have found their new post-COVID equilibrium.
The rise of eatertainment alongside the drop in museum visits may also reflect the intense focus on value for today's consumers. Museums in 2025 offer essentially the same value proposition that they offered in 2019 – and for some, that value proposition may no longer justify the entrance fee. But eatertainment has gained popularity in recent years as a format that offers consumers more bang for their buck relative to stand-alone dining or entertainment venues – which makes it the perfect candidate for success in today's value-driven consumer landscape.
But movie theaters traffic trends are still evolving – even accounting for venue closures, visits in H1 2025 were well below H1 2019 levels. But compared to 2024, movie traffic was also up – buoyed by the release of several blockbusters that drove audiences back to cinemas in the first half of 2025. So while the segment is still far from its pre-COVID baseline, movie theaters retain the potential for significant traffic spikes when compelling content drives consumer demand.
The blockbuster-driven YoY increase can perhaps also be linked to consumers' spending caution. With budgets tight, movie-goers may want to make sure that they're spending time and money on films they are sure to enjoy – taking fewer risks than they did in 2019, when movie tickets and concession prices were lower and consumers were less budget-conscious.
H1 2025 also brought some moderate good news on the return to office (RTO) front, with YoY visits nationwide up 2.1% and most offices seeing YoY office visit increases – perhaps due to the plethora of RTO mandates from major companies. But comparing office visitation levels to pre pandemic levels highlights the way left to go – nationwide visits were 33.3% below H1 2019 levels in H1 2025, with even RTO leaders New York and Miami still seeing 11.9% and 16.1% visit gaps, respectively.
So while the data suggests that the office recovery story is still being written – with visits inching up slowly – the substantial gap from pre-pandemic levels suggests that remote and hybrid work models have fundamentally reshaped office utilization patterns.
Five years post-pandemic, consumer behavior across the retail, dining, entertainment, and office spaces has crystallized into distinct new patterns.
Traffic to retail and dining venues now surpasses pre-pandemic levels, driven primarily by value-focused segments. But retail and dining segments that cater to higher income consumers –such as luxury apparel and fine dining – have also stabilized at a higher level, highlighting the bifurcation of consumer behavior that has emerged in recent years. Entertainment formats show more variability – while eatertainment traffic has settled above and museums below 2019 levels, and movie theaters still seeking stability. Office spaces remain the laggard, with visits well below pre-pandemic levels despite corporate return-to-office initiatives showing modest impact.
It seems, then, that the new consumer landscape rewards businesses that can clearly articulate their value proposition to attract consumers' increasingly selective spending and time allocation – or offer a premium product or experience catering to higher-income audiences.
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1. Overall dining traffic is mostly flat, but growth is concentrated in specific areas.
While nationwide dining visits were nearly unchanged in early 2025, western states like Utah, Idaho, and Nevada showed moderate growth, while states in the Midwest and South, along with Washington D.C., saw declines.
2. Fine dining and coffee chains are growing through expansion, not just busier locations.
These two segments were the only ones to see an increase in total visits, but their visits-per-location actually decreased, indicating that opening new stores is the primary driver of their growth.
3. Higher-income diners are driving the growth in resilient categories.
The segments that saw visit growth—fine dining and coffee—also attracted customers with the highest median household incomes, suggesting that affluent consumers are still spending on dining despite economic headwinds.
4. Remote work continues to reshape dining habits.
The share of suburban customers at fine dining establishments has increased since 2019, while it has decreased for coffee chains. This reflects a shift towards "destination" dining closer to home and away from commute-based coffee runs.
5. Limited-service restaurants own the weekdays; full-service restaurants win the weekend.
QSR, fast casual, and coffee chains see the majority of their traffic from Monday to Friday, whereas casual and fine dining see a significant spike in visits on weekends.
6. Each dining segment dominates a specific time of day.
Consumer visits are highly predictable by the hour: coffee leads in the early morning, fast casual peaks at lunch, casual dining takes the afternoon, fine dining owns the dinner slot, and QSR captures the late-night crowd.
Overall dining visits held relatively steady in the first five months of 2025, with year-over-year (YoY) visits to the category down 0.5% for January to May 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Most of the country saw slight declines (less than 2.0%), though some states and districts experienced larger drops: Washington, D.C, saw the largest visit gap (-3.6% YoY), followed by Kansas and North Dakota (-2.9%), Arkansas (-2.8%), Missouri and Kentucky (-2.6%), Oklahoma (-2.1%), and Louisiana (-2.0%).
Still, there were several pockets of moderate dining strength, specifically in the west of the United States. January to May 2025 dining visits in Utah, Idaho, and Nevada increased 1.8% to 2.4% YoY, while the coastal states saw traffic rise 0.6% (California) to 1.2% (Washington). Vermont also saw a slight increase in dining visits (+1.9%).
Diving into visit trends by dining segment shows that fine dining and coffee saw the strongest overall visit trends, with visits to the segments up 1.3% and 2.6% YoY, respectively, between January and May 2025. But visits per location trends were negative for both segments – a decline of 0.8% YoY for fine dining and 1.8% for coffee during the period – suggesting that much of the visit strength is due to expansions rather than more crowded restaurants and coffee shops.
In contrast, full-service casual dining saw overall visits decrease by 1.5%, while visits per location remained stable (+0.2%) YoY between January and May 2025. Several casual dining chains have rightsized in the past twelve months – including Red Lobster, TGI Fridays, and Outback Steakhouse – which impacted overall visit numbers. But the data seems to show that their rightsizing was effective, as the remaining locations successfully absorbed the traffic and maintained performance levels from the previous year. And the monthly data also provides much reason for optimism, with May traffic up both overall and on a visit per location basis – suggesting that the casual dining segment is well positioned for growth in the second half of 2025.
Meanwhile, QSR and fast casual chains saw similar minor visits per venue dips (-1.5% and -1.2%, respectively). At the same time, QSR also saw an overall visit dip (-0.8%) while traffic to fast casual chains increased slightly (+0.3%) – suggesting that the fast casual segment is expanding more aggressively than QSR. But the two segments decoupled somewhat in May, with overall traffic and visits per venue to fast casual chains up YoY while traffic remained flat and visits per venue fell slightly for QSR – perhaps due to the relatively greater affluence of fast casual's consumer base.
Analyzing the income levels of visitors to the various dining segments over time shows that each segment followed a slightly different trend – and the differences in visitor income may help explain some of the current traffic patterns.
The only three segments with YoY visit growth – casual dining, fine dining, and coffee – also had the highest captured market median household income (HHI). Although the median HHI in the captured market of upscale and fine dining chains fell after COVID, it has risen back steadily over time and now stands at $98.0K – slightly higher than the $97.1K median HHI between January to May 2019. This may explain the segment's resilience in the face of wider consumer headwinds. Meanwhile, the median HHI at fast casual and coffee chains has fallen slightly, perhaps due to aggressive expansions in the space – including Dave's Hot Chicken and Dutch Bros – which likely broadened the reach of the segments, driving visits up and trade area median HHI down.
Like fine dining, casual dining also saw its trade area median HHI increase slightly over time – but the segment has still been facing visit dips. This could mean that, even though consumers trading down to casual dining may have boosted the trade area median HHI for the segment, it still might not have been enough to make up for the customers lost to tighter budgets.
The QSR segment saw its trade area median HHI remain remarkably steady – and visits to the segment have also been quite consistent – staying between $70.6K and $70.9K between 2019 and 2025 – which may explain why the segment's visits remained relatively stable YoY.
Diving into the psychographic segmentation shows that, although the fine dining segment attracted visitors from the highest-income areas between January and May 2025, fast casual chains drew the highest share of visitors from suburban areas, followed by casual dining and coffee. QSR attracted the smallest share of suburban visitors, with just 30.5% of the category's captured market between January and May 2025 belonging to Spatial.ai: PersonaLive suburban segments.
But looking at the data since 2019 reveals small but significant changes in the shares of suburban audiences in some categories' captured markets. And although the percentage changes are slight, these represent hundreds of thousands of diners every year.
The data shows that shares of suburban segments in the captured markets of fine dining chains have increased, while their share in the captured market of coffee chains has decreased. The shares of suburban visitors to QSR, fast casual, and casual chains have remained relatively steady.
This may suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent rise of remote and hybrid work models are still impacting consumer dining habits, benefiting destination-worthy experiences in suburban locales such as fine dining chains while reducing the necessity of daily coffee runs that were often tied to commuting and office work. Meanwhile, the stability in QSR, fast casual, and casual dining segments could indicate that these categories continue to meet consistent suburban demand for convenience and everyday dining, largely unaffected by the redistribution seen in the fine dining and coffee sectors.
Although QSR, fast casual, casual dining, fine dining, and coffee all fall under the wider dining umbrella, the data shows distinct consumer behavior patterns regarding visits to these five categories.
Limited service segments, including QSR, fast casual, and coffee tend to see higher shares of visits on weekdays, while full service segments – casual dining and fine dining – receive higher shares of weekend visits. Diving deeper shows that QSR has the largest share of weekday visits, with 72.3% of traffic coming in between Monday and Friday, followed by fast casual (69.8% of visits on weekdays) and coffee (69.4% of visits on weekdays.) Looking at trends within the work week shows that QSR receives a slightly larger visit share between Monday and Thursday compared to the other limited service segments. Meanwhile, coffee seems to receive the smallest share of Friday visits – 16.3% compared to 17.0% for fast casual and 17.2% for QSR.
On the full-service side, casual dining and fine dining chains have relatively similar shares of weekend visits (39.0% and 38.8%, respectively), but fine dining also sees an uptick of visits on Fridays (with 19.1% of weekly visits) as consumers choose to start the weekend on a festive note.
Hourly visit patterns also show variability between the segments. Coffee is the unsurprising leader of early visits, with 14.6% of visits taking place before 8 AM and, almost two-thirds (64.9%) of visits taking place before 2 PM. Fast casual leads the lunch rush (29.4% of visits between 11 AM and 2 PM), casual dining chains receive the largest share of afternoon (2 PM to 5 PM) visits, and fine dining chains receive the largest share of dinner visits, with almost 70% of visits taking place between 5 PM and 11 PM. QSR leads the late night visit share – 4.1% of visits take place between 11 PM and 5 AM – followed by casual dining chains (3.2% late night and overnight visit share), likely due to the popularity of 24-hour diners.
This suggests that each dining segment effectively "owns" a different part of the day, from the morning coffee ritual and the quick lunch break to the leisurely evening meal and late-night cravings.
An analysis of average visit duration also reveals a small but lasting shift in post-pandemic dining behavior. Between January and May 2025, the average dwell time for nearly every dining segment was shorter than during the same period in 2019. This efficiency trend is evident across limited-service categories like QSR, fast casual, and coffee shops, suggesting a continued emphasis on speed and convenience.
The one notable exception to this trend is upscale and fine dining, where the average visit duration has actually increased compared to pre-COVID levels. This may suggest that, while visits to most segments have become more transactional, consumers are treating fine dining more as an extended, deliberate experience, reinforcing its position as a destination-worthy occasion.
1. The Midwest is the only region where Black Friday retail visits outpace Super Saturday.
But several major Midwestern markets, including Chicago and Detroit, actually see higher shopper turnout on Super Saturday.
2. Holiday season demographic shifts also vary across regions.
Nationwide, electronics stores see a slight uptick in median household income (HHI) in December – yet in certain markets, electronics retailers such as Best Buy see a drop in captured market median HHI during this period.
3. Back-to-school shopping starts earliest for clothing and office supplies retailers in the South Central region, likely tied to earlier school schedules.
But back-to-school visits surge higher for these retailers in the Northeast later in the season.
4. The share of college students among back-to-school shoppers varies by region.
In August 2024, “Collegians” made up the largest share of Target’s back-to-school shopping crowd in New England, and the smallest in the West.
5. Mother’s Day drives the biggest restaurant visit spikes in the Middle Atlantic Region, while Father’s Day sees its biggest boosts in the South Atlantic states.
Mother’s Day diners also tend to travel farther to celebrate, suggesting an extra effort to treat mom.
6. Western states proved particularly responsive to McDonald’s recent Minecraft promotion.
During the week of A Minecraft Movie’s release, the promotion drove significantly higher visit spikes in the West than in the Eastern U.S.
Retailers rely on promotional events to fuel sales – from classics like Black Friday and back-to-school sales to unique limited-time offers (LTOs) and pop-culture collaborations. Yet consumer preferences and behavior can vary significantly by region, making it critical to tailor campaigns to local markets.
This report dives into the data to reveal how consumers in 2025 are responding to major retail promotions, exploring both broad regional trends and more localized market-level nuances. Where is Black Friday most popular, and which areas see a bigger turnout on Super Saturday? Where are restaurants most packed on Mother’s Day, and where on Father’s Day? Which region kicks off back-to-school shopping – and where are August shoppers most likely to be college students? And also – which part of the country went all out on McDonald’s recent Minecraft LTO?
Read on to find out.
Promotions aimed at boosting foot traffic on key holiday season milestones like Black Friday and Super Saturday are central to retailers’ strategies across industries. The day after Thanksgiving and the Saturday before Christmas typically rank among in-store retail’s busiest days, last year generating foot traffic surges of 50.1% and 56.3%, respectively, compared to a 12-month daily average. And
But a closer look at regional data shows that these promotions land differently across the country. In the Midwest, Black Friday outperformed Super Saturday last year, fueling the nation’s biggest post-Thanksgiving retail visit spike – a testament to the milestone’s strong local appeal. Meanwhile, in the Western U.S. Black Friday trailed well behind Super Saturday, though both milestones drove smaller upticks than in other regions. And in New England and the South Central states, Super Saturday achieved its biggest impact, suggesting that last-minute holiday specials may resonate especially well in that area.
Digging deeper into major Midwestern hubs shows that even within a single region, holiday promotions can produce widely different responses.
In St. Louis, Indianapolis, and Minneapolis, for example, consumers followed the broader Midwestern pattern, flocking to stores on Black Friday exhibiting less enthusiasm for Super Saturday deals. By contrast, Chicago and Detroit saw Super Saturday edge ahead, with Chicago’s Black Friday peak falling below the nationwide average of 50.1%. examples highlight the power of local preferences to shape holiday campaign results.
Holiday promotions don’t just drive visit spikes; they also spark subtle but significant changes in the demographic profiles of brick-and-mortar shoppers, expanding many retailers’ audiences during peak periods. And these shifts, too, can vary widely across regions.
Outlet malls, department stores, and beauty & self-care chains, for instance, which typically attract higher-income consumers, tend to see slight declines in the median household incomes (HHI) of their visitor bases in December. This dip may be due to promotions drawing in more mid- and lower-income shoppers during the peak holiday season. Electronics stores and superstores, on the other hand, which generally serve a less affluent base, see modest upticks in median HHI in the lead-up to Christmas.
But once again, drilling further down into regional chain-level data reveals more nuanced regional patterns. Take Best Buy, a leading holiday season electronics destination. In some of the chain’s biggest, more affluent markets – including New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago – the big-box retailer sees small dips in median HHI during December. But in Atlanta and Houston – also relatively affluent, but slightly less so – December saw a minor HHI uptick, hinting at a stronger holiday rush from higher-income shoppers in those cities.
Back-to-school promotions also play a pivotal role in the retail calendar, with superstores, apparel chains, office supply stores and others all vying for shopper attention. And though summer markdowns drive increased foot traffic nationwide, both the timing of these shifts and the composition of the back-to-school shopping crowd differ among regions.
Analyzing weekly fluctuations in regional foot traffic to clothing and office supplies stores shows, for example, that back-to-school shopping picks up earliest in the South Central region, likely due to earlier school start dates.
But the biggest visit peaks occur in the Northeast – with clothing retailer foot traffic surging in New England in late August, and office supplies stores seeing an even bigger surge in the Middle Atlantic region in early September. Retailers and advertisers can plan their back-to-school deals around these differences, targeting promotions to local trends.
Though K-12 families drive much of the back-to-school rush, college student shoppers also play a substantial role. And here, too, their participation varies by region.
For instance, the “Collegians” segment accounted for 2.2% of Target’s shopper base nationwide over the past year – rising to 3.0% in August 2024. But regionally, the share of “Collegians” soared as high as 4.0% in New England versus just 2.2% in the West. So while retailers in New England may choose to lean into the college vibe, those in Western states may place greater emphasis on families with children.
When it comes to dining, Mother’s Day and Father’s Day are the busiest days of the year for the full-service restaurant (FSR) category, as families treat their parents to a hassle-free meal out. And eateries nationwide capitalize on this trend by offering a variety of deals and promotions that add a little extra charm (and value) to the experience.
Nationwide, Mother’s Day drives more FSR foot traffic than Father’s Day – except in parts of the Pacific Northwest, where Father’s Day traditions run especially deep. Still, the size of these holiday boosts varies substantially by region.
This year, for instance, Mother’s Day (May 11, 2025) drove the largest FSR surge in the Middle Atlantic, with the South Atlantic and Midwest not far behind. Father’s Day, by contrast, saw its biggest lift in the South Atlantic. Mother’s Day proved least resonant in the West, whereas Father’s Day had its smallest impact in New England.
Dining behavior also differs between the two occasions. Mother’s Day celebrants display a slight preference for morning FSR visits and a bigger one for afternoon visits, while Father’s Day crowds favor evenings – perhaps reflecting a preference for sports bars and later dinners with dad. Another interesting nuance: On Mother’s Day, a larger share of FSR visits originate from between 3 and 50 miles away compared to Father’s Day, suggesting that families go the extra mile – sometimes literally – to celebrate mom.
While established dates like Black Friday or Mother’s Day naturally spur promotions, brands can also craft their own moments with limited-time offers (LTOs). And much like holiday campaigns, these retailer-led events can produce varied outcomes across different regions.
Fast food restaurants, for example, have leaned heavily on limited-time offers (LTOs) and pop-culture tie-ins to fuel buzz in what remains a challenging overall market. And McDonald’s recent Minecraft promotion, launched on April 1, 2025 to coincide with the April 3 release of A Minecraft Move, shows just how impactful the practice can be.
Nationally, the Minecraft promotion (featuring offerings for both kids and adults) drove a 6.9% lift in visits during the movie’s opening week. But the impact of the promotion was far from uniform across the U.S. Many of McDonald’s Western markets – including Utah, Idaho, Nevada, California, Texas, Arizona, Colorado, and Oregon – recorded visit lifts above 10.0%. Meanwhile, Kentucky saw a 2.1% dip, and several other Eastern states registered modest gains below 3.0%. The McDonald’s example illustrates the power of regional tastes to shape the success of even the most creative pop-culture collabs.
Whether it’s properly timing holiday and back-to-school discounts, recognizing where Mother’s Day or Father’s Day will resonate more, or pinpointing markets that respond best to pop-culture tie-ins, the data reveals that effective promotions depend heavily on local nuances. And by analyzing regional and DMA-level trends, retailers and advertisers can craft compelling, relevant campaigns that heighten engagement where it matters most.
